FEWS COUNTRY REPORT

Improving Conditions, Remaining Questions

1 - ­ ..... fl;o,D.Q, 20523

Price, WS.iliams & Associates, Inc. under contract to USAID Africa Bureau Famine Early Watning System (FEWS)

April 10, 1986 introduction:

Table or Contents: Page Map I...... I Summary ...... Food Production ...... 2 Food Need/Persons At-Risk...... 2 Retugees/Displaced Persons ...... 3 Food Distribution/Transport ...... 3 Maps ...... 5 Tab les ...... 7 MAP 1 CHAD: Summary Map 4/4/86

B.E.T. *ap: FEWS/AT

Poor Harvest Very Large At-Risk Population in 1984 Retevit

Lake ae itn Chad-' Q aBatha Potential Transport Problems Due to Early Rains ....Carl- i /J / (Abeche) B~~Caurimi. Baui m ? 121,000

Guera Displaced Mayo-Kebbi Chadians Ta_ndJil Moyen-

Logone Occidental? ? Logone 4 C, 1"' briental O 13,5042,000 13,500 Displaced Displaced Chadians Chadians C.A.R. ImprovinL Conditions; Remaining Questions 4/10/66

Summary: Overall crop production in Chad was well above average for the 1985 season. Potential problem areas do exist ,however, in the north due to locally poor rainfall, rebei activities, and transportation/distribution problems (see Map 1). FAO has estimated a country-wide emergency food need o 19,000mt; and 1966 food aid pledges and carryover stocks trom 1985 already total 53.000mt. The more than 175,000 displaced Chadians in neighboring countries will pose an additional problem iT they arr not resettled in time ror the May-June beginning of the planting season. A Tulane team-member has arrived in Chad recently. Future reports will contain data gathered by the Tulane representative, including data on "at-risk" persons, nutritional status, and special problem areas.

Food Production: According to the FAO, Chad had "exceptional surpluses in coarse grains". Total production is put at 690,000mt or 158% of the past-live-year average (see Table 1). All areas with data available show production increases in the 1985 season. In , despite a large increase in millet production over the 1984 harvest. 1965 production was still low compared to pre-1984 totals.

Livestock: The drought forced livestock oft traditional pastures in search of water and better grazing conditions. ]hese migrations brought herds unusually deep into the settled portions of eastern and southern Chad, and in some cases across inter­ national boundaries into Nigeria, Cameroon. and Sudan. The only available e~timfate of livestock loss is the 100.000 to 150.000 head figure given by FAO (see Table 2). Experience from other countries indicates that the actual loss was probably greater.

Food Need / Persons At-Risk: FAO recommends that deficit food needs can bE met with an addition::l 19.000mt of food aid. Some 53.000mt of food aid already have been pledged or are held over from the past year. This is well above the projected need. The USG has not received any request tor emergency commodities; and none is expected this year. Feeding stations in Chad are presently being disbanded. Due to the large surplus over (b0.00mt) and consequent drop in prices, some Chadian grain is being siphoned ott to richer neighboring countries. FAO has urged that 30,O00mt of the surplus grain be purchased for redistribution in the country. Along with the 53.00mt or pledged lood aid this would allow for a substantial reserve.

In spite or overall improvement in rood availability in Chad, potential problem areas still exist in the north. Due to low rainrall. production in Kanem was not as good as in normal years. Map 2 and Table 3 show estimated population and the distribution or "at-risk" populations during the 1984 drought. It is clear that Kanem was arfectLd severely by the drought. With another poor harvest during the rIl ot 1985, it is likely that much or the Kanem population remains at risK.

Problems also exist in the extreme north of the and Biltine Regions where there has been increasing rebel activity. WFP has shipped lOOmt 01 food to Kouba-Olanga in Batha and 150mt to Oum Chalouba-Kalait in Biltine in response to a request from the GCOC alter rebel raids decimated lood stores in the area.

Rerugees/iisplaced Persons: The north was hard-hit by drought last year, and many people migrated south or to the Sudan. A repatriation scheme tor those who had emigrated to Sudan was in progress prior to February, however the hostilities in northern or C:had have brought the program to a halt. Chadian reiugees in the Sudan now have been concentrated in the El Genina area. Additional emigration from the northern areas may occur this year ir recel activities in the region increaFre.

Since mid-164 at least 175.000 Chadians have Tled to other countries including 121.000 to the Sudan, z42,000 to the C.A.R. aria 13,50 to Cameroon (U.S. Committee on Relugees). Displaced persons arid refugees already are returning from the Central Arrican Republic at the rate or approximately 300 persons per week. Should large-scale repatriation occur lood aid may be needed in some areas. The pledged rood aid, along with the recommended purchase or local grains, shoula be surticient to meet such a need.

Food Distribution/Iransport: In March and early April heavy rains tell in parts or Chad and the C.A.R. The beginning or the rainy season in a normal year is May-Junhe. The early vains are making key roads in Ouaddai (Abeche) very ditticult to travel. This could atect rood deliveries to the rebel-plagued northeast and to persons in Sudan should such deliveries be needed.

3. Problems due to rains exist in the C.A.R. as well where some or the roads leading to Chad are becoming rutted and waterloggFd. This could hamper efforts to repatriate Chadians now based in the C.A.R. 1V repatriation is not completed during the planting season (May-June), it is reared that many Chadians will remain in the C.A.R. until next year. CHAD: Departments

.I -'B-E--

I B.,E. T. U'"1

, Eanem, Bi It ine

'. .- Batha Ouaddai - Chari- j Abehe

LBagu i r( i.

Mayo-Hebba~- i - G--- -UeraSa IamatJ Tanaj i e"Moyen- Map: FEWS/AT Chari H,:-E-'A Logonp Occ iclental-

LOrientalLogo neT- MAP 2 CHAD: 1984 Pecent - Population J-­

'IM- Risk" :I .. -­

I.•1

*Each Dct Equals .1% - ".

aii I.77

-o -P ,-'a• "• ," --- ' - - _74-- 1

..- . - " . -

3 I,.~ "~ -- 1 ,a : . .r ."A - •. . .+ ..

In a. Map: FEWS/AT ": "u',"Source: FAO, 1985 Table 1 Chad: Production of millet and sorghum, 1984 and estimated 1985.

Millet Production Sorghum Prod. Millet & Sorg. Pd. 1984/85 1985/85 194/85 1995/86 J984/85 1985/86 Regions (t) (t) (t) (t) (1) it) ------

Batha 326 12,900 1,160 1,575 Guera 3,560 16,400 3,680 33,915 Ouaddai(Abeche) 7,998 23,534 1,190 5,485 Biltine 165 10,500 71 1,123 Kanem i,COO 15,203 28 n.a. Chari-Baguirai 3,376 6,413 1,950 8,213 Lac 0 16,060 0 n.a. Salanat 517 2,122 2,743 3,704 Moyen-Chari 64,559 84,567 49,581 72,920 Logone Occidental 22,184 55,729 Tandjile 24,609 61,992 ayo-Kebbi 65,507 106,643 -.------...... ------

TOTALS 16,942 103,132 10,822 54,015 226,440 381,851

Souice: FAO: Assessment of the food, agriculture and livestock situation following the 1984 drought inChad. OSRO Report 16/84/E and FAO update for 1985/86 estizates.

7 Table 2 Chad: Patterns of Cattle Distribution, 1984-85.

Jan. 1984 Oct. 1984 Apr. 1985 Estimate Estimate Estimate Regions (000) (000) (000) ------Kanem 600 0 0 Lac 360 600 600 Batha 790 600 200 Guera 170 470 170 Biltine 180 20 0 Ouaddai 360 360 200 Salamat 240 300 350 Chair-Baguirmi 850 700 400 Mayo-Kebbi 285 90 450 Tandjile 130 45 150 Logone Occidental 45 60 60 Logone Oriental 60 60 160 Moyen-Chari 590 400 450 ------

TOTALS 4,660 3,705 3,190

Source: FAO: Assessment of the Food, Agriculture, and Livestock Situation Following the 1984 Drought, OSRO Report 16/84/E. Table 3 Chad: 1985 Estimated Population and Estimated Population "At-Risk" during the 1984/85 Drought.

1985 Population 1985 Pop. At-Risk % Regions Est. (000) Est. (000) At-Risk ...... ------Biltine 177 28.1 16 Ouaddai (Abeche) 383 31.4 8 Salamai 110 12.3 11 Batha 379 97.0 26 Chari-Baguirmi 564 26.5 5 Guera 211 18.8 9 Moyen-Chari 489 n.a. n.a. Lugone Oriental 328 n.a. n a. Lugone Occidental 289 25.1 9 Tandjile 320 86.7 27 Mayo-Kebbi 637 9.8 2 Lac 144 n.a. n.a. Kanem 218 165.9 76 B.E.T. 92 10.7 12 ...... ------

TOTALS 4341 512.2 .2

Source: Population estimates from FAO OSRO Report 16/84/E. "At-Risk" figures calculated using FAO and AID data (Foreign Trip Report 7/1/85).

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