Split Ballot - Shea-Porter Leads in Nh 1St , Bass in 2 Nd

THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER

July 29, 2010

SPLIT BALLOT - SHEA-PORTER LEADS IN NH 1ST , BASS IN 2 ND

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center 603/862-2226

DURHAM, NH – After trailing for months, Carol Shea-Porter now leads in the race to keep her seat in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District. In the Second Congressional District, former Republican Congressman Charlie Bass continues to lead both Democratic candidates as he attempts to regain the seat he lost in 2006.

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll ,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred four (504) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 19 and July 27, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent. Included was a subsample of 264 adults in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/-6.0%), and a subsample of 240 Second Congressional District adults (margin of sampling error +/-6.3%).

1st Congressional District

In New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces a difficult re-election fight. She continues to have low favorability ratings, and doesn’t break 50% against any of her Republican rivals, but she has improved on both of these indicators of reelection during the summer months.

Currently, 41% of adults in New Hampshire’s 1st CD have a favorable opinion of her, 35% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 24% are neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating remains low at +6%, but this is up from -7% in April.

Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter NH 1 st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% July Sep. Feb. Apr. July Sep. Feb. Apr. July Sep. Feb. Apr. June Oct. Feb. Apr. July '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10

Favorable Unfavorable

∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The 1 st CD is the more Republican of New Hampshire’s two Congressional districts and Shea-Porter has been perceived vulnerable in both her reelection fights in 2008 and in 2010. This has drawn several serious Republican challengers into the race. However, all Republican challengers are largely unknown to voters in the First District, and summer is a difficult time to boost visibility. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is still the best known Republican. Currently, 28% of 1st CD adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 17% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 55% are either neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Guinta’s net favorability rating is +11%, up from +4% in April.

Favorability Ratings – Frank Guinta NH 1 st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Apr. '09 June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

Rich Ashooh, an executive for BAE Systems in Nashua entered the race in February, but remains largely unknown to voters. In the most recent Granite State Poll, only 11% of 1 st CD adults say they have a favorable opinion of Ashooh, 3% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 86% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Ashooh’s net favorability rating is +8%.

Favorability Ratings – Rich Ashooh NH 1 st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

Portsmouth businessman, and former Republican National Committee member Sean Mahoney has had significant success raising money, but is also mostly unknown in the District. Currently, 14% have a favorable opinion of Mahoney, 9% have an unfavorable opinion, and 78% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Mahoney’s net favorability rating in the 1 st CD is +5%.

Favorability Ratings –Sean Mahoney NH 1 st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

Newmarket businessman Bob Bestani remains largely unknown in the First District compared with his better funded Republican rivals. Currently, only 4% of 1 st CD adults say they have a favorable opinion of Bestani, 3% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 94% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Bestani’s net favorability rating is +1%, unchanged since February.

Favorability Ratings – Bob Bestani NH 1 st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

Carol Shea-Porter, due to her improved favorability ratings and her opponents’ inability to raise their profiles during the summer, has taken small to moderate leads over her challengers in pre-election trial heats. It is important to point out that Shea-Porter does not break 50% against any of her challengers, a critical indicator of weakness for a Congressional incumbent.

In a matchup between Shea-Porter and her best known challenger, Frank Guinta, 44% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 39% say they will vote for Guinta, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 16% are undecided. Guinta had held leads over Shea-Porter in both the February and April Granite State Polls.

NH 1 st CD Race – Guinta (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60%

50% 44% 43% 42% 40% 38% 39% 30% 33%

20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Guinta Shea-Porter

In a matchup with Rich Ashooh, 43% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 35% would vote for Ashooh, and 22% are undecided.

NH 1 st CD Race – Ashooh (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60%

50% 43% 39% 40% 36%

30% 36% 33% 35%

20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Ashooh Shea-Porter

In a matchup with Sean Mahoney, 45% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 36% would vote for Mahoney, 1% prefer some other candidate and 18% are undecided.

NH 1 st CD Race – Mahoney (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60%

50% 45% 39% 40% 40%

37% 30% 36% 32% 20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Mahoney Shea-Porter

And in a matchup with Bob Bestani, 44% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 33% would vote for Bestani, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 22% are undecided.

NH 1 st CD Race – Bestani (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60%

50% 44% 38% 40% 36%

37% 30% 32% 33% 20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Bestani Shea-Porter

Congressional Favorability Ratings –NH 2 nd District

In New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District, Congressman Paul Hodes’ favorability ratings have remained unchanged since April. Currently, 37% of 2 nd CD adults have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 30% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 33% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Hodes’ net favorability stands at +7% in the Second District, up from +4% in April.

Favorability Ratings – Paul Hodes NH 2 nd District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

'04 05 '10 '04 '04 ' '05 '06 '06 '07 '08 '08 '09 '10 '10 . ly '05 . . '07 y '07 . y '08 . '09 . y u eb ep. pr ul eb. pr pr Apr July Sep. Jan. Apr. '05J Oct F Apr. '06July '06S Feb. A J Sep. '07F A Jul Sep. '08Feb. A June '09Oct. '09Feb. Apr Jul

Favorable Unfavorable

Former Congressman Charlie Bass, who held the 2 nd CD seat from 1994 until 2006 when he lost to Hodes, is running to regain the seat. Bass remains well known in the District, but his unfavorable ratings have increased sharply since his entry into the race. Currently, 34% of 2 nd CD adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 34% have an unfavorable of him, and 33% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Bass’ net favorability rating is 0% down significantly from +25% in February.

Favorability Ratings – Charlie Bass NH 2nd District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4 5 0 1 2 02 3 3 4 0 5 '0 6 6 6 7 7 9 09 '02 ' '03 '0 '04 '0 '0 '08 '08 ' '10 '1 . '0 . '0 r. r. ly '03 . '0 r. ly ' . y b . '0 . '0 r. ly '08 . . '0 r. '09 t. '09 . r. '10 y ct b p ne p ct. b p ul p p p ep b c eb O Fe A Ju Feb. A'0 Ju O Fe A Ju Sep. '04Jan Apr. '05J Oct. '05Fe Apr. '0JulySe '06 Feb. Apr.'07 '0JulySe '07 Feb. A'08 Ju S Fe Ap June O F Ap Jul

Favorable Unfavorable

Journalist Jennifer Horn, who lost to Hodes in 2008, is running again in 2010. Horn remains largely unknown among adults in the 2nd CD – 21% of 2nd CD adults have a favorable opinion of her, 11% have an unfavorable opinion, and 68% are neutral or don’t know enough to say. Horn’s net favorability is +10%, up from +5% in April.

Favorability Ratings – Jennifer Horn NH 2nd District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Apr. '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Feb. '09 Apr. '09 June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

A third Republican running is former State Representative Bob Guida. Guida remains unknown in the 2 nd CD with only 5% of 2 nd CD adults saying they have a favorable opinion of him, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, and 90% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Guida’s favorability ratings have remained largely unchanged since February.

Favorability Ratings – Bob Guida NH 2nd District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

On the Democratic side, Katrina Swett, who challenged Bass in 2002, is viewed favorably by 15% of 2nd CD adults, 20% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 65% are neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Swett’s net favorability rating is -5%, down from -1% in April.

Favorability Ratings – Katrina Swett NH 2nd District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Oct, '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

Concord attorney Ann McLane Kuster has been very successful fundraising for the 2 nd CD seat, but remains largely unknown to residents of the District. Currently, 10% of 2nd CD adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 2% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 88% are either neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Kuster’s net favorability rating is +8%.

Favorability Ratings – Ann McLane Kuster NH 2nd District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Favorable Unfavorable

The top two Republicans and top two Democrats in name recognition and finances were matched in trial heats in the most recent Granite State poll. In a hypothetical race between Charlie Bass and Katrina Swett, a rematch of their 2002 race, Bass currently is favored by 47% of 2 nd CD likely voters, 30% prefer Swett, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 21% are undecided. The margin in this race is unchanged since April.

NH 2nd CD Race – Bass (R) vs. Swett (D) 60% 47% 50% 44% 37% 40%

30% 30% 30% 27% 20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Bass Swett

And in a hypothetical matchup between Bass and Ann McLane Kuster, Bass is favored by 47% of 2 nd CD likely voters, 29% prefer Kuster, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 23% are undecided. This race has continued to widen since February.

NH 2nd CD Race – Bass (R) vs. Kuster (D) 60% 47% 50% 42% 39% 40%

30% 30% 28% 29% 20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Bass Kuster

When Jennifer Horn is matched against Kuster, Horn holds a very slim lead, 34% to 32%, and 34% are undecided. This race remains unchanged since April.

NH 2nd CD Race – Horn (R) vs. Kuster (D) 60%

50%

40% 33% 34% 28% 30% 32% 32% 20% 25%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Horn Kuster

And in a matchup between Horn and Swett, Horn leads Swett by 35% to 31% with 34% undecided. This race also remains unchanged since April.

NH 2nd CD Race – Horn (R) vs. Swett (D) 60%

50%

40% 35% 35%

30% 26% 30% 31% 31% 20%

10%

0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10

Horn Swett

Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Carol Shea-Porter - NH 1 st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 41% 7% 35% 17% +6% (270) Apr. ‘10 37% 7% 44% 12% -7% (257) Feb. ‘10 35% 7% 40% 19% -5% (251) Oct. ‘09 42% 7% 31% 20% +11% (248) Jun. ‘09 41% 8% 30% 21% +11% (287) Apr. ‘09 38% 4% 35% 23% +3% (260) Feb. ‘09 38% 10% 26% 27% +12% (311) Sep. ‘08 44% 5% 31% 20% +13% (251) July ‘08 35% 9% 32% 24% +3% (235) Apr. ‘08 39% 12% 28% 21% +11% (251) Feb. ‘08 43% 13% 17% 26% +26% (267) Sept. ‘07 33% 17% 21% 29% +12% (228) July ‘07 39% 15% 18% 28% +21% (252) Apr. ‘07 42% 15% 20% 24% +22% (251) Feb. ‘07 40% 17% 15% 28% +25% (248) Sept. ‘06 16% 14% 5% 65% +11% (266) July ‘06 7% 7% 0% 86% +7% (256)

Favorability Rating – Rich Ashooh - NH 1 st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businessman Rich Ashooh?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 11% 5% 3% 81% +8% (262) Apr. ‘10 4% 8% 2% 86% +2% (256) Feb. ‘10 4% 6% 0% 90% +4% (233)

Favorability Rating – Bob Bestani - NH 1 st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businessman Bob Bestani?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 4% 4% 3% 90% +1% (262) Apr. ‘10 2% 6% 3% 88% -1% (255) Feb. ‘10 1% 6% 2% 92% -1% (251)

∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Favorability Rating – Frank Guinta - NH 1 st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 28% 9% 17% 46% +11% (264) Apr. ‘10 22% 7% 18% 52% +4% (257) Feb. ‘10 23% 7% 14% 55% +9% (251) Oct. ‘09 28% 9% 11% 52% +17% (251) April ‘09 30% 12% 8% 51% +22% (260)

Favorability Rating – Sean Mahoney - NH 1 st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businessman Sean Mahoney?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 14% 4% 9% 74% +5% (264) Apr. ‘10 6% 7% 7% 79% -1% (256) Feb. ‘10 5% 7% 3% 85% +2% (251) Oct. ‘09 6% 7% 2% 85% +4% (251)

US House First Congressional District – Ashooh vs. Shea-Porter “And if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Rich Ashooh, the Republican, and Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Ashooh 36% 39% 35% Shea-Porter 33% 36% 43% Other 3% * * Don’t know / undecided 28% 25% 22% (N=) (168) (227) (237)

US House First Congressional District – Bestani vs. Shea-Porter “And if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Bob Bestani, the Republican, and Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July’ 10 Bestani 36% 38% 33% Shea-Porter 32% 37% 44% Other 2% 1% 1% Don’t know / undecided 30% 25% 22% (N=) (167) (229) (236)

US House First Congressional District – Guinta vs. Shea-Porter “Now, if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Frank Guinta, the Republican, and Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Guinta 43% 42% 39% Shea-Porter 33% 38% 44% Other 2% 1% 1% Don’t know / undecided 22% 19% 16% (N=) (168) (225) (238)

US House First Congressional District – Mahoney vs. Shea-Porter “And if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Sean Mahoney, the Republican, and Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Mahoney 39% 40% 36% Shea-Porter 32% 37% 45% Other 1% * 1% Don’t know / undecided 28% 23% 18% (N=) (166) (227) (238)

Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Paul Hodes - NH 2 nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congressman Paul Hodes.” (Respondents were asked about Concord Attorney Paul Hodes from April 2004 to September 2006.)

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) July ‘10 37% 11% 30% 23% (240) Apr. ‘10 35% 7% 31% 27% (253) Feb. ‘10 40% 9% 24% 27% (246) Oct. ‘09 38% 6% 27% 29% (250) Jun. ‘09 42% 7% 23% 28% (265) Apr. ‘09 41% 9% 20% 30% (238) Feb. ‘09 46% 14% 13% 27% (308) Sep. ‘08 28% 10% 22% 40% (271) July ‘08 42% 11% 16% 31% (238) Apr. ‘08 38% 16% 18% 27% (247) Feb. ‘08 37% 18% 18% 27% (287) Sept. ‘07 35% 15% 16% 34% (278) July ‘07 34% 8% 21% 36% (254) Apr. ‘07 34% 13% 18% 36% (264) Feb. ‘07 28% 18% 14% 39% (286) Sept. ‘06 11% 17% 6% 66% (248) July ‘06 11% 9% 4% 77% (246) Apr. ‘06 10% 6% 4% 81% (235) Feb. ‘06 10% 11% 1% 78% (232) Oct. ‘05 7% 7% 4% 83% (230) July ‘04 8% 8% 2% 81% (238) Apr. ‘04 6% 7% 2% 86% (271)

Favorability Rating –Charlie Bass – NH 2 nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Former Congressman Charlie Bass?" (U.S. Representative prior to 2009.)

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 34% 6% 34% 27% 0% (226) Apr. ‘10 32% 9% 25% 33% +7% (251) Feb. ‘10 44% 6% 19% 31% +25% (241) Oct. ‘09 39% 10% 22% 28% +17% (250)

Sept. ‘06 48% 12% 27% 13% +21% (248) July ‘06 58% 10% 18% 13% +40% (246) Apr. ‘06 49% 12% 20% 19% +29% (233) Feb. ‘06 51% 18% 19% 13% +32% (232) Oct. ‘05 49% 12% 25% 14% +24% (226) July ‘05 50% 13% 20% 17% +30% (232) July ‘04 55% 12% 14% 19% +41% (238) Apr. ‘04 54% 12% 16% 17% +38% (274) Feb. ‘04 45% 12% 23% 20% +22% (265) Oct. ‘03 59% 10% 17% 14% +42% (259) June ‘03 54% 14% 15% 17% +39% (241) Apr. ‘03 49% 11% 13% 27% +36% (238) Feb. ‘03 59% 7% 19% 16% +40% (318) June ‘02 53% 15% 18% 15% +35% (306) Apr. ‘02 52% 11% 18% 29% +34% (333) Feb. ‘02 59% 9% 16% 27% +43% (265) Oct. ‘01 56% 13% 15% 27% +41% (353)

Favorability Rating – Bob Guida - NH 2 nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Former State Representative Bob Guida?”

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 5% 2% 4% 88% +1% (226) Apr. ‘10 6% 7% 7% 81% -1% (250) Feb. ‘10 3% 3% 3% 90% 0% (241)

Favorability Rating – Jennifer Horn - NH 2 nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Journalist Jennifer Horn?”

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 21% 3% 11% 65% +10% (226) Apr. ‘10 20% 6% 15% 59% +5% (252) Feb. ‘10 15% 7% 9% 68% +6% (241) Oct. ‘09 15% 7% 10% 70% +5% (250)

Sep. ‘08 16% 7% 12% 65% +4% (271) July ‘08 9% 11% 4% 77% +5% (238) Apr. ‘08 7% 14% 2% 77% +5% (248)

Favorability Rating – Katrina Swett – NH 2 nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businesswoman Katrina Swett?" (U.S. Representative prior to 2009.)

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 15% 7% 20% 58% -5% (226) Apr. ‘10 13% 7% 14% 66% -1% (252) Feb. ‘10 16% 5% 13% 67% +3% (241) Oct. ‘09 12% 10% 17% 61% -5% (251)

June ‘02 20% 7% 16% 56% +4% (250)

Favorability Rating – Ann McLane Kuster - NH 2 nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Attorney Ann McLane Kuster?”

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) July ‘10 10% 3% 2% 85% +8% (226) Apr. ‘10 8% 7% 4% 81% +4% (250) Feb. ‘10 8% 2% 3% 87% +5% (240) Oct. ‘09 6% 5% 2% 87% +4% (252)

US House Second Congressional District – Bass vs. Kuster “Now, if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Charlie Bass, the Republican, and Ann McLane Kuster, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Bass 39% 42% 47% Kuster 28% 30% 29% Other 1% 1% 1% Don’t know / undecided 32% 27% 23% (N=) (174) (231) (197)

US House Second Congressional District – Bass vs. Swett “And if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Charlie Bass, the Republican, and Katrina Swett, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Bass 37% 44% 47% Swett 30% 27% 30% Other 1% 1% 1% Don’t know / undecided 33% 29% 21% (N=) (172) (228) (196)

US House Second Congressional District – Horn vs. Kuster “And if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Horn, the Republican, and Ann McLane Kuster, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Horn 28% 33% 34% Kuster 25% 32% 32% Other 3% * * Don’t know / undecided 44% 35% 34% (N=) (172) (230) (198)

US House Second Congressional District – Horn vs. Swett “And if the 2010 Election for Congress was being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Horn, the Republican, and Katrina Swett, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES

Feb. ’10 Apr. ’10 July ‘10 Horn 26% 35% 35% Swett 30% 31% 31% Other 0% 0% 1% Don’t know / undecided 43% 34% 33% (N=) (168) (224) (198)

US House – Frank Guinta vs. Carol Shea-Porter – Likely Voters

Guinta Shea-Porter Other DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 39% 44% 1% 16% 238

Registered Democrat 5% 83% 3% 9% 61 Registered Undeclared 34% 43% 0% 23% 105 Registered Republican 79% 9% 1% 11% 64

Democrat 5% 84% 2% 10% 96 Independent 31% 35% 0% 35% 48 Republican 79% 7% 1% 14% 92

Liberal 2% 87% 2% 9% 54 Moderate 30% 46% 0% 24% 105 Conservative 82% 8% 1% 9% 73

Definitely decided vote 34% 59% 4% 4% 33 Leaning toward someone 58% 39% 0% 3% 48 Still trying to decide 34% 43% 1% 22% 154

Union household 44% 41% 0% 15% 37 Non-union 38% 44% 1% 17% 200

10 yrs or less in NH 34% 48% 0% 17% 43 11 to 20 years 40% 33% 2% 26% 47 More than 20 years 40% 46% 1% 13% 147

18 to 34 19% 62% 0% 19% 17 35 to 49 41% 37% 2% 20% 56 50 to 64 38% 48% 1% 13% 90 65 and over 43% 41% 1% 15% 73

Male 50% 32% 2% 16% 116 Female 28% 56% 0% 16% 123

High school or less 29% 48% 3% 20% 37 Some college 36% 48% 0% 16% 61 College graduate 54% 30% 1% 15% 82 Post-graduate 27% 57% 0% 16% 57

Less than $30K 37% 47% 2% 14% 23 $30K to $60K 35% 54% 2% 10% 41 $60K to $75K 31% 53% 0% 16% 22 $75K to $100K 28% 57% 0% 15% 32 $100K or more 45% 29% 2% 24% 62

Married 44% 40% 1% 15% 176 Divorced/separated 26% 52% 3% 19% 39 Never married 14% 63% 0% 23% 19

Protestant 39% 42% 1% 19% 76 Catholic 52% 33% 1% 15% 94 Other 19% 63% 2% 15% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 45% 38% 0% 17% 75 1-2 times a month 46% 43% 0% 11% 33 Less often 45% 38% 1% 16% 56 Never 23% 57% 3% 17% 71

North Country 20% 70% 0% 10% 29 Central / Lakes 21% 54% 2% 23% 27 Mass Border 60% 21% 2% 18% 48 Seacoast 32% 47% 2% 20% 73 Manchester Area 47% 43% 0% 11% 61

US House – Rich Ashooh vs. Carol Shea-Porter – Likely Voters

Ashooh Shea-Porter Other DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 35% 43% 0% 22% 237

Registered Democrat 8% 84% 0% 8% 61 Registered Undeclared 32% 40% 0% 28% 105 Registered Republican 70% 8% 1% 21% 63

Democrat 4% 84% 0% 12% 96 Independent 27% 34% 0% 40% 48 Republican 74% 4% 1% 22% 91

Liberal 5% 90% 0% 5% 54 Moderate 23% 44% 0% 33% 103 Conservative 77% 6% 1% 17% 73

Definitely decided vote 28% 61% 2% 9% 33 Leaning toward someone 56% 40% 0% 3% 47 Still trying to decide 31% 40% 0% 29% 155

Union household 36% 43% 0% 21% 35 Non-union 35% 42% 0% 22% 201

10 yrs or less in NH 34% 47% 0% 19% 43 11 to 20 years 44% 32% 0% 24% 47 More than 20 years 33% 44% 0% 22% 146

18 to 34 16% 65% 0% 19% 17 35 to 49 39% 38% 0% 23% 56 50 to 64 32% 46% 1% 21% 89 65 and over 42% 37% 0% 21% 73

Male 44% 33% 0% 23% 114 Female 27% 52% 0% 21% 123

High school or less 32% 41% 0% 27% 37 Some college 37% 47% 0% 16% 61 College graduate 45% 31% 0% 23% 80 Post-graduate 22% 55% 1% 22% 57

Less than $30K 36% 47% 0% 17% 23 $30K to $60K 29% 52% 0% 18% 41 $60K to $75K 28% 49% 0% 23% 22 $75K to $100K 32% 59% 0% 9% 32 $100K or more 46% 31% 0% 24% 62

Married 42% 38% 0% 20% 174 Divorced/separated 25% 51% 0% 23% 39 Never married 7% 66% 0% 27% 19

Protestant 36% 41% 0% 22% 77 Catholic 50% 29% 1% 21% 92 Other 15% 65% 0% 19% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 48% 33% 0% 19% 75 1-2 times a month 44% 39% 2% 15% 33 Less often 38% 40% 0% 22% 55 Never 18% 57% 0% 24% 71

North Country 12% 70% 0% 18% 29 Central / Lakes 10% 50% 0% 40% 27 Mass Border 52% 18% 0% 30% 48 Seacoast 32% 51% 0% 17% 73 Manchester Area 49% 35% 1% 15% 59

US House – Sean Mahoney vs. Carol Shea-Porter – Likely Voters

Mahoney Shea-Porter Other DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 36% 45% 1% 18% 238

Registered Democrat 7% 83% 0% 9% 61 Registered Undeclared 33% 44% 0% 24% 105 Registered Republican 70% 12% 2% 16% 64

Democrat 6% 85% 0% 10% 96 Independent 26% 35% 0% 39% 48 Republican 74% 9% 1% 16% 92

Liberal 2% 89% 0% 9% 54 Moderate 29% 47% 0% 24% 105 Conservative 73% 10% 2% 16% 73

Definitely decided vote 32% 61% 2% 5% 33 Leaning toward someone 55% 42% 0% 3% 48 Still trying to decide 32% 43% 0% 25% 154

Union household 40% 45% 0% 15% 37 Non-union 36% 45% 1% 19% 200

10 yrs or less in NH 34% 47% 0% 20% 43 11 to 20 years 35% 43% 2% 20% 47 More than 20 years 37% 44% 0% 18% 147

18 to 34 16% 65% 0% 19% 17 35 to 49 39% 39% 0% 21% 56 50 to 64 31% 49% 1% 18% 90 65 and over 45% 39% 0% 15% 73

Male 45% 36% 1% 18% 116 Female 28% 54% 0% 18% 123

High school or less 26% 45% 2% 27% 37 Some college 34% 50% 0% 15% 61 College graduate 52% 31% 0% 18% 82 Post-graduate 23% 59% 1% 17% 57

Less than $30K 36% 47% 0% 17% 23 $30K to $60K 32% 46% 2% 21% 41 $60K to $75K 28% 56% 0% 16% 22 $75K to $100K 33% 60% 0% 7% 32 $100K or more 45% 34% 0% 21% 62

Married 42% 41% 0% 17% 176 Divorced/separated 24% 53% 2% 21% 39 Never married 7% 66% 0% 27% 19

Protestant 35% 45% 0% 20% 76 Catholic 51% 31% 1% 17% 94 Other 15% 66% 0% 19% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 37% 0% 16% 75 1-2 times a month 35% 52% 2% 11% 33 Less often 46% 37% 0% 17% 56 Never 17% 58% 1% 25% 71

North Country 20% 70% 0% 10% 29 Central / Lakes 14% 57% 0% 30% 27 Mass Border 55% 17% 2% 26% 48 Seacoast 32% 49% 0% 19% 73 Manchester Area 44% 45% 1% 10% 61

US House – Bob Bestani vs. Carol Shea-Porter – Likely Voters

Bestani Shea-Porter Other DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 33% 44% 1% 22% 236

Registered Democrat 5% 85% 0% 10% 59 Registered Undeclared 31% 41% 0% 29% 105 Registered Republican 66% 12% 2% 20% 64

Democrat 4% 83% 0% 13% 96 Independent 23% 35% 0% 42% 48 Republican 70% 7% 1% 22% 90

Liberal 2% 89% 0% 9% 54 Moderate 22% 46% 0% 32% 105 Conservative 76% 6% 2% 17% 71

Definitely decided vote 28% 61% 2% 10% 33 Leaning toward someone 55% 41% 0% 3% 48 Still trying to decide 28% 41% 0% 30% 152

Union household 39% 41% 0% 20% 37 Non-union 32% 44% 1% 23% 198

10 yrs or less in NH 31% 50% 0% 20% 43 11 to 20 years 35% 39% 2% 24% 47 More than 20 years 33% 43% 0% 23% 144

18 to 34 16% 65% 0% 19% 17 35 to 49 37% 42% 0% 22% 56 50 to 64 30% 46% 1% 22% 89 65 and over 39% 37% 0% 24% 72

Male 44% 33% 1% 23% 116 Female 23% 55% 0% 22% 120

High school or less 31% 42% 2% 24% 36 Some college 28% 51% 0% 20% 60 College graduate 46% 31% 0% 23% 82 Post-graduate 21% 55% 1% 23% 57

Less than $30K 36% 47% 0% 17% 23 $30K to $60K 29% 47% 2% 22% 41 $60K to $75K 28% 49% 0% 23% 22 $75K to $100K 23% 68% 0% 9% 32 $100K or more 45% 31% 0% 25% 62

Married 40% 41% 0% 19% 173 Divorced/separated 20% 48% 2% 30% 39 Never married 7% 66% 0% 27% 19

Protestant 34% 40% 0% 26% 77 Catholic 46% 34% 1% 19% 91 Other 15% 63% 0% 21% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 44% 37% 0% 19% 72 1-2 times a month 39% 41% 2% 19% 33 Less often 37% 41% 0% 22% 57 Never 18% 56% 1% 25% 71

North Country 12% 70% 0% 18% 29 Central / Lakes 10% 50% 0% 40% 27 Mass Border 56% 18% 1% 25% 48 Seacoast 30% 49% 0% 21% 73 Manchester Area 39% 44% 1% 16% 58 Favorability Rating – Rep. Carol Shea-Porter

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 41% 7% 35% 17% 270

Likely Voter 44% 6% 36% 14% 245 Non-Likely Voter 15% 12% 25% 48% 25

Registered Democrat 76% 2% 10% 12% 67 Registered Undeclared 42% 12% 33% 13% 116 Registered Republican 9% 4% 65% 22% 66

Democrat 73% 6% 9% 12% 111 Independent 40% 10% 25% 26% 56 Republican 7% 5% 71% 16% 99

Liberal 84% 6% 3% 8% 60 Moderate 45% 9% 29% 17% 115 Conservative 6% 4% 73% 17% 80

Union household 37% 7% 44% 12% 39 Non-union 42% 7% 34% 17% 230

10 yrs or less in NH 35% 11% 32% 22% 49 11 to 20 years 38% 2% 44% 16% 53 More than 20 years 44% 7% 34% 15% 166

18 to 34 41% 12% 21% 26% 28 35 to 49 36% 10% 35% 18% 63 50 to 64 47% 4% 33% 16% 96 65 and over 40% 6% 42% 12% 80

Male 33% 5% 45% 17% 129 Female 49% 8% 26% 17% 141

High school or less 35% 10% 31% 24% 48 Some college 43% 8% 36% 13% 68 College graduate 32% 4% 48% 16% 90 Post-graduate 58% 6% 19% 16% 62

Less than $30K 46% 2% 27% 24% 28 $30K to $60K 51% 4% 31% 15% 47 $60K to $75K 59% 4% 34% 3% 22 $75K to $100K 52% 6% 25% 17% 34 $100K or more 38% 8% 39% 15% 66

Married 38% 8% 38% 16% 194 Divorced/separated 50% 7% 28% 16% 44 Never married 55% 2% 22% 22% 28

Protestant 43% 10% 31% 16% 85 Catholic 29% 4% 50% 17% 100 Other 57% 6% 19% 18% 77

Attend services 1 or more/week 35% 9% 40% 16% 78 1-2 times a month 43% 0% 48% 9% 36 Less often 33% 4% 41% 22% 65 Never 54% 8% 20% 18% 84

North Country 61% 11% 19% 9% 30 Central / Lakes 51% 6% 17% 25% 38 Mass Border 13% 14% 49% 24% 52 Seacoast 51% 4% 32% 13% 81 Manchester Area 37% 3% 45% 15% 70

Favorability Rating – Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 28% 9% 17% 46% 264

Likely Voter 28% 9% 17% 46% 240 Non-Likely Voter 26% 9% 15% 51% 24

Registered Democrat 16% 5% 34% 42% 66 Registered Undeclared 21% 9% 13% 57% 112 Registered Republican 49% 10% 7% 34% 66

Democrat 19% 6% 26% 49% 105 Independent 11% 16% 13% 57% 56 Republican 47% 7% 10% 36% 99

Liberal 13% 6% 28% 53% 57 Moderate 27% 12% 14% 46% 112 Conservative 41% 8% 11% 40% 80

Union household 31% 10% 24% 36% 39 Non-union 27% 8% 16% 48% 224

10 yrs or less in NH 17% 12% 14% 53% 50 11 to 20 years 22% 1% 24% 53% 53 More than 20 years 33% 10% 16% 41% 158

18 to 34 14% 6% 30% 50% 26 35 to 49 24% 8% 16% 52% 62 50 to 64 25% 9% 18% 46% 95 65 and over 39% 10% 12% 40% 78

Male 35% 8% 12% 44% 129 Female 20% 9% 22% 49% 135

High school or less 34% 7% 18% 41% 45 Some college 18% 10% 18% 54% 68 College graduate 36% 7% 17% 38% 90 Post-graduate 21% 11% 15% 53% 59

Less than $30K 22% 8% 14% 56% 27 $30K to $60K 31% 5% 14% 50% 46 $60K to $75K 18% 21% 20% 41% 22 $75K to $100K 25% 8% 24% 43% 32 $100K or more 33% 9% 13% 43% 67

Married 28% 10% 15% 46% 189 Divorced/separated 27% 8% 18% 47% 43 Never married 21% 2% 33% 44% 27

Protestant 27% 12% 10% 49% 82 Catholic 33% 9% 17% 40% 100 Other 20% 5% 26% 50% 74

Attend services 1 or more/week 33% 12% 13% 42% 78 1-2 times a month 30% 9% 9% 52% 35 Less often 34% 5% 14% 44% 64 Never 15% 8% 28% 49% 81

North Country 29% 12% 7% 53% 30 Central / Lakes 26% 7% 6% 62% 30 Mass Border 31% 9% 14% 47% 52 Seacoast 15% 9% 19% 54% 82 Manchester Area 40% 6% 26% 27% 70 Favorability Rating – Businessman Bob Bestani

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 4% 4% 3% 90% 262

Likely Voter 4% 4% 2% 90% 238 Non-Likely Voter 2% 4% 7% 87% 24

Registered Democrat 4% 3% 3% 91% 64 Registered Undeclared 5% 7% 2% 86% 112 Registered Republican 3% 2% 1% 94% 66

Democrat 2% 2% 3% 93% 105 Independent 0% 11% 1% 88% 54 Republican 7% 3% 3% 87% 99

Liberal 1% 6% 3% 90% 57 Moderate 2% 4% 2% 92% 110 Conservative 9% 4% 3% 84% 80

Union household 7% 0% 3% 90% 39 Non-union 3% 5% 2% 90% 222

10 yrs or less in NH 8% 6% 3% 83% 49 11 to 20 years 2% 1% 7% 90% 53 More than 20 years 3% 5% 1% 91% 158

18 to 34 0% 6% 7% 88% 26 35 to 49 3% 8% 0% 89% 62 50 to 64 7% 3% 3% 87% 93 65 and over 2% 2% 2% 94% 78

Male 4% 6% 2% 87% 127 Female 3% 3% 3% 92% 135

High school or less 4% 4% 5% 87% 45 Some college 2% 3% 1% 94% 68 College graduate 4% 4% 1% 91% 88 Post-graduate 6% 6% 3% 84% 59

Less than $30K 2% 2% 0% 96% 27 $30K to $60K 4% 2% 5% 89% 46 $60K to $75K 8% 16% 0% 76% 22 $75K to $100K 4% 0% 1% 95% 32 $100K or more 6% 7% 2% 85% 65

Married 4% 6% 2% 89% 188 Divorced/separated 4% 0% 4% 93% 43 Never married 4% 0% 6% 89% 27

Protestant 1% 4% 3% 92% 80 Catholic 8% 3% 1% 88% 100 Other 1% 6% 4% 88% 74

Attend services 1 or more/week 7% 0% 0% 93% 78 1-2 times a month 0% 9% 7% 85% 35 Less often 3% 6% 1% 90% 62 Never 3% 5% 5% 87% 81

North Country 4% 0% 2% 93% 30 Central / Lakes 4% 4% 3% 89% 30 Mass Border 2% 5% 5% 88% 52 Seacoast 4% 6% 2% 88% 81 Manchester Area 4% 3% 2% 91% 70 Favorability Rating – Businessman Sean Mahoney

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 14% 4% 9% 74% 264

Likely Voter 15% 3% 8% 74% 240 Non-Likely Voter 0% 4% 19% 77% 24

Registered Democrat 9% 4% 11% 76% 66 Registered Undeclared 8% 3% 8% 81% 112 Registered Republican 28% 4% 3% 64% 66

Democrat 4% 3% 14% 79% 105 Independent 8% 8% 0% 84% 56 Republican 28% 1% 8% 63% 99

Liberal 4% 8% 12% 77% 57 Moderate 13% 4% 6% 77% 112 Conservative 23% 1% 10% 66% 80

Union household 25% 5% 4% 66% 39 Non-union 12% 3% 9% 76% 224

10 yrs or less in NH 14% 2% 4% 80% 50 11 to 20 years 11% 3% 13% 73% 53 More than 20 years 15% 4% 9% 72% 158

18 to 34 0% 6% 11% 83% 26 35 to 49 15% 2% 0% 84% 62 50 to 64 15% 6% 10% 69% 95 65 and over 15% 2% 12% 71% 78

Male 20% 2% 8% 70% 129 Female 8% 5% 9% 78% 135

High school or less 11% 1% 12% 76% 45 Some college 8% 5% 8% 79% 68 College graduate 21% 2% 4% 72% 90 Post-graduate 10% 6% 14% 70% 59

Less than $30K 0% 2% 3% 95% 27 $30K to $60K 15% 0% 11% 75% 46 $60K to $75K 14% 16% 1% 68% 22 $75K to $100K 8% 6% 8% 78% 32 $100K or more 23% 1% 9% 67% 67

Married 16% 3% 9% 72% 189 Divorced/separated 7% 7% 6% 80% 43 Never married 4% 0% 11% 85% 27

Protestant 15% 4% 12% 69% 82 Catholic 18% 3% 5% 74% 100 Other 5% 4% 9% 82% 74

Attend services 1 or more/week 16% 4% 7% 74% 78 1-2 times a month 15% 4% 18% 62% 35 Less often 20% 2% 2% 76% 64 Never 3% 5% 12% 79% 81

North Country 15% 0% 20% 65% 30 Central / Lakes 8% 4% 10% 78% 30 Mass Border 16% 7% 6% 71% 52 Seacoast 12% 4% 6% 78% 82 Manchester Area 16% 1% 8% 75% 70

Favorability Rating – Businessman Rich Ashooh

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 11% 5% 3% 81% 262

Likely Voter 11% 5% 3% 81% 238 Non-Likely Voter 7% 6% 5% 82% 24

Registered Democrat 8% 3% 4% 85% 64 Registered Undeclared 8% 6% 3% 83% 112 Registered Republican 19% 5% 1% 74% 66

Democrat 5% 4% 3% 88% 105 Independent 6% 9% 0% 85% 54 Republican 20% 4% 5% 71% 99

Liberal 4% 6% 5% 85% 57 Moderate 9% 6% 2% 84% 110 Conservative 20% 2% 4% 74% 80

Union household 7% 3% 6% 83% 39 Non-union 11% 5% 2% 81% 222

10 yrs or less in NH 2% 6% 6% 86% 49 11 to 20 years 20% 0% 4% 77% 53 More than 20 years 11% 6% 2% 81% 158

18 to 34 7% 6% 6% 82% 26 35 to 49 14% 4% 2% 79% 62 50 to 64 10% 3% 2% 85% 93 65 and over 11% 7% 2% 79% 78

Male 15% 5% 2% 78% 127 Female 7% 5% 3% 84% 135

High school or less 6% 5% 4% 85% 45 Some college 9% 5% 4% 83% 68 College graduate 18% 2% 2% 77% 88 Post-graduate 6% 9% 2% 82% 59

Less than $30K 2% 2% 0% 96% 27 $30K to $60K 7% 0% 4% 89% 46 $60K to $75K 14% 16% 0% 69% 22 $75K to $100K 10% 1% 4% 84% 32 $100K or more 16% 7% 1% 76% 65

Married 13% 6% 3% 78% 188 Divorced/separated 4% 3% 2% 91% 43 Never married 9% 0% 5% 86% 27

Protestant 3% 6% 4% 87% 80 Catholic 20% 6% 2% 72% 100 Other 8% 3% 4% 86% 74

Attend services 1 or more/week 21% 3% 0% 75% 78 1-2 times a month 10% 11% 5% 74% 35 Less often 9% 6% 4% 82% 62 Never 3% 4% 4% 89% 81

North Country 0% 0% 2% 98% 30 Central / Lakes 0% 10% 7% 83% 30 Mass Border 18% 5% 1% 76% 52 Seacoast 1% 5% 2% 91% 81 Manchester Area 26% 5% 3% 66% 70 US House – Charlie Bass vs. Ann McClane Kuster – Likely Voters

Bass Kuster Other DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 47% 29% 1% 23% 197

Registered Democrat 13% 70% 0% 17% 46 Registered Undeclared 46% 24% 2% 28% 78 Registered Republican 77% 5% 0% 18% 62

Democrat 20% 54% 0% 25% 89 Independent 50% 19% 4% 26% 28 Republican 77% 4% 0% 19% 77

Liberal 7% 73% 0% 20% 43 Moderate 44% 29% 1% 26% 83 Conservative 79% 3% 0% 19% 62

Definitely decided vote 39% 58% 0% 2% 31 Leaning toward someone 48% 26% 0% 26% 34 Still trying to decide 50% 22% 1% 27% 129

Union household 24% 53% 0% 23% 22 Non-union 50% 26% 1% 23% 173

10 yrs or less in NH 43% 17% 3% 37% 38 11 to 20 years 28% 50% 0% 22% 33 More than 20 years 54% 27% 0% 19% 126

18 to 34 55% 38% 0% 7% 19 35 to 49 55% 11% 0% 34% 40 50 to 64 35% 38% 2% 25% 76 65 and over 55% 26% 0% 19% 62

Male 45% 27% 1% 27% 97 Female 50% 31% 0% 20% 100

High school or less 65% 11% 0% 24% 35 Some college 53% 26% 0% 21% 42 College graduate 52% 24% 2% 21% 64 Post-graduate 27% 47% 0% 26% 53

Less than $30K 47% 24% 0% 29% 24 $30K to $60K 57% 29% 0% 14% 39 $60K to $75K 18% 67% 8% 7% 15 $75K to $100K 37% 33% 0% 30% 19 $100K or more 47% 26% 0% 27% 56

Married 52% 25% 1% 23% 137 Divorced/separated 35% 37% 0% 28% 38 Never married 43% 45% 0% 12% 20

Protestant 49% 34% 0% 17% 86 Catholic 54% 11% 2% 34% 51 Other 41% 40% 0% 20% 56

Attend services 1 or more/week 57% 13% 0% 30% 53 1-2 times a month 41% 46% 4% 9% 33 Less often 49% 25% 0% 26% 55 Never 41% 40% 0% 19% 53

North Country 37% 19% 0% 44% 19 Central / Lakes 45% 39% 0% 16% 39 Connecticut Valley 44% 30% 0% 26% 54 Mass Border 56% 23% 2% 19% 73 Manchester Area 34% 42% 0% 24% 12

US House – Charlie Bass vs. Katrina Swett – Likely Voters

Bass Swett Other DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 47% 30% 1% 21% 196

Registered Democrat 13% 64% 4% 19% 46 Registered Undeclared 44% 29% 0% 27% 78 Registered Republican 78% 8% 0% 15% 61

Democrat 19% 57% 2% 21% 89 Independent 57% 18% 0% 25% 28 Republican 77% 4% 0% 19% 76

Liberal 8% 73% 2% 17% 43 Moderate 42% 33% 1% 24% 83 Conservative 81% 1% 0% 18% 61

Definitely decided vote 37% 59% 3% 0% 31 Leaning toward someone 54% 25% 3% 19% 34 Still trying to decide 49% 23% 0% 28% 128

Union household 41% 48% 0% 12% 22 Non-union 48% 28% 1% 22% 172

10 yrs or less in NH 45% 17% 0% 38% 37 11 to 20 years 33% 46% 3% 18% 33 More than 20 years 51% 30% 1% 18% 126

18 to 34 56% 38% 0% 6% 19 35 to 49 52% 18% 0% 30% 40 50 to 64 38% 34% 3% 26% 76 65 and over 53% 32% 0% 15% 61

Male 47% 30% 0% 24% 97 Female 48% 31% 2% 19% 99

High school or less 60% 22% 0% 18% 35 Some college 51% 27% 0% 22% 42 College graduate 51% 26% 0% 23% 64 Post-graduate 32% 42% 4% 22% 53

Less than $30K 47% 42% 0% 11% 24 $30K to $60K 56% 20% 0% 24% 39 $60K to $75K 18% 70% 0% 12% 15 $75K to $100K 45% 30% 0% 25% 19 $100K or more 46% 27% 4% 24% 56

Married 52% 25% 1% 22% 137 Divorced/separated 37% 45% 0% 18% 38 Never married 37% 43% 0% 20% 20

Protestant 52% 28% 1% 19% 86 Catholic 50% 20% 0% 30% 51 Other 39% 44% 2% 15% 56

Attend services 1 or more/week 54% 13% 2% 30% 53 1-2 times a month 35% 42% 3% 20% 33 Less often 50% 28% 0% 22% 55 Never 47% 44% 0% 9% 53

North Country 37% 26% 0% 37% 19 Central / Lakes 53% 26% 5% 16% 38 Connecticut Valley 49% 35% 0% 16% 54 Mass Border 47% 30% 0% 22% 73 Manchester Area 34% 33% 0% 34% 12 US House – Jennifer Horn vs. Ann McClane Kuster – Likely Voters

Horn Kuster Other DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 34% 32% 0% 34% 198

Registered Democrat 9% 70% 0% 21% 46 Registered Undeclared 22% 29% 1% 48% 79 Registered Republican 72% 8% 0% 20% 62

Democrat 9% 61% 1% 29% 89 Independent 23% 24% 0% 53% 28 Republican 67% 2% 0% 32% 79

Liberal 7% 71% 0% 22% 43 Moderate 19% 35% 0% 46% 83 Conservative 74% 3% 1% 22% 63

Definitely decided vote 36% 60% 0% 3% 31 Leaning toward someone 37% 40% 0% 23% 34 Still trying to decide 34% 22% 0% 44% 130

Union household 24% 52% 0% 25% 22 Non-union 36% 29% 0% 35% 174

10 yrs or less in NH 44% 7% 0% 50% 38 11 to 20 years 12% 50% 0% 38% 33 More than 20 years 37% 34% 0% 28% 127

18 to 34 40% 28% 0% 32% 19 35 to 49 45% 14% 1% 39% 40 50 to 64 22% 39% 0% 39% 77 65 and over 40% 35% 0% 25% 62

Male 34% 34% 0% 32% 100 Female 34% 29% 1% 36% 98

High school or less 30% 21% 1% 48% 35 Some college 42% 25% 0% 33% 44 College graduate 45% 27% 0% 29% 64 Post-graduate 18% 49% 0% 33% 53

Less than $30K 32% 27% 2% 39% 25 $30K to $60K 31% 27% 0% 42% 39 $60K to $75K 12% 63% 0% 25% 15 $75K to $100K 25% 35% 0% 40% 20 $100K or more 40% 32% 0% 28% 56

Married 39% 30% 0% 32% 139 Divorced/separated 21% 34% 1% 44% 36 Never married 25% 45% 0% 31% 20

Protestant 37% 35% 1% 27% 85 Catholic 43% 17% 0% 40% 53 Other 21% 39% 0% 39% 57

Attend services 1 or more/week 50% 17% 0% 33% 55 1-2 times a month 27% 40% 0% 33% 33 Less often 31% 27% 0% 42% 55 Never 25% 46% 1% 28% 52

North Country 21% 24% 0% 55% 19 Central / Lakes 40% 38% 1% 21% 40 Connecticut Valley 30% 40% 0% 31% 54 Mass Border 40% 23% 0% 37% 73 Manchester Area 21% 36% 0% 42% 12 US House – Jennifer Horn vs. Katrina Swett – Likely Voters

Horn Swett Other DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 35% 31% 1% 33% 198

Registered Democrat 4% 65% 2% 29% 46 Registered Undeclared 25% 32% 0% 43% 79 Registered Republican 76% 6% 0% 18% 62

Democrat 7% 62% 1% 29% 89 Independent 25% 17% 0% 59% 28 Republican 70% 2% 0% 28% 79

Liberal 0% 77% 0% 23% 43 Moderate 21% 33% 1% 44% 83 Conservative 79% 0% 0% 21% 63

Definitely decided vote 25% 72% 0% 3% 31 Leaning toward someone 46% 28% 3% 23% 34 Still trying to decide 36% 21% 0% 43% 130

Union household 35% 40% 0% 24% 22 Non-union 36% 29% 1% 34% 174

10 yrs or less in NH 44% 9% 0% 47% 38 11 to 20 years 17% 41% 3% 39% 33 More than 20 years 37% 35% 0% 27% 127

18 to 34 40% 21% 0% 39% 19 35 to 49 41% 22% 0% 37% 40 50 to 64 28% 33% 1% 38% 77 65 and over 40% 38% 0% 22% 62

Male 39% 31% 0% 31% 100 Female 32% 32% 1% 36% 98

High school or less 20% 30% 0% 50% 35 Some college 46% 18% 0% 36% 44 College graduate 48% 28% 0% 24% 64 Post-graduate 21% 45% 2% 33% 53

Less than $30K 27% 33% 0% 41% 25 $30K to $60K 39% 22% 0% 39% 39 $60K to $75K 15% 63% 0% 21% 15 $75K to $100K 25% 29% 0% 46% 20 $100K or more 43% 32% 2% 24% 56

Married 39% 30% 1% 31% 139 Divorced/separated 27% 35% 0% 38% 36 Never married 25% 36% 0% 39% 20

Protestant 43% 27% 1% 28% 85 Catholic 40% 23% 0% 37% 53 Other 19% 44% 0% 37% 57

Attend services 1 or more/week 48% 22% 2% 29% 55 1-2 times a month 29% 34% 0% 37% 33 Less often 32% 23% 0% 45% 55 Never 28% 48% 0% 24% 52

North Country 14% 31% 0% 55% 19 Central / Lakes 41% 41% 2% 16% 40 Connecticut Valley 36% 34% 0% 30% 54 Mass Border 39% 25% 0% 37% 73 Manchester Area 26% 27% 0% 47% 12 Favorability Rating – Former Congressman Charlie Bass

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 34% 6% 34% 27% 226

Likely Voter 36% 6% 35% 23% 201 Non-Likely Voter 20% 2% 22% 57% 24

Registered Democrat 18% 4% 59% 20% 53 Registered Undeclared 41% 7% 26% 26% 87 Registered Republican 40% 6% 32% 22% 64

Democrat 24% 5% 49% 21% 98 Independent 39% 7% 25% 29% 39 Republican 43% 5% 22% 29% 84

Liberal 13% 1% 57% 28% 47 Moderate 44% 7% 30% 18% 95 Conservative 34% 7% 28% 31% 73

Union household 23% 8% 48% 21% 25 Non-union 36% 5% 32% 27% 199

10 yrs or less in NH 25% 7% 17% 51% 43 11 to 20 years 10% 4% 56% 31% 35 More than 20 years 42% 6% 34% 18% 146

18 to 34 24% 0% 23% 53% 25 35 to 49 29% 7% 24% 41% 46 50 to 64 29% 6% 47% 18% 88 65 and over 47% 7% 28% 18% 67

Male 33% 9% 42% 16% 109 Female 35% 2% 27% 36% 117

High school or less 48% 4% 16% 32% 52 Some college 27% 9% 33% 31% 49 College graduate 32% 2% 35% 31% 68 Post-graduate 30% 9% 48% 14% 54

Less than $30K 28% 2% 39% 32% 32 $30K to $60K 39% 7% 31% 23% 44 $60K to $75K 27% 4% 55% 13% 15 $75K to $100K 35% 6% 38% 21% 21 $100K or more 34% 11% 28% 27% 61

Married 35% 7% 33% 25% 151 Divorced/separated 34% 6% 40% 20% 45 Never married 31% 0% 26% 42% 27

Protestant 36% 4% 34% 27% 94 Catholic 39% 5% 18% 38% 63 Other 28% 10% 51% 12% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 35% 7% 25% 34% 58 1-2 times a month 22% 10% 52% 15% 33 Less often 36% 6% 22% 36% 61 Never 38% 3% 44% 15% 70

North Country 31% 19% 15% 36% 20 Central / Lakes 43% 1% 32% 23% 44 Connecticut Valley 33% 5% 39% 24% 64 Mass Border 29% 7% 36% 28% 84 Manchester Area 40% 0% 34% 26% 14

Favorability Rating – Former NH Representative Bob Giuda

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 5% 2% 4% 88% 226

Likely Voter 4% 2% 5% 89% 201 Non-Likely Voter 14% 0% 2% 84% 24

Registered Democrat 0% 1% 6% 92% 53 Registered Undeclared 5% 2% 4% 89% 87 Registered Republican 8% 1% 5% 85% 64

Democrat 1% 2% 7% 90% 98 Independent 8% 0% 4% 87% 39 Republican 9% 3% 2% 87% 84

Liberal 3% 0% 0% 97% 47 Moderate 6% 3% 7% 84% 95 Conservative 7% 2% 5% 86% 73

Union household 0% 4% 8% 89% 25 Non-union 6% 2% 4% 88% 199

10 yrs or less in NH 5% 6% 2% 86% 43 11 to 20 years 1% 0% 11% 88% 35 More than 20 years 7% 1% 4% 89% 146

18 to 34 8% 5% 6% 81% 25 35 to 49 4% 2% 0% 95% 46 50 to 64 3% 1% 5% 91% 88 65 and over 8% 2% 6% 83% 67

Male 5% 2% 6% 88% 109 Female 6% 2% 3% 89% 117

High school or less 11% 0% 1% 88% 52 Some college 4% 1% 3% 92% 49 College graduate 6% 3% 2% 90% 68 Post-graduate 1% 3% 12% 84% 54

Less than $30K 6% 0% 2% 93% 32 $30K to $60K 4% 3% 3% 90% 44 $60K to $75K 0% 0% 14% 86% 15 $75K to $100K 6% 0% 7% 87% 21 $100K or more 3% 4% 3% 90% 61

Married 6% 1% 5% 88% 151 Divorced/separated 2% 5% 2% 91% 45 Never married 9% 0% 5% 85% 27

Protestant 6% 3% 5% 87% 94 Catholic 8% 2% 4% 86% 63 Other 3% 0% 5% 92% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 11% 3% 2% 84% 58 1-2 times a month 0% 3% 3% 94% 33 Less often 6% 1% 8% 85% 61 Never 3% 1% 4% 92% 70

North Country 7% 0% 8% 85% 20 Central / Lakes 8% 3% 4% 85% 44 Connecticut Valley 7% 2% 7% 85% 64 Mass Border 3% 1% 3% 93% 84 Manchester Area 0% 5% 0% 95% 14 Favorability Rating – Journalist Jennifer Horn

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 21% 3% 11% 65% 226

Likely Voter 22% 2% 12% 63% 201 Non-Likely Voter 13% 7% 2% 78% 24

Registered Democrat 17% 1% 14% 67% 53 Registered Undeclared 16% 1% 13% 69% 87 Registered Republican 34% 4% 10% 52% 64

Democrat 20% 2% 19% 60% 98 Independent 9% 3% 7% 81% 39 Republican 28% 4% 5% 63% 84

Liberal 8% 0% 13% 79% 47 Moderate 22% 4% 17% 57% 95 Conservative 29% 4% 3% 64% 73

Union household 11% 0% 15% 73% 25 Non-union 22% 3% 10% 64% 199

10 yrs or less in NH 23% 6% 3% 69% 43 11 to 20 years 21% 0% 7% 72% 35 More than 20 years 21% 3% 15% 62% 146

18 to 34 23% 7% 0% 70% 25 35 to 49 24% 0% 13% 63% 46 50 to 64 18% 1% 13% 67% 88 65 and over 22% 6% 11% 61% 67

Male 22% 0% 11% 67% 109 Female 20% 5% 12% 63% 117

High school or less 21% 3% 9% 66% 52 Some college 16% 7% 7% 70% 49 College graduate 27% 1% 7% 64% 68 Post-graduate 18% 0% 21% 61% 54

Less than $30K 17% 0% 8% 75% 32 $30K to $60K 23% 5% 6% 66% 44 $60K to $75K 22% 0% 19% 59% 15 $75K to $100K 11% 0% 20% 69% 21 $100K or more 22% 0% 11% 68% 61

Married 23% 3% 11% 63% 151 Divorced/separated 17% 1% 16% 66% 45 Never married 15% 6% 5% 74% 27

Protestant 23% 3% 12% 62% 94 Catholic 22% 3% 9% 66% 63 Other 18% 3% 11% 68% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 23% 3% 6% 69% 58 1-2 times a month 27% 4% 7% 62% 33 Less often 23% 4% 12% 60% 61 Never 15% 1% 16% 68% 70

North Country 7% 0% 3% 90% 20 Central / Lakes 31% 0% 15% 54% 44 Connecticut Valley 17% 4% 16% 63% 64 Mass Border 22% 5% 9% 64% 84 Manchester Area 23% 0% 0% 77% 14 Favorability Rating – Attorney Ann McLane Kuster

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 10% 3% 2% 85% 226

Likely Voter 12% 3% 2% 83% 201 Non-Likely Voter 0% 0% 2% 98% 24

Registered Democrat 20% 3% 2% 76% 53 Registered Undeclared 12% 2% 0% 86% 87 Registered Republican 4% 4% 5% 87% 64

Democrat 18% 2% 1% 79% 98 Independent 8% 2% 0% 90% 39 Republican 3% 4% 4% 89% 84

Liberal 20% 0% 0% 80% 47 Moderate 15% 3% 1% 81% 95 Conservative 1% 4% 4% 92% 73

Union household 22% 0% 1% 77% 25 Non-union 9% 3% 2% 86% 199

10 yrs or less in NH 3% 4% 0% 93% 43 11 to 20 years 22% 6% 0% 72% 35 More than 20 years 10% 1% 3% 86% 146

18 to 34 0% 6% 0% 94% 25 35 to 49 6% 4% 3% 87% 46 50 to 64 13% 1% 2% 84% 88 65 and over 14% 2% 2% 82% 67

Male 8% 1% 2% 89% 109 Female 13% 4% 2% 82% 117

High school or less 4% 0% 4% 91% 52 Some college 8% 3% 1% 88% 49 College graduate 10% 3% 2% 85% 68 Post-graduate 20% 5% 1% 75% 54

Less than $30K 3% 0% 3% 93% 32 $30K to $60K 22% 0% 1% 77% 44 $60K to $75K 23% 10% 0% 67% 15 $75K to $100K 8% 0% 0% 92% 21 $100K or more 5% 5% 3% 87% 61

Married 9% 1% 1% 88% 151 Divorced/separated 16% 4% 5% 76% 45 Never married 8% 8% 2% 82% 27

Protestant 14% 2% 3% 82% 94 Catholic 5% 5% 0% 89% 63 Other 12% 1% 3% 84% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 8% 2% 3% 88% 58 1-2 times a month 22% 4% 0% 74% 33 Less often 9% 3% 1% 87% 61 Never 9% 2% 3% 86% 70

North Country 21% 0% 0% 79% 20 Central / Lakes 19% 2% 6% 73% 44 Connecticut Valley 7% 3% 3% 87% 64 Mass Border 5% 3% 0% 93% 84 Manchester Area 16% 5% 0% 79% 14 Favorability Rating – Businesswoman Katrina Swett

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DIST. 15% 7% 20% 58% 226

Likely Voter 15% 8% 22% 55% 201 Non-Likely Voter 9% 0% 7% 84% 24

Registered Democrat 28% 3% 15% 54% 53 Registered Undeclared 15% 11% 20% 54% 87 Registered Republican 9% 5% 32% 54% 64

Democrat 24% 7% 16% 54% 98 Independent 11% 10% 23% 56% 39 Republican 7% 6% 24% 63% 84

Liberal 32% 3% 8% 58% 47 Moderate 16% 10% 20% 54% 95 Conservative 4% 8% 30% 59% 73

Union household 30% 0% 21% 48% 25 Non-union 13% 8% 20% 59% 199

10 yrs or less in NH 4% 10% 6% 80% 43 11 to 20 years 15% 2% 20% 63% 35 More than 20 years 17% 7% 25% 51% 146

18 to 34 0% 5% 0% 95% 25 35 to 49 17% 6% 9% 69% 46 50 to 64 13% 5% 30% 52% 88 65 and over 20% 11% 23% 46% 67

Male 15% 9% 20% 56% 109 Female 15% 5% 20% 60% 117

High school or less 10% 5% 16% 69% 52 Some college 10% 7% 16% 68% 49 College graduate 10% 9% 21% 60% 68 Post-graduate 27% 7% 26% 40% 54

Less than $30K 11% 0% 17% 72% 32 $30K to $60K 11% 20% 17% 52% 44 $60K to $75K 16% 0% 22% 62% 15 $75K to $100K 19% 17% 32% 33% 21 $100K or more 17% 4% 26% 53% 61

Married 15% 8% 21% 55% 151 Divorced/separated 18% 5% 22% 56% 45 Never married 9% 3% 10% 78% 27

Protestant 13% 5% 22% 60% 94 Catholic 10% 3% 17% 71% 63 Other 23% 15% 21% 41% 64

Attend services 1 or more/week 9% 8% 22% 61% 58 1-2 times a month 25% 4% 12% 59% 33 Less often 14% 6% 17% 63% 61 Never 16% 9% 25% 50% 70

North Country 15% 0% 0% 85% 20 Central / Lakes 25% 6% 42% 27% 44 Connecticut Valley 13% 12% 24% 51% 64 Mass Border 11% 7% 9% 73% 84 Manchester Area 9% 0% 30% 61% 14