Split Ballot - Shea-Porter Leads in Nh 1St , Bass in 2 Nd
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THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER July 29, 2010 SPLIT BALLOT - SHEA-PORTER LEADS IN NH 1ST , BASS IN 2 ND By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center 603/862-2226 DURHAM, NH – After trailing for months, Carol Shea-Porter now leads in the race to keep her seat in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District. In the Second Congressional District, former Republican Congressman Charlie Bass continues to lead both Democratic candidates as he attempts to regain the seat he lost in 2006. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll ,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred four (504) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 19 and July 27, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent. Included was a subsample of 264 adults in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/-6.0%), and a subsample of 240 Second Congressional District adults (margin of sampling error +/-6.3%). 1st Congressional District In New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces a difficult re-election fight. She continues to have low favorability ratings, and doesn’t break 50% against any of her Republican rivals, but she has improved on both of these indicators of reelection during the summer months. Currently, 41% of adults in New Hampshire’s 1st CD have a favorable opinion of her, 35% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 24% are neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating remains low at +6%, but this is up from -7% in April. Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter NH 1 st District 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July Sep. Feb. Apr. July Sep. Feb. Apr. July Sep. Feb. Apr. June Oct. Feb. Apr. July '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 Favorable Unfavorable ∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The 1 st CD is the more Republican of New Hampshire’s two Congressional districts and Shea-Porter has been perceived vulnerable in both her reelection fights in 2008 and in 2010. This has drawn several serious Republican challengers into the race. However, all Republican challengers are largely unknown to voters in the First District, and summer is a difficult time to boost visibility. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is still the best known Republican. Currently, 28% of 1st CD adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 17% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 55% are either neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Guinta’s net favorability rating is +11%, up from +4% in April. Favorability Ratings – Frank Guinta NH 1 st District 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr. '09 June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Rich Ashooh, an executive for BAE Systems in Nashua entered the race in February, but remains largely unknown to voters. In the most recent Granite State Poll, only 11% of 1 st CD adults say they have a favorable opinion of Ashooh, 3% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 86% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Ashooh’s net favorability rating is +8%. Favorability Ratings – Rich Ashooh NH 1 st District 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Portsmouth businessman, and former Republican National Committee member Sean Mahoney has had significant success raising money, but is also mostly unknown in the District. Currently, 14% have a favorable opinion of Mahoney, 9% have an unfavorable opinion, and 78% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Mahoney’s net favorability rating in the 1 st CD is +5%. Favorability Ratings –Sean Mahoney NH 1 st District 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Newmarket businessman Bob Bestani remains largely unknown in the First District compared with his better funded Republican rivals. Currently, only 4% of 1 st CD adults say they have a favorable opinion of Bestani, 3% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 94% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Bestani’s net favorability rating is +1%, unchanged since February. Favorability Ratings – Bob Bestani NH 1 st District 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Carol Shea-Porter, due to her improved favorability ratings and her opponents’ inability to raise their profiles during the summer, has taken small to moderate leads over her challengers in pre-election trial heats. It is important to point out that Shea-Porter does not break 50% against any of her challengers, a critical indicator of weakness for a Congressional incumbent. In a matchup between Shea-Porter and her best known challenger, Frank Guinta, 44% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 39% say they will vote for Guinta, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 16% are undecided. Guinta had held leads over Shea-Porter in both the February and April Granite State Polls. NH 1 st CD Race – Guinta (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60% 50% 44% 43% 42% 40% 38% 39% 30% 33% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Guinta Shea-Porter In a matchup with Rich Ashooh, 43% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 35% would vote for Ashooh, and 22% are undecided. NH 1 st CD Race – Ashooh (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60% 50% 43% 39% 40% 36% 30% 36% 33% 35% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Ashooh Shea-Porter In a matchup with Sean Mahoney, 45% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 36% would vote for Mahoney, 1% prefer some other candidate and 18% are undecided. NH 1 st CD Race – Mahoney (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60% 50% 45% 39% 40% 40% 37% 30% 36% 32% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Mahoney Shea-Porter And in a matchup with Bob Bestani, 44% of likely 1 st CD voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 33% would vote for Bestani, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 22% are undecided. NH 1 st CD Race – Bestani (R) vs. Shea-Porter (D) 60% 50% 44% 38% 40% 36% 37% 30% 32% 33% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Bestani Shea-Porter In New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District, C since April. Currently, 37% of 2 and 33% are neutral or don’t know enough about him from +4% in April. 50% Congressional Favorability Ratings –NH 2 nd 40% CD adults have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 30% h 30% Favorability Ratings – Paul Hodes NH 2 20% ongressman Paul Hodes’ favorability ratings have re 10% to say. Hodes’ net favorability stands at +7% in t 0% nd Apr. '04 District July '04 Former Congressman Charlie Bass, whoSep. held ' 04the 2 regain the seat. Bass remains well known in the Di into the race. Currently, 34% of 2 Jan. '05 nd ave an unfavorable opinion of him, are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Apr. '05 District February. July '05 Oct. '05 Feb '06 Apr. '06 mained unchanged July '06 he Second District, up Sep. '06 100% Feb. '07 Favorable 90% nd Apr. '07 80% CD adults have a favorable opinion of Bass, 34% haJuly '07 70% Sep. '07 60% nd Feb. '08 CD seat from 1994 until 2006 when heA lostpr. 'to08 Hodes 50% Favorability Ratings – Charliestrict, Bass but NH his unfavorable2nd District ratings haveUnfavorable increased 40% July '08 30% Bass’ net favorability rating is 0% down significa Sep. '08 20% Feb. '09 10% Apr. '09 June '09 0% Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Oct. '01 Apr. '10 Feb. '02 Apr. '02 July '10 June '02 Feb. '03 Apr. '03 ve an unfavorable of him, and 33% July '03 Oct. '03 Feb. '04 sharply since his entry Apr. '04 , is running to July '04 Sep. '04 ntly from +25% in Jan. '05 Apr. '05 July '05 Oct. '05 Favorable Feb '06 Apr. '06 July '06 Sep. '06 Feb. '07 Apr. '07 UnfavorableJuly '07 Sep. '07 Feb. '08 Apr. '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Feb. '09 Apr. '09 June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Journalist Jennifer Horn, who lost to Hodes in 2008, is running again in 2010. Horn remains largely unknown among adults in the 2nd CD – 21% of 2nd CD adults have a favorable opinion of her, 11% have an unfavorable opinion, and 68% are neutral or don’t know enough to say. Horn’s net favorability is +10%, up from +5% in April. Favorability Ratings – Jennifer Horn NH 2nd District 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr. '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Feb. '09 Apr. '09 June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable A third Republican running is former State Representative Bob Guida. Guida remains unknown in the 2 nd CD with only 5% of 2 nd CD adults saying they have a favorable opinion of him, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, and 90% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Guida’s favorability ratings have remained largely unchanged since February.