That Is the Question

No. 2190

TO MERGE OR NOT TO MERGE: THAT IS THE QUESTION

Ramon Faulí-Oller and Luis C. Corchón

INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION ISSN 0265-8003

TO MERGE OR NOT TO MERGE: THAT IS THE QUESTION

Ramon Faulí-Oller, Universidad de Alicante Luis C. Corchón, Universidad Carlos III

Discussion Paper No. 2190 July 1999

Centre for Economic Policy Research 90–98 Goswell Rd, London EC1V 7RR Tel: (44 171) 878 2900, Fax: (44 171) 878 2999 Email: [email protected]; Website: http://www.cepr.org

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July 1999

ABSTRACT

To Merge or Not To Merge: That is the Question*

In this Paper we analyse the implementation of socially optimal mergers when the regulator is not informed about the parameters that determine social and private gains from potential mergers. We find that most of the standard tools in dominant strategy implementation, like the revelation principle or the Vickrey- Clarke-Groves mechanism, cannot be applied in our framework. We show that implementation in dominant strategies of the optimal merger policy without budget balance is possible under an additional assumption. The same assumption makes possible the implementation in Nash equilibrium of the optimal merger policy with budget balance.

JEL Classification: L11 Keywords: mergers, welfare

Luis C. Corchón Ramon Faulí-Oller Departamento de Economia Department of Economics Universidad Carlos III Universidad de Alicante C Madrid 126 Campus de Sant Vicent 28093 Getafe 03071 Alicante SPAIN SPAIN Tel: 00 34 91 624 96 17 Tel: 00 34 96 590 34 00 (ext. 3226) Fax: 00 34 91 624 98 75 Fax: 00 34 96 590 3614 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

* This Paper was presented at the First CODE meeting held in Barcelona, June1997 and in seminars at the universities of Alicante, Carlos III, Bilbao, Complutense (Madrid), Málaga and Caen. We would like to thank P Amorós, D Cardona-Coll, P Hammond, A Lozano, C Martinez, V Merlin, D Moreno, B Moreno, D Mookherjee, J Naeve, P Pereira, R Renault, A Snoy and F Vega- Redondo for their useful comments. The authors are solely responsible for any remaining errors. Ramon Faulí-Oller acknowledges partial financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education through CICYT grant PB- 970131.

Submitted 14 June 1999 NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Suppose two firms, say Boeing and McDonnell-Douglas, want to merge. What is the effect of this merger on social welfare? First, the degree of competition falls and this affects social welfare negatively. Second, there might be cost reductions (saving of fixed costs, synergy gains, etc.) or technological improvements that enhance social welfare. Which effect dominates depends on the particular specification of the problem at hand.

This Paper tries to find ways of evaluating the overall effect of asymmetric information between the regulator and the merging firms. In order to do so, the Paper attempts to blend two seemingly unrelated areas of economics: the Theory of Mergers and the Theory of Implementation. The Theory of Mergers studies the individual incentives to merge and the consequences on social welfare of such a decision under different market structures. The Theory of Implementation studies the outcomes that are reachable under a certain game theoretical solution when the designer is not perfectly informed about the characteristics of the agents. The key concept here is that of a mechanism, that is a collection of message spaces that define the possibilities of communication among agents and an outcome function that specifies how the final allocation depends on messages. Thus a mechanism is just a procedure to take decisions. The paramount application of Implementation Theory is the design of institutions that achieve certain social goals when agents behave strategically.

It has long been recognized that in an unregulated market, social and individual incentives to merge can differ widely. This is why in most western countries certain mergers have to be approved by independent bodies, like the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission in the USA and the Commission in the European Union. The former issued Merger Guidelines that expressed the opinions of the regulators about when a merger would be likely to be contested by this department. The basic information used by the Merger Guidelines refers to market shares. However, they also obtain information from the firms since they recognize that they may possess information that is not in the hands of the regulator.

The use of market shares in Merger Guidelines has been rationalized in several papers (Farrell and Shapiro (1990) and Levin (1990)). They derive sufficient conditions for a merger to increase welfare that depend basically on market shares of firms. The relevant information supplied by market shares comes from the fact that in the type of competition they consider market shares are negatively correlated with marginal costs. However, this procedure is problematic on two counts. First, it does not take into account that firms may manipulate market shares in order to fool the regulator. Second, market shares cannot be used to predict postmerger equilibrium. In the present Paper, we explore, using the Theory of Implementation, the potential use of the dialogue between the regulator and the firms in the process of deciding whether to approve a merger.

In this Paper we take the view that there is a serious informational asymmetry between firms and regulators, but that merger procedures (i.e. mechanisms) could, in principle, be designed and enforced. And thus the question becomes the following: are there mechanisms that could, under any possible circumstance, achieve socially optimal decisions on a merger when agents behave according to a certain game theoretical concept?

We focus on mechanisms where firms truthfully reveal the parameters (their own private information) determining the social gains of mergers. This kind of mechanism does not always exist, because firms know that the information will be used to maximize social welfare and not firm profits.

We study two cases in particular: the synergy case and the rationalization case. In the first case, the relevant parameters refer to the cost reduction induced by the merger. In the second case, they refer to the cost differential between merger partners that measure the possibilities of cost efficiencies due to rationalization of production. In both cases, we show that implementation of the efficient merger policy is possible. We conclude by defining the general economic environments where this result can be obtained. W?|hL_U|L? wi|

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