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Behavioral Finance and Its Implications for Active Management NCPERS Annual Conference

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Behavioral Finance and Its Implications for Active Management NCPERS Annual Conference Behavioral Finance and its Implications for Active Management NCPERS Annual Conference Thomas J. Digenan, CFA, CPA Head of US Intrinsic Value Equity, Managing Director May 5, 2015 Beware of your own behavioral tendencies • Loss aversion • Prospect theory • Mental accounting • Overestimating your ability • Too much emphasis on recent events • Fear of regret • Anchoring 2 Investor returns: Not the same as investment returns What caused the difference? 20-Year Annualized Returns (1994–2013) 12.0% Average holding period of equity mutual fund investors 3.3 years 9.2% p 8.0 5.0% 4.0 2.4% S&P 500 IndexDALBAR Average Equity Inflation Fund Investor Source: DALBAR Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2014 Advisor Edition; used with permission. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Average equity investor performance results are calculated using data supplied by the Investment Company Institute. Investor returns are represented by the change in total mutual fund assets after excluding sales, redemptions and exchanges. This method of calculation captures realized and unrealized capital gains, dividends, interest, trading costs, sales charges, fees, expenses and any other costs. After calculating investor returns in dollar terms, two percentages are calculated for the period examined: Total investor return rate and annualized investor return rate. Total return rate is determined by calculating the investor return dollars as a percentage of the net of the sales, redemptions and exchanges for each period. 3 Beware of your own behavioral tendencies Only two things are “infi nite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.” —Albert Einstein 4 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies 5 Stay objective. Whether you’re in the markets… 6 the boardroom… 7 or in a casino. Stay objective. 8 Make a choice Choice 1 A sure gain of $3,000 or An 80% chance of gaining $4,000 and a 20% chance of no gain 9 Make a choice Choice 1 Choice 2 A sure gain of $3,000 A sure loss of $3,000 or or An 80% chance of gaining $4,000 An 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of no gain and a 20% chance of no loss 10 Loss aversion People strongly prefer avoiding losses to making gains Choice 1 Choice 2 A sure gain of $3,000 A sure loss of $3,000 or or An 80% chance of gaining $4,000 An 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of no gain and a 20% chance of no loss Most people take the Most people take a sure gain of $3,000 chance to avoid the loss 11 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Prospect theory • Calibrate your mental market model symmetrically • Don’t double down when you are behind 12 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Mental accounting • Investors treat money differently based on its source • Financial or mental budgeting drives behavior • Endowment effect: people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it. • Solution: Money is fungible 13 Cognitive Dissonance Status quo thinking, people cling tightly to their initial ideas Evidence that o Evidence that supports ppp ff contradicts my belief my belief 14 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Overestimating your ability • If you don’t know who the pigeon at the poker table is…. It’s you. 15 Do you want to hire one of these managers? Almost all sample managers over a 10-year period suffered a 3-year period of under-performance Percentage of sample large cap equity managers whose performance fell into the bottom half, quartile or decile for at least one 3-year period 100% 97% 75 77% 50 44% 25 Bottom half Bottom quarter Bottom decile Source: Davis Advisors. 163 managers from eVestment Alliance’s large cap universe. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 10-year period: January 1, 1999–December 31, 2008 16 Skilled managers have volatile performance Even top-quartile managers over a 10-year period are subject to a 3-year period of under-performance Percentage of top-quartile large cap equity managers whose performance fell into the bottom half, quartile or decile for at least one 3-year period 100% 97% 75 77% 50 44% 25 Bottom half Bottom quarter Bottom decile Source: Davis Advisors. 163 managers from eVestment Alliance’s large cap universe. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 10-year period: January 1, 1999–December 31, 2008 17 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Too much emphasis on recent events “The US economy remains almost comatose. The slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Depression. The economy is staggering under many ‘structural’ burdens, as opposed to familiar ‘cyclical’ problems. The structural faults represent once-in-a-lifetime dislocations that will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought; the debt hangover; the banking collapse; the real estate depression; the health care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit.” 18 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Too much emphasis on recent events “The US economy remains almost comatose. The slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Depression. The economy is staggering under many ‘structural’ burdens, as opposed to familiar ‘cyclical’ problems. The structural faults represent once-in-a-lifetime dislocations that will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought; the debt hangover; the banking collapse; the real estate depression; the health care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit.” Time Magazine, September 28, 1992 19 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Too much emphasis on recent events • Most of the short-term drivers of stock price are just noise • Be opportunistic when the market overreacts 20 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Fear of regret and anchoring • Would you hire this manager today? • Is the reason you hired this manager still intact? 21 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Fear of regret and anchoring 250 200 150 $125 100 50 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 Source: FactSet. Used with permission. 22 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Fear of regret and anchoring 250 $200 200 150 $125 100 50 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 Source: FactSet. Used with permission. 23 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Fear of regret and anchoring 250 $200 200 150 $125 100 $75 50 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 Source: FactSet. Used with permission. 24 How to defeat your own behavioral tendencies Fear of regret and anchoring 250 $200 200 150 $125 100 $75 50 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 Source: FactSet. Used with permission. 25 Some fi nal thoughts “One hundred thousand lemmings cannot be wrong” -Graffi ti Source: Aswath Damodaran. Used with permission. 26 Challenges for the successful investor If you don’t learn from history, you are destined to repeat it • Don’t be the investor that gets caught in these traps. • Learning is difficult. The human memory is incredibly flawed. This is why investment policy statements are essential. • Keep an investment diary. 27 Challenges for the successful investor If you don’t learn from history, you are destined to repeat it • Strategy is only as strong as the process that developed it. • Objectivity can be driven by a process, not by a human mind. 28 Thomas J. Digenan, CFA, CPA Head of US Intrinsic Value Equity, Managing Director Years of investment industry experience: 29 Education: Marquette University (US), BS; DePaul University (US), MST • Tom Digenan is the head of the US Intrinsic Value • Prior to joining the UBS predecessor organization Equity team. In this role he is responsible for US equities Brinson Partners in 1993, Tom was a senior portfolio construction and research. Prior to this manager in the tax department of KPMG Peat Marwick, role Tom had been a Strategist with the team since where he worked exclusively in the investment 2001, whereby he participated in the analysis and services industry. development of US equities portfolios, focusing on alpha generation and ensuring client investment • Tom is a member of the CFA Institute, the CFA Society objectives were met. of Chicago, and the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. He is also a member • Prior to his role with the US Intrinsic Value Equity of the Dean’s Council of Excellence for the Marquette team, Tom was president of the firm’s mutual funds and University Business School. relationship funds organization. • Tom is also an adjunct professor in the Marquette University Graduate School of Business. 29 UBS Global Asset Management UBS Global Asset Management is one of the five business divisions of UBS, the other four being Wealth Management, Wealth Management Americas, Investment Bank and Retail & Corporate. The asset management division was formed through the merger of Union Bank of Switzerland and Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998. In July 2000, the merger culminated in the integration of the investment teams of the respective asset management businesses: UBS Asset Management, Brinson Partners (whose Chicago origins date back to the early 1970s) and Phillips & Drew (established in London in 1895). In April 2002, with the integration completed, we re-branded as UBS Global Asset Management, reflecting the truly global nature of our business. Services to U.S. persons are provided by UBS Global Asset Management (Americas) Inc. or UBS Global Asset Management Trust Company. Assets under management/advisement for UBS Global Asset Management (Americas) Inc.
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