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HPI Horse Race: Braun/Donnelly Tossup Morning Consult Reelect Numbers, Donnelly Appeals Reflect Epic Dogfight by BRIAN A

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HPI Horse Race: Braun/Donnelly Tossup Morning Consult Reelect Numbers, Donnelly Appeals Reflect Epic Dogfight by BRIAN A V23, N41 Thursday, June 14, 2018 HPI Horse Race: Braun/Donnelly tossup Morning Consult reelect numbers, Donnelly appeals reflect epic dogfight By BRIAN A. HOWEY NASHVILLE, Ind. – As In- diana Democrats gather for their biennial convention in Indianapo- lis Friday, the blunt force reality is that their hold on the only office voted on by all Hoosiers, the U.S. Senate seat, is now a tossup. U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (left) and Republican nominee Mike Braun are now in a tossup race. (HPI The Morning Consult “2018 Photos by Mark Curry) Midterm Wave Watcher” supplies some sta- also fraught with angst. “We know our emails have been tistical gist: Donnelly’s approve/ a little panicky lately, but we’re not exaggerating when we disapprove stood at 41/34%, say that Joe’s chances of winning in November are no bet- down from 43/30% in January. ter than a coin flip,” read one Team Donnelly fundraising But the real heartburn for Demo- appeal last week. crats is that 44% said it’s “time for Another notes: “Here’s the deal … The pollsters a new person” while 31% said Donnelly “deserves reelec- are calling this race a toss-up, and that means we’ve got tion.” Continued on page 3 The Donnelly campaign’s fundraising appeals are No arcane fights for Dems By SHAW FRIEDMAN LaPORTE – Despite some wishful recurring think- ing from my brethren on the other side of the aisle about some kind of Bernie vs. Hillary battle for the soul of the Democratic Party supposedly playing out, real insights by “Just landed - a long trip, but those who know organizing Indiana political campaigns everyone can now feel much safer realize that’s just not the case across much of Indiana. than the day I took office. There Unlike Hoosier Republi- is no longer a nuclear threat cans, who it appears spent a good deal of energy fighting from North Korea.” this past weekend at their - President Trump, convention about competing platform planks and do seem tweeting after his summit to have some real philosophi- cal splits playing out between with Kim Jong Un social conservatives and the Page 2 more moderate wing of the GOP, most on the campaign trail, he has thrived Hoosier Democrats understand we’re and flourished in his role as a U.S. not in any position to have these senator, maintained a sense of decen- arcane fights about who is sufficiently cy and purpose advocating for Hoo- purist to pass any kind of label to be a siers, and cast common-sense votes Democrat. that are squarely in the mainstream With control of the White of Hoosier thinking. With the vitriol House, both houses of Congress, the and nastiness that dominated the GOP Howey Politics Indiana governorship and the legislature in Senate primary making it one of the Republican hands, most Democrats I most bitterly contested in the nation, WWHowey Media, LLC 405 speak with around the state are ready that’s not easy to paper over on the Massachusetts Ave., Suite to come to Indianapolis this upcom- other side, and the recurring absence 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 ing weekend with a needed show of of Congressman Luke Messer at vari- www.howeypolitics.com support for our newly minted state ous party functions speaks volumes ticket and to go out from there work- that indeed “all is not forgiven.” ing to make some gains both in the Democratic State Chairman Brian A. Howey, Publisher partisan makeup of the legislature and John Zody is being widely praised for Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington in picking up another seat or two in constructing a state ticket composed Cameron Carter, Editor Congress. of Valparaiso attorney Jim Harper for Joel Weyrauch, Editor Frankly, the enthusiasm secretary of state, former State Rep. Mary Lou Howey, Editor building around 2nd Congressional John Aguilera of East Chicago for District nominee Mel Hall (who won all treasurer and Joselyn Whitticker of Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo 10 counties over his primary challeng- Marion for auditor. Harper comes from Jack E. Howey, Editor ers) and Liz Watson in the 9th (who a family of lawyers in Porter County Emeritus many believe will send Trey back to and seems articulate in espousing Tennessee) has been con- tagious. While there were Subscriptions some minor philosophical HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 disputes that played out HPI Weekly, $350 in both primaries between HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly contenders, there was no Ray Volpe, Account Manager bridge-burning that we saw that would poison 317.602.3620 one segment of the party email: [email protected] against another. There are solid nominees for the party as well in places like Contact HPI the 3rd District – Courtney [email protected] Tritch – who could break Liz Watson (left) and Mel Hall Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 through if the wind is at Washington: 202.256.5822 our backs as many antici- Business Office: 317.602.3620 pate. more open and increased voter access There seems to be a sense and participation. Aguilera served that having U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly at four years in the Indiana House and © 2018, Howey Politics the top of our state ticket will be a big was a productive member of the Lake Indiana. All rights reserved. help to Democrats running not just for County Council. He’s a former presi- Photocopying, Internet forward- Congress and legislature but also for dent of the Indiana Latino Institute. ing, faxing or reproducing in Democratic county candidates around Ms. Whitticker is a small business the state. No matter how many times owner and former school teacher and any form, whole or part, is a Republicans may chant, “Send Joe administrator. She’s a branch leader violation of federal law without Home,” most seasoned Republican for the NAACP and was elected to permission from the publisher. operatives will confess over a beer serve on the Marion city council. that Joe Donnelly is one of the most Democrats know that to experienced and hard-working cam- compete and win this year statewide, paigners they’ve ever seen. Always minor stylistic differences are going to the “Happy Warrior” who seems to have to be put aside and all segments thoroughly enjoy and relish his time will need to put their shoulders to the Page 3 wheel and advocate positions that resonate with hard- were successful in repealing the ACA, they’d keep those working Hoosier families. protections. The lawsuit filed by Indiana Attorney General That’s why I wouldn’t expect the kind of fight that Curtis Hill and the position taken this past week in a legal Republicans witnessed at their state convention occurring brief by the Trump-led Justice Department have demon- this next weekend. Instead, I would anticipate Democrats strated how fleeting and illusory those promises were. (Hill taking a strong stand in defending the Affordable Care Act, represents the far right wing of his party and his extrem- on which there is agreement across all segments of the ism has butted up against the more moderate and con- Democratic Party has been generally positive for Hoosiers sensus-building governor on several issues, whether they and yet which Republicans keep trying to kill because it be needle exchange programs or CBD oil, showcasing the emerged under President Obama. Most alarming was the sharp differences that exist between the two factions that brief filed by the Trump-Pence Justice Department just were on display this past weekend.) days ago that seeks to kill of one of the most popular parts Democrats know that protecting guarantees for of the act, that of preserving insurance coverage for those Hoosiers that their pre-existing health conditions will with pre-existing conditions. not be used as a basis to deny insurance coverage, and Despite the notable success of the Afford- fighting to preserve the ACA, are key mobilizing issues on able Care Act in not only expanding Medicaid coverage to which all Democrats – no matter where they fall on the 400,000 needy Hoosiers, the ACA brought peace of mind spectrum – can agree. I anticipate a highly unified and to an estimated 1.5 million Hoosiers in the private insur- energized group of Democrats leaving the Indiana Conven- ance marketplace who feared being denied coverage be- tion Center when all is said and done on Saturday after- cause of pre-existing medical conditions like heart disease, noon. v cancer and diabetes. Republicans campaigning in 2016 were aware of Shaw Friedman is a LaPorte attorney who is a just how popular those guarantees were and Indiana GOP former county Democratic chairman and who also congressional candidates as well as the Trump/Pence ticket served as legal counsel for the Indiana Democratic made numerous assurances to voters that even if they Party from 1999 to 2004. Braun’s first month as a nominee. He has avoided all the Senate race, from page 1 blunders that Richard Mourdock committed in 2012 when an equally good chance of losing as we do of winning. I’ve he alienated the Lugar wing of the party, as well as the heard that before, though. After all, no one thought we’d incendiary rhetoric that prompted the National Republican win in 2012.” Senatorial Committee to assign handlers and keep him out The “blue wave” that had been a double-digit of joint appearances. Braun has financial resources. He’s advantage for Democrats until already running his first statewide TV ad for the general May, has turned into a “blue featuring his business and ripple,” as Republicans noted employees as an inocula- last week in Evansville.
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