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Analysts Current Price: $39.67 Target Price

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Analysts Current Price: $39.67 Target Price Analysts Cheng, Chen Sidi, Chen Current Price: $39.67 [email protected] [email protected] Linhao, Bao Thenuwara, sahan D Target Price: $39 - $45 [email protected] sahan- [email protected] Company Overview 10 Year Stock Performance PacWest Bancorp (“PacWest”), founded in 1999 and based in Beverly Hills, CA is a bank holding company with one wholly-owned commercial banking subsidiary, Pacific Western Bank with more than $21 billion in asset. The bank operates 80 full-service branches primarily in the State of California and one office in Durham, NC. Pacific Western bank and its subsidiary, CapitalSource bank provide traditional commercial banking services, including real estate construction and small and mi-sized companies. Another brand of its business group, Square 1 offers financial services focused on venture capital and private i equity. Financial Highlights(As of 12/31/2015): Investment Thesis Price ● High NIM of PacWest Bancorp leads it stands out Current Price(4/19/2016) 39.62 from comparable companies regarding the 52-week low-high $29.05 - $48.86 profitability. PacWest Bancorp’s overall NIM Beta 1.27 maintains between 5.5% - 6.0%, which is 54% Valuation above the average (3.7% at FY2015 for BI Forward P/E 13.94 Western U.S Regional Banking Competitive PEG Ratio 1.81 Peers) (Bloomberg). We expect the NIM of Price/Book 1.10 PACW will top at 6.0% in 2016 driven by Price/Tangible BV 2.41 moderate pace of raising interest rate. ii Dividend yield 6.5% ● Anticipating soft U.S economy growth (estimated Profitability 1.0% at 2016), we expect PacWest’s amount of Net Interest Margin 5.7% loans will grow at 6% annually in the next 5 ROE 7.5% years, compared with the average of 56% in the ROA 1.6% past 5 years. iii Capital Strcuture ● Valuation metrics among financials sectors will Total Capital Ratio 16.04% remain relatively low due to uncertainties in Tier 1 Capital Ratio 12.70% raising interest rate and lower-than-expected Loan/Deposit 93.79% economy growth in both U.S and global Loans/Total Asset 68.87% environment. We anticipate the P/E for BI Western U.S Regional Banking Competitive Peers will remain at 14x – 16x compared with highest of 23.7x at 2010 and average of 16.1x in the past 10 yearsiv Economic Outlook GDP commercial banks come from various types of loans and securities. vi According to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), On March 31 2015, there were approximately $8.4 trillion total outstanding loans, which accounts for the most majority of regional banks’ interest earning asset. Although the capital expenditure on deposits had been cutting down because of the zero interest rate since the financial crisis in 2008, the net yield spread had been narrowing down due to the faster decreasing earnings on loans. Thus, the concern regarding the Fed future policy seem unpleasant to the bank industry. Source: Bloomberg.com v The latest announcement of adjustment on real GDP growth rate came stronger than expected in the fourth quarter, raising annual growth rate from 1.0% to 1.4%. Regardless of recent controversies about whether the U.S. economy has the tendency towards the recession, the uptrend GDP indicator embedded the confidence to investors. However, with considering about the effect of 7-year cheap money because of zero interest rate and vii Quantitative Easing, massive amount of growing debt, Source: S&P Capital IQ soft global economy, as well as the concern of China’s economy transition, it brings a lot pressure and challenges for the U.S. economy in following years. As the market signal, bank industry is highly correlated with the GDP. Therefore we consider GDP growth rate as a significant factor when we determine the terminal year growth rate. Both of our models show that 1% change in terminal year growth rate leads to 3% of same direction change in the stock price. Therefore we believe the risk of downward economy will impact banks’ performance. Interest Rate Source: S&P Capital IQviii Given dual mandate economic indicators, 7-year Mortgage historical low unemployment rate since financial crisis, The red line below represents Mortgage Debt Outstanding constantly growing inflation indices of CPI and PCE, the by Type of Holder and the blue line represents Wilshire Fed raised interest rate in December by 25 bps to the US REIT. Obviously, the real estate index plunged in target range between 25 bps and 50 bps and claimed four 2008, when the housing bubble popped out. However, we interest hike in succession in 2016. However, considering barely see the impact of the financial crisis on the demand about the unexpected start of 2016, including the plunged of mortgage debts, while the amount of mortgage debts commodities price, slowing down global economy, has been constantly growing for the past 7 years. The plummeted S&P 500, and etc., the Fed remained the large demand of mortgages benefits the bank loaning interest rate level in March and published the guidance of business in terms of the quantity. But it brings large risks 2 interest hike in 2016. Despite public doubts in if there at the same time; since the increasing number of would be 2 or less interest hike for the rest of the year, innovative types of mortgages and mortgage back there would be a long way for banks to enlarge interest securities, which generate high yield and carry large risks, spread. Generally, the primary revenue sources of had been continuously created due to the competitive mortgage market. In addition to the regulation enforcement on the mortgage market since 2008, including strict credit background checking and the requirement of individual’s income evidence, we see a clear improvement on the quality of mortgages based on the measure of credit rating institutions like Standard & Poor’s Rating Service. Nonetheless, it is still unclear to perorate if regional banks could benefit from the mortgage market in terms of large risks and intensive competence. Source: S&P Capital IQ xi After the housing crisis in 2008, bank industry was heavily hit and facing stricter regulation by the government. Also, extremely low interest rate since Dec 2008 kept bank’s net interest margin fairly small. The chart below shows the stock performance for each industry in financial sector. The bank industry is still lagged behind S&P 500 seen from the stock market. Except for interest rate, real GDP growth and inflation are additional significant factors affecting bank’s earnings. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Researchix Recent trends regarding bank industry include highly regulated environment, Merges&Acquisitions, and technology. Industry Analysis Industry Overview Bank industry is one of the major components in financial services sector, accounting for 35% of total financial sector based on market capitalization Diversified banks and regional banks are the major two components in bank industry. Regional banks comprises 21% of the total revenue in bank industry. Bank industry is highly concentrated. As the data of Sep 2015, top 6 largest banks accounted for 78% of the total bank’s market capitalization. x This is primarily because most of the banks offer the similar product lines and target same Source: Fidelity Research customer base. Therefore, it causes banks to conglomerate so that they have stronger capital and more Market and Competitions customers. The chart below shows the breakdown of bank industry based on market capitalization. Due to the nature of banking business, banks industry is highly competitive essentially because they provide undifferentiated products and services to the customers. Even though the number of banks in the US has been cut by half in the past two decades, there are nearly 5500 commercial banks in the US. xiiContracted to decreasing number of banks, M&A activities in bank industry are continuously upward in the previous two decades. We expect M&A activities in bank industry will continue to thrive as a result of increasing competition and tendency of nursing balance sheet for large banks. For banks, merging with or acquiring others banks is the most attractive approach to maintain the growth in the Western 40 12.98 4.51 14.99 environment of soft economy and low-interest-rate. Alliance Bancorp Major Competitors CVB 48 6.08 3.52 10.95 Since we are analyzing PacWest, which is considered as Financial Industry -- -- 2.94 8.51 a regional bank, in this section we will mainly focus on Average companies that fall into the regional banks sub-industry. Source: FactSet *Industry is categorized by Bloomberg as BI North America Large Regional Banking Competitive Peers Data below are based on FY2015 PacWest is a mid-size regional bank that is trading at Company Market Forward P/Tangible 15.4x forward P/E multiple. P/TBV is actually very high name Cap($mm) P/E book value compared with other competitors and is 88.6% higher Wells 246,500 11.85x 2.16x than industry average. PacWest’s NIM is exceptionally Fargo high in bank industry, which is 5.60% compared with Bank of 146,600 10.80x 1.10x industry average of 2.94. Revenue per branch is at the America lower end among all competitors listed above, which PNC 42,270 11.52x 1.59x could indicate the weaker operating efficiency compared Financials First 10,365 22.43x 2.22x with other competitors. PacWest’s ROE is also below Republican average mainly because PacWest maintains higher capital Bank ratio compared with others. East West 5,028 13.17x 2.29x Developments & Trends Bancorp PacWest 4,666 13.94x 2.41x Merge & Acquisition Bancorp Western 3,656 17.58x 2.87x Another trend that we have noticed is the increase in Alliance M&A activity within the banking industry.
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