March 12, 2006, ITB Berlin, Germany No. 1

S·P·A·C·E TOURISM© Robert A. Goehlich Dr.-Ing. Robert Alexander Goehlich www.goehlich.com

Content No. 2 ¾ Part I - Definition - Stages of ¾ Part II - Mass Space Tourism versus Individual Space Tourism - Tourist Attractions in Space - Space - Space Nutrition

¾ Part III - Example: Economic Research of Space Tourism ¾Part IV - Future of Space Tourism No. 3

Part I: Definition and Stages of Space Tourism

Definition Definition of Space Tourism (Version I) No. 4 „Space tourism is the term broadly applied to the concept of paying customers traveling beyond Earth's atmosphere.“

Example: Dennis Tito (ISS in April 2001) can be seen as the first space tourist. Definition Definition of Space Tourism (Version II) No. 5 “Space tourism can be defined to include not only the vehicles that take public passengers into space, but also from the perspective of the "destination" paradigm. As such, the industry can be envisioned to include not only earth- based attractions that simulate the space experience such as space theme parks, space training camps, virtual reality facilities, multi-media interactive games and telerobotic moon rovers controlled from Earth, but also parabolic flights, vertical suborbital flights, orbital flights lasting up to 3 days, or week-long stays at a floating space hotel, including participatory educational, research and entertainment experiences as well as space sports competitions (i.e. space Olympics).” ( Institute, 2002)

Example: Space camp at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center at the Russian Star City. Training in a neutral buoyancy hydrolab for $7000 is shown in the picture.

Definition Where does Space begin? No. 6 Definition varies between nations and organizations concerning different points of view. In this study, it is defined as 100 km above sea level. 100 km: no aerodynamic forces 81 km: astronaut wings (US DoD) 45 km: rocket engine necessary 32 km: turbo ramjet necessary 24 km: oxygen bottle necessary 20 km: pressurized cabin necessary 16 km: pressure suit necessary 5,3 km: supplemental oxygen necessary 3 km: human is not operating efficiently Stages of Space Tourism Stage 1: Nature Attractions and Others No. 7 This stage includes all natural phenomenon or industrial products in direct correlation to space, which are normally low-priced to observe or to experience.

Example: Natural Phenomenon Such as starry sky, shooting star, northern lights, eclipse of the sun, lunar eclipse, etc.

Example: Industrial Products Such as , space proofed pen, space proofed wrist watch, etc.

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 2: Terrestrial Tour No. 8

Example: Space Camps Space camps are mainly located at Huntsville, Alabama, and Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center at Russian Star City nearby Moscow. Duration is from two to four days and it is offered one or more of the following attractions: training in a centrifuge for $1700, training in a neutral buoyancy hydrolab for $7000 or training in a Soyuz simulator for $8500. Stages of Space Tourism Stage 2: Terrestrial Tour No. 9

(movie)

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 3: Parabolic Flight No. 10

(ESA) Stages of Space Tourism Stage 3: Parabolic Flight No. 11

(movie)

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 4: High-altitude Flight No. 12 Passengers in a high- altitude aircraft at up to 25 km altitude can see the curvature of the Earth below and the dark sky of space above. Space Adventures, Inc. offers MiG- 25 flights for about $13 000. Alternatively, MiG-21, MiG- 23, MiG-29 and Su-30 can be used, too.

Example: High-altitude passenger in Russian Mig-25 (Space Adventures) Stages of Space Tourism Stage 5: Suborbital Flight No. 13 Suborbital space flight for tourism can be defined by the following term: “Customers go on a quick ballistic flight in a spacecraft into space, get a few minutes of weightlessness and then return to Earth, without reaching orbit.”

Example: Suborbital Flight by using Ascender (Bristol Space- planes)

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 5: Suborbital Flight No. 14

(movie) Stages of Space Tourism Stage 6: Orbital Flight No. 15 Orbital flights would allow passengers to watch different continents and many sunsets and sunrises. There would be plenty of time for experiences in weightlessness.

Example: Orbital Flight by using Kankoh Maru (Kawasaki)

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 6: Orbital Flight - Pax CompartmentNo. Design 16

(Isozaki et al.) Stages of Space Tourism Stage 6: Orbital Flight - Demonstrator No. 17

(JAXA)

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 7: Orbital Flight plus Hotel Stay No. 18 The first hotel would have zero gravity, but future designs call for a hotel that might rotate once per minute to create a gravitational pull one-third as strong as Earth's one.

Example: Orbital Flight to Rotating Space Hotel (Space Island Group) Stages of Space Tourism Stage 8: Moon Flight No. 19 When compared to a simple orbital flight, the complexity of the scenario increases significantly for a Moon trip. Total delta velocity ∆V required for the entire mission is of the order of 20 km/s. In the context of space tourism, Moon trips are unlikely in short term but might happen in long term. Example: Holiday on the Moon (ESA)

Stages of Space Tourism Stage 9: Mars Flight No. 20 USA, Russia and China have plans to send astronauts to Mars. The main problem, the reduction of travel time, has not yet been resolved. It is highly unlikely that space tourists in coming decades would fly to Mars, but not impossible.

Example: Holiday on the Mars (Phil Smith) Stages of Space Tourism Stage 10: Titan Flight and Beyond No. 21 Space tourism flights to other planets beside Mars are not imaginable with even improved assumed rocket propulsion technology such as fusion or fission engines due to still very long travel times.

Example: Saturn as seen from Titan ( Novaspace)

Stages on Mass Space Tourism Summary No. 22

Stage Description Price Realized 1 Nature Attractions + Others $0-$500 yes 2 Terrestrial Tour $22-$8500 yes 3 Parabolic Flight $5000 yes 4 High-altitude Flight $13 000 yes 5 Suborbital Flight ($100 000) no 6 Orbital Flight ($300 000) no 7 Orbital Flight + Hotel Stay ($400 000) no Definition 2 8 Moon Flight (?) no 9 Mars Flight (?) no Definition 1 10 Titan Flight and Beyond (?) no No. 23

Part II: Frame of Space Tourism

Mass versus Individual Space Tourism Summary No. 24

Individual Space Tourism Mass Space Tourism

• A few tourists per year. • Thousands of tourists per year. • Prices would stay high due to low • Potential for low prices due to high launch frequency. launch frequency. • Mostly Expendable Launch Vehicles • Mostly Reusable Launch Vehicles • Good advertising for space tourism • High program investment costs. Tourist Attractions in Space No. 25

¾ Watch the Earth ¾ Watch Space ¾ Play with food ¾ Float around ¾ Receive astronaut wings ¾ Make videos and pictures ¾ Wedding ¾ Ceremony

Space Advertising No. 26 High levels of technology, investments and health required for manned missions cause people to associate space with success, elitism and exclusivity. The stronger the associations concerning a product, the easier it is to sell, because space has a natural capability to sell itself.

Omega’s “only watch Givenchy’s launcher Lego’s “Life on Mars” worn on the Moon” shaped perfume bottle Space Nutrition No. 27 Early flights showed that astronauts did not eat enough due to lack of appetite. The presentation of more appetizing and varied food has been realized in the last decade. However, for Space Shuttle missions food has still been served in a condensed gelatinous form.

Example: Typical Space Shuttle Menu (Lane, Schoeller) Breakfast Lunch Dinner Dried pears Tuna Shrimp cocktail Beef patty Tortilla Beefsteak Seasoned Banana Potatoes au scrambled eggs pudding gratin

Oatmeal with Shortbread Asparagus brown sugar cookies Orange juice Almonds Strawberries - Grape drink Lemonade

No. 28

Part III: Economic Research of Space Tourism Space Tourism Research Passenger Demand No. 29

Space Tourism Research Correlation to Ticket Price No. 30

Production Cost Development Cost Year of Full Operational Fleet ROI

Ticket Launch Rate Price Cash Flow

Fleet Life-cycle Costs/Receipts Year of Initial Operational Capability Ticket Cost Space Tourism Research Correlation to Ticket Price No. 31

Suborbital Market Orbital Market

Production Cost Production Cost Development Cost Development Cost Year of Full Year of Full Operational Fleet Operational Fleet ROI ROI Ticket Ticket Launch Rate Launch Rate Price Price Cash Flow á0? Cash Flow Fleet Life-cycle Fleet Life-cycle Costs/Receipts Costs/Receipts Year of Initial Year of Initial Operational Capability Ticket Cost Operational Capability Ticket Cost

Representative Representative Tourist RLV: Tourist RLV: „Hopper Plus“ „Kankoh Maru Plus“

Space Tourism Research Used Tools No. 32

TRANSCOST 7.0 Model TRASIM 2.0 Model FINANCE 1.0 Model

A handbook containing A program processing A program to determine 180 graphs and 30 about 380 input values to business performances tables to determine determine detailed life- of investigated vehicles. rough life-cycle costs on cycle costs on an annual an average basis. basis. Space Tourism Research Optimized Launch Rate (Hopper Plus) No. 33

20 10 Break-even Point 18 ROI 9 Average Total Launch Cost 16 8

14 7

12 6

10 5

8 4 Ave. Total Launch Cost [M$/flight] Break-even Point [years] or ROI [%]

6 3

Negativ influence4 due to Negativ influence2 due to non-performance of saturation of annual 2 1 „Economy of Scales“ effect Optimized passenger demand Launch Rate 0 0 50 75 100 125 150 Launch Rate [flights/year]

Space Tourism Research Price Strategy No. 34 Monopoly Oligopoly Oligopoly at a Profit Space Tourism Research Promising Steps... No. 35

Hot0 Spot No. 1 Hot0 Spot No. 2 Hot0 Spot No. 3

Optimized Period

Space Tourism Textbooks No. 36

ISBN 1-894959-50-7 ISBN 3-936846-29-4 ISBN 3-936231-36-2 Released: March 2006 CG Publishing, Canada No. 37

Part IV: Future of Space Tourism

Past of Space Tourism Privately-Financed Events No. 38

Shuttleworth ISS Flight SpaceShipOne X Prize Flight SpaceShipOne X Prize Flight (April, 2002) (September 29, 2004) (October 4, 2004)

Tito ISS Flight SpaceShipOne 100 km Flight (April, 2001) (June 21, 2004)

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Future of Mass Space Tourism (= regular flights / air passenger type) No. 39

tic Start of optimis realistic Suborbital Flights within Today 15 years and pes Orbital Flights within 25 Mass simistic Space years might be feasible Tourism is not „We are not really existing ready for space tourism yet.“

Future of Individual Space Tourism (= non-regular flights / explorer type) No. 40

tic Continued flights to ISS optimis realistic and start of Today Suborbital Flights within Individual pes 5 years might be simistic Space feasible Tourism is existing „No further flights to International Space Station.“ The hope… SpaceShipOne reached 100 km (July 21, 2004)No. 41

Development of Space Tourism No. 42 No. 43

…Thank you