The Scope for Enhancing Public Transport in Australian Capital Cities

By Garry Glazebrook

Introduction

Dr. Garry Glazebrook, Senior Lecturer at the University of Technology, , writes, “The rise in petrol prices in Australia has accelerated the trend back to public transport evident over the last decade. But this has caused overcrowding of trains and buses, leading some to question whether our public transport systems can cope. All our capital cities have significant network capacity in the short term, and with increased rolling stock and the expansion plans already underway or planned could double total patronage in Sydney and by 2021, and triple it in , and . Australian cities are in fact well placed to cope with the paradigm shift occurring away from low density car-oriented growth, provided they continue to invest in public transport and support this with appropriate pricing and other policies.”

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The Scope for Enhancing Public Transport in Australian Capital Cities By Dr. Garry Glazebrook

Public has been undergoing resurgence for at least the last decade, as a result of increasing population, urban densities and road congestion. The steep rise in petrol prices in the last eighteen months has accelerated this growth:

In South-East , patronage grew 50% in the seven years to 2005/6

Rail patronage in Melbourne increased 23% in the last two years

Rail patronage in Perth grew by 41% in the year to March 2008, following the opening of the new line to Mandurah.

There is also evidence that fuel use has declined in the last year, implying lower car use. Similar trends are evident in the United States, where transit use has outpaced highway vehicle miles since 1995, and in the last year overall transit use grew by 10.3% for , 5.7% for commuter rail and 4.4% for heavy rail (APTA, 2008). At the same time vehicle miles travelled on all U.S. public roads for March 2008 fell 4.3 percent as compared with March 2007, the first such decline since 1979 and the sharpest yearly drop for any month in Federal Highway Administration history (US DOT 2008).

This sudden rise in public transport use has temporarily used up the spare capacity on our trains, trams and buses. The following analysis therefore examines recent developments in public transport in Australia, and estimates the scope for enhancing it in the short and the longer term, as a first step in examining what contribution it could reasonably make to reducing oil dependence and Greenhouse Gas emissions and to improving sustainability. It focuses on peak hours and on the approaches to our major city centres, particularly by rail, where most of the capacity constraints on public transport occur. The estimates of the potential for increasing overall public transport use are therefore conservative.

Potential to expand peak capacity Sydney

Sydney has Australia’s largest but most congested urban rail network, catering for over 280 million boardings per annum. Currently there are 102 trains arriving at Central Station in the busiest hour (7:30am-8:29am) on eight tracks. Theoretical capacity is 160 trains, but merging of tracks and timetable requirements reduce this to a practical limit of around 120 trains. Not all trains arriving in the morning peak are full-length (8 cars); there is therefore an estimated 20% spare peak hour track capacity on the network at present.

In addition, the Epping – Chatswood line will open by 2009, a number of “clearways” projects have recently been completed or are under construction, and the South-West rail line is due to open in 2012. An order for 122 New Outer Suburban Railcars is currently being completed, and 650 new railcars are on order for delivery starting from 2011, which will allow retirement of 500 old non air-conditioned carriages and further expansion of the fleet. There is therefore scope to increase peak capacity of the total system by at least 20% within the next four years.

Beyond 2012 the main plan by the government is to construct a series of new “metro” lines, with the North-West Metro due to be opened in 2015 - 2017, with three other potential lines (Maroubra, Parramatta to CBD and Northern Beaches) under consideration. Previously announced plans included the Metropolitan Rail Expansion Plan which involved a second harbour crossing and would have added a further 40% peak capacity to the network.

There could also be substantial enhancement of bus capacity through , bus priority and larger buses. Street capacity in the CBD is an issue, but can be addressed through the extension of Sydney’s light rail network as proposed by the City of Sydney (2008). Overall the peak capacity of the total system could be increased by at least 60% by 2021 through appropriate investment strategies.

Melbourne

As noted above, Melbourne has experienced a major lift in public transport use in recent years. Additional trains and trams have been ordered urgently to cope, while free early morning travel has been offered to spread the peak. The Eddington report (2008) recommended a new underground rail line through the CBD to relieve rail congestion, although Mees (2008) argues that the existing network has significant room for expanded services with changed operational arrangements and closer headways between trains. Either way, a potential expansion of peak hour train capacity of the order of 80% is feasible.

Additional capacity on the tram network could be achieved by adding more and longer trams – street capacity has not yet been reached, while low floor entry on new vehicles and “superstops” raise capacity compared with older style trams. Bus services could easily be expanded with addition of more vehicles, but these operate mainly in outer suburban areas.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s public transport network has been expanded significantly in recent years, primarily through the building of a busway network and construction of the airport rail line. Further busways (Inner Northern and Eastern) are under construction or planned, while several enhancements of the rail system are also underway or planned (e.g. duplication and extension of the Gold Coast Line; duplication of the Ferny Grove Line; Springwood line).

However the rail system will reach capacity in the CBD within a few years, especially on the Merivale Bridge, and a new underground river crossing and CBD line is needed to fully exploit the potential of the network. With such a project, there would be six tracks entering the CBD (as opposed to 4 at present) and total peak train capacity of the rail network could be doubled by 2021, and passenger capacity increased even more given not all trains are currently full length (6 cars) – see Figure 1: Potential Peak Train Growth in Brisbane.

Adelaide

The modernisation and extension of the Glenelg tram led to a large increase in patronage, and helped stimulate the government to announce a $2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s public transport system (SA Government, 2008), including extension of the light rail network, electrification of three of the rail lines, and expansion of the bus system. This will transform the public transport system, enhancing comfort, capacity and passenger appeal. The target is to double the share of passenger-kilometres on public transport from 5% to 10% by 2018. Clearly there is scope for significant further expansion of this target in the future. A realistic target for 2030 could be a mode share of 20%, only slightly higher than the current situation for Sydney.

Perth

Perth has seen the most dramatic upgrade in its public transport system of any Australian city in the last fifteen years, with the rail system electrified and then greatly expanded. The most recent expansion was the new line to Mandurah and the CBD underground. While the new line and the Northern Suburbs line operate (partly) with 6-car trains, other lines use 2, 3 or 4 car sets. There is thus the potential to triple the peak capacity on the overall rail network through a combination of increased frequencies and increased train lengths. In addition, the State Government has announced major new plans for additional rail and light rail lines. See Figure 2: Potential Growth of Rail Capacity in Perth.

Overall Potential

The above analysis focuses on our five biggest cities, which between them had 61% of our population in 2004 and are expected to grow by 45% by mid-century, with an even higher share (63%) of national population by that point (see table 1). This highlights the significance of urban public transport to the national agenda.

Table 1: Australian Population Projections Population (‘000) Growth % City 2004 2021 2051 2004 - 2051 Sydney 4225 4871 5608 33% Melbourne 3593 4252 5041 40% Brisbane 1778 2404 3355 89% Perth 1455 1875 2454 69% Adelaide 1123 1201 1203 7% Cities sub-total 12174 14603 17661 45% Rest of Australia 7917 9268 10509 33% Australia 20091 23871 28170 40% % in 5 largest cities 61% 61% 63% Source: ABS 32220.0: Population Projections 2004 – 2101

Public transport is likely to play an increasing role in our next biggest cities in the future as well. For example the Gold Coast, our sixth largest city and fastest growing, is about to install a mass transit system along the high density coastal strip. Light rail systems are also under consideration in Canberra and Darwin, while cities like Newcastle are experiencing urban consolidation and regeneration of their historic city centres, providing a base for expansion of mass transit systems in the future.

Conclusion

Major upgrades to public transport are now underway across our capital cities which will lift both capacity and quality. For example all new rail and bus rollingstock is air conditioned, while recently built infrastructure such as Parramatta interchange, the Brisbane busway stations, the new rail stations in Perth or Melbourne’s “super” tram stops are of much higher quality than in the past. Some cities (Perth, Brisbane, Melbourne) are moving to fully integrated smart card ticketing.

In addition, major urban development is now increasingly focused around “Transit Oriented Developments” (TOD’s), such as Kelvin Grove on the Inner Northern Busway in Brisbane, Macquarie Park in Sydney, and Subiaco in Perth. The CBD’s of Australian cities continue to grow strongly in floorspace. For example the Docklands precinct in Melbourne, immediately adjacent to the refurbished Southern Cross Railway station, has been a major mixed use development which has transformed the city centre, greatly expanded floorspace and employment and created new residential and entertainment areas. In future, major employers will be required to report on greenhouse gas emissions, and will be seeking locations which maximise use of sustainable modes (walking, cycling and public transport). Locations in TODs and near public transport hubs will become paramount.

These trends will further accelerate growth in public transport use. However the issue will be whether sufficient trains, trams and buses can be deployed to cope with demand without sacrificing comfort, and whether the necessary infrastructure can be built fast enough to cope.

The tables below provide estimates of the potential enhancements in rail public transport capacity approaching the CBD in the morning peak hour in the very short, short and medium term, for each major city, and the key infrastructure upgrades assumed to be completed to enable that to occur. This represents the most critical part of the rail systems. The potential increase in all-day patronage could be significantly higher than this given that there is substantial spare capacity generally in the off-peak periods and in the counter-peak directions during peak periods.

Table 2: Potential Increase in Peak Hour Rail Capacity to CBD areas Very Short Term Short Term Medium Term City (end 2010) (end 2015) (end 2021) Sydney 20% 35% 60% Melbourne 20% 40% 80% Brisbane 25% 70% 125% Perth 25% 83% 162% Adelaide 20% 80% 120% Note: Increases measured compared with capacity operated in mid 2008. Estimates allow for lengthening of trains as well as increased train numbers. Major infrastructure works assumed are detailed in Table 3: Assumed Infrastructure Upgrades.

Table 3: Assumed Infrastructure Upgrades Very Short Term (end Medium Term (end City Short Term (end 2015) 2010) 2021) Epping-Chatswood South-West Rail Link*; Line*; Riverstone Line North West Metro*; Cronulla Line Sydney duplication*; Southern Light Rail Duplication*; CBD Light Rail Line; Line Light Rail Bondi Beach Light Rail Extension Selected duplication / Various tram and rail New CBD Melbourne triplication works* extensions* Underground Link Gold Coast Cross River and CBD Duplication and Springfield Line; Line; Brisbane extension*; Corinda – Darra Ferny Grove Quadruplication duplication duplication project Station Lengthening on Triplication Whitfords Midland, Fremantle and – Perth; Perth Armadale Lines; Light Rail network Light Rail network (Stage 2) (Stage 1) Completion of Glenelg line Electrification of some electrification Adelaide extension* lines* program and light rail extensions* * Items (in bold) are already committed.

Accordingly it is considered feasible by 2021 to double the total public transport travel task (passenger-kilometres) in Sydney and Melbourne, and to treble it in our smaller capitals (Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide), with significant increases also in smaller cities like the Gold Coast, Canberra and Newcastle which currently have a small mode share for public transport.

Beyond 2021 further substantial increases are possible with suitable policies. While it is clear that mass transit will not perform the dominant role in Australian cities that it does in much denser cities like Hong Kong, Tokyo, or Paris, it is likely to play a much more significant role in the future than it has in the recent past, depending on:

oil prices and carbon trading

urban consolidation and land use policies

housing preferences and demographic changes

locational preferences by firms

government policies (eg parking, congestion pricing etc)

transport infrastructure investment priorities

Evidence from both Australia and overseas suggests that the paradigm of car-oriented, low density cities is changing. Those cities and countries which fail to adapt to the new paradigm of a more sustainable urban form, with a much greater share of travel by walking, cycling and mass transit, may face substantial economic and social difficulties. The change in sentiment is most apparent in the United States, where there has been a significant shift to mass transit and to “smart growth”, a trend being picked up in the popular press (Johnson, 2008, Farrar, 2008). Cities like Dallas, Texas, which is currently doubling its light rail network and planning 250 miles (400 km) of light rail and commuter rail systems, illustrate this well.

Australian cities are better placed than most US cities in that they have a residual rail-based infrastructure to build on and build around. Despite rapid growth on our public transport systems in recent times, there is spare infrastructure capacity available in all of our cities. Patronage, even in peak hours, could be significantly increased over the next few years with the provision of additional rollingstock. Beyond that, there is very substantial capacity for growth implied by the projects already commenced or in planning stages. The challenge for our cities is to make the most of this heritage and to start investing appropriately for the future.

References American Public Transportation Association (2008): “Public Transportation Ridership Statistics” August 11, 2008.

City of Sydney (2008): “Sustainable Sydney 2030”.

Farrar, L. (2008): “Is America’s suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?” CNN.com/technology.

Government of South Australia (2008): “Budget Statement, Public Transport” June 2008.

Johnson, A. (2008): “Jampacked Transit Systems running on Fumes”. MSNBC, June 2008.

US Department of Transport (2008): “Americans Driving at Historic Lows”. Office of Public Affairs. 23 June 2008.

Information about the author

Garry Glazebrook has over 14 years’ experience in consulting and 15 years in government policy positions, and currently teaches in urban planning at the University of Technology, Sydney. His qualifications include a PhD and masters degrees in Urban Planning and Operations Research, and he has published widely in the fields of transport and planning. He is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia, the International Union of Public Transport, and the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and has a particular interest in how to make our cities more sustainable. Email address: [email protected]

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