Tamweel Covid Index Report

Tamweel’s Covid Index August 2020 We are Tamweel. A David in a world of Goliaths. Tamweel’s What is it? • The Tamweel Covid Index is a performance tracker of 28 UK quoted leisure and hospitality businesses. Which month on Covid Index month, will illustrate how average share price performance of these companies compares to their pre-Covid levels. How does it work?

A new measure • The Index tracks the average daily share price movements of a cohort of quoted leisure and hospitality businesses before, during and after the start of Covid. It will provide an indication of investor sentiment and sector performance as operators of investor navigate their way through and out of the pandemic. • The Index is anchored at 31 December 2019 with a score of 100. This date has been selected as a suitable pre-Covid sentiment and benchmark, on the basis that the UK leisure and hospitality sectors remained unaffected by Covid at that date. • An Index score of 70 demonstrates that shares of companies in the cohort are, on average, trading at 70% (or 30% below) confidence of their pre-Covid, 31st December 2019 levels. An Index Score of 110 demonstrates that shares of companies in the cohort across the UK’s are, on average, trading at 110% of (or 10% above) their pre-Covid, 31st December 2019 levels. • The cohort is broken down by sector and by company to allow tracking of share price performance on a more granular leisure and basis. The table below illustrates the month end results of the Covid Index from December 2019 to August 2020. hospitality Tamweel Covid Index – Monthly* from December 2019 December January February March April May June July August sectors 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Covid Index 100 102 89 51 58 61 59 51 57

* Index is calculated as at close of trading for the last trading day of the month Tamweel’s Restaurants, Pubs and Bars Hotels and Hostels Covid Index Made up of 28, UK quoted QSR / Takeaway / Grab & Go companies from across the Food Service leisure and hospitality Cinemas sectors Tasty PLC Competitive Socialising The cohort is broken down into the following categories: Gyms - Restaurants, pubs and bars - Hotels and hostels - Competitive socialising - QSR / Takeaway / Grab & Go - Food service - Cinemas - Gyms Tamweel Covid Index August 2020

Tamweel Covid Index and FTSE All Share Index – Daily movements since 31 December 2019 120 UK daily Covid UK PM announces pubs “Eat Out to Help cases drop to UK imposes and restaurants in England Out” during August less than half of th lockdown can reopen on 4 July 100 peak levels

80 WHO declares 78 Covid a global public health 60 emergency 57

December 2019 December 40

Opening of bowling alleys, soft play 20 centres and skating rinks delayed to

Index values (benchmarked to 100 at 31 at 100 to (benchmarked values Index mid August due to Covid case spike

Tamweel’s take (1 of 2) Tamweel Covid Index FTSE All Share Index • August’s Covid Index of 57 represents a recovery from July, with the index up 12% on the month reflecting an improvement in the share price performance of the quoted leisure & hospitality operators represented in the Index. This strong performance is significantly ahead of the broader FTSE All Share Index which increased by 1.8% on the month. Some of this improvement will be driven by sentiment as a result of positive progress with respect to vaccine trials both in the UK and globally, with an expectation that clinical data for the Oxford vaccine may be put to UK regulators before the end of the year; with Astra Zeneca and Pfizer doing the same in the US. • c. 85,000 outlets in the UK, including many that are operated by companies in the Covid Index cohort, benefitted from the Government’s “Eat Out To Help Out” scheme throughout August. It has been met with widespread praise, and has helped to drive an improvement in LFL trading for businesses with a significant food-led offering. JD Wetherspoons, for instance, reported LFL trading for the 44 days to 16th August at 83% of prior year levels, with food sales up significantly on the back of EOTHO. • It will be some time before we can establish whether EOTHO will have a lasting impact on consumer behaviour, but anecdotally the scheme appears to have encouraged people to take their first tentative steps back into leisure and hospitality venues across the country. Tamweel Covid Index August 2020

80 WHO declares 78 Covid a global public health 60 emergency 57

December 2019 December 40

Opening of bowling alleys, soft play 20 centres and skating rinks delayed to

Index values (benchmarked to 100 at 31 at 100 to (benchmarked values Index mid August due to Covid case spike

Tamweel Covid Index FTSE All Share Index Tamweel’s take (2 of 2) • The loosening of lockdown restrictions also benefitted Competitive Socialising businesses, with bowling alleys in the UK finally being allowed to open their doors from mid-August. Cinemas were also relieved to be able to screen their first summer blockbuster release: Tenet, in the month of August. • Hotels groups, particularly those with diverse estates have had a relatively strong trading month, with IHG reporting that demand is slowly returning and rural operators benefitting from the staycation boom. However, London hotels in early August were continuing to struggle, with STR reporting that occupancy levels in London were at 25%, with some hotels as low as 10%. • As developed economies around the world continue to ease national restrictions, but implement harsher ones on a more local basis, many operators may be looking at a period of playing ‘whack a mole’ with their estates, juggling various closures whilst government support taps are expected to be turned off. With furlough ending in October and the lease forfeiture moratorium scheduled to end in September, we hold a collective breath on liquidity levels and anticipate that there may be more “rainy day” equity fund raisings to follow in the autumn, particularly if share prices continue their upward trajectory. Tamweel Covid Index 84 83 by sector 76

61 59 59 August 2020 57 57 57 55 55 53 53 52 51 51 51 49 51 47 46 44

This graph illustrates the August 2020 Index 37 for the sub sectors within the cohort, but also includes July and June for comparative 31 purpose.

Covid Indices for every sector showed improvement this month, with QSR / Takeaway / Grab & Go continuing to be the sector the highest Index Value of 83 in August.

The strongest sector recovery this month was Tamweel Covid Cinemas Competitive Food Service Gyms Hotels & QSR / Restaurants, Index Socialising Hostels Takeaway / pubs and bars for Cinemas, driven by Cineworld’s recently Grab & Go battered share price recovering by 65% June July Aug primarily on news of the US scrapping 2020 2020 2020 restrictive antitrust rules which amongst other things blocked studios from owning cinemas. Tamweel Tamweel Covid Index 57 City Pub Group 31 Comptoir Group 45 Covid Index Fuller, Smith & Turner 55 J D Wetherspoon 62 Loungers 64 Restaurants, pubs by company Mitchells & Butlers 37 and bars Revolution Bars Group 23 August 2020 Tasty 84 The Fulham Shore 81 The Heavitree Brewery 107 The Restaurant Group 35 Young & Co's Brewery 64 This chart illustrates the August 2020 Index Hostelworld Group 51 for each company in the cohort. InterContinental Hotels Group 85 PPHE Hotel Group 61 Hotels & Hostels The sector each company is categorised in is Safestay 38 shown on the right hand side of the chart. Whitbread 52 Escape Hunt 50 It should be noted that the following stocks Hollywood Bowl Group 53 Competitive have relatively low market capitalisations and Ten Entertainment Group 42 Socialising are lightly traded so are subject to more Brighton Pier Group 66 volatile price movements than the shares of Domino's Pizza Group 105 businesses with larger market capitalisations Greggs 62 QSR / Takeaway / Grab & Go Compass Group 65 and greater liquidity: Food Service SSP Group 38 Cineworld Group 29 - Comptoir Group Cinemas Everyman Media Group 46 - Tasty The Gym Group 55 Gyms - The Heavitree Brewery - Escape Hunt 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Index Values at 28 August 2020 Appendix

Sectoral breakdown, methodology and contact details Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

Restaurants, 120 Pubs & Bars 100 80 August 2020 60

Index value Index 40

04/02 19/05 04/08 31/12 07/01 14/01 21/01 28/01 11/02 18/02 25/02 03/03 10/03 17/03 24/03 31/03 07/04 14/04 21/04 28/04 05/05 12/05 26/05 02/06 09/06 16/06 23/06 30/06 07/07 14/07 21/07 28/07 11/08 18/08 25/08

Tamweel Covid Index Restaurants, pubs and bars Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Restaurants, pubs & bars 100 101 91 48 53 58 59 51 57 1.2% (9.9%) (46.9%) 8.6% 10.8% 1.8% (14.8%) 13.4%

By company City Pub Group 100 87 85 31 40 43 45 33 31 (13.3%) (1.9%) (63.2%) 27.2% 8.7% 4.3% (27.0%) (6.3%) Comptoir Group 100 106 97 47 47 52 52 42 45 5.9% (8.8%) (51.6%) 0.0% 10.7% 1.2% (20.2%) 7.5% Fuller, Smith & Turner 100 99 88 70 73 73 80 61 55 (1.0%) (10.9%) (21.0%) 4.5% 0.9% 9.1% (23.4%) (10.2%) J D Wetherspoon 100 93 81 53 57 68 60 51 62 (6.7%) (13.3%) (34.3%) 7.0% 20.3% (11.5%) (16.0%) 21.2% Loungers 100 122 104 46 43 63 62 53 64 22.0% (14.8%) (56.0%) (5.7%) 45.6% (1.5%) (14.2%) 21.4% Mitchells & Butlers 100 87 73 40 39 39 41 33 37 (12.9%) (16.3%) (45.7%) (2.4%) 2.0% 3.9% (18.6%) 12.5% Revolution Bars Group 100 104 87 23 28 49 34 24 23 3.6% (15.8%) (73.6%) 22.5% 74.2% (30.2%) (28.7%) (5.9%) Tasty 100 150 126 64 82 78 104 99 84 50.2% (15.9%) (49.3%) 28.6% (5.6%) 34.1% (5.3%) (14.8%) The Fulham Shore 100 92 90 41 45 49 59 50 81 (8.2%) (2.2%) (54.7%) 10.4% 9.1% 20.8% (15.4%) 61.5% The Heavitree Brewery 100 101 101 74 74 77 77 77 107 1.2% 0.0% (27.1%) 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 38.5% The Restaurant Group 100 79 65 26 33 37 35 27 35 (20.8%) (17.9%) (60.4%) 28.5% 13.1% (7.6%) (21.6%) 27.7% Young & Co's Brewery 100 95 98 68 71 70 62 56 64 (5.3%) 3.2% (30.6%) 4.7% (1.3%) (12.0%) (9.0%) 14.8% Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

Hotels & 120 Hostels 100 80 August 2020 60

Index value value Index 40

19/05 31/12 07/01 14/01 21/01 28/01 04/02 11/02 18/02 25/02 03/03 10/03 17/03 24/03 31/03 07/04 14/04 21/04 28/04 05/05 12/05 26/05 02/06 09/06 16/06 23/06 30/06 07/07 14/07 21/07 28/07 04/08 11/08 18/08 25/08

Tamweel Covid Index Hotels & Hostels Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company

Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Hotels & Hostels 100 105 85 52 63 60 55 52 57 5.0% (19.5%) (38.0%) 19.3% (3.8%) (8.2%) (5.5%) 9.8%

By company Hostelworld Group 100 121 83 43 61 61 51 48 51 21.0% (31.6%) (48.5%) 43.5% (0.3%) (16.4%) (6.0%) 6.3% InterContinental Hotels Group 100 90 83 68 69 74 68 68 85 (10.0%) (8.2%) (18.3%) 2.6% 7.3% (7.9%) (1.4%) 25.3% PPHE Hotel Group 100 108 94 53 69 66 59 58 61 8.1% (13.0%) (44.0%) 30.3% (3.9%) (10.7%) (1.8%) 5.1% Safestay 100 114 83 37 52 48 52 43 38 13.8% (27.0%) (55.6%) 41.7% (8.8%) 9.7% (17.6%) (10.7%) Whitbread 100 92 80 63 61 52 46 45 52 (7.8%) (12.9%) (22.2%) (1.7%) (15.2%) (12.1%) (1.9%) 16.0% Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

Competitive 120 Socialising 100 80 August 2020 60

40 Index value Index

25/02 16/06 31/12 07/01 14/01 21/01 28/01 04/02 11/02 18/02 03/03 10/03 17/03 24/03 31/03 07/04 14/04 21/04 28/04 05/05 12/05 19/05 26/05 02/06 09/06 23/06 30/06 07/07 14/07 21/07 28/07 04/08 11/08 18/08 25/08

Tamweel Covid Index Competitive Socialising Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company

Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Competitive Socialising 100 106 90 49 58 60 61 51 53 5.6% (15.1%) (45.8%) 19.1% 3.8% 1.1% (15.3%) 2.4%

By company Escape Hunt 100 97 76 23 52 45 55 45 50 (3.1%) (21.6%) (69.1%) 120.0% (12.1%) 22.4% (18.3%) 10.3% Hollywood Bowl Group 100 103 85 52 57 63 54 47 53 2.8% (17.1%) (38.5%) 9.4% 10.4% (14.1%) (12.9%) 11.5% Ten Entertainment Group 100 103 85 58 52 60 56 44 42 3.3% (17.9%) (31.6%) (9.4%) 13.6% (5.6%) (21.8%) (5.1%) Brighton Pier Group 100 119 113 61 70 72 77 69 66 19.2% (5.6%) (46.2%) 15.9% 2.7% 6.7% (10.0%) (4.2%) Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

QSR / Takeaway 120 / Grab & Go 100 80 August 2020 60

Index value Index 40

19/05 04/08 31/12 07/01 14/01 21/01 28/01 04/02 11/02 18/02 25/02 03/03 10/03 17/03 24/03 31/03 07/04 14/04 21/04 28/04 05/05 12/05 26/05 02/06 09/06 16/06 23/06 30/06 07/07 14/07 21/07 28/07 11/08 18/08 25/08

Tamweel Covid Index QSR / Takeaway / Grab & Go Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company

Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

QSR / Takeaway / 100 98 92 79 94 96 84 76 83 (2.2%) (6.3%) (13.3%) 17.8% 2.9% (13.2%) (9.5%) 9.8% Grab & Go

By company Domino's Pizza Group 100 98 92 89 107 112 97 100 105 (2.4%) (5.3%) (4.1%) 21.2% 4.5% (13.7%) 2.7% 5.3% Greggs 100 98 91 70 80 80 70 52 62 (1.9%) (7.3%) (22.8%) 13.5% 0.9% (12.3%) (26.2%) 18.6% Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

Food Service 120 August 2020 100 80

40 Index value Index

Tamweel Covid Index Food Service Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company

Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Food Service 100 99 84 57 57 53 49 44 51 (0.8%) (15.1%) (32.2%) (0.3%) (7.3%) (6.8%) (11.4%) 17.3%

By company Compass Group 100 99 91 67 71 63 59 56 65 (0.7%) (8.9%) (26.1%) 5.7% (11.4%) (6.1%) (5.5%) 16.2% SSP Group 100 99 78 47 43 43 40 32 38 (0.9%) (21.3%) (39.3%) (8.8%) (0.5%) (7.8%) (20.1%) 19.4% Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

Cinemas 120 August 2020 100 80

40 Index value Index

Tamweel Covid Index Cinemas Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company

Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Cinemas 100 101 92 40 46 55 47 31 37 0.6% (8.7%) (56.8%) 14.8% 20.5% (15.2%) (33.1%) 20.3%

By company Cineworld Group 100 81 71 23 30 39 28 17 29 (19.1%) (12.5%) (68.0%) 31.9% 28.9% (28.3%) (36.9%) 65.1% Everyman Media Group 100 120 113 57 61 71 65 45 46 20.3% (6.1%) (49.8%) 7.9% 16.4% (8.1%) (31.5%) 2.9% Daily Sub-Sector Index Values

Gyms 120 August 2020 100 80

Index value Index 40

24/03 21/04 31/12 07/01 14/01 21/01 28/01 04/02 11/02 18/02 25/02 03/03 10/03 17/03 31/03 07/04 14/04 28/04 05/05 12/05 19/05 26/05 02/06 09/06 16/06 23/06 30/06 07/07 14/07 21/07 28/07 04/08 11/08 18/08 25/08

Tamweel Covid Index Gyms Monthly Index Values and month on month variances – by company

Index values by month Variances Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Gyms 100 102 89 49 58 62 53 46 55 2.2% (12.5%) (45.5%) 18.2% 8.3% (15.7%) (12.2%) 19.2%

By company The Gym Group 100 102 89 49 58 62 53 46 55 2.2% (12.5%) (45.5%) 18.2% 8.3% (15.7%) (12.2%) 19.2% Methodology

• The base line index figure of 100 represents the average share prices of each of the companies in the cohort as at 31st December 2019 (the “Benchmark Date”).

• The Benchmark Date is considered a suitable pre-Covid date, as the UK leisure and hospitality sectors remained unaffected by the virus as at that date with little impact (if any) on trading performance, prospects and share prices of companies in the cohort.

• The share prices for each company in the cohort at the close of the final trading day of each month are compared to their respective share prices at the Benchmark Date.

• The Company Index Value at each month end represents the over or under performance of the share price of a company in the cohort at that date when compared to its share price at the Benchmark Date.

• For example, a Company Index Value of 75 means that the company’s share price at the test date is 75% of (or 25% below) its share price at the Benchmark Date.

• The Tamweel Covid Index value at each month end represents an unweighted mean average of the Company Index Values of each company in the cohort. Meaning the over or under performance of smaller companies in the Index will have the same impact as larger companies in the Index.

• Tracking the movement of the share prices of quoted companies in the UK Leisure & Hospitality sector will provide an indication of the direction of travel of investor sentiment and sector performance as operators navigate through and out of the Covid pandemic.

• The cohort will be regularly reviewed and updated to reflect any quoted operators that may have delisted. All done. Thanks for reading!

Contact details

Ali Aneizi [email protected] +44 7770 234 560 Adam Spencer [email protected] +44 7736 843 964 Ben Merrifield [email protected] +44 7905 617 141 www.tamweelcapital.com Important information

This document (the “Document”) has been prepared for illustration purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell shares and is subject to the following limitations.

This Document has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information.

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Market data and prices prevailing at the close of business have been used (unless otherwise stated) in this Document and we have not performed a review to identify any impact of events occurring after the final market close date as identified in this Document. .

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