CLIMATE 2020 | New Leaders, New Approaches

New leaders,New approaches new

CLIMATE 2020 | New leaders, new approaches

CONTENTS 3

Contents

FOREWORDS 18 Can China lead the way? China is steadily acquiring a new reputation as a leader in 8 Mobilising the world green technology. What can it offer the world in the fight By António Guterres, Secretary-General, United Nations against climate change? By Jiang Kejun and Xiang Gao

10 Bringing everyone on board 22 EU – still a force for progress? By Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary, In a time of diplomatic dysfunction, can Europe advance UN Framework Convention on Climate Change climate action by example? By Manuela Mattheß

24 Investing in climate INTRODUCTION The financial community is often criticised for seeking quick returns. How do we encourage private finance for 12 New winners, new losers? climate action? By Fiona Reynolds By Natalie Samarasinghe, Executive Director, and Fred Carver, Head of Policy, United Nations 28 Model cities Association – UK Our planet demands fast action on climate change, yet the pace of national policymaking and implementation can be frustratingly slow. Can cities and their mayors show the NEW LEADERS way? By Mark Watts

14 The transition to a clean economy gains 32 Making icebergs our business momentum On 12 July, the Larsen C ice shelf broke away from In a fluid political landscape, who is best placed Antarctica. This poses the question: if a one-trillion-ton to lead climate change action on the ground? chunk of ice crashes into the sea, does anyone hear it? By Emily Farnworth By Lise Kingo

CLIMATE 2020 4 CONTENTS

34 Abandoning oil 60 The UN’s best allies are in the business sector How do countries whose wealth is built on fossil To tackle climate change, we need to reinvent our growth fuels transition to a low-carbon, sustainable future? model and recognise that the UN and business need each By Eckart Woertz and Luigi Carafa other desperately. By Veronica Lie

38 Technology: disruption needed 62 Tackling apathy and denial Can technology enable us to switch to sustainable Why do so many people switch off when it comes to energy in time to avoid global climate catastrophe? climate change? How can psychology help to generate a By Varun Sivaram more constructive response? By Renee Lertzman

65 Holding emitters to account NEW APPROACHES What legal recourse can be brought to bear on those countries or organisations that flout the Paris Agreement? 42 Positive counteraction By Richard Lord Who defines Trump’s impact on the Paris Agreement? You do. By Raj Thamotheram NEW CHALLENGES 48 Asia and the Pacific: climate change dilemma In a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, 68 Political shifts the poorest are most exposed. By Bambang Susantono Many argue that non-state actors will be the real drivers of climate action. How do you monitor, coordinate and 52 Energy storage and transmission maximise the potential of the diverse coalitions that lead Switching our energy use from fossil fuels to renewables the fight against climate change? By Paula Caballero will require a fundamental upgrade to the infrastructure that distributes and stores power. By Kamel Ben Naceur 71 The long view For centuries, humans have championed the democratic 56 Clean transport: where next for Europe? political system. But can it facilitate the radical change Can Europe hope to lead the world again in developing needed to stop the potentially annihilating effects of the clean transportation systems essential to avoid climate climate change? By AC Grayling catastrophe? By William Todts

CLIMATE 2020 CONTENTS 5

73 The fragility of cities As climate change drives more people from rural to urban settings, how will already fragile cities cope? What must be done to ensure that all cities are safe, sustainable places to live? By Janani Vivekananda

76 Population and climate change What is the relationship between population growth and human-made climate change? Must we necessarily limit the former to fix the latter? By Natalia Kanem

78 Turning the ship Not everyone sees climate action as a force for good, and resistance to the Paris Agreement comes in many guises. What can be done to convince those who fear the switch to a low-carbon economy? By Manuel Pulgar-Vidal

NEW CONTEXT

80 The path to a low-carbon economy How can the world’s economies, whose prosperity has been built on fossil fuels, transform themselves to avert catastrophic climate change? By Adair Turner

84 Local solutions 22 Is the current globalised economic model compatible with solving climate change? By Helena Norberg-Hodge

86 The world needs trillions How can the international community ensure that investors channel sufficient funds towards the most high- impact projects? By Barbara Buchner

90 Towards a green economy The goals of the Paris Agreement are inexorably interwoven with the SDGs, and both require a transition to inclusive green economies. By Achim Steiner

92 Shaking up business action on climate Meeting the climate challenge will require radical and rapid transformation to business practices. How are companies responding, and what can be done to speed progress? By Helen Clarkson

RESULTS

96 Knowing what to do Making better use of the vast amounts of data at our disposal will be critical to taking the evidence-based actions needed to tackle climate change. By Claire Melamed and Aditya Agrawal 80

CLIMATE 2020 6 CONTENTS

102 The impact on life on Earth How is climate change disrupting our planet’s ecosystems and human societies? By Hans-Otto Pörtner THANK YOU TO OUR SUPPORTERS 106 Will there be enough? Water is essential for human life – but it’s also critical for UNA-UK thanks the following organisations for their economic stability, global security, and climate change generous support for Climate 2020, without which mitigation and adaptation. By Sofia Widforss its publication would not be possible:

110 As the Sahel becomes Sahara ANEAS 109 What happens when habitable land is lost? What can be done to alleviate the consequences? Agenzia Spaziale Italiana 100 By Fred Carver Ansaldo STS 59 114 Feeding a growing population How can agriculture address this challenge while BNP Paribas Asset Management 17 simultaneously adapting to – and not exacerbating – climate change? By José Graziano da Silva Bord Bia, the Irish Food Board 115

118 Climate 2020: sustainability Consumer Goods Forum 41

119 About us Efacec 83 An introduction to UNA-UK Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 2, 36

Golden Agri-Resources 95

International Seed Federation 117

Jupiter Oxygen Corporation 46

The Lancet 7

Legal & General Investment Management 26

Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz 21 International Prize for Water

Save the Children 113

Sofidel 31, 108, 120

UK Export Finance 89

Voith 54

110

CLIMATE 2020 A new voice for a new discipline

The Lancet Planetary Health

The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold open access journal Read more about the scope and aims of the journal, in the Lancet family, dedicated to the health of the and stay informed by registering for email updates, human civilisation and the state of the natural systems notifications of newly published articles, and table of on which it depends. contents alerts, all of which are freely acessible online at www.thelancet.com/planetary-health. The journal is committed to publishing high- quality original research, editorials, comments, and Consider us for publication—to submit a manuscript, correspondence that contribute to defining and visit http://ees.elsevier.com/tlplanetaryhealth. We advancing planetary health worldwide. also welcome presubmission enquiries. To find out more please contact [email protected]. In keeping with our other journals, The Lancet Planetary Health offers rapid publication of research online within 8-12 weeks from submission.

TLPLANETARY_210x276_call_for_papers_ad_Aug17.indd 1 10/08/2017 14:21 8 FOREWORD © UNHCR/Helene Caux Mobilising the world

Climate change is undeniable. Climate action is unstoppable. And climate solutions provide opportunities that are unmatchable

By António Guterres, Last year was once again the hottest on to cities and other nations. We see this Secretary-General, United Nations record. The past decade has also been the already across North Africa and the hottest on record. Every geophysical system Middle East. That is why there is also a have three granddaughters – the eldest on which we depend is being affected, from compelling security case for climate action. is eight. I cannot imagine the world they mountains to oceans, from ice caps to forests, Around the world, military strategists view I will inhabit decades from now. But not and across all the arable lands that provide climate change as a threat to global peace knowing is no excuse for not acting to ensure our food. and security. that we do not undermine their future. The moral imperative for action is clear. We are all aware of the political turmoil I want my grandchildren to inherit a The people hit first and worst by climate and societal tensions that have been healthy world, free of conflict and suffering change are the poor, the vulnerable and the generated by the mass movement of refugees. – and a healthy planet, rooted in low-carbon marginalised. Women and girls will suffer as Imagine how many people are poised to sustainable solutions. That is my wish for they are always the most disproportionately become climate-displaced when their lands everyone, everywhere. To get there, we have affected by disasters. become unliveable. Last year, more than our work cut out for us. The nations that will face the most 24 million people in 118 countries and Countries and communities everywhere are profound consequences are the least territories were displaced by natural disasters. facing pressures that are being exacerbated responsible for climate change and the least That is three times as many as were displaced by megatrends like population growth, equipped to deal with it. Droughts and by conflict. urbanisation, food insecurity, water scarcity, floods mean poverty will worsen, famines Climate change is also a menace to jobs, massive movements of people – the list could will spread and people will die. As regions to property and to business. With wildfires, go on. But one overriding megatrend is at the become unliveable, more and more people floods and other extreme weather events top of that list: climate change. will be forced to move from degraded lands becoming more common, the economic costs

CLIMATE 2020 FOREWORD 9

António Guterres listens to a Nigerian refugee in The International Energy Agency has First, I will intensify high-level political Cameroon. The effects of climate change on the Sahel, indicated that investing in energy efficiency engagement to raise the bar on climate increasing competition for water and food, have led to displacement and conflict across the breadth of Africa could increase global economic output by action. Second, I will rally the full capacity of $18 trillion dollars – more than the outputs the UN development system behind climate of the US, Canada and Mexico combined. action, especially at the country-level because are soaring. The insurance industry raised the Future spending on energy infrastructure that is where true change will be achieved. alarm long ago. They have been joined by alone could total some $37 trillion dollars. Third, I will use the convening power of many others across the business community. Now if that is the case, it is crucial for the UN to work with all major actors to Climate action is gathering momentum such massive investments to be sustainable accelerate the necessary energy transition not just because it is a necessity but also and climate-friendly; otherwise, we will and promote the greening of investments because it presents an opportunity – to forge lock ourselves into bad practices for decades in infrastructure and transport, as well as a peaceful and sustainable future on a healthy to come. Given the facts about youth progress on carbon pricing, as more and planet. This is why governments adopted the unemployment, air pollution and climate more politicians, policy-makers and business Paris Agreement in 2015. Today, over 160 change, surely it is common sense to put our actors are calling for a carbon price as the states representing more than 80 per cent of investments where they will generate the green economy’s missing link. greenhouse gas emissions have ratified the most savings, create the most jobs, deliver the Fourth, I will work with countries Agreement. Every month, more countries biggest health dividends and have the most to mobilise national and international are translating their pledges into national impact against global warming. resources to support mitigation, adaptation, climate action plans. That is why thousands of private resilience and the implementation of their Not everyone will move at the same pace corporations, including major oil and gas national climate action plans. I will focus on or with equal vigour. But if any government companies, are taking their own action. It strengthening resilience of the small island doubts the global will and need for this accord that is reason for all others to unite even further and build ever-broader If any government doubts the global will coalitions. Indeed, all around the world, cities, regions, states and territories are and need for this accord that is reason for all others adopting their own ambitious targets and to unite even further and build ever-broader coalitions reporting mechanisms. Some may seek to portray the response to climate change as a fundamental threat to is why some of the world’s most successful states and encourage developed countries to the economy. Yet what we are witnessing in business leaders, entrepreneurs and venture fulfil the pledges they have made – including these early years of a systemic response is the capitalists plan to invest in a fund called for the Green Climate Fund. opposite: new industries, new markets and Breakthrough Energy Ventures, led by Bill And finally, I will encourage new and more jobs. Gates, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions strengthened partnerships for implementing The real danger is not the threat to with clean energy technology. It is why the the Paris Agreement through North-South, one’s economy that comes from acting. It market for securities designed to benefit the South-South and triangular cooperation. I is, instead, the risk to one’s economy by environment is on track to double again this also intend to convene a climate summit in failing to act. The message is simple: the year. And it is why 60 per cent of the world’s 2019 to make sure we reach the critical first sustainability train has left the station. Get 500 largest asset owners are taking steps to review of Paris implementation with the on board or get left behind. Those who fail recognise the financial risks associated with strong wind of a green economy at our backs. to bet on the green economy will be living climate change. Climate change is an unprecedented and in a grey future. Those who embrace green Science is speaking to us very clearly about growing threat. The arguments for action technologies will set the gold standard for what is happening. Innovation is showing are clear. So are the immense opportunities economic leadership in the 21st century. us very clearly what can be done. If we want for peace and prosperity if we act quickly In the US and China, new renewable to protect forests and life on land, safeguard and decisively. All of us – governments, energy jobs now outstrip those created in the our oceans, create massive economic businesses, consumers – will have to make oil and gas industries. Major oil producers are opportunities, prevent even more massive changes. This may not be easy at times. But also seeing the future and diversifying their losses and improve the health and well-being for the sake of today’s and future generations, economies – Saudi Arabia has announced of people and the planet, we have one simple it is the path we must pursue. plans to install 700 megawatts of solar and option staring us in the face: climate action. wind power. And industry experts predict As UN Secretary-General, I am A version of this article was delivered as a speech India’s solar capacity will double this year to committed to mobilising the world to meet at New York University’s Stern School of Business 18 gigawatts. this challenge. on 30 May 2017.

CLIMATE 2020 10 FOREWORD

Bringing everyone on board

The gateway to a low-emission, sustainable future must open wider

By Patricia Espinosa, cities, business, investors and citizens – action over time, and in time to meet the Executive Secretary, UN Framework will achieve the future we want. So it is temperature goal. Convention on Climate Change important to look concretely at why and The Agreement both invites governments how the Paris Agreement can work and how to communicate long-term, low-emission he pathways to a future free from it dovetails across the 2030 Agenda. development strategies and also asks each the worst impacts of climate country to submit national climate plans Tchange exist. A future where all can Global strategy (known as NDCs) which they will update rely on a sustainable life and livelihood The Paris Agreement is a global strategy every five years, or more often as desired, and where humanity’s treatment of our from now into the longer term, defined towards increasingly higher ambition. planetary home will not bring the roof by three key aims: limiting the average These are mutually reinforcing, down on our heads. Yet the gateway to global temperature rise to well below 2ºC because the long-term strategy provides a that future must now open wider so that above pre-industrial levels and to make framework and direction to the subsequent many more architects and builders of this efforts to limit it to 1.5ºC; fostering and national plans and, at the same time, the sustainable, low-emissions world – across supporting resilient and sustainable low- increasingly ambitious national plans deliver government, economy and society – can emissions development; and ensuring global the results to achieve the long-term strategy. advance together, further and faster, down investment flows support these goals. The global response has been stunning. an open road. These three aims provide a clear, long- As of late-August, the UN Climate Change So often, peace and security now seem term direction of travel to all these state secretariat had already received 154 national difficult to reach. Population growth, food and water scarcity and chaotic urbanisation seem insurmountable to the citizen on the We have unprecedented consensus on the path forward… street or in the field. We see growing threats and real impacts and unprecedented political will to move forward together from climate change in both the developed and developing worlds. Yet it is also a point in time when the and non-state sectors because they link climate plans from the 197 Parties to the nations of the world, most clearly through economic activity, emissions and the impacts agreement, with more expected all the time. the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda of climate change. Meanwhile, action on climate change for Sustainable Development, have agreed The temperature goal reflects a vision and action on sustainability also become that a sustainable, resilient and secure way of the type of future society we want, mutually supporting goals. of life is an essential and common goal. precisely because it does compel us to Climate change is Goal 13 of the This represents no less than a bold rethink the way we produce, use and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), statement of determination by the consume energy, how we manufacture but as we look across all of the goals, it is international community to transform the and build and how we manage our land quite evident that climate action contributes way we generate power and produce and and ecosystems. to the success of all 17 SDGs and vice-versa. consume food and goods, and to invest in To this end, policies need to be set Look at SDG 1 to end poverty, SDG clean energy, manufacturing and farming in place now, technologies need to be 8 related to decent work and economic which no longer pump out the greenhouse developed, matured, commercialised opportunity and SDG 3 to improve health gases that create global warming and the and deployed at scale, and practices and and well-being. For example, cheap, clean pollution which destroys environments and behaviours of economic actors need to renewable energy in so many places that public well-being. move ever faster towards low-emission and had no access or relied on expensive and It is a unique moment of optimism. sustainable business and investment. dirty fossil fuels immediately improves It is also a moment when only the full It is most important to underline, health, provides new jobs and creates participation, action and common therefore, that the Paris Agreement includes more self-sufficient local economies, understanding by all – governments, states, an effective engine to raise global climate boosting communities’ economic

CLIMATE 2020 © Andres Martinez Casares/Reuters education and gender equality – SDGs education andgender equality–SDGs 100 percentrenewableenergy. countries arenowcommittedto futuresof is takingoffinIndiaand48developing largest developer, butasolarrevolution developing world.Chinaremains thesingle to thesustainabledevelopmentplansof Network’s latestreport. in 2016over2015,accordingtotheREN21 records, mostrecentlyrisingninepercent power capacitycontinuestosetnew for all–SDG7.Newlyinstalledrenewable critical pathtoaffordableandcleanenergy climate action. seek furthersolutionsinotherformsof independence andempoweringthemto Likewise, without goals such as quality Likewise, withoutgoalssuchas quality In fact,renewablesarebecomingcentral Renewable energy, meanwhile,isthe climate-resilient agriculture. the transitiontosustainableenergy and powerful actorsinclimateaction, including system and,oncefullyempowered, are energy managersandkeyactors inthefood countries, womenareprimaryhousehold renewable energysector. per centoftheworkforceinmodern women accountfornomorethan25 Renewable EnergyAgencyreportsthat to fivetimesthatofmen.TheInternational disasters inpoorercountriesataratefour and childrensuffertheimpactsofclimate make Parisandthe2030Agendaasuccess. capacity ofhumaneffortandingenuityto 4 and5–wewouldnotdevelopthefull In addition, it is important to note In addition,itis importanttonote Yet, forexample,inmostdeveloping UN Women hasshownthatwomen we have. this journeytowardstheonlyrealistic future must inspireotherstounderstand andjoin open widerandwewhoareinspired bythis Paris Agreement.Butthegateway must country’s nationalcontributiontothe multilateral institutions,andin each for action–intheUnitedNationsand forward together. have unprecedentedpoliticalwilltomove consensus onthepathforward.Andwe emission energy. We haveunprecedented sustainable developmentpoweredbylow- agreement tomovetowardsresilientand objectives ofthesemultilateralagreements. following andsometimesevenleadingthe Sachs, theprivatesectorisvoluntarily companies suchasAppleandGoldman record greenbondsissuancebymajor for thepoorestandmostvulnerable,to electric vehicles,frominnovativeinsurance increasing stormsandsea-levelrise. situated oncoastlinesareathighriskfrom and 90percentoftheworld’s urbanareas over 70percentofglobalCO by theknowledgethatcitiesaccountfor to Oslo,mayorsareleadingtheway, driven and societiesfromclimateimpacts. cut emissionsandprotecttheireconomies building ahostofclimate-smartpoliciesto to ShenzhenSãoPaulo,governorsare Ogun statestoCalifornia,fromGujarat and mustacttogether. Andthisishappening. all government,civicandbusinesssectorscan becomes clearernotonlywhybutalsohow the climatechangegoalslaidoutinParis,it interconnected natureofalltheSDGsand With thisunderstandingofthe Working together future balance of emissions. future balanceofemissions. ecosystems areessentialtomaintainthe that thegoalsonhealthylandandwater success ofall17SDGsandvice versa change. Hence, climate actionwillcontribute to the most deprived are alsothemost threatened by climate

Repairing hurricanedamage inJérémie, Haiti.The We haveanagreedandrobustfoundation We have,therefore,unprecedented And fromrenewablestechnologyto From Chicago to Jakarta, from Durban From ChicagotoJakarta,fromDurban For example,fromNigeria’s Deltaand

FOREWORD 2 emissions emissions CLIMATE 2020

11 12 INTRODUCTION

New winners, new losers?

As we push for the huge transitions that climate change requires, we must ensure that arguments of solidarity and cooperation prevail over those of self-interest and competition

By Natalie Samarasinghe, Executive Director, of President Trump’s decision to withdraw and Fred Carver, Head of Policy, United from it, the Agreement continues to be Nations Association – UK central to the climate conversation. Indeed, it appears to have increased resolve. China t took eight years for the Kyoto Protocol and India were among the countries to to enter into force in 2005. The re-state their commitment to Paris in Iexclusion of major developing countries response. On the basis of the myriad from binding emissions targets, followed by actions announced by American states, the US refusal to ratify it and later Canada’s cities, businesses, investors, tech firms and withdrawal, led many to doubt the efficacy communities, the United States may even of international climate treaties. be on course to exceed the targets envisaged Fast forward a decade and the 2015 Paris by Mr Trump’s predecessor, a key actor in Agreement on climate change seems to be securing the Agreement. gaining momentum. In this publication Critics of Mr Trump’s decision have – last year, we made the case that while the rightly – pointed out that shying away from Agreement is far from perfect, lacking (for climate action will harm the US economy now at least) the ambition and robustness and damage the country’s reputation that we urgently need, it is nonetheless a and influence. Many have argued that crucial milestone, cementing the global by choosing to marginalise its role in consensus on climate change and committing the defining issue of our time, the US is – for the first time – all countries to action. hastening the end of the American century. The Agreement took less than a year to UNA-UK too commented at the time enter into force. At the time of writing, it that in diplomatic terms the US will be a had 197 parties: every UN member state smaller country, and China a larger one as a except Syria and Nicaragua, plus Palestine, consequence of the withdrawal. Niue and the Cook Islands, as well as the As many of our contributors note, climate Downwards as the power of civil society, European Union. 160 of them had ratified action is accentuating and accelerating the power of the private sector, and the it, representing well over 80 per cent of the the shift in global power relations as power of individuals grows, to the point world’s emissions. Over 150 have submitted the centre of gravity continues to move where government is no longer leading the national climate plans. There has also been eastwards, southwards and downwards. fight to prevent climate change, but playing movement on strengthening monitoring and Eastwards towards China, India and a slew catch-up to non-state actors who have more transparency, with the first global stocktake of middle-income states that are finding rapidly embraced the cultural and business due next year, alongside the adoption of a newer, greener ways to pursue development. opportunities presented by the transition to ‘rulebook’. Southwards towards Africa where countries a zero-carbon economy. such as Ethiopia, Ghana and Morocco Increased resolve are finding ways to leapfrog the carbon- Solidarity and cooperation Perhaps most encouragingly, despite or – as dependent West and move straight to a Cause then, for optimism, but also for some of our contributors argue – because post-carbon society. realism and caution. Realism because last

CLIMATE 2020 INTRODUCTION 13

Using a makeshift raft to get to safety in Kurigram District, Bangladesh. Exceptionally heavy monsoon rains in the country have caused extensive flooding, affecting an estimated 3.9 million people

well humanity will adapt to a two-degree warmer world. And caution because our response risks dividing the world into climate ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. Our prevailing global system has left too many behind – and it is they who are already disproportionately affected by climate change. Now we risk creating more categories of climate losers in our drive to increase ambition. By dialling up the self-interest argument for climate action – increased influence, economic gain and the competitive edge for countries, companies and communities – we may end up undermining what is most needed right now: solidarity and cooperation. This means recognising the continued importance of the US and EU – key emitters, historically and going forward, and key actors in terms of innovation and finance – while embracing the need for a new, more equitable global system that sees African, Asian and Latin American countries in leading roles. It means recognising the continued utility of state-based action and agreements, even as a plethora of other actors become the lead implementers. Perhaps most important – and challenging – will be recognising the need for solidarity in protecting the most vulnerable countries and people from the fall-out from climate change, especially more, and more intensive, conflicts,

© UNICEF/Saeed humanitarian disasters and refugee flows. Which parts of the world are habitable and prosperous will change dramatically Perhaps most important will be recognising the need over the next decades. Ensuring the safe and orderly movement of many millions while for solidarity in protecting the most vulnerable countries maintaining their dignity and harnessing and people from the fall-out from climate change the opportunities that their arrival will bring will require the adoption of more modern and fluid definitions of identity and year, data from NASA and several climate 2016, and will likely stay above it for, at nationality. It will also require investment institutions showed that the target of very least, the lifetimes of our readers. now – political and financial – in our limiting global temperature rise to 1.5ºC This puts us past the point of no return. international system. is probably no longer achievable. We It remains to be seen whether prompt If we don’t, we will all be losers. That is also stayed above the symbolic red line of action can limit the increase in global UNA-UK’s constant refrain to its partners

400ppm CO2 for the entire duration of averages to within two degrees, and how in the UK and beyond.

CLIMATE 2020 economy gains momentum The transition to aclean CLIMATE 2020 In afluidpolitical landscape, whoisbestplaced to lead climate changeactionontheground? 14 NEW LEADERS

By Emily Farnworth, Head of Climate and infrastructure development can Change, World Economic Forum ensure electricity is being generated from clean sources. limate change has been described as As renewables offer the cheapest source the biggest risk to humanity. So what of new power generation in many countries Care we doing about it? The answer is: around the world, this should happen quite a lot, but not enough. naturally. However, with the growth Even five years ago it would be of electricity demand in fast-growing Also in this section impossible to imagine headlines like ‘Exxon economies like China, India and many supports a global deal to address climate African countries, it is critical that the change’, ‘Investors call for low-carbon long-term impacts of power generation strategies to minimise financial exposure choices are considered, even when they China’s new to climate risk’ or ‘China steps up to lead may not be the cheapest, in the race to direction 18 the global fight against climate change’. meet demand. But these headlines are exactly what have been appearing over the last few months. Investment decisions Europe’s role 22 They are signs that key decision-makers One thing that might help considerably are starting to understand the impact in the choice of new power generation Investing for climate 24 climate change will have on the stability is investor concern about the long-term of the global economy and the health of viability of assets. our society. There is a growing awareness of the Model cities 28 Access to electricity has been a driving financial risks associated with using factor in unlocking economic growth for fossil fuels. The Financial Stability Business many countries. And it has been fuelled Board’s Task Force on Climate-related opportunities 32

Goodbye to oil 34 With the growth of electricity demand in fast-growing economies like China, India and many African countries, it Disruptive is critical that the long-term impacts of power generation technology 38 choices are considered in the race to meet demand

by oil and coal – a significant factor in Financial Disclosures recently released contributing to climate change. But now their recommendations – backed by renewable energy generation has come investors, insurance companies and major of age and is competing with fossil fuels corporations – that outline the need for in many parts of the world. As storage better understanding of climate risk when and smart-grid technologies develop, the making investment decisions. capability of renewables to compete – at It is likely to drive a preference for clean any time of day or night, no matter what energy and more resilient infrastructure the load – will not be far away. investment, particularly in relation to The future of transportation is also new infrastructure developments in transitioning towards electrification. emerging economies. Solutions for electric road, rail, marine This is also the message coming from and even aviation transport are being China as part of their ambitious plans for developed at pace. This is a positive trend the $900 billion infrastructure investment for climate change – provided that policy commitment behind their Belt and Road initiative. It is likely the future for curbing carbon emissions will be won or lost An innovative approach to renewable power: a large floating solar farm under construction on a lake formed through the decisions in infrastructure by a collapsed coal mine in Anhui province, China investment. Lack of clarity around the

CLIMATE 2020 16 NEW LEADERS

4°C+ < 4°C < 3°C < 2°C < 1.5°C < 1.5°C World World World World World World 1.5°C PARIS CRITICALLY HIGHLY INSUFFICIENT 2°C AGREEMENT ROLE INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT COMPATIBLE COMPATIBLE MODEL

CHILE ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA COSTA RICA MOROCCO 0 Countries RUSSIA CHINA BHUTAN ETHIOPIA 1 Country SAUDI ARABIA JAPAN BRAZIL INDIA TURKEY SINGAPORE CANADA PHILIPPINES Climate UKRAINE SOUTH AFRICA EU THE GAMBIA USA SOUTH KOREA INDONESIA 5 Countries Action 6 Countries 6 Countries KAZAKHSTAN Tracker MEXICO The CAT rates a total of 30 countries NEW ZEALAND (plus the EU) that together cover the vast majority of global emissions. The countries NORWAY Country ratings were also selected to represent a good mix PERU on NDC Commitments of countries from different world regions and on NDC* commitments various stages of economic development. SWITZERLAND September 2017 Update UAE September 2017 Update Source: Climate Action Tracker 13 Countries www.climateactiontracker.org *NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions

true cost of energy projects is still masked lighting are also providing access to initiatives are developing more healthy by misunderstanding of energy incentives energy for many rural communities that and sustainable places for people to live – whether they are for fossil fuels or have previously relied on kerosene. These and work. renewables. options are not only safer and cleaner. They A growing number of businesses are Additional complications of bringing are often cheaper, too. committed to reducing emissions across renewables into grids at large scale still need Price signals on carbon are similarly their operations and value chains. This to be addressed to fast track this solution. helping to drive investment decisions is creating a market for energy-efficient It will require a combination of digital for clean energy and improved energy technologies and renewable energy infrastructure for demand-side management efficiency. China will launch a national irrespective of local policies. of power requirements alongside policy carbon market at the end of the year, which The voice of all these non-state actors changes and the development of physical will help drive emission cuts in some of the is a welcome influence in the wake of infrastructure capacity to make it work. country’s most carbon-intensive sectors the US President’s decision to pull the But, perhaps just as importantly, it while sending a clear signal to the rest of country out of the Paris Agreement. will take changes in mindset. We need the world that China intends to continue its It sends a signal to all national governments to recognise that new ways of managing emissions-reduction push. that the momentum behind the low-carbon electricity demand, use and storage are The country’s new environmental transition is sufficient to continue to changing at an increased pace. Solutions regulations, set to come into force next year, address climate change, irrespective not feasible just a year ago are becoming will restrict a number of environmental of the decisions at the top of national economically and technically viable. pollutants, making clean energy options governments. Decentralised energy production more appealing than coal. This community will be keeping a close and use are offering new ways for watch and it is inevitable the shift will individuals, companies and communities Speed of transition continue from the climate action leaders to find local solutions that don’t rely on In addition, the Paris Agreement has that grow in numbers by the day. traditional options. They offer ‘bottom-up’ helped to stimulate a groundswell of other The question is not whether the world approaches to delivering access to energy actors driving change. Cities, states and will move to a low-carbon future. The for those that don’t have reliable grid regions are setting aggressive goals for question is how quickly the transition can connections. carbon cuts, allowing for more localised occur to ensure those most vulnerable Better micro-grid solutions and more solutions to deliver on pathways for can be protected from the worst effects of energy-efficient technologies like LED reducing emissions. At the same time, these climate change.

CLIMATE 2020 IN A CHANGING WORLD, YOU NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RIGHT PATH.

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P1708097_AD_Corpo_template_WATCH_276x210_EN.indd 1 30/08/2017 17:35:55 CLIMATE 2020 18 NEW LEADERS

Can China lead the way?

Infamous for its smog-filled cities and polluted groundwater, China is steadily acquiring a new reputation as a leader in green technology. What can China offer the world in the fight against climate change?

By Jiang Kejun, Director, and Gao Xiang, consumption and behavioural change. most low-carbon technologies. Associate Professor, Energy Research Whereas climate change action in China China has also suffered serious and Institute, National Development and Reform pre-2005 was driven by international widely publicised problems of poor air Commission, China negotiations, since then it has been domestic quality and related environmental damage. policy leading the way. To improve air quality, China’s government n the early 1990s, as countries started Over recent years, China has enjoyed launched a national action plan in 2012. to talk about international collaboration rapid economic growth. Back in 2005, GDP Most measures to fight air pollution are Ion climate change action, China’s voice stood at RMB 18.7 trillion ($2.8 trillion). consistent with a low-carbon economy, such was weak and negative. China saw climate By 2010 it had more than doubled to RMB as capping demand for coal or developing change as a political debate rather than a 40.3 trillion ($6.03 trillion), and in 2016 renewable energy. real global environmental problem. But stood at RMB 75 trillion ($11.2 trillion). In 2016, China was responsible for more with the involvement of experts from Today, it is low-carbon technology than 40 per cent of the newly installed China in international research activities, sectors that are driving the country’s capacity for renewable energy in the world. the discussion about climate change within economic development. China’s investment Analysis shows that China should be able the Chinese government has since made in and commitment to low-carbon to improve on its commitments under

significant strides. technologies has helped bring costs down, the Paris Agreement, by peaking on CO2 Following the announcement in 2007 by benefiting users and producers around emissions much earlier than 2030. By then president Hu Jintao that China would the world. In fact, according to the peaking on its coal consumption in 2014,

make low-carbon economic development Integrated Energy and Environment Policy China has contributed to limit global CO2 a national strategy, there has been a Assessment Model for China modeling emissions and help the world on its way significant shift in the country’s climate- team, China is now the world leader in towards meeting the 2°C target. change policymaking. China has been quick to establish clear policy signals promoting low-carbon development. New investments in renewables 2016 For the first time, China made a quantitative commitment to cut greenhouse Americas gas emissions, in the Copenhagen (excl. US & Brazil) 6.1 Agreement in 2009. A year later, China Brazil 6.8 launched a low-carbon city programme involving 13 pilot cities and provinces. Middle East & Africa 7.7 In 2011, it designed and launched a pilot India 9.7 emissions trading system (ETS) in seven Asia Oceania cities and provinces, the largest ETS in (excl. China & India) 26.8

the world. US 46.4 Many national policies were rewritten to factor in new targets on Europe 59.8

energy conservation, renewable energy China 78.3 development, urban planning, public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 US$ Billions Rizhao, China. Poor air quality, which is responsible Source: UN Environment, Bloomberg New Energy Finance for over 700,000 deaths in China annually, is one of the factors behind the strong public support for climate action

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Socio-economic development China now realises that it cannot achieve socio-economic development without Global CO2 emissions also protecting the environment. “Green hills and clean waters are gold and silver mountains” is becoming mainstream 31% Other 7.7 philosophy in China’s economic 30% China development. China is willing to put much more effort into improving environmental quality. Low-carbon technology is one of the key components of that effort. 9.9 3% Japan With the onset of the ‘new normal’ of more moderate economic expansion, investment growth in traditional sectors will 14% 16.1 necessarily slow or even reverse. China will, 5% United States 12.3 Russia of course, still need new investment. But that investment must be directed towards low-carbon technology-related sectors. 10% 7% 6.9 The public is increasingly concerned 1.9 India European Union about the environment, and wants to see improvements. It is believed that global environmental issues may soon become Source: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment CO2 per capita emissions in the main concern of the Chinese public, Agency/Trends in global CO2 emissions: 2016 report tonnes CO2 per capita per annum overtaking worries about corruption. For decades, people’s lives have been seriously impacted by worsening air quality, water other developing countries to follow. Over owes a lot to the strategy being linked pollution and other environmental the last two decades, China learned almost with social development issues: promoting problems. Studies show that more than everything on energy and climate change- local economies, eliminating poverty, 700,000 people in China die each year related policy from developed countries. providing better access to energy, protecting due to air pollution alone. Improving the Likewise, developing countries that share biodiversity, increasing social inclusion, environment could significantly boost similar circumstances could advise and share promoting gender equality, promoting the people’s quality of life. A healthy climate is knowledge with each other as they make the Sustainable Development Goals, and so on. also our golden mountain. transition to a low-carbon economy – though China’s good (and bad) practices in these hopefully this won’t take 20 years. areas would make good case studies for Leading by example China’s technological lead on low-carbon other countries to look at. As a developing country, China’s experience technologies could also well be utilised in China is also leading in areas such as in transitioning to a low-carbon economy renewable and nuclear energy development, will hopefully provide a blueprint for many electric cars, carbon capture and storage, other developing countries to emulate. China’s technological shared bikes, and urban design and China has made comprehensive low- planning. Here, there are opportunities carbon policies, taken measures in energy lead on low-carbon for China to work with developed conservation, and invested in renewable technologies could well be countries – particularly as there are strong energy development, electric car promotion, interdependencies between many of these green transport and environmental-friendly utilised in other countries countries and China. urban design and planning. China’s investment in research and China has rich experience in designing and other countries. With more low-carbon development is increasing rapidly and is using subsidies, energy and environmental technologies now being manufactured, now second in the world. Historically, standards, emission charges and the ETS, not only does the cost of the technology China’s researchers benefited greatly as well as in generating public engagement. decrease – so too does the cost of the by joining research programmes in other Its development of climate change-related knowhow of utilising the technology in countries. In the future, China could fund policymaking over the last two decades, local conditions. researchers from other countries – especially and its involvement in international The country’s momentum in developing nations – to take part in its own collaboration, offers a clear template for transitioning to a low-carbon economy climate change-related research.

CLIMATE 2020 PSIPW 8th Ad 210x276mm_Final.indd 1 3/28/2017 9:08:38 AM 22 NEW LEADERS

EU – still a force for progress?

In a time of diplomatic dysfunction, can Europe advance climate action by example and collaboration?

By Manuela Mattheß, Junior Expert including, for example, with respect to supporting the union’s significant economic International Energy and Climate Policy, the protection of the ozone layer and potential. According to a statistic by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) biodiversity. The EU’s contribution to Green Climate Fund in July 2017, most the Paris Agreement – the Nationally of the member states of the EU have put he Paris Agreement can without Determined Contributions (NDCs) of its forward pledges to provide climate finance a doubt be considered a historic member states – was submitted very early in to assist the countries most vulnerable to the Tbreakthrough in international climate the process and can be considered ambitious disastrous effects of climate change. policy. For the first time, all member states of in comparison to other major players. Even though the EU has been increasingly the United Nations Framework Convention It includes a greenhouse gas (GHG) challenged by centrifugal forces and the on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed emission reduction of at least 40 per cent by seemingly diverging interests of its member on joint efforts to tackle dangerous climate 2030 in comparison to the level from 1990. states, some of its leading economies (such change, including limiting global warming This is in conjunction with its 2030 climate as Germany and France) are willing to invest to well below 2ºC (or even 1.5ºC). This and energy framework, which incorporates money and capacities to raise ambition will require – among other things - carbon increasing the share of renewable energy with respect to climate action worldwide, neutrality as fast as possible. as well as increasing energy efficiency. underlining the fact that tackling climate After the historic success of Paris it However, the EU received a ‘medium’ change remains an important topic within became clear, however, that implementing rating on its NDC from the NGO the union. the Paris Agreement would not be an easy Climate Action Tracker, meaning that its Historically speaking, the European Union task, as challenges such as raising ambition outlined efforts are not consistent with the has been a driving force within the UN in national climate protection plans or temperature goal anchored in the Paris Framework Convention on Climate Change addressing transparency and accountability Agreement. (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, using remain. In addition, there have been Even though the EU has already ‘soft leadership’ and ‘leadership by example’ severe changes within the global political decreased its emissions by 24 per cent as its strategy. Although some involvements framework that might pose a threat to a since 1990, more action is needed, have not succeeded, the EU can still be successful implementation process. The particularly in terms of fulfilling its considered a master at coalition building. withdrawal of the US from the Paris long-term 2050 emissions reduction goal In 2011 it supported the launch of the Agreement, as announced on 1 June, will of 80-95 per cent reduction. One of the Durban Platform, which – among other likely create a vacuum that needs to be filled, important things to do is to reform the things – helped pave the way towards Paris. in terms of ambition and finances but also in Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which The EU was very keen on bridging the gaps terms of leadership. can be seen as an essential instrument between different interests, functioning as Although, as an immediate response, many of EU climate policy but has been an ‘honest broker’ that supported successful state and non-state actors publicly committed lacking efficiency in the past. Looking at alliance building and convergence. to implementing the Paris Agreement, it is mitigation efforts, it becomes very clear The Paris Climate Summit – which the generally viewed that there remains a need that the EU needs to close the existing EU helped to prepare in terms of content for global leadership to advance ambitious gap in credibility between what it has been as well as with diplomatic efforts – was a international climate policy efforts. If the advocating (a sustainable and low-carbon big success for the EU. The EU strongly European Union can manage to bridge the future) and what it can currently reach. supported important aspects, such as the gap between international promises and inclusion of mitigation commitments by domestic reality, and if it is able to establish A leadership role all countries and a review mechanism that strong and broad alliances with other climate In terms of resources and capacities would allow increases in ambition. champions, the prospect for its leadership are the EU has the potential to play a The High Ambition Coalition, headed very high. leadership role. According to the World by the Marshall Islands and the EU – and The EU has increasingly established Economic Forum, its current member including the US, developing countries itself as an international leader in global states Germany, the UK and France are and small island states – can be considered environmental governance in general, among the world’s biggest economies, one of the EU’s diplomatic masterpieces

CLIMATE 2020 NEW LEADERS 23 © Friedemann Vogel/Pool/Getty Images Vogel/Pool/Getty © Friedemann

in international climate negotiations – ambitious climate action. It is therefore very German Chancellor Angela Merkel welcoming French building bridges and coalitions between important for the EU to find solutions to the President Emmanuel Macron at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany. Germany and France have made diverging interests. This alliance proved diverging interests of its member states in it a priority to assist climate action worldwide very important in creating pressure to energy and climate policy. Establishing better close an ambitious deal. The EU has mechanisms to support policy coherence also been taking an ambitious stand in and paying attention to the burden-sharing Forming alliances will also be important G7 negotiations, raising the importance principle could be important steps to take in in strengthening multilateralism in a world of fighting climate change and trying to order to bring those on board that tend to that shows strong tendencies towards intensify discussions on the necessity of block climate ambition. dangerous isolationism instead of increased low-carbon development pathways. Despite The European Union and all stakeholders cooperation. In this sense the world could setbacks, it has utilised its diplomatic in the international climate power game will use not one climate leader, but numerous knowhow to advance international climate be confronted with unpredictable political ones that work together. policy. Strong and resilient alliance building and economic dynamics (both internally and The EU has a strong talent for smart will be indispensable in the coming years of externally). The EU definitely has the means, coalition building that should be used implementing the Paris Agreement goals, the capacities and the diplomatic knowhow to establish bilateral and multilateral and it is hard to imagine building diplomatic to be a leader in climate politics, but it has to arrangements with other climate ambitious bridges of interests without the EU at raise ambition in its own climate goals. Only countries such as China. Even though the the frontline. this way will it be able to continue working EU-China summit in June did not end with a with a ‘leadership by example’ strategy that joint agreement, it was an important first step Challenges ahead has been successful in the past. in the right direction. The EU should also There are a number of challenges, however, Additionally, the EU should focus on continue to expand climate cooperation with that continue to threaten the EU’s position being an initiator of and a mediator in developing countries, which would raise its as a climate champion. Apart from the ambitious, broad and strong climate alliances reputation and maintain its role as an honest financial crisis, the Brexit negotiations and that engage themselves in implementing the broker. It also needs to increase its mitigation the massive task of refugee integration Paris Agreement as well as the Sustainable goals, more so as it can afford to move that will tie up resources, capacities and Development Goals. Non-state actors such beyond its 2030 targets in terms of capacities attention, the biggest challenge might be to as civil society organisations, trade unions, and finances. This would be an important ensure EU unity in the face of centrifugal cities and communities should be as much sign demonstrating to the world that and polarising forces. Those tendencies part of those coalitions of climate champions the European Union is indeed a global make it much harder to find majorities for as states and businesses. climate champion.

CLIMATE 2020 24 NEW LEADERS © Reuters Investing in climate

The financial community is often criticised for seeking quick returns. How do we encourage private finance for climate action when the pay-off may be years – even decades – away?

By Fiona Reynolds, Managing Director, and water crises – feature among the most Climate change is just one of the many Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) likely and most serious risks. environmental, social and governance At the PRI, our signatories have (ESG) issues that the PRI addresses. In ccording to the World Economic indicated that climate is their most just over the 10 years that the PRI has been Forum Global Risks Report 2017, pressing concern in terms of posing in existence, we have seen consideration Aclimate change is set to rank material risks to their investment. Climate of ESG factors steadily move up the alongside income inequality and societal change is a cornerstone of our recently investor and corporate agenda as a way to polarisation as a top trend for 2017. This launched blueprint for responsible realise better returns over the long term. year’s report also noted that for the first investment for the next 10 years. We This mindset started to take shape post- time, all five environmental risks – which plan to work with our investor base to financial crisis, when many investors began include extreme weather events, failure of ensure they keep engaging companies on to question existing investment practices. climate change mitigation and adaptation, this issue. The failure of traditional business

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Statoil’s gas processing and CO2 removal at the top of the investment chain. Many infrastructure projects are both sustainable platform, Sleipner T, near Stavanger, Norway. pension funds, for example, have for some and climate resilient. Both the G20 and Norway’s Oil Fund, the national pension fund financed from surplus petroleum income, is a strong time been looking at ESG across their own the Organisation for Economic proponent of divestment from fossil-fuel assets investments. As the Canadian Pension Co-operation and Development are Plan stated in its 2014 annual report: “We exploring how to direct more institutional analysis to take into account a company’s consider responsible investing simply as investment into infrastructure, which can governance, compliance, basic corporate intelligent long-term investing”. present an attractive opportunity for long- culture and leadership has produced a As the world moves inexorably towards term capital. catalogue of poor business decisions. One a 2°C rise in global temperature, investors Emerging markets in particular will has only to look at the recent example of are understandably concerned about the require substantial investment in new green Volkswagen to remind us that financial risk of stranded assets at companies that infrastructure to mitigate and adapt to information in isolation might look derive the bulk of their income from energy climate change and support development appealing but it could be masking a host production that utilises fossil fuels. Many objectives. of unsavoury activities such as toxic waste companies faced with this risk are moving dumping, use of child labour or overly radically to alter their business models. The new normal aggressive tax practices. Perhaps one of the starkest indications The PRI recently developed a new We’ve also seen a confluence of factors, of the growth of ESG thinking among infrastructure workstream, which will including high-profile policy-makers who the global investment community is the focus mainly on private debt and equity are willing to publicly address the stark ongoing divestment from fossil-fuel assets. investments in infrastructure, both realities around issues such as climate Major asset managers such as Norway’s Oil directly and via funds. It will also ensure change and the risks this presents for Fund and France’s AXA have engaged over consideration of material ESG factors in investors. For example, Mark Carney, the past few years in divestment from fossil- investment decision-making, and provide Governor of the Bank of England, has fuel assets. guidance on integrating responsible referred to the “catastrophic risks” around Many other industry players are looking investment throughout the investment climate change. to follow suit. At the PRI, many of our process, from origination to exit.

Research underway Though data showing the correlation Perhaps one of the starkest indications of the growth between ESG factors and returns has in the past been thin on the ground, research on of ESG thinking among the global investment community this topic is finally catching up. Numerous is the ongoing divestment from fossil-fuel assets studies from the University of Hamburg/ Deutsche Asset Management, Oxford University/Arabesque Asset Management, signatories choose engagement over The commercial reality is that investors Harvard, MSCI and others have highlighted divestment because they feel that you can’t adapting to the ‘new normal’ of a low/ how looking at ESG factors can improve influence behaviour unless you have a ‘seat no return environment are seeking returns over the long term. at the table’. However, for some, when opportunities for higher yields. Long-term According to research firm Cambridge engagement efforts fail, divestment may be investors with lots of patient capital need a Associates, over the past three years the the only option. home for those funds – infrastructure and MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Index has Governments and regulators are also long-term sustainable investing are like a outperformed its parent index (the MSCI taking heed of how ESG issues can build marriage made in heaven. Emerging Markets Index) by 12 per cent long-term value. Green finance initiatives While the US’s decision to pull out of on a total US dollar-based return. The – taking root from London to Beijing – are the Paris Agreement was disappointing, company’s analysts report that over half of proving attractive as a way to take advantage activity around climate is unlikely to be this outperformance was based solely on of the falling costs of renewable energy and derailed. If anything, we have found that ESG factors. to reinvigorate economies through greater the US decision has actually galvanised These factors comprise a wide variety job creation. investors and other stakeholders to ramp of inputs, including carbon emissions, With over 150 countries now committed up their climate policies. The slow but employee health and safety, and product to the Paris Agreement, and pledging to steady turning of the global capital markets sourcing. dramatically reduce their carbon footprint towards ESG is proof of how the mindset Investors have a significant role when it – mostly through the development of of the financial community is turning away comes to engaging with companies on ESG low-carbon energy and transportation from the pure profit motive to a more issues, particularly asset owners who are infrastructure – it is vital that future holistic and nuanced investment model.

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LEGAL & GENERAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

Investing for the world you want to live in

As a leading global investor, we have a responsibility to manage, safeguard

By Meryam Omi, and help grow the value of our clients’ assets Head of Sustainability and Responsible Investing Strategy, Legal & General Investment ne way to do this is to ensure that the Climate change – a hot topic Management companies in which we invest are prepared A key focus area over the past year has been climate for the future. Our independent Corporate change. Investors are increasingly concerned about their Governance team uses Legal & General investments being negatively impacted by changes in OInvestment Management’s (LGIM’s) scale and influence regulation, technology and consumer demand, as well as to encourage companies to develop resilient strategies, increasingly adverse weather patterns. think longer term and consider all stakeholders. We The Paris Agreement was adopted in December work towards improving wider market standards, 2015, where we saw 195 countries all pledging their policies and regulations because we believe that good commitment toward the shared goal of keeping the governance protects and enhances long-term prospects global average temperature rise well below 2°C from for our clients. We take our responsibility to act as pre-industrial levels. good stewards and influence change seriously, devoting Investors are also increasingly realising the need to significant resources to this effort. address the long-term financial risks and opportunities 27

LEGAL & GENERAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

How it works: What is financed today We believe that the combined approach of ranking, engaging, voting and divesting where possible can send a powerful message that investors are serious about drives the world we tackling climate change. With over $1 trillion of assets under management on behalf build for the future of our clients, our collective voice can carry a lot of weight.

associated with climate change and the shift away from Assessment criteria Statement re: climate and energy impact Direct traditional energy models. LGIM analysis engagement Failure to of c.90 Transparency All companies, whether they emit carbon or not, with change companies Board/governance structure companies need financing. They require banks, pension funds and Strategy of resilience and innovation insurance companies to buy their shares and debt. How Reputation they invest and allocate capital holds the key to a world in Public policy which temperatures only rise by 2°C rather than 3 to 4°C.

What is financed today drives the world we build for the Successful High scores future. That’s where we come in. engagement LGIM tries to ensure that companies are addressing the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our mainstream index funds are required to hold all the companies in a benchmark index, and this scale gives us influence. We The time to act is now – a clear message to companies have for many years focused on using engagement, both Over time, the intention is to improve the standards with these companies as well as policymakers, to drive and practices in these companies to make them more change and hold companies to account on the issue. Last resilient to policy changes, more successful in providing year, for our clients that wanted to express a stronger low-carbon solutions and, ultimately, more prosperous stance, we evolved our approach to incorporate the twin as companies. In the long term, our clients who hold powers of engagement and divestment. stakes in these companies should benefit from their financial success. Introducing the Future World Fund We hope to dispel the misconception that ESG- In 2016, together with a major UK pension scheme, focused strategies must compromise returns in order to we launched the Future World Fund in order to help achieve their broader goals. As investors continue to re- investors address the long-term financial risk of climate evaluate the suitability of their investments in the context change, turning our existing approach into a real-world of their broader values and beliefs, LGIM is determined to solution for our clients. play a key role in helping our clients invest for the future The fund is an index-based strategy which they want to live in. incorporates a climate ‘tilt’, giving investors greater exposure to companies that generate green revenues The value of any investment and any income taken from it is not and that are more likely to benefit from the transition guaranteed and can go down as well as up, and investors may get back to a low-carbon economy. The tilt reduces exposure less than the amount originally invested. to companies with worse than average carbon emissions Legal & General Investment Management Ltd, One Coleman Street, and fossil fuel assets, whilst maintaining broad sector London, EC2R 5AA www.lgim.com exposures. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Evolving our approach – the Climate Impact Pledge The Future World Fund takes our approach to climate change one step further by incorporating LGIM’s Climate Impact Pledge. For the first time, we have gone beyond solely engaging with companies and we now have a vehicle to hold them to account on climate issues. After one year of engagement, some of the companies that fail to meet our minimum standards will be removed from the portfolio. In funds where we are unable to contractually divest, we will vote against the Chair of the board of the same companies. This approach means that our Pledge has a direct link to all of the assets UNA-UK thanks Legal & General Investment Management that LGIM manages globally. for its generous support for Climate 2020 CLIMATE 2020 28 © Rico Wasikowski/Getty Images NEW LEADERS NEW LEADERS 29

Model cities

Our planet demands fast action on climate change, yet the pace of national policymaking and implementation can be frustratingly slow. Can cities and their mayors show the way?

By Mark Watts, Executive Director, C40 together to take forceful action and to Cities Climate Leadership Group ensure that the US remains a global leader in reducing emissions”. n 1 June 2017, President Many of the same leaders are now Donald Trump ended months of working on the creation of the ‘America’s Ospeculation and confirmed that Pledge’. This is an unprecedented effort his administration would seek to withdraw to aggregate carbon reductions by cities, the United States from the Paris Agreement regions, businesses and other social actors on Climate Change. The response to ensure that the US achieves its Paris from political leaders within America Agreement commitment. and around the globe has been remarkably Beyond the US, Anne Hidalgo, mayor of swift and united in condemning the Paris and chair of the C40 network of cities decision. Ban Ki-moon, the former UN that are committed to action on climate Secretary-General, captured the mood change, has said: “The next four years will of defiance, by saying that the Paris be crucial in determining if the worst effects Agreement “once unthinkable, is now of climate change can be avoided… The unstoppable”. great cities of the world, in particular the Among the fiercest critics of Donald 12 American C40 cities, remain resolutely Trump’s decision have been the mayors committed to doing what needs to be done of American cities and the great cities to implement the Paris Agreement.” of the world. C40’s board president and 108th mayor of New York City, Michael Binding commitments Bloomberg, who also serves as the UN In the hours following President Trump’s Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for announcement, more than 50 cities – from Cities and Climate Change, generously Paris to Montreal, from Auckland to Seoul – pledged to give $15 million to the UN lit their city halls or their iconic monuments climate change secretariat to compensate for in green, as a sign of their commitment to the gap in funding that will result from the the Paris Agreement. US withdrawal. This response is not surprising. C40 has At the time of writing, more than 360 been working with city leaders and mayors American mayors have committed to adopt, for more than a decade and has seen their honour and uphold Paris Agreement goals. determination to act on climate change for Together, these cities joined hundreds the benefit of their citizens. of US states, universities and businesses to Recent events mean that many of declare ‘We Are Still In’ and committed to America’s largest cities are now far more “pursue ambitious climate goals, working ambitious on climate action than the federal government. It is no longer clear whether the US will pursue national targets for Potsdamer Platz, Berlin. Berlin, a C40 city, has reducing emissions or renewable energy. In committed to reducing its carbon emissions by 40 per cent in 2020, by 60 per cent in 2030 and contrast, many cities have made bold and by 85 per cent in 2050 from 1990 levels binding commitments. Within hours of

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President Trump’s announcement, Portland is linked to millions of premature deaths cities need to share knowledge on what and Pittsburgh committed to using 100 per each year in cities worldwide. policies, projects and approaches work best, cent renewable energy by 2050. Boston, These same emissions are major so other cities can learn from them and act Los Angeles, New York City, Washington contributors to climate change. Therefore, without delay. DC, Chicago and many other cities have set cities that act to increase public transport To give just one example, in 2007 Paris targets of reducing their emissions by 80 per usage, disincentivise or even ban cars from launched Vélib’ – the world’s first large- cent by 2050, consistent with the ambition parts of the city, and adopt electric vehicle scale bike-sharing scheme in a major city. A set out at Paris. technologies will improve the health of decade later, 43 C40 cities have bike-sharing This is not a new phenomenon, nor is their citizens while also curbing emissions. schemes. That represents hundreds of it limited to US cities. Copenhagen aims New Climate Economy research has shown millions of bike journeys in cities each year, to be carbon neutral by 2025, a far more that creating compact and connected cities, not generating any GHG emissions. ambitious goal than that of Denmark as a built around mass public transport, would It is not just other mayors who are whole. Stockholm has plans to become fossil save more than $3 trillion in infrastructure looking to cities for inspiration. Projects fuel free and cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) investments over the next 15 years. that have proved effective in major cities emissions by 100 per cent by 2040, five The cities that are able to deliver a are already being adopted at the national years ahead of Sweden’s national target. sustainable, low-carbon future the quickest level. In China, the central government has directed several of its cities to become pioneers in climate action. The vast fleets While national leaders have spent decades arguing of electric buses rolling out in Wuhan, Nanjing and Shenzhen are testament to and wrangling over the treaties and compromises the enthusiasm with which mayors have needed for a global agreement on climate change, embraced it. Now the impacts of this approach mayors have been getting on with the job are being seen. In June 2013, Shenzhen launched a carbon trading market, the first City leadership can be particularly will also be the world’s healthiest, wealthiest, of its kind in China. By 2016 the city had important in nations where the national most equal and most liveable. That is clearly established a national centre of excellence to government is less committed to climate what every mayor of the world’s megacities inform other cities and regions about setting action. Australia is the world’s largest wants to achieve for their citizens. up their own markets. Shenzhen’s officials exporter of coal, and coal power plants While national leaders have spent decades are now advising on the establishment of generate more than 80 per cent of electricity arguing and wrangling over the treaties China’s national carbon trading market, in the state of New South Wales. Yet, since and compromises needed for a global expected to launch later this year. 2004, when Clover Moore was first elected agreement on climate change, mayors have as lord mayor of the city, Sydney’s emissions been getting on with the job. The urban Leading the way have fallen by 17 per cent while the city’s philosopher, activist and visionary Benjamin There can be no doubt that nation states economy has grown by 37 per cent. Barber – who sadly died this year – was fond are crucial in delivering the reforms and of quoting former New York mayor Fiorello action required to tackle climate change. Accelerating the agenda La Guardia: “There is no Democratic or Mayors cannot do it alone, but they are best So why have mayors made action on climate Republican way of fixing a sewer.” placed to lead the way. C40 research found change such a priority? Primarily, it is In mayors, Barber identified “a non- that mayors can deliver or influence just because every day they can see the impact partisan and pragmatic style of governance over half of the emissions savings needed to that climate change is already having on that is lacking in national and international ensure their cities meet their obligations to their cities and citizens. From hurricanes in halls of power. Through these qualities of the Paris Agreement. New Orleans and New York, floods in Paris, leadership mayors have retained the trust Given the track record of cities in Houston and Montreal, deadly heatwaves of citizens in their office, helped cities leading this agenda, we at C40 believe in Sydney, to toxic air pollution in Beijing, become beacons of good governance, and that more power should be devolved to New Delhi and in all large cities, climate spearheaded city-to-city collaborations in city leaders, whether through increased change is already causing major disruptions order to better address shared problems.” access to finance, increased revenue-raising that mayors are compelled to deal with. Those decades of action and progress powers or authority over new areas such as Yet, just as importantly, mayors recognise on tackling climate change are now energy generation. the benefits that action on climate change proving invaluable for cities as they look to This could just prove the fastest way for will bring to their citizens. Air pollution accelerate their sustainability agenda. The national leaders to help save the planet. Let from diesel and petrol cars, lorries and buses urgency of the climate crisis we face means mayors lead the way.

CLIMATE 2020 31

SOFIDEL Sofidel innovates to lower carbon footprint in tissue production

In 2008, the Italian tissue company became the first in its industry to join the WWF’s Climate Savers Programme. Since then Sofidel has been able to cut direct carbon emissions by 19.1% per ton of paper produced

ess is more” can have multiple meanings: sobriety, responsible consumption, waste minimisation, but also higher operational “Lefficiency. This is the philosophy that has led Sofidel’s strategy in the last decade, a strategy deeply rooted in environmental and social sustainability, aiming at “building an inclusive, sustainable and resilient future for people and planet”, in accordance with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Sofidel is an Italian tissue company with operations in 13 countries in Europe and the US, with a turnover of €1,842 million (2016). To better achieve its sustainability goals, Sofidel was in 2008 the first tissue company to partner with WWF in the Climate Savers Programme, committing by 2020 to achieve ambitious objectives such as: n reducing by 23% carbon direct emissions company-wide environmental footprint, with and responsible water management. per ton of paper produced compared to 2009 six-digit investments in the group plants in In the former, Sofidel has achieved in 2016 values; Italy (Soffass Val Fegana, Soffass Monfalcone, the 100% of use of cellulose coming from n cutting by 13% indirect CO2 emissions Soffass Tassignano, Soffass Valdottavo), Spain independent third-party certified schemes caused by third parties in Sofidel’s supply (Sofidel Spain, Bunuel) and France (Sofidel (FSC®, FSC Controlled Wood, SFI®, PEFC™). chain, compared to 2010 values per ton of France, Roanne). In the latter, the company’s water usage paper produced; Moreover, the company has pioneered an performance is far better than the industry n achieving 8% of annual fuel consumption innovative technology that allows the recovery benchmark (7.0 l/kg compared to 15-25 l/ covered by renewable sources, in a of energy through hydraulic turbines using water kg), with investments for the use of waste and challenging scenario of an energy-intensive flows inside the tissue production system. This rainwater in production as well as biological industry such as tissue production. has been implemented in Poland’s Ciechanow depuration systems. plant as well as in Italy (Soffass via Giuseppe At the end of 2016, Sofidel was in line Lazzareschi, Porcari). (Source: Sofidel 2016 Integrated Report) to reach the announced goals, with a carbon intensity reduction of 19.1%, due to increasing Recent progress investments in energy efficiency, cogeneration Renewable energy has been another area of and renewable energy use. commitment in the last few years, mostly in The in-depth data show that in the last biomass, PV and hydro power plants, allowing

three years the carbon intensity (kg CO2/t an overall annual production of 263 TJ. paper) has decreased by 4.06%, despite a Besides its efforts to reduce GHG emissions growing production capacity. through the partnership with WWF, Sofidel’s In 2016, cogeneration and energy efficiency commitment to environmental sustainability is UNA-UK thanks Sofidel for its have been the key to obtaining a lower wider and embraces commodities’ procurement generous support for Climate 2020 32 NEW LEADERS © Ricardo Moraes/Reuters © Ricardo Making icebergs our business

On 12 July, the Larsen C ice shelf broke away from Antarctica, creating an iceberg the size of Brunei. This poses the question: if a one-trillion-ton chunk of ice crashes into the sea, does anyone hear it?

By Lise Kingo, CEO & Executive Director, strive together to steer the planetary ship the process. The UN Global Compact United Nations Global Compact past this virtual precipice, it will be difficult is doing its part to facilitate such action or impossible to achieve the Sustainable by providing business leaders with peer any in the global business Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 or a networks, action platforms, guidelines community hear it – and they net-zero emissions world by 2050. and key performance indicators for Mare working feverishly to develop The deadline is indeed vitally necessary, measuring impact – a true and complete climate solutions. These companies, large desirable and achievable. To that end, toolset. These capabilities are especially and small, understand that climate change UN Global Compact members commit important given the urgent timeframe represents unprecedented risk, and time is to deliver this outcome and keep the required. Our toolset, with its focus on of the essence. promises of the Paris Agreement through responsible policy engagement, make it the The recent 2020: The Climate Turning a heightened level of collective action partner of choice. Point report from Mission 2020 makes a between non-state players and government. Since corporate efforts are not always forceful and science-based case that global It is inspiring to see the business aligned with the plans and targets of those emissions must peak by 2020. This effort community stepping up to the climate companies’ own national governments, demands more than any one group of challenge – identifying risk, driving however, their efforts and innovations are stakeholders can deliver. Unless all players innovation, creating solutions and less scalable. Purposeful collective action – business, government and non-profits – improving both top and bottom lines in will yield exponentially greater impact.

CLIMATE 2020 NEW LEADERS 33

A railway destroyed by floods in Rio Largo city, The cost of solar has plummeted, making can we ensure the productive discussions, Brazil. There are investment opportunities in sustainable it more affordable than coal. Wind power, aligned planning and prioritisation, and transportation in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, worth up to US$2.6 trillion especially in Europe, has transformed the shared data needed? Building on a decade’s energy landscape. CEOs of many of the work with the Caring for Climate initiative, world’s largest corporations, several of them the UN Global Compact is uniquely Partnering benefits business, society and the oil and gas monoliths, personally petitioned positioned to help scale the progress already environment. It can even work to slow the the US White House to stay in the Paris made by businesses on global climate melting of ice. Agreement. Why? Because they believe it is action. Now, it can translate it into national good for business. action through its Global Compact Local What opportunities does climate Networks and UN partners. change present? How best to prepare? The UN Global Compact announced its To define the potential of collective As companies work to realise the new Pathways to Low-Carbon and Resilient action, one need only look at why opportunities that make the most sense for Development platform in Marrakech in companies are making public commitments their business, they are striking out in new November 2016. The platform, which went to climate action in ever-increasing directions to protect against risk, tap new live in early 2017, is designed to mobilise numbers. Simply put, more and more markets and enhance their brands. As they the private sector to become a catalyst for businesses want to mitigate the risks and forge ahead, aligning with government enhancing country-level action to meet seize the opportunities presented by a very targets and plans is not always at the top of the ambitions of the Paris Agreement different future. their priority list. Consequently, they make and the SDGs. It provides a collaborative Setting science-based targets is a less headway. It is also increasingly clear space for companies and key stakeholders particularly effective way for companies that a nation’s ability to achieve the targets to share, learn and identify effective ways to define opportunities aligned with their committed in Paris and see emissions to contribute to intended nationally strategic priorities and with reality – and capped by 2020 depends in substantial part determined contribution and SDG which are tangible and measureable. on making sure its businesses succeed, and implementation. Science-based targets to reduce greenhouse as rapidly as possible. gas (GHG) emissions, for example, or Businesses that operate in a favourable Together, companies and governments to limit global warming to less than regulatory environment flourish. can make it happen 2°C, can be set using economic and/or Responsible policy engagement should Even with the Paris Agreement pledges, physical activity measures that allocate be a priority for any company, large or ancient icebergs are calving and the world GHG emission-reduction efforts among small. Companies play an important role is heading for a temperature rise of 2.9- companies. in providing proactive, constructive input 3.4°C this century. Our planet recorded It is well documented that factoring to help governments create effective yet another ‘warmest global temperature’ climate change into business practices climate policies. Making a commitment to in 2016, at 1.1°C above the pre-industrial allows companies to reduce costs, develop sustainability is an important first step, but period. Faced with this reality, the need innovative products and services, recruit it is critical to connect the dots between this to help business and government work and retain the best people, and build brand commitment and corporate policy positions. together to achieve these urgent goals equity and competitive advantage. These Legislation and regulation are key has never been clearer or more critical. are powerful objectives, and opportunities ingredients in the climate effort. Emerging Communicating, planning, implementing abound. According to the World Bank, businesses need support to scale at pace. and reporting on climate actions in a shared climate investment opportunities will total The explosive development and growth of environment will have substantially more $23 trillion in emerging markets by 2030. the solar and electric vehicle industries are impact than isolated efforts – however Examples include: prime examples of the power of national successful those might be. Setting an ●● green buildings, where China, Indonesia, and subnational customer incentives. This effective price on carbon, such as the $100 the Philippines and Vietnam show a has been vividly demonstrated in Germany, per metric ton recommended by the UN climate-smart investment potential of China, India, the United States and, Global Compact in 2016, is the most direct

$16 trillion; increasingly, all over the world. Across a and effective way to reduce CO2 emissions. ●● sustainable transportation, where wide range of sectors, many companies – Together, let’s help companies and the potential for investment in Argentina, such as Siemens, Natura Cosmetics, Tesla governments at all levels develop Brazil, Colombia and Mexico is and Unilever – are generating tremendous responsible policy that benefits business, $2.6 trillion; excitement and hope for a better world. society and the environment. Effective ●● climate-resilient infrastructure, where policy and legislation make climate progress $2.5 trillion of opportunities exist in India How to facilitate collaboration and business success synonymous. We must, and Bangladesh. If the mutual benefits are so clear, how and we can, do this – together.

CLIMATE 2020 34 NEW LEADERS

Abandoning oil

How do countries whose wealth is built on fossil fuels transition to a low-carbon, sustainable future?

By Eckart Woertz, Research Coordinator and Negative perceptions about the future a value-added tax. The UAE has a renewable Senior Research Fellow, and Luigi Carafa, of hydrocarbons have trickled down to the energy programme and has managed to Co-chair, Climate Futures, Barcelona Centre ranks of oil exporting countries. Low oil attract the International Renewal Energy for International Affairs (CIDOB) prices threaten their sociopolitical fabric. Agency (IRENA) to Abu Dhabi against stiff Oil revenues finance public sector jobs, competition from Bonn and Copenhagen. f many saw peak oil as an imminent fact welfare payments, armies and government Saudi Arabia and Qatar trail behind, but during the oil boom of the 2000s, it has agencies. Even the private sector depends have also launched initiatives to promote Inow been replaced by expectations of on subcontracting from oil-financed states. renewable energies on a large scale, especially ever-lasting abundance. The unconventional Whereas the chief economic benefit solar. The former Saudi oil minister Ali oil and gas revolution in the US has become of commodity extraction is derived from Al-Naimi even suggested that one day Saudi a game changer. Rather than rising to the owning the resource, the economics Arabia could make a living from exporting stratosphere, oil prices are set to fall to and value chains of renewable energy solar-generated electricity instead of oil. the bottom thanks to plentiful supply – so landscapes look very different. Sunlight Some of the goals are not as ambitions the story goes. Coal’s position is even less and wind are free. Revenue generation in as they may seem. The UAE’s target of enviable as it is crowded out by the improved the energy world moves up the value chain, seven per cent power generation capacity economics of natural gas and renewables, and from commodities to technologies. from renewable sources by 2020 would – in some countries – favourable legislation Countries that see their commodities only translate into a 2.5 per cent share of for these competing energy sources. fall in value but who do not have the actual power generation, because of the In the longer run, the transition capital and skills to master low-carbon intermittencies of such sources. to renewable energy might weigh on Some have suspected greenwashing and hydrocarbon prices, and not only in the playing to the international gallery by a power generation market. The transportation Diversification away country that has one of the largest carbon sector, for example, could also change footprints per capita in the world. GCC considerably. Electric mobility and battery from oil is declared economies are heavily geared towards technology are being buoyed by falling prices government policy in energy-intensive industries and lifestyles. and technological improvements. These and Energy subsidies for such lavish consumption other energy storage solutions are helping to all countries of the Gulf are part of the social contract and can only be ease the integration of renewables in existing Cooperation Council cut back at a political cost. energy mixes. Still, the GCC countries have had some Despite the US administration announcing success with economic diversification. They its intention to withdraw from the Paris technologies will lose out. Their revenue have moved up the value chain and are Agreement, political support for energy streams will decline. Unpaid bills, wages major players in heavy industries such as transitions still remains strong among the and contracts might lead to unrest and petrochemicals and aluminium. Logistics, other signatories – but also within the US financial crisis. tourism and services have developed into itself on a municipal and federal state level. Some oil exporters have started to reckon important sectors for the economy, not only The UN’s Sustainable Development with this new reality. They have repatriated in Dubai. Compared to countries such as Goals that were launched in 2015 are also foreign assets to finance budget deficits that Venezuela and Libya their starting position supportive. To have a 66 per cent chance of have emerged in recent years. Diversification is more comfortable, thanks to their relative meeting the Paris climate goals, the world away from oil is declared government policy political stability. Yet their dependence on needs to halve oil production and stop using in all countries of the Gulf Cooperation oil revenues is more pronounced than in coal for power generation. That means 80 Council (GCC), especially in the United Arab Russia and even Iran, both of which have less per cent of current coal reserves, one third of Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. The latter dynamic and open economies. oil and half of natural gas would have to be launched Vision 2030 in 2016 with the goal Will the electric car be a major threat written off. Conflicts about who will bear the of tripling non-oil revenue and balancing the to future political stability in the Middle costs are starting to emerge. budget by cutting subsidies and introducing East? This is a distinct possibility. Yet

CLIMATE 2020 NEW LEADERS 35 © Warren Little/Getty Images Little/Getty © Warren

Dwellings of camel herders on the outskirts of Dubai, holds the largest sovereign wealth fund in the as far back as the 1990s, but the market only United Arab Emirates. The Gulf states that have used world, worth $959 billion, whose resources started to expand in 2012 when the Tesla energy subsidies to fuel lavish consumption must urgently focus on economic diversification mainly come from the nation’s oil and gas Model S and Nissan LEAF arrived in the export revenues. market. As a result, Norway is transitioning As Norway’s Government Pension Fund to electric cars faster than any other country planes will still need kerosene, trucks diesel Global website candidly explains: “[the in the world. About 37 per cent of all new and ships fuel oil. About 30 per cent of oil fund] is saving for future generations in cars are either fully electric or plug-in consumption is used by the petrochemical Norway. One day the oil will run out, but the hybrids, and by 2025 the government expects industry and is unlikely to dwindle anytime return on the fund will continue to benefit that no more conventional cars will be sold in soon. Production declines in ageing oil fields the Norwegian population.” Since 2014, the country. require reserves to be replenished, which is the fund has proceeded with a risk-based The G20 will have to play a crucial hampered by lagging investments. divestment from fossil fuels (i.e. oil sands role in guiding the global transition to production and coal-fired power generation) low-carbon energy systems. The world’s The clock is ticking and deforestation (i.e. palm oil production, wealthiest 20 countries consume 95 per cent Even in the case of a long-term renewable pulp and paper), taking into consideration of coal, more than 70 per cent of oil and energy transition there might be a rebound both financial and climate risks. gas, and are responsible for 85 per cent of of oil prices in the middle run. Yet oil A truly transformational change is global investment in renewables. Over the exporters clearly do not count on it. The happening in Norwegian road transportation. next decade, the infrastructure investment decision to float a five per cent share of the Through the fund, the government is using decisions of the G20 finance ministers will state-owned oil company Aramco at a time oil money to heavily incentivise the purchase determine our climate future. The improved when oil prices have fallen indicates that of electric vehicles. Electric cars are exempt economics of renewables and natural gas the Saudi rulers do not expect sustainable from sales tax. Drivers can charge their increasingly weigh on coal and oil demand. higher prices in the future. vehicles for free, do not have to pay tolls and Hydrocarbon exporters such as Norway and But when it comes to preparing for the can use bus lanes to avoid traffic. the GCC countries have started to factor future, the undisputed leader within the oil Electricity generation mostly comes from in this new reality in their investment and world is Norway. The Scandinavian country hydropower. The subsidies were introduced diversification decisions.

CLIMATE 2020 36

FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES FCA 4.0: smart manufacturing for smart product

obility is now at the centre of a Technology (ICT) infrastructure, developed with highly disruptive technological different technological partners, known as the revolution. Today, the ability to New Plant Landscape (NPL) has already been compete is the domain of those deployed at major FCA plants worldwide. NPL Mwho are capable in the short and medium-term employs advanced ICT solutions to help achieve not just of reinventing their products to address high standards of quality in manufacturing and new customer experience paradigms, but also assembly processes through rapid decision- of conceiving new ways of producing them. making at all levels of the value chain. Automakers need to innovate in ways that The increased digitalisation of FCA plant are both revolutionary and responsible. Being workstations reinforces the concept that revolutionary means further accelerating the collaboration between humans and technology innovation process by opening it up to new can unlock opportunities in terms of efficiencies, contributors and agents of change such as ergonomics, quality and the empowerment of employees, customers and external partners. employees. At the same time, that process must be For more than 10 years, FCA has leveraged responsible, guided by the concept of a circular these opportunities through the implementation economy where flexible manufacturing systems of World Class Manufacturing (WCM) at allow a more intelligent use of materials, FCA plants worldwide. WCM represents the resources can be tracked and re-used, rather foundation of this progressive transition to a than just consumed. smart modular factory model. It provides FCA- FCA is already creating the right conditions specific language for deployment of the i4.0 and environment for this new era of innovation, concepts of lean, smart and digital production. digitalisation and automation. The formula The need for flexible manufacturing is for the future is called industry 4.0 (i4.0), and addressed within the i4.0 approach through FCA is already there with its company-specific another technology that FCA uses to create ‘combination of things’. on-demand parts for prototyping: industrial The ability to deliver innovative, high- 3D printing, also referred to as Additive quality cars depends on the ability to ‘think Manufacturing. premium’ for customers while ‘building Compared with conventional premium’ with workers across vehicle manufacturing, where machining is subtractive, segments. Information technology plays a key meaning that material is gradually removed in role in this progressive transformation of work shaping a component, this technology shapes processes, by: them by adding layers of material. 3D printing: n optimising collaboration and integration n permits much greater complexity when between humans and technology; shaping, opening up new possibilities in areas n maximising the added value we can glean such as aerodynamic design; from data and information gathered through n improves time-to-market, by enhancing the many thousands of actions required to speed to production and prototyping; produce a complex product like a car; n significantly reduces material use, waste n advancing the adoption of cybersecurity generation and energy consumption standards for connected systems; associated with these activities. n accelerating the paradigm shift in terms of worker skills and mindset. ‘Less is better’ is not simply a lifestyle trend that is becoming increasingly relevant FCA has recently implemented a new for customers – and millennials in particular. It approach to manufacturing through the redesign is becoming the central paradigm for the hard of plants as ‘digital factories’ based on the manufacturing industry as well. Operators during the assembly stage have direct access to real time manufacturing data through integrated modular factory model. A completely In recent years, FCA has continued to wearable devices new Information and Communication develop its know-how and technological 37

FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES

Alfa Romeo Stelvio 2017. Manufactured at the FCA plant in Cassino (Italy)

more than 1,400 robots, and more than 6,000 The Cassino plant and the Alfa Romeo The Alfa Romeo Stelvio connected devices, including smartphones Stelvio illustrate how FCA has conceived and and smartwatches that connect the built an i4.0 value chain combining – at the shows how FCA applies worker to the interconnected experience of same time – speed of change with processes manufacturing a vehicle. and products. FCA has transformed the rapid speed of change to The plant offers high standards of efficiency, change in technology into an i4.0 business workforce ergonomics and eco-sustainability. model that connects our plants, our suppliers processes and products It has sent zero industrial waste to landfill since and our dealers, up to the final customer. 2000. It has a zero carbon footprint: 100% of This net of people, processes, products electricity used in industrial processes comes and services allows manufacturing data capabilities in this area. The Mirafiori plant from renewable sources, including on-site solar to be transformed into information, which in Turin, Italy, hosts the FCA Center of power generation. The plant also plans to be fully then generates smart interactions within all Competence for Additive Manufacturing that self-sufficient in terms of water usage; through elements of the FCA value chain. supports product development from design innovations such as dry scrubbing technology, We support sustainable innovation to testing, with a total of more than 14,000 in the paint shop zero water is withdrawn from through a partnership of man and machine to components produced in 2016. The Center local resources for industrial purposes. develop and manufacture mobility solutions for works closely with Italian and international our customers. universities and experts to spread the technical Supporting sustainable innovation Looking toward the future, there are infinite know-how globally across the Group. The Alfa Romeo Stelvio is the most recent technical connections that can be created and The adoption of 3D printing is a clear example of how we design and build premium fostered between the people and machines example of an innovation that is revolutionary value for our customers. The Stelvio represents that engineer and manufacture our vehicles, and sustainable at the same time. This the positive impact that i4.0 can have on and the end driver. technology was applied for the creation of a few a product. It features a full array of cutting-edge thousand prototype parts during development technical solutions such as the world premiere of the Alfa Romeo Stelvio, manufactured at the Integrated Brake System (IBS), Autonomous Cassino plant, in Italy. Emergency Braking (AEB) with pedestrian One of FCA’s most advanced examples recognition and a full carbon fibre crankshaft. of i4.0 today is the Cassino assembly plant in The Stelvio features an outstanding power- Italy, where the Alfa Romeo Stelvio and Alfa to-weight ratio, thanks to the extensive use Romeo Giulia are manufactured. The Cassino of ultra-lightweight materials: carbon fibre for plant figures speak for themselves: over 11,000 the crankshaft and aluminium for hood, doors, UNA-UK thanks Fiat Chrysler Automobiles for its part numbers, an automation level assured by fenders, lift gate, engine and suspension. generous support for Climate 2020 38 NEW LEADERS

Technology: disruption needed

Can technology enable us to switch to sustainable energy in time to avoid global climate catastrophe? What can we do to ensure innovation and mass adoption happens before it’s too late?

By Varun Sivaram, Philip D. Reed Fellow unpopular. That’s because the options developing world. Technologies to capture for Science and Technology, Council on that are already commercially viable have and store carbon dioxide could make it Foreign Relations serious limitations. possible to keep using a limited amount of Thanks to falling costs, solar panels and fossil fuels without warming the planet. he promise of the Paris Agreement, wind turbines have attracted substantial which was signed in 2015 and investment in their deployment. But Running out of time Tentered into force in 2016, lies in they only work when the sun shines or The problem is that these technologies are its premise that countries will periodically the wind blows. As batteries get cheaper, not being developed and commercialised at ratchet up their commitments to reducing they can help store renewable energy for nearly the pace necessary to arrest climate their greenhouse gas emissions. So even a few hours. But they will remain far too change. Urgent investments in innovation though countries’ existing commitments expensive to smooth out the variation of are needed today, because it can take under Paris may not be strong enough to solar and wind over days, months and even decades for a new energy technology to avert catastrophic climate change, future seasons. All this means that claims of the achieve widespread adoption. commitments might be. cost-effectiveness of running the power Noted energy historian Vaclav Smil New and improved clean energy grid off 100 per cent renewable energy observes that there have been three energy technologies can entice countries to pledge much more stringent commitments. But whereas commercialising such technologies Technologies are not being developed at nearly the pace will require rising levels of investment in clean energy innovation, funding has necessary to arrest climate change. Urgent investments been shaky over the last decade. Although in innovation are needed today… it can take decades for there are some bright spots, most of the technologies needed to produce and use a new energy technology to achieve widespread adoption clean energy more cheaply and efficiently are progressing too slowly to transform are mostly hype. Recently, I co-authored an transitions over the last two centuries that the global energy system on the timescale article with 20 leading energy researchers in we can learn from. From 1840 to 1900, coal needed to confront climate change. the Proceedings of the National Academy of rose from supplying five per cent of global Public policy can change that. At Sciences debunking one of those claims. energy demand to 50 per cent, dethroning home, countries should invest in research, But a suite of new and improved clean wood as the largest energy source. Then development and demonstration of new energy technologies could mount a more from 1915 to 1965, oil beat out coal – rising technologies – not only to stock new realistic challenge to fossil-fuel dominance. from five per cent to 40 per cent. More weapons in the world’s arsenal to combat Next-generation nuclear reactors could be recently, from 1930 to 1985, natural gas climate change but also to seize a share of meltdown-proof, cheaper and more efficient rose from five per cent to 25 per cent. Smil’s the growing clean energy economic pie. than today’s reactors. Recently invented solar point is that each of these transitions took And abroad, countries should cooperate on coatings have the potential to be as cheap over half a century, and in the most recent fostering innovation and setting standards to as paint. More energy-dense batteries and one, natural gas still has not knocked oil off speed the introduction of new technologies. other energy storage technologies could the top spot. enable long-range electric vehicles and help Given how long these transitions take, Wanted: innovation grids cope with intermittent renewable it is disheartening that the development Trying to slash global carbon emissions just energy. Much more efficient air conditioners of new technologies in the private sector using existing clean energy technologies could curb skyrocketing energy demand as appears to be slowing down. We need would be expensive, complicated and the ranks of the middle class swell in the to invent, develop, and market new

CLIMATE 2020 NEW LEADERS 39 © Ramoul

The SwissTech Convention Center in Lausanne, have been granted has fallen after several trend and risen to mass adoption rapidly. Switzerland. The facade shown is made with panels years of growth. And my own research The best example is the light-emitting containing organic dye-sensitised solar cells, a new generation of photovoltaics with great potential co-authored through the MIT Energy diode (LED), a far more energy-efficient Initiative demonstrates that Silicon Valley alternative to the incandescent lightbulb. venture capital investors walked away from Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2020, technologies quickly, to start them along the funding many clean energy technologies, LEDs will account for over two thirds of long road to mass adoption. like new solar or battery materials, after lightbulb sales, up from one per cent a Recent research from Mark Muro at the losing over half of the $25 billion they decade earlier. Brookings Institution reports that since invested from 2006 to 2011. Many other technologies that use energy 2014 in the United States, the rate at which But it’s not all bad news. Some clean more efficiently and intelligently are new patents for clean energy technologies energy technologies have defied the general successfully raising private funding and

CLIMATE 2020 40 NEW LEADERS

gaining market traction. Stephen Comello The role of public policy Internationally, countries can work at Stanford University suggests that these That’s where governments can step in together to advance innovation. In addition technologies – including smart thermostats to accelerate clean energy innovation. to holding one another to account on their for the home or software to improve energy Domestically, they should invest in research, Mission Innovation pledges, countries efficiency of buildings – represent a second development and demonstration of new can also share insights into how best to wave of clean energy innovation. technologies – a step that can mobilise promote innovation. For example, the US This second wave, aimed at transforming further private investment. This would not might share lessons from its exemplary the way energy is used, is succeeding at be an altruistic move to help combat global government agency known as the Advanced garnering private investment where the first climate change; it would bring tangible Research Projects Agency-Energy wave, centred on technologies to clean up domestic economic benefits. Worldwide, (ARPA-E), which funds transformative the way energy is produced, failed. the clean energy market is already worth energy technologies. Germany might For a clean energy transition, we will around $300 billion annually. Countries that similarly share insights gleaned from its need both energy supply and demand develop advanced technologies will be most successful network of Fraunhofer Institutes. technologies. Still, noting the limited bright competitive in this market. Finally, countries can work together on spots of clean energy technology adoption, An encouraging development on this issues like technology standards, which set Benjamin Sovacool at the University of front is the Mission Innovation pledge made out specifications for clean energy products Sussex has suggested that with the right by 22 countries and the European Union that can speed their deployment. conditions in place, like supportive public to double their public funding for clean Innovation is an imperative that policy, a clean energy transition could energy innovation by 2021. Most countries should resonate around the world. And happen in just a decade. appear on track to meet their commitments, if countries come together to make the though the US under President Trump is requisite investments in advancing it, they now considering slashing its funding rather will be rewarded with prosperity and give Silicon nanowires grown on a patterned substrate – a model system that will be used as an advanced medium than increasing it. Doing so would be a the world a fighting chance to confront for photovoltaics and energy storage applications reckless mistake. climate change. © Christopher A Nakamoto/Oak Ridge National Laboratory Ridge A Nakamoto/Oak © Christopher

CLIMATE 2020 41

THE CONSUMER GOODS FORUM Refrigeration and harnessing the power of multinationals

esearch now shows that within four years we will pass the point of no return for keeping the global average temperature of rising to no more than R1.5°C. Reductions of CO through measures 2 such as the phasing out of chemical refrigerants, like hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), are necessary. Per a recent United Nations Environment Programme report, 80% of current HFC- emissions originate from industrialised countries; despite this, the European Union is the only governmental body that has actively worked to reduce HFC emissions. Europe has made great strides. Thankfully, however, governments are not to continue the phase-out of HFCs and call for And where Europe has led, other countries the only ones driving positive change. We can the inclusion of HFCs in the Montreal Protocol. have followed – the US Environmental see the threat that refrigerant gases pose to the This proposed amendment was included in Protection Agency’s (EPA) Significant New environment has been firmly acknowledged by 2016: a huge step towards the global phase-out Alternatives Policy (SNAP) programme has one influential group – the private sector. of harmful HFCs. sanctioned the use of a wide range of natural In association with The Consumer Goods However, for all the industry’s refrigerants (NRs) and banned other high-GWP Forum (CGF), whose members include achievements, there is scope for companies (global warming potential) refrigerants. The multinational consumer goods retailers and to be more ambitious in phasing out harmful US EPA’s GreenChill partnership and the North manufacturers, and other platforms such chemical refrigerants and moving to natural American Sustainable Refrigeration Council also as Refrigerants, Naturally!, the member alternatives. The benefits of doing so are help food retailers to reduce their refrigerant organisations recognise that given commercial not just environmental but economic too. gas emissions and decrease their impact on the refrigeration makes up around 40% of the When implemented at scale, a HFC phase- ozone layer. world’s HFC use, the opportunity for collective down will have huge impact and could prevent However, this picture is not the same action and impact is huge. warming of up to 0.1 °C by 2050 and 0.5 °C by globally. Some regions, including emerging There is significant scope for international 2100, offering one of the most cost effective markets in East Asia, South Asia and South companies to accelerate take-up of NRs in climate mitigation strategies available in the America, still have a long way to go in terms of multiple territories by setting policies at a global world today. their use of synthetic refrigerants. level. For example, Coca-Cola, Heineken, Red In short, no matter what industry you are Bull and Unilever have committed to eliminating in, the case for switching to natural refrigerants HFCs from their vending and cooler machines has never been stronger, and the time to move across the globe, which has boosted take-up of is now! NR equipment in places where progress might otherwise have been much slower. Similarly, See more: www.theconsumergoodsforum.com European supermarket chains Tesco and Metro

have introduced CO2 refrigeration in their stores in China after first successfully employing the technology in their core market of Europe. Back in 2010, the CGF’s members made a commitment to tackle the growing impact of refrigeration systems and, in a move to sustain momentum, the CGF’s Board announced a second Refrigeration Resolution in October 2016

Heineken CEO Jean-François van Boxmeer promoting the phase-out of chemical refrigerants at UNA-UK thanks the Consumer Goods Forum for the Consumer Goods Forum’s Global Summit in Berlin its generous support for Climate 2020 42 NEW APPROACHES

Positive counteraction

Who defines Trump’s impact on the Paris Agreement? You do

By Raj Thamotheram, Founder, As Mark Watts writes in this publication Preventable Surprises (see page 28), city and state legislators are particularly well placed to play a leadership he US withdrawal from the Paris role in this new context because “the cities Agreement got the immediate media that are able to deliver a sustainable, low- Tcoverage the Trump team wanted, carbon future the quickest will also be reassuring his core support base – climate the world’s healthiest, wealthiest, most change is a dog whistle issue in US politics equal and most liveable”. What Watts does today – while upsetting the ‘liberal elite’ the not spell out is that it is harder for fossil world over. Bull’s eye! fuel vested interests to capture city and But with each day and week that passes, state legislators. evidence suggests his actions may have The military could also play a stronger backfired. As Al Gore highlights, Donald leadership role, even in countries where Trump “has produced the largest upsurge corporate capture of politics is marked. in climate activism I’ve ever seen”. This According to Admiral Chris Barrie, activism extends well beyond popular the former Head of the Australian Defence protests and covers all walks of society. Force: “…we are approaching a time The one group that has not responded soon when there will be a serious possibility proactively is the big (and mainly US that no amount of effort in deploying head-quartered) institutional investors. the limited resources we have available This article describes the changed context, will be able to ameliorate the national highlights the comparatively weak response security problems and challenges we of these investors and identifies who can are confronting. We need to take decisive Images Angerer/Getty © Drew change this. action now to head off the most unpalatable of climate change outcomes and this perspective, the biggest fund managers have A major increase in activism requires strong, determined leadership assets under their management equivalent Global public opinion has been highly in government, in business and in our to the GDPs of some major countries. critical of the Trump team’s decision to communities.” BlackRock’s assets under management are withdraw from the Paris Agreement, with And actuaries, scientists and doctors equivalent to the GDP of Japan, Vanguard’s popular protests in many countries. But are just some of the other professionals to the UK. Investors define the pay and the the most important reaction has been in who are also helping to fill the climate career prospects of corporate CEOs and the US itself where many US states, cities leadership gap. there are myriad other connections that and companies have now made their direct mediate this influence. commitment to the Agreement. Invisible trillion-dollar gorillas What could and should investors be In the battle of billionaires, Michael In this context of activist-type engagement doing? Investors need to act as forceful Bloomberg’s response to personally pay by professionals, institutional investors have stewards and take shared responsibility the US’s share of the United Nations remained relatively passive. for the long-term development of their Framework Convention on Climate Investors have enormous influence investments by using their influence to Change budget is highly significant, not when it comes to corporate strategy and shape public policy, to guide investee least because Bloomberg was the Mayor of behaviour, arguably more than most companies and to direct informational New York. national governments. To put this in intermediaries. Let us take each in turn.

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 43

Also in this section

Dilemma for Asia and the Pacific 48

Energy infrastructure 52

Cleaner transport 56

The UN in partnership 60

Getting the message across 62

Legal remedies 65

First, let us consider forceful stewardship New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio on Wall Street. of climate-related public policy. What The strength of commitment to the Paris Agreement pledged by de Blasio and other mayors contrasts with would this look like? Historically, the the more muted support from the financial sector finance sector has been most effective when it is lobbying against something. In the US, the already minimalist ‘fiduciary duty rule’ has now been kicked together to lobby against fossil fuel subsidies into the long grass. And in Europe – despite – how they will step up their activities to significant cross-party political support – ensure policy change that means persuading the Financial Transaction Tax is still being others, notably US insurance companies, is delayed largely because of opposition from yet to be seen. the finance sector. A coordinated approach The way investors responded to the final to this kind of lobbying is required, but with report of the Taskforce on Climate-related a positive agenda. For example: to promote Financial Disclosure (TCFD) is another climate wellbeing. good example of the change that is needed. One early example of good practice is A close comparison of the impressive how some major insurance companies came list of companies that supported the Task

CLIMATE 2020 44 NEW APPROACHES

Force (notably, with considerable staff The forceful stewardship approach Let me be crystal clear: this focus on time), to the stellar roster of 103 companies Second, we need forceful stewardship of stewardship is very different from what whose CEOs signed a letter in support of investee companies. Equity but also debt, investors generally highlight when they are its recommendations, reveals some curious infrastructure and other investors must, if talking about climate change to the media discrepancies. they are genuinely climate aware, be explicit or at UN events. In the financial sector, for example, about the risks involved in ignoring, or Some speak of divestment, which can missing from the CEO signatories were going slow on, the transition to a low- challenge the legitimacy of the fossil fuel BlackRock, Banco Bradesco, JP Morgan carbon world. sector and can manage stock risk, and and Mercer. Yet all the organisations are Schroders is a good example of an perhaps even sector risk if exposure to said to have played very active roles in the asset management company that speaks the sector is significantly reduced. Some TCFD; indeed Banco Bradesco provided clearly to the mainstream press. The time speak of portfolio decarbonisation, which two Deputy Chairs for the TCFD. has passed for private gentle discussions, is a good strategy for delivering financial Some of the reasons for inaction cited include: “we don’t sign on to group statements”, “don’t worry about the CEO When we choose to think of Donald Trump as the signature – what matters is what the front- cause of the problem – and empower him in the line investment staff do in the day-to-day interactions with companies” and “we are a process – we forget that we, individually and collectively, complex organisation and we can’t bulldoze could be doing much more to walk our talk this change through”. We have also heard there is a culture, especially in the US, of financial sector company by company, about incremental outperformance at low cost (such as ‘smart organisations being active in responsible change. What is now needed is sector-wide beta’ investments) and which also has a investment projects with no expectation transformation, starting with the high- ‘virtue signalling’ effect when done by of visible or authentic CEO leadership. impact sectors, in particular energy utilities large numbers of big fund managers. Some This is, of course, very different from and automobiles. highlight their investment in green equity other organisations, such as the Business The best way to do this is for investors funds or climate bonds – and these can Roundtable and the World Business to vote for AGM resolutions calling for provide good investment returns and could Council for Sustainable Development, the companies to publish net-zero-by-2050 help trigger market change. where CEOs take a personal leadership role. transition plans. These two sectors, which While these can all be good strategies for Many of the big investors were also are the biggest users of fossil fuels, are maximising risk-adjusted portfolio returns missing from the letter voicing support also already facing disruption so there relative to peers, and creating a positive for the Paris Agreement. Also missing is every reason for investors to want to market narrative, none of these strategies were the six major US banks who called know how the coming transition will are primarily designed to manage systemic for “cooperation among governments in be handled. risk. Only forceful stewardship can do that. reaching a global climate agreement” ahead There is a very strong case for prudent This is an example of an ‘inconvenient of the Paris Agreement. Did the election of investors – whatever they think of the truth’ close to home for responsible Donald Trump really invalidate their earlier science of climate change – to want this investors and needs to be acknowledged, at judgment of risk? information and it is encouraging that in least in private, before investors can really The bottom line is that most of the 2016, 40-60 per cent of shareowners voted be part of the solution to climate change. 10 largest investment managers in the for such disclosure. world have stood back from giving their And finally, investors should research and Who can lead the way? full support to both TCFD and the Paris be forceful stewards of their own supply So who has to do what differently to get Agreement. These players – the vast chain and thus the critical informational forceful stewardship adopted? Who are the majority of whom are US headquartered – intermediaries, given the huge (but largely stakeholders who could persuade investment therefore share responsibility with President hidden) importance of sell-side and credit firm leaders to lead? Trump for missing this opportunity to rating analysts, voting advisers and auditors. The responsible investment professional contribute to a climate safe world, and in In the last financial crash, credit rating bodies (such as CDP, the Ceres Investors failing those who rely on their leadership. agencies played a major role in facilitating Network on Climate Risk, and Principles The good news is that five investment market mispricings. It will be critical for Responsible Investment) could usefully firms have demonstrated their leadership at that these powerful but largely hidden raise their membership bars. If they do the CEO level, which shows us that investor intermediaries don’t make the same mistake not do so, they risk – inadvertently and leadership is possible. with the ‘sub-clime’ crisis. unintentionally – masking the fact that

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 45

The 20 wealthiest countries and the 20 largest investment managers compared (US$ bn)

COUNTRY GDP INVESTOR AUM HQ United States 17,348 BlackRock 4,675 US China 10,357 Vanguard Asset Management 3,134 US Japan 4,602 State Street Global Advisors 2,460 US/UK Germany 3,874 Fidelity Investments 1,940 US United Kingdom 2,950 BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA 1,711 US France 2,834 J.P. Morgan Asset Management 1,540 US Brazil 2,347 Capital Group 1,419 US Italy 2,148 PIMCO 1,413 US India 2,051 Government Pension Investment Fund 1,255 Japan Russia 1,861 Pramerica Investment Management 1,177 US Canada 1,785 Amundi 1,052 France Australia 1,443 Goldman Sachs Asset Management International 1,029 US Korea 1,410 Norway Government Pension Fund Global 985 Norway Spain 1,407 Northern Trust Asset Management 938 US Mexico 1,291 Wellington Management 918 US Indonesia 889 Natixis Global Asset Management 894 France Netherlands 881 Franklin Templeton Investments 884 US Turkey 798 Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 877 Germany Saudi Arabia 746 TIAA-CREF 855 US Switzerland 704 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority 844 UAE

Source: Preventable Surprises/IMF. Figures based on 2014 the biggest investors – many of whom are have adopted the fossil free strategy and Pension Fund, which is active on several also members – are failing to do what they these cities could move to the next level: environmental, social and governance should be doing. Fossil Free 2.0, in other words, also focusing fronts, could also adopt a forceful These bodies could, for example, review on heavy demand sectors. And for cities stewardship approach. the membership of those investors who that have rejected divestment, then clearly All these examples have one thing in abstained or voted against resolutions forceful stewardship is the way forward. common. When we choose to think of calling for scenario analysis aligned with NGOs and philanthropic foundations Donald Trump as the cause of the problem Paris targets. These resolutions call simply concerned about the impact of climate – and empower him in the process – we for disclosure of scenario analysis and are change could make clear that they consider forget that we, individually and collectively, fully consistent with the recommendations forceful stewardship of the sectors that are could be doing much more to walk our talk, of the TCFD. major fossil fuel users to be as important as and this includes how we invest. Thus, it is entirely reasonable that divestment from fossil fuels. Any NGOs and So let’s stop asking what Trump’s impact investors who do not support such foundations that have rejected divestment on the climate will be. Rather let’s ask what resolutions should explain, in public, why should be especially supportive of forceful we will do differently now. That’s the only they want to continue to be members of stewardship. thing we have control over. responsible investment bodies. Religious leaders like the Pope could And if enough readers of this publication City mayors who are looking to punch also adopt this approach and so help end think big, this really could bend the curve of above their weight could ensure their the stand-off between their pro- and anti- greenhouse gases by 2020 and so transform pension funds act as forceful stewards. Some divestment advisers. The UN Joint Staff the world.

CLIMATE 2020 46

JUPITER OXYGEN CORPORATION Bridge to a cleaner energy future

hen considering the options to cut CO2 and where coal is the backbone of the Indian power sector, emissions and meet the targets of the accounting for over 70% of generation. Coal is abundant Paris Agreement, one solution may have in the country, and cheap; the government will necessarily

slipped below the radar: using CO2 as a keep investing in this resource and it is expected that the Wcommercial commodity instead of treating it as waste. share of coal in the primary energy mix will even increase Technologies exist to do this today. between now and 2040 (IEA, 2015). Any climate and The solution is especially appealing to emerging energy policy will have to consider that reality. This is where economies, where the use of fossil fuels will continue, and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS), today – likely increase, for decades – despite ambitious climate and the reuse of carbon (CCU) at scale in the near future policies. One case in point is India. With 18% of the global – come into play. By Thomas Weber, President, Jupiter Oxygen. population (1.3 billion people), India uses just 6% of the For example, one strategy has been developed to Weber is on the Board of world’s primary energy, and some 240 million people capture, utilise and store CO2, using oxygen combustion

Directors of the US Business still have no access to electricity. Limited availability of to capture CO2 from industrial facilities and power plants Council for Sustainable energy is a major obstacle to India’s development. The in order to inject it at high pressure into coal seams. Energy and also represents government’s primary goal is to boost economic growth, This approach is a game-changer as it combines several Jupiter Oxygen at the which at the same time will increase energy consumption. attributes that support the effective and environmentally Global CCS Institute and The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that India’s responsible use of fossil fuels (see schematic below ). the Carbon Sequestration energy demand will more than double by 2040 (IEA, 2015). First, the use of high flame temperature oxy- Leadership Forum But while per capita CO2 emissions are lower than combustion (burning fossil fuels in a boiler with nearly those of China and significantly lower than the US, India pure oxygen) maximises fuel efficiency and enables cost- is already the fourth largest carbon emitter. How to try effective carbon capture.

to meet energy needs while keeping CO2 in check? India Second, this oxy-combustion process produces both

plans to significantly increase renewable energy – for CO2 and nitrogen, which, when injected at high pressure example, with the 100 GW solar power initiative by 2022, (and permanently stored) in deep, unminable coal seams, as announced at COP 21 in Paris (Government of India significantly increases domestic gas production. The freed INDC 2015). However, the pace of economic change is too coal-bed methane (natural gas) is collected, sold and used, fast for renewables to take over an energy system where acting as an important bridge fuel in the transition to clean three quarters of energy demand is met by fossil fuels energy. (The process is referred to as Enhanced Coal-Bed

JUPITER OXYGEN’S CARBON CAPTURE PROCESS FOR COAL POWER PLANT RETROFITS

Oxy-combustion based carbon capture in conjunction with CO2 utilisation offers economic solutions to substantially mitigate emissions

CO2 Use / Reuse • Algal Biomass Industry • Building Materials • Synthetic Fuels

CO2 Use and Underground Storage • Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) • Enhanced Coalbed Methane (ECBM) Recovery • Submarine Extraction of Methane from Hydrate

Schematic: JOC carbon capture technology developed in conjunction with National Energy Technology Laboratory of US Department of Energy 47

JUPITER OXYGEN CORPORATION

Methane “ECBM” recovery, and has been field tested in the USA, Canada and China). AN AWARD-WINNING TECHNIQUE Third, the synergy of oxy-combustion, carbon capture and utilisation creates significant additional Dr Vikram Vishal, Assistant Professor from the Indian revenue streams. The greatest obstacle to date for the Institute of Technology Bombay, was awarded the Indian implementation of carbon capture technology at power National Science Academy Medal for Young Scientist plants has been the added capital expenditures and 2017 and the National Award 2017 by the Indian reduced operating efficiency, leading to higher electricity Ministry of Earth Sciences. He received the awards for costs. Having a viable CBM/ECBM market available, where his research on CO capture and storage combined with the captured CO as well as nitrogen can be sold to CBM/ 2 2 methane recovery in coal beds. ECBM facilities, creates an immediate business case for oxy-combustion-based carbon capture at coal-fired power What are the most innovative parts of your discovery? plants. Revenues from the sale of CO2, nitrogen and other by-products will offset the higher costs of operating power I generated underground conditions in the laboratory and replicated the plants with carbon capture. In addition, co-benefits of this movement of liquefied CO2 into the rocks. This enabled a significant advance advanced coal power plant operation are 95% reduction of in the understanding of carbon dioxide’s phase change behaviour in deep- seated reservoirs. The results have been used to model the CO storage CO2 emissions, air pollutant control (SOx, NOx, particulate 2 matter and mercury removal), as well as heat recovery capacity vis-à-vis enhanced gas recovery potential for selected Indian (which increases the efficiency of the process) and water reservoirs. The models worked well to predict values of additional methane recovery (a particularly valuable scarce resource in India). recovery. We are now ready for field-based trials in the prospective basins. The value of carbon capture and storage via ECBM technology has been recognised by the Indian National Where did your ideas come from? Science Academy (see interview with Dr Vikram Vishal ). I grew up in an industrial city in India and was intrigued by the fate of black

smoke emitted from the chimneys. I chose to study the storage of CO2, Tapping the potential produced by large coal-fired power plants located in close proximity to the Jupiter Oxygen Corporation (JOC), a pioneer in oxy- coal fields. I was primarily motivated to look for ways to improve our energy combustion technology, has commenced an initial security, but was also looking to reduce the cost of CO2 storage. commercial CCUS-ECBM project in Xinjiang Province (western China), which includes retrofitting coal-fired What is the biggest obstacle to the take-up of this technology? power plants with JOC’s high flame temperature oxy- The first is the need to build a more complete understanding of the geological combustion and CO capture technologies. In addition, JOC 2 uncertainties. Other challenges relate to training, better information on the is pursuing demonstration project development in West capture and storage sites, the economics of the operation and improving Bengal, India, potentially including collaboration between social awareness. However, these challenges are all addressable. Site-specific JOC and the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay. studies and pilot projects should be explored. Support from the government, In India the potential for this technology is substantial. the involvement of the industry, international collaboration and more focused The country has large coal reserves, but not much natural R&D will be instrumental to success. Encouragingly, India appears to be ready gas. There are estimated to be 70 to 90 trillion cubic feet to work on these and is showing commitment to address climate change. (2.0 to 2.6 trillion cubic metres) of coal bed methane in place, of which 20 trillion cubic feet (0.57 trillion cubic metres) are recoverable with conventional CBM. Almost the same volume again is potentially recoverable with of all carbon capture and storage in 2050 will need to be ECBM (Kuuskraa, 2009). And exploiting the full potential in non-OECD countries, where energy demand is growing of ECBM in India could deliver several billion metric tons and fossil fuels remain an important resource. Meanwhile, of CO2 storage capacity. As ECBM projects come into the fight against climate change is becoming a race against existence and expand, infrastructure and expertise will time. A recent report by the University of Washington grow, enabling identification of the business opportunities shows that there is only a 5% chance of keeping global that take advantage of proximity between the unminable warming below 2°C by 2100. coal seams and CO2 ‘source’ facilities. Some of these As a complement to renewables and energy efficiency, opportunities have already been identified for India in a CCUS and CCU offer an important bridge to a cleaner recent study commissioned by JOC (ARI, 2015). energy future, allowing us to be smarter about fossil fuels. In essence, this is a sector where India can - ARI (2015) Advanced Resources International: Screening-Level demonstrate leadership. India’s Nationally Determined Assessment of Enhanced Coalbed Methane and CO2 Enhanced Oil Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement calls for Recovery Opportunities in India technological solutions and international collaboration on - IEA (2015) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook clean coal. Furthermore, India is committed to reduce the - Government of India (2015): India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution carbon intensity of its GDP by 33-35% by 2030 from 2005 UNA-UK thanks Jupiter - Kuuskraa VA, Stevens SH (2009) World gas shales and levels, a goal that is hard to reach without addressing fossil unconventional gas: a status report. Presented at United Nations Oxygen for its generous fuel emissions. But it’s not just India. The IEA says that 70% Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, Dec 2009 support for Climate 2020 48 NEW APPROACHES © Noel Celis/AFP/Getty Images © Noel Celis/AFP/Getty

By Bambang Susantono, Vice-President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Asia and the Pacific: Development, Asian Development Bank sia and the Pacific continues climate change to experience rapid economic Adevelopment, with the region’s economies posting 5.8 per cent growth in gross domestic product in 2016, representing dilemma 60 per cent of global growth. For decades this growth has been In a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, the facilitated by the consumption of fossil fuels. Continued economic expansion, widening poorest are most exposed. Efforts to improve prosperity must access to electricity and rapid proliferation of not exacerbate the problem the vehicle fleet are key contributors to Asia’s growing share of global greenhouse gases, which could rise to 48 per cent by 2030 from approximately 40 per cent in 2016.

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 49

Children living on the waterfront in Tondo, the economies and generate conflicts in both can come from better energy efficiency. Philippines, play amongst the rubbish washed ashore rural and urban areas. Investment in energy efficiency is a key following a typhoon. The country has a disproportionate number of cities threatened by sea-level rises driver of low carbon growth. Mitigation opportunities to reduce risk Commitments to the reduction of Transforming the response of cities and greenhouse gas emissions are at the heart of the energy sector are key to addressing the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) Economies in the region need to rapidly mitigation of greenhouse gases and reducing under the Paris Agreement. Asia and the decarbonise to alter this trend. the impacts of climate change. Pacific’s NDCs show the potential for the The region remains extremely vulnerable Cities have the greatest opportunity to region to substantially contribute to limiting to the impacts of climate change. A Region mandate the use of renewable energy, build earth’s global warming, and there is leeway at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate green infrastructure, promote sustainable for bigger ambitions. Change in Asia and the Pacific, a new transport and create flood-free environments. Under current NDC submissions, the publication from the Asian Development Designing green, sustainable and resilient People’s Republic of China has committed Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for urban plans is essential to slowing global to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by Climate Impact Research (PIK), shows that warming and multiplying opportunities to 60-65 per cent by 2030, India by 33-35 per under a business-as-usual scenario, expected effectively address the future impacts of cent and Indonesia by 29 per cent. Under temperature increase over the land area of climate change. a business-as-usual scenario, these three Asia could reach as much as 6ºC by 2100. Even if the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature rise to below 2ºC is met, Figure 1. Possible impacts of climate change-related resource Asia and the Pacific will still experience a shortages on rural and urban populations greater frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, widespread coral bleaching Glacial retreat Coastal and Continued Drought and Salinisation and decreased riverine rapid growth water scarcity of soil and erratic precipitation patterns. In the summer runoff flooding of megacities high mountains of Asia, glaciers will recede, increasing water discharge in rivers and flooding land and communities, while Increased Impacts on Growth of dependence causing water shortages due to the glaciers’ hydrological infomal on global cycle settlements diminished capacity for natural water storage. supply chains Sea-level rise will challenge the region’s increasingly urbanised coastline: 19 of the 25 Reduced Increased Increased Inter-/intrastate irrigation and vulnerability to vulnerability to water conflicts cities globally most exposed to a one-meter food production global climate local climate sea-level rise are in the region; seven are in disaster events disaster events the Philippines. Increase in Climate change impacts on human Denotes factors Increase in rural and which increase Migration to urban poverty, agrarian systems, including food supply (agriculture conflict potential urban centres crime and poverty and fisheries), human health (undernutrition disease and heat stroke) and security and migration will be unparalleled, according to the report. Source: ADB, 2017 Effects on rural areas Effects on urban areas Rice yields in most Southeast Asian countries could decrease by as much as 50 per cent, While the region is already investing countries were projected to comprise 89 per which could lead to an additional 26,000 in clean energy, ADB’s Asian Development cent of Asia and the Pacific’s total emissions child deaths (deaths of those under five years Outlook (ADO) 2016 Update: Meeting the by 2030. old) annually by 2030, primarily due to Low-Carbon Growth Challenge shows that The ADO Update conducted various undernutrition. much broader action is required. modelling scenarios for Asia’s carbon future. With natural resources at the brink, Developing Asia needs to invest an Figure 2 compares two scenarios: ‘INDC’ poverty in rural areas could become more additional $300 billion per year through which assumes implementation of the prevalent and migration to cities could be 2050 in renewable power, carbon capture current intended NDCs (INDCs) up to 2030 inevitable, leading to a growth in informal and storage, smart grids and energy storage and mitigation strengthening at a constant settlements. As illustrated in Figure 1, to avoid locking itself into a high-carbon rate thereafter; and ‘INDC to 2ºC scenario’ climate change not only threatens energy, development path that would be costlier to which follows the INDC scenario to 2030 water, and food security, but also has the reverse. The study also shows that a third of and then assumes strengthened mitigation to potential to destabilise local and national the region’s emissions reductions by 2050 meet the Paris goal by 2100.

CLIMATE 2020 50 NEW APPROACHES

The figure represents cuts in emissions Technology Fund, with a $40 million against a base case, business as usual contribution from the Government of Japan scenario. Under the INDC scenario to to promote a broad range of technologies

2050, emissions would be reduced by half 1 metre and innovative solutions in areas such as by China, nearly 40 per cent by Indonesia climate change, energy and transport. and 20 per cent by India, with the rest of ADB has also established the Asia Pacific the region making more modest cuts. As 19 Climate Finance Fund (ACliFF) with a $30 out of can be seen by the scale of the gap between 25 million contribution from the Government the INDC and INDC to 2ºC scenarios, the cities globally most exposed to a one-metre of Germany to support the development region needs to adopt a greater urgency if it sea-level rise are in Asia and the Pacific; and implementation of financial risk is to avert catastrophic climate change. seven are in the Philippines management products to help unlock capital The pricing of carbon emissions and the for climate investments including enhancing removal of subsidies for fossil fuel based resilience of projects. These two funds energy production and consumption will could not only cut global emissions of help ADB enshrine its commitment for incentivise clean energy investments and carbon dioxide by more than 20 per cent, innovation in the region. facilitate decarbonisation. but also raise government revenue by In 2016, ADB approved a record $3.7 The People’s Republic of China is approximately $3 trillion. billion in climate financing from its own currently readying itself to implement a Such funds could then partly be used resources and committed to scale up to $6 national emissions trading scheme building in furthering mitigation and proving support billion by 2020. ADB projects also mobilised on 10 years of emissions trading experience, to achieving the climate resilience of rural an additional $701 million from external initially through the Clean Development and urban communities. The private resources. Mechanism and seven carbon market pilots. sector also plays a vital role in reducing These actions are taken in recognition Establishing enabling environments through risk and facilitating access to clean energy that Asia and the Pacific is the region where effective regulatory mandates such as the use investments. the battle against climate change will be of renewable energy is critical to successful won or lost. ADB will exert every effort proliferation of low-carbon technology. Role of financial risk management for to assist its developing member countries In a report published in 2015, the technology deployment in addressing climate change through its International Monetary Fund demonstrated In support of these key policy areas, ADB commitments to scale up finance, enhance that eliminating post-tax energy subsidies has recently established the High-Level knowledge support and impart innovative technology. The only way to meet the goals of Figure 2. Emissions reductions by 2050 under the ‘INDC’ the Paris Agreement and Sustainable and ‘INDC to 2°C‘ scenarios, compared to business as usual Development Goal 13 (on climate action) is Developing Asia total to pursue a low-carbon and climate resilient 90 development pathway, and to do it with determination and urgency. Solutions to both mitigate greenhouse 60 gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change will come at a cost. But the cost of not acting will be much 30 larger and may include a reversal of the % reduction major development gains made over recent decades. 0 PRC ESEAP India Indonesia South Asia Sources: - ADB. 2017. A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific Source: ADB, 2016 INDC INDC to 2°C - ADB. 2016. Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2016 Update: Meeting the Low-Carbon Growth Challenge - ADB. 2016. The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Notes: East and Southeast Asia and the Pacific (ESEAP) includes American Samoa, Brunei, Cambodia, Fiji, Mitigation in Developing Asia French Polynesia, Guam, Kiribati, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Marshall Islands, - Germanwatch. Global Climate Risk Index 2017 the Federated States of Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Caledonia, the Northern Mariana Islands, - Global Carbon Atlas. 2017. www.globalcarbonatlas. Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Thailand, Timor-Leste, org/en/CO2-emissions Tonga, Vanuatu, Viet Nam, Taipei, and Hong Kong. South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, - IMF. 2015. How large are global energy subsidies? the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. IMF Working Paper WP/15/105.

CLIMATE 2020 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

An annual UNA-UK publication providing analysis and recommendations on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

In Spring 2018, the United Nations Association – UK will publish the fifth edition of its definitive series on the post-2015 development agenda.

Sustainable Development Goals will provide a thorough appraisal of how the new universal goals are being implemented and propose strategies to deliver the transformation to which they aspire.

Written by the world’s leading authorities, Sustainable Development Goals is aimed at policy-makers, practitioners and interested observers.

Launch date: Spring 2018

Visit the Sustainable Development Goals website: www.sustainablegoals.org.uk For more information, email: [email protected] 52 NEW APPROACHES © 2016 Morten Falch Sortland Morten© 2016 Falch Energy storage and transmission

Switching our energy use from fossil fuels to renewables will require a fundamental upgrade to the infrastructure that distributes and stores power. How are countries making progress?

By Kamel Ben Naceur, Director of Another IEA scenario, compatible with Since the beginning of the decade, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, the Paris COP21 (the 2015 UN climate political support and technological progress Research Division, IEA conference) ambition of limiting the have combined to accelerate the pace of temperature increase to less than 2°C, decarbonisation of power generation. he power sector is the largest sees the power sector reaching net-zero This has led to some spectacular results.

emitter of CO2 today, with emissions emissions by 2060. In 2016, generators across the globe set a projected to increase rapidly unless The ingredients in reaching such new record, adding 161 GW of electrical T 1 we take swift action. In the International an unprecedented transformation capacity through new renewable sources. Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) base case scenario include: a profound change in the power In Germany, on one day, the share of (which takes into account existing energy generation primary mix (from fossil fuels electricity supplied by renewable sources and climate commitments, including those to renewables and carbon capture and reached 87 per cent. A handful of countries in the Paris Agreement), electricity demand storage, or CCS); a similar shift in energy – including Paraguay and Iceland – have more than doubles between 2015 and 2060, demand management; an expansion and already reached the holy grail of 100 with CO2 emissions reaching 15 billion tons upgrading of electricity grids; and an per cent. But despite these encouraging per year from power generation. accelerated deployment of storage. examples, sadly most countries today do

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 53

Votna, one of a series of man-made lakes feeding a production plants to consumers. With more Systems of the future hydroelectric power station in Hordaland county, Norway. and more end users now able to generate A final pillar of electricity infrastructure in a Improved connectivity between countries will allow other parts of Europe to store energy in the Nordic reservoirs, their own power (for example through solar low-carbon energy system is active demand- mitigating the variability of their own renewable sources panels), high and mid-voltage electricity side management, through the suite of networks are being transformed to include digital technologies covered by smart grids. not have such potential for renewable more distributed generation (where The architecture of the electricity system energy generation. power is generated where it is used) and of the future requires interoperability and For most, the pace of transition is not interconnectors. solutions such as adapted business models rapid enough. The question, then, is Globally, electricity networks represent that make the system flexible. whether 100 per cent low-carbon power 40 per cent of the investment in electricity Grids of tomorrow need to be able generation is achievable in the near future. generation, transmission and distribution, to cope with variable (solar, wind) and And, given the intermittent nature of at $280 billion per year. By 2060, the planet inflexible (nuclear, gas with CCS) supply, renewable sources, what increasing role will will need network size to increase by 75 as well as flexibility on the demand side due energy storage have to play? per cent, with a much greater emphasis on to distributed generation. The renewable Today, worldwide energy storage stands at flexibility and interconnection. energy future won’t just include new 150 GW of ‘pumped hydro’ (energy stored equipment – new types of storage, heat by pumping water uphill), and only about Network expansion pumps, and so on – it must also factor in 1 GW of all other storage technologies Another fundamental change that needs to new behaviour from consumers. combined. In the 2°C scenario, total occur is in the regional expansion of power The IEA has created a thematic network storage needs to triple, and there are few networks. Until now, power grids have (IEA DSM Technology Collaboration expansion possibilities for hydro. The focus been viewed mostly as national investments, Programme) with the purpose of developing instead will be on smaller-scale, modular with little consideration for inter-country and promoting tools and information on technologies like batteries that can be connections. This is now changing. In demand-side management and energy deployed anywhere in the power system. Europe, the European Commission has efficiency. Battery cost-cutting will be an essential stepped up its regional interconnection Among the 25 Tasks that have been factor, as today’s cost ($300 per kWh) will ambitions, with plans to invest up to €140 defined by the IEA DSM, behavioural need to decline by a factor of four by 2050 billion by 2020 through so-called projects change occupies an important place. DSM to make the scenario viable. The current of common interest. These include high- policies and energy efficiency’s uptake generation of batteries uses lithium-ion voltage DC (HVDC) transmission or are not only dictated by technologies and chemistry. For electric vehicles, the most connection projects. policies, but also by behavioural and societal common type of battery uses nickel and The worldwide capacity of HVDC drivers and barriers. manganese with cobalt or aluminium. transmission links and interconnectors The IEA DSM, starting with the There are concerns about the short-term amounts to about 250 GW (roughly the consideration that the human need availability of lithium for such a fast-growth generation capacity of France and Italy for the services derived from energy market. Other metals will also experience combined). This capacity needs to expand and behavioural interventions are both similar demand growth issues – cobalt, for by a third by 2020 – and double by 2025 – if important, has developed a different example, for which two thirds of the current we are to meet the 2°C scenario. The prime behavioural change framework, including supply comes from a single country, the reason for this expansion is to accommodate collective impact approach and storytelling Democratic Republic of Congo. an order of magnitude increase of variable as overarching methodologies. To help ensure battery costs can indeed renewable energy between now and 2060. Capturing the full benefits of energy fall over the longer term, other technologies That could represent a significant shift in storage require further development of are being tested to potentially replace power transmission technology. market and regulatory frameworks. A lithium, such as sodium sulphur and flow Today, alternating current (AC) is the particular focus should be made on the batteries. Another strategy is reusing end- preferred global platform for homes and integration of storage systems with existing of-life batteries, such as those from electric businesses. For medium to long-distance grid infrastructure or with on-site power vehicles, to provide ancillary services to transmission (above 600 km), HVDC is generation. Demand side management, electricity networks. preferred to HVAC transmission. For including behavioural aspects, data analytics interconnection, synchronising different AC and resiliency are all necessary ingredients The flow of power systems can be complex, due to the voltage for a successful implementation. Today, the installed infrastructure of and frequency requirements. electricity networks spans more than 50 Therefore, HVDC is increasingly used to 1 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st million km. Traditionally, the flow of power connect large AC systems, such as in South Century. (2017). Advancing the Global Renewable has been monodirectional, from large America and in Nordic/Baltic Europe. Energy Transition. Paris.

CLIMATE 2020 54

VOITH

Harnessing hydropower Hydropower technology provider Voith is working towards a more effective renewable energy future

By Uwe Wehnhardt, President and CEO of Voith role in this evolution, as worldwide hydropower reservoir in order to be released again when Hydro, member of the Voith Corporate Board generation will increase as well. demand for power increases. of Management and Board member of the What is the secret of hydropower? International Hydropower Association It’s the very efficient transformation of the Major advantage: storage capability mechanical energy stored naturally in water, In fact, pumped storage power plants are vital enewable energy is undoubtedly the firstly into the mechanical torque of the for the secure, sustainable and cost-effective most sustainable answer to rising machine’s shaft via the turbine, and secondly supply of renewable energies. They represent energy demands. And hydropower the conversion of shaft torque into electrical the only system capable of storing energy on an plays a key role in environment-friendly energy by the generator. industrial scale like a battery does. This enables Rpower generation from regenerative energies. There are three types of hydropower them to complement weather-dependent It is the leading renewable source of electricity stations which can be used to exploit the wind and solar power, making them especially generation globally, supplying 72 per cent of all stored energy in water. First, there is the ‘run- suitable for compensating fluctuations between renewable energy sources within the worldwide of-river’ power station, where the electricity power surpluses and shortages. electricity mix. is generated from flowing water in a river. Indeed, pumped storage plants provide In 2015, renewables accounted for more Second, there is the ‘reservoir’ energy source, proven responsiveness to these fluctuations in than half of all new electricity generation where power is generated through the release demand, with modern systems needing only capacity globally for the first time. By 2040, of water stored in a naturally-fed reservoir 30 seconds to start from a standstill. For this power generation from renewable energies will behind a dam. A third model is the ‘pumped reason, they are able to contribute significantly increase to account for a third of today’s total storage’ power plant, where stored water is to regulating and stabilising the power grid. Their energy production. Hydropower will play a major recycled by pumping it back up to a higher special combination of storage system, reserve 55

VOITH

Hydropower is renewable, reliable, affordable and good for economic and social development

billion tons of CO2 emissions will be avoided networks. They are thereby often a precursor by the use of hydropower globally. Moreover, for economic growth and social development the 2015 Hydropower Report revealed that and maintain their position as one of the most World Energy Council countries – where the reliable and cost efficient renewable energy share of hydropower in electricity production sources. This is also because tens of thousands is higher than average – generally have lower of existing weirs, smaller dams and locks could

CO2 emissions per kWh of electricity generated. be used for hydropower generation right away. For this reason, an ever increasing number of countries around the world are looking to Conclusion maximise the potential of hydropower. Hydropower is renewable, reliable, affordable Within the next two years There are many opportunities for and good for economic and social development. over one half of the world's hydropower development throughout the Its storage and base load capabilities, as population will have access world and although there is no clear consensus, well as low carbon dioxide emissions, make estimates indicate the availability of more hydropower a valuable resource in achieving to the internet. than 10,000 terawatt hours/year of unutilised current climate change targets. It is versatile and Today it is only about one third. hydropower potential worldwide. A household offers significant unexploited potential in highly of three consumes 3,000 kilowatt hours of industrialised countries, as well as in emerging power on average every year. Hence the unused or developing regions. And, in particular, the potential could serve the equivalent of 3.3 billion demand for pumped storage power plants households. will continue to grow, as they enable countries Energy (during whole lifetime) Energy Outputaround the world to maximise their use of other PaybackUntapped potential= is everywhere fluctuating renewable energy sources, even as The hydropower facilities installed today vary overall (construction,demand for operation, electricity dismantling, increases. Ratio Energy Input raw material extraction and processing) in terms of generation capacity from less than 100 kilowatts, to more than 18 gigawatts. About Voith Nevertheless, in most highly developed Voith has been a leading supplier of hydropower countries, the potential of technically usable technology since its origins in 1870, and has hydropower is still far from exhausted. been advancing the technology ever since. As At the end of 2015, the leading a full-line supplier covering the entire lifecycle hydropower generating countries were China, and every component of new and existing large the US, Brazil, Canada, India and Russia. China and small hydropower plants, it is only logical The energy demand equivalent to operates the world’s largest hydropower plant, that new products and solutions are also being the Three Gorges Dam (18,200 megawatt), developed for the digital hydropower plants

3.3 billion but also a series of other large-scale plants, of the future. Digital solutions will help energy households could be served by harnessing unutilised hydropower including Xiluodu and Baihetan (approx. suppliers run their hydropower plants even potential worldwide. 12,000 megawatts). Power stations like these more efficiently or reduce operational costs. In clearly demonstrate how hydropower has addition, analysed and interpreted operational been able to reliably supply countless millions data will allow a much deeper understanding of of people with power over decades. But the hydropower machine behaviour. power and flexibility makes pumped storage enormous potential for power generation in plants true multi-functional power stations for emerging countries and at smaller ensuring system adequacy. scales is still to be maximised. Hydropower plants with an output of up Preventing unnecessary emissions to 30 megawatts can have immense impacts. These storage capabilities, in combination with In certain remote and mountainous regions low carbon dioxide emissions, make hydropower small hydropower plants guarantee a local, www.voith.com a valuable resource in achieving governmental stable power supply. They bring electricity to Only 31 GW targets aimed at reducing the impact of climate thousands of people. Rural societies running of the considerable change. Current model calculations show small-scale industries can immensely benefit hydropowerUNA-UK thanks Voith for its that between 2015 and 2050, more than 120 from well-interlinked hydropower plant potentialgenerous ofsupport 473 GW for Climate 2020 Using hydropower avoids are being used at present. 225 million metric tons of carbon pollution in the U.S. each year – equal to the output of approximately 42 million passengers cars. 6,5% 56 NEW APPROACHES

Clean transport: where next for Europe?

What can Europe learn from its vehicle emissions scandal? Can it hope to lead the world again in developing the clean transportation systems essential to avoid climate catastrophe?

By William Todts, Executive Director, America. These standards were followed Transport & Environment by similar exercises in the US, Japan and Korea, leading to what some dubbed the he defining challenge of our time global race for cleaner cars. is the fight against climate change. Two years after the outbreak of the TIndeed, if we fail, we will be making ‘Dieselgate’ scandal, Europe’s reputation large parts of the world uninhabitable and for leadership in clean transportation causing enormous stress to the world order lies in tatters. Volkswagen was the first as we know it. to get caught and fined for cheating on One of the major contributors to global emissions tests but it soon became clear warming is transport. Globally it accounts that VW was just the tip of the iceberg. for 14 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions. All of Europe’s household brands were In developed economies it is responsible for engaged in similar types of optimisation, roughly a quarter of emissions. In recent creative testing and use of software to decades transport emissions have increased pass emission tests. Millions of cars have steadily. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s been recalled and millions more will likely objectives, we will need to reverse this trend follow in the coming months. The scandal and cut emissions to near zero by the middle was primarily related to NOx emissions of the century. but also extends to carbon emissions and This is a daunting challenge. Europe has fuel use. traditionally been a frontrunner in the fight And just when everyone thought things against climate change, including in the field couldn’t get any worse, VW and fellow of transportation. The EU’s CO2 standards German carmakers Mercedes and BMW for new cars, adopted in 2009, were the became embroiled in a scandal regarding executives. Here is a car that is faster, more world’s most ambitious and promised to cut what may turn out to be the biggest cartel comfortable, cheaper and, above all, cleaner new car CO2 and fuel use by 40 per cent in in EU history. The cartel is – you guessed than many of its premium brethren. 12 years. These regulations were adopted at a it – related to diesel emissions. The days of European leadership on clean time when people around the world thought Meanwhile, Europe’s carmakers are transportation seem long gone and Europe’s of European cars as the best in the world. being outcompeted left, right and centre unhealthy love affair with diesel is to blame. Europe’s leading position was not just when it comes to new technologies. However, Europe is still very much the a reputational affair. Indeed, Europe’s California and China are where most car master of its own destiny. In fact, the diesel environmental standards were copied across innovation happens today – be it the field crisis may well turn out to be a blessing in the globe. The so-called Euro standards of electrification or vehicle automation. disguise and could be the ‘shock therapy’ that measure vehicle exhaust pollution are The launch of Tesla’s Model 3 has sent Europe needs to reclaim its already vanishing still used in much of Asia, Africa and South shivers down the spines of Europe’s car leadership on clean transportation.

CLIMATE 2020 carbon dioxideemissions.To reduceCO need toeliminate,ratherthanjustreduce, greater understandingofthefactthatwe signing oftheParisAgreementisamuch One ofthethingstoemergeafter The road ahead about the renewable energy and electric about therenewable energyandelectric explains environmentalists’excitement different technologicalsolution. This of 90-100percentrequireanaltogether diesel engineswoulddothetrick. Butcuts emissions by, say, 20per cent,improved 2

in lithium-ion batteries mean battery in lithium-ionbatteries meanbattery vessels andaircraft?”Recentdevelopments we getcleanelectricitytopower vehicles, defining questionintransportis: “Howdo plentiful andcheap. where electricityisnotjustclean butalso That meanswecannowimagineafuture new powercapacityinEuropeisrenewable. generation –andthisiswhyvirtuallyall are nowthecheapestformsofnewpower vehicle revolutions.Wind andsolarenergy Indeed, youcouldarguethattoday’s revolution ifwe are to achieve sustainable mobility transit systems willneedto accompany thecleancar under London and10new stations. Improved mass project, whichentails26 milesoftrain tunnels cost reductionthat enablesTesla tosell a we areheadedfor$117.It’s thismassive battery powercostaround$1,175. Now solve thatproblem.In2010akWh of vehicles areclearlythetopcontender to

Work onCrossrail, Europe’s biggest infrastructure NEW APPROACHES CLIMATE 2020

Global greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector

24% % 6 14% 25% 21% 10% Electricity and Agriculture, forestry Buildings Transportation Industry Other heat production and other land use energy

Source: IPCC (2014); based on global emissions from 2010. Details about the sources included in these estimates can be found in the Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

65 kWh car with around a 400 km range the foot off the accelerator and postpone A mobility revolution for $35,000 – that’s roughly the cost of a investments. Alternatively, they could The answer to this question will come comparable BMW, Audi or Mercedes. By sell new technologies elsewhere and keep in November when the European the early 2020s electric cars will be cost selling diesel in Europe. After all, they Commission presents new car emission competitive with diesel and petrol – not just have been selling diesel and petrol engines rules. The Commission is considering new for premium vehicles but for family cars too. for a hundred years, so they could easily targets for 2025 and 2030 and is, for the That’s the reason why virtually all major continue doing so for another few decades. first time, looking at a specific sales target carmakers are rushing to join the electric Oil companies and diesel engine parts for zero-emission cars. vehicle (EV) race. suppliers will use their clout to postpone the With ambitious new standards, Europe It is true that Europe’s industry isn’t rise of electric cars. For them it is a matter would push its mighty car industry in leading this race. Tesla is a Californian of survival. And this is where the Dieselgate the direction of zero emissions. This company and some of the biggest scandal and the EV revolution come would truly be a game changer and it investments in electric cars are made in together. Societies do not implode in a big would likely create a snowball effect that China. But the EV race has only just started would make the clean car revolution and in many ways the Model 3 is merely unstoppable – not just in Europe but in the the opening stage. From 2018–19 onwards, With ambitious new whole world. European carmakers will be presenting Of course this wouldn’t mean we could their own electric cars, with high ranges and standards, Europe would sit back. Trucks, planes and ships will need competitive prices. They may well overtake push its mighty car to undergo the same revolution if we want Tesla and the Chinese manufacturers. to win the fight against global warming. Does that mean it will all be smooth industry in the direction of Finally, we need to acknowledge that sailing from here onwards? Unfortunately zero emissions. This would sustainable mobility is about much more not. The advent of electric cars is very much than eliminating emissions. Our current the result of sustained regulatory pressure. truly be a game changer mobility system uses vast amounts of raw

Air pollution limits and, above all, CO2 materials (to build vehicles), space (parking standards for new cars have turned the bang. They fail because they do not adapt and streets) and causes all manner of screws on petrol and diesel cars. California’s to technological and societal change and distress for people who are exposed to it sales target for EVs – in place since the become inert. The old continent is (noise and accidents). 1990s but ramped up in the late 2000s – has still a place of considerable dynamism. This is why the clean car revolution been a particularly effective policy, which is The question is whether this will be needs to be accompanied by a mobility why China is now copying this approach. enough to overcome the vested interests revolution with more liveable cities built on Without these types of regulations, there that seek to hold it back in the clean improved mass transit systems, car sharing is a high chance that carmakers would take vehicles race. and, of course, walking and cycling.

CLIMATE 2020 59

ANSALDO STS Rail technology at the heart of economy and society

Italian railway signalling specialist Ansaldo STS explains why championing the needs of society and the environment is central to the company’s business model

nsaldo STS is active all over the world as a contractor and supplier of turnkey services and solutions, executing large global projects for Apassenger and freight railways and metro lines. In addition to its turnkey projects for large metro lines, Ansaldo STS boasts significant long-term experience in the high-speed sector as a supplier and integrator of all sub- systems: interoperable signalling systems, telecommunications, electric power supply, on-board equipment and integration and electrification, and wayside equipment. In recent years the world has changed dramatically. To be successful as a business, unique vision combines social innovation with it is no longer enough to have a good product. awareness of the impact our work has on the Now, companies need to understand the needs daily lives of millions, through their travel needs of both their customers and of wider society, and the transport of essential goods. offering solutions that create value for both. Ansaldo STS combines experience with Creating innovative products human, financial and technological resources Our commitment continues to be focused on to provide innovative solutions in the design improving people’s everyday lives, by connecting and construction of equipment and systems for the passage of people and goods, business and conventional and high-speed railway lines, mass pleasure. In doing this, we enable the creation transit rail network signalling and automation for of increasingly tangible and feasible social passengers and freight. interaction and opportunities for economic development, through the use of technology security, efficiency, reliability and respect for the Unique vision applied to rail transport. environment with solutions which are moving The more we make sustainable long-term Ansaldo STS considers the social, economic, on daily millions of people and transporting decisions, the better the interaction between logistical, architectural, environmental and goods needed to all; focusing on technological our company, society and the environment structural context of each project it handles, solutions in response to user needs in will be, and this approach is part of our by planning, designing and building signalling increasingly complex and diverse contexts competitive edge. and mass transit systems that provide the best and lifestyles.” Ansaldo STS’s economic sustainability is its possible combination of safety, efficiency and strategic answer to the macroeconomic context return on investment. We invite you to follow us and monitor our and transportation market trends. It is based “We design and implement solutions and sustainable performances through on a business model that develops distinctive components for rail transport and mobility, www.ansaldo-sts.com/en/archive/2016- abilities and skills to boost the company’s creating value for our community,” says Andrew sustainability-report market competitiveness: its core is the growth of Barr, Chief Executive Officer and General human and organisational capital. Manager of Ansaldo STS. “We are committed The Ansaldo STS brand remains strong to creating innovative products that improve the around the world, especially now it is within the quality of life and sustain responsibly the world Hitachi group. We can seize new opportunities in which we live. by sharing the ethics and principles that “We consider sustainability in terms UNA-UK thanks Ansaldo STS for its have always characterised Ansaldo STS. Our of social development, thus contributing to generous support for Climate 2020 60 NEW APPROACHES

The UN’s best allies are in the business sector

To tackle climate change, we need to reinvent our growth model and recognise that the UN and business need each other desperately

By Veronica Lie, Executive Vice President, competent ones, anyway – recognise Development Goals (SDGs) could yield Strategy and Systems, Xyntéo not only that they can’t run successful something like $30 billion return on businesses by screwing people over, but investment (ROI) per year. This is the right he 1992 filmThe Insider recounts the also that commercial success depends on kind of narrative. true story of Jeffrey Wigand, a former being able to align business growth with But there is a major caveat here. While Thead of R&D at tobacco company human growth. appealing to the growth motive is surely the B&W, who tells the media that his colleagues As Peter Diamandis of Singularity path to getting the private sector to throw not only knew that cigarettes were cancerous University says, “the biggest problems its weight behind the Paris agreement, the but were trying actively to make them even on the planet are the biggest market SDGs and the like, we need also to recognise more addictive. Just as his interview was to be opportunities”. Thus Unilever is making that the prevailing growth model is broken. aired, B&W intervened. money by selling household cleaning So while the UN needs to learn how to speak But the truth will out and, today, the products that improve sanitation. more commercially, business needs to be tobacco industry’s deceit is common Mastercard is making money by increasing prepared to redefine the terms of its success. knowledge. The fall-out is now also wielded financial inclusion for the world’s Our current growth model is literally widely as a cautionary tale for companies unbanked. Tesla is making money by eating itself. It is dependent on producing that cling to business models, supply chains driving the technological and commercial and consuming as much stuff as quickly as and products that harm the societies they are innovation that we need in batteries if we possible and rooted in metrics that do not supposed to serve. As Paul Polman, CEO are to build an energy system in which reflect the true value or cost of activities. of Unilever and undoubtedly progressive renewables play a starring role, and not Though received wisdom says that business’s most effective spokesperson, has just a bit part. this system excels at allocating resources said: “If you work at an insurance company Note: they are making money, not giving efficiently, we live in a world in which one that sells premiums you wouldn’t even sell money. For those parties like the UN per cent of the world’s population holds 98 to your wife or mother, how happy would that are seeking to mobilise business as a per cent of the wealth; in which only one per you feel to work there? …It certainly doesn’t partner in achieving social goals, this is a cent of materials remain in use six months create the energy and engagement you need crucial distinction. Businesses need to see after the point of purchase; in which income to be a long-term performing company.” the upside of leading, not just the downside inequality has soared while wages have Black spots remain. Just four years ago, of lagging. They need to be aggressive stagnated. Hershey, a 123-year-old American a criminally flimsy textile factory in Dhaka and creative, not defensive and compliant. company that sells chocolate bars, attributed District, Bangladesh collapsed, killing over Initiatives like the UN Global Compact its poor performance in 2015 not to 1,100 workers. Some oil and gas companies have been vital in building new business competition but to the fact that its customers still continue to shirk responsibility for norms and in getting the private sector could no longer afford its products. warming the climate and thus putting to accept their share of responsibility for Climate change is rightly considered humanity at grave risk. And despite the the common good. But ultimately the full one of the foremost challenges of our time. exposure of cigarettes for what they are, power of business will be unleashed by the But finding a lasting solution depends on tobacco still kills more than seven million push and pull of revenue, profit, demand, diagnosing the root problem. Climate change people every year. cost and returns on investment – in short: is actually a symptom of a much deeper ill – by the levers of growth. the fact that our growth model is not fit for The biggest problems are the biggest Speaking in January in Davos, UN the challenges of the 21st century. markets Secretary-General António Guterres noted So as the UN adjusts its narrative to hit Yet, by and large, business leaders – the that full implementation of the Sustainable the growth motive, it should also shift focus

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 61 © Ollivier Girard/CIFOR

to the fact that we need to reinvent growth. systems-sized issues we face, this is an Planting the edible vine eru in the Cameroon forest. We need growth but of a fundamentally education we all sorely need. Iniatives like this, which protect forests and support their native communities, exemplify the different kind, that drives value creation new symbiosis needed between the UN and business for the many and not the few, across The UN needs business and vice versa generations and not quarters. Without business the UN will not be able to reinvent our growth model. Conversely, customers. The purpose of the UN is, more An education in collaboration without the UN and the work of the wide or less, the same. We often talk about collaboration as if it range of actors in its orbit, business would The UN was born out of war. Though is simply a function of being enlightened arguably be in danger of losing its raison perhaps less easy to see, the challenges we and ‘decent’. But the truth is: collaboration d’être – sufficient numbers of people with are up against today are comparable in is bloody, and it is hard. When times the wherewithal to serve as its customers. severity. In the face of such complexity and get tough, the barrier to exit is very low. So it seems that the defining feature volatility, it’s easy to feel outmanned. But Collaborations that stick require surgically of a successful collaboration – mutual the fact is, we live in an age of abundance, structured partnerships based on mutual indispensability – is in place. with an enormous store of talent, capital and indispensability – where each party has It was once common wisdom that the ideas. Corporate balance sheets of American a unique contribution to make and is purpose of business was to maximise companies alone hold over $2 trillion, and incentivised to sustain that contribution. shareholder value, a notion that Jack at its peak last year, the global bond market Surely no one organisation has learned Welch, the former CEO of General included over $12 trillion in negative yields, more about the hard reality of collaboration Electric, has since dubbed “the dumbest demanding that investors actually pay to own than the UN, with – in the words of idea in the world”. Though Welch’s them. Meanwhile, the planet has never been former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon correction is welcome, the idea has created home to so many educated minds. – its 193 board members who all believe a false and pernicious trade-off between If we can make the alliance between the they are chair. As we move into a world business and society, one which we are UN and business stick, we can unlock this demanding more and more complex forms still trying to unravel. The purpose of abundance, creating a saner economic model of collaboration in order to deal with the business is to solve problems for its that delivers genuine human return.

CLIMATE 2020 62 NEW APPROACHES © Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters © Sergei Tackling apathy and denial

Why do so many people switch off when it comes to climate change? How can psychology help to generate a more constructive response?

By Renee Lertzman, climate, energy and these threats, humans continue to be slow we’ve seen a considerable proliferation of environment consultant in responding to the evidence. initiatives, studies, articles and projects Across governmental, private and dedicated to achieving this. or those working on the front lines of public sectors, this conundrum is often However, underlying many of these climate action, it can be bewildering addressed by focusing on the best means efforts are assumptions about the nature Fwhy more people are not taking action for communicating about climate change, of engaging and mobilising, as well as the to protect themselves and their planet from and how to spark new behaviour in people role of the individual in meeting these the myriad threats posed by climate change. – everything from political engagement challenges. In light of increasing urgency Despite what is currently known about to lifestyle changes. In recent years, and need, we now have the opportunity to

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 63

The Vankor oil field in eastern Siberia, Russia. underlying thinking is that, given how This orientation is exemplified by the Dependence on fossil fuel income often goes hand-in-hand climate and related issues concerning energy recent Project Drawdown – a research with climate denial. In the Pew Research Center’s latest Global Attitudes Survey, Russia scored lowest out of 38 resources have become deeply ideologically project that focuses explicitly on addressing countries in its perception of climate change as a threat charged, using the right climate change through the remarkable kinds of ‘frames’ – phrases, language capacities we have as humans to innovate and words that resonate for specific and solve design problems. This quadrant is carefully consider our approaches – and, communities, sectors and populations – also marked by the use of challenges (such importantly, review emerging research into can gain more traction. as the Fuller Challenge) and competitions – the central role of ‘affect’, emotion and Many research teams and centres around whether among individuals, organisations, social interactions for climate change action. the world focus on framing and messaging states or countries – to spark engagement as key levers for reaching individuals and and innovation. Effective communication sparking greater levels of engagement The fourth quadrant – emotion – remains Our thinking on effective communicating in climate issues. Often surveys are the most unexplored in the climate sectors. with individuals tends to fall into one of used to elicit the ‘magic words’ to use. Yet it presents critical insights that can four dominant orientations: behaviour, This quadrant has been more recently amplify and support all of the others. This framing, systems and emotions. This is also influenced by the interest in storytelling, orientation is grounded in the research referred to as the ‘quadrant of engagement’. recognising how stories and narratives are about how ‘affects’ – such as desire, anxiety, This is a broad map, recognising that in powerful modes for conveying complex and security, anger, hope, inspiration – are what the real world, these approaches often potentially abstract information. drive much of our behaviour. overlap. That said, more often than not, The focus is less on identifying the many of us become mired in one or two of The quadrant of engagement right values, but on the conflicts or these approaches. dilemmas that impede behavioural shifts, First, we have the behaviour orientation. and how these conflicts are often socially This tends to emphasise the power of influenced (identity, social norms, pressures, Ex s perie belonging). This quadrant also reflects behavioural economics in shifting behaviours lief nce Be • C – from ‘nudging’ to using incentives and • o the growing research into how the power es nv lu EM er rewards to stimulate desired actions, and a G sa of conversation – whether in-person V O t • IN io fees and penalties to punish undesirable g T n conversations in groups, or taking in I •

g M O P ones. This way of thinking about a a conversational approaches to s A r s N t e i engaging individuals has become R c campaign strategies and education i M S p

F a deeply entrenched in many t – can accelerate both behaviour How do we frame How are we i o

organisations. Yet research shows the message? emotionally engaged? change and overall engagement that individual behaviours are in the issues (take Carbon

How do we get How do we design a largely shaped by social contexts and Conversations, for example).

B x to do y? better world/solution? underlying (largely unconscious)

L E e e c v emotional drivers. n From motivation to empowerment e e r H i s S il One example of how behavioural • s All of these orientations offer D A e science has taken hold of climate r M R critical insights into how we can

iv V • e E te communications has been the prevalence rs I a effectively communicate and engage • O T v M no of community-based social marketing o U S n with populations at scale in addressing ti Y • I va R S ge (CBSM), a protocol for sparking behaviour tors llen climate change issues. However, there are a Cha change through the use of teams, champions few fundamental challenges that we need to and ambassadors. In many ways, CBSM has address, as well as some gaps in our thinking become a stand-in for most approaches for to date. behaviour change. When we speak about The third quadrant – systems – First, we need to revise an underlying drivers, levers and motivation, we know we concentrates on systems-level change assumption that we need to motivate are usually in this quadrant, referencing and, in particular, on solutions. This people to take action on climate change. behavioural economics, language and orientation is strongly influenced by the This presumes there is a fundamental lack frameworks. design sciences sectors, notably emerging of care, concern or motivation that leads Next, we have a focus on framing. This from the work of Paul Hawken, who in people to remain disengaged and inactive. approach is epitomised by using values- the early 1990s in The Ecology of Commerce This assumption directly conflicts with the based framing to convey and persuade noted that sustainability is fundamentally deeply systemic nature of our challenges. people to take climate action. The a design problem. It also presumes that people will act on

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all of their most deeply held values, which is the increased focus on what it means to deny, repress or confabulate – anything to may include wellbeing, safety, security and engage people. The challenge becomes less preserve the status quo.” protection of nature. This is simply not about how to motivate people to change, Although he wasn’t talking about climate the case. and more on how we can engage people change, he very well could have been. The In addition, we need to take heed of the to experience themselves as participants, question is how we can navigate these lack of rationality when it comes to our stakeholders and co-creators of their future. defence mechanisms that seem to work behaviours. Issues represented by climate – Taking into account the extensive research against our best efforts. Do we focus on whether they concern food, transportation, into the power of intrinsic motivation, we more positive stories and solutions, making energy resources, industry or political action can frame engaging with climate change engagement local and doable? – can bring up tremendous conflicts for issues in terms of empowerment, purpose, The answer is yes – and more. People people, particularly between their values, meaning and mattering. We can design need to know what they can do to make a aspirations and desires. our communications efforts in terms meaningful difference, otherwise they will It is no longer as simple as raising of invitation and inclusion, rather than tune out and avoid engaging, out of self- awareness about the issues and expecting exhorting people to take steps to change protection. Powerlessness and helplessness people to act accordingly. For example, in their behaviour. are difficult things for people to experience. writing about the meat paradox, researchers That said, the most effective way to Bastian and Loughnan discuss how The science of engagement help motivate people is to acknowledge connecting the act of eating meat with harm We know more now than we ever have the extent to which something may seem to animals can trigger intense cognitive about the complexities and nuances of how overwhelming, insurmountable or hard dissonance. As a result, people will not humans learn new information – especially to imagine. Our ability to empathise only resist such awareness-raising, but will when that information stirs up confusion, a and connect with people is of utmost actually increase their consumption of meat sense of being overwhelmed, powerlessness, importance. All of the champions, as a way of reducing this dissonance. conflict or unwanted emotions. ambassadors, social pledges and social media campaigns will never be sufficient unless we allow people to respond and react to the Understanding how humans manage psychological basic recognition of the current situation facing everyone on the planet. Paradoxically, conflicts such as guilt, ambivalence, shame, anxiety and the most effective way for doing so is by uncertainty has yet to fully enter into our work on engaging having conversations. The ability to reflect, think aloud and share stories is how we as with people effectively about climate change humans are wired to learn, change and grow – not as individuals, but as communities.

Understanding how humans manage As Daniel Goleman has written: “The The importance of empathy psychological conflicts such as guilt, brain’s basic design offers a prototype of As our work addressing climate change ambivalence, shame, anxiety and uncertainty how we handle pain of all sorts, including evolves to meet the pressing need for has yet to fully enter into our work on psychological distress and social anxieties.” large-scale engagement, we would all be communicating and engaging with people Research across neuroscience, clinical well served by tapping into the research effectively about climate change. Rather, psychology and public health offers and insights into how our minds work. there is a tendency to focus on raising profound insights for climate change efforts This means going beyond a focus solely on awareness of the problems, or an exclusive – specifically about how to address topics behaviour, values, messaging and framing, focus on the solutions. that may evoke difficult feelings. It is not a solutions and storytelling. It requires There is a notion that if we can stimulate question about whether to be negative or building capacities for engagement that enough concern and fear, and then swiftly positive, but what our work looks like if we take into account the central role of ‘affect’ introduce solutions, we can get people to take on board that climate change threats – how these issues make us feel, and how take action more quickly. However, this is are arguably traumatic. If we apply what overwhelming they can be for many people. not necessarily the case. Often, people need is known about how our minds process Pushing solutions is itself not the only to reflect and process what this means for trauma, there are important implications for solution. Helping people see themselves as them, and to be assured that taking action the ways we communicate. empowered actors in changing our world, will not threaten their fundamental sense of As neuroscientist VS Ramachandran framing the issue as an opportunity not a security and identity. wrote in the late 1990s: “If confronted with burden, is where we can find our greatest One of the most promising developments new information that doesn’t fit the model, headwind. Empathy is a critical ingredient when it comes to empowering individuals [our mind] relies on defence mechanisms to in this mix, if we are to be effective.

CLIMATE 2020 NEW APPROACHES 65 © LOOK Die Bildagentur der Fotografen GmbH/Alamy Stock Photo Stock GmbH/Alamy der Fotografen Die Bildagentur © LOOK Holding emitters to account

What legal recourse can be brought to bear on those countries or organisations that flout the Paris Agreement?

By Richard Lord QC, Brick Court Chambers every natural and legal person on the planet The Whanganui river, New Zealand has been granted is an emitter? ‘legal personality’ with the same legal rights to protection as a human being n a civilised society, legal liability is one This question becomes easier to answer of the touchstones of when someone following the Paris Agreement. Despite the Ishould be held to account. Greenhouse lack of quantitative quotas at national level, gas (GHG) emissions are to some extent the agreement sets the benchmark by global The fact that it is imposed collectively, both natural and inevitable, at least for the consensus in terms of achieving a planetary however, means there is no answer to those foreseeable future. Who are the emitters temperature rise of “well below” 2°C, with whose activities are inconsistent with this who should be held to account, given that efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. benchmark.

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The most obvious focus is on large all foundering on issues such as standing or In other states, a constitutional right to corporate actors who might be said to justiciability or causation. While it is not a healthy environment, or similar rights, be directly or indirectly responsible for inconceivable that such actions will in future may ground a challenge to a government emissions – whether as producers or succeed, the focus has switched to other that is not doing enough to limit emissions. consumers of fossil fuels or as ‘facilitators’ of approaches. Three broad categories of legal Such an approach may also be facilitated by their use. Research on the so-called ‘carbon action are outlined below: (a) those against the granting in some jurisdictions of ‘legal majors’ shows that a relatively small number states; (b) those against corporations; and (c) personality’, and the accompanying right of corporate groups are ‘responsible’ for a those against emission-intensive projects. to bring actions, to traditionally impersonal relatively high share of emissions. But all objects or concepts such as rivers (as has corporations carry on business in one or States happened in New Zealand) or ‘nature’ (as in more states, and in a defined industry sector. As observed above, Paris provides Bolivia and elsewhere). So accountability needs to be considered benchmarks but little scope for direct The recognition that the effects of also at a national and sectoral level. legal remedy for breach of its provisions. climate change engage numerous national What might be termed climate change Importantly, however, it does not purport and international human rights, such as law has evolved rapidly in recent years. to be an exclusive or exhaustive code that those to life, livelihood and health, provides Some of it, concerned with adaptation (or precludes other legal actions. A very notable a further legal route for holding states that the lack of it), is outside the scope of this illustration of the scope for action comes fail to take action to account. article. What remains for consideration is in the Dutch decision (pre-Paris and still Of great current interest is the invocation fascinating and challenging in its diversity. subject to appeal) in Urgenda Foundation in a climate change context of an ancient There is only a small body of law that might v The Netherlands in June 2015. A group doctrine of public trust, whereby the state holds, and is bound to manage and protect, natural resources (including the atmosphere) It would be wrong to suggest litigation is an easy for public benefit. The ‘Our Children’s Trust’ litigation in the US (Juliana v United solution to climate change or a good substitute States of America) has survived attempts to for effective international regulation strike it out as legally unsustainable, and a trial date has been set for 2018. Moreover, a number of fossil fuel trade properly be termed climate change law in of concerned citizens obtained an order organisations that initially pressed hard to be the strict sense. But as the effect of climate that, based on a science-driven assessment joined as parties have now withdrawn from change is cross-cutting, so the means of of necessary action, the Dutch government the case, apparently fearing the consequences holding to account reflect both the diversity had to ensure emissions were 25 per cent of the disclosure process. The case is of of adverse effects and the variety of legal below a 1990 baseline, based on a duty interest for many reasons, including its use doctrines relied upon. of the state to protect its citizens from of the concept of intergenerational equity, so One unique feature of climate change imminent danger. that action today is taken for the benefit of for lawyers (apart from its enormity) is Many of the obstacles thought by more future generations. its true globalisation. Unlike traditional conservative lawyers to preclude such environmental issues where the effect of a ruling were swept aside by the court, Corporations an action is felt in the locality where including the argument that the country Close attention has been focused not only it occurs, problems on the coasts of only accounted for a very small fraction on the actual activities of the fossil fuel Bangladesh or in the glaciers of the Andes (about 0.5 per cent) of global emissions. A industry but on its lobbying and statements are attributable to the sum total of emissions similar if less dramatic result was achieved in on the validity/existence or otherwise, and globally over past years. the case of Leghari v Republic of Pakistan. effects of, anthropogenic climate change. What, therefore, are the legal bases on In addition, public law can be used to One example is the current battle in the which emitters may be held to account? compel public bodies to comply with the US between ExxonMobil and various state A few years ago, a number of lawsuits law. Thus, where there are legal obligations attorney generals seeking information for were brought, mainly in the US, seeking in relation to reducing emissions (as with an investigation into whether Exxon misled damage or injunctive relief against fossil fuel the UK Climate Change Act 2008), the investors, as well as civil law claims for companies on the basis that their actions government will be amenable to challenge conspiracy or fraud. caused events (sea-level rise or extreme if it fails to abide by those obligations. Although of less dramatic significance, weather events) that damaged the claimants’ Where GHGs are classified in law as claims for false advertising (about the property. None of these claims, largely based a pollutant, this may engage national environmental friendliness of products) may on common law tort actions, has succeeded, environmental laws. also attract civil or regulatory liability.

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While many human rights laws are processes to externalise and lower costs will new legal challenges thrown up by it. It of direct relevance only to states, in fall foul of competition and trade laws. would be wrong to suggest litigation is the Philippines a petition has asked an easy solution to climate change or a its Commission on Human Rights to Projects good substitute for effective international investigate the allegations that actions of Much action is directed at stopping specific regulation. carbon majors have caused human rights high-emission projects, especially when no It would be equally wrong to ignore breaches. Furthermore, the laws of some proper environmental impact assessment the counterbalancing litigation brought countries (possibly including South Africa, or consultation is involved. This may be by by (in particular) the fossil fuel industry Brazil, India and Mexico) allow so-called direct challenge to coal mines, power plants to challenge regulation at national or horizontal actions against private actors (as in a South African decision in March this local level. responsible for human rights breaches. year) and so on. Or it can be by seeking to But in this author’s view, the direction Other tools have also been used to hold prohibit external agencies from financing of travel is clear, and the courts are corporations to account, specifically by such projects (as in a submission by increasingly willing to reflect the global reference to their duties to report properly, Greenpeace to Canadian security regulators consensus on the need for action on climate including to regulators and shareholders, to halt the fundraising for a pipeline in May change. climate risks of various types. Particularly this year). vulnerable are those whose business models There is no doubt that just as the The People’s Climate March in Amsterdam, the are inconsistent with the Paris targets. physical climate is changing, so is the legal Netherlands. In 2015, Urgenda Foundation won a court ruling compelling the Dutch government to adopt more In addition, it is quite possible that climate. As the world adapts to climate ambitious climate policies on the grounds that the businesses that use carbon-intensive change so the courts are adapting to the government had a duty to protect its citizens © Romy Arroyo Fernandez/NurPhoto via Getty Images Images via Getty Fernandez/NurPhoto Arroyo © Romy

CLIMATE 2020 68 NEW CHALLENGES © John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images © John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Political shifts

Many argue that non-state actors, not governments, will be the real drivers of climate action this century. How do you monitor, coordinate and maximise the potential of the diverse coalitions that now lead the fight against climate change?

By Paula Caballero, Global Director, Climate alignments and the negotiations themselves. exceeded expectations. But one core Program, World Resources Institute Today, its implementation is being spurred reason for the extraordinary dynamism and by the increasing involvement of the private resilience of the Paris Agreement since its he unprecedented momentum sector and civil society in advancing climate adoption is that it resulted from an inclusive and commitment that the Paris action. Indeed, for multilateralism to be fit process that has generated unequalled and TAgreement has set in motion to for purpose in our globalised and connected deep ownership. tackle climate change reflects the power of world, it must actively engage many layers In December 2015, the world converged multilateralism, channeling the interests of of government and society. in the French capital. Far-ranging coalitions a broad range of actors. The Agreement was Powerful leadership by key countries came together – not just of new groupings shaped by coalitions that emerged outside was decisive in catapulting the negotiations of governments, but also of business, of both the confines of traditional political forward to an outcome in Paris that far finance, civil society, philanthropists and

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French President Emmanuel Macron, German “The private sector holds the key to [this] Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Donald low-carbon future, with the Paris deal Trump at the G20 meeting in Hamburg. Tensions and leadership failures among world leaders has shifted the effectively acting as a global business plan focus of climate action to non-state actors and coalitions for decarbonisation.” Her vision was shared by then-Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon, who hosted the UN academic sectors. In Paris, climate change Climate Summit in New York in 2014. It became everyone’s business. Take, for was a pivotal moment that further served to Also in this section example, Mission Innovation. This new pull the global dialogue on climate change partnership brings together both developed out of the narrow confines of conference and developing countries, as well as private negotiations by creating a platform for sector and business leadership, and has engagement by business and finance leaders, Democratic flaws 71 founded clear and tangible commitments multilateral development banks, local to double clean energy research and authorities and civil society. Institutional development investment over five years. It investors and mayors announced coalitions, Fragile cities 73 is supported by the Breakthrough Energy while actors from various sides came Coalition, an initiative of high-powered together around carbon pricing and Population growth 76 investors and philanthropists committed to deforestation, to name but two issues. driving innovation. Most importantly, this momentum has Vested interests 78 been maintained. In late June 2017, for Maintaining momentum example, the industry-led Task Force on The foundations for this joint ownership of Climate-related Financial Disclosures the climate crisis were laid throughout the recognised the systemic nature of climate tenure of the former Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Christiana Figueres. New configurations From the outset, she reached out to diverse constituencies, including in the of power and action private and finance sectors, academia and are emerging that science, and faith groups. She opened the door to the private sector at global climate transcend the confines summits, both encouraging and recognising of national government their participation. Figueres sought to catalyse the relationship between business and government because she understood risks, and the fact that the protection that the private sector both delivers on of investments and of the planet is climate action and can demand enhanced synchronous. Moreover, the task force support and clear market signals from recommended that companies consider how governments. different climate scenarios will impact on Within the UNFCCC, efforts to drive their businesses, including the 2°C target set and maintain that momentum have been in Paris. There is a growing expectation that reflected in the Lima-Paris Action Agenda the financial sector will align investment in 2014, the Global Climate Action Agenda decisions with the long-term objective of in 2015 and the Marrakech Partnership the Paris Agreement. for Global Climate Action in 2016. These Indeed, as the understanding of the initiatives, launched by successive UN magnitude of the systemic risk posed by climate conference hosts to engage “state climate change is acknowledged across and non-state” actors, seek to “boost societies and economies, new configurations cooperative action between governments, of power and action are emerging that cities, business, investors and citizens to transcend the confines of national cut emissions rapidly and help vulnerable government action. The decision by the nations adapt to climate impacts”. As Trump administration to withdraw from Figueres told the Nikkei-Asian Review: the Paris Agreement provoked remarkable

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reactions at all levels. A group representing a broad cross-section of American society that now includes over 2,200 governors, mayors, businesses, investors and Climate change is perceived globally as one of the leading universities, signed up to the ‘We Are Still threats to national security In’ initiative. The movement intends to ensure that “the US remains a global leader in reducing carbon emissions”. The Islamic militant 62% Just a few weeks later, Governor Jerry group known as ISIL Brown of California announced he would host a global climate summit in Global climate change 61% 2018 and said to the New York Times that President Trump “doesn’t speak for the Cyber attacks from 51% rest of America” in pulling out of the Paris other countries Agreement. The condition of the 51% Tracking progress global economy However, there are complex issues Large number of refugees around the assessment and aggregation leaving countries such as 39% of the mitigation efforts of non-state and Iraq and Syria subnational actors. In 2014 the Peruvian US power and influence 35% presidency launched the NAZCA portal, which enables these actors to register their Russia’s power 31% climate efforts and commitments, thus and influence providing visibility and recognition. But China’s power these commitments are not quantified. 31% Different users employ different protocols and influence and standards, which make aggregation daunting. Data collection, management and dissemination efforts remain uncoordinated. There are many ongoing efforts to track, Note: Figures represent global medians across 38 countries. ISIL not asked in Turkey and power and influence of country not asked in own country. aggregate and quantify the contribution of these actors that can be built on, and Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q17a-h. Pew Research Center progressively improved to help develop a set of principles and common approaches for data collection and assessment efforts. Events in 2018, which is shaping up to be a pivotal year for climate change, are driving efforts by the analytical community to lay UNFCCC, the Facilitative Dialogue – a to government action. Increasingly, the basis for a more rigorous and complete key stocktaking exercise – will be held however, the UNFCCC will need to understanding of the contributions of these while the Paris Agreement ‘rulebook’ is continue to evolve towards processes that actors to closing the emissions gap. slated for approval. The rulebook, which are not based exclusively on state-centric Tracking the progress of climate change will measure, account for and review global models but also acknowledge action led by action across constituencies and levels – climate action, is an important element in much broader cohorts of stakeholders. to show progress to date, unlock further increasing transparency. Going forward, greater convergence action, and forge coalitions to fast-track Nonetheless, many Parties to the needs to be facilitated between formal implementation – is a central objective. In UNFCCC are highly sensitive to non-state negotiating spheres and drivers of the addition to the California Global Climate actor participation and activity in formal real economy, where businesses and Action Summit, the Intergovernmental processes, and are reluctant to enable financial investors, mayors and subnational Panel on Climate Change will produce a more substantive engagement. Efforts authorities, civil society and scientists special report on the impacts of a global related to these non-state actor initiatives hold sway. temperature rise of 1.5°C above pre- have therefore been framed in terms of As Paris made abundantly clear, today industrial levels. Meanwhile, under the collaboration that supports and contributes climate change is everyone’s business.

CLIMATE 2020 NEW CHALLENGES 71 © Mark Lyons/Getty Images © Mark Lyons/Getty The long view

For centuries, humans have championed the democratic political system. But can it facilitate the radical change needed to stop the potentially annihilating effects of climate change?

By AC Grayling, Master of the New College is, until Donald Trump said he intended Donald Trump in Charleston, West Virginia. In the of the Humanities, London, and its Professor to withdraw the US, the biggest climate fallout of the financial crisis, populist leaders in most democratic countries have espoused cheap fossil-fuel of Philosophy polluter in history, from the agreement. energy as a remedy to falling living standards The Paris Agreement and President lthough individual action to protect Trump’s decision illustrate the two ends the environment – consuming less, of the spectrum of effort and concern. and in the early 12th century BCE when Arecycling more, reducing one’s Our planet cannot be protected from a entire civilisations in the Mediterranean and carbon footprint – might be a contribution warming atmosphere – with melting ice Near East collapsed in rapid succession into if enough people did it, the battle to caps, rising sea levels, droughts, floods, centuries of dark ages. Only this time – today, minimise human-induced climate change famines and migrations of desperate in our present world, with a global population has to be a worldwide endeavour among populations – without vigorous joint effort of over seven billion that is growing ever cooperating states. The outcome of the by the world’s states. faster – any such catastrophe will be many 2015 UN Climate Change Conference was It is thought that climate catastrophes orders of magnitude greater. one of the most optimistic and encouraging caused turmoil in the past – perhaps at the That is the situation that makes concerted steps hitherto achieved in that battle – that beginning of the fourth millennium BCE, international effort imperative. At the other

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end of the spectrum, President Trump’s the planet is that their citizens should in the climate emergency we are facing. announcement illustrates the fragility of be informed and thoughtful, and willing Peace, stability, human rights, the welfare of international cooperation. It takes just one participants in the required sacrifices. children – these will all collapse before the large rogue elephant in the herd to negate Given the realities, say cynics, is not this a survival issue becomes the only one left. the endeavour. Any one of the US, China, vain hope? Now, not one of us should or would, India and the EU could undermine the Efforts to inform are manifold, but I hope, seek to overturn democracy. But sacrifice and determination demanded by they are undermined by deniers and every one of us should, I hope, bend our the Paris Agreement. sceptics, among them Mr Trump. Efforts thoughts vigorously to the problem of how It is a desperately sad move by any one to encourage thoughtfulness and sacrifice to make the saving of our planet consistent large polluting economy if it refuses to among the people meet with the age-old with democracy. For surely, democracy and cooperate. Such a decision condemns – reluctance on the part of too many people survival do not have to be in conflict. There actually condemns, not merely threatens to to attempt either. have to be ways in which democracies can condemn – hundreds of millions of people Short-termism, self-interest, lack of be full, compassionate, sensible partners to suffering, and almost certainly the whole real understanding, a head-in-the-sand with each other – indeed with everyone, planet to new dark ages. attitude and several kinds of laziness and no matter what the political system – in Democracy is, as has been well said, the self-indulgence make us humans our own rescuing the planet from the peril that our least bad of a lot of bad systems. But it pays worst enemies: and in a democracy we all historical self-indulgence and exploitation a high price for the noble ideal of locating feel entitled to be all these things as a right. have already placed it in. To ensure that the aims of the Paris Agreement are met, there therefore If the world’s people can be mobilised, then the has to be another effort alongside the drive for far greater sustainability in short-termism and self-interest of the political industrial-commercial activity. This is an classes in democracies will be addressed overwhelming, unceasing drive to educate and re-educate every single individual on the planet about climate change. political authority in the consent of the There is nothing new in this. Plato two and The real and imminent dangers to lives people. Tyrants can make and act on quick a half millennia ago criticised democracy and societies have to be driven home. decisions. Democracies debate and disagree, precisely because of this. But this is now a People have themselves to become the and move slowly. Tyrannies are efficient to major life-threatening dilemma for our time. goads driving politicians and governments the point of mercilessness. Democracies are to act. If the world’s people can be inefficient to the point of ineffectiveness Driving home the dangers mobilised, then the short-termism and at times. The very nature of the political The international order is effectively an self-interest of the political classes in process in democracies means that leaders anarchy if any of its members – sovereign democracies will be addressed. Measures are reluctant to burden the populace with states – refuse to play ball with the rest, or will be taken that people can understand are restrictions and sacrifices, lest they are voted refuse to adhere to agreements previously genuinely in their own real interests, as well out of office. made. What is the sanction against, say, as the interests of their fellows in the human But saving the planet requires restrictions the US if indeed it does withdraw from the story around the world. and sacrifices. Leaders are reluctant Paris Agreement? The international order is Many are cynical about the potential of to burden business with extra costs on itself a loose form of democracy, and suffers education to achieve anything like what is emissions and other good environmental the same deficits. required here. Time and again dreamers practices, lest they damage the economy, This fact illustrates where the nub of the and idealists have launched themselves and again in consequence lose office. problem lies: a lack of a sense of binding into education to better the world. But in Tyrants have no such anxieties: they worry obligation to act for the benefit of others. the face of how things are in both national only about the assassin or eventual rebellion. Short-termism and self-interest are endemic and international politics, other than Democracy, accordingly, is not a natural weaknesses both of democracies and those climate-induced civilisational collapse ally of the tough measures required to who live in them. And these are precisely itself, education is the only thing that has a combat climate change. And yet populations the things that have already wrought so hope of changing minds. It is all we have. of democracies will be the first to punish much damage to the world’s climate, and But with massive effort we can make a their political leaders when the disastrous threaten the people of the world with ever- difference, and perhaps enough of one to effects of climate change start hitting home. increasing danger. save our lives. We have to teach ourselves What is required for democracies to Human survival is of course not the only, into freedom from this danger: nothing less become fully engaged in the fight to save though it is the most obvious, point at issue can or will do.

CLIMATE 2020 NEW CHALLENGES 73 © Goh Chai Hin/AFP/Getty Images Hin/AFP/Getty © Goh Chai The fragility of cities

As climate change drives more people from rural to urban settings, how will already fragile cities cope? What must be done to ensure that all cities are safe, sustainable places to live?

By Janani Vivekananda, Senior Project how climate change adaptation and urban Residents in a slum on the banks of the Ciliwung Manager, adelphi violence intersect and interact. river in Jakarta, Indonesia. The task of creating a safe living environment is compounded by the fact that Why are the potential connections the city is sinking, through a combination of subsidence hile research on climate between climate change adaptation and and sea-level rises change and urban violence are urban violence important to understand? Windependently strong, few efforts First, to ensure that adaptation efforts do have been made to understand the linkages not inadvertently increase the risk of urban the risk. This article identifies some of the between them. To date, there is little violence. And second, where possible, so gaps in the knowledge base and potential research or analysis on whether, where and that these efforts can be designed to reduce entry points for future research and action.

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Why are cities so special when it comes to climate and fragility risks? From a climate perspective, the concentration of populations, infrastructure, economic activity and services means that the social, economic and political impacts of climate change in cities are exacerbated. From a conflict perspective, cities put a spotlight on inequality through the sheer proximity of rich and poor – often with the most wealthy and poorest living side by side. OECD figures show that inequalities have increased in 75 per cent of the world’s cities in the past 20 years.

An array of challenges In a fragile context where inequality, poverty and marginalisation are drivers of grievance and conflict, climate impacts can make these inequalities even more apparent, fuelling grievances further. Often, it is the poorest who live in the most exposed areas, such as flood plains. In Karachi, floods in 2011 had a devastating impact on inhabitants of the city – but not all of them. Local business leaders received help to safeguard their assets through provision of sandbags. The inhabitants of slums, however, had no such assistance. Urban populations are typically highly mobile and heterogeneous. These two traits characterise both urban resilience and vulnerability. City populations are cosmopolitan, perhaps more ethnically or religiously tolerant (often bringing ●● Weak governance: Most urbanisation cartels and terrorist organisations) – step knowledge of other contexts), and able to occurs in lower-income countries, many into the void. adapt and cope with shocks. of which are classified as ‘fragile states’. But urban living also means that ethnic While, in principle, cities can absorb ●● Informality (of shelter, communities, differences are experienced at close range, new entrants and provide them with economies): Inhabitants of informal with various, often hostile, ethnic groups employment, this is harder to ensure in settlements are often particularly exposed living side by side. This can raise the risk of fragile states where governance capacity is to climate impacts. Without adequate violence – such as that seen in the Nairobi already weak or strained. Even relatively governance of in-migration to cities, slums during the 2007-08 election and robust governments may struggle to the UN Department of Economic and again, though to a lesser degree, in August provide jobs, housing and services to Social Affairs predicts that the number 2017. Governing transient populations meet the needs of their rapidly growing of people living in slums will triple that are frequently on the move presents urban populations. Governments that by 2050. Informal settlements, and an array of challenges – from tax collection were designed to rule over cities of a informal economies that often thrive and documentation to ensuring the certain size may be overwhelmed by within them, can indeed be a source sustainability of long-term interventions in-migration. Where the government of resilience through the strong social such as programmes to enhance livelihoods. is absent or incompetent, local groups capital and cohesion present within these Three issues are of particular significance: – from the benign (non-governmental communities. But the informal nature of weak governance; informal settlements and organisations, labour unions, religious those economies does not provide much economies; and migration. groups) to the malignant (organised crime in the way of governance, stability or

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Women carry firewood at a makeshift camp on the to cities by climate change and fragility, outskirts of Baidoa, Somalia. Catastrophic drought in we need to realise that climate change and Somalia has displaced nearly a million in recent months conflict prevention activities do not operate in a vacuum in cities such as Karachi, A more nuanced understanding of Nairobi or Kabul. migration strategies is required to foster Climate change and peace-building need positive migration in the face of climate to take account of city dynamics. Similarly, fragility risks. urban planning and development need to be ‘climate and conflict sensitive’. That is to Improving cities’ resilience say, efforts to make cities resilient must take Facing these challenges requires innovations into account cities’ complex dynamics. in governance. At the moment, the This means understanding how potential international system is set up to act at the conflicts arise in urban settings, the political level of nation states. Meanwhile, city economy, as well as knowing who holds leaders are forging networks within and power when land and resource rights are across international boundaries to address not clearly defined. It also means asking the shared problems, including climate change. right questions. How will urban planning But national governments and interventions such as a slum-upgrading multilateral agencies such as the UN system programme affect social dynamics and social are not organised to work with city-level cohesion? What can actually build resilience? governance mechanisms. Their continued To answer these, the development focus on nation states limits the scope for community working to build resilient cities devolved decision-making and consultative need only look to the peace-building and engagement at the city level. climate-adaptation sphere for existing

The development community working to build resilient cities need only look to the peace-building and climate-adaptation sphere for existing tools to understand conflict and climate vulnerability © Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty Images Karumba/AFP/Getty © Tony

predictability. Addressing the particular We are also in an unprecedented era tools to understand conflict and climate vulnerabilities and harnessing the of global frameworks that offer real vulnerability. dimensions of resilience of slum/shack opportunities to promote resilience. There was consensus at the 2016 World dwellers is thus of particular importance However, the Sustainable Development Humanitarian Summit on the need for in ensuring stability. Goals (SDGs), the New Urban Agenda greater localisation. The gaps in the and the UN Peacebuilding Commission’s global frameworks illustrate that global ●● Migration is another important trend Sustaining Peace Agenda all have gaps when and national development efforts must be that converges in cities. It overlaps it comes to addressing this nexus of climate transposed to the urban scale. This will with other pressures such as inequality change, cities and fragility. require a transformation of the way in which and climate change in complex ways. The SDGs include an urban goal (SDG the UN system and many donor agencies For example, climate change may 11) and a peace and security goal (SDG operate – for example recognising the role contribute to rural–urban migration. 16), while the New Urban Agenda makes of urban authorities (which remain absent Migration can offer opportunities for reference to “conflict and post-conflict in many agreements) and building local fostering resilience, for example through contexts”. But the city is absent from the urban capacity. remittances. But it can also pose a risk Sustaining Peace Agenda, and the New It will also need greater contextual to migrants in urban settings since a Urban Agenda provides no substantive knowledge of city actors – mayors, urban disproportionate number of slum/shack guide on how to address urban violence and dwellers, municipalities and urban conflict dwellers are migrants, and are therefore conflict. To ensure that policy responses dynamics – as well as engaging them in the exposed to greater climate vulnerability. genuinely address the complex risks posed implementation of global processes.

CLIMATE 2020 76 NEW CHALLENGES

Population and climate change

What is the relationship between population growth and human-made climate change? Must we necessarily limit the former to fix the latter?

By Natalia Kanem, Acting Executive Director, The Programme of Action of the change, or to ignore population growth United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) International Conference on Population entirely, since historically it has been a and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo highly politicised issue. These contradictory nderstanding the relationship in 1994, shifted the prevailing population approaches are actually driven by the same between population and climate discourse away from a focus on numbers basic misconception about the links between Uchange is crucial to the design and population targets. Instead, it moved population and climate change. of policies that protect people’s rights, the conversation towards actions to This misconception is that more people particularly their reproductive choices, uphold universal principles of human automatically equals more emissions. while preserving the planet. Yet, the social, rights and freedom of choice, particularly From a climate change or natural resource economic and environmental consequences for women and girls to exercise decisions perspective, there is a certain intuitive logic of population growth have been the subject over their own bodies. to it. More people is usually assumed to mean of strong opinions, including in popular more eating and drinking, more driving media, and a source of much controversy, Basic misconceptions or more energy use – all of which under conjecture and confusion over the years. When thinking about the greenhouse our current model cause major emissions Many fears about population growth are gas (GHG) emissions that drive climate of GHGs. Yet emissions are not equally not borne out by the evidence, and the change, it is far too common to either distributed across the world’s population, any relationship between population growth and blame population growth and claim it more than the consumption of food or cars, climate change is no exception. as the most important driver of climate or the use of air conditioning.

Figure 1: Fertility and per capita emissions

8.00

Niger 7.00

High income 6.00 High middle income Angola Low middle income 5.00 Equitorial Guinea Low income 4.00

India 3.00 United Kingdom Total Fertility Rate, 2015-2020 2.00 Qatar 1.00 Brazil China United States

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Per Capita Emissions, 2013

Source: Total fertility rate from UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision Per capita emissions from World Bank Open Data, data.worldbank.org

CLIMATE 2020 NEW CHALLENGES 77

Figure 1 shows GHG emissions per capita by total fertility rate – the number of children Let’s get the facts right born per woman over the course of their lives – a key factor in population growth. The global rate of population growth is rapidly decelerating – from 2.05 per cent per High per capita emissions, occurring year in the period 1965–70 to 1.52 per cent in 1990–95 and 1.09 per cent in 2015–20. in the wealthiest countries, correlate with Nearly half of the projected population growth between now and 2100 will not be the lowest levels of fertility. The poorest driven by high fertility. Instead it will be fuelled by ‘population momentum’, or large countries generate the lowest per capita numbers of women of reproductive age – from high fertility in the past – having children. emissions – many close to zero. Only 38 countries worldwide have total fertility rates higher than four children per While counter-intuitive to some, the woman, which drive the fastest rates of population growth. Together, these countries poorest countries that have the highest constitute only 13 per cent of the world’s population. fertility rates and the fastest rates of Many people already want smaller families but struggle to achieve that aim. About population growth also make the least 214 million women in developing regions who want to avoid pregnancy do not have contribution to GHG-generating access to modern methods of contraception. phenomena. So, at present, a linear relationship between population growth and emissions cannot be established or defended. while limiting emissions. There have been growth in the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, income is the best proxy for dramatic emissions reductions in some In the Programme, the world’s emissions creation. Presently, only about European countries and (for a period) in governments achieved consensus that 28 per cent of the people in the world make the United States, and a decline in intensity widespread promotion of reproductive more than $10 per day, the income level at (or the emissions cost of GDP growth) in health and rights and women’s which consumption begins to significantly China and other emerging economies. empowerment offer a more effective means contribute to climate change emissions. Figure 1 shows wide variations in the to advance development than a focus on The alarming reality is that it has not emissions per capita among high and population control. With better health, taken very many high emitters to put the middle-income countries. This suggests education and opportunity, most people planet in significant danger. The claim that, even now, we are not locked into a choose smaller families – and population that population growth, especially in the scenario in which growing wealth demands growth rates decline. poorest countries, is a primary driver of high emissions. The 20-year review of the Programme, climate change must be treated with major completed in 2014, affirmed this truth. scepticism. And it should be noted that it Reasons for optimism Investments promoting the realisation of is people living in the poorest countries, As technology continues to improve, universal access to sexual and reproductive who have contributed the least to its options for more sustainable, less carbon- health and reproductive rights – including occurrence, who will likely feel its impact dependent development will expand, the education of women and girls, and a most intensely. allowing all countries and people the major expansion in sexual and reproductive opportunity to develop while preventing health education, information and health Making better choices climate change. services and more – result in people The world is focused on helping the This is absolutely necessary. The data choosing smaller families, and fertility poorest countries and their populations on population and emissions show that continues to decline. emerge from poverty, including through the slowing population growth, even rapidly, The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable adoption of the Sustainable Development is not a shortcut to preventing climate Development recognises the importance Goals with the ambition of ending extreme change. Indeed, it will have little or no of this approach to population, including poverty by 2030. effect if we cannot transition away from universal access to sexual and reproductive Under our current model of economic fossil fuels and other drivers of climate health and reproductive rights. The time growth, poverty reduction will bring an change and towards renewable and has come to redouble our efforts to ensure increase in emissions. And then – indeed – sustainable modes of living. these achievements. the population of the poorest countries will It is critical that we get smart about Through implementing the Paris become increasingly important to emissions the relationship between population and Agreement, which represents a and to climate change. So, in the long term, climate change to make the best policy generational awakening to tackle the population growth is certainly important to choices and avoid the pitfalls of the past. challenge of climate change, we now have climate change. The Programme of Action of the ICPD was great reason for optimism. Namely, that Global experience has also shown that advanced to protect women and men from we may simultaneously achieve a world of with better choices, we can structure our abuses of reproductive rights consequent lower emissions while expanding women’s lives in ways that enhance wellbeing, to widespread concerns over population and girls’ rights, choice and wellbeing.

Not everyone sees climate action as a force for good, and resistance to the Paris Agreement comes in many guises. What can be done to convince those who fear the switch to a low-carbon economy?

By Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Head of Climate There are, of course, the vast economic, economically insecure one. They are, and Energy, WWF financial and political interests who stand understandably, anxious about campaigns to lose from the decarbonisation of the to kill coal or move beyond oil – or, for that very revolution creates losers as well global economy: the companies that matter, to halt the deforestation that allows as winners. The economic and social extract, refine, transport and burn coal, them to plant crops or graze cattle. Erevolution we must undertake to oil and natural gas; the investors who own There are powerful forces, then, that prevent dangerous climate change is no their stock; and the countries whose entire consider climate action to be a threat to exception. However, while many of the fiscal position rests upon the revenues they their interests, and who seek to undo global winners do not yet exist – future employees earn from selling fossil fuels. and national efforts to reduce emissions. of new industries, the generations to come There are also many millions of While they have not entirely succeeded – as who will enjoy a secure climate – the workers whose livelihoods are threatened the landmark Paris Agreement shows – losers are here now, they are vocal, and they by decarbonisation. For them, a they have certainly slowed progress. And are powerful. climate-secure future appears to be an it is fair to say that with the election of

CLIMATE 2020 NEW CHALLENGES 79

CEOs of leading European utility companies, members co-benefits regarding human health and This integration needs to reach the very of the Magritte Initiative, during a press conference at employment. But, in the near term, this top of government. A lesson from the COP21. Such vested interests have the potential to be part of the solution, or part of the problem transition will create burdens that the climate talks is that responding to climate poorer parts of the world are ill equipped to change is an endeavour that reaches beyond bear. The commitments for rich countries the resources of environment ministries. At Donald Trump in the US, and support for to provide $100 billion a year in climate Paris, it was taken up by the world’s leading nationalist parties and causes in Europe, finance did much to build consensus around diplomats. Now, it is time for the world’s those prioritising immediate self-interest a climate agreement. ministers of economy and finance to meet to over addressing long-term collective How, then, is the progress made in Paris discuss climate change. problems like climate change have some to be built upon and continued, especially For it is the economic dimension where momentum behind them. in the face of vested interests and anxious the battle to overcome vested interests and How do those of us who remain deeply electorates? The starting point has to be address climate change will be won or lost. concerned about the problem of climate continuing to present a clear message based For those of us who believe in international change seek to convince those who disagree? on the science behind climate action. We cooperation to address common threats How do we continue to make progress, while are already seeing impacts that threaten to humanity, President Trump and his respecting and supporting those for whom vulnerable ecosystems that are important in nationalist rhetoric, and rising support for the change we need to see will come at a cost? their own right, and relied upon by humans. isolationist and often xenophobic politicians Climate change is threatening a mass seen around the world are deeply troubling. Presenting a clear message extinction at a scale not seen for 65 But it is important to recognise that they are Success in Paris in 2015, and the failure of million years. It is impossible for anyone democratic expressions of genuine concern previous climate conferences, has taught concerned about conserving nature to about jobs and security. us important lessons about how to make be anything but horrified by that fact. Addressing climate change can provide progress based on international consensus. A It is time to better integrate into the answers to some of these concerns. crucial step forward was in allowing countries, through their intended nationally determined contributions, to volunteer their own It is time to better integrate into the climate agenda the emissions goals. This was vital in creating the urgent need to protect biodiversity, and to make explicit the confidence needed to reach agreement. Another key element was the recognition links that exist between nature and human development that the climate process is a political one, in which decisions are made by politicians who need to see political outcomes for the climate agenda the urgent need to protect Exploiting domestic sources of renewable time and resources they invest. Without biodiversity, and to make explicit the links energy can make countries more secure their continued enthusiasm for the process, that exist between nature and human within their borders, and less dependent the political arguments will be won by those development. upon imports of fuel from potentially resisting change. But we also need to better integrate unfriendly or unstable countries. The Science has, of course, had a critical role the economic dimension of sustainability low-carbon transition promises to create in underpinning the process and building with our concerns for the social and more jobs than it destroys. But this must political consensus for action. It was the environmental dimensions. A stable climate be better communicated and, crucially, impact of the first assessment report from is as important for a healthy economy as it is those whose jobs will disappear must not be the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate for healthy ecosystems. left behind. Change (IPCC) in 1990 that led directly It is encouraging to see many of the Putting a price on carbon, and to the 1992 Rio Declaration, and the world’s largest investors recognise the eliminating what the Organisation for creation of the UN Framework Convention threat posed to their investments from Economic Co-operation and Development on Climate Change. The IPCC’s fifth climate change. They have been encouraged estimates is $160 billion of annual subsidies assessment report – published in 2013 and by those bodies that regulate them, and on fossil fuels, would create ample revenues with its recommendations for policy-makers which are concerned about the stability of that could be directed towards helping the – laid the foundations for agreement in financial markets, to analyse, disclose and losers from the low-carbon revolution. Paris in 2015. better manage climate risks. Hopefully this Doing so would build support for climate The fourth element is finance. Moving increased scrutiny will persuade those parts action and undermine those vested interests away from fossil fuels towards renewables of the financial system that continue to fund that would seek to block it. will, over the medium term, reduce the fossil-fuel development to reconsider the And let’s be clear: should this revolution costs of energy, while bringing enormous risks they are assuming. not succeed, none of us will be winners.

CLIMATE 2020 T themselves to avert catastrophic climate change? How can theworld’s economies, whoseprosperity hasbeenbuiltonfossil fuels,transform The path to alow-carbon economy while the latter emphasised that social, while thelatter emphasised thatsocial, global temperaturetowellbelow 2°C, committed tolimittherisein Development Goals.Theformer Paris AgreementandtheUNSustainable CLIMATE 2020 By By 80 Institute for New Economic Thinking Adair Turner, Chairman, future, with the adoption of both the future, withtheadoptionofboth the achievements forourcollective he year2015wasoneofpositive NEW CONTEXT

poverty today – and for the many more not poverty today– and forthemanymorenot estimated 767millionpeoplestill livingin is essentialtoraiselivingstandards forthe powered byenergy. Reliable energyaccess – agriculture,industriesandservices –are greenhouse gasemissions.Our economies world accountforthevastmajority of those agendas.Energysystemsacrossthe inextricably entwined. economic andenvironmentalprogressare The energy sector sits at the centre of The energysectorsitsatthecentreof population expected to reach 11 billion population expected toreach11billion that canmeettheneedsofagrowing world developed economies. yet enjoyingtheprosperitylevels reachedin efforts areefforts challenged by illegal operations to beaworld leaderbut,asinmany countries, official recently embraced climate actionandpositioneditself a furnace atan unauthorisedsteel factory. Chinahas

Inner Mongolia, China.Alabourer loadscoal into The challenge is to build an energy system The challengeistobuildanenergy system

people by 2100. Such a system must allow cent, solar costs by 85 per cent, and battery the global economy to flourish while also costs by 70 per cent. Within 15 years it will achieving net-zero emissions before the end be possible not only to deliver renewable of the century. electricity at prices that are fully competitive Nothing short of a massive with fossil fuel-based power, but also to transformation in global energy systems can provide the low-cost backup and storage enable us to solve this twofold challenge. If required to make it possible to run power instead we meet growing energy needs with systems that are 80 to 90 per cent reliant on Also in this section increased hydrocarbon use, the world could intermittent renewables. be 4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels by Sophisticated grid control and demand the end of the century. The environmental management systems, with incentives to consequences of that will be worst in encourage power use and battery charging Less global? 84 developing countries and underprivileged when supply is plentiful, will produce communities. further significant cost reductions. So, decarbonising power is vital and Climate finance 86 Collective action required possible, but it is not sufficient to drive us Achieving this crucial energy transition towards net-zero emissions. To achieve that, Green economy 90 requires action by governments, business we must also decarbonise sectors that are and citizens across the world. The Energy hard to electrify, especially in heavy industry Business action 92 Transitions Commission – a coalition of and long-distance transport (trucking, incumbent and disruptive energy players, shipping, aviation). The technologies to do energy-intensive industries, investors and that – bioenergy, hydrogen, carbon capture environmental NGOs – was set up to argue for and ensure commitments to that action. The Energy Transitions Commission’s Decarbonising energy flagship report,Better Energy, Greater Prosperity, makes clear the scale of the supply could become challenge. But it also has two positive and optimistic messages: that it is technically a never-ending race if and economically feasible to put the the amount of energy world on a well below 2°C trajectory; and that doing so will create major attractive consumed in the world investment opportunities. keeps growing rapidly Achieving a well below 2°C trajectory is technically and economically feasible. We can cut by half the carbon emissions from and sequestration – exist, but it is not yet energy systems by 2040, while enhancing clear which of these will be most economic social and economic progress, if four parallel in each sector. Crucially, these technologies transition strategies are implemented. are not achieving the cost reductions we are First, we must decarbonise power systems now seeing in renewable power and batteries, by deploying renewable technologies. We as they are not being deployed on the scale must use this clean electricity to power required to drive future rapid cost reduction. an extended set of applications across the Over the next 20 years, we must therefore economy, with particular focus initially achieve that scale of deployment and cost on the wider electrification of transport reduction. To do that, we must use the same and housing. In the next 20 years, such type of public research and development clean electrification will be the single most and deployment support that triggered the important driver of the energy transition, renewables success story. delivering half of the carbon emissions However, decarbonising energy supply reductions required by 2040. could become a never-ending race if This transformation is clearly the amount of energy consumed in the economically feasible. In the last eight years, world keeps growing rapidly. Alongside wind power costs have fallen by 65 per decarbonisation efforts, we must therefore

CLIMATE 2020 82 NEW CONTEXT

restrain the growth in global energy Second, we must develop multiple forms investment for social and economic demand by using energy more efficiently. of carbon sequestration to absorb residual development are very often two sides of Our objective should be to increase energy emissions. These include natural carbon the same coin. It is about providing reliable productivity (GDP per unit of energy sinks (for instance, through reforestation), energy access to households and businesses; consumed) by three per cent per annum, carbon capture and storage in underground constructing affordable, comfortable and about twice the historic pace. reservoirs, and carbon capture and energy-efficient buildings; developing

Analysis shows that this is technically conversion into CO2-based products. transport infrastructures that meet mobility feasible: by deploying the best technologies These possibilities must certainly needs while avoiding health-destroying currently available, we could theoretically not be treated as a ‘get-out-of-jail-free air pollution; and strengthening the keep global energy demand flat by 2050. card’ that removes the need for rapid competitiveness of industries, through Reality is trickier, though, as this implies falls in fossil fuel use. But we should lower energy costs and greater innovation. improving the energy efficiency of billions acknowledge that, without significant use Developing countries have an of buildings, home appliances, vehicles and of carbon sequestration, particularly to opportunity to leapfrog to efficient, industrial plants. help decarbonise heavy industrial sectors, decentralised energy systems with high emission reduction numbers are unlikely to upfront capital costs but low operating Increasing investment add up to what is required. costs. They can avoid investing in old That is why, in addition to energy efficiency This four-dimensional strategy can meet fashioned, less efficient and centralised improvements, we should pursue structural both the climate change and development energy systems that can lock them into changes in the economy that enable GDP challenges. But isn’t this plan a spending higher costs in the future. growth while using less energy-intensive black hole? goods and services. Efficient urban design, The answer is no, because the second Unlocking economic opportunities circular and sharing economy models, and positive message of our report is that this Investors are increasingly aware that the the increased digitalisation of economic energy transition does not represent a major low-carbon economy can provide attractive activities could be the most important drivers macroeconomic challenge. On the contrary, returns on investment, especially at a time of this energy productivity revolution. it is an incredible investment opportunity, of historically low interest rates. Green finance events and new energy departments within banks and asset management firms The key challenge we face is to shift investment flows reveal this growing interest. But many investors are still cautious, away from the fossil fuels sector towards renewables, unsure about how costs and public policies clean technologies and energy-efficient infrastructure will evolve. Often, they are also worried about the country risks associated with investment in emerging economies. The Finally, we need to acknowledge that and a potential driver of economic development of blended finance tools – fossil fuel use won’t disappear immediately. prosperity. We estimate that $300–$600 through which development banks and If the three transitions described above billion per annum of incremental other sources of public money de-risk are implemented, demand for hydrocarbons investment is required to build low-carbon green investments for private investors – will decrease significantly (by approximately energy systems across the world. Given is therefore likely to be crucial to unlock one third) by 2040, but will still represent total global savings of around $20 trillion economic opportunities related to the about half of global energy supply. The annually and global GDP of $78 trillion, energy transition. challenge is to make that compatible with this is significant but entirely manageable. The key challenge we face is to shift the fact that we must limit CO2 emissions Indeed, in a period of slow global growth, investment flows away from the fossil from energy systems to 900 billion tonnes with extremely low or even negative fuels sector towards renewables, clean at most between now and 2100 if we are to real interest rates signalling a dearth of technologies and energy-efficient limit warming to well below 2°C. investment opportunities relative to desired infrastructure and equipment. Do that, How can we do that? First, we have to global savings, increased investment in a and we can achieve the massive energy optimise the remaining use of fossil fuels green, low-carbon economy could be a transition required to limit the rise in global by prioritising the least polluting fuels – gas positive factor underpinning global demand temperatures to well below 2°C while also (striped of methane leakages) rather than and growth. ensuring economic and social progress. oil, and anything rather than coal – and the This is particularly true in developing Collectively meeting this challenge is applications where they are most difficult to countries, where almost 60 per cent of low- possible, but public policy-makers, investors substitute, such as heavy industry and long- carbon investment needs are concentrated. and businesses must act now to accelerate distance transport. Investment in green infrastructure and the pace of change.

CLIMATE 2020 83

EFACEC

Sustainability at the core Efacec’s corporate vision sees the company strategically adapting to a new era in energy solutions

he future will be an era of new energy launching new solutions in the areas of energy solutions, intense material circularity, storage, micro grids, metering devices and new transportation systems, new energy integration systems. Society’s ecosystem economic models and new concepts Companies also need to review and Tof society. A future in which Efacec is fully improve the performance of their products constantly requires committed to being an active partner, fostering throughout their entire life cycle. In addition, the development of new energy solutions for a the imperative of creating a circular economy new products, services more sustainable world. encourages them to review their business models to optimise the consumption and and solutions Committed to new environmental challenges reuse of materials. Due to the risk of an environmental collapse This is why our heavy material products, create Efacec’s Academy, an internal entity in the near future, society’s ecosystem such as power transformers, are now the dedicated exclusively to people’s development. constantly requires new products, services focus of intense design and innovation efforts Simultaneously, Efacec has been aware of the and solutions. To tackle this impending threat, to save materials. Customers are also being need to create a favourable environment to most companies need to adapt their portfolio informed of the best ways to dispose of end- speed up innovation and encourage employees’ to be successful. of-life equipment. And as a major contribution dedication and creativity. Throughout the As technological innovation is part of to the circular economy, Efacec offers entire year it runs multiple projects to foster this, Efacec’s DNA, we have long-established rehabilitation services for transformers, both internal initiatives and ones open to R&D business initiatives in the fields of renewables, switchgears and rotating machines, which groups and academia. metro/light train systems and water enable us to save between 50% to 80% of the All these improvements have been treatment. original materials’ weight. organised under a holistic and integrated More recently we have started developing programme called Efacec 2020, which and commercialising smart grid components Leveraging innovation through people identifies our corporate strategic pillars and and electrical vehicle chargers, applying our The rapid pace of new product development was developed in consultation with our people. extensive experience in energy automation also brings new challenges in terms of people At the core of Efacec 2020 is our mission: systems and electronic power supply to management. A few years ago, the growing to continuously create energy solutions for a address sustainability. Currently, we are need for training and education led us to more sustainable world.

UNA-UK thanks Efacec for its generous support for Climate 2020 84 NEW CONTEXT

Local solutions

Is the current globalised economic model compatible with solving climate change?

By Helena Norberg-Hodge, Founder, and technology-dependent definition of million because the province of Quebec Local Futures development. placed a moratorium on natural gas fracking. TransCanada Corporation sued lobal collaboration and the free Globalised inequality and the climate the US for $15 billion for blocking the flow of ideas and solutions between It is often implied that poverty in the Keystone XL pipeline. This leads to a Gpeople and governments around the Global South can only be addressed by climate of ‘regulatory chill’ as countries – world will be absolutely crucial as we face encouraging foreign investment and particularly poorer ones – become afraid to the climate challenge. development on a globalised model. But pass environmental legislation that would Economic globalisation, however, is in fact we see that corporate globalisation leave them open to ISDS suits. something very different. With its goals of has enabled transnational companies to Trade agreements and fossil-fuel subsidies perpetual growth, carbon-intensive trade extract resources and labour from poor have also led to dramatic increases in and deregulated corporate power, economic countries – those with the most lax labour emissions from transport. Fish caught globalisation has fuelled enormous increases and environmental regulations. in North America are sent to China for in inequality while rapidly accelerating the The result is that wealth is concentrated filleting, and then back to the US for sale. release of carbon into the atmosphere. in fewer and fewer hands. As of last At the same time, many countries import The destabilising impacts of corporate January, according to an Oxfam report, and export similar quantities of the same globalisation on local jobs and communities just eight men owned the same wealth agricultural products, as tax incentives have created two separate counter- as the 3.6 billion people who make up make food grown thousands of miles away movements: one that is hopeful and one that the poorest half of humanity. When we cheaper than food grown down the street. is potentially dangerous. On the one hand, a rise in xenophobia and nationalism is threatening the ability of the Localising our economies does not mean turning away from global community to enter into cooperative agreements to protect the climate. On the global cooperation or condemning societies to poverty. other hand, and far more hopeful for the On the contrary, it means strengthening local economies climate, is the growing movement to return power from transnational corporations to people, communities and democratically frame climate solutions only in terms of Such globalised production also lets elected governments – the movement for investment in large-scale corporate ‘green’ countries dodge the true environmental economic localisation. technology, we risk continuing to exacerbate costs of their consumption. In 2006, 21 per To understand how economic localisation this trend. cent of air pollutants produced in China can help us implement the Paris Agreement, were created in the manufacture of goods we need to question the assumptions that Trade agreements and the climate for export to the US.1 The raw materials many well-intentioned people have about the Trade agreements that allow the desires that went into those goods may have already ideas of growth, development and ‘progress’. of corporations to trump the needs of travelled from South Africa or Indonesia. We need to look at the many benefits – for communities and ecosystems threaten the By outsourcing their production, wealthy people, for food security, for ecosystems climate in multiple ways. The investor- nations are outsourcing their emissions as and the climate – of diverse, connected but state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions well. They are creating the impression of a economically localised communities. written into most trade agreements allow shrinking ecological footprint – when in fact Similarly, we must ensure that there is foreign investors to sue governments if their footprint is simply being left on less a genuine exchange of ideas and solutions they regulate in ways that threaten their developed parts of the world. between more and less developed countries. future profits. Vibrant, sustainable ways of life already in Citing the North American Free Trade Climate and the globalised food system existence around the world must not be Agreement, US company Lone Pine Estimates of the food sector’s contribution abandoned in favour of one culturally biased Resources Inc. sued Canada for $250 to greenhouse gas emissions range from 19

CLIMATE 2020 NEW CONTEXT 85

Harvesting soybean in Mato Grosso, Brazil. The global food industry’s demand for beef and, more recently, soybean are the major causes of deforestation in Brazil

in Paris, emphasises that, “responding to climate change requires a major change in value systems and calls into question the very meaning of ‘prosperity’”. He says: “Within the Paris framework there are predefined roles for nations – determined by their status as developed nations, developing nations, and LDCs [least developed countries] – that are based on culturally biased definitions of development. “Those definitions essentially assume that industrialisation is fundamental to development. There is no acknowledgment of historic contributions by LDCs, through their traditional cultures, to the conservation of resources and natural areas… “Technology transfer from the North to the South has long been regarded as the path to a better life in the less-developed regions of the world. But even the best and the most sustainable technology proposed in Paris would make Nepal less sustainable

© Pulsar Imagens/Alamy Stock Photo Stock Imagens/Alamy © Pulsar than it is today, thus leading us in the wrong direction. Indeed, cultural transfer from the to 29 per cent. The industrial monocultures poverty only in terms of per capita income South to the North would lead both in a that make up the bulk of internationally may conceal the fact that when people more sustainable direction.” traded food commodities rely heavily on move from rural smallholder farming into, agrochemicals and mechanised equipment – say, sweatshop jobs in urban centres, their True interconnection both of which result in significant emissions. quality of life often goes down even as their The global-to-local economic movement is They also degrade soil, depleting it of its cash income – and their carbon footprint – uniting a wide range of existing campaigns. ability to sequester carbon. goes up. These include strong movements for local Monocultural farming for export is not food, local business, decentralised renewable only less climate-friendly, it leaves people What is progress? energy and cooperative community-owned vulnerable to fluctuating international The Paris Agreement takes the important banks. These movements enable people markets and threatens local food security. step of encouraging more developed nations to link hands across many divides: North As the UN Food and Agriculture to shoulder a greater share of the climate and South, left and right, economic and Organization explains: “Family and small- burden. It is important to remember, environmental, urban and rural. scale farming are inextricably linked to world however, that this does not mean all Localising our economies does not mean food security. Family farming preserves nations should follow the same pathway turning away from global cooperation or traditional food products, while contributing to development. condemning societies to poverty. On the to a balanced diet and safeguarding the Western culture celebrates material contrary, it means strengthening local world’s agro-biodiversity and the sustainable consumption, technology and wealth in economies as we open a deeper global use of natural resources.” ways that are inherently unsustainable. The dialogue in our effort to meet the growing Many rural communities that are conventional economy measures, in Robert climate challenge. defined as among the poorest in the world F. Kennedy’s words, “everything except that in fact have significant resilience and which is worthwhile”. 1 Lin, J. et al. (2014). “China’s international trade and air pollution in the United States”. Proceedings of ecological health from sustainable local Shail Shrestha, a member of the delegation the National Academy of Sciences of the United food production. Statistics that measure from Nepal to the UN climate conference States of America 111(5):1736–41.

Tackling climate change will require huge amounts of investment, much of it in nascent technologies with as-yet unproven returns. How can the international community ensure that investors channel sufficient funds towards the most high-impact projects?

By Barbara Buchner, Executive Director, to fulfilling the Paris Agreement and energy efficiency over the next 15 years. Climate Finance, Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). CPI’s Global Landscape of Climate Finance The International Energy Agency shows that the world is making progress. In caling up investment to the right estimates that just to get the energy sector 2014, we invested $392 billion in low-carbon projects, sectors and regions on a low-carbon pathway, we need to invest projects, up 15 per cent from the previous Sis arguably the key challenge $16.5 trillion in renewable energy and year, due in large part to record private

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The Salma Hydroelectric Dam in Afghanistan’s Herat province, built under a development partnership with India. Most climate finance does not cross borders, but Unlocking investment in India through the world’s poorest will require external assistance to improved policy and financial innovation improve access to clean energy CPI identified high financing costs as a major barrier to meeting the Indian government’s ambitious renewable energy targets. In particular, it found that expensive, investment in renewable energy. However, short-term domestic debt was adding 24 to 32 per cent to the cost of Indian renewable investment still falls far short of the needs. energy, compared with similar projects in the US. In addition, earlier-stage technologies and CPI’s analysis demonstrated that by providing low-cost, long-term debt via budgetary markets face difficulty overcoming the support, the government could make renewable energy cost-competitive with ‘valley of death’ in attracting capital to scale conventional power while also spending 28 to 78 per cent less than existing support at the levels needed. policies. The provision of low-cost, long-term debt has become the main policy solution advocated by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. Creating an enabling framework As secretariat of the India Innovation Lab for Green Finance, CPI is working to support How, then, can we overcome these the development of further solutions. For instance, India’s solar targets include 40 GW challenges? Based on CPI’s work to of rooftop solar power by 2022. But investors’ lack of confidence in the sector and the understand investment trends, accelerate small size of rooftop solar system deals mean that project developers cannot access effective use of available financial resources, debt finance at adequate terms. and develop and scale solutions, we have The Rooftop Solar Private Sector Financing Facility addresses this by structuring identified several key lessons. small projects together to bring aggregate deals to a size and credit quality sufficient to First, policy and public resources matter, attract investment. By demonstrating its commercial viability, these investments may playing a critical role in making the market. enable the sector to issue asset-backed securities to institutional investors in the future, However, it is important to recognise that further reducing the cost of capital and expanding the investor base. public investment alone cannot fill the gap. The private sector controls the vast majority of the world’s assets, and can and The second lesson is that knowledge Disclosures from the G20, the Financial will invest when risks and returns align. is power. In recent years there has been Stability Board and others would also help Given the urgency of the challenge, the goal considerable progress in understanding point the way forward. of public investment and policy should be to investment risks related to climate change. The final lesson is that we need to think create appropriate environments for private However, this information is not always outside of the box. Scaling investment investment to flow to key areas. available to investors – and certainly not to the level required to meet the Paris Critical to this is the ‘enabling framework’ in consistent and comparable formats that Agreement and UN SDGs will require for investment. The majority of low-carbon could best inform their decision-making on investment not just in sectors where finance is raised and spent in the same managing risks and returns. there are established and compelling country. About 74 per cent of total climate There is a need to further integrate technologies and business models, such finance flows never cross a border, and climate change considerations into daily as renewable energy. that share increases to 92 per cent when decision-making and the financial system It will also need investment in more looking only at private finance. Because more generally, to enable investors to difficult sectors – such as energy efficiency, domestic investment dominates, it is vital understand both the risks and opportunities land use, adaptation and transit – where to get domestic policy and support related to climate change. technologies are newer and access to frameworks right. There is a window of opportunity right capital is more constrained. There is a need Clear targets and stable policy now to define strong, common standards to scale innovative, actionable financial frameworks mean less risk for private for climate risk disclosure before approaches solutions that can really make a difference. investors. In addition, targeted public start to proliferate. Companies and investors policies – like feed-in tariffs, guarantees, will want to minimise the administrative Current innovations tax incentives and concessional loans – can burden by reporting according to one The Global Innovation Lab for Climate close gaps in risk and returns between dirty widely used set of standards. France’s Finance (the Lab) provides an example practices and clean ones, in many cases introduction of mandatory climate change- of how to drive investment in a number without placing major strains on public related reporting for institutional investors of sectors by developing and scaling resources. Ensuring a level playing field is is a good example of actions that can help innovative business models and financial also key – for example, in many countries, build on this momentum. instruments. The Lab is a partnership that fossil fuel subsidies still far outpace clean Endorsements of the recommendations of brings together public and private actors to energy subsidies. the Task Force on Climate-related Financial address persistent investment barriers.

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The global landscape of climate finance

Climate finance ﬂows along their life cycle. Figures are in USD billions and are for the latest year available, mostly 2014 BN USD 391 TOTAL

SOURCES AND INTERMEDIARIES INSTRUMENTS RECIPIENTS USES $9 RISK MANAGEMENT $1 ADAPTATION $25 AGENCIES UNKNOWN $3 $56 GOVERNMENT GRANTS $14 BUDGETS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE INSTITUTIONS DUAL BENEFITS LOW-COST PRIVATE NGO AND $4 -NATIONAL- $52 PROJECT DEBT FOUNDATIONS $1 $69 NE NE NE -BILATERAL- $12 PUBLIC -MULTILATERAL- $55 $40

PROJECT-LEVEL $6 9 CLIMATE FUNDS MARKET RATE DEBT $102 PUBLIC/PRIVATE $7 OTH ER MITIG . NE COMMERCIAL $42 NE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

NE PRIVATE EQUITY, VENTURE CAPITAL, INFRA. FUNDS PROJECT-LEVEL EQUITY $25 NE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS $18 UNKNOWN

MITIGATION ERA TIO N $361 GE N NE PROJECT BALANCE SHEET DEVELOPERS FINANCING $179 $73 PRIVATE $29 2 $271

LE ENE RG Y

NE CORPORATE RE NEWAB ACTORS $56 DEBT PORTION

NE HOUSEHOLDS $43

PUBLIC PRIVATE PUBLIC FINANCIAL PRIVATE FINANCIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL INVESTMENT FINANCE FOR INVESTORS & LENDERS KEY MONEY MONEY INTERMEDIARIES INTERMEDIARIES AND INCREMENTAL COSTS Source: Climate Policy Initiative NE: NOT ESTIMATED

It does this by identifying, developing, some markets, a lack of confidence in, Elsewhere, a new initiative currently stress-testing and supporting the piloting and experience of, their benefits in in development called the Cloud Forest of the next generation of climate finance some developing countries has stalled Blue Energy Mechanism creates a new instruments, with the goal of mobilising investment. This instrument addresses business model to restore forests by billions for climate action in developing those barriers and is being scaled by the partnering with hydropower plants that countries. In just under three years, the Inter-American Development Bank to can benefit from such restoration in the Lab has helped raise over $600 million in reach thousands of businesses in seven form of improved water flow and reduced seed capital for renewable energy, energy Latin American countries. sedimentation. These types of financial efficiency and climate adaptation projects – The Lab also develops instruments to structures can deliver environmental and and received an endorsement from the G7. unlock investment in sectors with less of investment returns. These innovations include instruments a track record. For instance, the Climate- To successfully transition to a low- such as Energy Savings Insurance, which Smart Lending Platform brings together carbon economy, the world needs trillions, guarantees savings from investments in the tools, actors and finance necessary to not billions. Using public resources proven energy efficiency technologies made reduce climate risk in lending portfolios effectively to spur private investment and by small and medium-sized enterprises. and scale up climate-smart lending to investing in innovation can help channel While these technologies are proven in smallholders globally. investment where it’s needed most.

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UK EXPORT FINANCE UK Export Finance: trade for good

How can UK financing and UK expertise support countries in achieving their Paris Agreement targets? By Richard Simon-Lewis, Head of Civil, Infrastructure and Energy, UK Export Finance

ne of the most important discussions at COP21 was about financing the Paris Agreement, but given the scale of ambition, Omore than just development assistance will be needed. At the same time, there are important technological advances being made – for example in the UK’s world-leading energy sector – but this expertise needs to be made available across borders. That is where UK Export Finance (UKEF) comes in. As the UK’s export credit agency, we provide finance and insurance to help UK firms MIR by render Zaha Hadid Architects, © Designed by export both their expertise and technology. Our financing can be the critical ingredient that Bee’ah’s headquarters will be the first building of its kind in Sharjah, UAE, to be powered entirely by renewable makes a project happen, and we welcome any and recoverable energy sources. UKEF provided finance for its construction opportunity to play a role in projects that help realise the Paris Agreement. UK exports of carbon-reducing technology social and human rights practitioners, we are is the headquarters building of waste taking a leadership role to ensure that these Offshore Cape Three Points management company Bee’ah in the United risks are properly managed. Take, for example, the Offshore Cape Three Arab Emirates. Points project in Ghana. UKEF provided The building, which was designed by Zaha UKEF and the Paris Agreement US$400 million in financing to make the project Hadid Architects and is being built by Carillion, Realising the Paris Agreement will take an happen, supporting a GE Oil & Gas contract and will be the first in the city of Sharjah to be unprecedented mobilisation across nearly working alongside the World Bank Group. powered entirely by renewable and recoverable 200 countries. It will require governments, the This transformative natural gas project energy sources, while utilising recycled private sector and international organisations to will displace the use of heavy oil, reducing materials in its construction. work together and, most critically, it will require Ghana’s carbon emissions by an estimated 1.6 significant investment. million metric tons annually. The World Bank Renewable energy We at UKEF stand ready to support estimates that this is equivalent to taking 1.2 In 2016, we signed a Memorandum of more projects that will help realise the Paris million cars off the road each year or planting Understanding with the Kenyan Government Agreement – especially in the renewable 152 million trees – and most importantly it affirming our appetite to support renewable sector. will help Ghana achieve its COP21 target of energy development in the country. We are also “doubling energy efficiency improvement to strengthening our renewables capability, and To find out more about how UKEF can make this 20% in power plants.” are working with sector associations to help happen, visit: www.gov.uk/uk-export-finance It will also have a huge impact on Ghana’s smaller suppliers access opportunities with progress against the Sustainable Development major projects and the finance they need to Goals. The project will fuel up to 1,000MW of fulfil them. domestic power generation for more than 15 years – around 25% of total estimated thermal Responsible trade power generation capacity in 2020. UKEF is also committed to encouraging Energy security is a critical factor across responsible investment. In June, we were development areas from nutrition to education elected to the Steering Group of the Equator to health, and will bring significant benefits to Principles Association – a global framework for Ghana’s 27 million citizens. managing environmental, social and human rights risks in projects. Sustainable construction Here, and as an active member of the UNA-UK thanks UK Export Finance for its Another notable example of UKEF supporting OECD’s export credit group’s environmental, generous support for Climate 2020 transition to inclusive green economies The goalsoftheParis Agreement are inexorably interwoven withtheSDGs,andbothrequire a Towards economy green a CLIMATE 2020 90 © Noel Celis/AFP/Getty Images NEW CONTEXT T sustained growth and societal progress. sustained growthandsocietalprogress. approaches providenewopportunitiesfor challenges weface.Moreover, these linked social,environmentalandeconomic the toolsandflexibilitytorespond Paris Agreement.Theyprovideuswith and tosuccessfulimplementationofthe central tothisparadigm-changingprocess, growth models. even aswemakeradicalchangestoour reduce inequalitiesandleavenoonebehind must ensurethistransitionisjust,sothatwe changing thewaysocietiesgrow. Andwe must besafeguardedbyfundamentally services’ –underpindevelopment,and and growth. food, fuel,medicineandresourcesforjobs our livesbyprovidingcleanwater, air, soil, ecosystems bringbenefitstoallaspectsof cannot belastingorinclusive.Healthy and instabilitywilldeepen,growth our sharedplanet. and, indeed,theveryfoundationsoflifeon Sustainable DevelopmentGoals(SDGs) Nations Development Programme (UNDP) By adopted – not even two years ago – new adopted –noteventwoyearsago –new is urgent.SincetheParisAgreementwas action andtheshifttoagreenereconomy The needforcomprehensiveclimate We needto actnow success ofboththeParis Agreement andtheSDGs community action,willbeinstrumental to the combined withacommitment to fairnesss and Greater socialandenvironmental awareness,

Volunteers collect rubbishinManila, Philippines. Inclusive green economy approaches are Inclusive greeneconomyapproachesare These benefits–knownas‘ecosystem Unless degradationiscurtailed,poverty Achim Steiner, Administrator, United threatens our efforts to achieve the threatens oureffortstoachievethe and environmentaldegradation he impactofclimatechange

NEW CONTEXT 91

and more sobering milestones have been These pressures are compounded by Investing in sustainable development reached. Carbon dioxide levels in the the impact of climate change. Until our makes sense for companies and atmosphere have breached 400 parts per development trajectory is less polluting, and entrepreneurs in developed and developing million for the first time. The highest more resource efficient and climate resilient countries. It opens new markets, increases average global temperatures ever have been it can no longer be sustained. competitiveness and savings, protects recorded. We have witnessed exceptionally The challenges are formidable. But the long-term profits, allows companies to low sea ice, and growing sea-level rise and solutions offer unprecedented opportunities leapfrog technologically, and responds ocean heat. There have been more extreme for eliminating poverty and setting the to evolving consumer demand and weather events, including storms, floods, world on a new path of prosperity, stability shareholder interests. droughts and fires, with devastating impacts on communities and commerce. These trends and events are having, and Each boundary we cross represents a tipping point, will continue to have, a direct impact on the SDGs. By 2030 up to 100 million beyond which the risk to our societies, economies more people may be at risk of falling and collective security increases significantly – into poverty due to the changing climate (SDGs 1, 10); 120 million more children in with potentially catastrophic consequences sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could suffer from malnourishment and stunting and growth that simultaneously protects our And while public financing is critical, by 2050 (SDG 2); and approximately planet for future generations. And inclusive the much greater share of climate change 250,000 additional deaths per year from green economy approaches are key to finance and green investment will come malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat advancing these solutions. from the private sector. For example, stress could occur between 2030 and 2050 The notion of inclusive green over the next 15 years tens of trillions of (SDGs 3, 5). economies is not empty idealism – a mere dollars will need to be invested – not just in The average global economic loss due conceptualisation of the world as we would traditional infrastructure but also in natural to climate change could reach 3.2 per cent like to see it. The shift to green economies infrastructure such as forests, fisheries and of global GDP by 2030 and as much as 10 is already becoming a reality, one that coastal protection. per cent by 2100 (SDG 8). Tensions related continues to gain traction and influence. Countries need a mix of domestic, to migration, food and water shortages Countries around the world are international, public and private resources, are already exacerbated by climate change leading this shift – with governments channelled through the likes of green (SDG 16). Human-induced climate and parliaments putting the policies in bonds, conservation financing and impact change and environmental degradation are place that will allow us to achieve real investing. Better-targeted and more also pushing us past other key planetary transformations. efficient use of public funds can help thresholds related to the health of our More than 190 countries have submitted catalyse private climate financing with oceans (SDGs 6, 14), biodiversity loss national targets – or intended nationally dividends across the SDGs. (SDG 15) and unsustainable production and determined contributions – on climate consumption (SDGs 9, 11, 12). change. Over 175 countries have renewable Realising the opportunities Each boundary we cross represents a energy targets in place, and more than 65 Historically, the climate change debate tipping point, beyond which the risk to our countries have created green economy has encompassed the notion that there societies, economies and collective security plans. These commitments are supported is a trade-off between growth and increases significantly – with potentially at the global level by initiatives like the environmental and social sustainability. catastrophic consequences. UN Partnership for Action on Green That trade-off is false. As we look towards 2030 and beyond, Economy (PAGE). As the 2030 Agenda makes clear, there the resources needed by our growing world is today an undeniable consensus on community will only increase. Over the The private sector and climate finance the urgent necessity and the compelling next two decades, the global population will The private sector is fundamental to this business case for pursuing green and expand by more than 1.2 billion people; process. We can no longer think of two inclusive development pathways. our urban footprint is expected to triple; separate and competing climate change The debate has moved on. Through demand for food will increase by 35 per and business agendas. As much as there initiatives like PAGE, our focus now is on cent, for water by 40 per cent, and for is a normative and humanitarian case for how we can realise the many development energy by 50 per cent. By 2050 we will need addressing climate change and advancing opportunities afforded by inclusive green to generate over 1.5 billion new jobs for the SDGs, there is also a formidable economy approaches to accelerate progress women and men. business case. on the SDGs and Paris Agreement.

CLIMATE 2020 © Daniel Schoenen CLIMATE 2020 92 How are companies responding, andwhatcan bedoneto speedprogress? Meeting theclimate challengewillrequire radical andrapid transformation to businesspractices. climate on action business up Shaking NEW CONTEXT

NEW CONTEXT 93

Rosskopf mountain above Freiburg im Breisgau, Baden-Württemberg, Germany. The state government, putting transparency at the core of its climate action policy, is a good example of how sub-national government can spur business to greater climate action

it urges its customers to, “Know your factories. Know your costs. Always ask why.” The company profiles its factories on its website, and breaks down the garment cost into its component parts, including profit margin. Similarly, Nudie Jeans, which has always manufactured with 100 per cent organic cotton, now has a goal of 100 per cent transparency. Global Forest Watch even uses interactive online tools to create a monitoring and alert system for the status of forests worldwide. As we move into implementing the Paris Agreement, could radical transparency help to deliver radical decarbonisation? At The Climate Group our mission is to accelerate climate action. We work to drive the pace, scale and ambition of climate initiatives to limit warming to well below 2°C and ensure a prosperous future

As we move into implementing the Paris Agreement, could radical transparency help to deliver radical decarbonisation?

By Helen Clarkson, CEO, The Climate Group seen numerous businesses stumble as their for all. We do this by building networks of communications teams have been caught companies and sub-national governments e live in an age of profound short by scandals that they were ill-prepared that come together around common goals change, with technological to handle. or commitments, and support them to turn Wdevelopments at the centre these commitments into action. of huge shifts in societies, economies and Radical transparency This is where transparency comes in. values. As the digital age unfolds and we But while the idea of online transparency Working with our partner CDP, we check move into the era of big data, there is a can feel daunting to some, organisations are on how organisations are progressing those wide-scale disruption to business as usual, also finding out how they can build trust by commitments, and showcase their work but one that could have a huge upside for sharing information and being open about to demonstrate what is possible and drive the climate. their challenges and flaws. A new concept further ambition. One large shift has been the emergence has emerged: ‘radical transparency’. Our ambitious “RE100” campaign of social media as a check and balance on Fashion brand Everlane is founded on brings together the world’s most corporate action. In the last few years we’ve the premise of radical transparency, and influential companies committed to 100

CLIMATE 2020 94 NEW CONTEXT

per cent renewable electricity. More that the climate poses for a company. By in Massachusetts that proposes a biennial than 100 leading corporates have signed focusing squarely on these risks, this also disclosure report of progress on their up from different areas of the world, makes the business case for corporate action mitigation efforts. covering sectors as diverse as information on climate change, as a risk-mitigation We are clearly seeing our sub-national technology (for example, Apple and activity. To that end, the report also lists a government partners embrace the Google), financial services (Wells Fargo number of opportunity areas that companies transparency agenda. As Franz Untersteller, and UBS), manufacturing (Tata Motors should focus on, such as lower-emission Minister of the Environment, Climate and Unilever) and retail (IKEA Group forms of energy. Protection and the Energy Sector for and Walmart). This is the reason that ShareAction, the Baden-Württemberg government in Bringing together this large group of another partner of ours, has been Germany has said: “Transparency lies at the diverse companies sends a powerful market championing the importance of corporate heart of a successful climate action policy. signal, showing the growing demand action on climate change as part of its This is the only way to prove we are on the for renewable energy. The 100 per cent responsible investment work. ShareAction right track towards our climate goals.” commitment is important: it shows not only that members are serious, but also that there’s no room for compromise – there’s We’re seeing that transparency coupled with no ‘last slice’ that isn’t renewable. This ambition drives both internal decision- communication drives more action. Knowing what making and external interactions with others have done reinforces the business case for the market. Data reported to CDP for RE100 shows actions, and moves climate action into the mainstream examples of significant leaps in renewable electricity uptake from these companies, some finding themselves going faster than has been highlighting investor interest in Spreading the word they originally anticipated. climate-change risk to businesses, as well A final critical tool for The Climate Group Goldman Sachs, for example, went from as asking questions at AGMs about what is communication to share success and 14 per cent renewable electricity in 2014 action is being taken. For example, they drive more action. We share stories of to 86 per cent in 2015; Elopak went from challenged Burberry over going 100 per climate action to show both that a world 18 per cent to 86 per cent; and H&M from cent renewable at their 2016 AGM, and with under 2°C of warming is possible, but 27 per cent to 78 per cent in the same the company announced their RE100 also action that is happening. That includes timeframe. Companies are progressing membership last month. both our work with corporations as they set because they recognise the compelling Transparency is also a tool that we use in and then meet their targets, and case studies business case for switching. our work with sub-national governments from governments that help inspire policy through the Under2 Coalition, again in action elsewhere. Reporting on climate risk partnership with CDP. We first worked with So, while it might be tempting to think While campaigns such as RE100 are CDP on a disclosure pilot for our state and of transparency as akin to benchmarking putting pressure on businesses to make regional partners in 2014. While there were and fear that companies will only aim commitments and follow up, at the same 12 partners involved in that pilot, we’ve to stay marginally ahead of their peers, time the investment community is also seen year-on-year growth, with 44 in 2015, instead we’re seeing that transparency driving change. While companies are used 62 in 2016 and 100 looking likely to have coupled with communication drives to making financial disclosures and having disclosed by the time the reporting period more action. Knowing what others have these pored over by investors, carbon closes later on this year. While governments done reinforces the business case for disclosure is somewhat newer. But within are given the option to keep some of their actions, and moves climate action into a few years we could be seeing these sorts disclosures private, increasingly we’re seeing the mainstream. of disclosures on the same footing as the a willingness to disclose publicly. Our work on a campaign such as RE100 statutory report and accounts. Alongside this increase in disclosure, will be done when a commitment to A recent report from the Task Force on we’ve also seen a ratcheting up of ambition. 100 per cent renewable electricity is the Climate-related Financial Disclosures makes Last year a number of governments moved business norm, not the exception. While four recommendations on how companies to net-zero targets for the first time. We’re we’ve recently welcomed our 102nd should report on climate risk. Interestingly, also seeing moves such as the government of member, and are excited for more to the task force moved away from talking Chhattisgarh in India planning to develop join the fold, we’re also looking forward about an impact that a company has on a website on their climate action as a result to the day when such a commitment is the climate, and instead focuses on the risk of our engagement with them, and a bill entirely unremarkable.

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GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES Case study: communal approach to forest conservation Golden Agri-Resources is engaging the community to commit to forest conservation

onservation planning and What does Participatory Conservation Planning (PCP) involve? management is a key priority for Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) 1 2 3 since establishing the first Forest CConservation Policy in the palm oil sector in 2011, which outlined how GAR intended GAR visits the area to understand Participatory Mapping – GAR Joint discussion with local to decouple palm oil production from more about the landscape and works with villages to map community to identify areas for deforestation. GAR subsequently identified village(s) living in the area critical areas for food security conservation according to GAR’s and is managing 72,000 hectares of Social & Environmental Policy high carbon stock (HCS) forests and high conservation value (HCV) areas for 4 5 6 conservation within our concessions. Implementing zero deforestation commitments and achieving long-term A core element of PCP involves Where communities reject Final map combining areas for conservation is as much a human matter as designing Alternative Livelihood the idea of conservation conservation, development programmes such as organic vegetable altogether and clear HCS land and food security, together it is an operational one. Companies manage farming using spare communal land, for farming, GAR’s stand is with management plan is concession leases temporarily assigned to allowing communities to earn additional not to buy from them presented to key stakeholders them by governments, ideally granted with the income without disturbing forests agreement of local communities. While these leases can run for decades, government reserves the right to reclaim concession areas the belief they would not be allowed to use the timeframe and resource requirements for not fully developed. alternative land for their subsistence. the entire process, GAR is committing to engage Meanwhile, local communities have their Intensive engagement educated the another 10 villages for PM in 2017. Furthermore, own needs to meet within their customary community on the significance of HCS forests we are using this model of community village boundaries – e.g., food security or income and the long-term benefits of conservation. partnership to rehabilitate 2,600 hectares generation – and will not automatically protect GAR also demonstrated controlled ways to of peat land in West Kalimantan, and halt land earmarked for conservation. Companies utilise the forest for their subsistence while future encroachment into peat areas through must undergo intensive negotiation with them still maintaining its integrity. Convinced, implementation of Alternative Livelihood while mediating with local governments on this community accepted the proposal and programmes. Scaled up, this protection- acceptable land use, on land whose boundaries issued village regulations to manage their production model helps ensure economic and customary rights are often poorly defined forest, formalising the agreement at a public growth in tandem with forest conservation and overlapping. consultation event held in August. as we launch similar partnerships across our Halting encroachment or the degradation Next, GAR will facilitate the launching concessions. The model goes well beyond of conservation land requires community buy- of village regulation as a legal basis for economic growth to support UN SDGs such in to the concept of long-term conservation. communities to manage forests that are agreed as ending poverty; good health and wellbeing; For GAR, this depends on an extensive upon by them to be protected sustainably. quality education; and reducing inequalities. and intensive investment in a Participatory These villages will also start to run an Alter- Palm oil companies can play an important Conservation Planning (PCP) process. native Livelihood programme with GAR support, role in securing the future of the forests in ‘Production-protection partnerships’ describes reducing pressure on their HCS forest area. our own concessions, but have little control how companies, communities and governments on the land outside of them. Effecting must jointly cooperate to achieve food security, Results and achievements conservation at the level of the landscape will livelihood improvements and conservation To date, we have rolled out Participatory require firm commitments – including financing within a landscape. Mapping (PM) in 67 villages across 13 – from government, civil society and the global GAR worked with four villages in West concessions and carried out PCP in 10 villages private sector. Kalimantan, Indonesia to conserve HCS areas. across West Kalimantan, securing community The villages rejected our conservation proposal agreement to set aside over 7,000 hectares of UNA-UK thanks Golden Agri-Resources outright, unaware of its importance while of HCS forests for conservation. Keeping in mind for its generous support for Climate 2020 CLIMATE 2020 to tackle climate change will becritical to taking theevidence-based actionsneeded Making better useofthevast amountsofdata atourdisposal Knowing what to do 96 RESULTS

P Development Data (GPSDD) exists to Development Data (GPSDD)existsto cooperation isitssaviour. threat toourplanetandpeople, then cooperation. Ifselfishnessisthe greatest to take.Bothrequirenewforms of and theinformationtoknowwhat actions things: apoliticaldecisiontotakeaction, to thehumangenome”. “evolution hasinbuiltgreedandaggression Sustainable Development Data Development, GlobalPartnership for Aditya Agrawal, Director, Data Ecosystems By The Global Partnership for Sustainable The GlobalPartnershipforSustainable Tackling climatechangerequirestwo Claire Melamed,Executive Director, and climate change, saying that he fears climate change,sayingthathefears 75th birthdaywithastarkwarningon rofessor StephenHawkingmarkedhis

Residents of Houston, USA, seek safety from the the essential information, and too many of floods caused by Tropical Storm Harvey. Often data the skills to analyse that information, that is on risk exists but either goes unanalysed or unheeded. In most countries, insurance companies have a better the basis for good policy-making. knowledge of flood risk than government Climate change and extreme weather events do not respect manmade borders, so a unified response remains vital. The foster the cooperation to drive better contribution of carbon into the atmosphere information. We live in a world that varies dramatically from developed to Also in this section produces more data than ever before. But developing countries, where the impact this does not mean that it is available – at will affect the poor and marginalised first. the right time and in the right format – to To better account for these variations, solve the critical challenges of our time. as well as the effects, impact and Earth’s ecosystems 102 Focusing on data might seem a diversion, a responsiveness of potential solutions, we distraction from the real business of policy need data to inform action and decision- and politics. But data is part of the critical making. Also essential are broad education Water security 106 infrastructure for policymaking, without and outreach programmes to engage which change is less likely. citizens on what they can do to help Climate and mitigate against climate change. conflict 110 Data coordination leaves nowhere to hide Until information is improved, we will be A common understanding of the facts is fighting climate change with blindfolds on. the basis for political coalition and popular Sustainable support, which are prerequisites for action. There is unprecedented information food supply 114 This is painfully evident in the area of about the world – will we use it? climate change – where the basic facts, The world of data has been transformed uncontested by an overwhelming majority over the last two decades. It used to be of the world’s experts, are still being mainly public bodies and a few academic challenged by an ideological few. institutions that were chiefly responsible Despite an overwhelming amount of for the collection, curation and use of data. evidence from scientists and researchers Every department of every government around the world agreeing on the role around the world is still collecting and using of humans in increasing the effects of data. In many cases, they are doing this climate change, this topic still remains more than ever before, as the ambitions of highly political. Better data alone cannot governments to provide universal services overcome ideological divisions. But a better and to reach their far-flung populations understanding of the data and the story it have grown over time. is telling the world will help to build the Now, they have been joined by many political momentum for change. It will others. Thanks to dramatic technological also reduce the hiding places for those who changes with which we are all familiar, vast would deny what is happening to our planet. quantities of data are created and held by Data is also essential for defining institutions of all types and sizes. Companies priorities for action. Governments have hold millions of data points created by the to know what industries and activities are phones we all carry in our pockets every the major sources of emissions in their day and by the hundreds of satellites that fly countries to decide how to design the right over us, photographing the world as they combination of regulations, tax and subsidy go. Grassroots organisations in every corner policies to reduce them. They have to know of the world hold unique records of how how climate change is affecting rainfall and people live and how they are responding to soil quality in different parts of the country the challenges of climate change. to decide how to support those who are Yet this highly useful information is not already feeling the effects. And they have readily available to the people tasked with to know if the policies they implement are fighting climate change. Imagine being a working, or if a change of course is needed. policy-maker of a nation seeking to address Too many governments lack too much of climate change and knowing that the

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owners of the most popular phone network working to harness the data revolution broker partnerships to access data that is know more about your fellow citizens for sustainable development and climate relevant to climate and resilience planning than you do. Satellites that are positioned action. Our member organisations include – such as earth observation data, including over your country are capturing minute- governments, companies, civil-society satellite data on weather and sensors on soil by-minute information on deforestation, groups, international organisations, and plants. shifting seasons, urbanisation – but you academic institutions, foundations, statistics However, having a clear understanding of do not have access to that info. Insurance agencies and other data communities. the data ecosystem – in terms of what data companies operating in your country have To succeed in the fight against climate exists where, who is doing what, and key better flood maps than your ministry. change, government agencies need to roles and responsibilities on data production Unlocking this information for the be working together through a multi- and use – is often lacking, or fragmented public good would facilitate huge leaps in stakeholder approach inclusive of civil at best. countries’ capacities for resilience-planning society and the private sector. Aligning frameworks that have a data- and climate responses. The GPSDD is currently working with reporting requirement – whether this a number of governments – including be international, national development The data system needs coordination and Colombia, the Philippines, Ghana, Sierra priorities, or existing data programmes such efficiency Leone, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and as open data, spatial data infrastructure, The GPSDD is a growing network of the US – on ‘data roadmaps’ that adopt e-governance or official statistics – offers over 250 organisations around the world this inclusive approach. Countries can an approach for better coordination and efficiency, as well as reducing redundancy. In return, a better understanding of the From eco-warriors to data ecosystem warriors data ecosystem can be gained, including Of the two elements needed to fight climate change – political action and information understanding where the gaps exist. (to know what actions to take) – the former understandably dominates the headlines. The Once this data ecosystem is better Trump administration’s formal notification to the United Nations of its intention to pull out understood, the distinct roles and of the Paris Agreement has been a galvanising moment for many. Yet the threat of climate responsibilities across government fatigue persists, even as the stories about bushfires and bleached coral pile up. agencies, and how civil society and Readers of these stories can contribute to political action by lobbying, protesting and private sector can better engage, become advocating for climate action. They can also call for a climate movement underpinned by clearer. This understanding will also help the best and most recent information available on our planet and its people. to identify what actions are needed to fill Admittedly, one’s first thought upon reading about the melting permafrost may not be: these gaps and how to partner with regional “How can I contribute to a better climate data ecosystem?” But addressing climate data and international organisations that can gaps will maximise the impact of work to combat climate change. support political, technical, capacity and The following can help make data available to guide climate action: financial challenges. ●● Being an advocate for facts-based climate information: Every region is experiencing For example, in Ghana, a Sustainable rapid transformations as a result of climate change. We need to track and respond to Development Goals (SDGs) emerging realities. This needs investment in data and a commitment to opening data up Implementation Coordination Committee – it will not happen without public pressure. has been established to develop a multi- ●● Sharing more information: Many of us working in government, think tanks, UN agencies stakeholder approach to putting the and elsewhere don’t think to share the data we have collated. Often this is because no SDGs into practice. This includes key one has yet asked us to share it – or perhaps because cleaning it up and putting it out government institutions, civil society and there seems somewhat daunting. Yet by pushing our organisations to be more open we the private sector. can support the data revolution at a grassroots level. In Sierra Leone, the same approach is ●● Encouraging the public sector and NGOs to harness the creativity of data scientists: being applied but through a pre-existing Some of the greatest minds of our generation are spending their days teaching fridges body, the Open Data Council. In each case, to obey human requests to restock milk and orange juice. Engaging talented technicians a data ecosystem mapping effort is being and data scientists to help deliver solutions to the greatest challenge humankind has undertaken to better understand what data ever faced requires investment in capacity – as well as breaking down bureaucratic silos exists and where. More specifically, it will between agencies and sectors. reveal gaps, which can then be prioritised ●● Talking to each other: If selfishness threatens humanity, cooperation can save it. There for investment and partnerships. are hundreds of communities of practice that tend to operate fairly independently. Let’s share and overcome common challenges. We need to connect with each other, convene Opening data sets can help countries the best minds and catalyse solutions to all our problems from the ground up. meet the Paris Agreement The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen

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Land and ocean temperature percentiles Jan-Jun 2017

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Data source: GHCN-M version 3.3.0 & ERSST version 4.0.0

the global response to the threat of climate in that member countries will prioritise citizens – who may want to hold their change. It seeks to keep global temperature global needs over national self-interest. It governments accountable or use the data rise this century to under 2°C above pre- also requires countries to monitor, report to further innovate and determine more industrial levels and to limit temperature and verify climate actions, most significantly local actions – likely do not know where increases even further where possible. around greenhouse gas emissions. the data exists and how it can be accessed, Coupled with the SDGs, launched Transparency is inherent in the Paris if at all. in 2015, and the intended nationally Agreement. This guiding principle Given current political trends and the determined contributions under the UN of transparency is designed to make increased rate at which climate change is Framework Convention on Climate data publicly available – allowing any occurring, it has never been more important Change, there are plenty of instruments in organisation to examine the data, analyse to make climate data more available in place to support how governments, civil- it and advocate for change as necessary. useful formats. This would allow a range of society organisations and the private sector As a result, the absence of comprehensive actors across sectors to better understand can reduce their impact on climate change. open climate data will make it difficult for climate trends, and develop solutions and However, climate data is often countries to meet their commitments under policies that work. incomplete, fragmented across agencies, the Paris Agreement. The Open Government Partnership, or not made openly accessible or available Governments likely either do not International Open Data Charter and in interoperable formats. These factors understand the demand for climate data, national and sub-national open-data limit how data can be applied, and therefore or may not be able to make the data programmes offer an opportunity to how policy and decision-making can be openly accessible due to weak mandates implement solutions based on international better informed. or incentives, political issues or lack of commitments and allow new platforms The Paris Agreement depends on capacity. On the demand side, other and technology to rapidly disseminate international cooperation and mutual trust, organisations, private-sector bodies and climate data.

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ASI Case study: climate observation from space Data gathered from space provides invaluable insight into the causes and impacts of climate change

ce is one of the many wonders of our Earth. and oceans. Using Earth observation monitoring, polar ice and agricultural and If you have ever trekked on a stunning glacier technology in the battle against climate change forestry resources; and urban control in the Alps or Alaska, you will have had the is very important to Italy. We are proud that the of buildings. feeling of walking on an immense reservoir. Italian COSMO-SkyMed constellation is now In recent months, international political IBut glaciers also act as ancient and precious celebrating its 10th anniversary. debate on environmental policies has become mines of information, allowing us to understand The constellation represents truly cutting- more uncertain and complicated. This is despite their evolution over millions of years. edge technology. Funded by the Italian Space the ever-increasing danger signs about the Thanks to the SAR (synthetic aperture Agency (ASI) in partnership with the Ministry fragile status of our planet. radar) technology of the COSMO-SkyMed of Defence, COSMO-SkyMed is built and run satellite programme, we can see the by the Italian space industry – namely, Leonardo Tipping points extraordinary patterns that glaciers form. and its joint ventures with Thales, Thales Alenia In 2016 scientists warned that the increasingly Fragmented with brilliant and unnatural colours, Space and Telespazio. rapid melting of the ice cap risks triggering 19 they resemble Cubist landscapes conjured from It is the first system of its kind designed for ‘tipping points’ in the Arctic that could have the brushes of a Braque or Picasso. both civil and military use. Its many applications disastrous consequences around the world. The polar regions are extremely important include: land and sea security; prevention and These tipping points occur when a natural in terms of their global impact on weather, management of natural or man-made disasters; system, such as a polar ice cap, undergoes climate and the circulation of the atmosphere providing data on climate change, coastal sudden or overwhelming change that has 101

ASI

of the 50 fundamental variables for climate 26 analysis are observable by satellites

Left: Lhonak glacier in the Himalayas. The lake formed from its melt waters is very vulnerable, with a high potential to cause devastating floods Right: icebergs formed from the Pine Island glacier, Antarctica. Different colours show the movement of icebergs over an eight-day period profound – and often irreversible – effects on surfaces, complementing the most accurate freshwater reservoir for the Arctic Ocean, and surrounding ecosystems. aerial and on-site observations. It can provide has a potential impact on the entire Atlantic In political debate it is important to keep in critical information about the extension of the Ocean. Measuring this important current is mind the scientific data that must guide us in icy surface, and of the shape and movements of done through a boom system and through the analysing problems and choosing solutions. the ice cap. COSMO-SkyMed is also a powerful observations made by the COSMO-SkyMed The good news is that 26 of the 50 fundamental tool for measuring glacier motion, as it can satellites. Analysing the data is critical to variables for climate analysis are observable perform multiple observations over a short time predicting climatic and meteorological by satellites. frame and from different visual angles. dynamics and to understanding changes to For several years, COSMO-SkyMed Two recent examples illustrate the potential some of the Earth’s fundamental equilibria. data – processed by e-GEOS, an ASI (20%)/ of the technology. The European Commission’s Responding to the data requests of polar Telespazio (80%) company – has been widely Earth observation programme, Copernicus scientists and from the Polar Space Task Group, used to provide in-depth analysis of the polar – which includes the COSMO-SkyMed and ASI will continue to promote polar research regions, the most important ‘climate controllers’ Sentinel satellites – has taken images of two and development through an open call process, of the Earth. However, Arctic regions also offer large icebergs that have detached from the based on the needs of users. But whatever opportunities for those seeking to commercially Nansen Antarctic ice platform. the needs are, scientific or commercial, the exploit the Earth’s natural resources. The Combining different types of images information we are gathering will be crucial to melting of ice has inevitably made this easier. gathered from satellites Sentinel-2A (optical defining the next environmental policies, and Real-time information on sea-ice conditions imaging), Sentinel-1A (radar imaging) and to achieving a greater understanding of our is essential for all operations in ice-covered COSMO-SkyMed, the National Committee precious planet. areas. The safety and efficiency of sea for Research has been able to study the transportation, offshore operations, fisheries phenomenon since 2013. and other activities in these regions require high-resolution ice forecasts. Marine drift Earth observation (and in particular SAR Another study concerns the monitoring of the technology) is a reliable tool for monitoring icy drift of marine ice across the western Fram Strait, located between the Svalbard islands Opposite, far left: the coast of Greenland, and Greenland. Here the East Greenland artificially coloured to highlight ice floes on the sea Current carries more than 90 per cent of the Left: July 2017, a trillion-tonne iceberg, twice the size of Luxembourg, breaks off the Larsen ice marine ice that flows south from the Arctic. UNA-UK thanks Agenzia Spaziale Italiana for its shelf in Antarctica The current therefore serves as the main generous support for Climate 2020 102 RESULTS

The impact on life on Earth

How is climate change disrupting our planet’s ecosystems and human societies?

By Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair, Working thermal range. As a consequence, the Group II, Intergovernmental Panel on distributions of organisms in both aquatic Climate Change (IPCC) and terrestrial realms follow the shifts in their preferred temperatures – mostly from he world’s climate is changing. lower to higher latitudes, leading to the The mean surface temperature of mixing of ecosystems and a projected loss in Tthe globe has already warmed, on biodiversity. average, by about 1°C when compared In parallel, some areas previously to the estimated pre-industrial average. available for growing certain crops will Examples of climate change range from become unsuitable in the future. Depending shifts in weather patterns and climate on the degree of global warming that characteristics (such as patterns of rainfall will occur, crop productivity – as well as or snowfall) to the increasing intensity of fisheries, aquaculture productivity and food droughts, heatwaves and storms – on top of security for humankind overall – is projected the rise in mean temperature. to decline. In several parts of the world, particularly Such pressures exist for all organisms: over land masses and in polar regions, not only for animals, plants and their the degree of warming exceeds the global average. Warming is especially strong in the Arctic and is also developing in the It is becoming increasingly Antarctic. Melting glaciers and polar ice sheets are causing sea levels to rise. likely that the global Given the present observations and rates average sea level will rise of change, and comparisons to similarly warm palaeo periods, it is becoming beyond that previously increasingly likely that the global average projected for 2100 sea level will rise beyond that previously Images via Getty Aid/In Pictures/Corbis Action © Gideon Mendel For projected for 2100. Climate change is causing increasingly ecosystems, but also for humans and their humidity, which hampers the temperature severe and pervasive impacts. These have societies, despite humans’ wider scope for regulation of the human body. Particularly become evident in human societies and behavioural and technical adaptability. at low latitudes, humid heat makes some ecosystems on all continents, as well as Temperature extremes – such as the places increasingly unpleasant, if not in all oceans. A prominent example is increasing frequency of heatwaves – are uninhabitable. Here, humans increasingly the progressive demise of warm water threatening plants and animals (including rely on technical solutions such as air coral reefs due to repeated exposure to humans). They are already having an impact conditioning to provide comfort zones temperatures which are too high, combined on various regions and causing an increase where they can live and work, albeit by with other human-induced stressors. in mortality. becoming isolated from the outdoors. The Ecosystem impacts are largely characterised Like all organisms, humans have limits capacity for outdoor work in hot and humid by the displacement of organisms through to the temperatures they can tolerate and climates, therefore, becomes increasingly exposure to temperatures outside of their function in. Limits are lowest at high constrained.

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Human life and livelihoods, as well as redistributed disease vectors and associated Building an earth barrier to protect Jhanghara the ecosystems on which they depend, are illnesses in formerly unaffected areas. village, Pakistan, from floods that affected 20 million people across the country in 2010, also vulnerable to other environmental destroying some 1.8 million homes extremes such as drought or floods. Among Evolutionary crises humans, the very young and elderly are the Carbon dioxide (CO2), as a key driver of most vulnerable, while poverty increases the climate change, accumulates in both the built by sensitive marine calcifiers such direct exposure of humans to environmental oceans and the atmosphere. In the oceans, it as bivalves, echinoderms or corals, and extremes and risks. Nonetheless, extremes undergoes a chemical reaction that acidifies hampers their ability to repair or build new such as heatwaves are causing an increase the water. Ocean acidification is progressing ones. The accumulating CO2 penetrates in human mortality in both developed and in parallel to rising atmospheric CO2 the organism’s body and can result in developing countries. What’s more, climate concentrations. The acidification dissolves disturbances of life-sustaining processes, and change also creates human exposure to calcium carbonate shells and structures can elicit behavioural changes in animals.

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There are other effects, too. Rising CO2 the low availability of uncolonised territory 10,000 years will have major implications levels can lead to more vigorous growth in and associated resources may increase for all life on Earth. plant life in the oceans (as well as on land). conflict and make human civilisation Many insights provided by the natural Warming can cause oceans to become more vulnerable to climatic changes and sciences have shaped human civilisation and stratified, preventing the mixing of water associated economic losses. technologies. In similar ways, climate change between upper and lower layers, and can The oceans have an important role in and its impacts have become part of our stimulate the oxygen demand of organisms. maintaining temperatures within a tolerable reality everywhere. A puzzling development At low latitudes both processes can combine range on land. Oceans absorb more than is that some high-level policymakers appear to create an expansion of isolated water 90 per cent of the heat accumulated by the to believe that they can choose to ignore bodies at intermediate depths that are planet and minimise temperature shifts and unequivocal scientific evidence about climate naturally characterised by low oxygen variability. For example, the Gulf Stream – a change. While ignoring reality is not without levels. The result is that these waters can crucial driver of the gigantic conveyor belt precedent in human history, the available increasingly lose animal life. of global ocean currents – may be seen as evidence tells us that the global climate These findings illustrate that life on part of this climate conditioning system and system is changing and that the planet Earth – especially complex, ‘higher’ life as a thermostat for the North Atlantic and is warming. What’s more, the evidence forms such as plants and animals (including Europe predominantly. Temperatures are shows that it is humankind causing these humans and their societies) – relies on maintained in a pleasant range: temperature changes and the associated impacts, through ambient temperatures being maintained extremes are alleviated. emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases at low-enough atmospheric CO2 levels. The Gulf Stream has not only shaped to the atmosphere. Further, the evolution of life, especially of climatic zones in Europe and neighbouring We can say with very high certainty that higher life forms, could only occur because seas, but also the associated communities the various measurements, observations and microbial life on our planet has generated of plants and animals that are specialised projections provide a factual and realistic and is supporting high-enough oxygen levels in the atmosphere and water. The fact that our planet has provided We can say with very high certainty that the various the ‘right’ temperatures and high-enough measurements, observations and projections provide a oxygen levels has, in fact, enabled the evolution of complex animals and plants. factual and realistic picture of the present and the future. Conversely, temperature extremes, oxygen Denying climate change is equivalent to ignoring reality losses and high CO2 levels have contributed to evolutionary crises during Earth’s history and have shaped the direction of for these zones. This includes the marine picture of both the present and the future. evolutionary changes. ecosystems of the Atlantic as well as their Denying climate change is thus equivalent fisheries’ productivity. On land, mild to ignoring reality. As much as voters cannot Major implications temperatures and the balanced distribution vote on climate change, policymakers Over the last 10,000 years or so of stable of precipitation support green landscapes cannot make the reality of climate change climate conditions, human civilisation has and high yields in agriculture. The Gulf subject to their approval. They also cannot progressed to make humans – the most Stream circulation has also shaped the choose to ignore the fact that human successful mammalian species – capable of history and cultural evolution of humankind livelihoods and ecosystems are being sustaining high population densities on most in Africa and Europe. harmed, or that human lives are being lost continents. At the same time, the building While the Gulf Stream appears as a due to climate change. We need collective of human infrastructure has predominantly given, it is responsive to small changes action, even if some might consider such occurred in coastal and low-lying areas, in environmental conditions – for action to be precautionary. leading to the prevalence of megacities example, the changing heat budget of The sixth assessment cycle of the IPCC (cities of more than 10 million people) in the oceans under conditions of climatic will assess our growing knowledge base coastal regions, which are now challenged change. The apparent instability and further. But what is already very clear is by progressive sea-level rises. projected weakening of the Gulf Stream that only by keeping climate change within Human history also shows us how given climate change is a concern: the narrow limits – such as those agreed in Paris climate-related events – such as droughts, Gulf Stream is a crucial driver of global in 2015 – will we be able to build a better crop failure and pest infestation – can lead ocean circulation, supports the health and more prosperous and sustainable future to population displacement and conflict. As of sustainable ecosystems, and human for humankind and the world’s ecosystems, climate-induced human migration has been wellbeing. The loss of the stable climate as outlined in the UN Sustainable projected (and may already have started), that our planet has enjoyed for the last Development Goals.

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Will you stand with us?

To support our work, visit www.una.org.uk/donate 106 RESULTS

By Sofia Widforss, former Programme Manager, International Policy, Will there be enough? Stockholm International Water Institute eports from the UN Refugee Water is essential for human life – but it’s also critical for Agency (UNHCR) show how economic stability, global security, and climate change Rcommunities are already suffering from the consequences of climate change. mitigation and adaptation Families are being forced to migrate as their homes are destroyed and already scarce drinking water sources become limited and contaminated. Natural disasters often hit the most vulnerable and poor.

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Drying fish on the shores of Lake Turkana, northern resources, and existing gender inequalities, Kenya. The lake has receded in recent years leading such as limited ability to own land, increases to diminished fish stocks and forcing its dependent communities into territorial conflict women’s burden of climate change-induced consequences. Rising water scarcity and variability does not only pose risks to our lives and environmental or climate refugees by livelihoods but also to global security. The 2050. According to the UN Office for 2016 World Bank report High and Dry: Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), Climate Change, Water, and the Economy water and climate disasters account for warns that water scarcity, intensified by nearly 95 per cent of people affected by climate change, might “hinder economic disasters, and have caused over 60 per cent growth, spur migration, and spark conflict”. of all damage worldwide. Climate change is believed to have In recent years, water crises have been added fuel to the fire in many conflicts, ranked as high risks for societies by experts from Darfur to Somalia, and Iraq to and global decision-makers, both in terms Syria. Given the urgency and gravity of likelihood and impact (as presented of the risks associated with climate and in the World Economic Forum Global water change, we must improve disaster Risks reports). prevention and ensure that responses are Global warming increases stress on aligned with needs. already scarce water sources. Increased In the aftermath of the triumphant temperatures have altered rainfall patterns, signing of the UN Sustainable

Rising water scarcity and variability does not only pose risks to our lives and livelihoods but also to global security

caused rivers and lakes to dry up and Development Goals (SDGs) and the glaciers to melt, creating the risk of Paris Agreement, we need to acknowledge flooding. Sea-level rise does not only pose a what delivering on these ambitions will physical threat to coastal communities, but entail. With manifold complex challenges, also leads to increasing risks for salt water there is a risk that the ambitions illustrated intrusion of coastal aquifers, putting further in Agenda 2030, in the Sendai Framework strain on vulnerable freshwater resources. for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the Himalayan glaciers feed great Asian rivers Paris Agreement end up as paper tigers such as the Yangtze, Ganges, Mekong and – instead of being implemented through Indus. Over a billion people rely on these much-needed, coordinated programmes

© Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty Images Karumba/AFP/Getty © Tony glaciers for drinking water, sanitation, and projects. agriculture and hydroelectric power. For example, the SDG target to achieve In the past decade, an annual average Water scarcity, aggravated by climate universal and equitable access to safe and of 21.5 million people have been forcibly change, also poses a threat to food security. affordable drinking water for all by 2030 displaced by weather-related hazards Crops and livestock are unlikely to survive requires committed action. Today, 663 – floods, storms, wildfires and extreme in certain locations if weather conditions million people lack access to drinking water temperature. Both slow and rapid-onset alter too much. As so often, women are from an ‘improved’ source. disasters – such as the droughts in Somalia disproportionately affected. Women are UNICEF figures suggest that only in 2011 and 2012, and floods in Pakistan the primary producers of food globally and two thirds of the world’s population have between 2010 and 2012 – left huge numbers make up most agricultural workers in many access to ‘improved’ sanitation. Without of people without clean water, shelter and countries. This means they are hit harder by sanitation, there is no alternative but to basic supplies. irregularities in precipitation due to climate defecate in the open. Access to safe water Globally, according to the International change as they rely on rain-fed agriculture. and sanitation is a question of human Organization for Migration, an estimated The combination of food insecurity, dignity. It also has implications for gender 200 million are at risk of becoming shortage of and reduced access to water equality. When girls do not attend school

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because their personal hygiene cannot be and distribution challenges, resource contamination. In parallel, the means maintained or they need to stay home to efficiency and reuse are key factors to to regulate water scarcity, including fetch water, their potential as productive achieving sustainability. desalination, are very energy intensive. To members of society is jeopardised. This transport larger volumes of water across directly hinders sustainable development. Interdependent objectives longer distances will increase the energy Competing demands between water Everything is connected. Recognising the intensity in water provision as the hydraulic users call for smart water management interdependence of different objectives infrastructure requires energy input. Thus, and governance to ensure that resources will allow us to identify co-benefits when if we understand the underlying water– are allocated in a fair way. Approximately implementing climate or development climate logic, the risk of fragmented and 70 per cent of all water abstracted from policies and plans. Water is critical for thus failed interventions and investments rivers, lakes and aquifers is used for climate change mitigation by reducing will be avoided. irrigation. Valuing irrigation in times of greenhouse gas emissions, since many fossil- Moreover, through the vital role that drought will require trade-offs between free energy sources rely on dependable ecosystems often play in improving food production and other societal water- access to water. freshwater storage for flood and drought demanding needs. For instance, hydropower needs control, safeguarding water resources is, Unfortunately, waste is often found at stable flows; biofuel production requires together with sustainable forestry, perhaps the end of the chain of water-intensive water; and carbon capture and storage is the most promising of adaptation measures. production. Therefore, on top of allocation water-intensive and risks groundwater Replenishing groundwater storage and refilling reservoirs enhances the resilience of the surrounding ecosystems, thereby Facing water issues in manuFacturing reducing the vulnerability to populations facing climate change-related risks. ater consumption is one of an inclusive, sustainable and resilient The known and still unknown negative the main challenges facing future for people and planet”, in impacts that a changing climate combined Wenvironmentally friendly accordance with the United Nations with water scarcity and variability bring industrial manufacturing. Sustainable Development Goals. on humanity are too destructive to not be Sofidel – the second largest tissue The pledge to improve hygiene and prioritised. Freshwater is our most precious company in Europe and the sixth sanitation in developing countries led resource. Despite this, we do not protect worldwide – has made water issues to a three-year partnership with it. Properly valuing water and other one of the crucial pillars in its own WaterAid, an NGO whose mission is ecosystem services will contribute environmental sustainability strategy. It to ensure safe water and sanitation to to accuracy and fairness in allocating is committed to responsibly managing everyone, everywhere by 2030. This existing resources. Proactively requiring the resource, highlighting its relevance contributes to UN SDG 6 on clean water compliance and resource efficiency in terms of hygiene and well-being and and sanitation. throughout the entire supply chain, instead raising awareness among the company’s As of today, the issue is particularly of waiting for consumer-driven demand, stakeholders. relevant in less developed countries, will bring benefits – including potential The aim of reducing water with 663 million people that still economic advantages. consumption is pursued both through don’t have access to safe water, and We, as global citizens, are the patrons management measures and specific 2.4 billion people that have no place of our societies. We are the agents of investments. Moreover, the use of water to go to the toilet. This means that change in shaping our vision and making at Sofidel paper mills is monitored in otherwise-preventable diseases can the future bright, blue and green. It is up real time through a dedicated dashboard spread: according to WHO and UNICEF, to us to adapt our behaviours, production – the efficiency of water flow is a a child under five dies every two minutes and consumption patterns to support significant parameter in the company’s because of this lack of clean water, liveable societies. worker incentive system. sanitation and hygiene. The global agreements have encouraged As a whole, this commitment has led www.sofidel.com novel approaches, illustrating the major Sofidel to achieve significant results, with challenges ahead to set inclusive and an average use of water per kilogramme sustainable development trajectories. of paper produced of 7.0 l/kg, compared But they also carry a basket of carrots to the industry’s benchmark of 15-25 l/kg. with opportunities for governments, Sofidel’s responsibility goes beyond authorities, city and business leaders, production impacts, aiming at “building regulators and practitioners to wisely execute the needed responses.

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ANEAS Increasing resilience to climate variability and change

exico, through the National Water Commission (Conagua) and the National Association of Water and Sanitation Utilities of Mexico M(ANEAS), in cooperation with the World Water Council (WWC), has developed a programme called: “Increasing resilience to climate variability and change: the roles of infrastructure and governance in the context of adaptation”. A scientific book with the same title has also been published. The book presents 11 case studies that document successful adaptation efforts in projects, basins and regions around the world. These analyse how the water sector can provide valuable solutions to the challenges posed by climate variability and change through sound water infrastructure and adaptive water management. Among the key messages emerging from these studies is the need to close the scientific knowledge gap in this particular field, since The studies show that water infrastructure these studies show that infrastructure can must have a multipurpose use to meet significantly contribute to building resilience to growing water demands for agricultural, climate change. industrial, energy and domestic use. However, multipurpose water infrastructure raises Improved governance specific financing problems, in addition to those However, infrastructure alone is not enough to generic to water. increase resilience, as it must be coupled The figures involved are typically with appropriate management and large, some components are not governance approaches aligned to financially profitable under strict local contexts in order to be market conditions, a large number effective. These approaches of different actors are affected, need to be planned and managed there are many competing users, within a governance framework and conflicts often arise about that takes into account long-term priorities between them. perspectives and multi-sector It also points out that and multi-level actor needs and for a long time water has been perspectives. a neglected and marginalised Resilience to flood disasters will require sector in the discussion of properly maintained infrastructure through public policies for sustainable growth and coordinated management, crisis prevention development. capacity, as well as coordinated actions This lack of attention is most pronounced and a pragmatic approach to future and dangerous in infrastructure, where there is uncertainties such as climate change. Finally, inadequate resilience to climate change. governance will need to be improved in order to implement fundamental changes and help for Much of this collection is freely available on the UNA-UK thanks ANEAS for its post-disaster recovery. WWC website: www.worldwatercouncil.org generous support for Climate 2020 110 RESULTS

By Fred Carver, Head of Policy, United As the Sahel Nations Association – UK he UN deploys peacekeepers to 15 locations around the world. becomes Sahara TEight of those missions, including the five largest ones, exist in a belt across northern sub-Saharan Africa: in Western What happens when habitable land is lost? What Sahara, in Liberia, in Mali, in the Central can be done to alleviate the consequences? African Republic (CAR), in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in Darfur, in Abyei and in South Sudan. Collectively these missions represent over 80 per cent of the UN’s budget and personnel for peacekeeping and, as a consequence, the lion’s share of the UN’s

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UN peacekeepers from Rwanda patrol the city of subtly different purposes. Political missions Gao in northern Mali. The presence of peacekeepers may be able to substitute for peacekeeping in the country has probably prevented genocide when it comes to preventing a return to war, but that is increasingly a secondary purpose of modern missions. grievances, as inequality shifts from being a matter of justice to one of future security, Lessons learned and potentially one of existence. States’ When it comes to ‘peacebuilding’ – the confidence in economic growth and stability reconstruction of sustainable mechanisms falters, and they seek out the plunder and and infrastructure for a long-term reduction insider unity that conflict brings. in violence – and the prevention of Meanwhile apocalyptic cults (in Congo atrocities, there is no obvious substitute for and Mali) and secessionist groups (in UN peacekeeping missions. CAR and the Sudans) alike become more The record of UN peacekeepers on both appealing, as the disincentives to instability fronts is mixed but improving. A recent become less readily apparent. Young men study by the Rand Corporation, The UN’s (and increasingly women too) with less Role in Nation-Building, found that UN to lose and less to farm see fewer reasons peacekeepers outperform unilateral and/ not to take up arms. Much as Bambang or military interventions when it comes to Susantono has argued in his article on Asia state-building. (see page 48), in northern sub-Saharan As for preventing atrocities, peacekeeping Africa global warming hasn’t yet directly has learned the lessons of Rwanda and caused wars, but it has provided a more Srebrenica rather better than its political hospitable climate for them. masters. Modern missions have the mandate It is a phenomenon that could well creep and resources those missions lacked. What yet further south. Northern Nigeria and the they don’t always have is a Security Council greater Lake Chad basin, Eritrea and Kenya with the foresight to deploy them ahead of have all demonstrated the existence of risk the outbreak of violence. factors identified in the UN’s framework of Granted, the record is far from flawless. analysis for atrocity crimes. It seems likely Too often, Member States fail to provide the therefore that the stresses on the UN’s UN with sufficiently trained and equipped peace and security apparatus are only going troops. The UN internal investigation into to increase, particularly in this region. Yet violence in Juba in 2016 found that a force at the same time powerful forces, led by but of some 19,000 peacekeepers were unable not limited to the United States, are keen to protect civilians from atrocity crimes

© Marco Dormino/UN Photo Dormino/UN © Marco to reduce the size, scope and, notably, costs that took place just one mile from their associated with UN peacekeeping. base, yet a small handful of private security overall investment in peace and security contractors were. Why? What makes this particular crescent Peacebuilding initiatives A few hundred willing and capable troops of the world so particularly in need of the Thus far the Secretary-General has been could perform a more useful function than UN’s resources and attention? looking for the solution ‘upstream’. By many thousands of peacekeepers who lack There are, of course, a multitude of investing in mediation and pre-emptive the skills or motivation, and would also be reasons in each case and in no single instance peacebuilding initiatives, such as enhanced a good deal cheaper. However, elite troops was climate change the primary cause. and strengthened political missions, he with the skillset required to perform this However, it is certainly a contributory factor is hoping to reduce the need for future role are in short supply. Many hail from common to every single situation. expensive peacekeeping missions. This logic nations who have not been enthusiastic In recent years drought, desertification is sound, and were the situation static such an about volunteering them for UN duty. and soil loss have seen the Sahara creep approach would doubtless be effective. But as Nevertheless, UN peacekeepers have, south into the Sahel, and the Sahel in turn the Sahel turns into the Sahara he may find in all probability, prevented genocide in creep south into the Sudanian Savanna. these efforts going against a tide of sand. CAR and Mali, and significantly reduced Scarcity has followed, exacerbating Additionally, mediation and political the number and nature of atrocity crimes in existing power imbalances and providing missions are not a like-for-like replacement many other countries. Few missions have an incentive to act upon longstanding to peacekeeping. The approaches serve come in for as much criticism as UNAMID

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– the joint African Union and UN mission to Darfur – and yet even in Darfur the United Nations Peacekeeping operations in Africa value of the mission is clear. As a teacher in North Darfur told Waging Peace in a report UN UNA-UK co-authored: “The bottom line is that the force can still manage to save some 472 lives and protect some of the population 1 UN from rape and torture, as well as report 14,321 UN atrocities.” Another Darfuri, in conversation 19,685 with the International Refugee Rights 2 UN Initiative, was even more succinct and gave UN them the title for their report: “No one on 5 4,769 1,622 UN the Earth cares if we survive except God and UN UN 6 sometimes UNAMID.” 13,633 15,991 Peacekeeping should therefore continue 3 4 395 to play a role in the region for some time 7 8 to come, and we would do well to maintain UN a sense of perspective about the cost. Around $7 billion a year may seem like a 22,283 lot, but it represents just 0.5 per cent of 9 total military spending globally. It pales into insignificance when compared to the other costs of what broadly should be considered 1 MINURSO 4 UNOCI 7 MINUSCA climate change adaptation and mitigation. Western Sahara Côte D’Ivoire Central African Republic 2 MINUSMA 5 UNAMID 8 UNMISS Smoothing the transition? Mali Darfur South Sudan But is peacekeeping a tool for adaptation? 3 UNMIL 6 UNISFA 9 MONUSCO Partly it depends on what we need to adapt Liberia Abyei Democratic Rep. of Congo to. If the Paris Agreement is successful then Figures show total personnel, civilian, police and military for June 2017. UNAMID is an African Union-UN hybrid operation. temperatures will rise by about 2°C over Source: United Nations Department of Public Information, in consultation with the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, the next 80 years and then hold steady. In Department of Field Support and Department of Management the short term that would see desertification continue and increase, and both the Sahara While the latter would require a completely that climate change will bring it will not, and Sahel move southwards. new global politics of migration and by itself, provide a just post-warming In the long term there is no consensus: asylum, and Herculean work by the already settlement for the region. the situation could stabilise with new overstretched UN High Commission for An (expensive) ongoing peacekeeping southern boundaries; or feedback effects Refugees, peacekeeping could provide part of presence or investment in robust institutions could see the region rendered a largely the answer to smoothing out the bumps and may keep the lid on hostilities for a while. uninhabitable extreme desert; or warming tensions of a less radical transition. But as the Sahara grows ever larger, pressure temperatures could see a reversal of the This cannot happen in isolation. will build and tensions will climb ever monsoon cycle and the region actually Conceptually, peacekeepers don’t end higher, eventually reaching bursting point becoming more fertile. If warming cannot conflict. They impose order but, as Stathis along familiar fault lines. This is unless a be held to 2°C then the region is much less Kalyvas has argued, order is not the process of development and, crucially, a likely to remain habitable. opposite of violence but simply a form of more equitable politics enables the creation The UN therefore needs to support the formalised violence. Thus, peacekeeping of a sustainable regional society better able region to go through – at the very least – provides a mechanism for de-escalation by to adapt to a warmer, dustier, future. decades of relative resource scarcity and formalising conflict and so legitimises and Peacekeeping can buy time, and curb the a permanent shift in geographic resource cements post-conflict power relations. But worst excesses of human behaviour. But, allocation (which will lead to political, social if those power relations remain exploitative, in the long term, if desertification is not and cultural tensions, which are likely to spill unjust and unequal then the ingredients for brought to a halt, and if existing resources over into multiple conflicts) and – at most future conflict remain. are not allocated more equitably, then the – the organised evacuation of most of the Peacekeeping is not peacemaking, Sahara will push a wave of conflict before it region (and other parts of the planet to boot). and while it can smooth the transition as it marches southwards.

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iolence, war and poverty are the usual things that spring to mind when we think about the reasons behind the current migration crisis Since the start of our in Europe. These are reasons why someone Vwould leave everything behind and flee their country operations, we have rescued to seek refuge in another. But the impact of climate change is another cause for children and their families to more than 4,000 people, abandon their homes. We should not forget that climate change directly impacts on poverty, the lack of economic over 500 of them children By Andrés Conde opportunities and armed conflict in many countries. CEO, Save the Children Severe droughts brought about by phenomena such Spain as El Niño are depriving many households of the basics, operations. For this reason, at Save the Children, we while their crops are wilting and their livestock perishing. decided to extend our response with our search and Whole families are forced to sell their only assets when rescue ship, the Vos Hestia, to avoid more drownings. scarcity of food and water is the desperate reality. Since the start of our operations, we have rescued According to the UN, there will be between 250 million more than 4,000 people, over 500 of them children. and 1 billion people who will be forced to abandon their The Vos Hestia is the only ship devoted to protecting region or country in the coming 50 years due to climate unaccompanied children. Many of those rescued change, many of them children. are traumatised and need help and support as they For many refugees and forced migrants, the are extremely vulnerable to trafficking, abuse and European coasts hold the key to their future and exploitation. that of their children. Far from being a safe path, the Whatever the motive for their flight, whether it is Mediterranean has now become a cemetery for people war, poverty or climate change, our response remains drowned by desperation and the interests of traffickers. firm: we cannot allow the most vulnerable children to In 2016, the most deadly year so far recorded in the drown in the sea. As a humanitarian organisation we are Mediterranean, more than 5,000 refugees and migrants obliged to protect and save their lives, whether here in lost their lives trying to reach Europe. In the same year, Europe or on their dangerous journey to safety. more than 4,500 children reached Italy from Libyan coasts, over 4,000 of them made the whole journey completely alone. This route is considered to be the most dangerous, children are ten times more likely to die than those crossing from Turkey’s coasts to Greece. So far this year, more than 1,250 people have lost their lives attempting to cross this stretch of water. This UNA-UK thanks Save the Children for its tragedy highlights the real need for search and rescue generous support for Climate 2020 114 RESULTS © Yann Arthus-Bertrand © Yann Feeding a growing population

How can agriculture address this challenge while simultaneously adapting to – and not exacerbating – climate change?

By José Graziano da Silva, Director-General, Climate change and food security Climate change threatens all dimensions UN Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) Climate change threatens to reverse the of food security: availability, access, progress made so far in the fight against stability and utilisation. It affects food am convinced that we can end hunger hunger and malnutrition. As highlighted availability by reducing the productivity and poverty in our lifetime. We have by the Intergovernmental Panel on of crops, livestock and fisheries. It hinders Ithe tools and we have the know-how. Climate Change in its Climate Change 2014 access to food by disrupting the livelihoods However, the goals and aspirations of the Synthesis Report, climate change increases of millions of rural people who rely on 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and intensifies risks to food security and agriculture for their incomes. Farmers, to eliminate hunger and rural poverty nutrition. The most affected are vulnerable pastoralists, fisherfolk and community cannot be achieved if urgent action to populations in arid and semi-arid areas, foresters who depend on activities that combat climate change and its impacts is landlocked countries and small island are directly linked to climate are the ones not taken now. developing states. most affected.

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The Green Dam near Hassi Bahbah, Algeria, a reforestation project started in the 1970s and designed to combat desertification. It spans the full east-west IRELAND’S CommItmENt AND CoLLAboRAtIoN length of the country

national sustainability programme, Origin Green, which commits its current Agriculture will bear the brunt of climate 500+ participating companies and farms change impacts. It will be affected directly to improvements and measurement of by changes in temperature levels and rainfall their sustainability performance. distribution, and indirectly through changes A larger network of agri- to other species such as pollinators, pests, environmental initiatives coupled with disease vectors and invasive species. our focus on scientific research ensures In our report The impact of disasters on and encourages farming practices that agriculture: Addressing the information gap, By Michael Creed TD, underpin our sustainability credentials. the FAO estimates that between 2006 and Minister of the Department of Our ambition to be a leader in 2016, agricultural sectors accounted for 26 Agriculture, Fisheries and Marine sustainable food production requires a per cent of total damage and loss caused sustained collaborative effort. This aim by climate-related extremes in developing Ireland sets a global standard for is shared by the government, farmers countries. These extremes included more sustainable agriculture and food and the food industry in Ireland. In Food severe and frequent weather events, heat production Wise 2025, we embrace collaboration to waves, droughts and sea-level rise. meet the complex challenges and deliver Climate change impacts seriously he provision of food security for the opportunities for environmental compromise food production in countries the world’s growing population and economic sustainability for all our and regions that are already highly food- T in a way that is environmentally stakeholders. insecure. Such findings are evidenced in the sustainable is one of the great challenges The ambition that we can do more latest edition of FAO’s flagship reportThe for agriculture and society. Our natural to advance our goals, such as the state of food and agriculture: Climate change, assets face increased pressure that expansion of Origin Green, is firmly agriculture and food security. Climate change requires a commitment to sustainable embedded in our strategy. I believe in will also have broader impacts through production. Critical to this is also the Ireland’s long-term commitment and effects on trade flows, food markets and security of the environment that protects collaborative approach to improving the price volatility, and could introduce new our natural resources and reduces our environmental footprint of the agri-food risks for human health. emissions and waste. sector. It is an important global example The agri-food sector is the largest of sustainable action in agriculture, Migration challenges and opportunities indigenous industry in Ireland. It food production and environmental Today, as per FAO’s report The future of operates in rural communities to provide protection. food and agriculture – Trends and challenges, sources of income and employment the total number of international migrants, and also makes use of the natural capital including those displaced by climate-related and resources. natural disasters, is 41 per cent higher than The awareness of these core factors in 2000. By 2050, the number is expected in Irish agriculture has positioned to reach more than 400 million. However, sustainability at the centre of the sector’s the large majority of migrants worldwide, long-term vision Food Wise 2025, which about 740 million, move within their own states that: “Environmental sustainability countries rather than abroad. They move and economic sustainability are equal from one rural area to another or from rural and complementary – one cannot be to urban areas. achieved at the expense of the other.” Although conflicts, violence and natural Ireland is already one of the world’s disasters are among the major causes of most efficient food producers through migration and displacement, many migrants continued action to drive down the are also compelled to move because of emission intensity of Ireland’s livestock socio-economic factors. These include production. Most notably this has www.origingreen.ie poverty, food insecurity, lack of employment been achieved through the world’s first opportunities, limited access to social

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protection and the depletion of natural that improve yields and build resilience Options for achieving mitigation benefits resources. through practices such as green manuring, from agricultural sectors are available, In the coming decades, climate change nitrogen-fixing cover crops and sustainable but these options should be viewed in the is likely to increase migration pressures soil and water management, as well as broader context of providing food for all both within and across countries, posing integration with agroforestry and animal and must be prioritised without threatening challenges but also potential opportunities production. food security. for food security, sustainable agriculture and More resilient agriculture and rural development. investments into smallholder and family Leaving no one behind farmers can deliver transformative change Smallholders and poor people in rural Sustainable agriculture and enhance the prospects and incomes areas often lack access to support services. Hunger, poverty and climate change need to of the world’s poorest while buffering They will require far greater access to be tackled together. This is a development them against the impacts of climate change. technologies, markets, information and imperative, but also a moral one, as those Livelihood diversification can also help credit for investment to adjust their who are now suffering most from food rural households manage climate risks by production systems and practices to climate insecurity have contributed least to the combining on-farm activities with seasonal change. changing climate. International agreements work – in both agriculture and other sectors. To allow for the transformation towards such as the Paris Agreement, the 2030 In all cases, social protection programmes sustainable and more equitable agriculture Agenda for Sustainable Development, will need to play an important role in to happen, access to adequate extension the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk helping smallholders better manage advice and markets must improve. Reduction and the Agenda for Humanity risk, reducing vulnerability to food price Insecurity of tenure, high transaction costs, provide opportunities for concrete actions to tackle climate change. As the impacts of climate change Hunger, poverty and climate change need to be tackled become more and more severe, a global together. This is a development imperative, but also a transformation towards sustainable agriculture must begin immediately. moral one, as those who are now suffering most from food Smallholders must be supported to adapt insecurity have contributed least to the changing climate to climate change. The integration of the agricultural sector perspectives in 94 per cent of countries’ climate commitments volatility. Investment in smallholder and lower access to resources, especially – their intended nationally determined agriculture and family farming, social among rural women, are barriers that will contributions or INDCs – is a clear protection, and climate risk management need to be overcome. Access to weather and indicator that countries know this already. and risk transfer tools such as insurance climate information in agriculture and food Such strong demand for climate action are far below the levels needed to manage security, disaster risk reduction, water and also underlines the fact that FAO has a climate risks. health are equally important to ensure food fundamental contribution to make. More for all. coherent strategies, financing, data and Prioritising mitigation information are needed to better inform To keep the increase in global temperature International and South–South transformative policies and institutions that below 2°C, emissions will need to drop by cooperation can overcome barriers to implementation of as much as 70 per cent by 2050. Keeping The international community needs actions at scale. climate change within manageable levels to act to address climate change today, is possible with the contribution of the by adopting climate-friendly practices Adaptation and resilience agriculture sectors. in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Concrete adaptation actions to face climate The challenge will be to reduce emissions International cooperation, particularly change should take place urgently at scale while meeting unprecedented demand South–South cooperation, through the to make agriculture more sustainable, for food. In the forestry sector, avoiding sharing and exchange of technologies and productive and resilient. Diversification deforestation, increasing forested areas good practices, should be geared towards and better integration of food production and adopting sustained-yield management supporting smallholder and family farmers systems into ecological processes can create in timber production can store large adapt to climate change. synergies with the natural habitat instead of amounts of carbon. Appropriate land use This will determine whether humanity depleting natural resources. and soil management lead to improved soil succeeds in eradicating hunger and poverty Agroecology and sustainable quality and fertility and can help mitigate by 2030. Business as usual is no longer an intensification are examples of approaches climate change. option to ensure food for all.

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INTERNATIONAL SEED FEDERATION Crops for a changing climate

Plant breeders are already adapting crops to the world’s changing climate, but the clock is ticking. To help us grow more and faster, we need a policy environment where innovation can flourish

armers around the world already suffer from the instability and uncertainty caused by climate change. Erratic and extreme weather conditions are Fwreaking havoc on harvests and livelihoods by increasing drought, soil salinity, plant pests /iStock © Hadynyah and diseases. Crop improvement is key to stabilising and increasing harvests in such challenging growing conditions. Yield stability is the basis of farmers’ livelihoods and local food security. In pursuit of this, plant breeders are constantly seeking new ways to adapt crops to local climates. But we need to recognise that the lack of incentives for innovation in both the public and private sectors is compromising the world’s ability to combat hunger. Thanks to advances in plant science and breeding methods, today’s breeders have developed climate-resilient varieties, such as drought-tolerant maize. They are developing crops with resistances to fungi, bacteria and insects whose detrimental impact can be exacerbated by climate change. Resistances to rust in wheat, blast in rice and bacterial blight in barley can all be found when breeders can use a wide variety of public investment in research is badly needed. natural genetic diversity. In order for farmers to benefit from these Plant breeding takes time – up to 10 Investment in plant new developments, policies should be years, depending on the crop. However, with consistent and science-based across countries the current pace of climate change and rate research can yield and regions. of population growth, plant breeders are Time is not on our side. Action needs to struggling to keep up with demand. tools with great be taken now to provide an enabling policy environment that stimulates plant breeding Clarity and reassurance needed societal benefits to bring stability for farmers, product quality Better understanding of biological for consumers and food security for the world. mechanisms in plants have brought us new Let’s make sure that future generations will not tools that can significantly speed up the adapted to local conditions. Ultimately, this state ask why more was not done to deploy the full breeding process and target the necessary of confusion can limit innovation. range of plant breeding tools available. improvements more precisely. Plant breeders, both in public institutes However, not all tools are equally and private breeding companies, need accepted everywhere in the world, which more clarity about the national policies that creates a patchwork of policy and regulatory govern access to genetic resources for food environments for such plant breeding and agriculture, and reassurance about the innovations, despite their relative accessibility acceptance and regulation of the breeding and affordability. methods that can be used. Plant breeding has UNA-UK thanks the This leads to uncertainty for the world’s shown that investment in plant research can International Seed Federation for its plant breeders who are developing crops yield tools with great societal benefits – and generous support for Climate 2020 118 ABOUT US

Editors Natalie Samarasinghe Climate 2020: Fred Carver Sub-editors Howard Gossington sustainability Samantha Guerrini Design James White e endeavour to minimise the environmental impact Journalist Claudia Delpero of disseminating the information in this publication. Commercial director Edmund Robinson WIt is published in print form as this is the most effective medium to convey its content – most readers express the Account managers Valentina Ortis preference for print as the most accessible format for complex Cecily Robinson topics. It is also ideal when the information has a value for an Operations Sara Aru extended period of time and lends itself well to pass-on readership. Contrary to popular misconception, printed publications can Geraldine Brennan have a lower overall environmental impact than electronic versions Financial controller Ricky Harwood of the same material. Paper itself should be a renewable and Editorial director Claire Manuel sustainable material. The paper used in this publication is certified by PEFC Publisher Hugh Robinson (Programme for Endorsement of Forest Certification), which Chairman Anthony Hilton is an international non-profit, non-governmental organisation dedicated to promoting Sustainable Forest Management through Published by independent third-party certification. Witan Media Ltd The excess carbon emissions associated with manufacturing Leroy House of the paper have been balanced with carbon credits from the Essex Road World Land Trust. The trust uses the avoided deforestation London N1 3QP, UK technique (REDD) to protect threatened forests of very high Tel: +44 (0)20 3327 3730 www.witanmedia.com conservation importance. The publications are printed by Buxton Press, which has been On behalf of United Nations recognised by the UK printing industry for its environmental Association – UK management. Buxton uses 100 per cent vegetable based inks, alcohol 3 Whitehall Court free printing and ultra low chemistry processes for plate making. It London SW1A 2EL, UK has a particular focus on waste reduction and energy conservation, Tel: +44 (0)20 7766 3454 and has worked with the Carbon Trust to minimise its power use. www.una.org.uk Copies distributed in UK and Europe – including copies at Front cover: children play in Teone’s graveyard, COP 23 in Bonn – will be delivered using DPDgroup’s carbon Tuvalu (© Sokhin/UNICEF) neutral service. Images: Alamy, CIFOR, Getty Images, Reuters, UNHCR, UNICEF, UN Photo

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The United Nations Association – UK (UNA-UK) is the only UK charity devoted to building support for an effective UN, and a vibrant grassroots movement campaigning for a safer, fairer and more sustainable world

n 1945, the creation of the UN reflected the Agreement on climate change and the 2030 hope for a better future. Since then, UNA-UK Agenda for Sustainable Development. Making Ihas enabled ordinary people to engage with that these commitments count – for the world’s most promise, by connecting people from all walks of vulnerable people and for the future of our planet life to the UN and influencing decision-makers to – will require a wholesale transformation of our support its goals. economies and societies. This, in turn, will need Today, the need for the UN has never been global cooperation and public buy-in on a scale greater. Thanks to the organisation, millions of that has never been seen before. people now live longer, safer and healthier lives. But UNA-UK serves as a bridge between many have been left behind. governments, the UN and the public. Far too many people still die each year from We lobby for joined-up thinking on peace, violence, disasters and deprivation. Human rights development and human rights, and for strong violations persist in all corners of the globe, and action on climate change. We work with experts humanitarian emergencies are on the increase. and practitioners to find new ways to tackle the War and persecution have forced more people challenges we face. Through education and to flee their homes than at any other time since training, we equip young people to play a role in records began. international affairs. And by demonstrating why These problems are not confined to one country. the UN matters, we encourage people to act on Nor can they be tackled in isolation. The UN is their responsibilities as global citizens. the only organisation with the reach, remit and Our members and supporters multiply these legitimacy to address the challenges we face. efforts at the local level, and our sister UNAs To make a donation, Over the last two years, the UN has around the world do so internationally. Together, find out more or get demonstrated its ability to forge global solutions we form a critical mass of support for a strong, in touch, please visit through two landmark agreements: the Paris credible and effective United Nations. www.una.org.uk

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