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Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING PROCESS IN THE REPUBLIC OF

Olga SÂRBU

Agrarian State University of Moldova, Chisinau 42 Mircesti street, MD-4209, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Phone: +373 22 432387, E-mail: [email protected]

Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract

Purpose of this paper consists in analyzing economic and social aspects of demographic aging process in Moldova. To interpret the accumulated data and calculations performed analytical method of calculation tabular method and graphical method was applied. Intense process of aging is associated with changes in all spheres of social and economic life and affects equally the interests of older people and society as a whole. In Republic of Moldova aging population has grown in the last two decades, being conditioned both declining birth rate, which is very low and does not provide simple reproduction of the population and the mass migration of population that leads to the depopulation of the country. Maintaining the natural and migration increase with negative values amplifies the negative demographic deterioration of the country, which influences economic development, competitiveness and stability of the country and welfare of its citizens. In this situation it is necessary to respond positively to the challenges of demographic change through the complex and multisectoral approaches designed to correct current unfavorable demographic evolutions.

Key words: adult population, demographic aging, demographic situation, young population.

INTRODUCTION transition or demographic revolution [5].

The UN report regarding the analysis of the Population is considered „young” when population age structure modification in the people aged 60 and over are less than 8%. If period 1950-2050 indicates that the current their share is 8-12% - the population is in „the century will witness the rapid population pre-ageing period”, and if it is 12% and more ageing which is a global phenomenon the population is ageing. The level of affecting the life of everyone. The main population ageing in a particular country is problem, caused by the transformation of determined as follows: 12-14% - medium population age structure, consists in the level, 16-18% - high, 18% and more - very multitude and complexity of population high level. UN experts, analyzing the ageing consequences and their resolution can demographic processes and classification of be hampered by the fact that social countries according to the ageing degree, use institutions of contemporary society were the following criteria: young population has in formed under conditions of young population. its structure 4% of people aged 65 years old Population ageing presents a shift of the and older and for the mature population this population age structure to mature ages and it index varies between 4-7%. If the share of is determined by the demographic transition people 65 and older is more than 7%, the process from high levels of natality and population is considered aged. mortality, specific for the reproductive In the Republic of Moldova, working system of agrarian societies, to low levels of population means men aged 16-61 years old natality and mortality, characteristic for and women aged 16-56 years old. The persons industrial societies. who exceed the limit of retirement age are Population age structure represents an considered aged. In the socio-demographic important characteristic of each country. analysis the following classifications are used: Population ageing is a consequence of the children 0-14 years old, working-age population age structure modification population 15-59 years old and elderly people occurring in the process of demographic - 60 years old and over. [3] 353 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 Population ageing is a complex phenomenon changes in the lifestyle of the population, having important implications in all spheres of value orientations, including the reproductive life. In economics, population ageing have behaviour of the population. All this has led to negative consequences on the economic deep changes in the demographic growth, accumulation of savings, investment development of the world countries, and consumption, labour markets, pensions, manifested primarily by significant decrease tax charges and transfers between generations. of the birth and fertility rate, establishing a In the social sphere, population ageing clear trend of population ageing. influences family size and living conditions, The modification of population age structure, dwelling requirements, migration trends, as a result of past demographic development epidemiological situation and structure of features and disturbances of different nature, medical services. On the political arena, leads to economic, social and other population ageing may influence the outcome consequences both for the entire country and of elections and political representation for different parts of it. As a rule, these are system. long-term consequences gaining increased Globally, the growth rates of the elderly proportions or reducing to some stages of population is of 2,6% per year, considerably demographic development depending on the exceeding the growth rates of the total type of age structure. It should be mentioned population. It is expected that by 2050, that often the consequences of population age compared with other age groups, the elderly structure change are treated superficially, population will increase much faster. All the being reduced only to issues related to above mentioned require to elaborate and population ageing. But they have a much implement deep socio-economic reforms in broader spectrum and include all age groups most countries. [3] putting their mark on many social processes. The changes in the age structure of the MATERIALS AND METHODS population involve changes in the general

In order to achieve the purpose and objectives structure of social needs. For example, of our study there were used quantitative and reduced number and share of children in the qualitative research methods, allowing to population structure results in fewer places in determine the prevalence and extent of school and preschool institutions, and investigated characteristics as well as to respectively, fewer teachers, educators, etc. evaluate the level and quality of life of elderly Increased share of elderly people in the people. The quantitative research was based population structure causes the necessity to on the analysis of NBS statistical data supplement medical and social institutions as obtained from household budget surveys, well as to train special staff. Important survey on labour force in the agricultural changes related to the modification of farms and other statistical data. There were population structure occur as well in other also used a number of administrative data spheres of human life: personal, family, provided by National Social Insurance Office, professional, economic, political, cultural, etc. National Agency for and other So, this means emphasized changes in all institutions. spheres of the contemporary society, especially the society of tomorrow. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Population ageing is the most important and long-lasting change in the age structure of a Economic development of the contemporary population in the process of demographic world during the XXth century and at the st transition. In the Republic of Moldova, beginning of XXI century is characterized by population ageing has started later compared the internationalization and integration of the to many developed European countries world , increase of migration and because the decline in birth rate began with a information flows, development of new disparity. technologies which, in turn, caused significant 354 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 Statistical analysis proves that at present the share of adult population aged 15-59 years old demographic process in the Republic of increased from 58,9% to 66,45% (Fig. 1). Moldova started to repeat the demographic Numerically, the number of elderly people transition model that has been developed in increased by 3,3 times, from 222,5 thousand recent decades in the developed countries and people in 1959 to 484,9 thousand people in which is characterized by the shift from high 2004. At the beginning of 2008, the absolute levels of mortality and natality to lower number of persons aged 60 and over compared levels. Having an inevitable character linked to 2004 decreased slightly reaching 488,4 to the general trend of society modernization, thousand, which constituted 13,67% of the the demographic transition in the Republic of total population. Moldova performs some specific features Due to the high mortality level of the working because of the negative changes in mortality age men the population ageing phenomenon levels and a rapid decline of birth rate, fact is mostly a women-specific process, fact that will contribute much to increase the rate which reconfirms the specific regularity of of population’s demographic ageing. population ageing depending on gender. Population structure by age has the specific Currently, women represent more than 60% feature of population ageing, i.e. increased in the structure of population aged 60 and share of elderly men and women and reduced over. In elderly population the share of share of persons aged 0-14 years old. women aged over 60 is about 30,8%, while According to the population census in 2004 the share of men is 6% lower – 24,8%. compared to 1959, the share of persons aged Although, during the reference period the 60 and over increased from 7,7% to 13,78% population of working age (16-56/61 years and the share of young people aged 0-14 year old) increased, the forecasts show that by old significantly reduced from 33,4% to 2013 this figure will decrease continuously. 19,77%. During the same period the specific

Fig. 1 Population structure by age groups (in %) in the Republic of Moldova in the period 1959-2012 Source: Elaborated by author based on data of NBS, Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Moldova 2012, p. 36

In the evolution of population structure by age Riscani – 20,4% and Ocnita – 19,8%. Only in groups from territorial perspective, the three administrative-territorial units (Ialoveni, transformations occurred similarly by reduced Chisinau and Calarasi) of the Republic of number of young people and increased share Moldova, the share of population aged 60 and of the elderly population, due to the high level older is less than 12%. Thus, it can be stated of birth rate decrease. Population ageing in that, in a greater or lesser extent, all other the Republic of Moldova is uneven, from a administrative-territorial units are affected by territorial perspective the share of the elderly the demographic ageing phenomenon. population in some districts varies from Analysis of population structure by large age 10,7% in the center up to 24,3% in the north. groups - children (0-14 years old), adults (15- The highest share of elderly population is 59 years old) and elderly people (60 years old concentrated in the north of the country, the and older) - demonstrates the existence of estimated average being of 18,3%. The most extremely large differences in the number of affected districts are: Donduseni, accounting these groups at administrative-territorial level. for 24,3% of the elderly population, Drochia – It was highlighted a high concentration for the 21,6%, Briceni – 21,4%, Edinet – 21,1%, adult population (15-59 years old), 355 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 respectively, of the working age population, territory of the Republic of Moldova, the rural primarily in Chisinau which has areas compared to urban areas have a higher reached a share of 74,%. This is due to intense share of children in the age structure of the internal migration flow toward the capital, population. which is an administrative, political, In the next few decades, in the Republic of economical and cultural center of our Moldova, population ageing process will republic, the main reasons being related to continue rapidly. Even if effective measures work and study. Obviously, high development are taken to stimulate birth rate, they will not rate of the capital, residential construction, significantly influence this phenomenon. higher employment opportunities make Unstable socio-economic situation, Chisinau very attractive, especially for young underdeveloped labour market, low wages in people. A high share of adult population the country, as well as the possibilities of free (working age) is also recorded in some movement at least for medium term will districts located near the capital. Thus, in the stimulate negative external migration, which districts Anenii Noi and Ialoveni, the share of will continue to affect the age structure of working age people is of 70% and 70,6% population. Given that subsequent changes in respectively of the total population. In the the population age structure emerge quite north part of our republic the share of clearly, they can be anticipated through the population aged 15-59 years old is the lowest, elaboration of appropriate measures that will averaging 65,7%. Balti municipality located allow the adjustment of all structures and in the north is market by a prominent society as a whole to these long-term concentration (72%). In the south, the demographic changes. Although the ageing estimated average (68,9%) is exceeded only in process is inevitable, its consequences are district, reaching 70,3%. [3] largely determined by the approach to solve It should be mentioned that the category of the discussed problem and by the elaborated territorial administrative units with a relatively sectorial options and programs. young demographic structure includes the The process of population ageing in the localities with a high degree of economic Republic of Moldova, unlike global trends, is development, which, in recent decades, have more pronounced in the rural areas (table 1). received a great part of immigrants (flows of Table 1. Stable population by areas, gender and age people of working age) coming from localities groups on January 1, 2012, thousand people with a low economic level, mainly from rural of which Men Men aged areas. Two : Chisinau and Balti Men aged 16- 62 years attract young working-age population, Total, and 61 years old and thousand women old, over, allowing them to maintain a favourable age people aged 0- women women 15 years aged 16- aged 57 structure of the population, however, these old 56 years years old two cities record the lowest number of old and over Total, 3559,5 624,0 2369,5 566,0 children aged 0-14 years old. Children share of which: in the capital, in the period 1990-2011, -women 1847,8 303,1 1150,3 394,4 -men 1711,7 320,9 1219,2 171,6 decreased from 23,9% down to 13,6%. The including: same situation is specific for Balti, where the - urban areas, total 1485,7 221,5 1038,7 225,5 of which percentage of children (0-14 years old) -women 787,4 106,5 522,3 158,6 constituted 13,9% in 2011. In hierarchical -men 698,3 115,0 516,4 66,9 - rural a areas, total 2073,8 402,5 1330,8 340,5 order, Chisinau and Balti municipalities are of which: -women 1060,4 196,6 628 235,8 followed the districts located in the north of -men 1013,4 205,9 702,8 104,7 the country which record the lowest values of Source: Elaborated by author based on data of NBS, Statistical young population share and a high level of Yearbook of the Republic of Moldova 2012, p. 39 demographic ageing. The largest number of The variations in population distribution by children in the population structure was areas are unessential. In 2011, the urban recorded in Cantemir and Telenesti districts population ratio was of 41,7%, the lowest (21,1%). It should be noted that on the whole 356 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 found level in which indicates the in 2006. From 2007 to 2011 it had a tendency country's economic underdevelopment. In of increase up to 14,8 (if the value of this absolute values we observed that urban index is of 12,0 the population is classified as population decreased more than the rural one, aged). leading to a relative process of ruralization, contrary to global trends, but which is also an indicator of disadvantageous character. Population ageing, evaluated from territorial perspective, is more pronounced in the rural areas, establishing significant differences between towns and villages. Statistical data analysis according to the area of residence, shows that almost 15,5% of the rural Fig. 2 Evolution of the population ageing coefficient in population is over the age of 60 years old (in the Republic of Moldova in the period 1980-2011 urban areas – 13,7%), and the share of elderly Source: Elaborated by author based on data of NBS, Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Moldova 2012, p. 39 women in the total female population was of

18,4% at the beginning of 2012. This trend will obviously have impact on the Statistics confirms that male population in the age structure of human resources in the health urban areas in recent years is characterized as care system so that the average age of the a relatively young population (the share of age medical staff will continue to increase and the groups over 62 years old is only about 10%) rate of retired medical staff will increase too. and in rural areas it exceeded the ageing limit, The effects of population ageing are multiple accounting for 12% . Urban female population and complex, having a significant influence aged over 57 years old makes up 20% and in on the social development and economic rural areas it is characterized by a high degree growth. This influence is manifested by health of ageing (23%), which suggests that care systems, social insurance and labour population ageing is primarily determined by force. A major concern is connected to the the ageing of female population in rural areas. problem of ensuring the stability of retirement Population ageing is a consequence of the funds and increased expenses to form it. increasing share of adults and the elderly It should be mentioned that in order to people, while the share of children and accomplish the objectives related to social adolescents is lower and therefore there is an protection of the elderly people, whose increase in the average age of the population. number is steadily increasing, offering them The evolution of ageing process is opportunities to get a worthy job in spite of characterized by the following features: it is the need or desire to remain economically more intense for women than for men due to active, and access to appropriate health care higher life expectancy of the female services will be difficult, especially for the population; it happens more intensely in the Republic of Moldova. In the economically rural areas compared to urban areas due to developed countries, the current and coming longer life expectancy in urban areas. generation of elderly people, who live in Therefore, population ageing is mainly a conditions of economic stability and high women-specific process, due to high mortality living standards, had the opportunity to of the working age men. Currently, in the accumulate materials resources and are able to structure of population aged 60 and over, the pay, for example, some social assistance or women constitute more than 60%. home care services or others, while in the Population ageing coefficient (the number of Republic of Moldova current and future persons aged 60 and over per 100 generations of elderly people have lost the inhabitants), in the period 1980-2011, had an accumulated money during the economic unstable evolution, with a tendency to crisis in the 90’s of last century, were increase from 10,7 in 1980 to 13,9 in 2003, unemployed or worked in the agricultural then it decreased insignificantly reaching 13,5 sector, receiving extremely low wages and 357 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 therefore fund allocations reduced. Without At international level, there are deep achieving an increased rate of economic contrasts, reflecting the economic gap growth and in order to solve this problem it between developed and developing countries. would be necessary to increase the burden on Technological, economic and cultural the elderly working age population (raising progress as well as policies and programs taxes or other contributions). implemented over the last decade in the The average life expectancy at birth is one of Republic of Moldova, generated positive the main indices characterizing population results in many areas: increasing the level and health. Life expectancy at birth indicates the quality of life, enhancing the access to number of years a newborn infant would live medical services, improving population health if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time and as a result, increasing life expectancy. of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.

Fig. 3 Life expectancy at birth (in years) in the Republic of Moldova in the period 2002-2011 Source: Elaborated by author based on data of NBS, Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Moldova 2012, p. 40

Life expectancy at birth increased from 68,1 young working population, including the years old in 2002 to 71,05 years old in 2011, Republic of Moldova, have a potential that can including 67,1 for men and 75,0 for women, ensure economic growth. At present, we which means that on average for both sexes should not focus on measures that will be during ten years it increased by about 3 years. necessary only when there is labour force Women live longer than men by 7,9 years. shortage, but it is necessary to focus our efforts This difference is due to higher levels of on creating jobs for the economically active premature mortality of men. Because of generations, especially for young people who different mortality levels, the average life of will reach the working age. Labour market urban residents was longer than of those from development, stimulated employment in the rural areas, respectively by 3,5 years for men formal sector of economy will help to increase and 3,2 years for women. Increased life tax revenues and opportunities for expanding expectancy, along with the reduction of social programs for elderly people. fertility rate causes population ageing and this The transition to older age groups is often trend of increasing life expectancy at birth will accompanied by lower living standards. Often continue in the future being a characteristic reduced economic possibilities and worsened process of the European countries. health make the elderly people vulnerable in In terms of population ageing, the share of terms of poverty. In the Republic of Moldova, working age population is inevitably reducing the main material source for this category of and there is an inevitable ageing of the labour people is the pension which is very modest, force itself. In this context, population ageing representing 28,7% of the national average can become a factor that will hinder the nominal salary in 2011. Average old age economic growth, if we don’t find the pension in the Republic of Moldova is the possibility to stop rate reduction of labour lowest in Europe and covers only 58-60% of force and to implement effective measures to the subsistence minimum. More than 90% of increase labour productivity. However, it retired people receive pensions of less than one should be noted that countries with relatively thousand lei, which prevent some elderly

358 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 people to live a full life. The majority of will be reached by the people who are currently elderly people are protected from health risks, not employed or work without labour contract. disability and low living standards. Therefore, the minimum social service costs for Demographic transition submits a very difficult them will be incurred by the social funds. problem related to the insurance of pension There are enough reasons to suppose that in the systems viability i.e. creating conditions for the next few years, people who have reached economic security of elderly persons. Thus, retirement age will be professionally more adjusting the rate of pensions to the living active than their precursors. In the future, standards is still an important objective of reduced natality rate will decrease the pressure policies connected to the population ageing of young people on the jobs of elderly people. phenomenon. Elderly people will have to work, because their At the end of 2011 the number of pensioners significant number will not allow the young was of 638,3 thousand persons, including people with a relatively small share in the 473,1 thousand reaching the retirement age, population structure to maintain them. their share being lower compared with the year It should be noted that population ageing 1999, which is explained by the fact that occurs in permanently changing social currently, the generations entering retirement conditions: reduced family size, modified are less numerous as they were born during the intergenerational relationships, concerns about war and post-war years and because of caring for the elderly people. In 2011, in the increased retirement age. In 2003, the share of Republic of Moldova, the number of families 57 years old women reached the lowest value, consisting of one person increased up to while in the following years there was recorded 25,9%. The persons aged 60 and over recorded a gradual increase in the number of women of the share of 20,2% in the total number of this age, which obviously leads to increased households. [4] number of retired women. Because of the Changes concerning the disorganization of difference between the retirement age for men family structure and reduced size of and women, established by law (62 years old households will have social consequences at versus 57 years old) the wartime generations of both individual and society level. If before, the men reach retirement 5 years later than problems related to the elderly people were women, thus, for men this process is just solved within the family, then at present and in beginning. the future, the society will have to involve Along with declining fertility rates and itself more and more in order to solve these increasing life expectancy at birth, pension problems. Family alienation, rural-urban expenditures will have to increase, which exodus of young people, industrialization and presents a huge challenge for social insurance urbanization processes, as well as pension and systems. Also, we have to mention that in the health care insurance systems transferred some Republic of Moldova, the retirement age is of the responsibilities for the elderly people much lower compared to developed countries. outside the family, thus changing One of the measures that will help to reduce intergenerational relations. It is an obvious fact social expenditures would be to equalize the that the relative independence of the elderly retirement ages for men and women which also people from their descendants caused some could be a measure to stimulate participation in rupture between parents and children, the labour force. accompanied by undesirable effects such as Insuring pensions for the elderly people, isolation, abandonment or institutionalization increased expenses for the health care and of the elderly person. The problem concerning social services will be the most difficult the maintenance of an elderly person within the medium and long term social problems in the family raises the issue of developing the social Republic of Moldova, because of the fact that assistance services at the community level. by 2015 the number of elderly people will Population ageing is accompanied by the increase continuously and taking into process of epidemiological transition, consideration that after 2020 the retirement age characterized by the shift from the prevalence 359 Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13 , Issue 1, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995 , E-ISSN 2285-3952 of infectious diseases, high levels of maternal In the next decades, the intensity of population and infant mortality to the domination of ageing will increase the by the expanding chronic diseases in the population mortality number of elderly generations born in the 70- structure. Demographic changes and 80’s of last century, simultaneously with the epidemiological transition are in a strong reduced number of working age population as correlation. As low birth rate and deadly a result of less numerous generations born in infectious diseases take place, the average life the 90’s of last century. of the population is increasing. In addition, All the demographic processes and phenomena there is an increasing life expectancy of people affect the sustainability of economic and social who have suffered from various childhood development of the country in general as well diseases. Consequently, the share of the elderly as the situation of the elderly people in people, who are subject to chronic diseases in a particular. Therefore, our society must find greater extent than younger people, increases ways to solve the dual problem: on the one in the population structure. The higher hand - to ensure sustainable social and numbers of elderly people the higher spreading economic development of the state and on the degree of the non-infectious diseases. Thus, other hand – to ensure the possibility that population ageing accelerates the elderly people could live safely and decently epidemiological transition. and would be able to participate in society’s Population ageing will have a significant life as full citizens. influence on the health care system, caused by For the Republic of Moldova, the stabilization increased mortality because of chronic diseases of population ageing process involves and by the number of people with disabilities removing demographic and discriminatory (elderly people are more at risk of disability imbalances and asymmetries and adjusting the than younger people) fact which will require ageing process to real socio-economic the restructuring of social services and conditions. In the short term, the solution for extension of gerontological, rehabilitation and this issue consists in stabilizing the palliative care services. reproduction by consistent demographic and family policies. In the long term, it would be CONCLUSIONS necessary to use these resources in the socio- economic development and adjust the social Socio-economic status of any country is sphere to the demographic trends and decisively determined by the quantity and sustainable standards. quality of human resources. Contemporary demographic situation in the Republic of REFERENCES Moldova and outlined trends in this field can’t ensure the sustainable development of the [1] Anuarele statistice ale Republicii Moldova 2005- country. The process of population ageing 2011, Chișinău, Statistica, 2005-2012 [2] Aspecte privind nivelul de trai al populaţiei în 2011. becomes increasingly evident. 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