VILJAR VEEBEL | MUNICIPAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS IN 2017

Content Summary ...... 3

Introduction ...... 4

Basic principles and rules for Estonian municipal council elections ...... 4

A glimpse at the results of internet voting ...... 5

The outcome of the 2017 municipal council elections in Estonia ...... 6 Overall turnout ...... 6 Election outcome by political party ...... 6 Election outcomes in the two most infl uential electoral districts ...... 8

Conclusions ...... 9

Additional sources and statistics ...... 11

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Summary small communities and vote for those they trust and not for decoy ducks. At the same time, in Tal- The outcome of the municipal council elections in linn and voters preferred big political parties 2017 in Tallinn and Tartu also indirectly suggests which conducted extensive professional advertis- that, at present, none of the political parties rep- ing campaigns. To some extent, this could also re- resented in the parliament should be interested fl ect the tendency of voters in big cities to be less in calling for extraordinary elections. Thus, earlier willing to take risks; when voting for big political speculation in the policy community that the cur- parties voters already know in advance what they rent government could collapse after the munic- will get, whereas the possible actions of election ipal council elections in 2017 appear unfounded. coalitions are more unclear. This defi nitely contributes to the overall political stability in Estonia after the turbulence in 2016. The latest elections were a lesson for both the Social Democrats and the Conservative Peoples’ The results of the elections in big cities correlated Party. We have seen that due to the polarisation of both with expectations leading into the elections society today, voters will punish every opinion that and with the current division of power in the na- derogates from the neutral. In this light, the Social tional parliament. This should defi nitely build the Democrats in particular should think about the rea- confi dence of the Centre Party (KE). Although Pro son why they have failed so many times in realiz- Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) is considered ing their potential in elections. This brings us to the one of the losers of the latest elections because of question of whether in the future the Social Dem- their drastic loss of voters compared to the elec- ocrats should continue their abstract ideological tions four years ago, at the same time they still fi ghts simultaneously with the Reform Party and showed a result in 2017 that was better than over- the Conservative Peoples’ Party, or whether they all expectations. Thus, to some extent they should should choose a more discrete approach to bring feel relatively confi dent as well. their ideas and values closer to the voter. It might be the case that in the latest elections the Social Those political parties that chose to use “decoy Democrats also put too much hope on the poten- candidates” (members of national parliament of tial vacant left wing voters of the Russian-speaking European Parliament) to gain more votes were community, particularly in Tallinn, after the former the winners of the elections, even if both the can- Russian-minded party leader of the Centre Party, didates themselves and the general public knew, Edgar Savisaar, was replaced by Jüri Ratas. How- that these decoys would never be participating in ever, this advantage has not materialised because the local municipal councils. This could be most other members of the Centre Party with Russian clearly seen with the Reform Party, which included backgrounds, such as Mihhail Kõlvart and Yana to lists of candidates two current members from Toom, have broadly compensated for it. European Parliament, as well as President of the and voters expressed their support for As far as the Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) these “decoy candidates”. This development sug- is concerned, the latest elections have shown gests that a candidate’s “famous face” is more im- that they need to recruit more (at least 20) well- portant than his or her active participation in po- known and highly reputable people to realize their litical debates during the pre-election period. For abstract support and to get real mandates both example, some of the candidates with the highest at the local and national level. The latest public number of votes, such as Yana Toom and Kaja opinion polls have shown that public support for Kallas, mostly did not bother themselves with ac- EKRE is greater than for IRL. Despite this, in the tive debates during the latest elections. latest municipal elections IRL managed to beat EKRE. This clearly highlights the tendency of IRL Election coalitions worked very well in small com- to have more familiar faces that tip the balance in munities. This is most likely related to personal their favour when elections come even if ideologi- connections – people know each other better in cal support might be greater for EKRE.

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Introduction Russian-speaking community) supported him. However, the number of votes he got in the 2017 Although general municipal elections are consid- elections was still more than for the leaders of the ered second-order elections in comparison with Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (Hanno Pevkur parliamentary and presidential elections, the im- got 3,590 votes) and the Social Democrats (Je- portance of the latest municipal council elections vgeni Ossinovski got 1,375 votes). Even the best in Estonia should not be underestimated in two result for the Social Democrats (Rainer Vakra with respects. First, these municipal elections were the 3,296 votes) was below the number of votes for fi rst general elections since autumn 2016, when Edgar Savisaar. drastic changes took place in the Estonian polit- ical landscape. In November 2016, the Reform Party (RE), which has participated in all govern- Basic principles and rules for Estonian ment coalitions (and mostly led them) since 1999, municipal council elections was left in opposition. Consequently, the (KE), which was for almost 20 years Estonian citizens have the right to vote in all elec- politically excluded from governance at the state tions and referendums. Citizens of other EU mem- level, has formed a new coalition with the Social ber states have the right to vote in local govern- Democrats (SDE) and the Pro Patria and Res Pub- ment council elections and European Parliament lica Union (IRL). elections. A citizen of a non-EU member state or a stateless person residing in Estonia may vote In view of this, the latest municipal council elec- in the local government council elections if he or tions constituted the first litmus test for the she resides in Estonia on the basis of a long-term success or failure of the new coalition, and in residency permit or the right to permanent resi- particular the leading Centre Party. Moreover, dence. He or she cannot stand as a candidate to the Centre Party itself has recently undergone the council, however. drastic changes – the former party leader Ed- gar Savisaar was replaced by Jüri Ratas – and The organisation of municipal council elections the impact of this step on voter behaviour was in Estonia unclear. Second, in 2015 the Estonian national „ The nomination of candidates started on 16 Au- parliament, the Riigikogu, gave 16- and 17-year- gust 2017 and ended on 5 September 2017. Only olds the right to vote in municipal council elec- registered political parties and election coalitions tions. It was reasoned that the Estonian society have the right to submit lists of candidates. faces an ageing population and that to increase „ Advance voting and internet voting took place the interest of young people in politics the vot- from 5–11 October 2017. ing age needed to be lowered. Thus, in the lat- „ Election day was 15 October 2017. est elections the minimum voting age was 16 Source: https://www.valimised.ee/en/right-vote. instead of the former 18. Municipal council elections took place in 79 local Last but not least, the municipal council elections government units in Estonia, and in total 1,729 in Estonia in 2017 have defi nitely shown what kind municipal council members were elected. The of infl uence media and communication can have number of nominated candidates registered by on interpreting the outcome of processes. After the Estonian national electoral committee was the elections, local media loudly stated that the 11,804. former party leader of the Centre Party, Edgar Sav- isaar, completely failed in the elections because of The electoral districts were divided into 15 coun- his modest number of votes. In 2017, he received ties, and the results of the elections also fol- 3,611 votes, which is defi nitely less than he gained lowed these distinctions (see also Figure A and in the municipal council elections in 2013 when subsection “The election outcome by two most more than 39,000 voters (mostly from the local infl uential electoral districts”): ,

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County, Ida-Viru County, Jõgeva County, Järva A glimpse at the results of internet voting County, Lääne County, Lääne-Viru County, Põlva County, Pärnu County, County, Saare Coun- This time, internet voting (or online voting or e-vot- ty, , , County, ing) quite unexpectedly received a lot of attention Võru County. in Estonia. Voting via the internet is something Es- tonia has practiced for more than a decade. From The exact number of members varies for each 2009 on, the number of voters preferring to par- municipal council based on the population living ticipate in elections via the internet has increased in a particular area. The municipal council in Tal- steadily (see Table 1), and internet voting has be- linn has the most members (79) and the council come more or less an organic part of elections in in municipality has the least (7). Based on Estonia. Usually, about 15–20% of voters prefer regional infl uence, the most important counties internet voting. In the most recent parliamentary are Harju County, Tartu County and Pärnu County. elections in 2015, about 30% of voters voted via Moreover, the outcome of the elections in Tallinn the internet. (where the municipal council consists of 79 mem- Table 1. bers), Tartu (49 members), Pärnu (39 members) and (31 members) were particularly closely Statistics on internet voting in Estonia monitored by experts. Local Local Local Elections Elections Elections Figure A. 2005 2009 2013 Division and number of local government units Eligible 1,059,292 1,094,317 1,086,935 :ɺVYɄ voters :iljandiɄ ,EVNYɄ GSYRX] Ʉ Participating GSYRX] Ʉ GSYRX] Ʉ 502,504 662,813 630,050 :EPKEɄ voters GSYRX] Ʉ Internet HiiuɄ 8EVXYɄ 9,317 104,413 133,808 GSYRX] Ʉ voters GSYRX] Ʉ Internet votes SaareɄ -HEŧ:MVYɄ 9,287 104,313 133,662 GSYRX] Ʉ GSYRX] Ʉ counted Source: https://www.valimised.ee/en/archive/statistics-about- 6ETPEɄ JõgevaɄ internet-voting-estonia. GSYRX]Ʉ Ʉ GSYRX] Ʉ This time, however, in September 2017, the Esto- 4ɪVRYɄ .ɪVZEɄ GSYRX] Ʉ 0ɪɪRIŧ:MVYɄ nian authorities were informed about a possible 4ɺPZEɄ GSYRX] Ʉ GSYRX] Ʉ LääneɄ vulnerability in the card chips that could potential- GSYRX] Ʉ GSYRX] Ʉ ly affect use of the Estonian ID cards, including for e-voting. This initiated a discussion in Estonia To highlight one remarkable detail in this regard, about whether it was safe to vote via the internet the number of elected council members in Esto- and whether the local elections should be post- nia decreased a few months ago as a result of poned. After some investigation, the State Elec- ongoing administrative reform. The initial num- toral Offi ce decided to allow the use of ID cards ber of elected local council members was 2,026, to vote online. In practice, this incident has not but decreased after reform to 1,729 members. affected people’s confi dence in online voting, and This decision met resistance by politicians of the in the municipal council elections in October 2017, smaller parties in Estonia such as EKRE and the 186,034 voters (about 31% of participating vot- Free Party, which have argued that reducing the ers) cast their votes online, which is Estonia’s new number of elected council members would make e-voting record. it more diffi cult for less well-known politicians to reach public offi ce. In the municipal council elections in 2017, peo- ple who decided to use e-voting mostly preferred

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candidates of the Reform Party. Among them, It was assumed in the local policy community former Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas was the most that even if about 60% of 16- and 17-year-olds popular. participated in the elections, there should be approximately 14,000 to 15,000 more voters. Al- though detailed information on turnout accord- The outcome of the 2017 municipal ing to population groups is not yet available, the council elections in Estonia fi nal number of voters in 2017 clearly shows that this expectation was not fulfi lled. Some policy Overall turnout analysts have argued that the election turnout for young people was still low even though an The overall turnout for the latest municipal elec- extensive campaign was organised to call young tions (in percentage points) was the lowest of mu- people to vote. nicipal elections´ held during the last decade (see Figure 1), despite growing popularity of electronic Figure 2. voting. Election turnout in 2013 vs 2017

1200000 Figure 1. 1000000  Ʉ  Ʉ Election turnout (%) 800000 1100653 70 600000 1086935 60,6 57,9 53,4 60 47,4 400000 50 630050 40 200000 587134 30 0 2013 2017 20 10 TotalɄnumbIVɄofɄIlectors TotalɄnumbIVɄoJɄZoters 0 2005 2009 2013 2016 Election outcome by political party

This suggests the tendency of a growing pro- Focusing on political parties, the leading coalition portion of voters to decide to “exit” instead of to party (the Centre Party) and the leading opposi- “voice” (Albert O Hirschmann: Exit, voice and loyal- tion party (the Reform Party) were the election ty, 1994). Detailed information on election turnout winners in 2017 in absolute terms (see Figure 3). according to population groups is not yet availa- The Centre party won 159,118 votes (27.3% of the ble. Assuming that the choice between “exit” and total) and the Reform Party won 113,672 votes “voice” depends on earlier experience, it could be (19.5% of the total). argued that the decreasing turnout gives an in- dication of peoples’ disappointment with leading In general, this is in accordance with the public political parties or the lack of appropriate candi- opinion polls conducted before the elections. For dates. from their point of view. example, the leading local web-based platform for policy analysis, Poliitikaguru, predicted that the The number of voters decreased in absolute terms Centre Party would win 28% of the votes and that in 2017 compared to 2013 even though the total the Reform Party would follow with 22%. number of voters was higher in 2017, partially thanks to the lowering of the minimum voting age During the pre-election period, the Reform Party (see Figure 2). searched for direct confrontation with the Centre Party, criticising its positions. Some of the Reform

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Figure 3. Party’s arguments were interpreted by the public as being too aggressive and forcing a nationali- Election results in 2017 ty-based confl ict between and the Rus- 180000 sian-speaking community in Estonia. In this sense, 160000 the recent election campaign of the Reform Party 140000 was not the most ethical. 120000 100000 Another confrontation during the pre-election pe- riod was created by the Social Democrats, who 80000 wanted to benefi t from their fundamental differ- 60000 ences with the far-right Conservative Peoples’ 40000 Party of Estonia. However, the Social Democratic 20000 party leader, Jevgeni Ossinovski, largely did this in 0 W W e a way that mobilised EKRE voters and convinced rty Party Party Ʉ the more neutral members of Estonian society not Ʉ Publica

to vote for the SDE. Instead of focusing on their WɄ emocrat TPIWɄ4E o Ʉ( Re

own strengths, the Social Democrats chose the Centre Reform

tactic of insulting the opponent, which led to a sit- GXMSRɄGSEPMXMSRW Union RYQFIVɄSJɄZSX ZIɄ4I ɄERHɄ i Social uation where the SDE won only 10.7% of the votes Ele (60,309 votes). Thus, their actual result was even Patria Ʉ

lower than predicted (e.g. the local portal Poliiti- RWIVZEX Pro kaguru predicted that the SDE would win 15% of Co the votes).

The last coalition party – the Pro Patria and Res of voters (see Figure 4). In absolute terms, the Publica Union – won a higher share of the votes increase in the number of voters was highest in than was predicted initially in public opinion polls. the case of the EKRE, which gained 30,988 voters Before the elections, the policy analysts of Poli- compared to 2013. itikaguru predicted that the party would win 5% of the votes or even fewer. The actual result was At the same time, all the current coalition parties 8%. This development could be mainly related to – the Centre Party, the Social Democrats and the the fact that another political party, the Free Par- Pro Patria and Res Publica Union – have lost ty, which shares quite similar views with the IRL, voters both in absolute and relative terms com- decided not to participate in the elections with a pared to 2013 (see Figure 4). The decline in the party-specifi c list of candidates but rather nom- number of votes was particularly drastic for the inated some of their members to the election Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, making them coalitions. However, various election coalitions a loser in the elections due to the extensive loss combining members of different political parties of voters. and independent individuals also achieved very good results (156,048 votes and 26.8% of total Despite placing fourth in the elections, the Social votes). Democrats could also be considered the losers of the elections due to loss of voters. Having in mind the dynamics of voters’ preferenc- es in the long run and comparing the results of The Conservative Peoples’ Party of Estonia in- the current elections with the outcome of the mu- creased its support more than fivefold com- nicipal council elections in 2013, two opposition pared to the outcome of the 2013 elections. This parties – the Reform Party and the far right Con- is even more remarkable given that the party’s servative Peoples’ Party – stand out. These two list of candidates was relatively weak, including political forces managed to increase their number only a limited number of people well-known in

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Figure 4. Figure 5. Comparison of fi nal results of the municipal Election results in Tallinn 2017 (%) council elections in 2013 and 2017 ProɄPatriaɄ 2 andɄReWɄ PubliGEɄ Union;Ʉ6,6 Other;Ʉ 2 ConseVŧ ZEXMZIɄ  Peoples´ Party;Ʉ7

 'IRXVIɄ PaVX] Ʉ

Ʉ  44,4 SocialɄ DemoGŧ votes  VEXW Ʉ

ŧ RefoVQɄ PaVX] Ʉ ŧ 20,5 8 8 rty Party Party Ʉ Ʉ Union Ʉ 27822  ŧ ŧ ŧ Figure 6. TPIWɄ4E 'LERKIɄMRɄXLIɄRYQFIVɄSJɄ Democrats o Ʉ

Centre Election results in Tartu 2017 (%) Reform Publica WɄ ZIɄ4I e

Social TwoɄ electiSRɄ

ɄERHɄ6 coalitions Ʉ 12,6 'IRXVIɄ 23 27 ThIɄHMfference Conservati Pa

Patria VX] Ʉ

Ʉ ProɄPatriaɄ andɄReWɄ 13,7 Pro PubliGEɄ Union;Ʉ7,4

Estonia. The rapid increase in the support for EKRE (8,337 votes in 2013 versus 39,325 votes in 2017) clearly indicates that this political par- ConservEŧ ty could be a serious competitor in the forth- XMZIɄ coming parliamentary elections in 2019, even if Peoples´ some of the current governmental parties don’t PaVX] Ʉ RefoVQɄ 11,4 want to admit this. PaVX] Ʉ SocialɄ 37,4 (IQSGVEXW Ʉ 16,6 Election outcomes in the two most infl uential elec- toral districts able considering that the former party leader As predicted by public opinion polls, in Tallinn and the voters’ magnet, Edgar Savisaar, was this the Centre Party won the elections with 44.4% of time represented by his personal candidates’ list. the votes, receiving 40 mandates and the abso- There was a lot of speculation and turbulence in lute majority in the Tallinn city council. Although the local political landscape before the elections, this is fewer than four years ago, when the KE with questions as to whether voters with Russian received 46 mandates, this result is still remark- backgrounds would vote for the KE or for the new

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Figure 7. Conclusions Election results for SDE in 2017 by county

30 The overall turnout for the latest municipal elec- tions (53,4%) was lower than in previous munic- 25 ipal elections in last decade. It could be argued

Ʉ that the de¬creasing share in turnout gives an 20

otes indication of people’s disappointment with lead-

PPɄZ 15 ing political parties or the lack of appropriate a JɄ

o candidates. The number of voters decreased in Ʉ 10 % absolute terms in 2017 compared to 2013, even 5 though the total number of voters was higher in 2017, partially due to the lowering of the mini- 0 mum voting age. Although detailed information on turnout according to population groups is not ounty ounty ounty ounty Tartu county county county Tallinn Ʉ county Ʉ ɄG Ʉ ɄG ɄG Ʉ yet available, policy analysts have estimated that EɄGSYRX] ZEɄGSYRX] MYɄG PZEɄGSYRX] Viru Hi

ŧ:MVYɄGSYRX] the turnout of young people at the elections was ŧ Võru .ɪVZEɄGSYRX] Tartu Põ Harju Valg 7EEVIɄGSYRX] Pärnu Lääne Rapla Jõge

:MPNERHMɄGSYRX] relatively low. Ida Lääne The outcome of the elections only partially over- lapped with the results of the opinion polls con- election coalition established by Edgar Savisaar ducted before the elections. and some local businessmen. The results of the latest election clearly show that voters with Rus- Focusing on political parties, the leading coalition sian backgrounds are not so much focused on party (the Centre Party) and the leading opposi- voting for certain individuals. Furthermore, the tion party (the Reform Party) were the election Centre Party itself has also successfully man- winners in 2017 in absolute terms. After them, aged to replace the former leader Edgar Savisaar various election coalitions across Estonia com- with other candidates with Russian backgrounds, bining members of different political parties and such as Mihhail Kõlvart, Yana Toom and Mihhail independent individuals also achieved very good Korb, who showed decent results in the latest results. elections. However, having in mind the dynamics of voters’ In Tartu, the Reform Party won the elections with preferences and comparing the results of the cur- 37.4% of the votes, receiving 20 mandates out of rent elections with the outcome of the municipal 49 (i.e. not the absolute majority in the Tartu city council elections in 2013, two opposition parties council). Such a development could also have – the Reform Party and the far-right Conservative been expected since the party has had a strong Peoples’ Party of Estonia – stand out. These two electorate in Tartu for decades. political forces managed to increase their number of voters compared to previous elections (see Fig- Along with a relatively poor outcome in 2017 com- ure 4). In absolute terms, the increase in the num- pared to 2013, the Social Democrats also demon- ber of voters was highest in the case of the EKRE, strated relatively unstable performance. Support which gained 30,988 voters compared with their for the Social Democrats varied remarkably across result in 2013. the counties. It was highest (about 25% of the to- tal votes) in and , where The Conservative Peoples’ Party increased its the party also has a very strong representation at support more than fivefold compared to the out- the – now already former – municipal council. The come of the 2013 elections. This rapid increase support was weakest (about 3% of total votes) in in support clearly indicates that this political Pärnu County and . party could be a serious competitor in the forth-

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coming parliamentary elections in 2019, even if some of the governmental parties don’t want to admit this.

At the same time, all the current coalition parties – the Centre Party, the Social Democrats and the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union – have lost vot- ers both in absolute and relative terms compared to 2013 (see Figure 4). The decline in the num- ber of voters was particularly drastic for the IRL. Despite placing fourth in the elections, the SDE should also be considered a loser in the elections due to its loss of voters. Instead of focusing on its own strengths, the SDE chose the tactic of insult- ing the opponent, as a result of which they gained only 10.7% of the votes.

However, some of the tendencies of the latest local elections such as the aggressive confron- tation of some political parties during the elec- tion debates and relatively broad public support for so-called “decoy ducks” should defi nitely give both politicians and voters cause for careful con- sideration during the next elections in 2019, when the new members of the national parliament, the Riigikogu, will be elected.

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Additional Offi cial information on the procedural details of the 2017 municipal council elections: sources and https://www.valimised.ee/et/kohaliku-omavalitsuse-volikogu-valimised-2017 Information on the voting results in 2017 across counties in Estonia: statistics https://kov2017.valimised.ee/valimistulemus.html The main outcome of the current elections in the special section of the local leading news portal, : https://poliitika.postimees.ee/section/3381

The overview of the main results of the elections in 2017 on the local leading news portal, Postimees: https://poliitika.postimees.ee/4277729/kiirulevaade-kes-olid-valimiste-suurimad-voitjad-ja-kaotajad

The main outcome of the current elections in another local news portal, Delfi : http://www.delfi .ee/news/kov2017/tulemused

Offi cial population statistics: https://www.siseministeerium.ee/et/eesmark-tegevused/rahvastikutoimingud/rahvastikustatistika About the author Imprint

Dr. Viljar Veebel is currently working as a Senior Researcher Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Offi ce at the and as a member of the Estoni- 37-64 Dzirnavu street | Riga, LV-1010 an Foreign Policy Institute. His main research areas include transition processes in the former bloc and the role Responsible: of the European Neighbourhood Policy in liberalization and Dr. Tobias Mörschel | Director of the FES in the Baltic States democratization processes in former Soviet republics. Previ- Tel.: +371 6783 05 39 | Fax: +371 6783 03 26 ously, Viljar Veebel has worked as an academic advisor to the http://fes-baltic.lv/lv/ Estonian Government in the European Future Convention and a lecturer at the and the Estonian School Commercial use of all media published by the of Diplomacy. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES.

About the FES FES in the Baltic States The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) was established in 1925 Shortly after the restoration of independence, in 1992, the Frie- as a political legacy of `s fi rst democratically elect- drich Ebert Foundation started its activities in the three Baltic ed president, Friedrich Ebert. Ebert, a Social Democrat from a States and opened offi ces in Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius. humble crafts background, who had risen to hold the highest The core concern was to support the democratic transition political offi ce in his country in response to his own painful ex- processes, to accompany the Baltic States on their way to perience in political confrontation, proposed the establishment the European Union and to promote the dialogue between the of a foundation to serve the following aims: – furthering polit- Baltic States and Germany, and among the countries of this ical and social of individuals from all walks of life region. in the spirit of democracy and pluralism, – facilitating access The current focus of the work of the Friedrich Ebert Founda- to university education and research for gifted young people tion in Estonia, and is: by providing scholarships, – contributing to international un- „ strengthening democracy and active civil society derstanding and cooperation. As a private, cultural, non-profi t „ supporting the European integration process institution, it is committed to the ideas and basic values of so- „ contributing to the development of a common European cial democracy. foreign and security policy „ promoting a fair and sustainable development of economic and social policies in the Baltic States and in the EU

The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily ISBN 978-3-95861-974-6 those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works.