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Cascade Hydropower Capacity Increase Profitability Analysis with Optimisation Modelling

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Cascade Hydropower Capacity Increase Profitability Analysis with Optimisation Modelling LAPPEENRANTA UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY LUT School of Energy Systems Master’s Programme in Electrical Engineering Juho Saari CASCADE HYDROPOWER CAPACITY INCREASE PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS WITH OPTIMISATION MODELLING Examiners: Prof. Jarmo Partanen Ph.D. Samuli Honkapuro Supervisor: M.Sc. (Tech) Tatu Kulla TIIVISTELMÄ Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto LUT School of Energy Systems Sähkötekniikan koulutusohjelma Juho Saari Kaskadivesivoiman kapasiteetinnoston kannattavuusanalyysi optimointimallinnuksella Diplomityö 2016 95 sivua, 40 kuvaa, 23 taulukkoa and 9 liitettä Tarkastajat: Professori Jarmo Partanen TkT Samuli Honkapuro Ohjaaja: DI Tatu Kulla Hakusanat: Vesivoima, Optimointi, Kapasiteetti, Mallinnus, Lyhyt, Aikaväli, Kannattavuus Sähkömarkkinat ja ilmasto ovat muutostilassa. Kumpikin muutos vaikuttaa vesivoimaan ja lisää kiinnostusta vesivoiman kapasiteetinnostoihin. Tässä diplomityössä kehitettiin uusi metodiikka, joka hyödyntää vesivoimantuotannon lyhyen aikavälin optimointiin ja suunnitteluun käytettävää ohjelmistoa saavuttaakseen parempaa kapasiteetinnoston kannattavuuden analysoinnin tarkkuutta. Metodiikassa tuotot lasketaan kuukauden pituisissa jaksoissa muuttaen veden juoksutusta ja sähkön hinnan volatiliteettia. Keskihinnan kehitys sisällytetään tulokseen kertoimella. Kuukausittaisista tuotoista rakennetaan vuosiskenaarioita, ja erilaisten vuosien avulla voidaan tehdä pitkän aikavälin kannattavuusanalyysi. Tätä metodiikkaa käytettiin Oulujoen vesivoimalaitoksiin. Työssä selvisi, että ne Oulujoen kapasiteetinlisäykset, joita työssä analysoitiin, eivät ole kannattavia. Kehitetty metodiikka todettiin kuitenkin monikäyttöiseksi ja hyödylliseksi. Tuloksista ilmeni, että lyhyitä ajanjaksoja kestävät hintapiikit ovat merkittävässä roolissa kapasiteetinnostojen kannattavuuden kannalta. Lisäämällä koneistovirtaamakapasiteettia niihin vesivoimalaitoksiin, jotka alun perin ohijuoksuttivat vettä useimmin, antoi parhaita tuloksia niin tuoton lisääntymisessä kuin sähköntuotantoprofiilin joustavuudessakin. ABSTRACT Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT School of Energy Systems Master’s Programme in Electrical Engineering Juho Saari Cascade hydropower capacity increase profitability analysis with optimisation modelling Master’s Thesis 2016 95 pages, 40 figures, 23 tables and 9 appendices Examiners: Professor Jarmo Partanen Ph.D. Samuli Honkapuro Advisor: M.Sc. (Tech) Tatu Kulla Keywords: Hydropower, Optimisation, Capacity, Modelling, Short-term, Profitability The electricity market and climate are both undergoing a change. The changes impact hydropower and provoke an interest for hydropower capacity increases. In this thesis a new methodology was developed utilising short-term hydropower optimisation and planning software for better capacity increase profitability analysis accuracy. In the methodology income increases are calculated in month long periods while varying average discharge and electricity price volatility. The monthly incomes are used for constructing year scenarios, and from different types of year scenarios a long-term profitability analysis can be made. Average price development is included utilising a multiplier. The method was applied on Oulujoki hydropower plants. It was found that the capacity additions that were analysed for Oulujoki were not profitable. However, the methodology was found versatile and useful. The result showed that short periods of peaking prices play major role in the profitability of capacity increases. Adding more discharge capacity to hydropower plants that initially bypassed water more often showed the best improvements both in income and power generation profile flexibility. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my supervisor Tatu Kulla and Fortum for the excellent opportunity to work on a truly interesting thesis topic while being surrounded by people working on the exact challenges in energy industry that I was taught about during my studies. I would like to express my greatest appreciation to everyone else who I’ve worked with and who has helped me with my thesis along the way. I wish to thank Professor Jarmo Partanen and Lappeenranta University of Technology for excellent lectures, courses, education and place to be. And finally friends and family, you’re great, thanks. Juho Saari Espoo 10.6.2016 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVATIONS 1.1 Background and motivation ............................................................................... 9 1.2 Objectives and scope ....................................................................................... 10 1.3 Structure and methods ..................................................................................... 10 2.1 Electricity production and demand ................................................................. 12 2.2 The Nordic power system ................................................................................ 14 2.3 Electricity marketplaces ................................................................................... 16 2.4 Expected development .................................................................................... 22 3.1 Hydropower plant .............................................................................................. 32 3.2 River as a part of power generation system ................................................. 35 3.3 Environment ....................................................................................................... 39 4.1 Hydropower and Oulujoki ................................................................................ 42 4.2 Permits and limits .............................................................................................. 45 4.3 Analysis .............................................................................................................. 47 4.3.1 Head losses in tailwater ........................................................................... 47 4.3.2 Water height profiles ................................................................................ 49 4.3.3 The flood of August 2012 ........................................................................ 51 4.3.4 Flood risks .................................................................................................. 53 4.3.5 Historical data ............................................................................................ 54 4.3.6 Summary .................................................................................................... 55 5.1 Main concept ..................................................................................................... 56 5.2 Optimisation and modelling ............................................................................. 59 5.2.1 Short-term optimisation and planning software .................................... 59 5.2.2 Oulujoki river model setup ....................................................................... 61 5.3 Setup for profitability analysis ......................................................................... 62 5.3.1 Short time-period ...................................................................................... 63 5.3.2 Bound water levels ................................................................................... 63 5.3.3 Startup cost ................................................................................................ 63 6 5.3.4 Limits ........................................................................................................... 64 5.4 Intra-day and capacity products ..................................................................... 65 5.5 Generating input data ....................................................................................... 66 5.5.1 Different river models ............................................................................... 66 5.5.2 Inflow scenarios ........................................................................................ 69 5.5.3 Price scenarios .......................................................................................... 71 5.6 Calibrating results ............................................................................................. 74 6.1 Income ................................................................................................................ 76 6.2 Spillage ............................................................................................................... 80 6.3 Flexibility of the system .................................................................................... 82 6.4 Long-term profitability ....................................................................................... 84 APPENDICES APPENDIX I: Protected water systems in Finland. APPENDIX II: Hydropower plants in Finland. APPENDIX III: Calculated monthly RSDs. APPENDIX IV: All price scenarios. APPENDIX V: Percentage change of income from Base model in all scenarios. APPENDIX VI: Spillage hour counts. APPENDIX VII: Power generation profile samples from Q3V2 scenario. APPENDIX VIII: Flexible capacity up and down in all scenarios and models. APPENDIX IX: Year scenarios. 7 LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVARIONS C Generator investment cost [mill. €] P Electric power [W] c Cost factor g Gravitational constant [9,81 m2/s] q Discharge, Discharge capacity [m3/s] h Plant head [m] η Efficiency ρ Density [kg/m3] AC Alternating current AVG Average CHP Combined heat and power CO2 Carbon dioxide DC Direct current ENTSO-E European network
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