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SPECIAL REPORT

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: when victory is won before the Election Campaign

Lisbon, February 2016

In collaboration with:

BARCELONA BOGOTA BUENOS AIRES LIMA MADRID MEXICO CITY MIAMI PANAMA CITY QUITO RIO J SAO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

1. INTRODUCTION

“I will be as restrained as possible in spending. My campaign will be funded solely and exclusively by the subsidy from the State. I will not accept donations from parties, companies or individuals, only the work 1. INTRODUCTION and collaboration of volunteers”. 2. THE CAMPAIGN IN NUMBERS 3. “ONE MAN SHOW”: THE The words of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa at the launch of his candidacy CANDIDATE WITHOUT for the Presidency of the Portuguese Republic in early November 2015 BILLBOARDS anticipated what would be his major focus for the election campaign: 4. A PRECEDENT SET: WHAT WILL he himself and his personal reputation, born of the combination of CAMPAIGNS BE LIKE IN THE an accomplished academic career, along with the political activity and FUTURE? HOW IMPORTANT IS THE REPUTATION OF constant presence in the national media. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES? AUTHORS What has happened in the last few weeks in is in fact a case study: a candidate who threw his hat into the ring, for the first time in democratic history, without “posters” or “propaganda”, without “an anthem or a flag”, without a party machinery or support, with only two advisors who helped achieve a victory in the first round with 52 % of the votes of the Portuguese people. However, he managed to translate the image of credibility that he has cleverly created over the past years in the public sphere.

In this report in partnership with CISION , we analyze the impact of communication and media coverage of the various candidates and the “phenomenon” of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's victory.

Figure 1. Presidential elections in Portugal: percentage of votes per candidate

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa – 52 % 0,84% 0,30% 2,16% 0,23% António Sampaio da Nóvoa – 22,89 % 3,28% Marisa Matias – 10,13 % 3,95% Maria de Belém – 4,24 % 4,24% Edgar Silva – 3,95 % Vitorino Silva – 3,28 % Paulo de Morais – 2,16 % 10,13% Henrique Neto – 0,84 % 52% Jorge Sequeira – 0,30 % Cândido Ferreira – 0,23 % 22,89%

Source: Secretaria Geral do Ministério da Administração Interna - www.presidenciais2016.mai.gov.pt

2 MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

2. THE CAMPAIGN IN This result is explained by NUMBERS Marcelo's ability to capitalize on the public conversation In this post-campaign period, around him and his actions, we look to the numbers in the but does not mean that the hope that the numbers will be candidate has been proactive relatively revealing, since the in launching topics and “Marcelo Rebelo de candidates offered little in the proposals for debate. In fact, Sousa took on the way of words and messages. these were very low among all candidates. leading role in media A data analysis compiled by and had the highest CISION on each candidate's Third place is held by Maria de number of mentions media impact during the period Belém Roseira, with roughly from the 10th to 24th January 17 % of media spots that largely (26 %)” 2016, allows us to conclude, that reflects the controversies Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa took in which she was involved, on the leading role in media especially regarding lifetime and had the highest number subsidies, already close to of mentions (26 %) - almost 8 Election Day which resulted in percentage points higher than a negative reputation reflected the candidate with the second in the election results. She highest presence, António was third in media visibility Sampaio da Nóvoa (who also but finished in fourth place received the second highest with regard to the votes of the number of votes). Portuguese people (Figure 2).

1 OTS: Number of times an article may impact or broadcast a message to its audien- ce. Calculation of the OTS differs from method to method based on their relevance, audience and time of broadcast.

Figure 2. Media presence of the candidates during the period of 10-24 January

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

António Cândido Edgar Henrique Jorge Marcelo Maria de Marisa Paulo Vitorino Sampaio Ferreira Silva Neto Sequeira Rebelo de Belém Matias Morais Silva da Nóvoa Sousa Roseira

Source: Cision

3 MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Figure 3. Presence of the candidates in social networks during the period of 10-24 In the world of social January networks, Maria de Belém

30% Roseira was the most talked about among internet 25% users, but for all the wrong 20% reasons, with the controversy over lifetime subsidies 15% being the focus of criticism 10% and comments on social

5% networks. Marcelo appears in second place and Marisa 0% Matias in third.

Marisa Matias ran a good António Cândido Edgar Henrique Jorge Marcelo Maria de Marisa Paulo Vitorino digital campaign, directed Sampaio Ferreira Silva Neto Sequeira Rebelo de Belém Matias Morais Silva at a young public, highly da Nóvoa Sousa Roseira participative and present in Source: Cision social media. Marcelo already had a Facebook page, but Figure 4. Budget of the electoral campaigns of each political party and their was not present on Twitter actual results (Figure 3). CAMPAIGN BUDGET (IN €) NUMBER OF VOTES SAMPAIO DA NÓVOA 742.000 1.061.196 The importance of Marcelo's CÂNDIDO FERREIRA 60.000 10.576 reputation is further evident EDGAR SILVA 750.000 182.978 in the discrepancy between HENRIQUE NETO 275.000 38.956 the costs of each candidate's JORGE SEQUEIRA 123.500 13.768 election campaign and their MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA 157.000 2.411.319 actual results (as shown 650.000 196.695 MARIA DE BELÉM ROSEIRA in the table and graphs MARISA MATIAS 454.659,5 469.507 below). António Sampaio da PAULO DE MORAIS 93.000 99.966 VITORINO SILVA 50.000 152.082 Nóvoa and Edgar Silva (the Communist Party candidate Source: Tribunal Constitucional who turned out to be one of the big losers of these Figure 5. Budget for each candidate regarding Presidential elections (in €) elections) led in budgeted expenses, approximately 01 00000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 750,000 euros, while Marcelo

Sampaio da Nóvoa predicted a lower budget: Cândido Ferreira 157,000 euros in total Edgar Silva (Figures 4 and 5). Henrique Neto Jorge Sequeira Marcelo Rebelo da Sousa María de Belém Roseira Marisa Matias Paulo de Morais Vitorino Silva

Source: Tribunal Constitucional

4 MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

3. “ONE MAN SHOW”: THE Regarding the campaign issues, CANDIDATE WITHOUT and with a staff of only two BILLBOARDS people, Marcelo was careful with his messages: He spoke with The President-elect of the conviction and authenticity, Republic did not need to invest noted the importance of in posters or giveaways to win building a consensus and the vote. He focused first on his the capacity to ensure the own characteristics that, over stability that is necessary for the years, he broadcast in his the country. Otherwise, it was weekly comments on primetime a campaign weak on public television news programs and debate. No major topics of that brought him an unparalleled discussion were launched; no reputation among the Portuguese: significant accusations or direct great communication skills and confrontations emerged. Marcelo empathy, intellectual brilliance was simultaneously courageous and active participation in and daring through the broad political and civic life in Portugal. independence he demonstrated and happy to become the winner with new ways of doing Figure 6. Relationship between campaign budget (in €) that had an important and number of votes obtained representation. 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 With a semi-presidential system, 742000 the campaigns for Presidential Sampaio da Nóvoa 1061196 Elections in Portugal are 60000 traditionally focused on the Cândido Ferreira 10576 candidates as individual figures Edgar Silva 750000 rather than on their programs or 182978 275000 Henrique Neto 38956 Figure 6: How much did the candidates 123500 Jorge Sequeira invest to win each vote? The result of 13768 this exercise (dividing the total cam- Marcelo Rebelo da Sousa 157000 paign budget by the number of votes) is 2411319 curious and it helps, in a way, to have an María de Belém Roseira 650000 overall idea of the rate of “return” that 196695 each candidate received from the inves- tment made. In the case of the winner, Marisa Matias 454659,5 469507 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, each vote has a “symbolic cost” of 6 cents; Sampaio de Paulo de Morais 99956 93000 Nóvoa “paid” 70 cents; and the most ex- pensive votes were those of Edgar Silva Vitorino Silva 50000 and Maria de Belém Roseira which had 152082 to invest more than 3 euros per vote.

Campaign budget (in €) Number of votes

Source: Tribunal Constitucional and Secretaria Geral do Ministério da Administração Interna

5 MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

political beliefs. Those of the 24th well-known personality - even of January were unprecedented before discussing ideas and because this peculiarity brought political trends - and created the together two other aspects. necessary impartiality for the Firstly, the fact that most of the issues of today and for the major candidates were independent of center oriented political parties, to parties or party factions (at least pick up votes on the left and right. “The winner of the officially) – as was the case of the Marcelo admitted to not having elections was clever to two who received the most votes. a campaign “because he was not create, in a sustainable Secondly, the fact that the leading running for the Government” and candidate was a figure who had said he wanted to be innovative and balanced manner, been present in the Portuguese in the way this process was a valuable public media for over 40 years, first managed. brand” in and since 2000, in weekly political programs To summarize, the winner of the (ultimately lasting up to one hour) elections was clever to create, in a on the country's most watched sustainable and balanced manner, public television channel. Suffice a valuable public brand, whose to say that when he announced investment did not require a great his entry into the race for deal of political communication Presidency in October, he collected at the decisive moment to run for 62 % of the vote. the Presidency of the Republic.

It cannot be said that this has Let's look at Marcelo as a been a short campaign and that traditional business: The brand it has not been strategically had been created, it had a market weighted: The President-elect value and the product only needed of the Republic showed the to be subjected to a national test. importance of being a To do so, by his choice he went to work on the relationship with his Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in "Jornal das 8", TVI main stakeholders (the Portuguese people) and that was the main reason why he took to the streets: to strengthen the closeness that already existed – albeit mediated through a small screen.

Marcelo proved to be a true one man show: he toured the country by taxi, with no entourage, without a machine behind him and being proud of his “minimalist” campaign, as he called it several times. On Sunday of the elections, when he delivered his victory speech, there were no campaign colors, names or slogans: There was only Marcelo Rebelo Source: Cision

6 MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

de Sousa and several Portuguese The “phenomenon”, now under flags flown in the background. For analysis, set a precedent in all these reasons, it was classified communication and political as a true “phenomenon” in the marketing and in the history of Portuguese political scene. election campaigns in Portugal. Will parades, flags, rallies and 4. A PRECEDENT SET: WHAT caravans continue to exist? Are “The “phenomenon”, WILL CAMPAIGNS BE LIKE IN campaigns as we know them a now under analysis, THE FUTURE? HOW IMPORTANT thing of the past? Innovation was set a precedent in IS THE REPUTATION OF an asset that has proved fruitful. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES? The new online platforms show communication and that political communication political marketing Reputation is increasingly is increasingly starting to take and in the history of one of the primary tools for on different directions, that creation of value in our society. the debates are based on new election campaigns in Politicians must not neglect premises and that “a minimalist Portugal. Will parades, this concern and “Professor campaign” can be a winning one. flags, rallies and Marcelo” brings together a set Of course, provided that the of features that favor him: He itinerary has been well handled caravans continue to is a successful individual, with and the candidate's authenticity is exist?” an excellent academic record, consistent. he is cherished by the electorate and he exudes self-confidence. On one hand, presidential On top of all of this, is the fact elections are, in some kind of that he has been distanced from way, a personality contest. In this the national political office for occasion, we may say that the some time (he was of winner was not only a politician, Parliamentary Affairs in 1982 and but a national television star. Secretary-General of the Social On the other hand, if the vote is Democratic Party from 1996 to based on the relationship of trust 1999), which means that he has established between the candidates not been under public scrutiny and the electorate, focusing on at this level. We know that the building reputation has to be a dichotomy between their own priority. From what we see, the beliefs and decision-making strategy worked. And this is a case with the pressure of seeking study that will in fact go into the electorate is one of the things manuals of communicators and that directly affects a politician's all professionals committed to reputation. building reputation.

Glossary: Media impact: Total number of opportunities to see (OTS) produced with the potential audience, based on the verified cumulative audience; in the case of media through the news, counted on the basis of readers, internet users, listeners and viewers; in social networks, spontaneous reports from individuals via hashtags. For media, the source are the audiences of each media organization, and for social net- works it is the network of influence of each identified individual, weighted with the average probability of impact with their respective audiences, taking into account the characteristics of each social channel. It indicates the media potential of the commu- nication taking into account the pressure of the message with the public. Each candidate's presence in the media is assessed in situations in which they have the leading role; news stories in which the leading role is divided between one or more candidates are excluded from the study.

7 . MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA: WHEN VICTORY IS WON BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Authors Carlos Ruiz is director at LLORENTE & CUENCA Portugal. A specialist in Public Affairs and institutional political com- munication, Carlos has extensive experience in relations- hips with the public administrations in Portugal, and Latin America. He worked for the Ministry of Environment in Spain and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Panama. He holds an undergraduate degree in Humanities and Journa- lism and has graduate degrees in election campaign management and international conflict resolution. [email protected]

Daniela Oliveira is consultant at LLORENTE & CUENCA Portugal. With an undergraduate degree in Journalism from ESCS [School of Communication and Media Studies] and a Masters in Political Science and Foreign Affairs, she was a for 4 years at TVI and then embarked on an international experience in promotional communication of emerging economies, through ASAP Worldwide, and coordi- nated projects in Nigeria, and Armenia. Before joining LLORENTE & CUENCA, she was in New York for an internship on external commu- nication at the office of the United Nations SRSG on Violence against Children. [email protected]

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