Overview of the Decadal Review

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

for presentation at

workshop on Polar Snowfall Hydrology Mission Planning Meeting

McGill University

June 26, 2007 Organization of Study

• Executive Committee (18 members) • Seven Thematically-Organized Panels 1. Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs 2. Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics and Biodiversity 3. Weather (incl. space weather and chemical weather) 4. Climate Variability and Change 5. Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle 6. Human Health and Security 7. Solid-Earth Hazards, Resources and Dynamics Executive Committee 1. Rick Anthes, UCAR, co-chair, atmospheric science 2. Berrien Moore, U. New Hampshire, co-chair, biogeochemical cycling 3. Jim Anderson, Harvard, atmospheric science, chemistry 4. Bruce Marcus, TRW (ret), 5. Bill Gail, Ball Microsoft Virtual Earth, civil space and IT 6. Susan Cutter, U. South Carolina, hazards and risk 7. Tony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, 8. Kathie Kelly, U. Washington, physical oceanography/ obs 9. Neal Lane, Rice, policy 10. Warren Washington, NCAR, climate 11. Mary Lou Zoback, RMS, solid earth

Panel Chairs 12. Tony Janetos, PNL/U. Md., ecology and land remote sensing 13. Brad Hagar, MIT, solid earth 14. Ruth DeFries, U. Maryland, land cover change and remote sensing 15. Susan Avery, CIRES and CU, , space weather 16. Eric Barron, U. Texas, climate, paleoclimate 17. Dennis Lettenmaier, U. Washington, hydrology 18. Mark Wilson, U. Michigan, infectious disease and remote sensing Charge to Panels

1. Identify needs and opportunities for observations from space to advance Earth science and applications for the next decade and beyond; 2. Propose programs or missions to meet these needs and opportunities, in priority order; 3. Describe each proposed mission in terms of • Contributions to science and applications • How it meets prioritization criteria • Benefits to society • Technical aspects •Schedule •Costs 4. Briefly identify needs for obs that are needed to complement space-based obs 5. Identify essential other components (telemetry, data processing, management and stewardship) Criteria for Prioritization

• Contributes to the important scientific questions facing Earth sciences today (scientific merit-discovery, exploration); • Contributes to applications and policy making (societal benefits); • Contributes to long-term observational record of the Earth; • Complements other observational systems, including national and international plans; • Affordable (cost considerations, either total costs for mission or costs per year); • Degree of readiness (technical, resources, people); • Risk mitigation and strategic redundancy (backup of other critical systems); • Makes a significant contribution to more than one thematic application or scientific discipline. Above not in priority order Water Panel priorities

Mission Mission Ranking Parameters Measured RFI Source Mission(s) Concept Name 1 Surface Freeze/Thaw Hydros, WOWS, MOSS Soil Moisture Soil Moisture Active Passive 2 River and Lake WaTER Surface Water Elevation Hydrosphere Mapper or and Ocean Ocean Circulation OOLM Topography 3 Snow Water CLPP Snow and Cold Equivalent Land processes 4 Water Vapor AIRS, GPS RO Water vapor Wind Speed and WOWS transport Direction 5 Sea-Ice Thickness, ICESAT++ ICESAT 2 Glacier Surface InSAR Elevation Glacier Velocity 6 Ground Water GRACE follow-on, GRACE 2 Glacier Mass Balance ICESat++ Ocean Mass Distribution

7 Inland and Coastal FLORA, SAVII Inland and Water Quality coastal water quality FINAL REPORT

• Recommends a Path Forward that Restores US Leadership in Earth Science and Applications and averts the Potential Collapse of the System of Environmental • Presents an Integrated Suite of Missions – Panel recommendations rolled-up – Missions sequenced – Overall cost matched to anticipated resources plus reasonable growth • Highest Priorities of Each Panel Preserved • Some Guidance on How To Handle Budget or Technology Development Problems KEY AGENCY RECOMMENDATIONS (for currently planned observing system)

• NASA-continuity of precipitation and land cover – Launching GPM by 2012 – Obtaining a replacement to data before 2012. • The committee also recommends that NASA continue to seek cost-effective, innovative means for obtaining land cover change information. MAIN RECOMMENDATION (for next decade)

• NOAA and NASA should undertake a set of 17 recommended missions, phased over the next decade MAIN RECOMMENDATION (for next decade) • NOAA research to operations – Vector ocean winds – GPS radio occultation temperature, water vapor and electron density profiles – Total solar irradiance/and Earth Radiation (NPP) and restored to NPOESS •NASA – 15 missions in small, medium and large categories River Changes in Snow pack discharge aquifers and accumulation and estimates deep ocean Snowmelt extent currents Snow water SWOT GRACE-II equivalent, snow Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2016-2020 depth, and snow wetness Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor Temperature Dynamics of profiles and humidity water storage in profiles seasonal snow packs

GPSRO PATH SCLP Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2016-2020 Launch 2016-2020

Societal Challenge: Freshwater Availability Improved precipitation and drought forecasts to improve water resource management Linkage between Cloud and terrestrial water, aerosol energy, and height carbon cycle Three SMAP ACE dimensional Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2013-2016 Temperature tropospheric and humidity wind profiles High profiles Pressure/ resolution temperature/ ocean vector Hurricane water vapor Sea surface winds wind fields profiles temperature

3D-Winds Launch 2020+ XOVWM GPSRO PATH Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2016-2020

Societal Challenge: Improved Weather Prediction Longer-term, more reliable weather forecasts Sea level High measurements Global high resolution extended into resolution ocean coastal zones topography vector Snow pack Ocean winds accumulation eddies and Detection and Snowmelt XOVWM currents of active Launch 2013-2016 faults extent SWOT Changes in Launch 2013-2016 LIST SCLP Earth’s surface Launch 2016-2020 Launch 2016-2020 Nutrients and and movement water status of magma of vegetation, Temperature Three DESDynI soil type and and humidity dimensional Launch 2010-2013 health profiles tropospheric wind profiles Pressure/ Processes temperature/ indicating Sea surface Hurricane water vapor volcanic temperature wind fields profiles eruption GPSRO HyspIRI PATH 3D-Winds Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2016-2020 Launch 2020+

Societal Challenge: Extreme Event Warnings Longer-term, more reliable storm track forecasts and intensification predictions, volcanic eruption and landslide warnings to enable effective evacuation planning. Nutrients and water CO status of vegetation, Ocean eddies 2 measurements: soil type and health and currents Day/night, all HyspIRI seasons, all SWOT Launch 2013-2016 latitudes Launch 2013-2016 Height and Inventory of global Dynamics of coastal structure of forests CO sources and ecosystems, river 2 sinks DESDynI plumes, tidal fronts Launch 2010-2013 ASCENDS GEO-CAPE Launch 2013-2016 Soil freeze/ Launch 2013-2016 thaw state Organic Improved estimates of material in Soil moisture effect coastal upwelling and surface ocean on vegetation nutrient availability layers

SMAP XOVWM ACE Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2013-2016

Societal Challenge: Ecosystem Services Improved land use, agricultural, and ocean productivity forecasts to improve planting and harvesting schedules and fisheries management Three dimensional tropospheric wind profiles

3D-Winds Launch 2020+ Identification of Cloud and human vs. natural Vertical profile aerosol sources for aerosols of ozone and height and ozone precursors key ozone precursors Observation of air Global aerosol Aerosol and pollution transport in and air pollution cloud types and North, Central, and transportation and properties South America processes

GEO-CAPE ACE GACM Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2016-2020

Societal Challenge: Air Quality More reliable air quality forecasts to enable effective urban pollution management. High resolution ocean vector winds Three dimensional XOVWM Temperature tropospheric Launch 2013-2016 and humidity wind profiles profiles Hurricane Ocean Pressure/ wind fields eddies and temperature/ currents water vapor Sea surface profiles temperature 3D-Winds SWOT Launch 2020+ GPSRO Launch 2013-2016 PATH Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2016-2020

Societal Challenge: Improved Extreme Storm Warnings Longer-term, more reliable storm track forecasts and intensification predictions to enable effective evacuation planning Temperature Ocean and humidity Linkage eddies and High profiles between currents resolution terrestrial water, ocean vector Sea level energy, and winds Sea surface measurements temperature carbon cycle extended into XOVWM coastal zones Launch 2013-2016 SMAP PATH Launch 2010-2013 SWOT CO2 measurements: Launch 2016-2020 Launch 2013-2016 Day/night, all seasons, all Pressure/ Spectra to latitudes Three temperature/ identify dimensional Inventory of global water vapor locations of tropospheric CO sources and profiles natural 2 wind profiles sinks resources GPSRO HyspIRI ASCENDS 3D-Winds Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2013-2016 Launch 2020+

Societal Challenge: Energy Security Improved energy security through more effective oil and gas exploration, safer extraction through improved marine forecasts, optimized placement of wind farms through measurement of global winds, better energy conservation through improved heating/cooling forecasts, and support of carbon trading and energy policy. Changes in carbon storage in vegetation DESDynI Launch 2010-2013 Aerosol and cloud Pressure/ Estimate of types and temperature/ flux of low- properties water vapor salinity ice ACE profiles out of Arctic basin Launch 2013-2016 GPSRO ICESat-II

Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2010-2013 CO2 measurements: Day/night, all Vertical profile Absolute spectrally seasons, all latitudes of ozone and resolved IR radiance key ozone precursors Incident solar and Connection between spectrally resolved climate and CO2 reflected irradiance exchange GACM ASCENDS CLARREO Launch 2016-2020 Launch 2010-2013 Launch 2013-2016

Societal Challenge: Climate Prediction Robust estimates of primary climate forcings for improved climate forecasts, including local predictions of the effects of climate change 17 Missions (Red = <$900 M; Green = $300-$600 M; Blue = <$300 M)

Decadal Survey Rough Cost Mission Mission Description Orbit Instruments Estimate Timeframe 2010 - 2013—Missions listed by cost

CLARREO Solar and Earth radiation characteristics for LEO, SSO Broadband radiometer $65 M (NOAA portion) understanding climate forcing

GPSRO High accuracy, all-weather temperature, water LEO GPS receiver $150 M vapor, and electron density profiles for weather, climate, and space weather

Timeframe 2013 – 2016

XOVWM Sea surface wind vectors for weather and ocean MEO, SSO Backscatter radar $350 M ecosystems Decadal Survey Rough Cost Mission Mission Description Orbit Instruments Estimate Timeframe 2010 – 2013, Missions listed by cost

CLARREO Solar radiation: spectrally resolved forcing LEO, Absolute, spectrally- $200 M (NASA and response of the climate system Precessing resolved interferometer portion)

SMAP Soil moisture and freeze/thaw for weather LEO, SSO L-band radar $300 M and water cycle processes L-band radiometer

ICESat-II Ice sheet height changes for climate LEO, Non- Laser altimeter $300 M change diagnosis SSO

DESDynI Surface and ice sheet deformation for LEO, SSO L-band InSAR $700 M understanding natural hazards and Laser altimeter climate; vegetation structure for ecosystem health

Timeframe: 2013 – 2016, Missions listed by cost

HyspIRI Land surface composition for agriculture LEO, SSO Hyperspectral $300 M and mineral characterization; vegetation spectrometer types for ecosystem health

ASCENDS Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2 LEO, SSO Multifrequency laser $400 M column integrals for climate emissions

SWOT Ocean, lake, and river water levels for LEO, SSO Ka-band wide swath radar $450 M ocean and inland water dynamics C-band radar

GEO- Atmospheric gas columns for air quality GEO High and low spatial $550 M CAPE forecasts; ocean color for coastal resolution hyperspectral ecosystem health and climate emissions imagers

ACE Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate and LEO, SSO Backscatter lidar $800 M water cycle; ocean color for open ocean Multiangle polarimeter biogeochemistry Doppler radar Timeframe: 2016 -2020, Missions listed by cost

LIST Land surface topography for landslide LEO, SSO Laser altimeter $300 M hazards and water runoff

PATH High frequency, all-weather temperature GEO MW array spectrometer $450 M and humidity soundings for weather forecasting and SSTa

GRACE-II High temporal resolution gravity fields for LEO, SSO Microwave or laser ranging $450 M tracking large-scale water movement system

SCLP Snow accumulation for fresh water LEO, SSO Ku and X-band radars $500 M availability K and Ka-band radiometers

GACM Ozone and related gases for LEO, SSO UV spectrometer $600 M intercontinental air quality and stratospheric IR spectrometer ozone layer prediction

3D-Winds Tropospheric winds for weather forecasting LEO, SSO Doppler lidar $650 M (Demo) and pollution transport

[1] Cloud-independent, high temporal resolution, lower accuracy SST to complement, not replace, global operational high-accuracy SST measurement

The NASA Response to the Decadal Review NASA Earth Science Program: Rapid Return to 2000 Funding Levels

2500 Prior Commitments Future Program 2000 Decadal Survey 1500 Missions

$ Million 1000

500 Mission Supporting

0 199619992002200520082011201420172020 Year NASA Earth Science Program: A Substantial Funding Decline

2500 Prior Commitments FY08 Request 2000

1500 Missions

1000 FY06 $ Million

500 Mission Supporting

0 199619982000200220042006200820102012 Fiscal Year So what is the solution a) Testimony to key congressional committees (much of this has already happened) b) University (and other non-governmental) interaction with federal affairs offices/representatives -- Most university researchers don’t know these people -- Need to convey information in a concise “USA Today” form c) Proposed statement from AGU (discussions underway) d) White paper or other response (including position statement) from this meeting e) Concerted action among key universities – possible meeting with congressional staff

AGU position statement on NASA earth and space sciences (May 2005)

“AGU calls for the U.S. Administration, Congress, and NASA to continue their commitment to innovative Earth and space science programs. This commitment has placed the U.S. in an international leadership position .. it is, however, threatened by financial demands placed on NASA by … the space shuttle, space station, and the Moon-Mars initiative.

… Earth and space sciences have become a lower priority at NASA. NASA's proposed 2006 budget reduces science research by $1.2 billion over the next five years … These cuts will decimate effective programs …. These losses will degrade our weather forecasting, search and rescue, and life and property protection capabilities …

NASA is being asked to do more than it can with the resources provided. Shifting financial resources from science threatens vital investments and capabilities …. AGU asks the U.S. Administration, Congress, and NASA to renew their commitment to Earth and space science research.”