(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1243

USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CUWS Outreach Journal 1243 2 December 2016

Feature Item: “China’s Future SSBN Command and Control Structure.” Authored by David C. Logan; published by Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University; Strategic Forum 299; November 28, 2016; 12 pages. http://inss.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratforum/SF-299.pdf?ver=2016-11-28-093723-680 Key Points China is developing its first credible sea-based nuclear forces. This emergent nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force will pose unique challenges to a country that has favored tightly centralized control over its nuclear deterrent. The choices China makes about SSBN command and control will have important implications for strategic stability. Despite claims that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force will be responsible for all Chinese nuclear forces, Chinese SSBNs currently appear to be under the control of the PLA Navy. However, China may choose to revise its command and control structures as its SSBNs begin armed deterrent patrols. There are three broad command and control models, allocating varying degrees of authority to the PLA Navy or the Rocket Force. China’s decisions about SSBN command and control will be mediated by operational, bureaucratic, and political considerations. A hybrid approach to command and control, with authority divided between the navy and the Rocket Force, would be most conducive to supporting strategic stability.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. Missing Cold War Nuclear Bomb Remains a Mystery after Canadian Navy Investigates Object Found by Diver

U.S. Counter-WMD 1. Defense Ministry Kicks Off Study on Adopting THAAD Missile Shield 2. Pentagon Develops New Missile Defense Interceptor Able to Destroy Multiple ICBM Threats 3. China Warns Japan against THAAD Deployment 4. THAAD Deployment Will Move Forward Despite Scandal: Pentagon 5. The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency Will Test-Fire its New Larger SM-3IIA Interceptor Missile in Space

U.S. Arms Control 1. Spot Me If You Can: Russia's Brand New Nuke Train to Be Undetectable 2. Russia Destroys 96.3% of Chemical Weapons Stockpile 3. Russia Ready to Take Part in Work on New Arms Control Agreements — Diplomat

Asia/Pacific 1. Seoul to Reinforce Military Organization in Charge of N. Korean WMD Threats 2. Russian Expert Says Trump Administration May Start Direct Dialogue with North Korea 3. Expert: Chinese Air Force Capable of Simultaneous Combat on Different Fronts 4. China Military Deeply Concerned by Japan-South Korea Pact 5. S. Korea Braces for NK Provocation after Sanctions 6. China Firmly Opposes DPRK's Nuclear Test, Calls for Early Resumption of Six-Party Talks 7. Lotte Faces Massive Tax Probe in China After THAAD Decision 8. N.K. Nukes Aimed for Reunification on its Own Terms: Expert 9. North Korea Rejects UN Resolution, Vows Stronger Self-Defence Measures

Europe/Russia 1. Russian Senator Promises Nuclear Response to NATO Expansion 2. Russia to Develop Super-Heavy Class Rocket for Building Station on Moon

Middle East 1. No New Talks between Iran, US on JCPOA: Spokesman 2. Report: Nuclear Material Said Stolen from Iran Could Yield 'Dirty Bomb' 3. Iranian Leader Criticizes US Sanctions Renewal 4. Tehran 'Might Change Legislation' to Give Russia Permanent Military Base in Iran 5. Iran Braced for US Breach of JCPOA: Nuclear Chief 6. Reports on Missing Iranian Nuclear Device Baseless: Informed Source 7. Iran’s Navy Geared to Cross Atlantic Ocean: Commander 8. Iran Threatens to Up Enrichment amid Concerns over Sanctions Extension 9. Extension of Anti-Iran Sanctions ‘Clear Breach’ of JCPOA: Nuclear Chief

India/Pakistan 1. General Qamar Javed Bajwa Named New Pakistan Army Chief 2. Indian Navy Increases Vigil as China Deploys Nuclear Submarine in Pak Waters

Commentary 1. When Ministers Think Aloud 2. Deciphering PRC’s Stance on THAAD in South Korea: A Chinese First Strike Policy in Asia? 3. China Must Work to Render THAAD Void 4. Chairman Xi Abandons Banning the Bomb 5. New Face Leading Old Mindset 6. [Editorial] Now Is the Time to Find Alternatives to Solving the North Korean Nuclear Issue Return to Top

The London Telegraph – London, U.K. Missing Cold War Nuclear Bomb Remains a Mystery after Canadian Navy Investigates Object Found by Diver By Chris Graham 26 November 2016 A Cold War nuclear bomb is still missing after it turned out a diver's underwater discovery was not the atomic weapon as first thought. The mystery of a "missing nuke" in Canada has baffled historians for more than half a century. Ever since an American B-36 Bomber crashed near British Columbia during a secret training mission in 1950, the nuclear projectile on board has never been found. Earlier this month, a commercial diver raised hopes that the Mark IV bomb had been discovered after he stumbled across an object in the waters off Canada's west coast. "I found something really weird, I think it's a UFO," Sean Smyrichinsky joked after he came ashore following the discovery near Banks Island. It was "bigger than a king-size bed", flat on top with a rounded bottom and had a hole in the middle just "like a bagel," he told the BBC. One of his friends, who had been in the area all his life, suggested: "Maybe you found that nuke they lost here in the 50s!" The Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) thought it merited further investigation and dispatched naval ships to the site on Tuesday. Along with assistance from the diver, the HMCS Yellowknife investigated the wreckage, only to determine that the object was just a piece of steel machinery. "We are pleased that HMCS Yellowknife was able to locate the object and determine that the object was not an unexploded military munition," said Commander Michele Tessier. Returning from the trip, Mr Smyrichinsky wrote on Facebook: "Measurements show it to be over 15ft across and the only bombs that meet that size & shape have never been used in this part of the world. But, they don't know what it is..." The bomber, which was on a mission to simulate a nuclear strike, was on its way to Carswell Air Force in Texas when its engines caught fire. The 17-person crew had to parachute out and five of them died. The plane crashed on land but the bomb was not found amidst the wreckage. Crew members have said they ditched the bomb in the ocean first. According to the American military, the bomb was packed with lead, uranium and TNT, but it was not capable of a nuclear explosion because it did not contain plutonium.

The Japan Times – Tokyo, Japan Defense Ministry Kicks Off Study on Adopting THAAD Missile Shield JIJI, KYODO November 27, 2016 The Defense Ministry has launched a full-fledged study into adopting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system developed by the United States. The ministry plans to set up a team for discussions on THAAD that will be headed by Deputy Defense Minister Kenji Wakamiya, sources said. The panel’s aim is to draw up specific measures by next summer to strengthen Japan’s missile defense system. The ministry had considered the possibility of deploying THAAD under the next medium-term defense buildup program from fiscal 2019 to 2023. But after more than 20 ballistic missile tests by the North this year, as well as the steady progress it has made in its quest to miniaturize nuclear warheads, the ministry is now aiming to introduce the ground-based system earlier, the sources said. Japan’s current two-tier missile defense system calls for first trying to shoot down a missile in space with SM-3 (Standard-Missile 3) interceptors mounted on Aegis destroyers and, in the event that fails, destroying it at an altitude of less than 20 km using the PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability-3) surface-to-air missile system. THAAD would be able to intercept a missile re-entering the atmosphere at a higher altitude than the PAC-3 can. The United States has decided to deploy the THAAD system at a military base in South Korea. If Japan introduces the system, that would enable effective THAAD operations and information- sharing to be conducted among the three allies, the sources said. The Defense Ministry also plans to introduce a ground-based missile defense system known as Aegis Ashore. Both systems face hurdles as each will cost hundreds of billions of yen and require public approval to adopt, the sources said. “It will not be easy to secure related budgets,” a senior ministry official said. Adoption of either system is also likely draw a backlash from China, the sources said. Beijing has angrily denounced Washington’s plan to deploy THAAD in South Korea as a serious threat to the region’s geopolitical balance.

In a separate move, Japan and Britain have reached the final stage of talks on an agreement that would allow their armed forces to provide logistical support to each other, a Japanese government source has said. The so-called Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement could be signed in January, as the two countries look to hold a meeting of their foreign and defense ministers in London, the source said Saturday. Any deal would pave the way for the Self-Defense Forces to provide ammunition to British forces in line with new Japanese security laws that expanded the SDF’s defensive role. It would also enable the two countries’ armed forces to share supplies during United Nations peacekeeping missions, international relief operations and joint exercises. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/27/national/politics-diplomacy/defense-ministry- kicks-off-study-adopting-thaad-missile-shield/#.WD8YmbRh1mA Return to Top

Warrior Scout.com – U.S. Pentagon Develops New Missile Defense Interceptor Able to Destroy Multiple ICBM Threats The Multi-Object Kill Vehicle can simultaneously destroy ICBMs and decoys with a single interceptor By KRIS OSBORN Monday, November 28, 2016 The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency is in the early phases of engineering a next-generation “Star Wars”-type technology able to knock multiple incoming enemy targets out of space with a single interceptor, officials said. The new system, called Multi-Object Kill Vehicle, or MOKV, is designed to release from a Ground Based Interceptor and destroy approaching Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles, or ICBMs -- and also take out decoys traveling alongside the incoming missile threat. “We will develop and test, by 2017, MOKV command and control strategies in both digital and hardware-in-the-loop venues that will prove we can manage the engagements of many kill vehicles on many targets from a single interceptor. We will also invest in the communication architectures and guidance technology that support this game-changing approach,” a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency, told Scout Warrior a few months ago. Decoys or countermeasures are missile-like structures, objects or technologies designed to throw off or confuse the targeting and guidance systems of an approaching interceptor in order to increase the probability that the actual missile can travel through to its target. If the seeker or guidance systems of a “kill vehicle” technology on a Ground Base Interceptor, or GBI, cannot discern an actual nuclear-armed ICBM from a decoy – the dangerous missile is more likely to pass through and avoid being destroyed. MOKV is being developed to address this threat scenario. The Missile Defense Agency has awarded MOKV development deals to Boeing, Lockheed and Raytheon as part of a risk-reduction phase able to move the technology forward, Lehner said.

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Steve Nicholls, Director of Advanced Air & Missile Defense Systems for Raytheon, told Scout Warrior the MOKV is being developed to provide the MDA with “a key capability for its Ballistic Missile Defense System - to discriminate lethal objects from countermeasures and debris. The kill vehicle, launched from the ground-based interceptor extends the ground-based discrimination capability with onboard sensors and processing to ensure the real threat is eliminated.” MOKV could well be described as a new technological step in the ongoing maturation of what was originally conceived of in the Reagan era as “Star Wars” – the idea of using an interceptor missile to knock out or destroy an incoming enemy nuclear missile in space. This concept was originally greeted with skepticism and hesitation as something that was not technologically feasible. Not only has this technology come to fruition in many respects, but the capability continues to evolve with systems like MOKV. MOKV, to begin formal product development by 2022, is being engineered with a host of innovations to include new sensors, signal processors, communications technologies and robotic manufacturing automation for high-rate tactical weapons systems, Nicholls explained. The trajectory of an enemy ICBM includes an initial “boost” phase where it launches from the surface up into space, a “midcourse” phase where it travels in space above the earth’s atmosphere and a “terminal” phase wherein it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere and descends to its target. MOKV is engineered to destroy threats in the “midcourse” phase while the missile is traveling through space. An ability to destroy decoys as well as actual ICBMs is increasingly vital in today’s fast-changing technological landscape because potential adversaries continue to develop more sophisticated missiles, countermeasures and decoy systems designed to make it much harder for interceptor missile to distinguish a decoy from an actual missile. As a result, a single intercept able to destroy multiple targets massively increases the likelihood that the incoming ICBM threat will actually be destroyed more quickly without needing to fire another Ground Based Interceptor. Raytheon describes its developmental approach as one that hinges upon what’s called “open- architecture,” a strategy designed to engineer systems with the ability to easily embrace and integrate new technologies as they emerge. This strategy will allow the MOKV platform to better adjust to fast-changing threats, Nicholls said. The MDA development plan includes the current concept definition phase, followed by risk reduction and proof of concept phases leading to a full development program, notionally beginning in fiscal year 2022, Nicholls explained. “This highly advanced and highly technical kill vehicle takes a true dedication of time and expertise to properly mature. It is essential to leverage advancements from other members of the Raytheon kill vehicle family, including the Redesigned Kill Vehicle,” Nicholls said. While the initial development of MOKV is aimed at configuring the “kill vehicle” for a GBI, there is early thinking about integrating the technology onto a Standard Missile-3, or SM-3, an interceptor missile also able to knock incoming ICBMs out of space. The SM-3 is also an exo-atmospheric "kill vehicle," meaning it can destroy short and intermediate range incoming targets; its "kill vehicle" has no explosives but rather uses kinetic energy to collide with and obliterate its target. The resulting impact is the equivalent to a 10-ton truck traveling at 600 mph, Raytheon statements said.

“Ultimately, these Multi-Object Kill Vehicles will revolutionize our missile defense architecture, substantially reducing the interceptor inventory required to defeat an evolving and more capable threat to the homeland,” an MDA official said. http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1670393-starwars-icbm-interceptor-hits-many- targets Return to Top

China Military.com – Beijing, China China Warns Japan against THAAD Deployment Source: China Military November 29, 2016 BEIJING, Nov. 29 (ChinaMil) -- Japan recently followed in ROK's steps to set about introducing the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system battery from the US. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, at its regular press conference on November 28, urged the Japanese side to act with caution and play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the region, rather than the opposite. Japan can deploy THAAD without Diet's approval According to Japanese media, the Japanese Defense Ministry has set up a panel to discuss ways to reinforce its missile defense system, including the introduction of THAAD and other new military equipment from the US. Sources familiar with the matter at the Japanese government said on November 20 that Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada plans to visit Guam in mid-December to hold final talks about THAAD deployment. The US put THAAD into use on its homeland in 2008. On year later, Japan's Mainichi Shimbun broke news that the Japanese Defense Ministry was discussing the possibility of purchasing THAAD from the US. Lv Yaodong from the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences confirmed Japan's plan to deploy the THAAD system in an interview, and said that according to the decision-making procedures in Japan, the proposal would be submitted by the Defense Ministry to the National Security Committee formed by the Cabinet for approval and then be implemented. It doesn't need to be discussed at the Japanese Diet. Unlike the ROK, Japan hasn't selected a location for THAAD yet, but after the Guam tour, Tomomi Inada may submit a plan to the Cabinet to discuss from a technical point of view how to deploy THAAD and whether to deploy it in Guam. Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, said in an interview that Japan revealed earlier its plan to join the ROK in deploying the THAAD, and now this plan is put in motion. DPRK is just an excuse According to Japanese media, the Defense Ministry will introduce THAAD to deal with "missile threats" from the DPRK.

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama But Lv Yaodong said that Japan's real purpose is to intensify deterrence against surrounding countries including China and Russia. Open information shows that the THAAD system is equipped with X-band radar, which has a detecting range of 2,000km and can quickly detect newly launched long-range ballistic missile. The system isn't just an anti-missile intercepting device because its monitoring scope is far beyond Japan's defense demand. The ROK and Japan just signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), under which they can share information directly and quickly. Lv said that after the two countries realized software connectivity, THAAD will push their hardware connectivity too and the establishment of the US-Japan-ROK anti-missile alliance. The anti-missile system is always a part of the "Asia Pacific rebalancing" strategy promoted by the Obama administration. According to Lv Yaodong, the anti-missile system was accelerated in the last days of Obama's term, and it will threaten the security and strategic interests of some countries in Northeast Asia. China calls for caution A reporter asked a long question at Chinese Foreign Ministry's regular press conference on November 28: "The Japanese Defense Ministry has set up a panel to discuss ways to reinforce its missile defense system. Issues including the introduction of THAAD and other new military equipment from the US will be discussed. Japan is also expected to nail down a blueprint on missile defense by next summer. What is China's response to that?" The Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang answered that China is concerned about the report and hopes the Japanese side will act with caution. He said China's position on the deployment of THAAD is clear and unchanged. Due to what happened in the history, Japan's move in the field of military and security is closely watched by its Asian neighbors and the international community. China hopes that the Japanese side will act with caution and play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the region, rather than the opposite. The current situation on the Korean Peninsula is complex and sensitive. Relevant parties should act in the interest of regional peace and stability and stay committed to resolving the relevant issue through political and diplomatic means, instead of making use of the issue in pursuit of things harmful for security of other countries and stability of the region, added Geng. Disclaimer: The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article are those of the author named Yue Feifei from the Beijing Youth Daily and do not reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn. http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2016-11/29/content_7383273.htm Return to Top

The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea THAAD Deployment Will Move Forward Despite Scandal: Pentagon By Jun Ji-hye November 30, 2016 The U.S. Defense Department said Tuesday that the planned deployment of a U.S. advanced anti- missile system to South Korea will move forward regardless of President Park Geun-hye's possible resignation or impeachment over the corruption scandal. "Our Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment continues," said Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook at a briefing. "Those remain ongoing, and the alliance continues to move forward with that plan." The remark was a response to a question whether Park's impeachment or resignation would affect the deployment. While opposition parties are speeding up their efforts to pass a motion to impeach Park, possibly this week, over the high profile political scandal involving Park and her longtime friend Choi Soon- sil, the President said Tuesday that she will leave the decision on the timing and method of her resignation up to the National Assembly. In July, Seoul and Washington announced a decision to deploy a THAAD battery here by next year to better deter evolving threats from North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. But since the scandal erupted in late October, which has considerably diluted Park's power as a top decision maker, concerns have been raised that the deployment may be derailed. The concerns come as opposition lawmakers have called into question the government's bungled management of the decision-making process as well as its official announcement, which caused severe criticism from local residents living in the area selected as the location for THAAD. Rep. An Min-suk of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea has recently raised suspicions that Choi may have intervened in the government decision to allow the U.S. Forces Korea to deploy THAAD. China has called for scrapping the decision, seeing THAAD, especially its powerful radar, as a threat to its nuclear deterrent and other security interests, despite repeated assurances from Washington that the system is designed only to defend against the North. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/12/116_219239.html Return to Top

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Scout Warrior.com – U.S. The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency Will Test-Fire its New Larger SM-3IIA Interceptor Missile in Space The SM-3 IIA can hit bigger targets, such as incoming enemy ballistic missiles, at longer distances than previous SM-3 interceptor missiles By KRIS OSBORN November 30, 2016 The Missile Defense Agency and Raytheon will soon fire a new SM-3 missile variant into space to destroy an approaching enemy missile target - as a way to develop a new interceptor better able to detect and destroy ballistic missile threats approaching the earth’s atmosphere from space. The new missile, called the SM-3IIA, is slated to fire from a land-based missile defense site planned by the Pentagon for Poland by 2018, a Missile Defense Agency spokesman, told Scout Warrior in a statement. SM-3 missiles, first deployed on Navy ships, are exo-atmospheric interceptor missiles designed to destroy short and intermediate range incoming enemy ballistic missiles in above the earth’s atmosphere. With the weapon, threats are destroyed in space during what’s described as the midcourse phase of flight. "SM-3 IIA guided missile is a larger version of the SM-3 IB in terms of boosters and the kinetic warhead, which allows for increased operating time. The second and third stage boosters on the SM-IIA are 21" in diameter, allowing for longer flight times and engagements of threats higher in the exo-atmosphere," Missile Defense Agency spokesman Christopher Szkrybalo told Scout Warrior in a statement The SM-3 Block IIA is jointly developed by the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. and Japan are working together to prepare for the next flight test of the SM3-IIA, designated SFTM-01, Missile Defense Agency officials told Scout Warrior. The objective of this test is to demonstrate an intercept of a medium-range ballistic missile target by an SM-3-IIA launched from a U.S. Aegis BMD configured ship at the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Szkrybalo added. The planned Poland 2018 deployment is a key part of what the Pentagon calls the Aegis Ashore program, an effort to leverage the ship-based Aegis Radar for land-fired missile defense technology. As of last year, Aegis Ashore locations are already operational in Romania as part of the Obama administration’s European Phased Adaptive Approach program. The concept with the program is to engineer a land-based missile defense envelope, by using already successful and operational Aegis Radar and SM-3 technology, to better protect the European continent from potential ballistic missile threats. While not specifically identified for particular countries such as Iran, Russia or other potentially hostile Middle Eastern Countries, the sites are designed to protect Europe and NATO allies from the broadest possible range of missile threats to Europe. Land-based defensive intercept missiles in Romania and Poland, such as the SM-3 variants, could knock-out and destroy approaching missile threats aimed at European targets. The SM-3 is a kinetic energy warhead able to travel more than 600 miles per hour; it carries no explosive but instead relies on the sheer force of impact and collision to destroy an enemy target.

The new SM-3IIA missile builds upon a smaller existing operational variant of the missile called the SM-3IB, Raytheon officials said. “This is an extended capability of what we have for the SM-3 1B. Because of the larger missile this is a 21-inch air frame. we have a larger area of defended area coverage. we've also brought in some capability advancements into our kinetic warhead so now we have a higher sensitivity - so that is just better seeker,” Amy Cohen, Raytheon SM-3 Director, told Scout Warrior in an interview. The SM-3IIA is still finishing up development and is slated for flight test in the second half of this year. The MDA and Raytheon test will assess the kinetic warhead and missile seeker in a space environment, Cohen explained. An improved seeker can better see approaching targets from longer distances compared to the SM- 3 1B, she added. Some of these improvements engineered into the missile are described as “sensitivity increases” which use a larger focal plane array for detection and more computer processing power. The SM-3 Block IIA has completed two very successful fly-out tests—with no target missile launched, Missile Defense Agency officials said. “The first intercept flight test is planned for second half of this year. We will be engaging against a medium range ballistic missile - the next flight test we have will get us to the point where we have the trajectory very solid that we are there to support EPAA phase III in Poland,” Cohen added. In December of last year, Raytheon received a $543 million SM-3IIA production contract to build the missiles. Some of these missiles will be sent to Poland for the Aegis Ashore site planned for 2018, officials said. Production of the missile involves a collaborative effort between the Raytheon in the U.S. and Japan. Both Japan and Raytheon produce 50-percent of the missile which is then integrated by Raytheon. Meanwhile, Raytheon and the MDA are also upgrading the existing SM-3IB missile with improved software such that it can better detect and destroy new threats, Kenyon Hiser, Raytheon’s SM-3 Block IIA program manager. Some of the technologies designed for the SM-3IIA are being retrofitted onto the SM-3IB, he added. http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1677991-sm-3iia-interceptor-to-attack-missile- target Return to Top

Sputnik News – Russian Information Agency Spot Me If You Can: Russia's Brand New Nuke Train to Be Undetectable 23 November 2016 A Russian-made intercontinental ballistic missile outfitted onto the advanced Barguzin rail-based strategic missile complex has successfully passed a pop-up launch test for the first time. Defense analyst Victor Murakhovsky told Radio Sputnik that this unique system is virtually undetectable.

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia Destroys 96.3% of Chemical Weapons Stockpile November 28, 2016 THE HANGUE, November 28. /TASS/. Russia has destroyed 96.3% of its chemical weapons arsenals, Russian Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Georgy Kalamanov said on Monday at the 21st session of the Conference of the States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention. He said that by now Russia has destroyed more than 38,000 tonnes of poisonous substances. Six of Russia’s seven facilities have completed the disposal of chemical weapons, with only one facility, Kizner in the republic of Udmurtia, still operating. "Works at this facility are to be finished by 2020," he said. http://tass.com/politics/915160 Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia Ready to Take Part in Work on New Arms Control Agreements — Diplomat "Such agreements will promote strategic stability," Georgy Borisenkov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s North America department, said November 29, 2016 MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Russia is ready to take part in work on new arms control agreements on the principles of equality, a Russian Foreign Ministry official said on Monday. Speaking at an international research centers conference dubbed "The Crisis of the World Order: Experts’ Views", associated with the Primakov Readings forum, Georgy Borisenkov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s North America department, noted that it is not ruled out that a conflict in the present-day world may trigger the use of nuclear weapons. "It means that it is a topical task to speak about new weapons control agreements," he said. "Russia is ready to take part in work on such agreements on the basis of principles of equality," the Russian diplomat stressed. "Such agreements will promote strategic stability," he concluded. http://tass.com/world/915187 Return to Top

RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia Report Warns Pentagon of Hypersonic 'Missile Gap' with Russia, China 30 November 2016 Development of hypersonic missile technology by China and Russia would endanger America's global dominance, argues a new report by an Air Force panel. US efforts at developing the technology are falling behind due to a lack of funding, the report says. While the full report is classified, the executive summary was made public by the Committee on Future Air Force Needs for Defense Against High-Speed Weapon Systems – the panel’s official name. Hypersonic missiles are defined as weapons traveling at five times the speed of sound (Mach 5) or above and capable of maneuvering to avoid current missile defenses, which were developed to counter ballistic missiles. The “United States may be facing a threat from a new class of weapons that will effectively combine speed, maneuverability, and altitude in ways that could challenge this nation’s tenets of global vigilance, reach, and power,” Mark J. Lewis, the panel’s chair and a former US Air Force chief scientist, wrote in the introduction. Tasked with studying the ways to defend against hypersonic missiles – officially referred to as high- speed maneuvering weapons (HSMWs) – the committee concluded it was a tall order, and that the best defense may be the US developing its own offensive HSMWs. “These weapons appear to operate in regimes of speed and altitude, with maneuverability that could frustrate existing missile defense constructs and weapon capabilities,” the report says, adding that China and Russia are already flight-testing HSMWs that may pose a danger to both US forces overseas as well as the continental United States.

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea Seoul to Reinforce Military Organization in Charge of N. Korean WMD Threats November 27, 2016 The South Korean military will strengthen its preparedness against increasing North Korean nuclear and missile threats by forming a new organization, multiple government sources said Sunday. The sources said the Joint Chiefs of Staff will seek to expand what is currently a department handling threats of weapons of mass destruction into the tentatively named "North Korean Nuclear and WMD Response Center." The sources added that the new center will be formed within November, with an Air Force brigadier general at the helm. It will have three to four departments in operation. According to the sources, the JCS has determined that the North Korean threats of nuclear and missile attacks have reached a critical level, and it reported its plans for the organizational change to Defense Minister Han Min-koo during the military commanders' meeting last Thursday. This year alone, North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, while launching 21 ballistic missiles and three submarine-launched ballistic missiles. North Korea is also said to have made progress in producing a miniaturized nuclear warhead, and to be ready to deploy SLBMs on 2,000-ton submarines. The country is also reportedly building a 3,000-ton submarine that can carry at least three SLBMs. Against this backdrop, the new response center will be tasked with formulating operation plans and tactical response plans, according to the sources. Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

"The new organization will be made up of the finest experts in the field from the Army, the Navy and the Air Force," one military source said. "They will be working with civilian experts to respond efficiently and quickly to serious North Korean nuclear and missile threats." (Yonhap) http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20161127000026 Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russian Expert Says Trump Administration May Start Direct Dialogue with North Korea According to the expert, under the Obama administration the States pursued the policy that no dialogue with North Korea would be possible until it gave up its missile program November 28, 2016 MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. The Administration of US President-elect Donald Trump could try to launch a direct dialogue with the North Korean authorities, former Russian Ambassador to Japan, Alexander Panov, said on Monday. According to Panov, under Obama, the Americans pursued the policy that no dialogue with North Korea would be possible until it gave up its missile program. "The sanctions pressure was used, but it had little effect, and there were no positive developments. The situation only got worse, and there was no result whatsoever," Panov told the Primakov Readings international conference. "What will Trump do? In his speeches during the election campaign, Trump said that the North Korean leader deserves respect and he has nothing against eating a hamburger with him somewhere. One can assume that the Americans could launch a direct dialogue with the North Korean leadership, and this is something the North Koreans want. They do not need this group of six world powers at all," the expert said. He recalled that there had been a similar situation under US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton "when such a dialogue began to unfold." "The six-party talks (involving Russia, North Korea, South Korea, China, the US and Japan - TASS) and the P5+1 (bringing together five UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany - TASS) are not the framework that will yield results," the former ambassador said. "To achieve results, it is necessary to hold a more serious international conference under UN auspices to make sure that the ceasefire on the peninsula is replaced by peace." http://tass.com/world/915073 Return to Top

The Asahi Shimbun – Tokyo, Japan China Military Deeply Concerned by Japan-South Korea Pact Reuters December 1, 2016 BEIJING--China's Defence Ministry yesterday expressed serious concern about South Korea and Japan signing a military intelligence pact to share sensitive information on the threat posed by North Korea's missile and nuclear activities. The signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement had originally been expected in 2012, but South Korea postponed it because of domestic opposition. The case for the neighbours to pool intelligence has increased, however, as North Korea has been testing different types of missiles at a faster rate, and claims it has the capability to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile. Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said the move would add a new unsafe and unstable element to North-east Asia and smacked of a "cold war mentality".

"China's military expresses serious concern about this," Mr Yang told the monthly news briefing, adding to previous opposition to the deal from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. "We will make all necessary preparations, earnestly perform our duties and fulfil our mission, resolutely protect the country's security interests, and resolutely protect regional peace and stability," he said, without elaborating. Separately, the Defence Ministry said China wanted to develop smooth military-to-military ties with American President-elect Donald Trump's administration. While the world's two largest economies are frequently at odds over issues such as the disputed South China Sea, both have been trying to improve trust between their armed forces to reduce the risk of misunderstanding in any encounters. Last month, China and the United States staged a three-day humanitarian relief military drill as part of that trust-building exercise. New concern looms with Mr Trump's election as president. He lambasted China on the campaign trail, and has suggested Japan and South Korea be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. Asked about Mr Trump's election, Mr Yang said it went without saying there were tensions in the military relationship, and China hoped the US would respect its core interests and concerns. "China is willing to work hard together with the defence department of the next US government to promote the healthy and stable development of military-to-military relations," he added. http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201612010026.html Return to Top

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea S. Korea Braces for NK Provocation after Sanctions By Yoon Min-sik December 1, 2016 South Korean officials and observers said Thursday they are preparing for a possible armed protest by North Korea, after the UN Security Council approved a new set of economic sanctions as a punitive action against Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear test. The communist country has stepped up efforts to complete its nuclear and ballistic programs, carrying out two nuclear tests -- most recently in September -- and 20-plus ballistic missile tests this year. It typically has carried out some kind of provocation following UN-led sanctions. On March 3, a day after the UNSC passed Resolution 2270, it fired long-range multiple rocket launchers in what was believed to be a form of protest. “The government’s position is that the North can do it (a provocation) even tomorrow, and that we should be prepared for it,” an official from the Unification Ministry told local reporters. “Pyongyang will consider many things to set (the tone for) its relationship with the upcoming (US President- elect Donald) Trump Administration, one of which could be a provocation.” Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the North Korean military kicked off its annual winter training Thursday. A JCS official said the training is believed to be routine, without discussing further details. Local experts have said that the North may carry out some sort of military action to protest Resolution 2321, which aims mainly to curb the country’s coal exports to China and ban the trade of minerals. In addition to the sanctions, observers say upcoming North Korean anniversaries may prompt its leader Kim Jong-un to fire long-range rockets and missiles, and possibly conduct another nuclear test. Dec. 17 marks the fifth anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il, the former leader of North Korea and the incumbent leader’s father, which is followed by the anniversary of Kim Jong-un assuming supreme commandership of the military on Dec. 30. Jan. 8 will mark his 33rd birthday. “Dec. 17 is both the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death and the fifth anniversary of the Kim Jong-un leadership’s launch, and the North is expected to strengthen national unity with the rocket launch,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Korean think tank Sejong Institute. He pointed out that Pyongyang also conducted a long-range rocket launch just five days before the anniversary of the elder Kim’s death in 2012. In addition, Cheong expects that Pyongyang may officially celebrate Kim Jong-un’s birthday for the first time next January with a nuclear test. Last October, the hermit kingdom officially recognized Jan. 8 as its leader’s birthday. “The nuclear test would also send a message to the new Trump administration, that the Obama administration’s North Korean policy has failed. It will hope to start a new nuclear negotiation with the US,” he said. But some experts said the North may refrain from such actions and instead carry out small-scale armed protests. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said Kim would want stability within the country. He speculates it may fire long-range multiple rocket launchers, short-range Scud or medium-range Rodong missiles that would have minimal repercussions from the international society. Researcher Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Institute said that Kim would not want South Koreans to become unified in the face of North Korean threats. He also said that given Trump’s unpredictability, Kim may take a more careful approach. Hong echoed Yang in saying that Kim will carry out relatively smaller provocations such as a short- range missile launch, as a face-saving gesture for the hard-liners in North Korea. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20161201000750 Return to Top

Xinhua News – Beijing, China China Firmly Opposes DPRK's Nuclear Test, Calls for Early Resumption of Six-Party Talks Source: Xinhua December 1, 2016 UNITED NATIONS, Nov. 30 (Xinhua) -- China on Tuesday voiced its firm opposition to the Sept. 9 nuclear test by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), and called for an early resumption of the Six-Party Talks in order to solve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through political and peaceful means. Liu Jieyi, the Chinese permanent representative to the United Nations, made the remarks as he was taking the floor at the UN Security Council after the 15-nation UN body unanimously adopted a resolution to tighten its sanction against the DPRK in response to its nuclear test in September, the country's fifth one since 2006. "On Sept. 9 this year, the DPRK conducted yet another nuclear test in defiance of the new universal objection of the international community," Liu said. "The Chinese government firmly opposes such an act." In the new resolution, the Security Council decides that the DPRK shall not supply, sell or transfer coal, iron and iron ore from its territory or by its nationals. However, the resolution said that the provision shall not apply with respect to transactions in iron and iron ore that are determined to be exclusively for livelihood purposes and unrelated to generating revenue for the DPRK's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. "The resolution adopted by the Security Council today demonstrates the uniform stand of the international community against the development by the DPRK of its nuclear programs and for the maintenance of the international non-proliferation regime," he said. "The resolution reaffirms the need to safeguard the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, commits to seeking a solution to this issue by peaceful, diplomatic and political means, supports the resumption of the Six-Party Talks." The Six-Party Talks, involving China, the DPRK, the United States, the Republic of Korea, Russia and Japan, were a multilateral mechanism aimed at solving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. The talks began in 2003 and stalled in December 2008. The DPRK quit the talks in April 2009. The new resolution also emphasized the importance of easing the tension on the Korean Peninsula by all the parties concerned, Liu said. "As the resolution notes, the relevant measures are not intended to produce negative consequences on the DPRK's humanitarian situation and the livelihood of its people, nor to affect normal economic and trade activities." "China urges the parties concerned to effectively implement the relevant provisions of the council resolution in its entirety," he said. Since the beginning of 2016, the DPRK has conducted two nuclear tests and multiple ballistic missile tests, Liu noted, adding that on the other hand, certain parties have kept strengthening military deployment, increasing military presence and scaling up military exercises. "As a result, the confrontation on the peninsula has intensified, plunging into a vicious circle," he said. "This situation must be changed as soon as possible."

The Chosun Ilbo – Seoul, South Korea Lotte Faces Massive Tax Probe in China After THAAD Decision By Lee Kil-seong and Chae Sung-jin December 2, 2016 The Chinese government has embarked on an extensive tax audit and safety inspection of all of Lotte Group's businesses in China. The scale is unprecedented and has prompted suspicions that the move comes in retaliation against Lotte's decision to hand over a site in Korea for the U.S.' Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery, which Beijing fears could be used to spy on its military movements.

The Korean Embassy in Beijing said on Thursday that Chinese tax and fire safety authorities launched surprise inspections of Lotte's confectionery, chemical plants, department stores and superstores in the country earlier this week. The probe covers Lotte's Shanghai headquarters, as well as 150 offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang and Chengdu. Unlike previous audits that were conducted by district officials, the latest inspection is being handled by metropolitan tax authorities. A Lotte staffer said, "We have so many business operations in China and the tax audits are taking place simultaneously, so we're having a tough time figuring out what is going on." Chinese tax authorities are demanding documents and records from Lotte Confectionery's Beijing and Qingdao factories. Lotte Chemical said five of its manufacturing operations near Shanghai were audited. Lotte Mart and other retail operations were subject to surprise visits by Chinese fire safety inspectors. A Lotte Mart staffer said, "None of our stores have been slapped with closure orders so far, but we are bracing ourselves." A diplomatic source in Beijing said, "This is not the first surprise inspection by Chinese authorities, but a probe of this magnitude targeting one company is unprecedented." A Lotte staffer in Seoul said, "We're trying to determine the reason behind the inspections." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang would neither confirm nor deny a connection with the THAAD spat. "I have no information about the operation of the Lotte Group in China. I suggest you contact the competent authorities for details if interested," he said. He added China's position on the THAAD issue "is clear. We strongly oppose the deployment of THAAD by the U.S." in Korea. http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/12/02/2016120201344.html Return to Top

Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea N.K. Nukes Aimed for Reunification on its Own Terms: Expert December 2, 2016 SEOUL, Dec. 2 (Yonhap) -- A researcher argued Friday that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons not to use in war, but as a means to press for a peaceful reunification with the South on its own terms. "In its nuclear strategy, North Korea aims to achieve unification with South Korea by keeping the U.S. from getting involved and without going to war against the South," Lee Choon-kun of the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy said in a forum in Seoul. Pyongyang is developing nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland to prevent any intervention by the U.S. on Korean issues, he argued.

Straits Times – Singapore North Korea Rejects UN Resolution, Vows Stronger Self-Defence Measures Agence France-Presse (AFP) December 2, 2016 SEOUL (AFP) – North Korea on Thursday (Dec 1) condemned tough new sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council over its nuclear and missile programme as a violation of its sovereignty which would escalate tensions. A foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement that North Korea “strongly censures and categorically rejects it as another excess of authority and violation of the DPRK’s sovereignty by the UNSC acting under instructions of the US,” the official KCNA news agency reported. The statement said September’s nuclear test, its fifth and biggest, was taken to “tackle the nuclear threat and sanctions by the US”. Noting that the Security Council had not prevented its permanent members from conducting nuclear tests and rocket launches, it said sanctions would not force North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme. It added that sanctions would trigger “tougher countermeasures for self-defence” and would “inevitably escalate tensions”, KCNA reported. The Security Council on Wednesday unanimously imposed its toughest ever sanctions on North Korea, placing a cap on its key coal exports after the state’s defiant nuclear tests. The new sanctions resolution, which was spearheaded by the United States and came after three months of tough negotiations with fellow veto-wielding council member China, passed by a 15-0 vote.

The resolution demands that North Korea “abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programmes” and takes aim at the state’s exports of coal – its top external revenue source. http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/north-korea-rejects-un-resolution-vows-stronger- self-defence-measures Return to Top

RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia Russian Senator Promises Nuclear Response to NATO Expansion 25 November 2016 In response to NATO’s efforts to enlist new member-countries, a member of the defense and security committee for Russia’s Upper House has said that Russia will target any sites it considers to be a threat with nuclear weapons. “In reply to NATO’s aggressive actions, to the alliance’s attempts to draw more and more nations into their orbit, there will be a harsh and unambiguous response from Russia’s side. We will aim our weapons, including the nuclear ones, at any of the alliance’s site that would threaten us, wherever these sites are placed,” RIA Novosti quoted Senator Franz Klintsevich as saying. The senator also explained that by nuclear weapons he meant both stationary land-based systems, and mobile weapons, including sea- and air-based systems. Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Friday that Klintsevich’s position was understandable, but also warned against jumping to hasty conclusions. “Russian lawmakers have the right for own opinion, they are vividly reacting to international events, to NATO’s expansion towards Russian borders, and to the expansion of NATO’s military infrastructure. This makes their position understandable,” Peskov said. At the same time, he noted that, according to the Russian Constitution, lawmakers cannot determine the country’s foreign policy, as that is solely the president’s prerogative. In late October of this year, Senator Klintsevich told Norwegian television TV2 that Russia was concerned about US plans to deploy marines at a Norwegian base which he sees as part of its Prompt Global Strike doctrine. The implementation of this plan would force Russia to target sites in Norway with strategic weapons, which it has never had to do before. https://www.rt.com/politics/368146-russian-senator-promises-nuclear-response/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia to Develop Super-Heavy Class Rocket for Building Station on Moon Earlier, deputy PM said that Russia at the moment had no space vehicles that might require a super- heavy rocket, but the corresponding tasks might emerge once it has been developed November 28, 2016 MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Russia is about to launch a project for building a new super-heavy space rocket that will make it possible to create a research station on the Moon someday, Deputy Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin while addressing an audience at the space rocket corporation Energiya. "On instructions from the president, which is being finalized technically, we are launching a super- heavy space rocket project, with quite different payload capabilities. It will pave the way for implementing the idea of a research station on the Moon, visitable and inhabitable," he said. The project for creating a super-heavy class rocket was approved in the autumn of 2014, but in the spring of 2015 the head of the space rocket corporation Roscosmos Igor Komarov said the work on a new rocket had to be postponed. The project was absent from the federal space program for 2016-2025 adopted last spring. At the same time there are plans for creating a Feniks rocket, which is seen as the first stage of a future super-heavy rocket. Earlier, Rogozin said that Russia at the moment had no space vehicles that might require a super- heavy rocket, but the corresponding tasks may emerge once it has been developed. http://tass.com/science/915040 Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran No New Talks between Iran, US on JCPOA: Spokesman November 26, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi dismissed as a downright lie media reports that Tehran and Washington recently held talks to fortify the July 2015 nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and six world powers. “No new talks have been held between Iran and other parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to change the provisions of the JCPOA and (any report on such talks) is a downright lie,” Qassemi said on Friday. He made the remarks in response to a recent report published by The Wall Street Journal which claimed Iranian officials have engaged in serious discussions about a new plan to sharply cut the amount of radioactive material Iran holds in a bid to shore up the JCPOA and discourage the incoming President-elect Donald Trump from abandoning it. Tehran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) reached the JCPOA in July 2015 and started implementing it in January 2016. Under the deal, Iran agreed to put limitations on its nuclear program in exchange for the removal of nuclear-related sanctions imposed against the country. The JCPOA requires Iran’s storage of uranium enriched to up to 3.67 percent purity to stay below 300 kilograms. Tehran has also agreed to keep its heavy water stockpile below 130 metric tons. https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/11/26/1250541/no-new-talks-between-iran-us- on-jcpoa-spokesman Return to Top

The Jerusalem Post – Jerusalem, Israel Report: Nuclear Material Said Stolen from Iran Could Yield 'Dirty Bomb' By JPOST.COM STAFF Sunday, 27 November 2016 Radioactive material produced at Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Plant has reportedly been stolen raising concerns about the use of a so-called dirty bomb in the future, according to London-based, Arabic language newspaper Asharq al-Awsat. The identity of the alleged thieves remains unknown. The missing material, Iridium-192, was reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency by Iran’s nuclear regulatory body earlier this month, warning neighboring Gulf states of its possible nefarious use. A dirty bomb, or radiological dispersion device, is a conventional weapon equipped with nuclear material. The idea behind a dirty bomb is to blast radioactive material, such as powder or pellets, into the area around the explosion. Citing Saudi intelligence sources, Asharq al-Awsat reported Friday that the Iridium- 192 was stolen as it was being transported from the Bushehr facility. The vehicle carrying the nuclear material was later found abandoned with its contents seized. It remains unclear who stole the nuclear material and for what purpose. The IAEA defines Iridium-192, a highly unstable isotope which emits both electrons and gamma- rays, as a category-2 radioactive substance. Substances with a category-2 classification can permanently injure or even kill a human being if exposed to the material within hours or days. Iridium-192 is generally used for industrial reasons, utilized to locate flaws in metal components, despite the danger it poses to humans. In July 2015, Iran and six world powers (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany) reached a nuclear deal over the country’s nuclear program. The deal, which went into effect in January, requires Iran to scrap the bulk of its nuclear activities in return for the ease of international sanctions on the country’s energy and financial sectors. It allows regular inspections of the facilities inside Iran. Earlier this month, the UN nuclear watchdog said Iran must stop repeatedly overstepping a limit on its stock of a sensitive material set by the landmark deal. The IAEA, which is policing the deal, said in a report in early November that Iran had slightly exceeded the 130-metric ton soft limit on its stock of heavy water for a second time since the deal was put in place in January. Reuters contributed to this report. http://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Iran-says-nuclear-material-stolen-could-yield-dirty- bomb-473776#article=6017MjM3ODA0RDEzMTE1NkQxMDc1RkQ5RDRBQUQyMDFBNjc= Return to Top

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Trend News Agency – Baku, Azerbaijan Iranian Leader Criticizes US Sanctions Renewal 27 November 2016 Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the renewal of sanctions against the Islamic Republic by the US is tantamount to the violation of commitments under the landmark nuclear deal between Iran and the group of six countries known as the P5+1, Press TV reported. "During the [nuclear] negotiations there was a lot of debate about the sanctions, but now they raise the issue of extending the sanctions in the US Congress and claim that these are not [new] sanctions but renewal [of old ones]," the Leader said in a meeting with a group of Iranian Navy commanders and officials in Tehran on Sunday on the occasion of National Navy Day. "'Initiating sanctions' is no different from 'renewing them after their expiration,' and the latter is also [an instance of imposing] sanctions and violation of the previous commitments by the opposite side," Ayatollah Khamenei said. The GOP-controlled US House of Representatives on November 15 passed a bill for a 10-year extension of the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA). The ISA will expire at the end of 2016 if it is not renewed. The bill must be approved by the Senate before being signed by the US president into law. Addressing members of the volunteer Basij forces in Tehran on Wednesday, Ayatollah Khamenei had warned that Iran would respond if the US proceeded to renew the ISA. “If these sanctions are extended, it will surely constitute a violation of the JCPOA (the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and they (US officials) must know that the Islamic Republic will definitely react to it,” the Leader had said. Elsewhere in his Sunday remarks, Ayatollah Khamenei praised the Iranian naval forces for their progress and achievements in various areas and stressed the importance of continuing with plans and projects until they come to fruition while recommending his audience to exercise perseverance and avoide hastiness in carrying out various tasks. The Leader emphasized that sturdy resolve and relentlessness in the face of limitations are necessary to overcome shortcomings. Ayatollah Khamenei stated that the powerful presence of Iran’s Navy in the high seas will boost the country’s might and defense capabilities and added that such presence must be increased. Prior to the Leader’s remarks, the Iranian Navy chief presented a report about the naval forces’ activities and measures. Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said the Navy has safeguarded national interests through its “powerful and continuous” presence in the high seas and while establishing its presence far beyond regional waters has put on display the naval forces’ prowess. In recent years, Iran’s Navy has increased its presence in international waters to protect naval routes and provide security for merchant vessels and tankers. In line with international efforts against piracy, the Iranian Navy has been conducting patrols in the Gulf of Aden since November 2008, safeguarding merchant containers and oil tankers owned or leased by Iran or other countries.

Iran’s Navy has managed to foil several attacks on both Iranian and foreign tankers during its missions in international waters. http://en.trend.az/iran/nuclearp/2690537.html Return to Top

Sputnik News – Russian Information Agency Tehran 'Might Change Legislation' to Give Russia Permanent Military Base in Iran 27 November 2016 Commenting on Iran's announcement that it could allow Russia to use the Hamadan air base in western Iran for Moscow's aerial operation against terrorists in Syria, Russian political and military analyst Alexander Perendzhiev said that Tehran might even change its legislation to give Russia a more permanent presence at the base. On Saturday, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan announced that the country's authorities could allow Russia to use its Nojeh airbase near the western city of Hamadan for Moscow's aerial operation against terrorists in Syria if the situation in the crisis-torn Middle Eastern nation demanded it. "If the situation and conditions [in Syria] demand to provide the support, we will do this job," Dehghan said, as quoted by the Tasnim news agency. Later in the day, the Russian upper house of parliament's defense committee chair, Viktor Ozerov told RIA Novosti that Russia could use Iran's airbase if the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, which is used for anti-terror strikes in Syria, moves away from the Syrian borders for a new mission. "Russia might need to use the airbase in Hamadan if the Admiral Kuznetsov carries out another operation and is not be able for carrying out airstrikes against terrorists in Syria," he said. Commenting on Iran's announcement, Russian political and military analyst, associate professor at the faculty of Social and Political Sciences of the Russian Higher School of Economics Alexander Perendzhiev told RIA Novosti that Russia can now use the base on the hotel principle: sleep over and move out. However its longer-term prospect is to rent it for several years. "Iran is ready to provide its military base to Russia as a guest facility, not on a fixed basis. It is like in a hotel: move in, sleep over, move out," he explained. The analyst however suggested that Tehran is ready to meet Russia's operative and projected needs to use this stopover base to better carry the joint fight against international terrorists in Syria. "The statement says that the Iranian military and political leadership is ready to change the country's legislation (which currently forbids the deployment of foreign military bases and military contingents on its territory) so that Russia could use the facility on a rental basis," he said. "I think, for five years to start with," he suggested. Iran allowed the Russian strike force to operate from the base in the Hamadan province in mid- August. The jets returned to Russia a week later, after completing their anti-terror mission, which targeted jihadists in Syria.

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iran Braced for US Breach of JCPOA: Nuclear Chief November 28, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) - Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi said Tehran has drawn up plans to react to any possible violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by the US, saying those scenarios could not be made public. Iran has made the necessary preparations for reversibility of commitments under the nuclear deal with the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) if the other side violates the agreement, Salehi told reporters on Monday. As regards a recent controversial decision by the US House of Representatives to pass a bill renewing sanctions on Iran for 10 years, Salehi said the bill still needs to be endorsed by the Senate and the US president, but emphasized that its implementation will “definitely” amount to a breach of the JCPOA. Iran had figured out from the very beginning of the nuclear talks what to do if the JCPOA is scrapped one day, because the other side is not trustworthy, he explained. Though Iran is not willing to see any “damage to the JCPOA”, it would provoke a reaction, the AEOI chief underlined, adding that the country can regain a significant capacity to enrich uranium within a span of a year and half. His comments came after Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said Washington’s plans to renew sanctions against Iran would be a breach of the JCPOA, dismissing the notion that it will not be new sanctions but renewal of previous sanctions. “There is no difference between starting a sanction and restarting it after it expires and the second one also constitutes a violation of previous commitments by the other party (to the JCPOA),” the Leader said on Sunday. https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/11/28/1252889/iran-braced-for-us-breach-of- jcpoa-nuclear-chief Return to Top

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 28 November 2016 Reports on Missing Iranian Nuclear Device Baseless: Informed Source Tehran, Nov 28, IRNA – The alleged reports by Saudi media about missing of a nuclear device at the Iranian nuclear reactor in Bushehr is baseless and politically motivated, an informed source said. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the source told IRNA that Iran has reported missing of an iridium-192 camera to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a while ago. The camera was used for radiography in the city of Ahvaz, capital of southwestern province of Khuzestan, the soure added. The Saudi newspaper, Asharq Al-Awsat, has recently released alleged reports on the potential negative effects of a missing nuclear device at the Iranian nuclear reactor in Bushehr. Bushehr is the southern neighboring province of Khuzestan where the camera has gone missing. Those fabricated and politically motivated reports are so unimportant from scientific and media viewpoints that they do not deserve an answer, the source said. Iran attaches importance to environmental issues and tests the Persian Gulf water annually to protect the environment against the potential radioactive elements, he added. The informed source reiterated that all international bodies, including the IAEA, have confirmed that Iran has always been bound to nuclear safety standards. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82325644/ Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iran’s Navy Geared to Cross Atlantic Ocean: Commander November 29, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari unveiled plans for the country’s naval forces to sail across the Atlantic Ocean. Speaking to reporters in Tehran on Tuesday, the commander said crossing the Atlantic Ocean is on the agenda of the Navy. His comments came a week after an Iranian naval flotilla sailed for the first time into the Atlantic waters as part of a military mission. The Iranian Navy’s 44th flotilla of warships entered the Atlantic Ocean on November 22 after making a port call at South Africa’s Port of Durban. Elsewhere in his remarks, Rear Admiral Sayyari said a large-scale naval war game, codenamed Velayat-95- will be staged as scheduled in the Iranian month of Bahman, which starts on January 20, 2017. The commander was speaking on the sidelines of an exhibition, held to unveil a number of new systems and projects for manufacturing military equipment including naval radars, simulators, and torpedoes. Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Iranian military experts and technicians have in recent years made great headways in manufacturing a broad range of indigenous equipment, making the armed forces self-sufficient in the arms sphere. Tehran has repeatedly stated that its military might is defensive in nature and poses no threat to other countries. https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/11/29/1253488/iran-s-navy-geared-to-cross- atlantic-ocean-commander Return to Top

Tehran Times – Tehran, Iran Iran Threatens to Up Enrichment amid Concerns over Sanctions Extension November 30, 2016 TEHRAN – Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the Iranian parliamentary committee for national security and foreign policy, has said Iran will raise uranium enrichment capacity up to 190,000 SWU in the event Washington extends sanctions against Tehran. “If America extends sanctions and violates BARJAM (JCPOA), we increase production and enrichment of uranium up to 190,000 SWU,” Boroujerdi said on Tuesday. Separative work unit, or SWU, is the standard measure of the effort required to separate isotopes of uranium during an enrichment process in nuclear facilities. The U.S. Senate will vote next week on a measure which would extend the Iran Sanctions Act for 10 years. Last month the House of Representatives unanimously voted for the extension bill, in place since 1996. For the bill, due to expire at the end of 2016, to take force, President Obama has to sign it into law. Iran has voiced alarm the sanctions push will breach the terms of an international deal finalized between Iran and world powers, including the U.S. last year. Under the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran accepted to scale down its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. “We at the Islamic Consultative Assembly (the parliament) believe that the extension of sanctions is the violation of BARJAM,” the senor MP stressed. Earlier, Leader of the Islamic Revolution, who has the final say on the nuclear deal, had said the ISA, if passed, “would certainly be in breach of the JCPOA,” threatening to react. However, U.S. Congress members will see the ISA as a fast-track mechanism for any U.S. president to reinstate sanctions against Tehran. Boroujerdi’s alarming words come after Iran’s nuclear chief said on Monday plans had been made on how to react if Washington would fail to make good on commitments to the JCPOA though he did not give details. http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/408683/Iran-threatens-to-up-enrichment-amid-concerns- over-sanctions Return to Top Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Extension of Anti-Iran Sanctions ‘Clear Breach’ of JCPOA: Nuclear Chief December 02, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) denounced a recent move by the US Senate to vote for a bill to extend sanctions against Iran for another ten years as a “clear violation” of the JCPOA, the July 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. “This act (the Iran Sanctions Act) does exist currently but the US president has suspended it… but if the law comes into force again, it would be a clear breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” Ali Akbar Salehi told the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) on Friday. He further pointed to a possible appropriate reaction to the US legislation by Iran and said the Islamic Republic has taken necessary precautions and is braced for the US moves. Salehi added that possible reactions to the US violations of the JCPOA are not going to be made public for the time being. The US Senate voted unanimously on Thursday to extend the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) for another decade. The measure passed the Senate by 99-0. It passed the House of Representatives nearly unanimously in November, and congressional aides said they expected President Barack Obama would sign it. The ISA will expire on Dec. 31 if not renewed. The White House had not pushed for an extension, but had not raised serious objections. Meanwhile, a senior lawmaker on Friday said Iran’s parliament is weighing a series of measures in response to the US Congress. Bahrouz Nemati, spokesman for parliament’s presiding board, said some 220 lawmakers have prepared a resolution which condemns US extension of the sanctions. A two-starred motion on prohibiting US-made products is also moving through the chamber for approval, Nemati added. The parliament is expected to take other counter-measures against the ISA extension which he did not specify. While the JCPOA, the nuclear agreement between Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) came into force in January, some Iranian officials complain about the US failure to fully implement the accord. Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said last month that if the sanctions were extended, Iran would definitely respond to it. https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/12/02/1255741/extension-of-anti-iran-sanctions- clear-breach-of-jcpoa-nuclear-chief Return to Top

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Hindustan Times – New Delhi, India General Qamar Javed Bajwa Named New Pakistan Army Chief By Imtiaz Ahmad and Rezaul H Laskar, Hindustan Times November 26, 2016 Lt Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, seen as a dark horse in the race for the post of Pakistan Army chief and considered to have extensive experience of affairs in Kashmir, emerged on Saturday as the successor to Gen Raheel Sharif. Bajwa, a career infantry officer from the Baloch Regiment, will take over when Gen Sharif retires on November 29. Besides Bajwa, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chose Lt Gen Zubair Hayat as the next chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee. “On the advice of Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, President Mamnoon Hussain has approved the promotion of Lieutenant General Zubair Mehmood Hayat and Lieutenant General Qamar Javed Bajwa,” the prime minister’s office said. Much of the speculation about the next army chief in recent weeks had centred around Hayat and Lt Gen Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed, and Bajwa – who once served alongside former Indian Army chief Gen Bikram Singh in a UN peacekeeping mission in Congo - wasn’t seen as a frontrunner. Prime Minister Sharif finalised the names of the two generals on Saturday and an official notification was expected shortly. Sources in Islamabad said the debate in recent weeks within the Pakistan Army’s hierarchy was whether the next chief should be a general who was well versed with counter-insurgency operations or someone who could strike a balance between the drive against militant groups and countering India following the spike in tensions on the Line of Control. With some sections of the military leadership believing that Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the counter- insurgency drive initiated by Gen Sharif, was winding down, Bajwa was perceived as the right fit given his expertise in Kashmir and along the LoC, the sources told Hindustan Times. Despite its recent focus on counter-insurgency operations, the Pakistan Army remains – as former army chief Ashfaq Kayani once put it – an “India-centric” force that exercises immense influence on foreign and security policies. For the political establishment led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Bajwa was seen as a better candidate as he is believed to be one of the generals who counseled against any adventurism by the army during the 2014 dharna by opposition leaders Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri. That protest had considerably weakened the PML-N government. At that time, Bajwa headed the Rawalpindi-based X Corps, the Pakistan Army’s largest formation that is responsible for operations along the LoC. The 111 infantry brigade, infamous for its role in several coups, is part of the X Corps. Within military circles, Bajwa is also perceived as “less of a hawk” than some of his contemporaries and sources said he is believed to consider extremism is a major threat for Pakistan. As Bajwa’s name did the rounds in recent days, there was a whisper campaign that suggested he was not fit for the post as his family reportedly had links with the Ahmedi minority, which has been declared “non-Muslim”. These reports were dismissed by the establishment and PML-N Senator Sajid Mir, who made the claim on social media, recanted.

“The selection has been entirely on merit and the choice has been made in the best way possible,” said defence analyst Lt Gen (retired) Talat Masood. He said the four contenders were running neck and neck as they were all equally competent and qualified. “They all brought different skills and experience with them. What we have seen is that the most competent person has been selected.” Brig (retired) Mahmood Shah said the choice for Prime Minister Sharif must have been a very difficult one. “At the end of the day I think merit has been kept in mind,” he added. Bajwa is currently serving in the General Headquarters as inspector general for training and evaluation, the same position held by Gen Sharif when he became chief in 2013. Besides serving as commander of X Corps, Bajwa also added to his expertise on Kashmir affairs by leading the Force Command Northern Areas as a major general. Lt Gen Hayat is serving as chief of general staff (CGS) and was the senior-most of the four contenders for the army chief’s post. He also served as director general of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), which oversees the country’s nuclear weapons. His expertise in the SPD made him a good fit for the post of chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, which exercises jurisdiction over the strategic nuclear forces. http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/general-qamar-bajwa-named-new-pakistan-army- chief-pak-media/story-39Gl0qsEubuKgBISxPFO6J.html Return to Top

Sputnik News – Russian Information Agency Indian Navy Increases Vigil as China Deploys Nuclear Submarine in Pak Waters China’s naval wooing of India’s neighbors has compelled the Indian Navy to step up vigilance of its maritime domain. As of now the Indian Navy is sanguine about monitoring Chinese naval activity on both its oceanic flanks. 2 December 2016 New Delhi (Sputnik) — The Indian Navy has geared up for heightened Chinese activity in the oceans around its territorial waters. "We have the capability and assets to take on any force which is deployed, and if and when this happens, we have plans in place to tackle it. PLA nuclear submarine was deployed and did a port call at Karachi. As far as deployment of PLA navy, ships and submarines are concerned, we keep a close eye and monitor their movement," says Indian Navy Chief Admiral Sunil Lanba. This is for the first time a senior Indian defense official has mentioned activity by a Chinese submarine near its western coast. Indian Navy’s revelation about Chinese submarine deployment in Pakistani territory comes in the backdrop of recent announcement by Bangladesh Navy that would take delivery of two old refurbished Chinese Type 035G Ming-class diesel-electric submarines by March 2017. It will further increase Chinese naval activity in the Bay of Bengal. "The long-term submarine training and maintenance needs of Bangladesh Navy would enable China’s military presence in the Bay of Bengal, and enable it to collate sensitive data for PLA Navy’s submarine

The Hindu – Chennai, India OPINION/Commentary When Ministers Think Aloud A ‘no first use’ nuclear weapons policy suits India’s interest. Shifting to a first-use policy would mark a shift from deterrence towards nuclear war fighting By Rakesh Sood November 26, 2016 Since the dawn of the nuclear age in 1945 there has been an ongoing debate centred on defining an appropriate role for nuclear weapons. Everybody agrees that these weapons are enormously destructive and should not be used. The question is whether the best way to prevent their use is to consider these as weapons for war fighting (just like conventional weapons but only more destructive), or to see them as qualitatively different, meant exclusively for deterrence. Different countries possessing nuclear weapons have evolved their doctrines based on the historical experiences shaping their world views, their threat perceptions and security obligations. Indian conceptualisation of weapons India is no exception and on January 4, 2003, it issued a statement regarding the decisions taken by the Cabinet Committee on Security on operationalising India’s Nuclear Doctrine. This statement summarised the key principles: “a) building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent; b) posture of ‘No First Use’, nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere; c) nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage; d) non-use of nuclear weapons against non- nuclear weapon states; however, in the event of a major attack against India, or Indian forces anywhere, by biological or chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons....” The two key elements — a “credible minimum deterrent” and “no first use” — were first articulated by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Parliament on May 27, 1998, days after India had undertaken a series of five nuclear tests in Pokhran and declared itself a nuclear weapon state. Mr. Vajpayee stated that India did not see nuclear weapons as weapons of war; that their role was to ensure that India is not subjected to nuclear threats or coercion; that India will not engage in an arms race; and that India believes in a “no first use” policy and remains ready to discuss this with other countries, bilaterally or in a collective forum. These elements were further developed in the draft report of the National Security Advisory Board released by then National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra on August 17, 1999. The 2003 statement, with some minor (but significant) changes, was consistent with what India had maintained since 1998. These were reiterated in Parliament on September 5, 2008 by the then Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, and were critical to the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s decision to grant an exceptional waiver to India. The BJP manifesto in 2014 had declared that it would “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine and revise and update it, to make it relevant to the challenges of current times, (and) maintain a credible minimum deterrent that is in tune with changing geostrategic realities”. This generated speculation that India was preparing to change its “no first use” policy but it was put to rest in August 2014 when in a series of interviews, Prime Minister Narendra Modi categorically stated that there was no change in policy and “no first use” remained India’s nuclear doctrine. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s unexpected response to a journalist at a book launch function in Delhi on November 10, 2016, reopened the issue when he said about India’s no-first-use policy: “Why should I bind myself [to it]? I should say I am a responsible nuclear power and I will not use it (a nuclear weapon) irresponsibly.” He added that these were his individual views, but since he is a member of the Cabinet Committee on Security as also a member of the Political Council of the Nuclear Command Authority, the Ministry of Defence felt it necessary to follow up with a statement that this “was his personal opinion”, and not official position: “What he said was that India, being a responsible power, should not get into a first use debate”. Debating the ‘No First Use’ A nuclear doctrine serves multiple uses — it determines the nuclear posture, provides guidance for deployment and targeting, chain of command and control, communication and signalling to adversary and, in the ultimate, the use of nuclear weapons. Naturally, the last would happen once deterrence has failed. So far, the nuclear triad (aircraft, land-based mobile missiles and sea-based assets) which is to guarantee India’s assured retaliation remains a work in progress. Mobility for the land-based missiles is being ensured through canisterisation but the sea leg of the triad will take time before India is able to field adequate numbers of nuclear submarines with long-range nuclear-tipped missiles (SSBNs and SSNs). Some delays are inevitable as we seek to master the complex technologies involved. India’s doctrine does not mention any country, but it is no secret that the Indian nuclear arsenal is to counter threats from China and Pakistan. China has maintained a ‘no first use’ policy since 1964 when it went nuclear, and the Chinese leadership has always considered nuclear weapons as political weapons. Pakistan has adopted a first-use policy to ensure full-spectrum deterrence; in other words, it envisages a tactical, operational and strategic role for its nuclear weapons. Since it maintains that its nuclear arsenal is exclusively against India, it seeks to counter India’s conventional superiority at all levels. Recently, it has developed tactical nuclear weapons to hedge against a conventional military strike under the Cold Start doctrine. The conventional criticism against a ‘no first use’ policy is that India would have to suffer a first strike before it retaliated. This criticism is valid but only highlights the need for India to ensure that deterrence does not fail, and that there is a clear communication to the adversary of the certainty of punitive nuclear retaliation. This can happen when India’s nuclear arsenal, its delivery systems and its command and control enjoy assured survivability. Does this imply that till then, it is preferable for India to shift to a first-use policy? That might be an attractive option if India was certain that in a first strike, it could take out all of Pakistan’s (or China’s) nuclear assets so that it would escape any nuclear retaliation. That is highly unlikely, today

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama and in the future. Even the U.S. with its vast arsenal, both conventional and nuclear, is unsure about denuclearising North Korea which has a much smaller arsenal and capability. Implications of a policy change Shifting to a first-use policy also has implications for the size of the arsenal, deployment posture, alert levels, delegation of command and control, defining redlines which would trigger a nuclear response and escalation management along the nuclear ladder. In short, it would mark a shift from deterrence towards nuclear war fighting. Further, declaring a first-use policy would create an incentive for either side for pre-emption because of the ‘use it or lose it’ syndrome brought on by hair trigger alerts. In short, it would lead to greater instability. The same instability would govern a situation of nuclear ambiguity. Given the short distances, it is impractical for India to envisage a ‘launch on warning’ posture even it developed and deployed a highly effective early warning system. A shift towards nuclear war fighting also blurs the dividing line between conventional and nuclear. Today, the biggest conventional bomb in the U.S. arsenal is the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) with an explosive yield of 15 tonnes equivalent of TNT. This is one-thousandth of the 16kt bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, and today’s nuclear devices are hundreds of times larger. Tactical nuclear weapons can be smaller but will remain much larger than the MOP, with the addition of long-lasting radiation fallout. Weapons designers are working on ‘dial-a-yield’ systems and pure fusion devices without radiation fallout, but till that time, blurring the nuclear and conventional dividing line is inadvisable. The difference with Pakistan There is another key difference. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is totally under the military’s control, and by and large, the military approach to any weapon system is to find a use for it; it is difficult for the military to possess a weapon system and then conceive of a doctrine that aims at deterring its use. Deterrence is a product of ‘technical capability’ and ‘political will’. In dealing with Pakistan, India has to define who is to be deterred and find ways of demonstrating the requisite political will even as we build up our technical capabilities. Israel is a classic example of a state possessing advanced technical capabilities and also having demonstrated political will. Yet, this has failed to deter rocket strikes and terror attacks on Israeli territory. This is not to suggest that India’s nuclear doctrine cannot be changed. It should be periodically reviewed and updated, possibly every decade or so, taking into account technological developments and changes in the security environment. This is, however, not a simple issue of changing a few words here or there and casual remarks can only add to confusion. Ultimately, deterrence is a mental construct which requires clarity in its planning. Even ambiguity needs to be a calculated ambiguity. Only then will the doctrine serve to reassure the Indian people even as it deters the adversary in order to safeguard India’s security. Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat and served as the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation till May 2014; he is presently Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/When-ministers-think-aloud/article16701989.ece Return to Top

Second Line of Defense (SLD) – Paris, France OPINION/Article Deciphering PRC’s Stance on THAAD in South Korea: A Chinese First Strike Policy in Asia? By Danny Lam November 27, 2016 During President Obama’s meeting with President Elect Donald Trump, a “big problem for the country” was discussed. North Korea and its nuclear ballistic missile program was identified in September as the first problem for the Trump Administration. President Elect Trump will be briefed by the priesthood of China / North Asia experts on the issue, and will hear their pitch for the continuation of multilateral diplomacy based approaches to solving the problem — the approach that repeatedly failed for decades and got us to where we are. Except that today, or by 2020, the NORK problem have turned from a nuclear ballistic missile threat to allies like Japan and South Korea, and perhaps US bases like Guam, to a problem that directly threaten every major U.S. population center including those of happy go lucky free riding allies like Canada. U.S. Co-operation with the Beijing regime, administered by the “China Expert” priesthood, produced a direct threat to the United States by one of the most irresponsible, unpredictable, irresponsible, and dangerous powers in the world. Yet, the priesthood maintain that their approach is the only way even as PRC’s intransience appeared to have risen to a new level with arguments that THAAD based in South Korea threaten the allegedly small nuclear force controlled by Beijing, and Beijing’s insistence on no deployment as a precondition for increasing sanctions on North Korea. The Beijing Regime alleged that THAAD 10 extra minutes of warning of missile launches from China. PRC diplomats claim THAAD threatens the “terminal” and “mid-course” phases of their intermediate range and ICBMs. One perspective is to take Beijing’s statements as technical errors by diplomats poorly trained in the technical details of arms control. From this, it follows that Beijing’s allegations and opposition to THAAD are technically unsound based on any plausible assessment of THAAD capabilities and the flight path of PRC’s nuclear ballistic missiles. Chinese nuclear forces are now split between land based silos, road and rail mobile launchers, and SSBNs at very different locations. The actual numbers of launchers deployed have sharply risen. However, if it is the case that the PRC regime in fact have substantially more nuclear weapons deployed than they claimed, particularly on intermediate and short range missiles aimed at Japan, S. Korea, and US bases, it will lead to a very different conclusion.

Global Times – Beijing, China OPINION/Editorial China Must Work to Render THAAD Void Source: Global Times November 28, 2016 According to reports, Japan's defense ministry is planning to set up a team headed by Deputy Defense Minister Kenji Wakamiya to discuss adopting the US-developed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system. Given North Korea's frequent ballistic missile tests this year, Japan plans to hammer out a blueprint for the deployment before summer next year. Deploying THAAD will enable Japan to not only guard against missiles from North Korea, but enhance its strategic deterrence against China. South Korea and Japan, both set to deploy the Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

THAAD system, can spy on the northeastern and southeastern regions of China respectively. After they just inked an intelligence-sharing agreement last week, they can form a fully-fledged missile defense system in Northeast Asia with the THAAD adoption, which will weaken China's missile deterrence and add to the US' leverage against China. China has failed to stop South Korea from adopting the THAAD system, and is no more likely to force Japan out of it. With a closer alliance with the US than South Korea and a tougher stance over China, Tokyo brings up the deployment at this moment in an attempt to affect US President-elect Donald Trump's policy on the Asia-Pacific. This leaves little for China to do to turn it around. The US is intensifying its missile defense system in the West Pacific. China cannot expect Trump to retreat from it. Instead China should focus more on what it can do, not what it can talk the US out of doing. In the current circumstances, China needs to improve its missile defense system and to significantly enhance the penetration capability of its missiles to an extent that outpaces THAAD deployment. The latter is crucial. Seoul and Tokyo's THAAD deployment plans have given China a chance to upgrade the penetration capability of its missiles and expand its nuclear arsenal to approximately the size of that of the US and Russia. As the second-largest economy, China has been deemed by the US as its top strategic rival and been dragged into a major power competition. China remaining a second-rate nuclear power will prompt US radicals to get tough on it. The US' overwhelming nuclear margin on China is not conducive to bilateral relations. China is fully able to develop its missile penetration capability with a smaller investment so as to render the THAAD system obsolete before its deployment is finished. With mature technology in ballistic missile nuclear submarines, it should launch more submarines to circumvent the THAAD system. China cherishes peace, but the US, Japan and South Korea are keen to take actions that threaten China's strategic security. In response, China needs to be flexible diplomatically and meanwhile build reliable military might. Since we can hardly stop the THAAD deployment, we can render the deployment void so that next time these countries will understand that they need to consider before taking any action. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1020755.shtml Return to Top

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – Chicago, IL OPINION/ Roundtable: In the Nuclear Order, What Role for China? Chairman Xi Abandons Banning the Bomb By Gregory Kulacki 29 November 2016 On October 27, China faced yet another test of its willingness to lead on nuclear disarmament: The First Committee of the UN General Assembly voted on a resolution calling for negotiations toward a treaty outlawing nuclear weapons. China abstained.

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Just days after the vote, at an international arms control conference in the ancient city of Suzhou, Du Xiangwan—a former vice-director of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a founding father of the Chinese arms control community—began his remarks with a personal expression of disappointment in China's decision (link in Chinese). He argued that China should have joined the 123 nations that voted in favor of the UN resolution. He disagreed with the idea (incidentally expressed in this roundtable by my good friend Hua Han) that Beijing should defer to Moscow and Washington on the question of nuclear disarmament. As Prof. Han rightly points out, the United States and Russia are not only failing to disarm—they are pursuing policies that threaten a dangerous and destabilizing resumption of the nuclear arms race. Still, if Beijing were to follow Han's advice regarding deference to Moscow and Washington, the upcoming UN negotiations would proceed without the active support of a single nuclear weapon state (North Korea’s questionable vote in favor notwithstanding). If, however, China were to commit to supporting the negotiations, it would earn the appreciation of the non-nuclear weapon states that voted to advance the ban, and help reconstitute the Non-Aligned Movement that China crippled in October 1964 when it conducted its first nuclear weapon test. While it is far too early to be certain, the election of Donald Trump is likely to hasten the emergence of a genuinely multipolar world order. The course of the presidential transition so far suggests that President-elect Trump lacks both the will and the capability to hold together the US-centric international system created by President Truman and sustained by his successors. Trump's words and deeds during this post-election period suggest that he intends to honor his campaign promise to pursue an America-first agenda that dismisses international institutions and subordinates US allies. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's obsequious rush to Trump Tower on November 17 may have solidified the president-elect's faith in the efficacy of this agenda. Beijing's position on the UN resolution to ban nuclear weapons could be seen as a bellwether for how China will behave in a post–US-centric world. Will the Middle Kingdom cast its lot with the vast majority of nations that see the merits of continuing to construct an equitable, just, and environmentally sustainable global order? Or will Xi Jinping's regime see itself as just another national power asserting its own interests amid perceived international anarchy? If Beijing decides to remain on the sidelines of the growing global movement to ban the Bomb, even as it invests in the modernization of its nuclear weapons, the rest of the world cannot be faulted for concluding that Xi's China is an obstacle to global peace and development. Chairman Mao, the hero of the revolution that brought the Chinese Communist Party to power in 1949, famously said that the question of distinguishing friends from enemies is paramount. He also said that everyone's thinking—including the thinking of the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party—is determined by class allegiances. Would Mao want his "people's republic" to be seen as an emerging "great power" destined to replace the United States at the top of a global hierarchy, or as a developing nation struggling in solidarity with other such nations for a more equitable international order? Chairman Xi has tied the political survival of China's flagging communist regime to Mao's pedigree. His impending decision to either join with or stand apart from the global movement to abolish nuclear weapons may finally settle the long-simmering debate in China over whether Mao should be remembered as a genuine if flawed revolutionary or as the tyrannical first emperor of a new Chinese dynasty.

Gregory Kulacki is the China Project Manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), where he promotes dialogue between the United States and China on nuclear arms control. http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-order-what-role-china/chairman-xi-abandons-banning-bomb Return to Top

The Pioneer – New Delhi, India OPINION/Op-Ed New Face Leading Old Mindset By Pravin Sawhney Friday, 02 December 2016 Gen Bajwa, the new Pakistan Army Chief, has China's support and, perhaps, now of Russia’s as well. It cannot be expected that he will defuse tensions across the Line of Control until India agrees to unconditional talks With the new Pakistan Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa having taken charge, the question Indians are asking is whether he would be a hardliner like his predecessor or ease tensions with India across the Line of Control? The answer, perhaps, lies in two recent observations made by Pakistan’s High Commissioner in India, Abdul Basit. Speaking with the Indian media, he said that democracy has matured in Pakistan, the balance (in civil-military relations) is set, and the era of coup was over. What he did not say is that the balance has tilted so much in favour of the military (Army) that coups have been rendered unnecessary. And, ironically, India, by its 1998 nuclear tests, has contributed towards it. With nuclear weapons in the open, the Pakistan Army Chief has become the unquestioned strategic player responsible for Pakistan’s foreign and security policies. In choosing Bajwa, by deep selection from the list of contenders sent to him by Rawalpindi, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, like earlier times, was not picking up the candidate for the powerful post of Army Chief who may not overthrow him, but one who would give breather from alleged corruption charges levelled against him by Panama leaks. It all started with Pakistan Army Chief, General Jehangir Karamat, who in May 1998, took the decision for Pakistan to conduct its nuclear tests to ‘maintain strategic parity’, as he put it, with India. Having demonstrated nuclear weapons capability, converting it into nuclear weapons under Rawalpindi’s watch, was the natural next step. Within weeks of the nuclear tests, the Pakistan Army was briefing the Pakistan Foreign Ministry on various aspects of its nuclear policy. With the ownership of nukes, the stature of the Pakistan Army Chief, both within and outside the country, was taller than that of the Prime Minister. Given the altered situation, the Pakistan military sought a more direct role in the country’s governance and to use its nuclear weaponisation to give it a larger role on the world stage. With this in mind, Karamat, on October 5, 1998, publicly floated the idea of a National Security Council (NSC), where, in an institutionalised fashion, the Army would have a role in the Government. Prime Minister Sharif saw this as an affront to the people’s mandate, and asked Karamat to resign, which he did on October 7, 1998.

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama His successor, General Pervez Musharraf took two steps immediately on assuming command. He created the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), comprising Army officers to oversee nuclear weapons management. And he submitted the National Command Authority (NCA) organisation plan for nuclear weapons decision-making to be headed by political and military leaders to Prime Minister Sharif. Sharif was sceptical of the NCA plan as it resembled the NSC (first proposed by General Zia- ul-Haq in 1985) and had more military officers rather than civilians in it. It remained on paper until Sharif was deposed by Musharraf after the 1999 Kargil conflict. Once in power, Musharraf, on February 2, 2000, announced the creation of the NCA, consisting of military and political leaders under the direction of the SPD. Musharraf as the Chief Executive (and later as the President) was the chairman of the NCA and the SPD reported to him. Having assumed total control over all aspects of nuclear weapons policy and management, Musharraf formed the NSC (for institutionalised role of the military in governance) for which Karamat had been forced to resign. The NSC did not go far as (a) its role was unclear; whether it was an executive or advisory body, and (b) after Musharraf was deposed, President Asif Ali Zardari let it languish. Meanwhile, following the 18th Amendment to the Constitution in April 2010, whereby substantive presidential powers were handed over to the Prime Minister, Pakistan Army Chief, General Ashfaq Kayani revamped the NCA to consist of the Employment Control Committee (ECC) and Development Control Committee (DCC). The DCC, responsible for nuclear weapons management, has the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), always from the Army, as its Deputy Chairman and all members from the military (read Army) with the Prime Minister as its chairman (on paper). With the SPD as the nerve centre of the DCC firmly under the control of the Army Chief, the Prime Minister, just like the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) which notionally reports to him, had as little to do with nukes as he had with sub-conventional (terrorism) warfare. Since both the director generals of SPD and the ISI report to the Army Chief, he, and not the Prime Minister, is the key strategic player with whom the world (except India) interacts with. Being Pakistan’s foremost strategic player — which is being much more than operational commander like Indian services chiefs — Bajwa’s top priority, much like his predecessor, would be the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan’s turbulent eastern front (India) and western front (Afghanistan) gain importance because of their immediate relevance to the CPEC. Meanwhile, the northern end of the CPEC which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), is unstable. Instead of discussing the Kashmir resolution with Pakistan, the Narendra Modi Government has declared getting back PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan as its mission. The dichotomy in the end-game desired by India and Pakistan is responsible for tensions between India and Pakistan. Bajwa, who has China’s support and, perhaps, now of Russia as well, cannot be expected to defuse tensions on the LoC until India agrees to unconditional talks. The writer is co-author, with Ghazala Wahab, of the coming book, ‘Dragon on our Doorstep’ to be published by Aleph Book Company. http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/new-face-leading-old-mindset.html Return to Top

The Hankyoreh – Seoul, South Korea OPINION/Editorial [Editorial] Now Is the Time to Find Alternatives to Solving the North Korean Nuclear Issue December 2, 2016 On Nov. 30, the UN Security Council adopted a sanctions resolution against North Korea, 82 days after the North carried out its fifth nuclear test on Sep. 9. North Korea’s neighbors hope that adopting this resolution will lead to specific ways to fundamentally resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. The reason that the resolution took so long to pass was that it was not easy for the US to reach a compromise with China. The crux of the resolution is imposing a quota system on North Korea’s exports of coal to China, which were regarded as a weak point in the resolution adopted after the North’s fourth nuclear test at the beginning of the year. While the efficacy of the resolution depends as always on China, China’s attitude is quite different from South Korea, the US and Japan’s over- reliance on sanctions. China and Russia hold that the resolution must not be used to impede the basic needs of the North Korean people or to strengthen the foreign military presence on the Korean Peninsula. The current policies of South Korea, the US and Japan – which rely on sanctions against North Korea and call on China to play a larger role – have only enabled North Korea to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Now is the time for South Korea and the US to clearly acknowledge that the nuclear issue cannot be resolved through pressure and sanctions alone and to seek alternatives. Whatever those alternatives may be, they must begin with restoring the framework of dialogue. Since not only the US but also South Korea are preparing to hand over power to a new administration, it will not be easy to forge new policies, but this is in fact a good opportunity for a fresh start. Since the next administration in the US is not tied to the current policy failure, it could easily initiate dialogue. North Korea needs to face up to the fact of its intensifying international isolation and move down the road toward denuclearization. If the North wants to use dialogue to reach a peace treaty, the right choice is to act first by freezing its nuclear activity, for example. Committing a new provocation to protest the UN resolution represents short-sighted adventurism that would only worsen the situation. The administration of President Park Geun-hye should bear much of the blame for the North Korean nuclear issue getting this continually worse. It’s a mistake for government officials to nonetheless be talking about maintaining or even expanding current policies. It’s time to think about what can be done to find new momentum for resolving the nuclear issue. http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_editorial/773018.html Return to Top

ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation. The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.

Issue No.1243, 2 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538