Electric Vehicles are our future, …today!
John McVicker MAREA – Mid-Atlantic Renewable Energy Association February 26, 2019 Agenda for Today
• My personal background • History through 2010 • 2010-2014 • 2014-2019 • Adoption rates of EVs in the USA and World • Today’s Electrification trends • Choosing an EV • Charging Topics • The Secret Sauce(s) or “killer app” for EV adoption • Discussion and Q&A A little about me
• Born and raised in “the land of Nikola Tesla’s big idea”, Niagara Falls, NY • Lived within walking distance of two 2.4GW power plants • Interest in energy at an early age… • Adopted at birth, raised with conservation ethics A little about me • Saw very few electric vehicles through my decades • Became interested in EVs on the small scale when taking my son RC car racing in the later ‘00s • The hobby was moving from fuel to batteries and Lithium- Polymer RC scale was growing fast • Can’t we do this with regular cars also? • My study began in 2009, 2 MAREA fairs, 2 EV Tech Expos • Chevy Volt (1st year) and Solar PV (2012) 70 MWh so far EVs through time • EVs began over 120 years ago. • Henry Ford’s wife preferred an Electric Car EVs through time • Various manufacturers built electrics through the early 1900s until oil became plentiful.
• Not much happened…
• Until GM made EV1
Photos were taken at The Henry Ford museum, Dearborn, Michigan EVs through time • Even in the milestone year of 2000 EVs were : – small scale – Too costly – No public infrastructure for charging – They became a hobbyist project for home conversions because … Nobody was making them
– Until… EVs through time • Lithium-Ion batteries --- this is the EV “gas tank” • With the advent of wide-spread manufacturer of Lithium Ion or “Li-Ion” batteries, widespread transportation options were made possible • Energy Density and Power Density were (too) good Why do we want EVs?
Emissions from single-driver cars causes emissions but may not be solved by EVs. Emissions control is one goal of EVs. Easy oil gave us this: Why do we want EVs?
EVs still don’t solve our desire for convenience. At least in this case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLpCMdVcqTI Why do we want EVs?
Do we want more of the individualized lifestyle or shared density/efficiency? We continue to drive more
This seems wrong We continue to drive more
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ftodddavidson/2018/ 11/05/electric-vehicles-are-coming-and-new- england-and-california-better-watch- out/#13db9fce2c41 And use more energy
https://www.iea.org/statistics/?country=WORLD&ye ar=2016&category=Key%20indicators&indicator=TP ESbySource&mode=chart&dataTable=BALANCES
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption 3rd world needs
Today, CO2 per capita is higher in 1st world countries (ie. USA, CA, EU)
But total CO2 output rising faster in growing cities and countries as emerging markets evolve and generate middle classes
1400 cars added to Delhi’s roads per day – historically bicycles/scooters
Smaller cars and scooters in emerging markets – target for EV focus
Commutes in large cities like Moscow, Delhi, NYC, Shanghai and others can be 2-3 hours per day for many workers due to single-passenger autos
What does it look like? 3rd world needs
CO2 output per capita is higher in 1st world countries (ie. USA, CA, EU)
But total CO2 output rising faster in growing cities and countries as emerging markets evolve and generate middle classes
1400 cars added to Delhi’s roads per day – historically bicycles/scooters
Smaller cars and scooters in emerging markets – EV focus
Commutes in large cities like Moscow, Delhi, NYC, Shanghai and others can be 2-3 hours per day for many workers due to 1-passenger vehicles
https://www.techinasia.com/talk/indian-traffic-mess-problems-opportunities 3rd world needs
3rd world wants this – but is it sustainable even with EVs? What our the options for EVs?
Options for choosing an EV should be based on your own needs.
What is an EV to you? Commuter?
Small? Large? Personal? Community-shared?
What can you buy or use here in the USA?
A quick look at the possibilities of choosing electric- transportation… Two wheels
Most of our first vehicles was probably a scooter or bike. We may still ride them today.
In many countries, adults continue to commute on 2 wheels using scooters.
Cities are where these would do best. Two wheels Sharing systems like Jump, Lime and others… Cities and campus due to limited range Integrated IoT connections for borrow/access. Two wheels Electric-assist bikes are actually used widely in Asian countries such as China and India. So many options.
https://www.radpowerbikes.com http://www.outriderusa.com Two wheels Electric-scooters will be the #1 electric vehicle sales category, if not are already. India/China/Vietnam/etc.
Silence S01 – one of dozens of brands… https://preorder.silence.eco/en/ Two wheels Electric Motorcycles for those wanting more range
https://www.zeromotorcycles.com Toys and Tools Lawn Equipment
http://www.meangreenproducts.com/cxr5260/ FUVs (Fun Utility Vehicles)
https://www.arcimoto.com/
https://ranger.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-ev/ Pickup Trucks/Vans are coming Pickup Trucks/Vans are coming
https://www.bollingermotors.com/ RVs RVs Buses
Quieter rides and street sound Fuel shipped in “by wire” No idling-emissions in cities Less maintenance
http://en.byd.com/usa/bus/
https://www.proterra.com/ City air quality in China will benefit for their 30,000+ eBuses deployed per year. Trucks
Many manufacturers are on board to make trucks. Trucks
The two making the most news
Nikola Motors: HFC and Electric Tesla: 2 Electric semis
Primary problem to solve is a national charging infrastructure https://chargedevs.com/newswire/nikola-announces-battery-electric-semi-will-join-fuel-cells-in-its-lineup/ https://www.tesla.com/semi Boats and Ships
Ships are one of the more polluting vehicles per mile – it is wise to electrify them. Your own personal air-car? Shared EVs such as BART and MTA
One of the most widely-used EVs right now are mass-transit trains.
The two posted here are NOT the world’s largest metro systems… Now… How about Cars Current model options in USA
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ EV Futures – 2012 (passenger cars) My thoughts as written in 2012… Success so far? • Businesses with 120V charging no • 240V “shoppertunity” charging some • Continued lowering of input costs / scale some • Batteries are improving yes • EREV vs. BEV …. Getting ICE’d or Opp’d some • Hybrids (non-Prius alernatives) no • Microhybrids (stop-start) some • puTRUCKS (Via, Smith, AMP) no • bigTRUCKS (delivery & 18+ wh) yes • 10-15 new EV models from other companies are announced or in the works YES! US sales – 2015-2020 (Aug 2014)
New Car Sales in the USA Help for sales 2011 – -- 17,425 • States’ rebates 2012 – 200% -- 52,581 • Federal tax credit 2013 – 85% -- 97,507 • HOV Lane access, fleet sales 2014 – 30% --125,000 • More public charging locations 2015 – 30% --162,000 • Lowered costs & battery advances 2016 – 35% --220,000 • Wealth effect 2017 – 20% --263,000 Problems for sales 2018 – 30% --341,900 • Cost-advantage not good enough Estimates beyond here • Gas prices remain low / US oil Are very hard to do. • Fear of new technology Compare to Chevy Cruze • Limits of BEV, EREV too complex at 300,000 per year • Don’t understand plugin costs • News agencies, negative press • Influence of family and friends Monthly sales and EV news: • Used off-lease sales, used Prius • Waiting for future models www.insideevs.com • Waiting for next-gen batteries US sales – 2015-2020 (Aug 2014)
New Car Sales in the USA Help for sales 2011 – -- 17,425 • States’ rebates 2012 – 200% -- 52,581 • Federal tax credit 2013 – 85% -- 97,507 • HOV Lane access, fleet sales 2014 – 30% --125,000 • More public charging locations 2015 – 30% --162,000 • Lowered costs & battery advances 2016 – 35% --220,000 • Wealth effect 2017 – 20% --263,000 Problems for sales 2018 – 30% --341,900 • Cost-advantage not good enough Estimates beyond here • Gas prices remain low / US oil Are very hard to do. • Fear of new technology Comparehttps://insideevs.com/monthly to Chevy Cruze • Limits-plug- inof- salesBEV,- scorecard/EREV too complex at 300,000 per year • Don’t understand plugin costs • News agencies, negative press • Influence of family and friends Monthly sales and EV news: • Used off-lease sales, used Prius • Waiting for future models www.insideevs.com • Waiting for next-gen batteries US plug-in car sales – this decade
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ Was the wealth effect causal?
USA Sales Total 400000
350000
300000
250000
200000 Sales Total 150000
100000
50000
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CA plug-in car sales – this decade
Canada is a big importer of used USA- based plug-in vehicles as well.
Quebec dealers buy USA used cars and import them for re-sale.
Third party EV repair shops are opening in Quebec.
https://emc-mec.ca/wp-content/uploads/EMC-Sales-Report-Rapport-de-ventes-M%C3%89C-2018.pdf China plug-in car sales 2018
358 Thousand vs. 1.1 Million
If quality becomes good, I expect Chinese companies will start USA sales, ie. BYD… http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ World plug-in car sales 2018
Chinese automakers include partners to GM and Ford.
- BYD, BAIC, SAIC, Geely, Chery
- Momentum into 2019 will take Chinese numbers to the top 3+ of the chart for 2019 total sales.
- China is now #1 world market for EV cars, buses and trucks and also ICE cars as well
BMW and the VW Group are still too PHEV-based to be considered one of the leading Legacy OEMs. Maybe things will look different in 2020?
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ Activity in 2019 – Lots of data
Carmaker news - VW – lots of news about charging network and revamping entire lines (incl. Porsche,Audi) - Daimler to make 10+ all electric by 2022 - BMW to electrify entire lineup of cars - GM to produce up to 20 electric models by 2023 (mainly in China with partners) - Ford to make electric and hybrid trucks - Telsa to make a Model Y, trucks of some kinds and a new roadster by 2020+ - Nissan-Renault expanding sales regions of some cars, adding new models
Busmakers - Proterra and BYD selling electric buses in the USA and Canada and elsewhere - China adding tens of thousands of electric buses per year (385,000 worldwide now)
New manufacturers to look into - Rivian Motors to partner with GM & Amazon - Workhorse to make pickup truck the W-15 - Bollinger Motors – interesting truck concept - Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp in Canada to make 3-wheeler in volume at GM plant - Arcimoto making a small 3-wheeler (FUV – Fun Utility Vehicle) - Many more Activity in 2019 – State actions
https://www.dsireinsight.com/publications/ Some trends through 2025
India adds 1400 new ICE cars in the city of Delhi. Per Day! E-Buses to Surge Even Faster Than EVs as Conventional Vehicles Fade E-Scooters and E-Bikes should also surge faster, in number, than E-Cars https://about.bnef.com/blog/e-buses-surge-even-faster-evs-conventional-vehicles-fade/ Some trends through 2025
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/ford-hints-at-electric-version-of-f-series-pickup-truck/ Some trends through 2025
https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/electric-vehicles Some trends through 2025
China manufacturers can be expected to be selling their products worldwide, including the USA in large numbers. Batteries are changing…
https://schedule.thebatteryshow.com/session/china-the-emerging-giant-in-vehicle-electrification/860192 New … or Used?
Choosing an EV offers an expanding price range due to the used market.
Used EVs can be had under $10k now up through used Teslas in $30k’s
It may be a better option to “dip your toe” into the EV market through a lower priced used vehicle.
Used vehicles can be a more-sustainable and economic choice rather than buying the new vehicle.
EVs should last longer than Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars
Some off-warranty repairs can be moderately expensive
Batteries so-far haven’t shown signs of “wearing out” New … or Used?
Battery choices for Used may be important for longevity. Volt – choose a car with lower lifetime mpg (less battery recharges) Leaf – choose a car from colder climates if older model years Tesla – lower mileage is better
NCA: Tesla NMC: Volt, 2017+ Leafs, etc. LMO: Early Leaf LFP: Early GM Spark, Fisker
https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion New … or Used?
How cheap can used be and still “drive like new”?
autotrader.com cars.com ebaymotors.com
When buying used - you’re still “driving EV daily” - Volts still offer long-range driving - Leafs, be aware of older unit battery longevity issues
https://www.autoblog.com/2016/02/16/cheap-used-nissan-leaf-ev/ New … Credits/rebates
• PA offers a rebate program for alternative fueled vehicles.
• $2,000 for Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Battery Electric and HFC Vehicles (w/ 1099) https://www.dep.pa.gov/Citizens/GrantsLoansRebates/Alternative-Fuels-Incentive-Grant/Pages/Alternative-Fuel-Vehicles.aspx
• NJ offers a no-sales-tax program for Battery Electric vehicles
• Other States incentives and Federal tax credit of up to $7500 https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/electric-vehicles-tax-credits-and-other-incentives
• Federal credit now is $3750 for Tesla for new sales as of Jan 1 2019
• Will drop to $1875 for cars delivered after June 30 2019
• GM-made drop Federal Credit capability to $3750 after Mar 30 2019 (Volt, Bolt)
• All other manufacturers including new incoming Chinese vehicles will be $7500 until they reach the 200,000 starting point of phase-out of each. Charging your EV
Type Description Miles/hr of charge
L1 120V socket (up to 13A or so) = 1600W (lower < 45*F)
L2 240V hardwire/sock = 20A, 30A, 48A, 72A Check with model specs to know what KW charge rate is KW = V*A*1000 = 6.6KW = 240V*30A (ie. Leaf)
Most public L2 is 30A or less Tesla HPWC is 48A Adapter for J-1772 avail. L3/DCFC + Direct Current charging station -- a public-station on a network evGO, Tesla Supercharger (proprietary to Tesla)
Popular brands of Chargers for home: Clipper Creek, JuiceBox, Schneider, Chargepoint https://wiki.ezvid.com/best-level-2-ev-chargers When to charge?
If possible, charge when it is cooler and demand is low. Not every day is the same on the grid.
https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations.aspx Where to charge?
1. Charge at home nightly – Every morning, a “full tank”
2. Charge at public chargers • Review rates – try not to pay more than .20/kWh, $2/hr, $5/session • There are still free public charger sites • Not all public L2 charging sites work, Tesla has issues also • www.plugshare.com or Google Maps to location stations • Public Charging is still not designed well or prolific
3. For EREVs like Volt, Energi – charging not essential for trips (40+ mpg)
4. Dealerships offering some charging opportunities
5. Power companies not yet involved in selling their power through stations Oil prices have fallen 2014-2019
A 40% drop in price spurred truck/SUV sales. One issue to discuss - Winter
Charging One rule of thumb is consider 30-50% Preconditioning range loss in winter a possibility. Planning Driving Choosing comfort modes will lower range Tip for Gas Car Owners of all EVs.
’19 Nissan Leaf moving to use heat pump.
https://pluginamerica.org/ev-tips-for-winter-weather What value can EVs add?
EVs are known to help with:
Air quality
Lower your maintenance schedule/costs
Improved driving dynamics / better weight bias
Quicker off the line / instant torque
May save on fuel costs vs. high mpg ICE
What else will they need to do to add value to a buyer?
Avoid current gasoline taxation (state and federal) The Smart Grid – with cars
IoT makes this possible both for the Car and the Charging stations. The Smart Home
The “Killer App” of the EV is that the car becomes your home’s power generation if the grid fails. Two-way power-flow is essential to driving consumer demand for EVs on a wider-scale. With or without Solar PV on home. The Smart Home
Generac is a leading generator supplier company. Growth continues as homes and businesses grow their standby-power demands. A lot of interest in ResEnSto
Residential Energy Storage and Smart Home industries What is missing?
The Car makers allowing High Voltage two-way energy exchange to complete the puzzle. Nissan has offerings in Japan.
Pilot R&D projects in USA and other countries such as Germany and Switzerland.
Only a matter of time and cost… More work underway
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-powers-up-automakers-u-s-headquarters/ More work underway
https://inhabitat.com/nissan-leaf-vehicle-to-home-technology-powers-office-buildings-in-japan/ Why do V2G and V2H? Why do V2G and V2H? Summary
EVs can lower our energy demand and offset CO2
EVs can lower our automotive maintenance costs
EVs quiet-down traffic and can be safer for drivers
EVs can be fun to drive due to power profile
Further studies needed to determine if EVs can completely replace ICE vehicles in this century
The world getting off oil usage can be done this century but… it may not happen without a substantial effort Summary
Thank you to MAREA for the opportunity to discuss EVs
Q & A
John McVicker [email protected] Appendix of Links
Daily Periodical sites for EV news chargedevs.com cleantechnica.com insideevs.com greencarreports.com https://electrek.co/
User Forums for mainstream electric vehicles teslamotorsclub.com mynissanleaf.com gm-volt.com Bmwi3owner.com
Battery Technology EV Tech Expo proceedings (2018) http://schedule.thebatteryshow.com/track/open-tech-forum-presentation-free Battery Information (general) http://www.batteryuniversity.com Jeff Dahn seminars are worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qi03QawZEk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WpQh4kZ_MU Appendix of Links
Demographics, etc. https://www4.uwm.edu/cuts/2050/demo2050.pdf https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/docs/BARTfactsheet_June17_0.pdf
Bicycles / Trikes www.radpowerbikes.com www.outriderusa.com Appendix of Links
Etc. PJM Operations: https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations.aspx Air Quality: https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-national-summary Mileage trends: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/18jultvt/
The Battery Show / EV Tech Expo 2018 free presentation proceedings: http://schedule.thebatteryshow.com/track/open-tech-forum-presentation-free
Nissan Energy Ecosystem https://newsroom.nissan-global.com/releases/release- 860852d7040eed420ffbaebb2241c3ea-nissan-to-create-electric-vehicle-ecosystem
Movies: “Revenge of the Electric Car” and “Who killed the Electric Car” www.iea.org/evi/EVCityCasebook.pdf www.theevproject.com/documents.php www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future Appendix of Links
Etc. DSIRE studies: https://www.dsireinsight.com/publications/ Appendix of Links
RVs https://www.electrive.com/2018/12/05/germany-fully-electric-campervan-ready-for- market/ https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/winnebago-all-electric-rv-platform-electric-motorhome/