Sentiment Dampened Significantly by Brexit Vote

Economics

Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey Sentiment dampened significantly by Brexit vote

• Investment demand falls sharply with London seeing the most pronounced decline • Increasing share of respondents across the UK now feel the market is in an early downturn phase • Twelve month capital value and rental projections move into negative territory

*The Q2 sample was collected between 24 June and 12 July meaning all Back at the UK-wide level and, despite a softening demand responses were gathered after the referendum outcome was known. backdrop, the supply of property for investment purposes still The Q2 2016 RICS UK Commercial Property Market Survey remains tight. Indeed, investable stock reportedly declined shows a significant deterioration in market sentiment following for an eighth consecutive quarter. In keeping with trends over the Brexit vote. The heightened sense of caution is visible much of the past two years, the lack of supply remains most across both investment and occupier sides of the market, apparent in the industrial sector. Even though low supply will with uncertainty pushing rental and capital value projections provide a certain degree of support to prices, respondents do into negative territory. Whether or not the adverse hit to now expect capital values to fall over the year ahead across sentiment is a knee-jerk reaction that will unwind as the result almost all areas of the market. Prime industrial assets are the is digested, or the start of a more prolonged downturn, remains sole exception, where the outlook is flat for the time being. At to be seen. the other end of spectrum, values in the secondary retail and office segments are expected to see the steepest decline, On a UK-wide basis, occupier demand failed to rise for the recording a net balance of -29% and -23% respectively. first time since 2012. The headline net balance fell from +21% previously to a reading of zero in Q2. Declines were reported In London, twelve month capital value expectations are in the office and retail areas of the market but demand proved steeped in negative territory across the board. A net balance somewhat more resilient across the industrial sector. The of -35% more surveyors anticipate a decline in all-property regional breakdown shows the occupier demand gauge prices over the next year. As recently as the fourth quarter moderated across all parts of the country, although the shift of last year, a balance of +73% more respondents expected was most noticeable in London. Alongside this, availability capital values to rise (rather than fall) on a twelve month remains constricted, with the supply of leasable space more or basis. Elsewhere, twelve month price projections are mostly less unchanged in the office and retail sectors during Q2, while negative across secondary markets while respondents expect industrial availability continued to decline. prime segments to hold up a little better. At the three year time horizon, however, all areas (with the exception of Scotland and Worries over a potential hit to business confidence, caused London) are projected to see capital values return growth. by political and economic uncertainty, appear to be reflected in respondents’ rental outlook. This is especially the case Although opinions are mixed, the largest share of respondents over the shorter term. Indeed, the headline three month rent across the UK (36%) feel the market is now in the early expectations net balance dropped from +26% to -7% in Q2. stages of a downturn. All parts of the UK saw an increase in The office and retail sectors experienced the steepest decline, the proportion of contributors sensing the market is turning with the reading for both now comfortably in negative territory. down. London exhibits the highest proportion, with 54% of In the industrial sector, although the net balance softened respondents taking this view. notably, it remains positive given the very tight supply and In an extra question included in the Q2 survey, respondents demand conditions. When the results are disaggregated, were asked their views on the potential impact of the changes the rental outlook is most negative in London. Over the next to Stamp Duty contained in the March 2016 budget (a twelve months, rents are projected to fall by around 3% at the new marginal system was introduced). Across the UK, the all-sector level. Within this, rents across the secondary retail majority of contributors (57%) feel the change is likely to sub market are expected to come under the most significant have little impact on transaction volumes, while 24% believe downward pressure. it could reduce volumes. Only 4% expect the policy to boost The weakness in demand is perhaps even more visible on transactions, with 15% unsure either way. In the capital, the the investment side of the market. During Q2, the investment proportion who feel the new regime will reduce transactions enquiries series fell sharply, posting a net balance of -16% came in a little higher than the national average, at 43%. (down from +25% in Q1). What’s more, all traditional sectors That said, a significant share (42%) think it will have little covered in the survey experienced a drop-off in investor impact. When asked if the higher tax payable on property interest. Foreign investor demand declined at an even greater purchases over £1.05million will be reflected in lower deal rate, as the net balance fell to -27%. While respondents prices, 50% responded ‘Yes’, 31% answered ‘No’, and 19% did in virtually all parts of the UK noted a decline in overall not know. The West Midlands (70%), Northern Ireland (65%) investment enquiries, the trend was again most pronounced and the South East (61%) displayed the highest proportion of in London. In fact, at -41%, the investment enquiries gauge for respondents who sense the higher tax burden will reduce deal the capital was the weakest since 2009. prices.

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Commercial property - all sectors

Occupier Demand Availability Net balance % Net balance % 60 80

40 60

20 40

0 20

-20 0

-40 -20

-60 -40

-80 -60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Rent Expectations Inducements Net balance % Net balance % 60 100

40 80

20 60

0 40

-20 20

-40 0

-60 -20

-80 -40 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Investment Enquiries Capital Value Expectations

Net balance % Net balance % 60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40

-60 -60

-80 -80

-100 -100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Commercial property - Sector Breakdown

Occupier Demand Availability

80 Net balance % 80 Net balance %

60 Office 60 Industrial Office Retail 40 Industrial Retail 40 20

0 20

-20 0

-40 -20 -60

-40 -80

-100 -60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Rent Expectations Inducements

80 Net balance % 100 Net balance %

Office 60 80 Industrial Office Retail 40 Industrial 60 Retail 20 40

0 20 -20

0 -40

-20 -60

-80 -40

-100 -60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Investment Enquiries Capital Value Expectations

80 Net balance % 80 Net balance %

60 Office 60 Office Industrial Industrial Retail 40 Retail 40

20 20

0 0 -20 -20 -40

-40 -60

-60 -80

-80 -100

-100 -120 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Commercial property - Additional Charts

12 Month Capital Value Expectations 12 Month Rent Expectations

90 Net balance % 90 Net balance % Q1 2016 75 Q2 2016 75

Q1 2016 60 60 Q2 2016

45 45

30 30

15 15

0 0

-15 -15

-30 -30

-45 -45 Prime Office Secondary Prime Secondary Prime Retail Secondary Average Prime Office Secondary Prime Secondary Prime Retail Secondary Average Office Industrial Industrial Retail Office Industrial Industrial Retail

Market Valuations Property Cycle

70 % of Respondents % of Respondents

60 Peak 13.2%

Q1 2016 40 Early Downturn Q2 2016 Mid-Upturn 36.0% 16.1%

Early Upturn 10 20.5% Bottom of the Cycle Mid-Downturn 16.0% 6.0% 0 Very Cheap Cheap Fair Value Expensive Very Expensive

Extra Question 1 Extra Question 2

What impact do you think the SDLT changes will have on transaction Do you think the higher tax payable will be reflected in lower deal prices? volumes 70 % of respondents 60 % of respondents

60 50

50 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0 Boost Transactions Reduce Transactions Little impact Don't Know Yes No Don't know

4 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

East Midlands Gilbert Harvey, Northampton, Andrew Bastin, Norwich, Mike Phoenix Bsc MRICS, Budworth Hardcastle, gharvey@ Bastin Commercial, andrew@ Stevenage, Brown & Lee, mike. Ben Coleman FRICS, budworthhardcastle.com - The bastincommercial.co.uk - Post [email protected] - Northampton, Ben Brexit vote that has had some the Brexit vote, we now know The decision to leave the EU will Coleman Associates, ben@ implications but with the slower what we don’t know - which is cause further uncertainty in the bencolemanassociates. holiday period also now upon no good for any market. Expect markets which means that the co.uk - Too early to judge the us hard to establish the effects a deadening effect on major next 3 months could prove very consequences with any accuracy going forward. investment and occupation difficult in terms of transactions but the result is bound to have a decisions, and on uncommitted being agreed and completed. negative impact bearing in mind John A Smith, Spalding, R development schemes, until at the uncertainty created. Longstaff & Co, jas@longstaff. least the domestic politics have Nick Haywood MRICS, Harlow, com - No change become more certain. Sbh Page Read, nick.haywood@ Brendan Bruder Bsc MRICS, sbhpageread.co.uk - This survey Kettering, Abbey Ross Chartered Mark Simpson, Leicester, Sturgis Joe Reubin, Chelmsford, is completed 1 week after the Surveyors - A first sign of Snow and Astill - Current - On Lambert Smith Hampton, Brexit vote. Investment sentiment genuine optimism in the Kettering hold as a result of referendum. [email protected] - I have pretty is bearish. Occupiers dependent property market for several Redevelopment of Leicester pessimistic expectations for the upon the construction industry years is well advanced with the City Council office site, Welford market in the immediate future are pulling out of deals. speculative development of the Road. Numerous new student flat now we’ve voted to leave. We 13 unit Pytchley Business Park developments. are at a point where speculative Philip Woolner, Cambridge, at Junction 9 of the A14. Grounds development coming forward in Cheffins, philip.woolner@ works are still continuing at Nigel Carnall, Mansfield Oop, the regions may be at risk. The cheffins.co.uk - The lead up to Cransley Park at the junction of W.A.Barnes LLP, njbc@ market is now at the mercy of the referendum saw a slowing of the A14 and A43 and there is wabarnes.co.uk - The demand how we exit the EU and in the demand in the market across all little doubt that the out of town for small industrial units is good hands of our elected leaders to sectors, especially in the prime market is beginning to move, but there is limited demand for strike the best possible deal. I markets. The Brexit result has even whilst the Kettering town offices and retail shops. have confidence that the market already led to transactions falling centre commercial property will come good and we will have away but its real impact will only scene remains dormant. Tim Garratt, Nottingham, Innes stability and growth but at this be seen in the coming weeks England, tgarratt@innes- time the market will be ruled by and months. Cambridge is pretty Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, england.com - After Brexit - who international politics and not resilient but it is unlikely to be Daventry, Abbey Ross Chartered knows. traditional forces. unaffected. Surveyors - The Revised scheme for Mulberry Place/Site 5 by Eastern Julian Haywood Smith, Robert Flint, Norwich, Arnolds Henry Boot now includes two Colchester, Whybrow Keys, robert.flint@arnoldskeys. supermarkets, six shops, a Alan Matthews, Huntingdon, Chartered Surveyors, julian. com - General confidence in the hotel, family restaurant and a Barker Storey Matthews, arm@ [email protected] - market is good. The balance of retirement home development bsm.uk.com - The level of Shortage of mid-size ranged supply & demand in secondary in association with McCarthy & enquiries tailed off considerably B2/B8 stock has meant fewer offices has been brought in line Stone. The big box distribution in the weeks prior to the incentives and pressure on rents by the introduction of PD rights. warehousing market centred referendum and now that the and yields. Freeholds particularly This will lead slowly but surely to on DIRFT and IDI Gazeley’s country has voted to leave the sought after by owner occupiers an increase in office rents, which Royal Oak Estate have added EU I think this will persist for and for SIPP investments. may in turn actually lead to some more than 1m sq ft speculatively some time to come. I believe Larger units still not shifting, office development. to the local market, with Ford things will start to settle down although indications that well let also coming forward on their once we have some certainty on and secured investment values Sam Kingston, Norwich, Roche Leamington Way proposed trading with Europe but I think are holding up. Retail rents Chartered Surveyors, sam. development. that is unlikely until next year at under pressure - Comparison kingston@rochesurveyors. the earliest. Goods tenants retrenching co.uk - The way the occupational Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, from online sales competition. market deals with the fallout from Northampton, Abbey Ross Adrian Fennell, Norwich, Noticeable that High Street the Brexit vote is going to be key Chartered Surveyors - Roche, adrian.fennell@ space is being taken by A3/A5 to the real estate marker over Northampton Borough Council rochesurveyors.co.uk - A users, and planners becoming the next 12 months. The early and Keir have announced a substantial proportion of the realistic in granting consents. indicators are that there will be speculative development of secondary office availability has Uncertainty over Brexit intentions drop in occupier demand which 60,000 sq ft of brand new been taken out of the market, not yet being translated into could see rental and freehold Grade A offices at Northampton being earmarked for residential/ any measurable down turn in values fall in the short term. Riverside Enterprise Zone student accommodation. New commercial property investments The investment market will also together with the intention of build offices are generally in this region. see a short term fall in values, building a 1,550 space car park uneconomic. Norwich’s regional however with a diverse economic at the newly redeveloped Castle dominance as a shopping Martin Day, Norwich, Martin Day base, Norwich and Norfolk Railway Station. These offices location continues and we Chartered Surveyors, martin@ is well placed to weather the will not improve the town’s office anticipate continuing rental martindaycs.co.uk – Uncertainty. uncertainty. base credentials but it is the growth. first office development in the Northampton central area for twenty years.

5 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

London Gary Mcnamara, London, Arca Philip Walker, London, Philip North East PRM, gmcnamara@arcaprm. Walker Consulting Limited, Alastair Chapman, London, com - The London market is [email protected] - It is Nick Crass, Teesside, Crass & Matthews & Goodman LLP, slowly finding its feet following difficult to price/value property Co. Chartered Surveyors, nick. achapman@matthews-goodman. Brexit and it is likely prime asset assets because of the post-brexit [email protected] - Depressing. co.uk - The City of London values will be underpinned by gloom which is unlikely to lift for A more positive outlook is office market is paused, post foreign investors looking for a some months. needed. Brexit. A few transactions are safe haven. To find out where the still proceeding but the market market is, buyers need to bid and Richard F Sanders, London, Colin Vance, Sunderland, is awaiting economic clarity negotiate in order to find trading Sanders Laing, rfsanders@ Sunderland City Council, following the Leave vote and the levels as there are no forced sanders-laing.co.uk - Uncertainty [email protected]. ensuing political questions over sellers as yet (albeit some funds due to Brexit will last 3 - 5 years uk - I expect prime space will EU disengagement and Single want to bolster cash holding for and impact particularly on improve (both capital values and Market entry terms. Before the various reasons). property/construction industry rental). The remainder will see Referendum, market activity across all sectors....catastrophe no change. I wonder about the slowed predictably, but it is Keith Whale, London, KW in waiting. effect of Brexit. difficult to ascertain, either then Advisory Ltd, keith@kwadvisory. or now, how much of this pause co.uk - Brexit has and will be Richard Grillo, Greater London, David Jackson, Darlington, for thought would in any case be the critical influence that will Grillo Europe Limited, dg@ Jackson & Partners, david@ attributable to a natural market take many months to absorb the grilloeurope.com - The market jackson-partners.co.uk - Market cycle. Our expectation is that consequences. has been overheated in all confidence was starting to business will generally continue, sectors. The vote to leave the return with reasonable take up but with some short term Kim White Bsc MRICS, City - C, EU will result in a welcome particularly of quality offices. downward adjustment in rents Kinney Green - Too early to see pause but in the longer term There is a shortage of quality pending indications as to how the impact of “Brexit”. once things settle down the UK accommodation, however, values Brexit negotiations may proceed. will continue to be an attractive are not high enough to justify Louisa, London, Nash Bond, market for safe haven investors. new development. In an area Charles Ostroumoff, London, [email protected] - We that is dependent on EU funding Arca Property Risk Management, should not have come out of the Stephen A Richmond BSc for most development it will be [email protected] - The EU! MRICS, Bexley / Bromley, Altus interesting to see what impact impact of the vote to leave the - This is the first survey post this will have on the local market. EU has yet to filter through to Mark Cherry, London, GAM Brexit. It remains to be seen values although the fact that the International Management what impact this has on the Gavin Black, Newcastle Upon vote has taken place will be good Ltd, [email protected] commercial property market. The Tyne, Gavin Black and Partners, for deal flow. Relative to bonds - Brexit confusion - valuation expectation is that we are likely gavin@ gavin black.co.uk - Grant and equities UK Real Estate still issues due to lack of post Brexit to see a period of uncertainty funding key to new development looks attractive. The Sterling comparables. which will be reflected in less and position going forward is devaluation is a positive for transactional activity particularly uncertain. foreign investors and as long as Mark Wills-Williams, London, M in the investment market. capital markets hold up, values Squared, mark.willswilliams@ John Craig, Newcastle Upon could remain high in comparison googlemail.com - Stamp duty Tim Gauld, London, Bonsors, Tyne, Sanderson Weatherall, to historic measures for some has had a negative effect. [email protected] - Great [email protected] - time to come. Retailers are expanding but uncertainty in market following Brexit throws everything into cautiously and only on terms that Brexit. Lots of mixed messages melting pot. Chris Burrows, London, Talbot suit them as it is still generally from investors. Scott, [email protected] - a tenants market. It remains to Julie Wallin, Darlington, At the moment,6 days after the be seen how investor appetite is Will Staniland, London, Carver Commercial Chartered referendum, the mood is one of affected by the Brexit vote. Rumsey and Partners, will@ Surveyors, juliew@carvergroup. uncertainty! rumseyandpartners.co.uk - I co.uk - General improvement in Mike Riley, Burton upon Trent, have responded to this survey on region over last twelve months, Craig Hinvest, London, Matthews Waypoint Asset Management, 30th June. Had i done so a week shortage of industrial stock & Goodman, chinvest@ [email protected] - Since ago my comments would have particularly with yards. Office matthews-goodman.co.uk - In the EU vote investor sentiment been more optimistic looking market still weak, rateable values the immediate aftermath of has become negative on the UK. forward as i didn’t think the remain a problem. Brexit, there is a great deal of London will be hit fairly hard. country would be foolish and ill- uncertainty about the future informed enough to vote Brexit. Mark Cottam, Durham, Cottam course of all markets. It is likely Peter Friend, London, HNF Like the open ended funds and Co., mark@cottamandco. to be several months before Property, psf@hnfproperty. with their valuers, the RICS com - A little too soon to call any clear trends become com - Our immediate market is would probably need to seek its the market and the stability or established. Occupiers may boosted by inward investment members views on all of these otherwise following Brexit vote. put moves on hold, rationalise into Croydon. The wider market questions on a weekly basis as their space needs and/or look to appears overvalued. matters play out over the coming Steven Cole, Newcastle more flexible property solutions, months and years. upon Tyne, Lexicon Cole Ltd, including serviced/managed [email protected] - office space. EU exit last week so I predict a huge amount of uncertainty and therefore reduction in number and value in relation to transactions.

6 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Timothy Duff, Newcastle John Ogden MRICS, Mike Redshaw Ma (Cantab) Henry Taggart MRICS, upon Tyne, Lambert Smith Manchester, CB Richard Ellis FRICS, Wigan, Nolan Redshaw, Coleraine, O’Connor Kennedy Hampton, [email protected] - Ltd - The outcome of the EU [email protected],uk - Turtle - The local property market Considerable market uncertainty vote has clearly had a profound Demand within the industrial has certainly seen improvement due to Brexit. impact on pricing and demand. sector from both occupiers over the last 6 months. Supply of It is too early to assess the and investors is continuing to new properties remains limited at North West long term impact. Significant strengthen. present. investment continues around Antony Hill, Southport, Antony NW. Paul Nolan Bsc (Hons) FRICS, Jeffrey Millar-Wilson, Ballymena, Hill Group - Market is quiet. Bury, Nolan Redshaw - The Watt Surveying, Jeffrey@ Few fresh instructions. Brexit Jonathan Mills, Manchester, market has been in the doldrums wattsurveying.co.uk - The Brexit may take time to sink in. Next 3 Metis Real Estate Advisors Ltd, since Easter and shows no sign result has produced a ridiculous months may see some results jmills@metisrealestate – It is of improvement. degree of uncertainty feeding in Southport Town Centre very difficult to accurately reflect the off a febrile media from both quiet. market today due to the Brexit Paul Nolan Bsc (Hons) FRICS, the left and right wing of the decision 12 day ago. Oldham, Nolan Redshaw - The political spectrum. A confused, Brent Forbes BSc MRICS, market has been slow since self-serving and ineffectual Preston, Petty chartered Martin Connolly BSc FRICS, Easter. It could be a difficult year. political class, topped off with surveyors, [email protected] Preston, Eckersley, mgc@ a staggering dislocate with the - Since Brexit an increasing eckersleyproperty.co.uk - There Simon Adams, Kendal, Peill population at large. Seriously, feeling of “non-commitment”. A still remains a shortage of good & Company, simon@peill. they didn’t see this coming? couple of investment deals have quality industrial stock to buy in com - Generally positive trends Where have these people been fallen through. No immediate our area. There is an ongoing for the past 12-18 months. The living for the last decade? evidence of reduced values but viability gap on new office and Brexit vote could potentially we suspect some deals will falter industrial developments, though stall confidence, particularly in Simon Moon, Belfast, Karl Asset or renegotiation on price/rent will one or two developers have areas of the county which have Management, simon.moon@ be undertaken. had great success recently with benefitted from significant EU karl.co.uk - The vote to leave the small (sub 1000 sq. ft) hybrid B1 funds. EU has brought back uncertainty Brent Forbes Bsc MRICS, units for sale; take-up, capital to market place. As we are in Burnley, Petty Chartered and rental values for these have Northern Ireland a period of the unknown there Surveyors - Limited stock, exceeded expectations. Retail is a sense that investment some apprehension in the remains challenging and there Brian Nixon, Belfast, Whelan transactions will stagnate until market, values flat and a lack of is an oversupply of older office commercial, brian.nixon@ there is a clear sense of direction confidence. accommodation. Any fallout from whelan.co.uk - Brexit vote will on the economy. However, the Brexit has yet to filter through lead to uncertainty with potential positive is that demand for Grade Brian Ricketts MRICS, Liverpool, into transactional evidence. for reduced levels of investment. A office space in Belfast remains Hitchcock Wright & Partners strong which provides comfort to - Brexit decision is still a big Martin Walton, Tameside, Brian Turtle, Belfast, OKT, brian. developers. Student housing has unknown and market sentiment Waltons, mw@waltonsweb. [email protected] - I believe the brought a new ‘use class’ to the remains “anxious”. com - Until the Brexit vote market market is becoming increasingly city centre, new hotels are being was making steady progress cautious. Here in Northern erected and new prime retailers Charles Fifield, Cheshire, bar offices. It is too soon to tell Ireland we are not too long out are entering the High Street. Fifield Glyn, charles.fifield@ if secondary property will be of the long period of recession, Belfast is open for business. fifieldglyn.com - Enquiries seem affected by the vote and if so unlike some other areas of the to have slowed over recent by how much. All predictions UK where there is much more Stephen Dunlop, Belfast, Urban months. It is unclear whether in this survey might be subject buoyancy. Much will depend on Property Upside Ltd, contact@ this is because of the build up to considerable revision next the Brexit fallout going forward. urbanproperty.org.uk - Lack of to European referendum or a quarter. In conclusion, it looks like a few finance dominates the market - natural slowdown following a hard years ahead. time lag in securing planning a busy period. The aftermath of Mike Fisher, Lancaster, Fisher major downside to investment the vote could be delaying longer Wrathall, mike@fisherwrathall. Eric Spence, Belfast, and development. term business decisions such as co.uk - Last 3 weeks very quiet in [email protected] property moves and acquisitions. terms of occupier demand. - The result of the EU vote Tristan Aiken MRICS Mscsa, could have a major impact Belfast, Translink Co Ltd - UK’s Claire Caunce, Manchester, Mike Redshaw Ma (Cantab) on investment in Northern exit from EU likely to create Halfords, clairecaunce@hotmail. FRICS, Rochdale, Nolan Ireland and its relationship with increased uncertainty and co.uk - Fewer developments Redshaw, mike@nolanredshaw. European Commission and instability for Northern Ireland in taking place resulting in huge co.uk - There has been a general Republic of Ireland. the short/medium term. lack of supply of new builds and strengthening in enquiries across spec developments. the board, other than for retail Greg Vaughan, Belfast, MJM which is still subdued. Marine, g.vaughan@mjm-group. Daniel Harris, Manchester, com - Northern Ireland market Daniel Harris and Co, dh@ Mike Redshaw Ma (Cantab) was in early stages of recovery dh-property.co.uk - Due to FRICS, Bolton, Nolan Redshaw, until Brexit with strong signs of Brexit, it is very difficult to predict [email protected] increasing demand and bright anything. - There has been further future ahead. Brexit has changed strengthening in demand for that and it is difficult to see the industrial warehousing around positives presently. the region.

7 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Scotland Iain Steele FRICS, Farnham, Jeremy Braybrooke, Julian Scannell, Medway, Park Steele - Market continues Southampton, Osmond Watson Day Chartered Mark Crichton Maitland, to be active although run-up to Brookes, jeremy.braybrooke@ Surveyors, julianscannell@ Glasgow, EPIC, mark@ the referendum caused some osmondbrookes.co.uk - At the watsonday.com - The effect nethergatehouse.co.uk - slowing down. It is too early to time of writing, a week post of the result of the EU Uncertainty is never good for say what impact the result will Brexit, some of the panic has referendum will not become the markets, but stability should have on the future market. Need settled, stock market is back clear immediately. However, forthcoming. to stay positive. to where it was and there are we are aware of investment/ a few jobs going in Parliament. trading companies who have South East Ian B. Sloan FRICS, Banbury, The hysteria was expected but I taken the decision not to Bankier Sloan, reception@ predict it is a storm in a tea cup proceed with provisionally Alan Pickering, Winchester, centre-p.co.uk - The demand and life will go on in what is a agreed transactions. We Goadsby, allan.pickering@ for small industrial units fairly stable and benign market. expect a softening of demand goadsby.com – Brexit has remains good, with rent levels Most people seem more settled for the majority of classes of caused uncertainty but cash will in my opinion being at their over the past week and in the commercial property. If that does be key to freehold deals. highest ever due to a lack of longer term I see a bright future occur it is likely to translate into development of units under for retail property in this area, a reduction in rents and capital Andrew Archibald, Southampton, 10,000 square feet to meet the after the short downturn forecast values. We do have concerns Keygrove Chartered Surveyors, demands of expanding local 6 months ago. that the vote to leave the EU [email protected] - Brexit businesses. will cause uncertainty within the was unexpected by the market John Fowler C/O Jane Churchill manufacturing, services and and this will lead to uncertainty. Ian Brindley, Reading, Hempel Bsc Frics, Milton Keynes, transport/distribution sectors. If Uncertainty usually leads to Estates, ib@hempelestates. Lambert Smith Hampton, it does and investment decisions delayed decisions. Time will tell. com - Sentiment has clearly [email protected] - Brexit had are deferred, that is likely to been affected by the Brexit an effect on office requirements, have an adverse impact on the Charles Stevens MRICS BSc, vote. Commercial occupier many on hold. commercial property market Slough, Maple Burton LLP - demand (offices ) is still there within the south east of England. Immediate uncertainty following but decisions are likely to be John Mcguffog, Horsham, Brexit. Unique circumstances/ deferred for the next few months John L McGuffog FRICS Michael Walter, Epsom, Williams few indicators. until matters settle down. MCIArb Chartered Surveyor, Harlow Commercal, maw_whc@ Summer is likely to be quiet. [email protected] - outlook.com - Life goes on after Chris Ridge, Southampton, With pressure on property funds Brexit result has created market Brexit. London Clancy, chrisridge@ we could see increased sales uncertainty creating a significant londonclancy.co.uk - We expect to raise capital. Not a good transaction slow down. Nick Berrill, Botley, Savills - lower levels of transactional time to be selling but they may Office take up has increased business over the next 3-6 have no choice. For existing Jonathan Mack, Horsham, West when compared to the first 6 months due to uncertainty over fund investors asking for their Sussex, Crickmay Chartered months of 2015, principally due Brexit. This will apply to both money back they will be creating Surveyors, [email protected] to 2 larger lettings, one being a occupier and investment sectors. the scenario they are worried - There has been a notable pre-let. about. This could be a windfall decrease in the number of Colin Brades, Brighton & Hove, for overseas investors with leasehold office enquiries in Phil Eggerdon, Weybridge, Cluttons LLP, colin.brades@ favourable exchange rates to buy the lead up to and following Surrey and Surrounding Area, cluttons.com - Brighton: May stock for the medium / longer the EU Referendum. This is Eggerdon & Holland Ltd, phil@ and June were good months for term for when sterling improves. expected to lead to lengthier void eggerdon-holland.co.uk - As I the retail sector in Brighton, with Investors / developers who are periods and perhaps increased complete this survey, the UK continued good trade particularly not over exposed may also incentives having to be made has voted to leave the EU. It in the fashion industry, plus see this as a selective buying available. In the meantime co-incides with the summer demand and rental levels opportunity. freehold vacant possession and recess, so it’s hard to assess showing a slight improvement. investment enquiries across the the impact on transaction levels Future city tourism will be James Waghorn FRICS FCIARB, sectors seem to have remained which I suspect will be known boosted by the arrival of i360 and Maidstone, Martine Waghorn unchanged. by Q3/4. There is a lack of Brighton Zip attractions. Chartered Surveyors, jaw@ supply in my local market which martinewaghorn.co.uk - The perhaps will mask the true David Martin, Brighton & Hove, second quarter was pretty stable sentiment. I guess businesses Stiles Harold Williams, dmartin@ despite the overly long run-up to that have to move will take on shw.co.uk - Industrial market the EU referendum dominating new space; others will pause quietened the week after the the news. Occupier demand until we know what the new referendum and the uncertainty has been generally steady, with prime minister and government has led to the loss of a couple industrial leading the way and policy is to be (plus the contents of transactions. Still too early to the supply side remaining tight. of the autumn statement). The tell what the impact will be as investment market I fear will be companies are treading warily affected as we see the big funds in terms of property decisions. frozen but this may throw open However, rents in the short term opportunities for smaller property are likely to remain at the same companies. level due to the shortage of stock.

8 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2016: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Richard Waple, Guildford, Stuart King Bsc MRICS, Ian Smith, Bristol, Valuation Simon J Pontifex FRICS, Lovelace Homes, richardwaple@ Letchworth Garden City, Davies Office, ianandpennysmith@ Cheltenham, S P A (Chartered outlook.com - Confidence low King Chartered Surveyors, yahoo.c o.uk - The effect of Surveyors) - Brexit has caused prior to EU referendum reflected [email protected] - The the referendum outcome looks uncertainty both in the period in less transactional activity vote to leave the EU will alter the like making a serious impact leading up to the vote and and greater requirement for way some markets react. on commercial properties, during the current week after the purchasers to obtain fair or good particularly prime property in decision. Inevitably there is going value for money. Referendum Tom Holloway, Portsmouth, big cities as rental growth is to be reduced market activity but decision unexpected as was the Holloway Iliffe & Mitchell, tom@ threatened and big businesses hopefully short lived. A good time Prime Minister standing down. hi-m.co.uk - The market in looks to move out of the UK. to be active. The lack of Brexit preparation general has now been thrown for success coupled with into uncertainty with the recent Ifan Rhys-Jones, Plymouth, Simon Morgan, Bristol, Conservative and Labour party Brexit vote to leave the EU. This Listers, [email protected] Chelverton Developments Ltd, turmoil has caused uncertainty may pave the way for cash rich - Impact of Brexit unknown. simonm@chelverton-bristol. and volatility in the markets. investors and developers to Uncertainty usually has a co.uk - Post Brexit gloom in This is a political crisis not an pounce on opportunities. negative impact. Lower interest occupier and funding markets for economic or financial crisis and it rates can help property as an large format non-food retail. is hoped that one year into Brexit South West asset. confidence will return and the Simon Walsham, Bournemouth, markets will be calmer. Certain Adrian Rowley, Gloucester, Michael T Ripley, Weston-Super- Poole And Christchurch, James sales markets have almost ALder King, arowley@alderking. Mare, Stephen & Co, michael@ and Sons, simonwalsham@ disappeared due to uncertainty com - It is perhaps too soon after stephenand.co.uk - Market jamesandsons.co.uk - No and Stamp Duty and tax the EU referendum to determine uncertainty inevitable due to evidence of market downturn changes to the buy-to-let sector the short, medium and long term Brexit. Enquiries reduced and following referendum, principally has deterred investor confidence. effect on the market. Currently tendency to be more cautious driven by lack of supply. there continues to be occupier - likely short to mid-term trends Russell Mogridge MRICS, activity at values consistent with are downwards. Tim Wright, Yeovil, RMW Knight, Southampton, Hughes Ellard pre-referendum levels. [email protected] - The - Severe shortage of industrial Mike Oldrieve, Exeter, commercial property market space. Severe shortage of Grade Alistair Edgcumbe, Taunton, Vickery Holman, moldrieve@ remains fairly stable. The level A offices in city centre. Larkman Edgcumbe, ae@ vickeryholman.com - Expecting of enquiries is still good and the larkmanedgcumbe.co.uk - Brexit the market to stall following Brexit vote does not appear to Russell Mogridge MRICS, and summer holidays have Brexit while everyone works out have had a detrimental effect. Portsmouth, Hughes Ellard - Still caused a slowdown in activity. what is going on. Will be the New a desire to relocate into smart We expect things to pick up once Year before we have any chance Wales single floor office space with the government has sorted itself of moving forward. good car parking: Lakeside out and the holiday season ends. Chris Sutton, Cardiff, JLL, chris. Portsmouth will complete its The underlying fundamentals Paul Bennett, Exeter, sutton@eu.jll.com - Following the £10m spec investment on remain sound. Ravenslade, pbennett@ Brexit vote, there is likely to be 120,000 sq ft. ravenslade.co.uk - There are an initial correction to property Andrew Hosking Bsc MRICS, many projects on the planning markets. However, this should Shaun Walters Bsc MRICS, Torbay, Stratton Creber board which will filter through to be followed by an upturn as Reading, Parkinson Holt - Commercial - Occupier demand the construction market in the opportunities re-emerge and Following the news of Brexit the continues in spite of the recent next 6-12 months. the benefit of weak sterling for market is now very uncertain in Brexit vote although the effects our exporters is recognised. the short term. This will stabilise on the property market remain to Paul Whitmarsh MRICS, The impact on rents of reduced and settle down and Britain will be seen. Swindon, Whitmarsh Lockhart, occupier demand may be still prove attractive to foreign paul@whitmarshlockhart. limited by tight supply. However, investors. Andrew Hosking Bsc MRICS, com - Some post Brexit nerves activity will be adversely hit Barnstaple, Stratton Creber are being displayed by values. whilst uncertainty about political Stephen A Richmond BSc Commercial - Uncertainty A few buyers using the vote direction and timing continues. MRICS, Maidstone, Altus - This over Brexit has yet to be as an excuse to “chip”. Most is the first survey post Brexit. It demonstrated in the local transactions are proceeding as David Cochlin, Carmarthen, remains to be seen what impact commercial property market. normal. John Francis, dc@johnfrancis. this has on the commercial co.uk - The market was quieter in property market. The expectation Andrew Hosking Bsc MRICS, Peter Luff, Exeter, Lambert the run up to the EU referendum is that we are likely to see a Exeter, Stratton Creber Smith Hampton, pluff@lsh. and there has been a noticeable period of uncertainty which will Commercial - Post Brexit co.uk - We are at the early stage fall in enquiries since the result be reflected in less transactional demand is still strong for of uncertainty following the was known. activity particularly in the prime properties with an acute referendum. History suggests investment market. shortage of stock across all that this uncertainty will continue sectors. until purchasers are satisfied Steve Griffin BSc FRICS, market falls are at an end. Wokingham, Pennicott Chartered Experience suggests this may be Surveyors, surveys@pennicott. some way away and will follow com - Strong demand for retail in sustained economic growth in a Wokingham town centre. post Brexit environment.

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Gareth Williams FRICS, North Richard Baddeley, North Wales Graham Jones, Lichfield, Simon Beedles, Shrewsbury/ Wales, BA Commercial Gareth Region, Richard Baddeley & Kingston CPC, graham.jones@ Telford, Barbers, s.beedles@ Williams - The true impact of Company, rrbaddeley@hotmail. kingstoncpc.co.uk - There barbers-online.co.uk - There has “Brexit” cannot be predicted com - There will be significant appeared to be a slight cooling been little change in the past with any confidence at this early changes to the market within off and some hesitation before 3 months. Deals are still being junction - certainly the steam Wales as a result of Brexit and the EU referendum and we done as the commercial property went out of the market in the re-negotiation of the Barnett will have to wait and see market needs to keep moving but last quarter and for the next six formula will be critical to ongoing whether this continues and/ they are at low levels and they months at least I expect caution infrastructure projects. However, or increases following the take an age to complete. The will remain the order of the day. this may lead to better auditing of exit vote. However, there still market seems to have gone quiet spending and better placement remains a relative shortage of in the past couple of weeks while Gary Carver, Cardiff, Savills, of funding across the region to available accommodation within everyone waits to see what is [email protected] - Very encourage meaningful growth. the industrial and office market happing regarding the EU. strong demand for grade A particularly modern premises offices and good level of pre- Richard Ryan BSc (hons) and freehold opportunities with Steven Haddock, Birmingham, lets are in the pipeline. Post FRICS, Cardiff, Fletcher Morgan, strong demand. Prologis UK Ltd, shaddock@ Brexit there is some evidence of Richard.ryan@fletchermorgan. prologis.com - The demand for nervousness and standing back co.uk – Industrial and office Jonathan Moore MRICS, Grade A Industrial property in to let the ‘dust settle’. occupiers becoming more Coventry, Shortland Penn + good locations has continued cautious due to the Brexit vote. Moore - Occupier activity is down to be robust over the last 18 Jason Thorne, Swansea, BSC Investment enquiries have in Coventry. Friargate seems months. Before Brexit, we saw MRICS - The first six months of fallen with investors pausing to have stalled. Coventry Univ. occupier remaining still strong 2016 have been difficult due to while market conditions become Tech Park ‘NTDC’ building under and concluded a number of lease external influences such as the clearer. construction. transactions on large industrial Welsh Assembly elections, the properties in the month of June. referendum and the problems Robert Ladd MRICS, Cardiff, Michael David Jones FRICS, with Tata Steel at Port Talbot. DTZ - We are entering a Herefordshire, Michael D Jones Yorkshire & Humberside This seemed to only effect period of great uncertainty. LTD., [email protected] - smaller businesses, with medium Manufacturers remain positive Demand is still good in the rural Andrew Clark Bsc FRICS, size companies retaining but are likely to retain cash rather Herefordshire small towns in Kingston Upon Hull, Clark confidence to grow and take than invest. which I operate to purchase Weightman, andrewclark@ on extra commercial property. mixed use retail/residential clarkweightman.co.uk - We saw It was anticipated that these West Midlands premises. Demand weak for enquiry levels fall significantly in issues would only affect the first standalone retail, particularly the run up to the EU referendum. half of 2016, with transactions Andrew Hall, Birmingham, secondary premises. Demand As a result of the Brexit vote being back end loaded after the CrowdProperty Ltd, andrew. remains poor for office space and the political instability in the summer months. ‘Brexit’ has [email protected] - The particularly secondary offices, immediate aftermath, occupiers potentially killed the hope of fallout from Brexit makes it except where redevelopment into and investors are being major growth in the second half difficult to see what will happen residential space/apartments etc understandably cautious and as of the year. However, at the time in the short term. Long term, as is involved. a result we expect a stagnant of writing this article there are markets settle down, I expect we market over the next quarter. already signs that companies will be able to deal with the UK Peter Holt, Coventry, D&P Holt are getting on with business as accepting new rules and pushing Limited, peter@holtcommercial. Barry Crux, York, Barry Crux usual. on. co.uk - Market demand and and Company, barry@barrycrux. conditions remain stable and co.uk - The year has been Michael Bruce MRICS, Cardiff, Anthony Rowland FRICS, positive. Brexit has so far not generally disappointing in DLP Surveyors, michael@ Evesham, Timothy Lea & changed much as we are in mid- terms of transactional activity dlpsurveyors.co.uk - Like Griffiths, tony.rowland@tlgea. upturn. The south east was at a but inexplicably so. The Brexit elsewhere in the UK there com - Property market is peak so may see a downward decision has recently added is likely to be an element of uncertain, and very clearly tied adjustment. to the problem with limited shorter term uncertainty in the to credit availability. A good enquiries now flowing and a commercial property sector cooperative building sector will Richard Mumford, Worcester, sense of confusion abounding. following the Brexit referendum help aid economic recovery Arthur Giffiths and Mumford, Predicting future trends result. However, early indications dramatically following the Brexit richard.mumford@agmfarm. and expectations is all but in South Wales are that many vote. co.uk - Very difficult conditions. impossible. There are some SME’s appear positive following bright aspects - York continues to the result which will hopefully Robert Champion MRICS, receive attention from A3 and A4 have a medium to long term Worcester, Halls (Worcester) operators, which has been the positive impact on occupier LLP - In general supply/demand case now for several years, and demand and future growth. dynamics of the market remain this demand is soaking up vacant unchanged despite the Brexit retail space which is not taken by result. It is too early to see how retailers. Rents are subsequently this vote will impact the market showing quite strong upward but we remain confident that the movement. The office sector underlying fundamentals are remains dull. strong.

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Carl Wright, Leeds, Jack Lunn (Properties) Ltd, carl.wright@ jacklunn.co.uk - The budget Stamp Duty change coupled with the Brexit vote will reduce market activity in the short term. The stamp duty change was a big hit to commercial property values and then Brexit is the double whammy.

Graeme Haigh MRICS, Huddersfield, Bramleys LLP - The recovery in the market is well underway fuelled by resumed confidence in the sector and wider economy and helped by easing credit restrictions. However, the uncertainty over the result of the EU referendum is likely to weigh heavy on the market in the new few months.

John Reeves, York, Reeves and Co, john-reeves@helmsley. co.uk - Brexit has caused some uncertainty but we don’t expect major changes up in the North.

Matthew Edwards, Leeds, Ryden, matthew.edwards@ ryden.co.uk - There is obvious uncertainty in the market post Brexit vote , with a quieter investment market , albeit occupational demand (particularly industrial) appears to remain strong at this point.

Michael Stuart Westlake FRICS, Skipton, Westlake & Co. - For whatever reason (if any) the people of the UK have decided to gamble on our future which is certain to impact on confidence and the property market does not thrive on uncertainty.

Richard Corby MRICS, Leeds, Lambert Smith Hampton, [email protected] - The Brexit outcome has slowed decision making, bringing a hiatus to the market. Some purchasers are chipping their offers as blatant opportunism, whilst others are waiting to see if the property can be acquired for less in a couple of months.

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East Midlands Gavin Wood, Eastern, Network Sven Topel, Cambridge, Gary Mcnamara, London, Arca Rail, gavin.wood@networkrail. Brookgate, sven.topel@ PRM, gmcnamara@arcaprm. Alastair Fearn, Nottingham, FHP, co.uk brookgate.eu com [email protected] Joe Reubin, Chelmsford, Tom Nichols, Cambridge, Gavin Hindley, London, GPL, Ben Coleman BSc FRICS, Lambert Smith Hampton, Everard Cole, tom@everardcole. [email protected] Northampton, Ben Coleman [email protected] co.uk Associates Geoffrey Shaw, London, Janson Julian Haywood Smith, London Capital, [email protected] Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, Colchester, Whybrow Kettering / Daventry / Chartered Surveyors, julian. Alastair Chapman, London, Graham Rossall, London, HMC, Northampton, Abbey Ross [email protected] Matthews & Goodman LLP, [email protected] Chartered Surveyors achapman@matthews- Martin Day, Norwich, Martin Day goodman.co.uk Helen Shellabear, London, Duncan Woods, Northampton, Chartered Surveyors, martin@ Hudson Advisors UK, Harwoods, duncan@ martindaycs.co.uk Andrew Farquhar, London, hshellabear@hudson-advisors. harwoodsproperty.co.uk Masons Property Advisers City, com Michael Summers, Cambridge, [email protected] Gilbert Harvey, Northampton, Howard Group, m.summers@ Hugh Tippett, London, Budworth Hardcastle, gharvey@ howard-ventures.com Andrew Whitaker, London, Farebrother, htippett@ budworthhardcastle.com Central and Southern Real farebrother.com Mike Phoenix BSc MRICS, Estate, [email protected] Giles Davis, Nottingham, Stevenage, Brown & Lee, mike. Iain Guest, London, iguest@ Geo Hallam & Sons, giles@ [email protected] Aston Byrne, London, The queensberryrealestate.com geohallam.co.uk Portman Estate, aston.byrne@ Neil Turvey, Ipswich, Bacton portmanestate.co.uk Ian Sneller, London, Sneller John A Smith, Spalding, R Asset Management Limited, Commercial, [email protected] Longstaff & Co, jas@longstaff. [email protected] Beverley Hedge BSc MRICS, com Islington, Currell Commerical, Ian Wimpenny, London, Nick Denny, Ipswich, East of [email protected] Altus Group, ian.wimpenny@ Jonathan Hubbard, Leicester, England Co-op, n.denny@ altusgroup.com Ward Surveyors Ltd, jhubbard@ eastofengland.coop Charles Ostroumoff, London, wardsurveyors.co.uk Arca Property Risk Management, Jimmy Bell, London, Ashwell Nick Haywood MRICS, Harlow, [email protected] Rogers, jimmybell@ Kevin ,Hopkinson, Derby, CPRE, Sbh Page Read, nick.haywood@ ashwellrogers.com [email protected] sbhpageread.co.uk Chris Burrows, London, Talbot Scott, [email protected] John Wittebolle, London, John Mark Simpson, Leicester, Sturgis Philip Woolner, Cambridge, Wittebolle Chartered Surveyors, Snow and Astill Cheffins, philip.woolner@ Christina Weguelin, London, [email protected] cheffins.co.uk Cushman & Wakefield, christina. Nigel Carnall, Mansfield Oop, [email protected] Joseph Grimes, London, Inditex, W.A.Barnes LLP, njbc@ Robert Alston BSc MRICS, [email protected] wabarnes.co.uk Cambridge, Robert Alston Ltd, Colin Goodwin, London, Colin [email protected] Goodwin Consulting, colin. Keith Whale, London, KW Robbie Farrell, Nottingham, [email protected] Advisory Ltd, keith@kwadvisory. Lambert Smith Hampton, Robert Flint, Norwich, Arnolds co.uk [email protected] Keys, robert.flint@arnoldskeys. Craig Hinvest, London, Matthews com & Goodman, chinvest@ Kevin Burke FRICS, South Stephen Smith, Northampton, matthews-goodman.co.uk London, Frederick Holt & Neil Mason Associates, steve@ Roger Chisnall, Harpenden, Company, . neilmasonassociates.co.uk Safehands Projects Limited, Daniel Kerr, London, Paragon [email protected] QS lTD, danny716@btinternet. Kevin Kemplen, London, Kinney Tim Garratt, Nottingham, Innes com Green, k.kemplen@kinneygreen. England, tgarratt@innes- Sam Kingston, Norwich, Roche com england.com Chartered Surveyors, sam. David Roberts, London, GCS [email protected] Limited, [email protected] Kim White BSc MRICS, City - C, Eastern Kinney Green Stephen A Richmond BSc Ed Hiller, London, Hiller & Alan Matthews, Huntingdon, MRICS, Thurrock / Barking & Partners, ed.hiller@btconnect. Louisa, London, Nash Bond, Barker Storey Matthews, arm@ Dagenham, Altus com [email protected] bsm.uk.com Stephen Hursthouse, Edward Rothery, London, Malcolm Brackley, London, Adrian Fennell, Norwich, Roche, Cambridge, Red Fox Real Colliers International, edward. Farebrother, mbrackley@ adrian.fennell@rochesurveyors. Estate, [email protected] [email protected] farebrother.com co.uk Stuart T King MRICS, Gareth Williams, London, Mark Cherry, London, GAM Andrew Bastin, Norwich, Letchworth / North Hertfordshire, Rushton, Gareth.williams@ International Management Ltd, Bastin Commercial, andrew@ Davies King rushton.co.uk [email protected] bastincommercial.co.uk

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Mark Wills-Williams, London, M Rob Riley, London, East Erin Forrest, Newcastle upon Paul Mcateer, Newcastle upon Squared, mark.willswilliams@ Lodge Capital, rob.riley@ Tyne, Hanro Limited, erin. Tyne, [email protected] googlemail.com eastlodgecapital.com [email protected] Peter Blackett, Newcastle upon Martin Taylor, London, martint@ Rob West, London, Clearbell Felicity Fairless, Newcastle upon Tyne, Davison Blackett Ltd, waitrose.com Capital LLP, [email protected] Tyne, PG&A Property Limited, [email protected] [email protected] Matthew Gurney, London, Rupert Williams, London, GMRE, Richard Bullen, Newcastle upon Independent Consultant, [email protected] Gavin Black, Newcastle upon Tyne, C&W, richard.bullen@ [email protected] Tyne, Gavin Black and Partners, cushwake.com Russell Walker, London, gavin@ gavin black.co.uk Michael Perlin, London, Michael Jamieson Mills, rjw@ Sharon Moon, Newcastle upon Perlin & C0, msp@michaelperlin. jamiesonmills.com Ian Blackett, Newcastle upon Tyne, Knight Frank, sharon. com Tyne, ianblackett@btconnect. [email protected] Simon Barratt, London, JD com Mike Bell, London, The Wetherspoon plc, Sbarratt@ Simon Fraser, Stockton-On- Crown Estate, michael.bell@ jdwetherspoon.co.uk Ian Thurlbeck, Newcastle, Tees, Stockton-on-Tees Borough thecrownestate.co.uk Atretail, [email protected] Council, simon.fraser@stockton. Stephen A Richmond BSc gov.uk Mike Riley, Burton upon Trent, MRICS, Bexley / Woolwich / John Craig, Newcastle upon Waypoint Asset Management, Bromley, Altus Tyne, Sanderson Weatherall, Simon Herring, Newcastle upon [email protected] [email protected] Tyne, Homes & Communities Stuart Beevor, London, Beevor Agenct, [email protected]. Murray Smith, London, Dunphys, Consulting Ltd, stuart.beevor@ Jonathan Weastell, Newcastle gov.uk murray.smith’dunphys.co.uk yahoo.co.uk upon Tyne, Robertson Simpson, [email protected] Simon Taylor MRICS, Newcastle N Walker, London, C&W, nichola. Tim Gauld, London, Bonsors, upon Tyne, Naylors Chartered [email protected] [email protected] Julie Wallin, Darlington, Surveyors Carver Commercial Chartered Neil Cadwallader, London, Neil Will Staniland, London, Surveyors, juliew@carvergroup. Steven Cole, Newcastle Cadwallader, neilcad@yahoo. Rumsey and Partners, will@ co.uk upon Tyne, Lexicon Cole Ltd, co.uk rumseyandpartners.co.uk [email protected] Malcolm G Holmes, Sunderland, Neil Hinds, London, F.Hinds Ltd, North East ABP Property Consultants, Timothy Duff, Newcastle upon [email protected] [email protected] Tyne, Lambert Smith Hampton, Nick Crass, Teesside, Crass & [email protected] Nicholas Lawson, London, Co. Chartered Surveyors, nick. Mark Cottam, Durham, Cottam Soho Estates, nicklawson@ [email protected] and Co., mark@cottamandco. North West sohoestates.co.uk com Barry Nelson, Newcastle upon Antony Hill, Southport, Antony Nigel Best, London, Capita, Tyne, Whittle Jones, bnelson@ Mark Dawson, Newcastle, White Hill Group [email protected] whittlejones.co.uk Horse Surveyors, Markdawson@ whitehorsesurveyors.co.uk Brent Forbes BSc MRICS, Paul Sulma, London, Wiggins Bill Lynn BSc (Hons) FRICS, Preston / Burnley, Petty Lockett Thompson, psulma@ Northumberland / Durham / Tyne Michael Richardson, Newcastle chartered surveyors, b.forbes@ wltsurveyors.co.uk and Wear, Storeys - SSP upon Tyne, Michael Richardson petty.co.uk & Partners, M.richardson@ Paul Warner, London, London Chris Dent, Newcastle, Cushman mrpsurveyors.co.uk Brian Ricketts MRICS, Liverpool, Borough of Southwark, paul. & Wakefield, chris.dent@ Hitchcock Wright & Partners [email protected] cushwake.com Neil Thomas, Middlesbrough, Thomas : Stevenson, Neil@ Charles Fifield, Cheshire, Fifield Peter Friend, London, HNF Colin Vance, Sunderland, thomas-stevenson.co.uk Glyn, charles.fifield@fifieldglyn. Property, [email protected] Sunderland City Council, com [email protected] Nicola Moore, Leeds, Jack Lunn Philip Walker, London, Philip (Properties) Ltd, nikki.moore@ Chris Brown-Bolton, Chester, Walker Consulting Limited, Colin Webster, Newcastle upon jacklunn.co.uk Chris Brown-Bolton Associates, [email protected] Tyne, CVS UK, colinwebster@ [email protected] cvsuk.com Oliver Ridley, Newcastle upon Philip Waterfield, London, Tyne, Cushman & Wakefield, Chris Draper, Manchester, Metis Strettons, philip.waterfield@ Danny Cramman, Newcastle, [email protected] Real Estate Advisors, cdraper@ strettons.co.uk Bilfinger GVA, danny.cramman@ metisrealestate.com gva.co.uk Paul Barrow, Teeside, Thirteen Richard F Sanders, London, Group, [email protected] Claire Caunce, Manchester, Sanders Laing, rfsanders@ David Jackson, Darlington, Halfords, clairecaunce@hotmail. sanders-laing.co.uk Jackson & Partners, david@ Paul Green, Newcastle upon co.uk jackson-partners.co.uk Tyne, WYG, paul.green@wyg. Richard Grillo, Greater London, com Daniel Harris, Manchester, Grillo Europe Limited, dg@ Duncan Mcgregor, Newcastle Daniel Harris and Co, dh@dh- grilloeurope.com upon Tyne, Melbury Property, property.co.uk [email protected]

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David Mather, Manchester, Paul Marshall MRICS, Oldham / Danielle Hanvey, Belfast, Scotland Protector Lamp Pension Rochdale, Bolton Marshall Causeway, daniellehanvey@ Scheme, dmather@ causewayassetmanagement. Alan Aitkenhead, Glasgow, protectorlamp.com Paul Nolan BSc (Hons) FRICS, com Scottish Power, alan. Bury / Oldham, Nolan Redshaw [email protected] David Porter BSc (Hons) MRICS, Eric Spence, Belfast, Manchester, Knight Frank Paula Blellock, Runcorn, [email protected] Alan Esson, Aberdeen, Halton Borough Council, paula. Springfield Real Estate David Street, Liverpool, Sefton [email protected] Gerard Kelly, Newry, Best Management, alan@sremltd. MBC, david.street1@sefton. Property Services, gerard@ co.uk gov.uk Peter Hardy, Manchester, Berrys, bestpropertyservices.com [email protected] Alasdair Rankin, Edinburgh, Fife Duncan Young, Penrith, Graeme Johnston, Belfast, Council, alasdair.rankin@fife. Mere Commercial, info@ Phil Spark, Manchester, Belfast Harbour, g.johnston@ gov.uk merecommercial.co.uk Strategic Propert Management, belfast-harbour.co.uk [email protected] Alexander Robb, Aberdeen, A B Giuseppe Assalone, Preston, Greg Vaughan, Belfast, MJM Robb LTD, [email protected] Robert Pinkus and Co LLP, joe@ Philip Cridge, National, InfraRed, Marine, g.vaughan@mjm-group. pinkus.co.uk [email protected] com Andrew Cartmail, Edinburgh, BNP Paribas Real Estate, Graham Coates, Llandudno, Richard Howe, Cheshire, Assura, Henry Taggart MRICS, andrew.cartmail@bnpparibas. Countrywide, Pepagria@yahoo. [email protected] Coleraine, O’Connor Kennedy com com Turtle Rob Tilley, Manchester, p3 Angela Graham, Kilmarnock, John Ogden MRICS, property, [email protected] James Fitzpatrick, Belfast, East Ayrshire Council, angela. Manchester, CB Richard Ellis Ltd Henderson Group, Jamese. [email protected] Robert Goodall, Manchester, Fitzpatrick@henderson-group. Jonathan Mills, Manchester, Goodall Investments Ltd, rob@ com Colette Brough, Glasgow, WBF, Metis Real Estate Advisors Ltd, goodallinvestments.co.uk [email protected] jmills@metisrealestate Jeffrey Millar-Wilson, Ballymena, Russell Hall, Manchester, Watt Surveying, Jeffrey@ Donald Groves, Dundee, Kevin Wideman, Manchester, Woodward Hall, russell@ wattsurveying.co.uk Tayside Valuation Joint Board, Capita, kevin.wideman@capita. woodwardhall.co.uk [email protected]. co.uk John Coyle, Belfast, Osborne uk Simon Adams, Kendal, Peill & King, john.coyle@osborneking. Leah Taylor, Manchester, Company, [email protected] com Graham Greig, Kirkcaldy, Lambert Smith Hamptom, Assessor, graham.greig@fife. [email protected] Simon Guest, Birkenhead, Smith Louise Strange, Belfast, Lambert gov.uk & Sons Smith Hampton, [email protected] Mark Diaper, Chester, Legat Iain Baikie, Edinburgh, Baikie & Owen, Markdiaper@legatowen. Simon Irving, Manchester, Lynn Taylor, Belfast, Lisney, Company, [email protected] co.uk [email protected] [email protected] Jim Gordon, Glasgow, Debra, Martin Connolly BSc FRICS, Simon Isherwood, Manchester, Patrick Gallagher, Derry, LPS, Gordonsilverbirch@googlemail. Preston, Eckersley, mgc@ Sidev Ltd, [email protected] patrick.gallagher@finance-ni. com eckersleyproperty.co.uk gov.uk Stephen Sewell, Carlisle, Walton John Burke, Glasgow, Martin Walton, Tameside, Goodland Ltd, stephen@ Patrick Hanna, Dromore, [email protected] Waltons, [email protected] waltongoodland.com Property Partners More Ltd., propertypartners@btconnect. Jonathan Reid, Dundee, J & E Matt Illingworth, Manchester, Steve Brittle, Manchester, com Shepherd, j.reid@shepherd. Hynes Illingworth, matt@ Matthews & Goodman, sbrittle@ co.uk hynesillingworth.com matthews-goodman.co.uk Sean Boyle, Belfast, GVA NI, [email protected] Mark Crichton Maitland, Mike Budd, Chester, Self Stewart Brown, Warrington, Glasgow, EPIC, mark@ Employed, matthew@buddm. Warrington BC, s_brown@ Simon Moon, Belfast, Karl Asset nethergatehouse.co.uk fsnet.co.uk warrington.gov.uk Management, simon.moon@ karl.co.uk Matthew Moggach, Aberdeen, Mike Fisher, Lancaster, Fisher Northern Ireland Ryden, matthew.moggach@ Wrathall, mike@fisherwrathall. Stephen Dunlop, Belfast, Urban ryden.co.uk co.uk Anthony Best, Belfast, Lacuna Property Upside Ltd, contact@ Developments, Anthony@ urbanproperty.org.uk Nigel Law, Edinburgh, Montagu Mike Redshaw Ma (Cantab) lacunadevelopmenta.com Evans LLP, nigel.law@montagu- FRICS, Rochdale / Bolton / Tristan Aiken MRICS MSCSA, evans.co.uk Wigan, Nolan Redshaw, mike@ Brian Nixon, Belfast, Whelan Belfast, Translink Co Ltd nolanredshaw.co.uk commercial, brian.nixon@ Roddy Elliott, Edinburgh, RBS, whelan.co.uk [email protected]

Brian Turtle, Belfast, OKT, brian. [email protected]

Contributor details

Russell Shiels, Aberdeen, Ian B. Sloan FRICS, Banbury, Richard Aitken, South East Colin Scragg, Bath, Carter Aberdeenshire Council, russell. Bankier Sloan, reception@ Region, Aitken Retail, richard@ Jonas, colin.scragg@ [email protected],uk centre-p.co.uk aitkenretail.co.uk carterjonas.co.uk

South East Ian Bell, Winchester, Pearsons Richard Newswam, Weybridge, David Cowling, Bournemouth Commercial, ian.bell@pearsons. Curchod & Co LLP, rnewsam@ and Poole, Cowling & West, Adrian Dolan MRICS, High com curchodandco.com [email protected] Wycombe, Duncan & Bailey- Kennedy Ian Brindley, Reading, Hempel Richard Waple, Guildford, Ian Smith, Bristol, Valuation Estates, [email protected] Lovelace Homes, richardwaple@ Office, ianandpennysmith@ Amy Baker, Southampton, outlook.com yahoo.c o.uk Goadsby, amy.baker@goadsby. James Clay, Basingstoke, com London Clancy, jamesclay@ Roger Duncombe, South Ifan Rhys-Jones, Plymouth, londonclancy.co.uk East Region, Self employed, Listers, [email protected] Andrew Archibald, Southampton, [email protected] Keygrove Chartered Surveyors, James Waghorn FRICS Fciarb, Lloyd Smale, Exeter, Drew [email protected] Maidstone, Martine Waghorn Russell Mogridge MRICS, Pearce, [email protected] Chartered Surveyors, jaw@ Southampton / Portsmouth, B R Pickett MRICS, Basingstoke martinewaghorn.co.uk Hughes Ellard Martin Booth, Bristol, Knight Hampshire, Baker Davidson Frank, martin.booth@ Thomas, brian.pickett@bdt. Jeremy Braybrooke, Shaun Walters BSc MRICS, knightfrank.com uk.com Southampton, Osmond Reading, Parkinson Holt Brookes, jeremy.braybrooke@ Michael T Ripley, Weston-Super- Carla Donohue, Kent, Caxtons, osmondbrookes.co.uk Stephen A Richmond BSc Mare, Stephen & Co, michael@ [email protected] MRICS, Maidstone / Dartford / stephenand.co.uk John Fowler C/O Jane Churchill Seveoaks / Crayford, Altus Charles Stevens MRICS BSc, BSc FRICS, Milton Keynes, Mike Oldrieve, Exeter, Slough, Maple Burton LLP Lambert Smith Hampton, Stephen Laker, Crawley, Lakers Vickery Holman, moldrieve@ [email protected] LLP, [email protected] vickeryholman.com Chris Ridge, Southampton, London Clancy, chrisridge@ John Mcguffog, Horsham, Steve Griffin BSc FRICS, Paul Bennett, Exeter, londonclancy.co.uk John L McGuffog FRICS Wokingham, Pennicott Chartered Ravenslade, pbennett@ MCIArb Chartered Surveyor, Surveyors, surveys@pennicott. ravenslade.co.uk Colin Brades, Brighton & Hove, [email protected] com Cluttons LLP, colin.brades@ Paul Maguire, Cheltenham, cluttons.com Jonathan Mack, Horsham, West Stuart Jerden, Canterbury, John Ryde Commercial, Sussex, Crickmay Chartered Pearson Gore, stuart.jerden@ [email protected] Colin Greenstreet+, Folkestone, Surveyors, [email protected] pearsongore.co.uk Fell Reynolds, commercial@ Paul Whitmarsh MRICS, fellreynolds.com Julian Scannell, Medway, Stuart King BSc MRICS, Swindon, Whitmarsh Lockhart, Watson Day Chartered Letchworth Garden City, Davies [email protected] D Thomas, Medway, Harrisons Surveyors, julianscannell@ King Chartered Surveyors, Chartered Surveyors, watsonday.com [email protected] Peter Luff, Exeter, Lambert Smith DThomas@harrisons-surveyors. Hampton, [email protected] com Ken Glendinning, Surrey Tom Holloway, Portsmouth, and Sussex, Homes and Holloway Iliffe & Mitchell, tom@ Simon Greenslade BSc David Martin, Brighton and Hove, Communities Agency, ken. hi-m.co.uk MRICS, Exeter, Stratton Creber Stiles Harold Williams, dmartin@ [email protected] Commercial shw.co.uk William Hinckley, Canterbury, Michael Walter, Epsom, Williams BTF Partnership, william. Simon J Pontifex FRICS, Derek Brace, Luton, Harlow Commercal, maw_whc@ [email protected] Cheltenham, S P A (Chartered Chamberlain Holdings Plc, outlook.com Surveyors) [email protected] South West Nick Berrill, Botley, Savills Simon Mckeag, Gloucester, ASH Emma Byrne, Colchester, MRA, Adrian Rowley, Gloucester, Chartered Surveyors, sjm@ [email protected] Nick Bradbeer, Brighton, Stiles ALder King, arowley@alderking. ashproperty.co.uk Harold Williams, nbradbeer@ com Graham Jacobs, Portsmouth, shw.co.uk Simon Morgan, Bristol, Trafalgar Property Alistair Edgcumbe, Taunton, Chelverton Developments Ltd, Consultancy, graham@ Peter Atkinson, Woking, larkman edgcumbe, ae@ simonm@chelverton-bristol. trafalgarpropertyconsultancy. Wadham and Isherwood, pja@ larkmanedgcumbe.co.uk co.uk co.uk wandimanagement.co.uk Andrew Hosking BSc MRICS, Simon Walsham, Bournemouth, Henry Swailes, Oxford, Kemp & Phil Eggerdon, Weybridge, Torbay / Barnstaple / Exeter, Poole and Christchurch, James Kemp, hswailes@kempandkemp. Surrey and Surrounding Area, Stratton Creber Commercial and Sons, simonwalsham@ co.uk Eggerdon & Holland Ltd, phil@ jamesandsons.co.uk eggerdon-holland.co.uk Andrew Kilpatrick, Swindon, Iain Steele FRICS, Farnham, Kilpatrick & Co, a.kilpatrick@ Park Steele kilpatrick-cpc.co.uk

Contributor details

Tim Western, Exeter, JLL, Tim. Andy Venables, Birmingham, Robert Champion MRICS, Malcolm Stuart, York, Malcolm [email protected] Bilfinger GVA, andrew. Worcester, Halls (Worcester) Stuart Property Consultants LLP, [email protected] LLP [email protected] Tim Wright, Yeovil, RMW Knight, [email protected] Anthony Hargreave, Birmingham, Robin Hobson, Rugby, Arqiva, Mark Brearley MRICS, Bradford, Consultant, Rippleglen Ltd, [email protected] Mark Brearley & Company Wales [email protected] Simon Beedles, Shrewsbury/ Matthew Edwards, Leeds, Andrew Thomas, Cardiff, Anthony Rowland FRICS, Telford, Barbers, s.beedles@ Ryden, matthew.edwards@ andrew Thomas, andrew@ Evesham, Timothy Lea & barbers-online.co.uk ryden.co.uk andrewthomas.co.uk Griffiths, tony.rowland@tlgea. com Simon Hunt, Birmingham, JLL, Michael Stuart Westlake FRICS, Anthony Jenkins, Cardiff, Jenkins [email protected] Skipton, Westlake & Co. Best, [email protected] Charles Warrack, Birmingham, Johnson Fellows, charles. Simon Quirke, National, Gala, Nichols Child, Leeds, Clugston Anthony Phillips, Cardiff, [email protected] [email protected] Estates Ltd, nick.child@clugston. Anthony Phillips Commercial co.uk Property Ltd, anthony@ David Evans, Birmingham, JLL, Steven Haddock, Birmingham, anthonyphillipscp.com [email protected] Prologis UK Ltd, shaddock@ Richard Corby MRICS, Leeds, prologis.com Lambert Smith Hampton, Chris Sutton, Cardiff, JLL, chris. David Revill, Birmingham, [email protected] [email protected] Wulff Asset Management Ltd, Tim Reed, Hereford, Turner & [email protected] Co, [email protected] Richard Weatherhead, Leeds, David Cochlin, Carmarthen, John Frontline Estates Ltd, richard@ Francis, [email protected] Graham Jones, Lichfield, Yorkshire & Humberside frontlineestates.co.uk Kingston CPC, graham.jones@ Gareth Williams FRICS, North kingstoncpc.co.uk Alan Phelan, Hull, NPS Humber S Haynes, Kingston upon Hull, Wales, BA Commercial Gareth ltd, [email protected] NPS Humber, shau.haynes@ Williams, . James Bird, Wolverhampton, nps.co.uk Bulleys, james.bird@bulleys. Andrew Clark BSc FRICS, Gary Carver, Cardiff, Savills, co.uk Scunthorpe / Kingston upon Simon andrew Chadwick FRICS, [email protected] Hull / Beverley / Brigg / Grimsby, York, Chadwicks James Hemstock, Birmingham, Clark Weightman, andrewclark@ James Sanders, Cardiff, Powell JLL, [email protected] clarkweightman.co.uk Simon Preston, Hull, NPS, Lloyd, [email protected] [email protected] Jonathan Moore MRICS, Andrew Clark BSc FRICS, Jason Thorne, Swansea, BSC Coventry, Shortland Penn + Kingston upon Hull, Clark MRICS Moore Weightman, andrewclark@ clarkweightman.co.uk Mark Steven, Newport, Linnells Mark Lenton FRICS, Property Consultants, mark@ Birmingham, KWS Property Barry Crux, York, Barry Crux linnellspc.co.uk Management Ltd and Company, barry@barrycrux. co.uk Michael Bruce MRICS, Cardiff, Michael David Jones FRICS, DLP Surveyors, michael@ Herefordshire, Michael D Jones Barry Seal, Barnsley, Wilbys, dlpsurveyors.co.uk LTD., [email protected] [email protected]

Peter Graham BSc FRICS, Michael Eagleton, Birmingham, Carl Wright, Leeds, Jack Lunn Cardiff, Gerald Eve Eagleton and Co, mje@ (Properties) Ltd, carl.wright@ eagletonandco.com jacklunn.co.uk Richard Baddeley, North Wales Region, Richard Baddeley & Nick Waddinghton, Birmingham, David J Martindale MRICS, Company, rrbaddeley@hotmail. MWRE Wakefield, FSL, david. com [email protected] Peter Holt, Coventry / Rugby / Robert Ladd MRICS, Cardiff, Nuneaton / Leamington Spa, Graeme Haigh MRICS, DTZ D&P Holt Limited, peter@ Huddersfield, Bramleys LLP holtcommercial.co.uk West Midlands Jake Pygall, Leeds, Ryden LLP, Philip Waller, Birmingham, [email protected] Alex Eagleton, Birmingham, Gerald Eve LLP, pwaller@ Harris Lamb, alex.eagleton@ geraldeve.com John Reeves, York, Reeves and harrislamb.com Co, [email protected] Richard Mumford, Worcester, Andrew Hall, Birmingham, Arthur Giffiths and Mumford, Jonathan Peasgood, Leeds, CrowdProperty Ltd, andrew. richard.mumford@agmfarm. Fawley Watson Booth, [email protected] co.uk jonathan@fawleywatsonbooth. com

Information

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey Management

Tarrant Parsons Economist t: +44 (0)20 7695 1585 e: [email protected]

Simon Rubinsohn Chief Economist t: +44 (0)20 7334 3774 e: [email protected]

Contributors

Survey questionnaires were sent out on the 24th June with responses received until 12th July. Number of contributors to this survey : 392

For contributor database enquiries please contact: Janet Guilfoyle t: +44 (0)20 7334 3890 e: [email protected]

For data subscription enquiries please contact: Tarrant Parsons Economist t: +44 (0)20 7695 1585 e: [email protected]

17 © RICS Economics 2016 Q2 2016 Confidence through professional standards RICS promotes and enforces the highest professional We believe that standards underpin effective markets. With qualifications and standards in the development and up to seventy per cent of the world’s wealth bound up in land management of land, real estate, construction and and real estate, our sector is vital to economic development, infrastructure. Our name promises the consistent helping to support stable, sustainable investment and growth delivery of standards – bringing confidence to the around the globe. markets we serve. With offices covering the major political and financial centres We accredit 118,000 professionals and any individual or firm of the world, our market presence means we are ideally placed registered with RICS is subject to our quality assurance. Their to influence policy and embed professional standards. We expertise covers property, asset valuation and real estate work at a cross-governmental level, delivering international management; the costing and leadership of construction standards that will support a safe and vibrant marketplace projects; the development of infrastructure; and the in land, real estate, construction and infrastructure, for the management of natural resources, such as mining, farms and benefit of all. woodland. From environmental assessments and building We are proud of our reputation and we guard it fiercely, so controls to negotiating land rights in an emerging economy; clients who work with an RICS professional can have confidence if our members are involved the same professional standards in the quality and ethics of the services they receive. and ethics apply.

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