ALERT STATUS: NORMAL FOOD SECURITY UPDATE WWWAAATTTCCCHHH WARNING JANUARY 2006 EMERGENCY

CONTENTS SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS Food relief update ...... 1 The food security situation in areas of southern half of Zambia affected by the drought Good Harvest Expected...... 2 last season is expected to improve as the availability of early harvested crops increases Market analysis ...... 3 towards the end of February and into March. Already, areas with winter production are harvesting, and this will improve household food availability. Although some wild foods are becoming available to rural households, the quantities are not adequate to sustain them and relief food distribution needs to continue for 1,424,467 beneficiaries until March. By the end of February, the green harvest should improve food access, and relief food interventions can be scaled down in some areas. The growing season is generally progressing well; most crops have reached the late vegetative to flowering stage and are generally in good condition. Based on the rainfall performance so far, the country is expected to have a good harvest. However, there are areas of concern which include and some districts in Southern Province, where excessive rainfall has resulted into yellowing of maize. In addition, parts of Eastern Province (Lundazi) had continued experiencing erratic rainfall and crops there are mostly in early to mid vegetative stage. Maize imports from South Africa have increased significantly in recent months, ensuring a steady supply of maize to urban markets. In rural areas, maize prices in some districts, particularly the high producing areas, have stabilized as early foods become available and households have more access to relief food. SEASONAL TIMELINE

FOOD RELIEF UPDATE

In drought affected areas in southern half of Zambia, WFP, Figure 1: Population (%) in need of food assistance C-SAFE and the Government of Zambia are still providing food aid to 1,424,467 beneficiaries using implementing N NGOs. Distributions should be scaled back by the end of W E March, after which most households are expected to cope S on their own as early foods become abundantly available before the main harvest in April/May. Most of the major areas of concern are still found within Southern and Western provinces which had highest percentage of population needing food assistance.

The food security situation in areas affected by last season’s # drought is expected to start improving as the green harvest becomes available towards the end of February. Already, # seasonal foods such as mushrooms, wild fruits and Zm_rivers.shp Needing Food Assistance vegetables are available, providing rural households with No Relief <20% supplemental sources of food. In areas near perennial 20-30% rivers, such as parts of Northwestern and Western provinces 30-40% >40% and valley areas of Southern and Eastern provinces, where Source: VAC

FEWS NET Zambia Fax: 260 1 262751 Plot 30G Sable Road, Tel:260 1 262750/1 FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Kabulonga. P.O Box Email: [email protected] www.fews.net 32481, Lusaka

Zambia Food Security Update January 2006 winter production is practiced, farmers have begun harvesting, improving the food access of households living along the and Luangwa rivers. In , for example, some households had by mid January already started consuming green maize and pumpkins. Provided the season continues to perform well and harvest prospects remain bright, the current emergency food relief interventions should wind up by the end of March, to make way for the newly harvested local food. A scaling down of interventions should begin in the month of March for selected districts. These should include those areas where households are harvesting winter cereal. GOOD HARVEST EXPECTED IN HIGH PRODUCING AREAS Generally, the country is currently receiving good rainfall for continued good crop performance in all parts of the country. On cumulative basis as of January 20th, much of the country has received normal rainfall with parts of central and southwestern Zambia having received more rainfall than normal. During the second dekad of January, more rainfall was received in southern and central Zambia compared to the long term average for this time of the year (see Figure 2a). Although some parts of Eastern Province (Lundazi and Mambwe Districts) have continued recording below normal cumulative rainfall, rainfall since mid December has been adequate for good crop development. These areas were receiving little or no rainfall in the earlier part of the season (November), but the situation has since greatly improved. The impact on crop performance as a result of the poor start of season for parts of Lundazi is evident from the poor crop conditions, while in Mambwe, the situation normalized much earlier and crops are generally in good condition.

Figure 2a: Rainfall Estimate Jan. 20 vs. Normal Figure 2b: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index, 1/20/06

Source: FEWSNET / USGS

The water requirement satisfaction index for maize (Figure 2b) shows that the crop is generally in good condition, and if this situation continues into February and March, Zambia will have a good harvest. Field visits during the end of January/early February confirmed this. Maize is generally performing very well. Where early planting was done, the crop is at grain filling stage, while crops sown from late November to early December are mostly flowering. The land planted to maize has generally increased, while that under soybeans has declined due to lower prices during the current marketing season. This has forced many small scale farmers to cut back on hectarage under soybeans. Both the food and cash crops are generally in good condition. Most of the cotton grown under contract farming although in good condition was planted a little late due to delayed seed deliveries. The crop is mostly in early to mid vegetative stage, when it should be nearly flowering at this time of the year. Despite this, a good cotton harvest is expected going by the crop stand. Tobacco is doing very well, and harvesting has just started. There have been however isolated reports of army worm infestations from (300 ha), Livingstone (3ha), Namwala/Itezhi Itezi (25Km stretch) and Mkushi (2000 ha under commercial Farm Block and 20ha in Mansansa Block) districts. The Ministry of Agriculture has already conducted an assessment of the situation and spraying has been done. Parts of affected areas were replanted, but the situation needs close monitoring for new incidences, especially in

2 Zambia Food Security Update January 2006

Namwala/Itezhi Itezi and Sesheke where only part of the affected area was sprayed. The District Agricultural Officers have set up traps in most districts neighboring outbreak areas in an effort to monitor the situation. There are also isolated incidences of stock borer; however yield loss as a result of this will not be significant. Hail storms also destroyed a few fields of maize and cotton in isolated areas of Mkushi and Mumbwa Districts. In Sesheke District (Western Province) part of the crop in low lying areas along the Zambezi River was washed away.

The major limitation during the current cropping season for small scale farmers was the inadequate access to inputs. Some farmers used part of the relief maize as seed, while many had problems accessing fertilizer. Most small scale farmers wait for the limited fertilizer distributed under the input support programs, which had only targeted no more than 20% of the small scale farmers in the current production year. For Mumbwa District specifically, fertilizer on the market was in short supply aggravating the situation. Limited sweet potato vines as a result of loss of planting material during the last drought may also affect output for the current season. General cutting back of hectarage put to cash crops is expected in subsequent seasons in response to reduction in prices as a result of the significant strengthening of the local currency. Among these crops are cotton, tobacco and paprika. In Eastern Province, reduced hectarage for these crops is expected in the current season.

The much heavier than normal rains in parts of Central Province (Mumbwa District) and in some districts in Southern Province (see Figure 2a) are having a negative impact on crops, particularly maize. The maize is evidently turning yellow as a result of combination of nutrient leaching and disruption of timely weeding. This situation was confirmed during the field visit, and in areas that received heavy rains, there is a greater prevalence of yellowing maize crops than in those where rains are normal. FEWS NET recommends that these areas be monitored very closely as the season progresses, as the excessive rainfall can reduce yields significantly in affected areas. MARKET ANALYSIS

The flow of maize to major urban markets has Figure 3: Maize Import Trend 2005/06 Marketing Season accelerated in the last two months as the pace of 25000 imports has increased. The combination of FRA Recorded Total sales and increased imports has ensured adequate Formal SA supplies of maize meal in major towns. As of 20000 Informal Tanzania January 27, SAGIS reported that Zambia has imported 39,879 MT of maize from South Africa this marketing season. With a meager 284 MT at 15000 the start of the formal importation period in the last week of September, imports have now increased to

19,000 MT for the month of January. The recorded Metric Tons 10000 volume of informal imports grew between July and September, but started falling in October as prices in Tanzania shot up and available quantities there 5000 began to drop as the country copes with a poor vuli crop and delayed start to their main season

(msimu). The volume of maize imports from South 0

Africa is expected to increase further as the FRA Oct Jan July Nov Dec Aug May Sept imports have now started arriving. Although the June Imports exclude formal imports from Tanzania. SA imports are target for FRA was to import 50,000MT of maize, as at January 27th.Informal imports for January are not yet it is unlikely that this will be met, considering that available. FRA imports have just started in January and the Source: SAGIS, Informal Cross Border Trade deadline for importation is end of March, to give way for local maize which will start reaching the market by April.

3 Zambia Food Security Update January 2006

The maize price situation is mixed. While some areas have been reporting price stability, others are still reporting increased prices. Price stability has been recorded in some high producing areas, including Figure 4: Mid Marketing Year Nominal Prices for Choma, Kalomo, Mazabuka (Southern Province), Selected Districts 25000 Kaoma (Western Province) and Mkushi (Central Oct Nov

Province) which could be either due to household Dec Jan access to a little early food or improved access to relief 20000 food. Other areas where prices have stabilized include most urban centers, such as Lusaka, Ndola and Kabwe, 15000 as well as some areas where winter production is practiced (e.g. ) and harvesting takes place in January. In urban centers, this situation ZMK/15Kg 10000 suggests that market supplies of maize are stable, supported by the fact that import flows have greatly 5000 increased in the last two months.

0 In real terms, prices for areas such as Senanga and Kalomo Kaoma Senanga Lusaka Kaoma are at the same level as last year for December Source: FEWS NET /CSO while Kalomo prices are significantly higher. This suggests that for some areas, the food security situation is beginning to normalize as early foods start to become available. The maize price situation confirms the need to start scaling down on food relief distribution in some districts, starting in March. For January, prices remained relatively stable with respect to December in Kaoma and Kalomo Districts.

Figure 5: Real Maize Price Trend for Three Highly Food Insecure Districts (May 2002 – Jan 2006)

Kalomo 3000 Kaoma 2500 Senanga

2000

1500

ZMK/15Kg 1000

500

0 Jan July July July July Nov Nov Nov Nov May May May Sept Sept Sept Sept March March March Jan '03 Jan Jan '04 Jan Jan '05 Jan May '02

4