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Linius Technologies (LNU) 26 May 2021 Linius Technologies (LNU) Wayne Sanderson – Head of Research NBL and Wolves commence; Universities, Swanbay and IMG engaged [email protected] +61 400 434 548 Recommendation Speculative Buy Summary Linius Technologies Limited (LNU) listed in March 2017 with Risk Rating High an exciting patented video search and re-compilation 24-mth Target Price (AUD) $0.10 (was $0.25) technology, but no product or customers. Share Price (AUD) $0.022 Traditional search engines cannot automatically crawl videos, 12-mth Price Range $0.011 - $0.075 so have to rely on text data associated with the video. LNU Forecast 12-mth Capital Growth 377% has invented and patented the Video Virtualisation Engine Forecast 12-mth Dividend Yield 0.0% (VVE) which indexes, analyses, and tags each frame in a 12-mth Total Shareholder Return 377% conventional video and transforms it into a fully searchable “Virtualised Video”. This allows a hyper-personalised single video reel to be compiled on-the-fly from an infinite number of Market cap ($m) 33.1 source videos applying the users’ bespoke search criteria. Net debt (net cash) ($m)(Mar 21) (3.1) Each reel contains just the footage the user wants to see. Fully Enterprise Value ($m) 30.0 automated and repeatable, it can be a personalised video Gearing (Net Debt/ Equity) N/a – Net Cash channel. Costs to serve are remarkably low. Shares on Issue (m) 1,511.6 Sports Commercialisation Begins Options / Perf rights on Issue (m) 40.8 In March LNU gained its 2nd and 3rd commercial launches – Sector Software & Services with Hungry Jack’s National Basketball League (NBL) in Average Daily Value Traded ($) $234,000 Australia, and LNU’s first English Premier League (EPL) team ASX 300 Weight n/a - Wolverhampton Wanderers (via partner Swanbay). Swanbay also announced a new partnership with global sports and events management firm IMG. The importance of the Wolves launch is demonstrated by Swanbay now having > 20 active proposals under discussion with other EPL and sports teams, leagues and event owners. Swanbay is confident of converting several of these opportunities by Xmas. University Challenge LNU has targeted 20 of Australia’s 43 universities which it believes are innovative and prime candidates for LNU’s video indexing, search and compilation platform. Consultant Kerrie Campbell (ex CIO Flinders Uni and Adelaide Uni; 28 years’ experience in government, utilities and banking) is guiding LNU’s approach. Discussions and demonstrations are under way with most of this prime-target group. Kerrie thinks that short trials <4 weeks will be required. CEO Chris Richardson said on a webinar on Friday that LNU hopes to sign 8-10 of these in coming quarters. Valuation & Recommendation We believe LNU is now on the cusp of commercialisation. We have modelled 3 potential revenue scenarios: Scenario A: $7.7m revenue in FY24 based on 4 Australian LNU SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE and 10 US universities $6.6m, plus minor Sports and Enterprise revenue $1.1m. Valuation: 1.5c to 2.5c. A capital raise would probably be required within 6 months. Scenario B: $39m revenue in FY24 based on 8 Australian, 30 US and 20 Rest of World universities $26m, plus $5m Sports and $8m Enterprise revenue. Valuation: 7.6c to 12.6c. Scenario C: $92m revenue in FY24 based on 22 Australian, 60 US and 40 R.O.W. universities $55m, plus $14m Sports plus $23m Enterprise. Valuation: 17.9c to 29.8c. We set our 24-mth price target at the mid-point of Scenario B which is $0.10. Our previous $0.25 PT was an optimistic scenario, and is still possible, but is not our central case. Sequoia Financial Group | Equity Research Linius Technologies Limited (LNU) Source: Linius Broker Briefing presentation 20/5/21 What has changed since our last report (3/12/20)? 1. NBL - LNU Sports Solution went live with NBL (Australian men’s basketball league) on 17/3/21. 2. EPL (English Premier League) - LNU’s UK sales partner Swanbay Limited announced a live deployment of the LNU Sports Solution with English Premier League soccer club, Wolverhampton Wanderers (“The Wolves”), and a new partnership with IMG (also announced 17/3/21). Exciting pipeline of EPL & other prospects named. 3. Linius appointed new UK-based (Manchester) sales executive David Nortier as Chief Revenue Officer – EMEA to focus on securing repeat commercial sales of the Linius Sports Solution. 4. Whizzard Learn – 1 trial underway with a leading Australian University via partner LiveTiles (ASX: LVT). (per LNU Q3 quarterly report 30/4/21). 5. Appoints Kerrie Campbell (ex CIO) of Flinders University as a specialist sales consultant to target the tertiary education market in Australia. (per Q3 report). 6. Appointed John Wallace as a US-based N.E.D on 14/12/20. John was previously President and CEO of Deluxe Entertainment Services (century old post production and video distribution services company), and prior to that, President, Operations & Technical Services at NBC Universal (studio, production, and video distribution operations). 30 years’ experience. 7. Appointed Rob Scott (US-based) to Linius Advisory Board. Currently CEO of Cygilant (cybersecurity), previously Worldwide General Manager for Hewlett Packard energy and sustainability unit. Former E&Y entrepreneur of the year, and start-up expert. 8. March Quarterly report (Q3). (Reviewed at p9). 9. 1H21 Results. (Reviewed at p10). 10. Changes in Sequoia forecasts. (refer p11). 11. New scenario-based valuation framework (refer pp 12-13). Page 2 Sequoia Financial Group | Equity Research Linius Technologies Limited (LNU) NBL basketball league solution goes live The Linius sports solution went live with the Hungry Jack’s National Basketball League (NBL) in March (refer ASX announcement 17/3/21). This was originally announced on 26 November 2019 so has been a long time coming. The NBL now offers a personalised TV channel (video highlights service) on the NBL website. NBL owner and Executive Chairman Larry Kestelman said: “This unique service provides an opportunity to extend the reach of our sport by allowing our fans to curate and share their own channels. We want our fans to be able to watch basketball in as many different ways they choose and enjoy the game with family and friends in what is another fantastic season.” The launch was delayed due to Covid and also because the NBL changed its video platform provider. We think it is an extremely important milestone for LNU because: It is really only LNU’s second major commercial deployment after Racing.com (thoroughbred racing). It is a significantly more complex deployment than Racing.com, and represents the first service of its kind in the world. So it instantly becomes LNU’s flagship reference site for other potential customers to look at the new video search and assembly product LNU has created (a personalised basketball highlights channel creating unique content instantaneously for each and every user). LNU says this has never been possible before. We estimate revenue of $100-200k pa to LNU. Not huge, but LNU needed another good reference customer and NBL is incentivised under the agreement to introduce the LNU technology to other international basketball leagues. The majority owner of NBL is Melbourne-based entrepreneur Larry Kestelman (founder of Dodo internet) and a passionate basketball supporter. With an entrepreneur at the helm (rather than big committees), we think that LNU could not have found a better partner. International professional basketball deals could be $0.5m -$1.0m each of revenue to LNU. Investors need to be patient. We think the product looks good, the strategy is sound and the prospects are excellent. Source: NBL website showing location of personalised video channel (powered by Linius) Page 3 Sequoia Financial Group | Equity Research Linius Technologies Limited (LNU) UK / European Sports – Wolverhampton Wolves; IMG 1. LNU’s UK sales partner Swanbay Limited has delivered its first live deployment of the LNU Sports Solution with Wolverhampton Wanderers (“The Wolves”), an English Premier League soccer club. So in the same month, this became LNU’s 3rd full-scale commercial deployment, and the first in the northern hemisphere. 2. We spoke directly to Swanbay. The initial launch targeted ~5,000 Wolves fans (e.g. gold members, VIPs, and very active social media fans). The deployment has achieved very encouraging early results (> 2,000 downloads by > 600 users, average 4 mins 43 seconds viewed, average of 3.85 game highlights viewed per user) demonstrating increased fan engagement. Swanbay has received positive feedback from the customer and from the online feedback form sent to the initial user group. Further levels of engagement with the Wolves are being planned including a 2020/21 season highlights package, for a gradual expansion to the wider fan base (1.7m Instagram followers – refer table opposite). 3. Some of these new offerings will be premium offerings behind a pay-wall. Some will be sponsored. So the LNU platform will be creating new revenue streams for clubs, as well as boosting fan engagement. 4. Revenue to LNU is based on minutes of video extracted (no base fee). 5. Swanbay also said that getting this live reference site up and running has made an enormous difference to awareness and credibility of the Swanbay / LNU Sports Solution, and its marketing efforts are already so much easier. It now has over 20 live proposals in its pipeline. Discussions are underway with Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Women’s’ Soccer League (IMG client), Golf European Tour (IMG client), ATP Tennis (IMG client) as per LNU’s 17/3/21 market update, and others. 6. The UK EPL soccer season finished last weekend. Swanbay is working on a number of season’s highlights packages and “classic” archive packages with the Wolves and a select number of other EPL teams including big name teams.
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