ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

• The number of food insecure people has increased from 4.6 Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, million people in June to 6.4 million people in October. In Quarter four 2008 (October - December) addition, 5.7 million chronically food insecure people assisted through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), have received an additional three months of food and cash following a poor belg harvest (July/August). The increased food insecurity is a result of high food and fuel prices, the failure of the belg harvest, recurrent droughts, flooding; human and livestock disease, and conflict.

• Cereal prices have generally continued to decrease since September 2008, despite a more than 50 percent increase in the price of fuel. The decrease in cereal prices is attributed to the new harvest of maize coming into the markets, the green harvest available in most areas,

continued food aid programs, the sale of subsidized wheat Source: FEWS NET and WFP by the government, and traders off‐loading stocks in anticipation of a good harvest. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale

• Unseasonal rainfall was received in the last week October and the 1st dekad of November across the country, reducing the harvest potential of already matured maize, wheat, barley and teff crops, mainly in the midland and lowland areas. However, the rains have been beneficial to late‐planted crops which required one to three showers.. The continuation of the Deyr (October to December) rains in the Somali region and neighboring lowlands of Oromia has resulted in regeneration of pasture, browse and water sources.

• Crop production estimates based on the Livelihood Early Assessment and protection (LEAP) software analysis indicate that as of the first dekad of October, crop production in the western parts of the country is generally about average. However yield losses of up to 30 percent are expected in eastern Tigray, parts of Amhara and Oromiya regions.

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +251 11 662 02 17/18 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

Food security overview

The population requiring emergency food assistance remains at 6.4 million people. This is in addition to the 7.5 million people assisted through the PSNP. While the PNSP normally ends in July, about 5.7 million people affected by the failure of the belg and sapie rains continued to receive assistance for an additional three months starting August 2008, of which about 70 percent are receiving food. In addition, the delay in transfers of PSNP resources resulted in some PSNP beneficiaries continuing to receive food and cash assistance through November 2008. With the increase in food prices and inflation pegged at 40.3 percent in October 2008, the donors, government, and partners completed a midterm review of the safety net program in October 2008 and increased the cash‐for‐work wage from Birr 8 to Birr 10 /person/day starting in January 2009.

All 2008 PNSP resource requirements are fully met. However, due to a pipeline break that occurred in July 2008, emergency beneficiaries will continue to receive two‐thirds of the standard ration until the end of the year and the November relief ration excluded pulses and oil. In order to meet the emergency needs through December, a shortfall of 85,819 MT of food, equivalent to USD74.1 million, is required. This total includes 83,010 MT (USD71.7 million) for Relief and 2,809 MT (USD 2.4 million) for the Therapeutic and Supplementary Feeding program needs to be met.

The general food security situation in the country has continued to improve since October 2008 due to the availability of the 2008 meher harvest (September‐November) in most cropping areas and widespread deyr rains in the pastoral areas starting from October 2008. These rains have led to the recovery of pasture and browse and improved water availability, leading to improved animal body conditions and increased milk production in pastoral areas. However, these improvements will only benefit those who still have livestock remaining following the recent drought. Along with climatic improvements, cereal prices have started to decline in most markets around the country and high rates of acute malnutrition and feeding center admissions, especially in Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) and lowland areas of West Arsi in Oromia region, have also started to decrease. New cases of malnutrition do however continue to be reported from midland areas of Dodola, Adaba, and Gedeb Asasa woredas in West Arsi zone of Oromia. Cases of acute malnutrition also continue to be reported in the pastoral areas of the Somali region. The extent of food and non‐food needs will be determined by mid December for cropping areas and by the end of December for pastoral areas as the Government has deployed a multi‐agency, multi‐sectoral needs assessment mission starting November 3 in , November 17 in other cropping areas and the Afar pastoral areas, and on December 2 in the pastoral areas of Somali region.

Food insecurity remains a concern in a number of places throughout the country. In the eastern woredas of West and East Hararghe Zones in Oromiya Region, Harari, and Dire Dawa City Administration, WFP’s regular food security monitoring reports indicate that major crops, like sorghum and maize, have failed in some lowland and midland areas. Due to these crop failures, areas including the lowland areas of Bokie woreda in West Harerghe Zone, and Gole Oda, Midhega Tola, and Fedis woredas in East Harerghe zone have requested increased food assistance from the government. In these areas, WFP field reports also indicate that labor migration is abnormally high, household meal frequency and quality has declined, livestock sales have increased (especially shoats), firewood and charcoal sales have increased, and begging has become a prominent means of survival. However, food security will improve slightly in these areas once the late planted crops, like barley, wheat, teff, beans, and chickpea that have benefited from the continuation of unseasonable rains in October and November, are harvested.

In Tigray region, poor kiremt (June to September) rainfall performance has affected crop yields and will therefore impact food security, especially in parts of East and South Tigray zones (Erob ‐ where the woreda crop assessment indicated 85 percent loss, Ray Azebo, Sase Tsead Amba, Alajie, Tankqua Abergelle, Mereb Leke, Ahferom, Tselemtie, Ahferom, Gulomekeda, and Enda Mehoni woredas) that are reported to be severely affected. Cases of malnutrition have been reported in Erob and Gulomekeda woredas. A total of 882 children children under five have been identified as severely malnourished, and 2,292 children and 414 mothers were identified as moderately malnourished in these two woredas. This level of malnutrition is unusual, as these areas normally benefit from harvests at this time of the year. Unverified cases of edema were reported in some areas of Raya Azebo and Tanqua Abergelle woredas. Food security could deteriorate further in the affected woredas unless early food interventions are provided. Water for human and livestock consumption is also becoming a problem in some kebeles of Tanqua Abergelle, Tselemtie, Erob, Sase Tsead Amba, Raya Azebo, Atsbi‐Wonberta and Alaje woredas.

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

In the Somali region, the Deyr rains have provided some relief, following four consecutive below‐normal rainfall seasons that resulted in high levels of livestock mortality, up to 60 percent for some families. As a result, while climatic conditions are improving, food insecurity remains a problem in most of the region due to loss of livelihoods; in addition to insecurity‐ related markets access problems, crop failure in agropastoral areas, generally high food prices, and the low livestock prices, though livestock prices started to improve in October due to improved body conditions. Field reports indicate high levels of malnutrition among children and lactating/pregnant women in areas such as Filtu and Dolo Ado woredas. For example, in Filtu woreda 152 malnourished children were admitted to the hospital from 1st of Sept to 10th of October 2008. As a result of food insecurity in the affected areas, coping mechanisms such as an unusual increase in livestock sales (including productive and pack animal), intensification of charcoal and firewood sales, hunting of wild animals, increased begging, increased involvement in petty trade (e.g., tea shops), and migration to bigger towns in search of labor and food assistance have been reported. The situation in the Somali region has been further exacerbated by flooding in the Wabe Shabele river basin on October 31 2008. The river burst its banks in Mustahil, Ferfer , East Imey and Kalafo woredas, affecting 96,900 people, killing about 570 livestock and affecting some cropping areas. Although the flooding has immediate negative impacts, flooding is also beneficial in that maize and sorghum are planted in affected areas once the flood waters recede.

In , the Performance of the main Karma rainy season (July to September) was below average, especially in zones 2, 4 and 5. Resulting shortages of pasture, browse, and water have led to reduced access to milk and poor livestock body conditions eroding terms of trade for pastoralists. There has also been a reduction in Targeted Supplementary Food (TSF) rations and a two month delay in the provision of PSNP food, both of which have aggravated food security problems in the drought affected areas of , , , Korrie , , and woredas. A lack of drinking water for human consumption is already a problem in some of these woredas. As a result, the Food Security and Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau (FSDPPB) has plans to undertake water trucking from Logiya town in woreda to Elidar, Korie, Bidu and Erebti woredas for the next three months. While the region did receive two to three days of unseasonable, moderate rains in October, the amount received was not significant in most parts of the region and is not expected to make much difference in the availability of water and pasture. The coming months are likely to be dry and the next seasonal rains are not expected until March 2009.

Seasonal progress

Kiremt (Meher) rains (June to September) are the main rains for most crop producing parts of the country, accounting for approximately 90 to 95 percent of total annual crop production. Crops harvested using these rains include maize, sorghum, teff, wheat, barley, millet, and pulses, and are used as sources of both food and income for agricultural and agropastoral households. Kiremt rains begin in April in the western parts of the country, and then expand to the north and the east to cover most of the country by June. Exceptions include the pastoral region of Afar and the northern zones of Somali Region, which do not receive rains until July, and the southern and southeastern pastoral areas, which receive no precipitation during this period.

Overall performance of the kiremt rains was normal to above normal in the western crop producing parts of the country. In the eastern half however, the rains began up to a month late and ended early. Performance of the belg rains (February to May) was also below average this year in south and southeastern Tigray, eastern Amhara, eastern parts of SNNP region and eastern Oromia. As a result, planting of long‐cycle meher crops (maize and sorghum), which are high yielding and rely on moisture from the belg rains, was below average this year. Lower yielding short cycle varieties were planted instead. Therefore, this year’s production prospects are poor for meher crops in the eastern parts of the country (e.g., eastern Oromia, eastern Tigray, and eastern Amhara especially those along the border with Afar region). The Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for maize in the first dekad of November (Figure 2) also shows mediocre to failing maize crop conditions in parts of eastern Ethiopia and according to the Livelihood Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) bulletin prepared by the UN World Food Program, the World Bank and the Government of Ethiopia, a 10 to 40 percent reduction in yields of long cycle crops is expected in the eastern parts of the country and short‐cycle crop yields are expected to decline 10 to 30 percent in these areas.

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

Karma, the main rainy season in Afar region (July to Figure 2. Maize Water Requirement Satisfaction Index st September), started late and performed poorly this year. (WRSI), November 1 dekad, 2008 Performance of the rains was particularly poor in Zones 2, 4 and 5. According to the regional monthly food security update of October, livestock movement, both within the region and to other areas (mostly to the banks of the Awash river), started earlier than usual due to the rapid deterioration of pasture and water.

The current period, October to December, is the secondary rainy season for the southern zones of Somali Region, neighboring lowlands of Oromia Region and the South Omo zone of SNNPR. The seasonal outlook released on October 2 by the National Meteorology Agency for the period October 2008 to January 2009 predicted that performance of the rains in these parts of the country for this period would be normal to below‐normal. However, thus far, the rains have been close to normal in Somali region and above‐normal in the neighboring lowlands of Oromia and in South Omo.

Although most of southern Somali region has received good Source: USGS rains, most of Gode, parts of Warder, and parts of Afder Zones received below average precipitation. Therefore, while water availability significantly improved throughout Somali region and water trucking has ceased in most areas, it continues in most areas of Gode zone. Availability of pasture has also started to improve with the rains.

Flooding of the Wabe Shebele and Genale rivers was reported following recent unseasonable heavy rains in the highlands of Oromia. According to reports from affected wordeas, communities in seven woredas of Gode, Afder and Jijiga Zones were affected. Most of the areas affected are typically flood prone and practice flood recession farming. The regional DMFSS will undertake a rapid assessment to assess the extent of the damage and the type of assistance required.

After the cessation of rains in most parts of the country, unseasonable rains began in mid October and light to heavy rains were received through the first dekad of November in all parts of the country. Although the impact of the unseasonable rains is yet to be assessed, it is expected to be beneficial for meher crops in the highland areas where crops are mostly at grain filling stage. It is also expected to be useful for perennial crops such as coffee and enset. In most midland and lowland areas however, where crops like maize, sorghum, teff, barley, wheat, pulses, noug, and sesame are either already harvested or ready to be harvested, the rains are expected to have detrimental effects.

Markets, trade, and food access

Cereal prices began declining in September following the start of the meher harvest (both dry and green), food aid interventions, the extension of the PSNP program (which switched most beneficiaries from cash to food beginning in July 2008), and the resumption of government sales of 150,000 MT of subsidized wheat (at Birr 350/100kg) in urban areas starting in mid‐August 2008. In addition, traders have begun releasing their stocks in anticipation of the new harvest, and the government plans to import an additional 150,000 MT of wheat, part of which is expected to be used for the urban stabilization program.

However, despite these declines, the prices of cereals are still extremely high compared to the five year average (2003‐ 2007) and are also higher than the import parity price. For example the nominal retail price of white maize in October 2008, the cereal most widely consumed by the poor, was 172 percent higher than the 2003‐2007 average price for the same month (Figure 4). It is also 112 percent higher than in October 2007. Compared to the September 2008 price, the

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

nominal retail price of white maize has shown a significant decline of 25 percent. The prices of white maize in Mekele and Bahir Dar have shown a 10 percent and a 2.7 percent decline, respectively, compared to last month (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Nominal retail prices of white maize in Mekele Figure 4. Nominal retail prices of white maize in Addis and Bahir Dar, December 2007 Ababa compared to the 2002-06 monthly average

Source: data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian birr ≈ 11 US cents.

However, although cereal prices have started to decline, prices will likely remain high – and above 2007 levels – through the end of 2008, and through 2009 as well because the opening prices for cereals following the recent harvest were about 100 percent higher than in 2007. Should high prices persist, or rise, food security conditions will continue to deteriorate, particularly for poor, urban populations; poor, market‐dependent farmers; and pastoral and agropastoral populations that rely heavily on the market to buy food.

Preliminary results of an Urban Food Security and Vulnerability Survey conducted in Addis Ababa by the UN World Food Program between the 20th of June and the 15th of July 2008, show a change in consumption between January and June 2008, as measured by a food consumption score based on dietary diversity and food frequency (7 day recall). According to the classifications of the food consumption score, households with ‘poor’ consumption managed to eat the equivalent of only cereals and vegetables on a daily basis. This is considered a bare minimum and is a sign of extreme household food insecurity. Households with ‘borderline’ consumption are eating the equivalent of cereals and vegetables on a daily basis plus pulses and oils about four times per week. Households classified as having ‘good’ consumption on average consume: cereals, beans, vegetables, sugar and oil each day. Those with ‘acceptable’ consumption eat a similar diet but some items less frequently.

The analysis shows that in January, 64 percent of the households had “good” consumption compared to 40 percent by June 2008. The percentage of households with “acceptable” consumption increased from 24 to 33 percent and those with “borderline” consumption increased from 9 to 22 percent. While there was little increase in the proportion of people consuming “poor” diets, overall, the study indicates that people are consuming less diverse diets and suggest the serious impact of the high food prices on household food consumption, despite the Government’s stabilization efforts. As a follow up to the survey, respondents were given the chance to identify and prioritize the initiatives needed to minimize the impact of the current high food prices. Improved access to subsidized food was found to be the most important priority, followed by improved access to electricity, safe drinking water, better employment, and food aid, in that order. Therefore, there is a need to continue to support the urban poor through the subsidized sale of wheat. Currently, the subsidized wheat is sold at half the market price (350 Birr/100 Kgs). Although selling wheat at a subsidized price supports targeted households, it did not help to stabilize cereal market prices. Additional measures that target the markets directly, such as importing more food into the country selling to wholesalers, need to be implemented in the short term to stabilize prices so food security does not deteriorate further. In the long run, increasing agricultural production in both the surplus and deficit producing parts of the country is a critical to stabilize prices and to insure food security in a country whose entire economy is heavily dependent on agricultural production.

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

Update on Somali Region

The failure of three consecutive seasonal rains since the middle of April 2007, compounded by steadily increasing grain prices since 2005, has gradually depleted the resilience of the pastoral, agro pastoral and riverine populations in Somali region, leaving them more vulnerable to food insecurity. The reduction of household income from livestock sales, as a result of poor animal body conditions, following reduced availability of water and pasture and as a result of unfavorable terms of trade, has further exacerbated food insecurity. Although not verified by standard nutritional surveys, screening exercises carried out for the purpose of nutrition interventions (mainly Therapeutic Supplementary Feeding Centers (TSFs)) suggest high levels of acute rates of malnutrition among children under five years old, and among lactating and pregnant women. For example, the number of severely malnourished children admitted to Gode Hospital has increased to 16 to 20 per day in October compared to one child per day in September. According to the Regional Food Securtiy Update, in Fik Zone, the mortality rate of livestock has been increasing since September and the severe shortage of food, water and animal feed has caused displacement among the pastoral population. The poor rains in 2007 and 2008, coupled with poor access to commercial as well as humanitarian food supplies, makes the situation most severe in Garbo, Sagag and Duhun woredas of the zone.

The October to December deyr rains started on time this year and eased water shortages in most of the seven deyr benefiting zones (Fik, Warder, Korahe, Dagahbour, Liban and Afder). Gode Zone, however, has received below‐average rains since the season began. Water trucking, which has been ongoing in all southern zones of Somali Region, has ceased in all zones except for Gode. Although the current rains are expected to ease immediate shortages of pasture and water, recovery will take significant time, as there has been a significant loss of livestock, a major source of income, throughout the drought period. For the pastoralists and agro pastoralists who still have livestock, improvement in the availability of water and pasture will enhance animal’s physical condition and productivity, reducing food insecurity.

On the other hand, the northern two zones of the region, Shinile and Jijiga, are exclusive recipients of the July to September karan rains. Following poor 2008 gu (April to June) rains, karan rains have improved the availability of water and pasture in most parts of Jigjiga, though they were inadequate for the crop producing agropastoral areas of the zone. However, most parts of Shinile the zone remained dry. Woredas such as Aysha, Shinile, Afdem and Erer of Shinile zone received very poor rains during the karan season. These woredas are expected to face serious shortages of pasture and water during the long dry, jilaal season until rains begin in April 2009. Shortages of water and pasture in these mostly pastoral areas will lead to increased food insecurity through low livestock productivity, poor livestock/cereal terms of trade and severe shortage of drinking water for human consumption.

The humanitarian assistance being provided by the government and its partners in this region has been inadequate and slow compared to the scale and urgency of the need. More than 60 percent of the region’s population requires emergency assistance, accounting for 30 percent of the national total (6.4 million acutely food insecure people). As of October 23, only four percent of the region’s September food aid allocation had been dispatched. To improve the food distribution in the region, a hubs and spokes distribution system has been initiated. Under this approach, a special committee has been formed to oversee all food interventions in the Somali Region. It is jointly chaired by the UN WFP and the Disaster Management and Food Security Section (DMFSS), the new government structure under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development mandated to handle humanitarian activities. Similar committees, but which include the Regional Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau (DPPB), local authorities, and the Ethiopia Defense Forces (EDF), are in place at Gode, Dire Dawa, Kebridehar, and Degehabour to monitor the implementation of the operation. The committees, both at the federal and regional levels, have been fully functional since October 9th 2008. Under this mechanism, food aid distributions will be carried out by UN WFP and allocations that used to be done on a monthly basis will now be done for three months at a time. This is expected to improve the food aid distribution in the region significantly.

In order to supplement the efforts already being exerted by NGOs in the areas of nutrition, health, drinking water, livestock, agriculture, sanitation, and community development, the new special committee on the Somali region needs to increase its support to non‐food interventions, in addition to overseeing the distribution of relief food, in order to better address the current food insecurity situation in the region and improve the level of humanitarian response.

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update October 2008

Update on Afar Regions

Both the sugum (February to May) and karma (July to September) rains were poor this year in Afar Region. The karma rains, which are the major seasonal rains for the region, were particularly bad, starting late and performing poorly. Because of the poor rains, regeneration of pasture is poor in most areas and crops were affected in agropastoral woredas (e.g., Abala) and the agropastoral kebeles of Semorobi, Argoba and woredas. Water problems are critical in some woredas (e.g., as Korea, Bidu, Berhle and Erebti) that are chronically water deficient and regional food security reports suggest that households are migrating to other areas. Out of 12 woredas that are identified as hotspots in Afar region, five are not receiving required nutritional assistance.

The downscaling of the UNICEF/WFP supported Enhanced Outreach Strategy/Therapeutic Supplementary Feeding (TSF/EOS) program, and delays of the PSNP food distributions by nearly two months, has exacerbated food insecurity in an area already affected by declining access to milk and severe water and pasture shortages. Although Afar region has also received some unseasonable rain in the last dekad of October and the first dekad of November, the quantity received was not significant and seasonal rains are not expected until March. Therefore, the region faces a long dry period before any recovery is expected. There is a need to provide the required nutritional support in all hotspot woredas to prevent further deterioration. There is also a need to improve the timeliness of the PSNP food distributions in anticipation of deteriorated animal body conditions during the upcoming long dry season. Livestock interventions, such as destocking, vaccination, and provision of livestock feed are also needed.

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