What We Didn’t Know About Gearing the Multigenerational Mobility for SG100 Gary Solon In Conversation Peter Ong ISSUE

Simulations, Exercises and Games Meritocracy: in the Time for an Update? F 14 E 6 1 Peter Ho Tiana Desker BR 0 UARY 2 2 / ETHOS is a biannual publication of the Civil Service College, . It aims to provide thought leadership, insight and context on a wide range of issues of interest to Singapore.

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ISSN: 1793-3773

ETHOS / 1 Contents Issue 14, February 2016

4 Editorial 25 Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s 6 Meritocracy: Evolving Social Compact Time for an Update? Soh Tze Min Tiana Desker 35 Ownership, Opportunity 14 Striking the Right Balance and Outcomes The ETHOS Roundtable with Interview with Laurence Lien Mr Hamzah Sulaiman, Mr Filimone Waqabaca and Mr Mohammed Mosly 40 New Strategic Capabilities 20 What We Didn’t Know About and Partnership Paradigms Multigenerational Mobility for Singapore’s Social Sector Cheryl Wu Interview with Gary Solon

2 / 49 Governance in an 66 Simulations, Exercises and Age of Uncertainty Games in the Civil Service Terence Poon Peter Ho

57 Embracing Complexity 75 Gearing the Public Service in Healthcare for SG100 Clive Tan and Aaron Maniam Peter Ong

ETHOS / 3 EDITORIAL

ingapore’s meritocracy is fundamentally rapidly changing public expectations S pragmatic. A small island city-state and market demand (p. 6). Observers can ill afford for any but the most have also asked whether the relentless qualified and competent to be assigned pursuit of excellence and merit-based to key positions that could exert a far- rewards — assumed to inculcate reaching impact on the national landscape. discipline and accrue optimal gains for Singapore’s survival and success has all — has in fact left some in society come in no small part from clear-eyed behind due to factors over which they policy decision-making and public have little control. These are questions service delivery free from gainsaying being asked not just in Singapore, but in by connections, prejudice or other thoughtful societies around the world, considerations than the broader public by governments keen to strike the interest. It is because we consistently put right balance between robust economic forward those who can best contribute development and a stable society with to the national good — whoever they a strong sense of shared purpose and may be — that we have been able to common wellbeing (p. 14). Even in the nurture a clean, high-performing public United States, a country known for its sector to support a thriving Singapore. powerful narrative of individual effort Society as a whole benefits when and achievement, new research has duties are performed by the most able found the actual level of social mobility persons available for the job. Sound lower than had been presumed (p. 20). policies, social development and better Singapore’s economic and social access to education have lifted many of policies, while founded on principles the barriers that might have prevented of self-reliance and effort, have also capable individuals from coming forward been mindful of the need to level up in the past. Yet economic as well as and broaden opportunities for all, while social needs have also become much helping the less privileged to keep up more complex and even divergent. with the nation’s growth (p. 25). With Some have argued that conventional rising affluence, the low-hanging fruits yardsticks of merit and competence of upward mobility have mostly been may have to be reviewed in light of harvested, even as a maturing economy

4 / Editorial and ageing population present new techniques. Toolkits and frameworks challenges. One argument being put for such broader thinking have been forward is that stronger social safety introduced; an organisational culture nets, supported by a more capable that is comfortable and adroit with these and engaged community sector, can approaches will take time to develop, provide much needed ballast to the through experimentation, simulations nation — allowing Singapore to take and practice (p. 66). These are areas bolder steps forward as it seeks to in which the Singaporean system has reinvigorate its economy, while still been sound to date, even as there is still taking care of complex social needs much room to learn and grow, ahead without being unduly burdened by of rising demand and in good time for growing costs. To do this, however, the the future (p. 75). relationship between the public sector and other stakeholders would have to I wish you an insightful read. be rebalanced (p. 35, p. 40). There are also calls for more comprehensive data to be made available to researchers, to Alvin Pang allow for better analysis and thinking Editor-in-Chief on the key issues. ETHOS There seems to be growing agreement that centralised planning in the traditional sense will have limited effectiveness in an age of increasing uncertainty and complexity (p. 49). However, if new models of governance have to be developed across all aspects of public sector work, from economic development to social policy to healthcare and beyond, they must also be sensitive to the nuances of their context; not all complex dilemmas call for the same tools (p. 57). The effective merit of a solution, not its provenance, must be allowed to take precedent. The best ideas, like the best teams, may be those that are convened and curated from across a diverse pool of talents and

ETHOS / 5 OPINION

Meritocracy: Time for an Update?

While the spirit of meritocracy is still important for Singapore, there may be a need to review our ideas about how it can be put into practice.

BY Tiana Desker was Deputy Head, Centre for Strategic Futures and Senior Assistant Director, Strategy Group in the Prime Minister’s Office. She has previously served in the Strategic Policy Office and the Ministry of TIANA DESKER Defence. Tiana graduated from Stanford University and is currently pursuing a master’s degree.

Meritocracy as an ideal resonates with societies around the world,1 critics have most Singaporeans. As a principle, come forward with several criticisms meritocracy speaks to fairness, of meritocracy as it is conceived and opportunity, and the promise of social practised today. mobility. In general, meritocracy refers to the notion that individuals are Mobility and Inequality appointed (or promoted) to positions One criticism levelled at meritocracy is that it on the basis of their ability to do the offers the promise of equality of opportunity, job, and not because of their family but does not deliver. In Singapore, the background, ethnicity, age, gender, end of colonialism and its institutional or national origin. In the everyday discrimination against non-Europeans experience of Singaporeans, however, brought about a “reshuffling of the deck”, meritocracy has come to mean many and consequently high rates of social things, not all positive. While it remains mobility. This was accelerated in the years an ideal shared by many, some questions following Independence by the emphasis have been raised about how well our on education: heavy subsidies for public meritocracy is functioning in practice, schools gave many Singaporeans of after fifty years of nationhood. humble backgrounds a chance to prove themselves and succeed. Today however, The Critique of Meritocracy some have expressed concern that the With the advent of globalisation, labour lines of wealth, status and cultural capital flows and rising social inequality in are gradually hardening:

6 / Meritocracy: Time for an Update? MERITOCRACY: THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT

n Singapore, a commitment to meritocracy first Merger with Malaysia in 1963 precipitated a I emerged in debates over the Malayanisation contest between an UMNO-dominated leadership of the civil service in the 1950s. In his in Kuala Lumpur committed to protecting the work on the Malayanisation Commission, special rights of Malays as bumiputera (or “sons S. Rajaratnam sought to entrench meritocracy of the soil”) and a PAP leadership in Singapore as a principle within the Singapore civil who advocated a “Malaysian Malaysia” whereby service. In the words of the report of the the various ethnic groups would have equal Malayanisation Commission:1 rights, regardless of their demographic status as majority or minority groups in society. This It is essential that, apart from statutory commitment to equal rights, opportunities requirements, every officer should feel that and consideration among the races became he can get right to the top if he is sufficiently a factor in Singapore’s eventual exit from meritorious and paper qualifications should Malaysia in 1965. not be a sine qua non for promotion. In post-independence Singapore, meritocracy was tied to the fight against a The hearings of the Malayanisation culture of patronage and the drive to build a Commission spoke to the systematic clean and effective public service. Founding discrimination in the civil service in favour Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew was adamant of British expatriates and against Malayans. that public servants should advance on the In this context, meritocracy was about basis of merit, not connections. An open replacing British officers in the civil service recruitment system and proper appraisal with capable local officers, effecting the systems were put in place, public servants transition from a civil service designed to were paid market-competitive salaries tied serve the interests of the colonial power to to performance, and poor performers were one designed to serve the citizen. exited. These practices continue today.

NOTE

1. Quoted in Irene Ng, The Singapore Lion: A Biography of S. Rajaratnam (Singapore: ISEAS, 2010).

ETHOS / 7 Having a wealthy background can give an income in the top quintile by the time you the upper edge from the very beginning they reach their early 30s; in contrast, through an expensive, private kindergarten they only have 8% chance in the US and education, and later on through expensive 9% in the UK.4 tuition, enrichment programmes that will benefit you when applying for school, and Defining Merit connections for good internships and jobs. What does it mean to hire, appoint and This is also played out when children of promote the “best” person for the job? alumni get preferential access to schools. One criticism of meritocracy in Singapore — Diana Rahim, Meritocracy as Myth2 is that there has been an over-reliance on academic credentials as a proxy for Official statistics show that Singaporean merit, particularly in the early stages of households in the top income quintile a person’s career. This narrow view is spend on average $175 a month on private changing. Deputy Prime Minister Tharman tuition and other enrichment courses for Shanmugaratnam has pointed out that their children. This is five times as much “Singapore must become a meritocracy as what the household in the bottom of skills, not a hierarchy of grades earned income quintile typically spends.3 The early in life”.5 When hiring fresh employees, suggestion is that this could entrench the public service and firms are placing the advantages enjoyed by children of greater value on the non-academic elements the wealth, enhancing the likelihood in their track record, seeking candidates that they can succeed and do better in life with a breadth of experience and the ability compared to their less privileged peers. to work in a team. Systemic discrimination could also go There is recognition that our commitment unacknowledged. Studies of the US job to meritocracy should be tempered with market have shown that for resumes of equal standard, one assigned a typically African- broader social values such as compassion, American name such as Lakisha or Jamal humility, and regard for the poor. has a 50% lower call-back rate compared to one assigned a typically white name such Maintaining a high degree of social as Emily or Greg.6 Such studies have yet to mobility will be a continuing challenge be conducted in Singapore, but unconscious for Singapore, as it is for most advanced biases (such as on the basis of age, ethnicity economies. Nevertheless, compared to or gender) could still be at play. many other societies, however, social mobility in Singapore is still high. A child born to parents in the bottom quintile of incomes has a 14% chance of attaining

8 / Meritocracy: Time for an Update? The need for safeguards to preserve Conspicuously wide income and wealth meritocracy in the workplace concerns gaps, instead of serving as an incentive, can not only ethnicity but also nationality. breed a culture of resentment, futility, and Many firms in Singapore have a multi- disengagement among the system’s losers, thus national workforce; in some cases, perpetuating their low status, heightening Singaporeans may be a minority within their sense of disenchantment and alienation, the firm. Some Singaporeans have and igniting a politics of envy. alleged discrimination by hiring managers who have a preference for Updating Our Conception foreign nationalities (such as their own of Meritocracy compatriots). Indeed, to address such Meritocracy as an ideal remains concerns, the Fair Consideration relevant — it guards against corruption, Framework was established in 2014 to discrimination, and unfair practices. help ensure that qualified Singaporeans However, there is recognition that our are considered for jobs fairly. commitment to meritocracy should be tempered with broader social values Meritocracy and Values such as compassion, humility, and In Michael Young’s cautionary 1958 book The regard for the poor. The individualistic Rise of the Meritocracy (in which the term impulse ought to be balanced with a “meritocracy” was first coined), he described restatement of the role of society in British society as shifting from one where enabling achievement and progress for advancement is based on birth to one where each citizen: it is based on talent. Young was concerned that people who attribute their success to We will build an open and compassionate their own “merit” instead of the accident of meritocracy. Maximise equality of opportunity, birth would become insufferably smug; while moderating inequality of outcomes … he described meritocracy as a system that We will provide diverse pathways of success; leaves the poor “morally naked”, because treat all with dignity and respect, whether they are judged to “lack merit”.7 it is white collar, blue collar. Today, there is once again a concern — Prime Minister , 20139 that meritocracy, with its emphasis on individual effort and striving, can engender a hyper-competitive and individualistic frame of mind. In the context of Singapore, Kenneth Paul Tan8 has written about the unintended consequences of meritocracy:

ETHOS / 9 Public policies in recent years have school-based student care centres; placed more emphasis on improving these especially help children who social mobility, reducing inequality, may not have a supportive learning and caring for the most vulnerable in environment at home. our society. Efforts have been made Other interventions help ensure to strengthen the Government’s that young people do not drop out of redistributive role and provide greater school early due to a lack of funds. In risk-pooling, to broaden the social Singapore, students from low-income safety net.10 Such policy shifts have, households do not pay school fees. in aggregate, begun to redefine how They receive free textbooks and meritocracy works in Singapore. uniforms, transport subsidies and are enrolled in a school breakfast Giving Every Child a Fair Start programme. Bursaries for lower- In a fair system of meritocracy, there income students attending university, must be steps to ensure that everyone can polytechnic and institute of technical have a good start in life, with a chance to education (ITE) have also been achieve their potential regardless of their expanded. The sum provided for background. This begins with early ITE bursaries is significantly childhood education. Acknowledging higher than the school fees: this this, the Singapore government has helps reduce the opportunity cost doubled expenditure on the pre-school of spending time in school instead sector, with S$3 billion slated to be invested of working. over the period 2013 to 2018. Pre-school Taken together, such policies help subsidies have been enhanced, such that maintain a higher degree of social households with incomes in bottom quartile mobility in Singapore. We cannot stop pay only S$3 a month for pre-school parents from sending their children education. There are also efforts to raise to expensive private kindergartens, standards in pre-schools, with scholarships nor from providing numerous other and training grants to help pre-school advantages to their children, from teachers attain relevant qualifications. reading with them to giving them good To help children from disadvantaged counsel. But we can ensure that the backgrounds keep pace with their public education system offers every classmates, a specialised early child a reasonable chance at success. intervention programme now supports those who enter primary school Many Paths to Success with limited English language or If meritocracy also implies contest, mathematics skills. The Government other policy interventions help reduce is also expanding the number of the uncertainties and anxieties

10 / Meritocracy: Time for an Update? A MORE INCLUSIVE APPROACH TO MERITOCRACY

s Singapore’s largest employer, the Public Service plays a key role in changing attitudes Atowards paper qualifications. Public Service Commission scholars today are drawn from a more diverse pool that includes polytechnic graduates and those who attended specialised programmes such as the School of the Arts. While in the past, the Public Service had separate schemes of service for graduates and non-graduates, there is now a single scheme of service, meaning that starting academic qualifications are no hindrance to career advancement, which is based on performance on the job.

associated with a competitive to take each subject at the level that education system and labour market, is comfortable for them. Singapore’s and provide assurance that there ITE and polytechnic system today also are multiple pathways to success. offers excellent teaching, nurturing For instance, many Singaporean skills valued by industry, representing parents continue to regard the Primary a real alternative to the junior college School Leaving Examination (PSLE) and university route. as a “make-or-break” milestone that would determine whether their While we still value self-reliance and children could enter a prestigious hard work, there has been a greater school (presumed to have a higher quality of education and outcomes). In acknowledgement of the need for response, there have been efforts to collective responsibility and care for make every school a good school, for example, appointing the best the vulnerable. teachers and principals to schools Beyond these policy measures with poorer student outcomes, to however, there is a need to change raise standards. The PSLE scoring social attitudes. Singaporeans ought system is also being changed to not to aspire to any single “best” create wider bands for grades, so educational stream or life path. that there is less competitive pressure Deputy Prime Minister Tharman surrounding this educational milestone. Shanmugaratnam11 has stressed the Greater flexibility across the various need to move beyond the soulless academic streams now allows students pursuit of academic qualifications:

ETHOS / 11 Not choosing a course just because you qualified There are some things which individuals based on your ‘A’ Level score or GPA, but cannot do on their own and there are other because it appeals to you, you feel interested things which we can do much better together. enough in the field to keep learning, to So we must shift the balance. The community keep progressing and applying yourself and the Government will have to do more with passion … It cannot just be about to support individuals. paper qualifications, whether a degree or diploma … We should encourage our Recent policies have leaned young to pursue their interests, and go for towards greater redistribution and real substance, whatever the qualification. strengthening social safety nets,13 including enhancements to public To underline this mindset change, assistance, universal health insurance, new initiatives such as SkillsFuture and significant new benefits for the (which offers training grants and elderly.14 Measures are also being subsidies to all Singaporeans) are taken to raise the wages of lower- signalling that everyone at every income workers, for example, through stage in life has the capacity to the Workfare scheme and the Progressive acquire new skills, and that help will Wage Model. be given to enable them to do so. Such major initiatives, all of which have a redistributive element, are being Moderating Inequality & Caring for funded in part through a more progressive the Vulnerable tax structure. They indicate the need for Meritocracy as a system tends towards the most successful in a meritocratic society unequal outcomes: for instance, to play a greater part in contributing to higher wages in a profession may be the wellbeing of all. In 2013, the most necessary as an incentive to effort expensive homes (especially investment and skill. However, there are limits properties) were subject to higher tax rates; to the levels of inequality that we in 2015, it was announced that personal find acceptable as a society. While income taxes for the top 5% of income we still value self-reliance and earners would be raised. hard work, there has been a greater It will take time for the effects of acknowledgement of the need for these policy shifts to be felt. It will take collective responsibility and care years more for long-held social attitudes for the vulnerable. In 2013, Prime to change. Singapore is likely to maintain Minister Lee Hsien Loong12 observed: faith in the spirit of meritocracy; however, as with all principles, the way in which it is realised will continue to evolve.

12 / Meritocracy: Time for an Update? NOTES

1. Inequality in Singapore — as measured by 8. Kenneth Paul Tan, “Meritocracy and Elitism the Gini coefficient — grew significantly in a Global City: Ideological Shifts in beginning in the mid-1990s, before Singapore”, International Political Science plateauing in the mid-2000s. See: Review 29 (January 2008): 7–27. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, “ESS SG50 Special Distinguished Lecture” 9. Lee Hsien Loong, speech at the People’s (annual lecture of the Economic Society Action Party Convention (December 8, 2013). of Singapore, August 14, 2015). 10. See Note 5, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 2. Diana Rahim, “Meritocracy as Budget 2015 Speech, February 23, 2015. Myth”, 4 April 2014, accessed 14 August 2015, http://poskod.sg/ 11. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speech at the Posts/2014/4/4/Meritocracy-as-Myth. Official Opening of the Lifelong Learning Institute (September 17, 2014). 3. Department of Statistics, “Report on the Household Expenditure Survey, 12. Lee Hsien Loong, speech at the National 2012-13”, September 2014. Day Rally, August 18, 2013.

4. Figures cited in Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 13. The new MediShield Life universal health “SG50 Distinguished Lecture”. See Note 1. insurance programme provides assurance for those who face major illness, as well 5. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, “Budget as those with pre-existing conditions who 2015: Building Our Future, Strengthening earlier did not qualify for health insurance. Social Security” (budget speech to Parliament), February 23, 2015. 14. The Pioneer Generation Package (subsidised healthcare and disability 6. Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan, benefits) and Silver Support Scheme “Are Emily and Greg more employable than (monthly cash benefits to seniors with Lakisha and Jamal? A field experiment lesser means) provide Singaporeans with on labour market discrimination,” greater assurance that their needs in U.S. National Bureau of Economic their later years will be looked after. Research Working Paper, July 2003.

7. Michael Young, “Down with meritocracy,” The Guardian, June 29, 2001.

ETHOS / 13 THE ETHOS ROUNDTABLE

Striking the Right Balance

Participants from the 7th Leaders in Governance Programme discuss the prospects for maintaining an agile and prosperous society that is also responsive to diverse and increasingly complex needs.

The ETHOS Roundtable was conducted by ETHOS Editor-in-Chief Alvin Pang in September 2014 with a group of participants in the 7th Leaders in Governance Programme (LGP) in late 2014. Organised annually by the Civil Service College, the LGP draws from Singapore’s development experience to offer practical insights into the fundamentals of good governance and effective policy implementation for sustainable economic development and social cohesion. Over the eight-day programme, participants interact with senior government officials and thought leaders, and visit key government agencies to understand their operating philosophies and values.

PARTICIPANTS Mr Hamzah Sulaiman, Permanent Secretary (International, Planning and Development Economy and Finance), Prime Minister’s Office, Brunei Darussalam Mr Filimone Waqabaca, High Commissioner, High Commission of the Republic of Fiji, New Zealand Mr Mohammed Mosly, Deputy Director General for Special Programs, Human Resources Development Fund, Saudi Arabia

On Challenges Facing Governments Today We need to equip our public servants Hamzah: The global context has changed. with the necessary competencies Globalisation is a big factor. Technology to deal with such issues, including connects people across the world in public engagement. This is quite new, an instant, and ideas are being spread especially if you come from an earlier quite easily now. What has happened generation of civil servants who need is that concepts of information sharing, to learn how to be comfortable being transparency, good governance and more accountable and transparent to public participation have now come to the public. the fore. Governments all over the world Another challenge is what I would call have to deal with this. Significantly, the “electronic games syndrome” — the new most governments and public servants generation wants answers in an instant. are not equipped to do this. That’s not how governments work.

14 / Striking the Right Balance Waqabaca: The challenges are magnified rather than assuming that government because the world is interconnected. People knows best and should dictate the way can now make comparisons about how everything has to be done. We need to they are being served in their country and bring other stakeholders along — the what other people are getting elsewhere. private sector, and non-state actors — For example, if a public service or social to help find solutions and then to move welfare scheme is available in one country forward together instead of simply raising but not another, people might ask for it issues or complaining. to be provided by their government. This puts pressure on governments who may Mosly: It boils down to three things for not be able to provide such services at this me: shifts in mindsets, communication and stage. So how do you equip civil servants leadership. The nature of each challenge to manage such expectations? depends on whether you are looking at I think the necessary changes in the government, or the citizenry, or civil mindset are two-fold. One is from the civil servants or institutions: whether each servants themselves: career civil servants of these sectors has good leadership, do not embrace change easily; we think whether they adopt mindsets that that we know the right answers to every are aligned with the way the world is issue that comes along; we are reluctant going, and whether there is appropriate to accept that any new ideas are being communication between them. brought forth. So if change and progress Globally, the old mindset of are to take place, there must be an overhaul prioritising “what’s good for me and my of this mindset in the entire public sector, family” is not going to work anymore. especially among those who have come up Increasingly, issues can only be resolved through the system. by working holistically, horizontally The second mindset shift is with regard and not in silos. But it is very tough to governments — towards governing with to train citizens to think like that. If the people, and with the people in mind, you have a sick daughter or she’s not

We should consider our definitions of meritocracy. Is meritocracy a matter of academic achievement and hard work? Or do we say that we want people to train from young to be good at what they do, to work hard for what they earn and what they deserve? Values can also be seen as competencies regardless of credentials.

ETHOS / 15 doing well in school, or if you’re poor, On Managing Diversity in Society it is hard to think systematically about Hamzah: Being connected has its the community or society. advantages and disadvantages. Technology Now that the world has started to look has amplified what used to be minority at the environment, people can start to voices across society. Policymaking is see how it’s going to impact us. But social getting more diverse and hence complex issues are not as clear as environmental — societies can no longer be painted with issues. Yet if we don’t take into account one brush. Trying to get everybody on the social aspects of life, and think about the same page is more difficult now. Yet them holistically, the way we think about you have to come to a collective decision the environment and pollution, they could and formulate policy so that people are just as well destroy us. generally not worse off. Trying to find a win-win space is difficult in diverse cultures and now the comparisons are Govern with the people, and with the to global benchmarks — not just to people in mind, rather than assume Brunei, where I’m from, but to the US or the UK and elsewhere. that government knows best and should This is why I think there has to dictate the way everything has to be done. be a gut-level conversation between governments and the governed. And there must be an understanding that One important point is to embrace governments cannot act instantly like — or at least recognise — the diversity they used to be able to, when they were in our societies. It is not good to have operating within an environment they a single generalised model. In Saudi set up and could control. There must Arabia, for instance, we are very be certain parameters established so diverse culturally from one region that society can come to a solution to another. And the majority of our that works not just for participating population are youth. Differences in individuals but also for the government cultural norms between communities, and the whole nation. and between generations, along with That conversation is getting more greater connectivity to the world, make difficult — both our bosses and the the challenge of governance one people are becoming more impatient. of dynamic, never-ending, rapidly changing complexity. But how do we Mosly: Each country and its government grapple with it? structure, population, economy is going to be different. For example, you have Singapore, with a system that is

16 / Striking the Right Balance agile, efficient and professional. And Society is not only about the winners. then you can have a country that has a legacy of and career This is where the idea of a caring government employees, for example, meritocaracy comes in — you have can get used to things taking a long to look after all of society, not only time to happen. This is not necessarily a bad thing: sometimes things will the winners. take time, and you are thankful for it, because you’ve discovered a lot Hamzah: The challenge will be trying to of mistakes along the way and the get people to understand the processes outcome could have been chaos had and institutions of governance. Some you rushed. have done it through schools or through To balance between both approaches, civic education. Once you have that we are shifting towards public-private understanding, I think there must also partnerships, and creating structures to be some leadership, whether it’s from create more agility and responsiveness. the government or from the community, But each country has its own context to forge not just a whole-of-government and will need its own elements to move approach, but a “Whole-of-Nation” ahead. There isn’t a one-size-fits-all partnership. Every nation has different model. The challenge is to find a way cultures, different values – I think in to balance between standardisation of this process you will uncover your processes, while allowing for customisation true values. What matters most to a and personalisation according to local society? This will inform the way it context, and remaining agile as a system. allocates its resources.

Waqabaca: I think the people need to On Meritocracy, Values and an be made aware of and to understand Inclusive Society the structures that are in place. Order Waqabaca: When I heard the term is brought about by establishing “meritocracy” emphasised over and institutions and processes. The people over again in Singapore, the thought need to know how issues are being that came to mind was whether you handled through these structures, are creating a two-tier society. The and what the trade-offs are; they best are being looked after, but what need to know what the government about the rest? I note that in Singapore can or cannot do. Of course, this does you do have programmes that try to not stop us from making continuous empower the rest, so that they can also improvements to our institutions and processes to keep up with the times.

ETHOS / 17 excel. Meritocracy has its role, but loyalty, passion, trustworthiness and you need to see how you can manage service orientation. These things those who fall behind. can be instilled and ingrained, like I would rather have someone a sort of cultural DNA; the rest are who is not technically superior but hard skills that can be trained for. who has very good values, because In the course of the next generation, the technical aspect can be acquired. academic credentials will be rated less With the right values, it will be easy highly. There will be different ways of to train them up. When I was with the delivering knowledge and education. Ministry of Finance in Fiji, which is one of the most sought after institutions to If we don’t take into work for, one of the key things that we look for in an applicant are his or her account the social aspects values. We don’t focus too much on their of life, and think about academic results because we know that once they come in, we can train them them holistically, the to become good central bankers. way we think about the environment and pollution, Mosly: We should step back and ask why meritocracy was adopted, and they could just as well consider our definitions of meritocracy. destroy us. Is meritocracy a matter of academic achievement and hard work? Or do I would say the focus in the future we say that we want people to train ought to be more on tools for behavioural from young to be good at what they and attitudinal analysis. There are do, to work hard for what they earn very good psychometric tools that are and what they deserve? If that’s the used in the private sector to assess case, then you shouldn’t only focus on people’s behaviours and attitudes — academic credentials but should also a psychological composition, on how look at human, social, behavioural, they deal with issues. To me, these attitudinal values that can be instilled. are as good indicators of quality as These values can also be seen as someone’s academic background. I competencies regardless of credentials. have met people with graduate degrees My grandfather never went to school from Harvard who don’t really fit in and he was one of the most successful the workplace; someone else with the businessmen in Saudi Arabia — he had right charisma, attitude and values a very strong set of values. Our system could do much better. recognises values such as empathy,

18 / Striking the Right Balance Hamzah: Meritocracy as a value has yet also be compassionate. Talking served Singapore well. But if you go to colleagues in Singapore, I think to the extreme, you may forget those you are at a crossroads in terms of who are left out. Society is not only trying to achieve this balance, with about the winners. You have to take recent policy shifts to take care of care of the weak as well. This is where those who did not benefit as much the idea of a caring meritocracy comes from Singapore’s success. in — you have to look after all of Systems — whether political, cultural, society, not only the winners. social or otherwise — inevitably change Ultimately, what we want to once there is an imbalance. If you don’t achieve is an inclusive society. But adapt, you will be left behind. Other that brings its own challenge, which people will take courses of action that is sustainability. How do you sustain ensure attention is placed on changes a stable, meritocratic and inclusive they would like to see. You can’t go society with a high quality of life, overboard in either direction because over generations? it is going to catch up with you later. You would need to continue to strike But if Singapore can find a model that a balance — to maintain efficiency achieves balance, it would serve the and effectiveness when you govern, whole world.

ETHOS / 19 INTERVIEW WITH GARY SOLON

What We Didn’t Know About Multigenerational Mobility

Better income data has uncovered surprising insights about income mobility and income inequality, says the noted researcher and economics professor.

GARY SOLON Gary Solon is the Eller Professor of Economics at the University of Arizona. Most of his research involves empirical analysis of labour market issues. He presently is concentrating on the behaviour of labour markets over recessions and expansions. Some of the other topics on which he has conducted influential research are the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status, earnings dynamics over the life cycle, and microeconometric methods.

Prof Gary Solon Income Mobility: longer run income. On top of that, spoke at the MTI- Lower but more stable than we are subject to a lot of reporting CSC Economics previously believed Speaker Series on error because if you ask people in “Social Mobility Thanks to better data and methods, a survey how much money they Across Generations: researchers over the last few years made last year, you often get fairly International have found that there is much less inaccurate answers. Such measurement and Singapore Perspectives” on intergenerational mobility than noise tended to obscure the patterns 27 March 2014. He previously thought. Inequality is that are actually there. Thanks to shared these views transmitted from one generation to having better data and analysis, in conversation with the next to a greater extent than was we now understand that we were ETHOS Editor-in-Chief Alvin Pang and CSC believed on the basis of the research underestimating intergenerational Senior Researcher of thirty years ago. persistence in the early research. Leon Lim. The belief among researchers However, my own research has thirty years ago that we live in very also found that intergenerational mobile societies is really a delusion mobility over the last three decades that came from having poor data. For seems to be fairly stable in the US. one thing, single year income measures This was shocking, because I had tend to be imperfect measures of expected that since inequality has

20 / What We Didn’t Know About Multigenerational Mobility risen a lot in the US, mobility would that much. They have enough going for have declined. But the data shows them, including their family wealth and otherwise. One speculation about connections. They have more buffers why this is the case might have to against misfortune. do with a great expansion in public programmes intended to help fight poverty, including providing more The question is: what can we do to services to children coming from level the playing field more, not in the poor families. So it’s conceivable that some of those programmes had sense of worsening the opportunities a sufficient impact to offset some of well-off people, but finding things of the opposite tendency towards that are worth doing for children from lower mobility. disadvantaged families. Intergenerational Mobility: Differences and persistence A brand new study by a team of not fully understood Harvard and Berkeley researchers in the Some work has been done on differences US, who have been able to get access in income persistence across the to a large pool of income data from the income distribution in the United tax authorities, has also been able to look States. While people were expecting extensively at intergenerational mobility a poverty trap, there seems instead to quite accurately down to the city level. be more stickiness at the other end: They seem to have found substantial a ‘wealth trap’ if you will. There are differences in intergenerational probably more rags to riches cases than persistence across cities. The study the other way around. Anecdotally, itself takes only an exploratory look there seems to be better safety nets at the characteristics that are most for the offspring of the wealthy. For correlated between city differences instance, although my father was and intergenerational persistence. from a poor family, I had the chance However, they have observed that cities to go to Harvard, an elite university. with more inequality tend to also have An extraordinary percentage of the more intergenerational persistence. students there were from a few elite Other particulars are more difficult private schools. Some of them spent all to understand, such as the correlation their time drinking and so forth, yet between declared religiosity and I have a hunch that those people are mobility, as well as the correlation not doing so badly today, even if they between intergenerational persistence haven’t changed their work habits all and the percentage of families in the

ETHOS / 21 cities headed by a single mother. One the 20th percentile and you’re also at can speculate wildly about these the 20th percentile, but because the correlations, but it is difficult to know whole income distribution shifted exactly what is going on. upward, your absolute material There are also substantial cross- wellbeing may be way ahead of country differences in international your parents’. persistence that are somewhat correlated with cross-country differences in Level The Playing Field: inequality. Norway, for instance, Some public policies are worth pursuing, has both less inequality than most but we need to be clear which other rich countries and also more So far, the only clear-cut policy insight intergenerational mobility than from this research is that we have less most other rich countries. Canada, a actual intergenerational mobility than neighbouring country culturally similar we believed. One argument that is to the US, has only a bit less inequality sometimes made is that we still have than the US, but much more mobility. a fair society because everyone has Again, one can speculate that there are the same opportunity to succeed — I some connections to how progressive think this is somewhat debunked by the public policy is in these countries, but better evidence on intergenerational these are loose relationships; you can mobility in the US. The playing field see the patterns but the precise factors is clearly not altogether level. There remain fairly mysterious. is a clear difference in the average prospects for someone from a rich family versus someone from a poor While people were expecting a poverty family. The other argument that has trap, there seems instead to be more been made is that even though the playing field is not level, it doesn’t stickiness at the other end: a ‘wealth trap’. mean public policy can do much good. The question is: what can we There is also a distinction between do to level the playing field more, absolute and relative mobility. not in the sense of worsening the What I have been referring to so opportunities of well-off people, but far is relative mobility, which is the finding cost-effective things to do connection between one’s position in that are worth doing for children from the income distribution within one’s disadvantaged families. We should be own generation and what the parents’ looking at particular public policies — position was. So you could have a and there has been interest in a wide situation where your parents were at range of possible things ranging from

22 / What We Didn’t Know About Multigenerational Mobility improving nutrition for pregnant women some other rich countries. There is and young children, to free school a sort of cognitive dissonance there. programmes and educational reforms, to more comprehensive healthcare and The Power of Numbers: so on. Do these initiatives actually Good policymaking demands good data make a big difference in improving In US research on intergenerational the opportunities of disadvantaged mobility, the huge breakthrough was children? How large are the benefits the creation during the 1960s of two relative to the cost of such programmes? long running longitudinal surveys — While it would be difficult to make a the Panel Study of Income Dynamics hard-headed cost-benefit analysis of and the National Longitudinal Surveys these programmes, I do think that is of labour market experience — which the next step. I feel like I’m in complete for the first time gave us fairly accurate agreement with what I’ve been hearing intergenerational income data from public officers and researchers for representative samples from the in Singapore, which is that we need population. The work that I and other to go on to the practical questions of researchers have done would not have what policies might or might not be been possible without these surveys. effective and worth pursuing. It is remarkable that a society that’s becoming so affluent is actually The point of empirical research in expressing so much concern about economics and elsewhere is to update our growing inequality. The impression I am getting is that there is more ‘priors’ — i.e. our beliefs and assumptions. concern here in Singapore than I hear about in the United States. A very However, it takes a very long large part of the American identity time to start a survey like that is viewing the country as the land of and then get an intergenerational opportunity — and it is in many ways. perspective. The survey has to have Certainly the United States is a country been running for at least a quarter where immigrants have come to seek of a century to get you there. This opportunity. But it is striking how highlights the potential power of much stratification there is within the administrative data — such as data country’s own income distribution. More from the tax system, or the pension recently, results from researchers like me system — which is being collected have been showing that actually there’s on an ongoing basis for programme statistically more intergenerational reasons. In the US, Harvard’s Raj persistence in United States than in Chetty and his team have been able

ETHOS / 23 to get research access to tax data: of progress on understanding these their work will result in landmark issues better here. studies that will make a big difference I have tremendous respect for for understanding income mobility the potential power of statistical in the United States. techniques and good data analysis One thing I’ve been hearing for informing us about what policies from researchers in Singapore is work in what ways. In fact, progress concerns about access to data. Of on just more accurately describing course, there are valid concerns intergenerational mobility, using about protecting confidentiality, but better data and sensible statistical there are potential gains to be made work with the data, can help improve from responsible research use of such our understanding of the societies data, as long as a mechanism can be we live in and let us learn more found to make this available to about how to improve them. My researchers in a way that does not advisor in graduate school put it compromise the rights of individuals. thus: the point of empirical research Access to such data is easier in in economics and elsewhere is Sweden, which is part of why I’ve to update our ‘priors’ — i.e. our sometimes collaborated with friends beliefs and assumptions. Sometimes in Sweden and worked on Swedish research corroborates what you data to look at intergenerational already believed, and it makes mobility and related issues. To you more certain of it: that’s also some extent, I’m surprised at the valuable. But in my own experience ability researchers have to get data I often expect to find something in Sweden that no one in the United when I start a research project but States would ever be able to access am stunned by the findings and have in our own country, and there have had to change my thinking. been important research payoffs to This keeps us honest and in the doing this. In Singapore, there are end we understand better what’s going probably opportunities to exploit on, thanks to the new evidence. That’s administrative data to make a lot how we learn.

24 / What We Didn’t Know About Multigenerational Mobility Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s Evolving Social Compact

Is continuous meritocracy the key to balancing economic integration and social cohesion in a period of slowing growth?

BY Soh Tze Min is Senior Researcher at the Institute of Governance and Policy, Civil Service College. Her research interests are in social policy research and the policy sciences. She holds a Master in Public SOH TZE MIN Policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

ETHOS / 25 The Singapore Story: Social Prime Minister put it: Mobility and Opportunities “It is dangerous to execute an economic for All development plan which has reference In a 2014 interview with the Gail Foster only to economic variables, important group, Deputy Prime Minister Tharman though these are… The creation of wealth, Shanmugaratnam pointed out that while which is what economic development is many think of Singapore as an economic about, is basically a simple process. All success, it is the “social integration of it requires is the application of modern our citizens and our institutions that science and technology to production, has fostered an unusual degree of social whether in agriculture, mining or mobility in our first four decades and that industry… What is more difficult to defines Singapore’s development story”.1 achieve is a social and political order This compact between economic and that enables development to take place. social strategies2 has been a remarkably Where a stable political system is achieved, consistent theme in the development of progress can be spectacular…”3 Singapore. In the first few decades after Consistent with this social contract, Independence, socially oriented policies public assistance was kept low to encourage — including the provision of public self-reliance and effort; individuals would housing, education and healthcare — work hard to support themselves and their promoted social stability and built up a families to the best of their own efforts capable, productive workforce attractive and abilities, while the Government would to foreign investment. Early successes “provide all its citizens with the same in fulfilling these public needs gave the opportunities to make the best that they Singapore Government a longer runway can of their available talents, … skills and to develop long-term, rational economic abilities to rise to the position for which strategies for growth. This association they are best fitted”.4 Economic growth of economic development with social and the steady rise in affluence soon wellbeing would come to underlie the buoyed up Singaporeans, who enjoyed relationship and social contract between intergenerational mobility in incomes Singaporeans and their Government in and educational attainment across the the years to come. As the late Deputy social spectrum.5

Those who have done well on merit New Economic Strategy and through the Singapore system have an A New Social Compact In the 1990s and early 2000s, however, obligation to give back to the society the Singapore Story began to take a that enabled them to succeed. turn, as the economy shifted to more knowledge-based activities, moving

26 / Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s Evolving Social Compact up the value-chain in response to the households in 2001, then-Prime challenges of globalisation, technological Minister Goh Chok Tong argued that change and other pressures. Since “… higher-income Singaporeans owe workers in a less developed economy their success in part to the others tend to start from a lower base, the who support our social compact. They returns from education and skills must, therefore, be prepared to lend a develop are easier to reap, as was helping hand to those among us who the case in Singapore’s early years. are not so well off. Only then can we A more advanced, knowledge-based remain a cohesive and stable society. economy generates more value, but It cannot be every man for himself. calls for higher order skills which For a person to succeed, he needs a yield greater productivity but are launch-pad from society. … In turn, more difficult to acquire. Workers with lower-income Singaporeans must these advanced skills, or who can call support the enterprise and efforts of upon networks, abilities and resources those who have the ability. We must that are not easily substitutable, are not resent those who create wealth, in great demand and can command for themselves and for Singapore.”8 much higher wages. Conversely, low- skilled workers in an open economy, This “paradox of active government support whose efforts can be replaced by for self-reliance” requires Singaporeans to automation or cheaper labour, will see their wages depressed and may retain their personal drive and dignity as require more support beyond what part of this compact. they can readily achieve through their own efforts alone. Mr Goh’s statements outlined a Policies continued “to ensure that new dimension in Singapore’s social every Singaporean has equal and compact, expanding its scope beyond maximum opportunity to advance the creation of fair opportunities for himself, while providing a social all Singaporeans to highlight a greater safety net to prevent the minority who sense of collective responsibility. cannot cope, from falling through”.6 Those who have done well on merit Measures were introduced to redistribute through the Singapore system have an Singapore’s budget surpluses back to obligation to give back to the society Singaporeans to enhance their assets that enabled them to succeed. This and to defray essential expenses7 such entails mitigating social inequality as services and conservancy, and utility and helping those who are less able to charges. Explaining new measures to progress.9 In an iteration of the social support the needs of lower-income compact of collective responsibility,

ETHOS / 27 and mutual support, successful seize opportunities elsewhere will up individuals would also be expected and go. Slow growth will not assure to contribute to society by helping us of a more equal society, as long as their less fortunate counterparts we live in a globalised world.”11 through philanthropy, volunteerism Financial assistance for low-wage and community service. workers and vulnerable households was institutionalised with the introduction Active Government of ComCare in 2005, and Workfare in Support for Personal and 2007. These programmes, along with the Community Responsibility Silver Support Scheme to be implemented While government efforts to temper in 2016, present a significant shift from inequality and sustain social mobility Singapore’s traditional policy stance, in gained momentum in the mid-2000s, which financial assistance is positioned they continued to be premised on as short-term and temporary to avoid healthy economic growth, seen as the eroding personal drive and responsibility. best way to create jobs, raise incomes Efforts to redistribute wealth has and provide more resources with which also increased in recent years with to provide social support. As Deputy adjustments to the tax rates of top Prime Minister and then-Finance income earners and the employers’ Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam put contribution rates to the Central it: “To be able to help the poor, we must Provident Fund — Singapore’s national first create wealth, grow our GDP and retirement savings programme. provide every incentive for Singaporeans Even though the Government has to strive and work to improve their lives expanded its responsibilities in social and that of their families.”10 support and redistribution, the social Mr Tharman also added that compact between the Government “The solution for Singapore cannot and Singaporeans has in essence, be to grow slowly in order to reduce remained unchanged where “there inequality. If we do that, it will only is active government support for hurt the people we are trying to help. personal responsibility, rather than Slow growth will make everybody active government support to take over worse off, but it will have the harshest personal responsibility or community impact on those at the bottom. Jobs responsibility”.12 This “paradox of active will be lost and incomes will fall for government support for self-reliance”13 those at the lower end of the workforce, requires Singaporeans to retain their while at the top end, those with the personal drive and dignity as part of talent or entrepreneurial ability to this compact.

28 / Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s Evolving Social Compact MOVING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE TAX REGIME

n Singapore, higher income households contribute to “the bulk of taxes” and lower-income I households receive the “bulk of benefits”1 (Figure 1). This approach has positive downstream effects on income growth and particularly benefits households in the bottom 20% by income. In the last decade, the real incomes of this bottom segment have grown faster than households in the top 20% (Figure 2). To ensure that the tax system remains progressive and fair, the Singapore Government will increase the marginal tax for the top 5% of income earners in 2017.

Figure 1. Share of Taxes Paid and Transfers Received by Singaporean Households in 2014

(A) Share of Taxes Paid by Singaporean Households in 2014 (B) Share of Transfers Received by Singaporean Households in 2014 40.4% 15.1%

12.3% 12.7% 11.5% 10.4% 9.3% 8.5% 8.2% 7.1% 14.8% 4.8% 9.6% 7.9% 5.2% 5.2% 6.1% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1%

1st– 11th– 21st– 31st– 41st– 51st– 61st– 71st– 81st– 91st– 1st– 11th– 21st– 31st– 41st– 51st– 61st– 71st– 81st– 91st– 10th2 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th 10th3 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th

Source: Ministry of Finance estimates, from Ministry of Finance Occasional Paper, “Income Growth, Inequality and Mobility Trends in Singapore”, Singapore: Ministry of Finance, August 2015

Figure 2: Cumulative Growth (%) of Real Average Monthly Household Income From Work Per Member by Quintiles (Among Citizen Employed Households) After Taxes and Transfers

45.7 40.5 38.2 38.3 35.8 2004–2014

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

Source: Ministry of Finance estimates, from Ministry of Finance Occasional Paper, “Income Growth, Inequality and Mobility Trends in Singapore”, Singapore: Ministry of Finance, August 2015

ETHOS / 29 NOTES

1. 2015 Budget Debate Roundup Speech by Deputy Prime Minister and then-Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

2. The first decile of households (by incomes per member) paid a higher proportion of taxes than the second decile. This arises because not all the households in the 1st decile are poor. This can be seen from the profile of the first decile households: 16% of them live in private properties, 13% in HDB 5-room and flats, 14% own cars, and 10% employ a maid.

3. The first decile of households (by incomes per member) received a lower proportion of benefits than the second decile.This arises because not all the households in the 1st decile are poor. This can be seen from the profile of the first decile households: 16% of them live in private properties, 13% in HDB 5-room and Executive flats, 14% own cars, and 10% employ a maid.

Maximising Individuals’ though they might have lower academic Opportunities Throughout ability compared to their counterparts Their Lives from lesser advantaged backgrounds.16 While Singapore’s meritocratic system This is because wealthier parents can rewards individuals fairly for their draw on their resources and networks efforts, “it will not on its own sustain to maximise skills and outcomes for social mobility”.14 There are signs their children.17 Furthermore, studies that social mobility for lower-income have shown that the increase in social households is declining, and that there mobility and the returns to investment is an increased correlation between the in skills tend to diminish over the long education attainment15 of parents and term.18 Ironically, countries that are their children. This has raised concerns more meritocratic and mobile can be that the starting conditions could expected to experience a greater decline become a significant determinant of in mobility down the line.19 social mobility, that initial endowments While notions of merit and how to of wealth, class, social networks and determine the ‘best person for the job’ parental investment could override continue to evolve, there has also been individual effort, drive or ability. a shift in policy emphasis towards a These concerns are not unfounded. continuous meritocracy that evaluates A recent UK study on social mobility people throughout their lives, not one revealed that 35% of children born where things are set based on academic to parents of higher social class with performance at a young age.20 Efforts to higher educational attainment tend raise the overall quality of pre-school to obtain higher earning jobs, even education learning support for vulnerable

30 / Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s Evolving Social Compact AUGMENTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS FOR OLDER WORKERS

he Central Provident Fund (CPF) – From 2012 however, the emphasis on job T Singapore’s national retirement savings protection was shifted to give older workers programme – has also seen policy changes nearing retirement greater assurance that their towards more progressivity in the past decade. CPF savings would be adequate. Their CPF Between 2003 and 2006, the Government savings were augmented through transfers lowered the CPF contribution rates of older as well as enhanced interest rates,1 and their workers aged 50 to 55 (who tend to receive CPF contribution rates are to be restored to higher seniority-based salaries) to ensure similar levels as their younger counterparts that they remain more employable, particular from 2016. during economic downturn or restructuring.

NOTE

1. To enhance retirement savings, the Government will implement a 1%-increase in interest rates on the first $60,000 of CPF balances for all CPF members; older members aged 55 and above will receive an additional Extra Interest of 1% on the first S$30,000 of their CPF balances from 1 January 2016.

children, along with policies to ameliorate The Future of Inclusive Growth the impact of entrance criteria21,22 and and Social Mobility key examinations have developed in In a column for the New York Times, tandem with initiatives (most notably Noble Prize-winning economist Joseph SkillsFuture, announced in 2014) to build Stiglitz commended Singapore for a stronger and broader foundation for “having prioritised social and economic life-long learning opportunities so that equity while achieving very high rates all Singaporeans can better themselves of growth over the past 30 years”.24 throughout their lives.23 These and Stiglitz argues that rent-seeking by other new approaches should help to the wealthy25 has prevented wealth shift public cultural perceptions of distribution and poverty alleviation ability and value that have a profound from taking place in the US, resulting influence on how inclusive our economy in inequality becoming entrenched. By and society is prepared to be, which in contrast, he lauds Singapore for avoiding turn will impact social mobility. such pitfalls by actively pursuing a

ETHOS / 31 balance between social and economic It is fitting that, in this context, integration, and through its commitment collective responsibility and mutual to preserving social mobility without support have taken on a greater compromising incentives to excel. This significance in Singapore’s economic balance, as reiterated by Mr Tharman and social stance, but the success of Shanmugaratnam,26 remains a key this new dimension of Singapore’s social priority in Singapore’s development: compact will depend on cultural rather than technical factors. As social values It’s impossible for our economy to have change,27 qualitative judgements of succeeded without effective social strategies fairness and equality will become just — most importantly, enabling people to as important as quantitative indicators develop their potential through education, of policy effectiveness in influencing the and housing policies that provided a sense public’s acceptance of public policies.28 of equity… But it’s also impossible for Normative discourse on what us to have experienced the substantial Singapore defines as success, merit and broad-based improvement in social and fair reward will determine well-being and life satisfaction without a what trade-offs and policy options vibrant economy — and the large increase will be most effective in equalising in real incomes, across the whole span of opportunities and sustaining social the workforce… mobility. In the long term, Singapore will need to embark on an iterative Nevertheless, this balance will process of engagement and negotiation become increasingly more challenging of these rapidly evolving markers to sustain, particularly in a small, open and issues. There will not be any and maturing economy. Growth is easy answers. expected to slow down even as social needs continue to expand, while tax burdens have to be kept low enough to keep Singapore globally competitive in order to continue to create jobs, lift incomes, and accrue the resources we will need.

32 / Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s Evolving Social Compact NOTES

1. “Singapore’s Lessons: An Interview with 12. The Economic Society of Singapore SG50 Tharman Shanmugaratnam,” interview by Distinguished Lecture by Deputy Prime Gail Fosler, October 9, 2013, accessed Minister and Finance Minister, Tharman January 12, 2014, http://www.gailfosler. Shanmugaratnam, August 14, 2015. com/-lessons-an-interview- with-tharman-shanmugaratnam. 13. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, The 6th S Rajaratnam Lecture (Fairmont Ballroom, 2. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, “Economic Society Raffles City Convention Centre, Singapore, of Singapore SG50 Distinguished Lecture”, December 2, 2013). August 14, 2015. 14. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, “Economic Society 3. Goh Keng Swee, then Minister of Defence, of Singapore SG50 Distinguished Lecture”, speech at the Opening of the Seminar on August 14, 2015. Modernisation in Southeast Asia at the University of Singapore, January 17, 1971. 15. These trends are revealed in Yip Chun Sing, Intergenerational Income Mobility 4. Goh Keng Swee, “Man and Economic in Singapore, Singapore: Ministry of Development,” in The Essays and Speeches Finance, January 13, 2012; Irene Y. H. Ng, of Goh Keng Swee: The Economics of “Intergenerational Income Mobility of Young Modernization, Singapore: 2013, Marshall Singaporeans,” YouthSCOPE, 1, 40-57, Cavendish International (Asia) Private Limited, Singapore: National Youth Council, 2006; pages 45-50. Irene Y. H. Ng, “The Political Economy of Intergenerational Mobility: Implications for 5. Yip Chun Sing, “Intergenerational Income Mobility Singapore’s Skills Strategy” in Skills Strategies in Singapore,” Singapore: Ministry of Finance, for an Inclusive Society: The Role of the State, January 13, 2012 and Ministry of Finance the Enterprise and the Worker, eds Johnny Occasional Paper, “Income Growth, Inequality Sung and Catherine Ramos (Singapore: and Mobility Trends in Singapore,” Singapore: Institute of Adult Learning, 2014): 142-171. Ministry of Finance, August 2015: 16–17. 16. “Well-off Families Create ‘glass floor’ to ensure 6. Goh Chok Tong, National Day Rally children’s success, says study”, The Guardian, 2001, speech at the University July 26, 2015. Cultural Centre, National University of Singapore, August 19, 2001. 17. Abigail McKnight, “Downward Mobility, Opportunity Hoarding And The ‘Glass 7. Ibid. Floor’,” UK Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission Research Report, 8. Ibid. London: June 2015.

9. Elaborating on this theme in 2013, Goh 18. M. Nybom and Jan Stuhler, “Interpreting Chok Tong highlighted a more compassionate Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility,” meritocracy where opportunities are accessible Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit to “the whole of society and not just the (Institute for the Study of Labor), Discussion brightest and most able” nor “those who Paper No. 7514, July 2013, 31. are lucky in their backgrounds and genetic endowments”. See: Goh Chok Tong, speech at 19. Ibid. the Raffles Homecoming 2013 Gryphon Award Dinner, July 27, 2013. 20. Rachel Chang, “Meritocracy here should be continuous: Tharman,” The Straits Times, 10. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 2008 Budget September 6, 2012. Debate Round-Up Speech, February 27, 2008.

11. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 2010 Budget Debate Round-Up Speech, March 4, 2010.

ETHOS / 33 21. Vincent Chua, “The Network Imperative,” 25. Joseph E. Stiglitz, The Price of in Skills Strategies for an Inclusive Society: Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society The Role of the State, the Enterprise and the Endangers Our Future (New York: W.W. Worker, eds Johnny Sung and Catherine Ramos Norton & Company Ltd, 2013). (Singapore: Institute of Adult Learning, 2014). 26. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, The Economic 22. Forty places are reserved for students with Society of Singapore SG50 Distinguished no familial or alumni connections in each Lecture, August 14, 2015. primary school. Children who gain priority admission into primary schools through the 27. Ronald Inglehart and Paul R. Abramson, proximity criteria have to be residing at the “Economic Security and Value residential address for at least 30 months Change,” American Political Science before registration. Review 88(1994): 336-54.

23. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 2015 Budget 28. Hoang Van Khanh Do and Sharon Tham, Debate Roundup Speech, March 5, 2015. Survey Of “Fairness Perceptions In Singapore, Public Policy”, Singapore: 24. Joseph E. Stiglitz, “Singapore’s Lessons for Civil Service College, 2014. an Unequal America,” The New York Times, March 18, 2013.

34 / Economic Development and Social Integration: Singapore’s Evolving Social Compact INTERVIEW WITH LAURENCE LIEN

Ownership, Opportunity and Outcomes

The community sector can become more confident in working with others to solve collective problems — but it will take practice, patience and leadership.

LAURENCE LIEN Laurence Lien is Co-Founder and CEO of the Asia Philanthropy Circle, a new non-profit initiative that convenes Asian philanthropists to learn, collaborate and catalyse new social interventions. He is also the Chairman of Lien Foundation and the Community Foundation of Singapore, Vice-President of the Centre for Non-Profit Leadership, and Board Member of the Lien Centre for Social Innovation at the Singapore Management University. Laurence was the CEO of the National Volunteer & Philanthropy Centre in Singapore from 2008-2014, when he founded the Community Foundation of Singapore. He was a Nominated Member of Parliament in Singapore from 2012 to 2014.

This interview was On the Evolving Relationship between This shows how much work there conducted on 10 January 2014 by CSC Government and the Non-Profit Sector is to be done to get us to the right Senior Researcher The Government has been talking about equilibrium; how much distrust there can Soh Tze Min, CSC Researcher Cheryl the community doing more for itself, be of the Government’s intentions. There Wu and ETHOS but the response has been mixed. I once is some perception that the Government Editor-in-Chief Alvin Pang as part of gave a talk at the National University of wants to disavow its shortcomings, or ongoing research and Singapore where I argued that we cannot to pass on the risk or burden of care. development of social sector leadership. rely on the Government to solve all our At the same time, civil society and the problems and that the community should non-profit sector are also not adequately just step forward and do more. When it equipped to step up to the plate overnight, was reported, public comments online because there has been a long history were mostly negative. The arguments of dependency on government support. were familiar: One, that the Government There are also questions around caused all these problems, so they should the relationship between the non-profit solve it instead of passing the buck and sector and the public sector in terms of two, that public officials are already paid the model of contracting, sub-contracting a lot to solve these issues. and so on. When the Government says

ETHOS / 35 it wants the community to do more, Taxpayers have a tendency to treat their what do we mean by that? What does government as vendors — there isn’t a co-creation mean in actual terms? Both sense of co-ownership, which is what sides have to be clear about the details we want to nurture. and how to actually go about it. Are we How can we break out of these really going to devolve responsibility, habits? There has to be a slow process of accountability and ownership to the genuine empowerment, and of gradually non-profit sector and to citizens, or does building up the capabilities of citizens and “Many Helping Hands” mean that you organisations in the non-profit sector. only want others to lend their help and There also has to be experimentation, resources? On the ground, people do with both successes and failures along see it that way — that the Government the way, as a way to gain confidence on just shows up and tells them what to do. what we can or cannot do. As citizens, This should not be the way forward. we can derive satisfaction out of simply participating and being part of the solution If people actually have to work together rather than being on the sidelines. A lot of the language coming out of the on a common solution, they can start public sector has to do with “consulting” to learn to be responsible with power. the public. Consultation doesn’t have anything to do with empowerment Having worked in the Government, because the decisions are still taken we know the fear is what happens when by the authorities. Indeed, you may you let go. People have different and feel less empowered after being asked sometimes narrow interests; they may what you want and realising you cannot not see the common good or the bigger do anything about it! Ironically, this issues. So quite often the Government could make people even more narrowly is fixated on narrowing the risks. But if self- interested. we don’t start letting go and are always Right now all the relevant relationships seeking to prevent the negative from are vertical and hierarchical; we need happening, we will also not allow the to build horizontally. Otherwise, people good to happen, and the good could are not engaging one another nor seeing far outweigh the bad. The alternative each other’s issues and perspectives. would be continued dependency, which They can only talk about their own is unsustainable. It also breeds an priorities. I strongly feel that people entitlement mentality which the public can be taught to make decisions aligned sector already has a tough time dealing with the common good and not just their with. The public can already be very own narrow interests. demanding of public service standards.

36 / Ownership, Opportunity and Outcomes If people actually have to work together advocate and capacity builder, particularly in on a common solution, they can start some sectors where the civic organisations to learn to be responsible with power. are still weak and look to the Government They realise they need to sit down and for answers. You cannot simply withdraw work things out with others. This is how all of a sudden, especially in a small Management Corporations in private country with few alternatives. Most of our estates do it — by and large, there is a non-profit institutions, apart from a tiny deliberative process to decide what to do number in specific niches, are far from the within the estate, and they solve their own situation in say the United States, where problems without having to complain to the their counterparts can refuse to take a cent authorities. But in HDB neighbourhoods, from the state because they value their the town councils are seen as responsible independence. In Singapore, they have for taking care of everything. I have been to work closely with the Government if a big proponent of empowering grassroots they want to take care of people’s welfare organisations to make decisions on the — because in the end, it is the Government ground — let them practise on smaller with the policy levers and the substantial issues and progressively learn to tackle financial resources. bigger ones. People have to build confidence However big philanthropy can grow, it through doing, not just through talking. will not be on the scale that governments Then they will also appreciate the work of can muster, because governments can the authorities more, when they realise it collect tax revenue. The total tax deductible is not easy to negotiate diverse interests. donations to Institutions of Public Character in 2014 was only one-sixtieth On Striking a Balance Between of the total government budget in FY2014. Government Intervention, Entrepreneurship State resources are still needed to fund and Philanthropy many programmes, especially in areas What is the ideal role for government? where there is market failure and public To do as little as possible: if something interest that no one else is providing for. can be done by the community or by But the non-profit sector can be where the individual or their families and it is innovation and experimentation take place. appropriate, devolve the work. The state The diversity of models can reveal ways comes in as the last resort. While best to solve different problems. practices ought to be industry-driven, Current services are mostly geared the state still has a role as regulator. It towards lower income groups, but there can maintain minimum standards and are in fact many areas where solutions for enforce the rules. the middle class are needed. For example, At this stage of our development, the 90% of beds in nursing homes run by Government still has a role in being an established volunteer welfare organisations

ETHOS / 37 are for subsidised cases; only 10% of beds organisations on the supply side, because are for fee paying clients, and the queues it is often easier to be funded based on can be very long. The social sector needs to very specific processes and outputs provide much better services for growing rather than outcomes, which may not societal needs across the entire range of always be entirely within one’s control. stakeholders in the population, and we As a training body, you can deliver a are not seeing enough of that. set of courses and measure the number People are not aware of where the of people who attend your courses, but potential is. Many social entrepreneurs how do you know if you have changed develop products and services that don’t behaviours afterwards? It’s risky if you really solve real problems either here or are only going to get paid if people apply in surrounding countries. We don’t need what they learn. But there may be some another app, cafe or gift shop. Instead, who can make such a model work, and we need a broader strategic conversation, that is in fact what you want. which involves not just the Ministries What might co-creation look like with the benefit of lots of research, data as we develop? It would feature a and perspective, but also the people who government that readily shares data are going to be developing solutions. We and research with the public — and not need to mobilise entrepreneurs to take on just data, but also sharing the issues and issues and understand them deeply. Right the responsibility for the issues, rather now, many social entrepreneurs that I than being solely responsible for taking have met have hardly engaged their target care of the problems. But now there is beneficiaries. They build the product first a tendency to be sensitive about data, before even understanding the problem even with statistics that are directly and the people involved. Furthermore, it is relevant to the organisations doing not just about big challenges — there are the work, for fear that it may make so many small- and mid-sized problems the public agency look bad. You have that need to be solved. Indeed, many big to treat civil society organisations as changes often build on small innovations equal partners if you are co-creating. along the way. It has to cut both ways: the non-profit Government agencies should look sector must also put what they have into a more outcome-driven model for on the table and be transparent about funding. You determine the results you their agenda and information. You also want, but don’t prescribe the way to have to be a bit open to different ways of get there, as long as the outcomes are doing things, which may not be in the achieved at the end of the day. It is very DNA of civil servants today. There may rare for our agencies to do this. But you also be anxiety about consistency and also need more enlightened firms and fairness — that public agencies cannot

38 / Ownership, Opportunity and Outcomes be seen to have a special relationship do you merely aggregate diverse views with just a few players. and then determine the final outcome. There is sometimes a feeling that Instead, you allow people to engage one there’s almost contempt for agencies on another so that, with more information the ground, that they cannot see the big and better awareness, their views can picture, and are not saying what the public mature and develop. Leadership means sector does not already know. But people having the confidence to allow some of who work the ground think about national the tensions to bubble up, rather than interests all the time, except they may have simply reduce the pressure and pretend a different perspective and different ideas everything is well. Such tensions can be on what the best way forward might be. important. Sometimes it is only under You have to give them credit. pressure that creative work can happen. But being so used to order and control, On Leadership and Public Engagement our authorities tend to step in at the Leadership is still needed to convene slightest discomfort to draw the line. people to face up to a problem and work at it. We often define a leader as being People are quite often part of the problem able to mobilise followers. If you know what a problem is, and know what the themselves, which means they also have solution is, then people follow you for to be part of the solution. So a leader your expertise. But in many contexts, this needs to get people to realise how they is inadequate, because the problems we face in the social sector are what Dean are contributing to the issue, and how Williams and Ronald Heifetz would things have to change. call adaptive challenges, not technical ones. People are quite often part of the There will always be unconstructive problem themselves, which means they comments and brickbats — there are also have to be part of the solution. So those who are looking for any excuse to a leader needs to get people to realise pull you down and they are not going how they are contributing to the issue, to go away. Right now, we are still and how things have to change. unused to this state of affairs; we get so Instead of sweeping things under the distracted by the noise that we cannot rug, adaptive leadership means seeing focus on what is really going on. But the opportunities to mobilise people to reflect best policy is to be thick-skinned and to and learn without seeking blame. It is also concentrate on those who are willing to about weaning people from dependency engage — to show that it is possible to on any one leader or authority who comes work together productively. in and does everything for everyone. Nor

ETHOS / 39 New Strategic Capabilities and Partnership Paradigms for Singapore’s Social Sector

Singapore’s social compact can no longer rest on Government alone; cross-sector partnerships may better address increasingly complex social needs.

BY Cheryl Wu is a Researcher with the Institute of Governance and Policy, Civil Service College. Her research interests include social policies, gender issues and the ageing population. She holds a Master’s degree in CHERYL WU Social Sciences from the National University of Singapore.

40 / New Strategic Capabilities and Partnership Paradigms for Singapore’s Social Sector Global Trends, Domestic However, it may be time to review and Pressures, Changing Needs recalibrate Singapore’s approach. Given Singapore’s economic success1 has the increasing volatility of the global benefited its people with steady and economy, shorter employment cycles, significant improvement in real technological displacement and wage household income over decades. Poorer depression, the bottom 20th percentile households have also been able to remains particularly vulnerable to benefit from Singapore’s economic prevailing economic trends. Evidence success through active government suggests that lower-middle income intervention and investment. Those households in the 30th–50th percentile, who are employable are given a suite of numbering approximately 22,940, are assistance in job search, skills training, also increasingly in need of help.2 The housing and childcare to help improve profile and needs of the poor and needy their livelihoods through employment. have become increasingly complex, They are further supported by volunteer rendering traditional methods less welfare organisations (VWOs) that effective in breaking the poverty cycle. address a wide spectrum of needs unmet by social assistance schemes. The Government is often the driver To be able to more effectively support of social support programmes and assistance policies, and is the largest Singapore’s poor and vulnerable, ongoing source of funds for the social services and contextually relevant research sector. Public officers design programmes and schemes that are devolved to the regarding their specific needs and many helping hands for implementation. difficulties is essential. As the primary source of social sector funds, the Government sets performance targets or key performance indicators Clearly, the nature of the partnership that welfare organisations are expected between public, social services and to meet to continue receiving funds. community sectors needs to evolve and This targeted approach of providing move towards supporting self-reliance. social assistance, with efficient segregation New challenges increasingly affect of roles between the Government and vulnerable Singaporeans in not just the social services sector, is known as one, but multiple inter-related aspects the “Many Helping Hands” approach and of their lives. has worked well in the context of an era where assistance needs were less complex.

ETHOS / 41 Resourcing the Social Sector be a manifestation of an underlying with Strategic Capabilities web of needs — employment, housing, health, behavioural barriers — that Leveraging Networks are deeply embedded and intertwined. If the public sector is no longer able to To address such interconnected needs, cater to increasingly diverse and complex timely and effective interventions may needs on its own, then moving towards best be achieved by leveraging on more a model of greater partnership and horizontal network structures3 that can collaboration with the social services facilitate access to information and and community sectors makes sense. feedback, help relevant players respond The Government will have to rethink quickly to changes and needs,4 and allow its traditional role as the dominant each sector to tap on the resources of player in social service provision, to the others. embrace a broader spectrum and scope Towards this end, the rotation of responsibilities. In addition to being of public service talent across sector a provider of assistance and services, boundaries could improve ground- and an architect of effective structures sensing and develop sense-making for services delivery, the Government capabilities, inform strategic planning5 should take on additional roles as a and support the design of more developer of capabilities, facilitator, comprehensive solutions to complex convenor, enabler and partner. social problems. Officers would also be better able to organise pragmatic Risk management capabilities will paths of action that draw on aligned interests and shared resources across become increasingly relevant to networks in support of social outcomes. social sector organisations, defined Promoting Social R&D not so much by profit-based Until recent years, efforts to develop objectives as qualitative outcomes. Singapore’s research capabilities have been disproportionately skewed in Part of the public sector’s role favour of the hard sciences. Despite as a facilitator should be to promote the heterogeneity within poor and greater latitude for collaborations vulnerable groups, and the complexity and partnerships, as other sectors of challenges they face, there has been assume a greater role in supporting a dearth of research on social issues the needy. The growing complexity and matters related to social services and diversity of challenges faced by in the Singaporean context. This has, the poor and vulnerable is likely to in turn, resulted in an over-dependence

42 / New Strategic Capabilities and Partnership Paradigms for Singapore’s Social Sector on studies from overseas. To be able to despite scarce resources, competing more effectively support Singapore’s demands and dynamic conditions. poor and vulnerable on their path to Capable leadership will be called for self-reliance, ongoing and contextually in key areas of corporate governance — relevant research regarding their specific strategic planning, organisational design, needs and difficulties is essential. change management,6 negotiation, communication and public engagement — Stepping Up the Social both within each individual welfare Services Sector organisation, and across the social Even as the public sector has to services sector as a whole. At the same transform itself to better engage with time, core management capabilities Singapore’s economic and social shifts, will also be needed to translate the social services sector must also strategy into the structures, processes restructure and renew itself. Given and operations necessary to realise the new operating context of complex social objectives in a sustainable and needs and scarce resources, the sector effective manner. must move beyond simply acting as the many hands delivering services. It must step up to a more comprehensive Capable leadership will be called for in partnership role, by harnessing its wealth key areas of corporate governance — of first-hand knowledge and ground both within each individual welfare understanding of their clients to co- create and co-produce better policies organisation, and across the social and programmes with the Government services sector as a whole. or public sector.

Strong Leaders, Capable Managers for Managing Risks in the Social Sector the Social Sector To date, the Government has taken If the Government is to play a less on the bulk of social risks by funding dominant role in providing social the provision of services in essential services, then leadership in the social needs such as education, health and services sector becomes even more employment. As the social services critical. Leaders will have to be highly sector is given more room to grow competent in managing and growing and assume greater responsibilities their organisations, strategising for the as a partner and co-producer, it will future, and marshalling resources from also be expected to take on a greater within and across their sector to deliver share of risks. better services to their beneficiaries

ETHOS / 43 NEW PARTNERSHIP PARADIGMS: EXAMPLES FROM THE UK AND CANADA

ingapore is not alone in its bid to redefine partnership paradigms towards a stronger social S sector. In response to a confluence of global and domestic pressure for reform, countries around the world have adopted a variety of new approaches in tackling social issues.

• The UK government introduced Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) to better meet needs within each UK locality; London’s “The City Together”1 and the “Poole Partnership”2 of the town of Poole are examples. LSPs are non-executive entities governed by a board of representatives from the private and voluntary sectors, senior public sector officials and elected members from the community. This approach recognises that no single sector can adequately meet citizens’ needs on its own. Through these cross-sector partnerships, service provision and strategy across a variety of policy areas (e.g. economic, social well- being and inclusion, labour market and community development)3 can be coordinated and guided by a common set of key priorities within each local community.

• In Canada, the Voluntary Sector Initiative (VSI)4 between the Canadian government and its voluntary sector has helped to strengthen cross-sector partnerships with the public sector, and focus on capacity-building in the voluntary sector. Jointly led by both the voluntary and public sector, Phase I of the initiative convened seven committees with equal numbers of representatives from both sectors to determine key priorities and strategic directions for the voluntary sector as a whole. Phase II of the VSI then saw both sectors working closely to implement recommended suggestions.

In this context, as with private or public accountability, which may sector companies, risk management directly impact its fundraising capabilities will become increasingly and resource pool. Nevertheless, relevant to social sector organisations.7 risk management techniques will Unlike the private sector, risk likely have a growing impact on management in the social sector the resourcing and management will be defined not so much by decisions that will contribute to profit-based objectives as qualitative effective VWOs. outcomes. These outcomes will include meeting the needs and enhancing the well-being of clients,

44 / New Strategic Capabilities and Partnership Paradigms for Singapore’s Social Sector • Canada’s Homeless Partnering Strategy5 (HPS) has also been lauded for its success in finding long-term solutions and assistance for the homeless through a community-based approach. Under this scheme, a Community Advisory Board comprising cross-sectoral stakeholders within the community is responsible for recommending projects to ease the housing needs of the homeless (e.g. transitional and supporting housing), while also provide supporting programmes (e.g. health and treatment, skills training etc.) designed to help these individuals out of homelessness permanently.

NOTES

1. City of London, “Local Strategic Partnership – The City Together”, http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/about-the-city/ working-with-and-for-others/community/local-strategic-partnership-the-city-together/Pages/default.aspx, accessed October 14, 2013.

2. Poole Partnership, “Poole Partnership”, http://www.poolepartnership.info/, accessed October 21, 2013.

3. OECD LEED Programme Forum on Partnerships and Local Development. “Forum Partnerships 2006 United Kingdom (England) Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs),” http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/37728868.pdf, accessed October 14, 2013.

4. Voluntary Sector Initiative, “Voluntary Sector Initiative,” http://www.vsi-isbc.org/eng/index.cfm, accessed October 16, 2013.

5. Employment and Social Development Canada, “Homelessness Strategy,” http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/communities/ homelessness/index.shtml, accessed October 16, 2013.

Making the Most of and improve the welfare of its residents. Community Resources Trust and reciprocity are central to the While responsibilities for social social ties that facilitate information provision have largely been borne by a flows, resources and expertise along vertical partnership between the public formal and informal networks within a and social services sectors, there is community. Social capital — including much more that the community at large both resources and relations inherent could do in supporting the social compact. within social networks at the individual A community with high social and organisational level — could be capital may be better at leveraging its harnessed in aid of social goals, by collective resources to solve problems convening resources and expertise8

ETHOS / 45 CROWDSOURCING FOR A GOOD CAUSE

n Singapore, a growing number of initiatives are harnessing the power of the Internet to I gather community resources towards the common goal of supporting the needy. For instance, Vertical Kampong (www.verticalkampong.org), launched in 2011 by the National Volunteer and Philanthropy Centre (NVPC), offers a platform for community engagement. It does so by drawing on community assets to address problems, strengthen social relationships and build social capital. Based on the Assets-Based Community Development model that has met with success in countries such as the United States, Taiwan and Australia, Vertical Kampong brings together diverse skills and resources held by individuals within the community to benefit others in need. This promotes informal volunteerism, and encourages members of communities to offer help to one another in goodwill and friendship.

for collective action, or by enforcing National Volunteer and Philanthropy accountability within social groups.9 Centre, has called for “bold experiments These behaviours are fundamental in community development” to help to constructive citizen engagement develop broader social capital towards and co-ownership.10 collective causes11 (Laurence Lien shares more on “Ownership, Opportunities Trust and reciprocity are central to the and Outcome” — see page 35). social ties that facilitate information Technology and the Potential flows, resources and expertise along of Crowdsourcing Technological advances have formal and informal networks within revolutionised information sharing a community. and gathering. The widespread adoption of information technology now allows With the increasingly multifaceted developed societies to harness the challenges faced by the poor and collective intellect and resources of vulnerable, the community should their citizenry to improve policies constitute the third pillar of the national and solve social problems. Several partnership supporting a renewed social countries have successfully launched compact in Singapore. In this regard, online crowdsourcing initiatives to Laurence Lien, former CEO of the collect ideas to meet a variety of needs.

46 / New Strategic Capabilities and Partnership Paradigms for Singapore’s Social Sector These include UK-based initiatives to challenge in such an endeavour may improve patient experiences with the lie in the difficulty of breaking away National Health Service,12 or to gather from existing modus operandi and suggestions on how the government old institutional pathways where the can reduce its spending. Government remains omnipresent in As one of the most IT-savvy most areas. and best connected countries in the As Singapore works towards more Asia-Pacific, Singapore is perfectly inclusive growth, its social assistance positioned to capitalise on the potential system is set to play an even greater role of crowdsourcing to support poor and in helping translate economic growth vulnerable groups. With public sector into quality living for all Singaporeans. support, new structures or processes While Singapore continues to “adapt, can be put in place to enable such adjust, restructure, and transform”13 initiatives that build or strengthen the its economy to remain competitive, the community’s role in supporting its poor nation’s approach to the provision for and vulnerable members. social needs should similarly evolve. Stakeholders across all sectors must Conclusion come together to develop new ways of Will Singapore succeed in redefining thinking, interpreting and structuring its partnership paradigms to better the means by which common objectives provide the resources to support its may be achieved together. changing social compact? The toughest

NOTES

1. Per capita GDP rose from $2,832 in 1970 to in the lowest 20th percentile reflected $65,048 in 2012. Between 2000 and 2010, stagnating growth, and even middle-income Singapore’s average household income saw Singaporeans in the 50th percentile saw a an increase from $4,988 to $7,214, with mere 1.3% increase in real income growth per an average annual growth of 2.1% in real annum. Calculated figures derived from the household income. Department of Statistics Key Household Characteristics and Household Singapore, Time Series on Per Capita GDP at Income Trends 2011 and 2012, published by Current Market Prices (Singapore: Department the Department of Statistics, and the Ministry of Statistics Singapore, 2013), accessed of Manpower, Singapore Workforce, 2012 November 4, 2013. (Singapore: Ministry of Manpower, 2012), http://www.mom.gov.sg/Publications/mrsd_ 2. The Gini Coefficient grew by 10% from 0.444 singapore_workforce_ 2012.pdf (accessed in the year 2000 to 0.488 in 2012. In the November 6, 2013). past decade, the real income of individuals

ETHOS / 47 3. See: Dorthe Pedersen and Jean Hartley, 9. Michael Hendryx, et al., “Access to Health “The changing context of public leadership Care and Community Social Capital,” Health and management: Implications for roles and Sciences Research 37 (2002): 87–103 dynamics,” International Journal of Public Sector Management 21 (2008): 327–339 10. Stephanie Farquhar, Yvonne Michael and and Rachid Zeffane, “The widening scope of Noelle Wiggins, “Building Leadership and inter-organizational networking: economic, Social Capital to Create Change in 2 Urban sectoral and social dimensions,” Leadership & Communities,” American Journal of Public Organizational Development Journal 16 (1995): Health 95 (2005): 596–601. 26–33. 11. “I suggest that we allow bold experiments 4. Bill Ryan, “The signs are already here? in community development to build social Public management futures in Aotearoa/New capital and engaged communities. Developing Zealand,” Institute of Policy Studies Working empowered communities may be inefficient Paper 11/01, April 2011, accessed July 1, in the short run, but are highly efficient in 2013, http://ips.ac.nz/publications/files/ the long run.” –Laurence Lien, Singapore ad021d9ea0f.pdf. Parliament Reports. Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth Community of Supply: 5. Karl E. Weick, Kathleen M. Sutcliffe and Fostering Engaged Communities. Session 1, David Obstfeld, “Organizing and the Process 12th Parliament, Volume 90, Sitting 16, March of Sensemaking,” Organization Science 16 15, 2013, accessed July 1, 2013 (2005): 409–421. 12. “NHS Patient Feedback Challenge uses online 6. Thomas Packard, “Leadership and crowdsourcing to collect ideas and support Performance in Human Services projects,” Department of Health, May 15, Organizations,” in The Handbook of Human 2012, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ Services Management, ed. Rino J. Patti nhs-patient-feedback-challenge-uses-online- (California: SAGE Publications, 2009): crowdsourcing-to-collect-ideas-and-support- 143–164. projects, accessed October 9, 2013.

7. Melanie L. Herman, et al., Managing Risks 13. Singapore Parliament Reports. Debate on in Nonprofit Organizations: A Comprehensive President’s Address (First Allotted Day). Guide (New Jersey and Canada: John Wiley & Session 1, 12th Parliament, Volume 88, Sons, 2004). Sitting 2, October 17, 2011.

8. See Monica M. Whitham, “Community Connections: Social Capital and Community Success,” Sociological Forum 27 (2012): 4 41– 457.

48 / New Strategic Capabilities and Partnership Paradigms for Singapore’s Social Sector OPINION

Governance in an Age of Uncertainty

How should public policymaking and service delivery adapt to an era of greater uncertainty and complexity?

BY Terence Poon is a Lead Strategist at the Centre for Strategic Futures, a think tank in the TERENCE POON Prime Minister’s Office.

Singapore has enjoyed a secure nation, Technological developments have a vibrant economy, social stability, and also contributed to uncertainty. The rise all the opportunities that arose from of social media has helped to galvanise good governance for many decades opinion and mobilise people to causes since independence. In the midst of this in unpredictable ways. As peer-sharing success, renewed efforts to look after platforms develop, the line between the aged, the underprivileged, families, producers and consumers is blurring, and other vulnerable groups in society challenging policy frameworks based on are helping to build trust, encourage this distinction (think, for example, of community spirit, and provide assurance how AirBnB and Uber have disrupted the that our people can live purposeful lives. hotel and taxi industries respectively). At the same time, there are signs The nature of change is such that even that the challenges we face as a nation as regulators find a way to keep pace continue to grow in complexity. Social with technological changes, they in issues have come to be shaped not just turn generate uncertainty by shifting by cultural differences, but also a clash away from the status quo. of social values. Public officers are also It is becoming clear that while our finding that Singaporeans care not only key principles of governance (including about the substance of policies but how long-held values such as meritocracy they are formed, and that they want and self-reliance) remain relevant, the services delivered not just efficiently ways in which they are applied through but empathetically as well. public policies and practices — as well as

ETHOS / 49 how they are framed and communicated they touch, variously thinks the elephant — must adapt to an environment of is a pipe, rope or pillar. They only realise greater complexity and uncertainty. that it is an elephant when they take What should the public sector consider into account different perspectives to in making this transition? form a big picture. The complexity of today’s public Delivery of Policy and Services issues and diverse needs means societies Citizens form impressions of governments must harness different perspectives through their experience of public and experiences in order to address services. Today, much more is expected prevailing challenges. While good of service providers: as commercial service design and implementation can technologies offer greater service enhance delivery, they can only go so personalisation and responsiveness to far when different stakeholders have customers, citizens increasingly expect different or even conflicting interests. similar convenience from government A new consensus about the roles of services as well. different stakeholders in government, As the focus of public service delivery business and community needs to be around the world shifts to user needs developed. Public sector systems must (instead of agency priorities), citizen- therefore be able to integrate different centred policy design and implementation perspectives; they must also facilitate have become watchwords. Where one size more collaboration among agencies, and no longer fits most, the public sector is embrace more diverse types of public now pressed to tailor solutions for different sector leadership. citizen groups, while maintaining fairness and equity, within the constraints of finite Roles and Relationships or even shrinking resources. Public officers Traditionally, the state has played the will need to develop the capacity and the role of regulator and enforcer, providing right tools for sense-making, listening and security to communities, legal certainty empathising. They will need to acquire the to businesses, and crucial public services wisdom to handle exceptions appropriately, such as education and transport. In the while ensuring that customisation efforts 1980s, some states began to use market remain sustainable for public coffers. mechanisms to encourage efficient service delivery, for example, by corporatising Systems that Can Operate agencies that provided water, power, in Uncertainty and healthcare. In the first instance, the In the tale of the blind men and the state’s main leverage was control. In the elephant, each blind man touches one second, it was competition. part of the beast and, depending on what

50 / Governance in an Age of Uncertainty Governing through control and this, delivery of public value ought to competition works well when policies be “co-produced” and “co-owned”.1 are straightforward, but often fall short While the currency of control is power, when policy objectives are complex. For and that of competition is money, the instance, a government could optimise currency of collaboration is relationships. efficiency by contracting private companies “Co-ownership” means that the public to deliver food to the vulnerable elderly sector must function more as a convenor in the quickest time at the lowest cost. and facilitator, not just as an enforcer of While this would fill stomachs, it would rules or principles which contracts with not address other priorities in looking subordinate agents. In an increasingly after the elderly, such as the need for diverse society, governments need to social interaction. move towards enlarging common spaces, Beyond control and competition, building consensus and making society collaboration allows a government to not ever more inclusive. Such spaces will only make better sense of the perspectives allow people to understand different, of diverse stakeholders, but also to harness even competing, perspectives. In so a society’s many talents in order to create doing, they can help societies to manage more public value than the state can intractable differences, and benefit from deliver on its own. Collaboration also healthy debate and a diversity of ideas. builds civic strength, teaching diverse people to work with each other using In a more politicised environment, clarity resources they already have, such as and commitment to the values of public local knowledge, to achieve common goals. Collaboration also helps make a service will help ensure the resilience of society more resilient, by diminishing our institutions of governance. reliance on one central node — the state — for security or social aid. Amidst these shifts, the Public Jocelyne Bourgon, former Clerk of the Service must continue to be professional Privy Council and Secretary to the Cabinet and uphold the rule of law without of Canada, has argued that governments fear or favour. In a more politicised need to achieve both public results (i.e. environment, clarity and commitment policy aims) and civic results (i.e. an to the values of public service will help enhanced capacity in society to contribute ensure the resilience of our institutions to public outcomes). Governments that of governance. concentrate on the first more than the second may find the citizenry Structure and Organisation becoming more cynical, dependent, Diversity helps in grappling with and less resilient over time. To avoid uncertainty, but consistency and

ETHOS / 51 coordination are necessary to ensure affordable housing). What is optimal alignment with policy objectives. at the sub-systems level can lead to The public sector must strike an suboptimal outcomes at the systems appropriate balance. level. This is most apparent in complex, cross-cutting challenges (e.g. climate While the currency of control change or population development), is power, and that of competition is demonstrating the need for coordinating mechanisms across ministries and money, the currency of collaboration statutory boards. is relationships. Second, agencies have increasingly outsourced development and service First, at the national level, the delivery to private companies in order Government has set up specialised to achieve efficiency gains. However, statutory boards, each competent in outsourcing risks the erosion of certain their domain and focused on policy professional capabilities, for example in implementation in their respective engineering and project management, realms, boosting efficiency. But this has within the public sector as a whole. also brought with it challenges. When Savings in time and money may well each agency tries to optimise its own come at the expense of institutional policy objectives (such as sustaining capacity in infrastructural development, economic growth through immigration), management, and regulation. it may hinder others (such as ensuring Third, the government cannot adequate transport infrastructure and outsource public accountability. Any

ADDRESSING CROSS-AGENCY ISSUES THROUGH NEW STRUCTURES

t can often be challenging to solve problems that cut across agency mandates, because Iof the vertical nature of reporting. Cross-domain issues can take a long time to address. This was one reason the Municipal Services Office (MSO) was established in 2014. It brings together 11 agencies to address cross-domain municipal issues. For example, certain agencies now take the lead on issues, such as public greenery and cleanliness. The MSO has also developed processes to help agencies handle public requests for footpaths, street lamps and other local infrastructure that cut across their boundaries.

52 / Governance in an Age of Uncertainty BROADENING PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERSHIP

ithin the Singapore Public Service, the Public Service Leadership Programme (PSLP) Wnurtures experts to become leaders in the economy, infrastructure and environment, social, security and central administration sectors. They complement generalists in the Administrative Service.

The Public Service will need to consider how it can build on these efforts in: • Recruitment, e.g. headhunting mid-career professionals from the private sector. • Capabilities development, e.g. nurturing the instinct to work across networks and experiment afresh as public entrepreneurs. • Accommodating diversity in appraisal, e.g. mitigating human tendencies to rate highly those who are similar.

service or administrative lapses by private They should be: contractors commissioned to develop or deliver key public services will hurt its i. comfortable with ambiguity and credibility — even if the relevant institutions tensions, to grapple with the paradoxes have been corporatised, privatised or that exist in complex challenges; devolved from the Public Service. ii. adept at communicating with and Public Sector Leadership engaging diverse stakeholders; While public sector leaders must continue to uphold the values of integrity, service, iii. transformation-savvy, and thus excellence and commitment to the long- able to provide clarity, assurance, term good of Singaporeans, the nature encouragement, and motivation to of their leadership should adapt to more drive organisational change; and complex needs. Leadership teams should comprise iv. capable of governing networks, individuals with a diverse set of qualities which involves balancing and skills who also possess key traits accountability, risk, and trust, that will allow them to be effective in and also building relationships the face of uncertainty and complexity. through empathy and reciprocity.

ETHOS / 53 Diverse teams of complexity-ready In order for change to take hold in any leaders will be needed at all levels, so institution, its underlying culture — the that good, responsive decisions can principles by which it operates and the be made quickly on the front-lines, narratives by which it understands its without over-reliance on a thin layer own purpose — have to be addressed. of top decision-makers far up the chain of command. Governance Principles Besides generalists, agencies While the principles by which Singapore will also need specialists and public is governed are regularly reviewed entrepreneurs — those with the gumption (most recently in 2004), they have to experiment with new ways of working, proven remarkably robust as a set of partner across sectors and step around values by which to steer the ship of state hurdles. Singapore’s Public Service will through a rapidly changing landscape need to recruit more widely: from those over the past five decades. who show academic promise early in life, to mid-career professionals and Singapore’s Principles of managers who bring diverse worldviews Governance are: from their varied experiences. The Public Service will need • “Leadership is Key” — providing individuals with different ways of long-term vision, doing what is thinking. Cognitive diversity improves right rather than what is popular, decision making because it offers a being pragmatic and eschewing variety of approaches to viewing a corruption; complex problem. That is why some private companies and governments • “Reward for Work, Work for Reward” around the world are nurturing diversity. — encouraging self-reliance not The Public Service Commission of welfare, and assigning people to jobs Canada, for example, is committed to based on ability and performance; building a Public Service that reflects the diversity of that country; they • “A Stake for Everyone, Opportunities believe this diversity is necessary for for All” — fostering a sense of government to be strong, dynamic, belonging through emotional innovative, and excellent.2 ties and community participation;

New Operating Assumptions • “Anticipate Change, Stay Relevant” The best systems will only work if the — organising government in better people who operate them understand ways as well as building flexibility and agree with the reasons for changes. and adaptability in thinking.

54 / Governance in an Age of Uncertainty Nevertheless, the ways in which these forging both a shared sense of our past principles are applied in practice must and a common vision of the future. keep up with changing circumstances. For decades, the prevailing narrative The effects of globalisation (and sharp underlying the Singapore story was disruptions such as the 2008–2009 one of profound vulnerability: we were global financial crisis), for example, the “little red dot”, bereft of natural have shown that individual effort and resources and a hinterland after our self-reliance alone might no longer be ejection from Malaysia. Perhaps ironically, enough to ensure a decent living in a Singapore’s success and stability over rapidly changing economic landscape. In the past fifty years has rendered this 2015, Deputy Prime Minister Tharman narrative less resonant: through Our Shanmugaratnam3 pointed out: Singapore Conversation, Singaporeans have signalled their desire for a nation No government can have a hands-off strategy, which emphasises opportunities, purpose, where people are left to fend for themselves. assurance, hope, community spirit, Neither should we have hand-outs all along and trust.4 Security did not feature the way, because that just takes the dignity prominently in our people’s aspirations. out of people. Let’s instead keep providing Yet in the near future, technological, hand-ups, especially for those who start with economic and social change may cast less, helping them develop their strengths real uncertainty on the good life and have a real chance of doing well. Singaporeans have come to expect.5 We need a new overarching narrative Policies in recent years to support that encompasses vulnerability and more inclusive growth and sustain aspiration, and is inclusive of the variety social mobility show that Singapore’s of perspectives that our people hold. governance approaches are adapting to It is worth noting that any narrative a changing context. The Government we espouse must be consistent with should communicate these adaptations how Singaporeans experience public clearly and empathetically so that the policy and service delivery in order to citizenry can understand the intent be credible. behind these adaptations and make sense of the changing circumstances Conclusion that undergird the need to adapt. Confronted with a future of increasing complexity and uncertainty, Singapore’s Guiding Narratives public sector will need to strike a The stories we tell ourselves can be balance between harnessing diversity powerful in shaping outcomes and for effectiveness, and ensuring

ETHOS / 55 consistency and efficiency. It will change. As a small, multicultural need a greater variety of leaders, who city-state, our strength lies in our can help our institutions navigate nimbleness and adaptability; our change and uncertainty, at all resilience derives from side-stepping levels. We must also adapt how key challenges, with the imaginative principles such as meritocracy and resources to find multiple solutions self-reliance are applied, and refine to whatever challenges may confront the narratives we adopt when crafting us in the age of uncertainty. and communicating policies. Diversity can help societies come to terms with and make sense of complex

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author thanks Wan Chng (Assistant Manager, Institute of Public Sector Leadership, Civil Service College), Vernie Oliveiro (Senior Researcher, Institute of Governance and Policy, Civil Service College) and Tan Li Sheng (former Senior Assistant Director, Centre for Strategic Futures) who provided substantial content and revisions to this essay.

NOTES

1. Jocelyne Bourgon, “The New Synthesis: 4. Reflections of Our Singapore Conversation Preparing Government for the Challenges of (Singapore: Our Singapore Conversation the 21st Century”, Ethos, Issue 10 (October Secretariat, 2013): 4. 2011):14–20. 5. The class of the 9th Leaders in Administration 2. Public Service Commission of Canada, Programme, a milestone programme for “Merit – Achieving Representativeness”, senior public sector leaders, developed March 2008, accessed September 3, 2015, a narrative based on “Hope, Heart, and http://www.psc-cfp.gc.ca/plcy-pltq/eead- Home”, to which Emeritus Senior Minister eeed/rprt/rprs/mar-lmar-eng.htm. Goh Chok Tong added a cautionary note that the narrative of “fear” was still necessary. 3. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Economic Society of Singapore SG50 Distinguished Lecture, August 14, 2015

56 / Governance in an Age of Uncertainty OPINION

Embracing Complexity in Healthcare

In a complex environment where centralised planning has limited effectiveness, simple rules may allow the system to evolve organically towards shared goals.

BY Dr Clive Tan is currently with the World Health Organization, working on health systems strengthening, health policy and healthcare quality. He has a Master’s degree in Public Health from Johns Hopkins CLIVE TAN Bloomberg School of Public Health and is a Fellow of the Academy of Medicine Singapore (College of Public Health and Occupational Physicians). He has served in clinical and administrative roles in these healthcare AND institutions: the Ministry of Health, Singapore Armed Forces’ Medical Corps and the National Healthcare Group.

AARON MANIAM Aaron Maniam is Director, Industry Division at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, where he oversees policy and regulation of the manufacturing, exportable services and tourism sectors, as well as long-term economic strategy. He served previously as Director of the Institute of Public Sector Leadership at the Civil Service College, founding Head of the Centre for Strategic Futures, and a diplomat with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Outside of work, he is a published poet and active in youth leadership, community service and inter-faith dialogue projects.

Regarding Complexity Complex phenomena, however, Complexity derives from the Latin plexus, consist of elements that are not entirely meaning “interwoven”. Most phenomena knowable ex ante, predictable or within can be classified into multiple levels our control — as such, there can be of complexity. Simple phenomena are no ‘cookbook’ for managing them; usually straightforward, with predictable they may be modelled or simulated, linear cause-and-effect relations, for but they cannot be fully controlled. example, the collisions of billiard balls Complex tasks (such as parenting, on a pool table. Complicated phenomena where what works for one child may not involve numerous components and steps; be applicable to another) can only be much like a recipe for baking a cake, approached through guiding principles if all the ingredients are available and and ongoing improvisation until they the given steps followed correctly in a are complete. controlled environment, the outcome Governments, economies, and is predictable and replicable. even families are some human systems

ETHOS / 57 we know intuitively as complex: they and lifestyle changes at the very least involve multiple entities with different borders on being complex (i.e., patients roles, functions, agendas and decision- react and behave differently, and have making processes, a diverse network of differing attitudes towards health). At a interactions, an evolving environment, systems-level, trying to plan and prepare and multiple concurrent activities. These for ageing-related health issues against characteristics lead to a common property a backdrop of a greying population of complex systems: unpredictability is several orders of magnitude more in the interactions and outcomes of complex than managing an individual the entities and the system as a whole. patient. Across the entire system, there This is a case of the whole system being are simply too many factors that may greater than the sum of its parts. influence the future (for example, new treatment modalities, shifting attitudes towards health and ageing, uptake and Health care is the most difficult, efficiency of preventive health services, emerging diseases, changing healthcare chaotic and complex industry to financing models, etc.), operating at manage today. multiple levels, for any mid- to long- term prediction and planning to hold Peter Drucker, on hospital management, perfectly true. Managing in the Next Society (2002) Such categorisations only take into account the service delivery aspects of healthcare. The level of complexity Complexity in Healthcare increases even further when we consider To state that healthcare is complex is other aspects, such as the following: ironically to oversimplify the issue. Healthcare is a spectrum, encompassing • Healthcare financing. Economists issues that range from the simple to have highlighted healthcare as a the complex. A blocked artery in the sector in which the free market heart can cause a heart attack — that approach does not work well, due is a straightforward cause-effect to information asymmetry, adverse relationship, classifiable as simple. selection, entry barriers, monopolies, The procedure employed to unblock oligopolies and other market failures. the blocked artery) is complicated, and In some cases, actions to correct for should only be attempted by a trained market imperfections may generate specialist. The subsequent treatment unforeseen effects from various of the patient through medication agents in the system which could

58 / Embracing Complexity in Healthcare HOW COMPLEX IS HEALTHCARE?

Complexity is embedded in many different levels of healthcare. Practitioners have developed mechanisms to manage these challenges.

Dimensions of Complexity Management Mechanisms

Certain medications do not work the same To maintain certain medications at effective levels for everyone. Individual differences in biology in the bloodstream, a patient has to undergo regular and lifestyle make prescribing appropriate blood tests to calibrate the medication dosage and medication both an art and a science. dosing regimen. The principle is to monitor as often

Biological as necessary and perform micro-adjustments as the situation requires.

Healthcare providers commonly referred to A medical team often has to prioritise a complex patients with multiple medical conditions patient’s numerous conditions. Frequently, several of requiring multiple treatment regimens as the conditions have to be treated concurrently while “complex patients”. Any one or a combination monitoring the patient’s response, while staying alert Leadership at all levels Personal of their multiple conditions could cause their to any interactions between the diseases, as well as health to deteriorate. between the various treatments.

Community health programmes require Recognising that good results can only be achieved different healthcare providers, each with when all entities in the system work together, their own capabilities and priorities, to work programme indicators must be designed to measure together. Getting partner organisations outcomes rather than processes. At the programme to agree on mutual roles and collaborate level, partners have to co-develop work processes

Community effectively can be challenging. and agree on measures of success. Funding mechanisms must also be re-aligned to fit more team-based work processes.

Capacity planning for healthcare (including Healthcare systems are often “too big to fail”, infrastructure and manpower) can be daunting. so parallel systems are developed to increase The training of medical professionals requires their robustness. Such systems provide fault long lead times, while numerous factors, both tolerance. Different experiments can take place known and unknown, can affect the accuracy simultaneously to uncover new solutions. At the of projections and predictions. policy level, futures-thinking and scenario- planning are often used. While unlikely to be Ecological perfect, the process of planning is vital, not least by establishing a common understanding of the situation, its challenges, and shared goals for the future.

ETHOS / 59 even end up working against the will not explain why a solution works original intent of the intervention. in one situation but not in another. The use of such an approach to explain and • Behavioural dynamics in healthcare. simplify the current challenges facing Poorly designed healthcare systems healthcare is tempting but it is easy to can generate perverse incentives forget that the manner in which entities for providers and lead to over- work more often than not depends on servicing of patients. Medical the environment in which they operate. insurance can also lead to moral For instance, it is not enough to have hazard and a tendency for patients the correct people come together to to over-consume healthcare. work on a planned solution — success “Affect heuristics” mean that calls for an understanding of how these patients may make less rational and people work together to find the correct highly unpredictable healthcare solution. The quality of relations between decisions (e.g. when receiving bad entities in a system matters. medical news). Acknowledging that healthcare is complex, along different dimensions, • Healthcare as a nested system. presents planners with new perspectives Healthcare systems are interlinked and opportunities. Healthcare practitioners, with other equally complex systems planners and leaders should understand in society. Personal values and that beyond technical skills and book culture, political rivalries and knowledge, their competence in a complex agendas, scientific developments, world is a function of culture, which academic competition are often is in turn a function of relationships. taken as orthogonal to each other, This may be counter-intuitive for but in fact often contribute ripples many institutions and policymakers and knock-on effects throughout accustomed to clear answers and society and its nested systems. concise bullet points. Humility is required to recognise that the success Why View Healthcare Through a of an initiative is dependent not just on Complexity Lens? having the right solution, but also the Planners have typically used a reductionist1 right selection and mix of individuals approach to solve difficult problems. in the programme. Creating the right Such an approach is a useful way to entities and the right environment, deconstruct problems into smaller, rather than centrally planning solutions, more manageable components, but it is the more successful and liberating has known limitations. It may provide approach in the long term. the answer for certain problems, but

60 / Embracing Complexity in Healthcare Healthcare as an industry has a re-examine their roles in a more complex substantial service component; the people operating environment. This does not providing the service are sometimes as mean discarding all strategic planning important as the products themselves. processes. Instead, it means retaining The customer experience is heavily and strengthening certain key functions dependent on the interactions between (the broad parameters of planning, for consumers and service providers. A instance), while spinning off or even conventional linear solution to a hospital creating new entities catering to the bed shortage might be to build more more localised planning that complex facilities and train more staff, but such systems often require. an approach would be inadequate if it fails to take into account the relevant Planners should aim to lead by setting human interactions and relationships: it would solve a quantitative problem, “rules of the game” and then monitoring but create a qualitative one. (instead of micromanaging), while Any shift to a complexity-based approach should be gradual; the capability different agents co-develop the landscape and capacity for perceiving, understanding and co-evolve with time. and addressing complex problems must be built up over time — for both the In the new era, the public will become individual and the system. This will increasingly responsible for co-creating take time and effort, but is a necessary the healthcare landscape they want or investment to cope with an increasingly believe in. This also means that citizens complex healthcare landscape. will have to rethink their own roles in healthcare consumption, advocacy, The Need for Change philanthropy and sector development. On the other hand, planners who Such a fundamental shift will generate recognise that they are dealing with systemic tensions, which can be mitigated problems of a complex nature may find and managed if the necessary changes that this new approach frees them to in both government and citizenry take be more open to experimentation and place at a similar pace. innovation. Old models may need to be dismantled before new systems can Policy Planning: A New Approach take their place. Governments that The policy planning role needs to shift have traditionally taken on a strong from prediction and control to fostering centralised approach to healthcare relations and creating enabling conditions planning may have to acknowledge for teamwork and success. When the limitations of this approach and planners have successfully incorporated

ETHOS / 61 APPROACHING COMPLEXITY IN HEALTHCARE AT DIFFERENT SCALES

any complex healthcare issues have immediate issues, and look at the whole Mno obvious solutions or clear-cut system from fresh perspectives. This can right or wrong answers. The choice to be also help all stakeholders to generate made is often between two imperfect sets of idealised models towards a shared vision, solutions, each with its own strengths and and illustrate the tensions between ideal limitations. How might we approach them? and reality. While different stakeholder perspectives and priorities will not have Organisational scale: A hospital newly gone away, there is now greater collective tasked with caring for its surrounding awareness of legitimate differences, and the community may initiate open dialogue process of seeking accommodation (distinct with community partners to seek new ideas from consensus) can take place. If done well, or new models of care. In such a context, the process can help to build trust within the soft systems methodology — where the group, and bolster its ability to deal stakeholders are asked to put aside their with challenges in the future. organisational personae, and think about action in an idealised realm — may help. Governmental scale: To understand end- It allows the individuals a safe zone where of-life issues and design a comprehensive they can step away from the messiness of strategy to manage them, a government

It is not enough to have the correct a complexity-based approach to their work, the next skill they will have to people come together to work on a learn is to govern through a few simple planned solution — success calls for an “rules of the game”.2 If planners get caught up trying to understanding of how these people work manage complex systems with increasingly together to find the correct solution. complicated policy structures, they The quality of relations between entities will lose the agility and light-touch that is inherently necessary to shape in a system matters. such systems. Instead, planners should aim to lead by setting “rules of the game” and then monitoring (instead of micromanaging), while different agents

62 / Embracing Complexity in Healthcare must first accept that science is poorly National scale: Falling birth rates is a equipped to tackle certain social challenges. multi-faceted and highly complex issue. In a pluralistic society, any answer that Nations dealing with this problem may attempts to shoehorn end-of-life issues decide to reframe the narrative of family and into a single neat package is bound to fail. child-rearing. Transition management offers Instead, appreciative inquiry can be useful, a framework for managing these large-scale particularly in seeking to build understanding ecological changes, by allowing the vision to instead of trying to find solutions. The focus take shape on a blank canvas, in an arena with of the inquiry is not on the problem, but on multiple stakeholders. Often, the vision is not the possibilities, opportunities and strengths fixed in details, but encompasses a broad view of current stakeholders. If done well, this of possible futures, and the final outcome is approach creates a context for deep dialogue left to broader stakeholder engagement and and reflection that can expand the boundaries co-creation processes. The process of transition of our knowledge and imagination. Perhaps the management has been likened to being more hardest part of this transformative approach akin to “midwifery” than “engineering”. is letting go of the habit of seeking exclusively to solve problems.

Source: Philippe Vandenbroeck, Working with Wicked Problems (Brussels, Belgium: King Baudouin Foundation, 2012)

co-develop the landscape and co-evolve they should also encourage people to with time: an indicator of maturity and voluntarily coordinate their actions for resilience in the ecosystem.3 a common good. This complexity-based approach also When governments with a strong reframes policy planning and managerial tradition of central planning adopt a activities to emphasise sense-making, complexity-based approach for healthcare learning and improvisation, while letting sector planning, the experience can be healthcare providers take on decisions both liberating and nerve-wracking about care — decisions that should be for the planners and the system as a undertaken by people who understand whole — as it is with any voluntary the need for care. Governments and surrender of control. planners can wield substantial influence Obliging planners to assume through their policy interventions, but responsibility for the health of the

ETHOS / 63 entire system can crowd out important control to partner organisations. Such a stakeholders and may marginalise transition will not be simple or quick; it partner organisations vital to the healthy may also be fraught with issues of trust functioning of the system. But where and bouts of disappointment. Learning, planners relinquish a certain level of growth and development, both at the control, new voices may speak up more personal and organisational level, often comfortably, allowing partners and starts in such a place of discomfort — stakeholders to develop new capabilities where evolution begins and energy is and emergent solutions to take shape. created. The worse alternative is not Planners can then take on new roles to evolve at all. as enablers, gradually transferring more granular planning, operations and

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors would like to thank the following persons for their inputs towards this article: A/Prof John Abisheganaden, Mr Peter Ho, Dr Benjamin Koh, A/Prof Kenneth Mak, MG (NS) Ng Chee Khern, Dr Ng Yeuk Fan and Mrs Tan Ching Yee.

NOTES

1. Reductionism is the idea that a system can be 3. One example is the way in which the Institute understood by examining its individual parts. of Medicine exercised its influence over the complex US healthcare landscape. Informed by 2. Complexity science tells us that simple complexity science, it was able in 2001 to focus rules can lead to intricate, unpredictable yet the entire healthcare sector on “Six Aims for effective patterns of collective behaviour. Improvement”: to be Safe, Effective, Patient- Examples in nature abound: the mass centred, Timely, Efficient and Equitable. This migration of locust swarms, the evasive approach was much more effective compared to manoeuvres of a school of fish when attacked, if the Institute had micromanaged improvements and how a colony of ants functions as a for each individual entity in the system. See: super-organism. Scientists have commented Institute of Medicine, “Crossing the Quality that nature is frugal: of the possible rules that Chasm: A New Health System for the 21st could be used to govern interactions among Century” (Washington, D.C.: National Academy agents, often only the simplest are in effect, Press, 2001). e.g. (1) move in the same direction as your neighbour, (2) remain close to your neighbours, and (3) avoid collisions with your neighbours.

64 / Embracing Complexity in Healthcare FURTHER READING

Alberts, David S. and Richard E. Hayes. Planning: Flake, Gary William. The Computational Beauty Complex Endeavors. Washington, D.C.: Department of Nature: Computational Explorations of Fractals, of Defense Command and Control Research Chaos, Complex Systems, and Adaptation. Programme, 2007. Cambridge, MA: Bradford Books, 2000.

Bar-Yam, Y., S. Bar-Yam, K.Z. Bertrand, N. Cohen, Institute of Medicine, 2001. Crossing the Quality A.S. Gard-Murray, H.P. Harte, and L. Leykum. “A Chasm: A New Health System for the 21st Century. Complex Systems Science Approach to Healthcare Costs and Quality.” In Handbook of Systems and Lim, Jeremy. Myth of Magic: The Singapore Complexity in Health, 855–877. Springer, 2013. Healthcare System. Singapore: Select Publishing, 2013. Colander, David and Roland Kupers. Complexity and the Art of Public Policy: Solving Society’s O’Hara, Maureen and Graham Leicester. Dancing at Problems from the Bottom Up. New Jersey: the Edge: Competence, Culture and Organization in Princeton University Press, 2014. the 21st Century. Axminster, Devon: Triarchy Press, 2012. Drucker, Peter. Managing in the Next Society. New York, N.Y.: Truman Talley Books, 2002. Vandenbroeck, Philippe. Working with Wicked Problems. Brussels, Belgium: King Baudouin Evidence Scan: Complex adaptive systems. The Foundation, 2012. www.kbs-fre.be Health Foundation, August 2010. http://www. health.org.uk/publication/complex-adaptive-systems

ETHOS / 65 Simulations, Exercises and Games in the Civil Service

The former Head of Civil Service makes a case for policy gaming as a means to anchor learning, reduce surprise and surface diverse perspectives.

BY Peter Ho is currently the Senior Advisor to the Centre for Strategic Futures and Senior Fellow in the Civil Service College. He is an Adjunct Professor with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and a PETER HO Visiting Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Previously, he served as Head, Civil Service, concurrent with other appointments as Permanent Secretary (Foreign Affairs), Permanent Secretary (National Security and Intelligence Coordination), and Permanent Secretary (Special Duties) in the Prime Minister’s Office. Before that, he was Permanent Secretary (Defence). A version of this article was delivered as a speech at the Civil Service College Games Exchange on 14 October 2014.

66 / Simulations, Exercises and Games in the Civil Service Introduction and unpredictable ways that are almost In an early scene in the 2009 movie impossible to codify. version of Star Trek, the future Tacit knowledge has to be acquired in Captain James Kirk is a cadet in the other ways. Such knowledge is often Starfleet Academy. Spock accuses him transmitted in the form of stories or of cheating in a simulation exercise narratives. The Iliad and the Odyssey, called Kobayashi Maru. Kirk argues the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, that the cheating is justified because and the Ramayana and Mahabharata, the simulation has been designed to be whose origins go back thousands of unbeatable. Spock counters that Kirk years, are examples of how narratives had failed to understand the purpose transmit tacit knowledge. Fiction and of the exercise. When Kirk asks him novels express complex experiences and to explain, Spock says: insights in ways that non-fiction cannot. This is reason enough to read widely. The purpose is to experience fear. Fear Often, tacit knowledge is acquired in the face of certain death. To accept on-the-job, through lived reality and that fear and maintain command of one’s experience — what some would call self and one’s crew. That is a quality “learning by doing”. expected in every Starfleet captain. Sometimes, however, we do not have the luxury of time, either to read Explicit and Tacit Knowledge novels or to allow tacit knowledge to While we might smirk a little, we should accumulate over time. In such cases, not overlook an important insight we need ways to jumpstart the process in this slightly overwrought script. of acquiring tacit knowledge. Under Much of what we learn is knowledge these circumstances, tacit knowledge that is formalised and codified. This can be developed through simulations, is explicit knowledge. It is written exercises and games. in books, and we can also find it in But such activities do more notes and databases. In school and than just increase tacit knowledge. at university, explicit knowledge is Like their richer cousin — real-life transmitted in the classroom through experience — they can expose us to textbooks and lectures, and even emotions and senses that we cannot through self-learning or online courses. fully grasp just by sitting through a Then there is tacit knowledge, lecture. We may understand fear, but knowledge that is embedded in only in an intellectual way. To teach complex systems and situations, in the Starfleet cadets how to manage fear, which roles, technologies, emotions, the imaginary Kobayashi Maru creates and behaviours interact in dynamic fear by simulating the complexities

ETHOS / 67 of emotion and stress that exist in hidden complexities that make up combat situations. tacit knowledge, but they also embed patterns in the memory of participants, Pattern Recognition which can be recalled later for making In a famous study, Dr Gary Klein, decisions in real-life situations. This an American psychologist, examined is pattern recognition. The value of how firemen make decisions in pattern recognition is that it triggers complex and stressful situations. In responses to a problem — as Gary his seminal book Sources of Power,1 he Klein discovered in firemen. showed that firemen do not fight fires There are many other examples. by working through a logical decision- During the first Apollo moon landing, tree from their fire-fighting manual. astronaut Neil Armstrong noticed that, Instead, they apply the first pattern in under control of its onboard computer, their experience that most resembles the Lunar Module was heading towards a their current situation to fight the landing area covered by boulders. He then fire raging in front of them. Klein’s took over manual control of the Lunar surprising conclusion was that in Module in order to find a safer spot to situations of stress or incomplete land. This would take more time, and information, people do not necessarily Mission Control was concerned that the make decisions in a logical way. Lunar Module would run low on fuel. But Instead, they draw on a repository because of Armstrong’s intense training, of heuristics and patterns, acquired he had experienced several simulated moon through experience and training, and landings with less than fifteen seconds then embedded in memory, to make of fuel left, and he was also confident their decisions. Klein’s findings led the Lunar Module could survive a the US military to change the way it plunge from fifteen meters if it ran out trains its officers. of fuel. Indeed, a post-mortem after the Apollo 11 mission showed Armstrong’s judgement to be sound, because it turned As more patterns are embedded out that at touchdown there was about in memory, the ability to make 45 to 50 seconds of propellant burn sound decisions when dealing with time left. This is an example of how simulations can strengthen pattern complex situations is strengthened. recognition, as well as the concomitant ability to respond to such patterns as This is a big reason why simulations, they emerge in complex situations. exercises and games are so important. There is, unfortunately, no short Not only do they impart some of the cut to building up such a repository of

68 / Simulations, Exercises and Games in the Civil Service patterns. Merely learning the theory many years. All will testify to the of fire-fighting is of no help, just as intensity and the realistic training reading a manual on how to land on that these two exercises provide, and the moon would not have informed how these exercises have improved Neil Armstrong’s decision to override their professional confidence. the computer control of the Lunar What do Red Flag and Cope Thunder Module. It is only by taking part do that cannot otherwise be taught in in many simulations, exercises and normal flying training? While they games — and through real-life cannot really teach fear, unlike Star experience — that the fireman or Trek’s Kobayashi Maru, they do have the astronaut grows his library a common purpose of imparting tacit of patterns. As more patterns are knowledge through the intense experience embedded in memory, the ability to of flying in near combat conditions. make sound decisions when fighting Pilots and crews learn experientially real fires, landing on the moon or to pick up cues — physical, visual dealing with other complex situations and emotional — and to acquire is strengthened. judgements of combat situations that cannot adequately be taught Exercise Red Flag in the classroom. Equally important, In the early days of the Vietnam War, like Gary Klein’s firemen or like Neil the US Air Force (USAF) realised Armstrong, they acquire patterns of that it was losing too many aircraft complex situations that could prove to enemy action. A study showed invaluable when in actual combat, in that a pilot’s chances of survival in which life-or-death decisions have to combat improved dramatically after be made in a split-second, and when ten combat missions. So in 1975, the there is no time to reflect or analyse. USAF established Exercise Red Flag Because commanders, soldiers, to simulate these ten combat missions, sailors and airmen cannot wait to before its aircrews were sent into go to war to acquire tacit knowledge real combat. The aim was to increase or to build a repository of patterns, their chances of survival when they the military have used simulations, were eventually deployed into combat exercises and wargames as a proven theatres. The US Pacific Air Forces and effective substitute for the created a similar programme called real thing. So even in the richly Exercise Cope Thunder, sited in Clark imagined world of Star Trek, there Air Base in the Philippines. Our RSAF is a place for simulation exercises pilots and crews have participated in like Kobayashi Maru. both Red Flag and Cope Thunder for

ETHOS / 69 Bounded Rationality effectively in combat, they must learn For a whole variety of reasons, hierarchy to overcome cognitive limitations such is crucial to the effective running of as bounded rationality, in order to cope military organisations. A hierarchy is with the chaos and complexities inherent optimised for the leader at the top to in war and conflict. These are some of receive all the information, and then to the important reasons why a large part make the decisions. But under stress, of military training takes place outside such as in war or conflict, a military the classroom, through simulations, hierarchy can become unresponsive — exercises and wargames that increase even dangerously dysfunctional — tacit knowledge and facilitate the learning because there are decision-making of patterns. bottlenecks at the top. Events move too fast for the general or admiral to Discovery and Games call all the shots. He risks having Nobel laureate, economist and strategic all his cognitive synapses saturated, thinker Thomas Schelling once said, or he lacks sufficient bandwidth “One thing a person cannot do, no to comprehend the full scope of the matter how rigorous his analysis, or problem, or he lacks the tacit knowledge heroic his imagination, is to draw up to cope with the complexity of the a list of things that would never occur situation. Nobel laureate and economist to him.” Herbert Simon called this cognitive In any complex operating problem bounded rationality. environment, the connections and Bounded rationality’s basic insight interactions among the myriad of is that the decision-maker has a limited agents interacting with one another are cognitive ability to access and process often hidden from view. These hidden information. Combined with the finite interactions lead to outcomes that only time available to make a decision, a become apparent when they actually decision-maker cannot possibly make a occur. So when something happens, rational and optimal choice. Instead, he we are surprised. Simulations, exercise will have to choose a course of action that and games can sometimes be used to is somewhat acceptable, but not optimal. explore complex and subtle issues, in Knowing how to cope with bounded order to discover hidden concepts and rationality is an important component of buried factors, or to reveal connections and the tacit knowledge of military leaders. interactions that a conventional analysis The military has learnt through would not be able to do. This can reduce bitter — and sometimes even fatal — surprise and improve readiness. experience that for its commanders, soldiers, sailors and airmen to function

70 / Simulations, Exercises and Games in the Civil Service DARK WINTER

xercise Dark Winter was a famous American weaknesses, such as hospitals being unable E simulation exercise held in 2001.1 Many to cope with a sudden surge in demand for senior officials and politicians participated beds and handling of casualties. The exercise in Dark Winter. The scenario centred on the also demonstrated that the supply of smallpox development and use of a biological weapon — vaccine in the US was grossly inadequate. smallpox — by terrorists. Three shopping Without Dark Winter, some of these findings malls in the USA were targeted. Dark Winter would have been met with incredulity among aimed to evaluate the adequacy of measures decision-makers who would otherwise and responses of the US government after a have demanded convincing analysis and biological attack. It discovered major systemic hard evidence.

NOTE

1. http://www.upmchealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2001_dark-winter/about.html

Online Games and in a richer outcome, leading to more Cognitive Diversity robust tactical solutions. The US Navy Other forms of online games have taken has since used MMOWGLI to tackle cognitive diversity to even higher levels. wicked problems like energy. The US Army has used Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOGs) Simulations, Exercises and Games involving thousands of players from all in Government over the world to develop new tactical Simulations, exercises and games have concepts. The US Navy’s version, proven their value to the military and called Massively Multiplayer Online national security agencies. However, War Game Leveraging the Internet they are just as important for the proper (MMOWGLI) created new tactics to functioning of government as a whole, combat Somali pirates. In opening where a lot of knowledge is actually tacit up MMOWGLI to the whole world rather than explicit. Since governments — and perhaps a few Somali pirates operate in a complex environment, many might even have played — many more decisions will have to be made under alternatives were generated, resulting conditions of incomplete information

ETHOS / 71 and uncertain outcomes. No amount While it clearly has tremendous of analysis and forward planning will value in helping civil servants cope with eliminate the uncertainty that exists wicked problems and complex strategic in a complex world. Government issues, policy gaming should not be decision-makers are as susceptible to treated as an occasional but entertaining the challenges of bounded rationality diversion. It should be established as a as are military leaders. part of routine training. This is the way to systematically embed patterns, and Simulations, exercises and games reinforce tacit knowledge. Singapore’s can sometimes lead to unpredictable Air Force may only take part in Red Flag and Cope Thunder once in a while, learning outcomes, and this is anathema but on a daily basis its pilots, aircrew in bureaucratic organisations that value and controllers take part in simulation structure and measurable performance. exercises and wargames to hone their fighting skills. In contrast to the military, In a similar way, civil servants who governments have generally not routinely work in complex environments, exploited simulations, exercises and such as media officers and diplomats in games as a pedagogical approach to train the Foreign Service, should regularly their leaders and civil servants. In fact, take part in policy games. this approach is largely underutilised One reason why Red Flag and Cope and often overlooked for its value in Thunder are so effective is that they are helping civil servants in general, and both two-sided exercises that include policy-planners and decision-makers an Opposing Force (OPFOR). The in particular, to better cope with the OPFOR fly aircraft that are different complexities inherent in their operating from those used by exercise participants. environment. Perhaps it is because They use the tactics and procedures of such simulations, exercises and games the enemy, which used to be the Soviet can sometimes lead to unpredictable Union in the old days. This reinforces the learning outcomes, and this is anathema learning value of the exercises, because in bureaucratic organisations that value the OPFOR teaches the participants a structure and measurable performance. vital but subtle lesson that the enemy But this is reason enough for governments does not necessarily think and act to take them seriously, because they can like them. help civil servants to unlearn a piece In this regard, we should recognise of bureaucratic theology: that good that one shortcoming of the way our analysis and thorough planning will policy games are played is that the always lead to predictable outcomes. participants come mostly from similar

72 / Simulations, Exercises and Games in the Civil Service civil service backgrounds. This To circumvent this problem, can lead to groupthink, predictable cognitive diversity should be a reactions, and to old patterns being factor in the design of policy games. merely repeated. Policy gaming just Certain policy games should engage among civil servants will not help participants from outside the civil them see that other people might service. The National Security react in completely different ways to Coordination Secretariat’s games, a given situation. The learning value for example, have included academics. is diminished. Wikisense was designed for wide and

POLICY GAMING INITIATIVES IN THE SINGAPORE CIVIL SERVICE

imulations, exercises and games are The game, which has been run over 30 times S known as “policy games” in the Singapore in various public sector courses, explores Civil Service, to distinguish them from the dynamics among diverse stakeholders, how wargames used by the military. Several have they make decisions, their assumptions and been deployed to help improve the quality of behaviours, as well as the role and the value planning and decision-making. of public engagement. While the game can never fully capture all the nuances of real life, CSC Applied Simulation Training participants come to appreciate the complexity (CAST) of such public issues, with lessons that fall Established in the Civil Service College clearly in the realm of tacit knowledge and (CSC), CAST has built up some capabilities pattern recognition. in policy gaming, to support CSC’s training and milestone programmes. Cents and Sensibilities A game designed for participants to explore Villa La Rose Policy Game the principles of procurement, financial Based loosely on real-life events that followed prudence, and public accountability, Cents the decision to build a Mass Rapid Transit and Sensibilities has been run at several station at the entrance to the Maplewoods CSC milestone programmes and the Public condominium, this policy game gets participants Service Training Institutes Network. One to play the roles of different stakeholders, reason why the game has done well is that it each with different motivations and interests engages the participants on a dry topic, but in relation to the building of a drilling shaft in an engaging and fun manner. outside the condominium ‘Villa La Rose’.

ETHOS / 73 National Security Coordination analysed scenarios on the Internet on the Secretariat topic of “Eurasian Resources and Economic The National Security Coordination Secretariat’s Trajectories”. Wikisense demonstrated that foray into policy gaming has paralleled an online platform could bring together CSC’s. In 2012 and 2013, NSCS organised a large and diverse group of participants, two games centred on wicked problems in scattered over continents and living in national security, each involving about 40 different time zones, into a systematic and policymakers and subject matter experts directed discussion on a challenging topic. from various ministries and agencies over At the end of 21 days, a rich collection of 136 a three-day period outside a conventional scenarios had been developed. classroom setting. Online Policy Gaming Project Wikisense NSCS intends to develop an online policy An online crowd-sourcing simulation gaming platform as part of the Risk Assessment game, Project Wikisense involved about and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) system, which 170 participants from government agencies, should enable online games to be conducted academia, and from international think tanks. more frequently and routinely. Over 21 days, participants generated and

international participation. People policy games for civil servants at all from different backgrounds and views levels, including in their milestone will help to create more and different programmes. The use of policy games patterns that can only improve the for planning, policy design, futures learning value of such games. work, public engagement, and service delivery, should be explored. Policy Conclusion games must become integral to the The Singapore Civil Service should proper running and organisation of move to systematically design and run the Civil Service in Singapore.

NOTE

1. Gary Klein, Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1999).

74 / Simulations, Exercises and Games in the Civil Service Gearing the Public Service for SG100

Singapore’s Head of Civil Service charts new directions for the public sector as the nation looks forward to its next decades of growth.

BY Peter Ong is the Head of Singapore’s Civil Service and concurrently Permanent Secretary at the Ministry PETER ONG of Finance and Permanent Secretary (Special Duties) at the Prime Minister’s Office. A version of this article was published in The Straits Times on 5 November 2015.

ETHOS / 75 Today, public officers across the world Taking Strides Forward Through operate in much more hyper-connected Transformative Changes environments, where issues are multi- We have sought to innovate and customise dimensional and technologies are policies to the needs of different segments changing our lives in profound ways of Singaporeans. An example is the — Facebook, the world’s most popular Pioneer Generation Package where media owner, creates only a fraction we partnered the community to help of the content on its platform; Uber, explain policies to diverse segments the world’s largest transportation among the elderly. network company, owns no taxis; We have also organised ourselves Alibaba, one of the largest retailers, differently to serve the public better. has no inventory. Innovative models To integrate work on early childhood, of businesses emerge as supply chains improve municipal services delivery get disrupted. and oversee the emerging issue of cyber For public officers in Singapore, security, we set up the Early Childhood certain realities remain unchanged Development Agency, the Municipal — as a small and open economy, we Services Office and the Cyber Security contend with external economic forces Agency, respectively. and geo-political uncertainties. We will We applied new approaches such as need to navigate structural changes behavioural economics and insights, and in our domestic context as our society design thinking, to improve our policies ages and becomes more diverse and and schemes. For example, 3% to 5% more affluent. As we enter a more mature employers paid their foreign domestic phase of economic development, we worker levies on time when they received need to continue producing good jobs pink reminder letters which indicated to meet our people’s aspirations even that 96% other employers paid the levy as we ensure Singapore’s relevance in on time. By offering free or cheaper rides the world. at selected times and destinations, the Challenges are also opportunities. Land Transport Authority (LTA) saw Our vision of a Smart Nation will a 7% to 8% shift in the morning peak improve our quality of life by leveraging hour travel load and thereby eased technology. In the past five years, we congestion. have also embarked on a Public Sector We are learning new ways of Transformation movement to design reaching out, listening and involving the citizen-centric policies and services, community as partners. Our Singapore serve as One Public Service, and build Conversation built mutual understanding partnerships with the community. amongst Singaporeans, and helped the

76 / Gearing the Public Service for SG100 Public Service appreciate the myriad The second is to move towards a of aspirations and concerns among digital government, which involves different segments. Subsequent public two key aspects. One is “digitising engagements like MediShield Life and the Government” for which the Public CPF consultations have built on these Service will leverage technology and approaches of small group dialogues. data to a greater extent. We want to use mobile platforms to improve our service Building a Better Singapore, Together delivery, especially as Singapore has one Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has of the highest smart phone penetration laid out the priorities for the next five rates in the world. By early next year, years — keeping our nation safe and we will introduce the new “MyInfo” secure; ensuring growth, jobs and feature on our eCitizen portal, where opportunities; taking care of Singaporeans; citizens need only provide their personal and transforming and greening our data once to the Government, instead of home. All these are underpinned by good repeatedly doing so for every electronic governance, which the Public Service transaction with us. We will start with will seek to deliver while focusing on e-services such as applications for HDB three broad areas. flats and the Baby Bonus Scheme, and The first is to partner Singaporeans progressively extend this feature to more and harness their energies and ideas for e-services over time. the good of Singapore — no one has a monopoly on ideas and the Public Service Partner Singaporeans and harness may not always have the answer, or be the answer. We are constantly on the their energies and ideas for the good of lookout for opportunities to crowdsource, Singapore — no one has a monopoly consult and co-create — both within the Service and with Singaporeans on ideas and the Public Service may not — as we shape our future together. always have the answer, or be the answer. The upcoming Jurong Lake Gardens will be a people’s garden, developed We also want to ride the wave of big based on ideas from the public, with data to make better policy and planning more than 17,700 suggestions received decisions. Beeline, a “live experiment” by through a public engagement exercise. the Infocomm Development Authority SGfuture is another opportunity for of Singapore and LTA, crowdsources Singaporeans to discuss how we can suggestions and uses big data to find realise our dreams and aspirations for more direct and viable bus routes. our country collectively. Results are provided to private transport

ETHOS / 77 companies and they can list bus routes improve WOG coordination. Beyond hard on the app which commuters can then structural changes, we must internalise use to reserve seats. systems thinking and collaboration as The other aspect is “governing the part of our shared culture so that it will digital”, which means putting in place be second nature for all of us to work the platforms, processes and policies to across agency boundaries and tackle foster invention and co-creation. We issues of priority. We will then be able want to provide access to and improve to tap on the wisdom of crowds as well the quality of open data so that new as innovate and adapt as we work at insights and solutions can be derived delivering higher public value. by a wider community of researchers, People must be at the heart of this data scientists, and developers. This transformation we seek for the Public year, we released additional transport Service. We are committed to supporting data sets and revamped our government officers in acquiring future-relevant open data portal to make it more user- skills that will allow them to advance friendly. Concurrently, we will take steps to their next job, by mapping out career to mitigate the risks of new technology, pathways and competencies required. Our particularly in cyber-security, personal Public Service Leadership Programme data protection and ensuring no one is has been launched to systematically left behind. provide development opportunities for close to 700 sectoral and specialist Beyond hard structural changes, we leaders all across the Public Service as we recognise the importance of deep must internalise systems thinking and skills and capabilities to govern in a collaboration as part of our shared culture complex world. When our people are so that it will be second nature for all of empowered and equipped, we can achieve transformational results for Singapore us to work across agency boundaries and and Singaporeans. tackle issues of priority. Gearing Up for The Future Ahead The third is to be an integrated 2015 had been a year of reflection and and nimble Public Service. We call this celebration, as we marked our 50th “Whole-of-Government” (WOG). We birthday as a nation. The Public Service have put in place processes such as the No came together to support the nation in Wrong Door policy and First Responder its grief, when we honoured our founding Protocol, and set up the Strategy Group father Lee Kuan Yew, and celebrated as under the Prime Minister’s Office to one for the 28th SEA Games. For the

78 / Public Service, it was a very special year for all of us to reaffirm our values and beliefs — of integrity, service and excellence — and to recommit ourselves to our mission of keeping Singapore special for many more decades to come. We are starting a new chapter that will bring us closer to SG100. How our Singapore story will unfold will depend on bold ideas, a whole-of-nation effort and the gumption to make it happen. In partnership with Singaporeans, public officers have an opportunity to be tomorrow’s pioneers through the journeys we take today.

ETHOS / 79 80 / Errata In our interview with Adam Kahane on “Transformative Alliance” (Ethos Issue 13, p24–29), Adam’s bio should have read “Adam Kahane is the Chairman of Reos North America, a social enterprise that helps businesses, governments, and civil society organisations address complex social challenges”. In addition:

Page For Read

24, right column, but to transform the future but also to transform it line 15

24, right column, nor do they even necessarily nor do they even line 14 know what the problem is necessarily agree on what the problem is

27, left column, We call this combination of We call this combination line 16 the three key elements a lab of the three key elements a social lab2

27, right column, Lately, about 80% of our work Half of our work is line 27 is in convening these labs in putting together – convening, building and organising – these labs

29, right column, Transformative scenario Transformative scenario line 1 planning, through the lab planning, employing social process, is co-creative work labs, is co-creative work

29, Note 2. Zaid Hassan, The Social Labs Revolution: A New Approach to Solving Our Most Complex Challenges (San Francisco: Berrett- Koehler, 2014).

The publisher apologises for the errors.

ETHOS / 81 ‘Our Institutions’ traces the development of the Public Service through its driving goals and DEFENDING OUR HOME AND NATION ideals, showing how it has confronted crises, managed complexities and risen to meet our HOUSING A NATION, BUILDING A CITY nation’s most pressing challenges over the past five decades.

CAPTAINS OF LIVES

A lead facilitator for Our Singapore Conversation (OSC), 33-year-old Mr Nicholas Thomas OUR STORIES Fernandez is eager to listen, and to forge new ways of working together. ‘Our People’ features 50 stories about (A FIRST-PERSON ACCOUNT) public officers who have been a part of the key moments in our history, showcasing the was a teacher, doing a job I liked very hours and hours. The richness of the con- I much. Then I volunteered for an event that versation came from the diversity of views. changed the course of my life. I was asked to help out as a liaison officer at the 2009 The stories we heard moved me greatly and Asian Youth Games. I worked with the Chef continue to motivate me. For example, a values that define the Public Service — de Mission of the Philippines, assisting him polytechnic student in a wheelchair shared during the pre-Games meetings. That was how he’d wake up in the wee hours of the the first time I was put in a whole-of-govern - morning to take the first bus to school, and ment setting, and I saw many different public leave for home after the evening peak hour. agencies working together for a single cause. Why? Because the rush hour crowd made it integrity, service and excellence — as well as difficult for him to manoeuvre up the bus. The richness of the conveHirsas expetiorienn ces showed how we can do came from the diversity ofm oviere asw a sco. untry, and his story was just one of many that resonated deeply with me My interest was piqued: what kind of plan- beyond the OSC experience. The conver- how public officers served tirelessly and ning, strategies and effort were needed for sations all boil down to a simple directive: such a huge event? I wanted to contribute to how we, the Public Service, can make the efforts like these. I joined the Civil Service lives of Singaporeans better. College (CSC) in 2011 and began work at the Institute of Public Sector Leadership. The “THIS CONVERSATION MUST CONTINUE” core function of the Institute is to develop round the clock, from their hearts. a pipeline of leaders through an integrated Ms April Chin, 29, was part of the OSC team that suite of milestone programmes. discussed questions about our future openly with Singaporeans from all walks of life. Having joined My work now is similar to what I did as a the Public Service in 2009 to work on social as- teacher: I still get to develop, collaborate sistance policies for lower-income children, Ms and listen. I’m constantly challenged to do Chin moved to the Public Service Division in 2011 all three in the core work of the Institute and where she was a member of the OSC Secretariat. in other projects such as OSC, the largest The conversations brought her closer to the heart- public conversation Singapore has ever beat of the nation. “OSC was about having a con- had, with close to 47,000 people joining in sidered and open dialogue about the path before from October 2012 to May 2013. us,” she says. “We wanted to honour the views of all the participants by listening sincerely.” During OSC, I worked with 120 volunteer fa- cilitators in hosting the conversations, and Ms Chin’s background in social work helped her facilitated several sessions as well. Citizens stay focused on the people who were sharing their talked about everything during the sessions hopes, stories and concerns. For her, OSC paved – from housing, education and jobs to tech- the way for fresh approaches in engagement nology, the disadvantaged and public assis - and collaboration. “What OSC proved was that tance. We conversed across 660 sessions. Singaporeans really want to be involved in building We conversed everywhere, from the east our future, together,” she says. “This conversation to the west of the island. We conversed for must continue.”

165 CHAPTER 5 – HEART

Heart of Public Service is a two-volume book-set that honours the institutions and officers of the Singapore Public Service, and is now available in major bookstores, such as Kinokuniya, Popular and MPH.

Includes a companion video series with more inspirational stories from our public officers. Scan the QR code or visit www.psd.gov.sg/heartofpublicservice to find out