Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the Electricity Impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern Region of the United States

EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

Wednesday, October 10, 2018 • Weather: Hurricane Michael made landfall today in the Florida • Generators: Southern Company announced that it began panhandle. The Category 4 storm has sustained winds up to reducing output at the 1,751-megawatt Farley nuclear plant 125 miles per hour and hurricane-force winds extending up to in southeastern Alabama today. This was described as a 40 miles from the center. Cumulative rainfall in the impacted precautionary measure made in anticipation of the possible parts of Florida, Alabama, and Georgia are expected to total arrival of hurricane-force winds. four to eight inches. • Customer outages, as of 6:00 p.m.: About 388,000 • Electricity: Forecast and actual peak loads for the SOCO and customers in Florida, 46,000 customers in Georgia, and AEC balancing authorities (BAs), which cover most of Georgia, 45,000 customers in Alabama have reported electricity Alabama, and the Florida panhandle, have declined over the outages, roughly 3.7%, 0.9%, and 1.7% of the customers in past two days as the hurricane approached. The impact of the the states, respectively. Outage numbers are expected to hurricane is most apparent in the TAL (City of Tallahassee) BA, rise as the storm moves inland. where reported demand has fallen far short of forecast.

REGIONAL OVERVIEW Southeast region electricity load Southeast region electricity load current day vs. past 4 days current day actual vs. forecast megawatts megawatts 40,000 40,000

35,000 35,000

30,000 30,000

25,000 25,000

20,000 20,000 SAT 10/6 15,000 SUN 10/7 15,000 MON 10/8 10,000 10,000 TUE 10/9 Forecast 5,000 WED 10/10 5,000 Actual

0 0 1 am 4 am 7 am 10 am 1 pm 4 pm 7 pm 10 pm hour ending 1 am 4 am 7 am 10 am 1 pm 4 pm 7 pm 10 pm hour ending Source: EIA

WEATHER PROJECTIONS

Precipitation Wave Height Wind Speed & Direction inches feet knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph) 6 hr period ending Wed Oct 10 at 8 pm EDT for Wed Oct 10 at 8 pm EDT for Wed Oct 10 at 8 pm EDT

Source: NOAA Send questions or comments about this report to [email protected]. EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

REGIONAL OVERVEW Southeast region electricity load NC Current day vs. past 4 days Current day actual vs. forecast TVA DUK thousand megawatts thousand megawatts 45 45 SC 40 SAT 10/6 40 SEPA SC 35 35 30 SUN 10/7 30 AL 25 MON 10/8 25 SOCO SCEG 20 20 15 TUE 10/9 15 GA AEC 10 10 Forecast WED 10/10 5 5 FL JEA Actual TAL GVL 0 0 Southeast FPC 1 am 7 am 1 pm 7 pm hour ending 1 am 7 am 1 pm 7 pm hour ending NSB region SEC FMPP Florida region electricity load Current day vs. past 4 days Current day actual vs. forecast TEC thousand megawatts thousand megawatts FPL 45 45 Florida 40 SAT 10/6 40 35 35 region HST 30 SUN 10/7 30 25 MON 10/8 25 Balancing Authorities 20 20 Maps indicate the balancing 15 TUE 10/9 15 authorities within each region and 10 10 Forecast WED 10/10 the interconnections between 5 5 Actual balancing authorities 0 0 1 am 7 am 1 pm 7 pm hour ending 1 am 7 am 1 pm 7 pm hour ending

North & South Carolina region electricity load

YAD Current day vs. past 4 days Current day actual vs. forecast thousand megawatts thousand megawatts CPLW NC 45 45 DUK CPLE 40 SAT 10/6 40 35 35 30 SUN 10/7 30 SC 25 25 SEPA MON 10/8 SC 20 20 TUE 10/9 North & 15 15 10 10 Forecast WED 10/10 South Carolina 5 5 Actual SCEG region 0 0 1 am 7 am 1 pm 7 pm hour ending 1 am 7 am 1 pm 7 pm hour ending Source: EIA

NUCLEAR PLANTS & AVAILABILITY Daily snapshot of nuclear plant availability percent of total plant capacity Alabama

100% Total plant capacity 75% Joseph M Farley 50% (1,751 MW) Browns Ferry 25% (3,401 MW) 0% Tue Thu Sat Mon Wed Fri Sun Tue 10/2 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/10 10/12 10/14 10/16 Georgia

100% Total plant capacity 75% Edwin I Hatch 50% (1,759 MW) Vogtle 25% (2,302 MW) 0% Tue Thu Sat Mon Wed Fri Sun Tue 10/2 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/10 10/12 10/14 10/16 Source: NOAA, EIA Source: NRC, EIA 2 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

SOUTHERN COMPANY SERVICES (SOCO) Current electricity load data through hour ending 3 pm Southern Company Services (SOCO) Panama City, Florida Electricity load, actual vs. forecast Hourly average temperature megawatts degrees Fahrenheit 50,000 100 45,000 90 40,000 80 35,000 70 30,000 60 25,000 50 Forecast 20,000 40 15,000 30 Actual 10,000 20 Average 5,000 10 Temp 0 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Source: Southern Company 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

Southern Company Services (SOCO) electricity load, 2018 vs. past two years Southern Company Services megawatts (previous years aligned by week number & day of week to 2018 data) (SOCO) Balancing Authority 50,000 45,000 Total Customers 40,000 4,712,660 customers, 96% of all 35,000 customers in Georgia 30,000 25,000 1,651,193 customers, 64% of all 20,000 customers in Alabama 15,000 2016 10,000 2017 470,906 customers, 4% of all 5,000 2018 customers in Florida 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA

Southern Company Services (SOCO) net generation by energy source megawatts 25,000 Other 20,000 Solar Wind 15,000 Hydro Oil 10,000 Nuclear Natural Gas 5,000 Coal

0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA

Panama City, Florida weather wind & gust speed (mph) 1 hr precipitation (inches) 100 2.0 90 1.8 Gust Speed 80 1.6 (mph) 70 1.4 60 1.2 Prior data 50 not 1.0 Wind Speed 40 shown 0.8 (mph) 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 Precipitation 0 0.0 (inches) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 Source: NOAA 3 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

POWERSOUTH ENERGY COOPERATIVE (AEC) Current electricity load data through hour ending 3 pm Power South Energy Cooperative (AEC) Pensacola, Florida Electricity load, actual vs. forecast Hourly average temperature megawatts degrees Fahrenheit 2,000 100 1,800 90 1,600 80 1,400 70 1,200 60 1,000 50 800 40 Forecast 600 30 Actual 400 20 200 10 Average 0 0 Temp Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

Power South Energy Cooperative (AEC) electricity load, 2018 vs. past two years megawatts (previous years aligned by week number & day of week to 2018 data) Source: PowerSouth Energy Cooperative, EIA 2,000 1,800 1,600 PowerSouth Energy 1,400 Cooperative (AEC) 1,200 Balancing Authority 1,000 Total Customers 800 600 2016 334,517 customers, 13% of all 400 2017 customers in Alabama 200 2018 0 110,396 customers, 1% of all Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue customers in South Carolina 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

Source: EIA Power South Energy Cooperative (AEC) net generation by energy source megawatts 800 700 Other 600 Solar 500 Wind Hydro 400 Oil 300 Nuclear 200 Natural Gas Coal 100 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA Pensacola, Florida weather wind & gust speed (mph) 1 hr precipitation (inches) 100 2.0 90 1.8 Gust Speed 80 1.6 (mph) 70 1.4 60 1.2 Prior data 50 not 1.0 Wind Speed 40 shown 0.8 (mph) 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 Precipitation 0 0.0 (inches) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 Source: NOAA 4 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

CITY OF TALLAHASSEE (TAL) SOCO/AEC Current electricity load data through hour ending 3 pm TAL JEA

City of Tallahassee (TAL) Tallahassee, Florida GVL Electricity load, actual vs. forecast Hourly average temperature megawatts degrees Fahrenheit FPC 700 100 90 600 80 TEC 500 70 400 60 50 Forecast 300 40 200 30 Actual FPL 20 100 10 Average Temp 0 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 City of Tallahassee (TAL) electricity load, 2018 vs. past two years Source: Florida PSC, EIA megawatts (previous years aligned by week number & day of week to 2018 data) 700 600 500 City of Tallahassee (TAL) Balancing Authority 400 Total Customers 300 2016 115,556 customers, 1% of all 200 customers in Florida 2017 100 2018 Source: EIA 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

City of Tallahassee (TAL) net generation by energy source megawatts 600

500 Other Solar 400 Wind Hydro 300 Oil Nuclear 200 Natural Gas 100 Coal

0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA

Tallahassee, Florida weather wind & gust speed (mph) 1 hr precipitation (inches) 100 2.0 90 1.8 Gust Speed 80 1.6 (mph) 70 1.4 60 1.2 Prior data 50 not 1.0 Wind Speed 40 shown 0.8 (mph) 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 Precipitation 0 0.0 (inches) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 Source: NOAA 5 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

DUKE ENERGY FLORIDA (FPC) SOCO/AEC Current electricity load data through hour ending 3 pm TAL JEA

Duke Energy Florida (FPC) Apalachicola, Florida GVL Electricity load, actual vs. forecast Hourly average temperature megawatts degrees Fahrenheit FPC 12,000 100 90 TEC 10,000 80 8,000 70 60 6,000 50 Forecast 40 4,000 30 Actual FPL 2,000 20 10 Average Temp 0 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: Florida PSC, EIA Duke Energy Florida (FPC) electricity load, 2018 vs. past two years megawatts (previous years aligned by week number & day of week to 2018 data) 12,000

10,000 Duke Energy Florida (FPC) 8,000 Balancing Authority Total Customers 6,000 1,859,620 customers, 18% of all 4,000 2016 customers in Florida 2017 2,000 2018 Source: EIA 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

Duke Energy Florida (FPC) net generation by energy source megawatts 8,000 7,000 Other 6,000 Solar 5,000 Wind Hydro 4,000 Oil 3,000 Nuclear 2,000 Natural Gas Coal 1,000 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA Apalachicola, Florida weather wind & gust speed (mph) 1 hr precipitation (inches) 100 2.0 90 1.8 Gust Speed 80 1.6 (mph) 70 1.4 60 Prior data 1.2 50 not 1.0 Wind Speed 40 shown 0.8 (mph) 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 Precipitation 0 0.0 (inches) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 Source: NOAA 5 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

GAINESVILLE REGIONAL UTILITIES (GVL) SOCO/AEC Current electricity load data through hour ending 3 pm TAL JEA

Gainesville Regional Utilities (GVL) Gainesville, Florida GVL Electricity load, actual vs. forecast Hourly average temperature megawatts degrees Fahrenheit FPC 500 100 450 90 TEC 400 80 350 70 300 60 250 50 Forecast 200 40 150 30 Actual FPL 100 20 50 10 Average Temp 0 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: Florida PSC, EIA Gainesville Regional Utilities (GVL) electricity load, 2018 vs. past two years megawatts (previous years aligned by week number & day of week to 2018 data) 500 450 400 Gainesville Regional Utilities 350 (GVL) Balancing Authority 300 Total Customers 250 2016 200 97,246 customers, 1% of all 150 2017 customers in North Carolina 100 2018 50 Source: EIA 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

Gainesville Regional Utilities (GVL) net generation by energy source megawatts 200 180 Other 160 Solar 140 Wind 120 Hydro 100 Oil 80 Nuclear 60 Natural Gas 40 Coal 20 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA Gainesville, Florida weather wind & gust speed (mph) 1 hr precipitation (inches) 100 2.0 90 1.8 Gust Speed 80 1.6 (mph) 70 1.4 60 Prior data 1.2 50 not 1.0 Wind Speed 40 shown 0.8 (mph) 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 Precipitation 0 0.0 (inches) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 Source: NOAA 5 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

TAMPA ELECTRIC COMPANY (TEC) SOCO/AEC Current electricity load data through hour ending 3 pm TAL JEA

Tampa Electric Company (TEC) Tampa, Florida GVL Electricity load, actual vs. forecast Hourly average temperature megawatts degrees Fahrenheit FPC 5,000 100 4,500 90 TEC 4,000 80 3,500 70 3,000 60 2,500 50 Forecast 2,000 40 1,500 30 Actual FPL 1,000 20 500 10 Average Temp 0 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: Florida PSC, EIA Tampa Electric Company (TEC) electricity load, 2018 vs. past two years megawatts (previous years aligned by week number & day of week to 2018 data) 5,000 4,500 4,000 Tampa Electric Company 3,500 (TEC) Balancing Authority 3,000 2,500 2016 Total Customers 2,000 747,493 customers, 7% of all 1,500 2017 customers in Florida 1,000 500 2018 Source: EIA 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

Tampa Electric Company (TEC) net generation by energy source megawatts 3,500 3,000 Other 2,500 Solar Wind 2,000 Hydro Oil 1,500 Nuclear 1,000 Natural Gas Coal 500 0 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 Source: EIA

Tampa, Florida weather wind & gust speed (mph) 1 hr precipitation (inches) 100 2.0 90 1.8 Gust Speed 80 1.6 (mph) 70 1.4 60 Prior data 1.2 50 not 1.0 Wind Speed 40 shown 0.8 (mph) 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 Precipitation 0 0.0 (inches) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 Source: NOAA 5 EIA Hurricane Michael Electricity Status Report Tracking the electricity impact of Hurricane Michael on the Southeastern region of the United States

DATA SOURCES & NOTES

• Hourly electricity load, load forecast, and generation by energy source: EIA-930 data. Note that information submitted by reporting entities (balancing authorities (BAs)) is preliminary data and made available "as-is" by EIA. Neither EIA nor reporting entities are responsible for reliance on the data for any specific use. See the EIA-930 user guide for more information about the EIA-930 data collection.

BAs are responsible for assuring in real-time that electricity supply and demand are balanced within a specified geographical footprint. An electric utility that functions as a balancing authority will likely have an area of responsibility that extends beyond its service territory, providing grid balancing services to other electric power companies. For example, the Southern Company Services (SOCO) balancing authority is responsible for balancing the grid in an area that extends beyond Southern Company’s utility service territories.

There can be systematic differences between BAs’ reported actual and forecast load because of the way some BAs operate their systems and EIA’s reporting requirements. Examples include PowerSouth Energy Cooperative (AEC) and Duke Energy Florida (FPC).

Below are direct links to EIA-930 webpages (with select data series) or excel files (with all data series and a full history) for the balancing authorities highlighted in this report: • North & South Carolina region: website • Southeast region: website • Florida region: website • Southern Company Services (SOCO): website, Excel file (includes generation by energy source) • PowerSouth Energy Cooperative (AEC): website, Excel file (includes generation by energy source) • City of Tallahassee (TAL): website, Excel file (includes generation by energy source) • Duke Energy Florida (FPC): website, Excel file (includes generation by energy source) • Gainesville Regional Utilities (GVL): website, Excel file (includes generation by energy source) • Tampa Electric Company (TEC): website, Excel file (includes generation by energy source) • Weather data: NOAA data for the cities and locations listed below: • Panama City, FL: Tyndall Airforce Base Airport • Pensacola, FL: Pensacola Regional Airport • Tallahassee, FL: Tallahassee Regional Airport • Apalachicola, FL: Apalachicola Municipal Airport • Gainesville, FL: Gainesville Regional Airport • Tampa, FL: Tampa International Airport • Nuclear plant outages: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, displayed on EIA’s Status of U.S. Nuclear Outages. The NRC updates its reactor status information once each morning on business days. The NRC information is supplemented as necessary by press reports. • Number of customer outages: Florida Public Service Commission Hurricane Michael outage report, poweroutage.us, and utility websites. A “customer” typically represents one metered location. The number of customers is not equivalent to the number of persons without power. Customers include all types of power purchasers but are primarily residences. The outage estimates presented in the commentary section of this report are a snapshot in time. Outage numbers can change rapidly as weather conditions deteriorate or improve and repairs are effectuated.