and Environs, Quarters 1–4, 2015

Market Survey Commercial

Industrial | Warehouse | Logistics

Grossmann & Berger’s promise: Market transparency. Market Survey Hamburg Quarters 1–4, 2015 Industrial / Warehouse / Logistics

Industrial | Warehouse | Logistics

Key figures industrial

Q 1–4 Q 1–4 2014 2015 Take-up of space in m²...... 453,000... 590,000 +30 % Share of owner- occupiers in %...... 29.8...... 28.2 Premium rent in €/m²/mth...... 5.60...... 5.70 Average rent in €/m²/mth...... 4.60...... 4.80 Premium return in %...... 6.90...... 6.00

Take-up of space Take-up of space 2011–Q 4, 2015 (in 000s m², incl. owner-occupiers) Year on year, take-up of industrial, warehousing and logistics space 800 in Hamburg and its environs rose by about a third in 2015 to a total of

700 590,000 m². The total letting volume in 2015 was 424,000 m²; owner occu- piers accounted for some 28% of overall take-up, a proportion very similar 600 10-year average (2006–2015): approx. 493,000 m² Q4 to that seen in 2014. Take-up of space shot up to surpass the five-year 500 128 average of some 560,000 m². In 2015 market activity was characterized

400 by a high number of transactions for large amounts of space. Overall, 38 agreements for over 5,001 m² of space were noted (2014: 17), of which 300 eleven fell into the 10,001 m² or more category (2014: seven). By space oc- 200 cupied, the largest agreement in 2015 was for 30,600 m² of logistics space 100 plus around 1,000 m² of offices in the Prologis Park Hamburg- 740 560 450 453 590 (Am Genter Ufer 6, sub-market Hamburg South), let to a food logistics 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q4, company in the 1st quarter. In the 3rd quarter the industrial enterprise 2015 Still GmbH signed the second-biggest agreement of the year, a pre-letting contract for some 25,000 m² of space in a project development (- deich 2-10, sub-market Hamburg East). The biggest new contract in the Take-up of space Q 1–4, 2015 by size 4th quarter of 2015 was concluded by Räder-Vogel, a manufacturer of (in 000s m², incl. owner-occupiers) and no. of lettings wheels and castors, for 10,900 m² of space (Bredowstraße 20, sub-market Hamburg East). The biggest owner-occupier agreement of 2015 related to 200 18,000 m² of space at Lanzstrasse 1 in Buchholz in der Nordheide (sub- 180 market South West Environs) purchased by a tobacco goods company. 160 140 Over the course of 2015 take-up was distributed very evenly between 120 logistics/forwarders (35.1%) and trade (31.7%). All of the eight biggest 100 74 60 19 27 11 agreements in 2015 were signed by companies from these two sectors. 80 In the previous year the largest share of take-up, 47%, was attributable 60 to logistics/forwarding companies. Whereas 2014 ended with Hamburg 40 and Hamburg Environs accounting for half of take-up each, 2015 saw a 20 8% 19% 13% 32% 29% marked shift towards space within city limits, where the year closed 45 110 77 189 170 0 with 69% of the total. The two sub-markets Hamburg East (28.8%) and up to up to up to up to over Hamburg South (26.5%) accounted for the largest volumes of take-up. 1,000 3,000 5,000 10,000 10,001 Eight of the eleven largest agreements by space taken were concluded in these markets. With shares of about 10% each, the next-highest figures

page 2 Market Survey Hamburg Quarters 1–4, 2015 Industrial / Warehouse / Logistics

were posted in North West Environs and South West Environs. These re- Take-up of space Q 1–4, 2015 sults owed much to six agreements for between 5,500 and 7,000 m² of by industry (in %) space in North West Environs and the previously mentioned tobacco goods trading company’s purchase of 18,000 m² in Buchholz in der Nord- Other heide (South West Environs).

13.8% Logistics Rents 35.1%

Production/ 19.4% By the end of 2015 the average rent for industrial, warehousing and lo- industry/ trades&crafts gistics space in Hamburg and its environs had risen twenty cents above the level in the previous year to €4.80/m²/month. The premium rent rose

31.7% too, climbing ten cents to €5.70/m²/month. The volume of agreements shifted significantly in the rent categories €4.00/m²/month or less and Trade €5.51/m²/month or more, leading to the rise in rental rates observed.

Investments

Premium and average rents The volume of investment transactions in logistics and industrial prop- 2011–Q 4, 2015 (net in €/m²/mth) erties in Hamburg and its environs totalled some €310m in 2015, a good 140 % higher than in 2014. This significant increase results, first and 7.00 Premium rent foremost, from the sale of the H&M logistics centre in Hamburg-Allermöhe 5.80 5.80 6.00 5.70 5.60 5.70 for a sum in the low three-digit millions. With the exception of this “outlier” transaction with a 5.5% yield, the premium return on logistics and indus- 5.00 trial property investments in Hamburg was 6.0% by the end of 2015, down 4.90 4.80 4.70 4.60 from 6.9% a year before. The premium yield is therefore only slightly higher 4.00 4.40 Average rent than the national average of 5.8%. Germany’s political and economic sta- 3.00 bility keeps the demand for logistics property investments high. Because premium yields remain around 200 basis points higher than the returns 2.00 on office and retail properties, and because interest rates are likewise stubbornly low, industrial, warehousing and logistics properties will con- 1.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q4, tinue to play an important role in 2016, when national and international 2015 investors are choosing assets for their portfolios. How far the record result of 2015 can be topped this year will crucially depend on the market avail- ability of other large portfolios. Take-up of space Q 1–4, 2015 by rent Outlook (in 000s m², incl. owner-occupiers) and no. of lettings In view of an economic environment that will probably change very little, 160 the take-up of industrial, warehousing and logistics space in Hamburg and 140 environs should total around 525,000 m² in 2016. Even though Hamburg 120 will not be hosting the Olympic Games, it is not to be expected that com-

100 panies will find the sort of commercial properties they are looking for inside Hamburg city limits within the near future. Because work is due to 80 start on a variety of development projects that include some speculative 60 space in the environs (South East and South West) and in view of unabated 17 37 25 5 25 35 46 40 demand for space we expect to see more take-up activity shifting south

20 10% 21% 11% 2% 18% 28% 9% beyond city limits. This process will be helped by the fact that practi- 61 126 67 11 105 167 54 cally all of the empty space and new developments in Hamburg Port (sub- 0 up to up to up to up to over Owner- n/a market Hamburg South) were let in 2015. 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 5.50 occupiers

page 3 Market Survey Hamburg Quarters 1–4, 2015 Industrial / Warehouse / Logistics

Hamburg and environs: overview of sub-markets for industrial, warehouse and logistics space Q 1–4, 2015

Take-up of industrial space in m² incl. owner- Year on year Average rent Sub-market occupiers Share in % change in % No. of lettings Share in % in €/m²/mth 1 City west 35,400 6.0% -16.9% 14 7.3% 4.90 € 2 City North-west 14,800 2.5% -39.6% 12 6.2% 4.80 € 3 City North-East 28,900 4.9% 99.3% 18 9.6% 5.20 € 4 City East 169,900 28.8% 254.0% 52 27.4% 4.70 € 5 City South 156,400 26.5% 62.9% 34 18.0% 4.90 € Total City Area 405,400 68.7% 79.7% 130 68.5% 4.80 € 6 Environs North-West 59,000 10.0% -6.9% 27 14.0% 8.40 € 7 Environs North-east 25,400 4.3% 464.4% 12 6.2% 3.90 € 8 Environs East 26,000 4.4% -5.8% 10 5.1% 4.60 € 9 Environs South-East 13,000 2.2% 15.0% 2 1.1% - 10 Environs South-West 61,200 10.4% -49.3% 10 5.1% 4.20 € Total Environs 184,600 31.3% -18.8% 60 31.5% 5.00 €

Total City and environs 590,000 100.0% 30.2% 190 100.0% 4.80 €

21 Hamburg and environs: overview of sub-markets for industrial, warehouse and logistics space

Quickborn Bargte- Elmshorn A 7 heide A 23 Tornesch Norder- stedt Wohldorf- Ohlstedt Steinburg A 1 Uetersen Glashütte 6 Lemsahl- Mellingstedt ENVIRONS Garstedt Ahrensburg NORTH-WEST Langen- horn Poppen- büttel Pinneberg Hummels- Volks- CITY büttel dorf 2 Berne 7 NORTH-WEST Wellings- Fuhls- büttel CITY ENVIRONS Airport büttel Ohlsdorf 3 Hamburg NORTH-EAST NORTH-EAST Groß- Steils- Trittau Eidel- hoop Schenefeld stedt Niendorf Borstel Lok- Winter- HAMBURG stedt hude Farmsen Sülldorf Stellingen Eppendorf Tonndorf Iser- Bahren- brook Schulau CITY Osdorf feld 1 Barmbek Bars- Elbe Nien- Groß Eims- Marienthal WEST Flottbek büttel Außen büttel A 24 stedten alster A 24 Othmar- St. Pauli Horn Glinde schen Altona Cranz Rothenburgs- Jork Stein- A 1 ort werder Kleiner Walters- Grasbrook Billbrook Neuen- hof A 255 felde 8 Alten- Lohbrügge Reinbek werder Wilhelmsburg ENVIRONS Schwarzenbek Damm- CITY Rübke 5 hausen SOUTH Taten- EAST Neukloster Stillhorn berg Moor- CITY Neugraben- burg Moor- Spaden- 4 werder A 253 land EAST A 25 -Fischbek Buxtehude Ochsen- Neuland Haus- werder bruch Neu A 7 Eissen- Gut A 1 Fünfhausen Geest- Wulmstorf dorf Moor hacht Harsefeld Alten- Marms- torf gamme Rönneburg Howe Kirch- werder Sinstorf Zollen- Neuen- Marschacht spieker gamme Elbe Rosen- 10 garten Seevetal ENVIRONS A 261 SOUTH-WEST A 7 A 250 A 1 A 1 Stelle Winsen Rade (Luhe) 9 Wenzendorf ENVIRONS SOUTH-EAST A 7 Buchholz A 39 Following surrounding areas are included: Henstedt-Ulzburg, Kaltenkirchen, Wenzendorf and Lüneburg.

Seppensen page 4 Market Survey Hamburg Quarters 1–4, 2015 Glossary / Definitions

Glossary / Definitions

Take-up of space Contact Take-up of space is the total of all space let plus that sold to, or finished Stefan Harder by or for an owner-occupier during the period under review. The operative date for inclusion in the statistic is the date on which the lease or pur- Graduate in real estate chase agreement was signed. Lease renewals are not counted as take- management up. The basis for the floor space data is the guideline for calculating the Head of industrial leasable space for commercial premises (MF/G). Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 592 Email: s.harder @ grossmann-berger.de Premium rent The premium rent relates to the top 3 % of the market for new lets (not counting owner-occupiers) during the 12 months just ended and is stated Martin Büchler as the average of such rents. Graduate in business administration Average rent Real estate consultant The average rent is calculated by taking the individual rents agreed in all Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 573 new leases signed, weighting them by the amount of space rented and Email: m.buechler @ grossmann-berger.de computing the mean value.

Premium return Felix Krumreich The premium return is the (gross) initial return on excellently appointed top quality properties in the very best locations.

Real estate consultant Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 528 Email: f.krumreich @ grossmann-berger.de

Peter Plentner

Photo credits: Cover: © Shutterstock, page 2: © Panthermedia, page 5: Bleichenbrücke 9.

We draw your attention to the fact that all statements made here are non-binding. Most of the information is based on third-party reports. The sole intention of this market survey is to provide general infomation Qualified banker for our clients. Real estate consultant Grossmann & Berger GmbH • Bleichenbrücke 9 (Bleichenhof) • D-20354 Hamburg Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 82 Tel.: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 0 • Fax: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 36 • [email protected] • www.grossmann-berger.de Managing directors: Andreas Rehberg, Holger Michaelis, Lars Seidel, Axel Steinbrinker Email: p.plentner @ grossmann-berger.de Chairman of the supervisory board: Dr. Jörg Wildgruber • Registered office Hamburg Registered at Hamburg no. B 25866

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