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Full-Reserve Banking: Separating Money Creation

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Full-Reserve Banking: Separating Money Creation Department of Political and Economic Studies University of Helsinki Helsinki FULL-RESERVE BANKING SEPARATING MONEY CREATION FROM BANK LENDING Patrizio Lainà ACADEMIC DISSERTATION To be presented, with the permission of the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Helsinki, for public examination in lecture room 5, University main building, on 20 October 2018, at 12 noon. Helsinki 2018 Publications of the Faculty of Social Sciences 89 (2018) © Patrizio Lainà Supervised by: Heikki Patomäki and Pekka Sauramo Reviewed by: Guido Montani and Jonathan Perraton Opponent: Jesper Jespersen Distribution and sales: Unigrafia, Helsinki https://shop.unigrafia.fi ISBN 978-951-51-3333-5 (pbk.) ISBN 978-951-51-3334-2 (PDF) ISSN 2343-273X (pbk.) ISSN 2343-2748 (web) Unigrafia Helsinki 2018 ABSTRACT In this dissertation, I study full-reserve banking (FRB). Currently, most money is created by private banks in the form of bank deposits simultaneously with the making of loans. FRB means that the prerogative to create money is shifted from private banks to public responsibility, or money is fixed to a commodity. In other words, under FRB the money supply consists of government money (i.e. cash, central bank reserves and government securities) or commodity money (e.g. gold or silver). FRB would prohibit private money creation, at least in the sense that the government would not guarantee repayment or par clearance of private monies or money-like assets. This would mean that there would be no more deposit insurance and the central bank would not act as the lender of last resort for private actors. FRB is not a new idea. In fact, FRB was tried in the UK and the US in the 19th century. In the UK, the Bank Charter Act of 1844 prohibited private money creation by requiring that bank-issued notes (which were the prevailing means of payment at the time) should be fully backed by government money or gold. The National Acts of 1863 and 1864 implemented FRB in the US. According to the available statistics, the FRB experiments did not destabilize the economy. Instead, most macroeconomic indicators pointed upwards. Banks, however, were able to undermine FRB quite quickly as the FRB requirement did not include bank deposits. Consequently, bank deposits quickly became the dominant means of payment and continue to occupy that position today. FRB proposals have been popular, particularly after serious financial crises. Following the Great Depression, the US came close to adopting FRB again, but the idea was watered down in the Banking Acts of 1933 (better known as the Glass-Steagall Act) and 1935, which separated deposit banks from investment banks. After the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–8, there was a new wave of FRB proposals, but none of them has been implemented. Currently, there are no economies in which most money does not come into existence as a result of bank lending. Complete adoption of FRB seems unlikely in any country in the near future. Due to technological progress, however, partial adoption of FRB in the form of “digital cash” (deposited currency) seems very likely. In this dissertation, I try to make a case for money creation being a public responsibility. I find that FRB has a positive impact on economic stability and it has the potential to foster democracy, while it is only slightly able to promote social equality. Whether it can advance ecological sustainability is more ambiguous. FRB would secure the payment system and reduce moral hazard by eliminating the need to bail out banks and insure deposits. FRB would also generate significant seigniorage revenue for the government, for instance, 6 3 billion euros on average annually in Finland. Thus, it has the potential to expand the sphere of democratic decision-making, although this is not an automatic consequence of FRB. Moreover, according to some surveys, people would prefer that money creation became a public responsibility. Probably the most convincing critique presented against FRB is that near- monies could emerge and undermine FRB, as happened in the 19th century. Fears that FRB would cause credit crunches or excessively volatile interest rates are not well justified, as most detailed proposals based on public money include flexible elements that would make it relatively easy to avoid them. The critique, however, does apply to FRB versions in which the money supply would consist solely of commodity money. I also examine FRB in a theoretical stock-flow consistent model. The model builds on post-Keynesian economic theory – in particular, the Monetary Circuit Theory and the Modern Monetary Theory. I conduct an experiment with the model to study what happens when money is created through government spending in an FRB system. I compare the results to the current monetary system and to the case when government spending is increased under FRB but without money creation. I find that in all cases an increase in government spending increases output, employment and inflation in a very similar manner. Unlike in other cases, however, money creation under FRB leads to a permanent reduction in consolidated government debt, thus increasing the fiscal space of the government. Moreover, an increase in central bank reserves translates into an almost equal increase in demand deposits. A major change in the money supply leads to relatively smooth and small changes in interest rates. In other experiments the findings are very similar when money is created in an FRB system through tax cuts or citizen’s dividends. However, creating money through quantitative easing (repaying government debt) affects only monetary aggregates and interest rates, but not the real economy. Finally, I find that credit crunches under FRB seem possible but rare. The overall findings of this PhD thesis are largely in line with the previous literature. This study is strictly in line with previous formal models of FRB as almost all of them find FRB a positive reform. Even though I find positive results on a more general level as well, the previous discussion on whether FRB would be beneficial for economic stability, democracy, social equality and ecological sustainability is mixed. The only way to obtain reliable results is to implement FRB and see. 4 TIIVISTELMÄ Väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan täysreservipankkijärjestelmää. Nykyisin suurimman osan yhteiskunnan rahavarannosta luovat yksityiset pankit lainanannon yhteydessä. Täysreservipankkijärjestelmä tarkoittaa, että pankkien rahanluontioikeus siirretään julkisen vallan tehtäväksi tai raha kiinnitetään johonkin hyödykkeeseen. Toisin sanoen täysreservipankkijärjestelmässä yhteiskunnan rahavaranto koostuisi ainoastaan julkisesta rahasta (eli käteisestä, keskuspankkireserveistä tai valtion velkakirjoista) tai hyödykerahasta (esim. kullasta tai hopeasta). Täysreservipankkijärjestelmä estäisi yksityisen rahan luonnin ainakin siinä mielessä, ettei julkinen valta takaa yksityisen rahan tai rahankaltaisten varallisuuserien takaisinmaksua taikka vaihdettavuutta kiinteällä vaihtokurssilla. Tämä tarkoittaa, että esimerkiksi pankkien talletussuojasta luovuttaisiin, eikä keskuspankki toimisi enää viimekätisenä lainoittajana yksityisille toimijoille. Täysreservipankkijärjestelmä ei ole uusi idea. Sitä jopa kokeiltiin 1800- luvulla Britanniassa ja Yhdysvalloissa. Britanniassa vuonna 1844 ja Yhdysvalloissa vuosina 1863 ja 1864 säädettiin lait, jotka edellyttivät, että pankkien liikkeelle laskemat setelit, jotka toimivat vallitsevina maksuvälineinä siihen aikaan, täytyi taata täysimääräisesti julkisella rahalla tai kullalla. Saatavilla olevien tilastojen mukaan kokeilut eivät aiheuttaneet taloudellista epävakautta, vaan pikemminkin suurin osa makrotaloudellisista indikaattoreista osoitti ylöspäin. Pankit kuitenkin pystyivät melko lyhyessä ajassa kiertämään sääntelyä, sillä täysreservivelvoite ei ulottunut pankkitalletuksiin. Niinpä pankkitalletuksista tuli nopeasti pääasiallinen maksuväline ja ne ovat sitä yhä tänäkin päivänä. Etenkin vakavien rahoituskriisien jälkeen esitykset täysreservipankkijärjestelmän puolesta ovat olleet suosittuja. 1930-luvun suuren laman jälkeen täysreservipankkijärjestelmä melkein otettiin käyttöön Yhdysvalloissa, mutta lainsäädäntö vesittyi matkalla ja tuotti tunnetun Glass— Steagall-lain, joka erotti talletuspankkitoiminnan investointipankkitoiminnasta. Vuosien 2007–08 globaalin finanssikriisin jälkeen tehtiin monia esityksiä täysreservipankkijärjestelmään siirtymiseksi, mutta yhtäkään ei ole toteutettu. Nykyään ei ole yhtään valtiota, jossa suurin osa rahavarannosta ei syntyisi pankkien lainaustoiminnan yhteydessä. Täysreservipankkijärjestelmän toteuttaminen täysimääräisesti näyttää lähitulevaisuudessa epätodennäköiseltä missään maassa. Sen sijaan täysreservipankkijärjestelmän osittainen toteuttaminen ”sähköisen käteisen” muodossa vaikuttaa teknologisen kehityksen ansiosta hyvinkin mahdolliselta. Tässä väitöskirjassa esitän argumentin, että rahan luonti pitäisi olla julkisen vallan tehtävä. Yleisemmän arvion mukaan 5 täysreservipankkijärjestelmällä olisi selvästi positiivinen vaikutus talouden vakauteen ja se edistäisi demokratiaa, mutta sillä olisi vain lievästi positiivinen vaikutus sosiaaliseen tasa-arvoon. Huomattavasti kyseenalaisempaa on, pystyisikö se edistämään ekologista kestävyyttä. Argumentoin, että täysreservipankkijärjestelmä turvaisi yhteiskunnan maksujärjestelmää ja vähentäisi moraalikatoa poistamalla julkiselta sektorilta tarpeen pelastaa pankkeja ja taata talletuksia. Laskelmani mukaan se myös tuottaisi merkittävää seigniorage-tuloa valtiolle,
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