Japanese Semiconductor Industry Conference
April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo Bay Hilton International Tokyo, Japan Dataoyest nn acompanyof liD ThcIUnKBradstiKtCorporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, Califwiua 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex: 171973 Fax: (408) 437-^)292
Sales/Service Offices:
UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE EASTERN U.S. Dataquest UK Limited Dataquest SARL Dataquest Boston 13th Floor, Cemrepoint Tour Gallieni 2 1740 Massachusetts Ave. 103 New Oxford Street 36, avenue Gallieni Boxborough, MA 01719-2209 London WCIA IDD 93175 Bagnolet Cedex (508) 264-4373 England France Tfelex: 171973 01-379-6257 (1)48 97 31 00 Fax: (508) 635-0183 Tfelex: 266195 Tfelex: 233 263 Fax: 01-240-3653 Fax: (1)48 97 34 00
GERMANY JAPAN KOREA Dataquest GmbH Dataquest Japan, Ltd. Dataquest t^rea Rosenkavalierplatz 17 Tkiyo Ginza Building/2nd Floor 63-1 Chungjung-ro, 3Ka D-8000 Munich 81 7-14-16 Ginza, Chuo-ku Seodaemun-ku West Genaairy Tokyo 104 J^an Seoul, Korea (089)91 10 64 (03)546-3191 (02)392-7273-5 Tfelex: 5218070 Tfelex: 32768 Tfelex: 27926 Fax: (089)91 21 89 Fax: (03)546-3198 Fax: (02)745-3199
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© 1989 Dataquest Incorporated
Dataquest nn a company of MMmmTh The Due Dun &n &Bradstree Bra t Corporation
1989 JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE Stepping toward the 1990s April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo Bay Hilton International Tokyo, Japan
THURSDAY, April 20 8:30 a.m. Registration 2nd Floor Foyer 9:00 a.m. Welcome Crystal Grand Ballnmm A. B Manny Fernandez President Dataquest Incorporated 9:30 a.m. Japanese Industry Outlook Crystal Grand Ballroom A . 8 Osamu Ohtake Director. Japan Components Group Dataquest Japan Limited 10:00 a.m. World Semiconductor Outlook Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Hal Feeney Vice President and Director Components Group Dataquest- Incorporated 10:30 a.m. An Overview of the Semiconductor Industry in the '90s and Our Managerial Perspective Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Tomihiro Matsumura Executive Vice President and Director NEC Corporation :00 a.m. MITI's View of the Semiconductor Trade Issue. , Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Yukio Honda Director. Industrial Electronics Division Machinery and Information Industries Bureau 11:30 a.m. Mm Trade Issues t..,:.:, ..Crystal Grand Ballroom A. 8 Andrew A. Procassini President 12:00 Noon Semiconduaor Industry Association 1:30 p.m. Lunch •: ... . .;i...,..;. ,1 . f, Asana^i What Does 1992 Mean to the European IC Market? .. i,,,, Cn.stal Grand Ballroom A. 8 Cees W.M. Koot Managing Director. Philips Components Division Business Unit Integrated Circuits 2:00 p.m. Philips International B.V. Hong Kong toward 1997 v : .. •. ;.:... , . .; v , . ,...,. . • - Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B K.Y. Yeung Director of Industry 2:30 p.m. Industry Depanmem. Hong Kong Government Capital Spending in 1990's Semiconductor Industry .,:... Crystal Grand Ballroom A. 8 Hideharu Egawa Vice President and Director of the Board 3:00 p m. Toshiba Corporation 3:30 p.m. Break ,:...... ,...: ^-.. .-^.. i .....:, ,, :...Crystal Grand Ballroom C The Present State and Future of the TRON Spec Microprocessor ,.,., Crystal Grand Ballroom A. 8 Kazuo Kimbara Board Director. Group E.xecutive Electronic Devices Group Hitachi. Ltd. iConrinuedi
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 4:00 p.m. HDTV View in an Age of 1990s . v ,.,,..... Cnstat Grand Ballroom A. B Yoshiro Nakamura Executive Director General of Engineering NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) 5:00 p.m. Cocktails i. vi: i. ..;... .vv.iv.;v;i .^w.-^ -.-/f. <••.• •, • -Asunagi
FRIDAY, April 21 9:00 a.m. Panel Discussion ;.... ^. i v. ,...,.., Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Future Microprocessor—CISC vs. RISC Moderator: Hal Feeney Vice President and Director Components Group Dataquest Incorporated Panelists: K.C. Murphy Vice President Worldwide Applications Engineering Advanced Micro Devices. Inc. Dr. C. Gordon Bell Vice President. Research and Development Ardent Computer Corporation Dr. Tsugio Makimoto General Manager Semiconductor [)esign and Development Center Hitachi. Led. William O. Howe President Intel Japan K.K. Hajime Sasaki Vice President and Director NEC Corporation 12:00 Noon Lunch , isanagi 1:30 p.m. The Microprocessor Market in the '90s Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B William O. Howe President Intel Japan K.K. 2:00 p.m. Technical Computer System Trends in the '90s ;. ...;;.... .;...... Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Dr. C. Gordon Bell Vice President. Research and Development Ardent Computer Corporation 2:30 p.m. Perspective on the ISDN .,,.,..,.,;.., ,,-.,, Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Dr. Moriji Kuwabara Executive Vice President Senior Executive Manager Engineering Strategy. Planning Headquaners NTT 3:00 p.m. Semiconductor Equipment—Future Trends :• - .,...., ....,. ^ Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Hideki Yoshinari General Manager Semiconductor Production Equipment Development Center Kosugi Plant Canon Inc. 3:30 p.m. Closing Remarks .:.,.,;., -., ;...... ,.. ;; .^.,.... Crystal Grand Ballroom A. B Masahiro Miyagawa President Dataquest Japan Limited Conference Adjourns DataQuest nn accmipanyof MMMM TheDun&Brad^reetCorporation Dataoyest nil aaxnpanyof IID ThcDun&BradsticetCorpOTatK
1989 Japanese Semiconductor Industry Conference Market Research Survey
In order to continually improve the types of products and services Dataquest provides for semiconductor users and manufac turers, we need to better understand your information needs. Please help us by completing the following questionnaire.
1. Which of the following best describes your position/title?
CEO, President, ^^ce President Product Management Strategic Planning/Business Development Operations Management Sales and Marketing Management Purchasing/Vendor Selection Product Development/R&D/ other Engineering Management
2. How did you learn about this conference?
The brochure was mailed directly to me. Someone in my compaiQr gave me the brochure. I saw the announcement in a newspaper or magazine. I heard an announcement at a previous Dataquest meeting. Someone from Dataquest called me. Other
3. Rank the reasons you attended this conference in order of importance (1 being the most important). Circle only those ^plicable to you. Most Least To hear Oataquest's forecasts 2 4 5 To hear industry leaders 2 4 5 Tb meet nry customers 2 4 5 To talk with Dataquest analysts 2 4 5 To meet my counterparts 2 4 5 To hear about and discuss critical industry issues 2 4 5 To help evaluate our investmeitt portfolio 2 4 5 To meet my suppliers 2 4 5 lb learn about my competition 2 4 5 To examine new Dataquest products I've heard about 2 4 5 To learn about new markets and sales leads for n^ company's 2 4 5 products or services
Highest Lowest 4. How well did the conference meet these objectives? 1 2 3
•(Sw*
Dataquest Japan, Ltd., Taiyo Ginza Building/2nd Floor, 7-14-16 Ginza, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104 Japan (03)546-3191 Telex: 32768 Fax: (03)546-3198 Highest Lowest 5. How would you rate the conference fecilities? Guest rooms 12 3 4 5 Meeting rooms 12 3 4 5 Meals 12 3 4 5 Recreation 12 3 4 5 6. Check each previous year that you have attended a Dataquest Js^anese Semiconductor Industry Conference. 1988 1987 1986 7. In the future, should the length of this conference be: Shorter Longer The same 8. Topics/speakers you would like to hear in the future:
9. Are you a Dataquest client? Yes No 10. Additional comments:
Name (Optional) Attendee Lists Japanese Semiconductor Industry Conference
Stepping toward the 1990s'
Attendees' List
April 20.21, 1989
Tokyo Bay Hilton International
Tokyo, Japan
1989 Dataquest Japan Ltd. April 20th. - Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ADC Corporat i on
Kenjiro Terada, Director Design Engineering I
AMD Japan Ltd.
Glen Balzer, Vice President
Hitsuo Ohtsuka, Area Sales Manager
ASC 11 Corporat ion
Ryoichi Kurata. Deputy General Manager Systei Div. Silicon Software Sales & Hktg
AT8.T
Roian Kowalchuk, Manager Intellectual Property
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Makoto Saito. Manager Technical Inforiation Systets
Acer Incorporated
Alan P. Chang, Associate Vice President
Advanced Micro Devices. Inc.
K. C. Murphy, Vice President Worldwide Applications Engineering
Advantest Corporation
Shinpei Kaaata, Managing Director Sales Division
Katsuaki Hinaii, Director & Manager of ATE Sales ATE Sales Department
Air Products & Cheiicals, Inc.
Dean Duffy. Marketing Manager
Terry A. Francis, Technology Hanager
Allegiance Group. Inc.
Hichale Halloran, President Chief Executive Office
- 1 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Analog Devices K.K
Junichi Ohata, Assistant Manager Sales Aduinistration
Anelva Corporation
Hideo Mito, General Manager Planning Office
Apollo Computer Pte Ltd
James T. O'Bray, Manager Asian Manufacturing Operations
Applied Materials Japan
Jiro Kitaura, Director Corporate Strategic Planning
Ardent Coiputer Corporation
C. Gordon Bell, Vice President Research S. Development
Asahi Cheiical Industry Co., Ltd.
.Toshio Inoue, EI Engineering
Asah i Glass Co,, Ltd.
Takao Terakado, Member of The Board. Gen.Manager Electronic Products Division
Asahi Kasei Microsystems Co., Ltd.
Masahiro Aoki, Manager Administration
Hiroshi Oyama, General Manager Strategic Planning
Asahi Mutual Life Insurance Company
Hiromi Watanabe, Fund Manager Separate Account Fund Managenent Office
Asian Wall Street Journal
Stephen iC. Yoder, Tokyo Correspondent
Bank of Tokyo, Ltd.
Kinji Tsunashima,
Yasushi Watanabe, Senior Portfolio Manager Portfolio Investment and Trading Division
,00^ n ,.-, r, °3'aq^sst Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Business Week
Neil Gross, Correspondent
Bussan Electric Systet Technology, Inc.
Saburo Haruchi, Director Sale's & Marketing
Canon Inc.
Shigeru Nishioka, Senior Managing Director Group Executive
Reiji Mayuzuai, General Manager Chief Executive Office
Hideki Yoshinari, General Manager Seaiconductor Product Equipment Developnent Center
Capital Research International
Masaaki Abe, Investment Analyst
Casio Computer Co., Ltd.
Katsuhiro Wakita, Manager Hamura R&D Center R&D Div.
Chuo Trust Bank
Manabu Mizuno, Fund Manager
Competitive Management Initiative
Matthew O'Callaghan, Analyst
Crestronics Co., Ltd
Katsuhiko Ohara, President
Cypress Semiconductor (Japan) K.K.
Takio Itoh, President Representative Director
Dai-Tokyo Kasai Investment Management Co.. Ltd.
Kouichi Serikawa. Dirctor And General Manager
Dai-ichi Mutural Life Insurance Company
Takashi Kawashima, Assistant Manager Investment Research Division - 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dai Nippon Printing Co., Ltd.
Taiotsu Koyana, Director Micro Porducts Division
lyao Yamabe, Executive Director Micro Products Division < Daido Mutual Life Insurance Company
Hiroshi Fujise, Separate Account Management Department
Daikin Industries, Ltd.
Yukio Mori, Manager Marketing & Business Planning Div. t Deipa Publicatins, Inc.
Kiiihiro NishigakI, Reporter
Digital Equipient Corporation Japan
Shinichi Akanuma, Section Manager R8.D Center LSI Dept.
Masaaki Morita, Operation Manager Marketing
ERSO
Jui-Lin Yang. Planning Engineer-
Eastian Kodak (Japan) Ltd.
Hodaka Hasebe, Buyer
Electronic Buyers News
Bob Kuzbyt, Associate Editor
Electronic Engineering Tines
David LaBoers, Tokyo Bureau Chief
Fuji Bank, Liii ted
Se ij i Aok i , Manager Industries 8< Corporate Research Division
Fuji Electric Co.. Ltd.
Toshio Hoshino, General Manager IC Marketing Electronics Group
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Fuji Electronic Coiponents Ltd.
Peter Mary, Vice President Rep. Director
Fuji Electronics Co., Ltd.
Kiyoshi Ikisu, Director and Sales Manager
Fuji Photo Fi1• Co., Ltd.
Eiichi Mizuki, Senior Technical Advisor
Fuji Xerox Co., Ltd.
Nobuaki Miyakawa, Principal Researcher Electronic laaging 8. Devices Research Lab.
Fujitsu Basic Software Corporation
Ikuo Oyasa, Sub-Manager Product Sales Division
Fujitsu Liiited
- Kenichi Hori, Assistant General Manager Int'l Engineering Support Div. Semiconductor
Toshio Karino, Deputy Manager CoBputer Circuit Engineering Dept.
Yoshisuke Kondo, General Manager SysteB LSI Marketing Division
Shinkichi Kuribayashi, Manager Seiiconductors Marketing Div.
Satoshi Maru, Manager Adainistration Dept. Electronic Devices Sector
Masaichi Shinoda, General Manager Seaiconductors Group Business Development Div.
Gea i n i Techno 1 ogy
Glenn Auaack. General Manager
Gold Star Co., Ltd.
Y. C. Bae, Manager Market i ng Div.
Choi Tong Won, Strategic Planning Section
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 HOYA Corporation
Shoichi Harada, General Manager Electronics Division Mask & Blank Dept
Harris K.K.
Hajiie Hiraide. Marketing Manager
Tsuyoshi Kobayashi, President
Hitachi, Ltd
Takashi Ito, Assistant Manager Mktg & Plnng Dept. Semicon & Integrated Circuits
Kazuo Kinbara, Board Director
Hiroiichi Koshikawa, Assistant Manager Mktg fit Plnng Dept. Sen icon & Integrated Circuits
Hiroii Kuwahara, Manager Materials Dept.
Tsugio Makimoto, General Manager Seii Design & Development Center
Hiroshi Nakagawa, Manager Mktg fii Plnng Dept. Seiicon fit Integrated Circuits
Yoshiki Okeda, Senior Engineer Intellectual Property Office Dept.Ill
Jinkichi Suto, Manager Mktg fit Plnng Dept. Seiicon fit Integrated Circuits
Masahiro Takegawa, Departnent Manager Mktg fit Plnng Dept. Seaicon fit Integrated Circuits
Masaii Tanaka. Deputy General Manager Device Developaent Center
Yoshio Toiinaga, Chef Engineer Seiiconductor Design fit Development Center
H i tach i Maxe11, Ltd
Toshio Doi, Executive Managing Director Research and Engineering Div.
Hitachi MetaIs, Ltd
Osaiu Otani. Manager Market Research Dept
Dataquest Jncorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Hitachi Research Institute
Takayuki Masuda, Researcher New Technology Research Group
Sakushi Nishioka, Researcher Managenent Systeis Group
Hong Kong GovernBent
K. Y. Yeung, Director of Industry
IBM Japan, Ltd.
Mike R. Crabtree, Senior Product Engineer Tokyo Systen Evaluation Laboratory
Ken J i Kunakawa , Yaaato Lab. Technology Strategy & Evaluation
Carl Mitchell, Business Manager CCP Far East Office
S. J. Park, Technical Manager CCP Far East Office
Ramiro Raiirez Jr., Staff Manager Tokyo Systei Evaluation Laboratory
Hiroyuki Sato, Manager Yasu, Technology Evaluation 8. Strategy
Kiyotaka Suetsugu, Development Engineering Staff Tokyo System Evaluation Laboratory
ICA Technologies, Ltd.
Takashi Hayakawa, Deputy General Manager Business Control Department
INMOS Japan K.K.
Yasushi Mochizuki, Sales Manager
INSEC
Toshio Kitamura, Managing Director
ITT Semiconductors Far East Ltd.
Kiyoshi Yajima, Marketing Manager Far East Marketing Division
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Coiporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 1 n t e 1 t- 0 r p 0 r a L i 0 n
Madeline J. Dovale, Analyst S. Translator Technology Development Strategic Research Group
Sarsh Robinson, Senior Researcher Technology Development Strategic Research Group Intel Japan K.K.
Nobuyuki Denda. Vice President
Tetsuro Fujii, Market Researcher Pres i dent Off i ce
Villi am 0. Howe. President
Mitsuo Shigehisa, Manager FMD Product Marketing
Akira Tanabe, Planning Manager
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.
Makoto Nishiraura. Manager New Business Develpment Division
Masaya Tanaka, Manager P 1 anning&Adminstracti0n Dept. JEOL Ltd-. . Kazuhiko Moriya, Marketing Manager Semiconductor Equipment Div. Japan Hacnics Corp.
Chiaki Komiya, General Manager Component Sales Dept.
Kiyoshi Nakajiraa, General Manager Component Marketing Sals Dept.
KLA Technology Center Ltd. Andy Ohwada, Chif Operating Officer Kanematsu-Gosho Ltd.
Takahiro Shuda, Deputy General Manager Electronics Division
Kanematsu Electric Components Corp.
Yoshio Ohara, President
Kawasaki Steel Corporation
Noboru Fujimoto. Assistant General Manager New Business Division Silicon Department
Shinichi Hatano, Manager LSI D c P a r t r, e n t - 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Kawasaki Steel Corporation
Yo I to, D i rector New Business Division
Akira Kataoka, Assistant Manager LSI Departsent • Akira Tanaka, Manager LSI Department
Kobe Steel, Ltd.
Toshiyuki Tanaka, Deputy General Manager New Business Development Group
Kokusai Electric Co., Ltd.
Hisao Kanaaaru, General Manager
Koiatsu Electronic Metals Co., Ltd.
Tetsuzo Kanaya, Deputy Manager Corporate Planning Office
Kubota Computer Inc.
Kent Imamura, Manager Business Developaent
Kyocera Corporation
Kaichiro Odagawa, Director
Sh i geo Tanahash i, R&D Corporate Semiconductor Parts Division
LSI Log i c K.K.
Sadakiyo China, General Mgr of Marketing & Sale
Keisuke Yawata. President CEO MITI
Yukio Honda, Director Industrial Electronics Div.
Mars Electronics
Yoshiyasu Narahara, Vice President
Marubeni Hytech Co.. Ltd.
Yasuhiko Morita, Director,Genera 1 Manager Seiiconductor Equipaent Division
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
Keiji Chiyoiura, Manager C.I.T.D. ConponentDept.
Hirofuni Goto, Senior Coordinator Corporate International Industry Sales Division
I Kazutoshi Nagano, Manager Seniconductor Research Center
Tomio Oyama, Manager R&D Center
Takashi Sakao, Councelor Information Systems Research lab
Morio Takagi, Manager Mktg Sect, Semiconductor Promotion Dept. C.I.I.S.D
Keiji Tsuchida, Sales Manager Corporate International Sales Division
Matsushita Electronics Corporation
Toshimasa Asaka, Manager Semiconductor Corporate Pinning Dept.
Ichiro Asao, Manager Central Application Lab.
Junichi Horii, Coordinator Semiconductor Corporate Pinning Dept.
Mei.ji Mutual Line Insurance Company
Jun Takamori, Supervisor Securities Investment Department
Minolta Camera Co., Ltd.
H i royuk i Masuda, Atsugi Development Center Printer Development Div.
MitsubishiBank
Takao Uj i i e ,
Mitsubishi Corporation
Ak i ra Hatano, Semiconductor Dept.
Eigo Tsuchiya. Manager Seiiconductor Dept.
Takashi Usuki, Assistant Manager Asset Management Team Capital & Money Market Dept,
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Mitsubishi Electornics Aierica, Inc.
Dwain Aidala, Vice President Marketing
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation * Taizou Kadona, Manager Overseas Marketing Department-c
Koichi Kamahara, Manager, Marketing Research Semiconductor Marketing Planning Dept,
Iwao Namba, General Manager Semiconductor Marketing Division
K i•io Sato, Adviser
Kiyoshi Shirahata, Chief Engineer Electric Devices Group
Masahiro Yamane, Deputy Manager Mktg 8. Product Planning Dept.
Mitsubishi Kasei Corporation
Tateshi Yamada, Director Electronics Materials & Porducts Division
Mitsubishi Trust Bank
, Chief Manager Investment Advisory Division
Mitsui Bank
Masamichi Kobayashi, Fund Manager
Mitsui Trust Bank
Koichi Ogura , Investment Advisory Dept. I nvestment Advisory Group
Yukihiro Taniguchi, Manager Investment Advisory Department
Mitsuigin Investment Management Co.. Ltd.
Shigemi Nonaka, Director
Miyazaki Oki Electric Co., Ltd.
Nagaharu Inoue, Director,P1 ant Manager
- 11
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Morugan Trust Bank Ltd,
Hideki Shigenobu, Assistant Manager Investment Research Dept.
Motorola Seniconductor HK Ltd.
David Lloyd, Manager Strategic Marketing
NEC Corporation
Yasuo Akatsuka. Engineering Manager Semiconductor Application Engineering Div.
Boutaro Hirosaki, Manager, R&D Group R&D Planning & Technical Service Divison
Teruiasa laai, General Manager 1st International Electron Devices Division
Osasu Kimura, Manager LSI Menory Division Sysyen Dept.
Toaihiro Matsuaura, Executive Vice President & Dir
Shinji Ohba, General Manager Semiconductor Second Sales Div.
Tetsuo Onikura, Manager, Planning Dept. Seaiconductor Marketing Division
Hajime Sasaki, Vice President And Director
Kyozo Shimizu, Chief Engineer Semiconductor Group
Kazuhiro Todokoro, Manager Strategic Marketing Dept.
Akitake Tsuda, Manager Strategic Marketing Dept.
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation)
Yoshiaki Inamoto, Deputy Director Engineering Planning Bureau
Tsuruo Mochizuki, Reporter EconoB i c Div.
Yoshio Nakaaura, Executive Director General. Eng
NKK Corporation
Shoji Nagaoka. Manager Electronic Devices M&S Sales Dept
- 12 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 NTT Electronics Technology Corporation
Akihiro Mirosha, Manager Electronics Group
National Seaiconductor Japan Ltd.
Ronald Livingston, Director Marketing
Takuya Ogawa, Marketing Director Maketing Division
Villain G.Watson, President Pres i dent Office
New Japan Radio Co., Ltd.
Shigeru Yamashita, Senior Counselar
Nihon Keizai Shiabun Inc.
Koichi Nishioka, Senior Writer Editorial Bureau
Nihon Kogyo Shiabun
Makoto Hara, Staff Writer Edit Division
Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun
Hiroshi Mizuno, Reporter Editorial Bureau 1st Division
Nikkei Business Publications, Inc.
Hirohisa Hayashi, Editor-in-Chief Nikkei Mi erodev ices
Yoshio Nishiaiura, Editor-in-Chief Nikkei Electronics
Shozo Shigeoka, Deputy Editor Nikkei Watcher on IBM
Nikon Corporation
Shigeaasa Hisatsugu, Managerial Staff Industrial Supplies & Equipaent Div. 1st Plnng Dep
Yoshinori Yanao, Manager 1st Plnng, Plnng Dept.Indstrl Sppls & Eqpmnt Div.
Nippon Apollo Coaputer K.K.
Satoru Ono, Division Manager Systea Support
- 13 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Nippon Denso Co., Ltd.
Masayuki Aoki, General Manager IC Product Div.
Yoshichi Kawashima, General Manager I. C D e p a r t ID e n t
Nippon Motorola Ltd.
Tsunenasa Sugiyaaa. Director of Marketing Semiconductor Div. Sales OP'S
Tadahiro Tanaka, Manager Strategy/Planning Planning and Coordination Office
Nippon Precision Circuits Ltd.
Kenji Muraguchi, Manager IC Design
Nippon Steel Corporation
Shin Akutagawa, Senior Manager Electronics & Infornation Systens Div.
• Haruki Hanawa, Senior Manager Electronics & Information Systeis Div.
Kazuo Takanashi, General Manager Electronics & Infrooation Systems Div.
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corporation
Moriji Kuwabara, Executive Vice President Engineering Strategy, Planning Headquarters
Takatoshi Nakasina, Senior Research Engineer NTT LSI Lab. LSI Deveropient Laboratory
Kuniki Ohwada, Senior Manager R8.D Headquar i t i es
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.
Keiji Hideshiaa, Manager Electronics Engineering Dept.
Nissei BOT Capital Management Corporation
Masahiro Iwaki, Chief Portfolio Manager Capital Management Department
Nissei Sangyo Co., Ltd.
Hiroshi Goto, Manager of Planning Group 1st Electronics Div.
- 14 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Nissei Sangyo Co., Ltd
Tsuyoshi Matsukuna, General Hanager Technical Marketing Dept.
Akihiko Nozaki, General Manager Seticonductor & Integrated Circuits Div
Nissin Electric Co., Ltd
Sadao Tsuji. Deputy General Manager Ion Equipment Division
Oki Electric Industry Co., Ltd
Tadao Higashi, Corporate Director Electronic Devices Group
Yoshiyuki Honjo, Deputy General Manager Electronic Devices Group
Koichi Nakagawa. General Manager Sales Eng.Dept. Mktg&Sales Div. Ele. Device Group
Hiroyuki Oikawa, Assistant Manager Mktg Pro.Dept. Mktg&Sales Div. Ele. Devices Group
Yoichi Tanaka, Divisional General Manager • Mktg & Sales Div. Electronics Devices Group
Toshiki Asakawa, General Manager Electronic Devices Group
Omron Tateishi Electronic Co.
Kuninori Hamaguchi, Adainistration Dept. Manager Seniconductor Division
Osaka Sanso Kogyo, Ltd.
Ian G. Walker, Planning Manager
Osaka Titanium Co., Ltd.
Toshio Noda, Executive V.P.
Shigeo Yamaaoto, Associate Senior Vice President
Philips International B.V.
Cees V. H. Koot, Managing Dir & CEO IC Business Unit
Phi 1ips K.K.
Uzi de Haan, General Hanager Industrial Affairs & Corporate Planning
- 15 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Part< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Prudentia 1-Bache Securities (Japan) Ltd.
Darrel E. Vhitten, Vice President & Assoc.Director Far East Research
Peter Wolff, Vice President & Assoc.Director Far East Research
Reuters Japan Ltd.
Steven Brull, Correspondent Editorial
Ricoh Coipany, Ltd.
Shinobu Fukunaga, Assistant Manager Electronic Devices Division
Kiyoshi Sone, Assistant General Manager Electronic Devices Division
Ryosan Co., Ltd.
Yoshiharu Okada, General Manager Seaiconductor Marketing Dept.
Tatsuo Ui, Executive Vice President
Sanyo Electric Co., Ltd.
Moriya Fukuse, Manager Semiconductor Div., Sales Dept.
Masaak i Yanaiuro, Seiiconductor Business Head Quarters
Seiko Epson Corporation
Saburo Kusana, General Manager IC Des ign Dept.
Shigeru Nagahisa, Marketing Dept 2 International Marketing, Systeas
Tosh io Or i i, Manager IC Des ign R & D Sect ion
Kiiio Takenori, Manager IC Marketing & Planning Section
Seiko Instruments Inc.
Yasunori Ebihara, Semiconductor Division Manager Sem i conductor Div.
Semiconductor Industry Association
Andrew A. Procassini, President
- 16 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Sharp Corporation
Hiroshi Inoue, Group General Manager Intergrated Circuits Group
Hajiae Nakajina. Assistant Suvervisor Intergrated Circuits Group
Toshio Shimanoto, Manager Hanageaent Planning Board
Shin-Etsu Handotai Co., Ltd.
Shinichi Takei. Manager Corporate Planning Dept.
Shigeaki Yaiagata, Manager Corporate Technology
Shinko Electric Industries Co., Ltd.
Taizo Abe, Director,R&D .
Sienens Corporation
H. Cells, Purchasing Manager
Siemens K.K.
Masatoshi Sato, Manager Marketing & Industry Analysis Section
Singapore Economic Board
Voon-Kheong Liow, Head Econoaic Components Group
Singapore Economic Development Board
Talk Him Chua, Regional Director Eastern Japan
Singapore Technology Corporation
Joo-Hock Chua, Manager
Kheng-Nam Lee, Director Technology Investment
Software Design Ltd.
Hiroshi Tatejima, Vice President Strateg i c Planning
- 17 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Sony Corporation
Teruaki Aoki. Senior General Manager R&D Corporate Planning Group
Hatsuni Hanada, Manager Seniconductor Group Strategic Planning Department
• Yoshihiko Kato, Manager Corporation Strategy Group
Haruo Kozono, Division Vice President Supersicro Systems Group Workstation Division
Seiichi Watanabe, General Manager Semiconductor Gr. Research and Developient Divison
Sony Tektronix Corporation
Satoru Kubota, Manager Logic Systems Group
Storage Technology of Japan, Ltd.
Miyuki Miyazaki, Buyer Purchasing
StorageTek.
Gary Bata, Senior Buyer
StorageTek Puerto Rico
Victor M. Perez, Vice President
Sumisei Investment Management Co., Ltd.
Motegi Kazuyuki, Fund Manager
Sumitomo Bank, Ltd.
Keiichi Tominaga,
Sumitomo Eaton Nova Corporation
Dean Wagner. Director
Taira Yaiasaki, President
Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Eijiro Toyoda, General Manager Synchrotron Radiation Technology Dept.
- 18 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Suiitoio Life Insurance Coipany
Yoshisuke Kiguchi, Tokyo Securities Investaient Departaent
Shin Yoshioka, Assistant Manager Tokyo Securities Investment Departaent
Susitoio Hetal Industries, Ltd.
Kenji Maio, Depury General Manager Seticonductor Equipment Dept.
TOMEN Electronics Corp.
Yasuyuki Fukuda, Director Planning Office
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Corp.
C. C. Tsai, Manager Market i ng
Taiyo Kobe Bank, Ltd.
Tomoak i I na i,
Taiyo Ko-be Investment Management Co., Ltd.
Toshiyuki Omae, Manager General Administration Department
Te i san K.K.
Akihiko Morisha, Manager.E 1 ectronics Group A 1 hagaz Division
Tektronix, Inc.
Joel Kasper, Commodity Manager
Peggy L. Lewis, Procurement Manager
Teradyne Korea
Richard Dyck, Representative Director
Texas Instruments Japan Limited
Yosh iak i Hayash i, Strategic Planning Product Marketing
Hiroshi Tsuchiya, Supervisor Marketing&Sales Strategic Planning
Hideo Yoshizaki, Chairman
- 19 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Tokio Marine MC Asset Management Co.. Ltd.
Toru Ohara. Senior Portfolio Manager
Tokyo Electr ic Co. , Ltd
Fumio Takei. Director Retail Information Systems
Tokyo Electron Limited
Henry Ikeda, Manager Corporate Planning Dept.
Ken Kuriyama. Board Director* General Manager EC-2 Division
Ak i ra Ohuch i , SPE Planning & Administration Dept.
Tokyo Systems Laboratories, Inc.
Hiroshi Konno, Exective Vice President
Toshiba Corporation
Hideharu Egawa, Vice President
Kazuhiro Hirose, Senior Manager Semiconductor Marketing Dept.
Masayuki Ishibashi. Manager Engineering Admi, Dept. Semiconductor Admi.
Yoshihisa Makita, Manager Business Planning Office
Akio Miyoshi, Manager Micro Computer System Engineering Dept.
Masaaki Nomi, Deputy Manager European Middle East & Africa Dept.
Keizo Shibata, Senior Manager Semiconductor Business Research
Tetsuo Suzuki. Manager Int'l Ope. Information & Communications Systems
Takash i TsuJ i, Business Planning Office
20 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Toyo Trust Bank
Masaru Gogani, Investment Officer Pension Trust Investment Departrnpnt
Union Carbide Industrial Gases Inc.
Thomas L. Singman, Marketing Manager
Union Carbide Industrial Gases K.K.
Shinzo Ishida, Marketing Manager Marketing Development
Unisys Japan Limited
George T. Shima, Director Techno logy Liaison
Masanobu Utamaru, Manager Japan International Procurement Office
United Microelectronics Corporation
James Su, Assistant Manager Strategy Pord. Planning
Varian Associates
Michael Harris, Product Manager
Victor Company of Japan, Limited
Shigenori Iwakuma, Senior Staff Researcher R&D Planning Dept. Research & Development Div
Wacker Chemicals East Asia Ltd.
Heinz Herzer, Executive Managing Director Chemitronic Div.
Wall Street Journal
Jacob M. Schlesinger, Staff Reporter
Westinghouse Electric Japan K.K.
R.M. Daniel, Area President
Winbond Electronics Corporation
Michael M. Liao, Director Sales Department
Michael Linn, Director Sales Department
- 21 - ioan ov,w ^°f'??uest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corpiration 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 YAMAHA Corporation
Takehisa Aiano, General Manager Seiiconductor Division
Kazukiyo Ishiiura, Director,Genera 1 Manager E lectron i cs Group
Hidehiko Kita, Planning Manager Seiiconductor Division
Takashi Murayana, Manager Seaiconductor R&D Lab. Systea Lab.
Takatoshi Okuiura, Director and General Manager Seiicon R&D Lab. Applied Ele. R&D Lab.
Yaiaichi Rsch Inst, of Sects & Econ.
Masahiko Ishino. Assistant Manager
Yasuda Fire & Marine Insurance
Yasutaka Watanabe, Fund Manager
Yasuda Trust Bank
Teruhiko Inoue. Portfolio Manager Investment Managenent Departaent
Ryuzo Kojina, Pension Group Fund Manager Pension Trust Manageient Departient
Yokogawa Hewlett-Packard
Tatsuo Miyake, Supervisor Purchas i ng
Yokokawa Electric Corporation
Akira Nagashina, Section Manager Systei Development & Engineering Div.
Michio Yoshioka, Manager CoBPuter R&D
- 22 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated
David Angel, Director Seiiconductor Industry Service
Hal Feeney, Group Vice President & Director Coiponents Group
Manny Fernandez, President
Len Hills, North American Product Manager Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service
Fred Jones, Associate Director Sei iconductor Industry Service
Bridget C. O'Brian, Research Analyst Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service
Sheridan Tatsuno, Senior Industry Analyst Japanese Sei iconductor Industry Service
Dataquest Japan Ltd
Kaz Hayashi. Industry Analyst Japanese Seniconductor Industry Service
Satoko Hosh i zak i, Custoier Service
Satoko KaJ i, Custoier Service
Takashi Kimura, Marketing Manager Infornation Systeas Industry Service
SusuBU Kurana, Industry Analyst Japanese Sei iconductor Industry Service
Masahiro Miyagawa, President
Nagayoshi Nakano, Industry Analyst Inforaation Systems Croup
Max Nanseki, Director Consulting Services
Hideaki Neioto. Research Analyst Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service
Hiroshi Ohno, Senior Industry Analyst Information Systems Group
- 23 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Japan Ltd.
Osaiu Ohtake, Director Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service « Junichi Saeki, Senior Industry Analyst Information Systems Group
Tsuneo Saito. Senior Marketing Manager Technology Information Division
Yoko Shoji, Research Coordinator Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service
Sumiko Takeyasu. Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service
- 24 -
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest a company of The Dun & Bradstreet corporation 3 r* uo •< Dataquest nn a company of MMMM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
JAPANESE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Osamu Ohtake Director Japan Components Group
Mr. Ohtake is the Tokyo-based Director of Dataquest's Japanese Components Group and Director of the Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service. He is responsible for strategic research on technologies, markets, products, and manufacturers. Prior to joining Dataquests, Mr. Ohtake worked for 10 years as a reporter, and most recently as Components Group Manager, for Dempa Shimbun, a daily electronics industry newspaper published in Japan. He has also authored reports on the Japanese VLSI project and on the semiconductor materials and equipment markets. A a native Japanese, Mr. Ohtake is a graduate of Tokyo Electrical University, where he specialized in Communications.
Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 l8K5otoiJt«a
JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Osamu Ohtake Director Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service Dataquest Japan Limited
© 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Mm^JlKa AGENDA • Position of Japanese industry and market • Why Japanese industry is so strong • Stepping into the 1990s U'lio^OM.iiWQ 0»27/e9-OHT| AGENDA Position of Japanese industry and market © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 liM ai«7wteoH ESTIMATED WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION Japan's Share Percent 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Source: Dataquest IWOSOO/.IMG 03IZTt90i>»y\ 1988 WORLD MARKET RANKINGS Estimated Total Semiconductor Revenue Ranking Company $M 1 NEC $4,534 2 Toshiba $4,302 3 Hitachi $3,506 4 Motorola $3,305 5 Tl $2,741 6 Fujitsu $2,359 7 Intel $2,350 8 Mitsubishi $2,278 9 Matsushita $1,886 10 Philips/Signetics $1,764 Source: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 l4iMo».it 1988 WORLD MARKET RANKINGS Estimated Total Semiconductor Revenue Ranking Company $M 11 National Semiconductor $1,700 12 AMD $1,106 13 Sanyo $1,085 14 SGS-Thomson $1,083 15 Sharp $1,037 16 Oki $947 17 Sony $924 18 Samsung $905 19 AT&T $859 20 Siemens $784 Source: Dataquest ^. J |B45g60aO.IMG aV27/aQ:UHT| ESTIMATED U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARE Japan's Share Percent 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Source: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 avMna.ti6 ootowHiaTl ESTIMATED EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARE Japan's Share Percent 601 ta«sr Japan U.S. Europe ,ROW_ 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Source: Dataquest |A45iiwni.iMia mmmtMrf] ESTIMATED ASIAN/ROW SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARE Japan's Share Percent 1986 1987 1988 Source: Dataquest 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 IMMu.M MrfwiMTl ESTIMATED JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARE Japan's Share Percent 100 90 Japan 80 U.S. 70 Europe 60 50 .ROW. 40 30 S 20 10 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Source: Daiaquest I4306O12.IMQ Oa27/TOUHT|| 1988 JAPANESE MARKET RANKING Estimated Total Semiconductor Revenue Ranking Company $M 1 NEC $3,272 2 Hitachi $2,470 3 Toshiba $2,438 4 Fujitsu $1,811 5 Matsushita $1,625 6 Mitsubishi $1,571 7 Sony $868 8 Sanyo $871 9 Sharp $857 10 T! $591 Source: Daiaquest 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 UaolmsjUi a3n7n9:UHT| 1988 JAPANESE MARKET RANKING Estimated Tota\ Semiconductor Revenue Ranking Company $M 11 OI(i $527 12 Rohm $501 13 Motorola $290 14 Intel $285 15 Sanken $268 16 Seiko Epson $226 17 Fuji Electric $222 18 New JRC $154 19 National Semiconductor $135 20 Yamaha $135 Source: Oalaquest ksWnSJMi 0X27r89<)HT| WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH MARKET SHARES? • Japan - increased share in U.S. and Europe • U.S. ~ increased in Japan and Asia/ROW • Europe - flat in all regions • ROW -- increased share everywhere Souice: Daiaquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 UaUiiHili tjHtMUiim 1988: YEAR OF MEMORY • Worldwide memory revenue grew 91.1% • Worldwide MOS micro grew 42.8% • Total worldwide market grew 32.9% Without memory, total growth is only 21.8% Without memory and micro, total growth is only 17.6% UuuJii-iM diraimiSfT} FORECAST FOR 1989 AND BEYOND Industry will change - Move from technological to political orientation Will memory products drive market again? - 1M DRAM price trend is important factor © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited kiatoxjUs 03B7/e9JHn AGENDA Position of Japanese industry and market Why Japanese industry is so strong I45B5018.IMQ oa25>l89*>HT| WHY JAPANESE INDUSTRY IS SO STRONG? • Domination of several products • Expanding, balanced end markets • Organized infrastructure • And others .. . SouiC8; 0al3qiJ68t © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 MdioittJUS oiMi!uMl\ JAPANESE DOMINANCE BY PRODUCT Estimated World Share of Japanese Industry 1978 1983 1988 MOS Memory N/A 46% 64% Linear 36% 42% 45% Discrete 34% 43% 53% Opto 21% 51% 71% Some*: Dalaquest [4gO502O.tMG 03/g7/«K>HT[ A WELL-BALANCED END-USE MARKET Estimated Japanese Semiconductor Applications 1978 1983 1988 Data Processing 19% 36% 44% Communications 11% 12% 13% Industrial 8% 9% 8% Consumer 51% 39% 31% Transportation 11% 4% 4% Source: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ^SSSnOi NEW PRODUCTS VS. MATURING PRODUCTS Vfear New Product Maturing Products 1971 Color TV for domestic 193^ 1973 Calculator (PMOS) 1974 Watch 1975 Calculator (CMOS) Color TV for U.S. export 1976 CB Radio Calculator (PMOS) 1977 General audio/cable TV 1978 1979 TV Game 1980 VTR/Offlce Automation Watch 1981 Domestic PC Computer slump (U.S.) 1982 (Continued) |4506dz2.lhl5 03l27na:OHT\ NEW PRODUCTS VS. MATURING PRODUCTS Year New Product Maturing Products 1983 PC (U.S. and Europe) 1984 1985 Electronic workstations Audio 1986 PC (first generation) 1987 VTR 1988 Laptop PC 1989 ISDN 1990 AD/ED TV 1991 1992 1993 HCnV/HD video 1994 © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 WMeaMa iMmM»in INFRASTRUCTURE Estimated Japanese Shares of Worldwide Totals 1983 1988 Silicon Wafer 50% 75% Photo Mask 45% 55% Mask Blanks 90% 95% Photo Resist 42% 55% Lead Frames 65% 82% Mold Materials 55% 63% Ceramic Packages 89% 95% Note: Preliminary estimates (Continued) - • \4xm*m& INFRASTRUCTURE Estimated Japanese Shares of Worldwide Totals 1983 1988 Stepper 34% 55% Ion Implantar 140/0 20% Dry Etch 45% 60% CVD 31% 45% Note: Preliminary estimates Souree: DMaquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 lawriJMa 03W/«l».-o*iT| JAPANESE INDUSTRY PERSONNEL • Very low turnover rates • Strong loyalty • Well educated • Less interest in manufacturing sector • Shortage getting serious liioeooajMd ouziimiSHT] AGENDA Position of Japanese industry and market Why Japanese industry is so strong Stepping into the 1990s © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 uiid«a*jua NEW CHALLENGES AHEAD Products Custonners Global production Technology Global management |B4S950g^.MO 11/13/e6-l.YN| JAPANESE INDUSTRY IN 1990s • Americanize, Europeanize, Asianize • Expand production to many countries • Push ahead in R&D and design areas • Move toward more advanced products • Increase intellectual property through licensing and transfers © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 198 9^ (¥^7C^) 4.^2 OB B*r---:5?i^x:;^h<*jC#tt B*i)i«(*tJ^/l/-7- TV l/d^^?- ;^tt ""^B^n-j *5{iJ:^cr^i>*-ro B*¥JS(*:MIK#il(0railtc^<9^ l/»liy^O3 03^^B'I•^^ B*co j^t^iUT. ®S*cr*g/M^ i^tSoT*?*? ifo «?Uccx---:J?^x:^h Wtm\^T^tz\.^t^KXt5'oiro ^n7!)><^9 0^{tro®ii-e*')*fo >" J:::^ ^^ -f H 3 _i 0tt1ti:|?<;Di}iaf^mSlc:*7lt5®liSlJ <^tCik3!ISiJ<;3il£jg«:^±ieF«^TM*Lj:-5o gli 1 98 8^cr;^5lt5¥ag* Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 f" ^:3t. ^^ -f H 6 _i ^tii^a. ±^2 0&iV(D±m^iz:mi\-iiliiOo c:it?stB?Ra4tt:*«AoT*5*)^ i¥:m^ii-t--yB^)l • t 5 n >3?*:J7 ^-ttTbn 987 ^<;38te*><=,l 98 8^y:l U4> AT&Ttta 1 S^iA*"^ 1 9^5i:T^co-:^^ B5fiii ±T^ )«tt*i««)T*5*)*-ro -:^> 7z^'T^ B^:^DI f~ ::^ ^ ^ K s _i R:wmaT't>^ mw^tiL^^. cr$g^u*Lj;^o ctDms-ciiflfe^ogjciti^t^a ?R;!)>-i-^2(0l^*s?)<'-^r. -a-'^^-^Tio*) i-To 1 987^lcU:<€ni^-(D^@7b^'^0C:Hi f?*-^sA i: ^i 19 i L /-cTb^ 19 8 sm^^inzj^^mt^-w^iKDm^mmm i L /UO —:B. 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I SDN, HDTVA'g;^?!!^^^:*)*^ J: To -7? . >in«=.(D»fl5i a**«»58aT Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 oo ^«ttlfirffa^-ti-' <" ^::?. ^^ -f K 2 3 _j ?±*««t,^t«:^i'i7$^-5r*5*}*L/-c*^ llj£T-li. ::^7^'yA\ F^-Tx^v f'^y^j: i: (OMUncailgT. B;fi(Ovi:7'A«?BFioT*5'9*i-o t^^aft^co^Hi^nigccA^Tb'-n* (^. ^i-^^mmxt}<^^^f3^^mnmm^zrj: ^ -1 T^^ ii-, ifSliSST-ttv B*/)^ISt,^7^'l?a7•••t'yt^*^'fbLTt,^< irt^^illt/)^ * "t * -r^*^ *b J: -90 lisA^-^cDii*A?iiSJt>fl:^Sena7-t-^DfiItT^J:< ^ AS I c s . :trhT-'vWXl?^|lI(;T-ro •9->7°;i/ai<^A« ^-^^^(D^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 fcdJST^Mb^ ^*&-r5wi:c^j:'9*to ftWffi-ett. 0. 25$i7a>j^«^ •• B I CMOS •\ :/fUOA • k*. Va^VVy »'&m?^ **t^U:j@m^ti^o/::t V7h';?i7Tt)" ho> "yas/'xi? htc^^ns i^ic, 90^{-'i*«)^*L^clfr/-c^j: «"::::^'^-f KS'T'.I *i:*^-ltT. l>/•c/•iti•ri:^ H* ^m^^< ^S«^ H*7!) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Oataquest nn 3 company of ^i^ AID TheDun&BradstreetCorporation DataQuest nn a company of MMMB TheDun&BradstreetCorporatK WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR OUTLOOK Hal Feeney Vice President and Director Components Group Dataquest, Incorporated Mr. Feeney is Group Vice President and Director of Dataquest's Components Group. In this capacity, he h.as direct responsibility for all U.S. semiconductor and component research and coordinates European and Japan-based research. Previously, he was Vice President and Director of Dataquest's Technical Computer Systems Industry Service. Before joining Dataquest, Mr. Feeney was Manager of International Customer Marketing at Intel Corporation, where he was responsible for international marketing/sales support of microcomputer components and development systems. During his 14 years with Intel, Mr. Feeney held various positions in marketing management, product marketing management, and LSI design engineering. Component Design Engineer with General Instrument Corporation. Mr. Feeney received a B.S.E.E. degree from the University of Notre Dame and an M.S.E.E. degree from, Stanford University. He also completed additional graduate studies in Electrical Engineering at the University of Notre Dame. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |g<6Meo*.*a oMsiii^M.\ Stepping toward the 1990s WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR OUTLOOK Hal Feeney Vice President and Director Components Group Dataquest Incorporated © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 KtiiMtiJUa igiSiBTgl AGENDA • Overview of historical factors • Status of electronics industry • Status of semiconductor industry • Forecasts • Summary ISMiiwi^fcia oa^iri^rKEI A JAPANESE VIEW: THE FLOW OF SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY Memory Mountains © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Ifttolmgtma einmi:fa\ ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE Billions of Dollars 100 -^ T—I—I—I—r—I—I—1—1—I—I—I—I—I—I—1—I—r 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Sduico: DBlaquBst titxtoJM.iii te/iMe:Tgn ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE Billions of Dollars 100 T—I—I—I—\—I—I—[—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—r 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Souice: Dalaquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 lawatdt-iwa outiiMMi;! ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE Percent Growth 60 50 A 40 i A 30 Jk /A\ l\^ A J 20 { /\ -A 10 /A / \ IW / /> 0 1 \l^ \\ /r N\ f -10 J \ 1 .on ^ Vli Vf 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Somce: Dataquest |B466aoio. ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE Percent Growth 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1965 1970 1975 1980 (?198)5 1990 Source: Daftaquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 WMd>JM9 mitiiM^tU QUALITATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING SEMICONDUCTOR RECESSIONS 1971 System driver - mainframe computers and defense industry U.S. economic recession slowdown in defense spending 1975 System driver - calculators, watches, and CB radios Significant double ordering Excess capacity Severe price attrition in commodity logic 1980-1982 System driver - video games Economic recession |42iooM.ikiQ oarisww^ggl QUALITATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING SEMICONDUCTOR RECESSIONS 1985 System driver - personal computers Excess capacity Severe price attrition in commodity memories 1989-1990 System driver - PCs/workstations Softening U.S. economy Falling memory prices © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 uimmm sinmrm U.S. ELECTRONICS EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION REVENUE Percent Change Year to Year 50 40 - 30 20 ^^i?i?^ 10 A iitViiy **tl, , jlini^Tn^Ti ^tiijf fv.^ ' * < t t 111 n ' '"• ' H * • • . • \ yh ^y J [ 1" 11111^ El« Ctronic Equlpme fW -10 PK duction -20 -30 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Souree: Daiaqiiest atitaHoMb teliM6:tE£\ U.S. ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY'S RELATIONSHIP TO U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY Percent Change Year to Year 50 40 30 20 10 NwS- '^*^: 0 .Electronic Equipment, -t- % n Production # -10 fcs^ -20 a: -II- -30 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Souree: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 UiiiiM.m (ai^rtKKei JAPANESE ELECTRONICS EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION REVENUE Percent Change Year to Year 70 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 * 80 surveyed companies + Other S0U1C6! Dataquest IB4g10012.1MQ 0ai6fflD:FEEI JAPANESE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY'S RELATIONSHIP TO JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY Percent Change Year to Year 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 * 80 surveyed companies + Other Souice: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 tUMImMS <«ite»rti>:UI ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE BY GEOGRAPHY 1988 Revenue Rest of World Europe Japan North America 1btal » $50.5 Billion Soun»: Dalaqueet IB4ai!Wiiiiiyta STATUS OF ELECTRONICS MARKETS © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-23987 (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Mtm^jua wdM^en STATUS OF COMPUTER MARKETS • Industry consortiums flourish • DRAM shortage limits '88 growth • Workstations change computing style • RISC architectures ratified |g«iihnt.iUa tehtnii^n STATUS OF COMPUTER MARKETS U.S. Office Equipment and Computer Rates of Change Percent Souce: Department ol Commerca Dstaquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 m^wtwa dgisareei STATUS OF COMPUTER INDUSTRY U.S. Computer Inventories in Weel 11 ,^^J^^ T" *^ %, H-. 10 \ ll 9 V ¥ \ A li'' 313 /J 7 • T .^Jri. \/^"^Ti ^ 1 1 N 8 7 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Source DBlsqifSSt |fl*2ia0iy.lMQ 02/1GW0:FiEi WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS MARKETS Billions of Dollars 300 ^^ 1986 1987 1988 Japan North Europe America © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 |B«210010!lM WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS MARKETS 1988 Shipments ^ Data Processing ^ Consumer M Industrial • Communications EH Military M Transportation Total = $769 Billion Souice: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 |84g1Q0g1 .MQ 02/16W9:FEtel STATUS OF SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 hitioaiua Wwwtfgl STATUS OF SEMICONDUCTOR MARKETS • Softening order rate • Falling DRAM pricing • Diminishing product constraints • Selective personnel adjustments • Concentration of strength lB4woQe.iMQ U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO Three-Month Moving Average -to-Bill Ratio 1985 -4- 1986 4- 1987-—^- 1988- SoMcetWsrs © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 U4Mm.m flj/iAteWI EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO Three-Month Moving Average Book-to-Bill Ratio 1^ 1.2 1.1 1 F-X: F*^^:^^^- 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 1986 + 1987 4- Souicetwsrs |54658003.IMG OSiZMsS^S^ JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO Three-Month Moving Average Book-to-Bill Ratio 1.3 r^^xv^^../'^Xxs © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 H4ft9oat.m ciMMUtl SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY WORLDWIDE REVENUE Billions of Dollars 60 GnnO DiscreleK}pto 50 jnnnUArtatog fi^j"^ Bipolar 40 MPS 30 20 10 0 |g4Jio TOP 10 SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES' WORLDWIDE REVENUE NEC Toshiba Hitachi Motorola Tecas Instruments Fujitsu Intel Mitsubishi Matsushita Philips 2 3 Billions of Dollars Sounn: D^Kluest 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 immt-na <*iM*t:i«i TOP 10 SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES' WORLDWIDE REVENUE NEC Toshiba Hitachi Motorola fexas Instruments Mitsubishi Matsushita Philips 20 40 60 80 Percent Change 1987 to 1988 Souce: Dataquest ift4^d»a.Ma FORECASTS © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited r,°^'^'^"®^* Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY FORECAST Assumptions for 1989 Growth ^20% ^10% ^3% U.S. Real GNP 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% Business Fixed investment 8.2% 6.0% 3.2% U.S. Computer industry Growtli 15.0% 12.0% 6.5% |0 WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY FORECAST Quarter-to-Quarter Percentage Growth Percent 15 Actual Forecast 10 ISK™ ffl"^N 5 ^T^^-I^JJ Q1 02 Q3 Q4 Q1 02 03 Q4 Q1 Q2 03 Q4 I , I I ' 1 I 1988 1989 1990 Souice: Dataquest © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 IftwMoiiiia oartWaafai ESTIMATED SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY WORLDWIDE REVENUE MOS Memory MOS Logic MOS Microdevices Bipolar Logic S!!?^ Bipolar Memory 2222332•CDCEECD2E 1986-1987 ^^ 1987-1988 Analog fgga 1988-1989 Discrete/Opto -30 20 60 100 Percent Revenue Growth Source: Daiaquest mii-mi * ESTIMATED SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPITAL SPENDING Percent Change Year to Year Production Capital Equipment Value* Spending Spending 'Includes captive production Souice: DalaqiiesI 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 umu^jua sj^assfm SUMMARY l405a01tlMQ (MrtWroiSwl SUMMARY Expect a slower industry in 1989 - Strong first half - Then three negative growth quarters Capital spending slowing © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 UMMMA tmSfSTm SUMMARY Higher electronics growth in the Pacific Rim Future system drivers - Cellular telephones -HDVT Europe, 1992 © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest a company of The Duh& Bracbtreet Corporation Dataoyest nn a company of Mi0 The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation AN OVERVIEV OF THE SraflCONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IN THE '90S: A MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVE Tomihiro Matsumura Executive Vice President and Director NEC Corporation Mr. Matsumura is Executive Vice President and Director of NEC Corporation. Since he joined NEC he has held a variety of positions which include Senior Vice President and Director, Member of the Board of Directors,, and General Manager, IC Division. Mr. Matsumura graduated from the Faculty of Engineering at Nihon University. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CCWFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 l9<«^«oia.iUd OOTi^MBSSn Stepping toward the 1990s AN OVERVIEW OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IN THE '90s AND OUR MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVE TOMIHIRO MATSUMURA Executive Vice President and Director NEC Corporation © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 An Overview of the Semiconductor Industry in the 90's and Our Managerial Perspective Mr. Tomihiro Matsumura Executive Vice President and Director NEC Corporation April 20, 1989 I) The Role of the Semiconductor Industry * Trends in the development of the Semiconductor Industry The semiconductor Industry has undertaken its leadership as the "Base Industry of Electronics Industry", based on technological innovations which have responded to the needs of customer industries. - The semiconductor industry has overcome the "Silicon Cycle" by introducing "New Products" based on technological innovations. * The Role of Semiconductors in the Advanced Electronics Industry The role of semiconductors has changed from "The Rice or the Crude oil of Industries" to "More Important Substance" due to the advancement of technology. (From "VLSI" to"Ultra-LSI".) - As the social and economic role of semiconductors become more important, the semiconductor industry will be a focal point from the viewpoint of economic and trade conflicts. (The semiconductor industry should realize the necessity of "An Ordinary Expansion".) - The semiconductor industry will further grow as "A driving force" contributing to "The Information Era" in the 1990's. °^'^'^^®^ Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 II) Managerial Perspective and Measures * Future Rerspective As the semiconductor industry requires more engineering and financial resources, the trend in the industry will be increasingly toward a heavier investment of man-power, equipment and money. The Japanese semiconductor industry should realize its important role among the world-wide industry, because a small erroneous decision could result in a serious problem in terms of international economic conflicts. In short, the industry should realize that the "Risk" is large and that it is not easy to keep your "Profit". * Managerial Perspective in the 90's 1) Strategic Perspective 2) LSI business as the Base of the Entire Electronics Industry 3) Strength in All Phases of Engineering Resources. 4) Global Coordination of R&D, Production and Marketing. 5) Development of Proprietary Products, with Respect for Intellectual Property. III) NEC's Viewpoint & Strategy in the 90's * Expansion of New Product line based on proprietary technologies, with due respect for intellectual property. NEC's strength derived from the synergy of "Computers and Communications". * Promotion of "Globalization". * Respect for Existing Technologies * Optimum Balance in SBUs * Renewal of Overall Management '-'^'^'^^^s' Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest a company of The Dun & Bradstieet Corporation DataQuest nn a company of MMMM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation KETI's VIEV OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR TRADE ISSUE Yukio Honda Director, Industrial Electronics Division Machine and Information Industries Bureau Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) Mr. Honda is Director of the Industrial Electronics Division in the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). Since joining MITI in 1967, Mr. Honda has held a variety of positions including Technology Deputy Director of the Ocean Department Office, Agency of Natural Resources, and Information Industries Bureau; and Director of the Space Industry Office, Machine and Information Industries Bureau. Prior to being appointed to his present position, Mr. Honda was temporarily transferred to the Technological University of Nagaka as a professor for two years. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 THIS PRESENTATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT TIME OF PUBLICATION Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 # DataQuest nn a company of MMmm TheDun&Brad^reetCorporatic DataQuest nn a company of MBmB The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation TRADE ISSUES Andrew A. Procassini President Semiconductor Industry Association Dr. Procassini is President of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the trade organization that represents U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturers.- Prior to becoming SIA President, Dr. Procassini served semiconductor firms in senior management positions in the areas of quality and reliability assurance, operations, sales, and marketing, and in the international area. He has held major posts in the semiconductor divisions of Motorola and Fairchild. He also cofounded and served as President of Micro Circuit Electronics. Dr. Procassini received a bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan, a master's degree in Economics from Arizona State University, and a doctorate in Business Administration from Nova University. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 Ifl4ri<^.it« stepping toward the 1990s TRADE ISSUES ANDREW A. PROCASSINI President Semiconductor Industry Association © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Trade Issues AA. Procassini President Semiconductor Industry Association April 20,1989 Dataquest Conference, Tokyo As president of SIA, I generally speak about semiconductor issues including trade. Today, I would like to discuss a broader issue. That issue is the linkage between financial leadership, trade, electronics and semiconductors. Japan is recognized as the world's strongest economy. However, it is not recognized as the world's financial leader. Although economic power is necessary for leadership, it is not sufficient. The world's financial leader must be willing to take on additional responsibilities. These responsibili ties are shown on Slide 1 as chcU'acteristics of a world economic/financial leader. Characteristics of a World Economic and Financial Leader o Maintains its currency as a store of value. o Allows its currency to function as a global reserve currency. o Acts as international lender of "last Ksoit.' o Ensures that its domestic ana mtei r;.nt!c o Keeps the trading system open e^za at domecdc political cost. Source: R.T. Murphy, Harvard Business Review. March-April, 1989 Slide 1 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 The United States maintained this position for manyyears. Now that this leadership is questioned, will Japan qualify for financial leadership? With regard to the above responsibility criterion, foreigners view Japan as excellent in the first one, mixed feelings about the next three, and poorly in the fourth, namely, that of keeping an open trading system. Foreigners generally agree that they simply cannot look to Japan as a practical guarantor of an open trading system. Basically, they perceive Japan to have an adversarial trade mentality, and a deep-seated reluctance to deal with foreigners. These perceptions are reflected in data based on "cross-trade" or intra-industry trade between nations. For example, do the electronics industry of Japan and the United States trade freely in each other's country? Another measure of openness is the "import penetration ratio," this is the ratio of imports to consumption as a percentage; and finally, the "foreign penetration ratio" which is the ratio of imports plus domestic production by foreign firms to total domestic consumption. You probably recognize "foreign penetration ratio" as the foreign share of the domestic market. In addition to these measures of openness, there are several measures of competitiveness. Production as a percentage of world production, and exports as a percentage of production are such measures for each nation. By use of these ratios, we can judge why foreigners do not perceive Japan to be open. Let's view Slide #2. Import Penetration Rates in All Manufacturing (Imports as a % of Consumption) Importing U.S. Germany Japan Country Year 1975 1986 1975 1986 1975 1986 Column: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Imports From: World 7.0 D.8 243 37.2 4.9 4.4 OECD 4.9 93 20J 30.6 2.9 2.5 Countries Developing Zl 42 2.6 4.4 1.8 1.8 Countries Source: ACTN Report, February 1989 SUde2 ioon o .... r. I^^'^quest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 SUde #2 shows that Japan's import rados are very low for 1975 and 1986 (shown in columns 5 and 6) compared to the U.S. for the same years (coliunns 1 and 2). They are also very low when compared to West Germany, (columns 3 and 4) which is similar to Japan in the sense of having very few natural resources. In fact, Japan imports declined in this comparison. Similar tables with additional countries would show similar results. In what industries does the world's nations' cross-trade occur? It occurs in virtually all industries — viz. auto parts, agriculture, electronics, construction and in most other industries as welL Let me focus on electronics. The last complete set of international data, including import and export is for 1987. However, 1988 wiU not be much different. Matrices of absolute values of the shipments of production, exports, and imports for the world, were used to calculate the ratios used in this presentation. Total Electronics 1987 Production, Export and Import Ratios Ratios: Production as Exports as % Imports as % % of World's Production of Region Production of Region Consumption Column: (1) (2) (3) Essisssi Europe 24 13 29 U^. 38 20 21 Japan 26 36 6 SUde 3 Source: EIC, SIA Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Slide #3 shows that Japan has an import ratio of only 6%, i.e., only 6% of Japan's consumption of electronics is imported, while it exports 36%, and produces not much more than Europe, about 26% of the world's production. This pattern of focussing on exports and restraining imports unless essential, is the typical view that foreigners have of Japan as a mercantilist economy. Electronics - Selected Segments 1987 Production, Export and Import Ratios (in %) for \J.S. and Japan as Regions Ratios: Production as % of World Exports as % of Production Imports as % of Segment Consumption Region: U.S. Japan U.S. Japan US. Japan Column: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Segmeat: Computer 39 24 27 34 25 7 Consimier 13 43 16 56 62 4 Telecommunications 29 21 6 28 15 2 Semiconductors 36 46 29 21 17 6 Note: Semiconductor data is based on chip diffusion locations as regions. Source: EIC, SIA Slide 4 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 If we take a look at specific electronics segments, the pattern is very similar and can be seen in Slide #4. In overall world production, the U.S. leads in computers (39%) and telecommunication (29%), while Japan leads in consumer (43%) and semiconductors (46%). In exports however, the U.S. leads in semiconductors. In imports, the difference between U.S. (column 5) and Japan (column 6) are drastic. Japan does not import. It is true that the results may be sli^tly different if we used company nationality instead of country. The only industry, the semiconductor industry, where both the region of production as well as nationality are basis for data here will be shown later. It shows a slightly different picture. Electronics • Selected Segments 1987 Production, Foreign Sales and Foreign Penetration Ratios (in %) for U.S. and Japan Producers and Consumers Producers Consumers Producdoii as Fordgn sales as Foreign peoettadon as a % world producooa a % of productioii a% of consumption U.S. JTapiui US. Japan U.S. Japan Column (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) {6) Se^ent: Hard Disks 63 28 25 57 22- 1 (5 1/4-) Penonai 69 IS 25 55 13 17 Qmiputen Senuconducton 41 45 39 25 19 10 Source: Dataquest, SIA SUdeS loon o^^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 If we continue further to Slide #5, we can compare other electronic data processing segments and the resiilts are similar. Japan is relatively closed. In addition, it should be noted that even where Japan is clearly not as competitive on a world production basis, it continues to have foreign sales including exports in large percentages, while importing very little. Here we have used a slightly different approach in order to demonstrate that the U.S. "localizes" its production to a greater degree than Japan. In Slide #4, we showed U.S. (as a region) producing 36% of the world's output, but if we use U.S. to designate company capital affiliation as the "Producer", the U.S. produced 41% of the world's production. This is shown here in Slide #S. Consequently, the U.S.-produced foreign sales are higher due to plants abroad as shown in column 3 (39%), as compared to 29% in column 3 in Slide #4. Also notice that the foreign penetration of Japan in Column 6, Slide #5 rises to 10% from the import penetration ratio of 6% in Column 6, Slide #4. This is due to foreign production and sales in Japan. Notice that in areas other than semiconductors, namely hard disks and personal computers, where Japan is not the world's leaders in production, it still focuses on exports (column 4, Slide #5). Semiconductor Industry Competitiveness & Openness Ratios for the U.S. and Japan 1987 Compedciveness Openness Country Production as Exports as a Import Penetration Foreign Penetration %of %of Rate as a % of Rate as a % of World Trade Countrv Production Countrv Consumption Countrv Consumotion Column (1) (2) (3) (4) U.S. 36 :» - ^ 17 19 Japan 46 1% 6 10 Competitiveness Production as % of World Trade Foreign Sales as % of production Companies (Capitai-AfHliation) (1) (2) U^. 41 39 Japan 45 25 L' Source: SIA Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation Slide 6 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Finally, in semiconductors. Slide #6 shows that the U.S. semiconductor industry has a greater localization in production. This indicates that U.S. firms have invested abroad to a higher degree that Japanese firms. Producing abroad is often called "localization". Of all major countries, only Japan barred U.S. manufacturers from building plants in Japan until 1976. The U.S. is as competitive as Japan overall, and still provides no barriers, therefore, I do not accept criticism of American efforts in Japan, but I do offer criticism of Japanese attitudes of adversarial trade. The American semiconductor industry (SIA) is working hard with the Japanese semiconductor Industry (EIAJ) to improve the "openness" of the Japanese semiconductor market It is not an easy task, and extraordinary efforts are required on both sides. Both governments are involved in this area as weU as many other areas. I hope that this short paper provides you with an overview of the trade issue. How is it connected to the financial leadership of Japan? If Japan cannot meet the "openness" commitment of the Semiconductor Agreement on chips, it will probably not meet the requests that will be made by the American Electronics Association in its efforts to improve America's electronics equipment share of market in Japan. (AEA has suggested Japan as a Super 301 country to the United States Trade Representative primarily because of lack of openness in Japan.) If Japan cannot meet a trade request in a large, strong key industry, such as electronics where cross trade should be relatively easy, then it probably cannot commit to "openness" in any other industry either. If Japan cannot commit to "openness", then it cannot become a world financial leader. If it can agree to be a guarantor of openness by showing its openness it can become the world financial leader. There is a choice here. THE CHOICE IS UP TO JAPAN! Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQiiest aoHnpanyof The JDun & Bradstieel Corporatioi DataQuest •>U a company of MMMM The Dun &Brad$treet Corporation WHAT DOES 1992 MEAN TO THE EUROPEAN HARKET? Cees V.M. Koot Managing Director Philips Components Division Business Unit Integrated Circuits Philips International B.V. Mr. Koot is Managing Director of Philips International B.V. Philips Component Division and is responsible for global Business Unit Integrated Circuits and general management of all European-sourced products. Mr. Koot started his career at Philips doing a variety of software development functions. His previous positions include Product Manager of MOS products and Product Manager of Digital Bipolar ICs. Mr. Koot graduated from Technical University of Delft at the Netherlands. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |B4M400S.tMG 03/3(WB0:t*ir| Stepping toward the 1990s WHAT DOES 1992 MEAN TO THE EUROPEAN IC MARKET? CEES W.M. KOGT Managing Director Philips Components Division Business Unit Integrated Circuits Philips International B.V. © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 What Does 1992 Mean for the European IC Market? by Cees W.M. Koot Managing Director Philips Components-Integrated Circuits Dataquest Semiconductor Industry Conference April 1989 Tok.yo, Japan Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Good Morning, Much has been written and said in past several years about "Europe 1992." What it is, what It will mean for Europe and and what it will mean for the rest of the world. In looking for answers to these questions. people have made judgments and formed opinions that have not all been based on the facts. The results are misconceptions—myths—about Europe 1992. This morning I would like to accomplish two things: first, put those myths to rest by reviewing the efforts of the past several years that are aimed at building an integrated Europe by 1992; and second, review how 1992 will affect the semiconductor industry—and in particular the integrated circuit industry—in Europe. What we now call Europe 1992 has its roots in the Treaty of Rome some thirty years ago.. There, the then-six member states agreed to build a Europe without frontiers, a common market where goods, people, services and capital could flow freely. The Treaty of Rome was the culmination of what has been called the "Idealistic" period of European integration plans. During the 1950s, the concept of a United States of Europe was created. In accordance with the Treaty, all kinds of trade barriers fell in the 1960s and 1970s, often called the period of "Passive Integration." -1- .»»«, ^^^^^sss^!sr,:s^^-n.r,^^z^ «.o.. In contrast to the idealistic 1950s, the 60s and 70s also offered a stage for political wrangling rather than substantive action. Progress stagnated. Fortunately, with the 1980s came a more pragmatic view. The so-called "Industrialist" phase offered a fresh look at the issues. It was now up to the leaders of industry to take charge of the now 12-member European Community. Chief executives of major European companies took the initiative to push the concept of a single European market into practice. What exactly are the effects of creating a single, unified market by 1992? The answer to that question was given in the now famous Cecchini report, released last year. Basically, a single, unified market would provide 0 a one-off gain of 200 billion ECU from economies of scale, cost benefits and tougher competition from scrapped trade barriers; 0 an increase of 4.5 percent to 7 percent in the community's gross domestic product; 0 between 1.8 million and 5 million new jobs; and 0 a drop in consumer prices of as much as 6 percent. - 2 - Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 The loss of competitiveness In the 1970s, the lack of economies of scale and of a large home market like those of the U.S. and Japan, and the so-called "costs of non-Europe" made Europe's Industrial leaders aware of the need to promote both the European Community and European cooperation. In 1985, my company Philips announced its far-reaching plan "Europe 1990—An Agenda for Action." That plan showed how, as businessmen, we could pragmatically attack the Issue of European integration. Philips' plan presumably acted as catalyst, because within six months the EEC Introduced Its white paper on the completion of European integration. Similar In many ways to "Europe 1990." the EEC paper had one major difference. While Philips' plan set 1990 as the date, the EEC set 1992. It seems bureaucrats do not have the same sense of urgency as businessmen who face the fierce winds of competition. Nevertheless, the EEC paper provided a useful agenda and progress has been made. For example. It Is now fairly widely held that completion of a large internal market cannot be separated from economic and monetary union. An inconceivable notion not long ago. Perhaps the most significant recent development Is the Single European Act, which establishes new cooperation procedures among the European Commission, the Council and Parliament as well as changes In voting in the council—decisions on Internal measures must now be taken by qualified majority. '^^*^'^"®®' IncorporaJed, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Another milestone is the Single Administrative Document, which reduces to one the number of customs documents needed for goods crossing borders. A breakthrough has also been achieved with the "New Approach to Harmonization of Standards," good news for electronics companies, for example, which have to deal with myriad national standards. Under the "Mutual Recognition of National Tests and Standards" ruling, a product allowed by one EEC country can be sold in all EEC countries. We have also made considerable progress in cooperative programs. Efforts such as RACE, BRITE and ESPRIT, for example, are helping to build the much needed infrastructure of research centers, universities and industry. But more about these later. In spite of these great strides, more must be accomplished before we can congratulate ourselves on a job well done. In Philips' view there are still six tasks to be completed in the current phase of the 1992 program. 0 He need a Eurgpean Monetary Union to . strengthen the ECU and promote its use, to promote the complete liberalization of the movement of capital, and to set up a European Central Bank. 0 We need to focus on European quality standards. Quality is a key competitive issue and Europe should establish a platform to promote European quality. 0 We need to formulate an External Relations Policy regarding reciprocity in international trade and investment. 0 We must resolve the gap between social expectations and the realities of social costs as they affect European competitiveness. - 4 - 1290 RidrtPr pi^f n''''®^'c'"''°[''°'^^^' ^ '^o^Pany Of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 0 We need to improve Management Education so we will have the middle and senior managers to run the companies in the coming decade. c We must aim for an Integrated Industrial Scenario that will synchronize all the previous actions. Why has Philips spent so much time on the European unity issue? The answer is simple: European industry can no longer function effectively as small, inefficient industries protected by national barriers. We can no longer afford to do nothing, to remain easy targets for U.S. and Japanese competitors who will eat into our individual home markets. We must develop a single home market of continental size that will give us the mass to trade with other regions of the world on a basis of reciprocity. Europe has the foundation to be a strong trading region. Two indicators of that strength are Europe's population and its total gross domestic product. Taken together the 12 nations of the EC and the six EFTA nations represent nearly half of the population and better than two-fifths of the GDP of the three regions. We have to take advantage of that strength. And from our perspective at Philips, no where is it more vital than in the electronic industry. The electronics industry has evolved into a global business, with global technologies, products and competition. In the electronics industry today, there is a severe imbalance among the three major regions of the world. The imbalance is leaning heavily against European electronics manufacturers. Let's look at some numbers that will bear out that remark. -5- Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 First, how large are the world markets we are talking about? That is, systems, ICs, equipment and materials. I think these numbers for 1988 from Integrated Circuit Engineering clearly point out what's at stake for all of us. Looking more closely, we see that the use of electronics in the economies of Europe, the U.S. and Japan differs little. One Indicator of this Is the consumption of electronics equipment expressed as a percentage of the gross domestic product: Europe 2.6 percent, the U.S. 3.4 percent and Japan 2.9 percent. As you can see, there's not much difference. There.is, however, a large difference in the origin of the equipment used in the regions. The percentage of the total equipment sales in the region that Is imported. Europe Is unhealthily dependent on Imported electronics. We import more than our share of consumer and EDP goods. And while we are net exporters of communications and general Industrial equipment, our exports come nowhere near those of Japan, for instance. Left unchecked, those industries, too, will go the way of our shipbuilding, camera, watchmaking and motorcycle industries. We cannot let that happen. The imbalance of the IC industries of the three regions is even larger. Europe Imports a large number of ICs. The result is that Europe produces only 13 percent of the three-region total, whereas, based on consumption, it should be 34 percent. •6- 1290 RirtriPr p°fl^''^^o''^°?°'^^'^.' ^ co'^Pany of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 A further indicator of the imbalance among the three regions is shown by the split of IC production as it is and as it should be according to electronic equipment consumption. Europe stacks up poorly in all these comparisons. Such performance has resulted in part because of better performance by our U.S. and Japanese counterparts. But in other cases as a result of unfair business practices. But whatever the cause, the balance must be shifted. Left unchanged, there will be serious consequences for the viability of Europe's electronics industry—and the IC business in particular. ICs are the enabling technology for the continued advancement of industrial societies. As such, each region needs a viable IC industry to further its culture. Each region, therefore, needs to be substantially self-supporting. Being self-supporting means that all the elements of the so-called "industrial foodchain" must be available domestically. From materials, manufacturing equipment, and chip design and fabrication, to manufacturing the end product for the consumer. The consequences of the imbalance we in Europe are experiencing today will result in our not being self-supporting. Not being substantially self-supporting will mean insufficient volume which will reduce the amount of R&D because of lower spending. That affects the infrastructure at the -7- 10Dr^ D^.w r, '^p'??'JSSt Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 educational level where university programs will be curtailed or halted. In general, the result will be to erode the foundations of the Industry—education, basic research, development, manufacturing, application. The foodchain will disappear. He must stop this erosion. We must be prepared to take extraordinary measures to protect our basic values, cultures and lifestyles. If necessary, we should be prepared to accept trade sanctions, temporary duties and trade agreements as solutions to protect our industries. However, "Fortress Europe" should be built on strength. Hhich leads me to what, I hope. Is a more suitable approach to shifting the Imbalance in Europe. Fortunately, our industry has the opportunity to change because there is still sufficient growth to allow us to do so. Europeans must do three things, however. We must cooperate. He must develop new advanced products for new applications. He must invest in Industrialization. On the first point, we have already begun cooperating in Europe. Mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures are only part of the industrial restructuring currently underway. Companies are consolidating operations, reducing employment levels and otherwise cutting costs to be leaner for the more competitive era coming. European Community-sponsored cooperative programs In the information science and communications markets are well-known. The ESPRIT program, adopted In 1984, aims to build the foundations for a competitive information technology business. RACE Intends to do the same for the broadband communications -8- Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 infrastructure. And BRITE, a more general effort, aims to modernize Europe's manufacturing technologies. These efforts involve a huge network of researchers in industry, universities and technical institutes. In the IC industry, we have the Ooint European Semiconductor Silicon Initiative—or JESSI—program. JESSI is designed to secure Europe's industrial and electronics future. The program is unique in that it addresses the total industrial chain. OESSI also stresses that it is vital that the European electronics industry does not confine itself to making chips for existing systems. But that it create and design new systems that make use of advanced ICs. Indeed, those are the actions that will position Europe at the leading edge of technological development. For that is where the European IC industry must be to challenge the U.S. and Japan and to shift the balance on our own soil. Now my second point. We must carry out the OESSI recommendation that we design new systems with advanced ICs. We must focus our talents, resources and energies on coming up with new products for new applications that will determine the requirements of future ICs. Opportunities exist in a number of application areas. One application area that deserves special focus Is High-Density Television—HDTV—which could be a $40 billion worldwide market within 20 years. In HDTV we have made a start by banding together through the EUREKA project with the goal of achieving full -9- .- »* ^'^^^.TSk^sr^^S:^'^,^^^,^, „,„,, European high-definition TV broadcasts by 1997. A second important area is that of Integrated Services Digital Networks, or ISDN. As Europe begins to Install ISDNs, a host of new services will determine additional ICs. Other application areas requiring European attention are the Pan European Digital Cellular Radiion effort, or GSM; automotive applications, such as automobile communications buses; smart cards; industrial and medical imaging; and all kinds of traffic control. What European IC companies do to take hold of these and other opportunities will dictate how our IC Industry will fare in the next decade. Now my final point. We in Europe must invest in Industrialization. We must develop an industrial policy that responds offensively and defensively to developments In our Industry. We need to create a policy that promotes Interdependence—that is, reciprocity—and reduces the dangers of dependence. To accomplish these tasks we have to focus our energies on bulldng our Infrastructure. If we do not we stand to loose control of our industry. At stake is not only the competitiveness of each of the companies concerned. More important is the negative effect on overall technological competence, on university education, on high-quality, productive employment. Moreover, we will no longer retain sovereignty over the facilities of our region. -10- Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 What should we do? As a first step, we need to put our attention to the problem of the weak equipment manufacturing industry in Europe. Our efforts must center on strengthening this vital sector through direct investment in new or existing companies. By forming alliances with equipment makers, for instance. Joint ventures will enhance our competitiveness. JESSI is adressing these issues. But European IC makers must take the initiative. Similar attention must be paid to the European design community. In a strong design environment, new customers and new products can flourish. That means more business for the IC manufacturer. We must encourage high-quality education. Our universities must be kept aware of the need for strong curricula in the wide range of disciplines that are part of the electronics industry, including manufacturing and design engineering. Likewise, I cannot stress enough the importance of the role of the European governments. As legislators of market conditions, of cooperation and competition, of standards, of social and working conditions, and as stimulators of a healthy business culture. I began this morning by reviewing the history of the the activities leading to 1992. I'd like to close by saying that I think there is an air of optimism in Europe today and a new sense of purpose. But there is still much to be done as I've shown. Our focal point must continue to be that "1992" is not an end in itself but a means to make Europe more competitive in the global market. 1992 is a process, not a date. -11- -,on« c^^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive. San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Our goal must be to create a Fortress Europe that competes on the basis of internal strength. That will be the kind of fortress that will endure. Not one built solely on trade sanctions or reprisals. 1992 offers us in Europe an opportunity. The opportunity to get the largest electronics market in the world back into the lead of the electronics race. Thank you, -12- Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest nn a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation Dataquest •••• a company of MMMM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation WHAT DOES 1997 MEAH TO ASIA? K.Y. Yeung Former Director of Industry and Secretary for Education and Manpower (Designate) Hong Kong Government Until mid April 1989, Mr. Yeung was head of the Hong Kong Government's Industry Department, which has responsibility for promoting industrial development and. inward investment. Previously, he headed Hong Kong's Export Credit Insurance Corporation and has held a series of other civil service appointments mainly associated with trade, economic, fiscal and budgetary policy formulation. Mr. Yeung will be appointed Secretary for Education and Manpower in July 1989. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 ia4B54006-WCj 03/3(Va0.rtw[ Stepping toward the 1990s HONG KONG TOWARD 1997 K.Y. YEUNG Director of Industry Industry Department, Hong Kong Government 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 'Hong Kong towards 1997" being • a talk given by Mr. K.Y. Yeung, recenrly Director of Industry and currently Secretary for Education and Manpower (Designate: Hong Kong Government to the Japanese Semiconductor Industry Conference 1989 held in Tokyo on Thursday, 20 April 1989 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 (1) Introduction I would first like to say how grateful I am to Gene Norrett of Dataquest for inviting me to address this distinguished gathering. It is both an honour and a privilege, particularly as Hong Kong does not enjoy an established reputation in the field of semiconductors. Nevertheless Hong Kong is an exciting market as well as a focus of international activity, and we are concerned with stepping forward into the 1990s. Accordingly, I propose 'first of all to describe how Hong Kong is changing and progressing towards 1997, the year in which sovereignty over Hong Kong will revert to the People's Republc of China. I shall be describing how Hong Kong is progressing towards greater stability and. prosperity, and rhis leads naturally to questions about the nature of changes in the economy and how the manufacturing sector in general and the electronics industry in particular are likely to perform. I shall be addressing these issues' before I conclude with the implications for Hcng Kong's likely development in the field of semiconductors. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 2 - (2) The Sino-British Joint Declaration 2. In December 1984- the Governments of the United Kingdom and the People's Republic of China entered into an agreement by which sovereignty over Hong Kong will revert to China in mid 1997. What a good deal of people do not seem to realise is that both countries have also jointly committed themselves towards the achievement of a common goal, namely, the continued stability and prosperity of Kong Kong. 3. The Sino-British Joint Declaration specifically provides that, after 1997, Hong Kong will continue to enjoy a high degree of autonomy - but as a Special Administrative Region of China. Consistent with the concept of "one country, two systems", Hong Kong will retain its capitalist economic auid trade systems and lifestyle for 50 years after 1997. We will elect our own legislature. We will retain our legal system with the common law and an independent judiciary. We will exercise autonomy in economic, financial and monetary matters. We will be able to negotiate agreements and take part in international organisations. Hong Kong will, on its own, maintain and develop economic and trade relations with all states eund regions. There will continue to be no exchange control and the Hong Kong dollar will remain a freely Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 3 convertible currency. Hong Kong people will continue to enjoy their present rights and freedom under the law, and investors will be able to realise their investments freely. ^. Next month will witness the fourth anniversary of the ratification of the Sino-British Joint Declaration. Can we have faith in it? If we believe that action speaks louder than words we must look at what has happened over the past four years in respect of measures taken to implement the Joint Declaration. Agreement has now been reached on Hong Kong's participation in many international organisations in its own right. These which protect our interests in world trade include the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade'" , the Customs Cooperation Council , ESCAP and the Asian Development Bank, UNCTAD, the International Mariti.Tie Organisation, the International Tele- cciTuiiur.i cat ions Union, and so on. A.greement has also been reached on Hong Kong establishing its own shipping register and we have negotiated several air services acreements in our own richt. '•' Hcng Kong became the 91st Contracting Party on 23 April 1986. r 9 "i •"• Hcng Kong became the 99th Member m 1987. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ~ i. ~ 5. The Sino-British Joint Declaration also provides that China's policies towards Hong Kong will be set out in a Basic Law, to be enacted by the National People's Congress as a mini-constitution for Hong Kong when sovereignty reverts to China in 1997. The drafting of the Basic Law is, of course, a matter for the Chinese Government. But it is most encouraging and, indeed, surprising for some observers that this process has been conducted in a remarkably public and open meuiner. The Chinese Government has devised arrangements that involve the people of Hong Kong in both the drafting and the consultative process. The first draft was published in April 1988 and a five month consultation period followed. This generated widespread discussion and comment and it resulted in the publication, in February 1989, of a second draft which, like the first, has also been exposed for public discussion and comment. Of significance equal to the sincerity and openness of the consultation process itself is the progress that has been made in constructing Hong Kong's future constitution. The first draft of the Basic Law contained a number of articles binding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to policies and practices already being applied in Hong Kong. Although well-intentioned, many of these articles were felt to be inappropriate for a constitutional document charting the course of development of the HKSAR for fifty years after Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 5 - 1997. As a result of comments made, genuine efforts have been made in overcoming these problems in the second draft. It is much more workmanlike and, by and large, reflects faithfully the spirit amd letter of the Joint Declaration. 6. You can see, therefore, that there is strong evidence that all sides are committed to the faithful implementation of the Joint Declaration. The question is, has this progress inspired confidence in Hong Kong? Notwithstanding uncertainties over the future, both the economy and the standard of living have continued to develop impressively since 198-^. At 8.4.% the average annual growth rate of GDP over the five years 1983 to 1988 has been very impressive by any standards. At 7.1% the average annual growth rate of GDP per head in the same period compares well with the average annual growth rate of 5.2% for the ten years 1978 to 1988. If private sector investment in plant and machinery in manufacturing is considered, the picture is even more positive. Retained imports of industrial machinery for use in the manufacturing sector has increased sharply in ( 3) real terms . In the five vears 1984. to 1988 the (3) Retained imports of industrial machinery for use in the manufacturing sector (in real terms) : Year Growth rate (% p.a.) 1984 20 ^ 1985 3 1986 19 1987 20 1988 16 1984-88 averaae 15.4 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 3 - average annual grcwcn rars, at 15.^%, was the besz on r<5ccrc. 3y zhe end of 1988 the vol'>jne of such Lmpcczz was r'-xmir.g a^c ^icre than double i~s 1983 level. We do nc- have ~o lock very far beyond published official 3xazis~ics ro find conspicuous signs of confidence in the furure. For those of you who visir Hong Kong regularly, -he development of our physical infras-rucTure offers visible proof of long term, privare sec-or investmenr in the future. The second -unnel through Xowloon Peak, a second cross harbour tunnel (which will open this year), the sixzh container terminal and the many multi-billion dollar building projects that have gone up in Central District and vvanchai in the 19805 are a convincing demonstration of the private secTcr's confidence - and of its ccmmltiaent to buildinc a better future. {3; A chancinc manuxacturino scene Against the background of a booming economy and clear signs of increasing confidence in the future, 1st us now consider hew manufacturing has fared in recent years and what changes our industries are facing. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 7 8. The relative importance of manufacturing in the whole economy has declined over time. In 1970 the output of our manufacturing industries accounted for 31% of GDP and about ^7% of total employment. By 1987 the shares of manufacturing in GDP and total employment have (4.) declined to 22% and 32% respectively . This declining trend, however, should be regarded as a sign of an economy approaching maturity, which in many countries has been characterised by the growth of service industries at the expense of primary production and manufacturing. It is clearly not a failure on the part of manufacturing to remain competitive. Indeed, in many areas but notably in productivity. Hong Kong's manufacturing industries have shown signs of vigorous growth ("^) , particularly in the 1980s. (^) Share of manufacturing output in GDP Year Share (%) 1970 31.1 1975 26.8 1980 23.8 1986 21.9 1987 22.1 (5) Growth rates in real terms of various manufacturing indicators : Domestic Employment Exports Period exports in manufacturing per employee 1966-78 9.9 7.^ 2.3 1978-87 10.8 0.7 10.0 1983-87 12.6 0.4. 12.2(*) (*) Comparable with an average annual growth rate of 11.3% for output per employee. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 s 9. China' s introduction of the Four Modernisations, coupled with the opening up of parts of China to foreign investment and rapid industrialisation in recent years, has led to significant changes in the Hong Kong manufacturing scene. The first of these is represented by a very noticeable shift of relatively low value-added, labour-intensive processes and production out of Hong Kong into China generally and Guangdong Province in particular. In addition to several tens of thousands of compensation trade projects, there are now several thousand joint venture factories in Guangdong alone. These account for some A0% of realised foreign investment in China and for upwards of a million jobs. Largely because Guangdong has proved itself unable to provide adequate infrastructural support for these factories, their production has to be supported from Hong Kong. Many of these same factories are of course partly owned by Hong Kong interests and the support takes the form of up-front services such as marketing, design ,and the sourcing of a wide variety of parts and components, and of rear-end services such as warehousing, quality control, trade financing and shipping. Amongst other things this dependence on Hong According to China Economic News (Weekly) No.'iS (Vol.IX), dated 7 November 1988, the value of realised foreign investment in China in the period January 1979 to September 1988 came to US$43..46 billion. Guangdong's share was US$21.70 billion, of which USS17.36 billion (or 80%) was supplied by Hong Kong. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 9 - Kong has led to Hong Kong becoming a centre for both the production and supply of parts, components and mechanisms. This expansion of Hong Kong's linkage industries is becoming very noticeable in our industrial { 7 ) estates , and it is further stimulated by the fact that many Hong Kong-based factories are rapidly mechanising or automating their design, production and {7) Examples of relatively new investment in the linkage industries from factories in the industrial estates : Industry Production Electronics Integrated circuits (ASICs) Silicon wafer chips Liquid crystal display devices Mass laminates Metals Specialised building materials Press plates Plastic injection moulding machines Steel reinforced concrete piles Auto exhaust systems Photoconductive dr'-ims Moulds and dies Welded steel pipes Micro-motors Aluminium sheets and strips in coils Pumps Steel slipform jacking units Metal safes and vault doors Chemicals Polystyrene .ABS compounding High purity salts Printing ink and coatings Special glasses Industrial and medical gases Pharmaceutical intermediates Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 manacemenr systerr.s ( «) uncer the pressure ci a tight labour Tiarket. Indeed, earlier this month I was here m Japan as part cf a Hong Kong Productivity Council mission locking at mechanised delivery systems in garmem: T:aking. The manufacturing sector is thus •undergoing a process of transformation. It seems to me that Hong Kong's role as a centre for labour-intensive, low value-added OEM production is gradually being transformed into another role as a centre of production of parts and components, on the one hand, and of higher quality finished products, on the other. i:a: In recent years the Industry Department has detected heavy capital investment in Hong Kong's m.ajor manufacturing industries. Indications of such inves-ment can be found in Industry Eouinme-it Indicaticns • Soiminc Open-end rotor 17,000 irrported in sDindles 1986 and 1987 Weaving Shuttle-less loans Now represents ^yD% of industry's capacity Knitting Circular and flat Ex±ansively used in bed knitting the industry machines, including ccmputerised machines Garment Lmoroved work flows Increasing interest making in modular work units - serviced by overhead deliver/ systems Electronics SMT systems Heavy and ccntinuous investment noticeable Metalworidng CMC machones Heavy and continuous investment noticeable -.onrv o^-, „°3*aq^est Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 (4.) The electronics industry 10. In what way does my description of change apply to Hong Kong's electronics industry? Our electronics industry is our second largest export earner after -extiles and garments. At USS7.1 billion its exports accounted for about 25% of the value of Hong Kong's domestic exports in 1988, The industry's output has always been and is likely to remain export led. Moreover, the industry is likely to remain dominated by foreign investors. The 130 factories which have foreign interests in them make up .43% of total e.mployment in the industry and they account for a little over 50% of the industry's output. But it is the changes over time in the industry that we are considering. In the decade 1978 to 1988 there has been a shift out of finished products into parts and components. In 1978 domestic exports of finished products, represented mainly by watches, radios, telephones, computers and games, accounted for about 72% of the value of domestic exports cf all electronic products. By 1988 this share had declined to under 65%, mainly as a result of the growth in production of compu-cer parts and components, Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 (Q) semiconductors and prinred circuit boards . In 1978 there were 911 factories employing some 78,^00 workers. By 1988 the number of fac-cories had grown to 1,939 and they employed 109,700 workers. Thus the average number of workers per factory has declined from 86 persons zo 57. This is due partly to the shift of labour intensive asse.mbly work out of Hong Kong. But it is also due to growing investment in mechanisation, and this is reflected in the increasing application of automatic component insertion and flow soldering machines and surface mounting technology. As a result, the proportion of university trained technologists and polytechnic trained technicians employed by the industry has increased significantly over the years, from about 9% of the workforce in 1978 to nearly 21% in 1988^^ . Thus, without much specific support or subsidies from the Government, the electronics industry in Hong Kong has achieved over the past ten years an impressive T9T Domestic exports of electronic products : (HK$ million at current prices) Sector 1978 1968 Finished A,928.7 (71.8%) 36,029.6 (6^.8%) products Parts and 1,931.6 (28.2%) 19.530.9 (35.2%) components (10) Source : Vocational Training Council, biennial manpower surveys. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 13 degree of upgrading consistent with its growth, as well as a degree of diversification out of finished products and into parts and components. (5) Public sector suoocrt for the industry • • - - - — - ^ 11. Whether the industry will continue to move in this direction and how fast it will develop depends in large measure on the willingness of the industry to invest in its future. It will also depend to some exten- on the level and effectiveness of public sector support. In the early 1980s, the Government took a conscious decision to examine the problems facing our major industries, and it has since undertaken a series of rechnc-economic studies with the help of international consultants. For example, Dataquest was appointed by the GoverrjTient last year to study the growth prospects of Hong Kong's electronics industry, and we expect to receive their report at the end of July. On the basis of these studies the Government has in recent years introduced a series of industrial support; Tieasures designed partly to remove obstacles to growth and partly to facilitate the future development of cur i.ndustries. Let me give you a few examples in respecr .of the electronics industry. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Te;e> •T: m a SiT.all place like Hcng Kcng. In recognition of the needs of zhe electronics industry, and in particular the special environmental and resource recruirements of its components sector, we have set aside a high technology zone witxhin our industrial estates to facilitate the establishment of plants that have special requirements. Secondly, the availability of adequately and suitably trained manpower is essential to the technological advancement of this industry. In response to its forecast requirements the Government has provided sufficient fronds for our universities and polytechnics to increase their output of electronic engineering graduates by 70% in the 1988 to 1991 triennium. The curriculum of these degree courses has been modified to enable the basic course in electronic engineering to be readily combined with a variety of electives orientated towards information technology. In addition we have recently completed an experimental training sche.me that provides for overseas, hands-on training of engineers in the skills and disciplines of ASIC, design, and we shall soon be extending this scheme to embrace other appropriate technologies. 13. In terms of support for the future development of the industry, over the past three years the Government has provided the Hong Kong Productivity lonn D Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 15 - Council with a series of development grants for the creation of new laboratory and industrial consultancy services. This year the Council will be introducing new services for manufacturers in its SMT Laboratory and its RF and Digital Communications Laboratory. These developmental support services are underpinned by the Government's own Standards and Calibration Laboratory which not only holds high echelon measurements traceable to the NPL in the United Kingdom, but also provides a comprehensive range of metrology services, particularly for the electronics industry. 1-i-. Finally, given the growing international interest in the protection of intellectual property - and it is a crucial area in electronics - the Government has decided to establish an Intellectual Property Department which will come into operation by April 1990. This Department will initially be responsible for trade marks and patents and will seek to adapt the legislation of the United Kingdom to suit Kong Kong's circumstances. Cur aim is to provide in Hong Kong the same degree of protection for intellectual property as is available in the United Kingdom. This measure is quite consistent with the provision of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which says "The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall en its own decide policies '^^'^'^'^^^ Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 .6 - in the fields of science and technology " , and with rhe latest draft of the China's Basic Law for Hong Kong, Article 138 of which provides that "The Goverrjnent of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall, on its own, formulate policies on science and technology and protect by law achievements in scientific and technological research, patents, discoveries and inventions.". (6) Semiconductors : future prospects 15. I do not, of course, wish to pre-empt the findings and recommendations of Dataquest on the future development of Hong Kong's electronics industry. But it seems to me that the restoration of confidence since 198-^, coupled with substantial private sector investment in plant and equipment and increased public sector support, must improve the opportvmities for our electronics industry to attain higher levels of technological achievement. Article X of Annex 1 to the Joint Declaration of rm the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong, 19 December 1984.. r.^^'^*^^®^ Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 17 15. These opportunities are particularly relevant for the components sector of the industry. It was against the background of an improved investment cind technological environment that Motorola decided, in 1987, to build in Hong Kong an advanced, highly automated plant for the design and manufacture of a wide range of semiconductors. Called "Silicon Harbour" - so called partly because it is located in the high technology zone of the Tai Po Industrial • Estate and partly because the estate faces Tolo Harbour - the project will be a three-storey building constructed on 7.2 acres of land, and will have a usable floor area of 320,000 square feet. The project will probably cost about USSIOO million and on completion in early 1990 will house Motorola's Asia Pacific headquarters, its regional computer centre and its regional semiconductor design and manufacture operations. It will specialise in bipolar and MOS application-specific products, both standardised and customised. The plant is expect to apply the latest computer integrated manufacturing technologies. 17. Hong Kong has a reputation as a centre for international trade and finance but by no stretch of the imagination can it be described as a centre of technological achievement comparable with Japan or even with some of the other Asian economies. So, why did Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 18 - Motorola choose Hong Kong? According to Dataquest ( 12 ,) Motorola chose Hong Kong for four main reasons. First is the availability of advanced infrastructural support, particularly in areas such as telecommunications and data processing. Secondly, Motorola are confident about the prospects for continuing stability and prosperity. Thirdly, they clearly like the quality of our trained manpower as well as our commitment to higher education and training, the latest example of which is Hong Kong's third university - the University of Science and Technology. Finally, Dataquest's forecast of semiconductor consTjmption outside the OECD group of countries assijmes compound annual growth rates for the period 1987 to 1992 of between 16% to 20% for the Asian NIEs, but nearly 48% for the People's Republic of China. These assumed growth rates place Hong Kong's consvimption at about USS1.2 billion in 1992, which places us in third place after South Korea and Taiwan. But bearing in mind that a large proportion of the PRC' s consijmption of semiconductors is consumed by manufacturing businesses that are partly owned by Hong Kong interests, the market represented by Hong Kong's total purchases is ^^^ . Research Newsletter 1988-16, Dataquest, November 1988. ion n Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 19 - likely to be of the order of US$2.3 billion^^"^ . On these assumptions Hong Kong's purchases alone are likely by 1992 to run close to the forecast level of consumption by South Korea. If one also takes into account the advantage of being able to supply China from Hong Kong, one would be considering a combined market of close to USS3.6 billion in 1992. Can we be surprised at Motorola's choice of Hong Kong as a base for expansion, instead of the ASEAN region, where many of you have gone? (7) Conclusion 18. To sum up : it seems clear that the Sino- British Joint Declaration of 198.4 has prescribed the essential ingredients of stability and prosperity for Hong Kong. All the evidence since 198^ points to a strong commitment by both China and Britain to making it work. Were this not so, Hong Kong's economy would not have performed as spectacularly as it did in the second TT3T Forecast of semiconductor consumption (USS million) Country 1987 1992 CAGR 1987-1992 S. Korea 1,100 2,756 20.1 Taiwan 1 ,051 2,505 19.0 Hong Kong 593 1,253 16.1 Singapore 510 1,202 18.7 PRC 338 2,380 /i7.8 Source: Dataquest, October, 1988 ^^'^'^"®^* Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 - 20 - half of "he 1980s. Against this background, therefore, my prediction is that Hong Kong's manufacturing industries will continue to diversify out of labour intensive and low value-added production and into mechanised, higher quality production. The linkage industries should develop as Kong Kong becomes a supply base for production in China and as a more sophisticated production centre in its own right. These trends have already manifested themselves in our electronics industry, and are likely to be accelerated by a higher level of technological support from the Government. In turn all this has improved the environment for investment involving a high technological content, eind a good example of this type of investment is Motorola's "Silicon Harbour" project. 19. Hong Kong, therefore, is no longer a manufacturing centre that you can afford to ignore. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest nn a company of MMMM TheDun&BradstFcetCorporatio Dataquest nn a company of MMMB The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation CAPITAL SPENDING IN 1990's SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY Hideharu Egava Vice President Toshiba Corporation Mr. Egawa is Vice President and Director of the Board, Group Executive Semiconductor Group. After graduating from the Department of Engineering of the University of Tokyo in 1955, he joined Toshiba Corporation and has held various manufacturing and management positions including Group Executive Technology of Semiconductor Group and General Manager of Integrated Circuit Division. He was appointed to his present position in June 1988. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |B*a54007 IMG tXi/lOtm ah\ ] Stepping toward the 1990s CAPITAL SPENDING IN 1990'S SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY HIDEHARU EGAWA Vice President and Director of the Board Toshiba Corporation 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataquestaiSIt? '89Bt^§ttil^ I. 9 0^it(D^mi^mm(o'^m ®m«filcg$S^¥J^2ffia^»ft^U, 90#ft*tC»lS<7)tSilSSl^±li*^lll« icmti>t^e>n^o (D->'J=3>it-<^;L'«» SKS« (90^ft©ttffl]!lQlS«i. T/WX«jg. ':7i/N-g. CRl^(D56)itS«tf±». *«) ^^mikn^f^tmt) (89^ft vs eo^ft) (DSjig«51U V - XltftOKI? i^(0>ttf5« ®>3Xhv-. afl^-;*3 - U ± - Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Title: Semiconductor Industry and Capital Expenditures in the 1990's Speaker: Hideharu Egawa, Toshiba Corporation I. Outlook for Semiconductor Business in the 1990s (1) The worldwide semiconductor market will continue double-digit growth each year. By the late 1990's, it will probably grow to as equal size as the present iron and steel industry. (2) The silicon cycle will continue with much smaller magnitude, so that the repeating of the 1985 recession is not likely to occur. (3) The semiconductor-related trade friction wil also persist, and will remain and influence the semiconductor market. (4) Strategic alliance on an international scale and globalization of industries will make further advances. At the same time, these moves might create "investment friction". (5) The Worldwide ranking of the semiconductor industry will not change much. Key remarks are: i) Re-entry of the US and EC makers to memory markets ii) Segregation of business strategies toward integrated versus specialized companies. iii) Emergence of new type of companies relying on system technology (6) To meet repidly growing markets with diverse needs, the semiconductor industry needs to have a wide variety of enourmouse resources, including researchers, engineers, and capital. As a result, we will see different growth patterns among the semiconductor makers due to their size, performance, and strategy. II. Strategic Investment in the 1990's (1) Advancement of semiconductor technology and evolution of facilities. (Possible advances in sub-micron process technology, device structure, wafer diameter, CR engineering vs machine specification, unit prices. (2) Capital investment and output (comparison between the 1980's and 1990's) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 (3) Limited availability of production engineers and possible solutions (4) Cooperation between equipment makers and customers (5) Production in small size with product variation (6) Quantitative analysis on large and continuous investment (e.g. cash flow vs Capital investment) (7) Management operation on large investment i) Considerations to financing and tax system ii) Securing of stable and reasonable high rate of return Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 StmfcondUOor industry CapUal Inwslment in Hie 1990s H. EGMVA TOSHIBA Ooqnratton Japanese Semiconductor Industry Conference April 20-2L 1989 Tokyo Bay HOton International Tokyo, Japan Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 YESTERDAY AND TODAY - Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstree' Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 1. SUB-yiCRON LfTHOGRAPHV 2. HONOPHOUKSY CONTROL DEPOSmON 3. PHOTO ASSIST PROCESS 4. VERTICAL ETCHING/DOPING 5. CLEANNESS 6. DRY CLEAIMNG 8. EVALUXnON TECHNOLOGY Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 1. Imlt or tochnoloay dmratopmant 256M bit DRAM to 1G bit ORAM In 2000 2. Imlt of maricet dovoiopinont muHwmm la tlio koy fadar haaWhy ^mrth wM oonUniw UH 2000 3. Hmtt of production hmwnent ovw 12% dl CAGR la poaaMo to kaap tB 2000 In 2000: nMriut wM Iw 11.3 trWIon y«n rov vmvth irii bo 1.4 trillion yon Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest aounpanyof The Dun & foadstreetcorporatio n DataQuest •lU a company of MMMM TheDun&BradstreetCorporation TRON ARCHITECTURE MICROCOHPUTER UPDATE Kazuo Kimbara Board Director, Group Executive, Electronic Devices Group Hitachi, Ltd. Vice Chairman, TRON Association Mr. Kimbara is Board Director and Group Executive of the Electronic Devices Group of Hitachi, Ltd. He is in charge of semiconductor devices and electron tube products. His previous positions at Hitachi have included General Manager of the Takasaki Vorks, General Manager of the Musashi Vorks, and General Manager of the Semiconductor and IC Division. Mr. Kimbara received a Bachelor of Engineering degree at the School of Engineering at Nagoya University in 1951. Since June 1986 Mr. Kimbara has played a vital role as the Vice Chairman of the TRON Association. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 \h*sb*om IMG oa/xneudm i Stepping toward the 1990s THE PRESENT STATE AND FUTURE OF THE TRON SPEC MICROPROCESSOR KAZUO KIMBARA Board Director, Group Executive Electronic Devices Group Hitachi, Ltd. 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 K) CD O 3] a Q. 5gL s» ^8 • TRON Project Working Si ^ 2. 3o?^ ^§' CD ^ • TRON Chip & Support Tool OB= O 03 ^ s !•& _*. £2- :3!o 55° • Future Trend CAJTD ^ o -nS a 6 o -2 CA} •>i o N) (O N) Conclusion o o c (Q E Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ro o(O CL a High Performance Microproce (D Si O ?r 0) -Sg • Needs for wide (direct) memory address space M _ D) 3 D O <^5 O T3 I > 4 bit, 8 bit, 16 bit, 3 2 bit, 64 bit in future 5a (64 $•« 50 (0 jy^ ^1 w ' (48 bit) 00-3 T3 ^ o ^ 40 S°5? ^^"' (40 bit) 75 00 -^ O Oo 3 o ^ O 00 c -- S ^ 30 (32 bit) s!& o 5? t (0 ::2!o 0) 535 •«-• (16 bit) CO"D XJ 20 ^ O -n£ §? o- (8 bit) "o5 00 o (4 bit) Micro computer c o 10 N) (O rv> CM CD O 7n 75 80 85 90 95 2 (y s620-ze^ (80t') xej / e^ei-zi. xeiai / oooe-zet' (eof) / seez-isvse vo 'ssor ues 'SMQ v^d jsppty oezi uoiJBJOdioo isejjspBjg -j una ^Mi P AuBdiuoo B 'pajBJOdjooui jsanbejBQ CD (D Performance Q. W o (£2 O o I 1 I 1 IT T X ^5 I I Mill o'CECQ o fD =^ u a- a. (Q c El w "D (/) S^ •D O O (a ho (D O a Q. Market Forecast of 32 bit Micropro (D T) 5J D ?! Very strong demand from market < £ -"> S w Z DJ D I > Big change of forecast in '89 => o c-5 o -o is o $a0) gt- M$/Year u8 3000 K,_3 3000 • 00^ Ji; o °5 Sg^ forecast n mm in'89 CD ^ gCo O CD •~- s i!§: ®750 CD 1000 • 3o 555 co-o o-^ o SS-n S TRON CO ARCHITECTURE •vl o ^3 CD 1985 1990 1992 1995 2000 ho ( Year) ® ; 20 to 25% of total 32bit is expected to be TRON architecture in 2000. ( But, TRON HP will have chance to be between @ and (A)' by change of fore Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ro CO o Q.' TRON (The ^eal-Time Operating System J^Iu Q. (D wH • TRON Project 0) 3 => o c_R O "O s ° • Started June 1984 ' Bl §R S"- • Proposed and supervised by Dr. Ken Saka CO o Si JZ; Q University of Tokyo §-H s? 03 ^ O go O CD • TRON Association 5!g to 3 X 2 %• :2!o !SR • Started June 1986 CAJ^O ^ o -nS 4^ • Chairman: Mr. T. Yamamoto, President, F O S .b. ?^ o rv) Vice Chairman: Mr. K. Kimbara, Board Dir (O ho Hitachi, Ltd. • Over 120 companies participating c E 0) CO CO •D 0) "3 0) • MIH • c^•a . •••"55• o o en (ft "(5 Sc o o O £1 • ••• •^^ "cS "o o • o• ^ +^ c-mmm3 c c LL 0O)) _> • ••i E3 "5) E D) •fr-i* • HMi _c Oo X • • • V Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ro o(D 3) Q. CL (B -o ^ a 77 03^ -" (fl w _ :3 o <^R O "O s ° -5 a0) s» CO o si ^ o ^i BS CD -> Feedback .§B° o on "^ S ^ s!t ^ 3oeg. 53 5 Data input > Decoding/Analysis ^ Dynamic co WD -^ O Tli o 4^ O ro (O N) Intelligent objects v^ 0) c o (Q E CQ U c 3 E E o o Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Ca£lli2l^|— t .elllgen' *'*' Gateway D Window Sliade S wile! I In-hoiisc Cotiirol Diis Adaplot ^••^'tetjSJSi^i^-fl"" .^s> [Gateway! BTRON BUS B = &a===i i=r-i .^& illllllllll illllllilii aniEi P^3 Database Server File O MusiO O Oc n Digitizing Camera Electronic Scale Music Keyboard Syntlieslzer HFDS (Highly Functionally Distributed Syst rrot^JRON PncjEC Human/machine interface Spec, V by IRO Opei^ating system MPU architecture Open Architecture \7 Manuf acturerjf Manufacturer Manuf A ^ V B Z TRON-concept TRON-concept TRON-concept TRO computer OS ctiip home ro (D o 33 CL Organization of IRON Projec Q. a> "O 5J O ^ 0) p" Public Inf n Comm es *; BTRON Te s| Comm TRON TRON Project idoi - • Management O Do O "^ o ai Supervision ~- S Board CTRON Te S!a Comm 3o T. Yamamoto: Chairman K. baKamura !S9 K. Kimbara: Vice Chairman DC0T> 3 -^ O ITRON Tec -nS. O CD Comm O N3 CO ro Chip Tec Comm O) CO *l CO CO CO CO £ _3 G) (rt o a. E >« CJ O a CO V) >^ 3 J£ Q) EC CO O O C tfj _1 CO I- *- CD o > JC o CO CO c CO QJ m c "Q Cfi ^ p> . ^t LJJ Ci I- ^_ —J ^£ (n iiiO O 1- O m CQ a. CO CO CO CO CO CO 0E0 CO CO CO Oi CO CO CO CO CO CO C>O. OO CO CO CO CO cc I- O DC Z o Q. O CQ O o UJ < D. ID 3 LU LU CC < -3 < CO O O Q LL Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 I\3 CD O Q. a. IRON Project (D T) 5J O pr 03 o§ < ^ WHO and WHAT -<» g 03 " D) 3 D O <^9 ^^"v^WHO Board Members of IRON Association fog -°a - lu O (D > Q. WHAT^^^ H F Mi T N Ma 0 NTT St" u8 1 Si B o o o o o o o ^ o S°5^ o o o o o o o "P C 00 ^ OBo o o o o o o o o O CD "-- S M s!S o CD 32 B MPU 3o © © © o o © oj"3 -^ O -nS Developed or -ing o 03 o G MICRO Family o-vl to (C N5 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ^^ 00 ^ OBo Powerful graphic handling O CD ^ s s:t CD =io Well suited for SS9 COT3 ^ O -nB. - TRON spec operating systems ?> o o - High level language CO •vl o N) to Future expandability to 64 bit ro V. GMICRO Family Development ro Q! Q. ~^^^~--~__^ H32/100 H32/200 H32/300 Performance - EDN MIPS 4.5 7 12 - Whetstone 4 5< Coprocessor No Yes Yes Interface MMU on chip No Yes Yes On chip caches No Yes Yes Features Strong High Enhanced bit map performance BCD operation TRON spec chip operation Target . HBTRON • EWS . EWS Market • I/O Controller • Embedded • Office machin • ASIC core controller • Super-minico • Communication processor Sample •89/30 Now •89/40 H32/200 - 32 Bit CPU Advanced 32 Bit High Performance Proces H32/200 Internal Block Diagram F€iatujrei$ Memory Insfrirclion Ptcfclch Uni) Inslruclion Managumcnl Decode Uinl 10 mips performance. ( UDII Instriir^tion Addfcss Brarwl) lnsti(j#»n Window Pruftjictr •< TLB • Cache 5 on-chip caches, 6 stag PreI to left I Decoder In; true lion Insttucliot Address Cactie Address Gen era lor Fully protected MMU en inslrucillon Calcutala Eftcclive Address with 4 level ring domain Data Bu5 •4 Atidress, Operant. Operating system like H Operand instruction set. Address Slore Control (i-ROUl 1=; Logic Buffer OporanrJ Add>rass 4GByte addressing, 16 x Slack Cache Registers registers. I/O Conlrol IJnii hisUuclion Exnciilion Unit Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 o "cS 3 U) *• l^£H o o 9//////7//////A ••• H -r , .-^- • E ~i U •^•. ";/ '"^,' " •-.-]•- y.- • '!,•'•• Q. s>- CT o o '•^" o ift LL >0,:.. B , . Hi. ¥Jfe «*. -* .. . < '^- K,L^ , ' rm, • " -SS- •1i 'i^ V?-i- ^i^'v!-. "S) m D Q '^i 1•:•; m X s CO io s tn < < o 3 D ° m o E*; E (U in >» ^ •^«<* ul ?i'J:^' «l3s 3 (Q ^^t^i^i^^iiiii^^iiJ^ U. ^-.'•. tM- CSJ CO Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 H32 Family Peripherals - Shared Effo « FPU Floating Point Arithmetic Un (Hitachi) » DIVIAC Direct l\/lemory Access Cont (Fujitsu) * TAGM TAG Memory (Fujitsu) • CCM Cache Control and Memory (Mitsubishi) • IRC Interrupt Request Controller (Fujitsu) * GDP Graphic Data Processor (Hitachi) a «3- o O O O O o CO o O 3 O •a CM O O o o O 0) o a T- 5 5 5 5 5 (f) O) o O o o o o CO Z z Z Z Z U) z o o c z *-< cc • •Hi >_ JO o E- o o o Ci E cc £i t: o o o o LU^ o CO o T- "5. T— CM E CM CM 3 o a o en 111 o CM oi csi < o CO CO Q. < o CL (/) (f) CO CO CO cc D CD E U_ Q o < o < X (0 X X X O o cn X E (f) a> C/D X *^ tn u C/5 >. 1 CO "o O 4*^ w O c; 1 h- h- Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 H32/FPU - Floating Point Un For Numerical Processing H32/FPU Programming Mode Features • Fast (4MW1PS (a) 20 FBO FR1 calculation speed. FR2 PHI • Rich command set co IEEE operations. FROM $1 «a.o FROM %2 • 10 • Sixteen 80 bit registe FROM }] R FROM H 1/2 double, extendell). FROM SF rasarvad • IEEE exception hand FMcn M \^//A • Memory to register o -^Inlarrupl Enibia -^ Round • Extended command FSfl Ki M \//////M graphics application SUtut/Condlllons Condillon Tru* ^k , Inlsrrupl Hequ«sl • Co-processor or per YZZA v_ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corpcration 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 oCO ai Q. (D Direct Memory Access Contro ^ a °s -^g CO H 0) 3 H3 3 O <^5 o -a S5 - B) Device Structure Features 5gL $>" u8 Addicss AO lo 29 • REQO lo 3 - ^1 ACKO lo3 . Full 32 bit DMA Controlle 1^1 n.ila IM lo 31 - l'CI0 1o3 ('ciipltMat^Cbnbidi 00^ iOllj)Y data bus, 32 bit address ji; o Hiis Access 1 ypc BAT 0 lo 2 ' ' CSTR s^°i DONiT - •Mi^nf - So Uyto Cotilrol iiC 0 lo 3 •.IIHUI • Four independent DMA c 00 ^ • nrmiN lius:Ki(ce|jfMW; .§C° • i)iir» Q O DO Ulock Access DIOCK -^ •DIIACK - ~~ S Sit • Dual independent buses (vw-*- XIVW —I CS XCS la Local Side bxteasion SidiEK AS-^ J • i_ i ^. 3 % I i!fiir=" cvi i2 i •!= = " ; 11= a 2 ^ Ic S = £ CO 0 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 TAG Memory Controller H32/ Internal Block Diagram Features • Set associative cache s o Memory Colls M<;riiory Cells (.o» O •OGOFD VO Gale Paiily • 98 bit per entry (20 TAG P^rily w + 2 validity). nalj LPI TAG Diild Sonso Ompul Logic Wo • All purge/partial purge. Com Paiily Hf.vti fUJ^Dala parison Cliock Inlernal Replace Internal Mil Inlormallon lii*orfFM(*on 1D« i S OiilpiiEZ{=t Conlrd Fo^il3ilpii l l • 18ns access time from MtilllpUix I ColliIro l I~^ T ' LRU replacement logic llil/llcplaco InloiiHiillon I'l R(l ro Graphic Data Processor oCO 3 d Q. GDP ^ D ?TT ICD <' <= internal Block Diagram Features -^^ iiUS ConUol g"' CDIIUUI CO o Siunals and color type 003 Inleifiipt ^1 Conlfol lnli];iu|}l Or^Ming • Text handing -G^O aP Signal^ CnniJol I'lDEicsai.lir 20 nil 3J FfJ - Bit-mapped text 0^0 f^ o oo 3;^ Hit - Proportional spacing, t M'll l>isf}lhiy 0.ila ilus o "^ ICUit tL CMt O 03 Oala Uiis Mcmoiy ~r InlL'flJCO • Document image process -~- S MPU IciLcrfac? irXcrljcc Signals ^& Inlcftacc Ifriwr^g (B s Signals -^ cm - Raster operation, zoom X i^-w^*?fji;?girw'^ s IL Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 FV) (O H32 Support O g: Total support environment CD "D 5; D TT (1) w _ m D 3 O Features •^5 O "O SS 5 ' D) COD Ji. O Real time in-circuit emulation a CD symbolic debug. O rv) CO Stand alone single board comp ho sensitive development environ T^-^^S^^^fe^:^ '^mmmmm'^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 B E o O T3 cn o CD _a) D) c O CD C/) ca csi CO Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 THOUSAND Mo COMPONENTS _Maximum capacity Cache can 10 (Memory) em Six times ^/density on Components/ 10 / O O' chip 10 O MO A ECL V GaA Integration Trends r\3 oCO X d Q. Logical •D ^ D cache 7^ 03 °I wl 0) u 3 O <^R Physical o -o s° cache •5 aa s» CJ o ^'^1l 00^ ^ a 3J 6D ^§ 00 ^ O Qo O 03 2^ o5 !S5 C0T3 ^1 ^o -nCD SZ! » 6 "E o 3 o ro rCoO On-chip Memory Hierarchy CO CM CO *o •cD <1> 0 O (C E o o o o CO (f) (O o cc V CO 0) E- (/> Q. Jj CO Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ~> (n ZD- DCO T3C/) o< Q. (D (0 c o • ••* *-> C o c o D !••• cu- ro .2o ^^ ^ O) (Q O 0.2 o 0) V. A O) • ••• X eouBLUJO^jed eJO|/\| joj uo!;ej63iu| <: Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporaion 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Conclusions Hitachi participates in IRON project in severa working.Ml Major Efforts are put on the development of GM (H32) family sharing developing man-power w Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, Oki Many customers are now evaluating GMICRO (H microprocessor family as a kit with great perf and unique features. Dataquest nn a company of The Dun & Bradstreel Corporation DataQuest nn a company of MMMM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation HDTV IN THE 1990s Yoshiro Nakamura Executive Director General of Engineering NHK Mr. Nakamura joined NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) after graduating from Vaseda University with a masters degree in electrical engineering in 1955. After having been engaged in research on kinescope recording at the Technical Research Laboratories, he was promoted to Senior Engineer, Studio Engineering Division, Engineering Headquarters in 1967, where he was initially specialized in development of NHK's News Center systems. Then he completed his excellent work in the field of introducing video production system to replace film system. After having served as Director-General of Engineering Headquarters, he was appointed Director-General, General Broadcasting Administration in 1984, with responsibilities for the engineering aspects of program production and network control for NHK radio and television. In 1986, he was appointed Managing Director of Engineering with additional responsibilities for development of direct broadcasting satellites and Hi-Vision (HDTV) and he was also appointed Executive Director-General of Engineering in 1988. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |B4aMooo.iMG oarweaitfiil Stepping toward the 1990s HDTV VIEW IN AN AGE OF 1990s YOSHIRO NAKAMURA Executive Director General of Engineering NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquesf Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8OO0 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 19 9 O i^f^coHCr? T V —r^^^Aitv^ i JAT^F^ --^cz^^^m. 19 8 9^4^2IB B*SC^K?^ ims^ • tJW^ 44^ »6P (^14IsI B*ii^t*^Jil^m) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 19 9 Oi^-f-^c^HID T\^^|^ •fl^^&'A:Kv^ ^ /nS^.^ ---co /N'T b-i/s :/,h!i ? (1) >'^'< k.-->'5 >'CD/,i;^:?:i. oB2?n4 O'-^rc^Si) rif^OT^ut-j iLTNHK;i o^cDfB1iIl^/^j:;:^^,3 5;'J;z.7-< h-izB.witimiht^ls^'^m'^ ^AElis-lSfe^T^ Uk' ' /%-{ fC/ g y " 012^ -•-f\ (Uri?uf] o^SJ.^5 2 5*^^>.$3S0 1 12 53^'^ ^£l.^*?S^TVOii£l±oi 1 2 5:$:t-r5¥J::«fc'3 15IJIla^ilifl^;i Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 liHt;i5-^t'^TK^?T.5c: /N-^fvav-^y'-Jl ::^ ^ s\z ^ N-ffl/ _^ Xd-f)- 3-1 :?J^4 ?-f >*A;^T-u*nS*&<)«i-^t:;-*-EXff9 v2) xui:**ll;iy:^a^r ^7i:LTO;i*<*3 /N-f k-'>-3 yJi refcffiftOrU'fc.-J iLTM5fe^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Xr-fTSCfe InSJ ti-/^--/ n±ii TtT-P r^Xi' \ I / iiiiiiiiP: la \S ^- -» . ••': •-. •••••: 3 f- "••••I' ''•>• ••'•••'• / aff^H:" (1) ^ISfbfftfS] • §SMf^0£7i i >i 5 ::^ ^ •>* :f JtSfe Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ^i'-yff^ntBiliRH • ^.fi i/t^n M ea«f* >, &7-^i«-Ja»A<|^^Ll^ . ftaocEiejptiicjiy^iJss ea^g! *is]SiKiE sti2a;s U > ;^ x'N. * * sr=* (*) y GO » ^ CATV l^S VCR y-f ;?^ ttJSEi*? •f'OK mmti ES tif M^ t*v > > taffy uf^^ojatt /N'T k'i?. :/ NTSC PAL/SECSM 51 § ^""~\„^^ £%»» (*) 112 5 5 2 5 62 5 r'x'i^ hit 1 E : S 4 : 3 4 : 3 7^-il'HJaast (Hr) 6 0 6 0 5 0 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 f-+ >;^;^Tv^^ k*v^ B >tm^<-c-^ i:^ i K m: uii^d sJ:.- MUSE:;^i*(Dl^IS B*o>Ht*fl:tt;71 X^ £?:*•«» ei2«» « 4t 1125/60 MUSE sa^s 2^ m^tuxviT 6 3' ' 'zisjAizti^ms^i< • CSliifS8iff«S#«< 4>r.ifs« 4>r.i»$ ¥« 5c* • <» ^ i^ ' f ft ifi *rt«ie(:**^^S *rt«iec¥«i'S Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ° m'^m^{tt:m^u m^mx-mn^ i7.^i^tm^^) C C I R (SSfeWaftl^MSfi^) T-C05£Ji« 13 7 2^ • B^t 19 8 2" • B*oaS«5{5t9.i 19 8 3" •{^*s?^«aSL.. 1 9 8 S^aft^t^iSCSSMi^ 19 8 5" • &WA<{^iefI!^rott^S (1 1 2 5/6 Ot^JC) Ii5« 1 9 8 B " •fe^-C-1 12 5/6 0^SS:*^'te-rott^S£)£5 19 8 7" •4>r.i#ST- B*ft04<1 1 2 5/6 O^SaS KWi"' 1 2 5 0/50 :^sces 19 8 9" •MM^ajsj) , fetg#g (1 Ofl) 19 9 0" • MUifl) ogrrS-ffittroft^ (2) ^§3 • :^y 7. 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'W t'v a ^IT-ffl (Sft^ofS^Jk) •ifc^iRc;&it>:-i^i.o5Ji?To?sgA^^ smmwzxz z^TsVy^y • S^affl L S I B^%;c J; S 3 7. b ^'-^ > S«vie* Imag* e( HDTV (MUSE) f^i\;' '"^-^iS^^sl •- '.^W.Vi^!.'?-^—V'.'.ji rvJar^-- A fc'OSftiSEJr. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 (2) y^^t'i^3>mm Oli^li^^ffl -f t*v^3 >^^-pfcBiii®3;!f^* (B*) (SF.X) ogjsie ( - ) o^ffi (^D-7 + -) oCF Sic* Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 n±m^nm Ltzmwin • t#feit • la^itT-oji^, j^n^mmc urTSSo^m. ^ < (DAtm^i^^^i^i^t'^r^i^'^^'t'^iznmit A^iitr^cDiSt^ti^o ii^'^liWttfSil^^ ri:?:itfRBi^,{tttfS-> • id^miijiiiriiiii^w h*v 3 >mwiumniy7.7-i.(Dm\ O^^-rfva^v/T^- /hJSfl^'X'^-T^A^'^nii'l^BT'^. LA^fc{g^3X h-CO,1^7i< m^fS.i^i/7^-W>^r', 3 5;iJ7-{;l'i. . $J:I->7^- ±mi Ofie± •^^^t'•>'^>v/7r5'- (Mt4^^&3) ;NHKSJ[i!l-tr>:J'-M7i^3^7if V--pfx-<77-;l'K il|4|rf!^lifisPl^fl Ol'^>h • M^ • ^igB!^.^ • $r < cDA{cKS*>i^n2. # feliBA^ntift^^. :^®®T^-t*-?>*o tt^^'^'f t*i; 3 >li. -f KV bT-©f£ffl • ]Si|B5li{t • K^t-:^ - •> 3-T'©fijffl •^|!^U'»-1f B*t|-C0 3®7;l'5^WN>rt:v^g >i/XxA]g^ ^JtJnTl.^S'fOh Tif7±^nW (64.3~9,|gI5g) ts^f-'-r-r >t« (64.7-11. s*M) mf^utmomn.^ (65.4-9.:*:iR) 1290 RiridPr pf^f n'"'^''o'"''°^'^°'^!?^' ^ °°'^Pa"y °' The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 owm' mf^ • xUt'iJft^Ep^iJt'S t••f••7^E^j?lJ;i<*f^t•f7i<^ mn 525*:^^T'(i mitmzm^ffiK)tto ~:L-x^x:r^--ymmikm6^mmiit' r^i-mpiizL^^jM.'^u^'^th^^. ^ti'^wmizm^ii^m't^m ri^ttc •^N-r t''>'9>#^l75^t)¥*^(-L^c ri-yoj ' V'?;^7^'J >t''>>^X'(D^^n^n^(Dnm^ ^:kmmBf^m. •k\&B%i ti^l-^o • i^g# rjZdiJ (SOJH) OEi^ E^t^W (JTB^l-f^^riOSSJ) • ftiilE;^ (3) /^^tV^>rfiii5g^IiFS /wtfjj.vipJaaa^ai! ^^^^^^^-.__ 2000^ ff It it iS 3?E3 0 0 0ffiB 1 4?12 0 0 0{SB » fim n h 500* 2800* tt 1 4 O- 430- iif /WfcTi?. V>7^- 24* 21 0* EP M*ffi K 1 6* 1 60* Jt f^ 9?i4 0 0 0{EP] 1 4n5 0 0 0iSB 3n aoosn a (sau) 3300' s y7hB3 4300* # y^hWfl 9400* « # 5n3 3ooap] 1^ 3 0 nn .. „,«, .rorrrrso.?s,i^s?sio'o??si.=s°,ir ,«a.«..». HDTV View in an age of 1990s —- status of HDTV development and view on HDTV application — YOSHLRO KAKAMURA Executive Director-General of Engineering N H K (Japan Broadcsting Corporation) April 21 , 1989 ( The mth Japan Semi-conductor Industry Conference .JAPAN ) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 HDTV View in an age of 199O3 — status of HDTV development and view on HDTV application - Vmat is High Definition TV ? (1) HDTV Mechanism In 196'], the year of the Tokyo Olympics, NHK(Japan Broadcasting Corporation) launched research and development for the "Television of the future." The luxury of enjoying clear fine-grained pictures on a wide screen.accompanied by vivid sounds --an experience like in a movie theater, while' still in one's own home— this has been the goal of many years of efforts that led to HDTV. Optimum Viewing and Listening Condition •r Conventional TV FROM 525 LINES TO 1125 LINES The increase in the.number of TV scanning lines, from the current 525 to 1125, has greatly increased the fine detail of the images and dramatically enhanced color reproduction. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 WIDER ASPECT RATIO The aspect ratio - or the height-width ratio of a TV screen- has been changed from S'-^ to 3 = 5.33, like the screens in movie theaters. BIGGER SCREEN AT CLOSER VIEWING POSITION In the case of conventional TV, optimum viewing position is considered to be seven times the height (7H) of the TV screen. But in the case of HDTV, it is 3H. Even if you sit closer to a HDTV set, the pictures won't blur; in fact, you will be able to see more detail than ever. As a result, your viewing range 'will be expanded from 10 degree tc 30 degree and you willhave a much greater sense of reality of being right on the site of the scenes before you. DYNAMIC PCH SOUND Improving the sound quality to that provided by compact disks. PCM sound makes it possible to create high fidility sound that stimulates high definition picture using 3-1 quadraphonic sound systemC there are three channels;left, right and center; in the front and one channel at the rear ) which can match the sound image and picture at the large screen. center loudspeaker lert loudspeaker right loudspeaker / rear loudspeakers \o ^s\ Basic loudspeaker layout example of 3-1 quadraphonic sound system (2) HDTV is not only TV but also "Image Media" because of wide range of HDTV applications HDTV has been developing as to the " television of the future ". HDTV picture quality is as same as 35 mm film, so HDTV technology has been developing in order to aim at the applications in industrial field such as motion picture .printing, medical use and etc. HDTV is expected as a core media in the 21st century. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Media Conversion Disk. Package Disk. (moving picture) (still picture) I notion HDTV picture hard copy conventional printing T V publishing o HDTV Development (1) HDTV Standard STUDIO STANDARD AND TRANSMISSION STANDARD Studio standard with basic parameters for HDTV program production Transmission standard for HDTV program transmission Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 studio standard & trnsmission standard f Studio standard » ^ TransDlsslon standard •* Worldwide unified standard Different from each country's is preferable envlrooent International prograa exchange International prograa cooperation Media conversion Broadcasttni Satellite ^ /^ Studio Terrestrial iRecelver! Broadcasting' 00 1C ATV Motion Picture, VCR Disk. Printing Event, Art Muslua Medical Use HDTV Standard in Japan STUDIO STANDARD HDTV standard compared with conventional TV standard PAL/SECAM Scanning Lines 6 2 5 (numbers) 112 5 5 2 5 H : 3 Aspect Ratio 16:9 H : 3 Field Frequency 6 0 5 0 ( Hz ) 6 0 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 TRANSMISSION STANDARD o^""»"e^L^": I i" L riL^^Liy^rfj^r screen. In another words m^r^^^ ^?'^°''' P'-°Je=tIon on the video HDTV signal tf 3Ug|;?aT;,orf th^n'^M""' ''= '° ""^ ""^ '^''"'"'^ "' Picture Element Picture Reconstruction Transmitting Receiver Field Sub-Sampling (20MH2) (8MH2) -(20MHz)- Outiine of MUSE form Standadlzatlon Schedule in Japan Studio Transmission Standard Standard 19 8 7 Domestic studio standard was set up by B T A 1988 TTC interlD report announced TTC interim report announced 1125/60 system was tentative MUSE system was tentative HDTV HDTV studio standard transmission standard 19 8 9 By the end of 1989, TTC alms By the end of I989. TTC aims to report HDTV studio standard to report HDTV tansmission standard BTA: Broadcasting Technology Association TTC: Telecomaunicatlon Technology Council by Ministry of Post and Telecommunications Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 CCIR activity as for worldwide unified HDTV studio standard 19 7 2 Japan proposed NHK's Hrrv system as a Question 19 8 2 Japan proposed HDTV as a Study Program 19 8 3 HDTV Interim Working Party (IWP 11/6) was settled and started It's study aiming at Recommendation In 1986. 19 8 5 Europe opposed draft Recommendation for HDTV studio standard (1125/60) proposed from IWP 11/6. 1986 1125/60 HDTV system became an only proposal for draft Recommendation for HDTV studio standard, 19 8 7 At the Interim Meeting: U.S.A.,Canada and Japan proposed 1125/60 system as a worldwide unified standard. Europe proposed 1250/50 system as a worldwide unified standard. 19 8 8 Jan. IWP 11/6 May. SC 11 Extra Ordlnery Meeting Oct. CCIR Final Meeting 19 9 0 Hay. : CCIR Plenary Meeting (2) Development of HDTV Equipment Basic development of HDTV equipment such as Camera,VTR and Display has finished. Many improvement of HDTV equioment like compactness, higher quality and lower cost is started. A lot of HDTV programs are produced using those HDTV production chains. Development of HDTV consumer equipment,by using LSI technology,such as home use VTR,Disk, and MUSE receiver is about to start. HDTV Research and Development in NHK 19 6 1 Basic concept of HDTV 19 7 0 Start of genuln R S D of HDTV 19 7 2 HDTV CRT display 1975 HDTV teleclne for TOmm film 1 9 S 0 HDTV studio cafflera 1981 HDTV analogue VTR 19 8 2 Transalaslon systen (MUSE) 19 8 5 Experimental MUSE tranamlsalon at Taukuba Science Expo. 1988 Live MUSE transmission of Soul Olympics 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95lJl-^Jyo / ('HJO) to, ovv View of HDTV Implementation (1) Broadcasting Service NHK plans to bring HDTV into regular use in Japan in 1990, after its broadcasting satellite BS-3 is placed in the geostationarl orbit, For that purpose. NHK is now conducting a series of HDTV experiments with its current broadcasting satellite BS-2. Key of the implementation of HDTV service are atractive programs and, low cost HDTV equipment and consumer receiver. (HDTV program production and broadcasting) * Live program of sports and music event (Asian Games,Olympic Games,World-cup Succer.etc.) * NHK will start approximately one hour per day HDTV service via BS-2(DBS) at I989 fiscal year and increase of service hour ever> year will be resulted in making one DBS channel only for HDTV service. * NHK's real HDTV service will start using BS-3a that is scheduled to launch in summer,1990. HDTV program supplyer except NHK will be able to broadcast HDTV program using spare channel of BS-3b that is scheduled to launch in summer 1991. * Concept of HDTV channel exclusively for HDTV through BS-J; (8 channel DBS service from 1998) (Lower price of consumer HDTV receiver) * Cost down through mass-production due to the increase of demand in the HDTV broadcasting and industrial application field. * Cost down by LSI development in consumer use. Service Image of HDTV (MUSE) Horn* VtUta Di»k Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Satellite Broadcasting • Enlanainments including live shews • News 'Sports 'Graphic audio Home-theater Still-picture Broadcasts security Tele-conference ,.^ Syit«mi CATV Computer Graphics \ . Video'SortwBfB V,;i CAD/CAM ^t-V,fleotn»s,|Wtg,- fe;- l^;,vid»di.csj^^ l^e/ Communication Broadcasting 'f-f^i >v. Advertisements and CMs ^i"X ^- .. i-v, Digital Data^ Packaged Processing 1 Printing and Publications Prografns kL^=;i^^i:i Electronic Publicatlo'n , [/Eled/onic encycIcpe^lM - ^\, Movlas •Vlaeo e»i»l[>guw,,-,T;.j. '.K'-^' • J . - ^ _ 1 i-i'v '-'''"••"'' '^ . Muttl-purpose ' '. • '^'•;-^ti^'--'ri'i"-i.;' • .:*• V^V - : ' ' '-^'j Vi^rWr'-'••"''^^'^^'iW • H)-Vli1on Thaaltt ssentationi Exhibitions •' Hard Copla's T -v-i'- ^' '^ •. • 1. k. ' i*"^^; '^ Hi-Vislon Gallery ' T;::'';/: •Art galleries . _•'• J'/'H'.)' " ., '"I" '. .'^^^iB • Museums .. . ;\,:' •'i ~" •\-J-.^.j.::-,;f;V^-.,- •..•;- -^^ • Libraries "^''',""•.' '- ' • •'!.•'-:'•'j,;-,^'*'.'.;'-.: .'. ••.-\'-K Eduoallon "P^*=»»"^.^.Eihlblt Images ,y 'Electrontc blackboards Medicine »ton ,':]_.-^^^j^^r^^^p ^ ,hgi,„Toorn-..H->; • Elecuontc pictur*-book3 "'"^'iS'-'-r^-*-''-'* °" • '*"(**' r- •• ^•- • Medical education ' jf'•'ii!-<-C'On»''i"'»»«' '• •Diagnoses ;'v. '.^fi'fv.j^ . . • * Envfronmental Images y •••'*'>^!v!K^rV"^";-- •••••' ^ • In a lobby •-13 -p.^l^iii. Spaces V-VV*?;-:.':, • In • waiting room . Snop tpaica • In 1 restaurant v^^.'-'f: •Public t 0 Motion Picture At early stage, movie people in Hollywood have been focusing on the advantages of HDTV electronic special effect such as image synthesis and matt effect. Today, motiom picture production using HDTV system is going on all over the world on business base. Round table conference for motion picture industry of next age and new video system promotion comittee which are supported by Japan motion picture equipment industry association are studying HDTV application in film industry. (Example of Japanese movie using HDTV system) « Teito Monogatari(SFX) * Saiyuuki-Super Monkey(SFX) « Maihime(Matt Effect) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 HDTV Gallery In any museum, art museum and library, art object in their possesion can be aesily exhibited to many people at small space using HDTV video and still picture system. Because HDTV gallery has another advantage such as protection of art works and easy retrieval of the data stored, implementation of this system will be introduced centering around a self-governing body. Kachinary and Information Industries Bureau of HITI is studying in the next age's image information system comittee. * First HDTV gallery system is introduced in the Art Museum of Gifu prefecture in this year. HDTV Theater HDTV theater, which is operated by HDTV technology having the same picture quality as 35mm film, is highly expected as an implementation of HDTV application at early stge because of easy installation at compact space and possibility of lower operating cost through Mini-theater style. Another advantage of HDTV theater is that HDTV signal can be contributed by communication network such as fiber optic cable and communication satellite. * There are more than forty Mini-theaters in all over Japan. * HDTV Theater (open for public and free of charge) :Visitor's plaza in NHK Broadcasting Center(Shibuya,Tokyo) :Media World of SONY(Shinagawa,Tokyo) :City Industrial Promotion Hall of Kawasakik(Kanagawa) Exhibition and Enviromental Images HDTV,which can show many people breathtakingly real enviromental images and high-density visual information with large screen, is highly expected to be introduced to exhibition and enviromental images in public space such as a waiting room in airport, a town office and a libraly and etc, (Example of HDTV exhibition in Japan) '.Tokyo Motor's Show :International Leisure Expo, in Auatralia(Tripple multi-screen system) lExhibition which is planned to use HDTV system "Asia-Pacific Expo.(1989 .t-9.Fukuoka) "World Design Expo.(I989 .7-11.Nagoya) "International Expo, for Flower & Green (1990.M-9. Osaka) 1290 RiddPr P^^fn^Juf c"''°^''°'^!^^' ^ '=°"'P^"y °' ^^® Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Dnve, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Printing Video printing technology, by which video signal can be printed, has developed already, but current 525 video system has limitation of image quality(definition) . Today, even if crusial moment of news and sports games could be recorded sometimes only by video resource, HDTV printing with sufficiant image quality compared with 35mm film can make a quick printing of that crucial scene for news paper and magazine. (Example of printing from HDTV signal) "Photo Album 'Hitsuko' from HDTV program Mitsuko "Picture Card 'Tateyama' from promotion HDTV video Tateyama "Quick reporting photo'from live HDTV broadcasting signal of Soul Olympic Games Medical Use In medical field, HDTV application has been developing. "Recording and transmission of X-Ray images" "Visual teaching material in medicine" (Example; Brain surgery operation was recorded by HDTV system using telescopic lens and was played back for lecture of student) An Estimation of HDTV Harcket Scale HDTV Harcket Estimation ( billion $ ) 2 0 0 0 Total Broadcasting 27.5 1 1 8 Motion Picture 0 . H 2 . 3 0 . U H Video Pachage 0 . 1 P 0.02 0 . 2 T HDTV Theater Printing 0.01 0 . 1 Total Sum 2 8.3 1 2 1 Equipment (Consumer) Manufacturer 2 5.3 M Equipment (Industry) I Manufacturer 7 . 8 T I Program Production 3 . 6 Program Use 7 . 8 Total Sum ij 1 . 1 2 5 0 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation (0 PANEL DISCUSSION Future Microprocessor CISC vs. RISC © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest nn a company of lili The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation VORLD SEMICOHDUCTOR OUTLOOK Hal Feeney Vice President and Director Components Group Dataquest, Incorporated Mr. Feeney is Group Vice President and Director of Dataquest's Components Group. In this capacity, he has direct responsibility for all U.S. semiconductor and component research and coordinates European and Japan-based research. Previously, he was Vice President and Director of Dataquest's Technical Computer Systems Industry Service. Before joining Dataquest, Mr. Feeney was Manager of International Customer Marketing at Intel Corporation, where he was responsible for international marketing/sales support of microcomputer components and development systems. During his 14 years with Intel, Mr. Feeney held various positions in marketing management, product marketing management, and LSI design engineering. Component Design Engineer with General Instrument Corporation. Mr. Feeney received a B.S.E.E. degree from the University of Notre Dame and an M.S.E.E. degree from, Stanford University. He also completed additional graduate studies in Electrical Engineering at the University of Notre Dame. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest VMVB a company ooff The Dun& Bradstreet Corporation DataQuest nn a company of MfJ l The Dun SiBradstFeet Corporation FUTURE mCROPROCESSORS - CISC VS. RISC K.C. Murphy Vice President, Worldwide Application Engineering Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Mr. Murphy began his employment with Advanced Micro Devices in February 1979, in the systems division. His major area of responsibility- was microprocessing design and software support. In 1986, he became Director of North American Field Applications. In 1987, Mr. Murphy was promoted to Vice President of Worldwide Application Engineering and is presently responsible for the systems direction of Advamced Micro Devices. In addition, Mr. Murphy is responsible for corporate applications cind field applications, worldwide, as well as customer education and technical training. Mr. Murphy obtained his B.S.E.E. in 1975 at M.I.T. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD / 4l Stepping Toward the 1990s Future Microprocessors - CISC vs RISC K.C. Murphy Vice President, Applications Advanced Micro Devices '^ Advanced Micro Devices AMD is Successful in r Both CISC and RISC AMD Is a Uader in the iAPX (DOS) Marlcet 30% of all 80286, Leader In Speed AMD is a Leader in the Low End Controller Marl Leader in RISC with AM29000 V Advanced Micro Devices 1 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD ^ 32 Bit Future Market CPU M units RISC TAM 1988 1989 19901991 1992 1993 Data: OalaquMt. Information Nat, AMD V Advanced Micro Devices CPU vs Embedded Processor CPU: Operating System Oriented (MSDOS, Unix) Voiume of CPU Is Volume of Systems Embedded Processor: Laser Beam Printer i/0 Controller Graphics Controller Communications Controller V Advanced Micro Devices . Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD Advanced Micro Devices 32-Bit MPU Market Non-Captive 1993 n Soum: AMD V Advanced Micro Devtcas 32-Bit MPU Marl UNIX 2M 3M DOS/OS-2-32 Bit CPU 13M 13M DOS/OS.2-16BitCPU 4M 3M Other CPU 2M Other Controlier/Misc 4M 25M Total 32 Bit MPU ::2-t-13>2 5 = 40M ASP = $100 Total Marlcat = $4 Billion V Advanced Micro Devices ionn D^^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD iH RISC Market in 1992 By Volume IDT(MrPS) Sun (SPARC) Tl (SPARC) LSI Logic (SPARC, MIPS) AMD (29K Family) Intal (80860) Motorola (86000) Intel (80960, 80860) Slemans (MIPS) Performane* (MIPS) BIT (SPARC) Cypress (SPARC) NEC (MIPS) Fujitsu (SPARC, TRON) Intergraph (Clipper) Hitachi (TRON) OMi: kitarnBtlon MM V Advanced Micro Devices, i3 r 32 Bit Embedded Market 25 CPU o« M units 20 Embedded Processors TAH 15 10 RISC SAM 5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 ""S^^ V Advanced Micro Devices J Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD zy c Demand for Performance »nd»«l/ \ Crtrt/ \ Voluins / \ *i<"* / V*® \ X 1 \«^ 100 ppm "•^^^^ LBP S75K ^"^^^ EW3 3 S 12 17 23 28 35 50 80 100 Performance (Mips) Advanc ad Micr J r RISC Requirements The Criteria to Win • High Performance • Low System Cost • Very high Cost Performance • Complete Family • Development Tools • Third Party Support v Advanced Micro Devices Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD ^ Panther V Advanced Micro Devices, ^ RISC - The Total Solution ^| The Criteria to Win 1. The Economies of Scale 2. Cost-Effective Solutions 3. Higher Performance 4. Hardware Tools 5. Software Tools 6. Support and Education 7. Third Party Support V Advanced Micro Devices Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD L^ 29000 Tools C Compilers Forti'an Compilers Assemblers/ Linker/ Loaders Simulators High Level Language Debuggers Hardware Debuggers Realtime Operating Systems Advanced Micro Devices ^ Fusion Partners Embedded Performance Applied Microsystems Daisy Systems: Green Hills Software Git>bons and Associates Emt>edded Performance: Intermetrics Industrial Programming Gould Electronics: Irvine Compiler Tectiniques Hewlen Padord: MetaWare Intermetrics Kontron Electronics: Micretec Research Quantitative Technologies Logic Automation Verdix Indusirial Programming Support Technologies Mentor Graphics JMI Software Tadpole technology STEP Engineering Phoenix Tachnoiogies Viewpoint Engineering Teradyne Ready Systems V3 Cumulus Telenetworks Rodgers Embedded Performance UniSoft Bitstream Ironies Pipeline Assoc Agfa Custom Associates STEP YAHC V Advanced Micro Devices Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD LK r 29K Upgradability so (5aguar^ 50 JM090S) / Mips y J, 35 j/^^^J (^iooo&) 27 i^oS^^-"''''''''^ 22 'l^boo^ 17 ([29O0O>- 1988 1989 1990 1991 V Advanced Micro Devices A CISC vs RISC Both will provide solutions: • MSDOS World Compatibility Is Key • Unix World CPU Performance is Key • Embedded Processor Cost Performance Is Key V Advanced Micro Devices 8 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 /Fax (408) 437-0292 AMD Voium* MSDOS Unix ^ CISC RISC V Advanced Micro Devices, S r AIUID Stepping Toward the 1990s with CISC and RISC V Advanced Micro Devices ^on^ r,^^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest "•vn auanauTViA:iuHnp:i[iyo f 1 hr O^nS. UraikllCtt CDTpDTJMlon Dataquest nn a company of MMMM TheDun&BradstreetCorpoation n FUTURE MICROPROCESSORS - CISC VS. RISC C. Gordon Bell Vice President, Research and Development Ardent Computer Mr. C. Gordon Bell is Vice President of Research and Development at Ardent Computer, Sunnyvale California. He spend 23 years at Digital Equipment Corporation as Vice President of Research and Development, where he was the architect of various mini- and time-sharing computers. He led the development of VAX and the VAX Computing Environment. Subsequently he was a founder and Vice Chairman of Encore Computer Company, and a Professor of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering at Carnegie-Mellow University. During 1986-1987 he was Assistant Director of the National Science Foundation, including being responsible for NSF's national supercomputing centers. Gordon is a member of various organizations including the ACM, IEEE (Fellow), and the National Academy of Engineering. He was also a founder of The Computer Museum in Boston. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 E)ataQyest ntn 3 company of liO TticIXm&'BradamlCaparainn DataQuest nn a company of IfJi The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation FUTURE MICROPROCESSORS - CISC VS. RISC Tsugio Makimoto General Manager, Semiconductor Design and Development Center Hitachi, Ltd. Dr. Makimoto is General Manager of the Semiconductor Design and Development Center, Semiconductor and IC Division of Hitachi, Ltd. His current responsibilities include all MOS and bipolar device developing operations, including microprocessors, memories, ASICs, linear, digital LSI, etc. He has been with Hitachi since 1959. Dr. Makimoto received a B.S. degree in Applied physics from the University of Tokyo, an M.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University, and a PH.D. from the University of Tokyo. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 o (/) U) 0 o o Q. O O ^^ o b o^ o •- CO 00 wwmmE ^ ^ ^ o •\ CO 0 g CM • S o Q. o E ^ < • O•>•) c CO 3 CO E QC .W H 0) Q. D> Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 CO o Comparison of CISC/RISC Processor 3) d a CD 5J a X- 0) ?^ items CISC RISC < ^ .-^ w _ 0) 3 • Instruction set Complex Reduced n o <^5 O "D '& 5 - m • Machine cycle Long Short O n> > Q- S" c58 • Clock per instruction Long Short 00.S^i • No. of instruction Small Large (Code size) 0^0 g^ 8^ . Control CCT in Chip Large Small -~ a) i!& 5? ^ _L 2. r^lo !55 CJTJ ^ O -nS. P> n .b. O J:>. CO o N> (D N) I h < ^ RISC CISC w _ B) 3 3 O <-^ o -a xoox xxoo XXO 0X0 O $9 " 0) J I 5a 50 100 150 200 250 go- cS8 ^^^1 Number of instructions 00,5 J^ Q -2J Number of RISC/CISC Instructions ^i" 00 ^ O QD Q O (D ^ S s!:3!go S55 CJT^^3 -nS^ O. » 5- o •(>. o ro CO u o E E eg CNJ T- CNJ r^ CM Oi o CoO tw I- CD O + CD D3 o O D) CD •o i i CD 03 c E o CM X CO "CT) O) i LL^ CD (f) £ E i < .•»c- CO C (0 C cc O) CD .g O c o v_ t5 S o t*^ V— •••• TO Q "co CO "c? Q Q Q K 0) -J _j CO c Q < •^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Unit CISC RISC ro o (100KC.) 3) a Q. (D Case 1 sec 1.17 1.2 (*) s; o 3.95 (**) TT Q) Case 2 sec 1.17 w _ 0) =J 3 O (*) Task switch operation of one register window <-5 o -o (**) RISC takes more time to switch & linkage 7 task S 5 registers and to load & store the registers. >CL CJ o ^1 00,^ RISC Takes More Time for Task Switch Operation ^ 9. 00 ^ O Qo O OD ~- 0) 1*1 5? S ffi. rio !S5 C0T3 ^-n SO » 6- "o5 •b o N) (O rv An Example Of RISC/CISC Evaluations ro to o ai a "D Program CISC RISC Note 5J O :^ 03 ?S MIPS 7 10 Mean Instruction Per Second -^S CO _ a) 3 Dhrystone 10000 19300 No w(h)et stone, but d(h)ry stone <^D 5O o -a Eg ° (dhry /s) - D) 5a Whetstone < 4 3.8 Stone for sharpening, cutting tool S» ri o (MWIPS) ^CO 1o si LINPAC 1.1 1.1 Linear-Package ^ Q sg^ (MFLOPS) (Linear equation prQgmnVikmv) 00 ^ geo o ro ^ 3 s!g ss. 3o !55 wo ^ o -nS O 3 j^ o ^3 (O ro >* "GO &5 Si a) CO 5 o O -4= S S = E < < t: O C Q. c ^ o en = "o eon oc 0) O •3 g- Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 N) /' \ CO O Business • Micro Mainframe 3 c:> CL • Business WS a. Application (D • Office Processor -D n D ^.—IJ . High End PC ^ II) ?I 1 1 S CO o~«i ho to N) Application of High Performance 32 Bit Microprocessor Application Needs & Arcliitecture CO O a Q. (D ^"^^---.iVpplication Business Control Engineering T3 :x^- (OD ?^ Needs ^"^^--..^^^ <• "^ -<^ S w i; — B) D Software ++ + =1 O C-5 o -o Compatibility g ° - 0) O(O (D Function ++ — + >Ol ma CO o S^1i Performance + ++ ++ 00,5 JZ; Q Cost + ++ — 3g- ^ 00 ^ o 00 o o on «!a ss. Architecture 3o 53R COTJ ^-n SO g o- '^ =j 3o o ro CO ro o CJ (/) Oi v> a> Q> O O k. Q. O O o O) O) ffl CM CO 00 o^ V) 00 CO 00 o CO O o o o O o S o ion o in o o ^a; o t— To— to eo oa CM Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 tf) (f) Q> O E O — \ CO f y \ co Oi Q. C O£ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQUest aonnpanyf^ The Dun & Kad^reet CorpOTation Dataquest nn a company of MMMM The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation Hajime Sasaki Vice President Director NEC Corporation Mr. Sasaki is Vice President and Director of NEC Corporation. Previously he was General Manager of Microcomputer Products Division and General Manager, of VLSI Development Division. Mr. Sasaki started his career as a Manager of IC Design Engineering Department IC Division. He received a Master of Engineering from the University of Tokyo. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 High-End Microprocessors -- RISC vs CISC - Hajime Sasaki NEC Corporation Vice President and Director Major Application Areas of MPUs Small Control Systems -- Compact MPUs • High-Integration / Single-Chip • Realtime Control Software Personal Computers— Compatible MPUs • High-Integration • Binary Software Compatibility Workstations Performance MPUs • Cache Memory based • Portable Software Systems Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Architecture Developments in MPUs '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 CISC Camp 68000 68020 PDP XRON VAX 16032 V60 RISC Camp i{ RISC-I Pyramid SPARC •^ MIPS LMIPS-^ X R2000 801 RTPC HP Intel Camp 4004 8080 8086 80286 [-j 80386 CISC Advantages Standard (Binary Compatibility) High-level Language Oriented Compact Code Size Cache-less Architecture ^ High-Integration Micros ^ (ASIC, USIC) - 2 -foon Dvj^ n "^p^^^^est Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 RISC Advantages • Higher Performance • Multiple Technologies (CMOS, BiCMOS, ECL, etc) • "To be" Standard i^Performance-Driven Area Market Migration Embedded Personal Workstations Controllers Computers 1-Chip Solution Compatibility u Low-Power <(~~] Low-Power rj> c/D High-Integration High-Integration I—( Compact Code u Performance u O Portable Soft. CO o Standard OS h—I P:^ - 3 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Performance Limitations CISC Limitations • CPI (Clocks Per Inst.) • Complexity RISC Limitations • Memory-speed Requirements • Cache Memory Size Common Limitation • von-Neuman Bottleneck Beyond RISC... • More Performance, More Performance,... • Clock Freq. BiCMOS, ECL, ... • Low CPI Cache Memory • Software Optimizing Compiler • Parallelism Multiple MRUs ^ MISC: ^ Multiple-Instruction Stream Computer :- 4 ipqn RiwHo „P5!^quest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-80.00 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest nn a company of The Dun & Bradslreet Corporation DataQuest nn acompanyof MMMM TticDun&BrafisticctCdqxiration The Microprocessor Market in the '90s William O. Howe President Intel Japan Mr. Howe is President of Intel Japan K.K. He joined the Intel Corporation in 1979 in Portland, Oregon where he was a Customer Marketing Engineer. Mr. Howe held several positions with Intel in Europe before coming to Japan in 1985. Before joining Intel, Mr. Howe spent two years with Bell-Northern Research in Canada. Mr. Howe received a bachelor's degree in Mathematics from Waterloo University in Canada and an M.B.A. from Harvard University. Dataquest Incorporated Japanese Semiconductor Industry Conference April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |B4e540H MG C3/3ttfa3:rf« i Stepping toward the 1990s THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET IN THE '90s WILLIAM O. HOWE President Intel Japan K.K. © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Thf> Hic-rnproppRRnr Markpt in thp 'QOQ Villian 0. Hove President, Intel Japan K.K. (Abstract) There will be three distinct market segments for microprocessors in the '90s, each having different requirement priorities. Thefirst one is SupercoBputer Market. This is a newly emerging market for microprocessors, made possible by the advancement of silicon technology. This market ranges from application accelerators to today's supercomputer equivalent systems. and Is very much performance oriented. The second one is Commercial Harket which is an extension of today's mainstream microprocessor market centered around PC's. The key requirement here is binary compatibility to utilize existing software base and also processor scalability to cover a wide range of system performance. The third one is Embedded Harket which consists of various control applications. The end applications in this segment vary widely, and require turning of processor configuration from application point of view. In order to serve different requirements in each market segment, microprocessors need to be optimized for each segment. Their development also has to be synchronized with design/manufacturing capabilities. The advancement of silicon technology is making it possible to have one million transistors on a chip. By applying this "Megaprocessor" technology, Intel is bringing out three high performance microprocessors turned for each segment. They are i860TH for Supercomputer Harket, i486TH for Commercial Market and 1960 for Embedded Market. i880TM is called "Supercomputer on a Chip", and has the highest performance realized at the microprocessor level i486TH is the latest chip in Intel 80X86 family, and brings full compatibility with 2x to 3x performance increase over i388TH. 1950 is the highest performance 32 bit controller family, and various derivative products are planned to meet diversified controller applications. Beside those "Megaprocessors", Intel is bringing out Digital Video Interactive (DVD technology which is expected to be the heart of future interactive/multi-media systems. This technology makes it possible to put 72 minute full screen/full color motion video on a CD-ROM. The microprocessor market will continue to grow through the '90s, and continued price/performance improvement will be seen for newer products, each of which will be optimumly tuned for different market segments of Supercomputer, Commercial and Embedded Harket. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET IN THE '90S K3 CO O CL Q. (D >^ a ?I -^8 w H B) D =3 O <-5 O "O $9 5a0) g" y8 i| WILLIAM O. HOWE Z:; o SH la PRESIDENT, INTEL JAPAN KK. 00 -^ goo O CD ~~ s s!& ::2!o 5SR COT3 >-n^ So a? K o ro CD K) ENVIRONWIENTAL DIRECTION 8 I h O MEGAPROCESSOR TECHNOLOGY O SOFTWARE ISSUES DOMINATE -^^ CO _ B> 3 13 O O DISTRIBUTED INTELLIGENCE <^9 o -o Sg 5 O USER EXPECTATION INCREASING 5a ES"- w o Si ^ Q SJ feo CD ^ O Qo O O 03 •~- s (D*g 5" 3 ISO C0T3 .^ O Tli. o 3 4^ O CO ~J o ro CD N3 ro MICROPROCESSOR MARKET SEGMENTS oCD ai Q. CD •V 5Jo SUPER COMPUTER MARKET ?I "PERFORMANCE" <' c -<" s w H D) 3 <^=) 5O O "O S o "5 aD) S» CO o si J^ Q. §=i SJ =i6i oc 00=' O0, o ro COMMERCIAL ~~ S i!g "COMPATIBILIT (D S X (D _L S- =io !S° CO"D -n-^ SO Itu R- o ro to to EMBEDDED MARKET "OPTIMIZED CONFIGURATION" SUPER COMPUTER MARKET I\) CD O 3) ai a (D "D ^ D ?^ fCD < 1= -<»8 03 _ B) D SUPER <^=1 5O O "O S o COMPUTERS CD ^ - to O cf > Q. CO 01 Cfl A' CO o MINI SUPERS ^1 SUPER 00 v^ ^ o COMPUTERS CAGR = 24% °5 / \ . SJ MINI SUPERS GRAPHICS/TECHNICAL WORKSTATIONS 00 ^ / \ O Co GRAPHICS/TECHNICAL O CD s!| WORKSTATIONS !3CD 5a COT3 ACCELERATORS ^-n SO ACCELERATORS w o o -95 1987 1991 CA3 TJ o N) CD 730K UNITS 1720K UNITS rv) MARKET REQUIREMENT: PERFORMANCE FIRST SOURCE: DATAQUEST ro CO o COMMERCIAL MARKET 33 ai QL (D < ^ w _ a> 3 13 O <-R MAINFRAME O PC PRdDUCTlON o ^ S o CD ^ • m 1988 1991 5£ ^^ MINICOMPUTER' 19M 26M CO o Si + 12%A1EAR 00 = ~ S. GENERAL SH SJ WORKSTATIONS 0"0 i^ O 00 o "^ O MARKET REQUIREMENT O CD -- S OFFICE i!& — BINARY COMPATIBILITY CD S" AUTOMATION X CD CD rJo — WIDE SCALARBILITY cj-o ~-n~S ° B s- HOME/HOBBY o *>. CO -^J o r>o lO rvj ro EMBEDDED MARKET (O o 3) cL Q. 3J So >J ^ 00=' O Qo PROCESS/ DESIGN TOOLS & O ^ o ro -~- S MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES s!& X O CD 3o 55° 05 "O ^ o Tia .b. O J 3 .b. CO •^ t o ro to ro INTEL MICROPROCESSOR 8 I I SUPER COMPUTER II INTEL i860' -5 aDJ S» EMBEDDED CONTROLLER COMMERCIAL CO o ^1 00,^ INTEL 386'*" ^ S. INTEL 960 ss^ INTEL 486™ 6o O Oo o O CD ~~ S s!g MEGA PROCESSOR TECHNOLOGY 5 s ffi- ::3!o (D O GO'S ^ O 3 4^ O O DESIGN 3 J^ O PROCESS o ro ro O MANUFACTURING 8 INTEL 860™ MICROPROCESSOR (SUPER COMPUTER MA 5 a a (D ?o O 64 BIT SUPER COMPUTING MICROPROCESSOR ;c 03 <• ^ S0% wZ O HIGHLY INTEGRATED, 1 MILLION TRANSISTORS B) o 3 O <~^ — FLOATING POINT UNIT o -o " ffi. — GRAPHICS UNIT Q (D > Q. iCO i —INTEGER UNIT ^-^C71 11 00,^ J!;; o O OPTIMIZED FOR SUPER COMPUTING PERFORMANCE II ~80M FLOPS (@ 40 MHz) FOR FLOATING IE — 50K SHADED TRIANGLES/SEC (@ 40 MHz) FOR GRAPHICS • fl) sH Q. ^S — 85K DRYSTONES (@ 40 MHz) FOR INTEGER :3!o (D O WD ~^ O ;7iS P) o- SUPER COMPUTER ON A CHIP I O ^<• 1<= O RISC INSPIRED FOR SINGLE CLOCK INSTRUCTION EXECUTION s^% CO _ 0) D 3 O O BINARY COMPATIBLE WITH PREVIOUS GENERATIONS 1^5 §0 O^-^ o2 x., T/^TO n3 x.. mmr-i^onjPERFORMANCi A Mr>tE- INCREASiM/-*DrrAOiE- OVEr^\fr~:nR 386OOC-T™M CPU/387/^ni I/OO-TT™M NPX SYS 2a g" O SAME PROGRAMMING MODEL AS 386 CPU 58 ^^-11 O COMPREHENSIVE MULTIPROCESSING SUPPORT 00 ,i ;;o O HIGHLY INTEGRATED SINGLE CHIP DESIGN •!=>• . o d S^ feo ss FULL COMPATIBILITY WITH HIGH PERFORMANCE O Oo O "^ O CD ~- s §!t ^ s 3offi- 535 U>TJ --5 ;7iSi X O" 4i. CO -si o K) CO 10 lo MICROPROCESSOR MIGRATION (COMMERCIAL MAR CD O 3) ad (D -0 ^O TT 0) ?s A MULTIPROCESSING -"•^ MAINFRAME 80X86 < wZ D) 3 =) O .-^ OW° X) a o ^-\ ffi 14156™ CPU §a MINICOMPUTER S'- k \ 386DX™ CPU 11 DIGITAL VIDEO INTERACTIVE (DVI) TECHNOLOG I a> O • DESIGNED FOR INTERACTIVE/MULTI-MEDIA SYSTEMS "I <• c: S (D • INTERGRATE MOTION VIDEO, AUDIO AND GRAPHICS ON A C - CO W _ tU 3 n o • KEY ELEMENTS OF DVI TECHNOLOGY c-O O -o S o CD =i O MOTION VIDEO COMPRESSION ALGORITHM -5 alu S» CO " il — OVER 100 TO 1 COMPRESSION "^ — FULL SCREEN, FULL COLOR MOTION VEDIO-72 MIN. ON A CD-ROM J^ Q. SH 00 3 SO ?Co O VDP1 AND VDP2 PROCESSORS OCO DDP I• l0 ) —HIGH PERFORMANCE PROPRIETARY DESIGN PROCESSORS X !S _ sa rio 53° — VIDEO DECOMPRESSION, VIDEO COMPRESSION co-o --5 -n£ VIDEO MANIPULATION AND DYNAMIC GRAPHICS B> n- O SUPPOFTT SOFTWARE O DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONKIINT 12 INTEL 960 CONTROLLER FAMILY oCO ad . O HIGH PERFORMANCE 32 BIT PROCESSOR FAMILY OFFERING A ^ flj <•£ COMPLETE EMBEDDED CONTROL ARCHITECTURAL SOLUTION. (D ^- Q. SH O MODULAR DESIGN fE i| — FUTURE DERIVATIES PLANNED O CD -~ D) — APPLICATION-OPTIMIZED CONFIGURATION POSSIBLE ^g X (D 0) ::^o ^^ co-o -~ o HIGHEST PERFORMANCE CONTROLLER -nS o CD o N> U3 N) 13 K) SUMMARY CD O Q. Q. (D -0 ^ O O THREE MARKET SEGMENTS FOR MICROPROCESSORS IN '90S TT (U ?! — SUPER COMPUTER -'<•^ £E S w _ 01 13 D O — COMMERCIAL <-^ $O °13 B — EMBEDDED 2a S'- O ARCHITECTURAL OPTIMIZATION NEEDED FOR EACH SEGMENT CO o ^^ O MEGAPROCESSOR TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE... CONTINUOUS PRICE/ Si 00-3 ^ o PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT SJ ^^ o00 o^o o ^ O OD S!a 5? ^ £5- 3o !D O 00 "3 ~~5 *>. OP o- CO -^l O 14 Dataquest nn a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation DataQuest nn a company of MMMm The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation FUTURE MICROPROCESSORS - CISC VS. RISC C. Gordon Bell Vice President, Research and Development Ardent Computer Mr. C. Gordon Bell is Vice President of Research and Development at Ardent Computer, Sunnyvale California. He spend 23 years at Digital Equipment Corporation as Vice President of Research and Development, where he was the architect of various mini- and time-sharing computers. He led the development of VAX and the VAX Computing Environment. Subsequently he was a founder and Vice Chairman of Encore Computer Company, and a Professor of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering at Carnegie-Mellow University. During 1986-1987 he was Assistant Director of the National Science Foundation, including being responsible for NSF's national supercomputing centers. Gordon is a member of various organizations including the ACM, IEEE (Fellow), and the National Academy of Engineering. He was also a founder of The Computer Museum in Boston. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |B4M*012.MG 03/30ffiOwl Stepping toward the 1990s SUPERCOMPUTING IN THE 'SOs -- A DISTRIBUTED, PERSONAL SUPERCOMPUTING PERSPECTIVE DR. a GORDON BELL Vice President, Research and Development Ardent Computer Corporation © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Supercomputing in the 90*s - A Distributed, Personal Supercomputing Perspective Gordon Bell Vice President, Research and Development Ardent Computer Sunnyvale, California EVOLUTION OF COMPUTING STYLES Mini-Super Gnphk Super Super {UNIX V44J) UNIX V&4.3 Coinpuler (UNIX V) Pcrionil Supercomputer Supercomputing Rcglonil iDd Centril (circa 1990) for Science and EBginecrini Ordinary General Purpoac Office, Transaction, and Data Proccning Computing iMilnrnirt Minicomputer IBM ABUNCH DEC el il 0/S-?(UNiX 4) |0(S ..(LNDt V) ww?ooonr>ric3Q;y»» a Dtparlmcnlal and Group Crntilt Inifreactive and Dtslrlbuted Personal Coinpu(tnf> CB 1'1S^S9|ggQ 1960 1970 1980 1990 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Supercomputer - n 1. the fastest scientific and engineering computer, and therefore essential to the power and prestige of the owning organization 2. name given to several classes of computers including supercomputer, mini-supercomputer, graphic supercomputer, and personal supercomputer with the highest scalar and vector performance in their class whose applications performance is guaranteed not to exceed the peak performance specified by the manufacturer 3. any computer capable of supplying computation to a user: a. that a shared supercomputer can supply in one day and b. at a price per computation less than another computer ©Bell, 1989 The Graphics Supercomputer - n. •Class VI Performance - >10 Megaflops (Linpack 100 x 100) using 64-bit, IEEE floating point arithmetic •Multiple, Vector Processors Architecture •Supercomputer and workstation environment compatible •Integrated, interactive graphics with concurrent computation •Highest Graphics Performance - 200,000 shaded polygons per sec •Price constrained at less than $100,000 gb 1^3/88 © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited °^'^^"®®' Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 '^ Ardent ENGINEERING DESIGN PROCESS - FUTURE CAE CAD GjEiomer f" N To F^nofv Requ'remer^lS De£.:jr Cancepr Analysis and Dralling Reqiiiremsrlf^ '' Dssign Ptololype SimulaiidP TODAY Pencil and Paper Model Shop Finite Element 2D Or 3D Manual • Analysts WireUame 'Build and Test' Iterative NEAR Compuier-based 3D Solids Design Optimization 2D or 3D Solids Right First Time Simulalion * FEM Integrated FUTURE with Solids Model CAE Near Term Rcncfils Reduced Time tn Market Reduce Prototyping Cnsis increnscd Acciiracv 1-ulure DNC link m ClNl ^m Ardent MCAE HARDWARE ENVIRONMENTS • Traditional - Corporate Pre-processing IBM Solvers.'processing Post-processing High resoltjlion Average - Departmental dumb disppsys TeKUonix Pre-processing CC Super Mini Super Compulc^ Solvers Cray Postprocessing Soiv(j; = High fesolulion 00 dumb ^lisplays State of the Art - Departmental IAN EWS EWS EWS Mini Super Super Compjler Apt!iio Canvei ' Cray Pre &.PC-51 SGI Siiti Solvers Solvers © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ^^ Ardent FUTURE TRENDS • Future hardware environment Cray Faster LAN GSC GSC GSC Titan Mini-supers may go away Combined balanced graphtcs/scaler/vector performance per user Integrate solids modeling and FEM for a more natural mechanical design process Hardware integration Is ahead of sottware Integration Software application cost will surpass hardware cost Software Environment Multiple applications convergence in one platform. © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 - Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 CEXTRAL PROCESSORS UJUN yEWOHV aOAADS CJ-^ CFT- CJ MBiOSY esu BO*«t3 BOAflC ' Kun:: aousi KwiO' It Ur^DP MU^OC ItUFl.O'' ton II iieciOT irecn^ VKTOIt VECTDfl iiKttrrtPr liurr uwn uwrT 1*1 FT IMVED itviP ilUli' It tup • 1ID« MTECeP •fTEOei MTBiElt KIKJEH rus so »J315 F^ ePj Mro utjr UHn USOfliaXROi T©, KKB WtKMU: BJT^TC-j^ •.I/^TLH. nra C*CHE ttPJiS (tcuiDitt; vuE uwmEfi'i WCHE ^ • 1" ^ tttMA^nSEC GRAPHICS SUBSYSTEM VD SUBSYSTEM I i 1 BCSi OWWJEi KTflCUflD (•HE. UNO POl'ljQN PflOCESOftS CTXERhET. 1 RS-SS. tUDC ^UJS a ^1>MES Df H^GE yOUSL < PMAIXEL PCMT wEHORv P1.US it-arr I-BOFFEP OCLVLi tK^VtEDUr DH MKE8USI^0*rTQ«l tiiOLf »f Ff «s ifr«r itlCrTESEC I ciKiNSON aupxm MIRD *CCr. »iffiL AN:: SM^-^Kh «GC1ISC«S DPJUOEDCiPAfir,-^ -ma *JMF5 ntcvcfSCKXjHj SL"^^:; K4r BASE ENCLOSURE RS<17UC0MP>TEL£ RGB SIGNALS :Aa£U J4G mso ORZ MFEFT ' EXTBMN.SCSI ' WT»F«ceS -> 2 Rs-a: > 1 PAfMifL PORT -» ETHBWET OB CHEAPERNET 1— _» eXTEIWM. VMtBASED DI9CS. 1 TAPE AM) PERIPHEAALS jltEVMWnt- •vaoxiBi irctxoB •11 uoMiTon LT*IL£TJ- [ STEAEC |_ t v^p^p r DESKT DP SUBSY STCH © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 64-bit UNPACK $1K/MFLOP, ttOK/MFLOP nOOK/MFLOt (1000K/MFLOP, 100—iMFLOPS BO 40 20 ^0• Computational Power vs. Price T —I—I— 20000 2 4 "a 2000 4000 8000 10000 Entry Price (x $1000) Ardent Computer LINPACK 1 2 3 4 Beyond LINPACK 100 6.54 9.10 11.03 11.66 200 8.29 12.30 13.94 14.18 Titan Megaflop Performance 300 9.02 13.37 14.72 14.96 Using the LAPACK Library 500 9.74 14.26 15.27 15.44 750 10.20 14.78 15.49 15.61 Number of Processors 1000 10.45 15.01 15.61 15.70 1 2 3 4 100 6.12 9.10 10.56 11.19 Matrix 200 8.97 14.97 19.11 20.82 Order 300 10.36 18.36 24.57 28.63 500 11.79 22.06 30.48 37.93 750 12.61 24.22 34.56 43.44 36.54 (LAPACK exploits block 1000 13.07 25.45 46.63 algorithms, with -20 columns per block) Ardent Computer ©1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 - Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Scalar Multi-processor and Vector Multi-Processor Computers Vector ops 2-7.5X for either 1 or 2 processors Small Linpack approximately 6X for either 1 or 2 processors Large Linpack over lOX for either 1 or 2 processors Livermore loops L7 and L93 Mflops for 1 and 2 processors versus L43 max on 1 processor Mixed vector function (square root, sin, log) benchmark 2.5X to 9X on 1 to 4 processors FFT 6X for 1 processor Wake 3X for 1 and 2 processors Flo 82 1.5X for 2 processors Supercomputer Design Rules (Amdahl's Law or everything matters or no chain... link) 1. the scalar speed must be faster than any previous computer and the fastest of the day 2. provide a vector speed which is a factor of 10-20 times the scalar speed with the potential for an arbitrarily high peak vector speed so that the computer may be called the World's Fastest Computer which some program may exploit 3. provide no holes in which benchmarks can step, and especially attend to input-output and mass storage 4. provide unique functions to out benchmark other computers 5. build at least two product generations into the architecture 6. obeys Computer Design Law #1: provide address bits for at least a decade of constant architecture implementation €)Bcll,19«9 © 1989 Dataquesi Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited '-'^'^'^"®^ Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Computers Tomorrow (5 year forecast) Unprecedented gains in processing power, primary and secondary memories, and graphics Mainline technical computation will follow Cray supercomputer evolution i.e. vector and RISC-based, multiprocessors POP's (Plain Old Processors) using RISC for speed (xl.7/year) RISC vs CISC battle is history and parallelism (x2/year) ... providing 3-4x /yr speedups and giving much lower cost/operation in two forms: •commodities to perform much of the computation (>PC's to personal supers, graphic supers, etc. will replace current technical environments) •very large computer can be built very cheaply CMOS/ECL/GaAs race. CMOS/BiCMOS as short-term winner Computers Tomorrow (5 year forecast) cont'd Automatic vectorization and parallelism for Fortran and C Research multi-computers with "message passing" gets lOO's gain Standards (e.g. UNIX) based. No locked-ins or "Code Museums" lower priced, will vendors still find lock-ins? Networking of various sorts, including ISDN (home/offices services) ... big effect, but mundane Global LAN should be factors of 1000-30,000 times faster! More programming without programmers (SQL, 1-2-3, etc.) What are the new, applications in DP, TP, PC/OA, Desktop publishing. Image Processing? New applications in technical computing are more clear! © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 High Performance Computer Technical Applications Mechanical Design of Things and Factories to Produce Them Simulate look, fluid, thermal, structural, fabrication alts. Direct transfer of information to ...factory ...to thing Small design teams = higher quality, shorter gestation Molecular Design (Biochemistry, chemical, materials, ...) Large Scale Science "Experiments" by Computational Simulation galaxies, atmosphere, ... molecule, atom, nucleus Digital Image processing medicine, earth resources, planning,., surveilence Personal Computer of 2001 Universal laboratory for the home Communications, Robotics (is still a long way off) Impediments to Using Supercomputing Wide scale standard of high definition TV Local Area Networks i.e. Ethernet connect ordinary workstations and minis next generation LANs (FDDI) are needed yesterday, gigabit now Wide Area Networks are needed to interconnect the LANs e.g. the 150 Mbit Japanese ISDN services Old Programs with batch/minicomputer paradigm and pricing inhibit change by analogy, no ECAD or VLSI design programs were carried over from minis or mainframes ... every program was rewritten and a new industry developed User retreading and training for new users University level training for vectors and parallelization Is missing UNIX versus proprietary operating systems with locked in code 3d Interactive versus "text" model of computation VISUALIZATION is totally missing © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DataQuest nn jcDmpjnv PERSPECTIVE ON THE ISMS Dr. Moriji Kuwabara Executive Vice President Senior Executive Manager Engineering Strategy Planning Headquarters Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) Dr. Kuwabara is the Executive Vice President Senior Executive Manager of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) engineering Strategy Planning Headquarters. Mr. Kuwabara has had various Engineering positions since he joined NTT in 1956. Mr. Kuwabara has a Bachelor degree in Engineering Telecommunications from Vaseda University. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 |B*»S4013WG 03/30fflaoht| Stepping toward the 1990s PERSPECTIVE ON THE ISDN DR. MORIJI KUWABARA Executive Vice President Senior Executive Manager Engineering Strategy, Planning Headquarters NTT 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ISDN F'ROSPEC'T April 21. 1989 Moriji Kuwabara Dr. of Engineering Executive Vice President Senior Execuitve Manager Engineering Strategy Plannig Headquaters Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation ©NTT Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Development of TelecoBnunication Service Telephone - '98 years; Telegraph - 119 years 1. 1 Telphone In 1890. telephone operations started in Tokyo and Yokohaaia and between the two cities. Trend in the nuober of telephone subscriptions and the number of telephone sets. At present time : Number of Subscribers 48 Millions (as the end of fy. 1987) phone Sets umber of Telphone subsqriptios ivat izat ion !l Dereguration 1955 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 FY Fig. 1 Trend in Number of Telephone Subscrptions and Telephone Sets Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 OAchi veiiient of Two Major Goals •Quick installation upon application (Elimination of Order Backlog) Achievement on F.Y. 1978 • Calls can be made anywhere in the coutry only by dialing (Nationwide Direct Dialing OQualitative Changes in Telephone Services Operator-Assisted -* Direct Dialing/Immediate / Mating Time Required Connection Status Symbol > Necessity of life Improvement of Telephone-Usage Convenience Automatic Answring Three-way Calling Message Dialing and Recording Automatic Call Toll Free Service Mobile Phone, Personal Forwarding Phone Call Watig Voice Teleconference Personal Radio Paging 1.2 Tel egarm Service 0 1 8 6 9 : Service start in Tokyo and Yokohama 01 8 9 5 : Start of Direct Dialing, Completion of Nationwide Automatic Transmition Network in 1966 Ol 9 8 6 Completion of Telegaram Exchange Automated System (TXAS) Ol 9 8 8 : Changed from Square-Type to Cursive-Type Japanese Syllabary OQualitative Changes in Telegram Service Urgent Contact —> Congratulatory and Condolatory Various forms of telegrams are offered, such as melody telegrams, pressed flower telegrams, etc, 1. 3 Telex Serv ice 0 1 9 5 6 : Service Start 01 9 8 7 : Number of Telex Subscribers About 33. 000 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 2. Development of Infornation-Intensive Society and Advanceoent of Telecommunication Network OFroffi industrial Society to Information-Intensive Society Olncrease in Demand for Non-Telecommunication Services Expectations of Advanced Telecommunication Systems 2.1 From industrial Society to Information-intensive Society (l)Playing a role as the infrastructure of advanced information-intensive society. Ag ing Resources/Energy X ). c Advanced Industrial ogress of I.T, Infomat ion- Society 3=^ Intens ive € Society (Depopulation J [Education j Iverpopulat io 9 Infrastructure ! nfrastructure Transportaton:Railway, Roads, Harbors Transportation:Railway, Roads,Harbors Energy; Electr ic i ty, Gas Energy. Elecor ici ty. Gas 1 nformat ion: Al V in Tof ler :The Third Wave •• Brordcasting, Newspaper, Telecomtri V: New Media, etc. Fig.2 Transportation from Indusrial Society to Advanced Information-Intensive Society (2) ] nf orijiat ion Application Format Table-1 Information Application Format Format Character P icture An imated Media Vo ice (character/ (hardcopy, Type numeral, etc. ) softcopy,etc) Picture Te lecommn ica- Telephone Telegram Facsimile VidcovTEl:; t ion Type Telex Coloil^iFacs. IV.ideoiTelcon- (po i nl to :ile:le^Te;ie:x: }i;igh:;:Speeti:: Jerence ^' point) Facs. -Conference -PC;;iNe;twarl< ^-iiJeotex —V R S Broadcast ing f)f?:;;Ta:ll(?:::: [rwo^^:way:CATV;:;: Type(point to Radio Teletext Facs im ile C ATV mal t i-pon i t) Wire Broad Broadcast ing Television cast ing Satellite;?.;C. Package Type Record, Audio Newspaper Mail V ideo Tape (stand alone) Tape, Av^dio;: ElectTdric Ili«J<: Book Mvi iVideo Disk °^'^'^'^®®' Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Increased Rate lOOTimes 80 ® Facsimile 50 * Consumption 40 • Supply 30 20 lOTimes 8 CATV 5 4 3 Telephone * TV Broadcasting 2 Newspaper Total Volume ITime 10'' 10'^ 10'* 10'^ 10" 10'' 10" Supplied (Consumed) Information Volume Fig - 3 Change in Supplied and Consumed Information Volume over Ten Years Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 2.2 Expectations of Advanced Telecomoiun ict ions Systems (1) Non-Telephone Conmunication via Telephone Network(Data coromunication,facsimi le Comniunicatoin, Video Coromun icat ion) OModem is required to convert digital signals to voice band (the higher the speed, the greater the cost) OTransmission Speed : Generally about 4.800 b/s is maximum limit. ODeterioratation in transmission quality : Cumalative increase in noise and distortion with the increase in distance. OConnection Time :S1 ightly more than ten seconds are required in case of data transmissions, etc. OFunctions necessary for non-telephone service unavialable. OSubject to the telephone tariff. (2) Introduction of New -Network Services ODigital Data Network(DDX Network) •Circuit-Switching Service : High-density (continuous) transni ission 200 b/s ~48kb/s Digital Circuit 1979 : Service Start in Tokyo,Nagoya,Osaka,Yokohama At the end of FY1987 : About 7,000 subsriptions •Packet-Switching Service : Low-density (intermittent) transmission; Transmission of small volume of data 200 b/s ~48k b/s Digitl Circuit 19 8 0 : Service Start in seven major cities 19 8 3 : Interactive connection with telephone network (Type-Ii Packet-switching service) At the end of FY1987 •• About 30,000 subscription in 997 areas ( if type-II packet-switching service is included, about 60,000 subscriptions, about twice the number of the previous year) Hor,,, o^^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 DDX (PACKET-SWITCHING) SERVICE 80,000 CD C 60,000 _i t_ CD J3 40,000 'l- O to J3 20,000 Z3 tn 82 83 84 85 86 87 ;.9 Fig-4 Increase in the number of digital data-transmission circuits Facsmile Communications Network Service • 1981: Service start(A-5 size) in Tokyo and Osaka • 1984: Additional service functions available (A-4 size,center-to-end communications, etc.) • At the end of 1987 •• About 200.000 subscriptions - almost three times the number in the previous year. This sharp increase indica te service applications, and the improvement in the service applications with the expanded service coverage. 300,000 00 m I 200,000 WB •(o_ ^i'i-i'i to JQ ^ 100,000 iiiil wm •;•:••:;; -: I-:-:- ':•:'-'.''-' _ i'l^L:]:: _ 82 83 84 85 86 87 88.9 Fig-5 : Increase in The Number of Facsimile Communictions Network Service contracts 1290 RidriPr P»^f ??rKf'Q'"''°[P°'^!^^' ^ <=°'^Pany of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 OVideotex Communications Network(CAPTAIN Services) • Nov.1984 : Service Start in Tokyo,Osaka,Kyoto and Kobe •Characters, Colored Simple Graphs, Order Entry, Membership Service • At the end of FYISS? : About 60,000 subscribers in 663 areas (About twice the number in the previous year) • Especially, the number of contracts for family use showed a sharp increase (From \Q% of the total at the bigining of service start to 40X of the total in FY1987. ) Such services as mail box and stock information have spread into the home. Deployment of daily necessities ordering systems (supply of horse race informat ion). Total t/3 u o Family Use 00 -a c PC w o 84 85 85 85 85 85 86 86 85 B7 87 87 87 88 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 Fig-6 Increase in The Number of Videotex Communications Service Contracts (3) Value Added Network(VAN) • Advancement of Functions by Various Communications Processing (Media Coversion, Protocol Conversion, etc.) • Fusions of Information Transmission (Ordinary Communications) and Information Processing(Computer) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 3. Deployment of ISDN 3. 1 Progress of Digital Technology (1) Digital Transmission Technology -- Optical- Fiber Transmission Systems (2) Digital Switching Technology ' -- Digital Switching System (3) Application of Digital Transmission Technology to Subscriber Lines — Pingpong Transmission,Echo Canceler 3. 2NetworkIntegration Telephone Set s Telephone NW / \ Telephone Set Facsimile Eqiupment ^^ IT IfacsLBilei I ^^ Facsimi le Eqiupment Telegram Terminal c£] Telegarm NW Telegram Terminal Telex ^^ Telex M L;:^^ Telex Data Terminal <25P Data NWCDDXTI Data Terminal O Telephone Set ' "J^- -/\ Telephone Set Digital Data Terminal ^p" 'c5^ Data Terminal Facsimile Eqi upment Network '^^ Facsimile Eqiupment Telex ^/j- "[\i Telex Fig-7 Network Service integration OWith digita 1 ization, telephopne, data, facsimile, and other signals can be handled by digital pulse. Ointegration of network for each service -- A single network ( ISDN ) • Shared use of facilities • improvement in network usage efficiency OA single network makes composite communications posssible. ^ • Possible to select medium most appropriate to the information to be transm i 11ed. • Example of composite communications -- Telephone and facsimile, simultaneously or swi tch- over. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 4. ISDN Service 4. 1 User-Network Interface OUser-Network Interface Technical requirement when directly connecting equipment to network for information transmission, or when utilizing communications processing services offered by network. Reference Point Standardization of^'—«v Interface ^^ ) 0 hC Communications Equipment- U Independent Development of Communcation Equipment and Network Possible i i i i uu UU OReference Pont: Point to establish interface Point T Point U T T -Terminal Equipment- Network Facility (L IL Terminal Control Terminal Control Equipment Equipment Circuit Terminal Circuit Terminal Point S •- Equipment Equipment Terminal Adaptor Terminal Standardized Communication Point R •• Adaptor H Equipment Existing Communication u Equipment Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 OBas ic 1 nter f ace • Basic Interface : 2 B + D Subscriber Loop (S)ngl« Patr MstalKc Cable, etc.) B Ch*nn«< "\lnlonn«Oon leikJacw] \^t«>«f«r OcuK e ClwirwJ PMket Signal ft*kbt»] Ch«if»i'N*<>*« Mod* Mo Bus Wring OPrimary Group Speed Interface • Pritnary Group Speed Interface : 23B + D / 24B Subscriber Loop fV B Chaon^ fl= (64kbpi)5<23' D Ch»m»«l (Cttbp*) D=5 T7 •Possible to use six B channels as Ho chanel(384 kb/s) or twenty-four B channels as H, channel(1.5 Mb/s ). Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Oun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 OTrend of ISDN Apppl i:ations in Each Country F.Y. Country 1984 , 1985 , 1986 , 1987 , 1988 , 1989 ± linois'Bell Experiments Commercial Chicago U.S.A. Mountain •Bell Experiments Phoenix, Denver Pacific •Bell Experiments (Original Spec.) Danville Commercial (Original Spec.) (CCITT Standards) U.K. Lodon, Manchester, Birmingham Commercial F.R.G. Experiments Mannheim, Stuttgart Experiments Commercial France I • Lannion, St. Brreue, etc. Standards Japan Experiments Commercial (Mitaka) (4 Cities) (27 Cities) Fig - 8 Trend of ISDN Appplications in Each Country loan Dviw D Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 4. 2 INS Net Sprvice OServicc Impl cmenta ion Schedule Year 19 8 8 19 8 9 INS N et 64 • Packet Sw • Circuit Sw -Repletion of Service' Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya INS Net 1500 Serv ice Start • Circuit Sv( • Packet Sw Successive Expansion of Service Area Nation-Wide Expansion Fig - 9 Service Implementation Schedule OCharges for INS Net 64 Services INS-Net 64 (Circuit-switched) Installation Fee ¥72,000 Access Line * Business-use :¥ 5,400 Charge • Residential-use : ¥4,600 Same as Ordinary Call Charge Analog Telephone Rates CHARGES / IMbits (¥) 460H Analog Telephone Network (4800bps] 420 380H 340 300 DDX-C (48kbps) 260 220 180 140 100 60 tNS-N»i64 20 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 eOO(km) Tig - 10 : Charges Per ] Mega bits lonn r,- DataquBst Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 4. 3 INS Net ServiceApplication OUnmanned Sales or Reception System ODatabase Access System OVideo Teleconferencing Systems OCalling Line Identification Olntegraled Communication Systems O I N S- Net 1500 Applications Fig - 1 1 INS Net 1500 Applications Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 5. Future Telecommnucations industry 5. 1 Telecommunications in Japan in 2000 OAnnual Telecommunication Sa1es (Domestic and International Operations) • Sales will exceed 2% of GNP in 1995, but still below USA level. Table - 2 Annual Telecommunications Sales (Doaestic and International) F. Y . 1984 1990 1995 2000 Annual Sales 5.0 7.6 12.4 18.5 (growth rate) (7. 3X) (10. 5X) (8. 3J!) GNP Ratio 1.61% 1.81% 2.30% 2.26% (Trillions of Yen) (Source : Vision of Inforaation Industry in 2000) Reference : GNP Ratio of Annual Telecommunication Sales in Each Country (1986) USA : 2.^2% , IK : 2. 41?S . W. G. 1.11% . France 1.815^ (Source : White Paper on Information Industry in 1988) OTelephone/ Non-Telephone Services • Annual growth rate of none-te 1 phone services is over 10?S. Table- 3 Sales of Telephone/None-Telephone Services Services F, Y. 1985 1990 1995 2000 Telephone Service 4.5 6.2 9.9 14 »Annual Mean Growth Rate (6. 7JS) (9.9X) (1.2%) None Telephone Service 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.6 •Annual Mean Growth Rate (10. 45S) (13. OX) (12.45^) Ratio of 1nvestment i n 16% 18% 20% 25% Information Systems (Trill ions of Yen) (Source: Vis ion of Information Industry in 2000) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Olnvestments in Information Systems One-third of total investment in facilities in 2000. Table - 4 Investment in Information Systems 1984 1990 ?. Y.. 1995 2000 Investments in Informa 9.3 18.5 36 68 tion Systems I nvestments in All Fac i- 84 112 U8 206 1it ies Ratio of Investments in n. \% 16, 6?^ 24.3% 33. \% Information Systems (Tri11 ions of Yen) (Source: Vision of Inforamtion Industry in 2000) OElectronics Indusiries Demand Trend •While demand from the information industries and other industries is increasing, the ratio of demand from the telecommunications in dustry is decreasing. Table - 5 Electronics Industries Demand Trend SeTr^-^Bjy Electro. Telecomm Inf. Ser Other Fin.Demand Product ion Elect 1984 8 0.6 0.3 1.5 17 28 ronics 29.0 % 2.3 % 1.2 % 5.5 % 62.09^ 100% Indus- 1990 15 1.2 1.2 9 37 64 tr les 24. 1 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 14.7 % 57.5% 100% 1995 26 2.2 3. 1 18 75 124 20.7 % 1.8 % 2.5 % 14.4 % 60.6% 100% 2000 41 3.6 8.5 27 149 229 17.8 % 1.6 % 3.7 % 12.0 % 64.9% 100% (Trillions oT Yen) (Source: Vlssion of Information Industries in 2000) 1or.,^ r,.... DataquGst Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 OForecast on Production of Electronics Industries • An annual growth rate of about 9X is expected wolrdwide in production of electronics equipment by communication industries. Especially, areas other than three poles- USA, Japan and Europe - will show remarkable growth in production. Table-6 Forecast of Worldwide Production of Electronic Equipment for Commnunicatuion Industries ^N^eg. North Europe Japan Others Total Year\ Amer ica 1986 248 176 116 58 599 41.55i 29. i% 19. 4X 9.7X ioo?e 1988 284 202 208 102 796 35. 7X 2h.i% 26. IX 12. 8X 100?^ 1990 324 241 228 138 931 34. 8X 25.95^ 24. 5X 14. 8X 1005{ J.992 364 286 286 194 1130 n.2% 2^.2% 25. 3J^ 11.2% 100J5 88-92 6.5?^ 9. 05( %.n nA% 9.2^ A. M. G. R. (Bill ions of US Del iars) (Source : Dataquest 1989.1) Reference : Communication service market is expected three to four times larger than equ i pment market. .oon o ..-, r. "^^^^P^est Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 5.2 Changes in Industries Structure (1) Business Strategy Developoment Trends outilaization of Information Communication as Core of Management Strategies 'information" will become an important factor of production, in addition to capital, labor and land, which were considered the major factors of production in the past. (2) Impact of information Communication on Industrial Structure QFormation of Network-Type Industrial Structure (Communicatios, distributions and financial industries are leading this change.) •Conquering time and distance, free combination of business or industrial functions involeved in multiple companies or industris possible. (Complementary development between global and private networks) Formation of market-oriented industrial systems(one stop shopping , etc. 9 Creation of New Industrial Groups ; Grouping of Companies ; Invitation to change in competitive relationships and employment structure, Networking industries, such as communications, distribution and financial industries, which promote interconnection and advancement of industrial functions of other companies, will play an imporatant role. (3) Transformation of Japanese Industries Toward 2000 ORapid Progress of Inforamtion- Intensive Economy (Lowering Value-Added Rations of Service Industries) • Value Added ratios created by manufacturing fileds will increase with the utilization of information communications covering entire industries, (multiple-item-smal 1-volume production, comprehensive production management, etc.) •With utilization of information communication, inventory, transportation and other costs will be reduced by creating just-in time inventory control in commercial fields. However, in service industries as whole, including financial and insurance business, the value-added ratios will decrease due to the reductiuon in personal expenses, outside sourcing for software products, etc. (1985 : 60. 6X -> 2000 : 55.IX) jy • Declining weight occupied by capital goods in the Japanese econorr^y will level off. ( 1985 : 54. 45^ -> 2000 : 55. 15^ ) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Qun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 While the weight occupied by the tertiary industry in Japan's economy will remmain at a certain level, the appl1ications of informations in the economy will accelerate with an increase in the ratio of information communications expenses in all industries. ( 1985 : 1.55^, -> 2000 = 3. IX ) From the employment structure aspect, the labor force will shift to the service field. ( 1985 : bi.2% -> 2000 : 62. IJ^) 5. S various Issues Required fro Application of Information Communications O Pereparation of Information Communications Applications Systei^s • Need for Information Officer O Establishment of New Market Rule • From a Paper-Transactions Society to an Electronics-Transactions SonetN O Advancement of Information Communication Functions • Fusion of Communicaton, Broadcasting and CATV Responce to Rapid Expansion of HDTV Market. • Developing Multi-Media Interoperability Increasing Urgency for Standardization • Measures for Secur ity O Reduction of Information Communication Cost O Development of Statistical and Analysis Techniques Capable of Responding to New Industrial Society. ( Source ; Report of Study Group on Information Communication and Industrial Structure ; Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications) Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dua & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 Dataquest jcEimpanvof I he Oun S.'ltnddirct Cixpor»lnn DataQuest Vk'n a company of MMMM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT—FUTURE TRENDS Hideki Yoshinari General Manager Semiconductor Production Equipment Development Center Canon Inc. Mr. Yoshinari is General Manager of Canon Inc. Semiconductor Production Equipment Development Center. During his career at Canon, Mr. Yoshinari has held other positions which include Development of Semiconductor Production Equipment and General Manager of Semiconductor Production Equipment Development Division. Mr. Yoshinari graduated from Yokahama National University. Dataquest Incorporated JAPANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE April 20-21, 1989 Tokyo, Japan 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292 ib*aS4oi4.MG avjone'dn} Stepping toward the 1990s SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT -- FUTURE TRENDS HIDEKI YOSHINARI General Manager Semiconductor Production Equipment Development Center Kosugi Plant Canon, Inc. © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April 20 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 ro CD o II CL Q. (D "D ^ O ;«r fl) ?! < £ PHOTOLITHOGRAPHY -"•w I _ B) D 3 o C-R O "O IN THE FUTURE - 0) 5a ES"" CO o Si J^ Q SH For The Coming ss i Halfmicron and Subhalfmicron 00 ^ goo O CD Production -^ s sis 3o !39 Canon CO 13 o^ O 0-n0 S H. YOSHINARI ^o^ CO ro CT) CO O) CD (/> h- O^ o aLU. (/) O a o C£ CD Q. 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O (D ^60% 2.0 ^^ 70% E 5 u. ^ O Q ^ 1.0 A = 436nm NA = 0.55 -^s 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 Linewidth (jLtm) LINEWIDTH vs DOF Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 r>o CO o ci Q. (D "D |o ?l zIF =Va2+b2+c2+d2 <'S -«> S CO _ 03 3 3 O C-O o -o $5 ' S. • Lens Error '•> a 5a S" CO o • Focus Setting Accuracy ; b Si ^ o • Wafer Chuck Flatness 3J ^^ CD ^ • Wafer Flatness 5^ O Oo O O CD ^t DxD Tilting Accuracy 3offi. J 53° WC3 ^ O -nS Chip Topography ; d 'S o Assuming a=0.5 b=0.5 c=Q.8 and d=0.6, CO ~J o ro o OJ 3 ra oLU > LL 3 U. 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TTL Indirect Alignment (He-Ne) n> o- o SB Laser Beam Scanning Method — Dark Field - --4 o ro CO ro TV Image Processing Method — Bright Field ^ C) < < © SiS CC « ."2 CO >. w o O © O 01 O Q 0) *- o -o u. cc W (0 CD 0 LI 111 (/> LU »_ I* 2^ CO •tr o © © < O) 05 < LU io 1 o © o m t^ II ® o o oo LU S X < o V) S> z > H > m Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 (V) (D O 3) IMAGE SIZE CL Q. (D tJ 5J O :x- 0) O LARGER CHIPSIZE tu 3 16M DRAM =J O <^5 o -a S ° Gate Array - a O CD > Q. S^" c58 O HIGHER THROUGHPUT S^^i "-< ^ Q. sg- 6D goCX) o^ o ro ~- S s'a _. 2. riio !S5 CJTJ ^ O -nS B Fi- CO o ro (O ro i*21.2 ^2 (°15) i> (°2 O CO 0) S c < °. s —i O 4-i ^ •?; ^ Q, O ^ a £ <2 0) g> g ^ « 1 S E tS O (0 gas O £ S o Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 O I o S 3 CL o ]^ CC (/> Q. CC OS < CC < -I O 2 tr is S < S 2 m CC 4: (/> u. I csi Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 CD d ID LO /—1> d E in z c d 0^ 0 o CM IT) H ''t D ° < J z O CD 'd 0) -J UJ u. in QC 0) -CO d 0) E > o II CO X Q. < UJ QC 'd —r- 00 CD d d d d (LU7/) uonniosea Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 N) (D O 3) ai PRESENT STATUS OF OUR a. to •V ^ O EXCIMER LASER STEPPER ^- o> < ^ ffi (D 21 FPA-4500 Specifications 03 _ 0) 3 D O C-5 o -o $5 Projection Lens '• • « 1/5 X 5a Magnification S*" S8 NA 0.37 ^1 Field Size ^2^.2n5) 00,5 ji; o Resolution 0.5^171 3J ^§ ge00 ->o o on Laser(KrF) ~~S 5!t Wavelength 248 nm £S. I&. t3o oo c3-o ^ o Spectral Widtii Spin o 3 *>. Pulse Energy >10mJ o N> (D Pulse Flequency >200Hz N) Alignment OFF AXIS Globml 0.2//m(x+3(7) ro SHIPLEY DEEP UV RESIST COMPARIS oCD 3) a ^CO 1y co^ ~ Q. 3J 00 -• OCo O OI —- S 5*^ ^S :io ^5 Better image pro CO 13 ^ O Poor image profile -nS SJQ & low sensitivity & high sensitivity o 3 4^ O ro •r- UJ -o oQ. d 0) ll 1 (~ o in in ID Ln -^ -^ CO CO (N d d d d d d VN Dataquest Incorporated, a connpany of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292 N) to O di Q. CD Tl ^ O TT 0) EXCIMER LASER STEPPER IS THE MOST -<<•o £I wZ PROMISING TOOL FOR THE FABLICATION B> =J =J O <^5 O (oD -3 SO OF SUBHALFMICRON GEOMETRY Q o > Q. (O CD CJl CO o 00,S5i ,^ o The Following Items Should be Improved °5 sg- OS ^ o "0^0 • Overlay Accuracy {OAjutm) O DD ~- S 5!| X "o ^ o • Reliability of Excimer Laser -nS So o 00 o ro (D DataQuest a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet corporation