Anna Brazier Climate Change in Zimbabwe A guide for planners and decision makers

Climate in Change Zimbabwe

A guide for planners and decision makers

2nd edition

Anna Brazier

Climate Change in Zimbabwe

A guide for planners and decision makers Publishers Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 26 Sandringham Drive, Alexandra Park, Harare Tel: 00–263–4-744602 or 00–263–4-744533 or 00–263–772–242578

1st edition 2015 2nd Edition fully revised and updated 2017

Author Anna Brazier Editor Alwyn Francis Photographs David Brazier Infographics Graham van de Ruit Layout and design Graham van de Ruit Printing PrintWorks Any part of this manual may be freely reproduced as long as the meaning of the text is not altered and appropriate acknowledgement and credit are given. Reproduction and translation for education and information purposes are encouraged.

The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of Konrad-Adenauer- Stiftung.

This book was printed in Zimbabwe. iv Acknowledgements the book. For fullbiographies ofourcontributors please refer tothebackor Special thankstoourreviewers andcontributors: Solutions. Practical ActionZimbabwe andCoalition for Market Liberal Manager –UNDP/GEF, Oxfam Zimbabwe; Oxfam Zimbabwe; Zimbabwe; Development Reality Institute; DrL.Unganai, Project Africa Centre for Climate ChangeKnowledge Trust,Action24 Organisation; Women andResources inEastandSouthern Africa, Department ofZimbabwe; Zimbabwe Regional Environmental Water andClimate, Climate ChangeUnit; Meteorological Services during ofEnvironment therevision ofthisedition: theMinistry organisations andindividuals for theirparticipation andfeedback The Konrad Adenauer Foundation thanksthe following Acknowledgements • • • • • • • Climate ChangeManagement Department Elisha N. Moyo, ofEnvironment Ministry Water andClimate, Shingirai Nangombe, Meteorological Department Services Tendayi Marowa, Energy Management Consultant Bulawayo) Dr N. Dube(National University ofScience andTechnology, Chinhoyi) Dr M.R.Ndebele-Murisa (ChinhoyiUniversity ofTechnology, Chinhoyi) Prof F. T. Mugabe (ChinhoyiUniversity ofTechnology, Climate, Climate ChangeManagement Department Washington ofEnvironment Zhakata, Ministry Water and Acronyms and abbreviations v Climate for Development in Africa in Development for Climate New Partnership for Africa’s Development Africa’s for Partnership New Extension & Technical Agricultural of Department Services deficiency syndrome immune Acquired agriculture Conservation adaptation Community-based Network Knowledge and Development Climate mechanism Clean development of parties Conference Agency Management Environmental Oscillation El Niño–Southern of the United Organisation and Agriculture Food Nations Fund Climate Green domestic product Gross Fund Global Environment of Zimbabwe Government virus immunodeficiency Human Determined Contributions Nationally Intended Change on Climate Panel Intergovernmental Low Emissions Development of Zimbabwe Services Department Meteorological 2 equivalents tons of CO Metric actions mitigation appropriate Nationally of Action Programme Adaptation National Strategy Change Response Climate National Policy Climate National Determined Contributions Nationally organisation Non-governmental and forest deforestation emissions from Reducing degradation Acronyms and abbreviations and Acronyms NEPAD ClimDev-Africa AGRITEX AIDS CA CBA CDKN CDM COP EMA ENSO FAO GCF GDP GEF GoZ HIV INDC IPCC LED MSD 2e MtCO NAMA NAPA NCCRS NCP NDC NGO REDD+ vi Acronyms and abbreviations ZINWA ZimStat ZimAsset WFP UNFCCC UNEP UNDP Zimbabwe National Water Authority Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency Transformation Zimbabwe Agendafor Sustainable Socio-economic World Food Programme Change United Nations Framework Convention onClimate United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Development Programme Contents vii 1 x 23 xii 85 49 viii 101 139 185 219 236 245 242 207 230 The basics of climate change The basics of climate The Zimbabwean context The Zimbabwean context The impacts of climate change The impacts of climate Climate change governance Climate change governance How can Zimbabwe adapt? How can Zimbabwe Mitigation options for Zimbabwe Mitigation options for Financing mitigation and adaptation Financing mitigation Conclusions and recommendations and recommendations Conclusions Contents Foreword Introduction in brief This book 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Appendix 1: Resources Appendix 1: Resources Appendix 2: Climate finance resources Glossary Biographies Index viii Foreword are available toclimate-proof ourdevelopment. useful linksto–opportunities for low-carbon development which financial andpracticalperspective. It also discusses–andprovides impacts andactionsfrom climate negotiations, from atechnical, This book provides ofclimate anoverview changeissues,drivers, earned developmental gainsachieved over pastdecades. economic development, with thepotential toreverse thehard- Zimbabwe viewsclimate changeasadirect threat toits socio- effortsthe country’s toachieve sustainable development. result ofclimate changewilllead tofurtherpoverty andsetback depend onvulnerable natural resources, andtheirdepletion asa among otherimpacts.Thelivelihoods ofthepeople ofZimbabwe infrastructure, lossoflives andecosystems anddegradation, water quality, reduced agricultural productivity, damaged Climate changehasresulted indecliningwater resources and agriculture andotherclimate-sensitive livelihoods options. the semi-arid belt ofsouthern Africaandits reliance onrain-fed change, which hasbeenaggravated byits geographical position in communities. Zimbabwe hasnotbeenspared theharmofclimate exacerbated bypoverty andthelimited adaptive capacities of such asfloodsanddroughts. Thisvulnerability hasbeen greatly remains highly vulnerable tofrequent extreme weather events contributed significantly toclimate change,the continent Africahasnot behaviour impellingclimate change.While development unlessurgent stepsare taken tocurtailhuman that are likely toleadacrisisofhuman survival andnational Africa isexperiencingunprecedented climate changephenomena Foreword Foreword ix The book is the product of a collaborative effort, with effort, collaborative of a product is the book The departments, government from and reviews contributions the hoped that is sector. It the private society and civil academia, and decision planners implementers, of use to policy will be book of Zimbabwe. all sectors from makers Zhakata Washington and Water of Environment, Ministry of Climate Change Management, Director Climate, Zimbabwe x Introduction contains a listofresources, including contact details for useful websites, articlesand otherinformation sources. Appendix 2 exploring topicsingreater depthwe provide linkstouseful For moreinformation: For thereader who isinterested in action. excessive detailandpoints of view. The reason for thisistoinspire and tothepoint inorder notto overwhelm thereader with sectoral subjectandwe have triedtokeep theinformation brief Style: Climate changeisacomplex, multifaceted andmulti- councillors, businessleadersandNGO project staff. media, community leadersandmobilisers,parliamentarians, educators andpeople who decideandimplement policy –the aims toinspire its readers toaction,particularly communicators, management that isup-to-date, accurate, relevant anduseful.It The book presents information about climate change considering thedifficulty of predicting its effects. and dependable asany information onclimate changecanbe, version. Theinformation presented here istherefore as reliable have reviewed andcontributed tothisfully revised andupdated climate governance. Leadingclimate changeexpertsinZimbabwe Risk Reduction. Much haschangedsince then,including local Developmental GoalsandtheSendaiFramework for Disaster Climate Conference (COP 21)inDecember 2015,theSustainable and user-friendly, it waspublished before thelandmark Paris due for revision. Although thefirstedition was considered useful Before goingtoathird print runit wasdecidedthat the book was so quickly that the publishers hadtoorder asecond print run. The firstedition ofthisbook came out in2015andstocksran out Introduction Introduction xi local organisations, government departments, academic and academic departments, government organisations, local and websites. NGOs institutions, research each the end of as notes at presented are Citations References: back of the book. the at a bibliography chapter, with new with abounds change is a topic that Language: Climate academic terminology overly and jargon avoided have terms. We A glossary the back possible. terms appears at of important where of the book. xii This book in brief infrastructure, energy supply and the economy generally. have thepotential toaffect Zimbabwe’s food security, health, Rainfall isprojected tobecome more variable. Thesechanges will risebymore than4°Cbefore theendof the21stcentury. models project that average temperatures across Zimbabwe change could have onZimbabwe inthefuture. Various climate result ofglobalwarminganddiscussestheimpactthat climate Chapter 3examinesthechangesthat are already occurring asa to adaptclimate change andvariability. vulnerability tohazards andshocks theability ofthenation resources, human capacity and economy aswell asits people’s Chapter 2gives ofZimbabwe’s anoverview environment, increasingly responsible for emissions. emissions. Asdeveloping nations’ economies grow theyare developed countries have beenresponsible for mostofthe leading tolong-term changesintheclimate. Historically, warming. Thisdisrupts weather patterns andocean currents, Greenhouse gasestrapheat intheatmosphere, causing global natural gas). activities, especially theburningoffossil fuels(coal, oiland huge amounts are increasingly beingreleased through human gases intheatmosphere. Although thesegasesoccur naturally, globallyobserved are due totheexcessive build-up ofgreenhouse scientists that theaccelerated climate changephenomena being weather conditions. There is consensus amonggovernments and long-term change(over aminimum of30years) intheaverage Chapter 1discussesat thecauses ofclimate change–the This bookinbrief This book in brief xiii gives an overview of the international agreements agreements an overview of the international 4 gives Chapter global community to mobilise the in place been put have that Nations is the United player change. A major climate to address main (UNFCCC) whose Change on Climate Convention Framework in order gas concentrations the greenhouse is to stabilise objective Each system. the climate with interference dangerous to prevent session is held in a different (COP) of the parties conference a year of these the most notable date To country to assess progress. governments held in Paris in 2015, where meetings was COP21, pre- below 2°C above rises well global temperature to keep pledged levels. industrial Climate National and a Policy Climate has a National Zimbabwe Nationally its has submitted It Strategy. Change Response give (NDCs), to the UNFCCC.These Determined Contributions in terms of both towards to work a clear target Zimbabwe change. of climate to and mitigation adaptation the change by reducing to climate Chapter 5 discusses adaptation to adapt and their ability increasing of communities, vulnerability (disaster risk reduction). hazards the risks of climate by reducing will lead to that measures adaptation is aiming at Zimbabwe of management improved including development, sustainable businesses and and climate-proofing land and vegetation, water, communities. human gas greenhouse reducing Chapter 6 discusses options for carbon dioxide excess remove to emissions and finding ways of Mitigation sequestration). (carbon the atmosphere from alongside the use of technologies change will entail climate has Zimbabwe and societies. changes to economies fundamental to a target with plan emissions reduction an ambitious produced by 33% gas emissions per capita sector greenhouse energy reduce achieve will by 2030. Zimbabwe below business-as-usual levels xiv This book in brief access finance in order todoso. mitigation andadaptation strategies inplace andhowtheycan planners anddecisionmakers canstarttoput climate change Chapter 8summarisestherecommendations inthisbook onhow them. in accessing climate finance andpresents someways toovercome climate finance options,examinesthebarriers that may befaced enhanced climate action.It discussesinternational anddomestic Chapter 7looks at Climatefinance andothercritical enablers for agriculture methods. improved efficiencyinindustry, andbyinstituting climate-smart this mainly through changestopower generation systemsand 1 The basics of 1 climate change

This chapter was reviewed by Elisha Moyo, Dr Ndebele-Murisa, Dr Dube and Dr Mugabe with contributions from Shingirai Nangombe. The basics of climate change

This chapter looks at what is causing climate change. The greenhouse effect is explained, the action of greenhouse gases is described and the sources of greenhouse gases are analysed. The countries most responsible for causing climate change are named and their contributions are listed. We discuss which countries and populations will be most affected by climate change and examine some of the scientific and other evidence that shows that climate change is already happening.

Chapter summary

Weather, climate variability and climate change 2 Climate variability 4 The greenhouse effect and global warming 6 Greenhouse gases 7 Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and forestry 10 Who is causing it? 11 Climate injustice 16 Evidence for global climate change 18

1 1 The basics of climate change

Climate change will make it harder for farmers to plan what to plant

Weather, climate variability and climate change

Climate change is defined as the long-term change (over decades or centuries) in the Earth’s climate caused by the release of greenhouse gases – notably carbon dioxide and methane – that trap heat in the atmosphere. These gases can be released through natural causes or human activities. Climate change brings about measurable changes in temperature, rainfall or wind patterns, among others, that occur over several decades or longer.

The Earth’s climate has been changing for millions of years, but it is changing faster today than it has for thousands of years (especially since 1980). Most models describing the climate system have shown that the very rapid changes recorded in the 2 The basics of climate change 3 1 Climate change sceptics and denialists sceptics and Climate change do scientists, and a few politicians including Some people, that change is happening. They argue climate that not believe global and that facts wrong got their have most scientists global warming and that Others believe warming is not real. do not think that they but occurring, change are climate climate that They believe responsible. are activities human of the to the rotation linked phenomenon change is a natural the impacts that others argue Yet activity. earth and volcanic Panel by the Intergovernmental change predicted of climate is important It exaggerated. are Change and others on Climate the that agree the world around 97% of scientists to note that observed is being global warming that rapid and increasing by human gas emissions caused to greenhouse due is largely to has been collected of evidence A vast amount activities. support this view. climate change, we must first understand first understand must change, we to understand climate In order variability. and climate climate weather, between the difference such as temperature, of the atmosphere, is the state Weather time and place. a given at wind and air pressure, humidity, One to day. day hour to hour and from can change from Weather In some and the next rainy. the next windy be sunny, may day experience we that so rapidly can change the weather places in a day. types of weather several in occur that conditions weather Climate describes the average that can say We least 30 years. at over or region a particular place past century have been mainly caused by human activities. These activities. by human caused mainly been centurypast have of this book. the focus changes are the climate of Zimbabwe is basically warm, sunny and dry with 1 hotter temperatures between mid-August and November and cooler temperatures between May and mid-August. Zimbabwe has seasonal rainfall that typically occurs between mid-October and mid-March. Statistically, if you pick any day in June in a 30-year record from a weather station in Zimbabwe, there is a high chance that the weather will be cold and dry, whereas in December its likely to be hot and wet. That defines the climate of the station. The basics of climate change Climate variability

It is normal for a climate to vary across time and space. Zimbabwe’s rainfall varies according to the time of year and between years. Some years are wet; others have droughts, with more recent years becoming dryer. Temperature averages and extremes of hot and cold also vary naturally, and some seasons and years are hotter and colder than others.

Climate variability refers to non-permanent and shorter- term changes (those that occur daily, seasonally, annually, inter-annually or over several years), including the fluctuations associated with El Niño (dry) or La Niña (wet) events.1 In one climate cycle (30 years) it is possible to have a cooling trend lasting up to 10 years followed by warming trend of maybe three years, then a drying trend for five years. A country with an unusually wet rainfall season (such as those in Zimbabwe in 1999/2000 and 2016/2017) may be experiencing climate variability. It would be incorrect to conclude that the climate has changed to one of heavy rainfall based on one season’s rainfall.

4 The basics of climate change 5 1 climate is being observed and monitored by the WMO WMO by the is being observed and monitored The climate records have services which meteorological national through observations. These are of weather than 100 years of more sensing and remote institutions by research complemented equipment. radars, buoys and terrestrial satellites, Programme Environment Nations United and the The WMO Panel on Climate the Intergovernmental (UNEP) established and technical, the scientific, Change (IPCC) in 1988 to assess to the understanding relevant information socio-economic impacts and options for potential change, its of climate of thousands of IPCC is a group The and mitigation. adaptation coordination the under which, world the across from scientists assessing global reports produces Nations, of the United change. climate about and evidence knowledge basis the scientific become have the IPCC reports date, To assessments vulnerability negotiations, global climate for Determined Nationally of the Intended and the introduction chapter. discussed in a later are (INDCs) which Contributions and interventions climate to any central The IPCC is thus the globe. across finance in 2014 report of the IPCC was published The fifth assessment it. from is taken in this book of the information and much often failed have IPCC assessments the past five Unfortunately, the needs of Africans. This is because adequately to address poorly are countries in developing and scientists governments bear these countries in IPCC meetings, although represented change. of climate the brunt The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the and the (WMO) Organisation Meteorological The World (IPCC) Climate Change Panel on Intergovernmental 1 The greenhouse effect and global warming

The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon which is strengthened by human activities. A greenhouse is a glass building that allows light and heat in, but prevents heat from escaping. Its original function was to enable plants to be grown in cold countries during winter. The gases in the Earth’s atmosphere The basics of climate change act like the glass in a greenhouse: they allow the sun’s short-wave radiation to pass through, but restrict long-wave radiation (heat) from escaping back into space. The gases trap the heat, causing temperatures in the atmosphere to rise. The atmosphere therefore keeps the planet about 15°C warmer than it would otherwise have been. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the Earth would be too cold for life.

However, human activities have caused excessive greenhouse gases to build up in the atmosphere, causing the planet to heat up too much and too fast, an effect known as global warming. The gases that trap this heat are called greenhouse gases.

Figure 1 shows how greenhouse gases become trapped in the atmosphere and cause global warming. The heating of the atmosphere disturbs the climate system, the global energy balance and hydrological cycles. This leads to many other changes, including increases in extreme events such as heat waves, erratic rainfall, violent storms, intense tropical cyclones, droughts, and the melting of ice packs and snow caps on mountains and at the north and south poles. Global warming also affects ocean and wind currents, leading to changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme weather events, including storms, floods, fires and droughts. Sea levels rise as the ice melts.

6 The basics of climate change 7 1

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r G Greenhouse gases fuels) as fossil or oil (known collectively The burning of coal releases electricity industry and transport and to produce for commercial Large-scale the atmosphere. gases into greenhouse greenhouse to clearing also contribute and forest agriculture gases and 2 shows the main greenhouse gas emissions. Figure see that this we change. From to climate their contribution fuels as burning of fossil 2) emissions from (CO carbon dioxide major are activities and other land-use as deforestation well comes (CH4) mainly gases. Methane of greenhouse contributors Figure 1: The natural and human enhanced greenhouse effect Figure 1: The natural http://peabody. D.C.: Washington Service, National Parks Will Elder, Adapted from yale.edu/sites/default/files/documents/teachers/Global%20Warming_1.pdf from livestock and municipal waste management. Nitrous oxide 1 (N20) comes from agricultural activities mainly related to fertiliser use. Fluorinated gases (including chlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons) come from industrial processes, refrigeration (including air conditioning) and some consumer products.

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The basics of climate change Methane 8%

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Figure 2: The main greenhouse gases responsible for climate change Source: Environmental Protection Agency, based on data from Working Group III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Measuring emissions

Scientists express greenhouse gas emissions in metric tons of CO2 equivalents. This is a measure of the impact of the different greenhouse gases in terms of the amount of CO2 that would create the same amount of warming.

8 The basics of climate change 9 1 Electricity and Agriculture Agriculture and forestry heat production 25% 24% 10% 21% 6% Other 14% Industry Buildings Transport (construction etc) (construction Figure 3 shows the main activities that cause the release of the of the release the cause that main activities shows the 3 Figure of these contribution the percentage gases and greenhouse carbon dioxide Although change globally. to climate activities and methane gas, greenhouse occurring commonly is the most of the agents powerful more are gases in particular fluorinated effect. greenhouse populations have have and populations and economies developed have As countries been released gases have greenhouse and more expanded, more 2 of CO 4 shows how the concentration Figure the atmosphere. into have (in yellow) temperatures has risen as global average (in red) increased. gas emissions cause greenhouse that does not prove The graph the two between correlation strong is a there change, but climate their for as a foundation use this data scientists Most sets of data. activities. by human change is caused climate that evidence Figure 3: The main human activities that release greenhouse gases Figure 3: The main human activities that release 2014a IPCC Adapted from 1 ppm °C

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Figure 4: World atmospheric concentration of CO2 (in parts per million) and average temperature change in degrees Celsius Source: International Energy Agency 2013

To understand climate change, it is useful to know about the natural cycle of carbon and how human activities have altered it. Figure 5 in the box on page 13 shows the main processes involved in the carbon cycle.

Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and forestry

The carbon released from burning fossil fuel is considered to be a more dangerous contributor to climate change than that from natural sources because it is being reintroduced into the carbon cycle after being locked out for thousands of years. The natural sinks of carbon, including the soil, trees and plants and the oceans, are unable to cope with this extra carbon and it is accumulating in the atmosphere and causing the greenhouse effect.

Carbon released when forests are cleared for uses such as 10 The basics of climate change 11 1 population) to population) emissions in relation carbon dioxide agriculture or when wood is burned for fuel also releases fuel also releases for is burned wood or when agriculture 3 Figure from As seen the atmosphere. into carbon unwanted source the original However, 11% of emissions. they contribute for is easier it thus carbon cycle; was the natural of this carbon from carbon than that sinks to absorb this carbon the natural the to cause better not it is obviously said, fuels. That fossil and land clearance from the atmosphere of carbon into release deforestation in chapters 5 and 6, reducing As seen deforestation. to reduce ways important are of vegetation and general clearance change. impacts of climate gas emissions and the greenhouse for the same countries. China produces around 22% of global around China produces the same countries. for is responsible States United the gas emissions, while greenhouse for the rate however, emissions per capita, at look 12%. If we for to 2e compared the USA (6.52 MtCO for China is less than half that emissions terms of per capita In the same year). 2e for 17.62 MtCO Who is causing it? Who is causing of amounts releasing the largest for responsible countries The also the are (historically) the atmosphere gases into greenhouse Their development developed. richest and the most industrially fuels as an using fossil been achieved have growth and economic they have Therefore, industry and commerce. for source energy have that activities through of development their level achieved good) and led to is a common (which the atmosphere polluted impacts. negative change, among other climate most the emitting 6 shows the top 10 countries Figure 2 in metric tons of CO gas in 2011 as measured greenhouse contentious are somewhat 2 e). These figures (MtCO equivalents for per capita alongside figures analysed and need to be carefully emissions ( 1 The carbon cycle All living things, as well as the soil, air and oceans, contain carbon. The carbon found in rocks is not very active in the carbon cycle. As far as climate change is concerned, the main sources of carbon are the atmosphere (2%, mainly as CO2 and CH4), plants and soil (5%), fossil fuels underground (8%) and the oceans (85%). In the carbon cycle plants take CO2 from the atmosphere during photosynthesis and it becomes part of The basics of climate change their tissues. At night plants produce a smaller amount of CO2 as they respire. When plants die and decay the carbon in their tissues becomes part of the soil. Bacteria return some of this carbon to the atmosphere. Plants in the ocean (phytoplankton) absorb huge amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.

For millions of years carbon was passed between plants, the soil, the oceans and the atmosphere in the normal processes of the carbon cycle, with no input from the fossil fuel carbon source. In fact, because fossil fuels formed as decayed plant and animal matter became buried, fossil fuel carbon was effectively taken out of the cycle.

In the last 250 years the increasing extraction and use of fossil fuels (the main source of CO2) and clearing of forests (a smaller source of CO2) have disrupted the natural carbon cycle. Natural processes have managed to absorb much of the extra carbon that we have introduced. The ocean has absorbed about 28% of the extra carbon, while soils and plants have absorbed about 32%. But 40% has remained in the atmosphere and has caused the warming. As human activities put more and more carbon into the cycle, the ability of the oceans, plants and soils to absorb the extra carbon is decreasing.

12 The basics of climate change 13 1 factory Auto and emissions 2 from CO fossil fuels Root Root respiration Plant respiration Animal 2 cycle CO respiration Dead organisms Dead organisms and waste products Fossils and fossil fuels Sunlight Organic Organic carbon Decay organisms from 2 from CO atmosphere uptake Ocean Ocean Photosynthesis oceans have absorbed about one-quarter of the of the one-quarter about absorbed have oceans the Although fuels, the extra fossil from in the atmosphere extra carbon acidic. This more has made theoceans the water carbon in life. is killing sea acidity For more information on the carbon cycle, visit http://carboncycle.aos.wisc. For more edu/ Figure 5: The main processes in the global carbon cycle the top three countries in 2013 were Saudi Arabia (19.65 MtCO2e), 1 Australia (18.02 MtCO2e) and Canada (16.24 MtCO2e) 2. Although China is currently the largest emitter shown in the graph, this is a recent trend. In terms of historical emissions, the U.S. and Europe have contributed the most greenhouse gas emissions.

The biggest new emitters are countries with rapidly growing economies: China, India, Russia, Indonesia and Brazil. In Africa two of the most developed economies, South Africa and Nigeria, The basics of climate change have the highest emissions. If we leave out the figures for South Africa and Nigeria, the continent contributed only 4.6% of total average global greenhouse gas emissions in 2011. Zimbabwe’s total emissions are 64 MtCO2e, which is 0.14% of the world total.

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0–2 2–5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20

Figure 7: Greenhouse gas emissions (in tonnes of CO2 equivalent) per capita Source: United Nations Statistics Division 2010 Figure 7 shows the CO2 emissions per capita around the world in 1 2010. The countries shown in the palest colour produce the lowest emissions per capita.

It seems therefore that emitting increasing amounts of greenhouse gases has been a prerequisite for growth and development. However, there are other ways for countries to develop, as seen in chapter 6. The basics of climate change

Climate injustice

Every living thing on Earth will be affected by climate change, but the regions that will experience the most severe impacts are in the developing world. This is due to several factors: many are in the tropics and sub-tropics where temperatures are already high; low adaptive capacity; lack of finance to institute protective infrastructure and adaptive mechanisms; and the multiple stressors that they already bear, including hunger, poverty and disease. Developing countries that lack climate-resilient infrastructure and whose populations rely on livelihoods like agriculture, fishing and forestry that draw on natural resources and are sensitive to climate are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (see chapters 2 and 3 for more details).

If developing countries followed the same developmental pathway taken by industrialised countries, more greenhouse gases would be released into the atmosphere, leading to more global warming. In global climate change negotiations industrialised countries insist that developing nations reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

However, they do not offer adequate assistance to help developing 16 The basics of climate change 17 1 climate change, less to climate contributes that in a way develop nations on Convention Nations is enshrined in the United that a principle Change (UNFCCC). Climate is every (which development understand that All countries in emissions. Developing is tied to some increase right) nation’s to their right to exercise they have feel therefore countries choice: a difficult They face restrictions. without development and contribute to develop or to continue to stop developing either for the extra emissions under fines change, incurring to climate expected to therefore are They change treaties. the global climate squabbles political These cause. not did they that problem a for pay on this issue see more change action. For climate paralysing are chapter 4. Many Zimbabwean children already travel far to collect water. This will far Many Zimbabwean children already travel worsen in future 1 Evidence for global climate change 3 Meteorological services across the globe have routinely measured climate change phenomena for centuries. The amount of CO2 that has been entering the atmosphere from human activities has been recorded every year since 1958. The increased levels in CO2 strongly mirror the increased temperatures experienced by the planet (as shown in Figure 4). The basics of climate change Scientists first described the greenhouse effect in the mid-19th century when they observed the heat-trapping abilities of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Since then scientists around the world have collected vast amounts of evidence that have led them to agree, without doubt, that the recent rapid change in the global climate and consequent rises in atmospheric and ocean temperatures have been caused by human activities.

Evidence from temperature measurements

Scientists get an impression of the Earth’s past climate by studying tree rings, ice cores, coral growth rings and sediments at the bottom of lakes. The studies show that in the past century the planet underwent an extreme and unusual increase in temperatures that is unlike anything experienced in the last 1,000 years. Detailed global temperature data collected when records began in 1850 show a sharp rise that strongly correlates with increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. Most of the increase in temperatures has occurred since the 1970s. Most of the highest atmospheric and ocean temperatures have been measured in the past 10 years. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 2016 was globally the warmest year on record and the third warmest in a row,4 and 2017 is the second hottest year so far.5 18 The basics of climate change 19 1 2000 1950 1900 1850 0 °C 0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 depicts report, 6 depicts fifth assessment the IPCC’s from taken 8, Figure to 2012 and 1880 from temperatures surface averaged globally the between The total increase of 0.85°C. shows a warming is 0.78°C. 2003−2012 periods 1850−1900 and the of the average Evidence from the oceans from the Evidence correlated are that other effects many measured have Scientists gas emissions. The oceans in greenhouse the increase with a through has been emitted 2 that of the CO amounts absorb large While effects some of the worst process. natural this has reduced more to become the oceans has also caused change, it of climate fishing industry and ruining the global acidic, killing sea life and income. food depend on for millions of people on which to rise, their ability temperatures as ocean that argue Scientists 2 will be reduced. absorb CO ocean surface combined land and ocean surface Figure 8: Observed globally averaged anomaly 1850–2012 temperature 2013 AR5 WG1 IPCC Source: 1 Evidence from snow and ice Global warming has caused melting of glaciers and snow and ice on mountains and at the poles. The melting has caused sea levels to rise by 17 cm in the past decade, threatening hundreds of coastal cities worldwide with flooding. Moreover, because snow and ice are an important water store, the melting has led to a decrease in the quantity and quality of water available in many countries. The basics of climate change

Melting of snow and ice in the Himalayas threatens the water supply of billions

India, China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh (which contain over half the world’s population) depend on the snow and ice in the Himalaya mountains for their water supply.

Normally, during the warm summer months, the snow and ice in the mountains slowly melt and supply Asia’s major rivers, including the Ganges. In winter, cold temperatures cause more snow and ice to form, creating a huge water store for the next year.

If the snow and ice melt too quickly and do not re-form due to warmer winters, the result could be avalanches, floods and landslides followed by major rivers running dry and leaving billions of people with drastic water shortages.

Furthermore, the continued melting of glaciers affects the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (also known as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, which is driven by differences in temperatures and salinity) as well as the ocean water density and the ocean- atmosphere interactions. These disturbances could be catastrophic 20 The basics of climate change 21 1 ocean currents to move to move currents ocean warm causing system, the climate for there. coldness reducing and regions to the polar the equator from Evidence of extreme events 8 of extreme Evidence of and intensity in the frequency has been an increase There tropical droughts, waves, such as heat events weather extreme fanned increasingly have waves and storms. Heat cyclones North America in particularly on almost everycontinent, wildfires human of vegetation, vast areas destroying and Australasia, storms years In recent lives. and sometimes human settlements and settlements, to crops devastation caused and floods have America. Africa and Latin in Asia, Europe, particularly Evidence from plants and animals 7 from plants and Evidence shown and seas have as fish in rivers and animals as well Plants and change by shifts in their locations the impact of climate have 1970 scientists Since in their populations. reductions of populations a decline of 52% in representative measured attributed is which fish, and amphibians reptiles, birds, mammals, change. As temperatures climate including activities, to human to areas to cooler moved and animals have risen, plants have survive. 1 Endnotes 1 World Meteorological Organisation: www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.php

2 Data from Union of Concerned Scientists website taken from the Energy Information Agency data compiled by the Energy Information Agency (www.ucsusa.org)

3 Most of the information in this section has been taken from IPCC 2014a – “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report IPCC”, Geneva: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/, accessed August 2015. A summary is available at http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

4 NASA. “Warmest Year on Record Globally”: www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data- show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

The basics of climate change 5 Climate Central. “2017 Second Hottest Year”: www.climatecentral.org/news/midway- point-2017-2nd-hottest-year-21625

6 IPCC 2013. “The Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report”: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf

7 For more information about the impact of climate change on plants and animals, see “Living Planet Report 2016”. World Wildlife Fund: http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/ lpr_living_planet_report_2016.pdf

8 For more information on climate extremes and climate change, see Sneed, A. 2017. “Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change”. Scientific American: www. scientificamerican.com/article/yes-some-extreme-weather-can-be-blamed-on-climate- change/; Huber, D. and Gulledge J., 2011. “Extreme Weather and Climate Change”. Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions: www.c2es.org/publications/extreme-weather-and-climate- change; and Union of Concerned Scientists. “Is Global Warming Linked to Severe Weather?”: www. ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/global-warming-rain-snow- tornadoes.html#.WcDj7tFx3IU

22 2 The Zimbabwean 2 context

This chapter was reviewed by Dr Dube with contributions from Shingirai Nangombe, Prof. Mugabe, Elisha Moyo and Dr Ndebele-Murisa The Zimbabwean context

In this chapter we look at the current state of people, land and economy in Zimbabwe, in terms of vulnerability to climate change as well as the adaptive capacity of Zimbabwean communities.

Chapter summary

Climate 24 Natural resources 31 Natural/agroecological regions 32 Water 35 People 40 Economy 43

23 Zimbabwe is endowed with abundant human and natural 2 resources and infrastructure – roads, urban and rural settlements, healthcare and educational facilities – giving it the potential for high adaptive capacity. However, the availability of most natural resources is climate-sensitive. Theeconomy is heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, mining and hydro-powered electricity. Thus, its strength and stability are linked to the climate and the state of water resources. Due to historical injustices and more

The Zimbabwean context recent socio-economic and developmental setbacks, many of these resources have become degraded, leading to increased vulnerability to hazards and shocks, including those linked to climate change and variability.

Vulnerability denotes the level of exposure to hazards, sensitivity to the effects of hazards and the capacity to adapt to the new conditions that climate change is likely to present, including developing resilience to potential hazards.

Climate 1

Zimbabwe is located in the sub-tropics, which makes rainfall the most important climate parameter. The climate is strongly influenced by the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, which brings rainfall through the collision of warm moist air masses from the north and cool air masses from the south. Zimbabwe has a hot rainy season with significant rainfall for about four months between October and March followed by a dry period of about six months. The cold dry season lasts for about three months from May to July. 24 The Zimbabwean context 25 2 Rainfall in terms rainfall patterns variable has one of the most Zimbabwe and dry time and space, spells and droughts across of distribution season, it rainy During an average part of a normal cycle. are dry to five spells four the country to experience is normal for often lengths. Flash flooding and hailstorms are of different season. the rainy during experienced seasonal rainfall since in average 9 shows the variability Figure zigzagging began in 1901. As is shown by the strongly records average in wide fluctuations has experienced line, Zimbabwe red line on the graph The the last century. seasonal rainfall over declining. The decline rainfall is gradually average that indicates change. climate and human-induced to natural is attributed Most rural Zimbabwean depend on water sources that are far from their far Zimbabwean depend on water sources that are Most rural homes. This will worsen in future mm 2 1,200

1,000

800

600

400

The Zimbabwean context 200 1914/15 1974/75 1934/35 1919/20 1954/55 1924/25 1944/45 1964/65 1909/10 1994/95 1984/85 1969/70 1979/80 1929/30 1939/40 1949/50 1959/60 1904/05 1989/90 2009/10 2004/05 1999/2000

Figure 9: Zimbabwe average seasonal rainfall (mm) 1901/02 to 2009/10 Source: Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe also experiences wide variations in the rainfall distribution across the country. The higher-altitude districts along the central watershed and the eastern highlands typically experience greater amounts of rain (above 1,000 mm per season) than low-lying areas and in the west (350–450 mm per season). The western parts usually receive the first rains of the season when cloud bands appear from the west before the main rain- bearing systems build up, producing the convectional rainfall which is the bulk of the type of rainfall received across the country during a normal rainy season.

The southern and south-eastern parts occasionally experience drizzle, or guti, and light rain brought by cool, moist south- easterly air masses from the Indian Ocean during both summer and winter. Relief rainfall is often experienced along the main watershed and in the eastern highlands. Figure 10 shows the average rainfall distribution across the country.

26 The Zimbabwean context 27 2 Manicaland Central East Masvingo Harare Mashonaland Mashonaland West Midlands Mashonaland South Matabeleland Bulawayo Matabeleland North ,+ − − − − − − >  mm Temperature and this is mainly Zimbabwe also varies across Temperature central the elevated average On in altitude. to differences due temperatures lower experience and eastern highlands watershed 11 shows the Figure and south. in the west areas than low-lying the with the country, across temperatures maximum average in the eastern being experienced temperatures maximum lowest and in the west areas highlands and the hottest in the low-lying is range which temperature a daily have All areas south. extreme than 10°C to by more increasing sunrise, usually just before lowest mid-afternoon. around the maximum reach rainfall map 1980/81 to 2009/2010 annual rainfall Figure 10: Zimbabwe average Department of Zimbabwe 2 Services Meteorological Source: 2 Mashonaland Central Mashonaland West

Harare

Mashonaland East

Matabeleland North Midlands Manicaland The Zimbabwean context Bulawayo °C   Masvingo  Matabeleland South    

Figure 11: Zimbabwe average maximum temperatures map 1980/81 to 2009/2010 Source: Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe

Climate-related hazards

Weather hazards experienced in Zimbabwe commonly include tropical cyclones and thunderstorms, sometimes leading to hailstorms, heat waves, floods and flash flooding. The most flood- prone areas are shown in Figure 12b. The country is often affected by mid-season dry spells and droughts lasting from one to three years and occurring every five to seven years.3 Figure 12a shows the most drought-prone areas. Temperature extremes can cause ground frost during the cold season and heat waves during the hot season. In the past few years there has been an increase in violent storms, with sudden strong winds occurring over small geographical areas (micro- and macro-bursts). These can cause serious destruction to property, crops and forests as well as loss of life.4 28 The Zimbabwean context 29 2 floods are part of a natural cycle, partly influenced influenced partly cycle, part of a natural and floods are Droughts Oscillation called the El Niño–Southern pattern by a climate Pacific Ocean. in the equatorial originates (ENSO), which mechanism ENSO is a dominant long noted that have Researchers Southern over extremes and climate weather for responsible During some years predictions. drought use for its Africa,5 hence Ocean east Pacific in the equatorial sea temperatures of the cycle, the across rainfall fluctuations causes normal and this rise above The can last up to nine months. An El Niño hemisphere. southern in Zimbabwe droughts and events El Niño between correlation Africa were in southern years is very high.6 The past 10 drought Niña Niño is called La of an El 7 The opposite years. all El Niño in and often results of El Niño) phase to as the cold (also referred Niña effects La rainfall and flooding in parts of Zimbabwe. heavy below average cooling of the Pacific Ocean the waters from result temperatures. Rainfall over Harare Rainfall Mashonaland 2 Central Mashonaland West

Harare

Mashonaland East

Matabeleland North Midlands Manicaland The Zimbabwean context Bulawayo

Masvingo Matabeleland South Less severe More severe

Figure 12a: Zimbabwe’s drought-prone areas Source: Zimbabwe National Water Authority

Chidodo

Manyame

Sanyati Mazowe

Mvuma Save

Gwayi Marange

Tsholotsho Runde

Mzingwane Shangani Catchment Flood prone areas Flash floods

Figure 12b: Flood-prone areas Source: OCHA 30 The Zimbabwean context 31 2 Ecosystem services such organisms, of living is a community An ecosystem parts of their animals, and the non-living and as plants Ecosystem air and water. such as soil, rocks, environment ecosystems. humans get from that the benefits servicesare (through and air, waste disposal water food, clean They include of pests and diseases, and fuel, control fertiliser, decay), regulation. climate Climate change is expected to bring an increase in average in average an increase to bring is expected change Climate the country the end of the of up to 4°C by across temperatures in average decrease a models project climate 8 Most century. country most parts of the rainfall in under the most probable small Other models project emission scenarios. and worst-case and eastern parts of in some parts of the northern increases expected to are and extremes 9 Rainfall variability the country. and floods such as droughts hazards and climate-related increase impacts are These and severe. frequent more to become likely are in chapter 3. described in detail Natural resources Natural minerals, including resources, natural has abundant Zimbabwe 10 The population and wildlife. forests land, water, agricultural services on ecosystem depends heavily in urban and rural areas soils and trees fertile supply, water a clean, regular provide that on draw Zimbabweans Many fuel, building and fencing. for insects and mushrooms vegetables, fruit, – sources food important natural harvested from – and timber and non-timber products of season. is out produce agricultural in times when areas 2 Degradation of natural resources These vital natural resources and services have become degraded through various human activities. Some notable examples are soil erosion, siltation of rivers and dams, veld fires, burning for land clearing, infrastructural developments and cultivation in wetlands, deforestation and poor grazing management. The establishment of human settlements in fragile ecosystems, lack

The Zimbabwean context of control of water run-off on slopes and uncontrolled open-cast mining have added to the degradation of ecosystems and the services they provide.

Deforestation has become a major problem as forests are cleared in preparation for agriculture, for fencing and as firewood for cooking, tobacco curing and brick making. Zimbabwe is losing its forest cover at a rate of 9% per decade and lost 36% of its forests between 1990 and 2015.11

Destruction of natural habitats, pressure from human settlements and poaching have decimated wildlife populations, particularly those of endangered species. Climate change will accelerate the degradation and its impacts will be felt more strongly.

Natural/agroecological regions

Zimbabwe is divided into the five natural regions shown in Figure 13 based on soil types, vegetation and climate. The regions were mapped as a result of a rigorous agroecological survey of soils, vegetation and climate carried out in the 1960s to help planners identify the optimum types of agricultural land use for each part of the country. Many scientists propose that the natural region map be redrawn because of climate change, with regions IV and V 32 The Zimbabwean context 33 2 Manicaland Central East Masvingo Harare Mashonaland Mashonaland West Midlands Mashonaland South Matabeleland Bulawayo Matabeleland North Region V Region IV Region III Region IIB Region IIA Region I Region This is discussed is discussed 12 This and IV less. I, III regions and area more covering chapter 3. in detail in Natural Region descriptions low temperatures 1,000mm per year), I: High rainfall (over Region farming, dairy, arable high-value for and steep slopes. Suitable and forestry. horticulture rainfall (750 to 1,000 mm per year). II: Medium Region good. generally and soils are not extreme are Temperatures and dairy. horticulture farming, including intensive for Suitable mid-season with III: Low rainfall (500–750 mm per year), Region natural regions Figure 13: Zimbabwe’s natural Department Services Meteorological Source: 2 The Zimbabwean context

A typical rural scene in northern Zimbabwe

dry spells and high temperatures. A semi-intensive farming region suitable for field crops such as maize, soya, tobacco and cotton as well as livestock.

Region IV: Low rainfall (450–650 mm per year), with severe dry spells during the rainy season and frequent seasonal droughts. Suitable for livestock and drought-tolerant field crops such as sorghum, millet, cowpeas and groundnuts.

Region V: Highly erratic and very low rainfall (less than 650 mm per year). Suitable for livestock, wildlife management, beekeeping and non-timber forest products.

34 The Zimbabwean context 35 2 , the southernmost districts of Zimbabwe experience experience districts of Zimbabwe 14, the southernmost 13 Water and of livelihoods the distribution dictates availability Water to According Zimbabwe. across occur that activities economic analyses water is insufficient there meaning that scarcity, water physical country rest of the experiences needs. The human to satisfy and denoting a lack of infrastructure scarcity, water economic in is available that to water hinder access that finance limited options, adaptation climate to many is also central Water nature. such as livelihoods diversified to and aquaculture irrigation from mining. showing the cycle, the water explains The diagram overleaf and the links stores water and underground surface atmospheric, has Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall pattern, them. Due to its between surface to recharge which during of the year months a few only stores. water and underground natural regions IV and V, which make up about about up make which and V, IV regions natural in Communities to climatic to be most vulnerable tend land area, 64% of the livelihood and lack of by poverty is aggravated which extremes, impacts of climate feeling the already are regions options. These in the future. hit hardest and will be the variability change and 2 Evaporation Well The Zimbabwean context Confined aquifer Confined Water table Water Runoff The Water Cycle Borehole Wetland Recharge of Recharge confined aquifer confined Rain soil and soil

36 exists in the Water air, soil, rocks and in plants. It evaporates stores, from surface including plants, rivers and dams, becomes stored in clouds. It returns to the earth as rainfall, some of which runs and off surfaces ends up in wetlands, streams, rivers and dams. Some water seeps into the soil the and recharges stores, underground the including aquifers. The Zimbabwean context 37 2 water for Zimbabwe today is around 20 million 20 million around is today Zimbabwe for water available total The form the 15 This is in litres). = 1 million megalitre (1 megalitres underground and dams) and rivers (streams, water of surface rock). (water-storing and aquifers wetlands including stores, is Kariba of which largest dams, the 8,000 has over Zimbabwe 80% of Kariba supplies of 1.8 million megalitres. a capacity with hydropower from of electricity Generation electricity. Zimbabwe’s rainfall means less lower change since by climate will be affected 16 capacity. less generating Kariba and hence in water Underground water Underground water of underground 8 million megalitres that is estimated It 17 This supports 70% and boreholes. wells through is available water Most in rural areas. mainly population, of Zimbabwe’s as livestock, and irrigation for demand is agriculture-related, serve most families which 14. Shallow wells, shown in Figure in the soil. They tend to dry stored on water draw in rural areas, in the of water (the level table the water when use and with out quickly wells However, as the drysoil) lowers season progresses. the soil to flow through is able if rainwater their capacity recover is protected and if the soil in the area table the water to recharge on the other hand, Boreholes, and erosion. compaction to reduce Depending source. water reliable a more and are aquifers tap into by recharged are aquifers type, some underground on the rock dry permanently once become aquifers rainfall; non-rechargeable has been extracted. the water Mining (2%) Domestic (2%)

2 Urban, industrial and institutional

15%

81% The Zimbabwean context

Agriculture

Figure 14: Water use by sector in Zimbabwe Adapted from GoZ 2014 data

Threats to water resources

Reduced ground cover and expansion of human settlements increase surface water run-off, leading tosoil erosion and siltation of water bodies. They also decrease the rate of infiltration, which slows the recharging of underground stores.

Population growth, demand for water from growing economic activity and increased consumption are widening the gap between water supply and demand. Pollution of surface and underground water and inappropriate irrigation methods, which can lead to a damaging build-up of salt in soil,18 reduce the amount of water that can be used and degrade soil quality.

The quality of water for both urban and rural communities has deteriorated due to several factors: population pressure; climate fluctuations; cultivation and construction on watercourses and wetlands; and pollution from agriculture, industry and mining. 38 The Zimbabwean context 39 2 hazards, including diarrhoeal diarrhoeal including hazards, health This has led to increased was the in 2008/2009, which outbreak diseases and a cholera 19 in African history. worst on the effect a negative to have change is predicted Climate example, For water. available of Zimbabwe’s and quality quantity the main reservoir when improves water of Harare the quality flows into the waste that dilutes high rainfall, which receives also have rainfall and water changes in Climate-related the lake. ecosystems: water and functioning of the health for implications flow threshold minimum need a example, for and streams, rivers to survive. organisms their living for A typical wetland system in Zimbabwe with a small stream surrounded on A typical wetland system in Zimbabwe with soil either side by areas of saturated 2 People 20 Zimbabwe has a diverse population, with 67% living in rural areas. The national census of 2013 put the total population at 13,061,239, of which 41% were under the age of 15.21 The total fertility rate is 3.8 children per woman, which is one of the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. The population is predicted to double in about 70 years based on these figures. Life expectancy is 58 years and the average

The Zimbabwean context household size is 4.2 people.

Compared to other countries in the region, Zimbabwe has substantial infrastructure in terms of healthcare, schools and transport networks,22 although they have been run down by the political and economic problems experienced in the past two decades. The country boasts one of the most educated populations in Africa, with an overall literacy rate of 96% (94% for women).23 There is also a vast wealth of local traditional knowledge that has enabled Zimbabwean communities to adapt to a fluctuating climate for centuries.

The range of livelihoods is diverse. The Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC, 2011) conducted a national survey identifying 25 main livelihoods linked to geographical areas. The survey highlights the dependence of Zimbabweans on natural resources as a source of livelihoods. This survey also provides “a foundation for better understanding of the dynamics of change and vulnerability within households”.24

Health

The mainhealth issues in the country are high child mortality and poor maternal health. The 2015 demographichealth survey found that 27% of children under five years were suffering from chronic under-nutrition, or stunting, a drop from 39% in 2010.25 Stunting 40 The Zimbabwean context 41 2 diseases. in Zimbabwe is related to poor dietary diversity, maternal and and maternal dietary poor diversity, to related is Zimbabwe in other and diarrhoeal and practices feeding child immunodeficiency the human diseases are The most prevalent (AIDS), deficiency syndrome immune virus (HIV) and acquired HIV/AIDS infections. and diarrhoeal malaria, tuberculosis in 1997.26 a peak of 27.7% has fallen to 14.7% from prevalence by malaria- infested in areas lives half of the population Over 27 Transmission of malaria is related mosquitoes. transmitting the rainy and rainfall and is highest during to temperatures Manicaland, from come malaria cases and deaths season. Most 28 Central. Mashonaland East and Mashonaland Resilience and vulnerability bred history and turbulent climate have of Zimbabwe The variable developed having adversity, is familiar with that a population Many grandparent-headed households in Zimbabwe already struggle to feed households Many grandparent-headed their dependants both positive and negative strategies for coping with long-term 2 hardship and acute shocks due to a range of factors, including: 29 • The colonial relocation of the majority into marginal reserves that became overpopulated and degraded • The effects of economic sanctions imposed on Rhodesia during the 1960s • The impacts of economic structural adjustment programmes in the 1990s

The Zimbabwean context • The HIV and AIDS pandemic in the 1990s • Recent economic and political instability (2000–present)

This has given rise to a resilient and adaptable people. However, past and present challenges have created vulnerability. The Zimbabwe Poverty Atlas 2015 30 uses a range of statistics related to welfare and inequality to give a detailed overview showing that poverty is widespread in most rural communities. Levels were highest overall in Matabeleland North (85.7%) with “hotspot” districts identified as Nkayi (95.6%), Lupane (92.9%), Gokwe South (90.9%) and Mudzi (90.0%). Prevalence for Harare and Bulawayo was considerably lower at 36.4% and 37.2% respectively. The causes of rural poverty relate in part to adverse climate and environmental conditions that disrupt agriculture, the main livelihood activity.

Urban drift and cross-border migration have extended the range of families’ sources of income, but as seen during the HIV and AIDS epidemic, they have also removed the most economically and physically productive family members from the home, leaving female-, grandparent- and child-headed families to cope with rural hardships. Women, children, the elderly and the disabled are particularly vulnerable to hazards and shocks, especially in rural areas.31 Cultural norms burden women with the responsibility to provide food, fuel and water, a responsibility that will be made increasingly difficult by climate change. 42 The Zimbabwean context 43 2

National GDP growth rate (%)

30 20 10 0 -10 -20

2010 2000

population. This diversity diversity This population.

1990

1980 1970 0

200 400 600 800

1,200 1,000

rainfall (mm) rainfall average National climate change will exacerbate hardship and and hardship will exacerbate change climate that expected is It 32 of Zimbabwe. people among the poverty GDP growth in relation to national average in national GDP growth in relation to national average Figure 15: Variation 1962–2012 rainfall GDP data: www.indexmundi.com/facts/zimbabwe/gdp-growth Department Services Rainfall data: Meteorological Economy 33 climate, amenable thanks to its economy has a diverse Zimbabwe educated highly and resources abundant economy the economy However, capacity. adaptive Zimbabwe’s strengthens on rainfall dependent heavily are in particular and agriculture to the impacts of climate them sensitive make which patterns, has (GDP) domestic product 15 shows how gross change. Figure in the past. rainfall fluctuations with associated been strongly has increased been good, GDP rains have where During years has fallen. GDP years During drought proportionally. Figure 16 shows the contributions to GDP of the major economic 2 sectors. About 60% of the population is employed in agriculture, which contributes about 15% to GDP. Most agriculture is carried out by smallholder farmers, who mostly live in communal farming areas. Mining makes the largest contribution to the economy and is the largest earner of foreign currency, contributing to 50% of exports, although it employs only 5% of the country’s workers. Tourism, which is dependent on the quality

The Zimbabwean context of wilderness areas, including national parks and reserves, is an important contributor of foreign currency earnings and employment.

Other

17%

Tourism Mining 10% 44%

14%

Industry 15%

Agriculture

Figure 16: Contribution to national GDP by sector in Zimbabwe Adapted from GoZ 2014 data

Energy

Most energy for industry, commerce and urban domestic activities comes from electricity, which is supplied by hydroelectric and thermal generation. Transport is mainly by road, fuelled by petrol and diesel. In the rural areas firewood is the main fuel for cooking 44 The Zimbabwean context 45 2 and heating, lighting is provided by kerosene, and food processing processing food and kerosene, by is provided lighting and heating, or diesel. by petrol powered are and irrigation shortages electricity of chronic periods has suffered Zimbabwe in coverage electricity poor with coupled This, years. in recent install to of Zimbabweans numbers has led increasing rural areas, As the generators. or diesel-powered systems or petrol- small solar to firewood turned have people more intensified, shortages have such as tobacco activities and agricultural heating cooking, for are households 37% of urban that found study curing. A recent circumstances 34 The current of energy. as a source using firewood increased sector towards to push the energy opportunities present such options renewable low-carbon, resilient efficiency and more as solar. Impacts of climate change production to set back economic change is likely Climate of the natural degradation will increase It in Zimbabwe. their depend for people so many on which environment and agriculture for availability water will reduce It livelihoods. industry on which depends. of hydroelectricity the generation will be firewood supply that of forests regeneration The natural temperatures extreme change and as rainfall patterns reduced likely are fail, people 35 As crops of wildfires. the spread intensify on natural dependent are that of income to turn to other sources such as brick moulding, artisanal activities including resources, of which adds to the degradation mining and sale of firewood, resources. in context the Zimbabwean at looked have In this chapter we to shocks and capacity and adaptive vulnerability terms of its change. In the next to climate those related particularly hazards change. will examine the impacts of climate chapter we Endnotes

2 1 This section is based on information from Zambuko, C. 2011. “Climate Issues and Facts”. Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department: www.itu.int/ITU-D/emergencytelecoms/ events/Zimbabwe_2011/Climate%20Issues%20and%20Facts-%20Zimbabwe%20-%20Dept%20 of%20Met.pdf, accessed August 2015

2 Meteorological Services Department: http://weather.utande.co.zw/climate/climatechange. htm

3 Davis, R. and Hirji, R. 2014. “Climate Change and Water Resources, Planning, Development and Management”. Issues paper. World Bank and Government of Zimbabwe: http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/23839207/climate-change-water-resources- planning-development-management-zimbabwe, accessed August 2015

4 Moyo, E.N. and Nangombe, S. 2015. “Southern Africa’s Violent Storms: Role of Climate The Zimbabwean context Change”. IUTAM Symposium on the Dynamics of Extreme Events Influenced by Climate Change 2013. Procedia IUTAM 17: 69-78www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S2210983815002497/pdf?md5=d19a37ea855bb478603a34f968b3a464&pid=1-s2.0- S2210983815002497-main.pdf, accessed August 2017

5 Rocha, A, and Simmonds, I. 1997. “Interannual Variability of South-eastern African Summer Rainfall. Part II: Modeling the Impact of Sea-surface Temperatures on Rainfall and Circulation”. International Journal of Climatology 17: 267–290; Manatsa, D., Chingombe, W. and Matarira, C. H. 2008. “The Impact of the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole on Zimbabwe Droughts”. International Journal of Climatology 28: 2011–2029. doi:10.1002/joc.1695

6 Nangombe, S., Madyiwa S. and Wang J. 2016. “Precursor Conditions Related to Zimbabwe’s Summer Droughts”. Theoretical and Applied Climatology DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-1986-4

7 Ibid.

8 Rurinda J., van Wijk, M.T., Mapfumo, P., Descheemaeker, K., Supit, I, and Giller K.E. forthcoming. “Simulating Maize Yield Responses to Climate Change and Adaptive Farm Management Options for Supporting Smallholder Farmers Decisions in Zimbabwe” in Global Change Biology, 21(12)

9 IPCC 2014a. “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report”. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report”. IPCC, Geneva: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/, accessed August 2015 and Moyo, E.M. 2017. Draft DPhil thesis

10 Mutasa M. and Ndebele-Murisa M.R. 2015. “Biodiversity and Human Development in Zimbabwe” in Murisa T. and Chikweche T. eds. Beyond the Crises: Zimbabwe’s Transformation and Prospects for Development. Trust Africa, Dakar, and Weaver Press, Harare

11 Food and Agriculture Organisation 2015. “Global Forest Resources Assessment Country Reports, Zimbabwe, Africa”: www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/da5d758a-af38-45f7-b4ac- 483ebd41782e/, accessed August 2015

12 Mugabe, F. T., Thomas, T. S., Hachigonta, S. and Sibanda, L. 2013 eds. “Zimbabwe” in Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. Research monograph, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC: http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/127792, accessed August 2015; Brown, D., Chanakira, R., Chatiza, K., Dhliwayo, M., Dodman, D., Masiiwa, M., Muchadenyika, D., Mugabe, P. and Zvigadza, S. 2012. “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Zimbabwe”. IIED Climate Change Working Paper 3, October 2012: http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10034IIED.pdf, accessed August 2015

13 Most of the information in this section is from Davis, R. and Hirji, R. 2014. “Climate Change and Water Resources, Planning, Development and Management”. Issues paper. World Bank, Government of Zimbabwe: http://documents.worldbank.org/ curated/en/2014/10/23839207/climate-change-water-resources-planning-development- management-zimbabwe, accessed August 2015

14 For more information, see UN Water: www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml and FAO http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/a2128b09-361c-5468-9d93-2189cc430234/ 46 The Zimbabwean context 47 2 Davis and Hirji 2014 and Hirji Davis Ibid. www.ies. Strategy”: Change Response Climate 2014. “National of Zimbabwe Government 2015 August accessed ac.zw/downloads/draftstrategy.pdf, Soils”: www.fao.org/docrep/r4082e/r4082e08.htm “Salty see FAO. information, more For P. and Urquhart, C., Padgham, J. A., Lennard, Abdrabo, M.A., Essel, O.C., I., Ruppel, Niang, “Regional . Part B: Adaptation, and Vulnerability 2014: Impacts, in Climate Change 2014. “Africa” of the Report II to the Fifth Assessment Group of Working Aspects. Contribution D.J., Dokken, Field, C.B., V.R., Change” (Barros, Panel on Climate Intergovernmental Genova, R.C., Estrada, Y.O., M., Ebi, K.L., Chatterjee, T.E., Bilir, Mach, K.J., M.D., Mastrandrea, and White, eds). L.L. P.R. Mastrandrea, S., MacCracken, A.N., Levy, Kissel, E.S., Girma, B., York:1199-1265 New Cambridge and Press, Cambridge University Change Response Climate the National from in this section is taken information Most 2014 GoZ Strategy, 2012”: www.zimstat.co.zw/Census/CensusResults2012/ Report 2013a “Census ZimStat 2015 August accessed National_Report.pdf, Index http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/ZWE; Report: Development Human UNDP 2017 August accessed : www.indexmundi.com/g/rank.html, Mundii 2011/2012”: Survey Report and Expenditure Consumption Income, 2013b. “Poverty, ZimStat 2015 August accessed www.zimstat.co.zw/dmdocuments/Finance/Poverty2011.pdf, Livelihoods Rural 2011 “Zimbabwe Committee Assessment Vulnerability Zimbabwe 2011” Baseline Profiles https:// Survey 2015, Final Report”: and Health Demographic 2015 “Zimbabwe GoZ 2017 August accessed dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR322/FR322.pdf, 2015: www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/country/documents/ZWE_narrative_ UNAIDS 2017 August accessed report_2015.pdf, USAID: http://photos.state.gov/libraries/zimbabwe/231771/PDFs/PMI%20USAID.pdf, 2017 August accessed USAID: www.pmi.gov/docs/default-source/default-document-library/country-profiles/ zimbabwe_profile.pdf?sfvrsn=28,August 2017 accessed A History and Mlambo, A. 2009 eds. Becoming Zimbabwe: to Raftopoulos, B. details, refer For Harare. Press, 2008. Weaver to Period from the Pre-Colonial 2015”: www.zimstat.co.zw/sites/default/files/img/publications/ Atlas “Poverty ZimStat. 2017 August accessed Accounts/Poverty_Atlas_0.pdf, 2014. S. and Feresu, T. Mufaro, D., Tirivanhu, J., C., Mataruka, Matema, Manjengwa, J., of Environmental and Institute UNICEF Change in Zimbabwe”. and Climate “Children www.unicef.org/zimbabwe/Children_and_Climate_ of Zimbabwe: Studies, University 2015; August accessed Change_in_Zimbabwe_Report_2014.pdf, in Preparedness and Adaptation Change Vulnerability 2010. “Climate T. Chagutah, Africa: Stiftung Southern Böll Heinrich Report, Country Zimbabwe Africa”. Southern August accessed http://za.boell.org/sites/default/files/downloads/HBF_web_Zim_21_2.pdf, 2015 Ibid. Change Response Climate “National from in this section is taken information Most 2015 August accessed www.ies.ac.zw/downloads/draftstrategy.pdf, Strategy”: Manjengwa et al 2014 2011 Zambuko from This section is based on information 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 2 The Zimbabwean context

A typical Zimbabwean landscape

48 3 The impacts of 3 climate change

This chapter was reviewed by Dr Dube with contributions from Shingirai Nangombe, Prof. Mugabe, Elisha Moyo and Dr Ndebele-Murisa The impacts of climate change This chapter looks at the current and future impacts of climate change, first at the global level, then on Africa and finally on Zimbabwe’s natural resources, economy and its people.

Chapter summary

The Earth for the rest of the century 50 Impacts on Africa 58 Impacts on Zimbabwe 61 Climate impacts 61 Impacts on natural resources 66 Impacts on people and the economy 72

49 3 The Earth for the rest of the century 1

The effects of climate change are already being recorded across the globe. Although it is difficult for scientists to determine accurately how the Earth’s systems will respond to more greenhouse emissions and changes in climate, they offer some plausible options on how we may be affected. Advances in science and

The impacts of climate change improvements in computer power have helped scientists develop models that represent the Earth’s climate system. They enable the modelling of past, current and future emissions and their possible effect on the climate.

The impacts of climate change will depend on: • The rate at which concentrations of greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere and our efforts to reduce their emissions • How strongly these increases in emissions affect the atmospheric water and energy budgets in terms of temperature and rainfall and sea level changes, among other key phenomena • Natural climate fluctuations due to phenomena such as volcanic activity, changes in the Sun’s intensity and changes in ocean circulation patterns 2

The measures that we put in place to adapt to climate change will significantly influence how we are affected. Climate scientists now know that even if greenhouse gas emissions are stopped completely, many of the harmful effects of climate change will persist for decades due to the complex nature of the Earth’s natural systems.3 An analysis of the proposed national climate actions put forward by many governments as part of the Paris climate change agreement supports this. 50 The impacts of climate change 51 3 4 climate change. climate projects that by that 5 projects report of the IPCC, issued in 2014, The latest is very global temperature the end of the century the average The Paris levels. pre-industrial least 2°C above to rise by at likely in 2016 (see was signed by 195 countries that agreement climate below to well increases global temperature chapter 7) aims to keep government based on current projections, recent 2°C. However, an to reach the Earth is on track and action, show that pledges on the 6 Some areas rise of 3.6°C by the end of the century. average while warming of magnitude higher a have to projected are planet others will cool. Temperature changes and extremes Temperature emissions scenarios and emissions Climate models models to computer powerful several developed have Scientists The the world. across will change the climate how help project equations physics, of atmospheric on knowledge models draw routinely been have that data of motion and meteorological over in most countries departments by meteorological collected real, to match adjusted are projections computer a long time. The and accuracy. their power observed changes to increase using imagined scenarios been developed The models have emissions are expected to change and expected to change gas emissions are of how greenhouse change, to climate react could how societies and economies and dynamics population new policies, through instance for Each emission storyline represents advancements. technological social, economic, demographic, different with future a possible developments. and environmental technological, impacts the globe where across the areas 17 highlights Figure the this map that can be seen from It to be most severe. likely are of impacts worst the experience to likely are tropics Crisis belt 3 The impacts of climate change Increased flooding and rising sea levels Increased drought to safe drinking water because of increasing poor access crisis through Water than the global mean to be −% higher in the tropics Sea level rise is likely Tropic of Cancer Tropic of Capricorn Tropic Equator

Figure 17: The global impacts of climate change Canali 2013 Adapted from 52 belt Crisis The impacts of climate change 53 3 What does a rise of 2°C or 3°C mean? a rise of 2°C or What does sound like does not degrees change of a few A temperature between the difference detect can hardly Our bodies much. to understand why us for can seem hard 1°C, so it 0.5°C and such a difference. make would degrees three even or two to changes in climate. the Earth is very sensitive However, in changes degree-by-degree an overview of what For see Six planet, and the humans for will mean temperature www. at Lynas, by Mark Planet on a Hotter Future Our Degrees: or www.youtube.com/ youtube.com/watch?v=R_pb1G2wIoA summary. a for watch?v=7T9IjSEqT74 Rainfall changes and water availability Rainfall dryer such as southern that regions foresee The IPCC reports As explained in chapter 1, the rise in temperatures will have will have in chapter 1, the rise in temperatures As explained and as sea levels as well patterns major impacts on global weather to be most likely systems. The impacts are other natural many America. in Africa, Asia and South especially in the tropics, severe a strong foresee States and the United Studies on China, Europe patterns shifts in seasonal temperature of permanent likelihood by 2050.7 levels to unprecedented region as a has been identified the Mediterranean example, For heat including extremes, heat to prone will be particularly that in the rural USA, the Mediterranean occurring waves 8 Heat waves. of outbreaks to widespread been linked have and Australia vegetation, of natural areas large which decimate wildfires that is likely damage. It environmental compounded causing 9 common. more will become these events Africa are likely to become dryer and that wet regions along the 3 equator are likely to become wetter in the course of this century. Rainfall is likely to increase in some high- and mid-latitude areas: the Arctic and Antarctic, northern Europe, northern Asia, northern USA and Canada, the southern parts of South America and southern Australasia, East Africa and other areas close to the equator. Rainfall is likely to decrease in the mid-latitude dry regions: southern Europe, parts of Asia, Australasia, North and South America and the sub-tropics, including southern Africa. The impacts of climate change

With a 2°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels we can expect a 30% reduction in water availability in many sub-tropical regions, including the Mediterranean, southern Africa, central and southern South America and south Australia.10 Water scarcity in the Mediterranean, North Africa and the Middle East is likely to exacerbate political instability and conflicts in these regions.11

Melting ice and sea levels

As the Earth warms, snow and ice on mountains will continue to melt rapidly. Since these are important stores of water, many communities which rely on them in different parts of the world, particularly in Asia and north and south America, will suffer water shortages. The ice caps at the poles will also continue to melt rapidly, accelerating the rise of sea levels. In fact, recent studies show that past and current sea level rises are much faster than projected by climate models.12

Rising sea levels will threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in coastal areas across the world, submerging buildings and crops. According to the IPCC, sea levels could rise by between 26 cm and 55 cm by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, but could increase by between 45 cm and

54 The impacts of climate change 55 3 13 An of increase. rate current the at continue if emissions 82 cm in the salt introduce sea levels rising is that problem additional renders soils and of the raises the saltiness soils, which coastal mangroves. like ecosystems supporting important for them unfit to continue and could be up by 98 cm could By 2100 sea levels stopped. gas emissions are if greenhouse even centuries rise for in sea levels a lot, a small rise this does not sound like Although human many which on life on aquatic effect a huge can have By the end of the century depend. 147 between communities on land that live currently who people million and 216 million 14 Several flooded will be displaced. regularly or will be under water 15 millions of hectares the globe will be affected, across major cities in the states land will be lost and some island of agricultural 16 will be submerged. Pacific and the Maldives will change the oceans into fresh water of influx The growing system of the oceans the circulation threaten and density water distribution heat for is critical which circulation), (thermohaline scenario the Earth. Some studies suggest a worst-case across in down, resulting shut could circulation the thermohaline where on the accumulation and heat the poles around the rapid cooling equator. Changes in the oceans to due of the oceans and the acidification Rising temperatures extinctions, will cause in the water the extra carbon dissolved which millions of global fisheries on catches the reducing severely will be particularly and jobs. The effects food depend for of people reefs, coral and islands where regions coastal in tropical evident well as tourism, will as fish production support commercial which 17 destroyed. be almost completely 3 Impacts on plants and animals It is projected that by 2050 one quarter of Earth’s species are at risk of extinction if global warming continues.18 In the past decade scientists have observed some animals and plant species – those that inhabit cooler climates – occurring in colder areas closer to the north and south poles or in higher altitudes in the Alps, in Queensland, Australia, and in Costa Rica. Fish populations in the North Sea have been observed moving their habitats northwards.19

The impacts of climate change Plants are particularly vulnerable as they are slow to migrate to new areas in order to escape warming and drying. Many animals will lose their habitats and die as vegetation patterns change and water becomes scarce. Polar bears, sea turtles, whales, pandas, orang-utans, elephants and tigers are particularly under threat from climate change.20 Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and the zika and chikungunya viruses may spread more rapidly and more widely. Invasive alien species may also be a common future as the climate changes.

Impacts on human communities

In 2006 Sir Nicholas Stern, a leading economic adviser to the UK government, produced a landmark report on the economics of climate change.21 Although he was criticised by some as being alarmist, many take the report as a serious appraisal of the economic and development impacts of global climate change. The report was one of the first to catalogue the huge economic costs of climate change and to highlight that the benefits of swift action substantially outweigh the costs of switching to a low- carbon path. The report estimates that the global economy would eventually benefit by $2.5 trillion per year from switching to a low- carbon economy.

As things stand, climate change is likely to cause immense harm. 56 The impacts of climate change 57 3 – will Water resources will become severely stressed and competition for for and competition stressed severely will become resources Water and socio- regions among geographical increase will likely water and industry. as domestic, agriculture sectors such economic Production threatened. to be severely is likely security Global food ­ and wheat soy – maize, rice, staples of all of the major food rising temperatures, be disrupted by changing rainfall patterns, disease infestations, pest and shortages and spreading water regions 22 In some high-latitude regions. in tropical particularly 23 increase. may yields of these crops change climate that (AR5) projects IPCC report recent The most among low- particularly problems, health will exacerbate built-up 24 Because countries. in developing communities income added will be at hotter, urban communities are environments and scarcity water waves, such as heat events extreme risk from events weather and extreme pressures resource flooding. Other the and escalate migration increased to bring about likely are conflicts. of violent threat species will be threatened by wildlife species will be threatenedclimate change Many of Zimbabwe’s iconic 3 Impacts on Africa 25 Africa is predicted to be the continent that will be worst affected by climate change because much of it lies between the tropics and because of its fragile economies and vulnerable populations. However, climate change will have a modest effect overall in comparison to Africa’s other problems, notably the increasingly severe stresses on water resources brought about by urbanisation, the growth in populations and agriculture and land-use change,

The impacts of climate change according to the most recent IPCC report.26 This reinforces the idea that Africa needs to address development, adaptation and resource management issues urgently in preparation not just for climate change but also for a generally hazardous future.

The IPCC projects that average temperatures across most of Africa will increase more quickly than the global average: by the end of the century much of Africa could become 3°C to 6°C hotter and rainfall is likely to decline over North Africa and the south- western parts of South Africa. The effects of climate change will not be uniform. East Africa will be worst affected by flooding, West Africa will suffer a major decline in food production and southern Africa will be subjected to water shortages, tropical cyclones and drought.27 Figure 18 summarises the major shake- ups foreseen in Africa as a result of climate change.

Summarising the data from several recent reports,28 the major risks for Africa are seen as: • A reduction in annual rainfall and groundwater recharge, except in East Africa where rainfall will increase • A shift in rainy seasons and more frequent dry periods • More frequent climate hazards – droughts, heat waves, wildfires, storms, tropical cyclones, intense rain and floods – causing damage to natural systems, crops, transport networks and human settlements 58 The impacts of climate change 59 3 Areas projected projected Areas to experience crop increased failures Projected expansion of deserts Projected Possible migration flows Possible migration Figure 18: The expected impacts of climate change on Africa Adapted from Canali 2013 Adapted from Desertification Sea level rise availability freshwater Reduced Cyclones erosion Coastal forest loss of Deforestation, quality, degradation of woodlands bleaching Coral of malaria Spread Impacts on food security 3 The impacts of climate change

Rural woman and children are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

• Threats to soil fertility from erosion and rising temperatures. A 4°C warming could result in crop failures occurring as often as every two years 29 • Rising sea levels threatening coastal communities, especially in Mozambique and Nigeria where the greatest number of people will be affected in sub-Saharan Africa 30 • Accelerated expansion of deserts, especially in Namibia and Botswana and southern Zimbabwe • Increase in ocean acidity, resulting in degradation of coral reefs and damage to fisheries • Reduced quantity and quality of water available for domestic and economic activities. Groundwater recharge rates have been projected to decline by 30–70 % in the western parts of southern Africa and to increase by around 30% in some parts of East and south-eastern Africa 31 • Agriculture affected by heat and water stress and shortened growing seasons. Declines in crop yields of 27–32% for maize, sorghum, millet and groundnuts for a warming by 2050 of 60 The impacts of climate change 61 3 33 34 32 hazards and their to hazards and exposure – their sensitivity levels pre-industrial 2°C above about grazing grasslands for and shrinking Shifts in ecosystems animals of wildlife and destruction species extinction Accelerated services as such ecosystem important depleting habitats, damaging and water, soil and clean of fertile the provision tourism and and diseases of crops pest infestations Spreading fever such as Rift Valley livestock weather extreme from injuries health: Harm to human and lead activities outdoor can limit that stress heat events; diseases such as and sanitation-related hygiene- to death; and trachoma; cholera conjunctivitis, scabies, diarrhoea, of malaria distribution the increase and an malnutrition; migration and displacement of human of human and displacement in migration An upsurge and floods, rising sea levels to drought, due populations as social 18), as well (see Figure events other extreme resources dwindling for compete as people conflicts • • • • • adaptive capacity – will determine the eventual impacts of – will determine the eventual capacity adaptive in context of the Zimbabwean our appraisal change. From climate to Zimbabwe’s factors contributing can summarise chapter 1 we 1). (Table capacity and adaptive vulnerability Climate impacts it makes in rainfall variability increase The observed and projected water who depend on rainfall and for people difficult increasingly vulnerability of natural and human and human of natural As noted in chapter 2, the vulnerability systems ­ Impacts on Zimbabwe resources – including those involved with agriculture, tourism 3 and industry – to plan their activities. Communities that have been made vulnerable by economic hardship and disease will find it even harder to cope let alone recover from climate-induced shocks and losses. Figure 19 presents a generalised view of how climate change could impact on crop yields in Zimbabwe, but as noted in the previous section, the climate models do not give a clear picture of what the future holds for our country.

The impacts of climate change Table 1: Factors contributing to Zimbabwe’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change.

Factors contributing to vulnerability Adaptive capacity success factors

• The climate of Zimbabwe is already • Abundant natural resources variable in terms of rainfall, mid- • Basic infrastructure – roads, season dry spells and extremes settlements and health and • Dependence of a large proportion of educational facilities the population on rain-fed agriculture • Diverse economy for food security and livelihoods • High literacy levels • Energy production partly dependent • Relatively low fertility rate so the on hydroelectricity, which is population is growing gradually vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations • Extensive indigenous knowledge in • Much of industry is climate-sensitive some communities relating to survival – industrial processes depend on in harsh environmental conditions labour and raw materials from rain- (although this is being lost through fed agriculture urban drift) • Industry and agriculture are not highly • Availability of indigenous crops that mechanised and depend largely on are drought-resilient and tolerant to human labour that can succumb to high temperatures (although these heat, illness and many other factors are not favoured by the population) relating to climate change • High levels of social capital and strong • Degradation of natural resources (soil, social networks water, vegetation and wildlife) due to poor land management • High concentration of the population living in rural areas where climate impacts will be strongest • Widespread poverty, malnutrition and health problems in some districts • Physical and economic water scarcity in parts of the country • Lack of means to put adaptation plans and disaster risk reduction measures into practice (including financial resources, technologies, governance and institutional frameworks)

62 The impacts of climate change 63 3 38

36 37 Manicaland Central East Masvingo Harare Mashonaland Mashonaland West Midlands Mashonaland South , it is likely that by 2050 and until by 2050 and until that is likely 35, it Greater than % Greater or drylands Matabeleland Bulawayo Matabeleland North Delayed onset and early ending of the rainy season ending of the rainy onset and early Delayed drymid-season and longer periods frequent More recharge groundwater Reduced the country across rainfall distribution Erratic years recur in successive may and floods that droughts More century the of end the by 3°C–6°C, of increase temperature A rainfall of between 5% and 18%, 5% and rainfall of between in total annual A decrease and west in the south the highest decline seen with A possible increase in rainfall in the north and east increase A possible  or larger  to   to  than  more • • • • • • • • Projected impact of climate of climate impact Projected productivity, cereal change on on ,  % change and A . Red scenario IPCC will experience orange areas declining dramatically yields. According to several studies to several According will be: the end of the century there Figure 19: A generalised view of some likely impacts of climate change on crop Figure 19: A generalised yields in Zimbabwe Fischer (2005) adapted from Source: 3 Temperature changes Since 1900 average annual surface temperature across Zimbabwe has increased by 0.4°C. Studies and farmers’ perceptions acknowledge that there are now more hot days and fewer cold days than in the past. The temperature increase has been most pronounced during the dry season. The five warmest years on record have occurred since 1987.39 Figure 20 shows likely temperature changes across southern Africa using two different

The impacts of climate change climate model scenarios: one which can be thought of as best case (urgent action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and global warming) and a worst-case scenario (humanity continues on a business-as-usual pathway).

tove CCAMens RCP. tove CCAMens RCP.

    .  .

Figure 20: Likely changes in temperature across Southern Africa Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR RCP8.5 Scenario, means of six global models down-scaled to ~15 km using CCAM

Impacts on rainfall

The total amount of rain received during a typical rainy season has fallen by about 5% since 1900. There is evidence of greater intra- and inter-seasonal rainfall variability as well as unpredictability 64 The impacts of climate change 65 3 in temporal and spatial distribution. While distribution. in temporal and spatial the observed unchanged, largely rainfall total remains seasonal cumulative season the rainy during been recorded have drymore days and floods have rain episodes. Droughts heavy few with combined 1990, often occurring since in frequency increased consequently a drought following year immediately a flood back to back with areas affecting numerous, more become storms have Violent year. property known and destroying not previously storms were where every40 year. communities in many and lives from differs rainfall in Zimbabwe change on of climate The effect range the projected is why which model to the next, one climate while 41 But 5% and 18% is so large. of rainfall decline of between to likely are change in rainfall seems small, there the aggregate at different areas in rainfall in different fluctuations be greater and temporal of spatial each other because cancel times, which averaging. Crop pests are likely to become more of a problem for farmers as for farmers pests are likely to become more of a problem Crop rise temperatures These changes are likely to lead to 3 • Reduced water supply for domestic and agriculture use from both surface and groundwater sources • The expansion of natural region V, the shrinking of natural region I and shifts in the areas covered by natural regions III and IV (see Figure 22 for a comparison between the existing and proposed new natural regions) 42 • Degradation of natural resources, especially soil, water, natural vegetation, crops and livestock, and extinction of

The impacts of climate change wildlife species • Reduced food security because of the impacts on agriculture, possibly leading to increased undernutrition, particularly in children • Greater incidence of diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria and cholera due to reduced water quality, higher temperatures and increased flooding

Figure 21 shows projected rainfall changes under four downscaled climate models. The ECHAM5 model shows a significant decrease in annual precipitation – between -50 mm and 200 mm – over most of the country; CSIRO-MK3 shows decreased annual precipitation only in the south; CNRM-CM3 and MIROC3.2 show annual precipitation increasing in the extreme north and little change in the rest of the country.

Impacts on natural resources

As mentioned in chapter 1, Zimbabweans depend heavily on ecosystem services that provide, among other things, clean water, fertile soils, timber and fuelwood and nutritious wild foods. These services are already under pressure from overexploitation and poor resource management, and will therefore come under greater stress during climate change.

66 The impacts of climate change 67 3 + to + + to +  to +  to   to  Impacts on plants and animals animal and other plant, extinctions of many Losses and even as parts of the country dry indicated species are up and become resources, on dwindling struggle to survive hotter. As wildlife calculations based on downscaled climate data; available at IFPRI 43 calculations based on downscaled climate data; Source: http://ccafs-climate.org/ Notes: All maps assume the A1B scenario using different models. Notes: All maps assume the A1B scenario general circulation model Clockwise, from top left: the CNRM-CM3 medium-resolution GCM; and GCM; MIROC3.2 (GCM); CSIRO-MK3 the ECHAM5 GCM. precipitation (mm/annum) for Figure 21: Projected changes in mean annual A1B scenario Zimbabwe between 2000 and 2050 using the they are likely to encroach increasingly on human settlements, 3 threatening people, livestock and crops. Soils are likely to become degraded as vegetation loss and erosion are exacerbated by changing rainfall patterns, droughts, floods and wildfires. This will in turn push species of vegetation to the brink and beyond. As climate change reduces food security and disrupts agricultural livelihoods, people will also likely encroach into protected and gazetted forests, parks and wetlands, intensifying human-wildlife conflicts and accelerating the degradation of forests, land and

The impacts of climate change water resources.

Water resources

Most at threat will be water resources. The World Bank in partnership with the government of Zimbabwe has produced a report 44 predicting that climate change is likely to cause annual rainfall to decrease in all catchments except Mazowe and Manyame. The largest decline, it states, will be in the Runde and Mzingwane catchments where average rainfall could decline by between 12% and 16% by 2050.45 The report predicts that climate change will also reduce the recharge rates of wetlands and aquifers.

There will be less water for irrigation, energy generation for mining, manufacturing and commerce, tourism and human health. Even in a best-case scenario, states the World Bank report, there is likely to be a 38% decline in national per capita water availability by 2050.46 Urban and rural communities in the south and west could be seriously affected by water stress. The report notes that climate change will cause increasing dependence on groundwater sources, which will need better management.

68 The impacts of climate change 69 3 Wild fruit harvesting Wild fruit started) the rains have Dry (before planting cultivation Streambank agriculture Conservation small grains drought-tolerant Planting techniques and processing storage food Traditional building designs, temporary flood-proof Traditional cropping and dual-season migration can be used effectively strategies Indigenous adaptation the through strategies conventional with in conjunction on more members. For of local community participation see chapter 5. adaptation, • • • • • • • • Source: Chanza 2015 Source: climate change in Muzarabani change with climate Coping study 1: Case northern a district on Zimbabwe’s In hot, dry Muzarabani, common, and floods are droughts Mozambique, with border is in the area the climate that say members and community by punctuated seasons shorter growing with drier becoming wetlands ponds and dry streams, mid-season spells. Rivers, Locals drying increasing. are are up and pest populations of of the behaviour their study noted changes through have of pattern ) and the flowering (mashuramurove migratory birds and floods. droughts they use to predict that trees certain strategies adaptive and long-term practices coping Short-term being adopted. These are based on indigenous knowledge nets such as “the chief’ssocial safety include granary” (zunde to a grain store contributes the community ) whereby ramambo In addition, times of hardship. families during to help needy work. members carry nhimbe, or collective out community measures: Drought-coping Flood-coping measures: Old map Mashonaland 3 Central Mashonaland West

Harare

Mashonaland East

Matabeleland North Midlands Manicaland

Bulawayo

The impacts of climate change Region V Masvingo Region IV Matabeleland Region III South Region IIB Region IIA Region I

New map Mashonaland Central Mashonaland West

Harare

Mashonaland East

Matabeleland North Midlands Manicaland

Bulawayo

Masvingo Region Matabeleland Region  South Region  Region  Region 

Figure 22: Comparing the old map of the natural regions of Zimbabwe with a new map based on changes related to soils and climate Source: Mugandani et al 2012 70 The impacts of climate change 71 3 Redrawing the natural regions felt made itself has already rise in temperature A one degree led to the studies and observations have Various in Zimbabwe. mapped to were which regions, the natural that conclusion in view of and land use, need revision, guide farming activities among other the observed changes in rainfall and temperature that study a recent from 22 shows the results factors. Figure into be modified to take regions the natural that recommends change by climate about been brought have changes that account the of the maps shows how A comparison practices. and land-use The changed. have regions of the natural boundaries and the areas 2. shown in Table changes are percentage Collecting water from dry river beds is likely to become more common as Collecting rivers dry up Table 2: Percentage changes in area under old and new maps of the natural 3 regions of Zimbabwe

Natural region Old map (% area) New map (% area)

1 1.8 4

2 15 7

3 18.37 16.1

4 37.8 39.9

The impacts of climate change 5 26.7 32.5

Impacts on people and the economy 47

The disruption to the economy is most likely to be seen in agriculture, industry and tourism. Human health and livelihoods are also under threat.

Agriculture

Zimbabwe’s farming systems are already insecure as they depend mainly on seasonal rainfall. The dry areas of Zimbabwe experience droughts in three of every five years and droughts will likely increase due to climate change.48 Poor land-use practices in the form of inadequate soil and water management, reduced biodiversity and unsuitable crops have led to degradation of the resource base on which agriculture depends. Climate change will hasten the degradation and exacerbate food insecurity, which is already prevalent.

It is predicted that rising temperatures will lead to a greater incidence of heat stress and spreading infestations of pests and outbreaks of diseases. This will reduce productivity ofcrops and livestock and drive up expenditure on pesticides, herbicides 72 The impacts of climate change 73 3 and notes that sorghum yields could also decline. yields could sorghum 50 and notes that and veterinary drugs. Sorghum is sensitive to extreme heat, heat, extreme to sensitive is and veterinary drugs. Sorghum 30°C. High above temperatures to particularly as is maize, and storage content also lessen the nutrient temperatures and obliging soil fertility to reduced of the soil, leading capacity on fertilisers. spend more farmers to Whileappear to be Zimbabwe over mean changes in climate the and intra-seasonal inter- in significant minor, they will result to be likely are shifts in rainfall. There as spatial as well variations of the season, and the onset end of the rainy shifts in the start and 49 This will and six weeks. four by between be delayed rains may the length of the harvesting and dates, mean changes in planting farmers that and livestock of crops season and the types growing to adopt. forced are strain and greater for irrigation demand will be increased There because and livestock to support crops resources on groundwater is water where in areas especially rainfall will be inadequate, and of poor quality. scarce already of changes in the quality from will suffer and wildlife Livestock and in rainfall, higher temperatures to changes grazing land due Changes in rainfall and lack of wildfires. likelihood the increased Dairy farming may availability. fodder will reduce residues of crop diseases among herds. shortages and of water decline in the face will shift and Wheat, areas growing horticultural maize and The IPCC hit. hard will be particularly decline. Maize yields could maize in southern for 18% and 30% yield loses of between predicts Africa by 2050 to shrink by 2080. projected maize are growing for suitable Areas less will become and west the south that predicts One study the north, while and maize cultivation, sorghum for suitable 51 and cotton. maize, sorghum will favour and eastern areas central Crops such as groundnuts, roundnuts and cassava may benefit 3 from increased CO2 levels,52 while areas suitable for growing sorghum and cotton are likely to increase by 2080.53

Pests and diseases

Climate change poses threats to crops and livestock in the form of pests, diseases and invasive weeds encouraged by increasing average temperatures, warmer winter minimum temperatures,

The impacts of climate change changes in precipitation patterns and water shortages.

One study suggests that the habitat of the African coffee white stem borer, Monochamus leuconotus – an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe – will expand by up to 50% due to reductions in rainfall.54 The incidence of smut disease, which attacks sugarcane, maize, sorghum and other grains, is likely to spread in the hotter weather. Longer dry spells are likely to exacerbate the symptoms of ratoon stunting diseases which decimate sugarcane in the south-eastern Lowveld.55

The fall armyworm Spodoptera( frugiperda), a caterpillar native to north and south America with a tendency to maraud in vast numbers, was first detected in Nigeria in 2016. Its presence has been confirmed in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland, Togo and Uganda, presenting a serious threat to food security. Up to 130 000 ha of maize were infested during the 2016/17 season in Zimbabwe. The pest can cause crop losses of more than 70%.

Under climate change it can be expected that in Zimbabwe: 56 • the prevalence of crop pests will change • invasions by new pests will increase • major pest outbreaks will increase • the risk of pesticide residues in food will increase 74 The impacts of climate change 75 3 crops and area cultivated, along with fauna, will fauna, along with cultivated, and area The type of crops pest prevalence change, affecting leading to new and untested will increase, failures Crop the risk of new pest will increase which trade pathways, entry leading will increase, pesticide resistance use and Pesticide risks safety food efficacy and to reduced • • • climate climate with associated by outcomes will be driven These events namely: weather, change and extreme Tourism under already are parks and national areas wildlife Zimbabwe’s poor fires, changes, veld land-use pressure, population from threat parks national of its and poaching. Most management resource change. Wildlife to climate most susceptible are that in areas are Urban communities will also be negatively impacted is the predominant drawcard, but the animal species that attract 3 tourists require the right habitat, enough food and sufficient water. Habitat loss, lack of grazing, pest infestations, diseases and water shortages are likely to reduce the populations of many animal species and threaten the survival of others, particularly elephants. Loss of plant and animal species are likely to deter visitors, reducing income from an important economic sector.

Industry The impacts of climate change

Most industrial activities depend on regular supplies of water and electricity, which are disrupted by climate change. Zimbabwe’s industry is dependent on human labour and productivity is likely to be affected as climate change takes its toll on human health. Higher temperatures also increase the need for refrigeration and air conditioning. Moreover, most industry relies on agricultural raw materials which are climate-sensitive.

Vulnerable people

Climate change will test the resilience of the Zimbabwean people. Those in rural areas, especially children, women and the disabled among the rural poor, will bear the brunt of the changes. Traditionally, Zimbabwean women, assisted by children, are responsible for the provision of food, water and cooking fuel. They also do most of the work in agriculture. The impacts of climate change will mean more work and greater hardship for women and children 57 as they will have to walk further to collect water and firewood and encounter increasing adversity in food production. Clean water and fuel for cooking will become more scarce, affecting household hygiene and nutrition and undermining the health of pregnant and breastfeeding women and their children. Men will be more likely to leave their family farms in search of work in cities or in other countries, thus adding to the burden 76 The impacts of climate change 77 3 on women left behind. Women and children may be exposed to be exposed may and children Women left behind. on women abuse. and physical emotional than others less mobile are and the disabled the elderly Children, and the Children floods andwildfires. risk from at and more stress, of heat to the effects vulnerable also more are elderly shortages. disease and food Human health to likely rainfall are reduced flooding and Higher temperatures, to Respiratory due illnesses problems. health human increase with increase fires, veld from instance for and smoke, pollution rising temperatures. diseases and flooding raise the risk of Lack of clean water diarrhoea, notably and sanitation, poor hygiene with associated a problem already are and bilharzia, all of which cholera typhoid, common diseases such of less 58 The incidence in Zimbabwe. Warmer to increase. likely and dysentery are as guinea worm 59 Food of meningitis. the spread increase could temperatures as the rise in frequently more occur to poisoning is likely foods. of perishable shortens the shelf life temperatures malaria. risk from at is already of Zimbabwe Half the population by Ebi et al (2005) using of a study 23 shows the results Figure of malaria the expansion of areas to project modelling predictive change. By 2050 of climate transmission under the influence at by the disease. The map be affected most of the country could in 2000. The orange of malarial areas left shows the distribution favour that high temperatures with parts show areas red and dark blue, The mosquitoes. of malaria-transmitting the occurrence malaria of low or non-existent and pink parts depict areas purple of spread shows the predicted at right transmission. The map malaria transmission by 2050 driven by rises in temperature 3 across the country.

People living with HIV or who are undernourished will be particularly susceptible to the increased spread of malaria and other diseases as climate change takes effect.

   The impacts of climate change

 No data

Figure 23: Changes in malaria transmission areas of Zimbabwe with projected temperature increases (using an average emissions scenario) due to climate change Adapted from Ebi et al 2005

Urban communities

Towns and cities, being built-up and with less vegetation, are more likely than rural settlements to experience heat waves, with greater demand for air conditioning, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Air quality is likely to deteriorate, leading to more respiratory illnesses.60 Cities will be more prone to flooding, particularly those with residential suburbs built on wetlands, like Harare. 78 The impacts of climate change 79 3 mitigation action of wetlands mitigation The flood When provide wetlands state, in their natural left to function to seep into water allowing excess control, flood natural The stores. water underground and recharge the ground on and shopping centres expansion of residential increasing reduces and capacity this flood-control destroys to wetlands also diminishes the It reservoirs. of underground the recharge reducing thus reservoirs, surface into flow of water gradual local for is important it these reasons For security. water Environmental the with to work institutions government Zimbabwe’s and conserve Agency to protect Management wetlands. Urban communities are inordinately dependent on the reliable the reliable on dependent inordinately are communities Urban centralised from and electricity as water such delivery of utilities When of such providers. the provision change puts climate helpless be left more could urban dwellers under strain, utilities and to dig wells least able at are who than their rural counterparts cooking. for firewood fetch are alike urban and rural households for standards Living change. of climate expected to decline under the impact remittances reduce by urban families may experienced Hardships in rural to drought due failures crop to their rural kin. Similarly, households. among urban security undermine food may areas Migration and conflicts and migration in cross-border to be an upsurge is likely There increasingly Africa become in southern urban drift as populations events climate shortages, extreme water by drought, displaced of could mean migration 61 This resources. over and conflicts “climate refugees” into and out of Zimbabwe at different times. 3 Urbanisation is likely to accelerate, with more people living in urban than rural areas by 2030. The growth of informal settlements with inadequate housing and poor sanitation will likely lead to new health hazards and drive up the crime rate, besides other social problems. Conflicts could occur in both urban and rural contexts as a result of competition for dwindling resources and other climate-related factors.62

The impacts of climate change The adverse consequences of climate change outlined in this chapter can be addressed in two ways. First, we should take measures to help Zimbabweans adapt, which will mean learning to live with warmer temperatures, unreliable rainfall, increasing extremes and declining availability of water. Some of these measures are discussed in chapter 5. Second, we can work together as a global community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Some mitigation measures for Zimbabwe are discussed in chapter 6. Before we look at those issues, chapter 4 examines the policy and governance measures that are being put in place to address climate change.

80 The impacts of climate change 81 3 Most of the information in this section is taken from IPCC 2014a. “Climate Change 2014: IPCC 2014a. “Climate from this section is taken in of the information Most II and III to the Fifth Assessment I, Groups of Working Contribution Report”. Synthesis 2015 August accessed www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/, IPCC, Geneva: Report, www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html Agency: Protection Environmental IPCC 2014a temperature to different lead scenarios of how these different get an impression To report of the IPCC: www. assessment fourth in the SPM5 by 2100, view figure increases ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-5.html see https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/ a useful summary, For Bit.ly/2snPkaK Action Tracker. Climate of Global Model Evidence “Observational and M. 2011. and Scherer, N.S. Diffenbaugh, Climatic 20th and 21st Centuries”. in the Heat Unprecedented of Permanent, Emergence 10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y Change 107:615–624. DOI and Regional Events: 2012. “Global Changes in Extreme S. and Seneviratne, B. Orlowsky, 110:669–696. doi 10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9 Climatic Change Seasonal Dimension”. the around Fires Forest Change Is Increasing Climate 2017. “How Brandlin, A.S. www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-is-increasing-forest-fires-around-the- World”: world/a-19465490 A., Rogelj, M., Golly, Perrette, J., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, Lissner, T.K., Schleussner, C.F., M. 2016. and Schaeffer, W., M., Hare, Frieler, K., Mengel, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., Warming: The Case of 1.5 to Global Limits Policy-relevant for Impacts Climate “Differential 2017 July Dynamics 7: 327–351, accessed °C and 2 °C”. Earth System Ibid. Harig, B., Legresy, D., King, M.A., Monselesan, C.S., Watson, J., Chen, X., Zhang, X., Church, during 1993–2014”. Nature Rise Mean Sea-level of Global Rate C. 2017. “The Increasing www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/ Climate Change 7:492–495. doi:10.1038/nclimate3325: 2017 August accessed n7/full/nclimate3325.html, 2014. “The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment (CDKN) Network Knowledge and Development Climate http:// Network: Knowledge and Development Climate What’s Africa”. Report: for in it 2015 August accessed cdkn.org/resource/highlights-africa-ar5/, Rise”: https:// Sea-level Risk from at Most Countries 2014. “20 S. and Kulp, B. Strauss, weather.com/science/environment/news/20-countries-most-risk-sea-level-rise-20140924 in the USA, see www. major cities affect striking visual images of how this could Ibid. For takepart.com/article/2015/07/15/what-sea-level-rise-looks-america-coast Change Impacts: Pacific Islands”: www.ifad.org/ n.d. “Climate IFAD documents/10180/9054c140-a03c-4c6e-ae9e-ab9d7972dd19 Ibid. www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/n6970/abs/nature02121.html wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/ species, visit on threatened information more For aboutcc/problems/impacts/species/ Ibid. Endnotes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Stern, N. 2006. “The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change”: http:// webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index. htm

3 22 IPCC 2014a. “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report”. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report IPCC, Geneva: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/, accessed August 2015:15

23 Schleussner et al 2016

24 IPCC 2014a:15; CDKN 2014:20

25 For a comprehensive summary of the main impacts on Africa, see ”Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of Chapter 22: Africa. IPCC, 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Final Draft”: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf, accessed August 2015 and CDKN 2014

26 IPCC 2014b:1217 The impacts of climate change 27 Serdeczny et al 2016

28 IPCC 2014b; Davis and Hirji 2014; Lesolle, D. 2012. “SADC Policy Paper on Climate Change: Assessing the Policy Options for SADC Member States”: www.sadc.int/files/9113/6724/7724/ SADC_Policy_Paper_Climate_Change_EN_1.pdf, accessed August 2015; Shanahan M., Shubert, W., Scherer, C., Corcoran, T., Banda F. 2013. Climate Change in Africa: A Guidebook for Journalists. UNESCO: www.unesco.org/new/en/communication-and- information/resources/publications-and-communication-materials/publications/full-list/ climate-change-in-africa-a-guidebook-for-journalists/, accessed August 2015; Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M. and Reinhardt, J. 2016. “Climate Change Impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from Physical Changes to Their Social Repercussions”.Regional Environmental Change. doi 10.1007/ s10113-015-0910-2

29 New, M., Liverman, D., Schroeder, H. and Anderson, K. 2011. “Four Degrees and Beyond: the Potential for a Global Temperature Increase of Four Degrees and Its Implications”. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:6–19. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0303

30 Serdeczny et al 2016

31 Ibid.

32 Ibid.

33 Ibid.

34 Ibid.

35 Davis and Hirji 2014; Lesolle 2012; Mugabe et al 2013; IPCC 2014b

36 IPCC 2014b

37 IPCC 2014b

38 Englebrecht, F. 2007. “Projections of Future Climate Change over Africa – Climate Change Impacts on Human Comfort and Energy Demand”, CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment Climate Studies, Modelling and Environmental Health: www.mile.org.za/ QuickLinks/News/Documents/CCAM_futures_MUT_201309_001.pdf

39 MSD

40 Moyo, E.N. and Nangombe, S. 2015. “Southern Africa’s Violent Storms: Role of Climate Change”. IUTAM Symposium on the Dynamics of Extreme Events Influenced by Climate Change (2013). Procedia IUTAM 17:69–78: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S2210983815002497/pdf?md5=d19a37ea855bb478603a34f968b3a464&pid=1-s2.0- S2210983815002497-main.pdf, accessed August 2017

82 The impacts of climate change 83 3 Mugabe, F.T., Thomas, T.S., Hachigonta, S. and Sibanda, L.M. 2011. “Southern African 2011. “Southern Sibanda, L.M. S. and Hachigonta, T.S., Thomas, F.T., Mugabe, Zimbabwe”. for – Chapter 10 Analysis A Comprehensive Change: Climate and Agriculture http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896292086 doi: IFRI Publication. Ibid. Ibid. and Hirji 2014 Davis and Hirji 2014:27 Davis and Hirji 2014:33 Davis and Hirji 2014; IPCC Davis is summarised from in this section of the information Most Masiiwa, M., Dodman, D., K., Dhliwayo, Chanakira, R., Chatiza, D., 2014b; and Brown, Impacts, Change 2012. “Climate S. and Zvigadza, P. Mugabe, D., M., Muchadenyika, Paper 3, Change Working IIED Climate in Zimbabwe”. and Adaptation Vulnerability 2015 August accessed October 2012: http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10034IIED.pdf, and on bicolour) in Furrow (Sorghum Growing Sorghum of “The Effect 1996. P. Nyamudeza, – in Zimbabwe Region in a Semi-Arid Widths Row and Three Populations Three at the Flat 31:1–10 Research of Agricultural Journal Zimbabwe Components”. Grain Yield 2012 Lesolle 2014:20 CDKN et al 2012 et al in Brown Muriwa 2014b:1219 IPPC et al 2012 Brown and Mahoya, C. 2013. “The Impact of P. Chidoko, W., A., Kusena, Chemura, D., Kutywayo, Coffee The Case of the Pests: of Agricultural Distribution Change on the Potential Climate 8(8): e73432. https:// ONE PLoS ) in Zimbabwe”. leuconotus P. White (Monochamus Stem Borer doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 Manual . Zimbabwe Production Sugarcane 1998. Zimbabwe W.L. and Breakwell, M.J. Clowes, Chiredzi Sugar Association, Ramirez- C.V., Mohan, Lindahl, J., J., Kinyangi, D., Boone, R., Grace, Bett, B., Dinesh, D., “Impact of Climate P. 2015. and Thornton, J. Smith, T., R., Rosenstock, Robinson, Villegas, J., CGIAR And Diseases”. Copenhagen: on Pests Focus Change on African Agriculture: www. (CCAFS): Security and Food Change, Agriculture on Climate Programme Research ccafs.cgiar.org 2014. S. and Feresu, T. Mufaro, D., Tirivanhu, J., C., Mataruka, Matema, Manjengwa, J., of Environmental and Institute UNICEF Change in Zimbabwe”. and Climate “Children www.unicef.org/zimbabwe/Children_and_Climate_ of Zimbabwe: Studies, University 2015 August accessed Change_in_Zimbabwe_Report_2014.pdf, www.ies. Strategy”: Change Response Climate 2014. “National of Zimbabwe Government 2015 August accessed ac.zw/downloads/draftstrategy.pdf, Ibid. Ibid. et al 2016 Serdeczny Ibid. 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 3 The impacts of climate change

Children playing in a drying river

84 4 Climate change 4 governance

This chapter was revised and updated by Washington Zhakata Climate change governance

This chapter looks at international and local issues relating to climate change governance. Since the dangers of climate change emerged, there have been decades of international discussions and negotiations about how to manage the problem. Zimbabwe has been active in most of them and developed important local policy and strategy documents.

Chapter summary

International agreements 86 The UNFCCC 86 The Paris Agreement 90 Negotiations since Paris 92 Zimbabwe’s climate policies 92 National Climate Policy (NCP) 93 National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) 95 Zimbabwe’s NDCs 97 Additional policies 98 Next steps for Zimbabwe 99

85 4 International agreements 1 It was not until the 1990s that politicians began to take climate change seriously. The adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 marked the beginning of the international community’s first concerted effort to confront the climate change problem. The following section gives an overview of some of the key international negotiations, policies and agreements relating Climate change governance to climate change.

The UNFCCC

The UNFCCC is an international treaty whose main objective is to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. It came into force in 1994, and 196 nations as well as the European Union (EU) are parties to it as of 2017 and enjoy different statuses. Of these 164 have ratified the framework convention.

Annex 1 of the UNFCCC groups industrialised countries and countries with economies in transition, including the Russian Federation, the Baltic States and several central and eastern European states.

Annex 11 parties are the industrialised countries in Annex 1 without the economies in transition. They are required to give financial resources to developing countries to enable them to reduce their greenhouse emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Non-Annex 1 parties are mainly developing nations that are recognised as being particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.2 Zimbabwe is a non-annex party. 86 Climate change governance 87 4 Developed countries should take the lead in combating the lead in combating take should countries Developed change climate can meet their nations which developing to The degree depends on gas emissions greenhouse to reduce obligations and finance with they support their obligations how well technology emission-reducing eradication and poverty and social development Economic countries developing of the the priorities are yoto Protocol • • • UNFCCC acknowledges that: acknowledges The UNFCCC Parties of the The Conference is session COP) of the UNFCCC parties ( a conference Each year conference first The country assess progress. to held in a different tend to be countries in 1995. Developing was held in Berlin (COP1) coalitions formed in these meetings and have under-represented belongs to the Africa Zimbabwe positions. common to negotiate Group. The K Protocol, adopted the Kyoto the participants COP3, In 1997, during developed for binding obligations legally established which gas emissions and provided their greenhouse to reduce countries developed Article 3 required compliance: mechanisms to enforce 1990 least 5% below emissions by at overall their to reduce nations period 2008 to 2012. Each party was in the commitment levels in achieving its progress made demonstrable to have required refused to sign because States United by 2005. The commitments such as economies major growing not require did the protocol emissions. their China and India to reduce on 16 February 2005 and was force came into Protocol The Kyoto – a decision by the breakthrough political seen as an important parties to start a dialogue on strategic long-term cooperative 4 action on climate change. To help developed countries achieve their targets the protocol introduced carbon trading and clean development mechanisms (CDMs). The latter allow developing countries to earn emission reduction units by implementing projects that reduce emissions, such as forest conservation. The units can be traded and sold to industrialised countries to meet a part of their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol.3 Climate change governance

The Bali Action Plan

The failure of the USA to agree to the Kyoto Protocol was addressed in the Bali Action Plan that was put forward at COP13 in 2007. The plan proposed that UNFCCC parties would agree to the following at COP15 in 2009: • Quantified “commitments” from developed nations to reduce emissions • Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) by developing nations, including reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) • Mechanisms to adapt to impacts such as changing rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, rising sea levels and shifting patterns of disease • Technology transfer and development to support adaptation and mitigation • Finance and investment to pay for all of the above

The Bali Action Plan was not agreed at COP15 and no country was obliged to act. However, a major achievement of the session was the agreement that the average global temperature increase must not exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels as this would lead to dangerous and possibly irreversible climate change.

In Bali, the parties agreed that: 88 Climate change governance 89 4 The least developed countries (LDCs) would receive funding receive would (LDCs) countries least developed The of action programmes adaptation national to produce (NAPAs) would mechanisms and clean development Carbon trading their to achieve countries developed to allow be introduced below. as explained emissions targets, • • For a readable summary of how carbon trading works, visit http://science. For a readable howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/carbon-trading.htm Carbon emissions trading obligations can meet their mitigation countries Developed a less from is, by purchasing, carbon trading, that through to emit. has low emissions, the right country which developed of carbon and selling is based on buying The carbon market 2 equivalents tonnes of CO in measured are which credits, 2e). (tCO it but meagre, presently are from these markets The benefits as the market substantially increase they could is hoped that grows. The Doha Amendment was adopted at Protocol to the Kyoto Amendment The Doha on in Qatar Protocol a meeting of the parties to the Kyoto the second establishes 2012. The amendment 8 December will end on 31 which Protocol, period of the Kyoto commitment after on the ninetieth day force into will enter 2020. It December 144 parties sign up. 4 The Paris Agreement COP21, held in Paris in 2015, was a milestone session at which UNFCCC parties, the USA included, agreed on a comprehensive, legally binding global agreement. The Paris Agreement is a unifying treaty in global efforts to combat climate change. It commits the parties to ensuring that the rise in global temperature this century is kept well below 2°C above pre- industrial levels and to drive efforts to limit the temperature Climate change governance increase to 1.5°C. Another outcome of the agreement was to include developing countries in climate change mitigation, especially reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.4

The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, but implementation of its provisions will commence in 2020. The commitments to the agreement seem to have overshadowed the Kyoto Protocol and it is likely that it will become more significant in combating climate change.

Zimbabwe has ratified the Paris Agreement and prioritises adaptation actions with mitigation co-benefits to address greenhouse gas emissions. Zimbabwe subscribes to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in line with national capabilities as enshrined in the UNFCCC.

Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs)

The Paris Agreement requires all the parties to propose INDCs. These are legally binding statements of the amounts of greenhouse gases that a country proposes to emit from various sectors of their economy, representing emission reduction ambitions to be achieved by 2030. By 1 October 2015, 147 nations (75% of the parties to the Paris Agreement) had submitted their INDCs to the UNFCCC. They represented contributors to 90 Climate change governance 91 4 greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. 86% of global greenhouse approximately The INDCs of COP21. one of the main deliverables The INDCs are (NDCs) as countries determined contributions became nationally joined the Paris Agreement. in efforts stock of the collective In 2018 the parties will take and the goal set in the Paris Agreement towards advancing be a global will also of NDCs. There the preparation to inform collective starting in 2023, to assess the years, every five stocktake and to achieving the purpose of the agreement towards progress actions by the parties. further individual inform Water and Climate Prince Mupazviriho (in tan Permanent Secretary for Water delegation at the 2017 UN jacket) addresses members of the Zimbabwe climate conference in Bonn, Germany Gogo Photo: Jeffrey 4 Negotiations since Paris The year 2015 also saw the establishment of two other key international climate-related governance frameworks – the Sustainable Development Goals/Agenda 2030 and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

COP22 took place in Marrakech in 2016 and was notable for the action that took place outside of the negotiations, with Climate change governance politicians and representatives of countries and organisations using the opportunity to announce new initiatives, strategies and financial pledges. Seventy heads of state and governments also attended the high-level segment of COP22 and came up with a proclamation that signals a shift towards a new era of implementation and action on climate and sustainable development. The proclamation calls for further climate action and support, well in advance of 2020, taking into account the specific needs and circumstances of developing countries, LDCs and countries vulnerable to the adverse effects ofclimate change. The conference concluded with an accord on a 2018 deadline to complete a rulebook for putting the Paris Agreement into operation to ensure confidence, cooperation and success in subsequent years. The accord lifted the air of uncertainty which had dogged countries that had yet to ratify the agreement.

Zimbabwe’s climate policies

The government of Zimbabwe and its people are committed to addressing climate change challenges in pursuit of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals as well as obligations under the Paris Agreement with particular reference to the NDCs.

92 Climate change governance 93 4 climate change governance processes derive derive processes governance change climate national Zimbabwe’s the National of Zimbabwe, Constitution the from their authority Climate the National (NCCRS), Strategy Change Response Climate Acts and statutory that instruments and the laws, (NCP) Policy treaties conventions, under the commitments to the effect give addition In is a signatory. Zimbabwe to which and protocols and conventions regional and to being party to international Protocol Montreal Protocol, – the UNFCCC, Kyoto protocols among Desertification, Combat to Convention and The UN of an enabling the creation has facilitated others – Zimbabwe development and partnerships with policies environment, Change and the Climate NCP the partners. The NCCRS, the Ministry in Department Management of Environment change matters, climate coordinates which and Climate, Water this. part of are finance, including climate-resilient a climate-resilient towards a pathway seeks to create The NCP sufficient have the people in which and low-carbon economy with in harmony to develop and continue capacity adaptive in has been developed book A child-friendly the environment. the explain language to simple using children, with participation policy. climate Environmental the National is supported by the NCCRS, The NCP among Policy, and Forest Policy, Energy Renewable Policy, achieving sustainable aimed at are that other instruments development. and low-carbon is a climate-resilient The vision of the NCP all socio-economic The aim is to climate-proof Zimbabwe. to vulnerability Zimbabwe’s sectors to reduce development a implementing disasters, while and climate-related climate National Climate Policy (NCP) low-emission development pathway. The purpose of the policy is 4 to guide climate change management, enhance national adaptive capacity, scale up mitigation actions, facilitate domestication of global policies and ensure compliance with global mechanisms.

The NCP will help Zimbabwe to meet its NDCs targets, create resilient communities and guide the country towards an economy that is largely decoupled from climatic variations. The policy provides for strengthening the Climate Change Management Climate change governance Department 5 to coordinate the mainstreaming of climate change across different sectors of the economy. It also provides for the appointment of focal points, development of statutory instruments and implementation procedures to enhance climate action. This is discussed in detail in chapter 7 on finance.

The main aspects of the NCP

Climate change adaptation: The NCP promotes construction of more dams and strengthened irrigation infrastructure, water harvesting and harnessing of ground water resources. It calls for augmenting Zimbabwe’s health surveillance system and enhancing our understanding of the links between climate and health. Climate-proofing of infrastructure and human settlements will also be promoted.

Climate change mitigation and low-carbon development: According to Zimbabwe’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, the country’s main emissions sources are: fuel combustion or energy (68.5%), agriculture (22.35%), waste handling (3.93%) and industrial processes (5.21%). This aspect of climate policy sets out to accelerate mitigation measures by adopting and developing low-carbon pathways in the industrial, energy, waste, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry sectors.

94 Climate change governance 95 4 NCP links with with links NCP The awareness: and training education, Climate of implementation for provides which the UNFCCC, Article 6 of the and training, including awareness on education, programmes awareness and public of educational and exchange development effects. its change and on climate materials and modelling: Weather and climate research and Weather productivity, agricultural to ensure is vital information climate generation, power electricity resources, of water availability services, among other and aviation development infrastructure climate seeks to strengthen The policy activities. important to the solutions home-grown relevant promote and science skills enhancement and change. Knowledge of climate problems government systems and in relevant of the education all levels at priorities. are institutions and non-governmental sharing: The policy and information transfer Technology and encourage transfer barriers to technology seeks to remove research sector, universities, the private with collaboration and sharing partners in producing development and institutions climate- and technical support for technologies appropriate and resilience. preparedness development, infrastructure related aims to strengthen Climate change governance: The policy change management. climate Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) National Climate Change Response Strategy Climate, with the the with Climate, and Water The Ministry of Environment, the developed and Cabinet, President of the of the Office guidance the in addressing measures response to guide national NCCRS climate goal is “mainstreaming change.6 Its impacts of climate and in economic strategies and mitigation change adaptation multi- through and sectoral levels national at social development stakeholder engagement”. The strategy has seven pillars: 4 1. Adaptation and disaster risk management 2. Mitigation and low-carbon development strategies 3. Capacity building to bring about the following: adaptation and mitigation; climate change communication; education and raising awareness; research and development; and appropriate institutions to address climate change issues 4. Governance framework – institutions, networks and negotiations Climate change governance 5. Finance and investment – partnerships and international financing 6. Technology development and transfer, including infrastructure 7. Communication and advocacy, information management and dissemination

The NCCRS document contains sector-specific strategies for: Natural systems: air, water, land use, land-use change and forestry, and biodiversity and ecosystems Economic sectors: agriculture and food security, industry and commerce, mining and tourism Physical and social infrastructure: energy, transport, disaster risk management and social infrastructure, waste management, health, gender, people living with HIV and AIDS, and vulnerable groups, children and youth

In putting the National Climate Policy into operation, the NCCRS will guide the implementation of the provisions of the policy with special attention to mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in economic and social development at national and sectoral levels through multi-stakeholder engagement.

96 Climate change governance 97 4 Zimbabwe’s NDCs Zimbabwe’s INDCs in its parties, submitted the other like Zimbabwe, gases emissions a greenhouse 2015.7 They presented September business- projected below the of 33% per capita target reduction to be achieved is envisaged by 2030. The target as-usual scenario efficiency and energy development, energy renewable through and The INDCs became NDCs, practices. agriculture climate-smart force. came into Paris Agreement the binding, when therefore (LEDS) strategy of a low-emission development Development The under way. by 2030 is is achieved the NDC target to ensure planned LEDS to existing and links the NDC and framework Selected and CDMs. NAMAs including activities, mitigation the aligned with of the NDCs are implementation actions for Agenda the Zimbabwe including plans, country’s development (ZimAsset), the Transformation Socio-Economic Sustainable for and Programme Development Africa Agriculture Comprehensive among others. Plan, Investment Agriculture the Zimbabwe on the NDC focuses Zimbabwe’s of component The mitigation to contributions energy of the extensive sector because energy other sectors. to gases in comparison of greenhouse the reduction including initiatives, Action in this sector is supported by several Biofuels Policy, Energy Renewable Policy, Climate the National and other instruments Policy Forestry Policy, Transport Policy, and gas emissions to a minimum greenhouse seeking to keep development. ensuring green seeks that component an adaptation NDCs also have Zimbabwe’s of adaptation and implementation planning to upscale national socioeconomic of all sensitive resilience enhance actions that The agricultural capacity. adaptive the national sectors to improve change mitigation climate for opportunities sector also provides through initiatives such as climate-smart agriculture and 4 sustainable agroforestry-based practices. The sector therefore has multiple benefits, and Zimbabwe foresees greenhouse gas emission reductions while improving agricultural productivity and enhancing national food security.

Additional policies

The legal and governance frameworks regulating environmental Climate change governance protection in Zimbabwe are contained in a wide range of laws and policies falling under the mandates of the ministries responsible for environment, agriculture, mines and energy, health and home affairs, among others.

The Environmental Management Act of 2002 provides the overall framework for sustainable natural resource management and environmental protection. The section most relevant to climate change is chapter 20 section 27. Zimbabwe launched its environment policy in 2009.

The NCCRS identifies the following official instruments that relate to climate change: the National Policy and Programme on Drought Mitigation; the Draft Disaster Risk Management Policy and Strategy, the Science, Technology and Innovation Policy (2012), the Water Policy, the Agriculture Marketing and Pricing Policy and the Small, Micro and Medium Enterprises Policy.8 The NCCRS also notes that ZimAsset recognises the impact of climate change on agriculture and highlights the need for a climate change policy as a key result area.9

Water is administered through the National Water Act and National Water Authority Act, both of 1998, which provide administrative and legal frameworks for management of catchments, water abstraction and regulation of water pollution. 98 Climate change governance 99 4 10 water, which grants grants which ownership of water, removal of private The a to water, access equitable and more freer communities change makes as climate important will be that measure variable more rainfall patterns pricing, water through of water The demand management reduced and efficiency measures use water increased wastage • • Zimbabwe Zimbabwe is the administration for water responsible body The issuing water for is responsible which Authority, Water National permits. change to climate respect Acts with the water aspects of Positive are: need which change but to climate relevant are that Other policies change of the climate the light in and updated to be reviewed are: strategy Policy Energy National The Pollution The Statutory on Air Instrument Policy Climate National The Policy Biofuels National The Policy Energy The Renewable Policy Forestry The Policy The Agriculture and Policy Mitigation The Drought Act Protection The Civil Next steps for Zimbabwe and of the Paris Agreement the provisions In line with a the country will maintain negotiations the subsequent for climate system (MRV) and verification reporting monitoring, change mitigation and adaptation actions. It aims to ensure 4 transparency of the NDCs implementation. The government will put the requisite legal framework in place to ensure continuous monitoring for biennial reporting on NDCs progress, integrated within existing reporting processes and structures. Development of capacities in MRV systems will link with existing processes, including the preparation of national communications, biennial update reports, Sustainable Development Goals, Agenda 2063 and ZimAsset, among others. The MRV system will reflect the Climate change governance accounting rules to be agreed internationally under UNFCCC and establish a national registry system for readily accessible information.

This chapter looked at the international governance instruments and negotiations around climate change and relevant local policies. The next chapter examines adaptation to climate change.

Endnotes

1 IPCC 2014: Fifth Assessment Report AR5: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Parties and Observers: http:// unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/items/2704.php

3 https://cdm.unfccc.int/about/index.html

4 UNFCCC: The Paris Agreement: http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php

5 For more information about the Climate Change Management Department, visit www. climatechange.org.zw/about-climate-change-management-department

6 GoZ 2014 : www.ies.ac.zw/downloads/draftstrategy.pdf

7 Zimbabwe’s intended nationally determined contributions submitted to the UNFCCC: www.climatechange.org.zw/sites/default/files/Zimbabwe%20Intended%20Nationally%20 Determined%20Contribution%202015.pdf

8 GoZ 2014: “National Climate Change Response Strategy”: www.ies.ac.zw/downloads/ draftstrategy.pdf, p. 64. accessed August 2015

9 Ibid.

10 Chagutah, T. 2010. “Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Preparedness in Southern Africa. Zimbabwe Country Report”. Heinrich Böll Stiftung Southern Africa: http://za.boell.org/sites/default/files/downloads/HBF_web_Zim_21_2.pdf, p. 13, accessed August 2015

100 5 How can Zimbabwe 5 adapt?

This chapter was reviewed by Dr Ndebele-Murisa, Dr Dube and Elijah Moyo, with additional material contributed by Prof. Mugabe and Tendayi Marowa How can Zimbabwe adapt?

This chapter discusses ways in which Zimbabweans can build the resilience and adaptive capacity of human and ecological systems to address climate change today and in the future. It examines the roles of communities, the private sector, development partners and governments and identifies adaptation measures for specific sectors.

Chapter summary

Principles of adaptation 102 Adaptation and sustainable development 106 Adaptation and mitigation 108 Different levels of adaptation 108 Community-based adaptation (CBA) 109 Governance and institutional frameworks 115 Adaptation options for different sectors 118 Water management 118 Land management 123 Business adaptation and infrastructure resilience 130 Human communities 133

101 5 Principles of adaptation As mentioned in chapter 3, even if greenhouse gas emissions are stopped today (which is extremely unlikely to happen), many of the negative impacts of climate change will continue to have an effect for decades.1 The IPCC predicts that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise there will be cataclysmic results for human societies and natural systems. Therefore, it is crucial that as individuals, communities and as a nation we strengthen our How can Zimbabwe adapt? ability to withstand potential adversity and to adapt the ways we live and the resources we use. While there are uncertainties in the climate projections, Zimbabwe will be safer from any potential impacts if it puts adaptation options in place.

Adaptation is described by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in its 2007 report as “the process through which societies increase their ability to cope with an uncertain future, which involves taking appropriate action and making the adjustments and changes to reduce the negative impacts of climate change”.2

There are two main ways to adapt to future climate change impacts: reducing the vulnerability of communities, including people and the ecological components on which they depend, by building resilience and increasing their adaptive capacity (ability to adapt); and by reducing the risks of climate hazard impacts (disaster risk reduction).

102 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 5 103 3 Learn about the components of your system (social, system of your the components Learn about and economic) ecological and shocks hazards threats, potential Identify of vulnerability areas Identify capacity adaptive increase could that factors Identify plan a disaster risk reduction Develop vulnerability to reduce in place measures Put capacity adaptive to increase in place measures Put 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. climate-proof your community How to climate-proof system to any applied can be of adaptation These principles farm. village, suburb or home, business, school, such as a method developed by Oxfam for helping communities to identify to identify helping communities for by Oxfam method developed and reduce capacity adaptive their can strengthen factors which community for plans they can develop so that their vulnerability and disaster management. adaptation Developing adaptive capacity communities households, individuals, which The manner in and on their vulnerability can adapt depends or the nation to successfully to respond (the ability capacity their adaptive changes can involve and change). Adaptation variability climate drought- farmers to plant such as encouraging to behaviour, Reducing vulnerability an individual, to which to the degree refers Vulnerability harm. of risk to exposed or to sensitive is community or household individuals, for is important it vulnerability, to reduce In order the to identify and the like businesses families, communities, doing for One useful tool vulnerable. they are in which ways (PCVA) Analysis this is the Participatory Vulnerability Capacity resistant crops, and changes to infrastructure, such as digging 5 boreholes or flood-proofing roads and bridges.4

Adaptive capacity is necessary for the design and implementation of effectiveadaptation strategies which reduce the likelihood and magnitude of climate change threats and hazards.5 Adaptive capacity also allows sectors and institutions to take advantage of opportunities or benefits from climate change, such as a longer growing seasons or increased potential for tourism. How can Zimbabwe adapt?

Building resilience

Resilience is the ability to withstand and recover from hazards or shocks and is an important part of adaptation. Resilience is enhanced when a person or system can learn from past disasters in order to reduce future risks.6 If we aim to build resilient communities of people and the ecological resources on which they depend we will have a better chance of successful adaptation to climate change.

In order to apply resilience principles, we need to think about our communities in terms of systems. Resilience recognises that every part of a system – whether a village, forest or farm – is connected. This means that whatever happens to one part of a system can affect many of the other parts. For example, drought reduces water, causing crops to die, soil to be damaged and people to go hungry, as well as health problems and reduced incomes.

104 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 5 105 heat waves, hail, frost hail, frost waves, heat such as drought, hazards Climate or floods or crops humans, (affecting or disease outbreaks Pest livestock) or goods of food hikes Price Wildfires and social unrest conflict Human • • • • • Building resilient communities Building resilient so are of Zimbabweans and livelihoods the lives Because and climate, resources of our natural to the state linked closely made up as systems of our communities is helpful to think it plants soil, water, – climate, elements and ecological of human involve change must to climate and animals. Adaptation aspects and ecological human in both the building resilience of the community. a system affect can negatively that Some shocks and hazards are: As shown in table 1, chapter 3, Zimbabwe has several factors in its factors in its several has 1, chapter 3, Zimbabwe As shown in table natural abundant including to adaptation, comes it when favour and a diversified population resilient a well-educated, resources, – good infrastructure countrycomparatively The has economy. and storage facilities grain settlements, hospitals, schools, roads, to support climate can all be strengthened social services – which communities, in Zimbabwean The social networks resilience. a Moreover, strong. still fairly are in rural areas, particularly has already which knowledge, traditional of local and wealth for climate variably in a highly to survive Zimbabweans enabled can be tapped. All these factors will help Zimbabweans centuries, change impacts. together to tackle climate to work 5 Encouraging diversity One of the most important principles of resilience is encouraging diversity in all forms – for example, obtaining water from many different sources, growing many different crops and having many sources of income. The more diverse elements that are present in a system, the stronger it is; if one element of the system is damaged – through drought, fire, disease or other setbacks – another element is able to take its place. For example, if we grow only How can Zimbabwe adapt? maize, a drought may destroy our entire crop, but if we also grow millet, sorghum and legumes, it is likely that some of our crops will survive the drought, giving us at least some food and income. Other non-agriculture livelihood options should also be explored and promoted to cope with climate change.

Adaptation strategies: win-win, low regrets and no regrets

No-regret actions are cost-effective and help address the risks of climate change. They have no serious trade-offs with other adaptation or mitigation objectives.

Low-regret actions are relatively cheap and provide relatively large benefits under projected climate scenarios.

Win-win actions contribute to adaptation and have other social, economic and environmental benefits, including those relating to mitigation.

Adaptation and sustainable development

Many adaptation measures are not specifically related to climate change, but are essentially sustainable ways to improve the management of resources and communities. Thus, most 106 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 5 107 sustainable of sustainable the foundations are measures adaptation of the new achieving many and will go towards development SADC Agenda 2063, the Goals,7 Africa’s Development Sustainable of ZimAsset, the objectives and many strategy industrialisation development. economic sustainable for blueprint government’s whether or not communities, will benefit these measures Because “no regret” “win-win”, called are change happens, they climate of the diversity increasing example, For solutions. or “low regret” reduce will not only varieties drought-resistant to include crops pests or by drought, harvest being destroyed the risk of an entire pest the soil, reduce improve will also help to rainfall, but intense nutrition. family and diseases and improve infestations Growing drought-resistant crops such as sorghum is a climate-smart Growing drought-resistant crops such as sorghum adaptation 5 Adaptation and mitigation Ideally, adaptation measures should also lower greenhouse gas emissions or help to draw greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, thus reducing, or mitigating, the effects of future climate change. For example, planting trees and safeguarding forests will protect the soil and improve the ability of rainfall to recharge underground water stores, and the trees will help to take CO2 out of the atmosphere, thus reducing global warming. How can Zimbabwe adapt?

Different levels of adaptation

Adaptation can occur on many levels. Individuals, households, communities, civil society, the private sector and local and national government departments can all contribute. Studies on adaptation to climate change make the point that each community has different levels of vulnerability and resilience and each situation is different. Therefore, a blanket, top-down approach is not going to be successful.

Indigenous knowledge systems

Building on indigenous knowledge systems such as those described in case studies 1 and 2 recognises that local people have a wealth of knowledge of how to cope with adversity, and building on this can help make adaptation strategies more locally appropriate. Several adaptation projects were initiated in Zimbabwe during the past decade. While there have been successes, critics argue that the duration of the projects was too short for them to be sustainable and that only a few communities were targeted.8 Some of these projects suffered from the lack of a good sustainability plan, were top-down or the technologies 108 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 5 109 Identification of hazards (including drought, flooding, crop and livestock pests and disease, human health hazards and price fluctuations of agricultural commodities) Projects involve developing adaptive capacity and disaster risk management plans Main features • • Implementing agencies UNDP through Action Aid, and Care Welthungerhilfe implementing projects in some of the driest districts Name of project and area Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund Programmes promoted were not cost-effective. However, important lessons lessons important However, not cost-effective. were promoted to the led These have initiatives. these from been learnt have as as well strategies and policies climate of key development systems. and institutional governance strategies adaptation successful has been that One crucial lesson or bottom-up, while the community, from need to come strategies, policies, coordination, national being supported by and legislation. transfer technology Community-based adaptation (CBA) Community-based agencies government with work method, communities this Using assess and and vulnerabilities their resources to analyse or NGOs ways They then develop hazards. change their risks of climate to predict their ability increase capacity, to build their adaptive from recovery to enable resilience and develop hazards potential used this approach, have in Zimbabwe projects them. Several 3: those shown in table including 3: Some successful CBA projects in Zimbabwe Table Name of project Implementing agencies Main features and area

5 Coping with GoZ, UN Development • Assessment of climate risks drought and Programme (UNDP) and • Assessment of vulnerability of climate change in the Global Environment livelihoods and most vulnerable Chiredzi Fund (GEF) 9 locations • Identification of adaptation strategies • Implementation of pilot project

Managing climate Lutheran Development • Raising awareness of vulnerability in Services climate change and building Makuwerere community capacity Ward, Mberengwa • Promoting sustainable use How can Zimbabwe adapt? District of woodland for fuel-saving stoves

Increasing food Practical Action • Soil and water conservation and livelihood techniques security in • Climate-resilient crop varieties Bulilimamangwe and goat breeds and Gwanda • Livelihood-centred disaster risk reduction

Community- ZERO Regional • Community members based adaptation Environmental identified the impacts of to climate change Organisation climate change and noted in Africa 10 in their current strategies to Munyawiri Ward, deal with it while making Domboshava area recommendations for future of Goromonzi adaptations District

Strengthening Oxfam in partnership • AGRITEX officers and farmers weather and with the Meteorological improved their knowledge of climate change Service Department weather, agro-meteorology information (MSD), AGRITEX and and climate change adaptation dissemination 11 Chinhoyi University of • Weather stations were set up in Chirumanzu, Technology in the target districts Zvishavane and • Farmers gained improved Gutu access to local weather, climate and agro-meteorological information services

Building adaptive Midlands State University, • Developed education, research capacity to cope the International Crop and extension competencies with increasing Research Institute to create strategies that help vulnerability for the Semi-Arid rural communities increase due to drought Tropics (ICRISAT), their adaptive capacity to cope in Gweru and Zimbabwe Agricultural with risks and opportunities Lupane District Research Institute and associated with climate change AGRITEX and variability

110 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 111 5 Source: Practical Action: http://practicalaction.org/climate-change-and- Source: extension climate change are already being felt by being felt already change are of climate The effects and vulnerability in increased resulting farmers, Zimbabwean harvests. adequate to produce their ability reducing in a project Africa implemented Practical Action Southern provinces South and Matabeleland Masvingo, Midlands farmers to of smallholder the capabilities aiming to improve change and variability. and adapt to climate with cope of Agriculture, the Department partners were project Key and the and Extension Services (AGRITEX) Technical enabled The project Services Department. Meteorological and decisions better plans make farmers to smallholder This information. and weather climate based on accurate to AGRITEX staff from by training professional was achieved change of climate and awareness their knowledge increase issues. which decisions about informed can now make Farmers also them. They are to plant when and to plant crops small horticulture, to include their livelihoods diversifying for supplementary animal husbandry feed and growing the dry during also using The farmers are season. livestock better yields give techniques that agriculture conservation dry methods during years. than conventional adaptation in adaptation climate change 2: Mainstreaming Case study extension system agricultural Zimbabwe’s Case study 3: Traditional climate forecasting in Munyawiri 5 Ward, Domboshawa

Farmers in Munyawiri Ward use observations of temperature, rainfall, thunderstorms, windstorms and sunshine to prepare for the agricultural season. The method most relied upon is gauging the timing, intensity and duration of cold temperatures during the winter (May to July). A very cold winter is said to lead to a good rainy season. How can Zimbabwe adapt?

Elderly male farmers note natural occurrences such as the appearance of certain birds, mating of certain animals and flowering of certain plants to forecast weather trends. The abundance of certain wild fruits indicates the quantity of rain expected. The elevation of birds’ nests during the dry season is also important: if nests are built close to the ground, then rains will be poor; when they are high up, good rains can be expected.

Traditional coping mechanisms in the face of climate hazards include growing drought-resistant crops, harvesting rainwater off roofs and diversifying livelihood activities away from agriculture. Traditional leaders advocate time-honoured resource management practices, including protection of riverine vegetation and forests and prevention of wildfires. In this community, however, many no longer respect the traditional leaders and ignore their advice. In order to build resilience, Zimbabwean communities will have to develop new approaches to protecting communal resources and mobilising community support for climate change adaptation strategies.

Source: Zvigadza et al. 2010

112 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 113 5 Participatory workshops were held with farmers in Lupane Lupane farmers in held with were Participatory workshops of changing their perceptions to understand Gweru and Lower seasonal climate indigenous document conditions, climate results field experimental (SCF) systems and evaluate forecast asked were Farmers forecasts. these from based on decisions and 2009/2010 seasons the 2008/2009 for predictions to make of changing and perceptions using their own indicators on a a consensus up with coming before conditions climate the SCF with compared was forecast Their the district. SCF for issued by the MSD. farmers’ rainfall consistency between was impressive There of environmental using indigenous knowledge predictions and the actual rainfall totals. The farmers predicted indicators 2009/10 season. The MSD SCF 2008/9 and a drier a wetter 2008/9 season and normal for average was normal to above 1,100 rainfall totals were 2009/10. Actual to below normal for Lower and Lupane for mm and 944 mm in the 2008/9 season and Lower Lupane Rainfall totals for respectively. Gweru the during mm respectively 617 mm and 505 were Gweru 2009/10 season. options they management what then asked were Farmers part They took forecast. the seasonal climate given take would their designed to test how were that in field experiments variety selection, tillage methods and crop decisions about crop based on the SCF affected types and amounts, fertiliser yields. in yield resulted of fertilisers amounts Adding recommended climate forecasting for sustainable for sustainable 4. Seasonal climate forecasting Case study crop production increases of 40% over yields with half the recommended 5 amounts. Growing long-season varieties resulted in higher yields (22%) than for short-season varieties in the wetter 2008/9 season, while short-season varieties had yield advantages of 36% over the longer-season varieties in the 2009/10 season, which was relatively dry. Frequent weeding resulted in an 8% increase in maize yields compared to weeding once in a season. The study demonstrates that knowledge of the coming season assists farmers in coming up How can Zimbabwe adapt? with adaptive strategies for climate variability and change. Some of the indices used for predicting the coming season are listed below.

Table 4: Indigenous knowledge indices used for predicting the coming season

Wet year Drought year

Rhus lancea (African sumac), called Rhus lancea produces few fruits while mutepe in Shona and ucane in Ndebele, Lannea discolour produces fruits but and Lannea discolour (mugan’acha, aborts mumbumbu) trees produce lots of fruits

Azanza garkeana (mutowhe, uxakuxaku) Azanza garkeana fruit well do not fruit well

Heat waves experienced Heat waves not experienced

Early haziness soon after winter Extended winter period

Frogs turning brownish White frogs appear in trees

Water birds making a lot of noise Lots of thunderstorms without rains

Butterflies seen hovering in the Early rains starting from early air from north to south starting in October October

Source: Chagonda et al 2013

114 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 115 5 adaptation and support adaptation that and strategies policies Enacting activities deter vulnerable plans, of local adaptation the development Facilitating information measures, disaster risk-reduction including building and capacity dissemination and marginalised vulnerable protect that laws Enforcing resources and natural groups change issues and adaptation of climate Raising awareness issues and successes about the sharing of information Facilitating learning among communities for framework a national and implementing Developing services climate and local national from information climate Disseminating extension agents to farmers through stations meteorological • • • • • • • Super computer improves weather forecasting a high-performance acquired of Zimbabwe The government of the University at in 2012. Housed super computer fields. The research being used in several is it Zimbabwe, to computer, to use the MSD was one of the first institutes in models forecasting global weather downscale complex helped This has forecasts. weather daily to generate order in Zimbabwe, forecasting weather of the accuracy improve warning early of development the to significantly contributing level. community systems at NCCRS have already been mentioned. For more more For mentioned. been already have and NCCRS The NCP Governance and institutional frameworks and institutional Governance implementation the can facilitate government national Local and through: strategies of adaptation details of how the government is supporting the adaptation 5 process, visit the Climate Change Management Department website at www.climatechange.org.zw/ where you can download several useful resources.

Case study 5: Climate-proofing Nyanyadzi irrigation scheme How can Zimbabwe adapt? The increasing frequency of drought and heavy rainfall events, coupled with shifting rainfall patterns, is a major challenge facing rural communities in the south-western areas of Chimanimani District. Nyanyadzi irrigation scheme should be an important adaptation component in the district, but it declined in productivity when soil erosion caused heavy siltation after its construction in 1935, and it became dysfunctional in 2000.

An integrated micro-watershed management project to climate-proof the irrigation scheme, which benefits 721 farmers on 412.38 ha as part of an adaptation and resilience strategy for Chimanimani District, was initiated by a partnership of NGOs and government departments under the UNDP/GEF-supported project, “Scaling up Adaptation in Zimbabwe, with a Focus on Rural Livelihoods (2014–2018)”.

The partnership brought together UN agencies, civil society, government departments, the local authority and local community. The government contributed technical expertise and machinery for conservation works and desiltation of canals and water reservoirs. This lowered the project implementation costs by about 70%.

116 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 117 5 The integrated micro-watershed approach covered covered approach micro-watershed integrated The dead- runoff, redirect to drains storm traps, silt in investments area in the a school harvesting at rainwater contours, level the sub-catchments 180 ha of over and grass planting and tree the left investments These health. ecosystem to improve siltation and prevented scheme better protected irrigation in 2016–17, to the the area Dineo ravaged Cyclone when of the farmers. delight dam and canals storage overnight an of a weir, Desiltation machinery with from and technical support was undertaken years first time in 17 the For of Irrigation. the Department started reaching River Nyanyadzi the from water gravity-fed farmers scheme, enabling of the irrigation blocks all the four onions, sugar beans, maize tomatoes, wheat, winter to plant expected to more are incomes Farmers’ and groundnuts. have markets sector Private year. by the fourth than double Michigan pea beans and a micro-finance for been established farmers. to support the on board has come institution Diversion drain within Nyanyadzi catchment Diversion drain Photo: Oxfam The project reduced run-off, soil erosion and sedimentation, 5 and stormwater damage to irrigation and other infrastructure while increasing groundwater recharge and the ecological integrity of the catchment system. It improved irrigated cropping potential with a year-round cropping calendar, increasing farmer income potential from the current $2,844 to $6,479 per annum by year four after investment, and improved coordination between the government, UN agencies and civil society. To ensure sustainability the project supported How can Zimbabwe adapt? strengthened governance of the scheme. In all the project has enhanced the livelihoods and adaptive capacity of the targeted population.

Dr L. Unganai, Oxfam 2017

Adaptation options for different sectors

Table 5 summarises some of the specific adaptation measures that have been proposed for Zimbabwe. Some of these are described in detail in the following section.

Water management

As discussed in chapter 3, water is the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. Therefore, building resilient water management systems will be a crucial climate change strategy for Zimbabwe. First, we need to understand the factors influencing the water cycle, which are described in chapter 2, notably the vital role of aquifers and wetlands, as well as vegetation cover in the form of forests and grass. Underground 118 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 119 5 catchment (the land uphill from from (the land uphill catchment of river areas Protecting along springs, and vegetation wetlands, including the river), and rivers streams deforestation Preventing compaction to reduce Managing grazing areas • • • water cleaner than water is usually and it does not evaporate water pollutants. from protected better as it on the surface stored the for improving recommended are methods following The stores: water of underground resilience Improving infiltration to water the soil to encourage by protecting This can be achieved include: measures Soil protection infiltrate. Passing knowledge to younger generations is an important adaptive measure knowledge to younger generations Passing • Avoiding use of fire to clear land and reducing risk from 5 wildfires • Water harvesting, including dead-level contours and catch dams that allow water to sink into the soil, particularly on slopes • Reduced ploughing using conservation agriculture 12 methods, including minimum tillage and mulching • Agroforestry – planting beneficial trees and shrubs around fields and between crops How can Zimbabwe adapt?

Reducing evaporation

• Planting soil-improving crops such as legumes between main crops to cover the soil • Mulching crops with crop residues • Planting trees around gardens and fields to act as windbreaks • Encouraging evergreen agricultural technologies and agroforestry • Protecting vegetation along streams, rivers and wetlands and around the edges of dams • Introducing drip irrigation and bottle-watering methods

Using mulch

Mulch is any material that is used to cover the soil. The most effective type of mulch is organic matter that increases soil fertility while covering the soil to prevent erosion and reduce evaporation. As mulch decays it increases the organic matter content of the soil, which reduces erosion and improves the water- and nutrient-holding capacity of the soil.

120 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 121 5 food food yields, greater crop consistent and more Improved standards living and enhanced security and of cash crops growing through income Generating the dry during season crops growing improves farming, which fish for opportunities Providing nutrition • • • Expanding irrigation Expanding get a and most farmers is not reliable production Dryland crop semi-arid in especially years, of five out three in only good yield dams, but and large medium small, has many 13 Zimbabwe areas. irrigation Other options for irrigation. for underutilised most are dry from and sand abstraction boreholes and the use of wells are beds. river sensitive sector highly the agriculture makes irrigation Limited builds farmers’ irrigation improved while hazards, to climate drought. and change and variability to climate resilience its hence of water; short is never the crop that ensures Irrigation advantages: has the following It strategy. use as an adaptation While resilience is crucial to building expansion of irrigation of management depends on sustainable much in Zimbabwe, such as technologies by using efficient instance – for resources by increasing cycle the water – and balancing drip irrigation evaporation. reducing and infiltration Table 5: Adaptation strategies for some of the main sectors that will be 5 affected by climate change

Sector Adaptation measure

Water • Improved monitoring and analysis of available national surface and groundwater reserves • Improved water supply to communities from groundwater sources • Protecting catchments, especially wetlands • Preventing deforestation and promoting afforestation • Managing grazing areas • Reducing fires How can Zimbabwe adapt? • Water harvesting • Conservation and climate-smart agriculture • Agroforestry • Planting cover crops • Mulching • Planting windbreaks • Drip irrigation • Using underground water stores rather than dams

Land • Gulley reclamation and slope protection • Reduced burning and land clearance • Improved grazing management • Protection of forests and planting of windbreaks • Conservation agriculture • Crop rotation, intercropping, compost and mulch

Vegetation • Crop diversification • Planting mixtures of crops and cultivars adapted to different conditions as intercrops • Using crop varieties that are more tolerant to climate stresses • Using climate forecasting to reduce production risk • Encouraging the sustainable use of forests • Controlling fires • Promoting alternatives to firewood • Promoting agroforestry • Encouraging seed banks • Improving post-harvest storage • Encouraging integrated pest and disease management

Business • Investigating alternative inputs, outputs, products and processes • Diversifying energy supply to reduce reliance on grid electricity • Optimising water supply • Adopting an inclusive business model, working with all value chain actors to promote adaptation solutions • Adopting the circular economy concept whereby resources are conserved with little waste • Promoting worker health and welfare

122 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 123 5 Raising awareness, informing and educating Raising awareness, collective decision making and community-based Strengthening action addressing areas of vulnerability Identifying and and disaster risk management Developing adaptation plans strategies and scientific indigenous practices Building on successful approaches including roads, bridges and Climate-proof infrastructure, buildings Diversifying livelihoods research on climate-resilient crops and livestock Conducting Adaptation measure Adaptation • • • • • • • • Sector Human communities Land management planning proper techniques hinge on land management Adaptive resources damaging natural to avoid developments of land-use and soil erosion. destruction of vegetation pollution, through has caused sector that expanding economic Mining is a rapidly open-cast Informal in Zimbabwe. land degradation widespread but implicated, been especially have mining and panning in rivers 14 The main the blame. share must mining operations large-scale soil erosion, land degradation, by mining are created problems and pollution. and shafts, deforestation open pits from hazards in activities of land-based capacity to build the adaptive In order abide by must mining operators and large-scale small- future, remains it not doing so. However, for and be prosecuted the law parts of the country; it in many measures one of the adaptation in decriminalised and practised needs to be formalised, therefore way. a sustainable Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) Some is agriculture. in Zimbabwe activity The main land-use burning of such as deforestation, activities agricultural chemicals by agricultural of soil and water pollution vegetation, and uncontrolled livestock grazing can harm natural systems. 5 Rising temperatures and other harmful consequences of climate change for vegetation and water are likely to reduce soil fertility. Zimbabwean soils tend to lack fertility because of their diminished capacity to store nutrients and water, and in many areas the soil structure makes them vulnerable to erosion. Many farmers pay high prices for chemical fertilisers. Soil fertility and water-holding capacity are affected by the structure of the soil and its organic content. These in turn are damaged by many How can Zimbabwe adapt? common agricultural practices, including deforestation, burning and ploughing.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations defines CSA as “agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes GHGs (mitigation) where possible, and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals”.15

CSA techniques include mulching, intercropping, conservation agriculture, crop rotation, integrated crop-livestock management, agroforestry, improved grazing and better water management.16 They also cover innovative practices such as better weather forecasting, early warning systems and risk insurance designed to increase the resilience of smallholder farmers and poor communities to shocks, which are often weather- and climate- related. The main benefits of implementing improved cropland management practices are higher and more stable yields, increased system resilience and therefore enhanced livelihoods and food security, and reduced production risk.17

Conservation agriculture (CA)

In the last two decades there has been a global campaign to promote CA, which advocates minimising tillage, increasing soil 124 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 125 5 soil. Thus, Thus, soil. atmosphere and storing it in the in it storing and atmosphere from the the from 2 CO Case study 6: Experiences with CA in Zimbabwe Case study 6: Experiences to successful of the soil is fundamental care that CA recognises three incorporates It agriculture. and drought-resilient and soil cover permanent minimal soil disturbance, principles: soil improve soil erosion, reduce These methods rotation. crop yields. improve and water conserve fertility, the CA encourages damages soil structure, ploughing Since left as are residues basins. Crop into directly crops of planting wind and water from it to protect on the soil surface mulch with rotated are Cereals evaporation. and reduce erosion seasons. CA is also being promoted legumes in alternating farmers whereby a method of fertilisers, micro-dosing with results. effective with of fertiliser low rates use extremely of crop livestock deprives CA is labour-intensive, say Critics management. weed the need for and increases residues who of women the workload increases it these reasons, For farm labour. of bear the main burden already season, or third after the second that argue Proponents as in the previous holes farmers can use the same planting emerge. weeds builds up, fewer as mulch season. Moreover, the and gradually been introduced have planters Mechanical idea has spread. water harvesting by using planting harvesting planting by using and water content matter organic of way important also an are methods agricultural basins. Such removing change. climate can also mitigate soil management improved CA in Zimbabwe. with experiences at 6 looks Case study 5 How can Zimbabwe adapt?

A farmer making CA planting basins

CA is the best practice developed so far for addressing current and future problems relating to soil fertility and agriculture, and has been shown to produce higher yields than conventional agricultural methods, particularly during drought years. The FAO estimates that over 300,000 farmers are practising CA in Zimbabwe today.

Source: ICRISAT

Other methods for improved land management are: • Gulley reclamation and protection of slopes using plants and earth structures • Reduced burning and land clearance • Construction of dead-level contours • Improved grazing management • Protection of forests and planting of windbreaks • Improving soil fertility with crop rotation, intercropping (planting different crops together), compost and mulch 126 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 127 5 crop diversification by planting a wider range planting by diversification crop Encouraging crops of drought-tolerant honey and for use of forests the sustainable Encouraging insects and such as edible products other non-timber forest living from a value realise people so that indigenous fruits trees to clear fires avoiding and firebreaks through control Fire crops land for and managing grazing areas Protecting and encouraging fuels to firewood alternative Promoting methods cooking energy-efficient and woodlots fencing live including agroforestry, Promoting their seeds and develop to save communities Encouraging local varieties seed banks for as grain such storage of crops, post-harvest Improving food destruction by insects and increase to prevent stores, scarce is food times when during security • • • • • • • • Vegetation management Vegetation fuel and other food, for on vegetation depend directly We an important make which and wildlife, Livestock products. on depend the economy, and to livelihoods contribution communities provides Vegetation and shade. fodder for vegetation of protection services, including ecosystem important other with the into of water better infiltration soil fertility, the soil, improved Areas of the climate. of the air and improvement soil, purification climate. moister and less windy a cooler, have vegetation with by climate we depend upon will be harmed that plants The reduction by drought, will be affected in particular change. Crops while and disease outbreaks, pest infestations in soil fertility, farming and fuel and by clearing for will be threatened forests the impacts of reduce can following measures The by wildfires. vegetation: to change in relation climate 5 How can Zimbabwe adapt?

Agroforestry integrates trees and field crops

• Encouraging integrated pest and disease management to reduce pest infestations and diseases using cultural, biological and physical methods rather than depending on chemicals that may exacerbate pest problems in the long term.

Integrated pest and disease management (IPDM) is an effective, environmentally sensitive approach to controlling pests and diseases through cultural, biological and mechanical methods in order to reduce dependence on pesticides. See www.epa.gov/agriculture/tipm.html

128 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 129 5 Source: Mutambara et al 2012 Source: Agroforestry involves growing beneficial trees or shrubs as or trees beneficial growing involves Agroforestry of a wide range can produce Trees systems. part of cropping They and timber. firewood fodder, food, including products, its increase and erosion from it soil, protect the can improve content. water woodlots, systems as crop with can be integrated Trees in be planted can trees Certain fences. and live windbreaks ridges. or along contour crops strips between – by forests natural from to benefit communities Encouraging – is also an instance honey and insects, for harvesting fruit, part of agroforestry. important organisations The Ministry and development of Agriculture alley cropping, – notably technologies agroforestry introduced land on crop trees fruit and planting windbreaks woodlots, of adoption have the levels in 1980. However, – in Zimbabwe that District found in Goromonzi A study been negligible. crop had greater practices agroforestry adopted farmers who who than non-adopters. Those levels yields and better income and wealthier better educated adopted tended to be younger, researchers The in terms of land, assets and livestock. farmers in agroforestry educating that recommended help improve farmers could younger techniques and targeting adoption. agroforestry adoption in 7: Barriers to agroforestry Case study Zimbabwe 5 Business adaptation and infrastructure resilience The impacts of climate change will significantly affect food security, water availability and human health. These are all factors on which commercial enterprises in Zimbabwe depend. In addition, extreme events can affect infrastructure, labour, inputs and markets.

Lack of food and poor human health can lead to low employee How can Zimbabwe adapt? morale and reduced productivity. Shortages and deteriorating quality of water can reduce product quality and quantity, having consequences for profitability and growth. Water shortages will affect hydropower generation, causing electricity shortages that threaten economic development and social well-being.

Cyclones have destroyed roads and bridges in the past, thus affecting ready movement of goods and people. High ambient temperatures can cause buckling of rail lines, leading to train derailments. Businesses are vulnerable to climate change and must therefore adapt to it and mitigate its harm.

Practical steps for business

Business leaders must find ways to alleviate the impact of extreme events on their operations in the short and long term. The following steps can be taken: • Raise awareness on climate change and possible impacts on sector-specific operations • Identify climate risks such as water scarcity and floods and assess severity of impact • Identify adaptation solutions such as efficient water and power utilisation • Prioritise and develop budgets

130 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 131 5 adaptation measures adaptation Implement insurance the risks through Spread if out to find and evaluation monitoring Commission necessary and adjusting when working are measures on grid reliance heavy to reduce supply energy Diversify and efficiency energy improving This entails electricity. and heating pumping for – solar to alternatives switching on inland dams, using generation hydropower water, and developing source waste as an energy industrial biogas like technologies energy renewable water improved by applying supply Optimising water harvesting, such as rainwater measures management inputs, and considering water and re-using recycling less water require that and products processes This entails model. business concept Adopting an inclusive suppliers, chain actors – inputs all value with working among others – to promote and consumers, service providers of utilisation efficient like solutions adaptation innovative and energy water all which in concept Adopting the circular economy together to retain chain work in the consumption elements and with as long as possible for in the economy resources waste little and managing the health welfare: worker Promoting work, meals at nutritious by providing of workers welfare • • • • • • • • Knowledge sharing and learning and active and sustained and sharing and learning and active Knowledge steps. in all the above important are of stakeholders engagement that business can take Specific adaptation measures both cover businesses can take that of the measures Many and mitigation. adaptation monitoring temperatures, instituting flexible working hours 5 during times of extreme heat and installing air cooling systems that run on renewable energy sources and do not use CFC or HFC gases.

Disaster risk reduction to protect infrastructure

Zimbabwe has recently experienced violent, short-lived, How can Zimbabwe adapt? tornado-like storms which have destroyed houses, property, livestock, wildlife, crops and even lives. It has not recovered fully from tropical Cyclone Eline since it swept through the country in 2000, putting into question the country’s climate-related disaster preparedness and adaptive capacity. Researchers and practitioners have called on decision makers, policy makers and households to consider having at least one resilient house to use as shelter in times of severe storms. Some have advocated the adoption of building codes and housing standards even in rural areas where there has been the most destruction due to non-resilient infrastructure.

The power shortages of 2015–2016 following the low dam levels in Kariba demonstrated the vulnerability of Zimbabwe’s industry due to over-reliance of hydropower, which is sensitive to seasonal rainfall performance. This calls for diversification of power sources and decoupling of climate behaviour from power generation. As temperatures fluctuate from one extreme to another, the need for heating in winter and cooling in summer is becoming clearer.

Elisha Moyo 2017

132 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 133 5 Human communities to cope communities of human the resilience Strengthening to capacity their increasing change depends on climate with communities Zimbabwean function as self-supporting units. of spirit a strong with social networks used to be tight-knit leadership and indigenous knowledge Traditional cooperation. rules and cultural and traditional and respected, valued were environmental and protecting behaviour human governing the 3, over As shown in case study upheld. strictly were resources and a eroded become social systems have these traditional years has led to over- that has prevailed mentality individualistic more resources. of communal and degradation exploitation Beekeeping provides income and helps conserve forests Beekeeping provides income and helps conserve Ways will have to be found either to replace these old systems or 5 design more resilient ones. The new systems can encourage the participation and empowerment of groups, particularly of women, that were left out of decision-making processes in the past. They should also focus on strengthening household resilience. The following measures can help: • Raising awareness and informing and educating people about the causes and impacts of climate change are a crucial first step; schoolchildren, teachers and community opinion How can Zimbabwe adapt? leaders such as pastors, chiefs and headmen and business executives can play an important role • Strengthening community-based decision making and collective action while avoiding a dependency syndrome and a victim mentality • Identifying areas of vulnerability that can be exacerbated by climate change and that need to be addressed – poverty, malnutrition, disease, poor sanitation and hygiene and improved social safety nets • Developing adaptation plans and disaster risk management strategies in participation with stakeholders, especially vulnerable groups that are often left out of decision making, notably women, children and the disabled • Building on successful indigenous practices as well as new scientific approaches • Improving roads, bridges and buildings that may be susceptible to climate change hazards • Promoting green buildings that use passive cooling systems • Diversifying livelihoods into climate-resilient areas, including animal husbandry, horticulture, aquaculture and off-farm activities • Identifying and promoting household adaptation systems

134 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 135 5 climate-sensitive economic sectors particularly particularly sectors economic climate-sensitive In Buhera, Chiredzi and Chimanimani districts, high rates of high rates Chimanimani districts, and Chiredzi In Buhera, hunger chronic productivity, agricultural declining poverty, of by the effects being exacerbated are and child malnutrition waves rainfall, heat floods, heavy change. Droughts, climate the summer while dry increasing and mid-season spells are rural and end sooner. Thousands of said to start later rains are of climate by the interaction risk at being put are households over- pressure, population a fragile ecology, change with on dependence Climate-smart villages in Buhera, Chiredzi villages in Buhera, 8: Climate-smart Case study and Chimanimani base, institutional resource natural a degraded agriculture, assets. to livelihood access and limited failure the Southern International, Plan in partnership with Oxfam, of the University and Resources Indigenous for Alliance 10,000 is targeting that a project is implementing Zimbabwe, the and reduce measures adaptation to scale up households to women, particularly of rural communities, vulnerability and change. variability climate farmers, local leaders and with working has been The project villages climate-smart to develop departments government and variability understanding of climate increased with and capacity adaptive farmers’ risks. Improving associated are their livelihoods and strengthen helping them diversify climate-adapted in water, investments through achieved protection restoration, ecosystem natural farming practices, financial to inclusive access improving and management, farmers to markets. servicesand linking smallholder The partnership is also working to improve the local rainfall 5 observation network through weather and climate forecast products, an ICT-based climate information dissemination system and a tool to help extension workers support farmers to make informed decisions based on the local weather and climate forecasts.

In particular, the target communities have learnt the importance of soil water storage since this provides more than How can Zimbabwe adapt? 90% of the rural water supply and the soil is the only natural water reservoir for crops and plants. Directing available surface water into the soil and underground for use when surface supplies are limited is therefore important to boost the amount of water held in these reservoirs.

As part of its adaptation strategy, Zimbabwe would do well to rely more on subsurface reservoirs and integrated management approaches to respond to the challenges of increased demand for water and the growing unpredictability of rainfall and temperature. Managing deforestation, overgrazing, soil erosion, pollution and extraction, as well as protecting wetlands, are important strategies for boosting soil and groundwater recharge. District climate change adaptation plans should include soil and groundwater management as an important focus area.

Dr L. Unganai, Oxfam Zimbabwe

136 How can Zimbabwe adapt? 137 5 In this chapter we looked at ways in which Zimbabwean Zimbabwean in which ways at looked In this chapter we and businesses can departments, government communities, change and to adapt to climate ways develop build resilience, In the development. to achieving sustainable progress improve can Zimbabweans in which examine ways next chapter we 1 lists details Appendix mitigation. change to climate contribute projects. in adaptation involved of organisations Farmers will have to switch to more resilient livestock in future Farmers will have to switch to more resilient 5 Endnotes 1 For more about this topic, see “UNFCCC 2015 Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions”: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/ cop21/eng/07.pdf

2 UNFCCC 2007. “Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation”: https://unfccc. int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf

3 Turnbull, M. and Turvill E. 2012. Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Analysis: A Practitioner’s Guide. An Oxfam Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Resource. Oxfam International: www.africa-adapt.net/media/resources/895/ml-participatory-capacity- vulnerability-analysis-practitioners-guide-010612-en.pdf

4 Brown, D., Chanakira, R., Chatiza, K., Dhliwayo, M., Dodman, D., Masiiwa, M., How can Zimbabwe adapt? Muchadenyika, D., Mugabe, P. and Zvigadza, S. 2012. “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Zimbabwe”. IIED Climate Change Working Paper 3: http:// pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10034IIED.pdf, accessed August 2015.

5 Brooks, N., Adger W.N. and Kelly, P.M. 2005. “The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation. Global Environmental Change 15:151–163

6 Davis, R. and Hirji, R. 2014. “Climate Change and Water Resources, Planning, Development and Management”. Issues paper. World Bank and Government of Zimbabwe: http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/23839207/climate-change-water-resources- planning-development-management-zimbabwe, accessed August 2015

7 The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals replaced the Millennium Development Goals at the end of 2015

8 Brown et al. 2012

9 www.undp-alm.org/sites/default/files/downloads/focus_on_climate_change_zimbabwe_-_ april_2013.pdf

10 www.acts-net.org/programmes-projects/projects?id=35

11 http://oxfaminzimbabwe.org/index.php/strengthening-weather-and-climate-change- information-dissemination-systems-in-zimbabwe/

12 See www.fao.org/ag/ca/Training_Materials/CA_toolbox_Zimbabwe.pdf for more information

13 Nyamudeza, P. 1996. “The Effect of Growing SorghumSorghum ( bicolour) in Furrow and on the Flat at Three Populations and Three Row Widths in a Semi-Arid Region in Zimbabwe – Grain Yield Components”. Zimbabwe Journal of Agricultural Research 31:1–10

14 Zimbabwe Environmental Lawyers Association: www.zela.org

15 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007. “Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Chapter 8 – Agriculture. Climate Change 2007: Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press: www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html

16 World Bank 2012. “Climate-Smart Agriculture and the World Bank: The Facts”: http:// climatechange.worldbank.org accessed 29 January 2013

17 Conant, R. T. 2009. “Rebuilding Resilience: Sustainable Land Management for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation, Technical Report on Land and Climate Change for the Natural Resources Management and Environment Department”. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organisation Vallis, I., Parton, W.J., Keating, B.A. and Wood, A.W. 1996. “Simulation of the Effects of Trash and N Fertilizer Management on Soil Organic Matter Levels and Yields of Sugarcane.” Soil Tillage Research 38, 1–2:115–132 138 6 Mitigation options 6 for Zimbabwe

This chapter was reviewed by Dr Ndebele-Murisa, Dr Dube and Elijah Moyo, with additional material contributed by Tendayi Marowa.

Mitigation options for Zimbabwe In this chapter, we discuss mitigation – the ways in which we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and their load in the atmosphere. We present some technological ways to lessen emissions and reduce the global greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (carbon sequestration), and large-scale interventions that change the Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change (geo-engineering). We also discuss the social and economic structural transformations that need to take place for the climate change problem to be addressed effectively. We then look at Zimbabwe’s international mitigation commitments and options.

As we have already noted, the most effective strategies for Africa to deal with climate change will be solutions that combine sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation.

139 6 Chapter summaryThe Zimbabwean What does mitigation entail? 141 Global emissionscontext sources 142 6Global emissions drivers 142 Zimbabwe’s emissions 145 Energy production emissions 147 Technological mitigation solutions 150 Reducing emissions 150 Carbon sequestration 157 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe Geo-engineering 162 Social and economic transformation 164 Zimbabwe and economy-wide mitigation 166 Zimbabwe’s INDCs 166 Future energy sources for Zimbabwe 171

140 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 141 6 Conduct an energy audit of your system your of audit an energy Conduct instance system – for used in your the processes Analyse transport manufacturing, cooking, lighting, heating, for and waste and used can be produced energy that ways Identify efficiently more and consumption energy to reduce ways Identify including technologies, energy renewable introduce projects waste-to-energy non- with can be replaced that materials Identify and such as refrigerants gas alternatives, greenhouse instead of such as using compost alternatives low-energy fertiliser. inorganic be developed could system that in your elements Identify of and composting planting as carbon sinks such as tree waste organic measures the mitigation Institute 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Steps to introducing mitigation measures Steps to a system such applied can be of mitigation These principles village, suburb or farm. as a home, business, school, mitigation entail? mitigation does What prevent or reduce to efforts change involves of climate Mitigation the gas load in and the greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse technological through needs to be achieved This atmosphere. changes in the social by structural accompanied solutions the changes are systems of our societies. These and economic ecological, requires which development, of sustainable foundation the needs of to meet in order solutions social and economic of future the well-being compromising without the present generations. 6 Global emissions sources Figure 4 in chapter 1 showed that in 2010 the major sources of global greenhouse gases were energy production (24%), industry (21%), agriculture (14%) and transport (14%). The fifth assessment report (AR5) of the IPCC 1 shows that global greenhouse gas emissions rose from 27 billion tons, or 27 gigatons (Gt), in 1970 to 49 Gt in 2010. Globally, carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributes the bulk of emissions – 55% in 1970 and 65% in 2010, followed by methane (19% in 1970 and 16% in Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 2010) and nitrous oxide (7.9% in 1970 and 6.2% in 2010).

Over a period of 40 years annual global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 22 GtCO2e, which gives an average increase of 0.55 Gt CO2e per year.

Global emissions drivers

According to AR5, greenhouse gas emissions are mainly driven by energy use, population size, economic activity, lifestyle, land use patterns, technology and climate policy. Working from a global population of 7 billion and the 2010 global emissions figure of 49 GtCO2e, we get a global average of 7 tCO2e per capita, or 7,000 kgCO2e per person per year.

When reporting national greenhouse gas emissions under the UNFCCC national communications guidelines, the following categories are generally used: energy sector; industrial processes; solvents and other product use; agriculture; waste; and land use, land use change and forestry. The energy sector covers electricity production, transport and other energy emissions, and in 2010 it contributed around 49% of global emissions. 142 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 143 6 More than the mass of all the humans on the planet than the mass of all the humans More and steel of iron global production than the annual More State Buildings or 77 Empire State 2,740 Empire lead of solid Buildings made out enough elephants That’s 142,857,142 African elephants. Earth to the from on top of each other to reach stacked back and halfway Moon • • • • How much is a gigaton? is: One gigaton View of Harare with the power station in the foreground View of Harare 6 Projected emission scenarios Scientists have developed different emissions scenarios, called “representative concentration pathways” (RCPs), based on reasonable assumptions about global developmental trajectories and what could happen up to the year 2100.

From figure 24 we can see that different emissions scenarios lead to different outcomes. There are four RCPs that range from low to very high future emissions (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). At one Mitigation options for Zimbabwe extreme is RCP8.5, known as the “business-as-usual pathway”. This assumes that CO2e concentrations are allowed to continue increasing above 1,000 parts per million. This scenario leads to a projected global temperature rise of around 4°C above pre- industrial levels. At the other extreme, RCP2.6 represents a scenario in which societies try to keep global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, the goal of the Paris Agreement. This will require considerable global action to cut emissions.

The 2°C increase from present-day global average temperatures is considered the threshold at which climate change becomes “dangerous”. The 4.5 and 6.0 RCPs fall between the low and high extreme RCPs of 2.6 and 8.5.2

144

Mitigation options for Zimbabwe

145 6

scenario database in  in database scenario Full range of the WGIII AR WGIII the of range Full  RCP. RCP. RCP. RCP .  Year RCP scenarios: RCP  >        Historical emissions WGIII scenario categories: WGIII scenario  







/yr ₂ GtCO emissions Annual Zimbabwe’s emissions is very change problem to the climate contribution Zimbabwe’s global average a quarter of the are emissions per capita small. Its 20% of the global is about per capita consumption and electricity average. submission to the UNFCCC was the Third latest Zimbabwe’s was 2006. year reporting whose (TNC) Communication National due 2e, but 22,019 GgCO country’s emissions were The estimated the from removals carbon dioxide cover, of forest areas large to its land use change and forestry the land use, through atmosphere a net 2e, making Zimbabwe 83,000 GgCO at estimated sector were carbon sink. Figure 24: Annual anthropogenic emissions up to 2100 AR5 IPCC Source: Several factors affect Zimbabwe’s greenhouse gas emission levels. 6 Population and economic growth are major drivers. Accelerated urbanisation also plays a role: as people move to towns and cities, their lives and livelihoods hinge on activities that require increasing levels of energy compared to those in rural areas. Table 6 compares Zimbabwe’s greenhouse gas emissions with global emissions, while figure 25 shows the main sectors responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.

Table 6: Comparison of Zimbabwe’s emissions with the global emissions Mitigation options for Zimbabwe

Item Global position Zimbabwean position

Emissions 49 GtCO2e (2010) 0.022 GtCO2e (2006)

Relative emissions 100% Approximately 0.05% of global emissions

Approximate per-capita 7 tCO2e 1.7 tCO2e emissions

Biggest source of Energy sector (49% in Energy sector (48% in greenhouse gases 2010) 2006)

% contribution of forestry 11% in 2010 (net emitter) Net sink to greenhouse gases

Approximate electricity 3,400 600 per capita (kWh/capita)

IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Third National Communications (TNC)

146 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 147 6 (10,644) Energy 49% 3% (752) Waste 4% 44% (906) Industrial processes (9,686) Agriculture Agriculture Energy production emissions fuels the burning of fossil during gases released Greenhouse the largest are power gas – to generate oil and natural – coal, 25 shows that emissions. Figure to Zimbabwe’s contributors to contributor sector was the largest the energy in Zimbabwe this, the country gas emissions in 2006. Despite greenhouse and to meet domestic power sufficient is failing to supply and they are stations few power too are demand. There industrial lack of maintenance, and equipment handicapped by outdated leading to inefficiency and unnecessary gas greenhouse emissions. 2e) Figure 25: Zimbabwe’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 (GgCO to National Communication 2016. Third Government of Zimbabwe Source: UNFCCC 6 Rural energy emissions Few people in rural areas have access to electricity and rely on fuelwood – and in some areas charcoal – for cooking, lighting and heating as well as for small-scale processing, brick making and agricultural activities, notably tobacco curing. Coal is used for large-scale tobacco curing and firewood for smaller-scale curing.

The harvesting and use of trees as an energy source is unsustainable, and little effort is being put into replacing trees in Mitigation options for Zimbabwe the form of woodlots or protective regeneration of natural forests. Moreover, the increasing incidence of runaway wildfires plays a major role in destruction and degradation of forests.

Urban energy emissions

Most urban families use electricity for cooking, heating and lighting, but due to the erratic supply, many households have turned fuelwood as a supplementary source. Those who can afford it use liquefied petroleum gas, solar systems or generators using petrol or diesel.

Zimbabwe’s road, rail and air transport systems run on petroleum derivatives. Imported petrol is blended with ethanol produced by a biofuel plant attached to the main sugar refinery in Chisumbanje. The plant generates electricity to run its operations and to supply the local community. The blending of ethanol with petrol contributes to reducing Zimbabwe’s greenhouse gas emissions from imported liquid fuels.

Figure 26 shows that around 55% of Zimbabwe’s electricity is generated using clean sources and 2% is from renewable energy sources (excluding large hydro).

148 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 149 6 Zimbabwe is a developing nation which is not only improving per improving is not only which nation is a developing Zimbabwe to modern and sustainable also access but to energy access capita (MW) 300 megawatts additional By 2018 an of power. sources grid. electricity added to the national will be of hydropower binding commitment has no internationally Zimbabwe Although been adopting renewable has emissions up to 2020, it to reduce efficiency. energy and improving sources and cleaner energy held back significant have financial challenges However, discuss this We pathways. to low-carbon development transition in this chapter. in detail later Most rural Zimbabweans use firewood for cooking Most rural 6 60

40

20 Contribution (%) Contribution

Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 0 Large hydro Small hydro Large coal Small coal Biomass

Figure 26: Contribution of energy sources in electricity production in Zimbabwe in 2015 Source: Government of Zimbabwe 2016. Third National Communication to UNFCCC

Technological mitigation solutions

Technological climate change mitigation solutions include methods for reducing the amount of greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere, facilitating the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (carbon sequestration) and manipulating the Earth’s natural systems in order to reduce the impacts on climate change (geo-engineering). These measures are summarised in table 7.

Reducing emissions

The commitments submitted by the parties to the Paris Agreement to date will reduce by no more than a third of the 150 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 151 6 levels required to achieve the 2°C target by 2030, risking warming the 2°C target to achieve required levels of a UNFCC facilitative of up to 3.4°C. One of the objectives among the ambition dialogue to be held in 2018 is to raise need to be investments meet the 2°C goal, massive parties. To in low-carbon and climate-resilient decades made in the coming Agency, Energy to the International According infrastructure. US$48 trillion to US$53 trillion investment a cumulative globally and energy supply energy will be needed by 2035 to strengthen 3 efficiency. gases being released of greenhouse the amounts Reducing of both a major restructuring will require the atmosphere into is already societies, and this process and developing industrialised on shifting towards beginning. Societies will need to focus such as solar, renewables including sources, energy alternative changes will need to and biomass. Other important wind, wave Alternatives to firewood as a fuel source must be sought Alternatives to firewood as a fuel source must include the following: better energy efficiency; finding alternative 6 materials such as refrigerants; improving systems of industrial, agricultural and food production and consumption; and greening cities.

Table 7: Summary of technological options for mitigation

Reducing emissions Carbon sequestration Geo-engineering

Alternative energy Biological processes: Carbon dioxide sources: Renewables, forest protection, removal: burial of such as solar, wind, wave, agroforestry, wetlands, biochar, reforestation and Mitigation options for Zimbabwe hydro and biogas, nuclear regenerative agriculture, ocean fertilisation energy and natural gas ocean fertilising and Solar radiation (fracking) seaweed farming management: space- Alternative materials: Artificial methods: based sunshades, cloud- replacing HFCs in modified power stations, brightening, reflective refrigerators and air burial of crop residue, or aerosols, growing conditioning with biochar, ocean storage, pale-coloured crops, non-GHGs and finding geological sequestration and reflective roofing alternatives to cement (storage in rock), materials Transformation of manufacture of mineral industrial processes: carbonates, industrial alternative products, sinks such as eco-cement alternative inputs, and chemical scrubbers recycling or re-using (artificial trees) waste and increasing efficiency Transformation of agriculture and food systems: reducing deforestation and land clearing, conservation farming and regenerative agriculture, improved livestock production and transition to greater consumption of plant- based foods Green cities: improved public transport, electric vehicles, alternative energy, green buildings and waste management

Sources: Project Drawdown: www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by- rank; Conserve Energy Future: www.conserve-energy-future.com/carbon- sequestration.php; Oxford Geoengineering Programme: www.geoengineering. ox.ac.uk/what-is-geoengineering/what-is-geoengineering/ 152 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 153 6 states that that 5 states Alternative energy sources Alternative that one of the major ways is sources energy Finding alternative a involve this could change. Ideally climate fight can the world has which energy, renewable towards global economy shift of the PV), wind, (solar photovoltaic solar low carbon emissions such as transport for solutions and biogas. Energy energy, and wave hydro a major are aeroplanes and particularly will be crucial, as cars emissions. gas to greenhouse contributor of renewable in the uptake been made gains have Unprecedented in China leading a revolution in the past decade, with energy British by a report to According energy. of cheap solar supply of global 8% nearly for now account renewables Petroleum, it is put much, but not sound like This may generation. electricity to contributed renewables find that we when perspective into in 2016.4 generation in global power almost 40% of the growth Network Policy Energy by the Renewable A report in set new records capacity power installed renewable newly (GW) added. This raised the global total 161 gigawatts 2016, with around for PV accounting solar to 2015, with by almost 9% relative and 34% at by wind power followed 47% of the total additions consecutive for the fifth report notes that 15.5%. The at hydropower was almost capacity power in new renewable investment year The capacity. fuel-generating in fossil the investment double than annually capacity power renewable now adds more world Other fuels combined. all fossil from adds in net new capacity it produced of electricity the cost that are the report from highlights 2016 was the third and that PV and wind is falling rapidly by solar fuels to fall. fossil emissions from for in a row year Biofuels are made from fresh plant or other organic materials, 6 including human and animal waste. They include bio-ethanol, biodiesel and biogas. Although the burning of biofuels releases greenhouse gases, growing the plants from which biofuels are made removes CO2 from the atmosphere. Critics of biofuels argue that they do not make a meaningful reduction to greenhouse gas emissions and that diverting land, water and other resources to produce them threatens food security, particularly in developing countries. Mitigation options for Zimbabwe

Some analysts argue that although rapid, the growth in renewables is not fast enough to replace fossil fuels as sources for power generation in time to achieve the 2°C target for the Paris Agreement. In addition, developing ways to store energy from renewables when, for example, the sun is not shining or there is no wind, is proving to be a major obstacle. The technology for energy-efficient batteries is improving and it is hoped that solar, wind and wave energy sources will soon become widely available and viable.

Subsidies for fossil fuels or electricity from coal power plants tend to make renewable energy projects unattractive. Some developed countries are building new coal power plants that are more energy-efficient, release fewer emissions and remove CO2 from the atmosphere through carbon capture storage. Most developing countries, Zimbabwe included, have not embraced the new and expensive technology.

154 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 155 6 For more information visit http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-14432401 For more Nuclear energy and fracking Nuclear energy power gas and nuclear natural countries In most developed they produce Although generation. in power coal replacing are and carry not popular they are than coal, emissions fewer hydraulic often involves gas extraction major risks. Natural environmental can cause fracturing, or “fracking”, which during of water amounts use of huge damage through pollution potential through health extraction and endanger by fracking chemicals.Nuclear reserves water of underground power after a nuclear unpopular increasingly became power in March damaged was severely in Fukushima, Japan, plant leaks that radiation caused The accident 2011 by a tsunami. their homes and to leave than 100,000 people more forced the danger This highlighted the Pacific Ocean. contaminated which events, extreme from face plants power nuclear which change. to climate due to worsen likely are Alternative materials greenhouse to reduce one of the main ways Surprisingly, use for we that the materials gas emissions is to substitute used in the cooling the chemicals Refrigerants, refrigerants. a history of have and refrigerators, systems of air conditioners Chloroflurocarbons problems. serious environmental causing used widely were (HCFCs) (CFCs) and hydrochloroflurocarbons destroying they were that was discovered it until as refrigerants protects that in the atmosphere – the layer the ozone layer ultraviolet of the Sun’s the harmful effects on Earth from life under the Montreal out phased were CFCs and HCFCs radiation. them, used to replace the gases in 1987. Unfortunately, Protocol hydroflurocarbons (HFCs), turn out to be one of the most potent 6 greenhouse gases, with a capacity 1,000 to 9,000 times greater than carbon dioxide to warm the atmosphere.6 Under the Kigali Accord signed in 2016 HFCs will be phased out by 2028. Some analysts claim that phasing out HFCs could avoid emissions of 87 GtCO2e by 2050 and regard it as the most effective way to reduce the greatest amount of emissions.7

The global cement industry contributes more than 5% of CO2 emissions annually. Finding different ways to manufacture Mitigation options for Zimbabwe cement and using different materials in cement production could avoid 6.7 GtCO2e by 2050.8

Agriculture and food systems

Food production and other farming activities contribute hugely to greenhouse gas emissions. Firstly, land clearance for agriculture and other uses contributes 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Crop and livestock production uses inputs such as fertilisers and other chemicals, animal feeds and mechanised equipment, all of which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Even ploughing releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When crops grow they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere, but when they are harvested they release a considerable amount of CO2. Livestock production contributes to the release of methane and other greenhouse gases.

Much land under cultivation is devoted to producing livestock feed as the global demand for meat increases. Intensive poultry and pork production and cattle feedlots are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. In Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming, author Paul Hawken notes that “If cattle were their own nation, they would be the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases”. He estimates 156 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 157 6 livestock accounts for nearly 15% of annual global global 15% of annual nearly for accounts raising livestock that more an even adds that 9 Hawken gas emissions. greenhouse the from emissions greenhouse to global contributor important of waste: one-third is food production than livestock system food waste food and reducing consumed is never is produced that food 2e by 2050. GtCO 26.2 avoid by 50% could Greening cities gas emissions. of greenhouse major contributors are areas Urban and goods between people systems for transport Transforming change climate the addressing will be crucial to cities and within to as mass switching such solutions require This will problem. by road, mass transport systems and improving electric vehicles of buildings is also and lighting cooling rail, air and sea. Heating, new through will need to be addressed that a major contributor methods and Construction sources. and energy technologies and production Waste will need to be revolutionised. materials need to be that of major concern other areas are management available, is of these problems many for The technology addressed. as economic as well measures and policy needs legal it but on a uptake to encourage in order place into to be put incentives mass scale. Carbon sequestration can be natural the atmosphere from carbon removing for Methods and of forests conservation methods include Natural or artificial. practices. and agricultural wetlands Forests and wetlands in particular and trees chapters, plants in previous As mentioned of sources they become 2, but sinks of CO natural important are atmospheric CO2 when they are cut down or burnt. Therefore, 6 clearing land and cutting down trees for fuel and timber releases CO2 into the atmosphere.

Forests and other vegetation affect climate and weather patterns in other ways too, for example by reducing wind speed, cooling surface temperatures and increasing atmospheric humidity.

Mitigation options for Zimbabwe Case study 9: Termites teach us how to build solar air- conditioned cities

As temperatures rise in Zimbabwe’s cities due to climate change, there will be greater requirements for ways to cool buildings to enable people to live and work comfortably. Conventional air conditioning requires a huge amount of electricity – three times more than that needed to heat buildings in cold countries. The extra power needed to drive air conditioners and the HFC gases used as refrigerants are major contributors to global warming.

But there are other ways to cool buildings that save huge amounts of energy and do not require conventional air conditioning. Award-winning Zimbabwean architect Mick Pearce designed the Eastgate complex in Harare in 1995 using a groundbreaking passive-cooling approach that he adapted by observing the way that termites cool their nests. Like termite mounds, Eastgate uses chimneys to expel heat from the building at night while drawing cool night air into the building through a system of cavities and air passages. The uneven surface of the building, small windows, low wattage lighting systems and thick walls help prevent the building from heating up too quickly during the day. The design of

158 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 159 6 Eastgate complex, Harare Eastgate has reduced external power consumption by 90% by consumption power external reduced has Eastgate full air conditioning. with compared for responsible are buildings present “at that says Pearce from mainly consumption, energy total 40% of humanity’s at least by reduced can be This percentage air conditioning. trees design systems. Planting building half using adaptive with our buildings and roads painting along our streets, for our obsession up by giving and colours light-reflective outside temperatures the ambient reduce glass facades could as forms to 10°C. By using our built the buildings by 7°C a power become could each building collectors, energy solar supply network an integrated into feeding by day, generator is needed.” power grid where passive combine on buildings that is working Pearce Today systems. He and water-harvesting production energy cooling, a low with building materials in promoting is also involved carbon footprint. 6 REDD+ The UNFCCC mechanism called “reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation” (REDD+) permits developed countries to pay developing countries to offset their emissions by giving financial rewards for conserving existing forests. Such payment schemes have been criticised because it is difficult for enforcers to see how loopholes can be plugged. For example, some of the schemes would conceivably allow people to earn money by cutting down natural forests, Mitigation options for Zimbabwe releasing huge amounts of CO2, and replanting them with exotic trees. Other problems associated with the REDD+ schemes are: 11 • The difficulty of measuring how much carbon an area of forest can store and calculating how the level would change if emission levels continued to increase • Difficulties in designing effective conservation and management projects that ensure that less carbon is emitted • Ensuring that communities that live in and off the forests are not exploited • Ensuring that preventing deforestation in one place does not encourage it in other areas instead, a problem known as “leakage”

These challenges have been discussed at international climate negotiations and it is hoped that an effective REDD+ mechanism will come out of it. Some examples of REDD+ programmes around the world can be found at www.un-redd. org/ and www.coderedd.org/about-redd/

160 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 161 6 When vegetation is cleared on a large scale it can lead to changes changes lead to can Whenscale it on a large cleared is vegetation is land that The more and local climate. patterns in weather the fuel and timber, mining, housing, agriculture, for cleared down, cut are trees change. As to climate contribute we more their tissues are in stored were that of carbon amounts large and other forests The more the atmosphere. into released climate advance the less we or preserve, plant we vegetation change. in role a crucial play 2 and 5, wetlands As noted in chapters in flood and of water and quality the quantity maintaining is also an wetlands conservation of natural The reduction. shown to be been as they have measure mitigation important methane and nitrous carbon dioxide, sinks for natural important 10 oxide. Agriculture already practices systems through agricultural Transforming chapter, such asclimate-smart in the adaptation mentioned carbon to reduced can lead not only and agroforestry, agriculture carbon systems into agricultural can also transform emissions but sinks. zero encourages agriculture, regenerative Another approach, avoidance soil fertility, improved crops, of cover tillage, a diversity crop and multiple fertilisers, of pesticides and synthetic to the soil in matter on adding organic 12 The emphasis rotations. emissions. in the soil and reduce helps to sink carbon these ways the burial sequester carbon are can Other farming methods that is that is a type of charcoal and biochar. Biochar residues of crop In this of oxygen. in the absence residues made by burning crop can act as a that structure biochar locks up carbon in a stable way and a carbon sink.13 soil fertiliser 6 Artificial trees “Carbon scrubbers” are devices that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it using various technologies. Commonly known as artificial trees, these devices have already been installed in some cities across the globe. The technology is extremely expensive at around $350,000 per tree, but the cost is expected to drop rapidly as the uptake increases.14

Mitigation options for Zimbabwe Geo-engineering

Geo-engineering involves large-scale interventions in the Earth’s climate system to reduce global warming. Its proponents justify various technologies to manipulate the climate by pointing to evidence that a dangerous tipping point may be reached that leads to an irreversible change in global climate. One trigger for such a tipping point would be the shrinking of sea ice, releasing huge amounts of methane stored beneath the ice. Geo- engineering is seen by some as a quick way to buy us time until we can put longer-term measures in place. Others argue that geo-engineering itself could have unforeseen side-effects that are irreversible and could cause more damage than they address.

Because there are substantial economic costs and risks associated with these methods, most scientists see geo-engineering as a last resort rather than as a substitute for other types of mitigation. Some geo-engineering methods are likely to be used in combination with other measures.

Geo-engineering can be divided into two categories: carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management.

162 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 163 6 Carbon dioxide removal Carbon dioxide large- reforestation, large-scale involves removal Carbon dioxide a method of using fertilisation, scale burial of biochar and ocean of microscopic the growth to feed and other nutrients urea iron, the atmosphere. absorb carbon from that marine organisms Solar radiation management the of reducing form the takes management radiation Solar the Earth’s – reaching heat –and thus of sunlight amount that surfaces large creating include Such methods can surface. a space- for example, the Earth – from away sunlight reflect – using pale-coloured or dust based sunshade using mirrors Other crops. pale-coloured and growing materials road or roofs or to spray water sea- clouds with to brighten suggestions are the atmosphere. chemicals into reflective spray All Zimbabweans need to recognise the value of trees and cultivate a culture to recognise the value of trees and cultivate All Zimbabweans need of tree planting 6 Social and economic transformation Governments in many developed countries have offered financial incentives to industry and business, including agribusiness, to reduce emissions. This marks the beginning of structural transformations to society that have become known as the green economy. The United Nations Environment Programme has defined the green economy as “one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. It is low-carbon, Mitigation options for Zimbabwe resource-efficient, and socially inclusive.” 15

The green economy

The green economy is taking off in developed countries. Measures have been put in place to reduce demand for travel and make available a wider range of options for low-emission private and public transport. Batteries and fuel cells are powering vehicles and the appetite for the new technologies is increasing. Urban planners are becoming more emissions-conscious and building standards are being improved to help lower emissions. Individuals are being encouraged to reduce their energy demands, their consumption patterns and waste.16

The circular economy

Economists realise that a focus on economic growth has caused many social and environmental problems and are starting to rethink the basic principles on which societies are based. One approach is the circular economy, which focuses on renewable energy sources and aims to build economic, natural and social capital. It avoids the conventional linear industrial model of exhausting resources in the manufacturing process and creating waste as a by-product. Instead, the circular economy restores and 164 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 165 6 regenerates resources, keeping materials in use for as long as in use for materials keeping resources, regenerates other for material waste as a basic raw re-using while possible, 17 processes. Empowering women been shown to make have Other structural changes to society that gas emissions are greenhouse to reducing contributions great services. planning to family access and improving girls educating in turn which growth, population Both methods help reduce gas emissions.18 greenhouse reduces Baobab tees grow in arid areas and produce nutritious, high value fruit Baobab tees grow in arid areas and produce 6 Zimbabwe and economy- wide mitigation

The energy sector is the biggest contributor to the emissions that drive climate change, yet it is key for economic development and the welfare of populations. Like many developing countries, Zimbabwe submitted an energy-sector INDCs mitigation target to the UNFCCC, which will be upgraded to an economy-wide target in the future. This option was offered to developing countries, Mitigation options for Zimbabwe while developed countries were required to submit economy-wide targets.

A baseline analysis of the energy sector greenhouse gas emissions revealed that Zimbabwe’s annual emissions declined between 2000–2008, due to difficulties of extracting and delivering coal. The energy sector emissions were dominated by energy industries, which contributed around 50%. Agriculture and commercial and residential contributions accounted for 20%, with manufacturing industries and construction contributing 14% and transport contributing 12%. Based on this, mitigation options were investigated that are in line with national development plans and affordable. For a detailed look at some of Zimbabwe’s mitigation options, visit “Climate Change Mitigation Studies in Zimbabwe” at www.climatechange.org.zw/sites/default/files/ publications/Mitigation.pdf.

Zimbabwe’s INDCs

In September 2015 Zimbabwe submitted its INDCs, with a mitigation target to reduce energy sector greenhouse gas per capita by 33% below business-as-usual by 2030. This submission was conditional, subject to the availability of cheaper, better funding. For details about Zimbabwe’s NDC strategy, download 166 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 167 6 livestock livestock crop and crop of 19 agriculture in the form of in the form agriculture climate-smart Implementing and scientific indigenous merging and support, technologies intensification sustainable knowledge, systems and commercialisation warning early through to hazards resilience Developing climate- to the economy, approach systems, an integrated markets and enabling insurance indexed water-harvesting, through management Better water storage, better and groundwater surface improved better use and conservation, water efficient monitoring, management and extension and biodiversity research vulnerability risk through agricultural Reducing models and strengthening response assessments, services and hydrological meteorological and education – research, approaches Cross-sectoral for support policies, gender-responsive awareness, agroforestry, sustainable promoting groups, vulnerable and diversifying capacity power enhancing hydroelectric agriculture from away livelihoods • • • • • Climate Change Management Management Change Climate the from submission the INDCs The www.climatechange.org.zw/. at website Department resilience is seeking to build Zimbabwe that explains document in development ensuring sustainable change while to climate national and vulnerability change climate its of recognition to a low- commitment Zimbabwe’s highlights It circumstances. actions mitigation instituting pathway, carbon development enhancing socio-economic emissions while help reduce will that also notes that document The livelihoods. and improving growth such as energy, renewable for has a vast potential Zimbabwe efficiency energy with combined which, and solar, hydropower Zimbabwe’s constitute sound projects, and other environmentally INDCs. includes: which component an adaptation contains The document The mitigation component states that: 6 • Zimbabwe’s goal for emission through mitigation is to reduce energy-sector GHG emissions per person by 33% below projected business-as-usual by 2030 • In 2000 national emissions were 26,996 GtCO2.e, or 0.045% of global emissions • Zimbabwe is a net carbon sink with high sequestration capacity from its forests that cover 45% of total land area

Tables 8a and b list some measures proposed in the INDCs Mitigation options for Zimbabwe document to reduce emissions and their estimated cost.

Table 8a: Main actions intended to reduce emissions in GtCO2.e by 2030 and their implementation cost

Project GtCO2.e in 2030 Indicative cost ($ millions)

Ethanol blending 202 100

Solar water heaters 179 1,230

Energy-efficiency improvement 1,278 60

Increasing hydro in our energy mix 15,316 5,000

Refurbishment and electrification of the rail 341 1,106 system

Sub-total 1 17,316 7,496

Table 8b: Other key actions and their implementation cost

Project Indicative cost ($ millions)

Coal-bed methane power 1,000

Solar-powered off-grids 3,000

168 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 169 6 – industry, – industry, 500 5,000 1,000 1,050 37,000 48,550 55,796 ($ millions) Indicative cost Indicative Replacing incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent fluorescent compact bulbs with incandescent Replacing 42 MW saving 164,654 houses, lamps in over efficiency and energy improving for companies Rewarding carbon footprint reducing from capacity generating station in Kariba power Increase to be 1,050 MW 666 MW to 750 MW in 2003 and is expected in 2018 gas as an the use of liquefied petroleum Promoting to electricity alternative of at biogas digesters, a target institutional Constructing least 1,250 digesters by 2030 projects micro-hydro Developing lighting street solar Introducing • • • • • • • Project Integrated waste management Changing thermal power station technologies Changing thermal the transport system Reviewing REDD+ implementation to curing tobacco Sustainable energy alternatives Sub-total 2 TOTAL FOR MITIGATION INDCs document in the INDCs document mentioned initiatives Some clean energy are: shows the projected the INDCs document, from 27, taken Figure a business-as-usual scenario emissions trajectories with measures. mitigation strong to one with compared target mitigation an economy-wide needs to prepare Zimbabwe all sectors ­ gas emissions from greenhouse involving agriculture, waste and forestry. Categories with potential are: 6 • Transformations in agriculture (climate-smart agriculture) relating to alternative energy sources, soil management and livestock management • Improved solid waste disposal • Improved mining processes for metals and mineral products

In order to implement these measures, everyone in the nation must take responsibility for the problem. Thus, the private sector, public sector and communities must begin to implement the Mitigation options for Zimbabwe various policies, strategies and options available. Zimbabwe must also find ways to mobilise cheaper and better finance (green finance), required for green growth. See chapter 7 for details of green finance.

  Per capita emissions kg  BAU 

 



  Per capita emissions kg  with mitigation 



                

Figure 27: Zimbabwe’s mitigation INDCs target Source: Climate Change Management Department website: www. climatechange.org.zw/

170 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 171 6 The national power supply and generation power on coal-fired dependence Reducing substantially by investing generation hydroelectricity precarious forward. is the obvious way alternatives energy in renewable Photo: Macpherson Photographers sources for Zimbabwe energy Future Solar energy is becoming affordable for many rural families for many rural is becoming affordable Solar energy However, wind energy, small-scale hydroelectricity plants, solar 6 power (both solar PV and solar thermal used to heat water), biogas and similar energy solutions are beset with technical problems and cannot compete with conventional power generation methods on many levels. At the very least, switching from coal- fired power to natural gas would be a more climate-friendly option given that Zimbabwe has large methane deposits. Other fuel sources investigated are large hydropower and coal-bed natural gas. However, all such alternatives require considerable financial investment. Mitigation options for Zimbabwe

Solar power

Zimbabwe’s warm, dry climate offers tremendous potential to exploit solar power for electricity generation and heating water in urban and rural households. The major disadvantage is that the equipment is imported and prohibitively expensive. However, the cost of solar appliances is declining steadily and could be made more affordable if the government were to scrap import tariffs. Large solar farms have recently been developed in several African countries, notably Mauritania, Ghana and South Africa. The auction bidding system has seen energy prices fall as low as 2.5 cents/kWh in the Middle East and 6 cents/kWh in Zambia.

Biogas

Biogas, or methane, is another source of renewable energy. Although biogas is not as clean as solar power, the advantage is that the digesters run on waste products. The technology is slowly being taken up in Zimbabwe, but has yet to reach its full potential. Case study 10 looks in detail at a recent programme to promote biogas as a domestic fuel source.

172 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 173 6 Source: www.newsday.co.zw/2015/05/08/with-biogasnothing-goes-to- Source: waste/ Case Study 10: Zimbabwe’s domestic biogas programme 10: Zimbabwe’s Case Study and development, and power of energy The ministries the development, and irrigation mechanisation agriculture, Development Netherlands the Agency, Electrification Rural for Institute the Humanist and HIVOs, Organisation to promote in a programme collaborating are Cooperation, sustainable, aim is to provide domestic biogas digesters. The in 67,000 lighting and cooking for energy clean and reliable in 2015 and uses out rolled is being The project households. and disseminating in promoting approach a market-driven biogas technology. of methane and mainly biogas is a mixture works: it How organic when as a by-product is created It carbon dioxide. A biogas digester conditions. in airless decomposes material such material organic of a tank in which consists basically to produce and fermented water with is mixed dung as cow The and lighting. cooking for can be used methane that one end at digested slurry is pushed out and water of dung fertiliser. of the digester and can be used as high-quality emissions and uses minimal carbon dioxide burns with Biogas digesters project The locally. available readily are that products $800 and $2,000 to build. between cost Improved stoves urban families in Zimbabwe most rural families and many Since need to equip rural homes we ideally cooking, for on fuelwood rely methods. biogas or solar using electricity, to cook facilities with However, these methods have disadvantages for the Zimbabwean 6 context. Most rural homes do not have access to electricity. Rural families are not used to paying for fuel or for stoves, and it will take some time to introduce such systems. While solar cookers are good for boiling, frying and roasting food, they are not ideal for cooking sadza, the staple. Besides, solar cookers work only when there is sunlight and are no good for producing evening meals. The biogas systems available today need large amounts of material to produce biogas and thus are better suited to institutions such as schools or hospitals. They are also expensive. Mitigation options for Zimbabwe Modern technological options are being investigated in an initiative on energy and water efficiency being run by theClimate Change Management Department in partnership with the Climate Technology Centre and Network and the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).20

Improved stoves are being promoted in the short term, although they also have disadvantages (see case study 11). Given the important role of forests in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change, it is crucial that fewer trees are cut down for fuel. Several organisations have been promoting such stoves in the developing world to improve the lot of countless women who walk far each day to fetch firewood, to reduce deforestation and land degradation and to lower the health risks of women and children exposed to excessive wood smoke.

174 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 175 6 NGOs, but whose uptake was uptake whose but NGOs, Source: Makonese, T., Chikowore, G. & Annegarn, H.J. 2011. “Potential 2011. G. & Annegarn, H.J. Chikowore, T., Makonese, Source: presented Paper in Zimbabwe”. Cookstoves of Improved and Prospects South Africa: Cape Town, conference, of Energy at the Domestic Use https://ujdigispace.uj.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10210/10759/Makonese,%20 Chikowore%26%20Annegarn,%202011.pdf?sequence=1 Case Study 11: Challenges with improved stoves in stoves improved with 11: Challenges Study Case Zimbabwe stoves of energy-efficient in promotion advance A notable by the Development the development was in Zimbabwe in the of Zimbabwe of the University Centre Technology uses less stove metal This efficient stove. 1980s of the Tsotso less smoke time and produces cooking improves firewood, damage tends to the stove However, fire. than a cooking popular. become pots and did not cooking promoted, been have of other stoves a number then Since disseminated was widely which the Chingwa stove, including and Energy of Department the by was introduced which the Yugen, such as stoves Mud limited. also failed to the kitchen, outside and is built in Plumtree Programme Energy Nations the United on. A survey for catch no longer in use and most are stoves most of these that found to using open fires. reverted have Zimbabweans appears to be stoves of improved The main obstacle to uptake stoves as conventional to make as much twice they cost that housewives many parts. Moreover, they lack spare and that resource available as a freely wood regard use stoves who in energy speed than in cooking advantage and see greater campaign social marketing a would seem that It efficiency. efficient more need to be adopted in tandem with would wider parts to achieve of spare availability design and greater stoves. of improved acceptance Case study 12: Rapid uptake of industrial energy and water 6 efficiency in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe has already started to experience water scarcity, which affects industrial production and energy sectors. Although most Zimbabwean companies claim to be energy- and water-efficient, there is limited monitoring and measurement of water and energy use. The practices of energy auditing, water footprinting and systematic emission reduction programmes are rare in most companies except for Mitigation options for Zimbabwe the purposes of meeting regulations.

A green industry initiative by the UNIDO in collaboration with the Business Council for Sustainable Development Zimbabwe and the government of Zimbabwe offers opportunities for achieving inclusive and sustainable industrial development through minimising energy intensity and water consumption in manufacturing enterprises.

The project will address both climate change mitigation and adaptation by promoting industrial energy and water efficiency, emissions reduction and renewable energy technologies, including waste-to-energy projects.

To facilitate the project, the Climate Technology Centre and Network will: • Give technical assistance in chemical and waste-water management • Support industrial energy and water audits for 10 demonstration companies to determine resource productivity of Zimbabwean firms • Help assess needs for development and implementation of ISO 50001 energy management systems

176 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 177 6 water and water of the importance of awareness Raise resource and management water mainstreaming in business strategy efficiency to enable facility industry a green networking Establish management knowledge and exchange information water and efficient efficiency energy in industrial utilisation Implementing and maintaining an environmental environmental an and maintaining Implementing system management and statutory legislation requirements with Complying • • • • The project is intended to improve corporate capacity to capacity corporate to improve is intended The project bringing about efficiency, energy and implement develop gas emissions and in greenhouse reduction a significant change on selected of climate minimising the impacts of the competitiveness also aims to improve It industries. sectors selected industrial in enterprises small and medium savings. resource of result as a their profitability and increase www.ctc-n.org/technical- visit of the project, details For assistance/projects/technical-assistance-piloting-rapid- uptake-industrial-energy United Refineries Limited (URL) Bulawayo is a leading (URL) Bulawayo Limited Refineries United and hygiene of brands in personal care, producer innovative ethos is corporate Part of its products. agriculture value-added harming without can do business successfully it the belief that to an environmental URL is committed the environment. system based on: management Case study 13: United Refineries leads the way towards a Refineries leads the way towards Case study 13: United circular economy pertaining to the environment 6 • Engaging in strategies and research to conserve both renewable and non-renewable natural resources • Minimising waste and re-using and recycling as much as possible • Applying the principles of continuous improvement to minimise air, water, noise and land pollution at its premises and reducing impacts from its operations on the environment and local community • Communicating openly on environmental issues with Mitigation options for Zimbabwe employees and relevant stakeholders • Ensuring that employees at all levels receive appropriate training in reducing waste, separating waste materials and in other aspects of environmental management • Assessing in advance the environmental impacts of any new processes or products it intends to introduce

Turning waste into riches

In 2015 the safety and health manager of the company introduced waste separation. Cardboard waste is collected by National Waste Collectors, a recycling company, and Petricozim collects plastics for recycling. Some of the leftovers from the company canteen are given to employees as pet food. The rest of the degradable matter is composted and used to fertilise lawns and trees on the premises. This helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

URL is the country’s second largest cooking oil firm and can process 8,000 tons of cotton and soya oil seeds per month. The protein-rich seed cake, a by-product, is sold as livestock feed. Product synergy between production companies is an important measure in curbing waste and increases the

178 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 179 6 company’s income. The company also reduces its waste by re- waste by its reduces also company The income. company’s the oil refining is added during soda Caustic it. of using much oil is washed with neutral the when removed and the residues tarred used to clean the is effluent resulting The hot water. and machinery than being rather on the premises walkways filters interceptor drains. A water municipal into released Phekiwe the flows into that water ensuring that the effluent, chemicals. The small and harmful of oil residues is free River municipal treatment flows back to the that of water amount to treat. and inexpensive is filtered plant called soap stock, by-product a produces process refining The soap. The soap waste, to make material is used as a raw which a substance lye, contains in dams on the premises contained and is harmful to humans soda, that caustic rich in corrosive settles and liquid soap In the dams the lye the environment. to make and re-used the top to be collected at remain residues detergents industrial used to make are oil. Some lyes cooking and to help clean the URL plant. energy-saving policy Applications of URL’s LEDs to with been replaced and bulbs have lights Fluorescent in a specific direction, light usage. LEDs emit energy reduce and heat light which emits illumination, fluorescent unlike efficiently. more and energy LEDs use light in all directions. automatic with replaced were switches of the gangway Most and electricity energy further reducing switches, day-night starting, when a high current expenses. Factory motors draw energy. less use much so URL is installing soft starters that sheets roofing transparent have plants and The warehouses electric additional the need for without lighting to improve lighting. All these measures aid in climate change mitigation as they 6 drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. The company continues to improve operations to lessen environmental impacts.

Sibonisiwe Ngubeni, third-year environmental science and health student, National University of Science and Technology, and an intern at URL Bulawayo Mitigation options for Zimbabwe Energy efficiency improvement

There is great potential in Zimbabwe to upgrade power generation and industrial equipment and machinery. The main obstacles are a lack of enforcing legislation and financial incentives, a lack of finance and uncertainty about the future of the economy. Part of a sustainable approach to mitigating the effects of climate change is to reduce the global demand for energy by drawing attention to how much energy is wasted and how excessive energy consumption harms the environment and climate. However, mindsets are slow to change in developed countries and scant effort has been made to reduce energy consumption in Zimbabwe.

Reducing emissions through forests

Like most other African countries, Zimbabwe has no binding emissions targets. However, all UNFCCC signatories are expected to develop nationally appropriate mitigation actions, or NAMAs, which will be financed through instruments such as the clean development mechanisms set up by developed nations.

One way that Zimbabwe and many other developing countries contribute to mitigation is through addressing land-use change and forestry issues. As this new opportunity presents itself, 180 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 181 6 forests as a to see their forests should be encouraged Zimbabweans of climate the effects mitigates not only asset that valuable In support of income. to generate is also a means change but forestry the national to review is vital it in Zimbabwe REDD+ has been carried out country needs assessment A REDD+ policy. Change Management the Climate and can be downloaded from resources www.climatechange.org.zw/our at website Department Conserving our forests is an important mitigation measure Conserving Case Study 14: Zimbabwe’s REDD+ pilot

6 Zimbabwe joined the REDD+ programme in 2011 and has begun building capacity to exploit opportunities from conserving its 15.6 million ha of forests to limit emissions, create income and improve livelihoods. Carbon Green Africa in partnership with South Pole Carbon Asset Management has implemented an ambitious private REDD+ project covering 750,000 ha of forest in Binga, Mbire, Nyaminyami and Hurungwe. The project aims to remove 52 million tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere in 30 years. In return the Mitigation options for Zimbabwe communities involved are meant to benefit from: • Support for conservation agriculture • Sustainable honey production and links to markets • Education and awareness campaigns • Fire prevention programmes • Alternative, low-emission brick-making production

Rural district councils in the project areas are given direct funding, a portion of which is conditionally tied to community development projects and aimed at mitigating disasters. However, the project is hamstrung because benefits are not reaching the target communities and a lack of buyers on the international carbon trading market has led to low prices for REDD credits, known as offsets or carbon units measured in tonnes of CO2 equivalents.

Based on the Carbon Green Africa’s estimates, Zimbabwe could sequester 1,000 tCO2e by preserving its 15.6 million ha of national forest. This puts the value of Zimbabwe’s forests at between $1 billion and $4 billion depending on the average unit price of CO2 equivalents, which has fluctuated between $7.4 per tonne in 2011 to under $1 per tonne today.

Source: Gogo, J. “Zimbabwe: Kariba REDD+ Removes Tonnes of Carbon 182 Emissions”, The Herald, 3 November 2014 Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 183 6 In this chapter we looked at ways in which we can limit the can limit we in which ways at looked In this chapter we mitigation. change through climate of long-term or rate amount at looked We global and local emissions sources. investigated We then We measures. mitigation and socio-economic technological commitments mitigation international discussed Zimbabwe’s finance green that ways and options. The next chapter examines and change adaptation climate to implement can be accessed measures. mitigation Siliniwe Moyo, a locally trained technician at Mashaba solar minigrid, which technician at Mashaba solar Siliniwe Moyo, a locally trained and a clinic in Gwanda. is powering irrigation, small businesses, a school Project by Communities for Rural Installed through the Sustainable Energy Action Zimbabwe Practical 6 Endnotes 1 IPCC 2014a. “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report”. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report IPCC, Geneva: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/, accessed August 2015

2 https://coastadapt.com.au/sites/default/files/infographics/15-117-NCCARFINFOGRAPHICS- 01-UPLOADED-WEB%2827Feb%29.pdf

3 IEA 2017. “World Energy Investment Outlook” :www.iea.org/publications/wei2017/

4 British Petroleum 2017. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy”: www.bp.com/en/global/ corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/renewable-energy.html

5 Renewable Energy Policy Network 2017. “Advancing the Global Renewable Energy Transition: Highlights of the REN21 Renewables 2017 Global Status Report in Perspective”

Mitigation options for Zimbabwe 6 Project Drawdown: www.drawdown.org/solutions/materials/refrigerant-management

7 Ibid.

8 Ibid.

9 Hawken, P. 2017

10 Bergkamp and Orlando 1999

11 http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/items/10124.php

12 Regeneration International: http://regenerationinternational.org/why-regenerative- agriculture/

13 Biochar International: www.biochar-international.org/biochar

14 The Guardian 2013: www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/12/artificial-trees-fight- climate-change

15 UNEP 2011: www.unep.org/greeneconomy/sites/unep.org.greeneconomy/files/ publications/ger/ger_final_dec_2011/1.0-Introduction.pdf

16 IPCC 2014:https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/; http://journalistsresource.org/studies/ environment/climate-change/united-nations-ipcc-working-group-iii-report-climate- change-mitigation

17 For more on the circular economy, see www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular- economy

18 Project Drawdown: www.drawdown.org/solutions/women-and-girls/educating-girls

19 For more information on sustainable intensification approaches, see www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S0264837715000332

20 www.ctc-n.org/technical-assistance/projects/technical-assistance-piloting-rapid-uptake- industrial-energy

184 7 Financing mitigation 7 and adaptation

This chapter was written by Elisha Moyo with contributions from Tendayi Marowa

This chapter gives a background to climate finance and describes Financing mitigation and adaptation some domestic and international finance opportunities and enablers such as the technology and capacity required to tap these resources. Appendix 2 offers a summary of finance options.

Chapter summary

The Paris Agreement and climate finance 186 What is climate finance? 187 Global climate finance flows 189 Private sector finance 192 Finance for Zimbabwe 193 Barriers to accessing climate finance 198 Finance enablers 199 Climate Technology Centre and Network 202 Governance and institutional frameworks 202 Role of focal points 203

185 7 The Paris Agreement and climate finance

COP21 in Paris (2015) introduced a new era for climate finance and policies, defining a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change. Parties to the agreement have accepted the following, among other obligations: to set more ambitious targets every five years as required by science through their nationally determined contributions (NDCs); to report to each other and the public on how well they are doing in Financing mitigation and adaptation meeting their targets; to track progress toward the long-term goal through a robust transparency and accountability system; and to strengthen their abilities to deal with the impacts of climate change.

The Paris Agreement reiterated that developed countries shall provide finance to assist developing countries with mitigation and adaptation. Zimbabwe can draw on these multilateral and international financial sources. The agreement has therefore sent a strong signal for increasing ambition through scaling up efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change and adapt to it, and to bring finance flows in line with a pathway towards lower greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.1

The agreement thus recognises the urgent need to make finance, technology and capacity building available in a predictable way to enable enhanced action before 2020. COP21 also invited UN agencies and international, regional and national financial institutions to provide information on how their development assistance and climate finance programmes incorporate climate- proofing and climate resilience measures.2 This shows that climate finance is recognised as a critical enabler of global climate aspirations and fulfilment of obligations. 186 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 187 shows that while NDCs represent NDCs represent while 4 shows that climate finance? is climate What or transnational to local, national refers finance Climate and other private public, from be drawn which may financing, emissions, reducing covers change. This climate to address sources of greenhouse quantities large emit in sectors that notably change. of climate effects to the adverse gases, and adaptation in Annex II of the UNFCCC grouped countries Industrialised assist developing to resources financial to provide required are of the UNFCCC objectives the country parties in implementing differentiated but of common the principle with in accordance 3 in the convention. set out and capabilities responsibility and other – governments players country climate All developing and assess their financial needs, understand – must stakeholders will be resources of this financing and how these the sources and receive to their ability must also demonstrate mobilised. They for utmost transparency, and with effectively, use the resources reporting measurement, The effective and adaptation. mitigation trust key to building are finance of climate and verification and external actors. parties to the convention between NDCs and finance report The UNFCCC synthesis a major step forward in that they are expected to deliver sizeable sizeable expected to deliver they are in that a major step forward in the and slow down emissions growth emission reductions the upward reverse to will not be sufficient decade, they coming of global emissions by 2025 and 2030. trend the Earth will efforts, reduction the NDCs’ emission Despite the century;all parties need to into hence to warm well continue For developing efforts. and adaptation scale up their mitigation and technical capacity finance, this will require countries technology. adaptation 7 Financing Zimbabwe’s NDCs The Constitution of Zimbabwe (2013) gives every person environmental rights, including the right to an environment that is not harmful to health or well-being and to have the environment protected for the benefit of present and future generations. This is to be actualised through legislative and other measures that, among others, secure development and use of natural resources that are ecologically sustainable while promoting economic and social development. The Constitution stipulates that the State must take measures, within the limits of Financing mitigation and adaptation the resources available to it, to achieve the progressive realisation of these rights.

Zimbabwe’s national economic blueprint, ZimAsset, aims to achieve sustainable development and social equity. The policy acknowledges that the country faces multiple environmental challenges, including susceptibility to floods and droughts, that it is reliant on climate-sensitive economic sectors and that it needs investment in climate-proofing these sectors as a priority.

Zimbabwe submitted its INDCs in 2015.5 They quantify and cost the priority climate actions, climate-related policies and socio- economic sector inputs necessary to increase climate resilience and reduce per capita emissions by 33% by 2030. They focus on the most climate-sensitive sectors of the economy: agriculture and energy, the main source of emissions. Zimbabwe’s INDCs seek to build resilience to climate change while ensuring sustainable development in recognition of its climate change vulnerability and national circumstances. They also seek to contribute to the ambitious global goal of limiting temperature rise to below 1.5°C and set the finance required to implement the actions at $90 billion.

188 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 189 INDCs are subject to the availability of affordable of affordable to the availability subject are The INDCs to access the ability support, investment, financial international capacity transfer, and development technology our resources, a national to develop improvement and continued development with is in line our own resources Accessing environment enabling financing mechanisms: tax and key identified ZimAsset, which fund, wealth sovereign resources, leveraging non-tax revenue, partnerships, securitisation of bonds, public-private issuance and the international with re-engagement of remittances, and other financing options. institutions finance multilateral and technology to the various arms of the UNFCCC finance Access Fund ( GCF), Climate Climate as the Green mechanisms, such Fund and (CTCN), Adaptation Network and Centre Technology investment (GEF), and continued Facility Global Environmental Some of the Zimbabwe. for critical partners are by developmental in appendix 2. listed options are finance main climate Global climate finance flows 6 to developing developed from flow finance climate global Total In dollar 2012. by almost 15% since has increased countries to $687 2011/2012 $650 billion for around terms this ranges from is shown in 2014. This growth 2013 and $741 billion for billion for figure 28. 741 7 687 650

2011–12 2013 2014 Financing mitigation and adaptation

Figure 28: Increase in global climate finance ($ billions) from all sources between 2011 and 2014 Source: “Global Climate Finance: An Updated View on 2013 & 2014 Flows, October 2016”: http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Global- Climate-Finance-An-Updated-View-on-2013-and-2014-Flows.pdf

Where does the finance come from?

The world’s six largest multilateral development banks have committed over $158 billion in climate finance during the past six years to developing countries and emerging economies. They are: • African Development Bank (AfDB) • Asian Development Bank (ADB) • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) • European Investment Bank (EIB), • Inter-American Development Bank Group (IDBG) • World Bank Group (WBG)

They have been jointly tracking and reporting climate finance, as shown in figure 29.

190 Financing mitigation and adaptation 191 7 WBG IDBG EIB EBRD AfDB ADB             , ,  , ,  ,  , The highest pledge of $28,345 million was made in 2014. The World World pledge of $28,345 million was made in 2014. The The highest six-year the (42%) over commitment made the largest Bank Group the AfDBperiod while (6%). the lowest made efficiency and energy energy in renewable investment Private the of the global total. However, share largest the represents certain than the renewable much less are data efficiency energy costs of clean as the increased have of finance Levels data. energy countries developing to fall. In most continued have technology the inflows of exceeds significantly finance domestic public sources. multilateral and bilateral from finance climate climate finance commitments (in $ millions) from 2011–16 Figure 29: Reported climate finance commitments (in $ millions) Banks”: on Multilateral Development Report 2016 Joint Finance “Climate Source: www.ebrd.com/2016-joint-report-on-mdbs-climate-finance.pdf 7 Where is the money going? The 2016 figures shown in table 9 show that 77.3% of the climate finance flows in 2016 were dedicated to mitigation, 22.3% to adaptation and 0.4% to measures that addressed both mitigation and adaptation at the same time (dual-benefit finance). At COP22 developing countries strongly advocated a balance between mitigation and adaptation finance.

Table 9: Adaptation, mitigation and dual-benefit climate finance (in $ millions) from multinational development banks in 2016 Financing mitigation and adaptation

MDB Adaptation Mitigation Dual-benefit Total finance finance finance

ADB 1,187 3,250 4,437

AfDB 388 673 1,061

EBRD 154 3,269 71 3,495

EIB 290 3,976 4,266

IDBG 551 2,109 29 2,689

WBG 3,555 7,939 11,494

Total 6,125 21,216 100 27,442

Source: “Climate Finance 2016 Joint Report on Multilateral Development Banks”: www.ebrd.com/2016-joint-report-on-mdbs-climate-finance.pdf)

Private sector finance

Private firms make investment decisions based on commercial viability. That means that investments must cover the full costs of the project, including the cost of capital, and achieve a return to balance the associated risks. This principle can often lead to under-investment in activities promising strong environmental and social benefits but lacking in reliable returns. 192 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 193 climate fund supported by a 10% fund supported by climate a national Establish budget in the national allocation in every district projects Channel funds to support climate the to enhance policies and implement review Develop, activities to engage in carbon market country’s capacity funds by climate international to access Build capacity GCF and CDM, REDD+, through financed scaling up projects GEF as national institutions of national the accreditation Ensure to GCF and the access direct for entities implementing Fund Adaptation on budget expenditure annual of the an analysis Provide impacts on to determine its interventions climate-related groups vulnerable for for industries a 0.005% levy of net profit Establish growth green national • • • • • • • climate change businesses in most parts of the world of the world parts in most businesses change climate In the into integrated is not yet emissions of carbon the cost makers policy Thus, way. meaningful in any decision making to encourage strategies alternative with experimented have undertaken are these investments In some countries investment. are Governments finance. taxpayers’ sector through by the public sector private the involve that to approaches looking increasingly banks, and global commercial local, regional companies, – private equity companies, private leasing institutions, non-bank financial 7 investors. and institutional investors climate finance vision is captured in the vision is captured finance domestic climate Zimbabwe’s to: proposes (2017) which Policy Climate National could be: taxes financing domestic climate for Other strategies for levies and fees, and incentives; such as the carbon tax, rebates Finance for Zimbabwe instance for ozone licences; and local public-private partnerships 7 to complement Treasury efforts to fund climate actions. Levies, fees and taxes from non-climate-smart practices and payments from the implementation of the “polluter-pays principle” could also support climate actions. Zimbabwe has proposed introducing a climate change levy on natural resources such as timber and mineral and agricultural products which are exported.

Zimbabwe’s citizens are also called upon to provide climate finance for their local and household-level climate actions. Financing mitigation and adaptation

International finance for Zimbabwe

There has been an increase in dedicated climate finance over the years as the detrimental impact of industrialisation on the climate system and humans becomes unequivocal. Relevant climate funds established are:

The Global Environmental Facility The GEF started in 1991 as a $1 billion pilot programme of the World Bank to assist the protection of the global environment and promote environmentally sustainable development. The GEF serves the UNFCCC and several other international environmental agreements. It is now an operating entity of the convention’s financial mechanism and is entrusted to operate the Special Climate Change Fund, as well as the Least Developed Countries Fund. COP21 decided that GEF shall serve the Paris Agreement and decisions agreed before its adoption. Zimbabwe has been implementing various projects under the GEF, including the Hwange-Sanyati biological corridor project and the development of the INDCs.

Special Climate Change Fund The SCCF was established under the UNFCCC in 2001 to 194 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 195 adaptation; technology transfer transfer technology to: adaptation; relating projects finance agriculture, industry, transport, energy, building; and capacity diversification, and economic and waste management; forestry funding mechanisms. other complementing The Adaptation Fund adaptation concrete in 2001 to finance The AF was established country parties to the of developing and programmes projects carbon credits. from is drawn Finance Protocol. Kyoto Fund Countries The Least Developed of NAPAs and implementation preparation the The LDCF finances needs in least adaptation and immediate to urgent in response countries. developed Funds Climate Investment recognised in 2008 by G8 Leaders who CIF was established a CIF with change and set up of climate costs the increased was it Fund once Climate Green to the to transfer sunset clause established. The Green Climate Fund in 2010. change fund established climate The GCF is a dedicated attained having date, to financing source climate is the largest It aims to It cycle. mobilisation initial than $10 billion in its more and adaptation mitigation between an equal balance achieve 50% of the adaptation time and has allocated over investments African states. including countries, funds to vulnerable 12 with a board established instrument The GCF governing country members. The fund is and 12 developing developed to support projects, to and is guided by the COP accountable countries in developing and other activities policies programmes, funding windows. thematic through The fund has “readiness and project preparation” finances whose 7 funding proposals are approved by the secretariat. Full project funding proposals are approved by the GCF board. The Paris Agreement states that the institutions serving the agreement, including the operating entities of the financial mechanism, such as GCF and GEF, shall aim to ensure efficient access to financial resources through simplified approval procedures and enhanced readiness support for developing countries. Country negotiations through the COP and GCF focal points are therefore critical in ensuring that there is efficiency and simplified approval procedures. Financing mitigation and adaptation

Engaging with the GCF is possible through the following: • Establishing and maintaining a national designated authority or focal point • Development of country programmes to determine which priorities identified by country strategies – NCCRS, NCP, INDCs, LEDs, NAPAs and NAMAs, for instance – are the best match for GCF support • Identify and seek accreditation of entities to access resources from the fund • Develop projects and programmes to bring forward funding proposals through accredited entities

Disbursements by the GCF for developing countries have been slow and application procedures are cumbersome, especially for the most vulnerable countries and communities. Furthermore, the rate of the fund capitalisation remains low and unlikely to meet the agreed target of raising $100 billion per annum by 2020. It is therefore critical for developing countries to diversify their resource mobilisation strategies and financial sources beyond the GCF.

196 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 197 Other funds could be that and support enablers of finances, Other sources the clean development financing are climate used to enhance and Network, Centre Technology Climate mechanisms (CDMs), the REDD+ Development, Agriculture Fund for International Climate for Global Framework Facility, Carbon Partnership Forest appropriate , nationally Plan Adaptation Services, National the Assessment, Needs Technology (NAMAs), actions mitigation German development the Assessment, Needs Capacity REDD+ Agency, Energy Renewable (GIZ), the International organisation the UN UN agencies. including Fund and several Kuwait Organisation, and Agriculture the Food Programme, Environment Programme, the UN Development Programme, Food the World and the UN Organisation Development the UN Industrial Climate technology focal points from Africa with members of the Climate points from Africa with members of the Climate technology focal a side event at and Network and its partners pictured at Centre Technology Morocco, held in Marrakech, the UNFCCC to of Parties the 22nd Conference in November 2016 Photo Moyo, 2016 Economic Commission for Africa. Regional sources include the 7 African Union Commission, the African Development Bank’s climate development fund, Africa Climate Change Fund, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) and Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa). Figure 30 summarises funds available from some of these sources.

27.1

10.2 Total pledge ($bn) Average project size ($m) Financing mitigation and adaptation 7.5

6.6 3.6 4.1 4.2 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.8 GCF CIFs GEF-6 LDCF FCPF SCCF AF CC-M

Figure 30: Some key milestones of climate finance in the global response to climate change Source: presentation by R. Kelly, regional advisor on GEF to UNDP 2014

Barriers to accessing climate finance

Most climate funding seems to be going to south and east Asia, the Pacific and the Caribbean and non-EU Europe, while sub- Saharan Africa is one of two regions receiving the least funding.

Developing countries need to overcome various barriers to access finance, capacity building, technology enhancement and creation of an enabling environment. A range of issues can present challenges, including: 198 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 199 Low levels of technical capacity to design and develop and develop to design capacity technical of levels Low and evaluate and to monitor and programmes projects progress and finance access to procedures following in Difficulties action and available of the need for Lack of awareness of funding sources documenting the socio- Detailed sectoral case studies documenting • • • • climate finance are under way under way are finance to climate access to improve efforts Several regard. in this efforts stepped up its and the GCF in particular has of local business planners in building the capacity Investment needed. Ownership is a range of sources from finance to attract national with of this finance and alignment finance of climate crucial. are and strategies policies change priorities, climate workshops, capacity-building has held numerous Zimbabwe in Finance to Green and Access the CDM sessions with including 8 2016 and 2017 respectively. and policy financial, technology, Carrying comprehensive out the actions to be is crucial to identify needs assessments capacity need to understand the also Proponents finance. to access taken and align areas and financiers’ priority procedures engagement Engagement areas. project proposed their countries’ them with ministries of particularly government, across stakeholders of key society civil including society, planning, and across and finance sector, is also important. and the private Finance enablers more for is a need financing, there domestic climate catalyse To and development in project capacity and greater awareness could include: This phases. implementation economic value of climate investments such as better 7 competitiveness in product pricing and improved food security. This could attract investments by government, local authorities, local businesses and individuals. • The creation ofan institutional and policy environment which enables consistent collection, mobilisation, use, monitoring and evaluation of climate finance. • Capacity building for climate actions, covering resilience, mitigation, financing and technology provision as envisioned in the Paris Agreement. This would unlock climate finance through re-alignment of budgets and Financing mitigation and adaptation allocation of resources to climate-resilient and low- carbon actions.

Quick actions for finance access

To facilitate access to finance policy makers should: • Familiarise themselves with the national and sector climate- related policies highlighted in chapter 4 • Identify climate financing benefits and threats from non- climate-proofing finance • Mainstream climate change into programming and budgeting • Quantify and monitor finances allocated to and used for climate change activities • Internally fund socio-economically beneficial climate actions • Identify and understand external funding opportunities before requesting climate finance • Re-design the budgetary allocation to be climate-sensitive

“Mwana asingacheme anofira mumbereko” – a Zimbabwean proverb meaning “Resources are not allocated to those who need them but to those who ask.”

200 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 201 Identify various international funds, enablers and support funds, enablers various international Identify mechanisms or specific programmes the funds for relevant Identify activities climate processes each funder’s access with themselves Familiarise their proposals and align these with priorities and national with impact, alignment climate Assess the proposed • • • • Finance criteria is also finance stage, developmental centre takes As climate low-carbon resilience, tied to climate and often being increasing finance Successful development. and sustainable technologies the understand proponents project that require applications of projects. outputs and expected criteria guidelines, eligibility as of the project should be on the impact potential Emphasis financing models, among them results- specified in various specific climate , i.e. funding to achieve based climate financing 9 results. or adaptation mitigation to finance climate to access wanting anyone is crucial for It impact, target to climate in regard understand the project criteria, eligibility investors’ priorities and national investors on finance, to focus is critical It stakeholders. key and to consult there but frameworks, and institutional governance technology, is investment there that to ensure effort also be a deliberate must if players, as critical youth the especially capital, in human must also The efforts funding is to be sustainable. project climate vision and climate interest, to the country’s strategic be sensitive circumstances. national Quick actions for implementers these funds to access wanting and implementers Decision makers should: national priorities and assessment criteria • Identify and contact the designated focal points or contact 7 point to initiate the process • Review and submit a funding proposal request

Climate Technology Centre and Network

Inability to mobilise climate finance is sometimes the result of technology challenges. It is therefore important to promote technology transfer and development when addressing climate finance issues. Investors often require finance proposals to be developed at scale, packaged in a specific format and offer Financing mitigation and adaptation feasibility studies that include climate impact, paradigm shift potential and transformation to climate resilience and low-carbon development.

This often entails forging public-private partnerships, submitting innovative ideas and catalysing the use of technology plans that respond to the needs of countries. The operational arm of the UNFCCC technology mechanism, the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) can help countries to package their requests and match them with financing institutions.

Governance and institutional frameworks

Effective climate finance mobilisation and utilisation require good governance and institutional frameworks. The following are some key developments in these areas at local and international levels as well as recommendations for effective climate action.

The National Climate Policy (NCP) recognises that climate funding is crucial to its successful implementation and management of climate change. The policy acknowledges that despite Zimbabwe’s vulnerability, several sector-specific adaptation and mitigation options have been constrained by the lack of funding. Zimbabwe 202 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 203 Convening national stakeholders national Convening priorities national aligned with oversight Strategic support of readiness Approval and projects letters for of “no objection” Issuance programmes entities access of direct Nomination and evaluate to monitor ability and awareness: Oversight activities related with and familiarity activities fund-related plans, strategies, priorities, of national Knowledge • • • • • • • has recently established governance and institutional structures structures and institutional governance established has recently and coordinated better issues are finance climate that to ensure and regional international, the countryavailable taps the that clean REDD+, such as the opportunities regime local climate and the GCF. mechanisms development climate a national of the establishment for also provides The NCP to enhance policies and implement review fund to develop, and activities market to engage in carbon capacity Zimbabwe’s funds. climate international to access build capacity Role of focal points Role of focal country links between are who points, focal established The COP access. finance climate to catalyse and the financiers, stakeholders their to increase use these offices should therefore Stakeholders mobilising finance. of successfully chances focal points: Recommended roles and capacities of are: focal points of roles The are: focal points of capacities recommended The adaptation and mitigation efforts and needs 7 • Coordination functions: facilitating multi-stakeholder consultations and other country coordination mechanisms • Drive: ability to drive strategic engagement

Table 10: Key climate finance-related focal points in Zimbabwe

Insti- Focal points and Contact persons Email addresses tution addresses

GCF Climate Change Washington Zhakata washingtonzhakata@ Management (director and National gmail.com; Department, Ministry Delegated Authority) climatechange@

Financing mitigation and adaptation of Environment, Water Elisha N. Moyo, environment.gov.zw and Climate, 11th Floor alternate focal point [email protected] Kaguvi Building, Central (principal climate Ave/4th Street, Harare researcher)

GEF Dept of Environment Tanyaradzwa [email protected] and Natural Mundoga (acting Resources, Ministry of director and GEF Environment, Water focal point) and Climate, 11th Floor Kaguvi Building, Central Ave/4th Street, Harare

AF Climate Change Washington Zhakata climatechange@ Management Veronica Gundu- environment.gov.zw Department Jakarasi (alternate) [email protected]

CTCN Climate Change Elisha N. Moyo [email protected] Management (National Delegated Department Authority)

NAMA Climate Change Lawrence Mashungu lawrencemashungu@ Management gmail.com Department

This chapter has provided critical background to climate finance and possible opportunities and enablers for successful resource mobilisation in Zimbabwe. Stakeholders and decision makers can use the chapter to understand the basics of climate finance and increase their knowledge of eligibility criteria for Zimbabwe’s climate funding proposals.

204 Financing mitigation and adaptation 7 205 UNFCCC. “The Paris Agreement”: http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php Paris Agreement”: UNFCCC. “The https:// Platform: Knowledge Development Sustainable Nations United sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/finance/decisions and Observers”: http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/items/2704.php UNFCCC. “Parties Nationally of the Intended Effect on the Aggregate Report UNFCCC 2015. “Synthesis https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf Determined Contributions”: INDCs: www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/ Zimbabwe’s Zimbabwe/1/Zimbabwe%20Intended%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20 2015.pdf http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/standing_ committee/application/pdf/2016_ba_summary_and_recommendations.pdf Sector”: www.climateactionprogramme. the Private Engaging Finance: IFC 2011. “Climate org/images/uploads/documents/ClimateFinance_G20Report.pdf Ibid. Finance Climate Delivering in Practice: Finance Climate Bank 2017. “Results-based World http://documents. Bank Group: DC: World Washington, Development”. Low-Carbon for worldbank.org/curated/en/410371494873772578/Results-based-climate-finance-in- practice-delivering-climate-finance-for-low-carbon-development Endnotes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 Financing mitigation and adaptation

All Zimbabweans must start working together to ensure a resilient future

206 8 Conclusions and 8 recommendations

Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions In this, the final chapter, we bring together the main messages from this book and provide recommendations for specific adaptation and mitigation activities as well as general recommendations for Zimbabwe.

Chapter summary

Zimbabwe’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity 208 Summary of climate impacts on Zimbabwe 209 Government action on climate change 210 Recommendations for action 210 Adaptation recommendations 210 Mitigation recommendations 212 Accessing climate finance 214

207 8 Zimbabwe’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity

As we have seen, climate change caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is already having a profound effect throughout the world. Although Zimbabwe has advantages that contribute to its adaptive capacity, many Zimbabweans are vulnerable to shocks and hazards which climate change is bringing and will increasingly exacerbate. Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions

Factors contributing to Zimbabwe’s vulnerability: • The climate is naturally variable • Most Zimbabweans depend on rain-fed agriculture • Energy production is partly dependent on hydroelectricity • Much of industry is climate-sensitive • Industry and agriculture depend on human labour • Natural resources have been degraded due to poor land management • Most Zimbabweans live in rural areas • Poverty, malnutrition and poor health are widespread • There is physical and economic water scarcity in parts of the country • Many communities lack the means to put adaptation plans and disaster risk reduction measures into practice

Factors that improve Zimbabwe’s adaptive capacity: • Abundant natural resources • Basic infrastructure – roads, settlements, health and educational facilities • A diverse economy • High literacy levels • A relatively low fertility rate so the population is growing gradually 208 Conclusions and recommendations 8 209 resilient resilient indigenous knowledge in some communities in knowledge indigenous Extensive drought- are that of indigenous crops Availability temperatures to high and tolerant social networks and strong capital of social High levels A modest decrease in the total amount of rainfall in the total amount A modest decrease season Changes to the onset and end of the rainy dry mid-season and longer periods frequent More recharge groundwater Reduced the country throughout rainfall distribution Erratic year year after occur which may and floods, droughts More of 4°C increase A temperature • • • • • • • • • • Meteorologists in Zimbabwe have recorded average temperature temperature average recorded have in Zimbabwe Meteorologists are The rains parts of the country. rises and rainfall declines in common. dry more and mid-season spells are starting later floods and storms appear to be such as droughts, events Extreme and less predictable. frequent more becoming Zimbabwe that the end of the century is likely it By 2050 and until change: of climate effects the following will experience from supplies water reduced to lead to likely These changes are and the expansion of natural sources and groundwater surface I and shifts in the areas region shrinking of natural V, region of natural Degradation III and IV. regions by natural covered and livestock crops, vegetation, soil, water, especially resources, food reduced to be is likely There to occur. likely are wildlife, and a greater among children under-nutrition increasing security, Summary of climate Summary of Zimbabwe impacts on incidence of diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria and cholera. 8 The rural poor, particularly women, children, the elderly and the disabled will most likely bear the brunt of the impacts.

Government action on climate change

Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions International agreements, notably the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have been put in place to address the problems of climate change through adaptation to the effects and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation). The landmark Paris Agreement aims to keep global temperature rises well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. In support, Zimbabwe has developed a climate policy and a climate response strategy as well as submitting our nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC which pledge a 33% per capita emissions reduction.

Recommendations for action

These recommendations are drawn from chapters 5, 6 and 7 of this book. Many are already proposed in the National Climate Policy, the National Climate Change Response Strategy and our communications to the UNFCCC relating to the NDCs.

Adaptation recommendations

Zimbabweans will have to adapt to survive the changes in the climate. Adaptation is about building the resilience of human 210 Conclusions and recommendations 211 8 Learn about the components of your system (social, system of your the components Learn about and economic) ecological and shocks hazards threats, potential Identify of vulnerability areas Identify capacity adaptive increase could that factors Identify plan a disaster risk reduction Develop vulnerability to reduce in place measures Put capacity adaptive to increase in place measures Put 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. communities and ecosystems in the face of environmental shocks shocks of environmental the face in and ecosystems communities improve that measures development sustainable and taking networks. social and strengthen management resource natural are: process in an adaptation to take Some steps and to specific environments should be tailored Adaptation in communities by local should be driven It communities. agencies supported by local and development with participation should initiatives agencies. Local adaptation government national scientific with in combination on indigenous knowledge draw should be Communities advances. and technological research plans. disaster risk reduction helped to prepare land, vegetation and communities Water, should focus Zimbabwe for measures Sectoral adaptation and on land use and vegetation, of water, on management communities. human strengthening and conserving to protecting should be given Priority and soil erosion by reducing resources water underground is Expandingirrigation and aquifers. wetlands safeguarding should be on the focus In land management also important. and improving mining activities by controlling soil protection is a agriculture of climate-smart The promotion agriculture. benefits. far-reaching can have that measure powerful It is vital to conserve forests since vegetation has beneficial 8 impacts on weather, soil and water systems. Agroforestry, climate-smart agriculture, control of wildfires and encouraging crop diversification are equally important.

Raising awareness about climate change and building capacity for adaptation strategies that build on indigenous knowledge can strengthen communities. Improving the abilities of communities to deliberate and act collectively by encouraging participation is a way to achieve this. Protecting the most vulnerable individuals

Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions and diversifying livelihoods are crucial for building community resilience. Climate-proofing infrastructure including buildings, roads and bridges, is also crucial.

Business adaptation measures

Climate-proofing businesses will be an important step in reducing the risk of financial losses due to climate change. The following steps can be taken: 1. Raise awareness of climate change and possible impacts on sector-specific operations 2. Identify climate risks such as water scarcity and floods and assess their potential severity 3. Identify adaptation solutions such as efficient use of water and power 4. Prioritise and develop budgets 5. Implement adaptation measures 6. Spread the risks through insurance 7. Commission monitoring and evaluation to find out if measures are working and adjusting when necessary

Mitigation recommendations

Zimbabwe has made commitments to reduce emissions under the 212 Conclusions and recommendations 213 8 Conduct an energy audit of your system of your audit an energy Conduct for instance system, for used in your the processes Analyse transport and manufacturing, cooking, lighting, heating, waste efficiently more energy and use to generate ways Identify renewable and introduce to use less energy ways Identify projects waste-to-energy including technologies, energy non-greenhouse with can be replaced that materials Identify measures and low-energy refrigerants) (like gas alternatives fertiliser instead of inorganic such as using compost as be developed could system that in your elements Identify waste of organic composting planting, carbon sinks – tree etc. measures the mitigation Institute 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Paris Agreement, but the country needs stronger representation representation the country stronger needs but Agreement, Paris technical to secure change negotiations climate in international measures. mitigation and adaptation funding for support and solutions technological through needs to be achieved Mitigation systems on to the social and economic and structural changes steps can be taken following based. The our societies are which system such as a any for plan a mitigation developing when community. home, business, or also gas emissions, mitigation greenhouse reducing from Apart the from carbon dioxide of (removal carbon sequestration involves atmosphere). Mitigation options for Zimbabwe emissions, for sector is most responsible the energy Since cleanly more power to generate needs to find ways Zimbabwe particularly solutions, energy and adopt renewable and efficiently needs generation power wind and biogas. Coal-fired power, solar to be made more efficient, preferably with some form of carbon 8 capture.

Mining, manufacturing and other industrial enterprises should be encouraged to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Companies that emit harmful gases should be encouraged to invest in mitigation and adaptation measures through corporate social responsibility projects. They should look at substituting materials for refrigerants and cement that do not cause greenhouse gas emissions. Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions

Switching to climate-smart agriculture methods will reduce emissions, sequester carbon dioxide and help farmers adapt to the uncertainty of the future climate.

REDD+ and other forestry conservation and expansion measures need to be expanded to conserve all of our national forests. A concerted nation-wide campaign to promote energy-efficient stoves and rural electrification needs to be launched.

Accessing climate finance

Although climate change funding for developing countries has increased, more money is going towards mitigation than adaptation. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions receiving the least amount of funding. This is because of: • Lack of technical capacity to design and develop projects and monitor and evaluate progress • Difficulties in following procedures to access finance • Lack of awareness of the need for action and available sources of funding

214 Conclusions and recommendations 215 8 Familiarise themselves with the national and sector climate- the national with themselves Familiarise chapter 4 in highlighted policies related non- from and threats financing benefits climate Identify finance climate-proofing and programming change into climate Mainstream budgeting for used to and allocated finances and monitor Quantify change activities climate actions beneficial climate Fund socio-economically and understand external funding opportunities Identify finance climate requesting before the budgetaryRe-design to be climate-sensitive allocation and support funds, enablers various international Identify mechanisms or climate programmes specific funds for relevant Identify activities processes funder’s access each with themselves Familiarise their proposals and align these with priorities and national with impact, alignment climate Assess the proposed criteria and assessment priorities national or points focal designated the with and work Identify the process to initiate point contact request a funding proposal and submit Review • • • • • • • • • • • • • climate finance are under way way under are finance to climate access to improve efforts Several in workshops capacity-building held many has and Zimbabwe this regard. should: makers policy to finance access facilitate To related for climate-change for funding to apply Those looking should: projects 8 Conclusion It is hoped that the information in these pages will persuade planners and decision makers of the urgent need to prepare Zimbabweans to face up to climate change and its attendant risks. The most important message of this book is that we must act now to address this, the biggest threat to humanity today. For the sake of future generations of Zimbabweans, we cannot afford to delay. Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions

216 217  218  Appendix 1: Resources 219 Useful organisations Useful departments: Government AGRITEX and Irrigation Ministry Mechanisation of Agriculture, Development Building Ngungunyana Harare Rd, 1 Borrowdale 263 4 706081–9 www.agritex.gov.zw/ Department Protection of Civil Development and Urban Ministry Rural of Local Government, Building Makombe Harare avenues, Takawira Chitepo/Leopold Herbert Corner 263 4 791287 [email protected] Mrs Ndlovhu Director: Agency Management Environmental Harare Ave, Chitepo St/Herbert Harare Complex, Makombe [email protected] 08080028 263 4 705671–3, 705661–2; toll-free 0779565707 (WhatsApp) www.ema.co.zw ServicesMeteorological Department Harare Belvedere, avenues, and Hudson Gaul Bishop Corner 263 4 778176 www.weather.co.zw/ Mr Makarau Director: Appendix 1: Resources Appendix 220 Appendix 1: Resources Research inthefollowing areas: buildingclimate resilience for School ofWildlife, Ecology and Conservation change adaptation for livestock. sequestration, climate changeimpactsoncrops andclimate agriculture ongreenhouse gasemissionsandcarbon Several research studies,including impactofconservation School of Agricultural SciencesandTechnology Chinhoyi University ofTechnology Academic andresearchinstitutions www.zimparks.org/ 263 4707624–9,792796–9,706077/8 Corner SandringhamDrive andBorrowdale Rd, Harare Botanical Gardens Zimbabwe Parks andWildlife Management Authority www.zinwa.co.zw/ [email protected] 263 4797610–3,604–7 8th FloorOld Mutual Centre, 3rd St/Jason Moyo Ave, Harare Zimbabwe National Water Authority www.forestry.co.zw/ 263 44984369 1 OrangeGrove Drive, Highlands,Harare Commission Zimbabwe Forestry Director: Washington Zhakata www.environment.gov.zw/ 263 4701681–3 11th FloorKaguvi Building,Corner 4thSt/Central Ave, Harare Climate ChangeManagement Department ofEnvironment, WaterMinistry andClimate Appendix 1: Resources 221 the City of Harare in partnership with Harare City Council and and Council City Harare with in partnership of Harare the City and adaptation climate Authority; Water National Zimbabwe in Lakes climate in a changing and fish health economy; green and Manyame. Chivero www.cut.ac.zw/schools/ State University Lupane and rangeland animal science sciences: Agricultural drought- to improve research science and crop management, varieties sorghum tolerant Harare St/10th Ave, Fife Corner 2nd Floor, CBZ Building, 64458 263 9 73770–1, 63546, www.lsu.ac.zw/index.php/en/ Midlands State University Agriculture and Management Resources of Natural Faculty to adaptation building for capacity of Agronomy: Department change climate Gweru 263 8677000234 http://ww4.msu.ac.zw/ of Science and Technology University National Studies of Development Institute Bulawayo Ave, Cecil Gwanda Rd, Corner 263 9 282842, 288413, 289557 www.nust.ac.zw of Zimbabwe University Harare Pleasant, Mount Ave, 630 Churchill 263 4 30321 www.uz.ac.zw/ change- climate Several Studies: of Environmental Institute Change Climate of the National studies and development related 222 Appendix 1: Resources Public relations: Mrs Tarisayi Zvoma 263 4860320/2 1574 AlpesRd, Hatcliffe, Harare (SIRDC) Scientific andIndustrialResearchDevelopment Centre http://www.zou.ac.zw/ 263 4793002/3/7/9,791983,796464,796469,794737,797154 Stanley House, Corner 1stSt/Jason Moyo Ave, Harare waste management research Centre for ODL ResearchandScholarship: Climate-compatible Nursing Science:Health threats ofclimate change Zimbabwe OpenUniversity and natural resources concerns, including climate change multidisciplinary research andteachingonhuman-environment Faculty ofHumanities andSocialStudies:Sociological and climate changeeducation research andoutreach Faculty ofEducation:Education for sustainable development and change adaptation amongsmallholder farmers ofAgricultural Economics:Studiesonclimate Department communities torespond toclimate change Africa:EnhancingtheadaptiveSouthern capacity oflocal University ofZimbabweandSoilFertilityfor Consortium Chairperson: DrB. Mukamuri natural resource management andindigenousknowledge Research onclimate changeadaptation, community-based Centre for Applied SocialScience,Faculty ofSocialStudies: Lead climate changeresearcher: DrMedicine Masiiwa climate changeandagricultural adaptations toclimate change. Institute ofDevelopment Studies:Research ontheeconomics of Director: Prof. S.B. Feresu Response Strategy Appendix 1: Resources 223 Department Services and Specialist Research of Centre Research Agricultural Harare Harare Fifth St Extension, 263 4 7045341–9 Institute Matopos Research Mine, Bulawayo Criterion 320 263 (0383) [email protected] Semi-arid Tropics for Institute Research Crops International (ICRISAT) and community- varieties crop on drought-resistant Research based adaptation Bulawayo Station, Research Matopos 263 383311 to 15, 263 383307 [email protected] www.icrisat.org/icrisat-globalpresence.htm Department Systems Engineering Process of Chemical and and mitigation to adaptation relating Research (HIT) of Technology Institute Harare Harare Belvedere, Ganges Rd, 263 4 741422–36 [email protected] Private sector Zimbabwe Development Sustainable for Business Council Ltd, Corporation c/o Chemplex Lane, Harare 93 Park 263 4 251800/8 www.bcsdz.co.zw/ Sithole person: Dingane Contact 224 Appendix 1: Resources http://practicalaction.org/wherewework_zimbabwe [email protected] Contact person:Hopewell Zheke 263 4776107,+263631 4 Ludlow Rd, Newlands, Harare Practical Action(Zimbabwe) http://oxfaminzimbabwe.org/ Climate changeofficer: DrLeonard Unganai 263 4369603,369564,369873 Arundel Office Park, Norfolk Rd,Harare Oxfam GB(Zimbabwe) [email protected] Climate changeofficer: Collen Mutasa 263 4492148/55 76 QueenElizabethRd, Greendale, Harare Environment Africa Climate changeadaptationprogrammes NGOs involvedinclimatechangeZimbabwe [email protected] Director: Tendayi Marowa 263 774642989,42003771 2925 Mainway Meadows, Waterfalls, Harare Comprehensive EnergySolutions, [email protected] 263 776366958 Chairman: John Chiwara 185 Second StExtension,Mount Pleasant, Harare Green BuildingsCouncil Zimbabwe Appendix 1: Resources 225 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Programme Development Nations United Fund Resilience Building Zimbabwe Park 7 Arundel Office Block Harare Pleasant, Mount Rd, Norfolk 263 4 338836–44 www.zrbf.co.zw/ Organisation (ZERO) Regional Environmental ZERO Harare Ave, 158 Fife 263 772347769 Zvigadza Shepherd Director: [email protected] Conservation Zimbabwe Birdlife Eastlea, Harare Rd, 35 Clyde 263 4 481496 www.birdlifezimbabwe.org/ Campfire Association Woodlands Mukuvisi Harare South, and Glenara Ave Hillside Rd Corner 263 4 747429–30 www.campfirezimbabwe.org/ ConservationUnion (IUCN) World The Harare Belgravia, Rd, 6 Lanark 263 4 705714 www.iucn.org/ 226 Appendix 1: Resources 263 4339512,339503 Upper EastRd, Mount Pleasant, Harare Education Centre Services Building Schools andColleges Permaculture (SCOPE) Programme Children andclimatechange www.driafrica.org/virtual-school/ Director: Verengai Mabika 263 773460466 21 GlenaraAve South, Eastlea,Harare Climate ChangeVirtual School Development Reality Institute [email protected] Director: Foster Dongozi 263 772433116 6210 Bloomingdale Drive, Mabelreign, Harare (ACCCKF) Trust Africa Centre for ClimateChangeKnowledge Foundation Climate changecommunicationsandinformation wwf.panda.org/who_we_are/wwf_offices/zimbabwe/ [email protected] 263 4252533/34 10 Lanark Rd, Belgravia, Harare World WideFundfor Nature (WWF)Zimbabwe www.zimwild.org/ 263 4747648 Corner HillsideRd and GlenaraAve South, Harare Mukuvisi Woodlands Wildlife andEnvironment Zimbabwe(WEZ) Appendix 1: Resources 227 Director: Linda Kabaira Director: [email protected] http://scopezimbabwe.org/ http://permacultureglobal.org/projects/2208-schools-and-colleges- permaculture-programme-scope-zimbabwe (Zimbabwe) UNICEF Change Department Climate Harare Belgravia, Ave, 6 Fairbridge 703941, 799232 263 4 703881, 731840, Wickham person: Amy Contact www.unicef.org/zimbabwe/ Climate change activism Action 24 on Climate Change Conference African Youth Harare Ave, 158 Fife 263 4 772991697 Chemhere Archieford co-ordinator: Programme [email protected] Climate change advocacy Africa Environment Harare Greendale, 76 Queen Elizabeth Rd, 263 4 492148/55 Mutasa Collen change officer: Climate [email protected] Association Lawyers Zimbabwe Environmental Harare Hatfield, Rd, 26B Seke 263 4 573601–3 www.zela.org/ 228 Appendix 1: Resources southern-africa/zimbabwe Famine Early Warning SystemsNetwork: www.fews.net/ cdkn.org/regions/zimbabwe/ Climate Development Knowledge Network: Zimbabwe: http:// Climate changeZimbabwe 22410211~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258644,00.html org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK: World Bank:ClimateChangeandAfrica:http://web.worldbank. climatehotmap.org/global-warming-solutions/africa.html Union ofConcerned Scientists: GlobalwarmingAfrica:www. content&task=article&id=105 http://know.climateofconcern.org/index.php?option=com_ Know ClimateChangeImpactsonAfrica: Climate changeinAfrica about_our_earth/aboutcc/ World WideFundfor Nature ClimateChange:wwf.panda.org/ Newsroom: http://newsroom.unfccc.int/ United Nations FrameworkConvention onClimateChange Intergovernmental PanelonClimate Change:www.ipcc.ch/ climate.nasa.gov Global ClimateChange:Vital signsoftheplanet (NASA): http:// Climate FundsUpdate: www.climatefundsupdate.org/ Climate Development Knowledge Network: http://cdkn.org/ english/static/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/ BBC News GlobalClimateChange:http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/hi/ Climate changeissuesandscience Useful Websites Appendix 1: Resources 229 SADC Climate Services Climate SADC www.sadc.int/sadc-secretariat/ Centre: services-centres/climate-services-centre/ Adaptation Resilience Alliance: http://community. Africa Climate Change eldis.org/accra/ www.climatenetwork. International: Climate Action Network org/about/about-can www.undp-aap.org/ Africa Adaptation Programme: UNDP adaptation: www.unep.org/ UNEP Climate change climatechange/adaptation/ Mitigation www.carbonfootprint.com/minimisecfp. Ltd: Carbonfootprint html Carbonfund.org: www.carbonfund.org/reduce www.thegef.org/gef/climate_ Facility: Global Environment change/mitigation Agency: Protection www.epa.gov/greeningepa/ Environmental ghg/ 230 Appendix 2: Climate finance resources The site reports that: developing countries address thechallengesofclimate change. information about international finance aimed at helping The Climate Funds Update website International funding finance resources Appendix 2:Climate • • • • • • • and resilience measures into national development plans ($54.6 million) went towards incorporating climate risk Adaptation finance reached $2billionin2014,mostof which $1.9 billionin2014. Finance for REDD+ projects indeveloping countries reached Facility approved $900millionfor mitigation activities. Renewable Energy Programme andtheGlobalEnvironment In 2014theCleanTechnology Fund,theScaling-Up investment from companies associated with fossil fuels. organisations, NGOs and individuals aims towithdraw philanthropic foundations, universities, faith-based A globalmovement initiated by localgovernments, address climate change. from governments, businessandthefinancialsectortohelp York mobilisedover $200 billioninfinancial commitments General’sIn 2014theUNSecretary climate summit inNew countries annually between 2010and2012. finance flowed from developed countries todeveloping estimated that $40billion-$175billioninclimate change The standing committee onfinance oftheUNFCCC $2.3 billionfor projects. sourced from theClimate Investment Fund,which approved climate changehasincreased byalmost50%.Most ofit was Since 2013finance approved for newprojects toaddress 1 isausefulplace tofind Appendix 2: Climate finance resources 231 focusing on disaster risk reduction. disaster on focusing in 2001 established Fund was Adaptation The UNFCCC’s in developing institutions to offer in 2007 and launched has 21 It now finance. to its access direct countries implementing or regional as national accredited institutions entities. fastest- and is now the largest Fund Climate The Green $9.7 billion pledged. fund, with climate growing • • Table 11 shows some of the main climate change funds, noting the noting funds, change climate main the of some shows 11 Table of focus the fund, the areas administering organisations sources, they became operational. and the dates 2 (NCCRS) Strategy Change Response Climate National Zimbabwe’s funding multinational of sources important the most that states Bank’s carbon funds, the Global the World are Zimbabwe for Bank, the African the African Development Facility, Environment Fund, and the Kyoto Fund, the Adaptation Forestry Sustainable The document mechanism (CDM). clean development Protocol’s Fund is expected to be a Climate the UNFCCC’s Green notes that countries. for developing finance of climate major source Local funding full to take has not been able Zimbabwe NCCRS notes that The it funding mechanisms because of these international advantage For example, financial institutions. and accredited lacks capacity needs to be and Climate Water the Ministry of Environment, Fund. the Adaptation to access in order accredited could be sourced funding additional suggests that The strategy All for Energy such as the UN Sustainable mechanisms from international and sector carbon funding, REDD+ fund, private that recommends and funds. It foundations conservation 232 Appendix 2: Climate finance resources Table 11:Majorsourcesofclimatechangefunding multi-donor trustfund.3 Rural Electrification FundandtheZimbabwe Energy Fund,a which relate toclimate change,including theWater Fund,the awareness programmes. The NCCRS mentions otherlocalfunds transfer; rehabilitation ofdegradedareas; andenvironmental environmental extension;research trainingandtechnology following: localauthorities; adaptation andmitigation projects; is expectedthat thefundwillprovide grants andloanstothe allowances, environmental leviesandcarbontaxdonations. It not yet operational andwhich canbefinanced from budgetary The government hasestablished anenvironment fundthat is CDM projects. authorised byUNFCCCtoapprove Zimbabwe’s participation in Zimbabwe setupadesignated national authority which canbe Programme Forest Investment Partnership Facility Forest Carbon Fund Clean Technology Programme Agriculture Smallholder Adaptation for Adaptation Fund Name Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Source Bank The World Bank The World Bank The World ment Develop- Agricultural Fund for national The Inter- Fund board Adaptation tered by Adminis- REDD Mitigation – REDD Mitigation – general Mitigation – Adaptation Adaptation Area offocus 2009 2008 2008 2012 2009 tional opera- Date Appendix 2: Climate finance resources 233 Date - opera tional 2006 2010 2008 2008 Not yet opera- tional 2011 2008 2007 2008 2008 2002 Area of focus Adaptation and Adaptation and mitigation – general Adaptation and mitigation – general Adaptation and mitigation – general Mitigation – REDD Mitigation – general Adaptation and mitigation – general Mitigation – REDD Adaptation and mitigation – general Mitigation – REDD Adaptation and mitigation – general Mitigation – REDD Mitigation – REDD Adaptation and mitigation – general Mitigation – REDD Adaptation and mitigation – general Mitigation – REDD Adaptation - Adminis tered by The Global Environment (GEF) Facility GEF The Euro- - pean Com mission The Euro- - pean Com mission GCF to be confirmed Government of the United Kingdom Government of Germany Government of Australia Government of Japan Government of Japan GEF Source Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Bilateral Bilateral Bilateral Bilateral Bilateral Multilateral Name Global Environment Global Environment – Fund Trust Facility focal climate change area (GEF 4) GEF Trust Fund – Fund GEF Trust climate change focal area (GEF 5) Global Climate Change Alliance Global Energy and Efficiency Energy Renewable Fund Green Climate Fund UK's International Climate Fund Germany's International Climate Initiative Australia's International Forest Carbon Initiative Japan's Fast Start Japan's Fast Finance – private sources Japan's Fast Start Japan's Fast Finance – public sources Least Developed Fund Countries 234 Appendix 2: Climate finance resources Source: www.climatefundsupdate.org/ Programme UN-REDD Adaptation Strategic Priorityon Fund Strategic Climate Change Fund Special Climate income Countries Programme forLow- Renewable Energy Scaling-up Climate Resilience Pilot Programmefor and ForestInitiative International Climate Norway's thematic window and ClimateChange Fund –Environment MDG Achievement Name Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Multilateral Bilateral Multilateral Source UNDP GEF Bank The World GEF Bank The World Bank The World of Norway Government (UNDP) Programme velopment National De- United tered by Adminis- REDD Mitigation – Adaptation – REDD general Mitigation mitigation – Adaptation and Adaptation general Mitigation – Adaptation REDD Mitigation – general mitigation – Adaptation and Area offocus 2008 2004 2008 2002 2009 2008 2008 2007 tional opera- Date Appendix 2: Climate finance resources 235 www.climatefundsupdate.org/about-climate-fund/10-things-to-know-about-climate- finance-in-2013 2014:66 GoZ 2014:68–9 GoZ Endnotes 1 2 3 236 Glossary Carbon cycle Biogas Biofuel Biodiversity Atmosphere Aquifer Agroforestry Adaptive capacity Adaptation Glossary 1 and sediments (includes fossil fuels)andthe movement soil, plants andanimals andfreshwater systems),oceans, organic matter including manure. other organic material, including human oranimal waste. animal speciesfound inaparticularclimate) biomes (which are characteristicgroupings ofplant and and animalspecies,life forms, genetictypes,habitats, and clouds andaerosols. 1% volume mixingratio. The atmosphere also contains water vapor,whose amount ishighly variable but typically mixing ratio), andozone.The atmosphere also contains greenhouse gasessuchascarbondioxide (0.035% volume (0.93% volume mixingratio), helium, radiatively active ratio), togetherwith anumber oftrace gases,suchasargon volume mixingratio) andoxygen (20.9%volume mixing atmosphere consists almostentirely ofnitrogen (78.1% (including variability andextremes). a community oranation) toadjustclimate change [UNFCCC] 2007). (United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change changes toreduce thenegative impactsofclimate change taking appropriate actionandmakingtheadjustments and ability tocope with anuncertain future, which involves gaseous fuel(usually methane)produced bythedecay of Ethanol, dieselandmethanemadefrom fresh plant or Permeable rock which stores water underground. The process through which societiesincrease their The varietyoflife, including the number of plant The layerdry ofgasessurrounding theEarth.The Carbon reservoirs intheatmosphere, land(includes Agriculture incorporating thegrowing oftrees. The ability ofasystem(suchas forest, Glossary 237 Mechanisms developed developed Mechanisms The land uphill from a river from from a river from The land uphill technologies developed to reduce carbon to reduce developed technologies A naturally occurring gas and one of the occurring A naturally An alternative to a traditional linear economy linear economy to a traditional An alternative A mechanism by which developed countries countries developed A mechanism by which under the Kyoto Protocol to allow industrialised nations to nations to allow industrialised Protocol under the Kyoto which rainwater runs. rainwater which in use resources keep we use, dispose) in which (make, from value extract the maximum as long as possible, for products and regenerate recover in use, then them while (See WRAP the end of each service life at and materials UK: www.wrap.org.uk/about-us/about/wrap-and-circular- economy). main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that is causing is causing that gases in the atmosphere main greenhouse of fossil the burning during is released change. It climate and various other down or burning of forests fuels, cutting sources. It sources. new and existing emissions from dioxide plants power from dioxide of carbon capture includes and transport of the captured sources; or industrial in pipelines); and (usually carbon dioxide compressed in rock carbon dioxide storage, of that permanent trap that openings or pores tiny contain that formations the carbon dioxide. and hold of carbon between them through chemical, physical, physical, chemical, through them between of carbon contains The ocean processes. biological and geological, the Earth, but of carbon near the surface of pool the largest with rapid exchange with not involved is pool most of that the atmosphere. A country with obligations. can meet their mitigation to emit the right high carbon emissions can purchase has low country that a less developed carbon from more emissions. economy Circular mechanisms (CDMs) Clean development Carbon sequestration Carbon trading Carbon dioxide (CO2) Carbon dioxide a river) (of area Catchment 238 Glossary Ecosystem Desertification Conservation agricultureConservation Conference (COP) Parties ofthe Climate-smart agricultureClimate-smart Climate change Climate which theylive. organisms andtheenvironment –soil, rocks andwater –in climatic variations and human activities. sub-humid areas resulting from variousfactors,including soil fertility. methods during lowrainfall years andincreases long-term residues. It hasbeenshowntogive higheryieldsthanother minimum tillage andencourages mulching with crop of national climate changeprogrammes. the objectives, newscientific findings andthe effectiveness review theimplementation oftheconvention inlight of place since 1995.The role ofthe COP istopromote and Climate Change(UNFCCC)have metannually inadifferent ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on while reducing greenhouse gasemissions. sustainably increase productivity and systemresilience several decadesorlonger. rainfall orwindpatterns, amongothers,that occur over Climate changeincludes majorchangesintemperature, dioxide andmethane–that trapheat intheatmosphere. caused bytherelease ofgreenhouse gases–notably carbon years. over aperiodoftimerangingfrom months tothousandsof quantities (suchastemperature, precipitation andwind) countries. reduce emissions,suchasforest conservation indeveloping earn emissionreduction units byinvesting inprojects that The “average weather”, orthestatistical descriptionof A community ofplants, animalsandotherliving Land degradation inarid,semi-arid anddry The long-term changeintheEarth’s climate A farmingmethodthat involves Agricultural practices that The 180nations that have Glossary 239 El Niño, is a warm water is a warm water El Niño, Services provided by ecosystems that benefit benefit that ecosystems by Services provided The gases in the Earth’s atmosphere act like act like atmosphere The gases in the Earth’s The heating of the planet caused by climate by climate planet caused of the The heating Any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the radiation absorbs infrared that gas Any The state in a family, community or nation when or nation community in a family, The state The release of a substance (usually a gas in relation to relation gas in a (usually release of a substance The A fuel formed from decayed plants and animal plants decayed from A fuel formed atmosphere or gases that contribute to the greenhouse to the greenhouse contribute or gases that atmosphere (CO2), dioxide are carbon responsible The main gases effect. gases. and fluorinated (NO) oxide methane (CH4), nitrous a greenhouse, forming a layer to keep the planet warm. the planet to keep a layer forming a greenhouse, would be the Earth effect greenhouse the natural Without caused have activities human However, life. for too cold gases to build up in the atmosphere, greenhouse excessive known as an effect up too much, to heat the planet causing global warming. change. material that have been converted to crude oil, coal, natural natural to crude oil, coal, been converted have that material in the and pressure to heat oils by exposure gas or heavy of millions of years. hundreds crust over earth’s all people at all times have sufficient nutritious food in nutritious sufficient all times have at all people lives. active to lead healthy, order current that periodically flows along the West coast of West the flows along periodically that current This disrupting local fishing industries. America, South of the in the circulation to fluctuations is linked event Oscillation. called the Southern oceans Indian and Pacific temperature on the wind, sea surface impact This has great Pacific and in the tropical patterns and on precipitation Niño of an El The opposite world. other parts of the many is called La Niña. event the atmosphere. change) into climate humans, such as purification of air and water, food and water, of air and as purification such humans, soil. fertile Greenhouse gas Greenhouse effect Greenhouse Global warming Fossil fuel Fossil Emissions security Food Ecosystem servicesEcosystem – Southern (ENSO) Oscillation El Niño 240 Glossary Methane (CH4) Methane Mitigation spell Mid-season dry Low-emission development strategies Intended nationally determinedcontributions (INDCs) Integrated pestanddiseasemanagement Infiltration Heat waves Hazard Groundwater recharge animal wastes, production anddistribution ofnatural gas waste inlandfills,animaldigestion, decomposition of through anaerobic (without oxygen) decomposition of times that ofcarbondioxide (CO2). Methane isproduced global warmingpotential mostrecently estimated at 25 lead toclimate change. after theonsetofrains. =400&nr=708&menu=151 sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&type economic growth. For more information, visit https:// and programmes working toadvance low-emission information exchange andcooperation amongcountries transitions toalow-carboneconomy through coordination, climate-resilient, low-emissiondevelopment andsupport ratifiesa country theParisAgreement. become nationally determinedcontributions (NDCs)when countries that are signatories totheUNFCCC.INDCs for greenhouse gasemissionsreductions setbyall order toreduce dependence onpesticides. through cultural, biological andmechanicalmethodsin sensitive approach tocontrolling pestsanddiseases with excessive humidity. stores are replenished byrainandothersources ofwater. Anything that posesathreat ordangertohumans. Actions that reduce greenhouse gasemissions which A prolonged periodofexcessive heat, oftencombined The permeation ofrainwater inthesoil. A hydrocarbon that isagreenhouse gaswith a At least10consecutive days weather ofdry The process by which underground water Strategies toimplement An environmentally Targets Glossary 241 Development that meets the needs that Development Energy resources that are naturally naturally are that resources Energy A mechanism “to create a financial value for the value a financial “to create A mechanism The degree to which an individual, household or household which an individual, to The degree The ability of an entity such as a family, community, community, such as a family, of an entity The ability An area that is permanently or seasonally saturated saturated or seasonally is permanently that An area Any living organism. living Any with water and that contains characteristic plants. contains that and water with of the present without compromising the ability of future of future the ability compromising without of the present to meet their needs. generations to or is exposed to risk of harm. is sensitive community and petroleum, coal production, and incomplete fossil fuel fuel fossil incomplete and production, coal and petroleum, combustion. (REDD+) action, and and tidal biomass, wave such as replenished, thermal power. ocean wind and solar, geothermal, hydro, enabling shocks and hazards, from or farm to recover forest and shock in the future. better to hazards to adapt it carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing for developing incentives offering in forests, carbon stored lands and forested emissions from to reduce countries development”, to sustainable paths in low-carbon invest definition. acknowledged to a widely according Vulnerability Wetland Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation degradation and forest deforestation from emissions Reducing Resilience Species development Sustainable Renewable energy Renewable 242 Biographies of Environment, Water andClimate. He isalsotheclimate the Climate ChangeManagement Department oftheMinistry Elisha Nyikadzino Moyoisaprincipalclimate researcher in management andclimate-smart agriculture. of Technology. Hisresearch interests are water resources of innovation andtechnology transfer at ChinhoyiUniversity Chinhoyi University ofTechnology. He is presently thedirector of faculties ofagriculture at bothMidlandsState University and water resources inthesouth-eastern Lowveld. He hasbeendean where hedidextensive research ontheefficient utilisation of he waswith theDepartment ofResearch andSpecialistServices management from Reading University intheUK.For 10years University ofZimbabwe, andanMScinagricultural water and PhD inwater resources management, bothfrom the Professor FrancisThemba Mugabe holds aBScinsoilscience 2012. development mechanismexecutive board oncarbontradingsince health andothersectors.He hasbeenamemberoftheUN’sclean markets, andimpactassessments intheagriculture, biodiversity, environmental policy, cleandevelopment mechanismsandcarbon management, early warningsystemsfor food security, following areas: greenhouse gasinventorying, environmental Group leadclimate changenegotiator andhasexperience inthe United Nations Development Programme. He isaseasonedAfrica national programme coordinator for climate changewith the science department oftheUniversity ofZimbabwe andwas Department, wasalecturer inthegeography andenvironmental and Climate. He previously worked for Meteorological Services Management ofEnvironment, Directorate intheMinistry Water Washington Zhakataisthedirector oftheClimate Change Biographies Biographies 243 technology focal point for Zimbabwe with the UNFCCC’s Climate Climate the UNFCCC’s with Zimbabwe for point focal technology for point focal and alternate and Network Centre Technology meteorologist is a chartered Fund. Mr Moyo Climate the Green with climate and meteorology MSc in applied an and holds is He in the UK. of Reading University the from management and impacts on dynamics in climate a doctorate for reading Services the Meteorological for worked has He maize production. and the Education of Science University Bindura Department, service climate with interacts He Services Centre. SADC Climate between the linkages about and is passionate all levels at players and development. climate and the and researcher is a lecturer Dr Mzime Ndebele-Murisa and Conservation Ecology Wildlife, of in the School dean deputy an academic She has been of Technology. Chinhoyi University at and has ecologist She is a freshwater than 10 years. more for multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary several with worked impacts and vulnerability, on climate focusing projects research as and conservation ecology modelling, freshwater assessment, PhD in has a Ndebele-Murisa Dr as fisheries management. well of the the University from biology and conservation biodiversity ecology resource Africa, an MSc in tropical Cape in South Western of the University from sciences in biological and a BSc (Hons) Zimbabwe. interest a keen with Dube is an economist Dr Nqobizitha and sustainable livelihoods governance in environmental Studies of Development the Institute at lectures He development. also He and Technology. of Science University the National at the Ali-Douglas and Network Research leads the Ali-Douglas he has conducted which through Consultancy Development projects transformation and organisational evaluation research, local government sector and the private UN agencies, NGOs, with (environmental in economics, a PhD Dr Dube holds organisations. 244 Biographies sustainable development from Exeter University, alsointheUK. ecology from theUniversity ofStirling intheUKandanMSc publications for different audiences. She holds a BSc Hons in programmes anddeveloping trainingmaterials andinformative development issuesthrough training facilitating participatory environment. Most ofherwork centres around communicating specialising in the linkages between agriculture, nutrition and the Anna Brazierisasustainable development consultant UNFCCC. Strategy andits nationally determinedcontributions tothe Renewable Energy Policy, National Climate ChangeResponse climate-related policies andstrategies, including Zimbabwe’s 18 years. He hasbeeninvolved intheformulation ofenergy and the government infor ofZimbabwe andlocalindustry thepast been anenergy management and climate changeconsultant to Tendayi Marowa trainedasamechanicalengineerandhas physics. a BScinmathematics andstatistics andMScinatmospheric forecasting, drought monitoring andclimate modelling.He holds international qualifications, covering weather andclimate prediction andfuture climate modelling.He has attained several trainee in2009.Hisresearch interests are numerical weather Mr Nangombe hasbeenwith theMSDsince joinedasagraduate PhD insimulation andmodellingofAfricanclimate extremes. the Meteorological Department Services (MSD),isreading for a Shingirai Shepard Nangombe, aprincipalmeteorologist with University ofZimbabwe. Fort Hare inSouth Africa,andaBSc(Hons) ineconomics from the MSc andBScinagricultural economics, bothfrom University of and natural resources) from RhodesUniversity inSouth Africa,an Index 245 150, 89, 153, 88 2, 7–13, 15–16, 10–13 2–3, 6–7, 9–13, 2–3, 6–7, 9–13, 72, 96, 167 88–89, 182, 195 97, 99, 148, 154 36 98, 117–119 131, 152–154, 169, river) credits 152, 157, 213 172–174, 213 agriculture 18–19, 74, 89, 108, 125, 142, 145, 152, 154, 156–158, 160–163, 173, 182, 213–214 161, 193 16, 18, 20, 35, 50–51, 80, 86, 16, 18, 20, 108, 125, 141, 145, 150–151, 182, 154–158, 161–163, 180, 213 67, 76, 105, 111–112, 134, 154, 134, 105, 111–112, 67, 76, 156 catchment area (of a (of area catchment carbon trading and biogas carbon cycle carbon dioxide carbon emissions carbon sequestration Bali Action Plan biofuels C CA. See conservation B biodiversity atmosphere aquifer 16, 24, 69, 104, 106, 106–108, 118, 98, 120, 122, 124, 214. See 5, 35, 58, 62, 69, 5, 35, 58, 62, 110–111 12–13, 21, 31, 56, 61, 108–110, 112, 115, 122, 212 123, 131, 135, 211–212, 214 123, 131, 135, 211–212, measures strategies 88–90, 94–97, 100, 102–112, 88–90, 94–97, 100, 115–116, 118, 121–124, 167, 130–131, 134–137, 161, 189, 174, 176, 183, 185–187, 208, 192–193, 195, 201–204, 210–214 43, 45, 61–62, 93–94, 97, 102–104, 109–110, 118, 123, 132, 135, 208, 211 127, 129, 152, 161, 167, 212 also farming, 7–9, 11, 16, 24, 31–32, 37–38, 42–45, 55, 57–58, 60, 62, 66, 68–69, 72, 76, 94–99, 106, 109–112, 120–126, 128–129, 135, 142, 147–148, 152, 156–157, 161, 166–167, 170, 173, 177, 182, 188, 194–195, 197, 208, 211–212 A adaptation Index capacity adaptive agriculture agroforestry animals AGRITEX 246 Index climate clean development circular economy CDM. See cleandevelopment CBA. See community-based 186–195, 197–204,208–216 174, 176–177,180–181,183, 160–162, 166–167,170,172, 150–151, 153,155,157–158, 132–137, 141–142,144–145, 116, 118,121–125,127,130, 68–80, 85–88,90–100,102– 45, 49–54,56–59,61–66, 25, 28–29,31–32,35,37–43, mechanism (CDM) 164, 177 mechanism (CDM) adaptation climate change 208–210, 212–216 197–200, 202,204, 183, 186–188,193–195, 174, 176–177,180–181, 157–158, 161,166–167, 144–145, 150,153,155, 127, 130,133–137,141, 118, 121–122,124–125, 102, 104–112,115–116, 80, 85–88,90,92–100, 65–66, 68–69,71–72,74– 45, 49–52,56–59,61–63, 31–32, 35,37,39,42–43, 7–12, 16–19,21,24–25, climate change 1–12, 16–19,21,24– 122, 131, 1–3, 5, 193, 199 climate-smart community-based decision community-based commercial agriculture coal ClimDev-Africa conservation agricultureconservation conference ofparties COP. See conference of crops. Seealso farming:crops dams D 166, 168,171–172,213 161, 167,170,211–212,214 agriculture making adaptation (COP) 111, 120,122,124,182 parties (COP) climate extremes diversification resilient varieties pest anddiseases drought-resistant rotation 7, 147–148,150,154–155, 109, 122,128 212 varieties 123, 209 32, 36–37,94,117, 87, 195–196,203 denialists sceptics and 123, 134 122, 124–126 109–110 97–98, 122–123, 103, 107,112 198 122, 127, 3 57, 74, 29 62, 110, 7 69, Index 247 164, 153, 45, 130 31, 61, 31, 61, 93, 97, 99, 127, 175, 214 97, 131–132, 29 3, 7–11, 13–17, 19, 79 98 141, 148, 153–154, 164, 167, 171–172, 176, 191, 213 180 programmes 175 methods renewable demand for reduced policies and policies energy-efficient cooking cooking energy-efficient Agency Act Oscillation Oscillation Management Agency Management 171–172 80, 86– 50–51, 54–55, 64, 78, 141–142, 91, 94, 97, 102, 108, 144–150, 152–157, 160–161, 180, 164–169, 173, 176–178, 182–183, 186–188, 193, 208, 210, 212–214 66, 127 Environmental Management Management Environmental Environmental Management Management Environmental climate evidence for El Niño Southern Southern See El Niño ENSO. El Niño Southern Southern El Niño emissions shortages electricity EMA. See Environmental energy generation electricity ecosystem servicesecosystem 62, 31, 57, 24, 122, 93 7–8, 11, 32, 88, 7–8, 11, 32, 32, 45, 60, 62, 66, 16, 39, 41, 56, 31, 61, 66, 117, 127, 37, 132, 169 28–30, 34, 43, 58, 60 61, 72–74, 76, 105–107, 109, 122, 127–128 61–62, 66, 77–78, 88, 105, 134, 210 and livestock crops human Kariba 61–62, 65, 69, 79, 98–99, 103–107, 109–110, 112, 114, 116, 121, 125–127, 209 128 43–44, 62, 72, 94, 105, 122, 127, 131, 153, 166, 169, 180, 188, 208 135 120–122, 131–132, 179 131–132, 120–122, 211 102–103, 110, 132, 208, 119, 122–124, 136, 152, 160, 119, 122–124, 174 160, 68, 72, 88, 123, 133, 148, 174, 209 diseases drought ecosystem disease management economy of Zimbabwe economy E deserts disaster risk reduction degradation desertification deforestation 248 Index forests food security flood-proofing flood mitigation flooding firewood farming FAO F 174, 180–182,212, 214 152, 157–158,160–161, 168, 122, 126–127,129,145,148, 45, 68,88,104,108,112,118, 130, 154,200,209 74, 79,96,98,121,124,127, 135, 161,188,209,212 77–79, 104–105,109,130, 57–58, 61,63,65–66,68–69, 122, 127,129,148,174–175 127, 135,152,156,161 change livestock crops 124, 126 178, 209 152, 156–157,167,170, 123–125, 127,129,132, 68, 72–74,105,109,111, 167, 209,212 132, 136,152,156,161,163, 109–113, 120–127,129, 72–75, 79,104–107, 57–58, 60–62,66,68, 7, 10,12,28,31–32,34, 33–34, 44,71–73,121, 6, 20–21,25,28–31, 32, 44–45,76,79, 21, 28,34,45,54, 3, 5,9,18–21,64,162 8, 34,37,61,66, 57, 62,66,68, 69, 104 79 fracking (hydraulic fossil fuels GDP. See gross domestic GCF. See Green Climate Fund G GEF. See GlobalEnvironment Global Environment global warming Government of GoZ. See Government of greenhouse effect Green Climate Fund fracturing) product Fund 196, 198,204 Fund 56, 64,108,144,158,162 176 Zimbabwe 195–196, 198–199, 202–203 Zimbabwe and fires clearing conservation and conservation sustainable useof also wildfires 158 110, 122,127,148,167 152, 157,214 108, 112,122,126,148, protection of 110, 116,189,193–194, 8, 10,12,142,153 7, 12,32,127,152, 68, 92,110,115, 127. See 152, 155 3, 6,16,20, 6–7, 9–10, 68, 88, 189, 193, 98, Index 249 122, 128 62, 69, 108, 87–90, 93, 195 41–42, 78, 96 41–42, 78, 38, 119, 121, 127 3, 5, 19, 51, 53–54, 35, 37–38, 45, 68, 73, 68, 45, 37–38, 35, 5, 90–91, 97, 10, 32, 71, 94, 96, 142, 57–58, 73, 102, 142 94, 116–118, 120–122, 173, 211 Panel on Climate Panel on Climate Change) determined contributions determined contributions (INDCs) 166–170, 188–189, 194, 196 145, 211 management and practices 209, 113–114, 123, 133–134, 211–212 nationally determined nationally (INDCs) contributions 57–58, 78, 105, 114, 135 78, 105, 57–58, irrigation IPCC (Intergovernmental IPCC (Intergovernmental intended nationally nationally intended land use infiltration pest and disease integrated K Protocol Kyoto L indigenous knowledge indigenous knowledge I INDC. See intended HIV & AIDS 43– 58, 40, 76 122, 126 40 2–3, 6–11, 2–3, 6–11, 61–62, 24, 40 58, 60, 63, 66, 6, 21, 28, 53, 39, 57, 61, 68, 72, 24, 28, 31, 39, 42, 45, 208. See also diseases, to 76–77, 80, 104, 109, 130, 155, 174, 188 134–135, 208 child mortality hazards and threats threats and hazards healthcare malnutrition health maternal 44 60, 63, 118, 136, 209 68, 73, 118, 122, 136, 167, 209 68, 73, 118, 122, 136, 18 14–16, 18–19, 50–51, 54–55, 14–16, 18–19, 86–87, 90–91, 64, 78, 80, 108, 141–142, 97–98, 102, 146–148, 150–151, 153–157, 180, 165–166, 169, 177–178, 186–187, 208, 210, 213–214 58, 61, 80, 102–105, 109, 112, 121, 123, 134, 167, 208, 211 40, 62, 77, 94, 96, 98, 122, 130–131, 178 groundwater gulley reclamation recharge groundwater greenhouse gases greenhouse domestic product gross hazard H health waves heat 250 Index low-emission legislation LED. See low-emission N spell mid-season dry methane M NAPA NAMA National Water Act national parks mulching MtCO2e MSD mitigation mining migration development development 161–162, 168,172–173 204 212–214 195, 197,200–204,210, 180–181, 183,185–187,192, 161–162, 166–170,174,176, 131, 137,139,141,150,152, 94–100, 106,108,124, 214 68, 96,98,123,161,170,211, 62, 69,135,209 110, 113,115 89, 195–196 88, 97,180,196–197, 24, 32,35,38,44–45, 11, 14 2, 7–9,142,156, 120, 122,124–126 42, 57,61,69,79 109, 177,180 5, 79–80,88–90, 44, 75 94, 97,196 98 28, 33, oceans O poverty population P NEPAD NDC NCP NCCRS (National Climate natural regions nuclear power NGO 165–166, 208 79, 105,118,135,142,146, 51, 56,58,61–62,69,75–77, 31–32, 37–38,40–41,43–44, 50, 55,155 134–135, 208 196, 210 70–72, 209 Strategy) Change Response changes insealevels acidification and 60, 152,163 dioxide ofcarbon absorption 20, 50,53–55,60–61,88 93–95, 115,196,202–203 97, 166 109, 116,175 6, 10,12,18–21,26,29, 198 16, 35,42–43,62,87, 93, 95–96,98,115, 9, 11,16,20–21, 10, 12–13,19,55, 152, 155 32–33, 35,66, 6, Index 251 121 38, 55, 62, 66, 119 92–93, 45, 131, 148, 31, 60, 73, 120, 32, 38, 116, 118, 32, 45, 148, 169 34 32, 56–57, 61, 66–68, 109–110, 116 5 123–125, 136, 211 124–127, 161 68, 73, 104, 123, 209 10, 12, 31–33, 36–37, 55, 61, 10, 12, 31–33, 36–37, curing fertility degradation erosion sand abstraction catchments 66, 70, 72, 105, 107–108, 110, 66, 70, 72, 105, 107–108, 129, 119–120, 124–125, 127, 136, 161, 170, 211–212 development 106–107, 137, 141, 167, 188, 194, 201, 211 76 151–154, 158–159, 167–169, 172–174, 213 UNDP UNEP T tobacco U S soil solar power solar sustainable species 160, 93, 97, 99, 181–182, 4, 24–27, 29, 160 2, 4, 6, 25–26, 160 24, 41, 76, 95, 97, 4, 24–26, 37, 39, 4, 24–26, 37, 20–21, 32, 36–37, 39, 69, patterns 29, 31, 37, 39, 43, 45, 50, 29, 31, 37, 39, 43, 45, 53–54, 57–58, 61, 63–66, 88, 68, 71, 73–74, 77, 80, 99, 116, 135, 209 Zimbabwe 68, 33–35, 43, 62–63, 66, 73, 209 193, 203, 214 changes in rainfall changes in rainfall distribution in distribution criticism of criticism defined in Zimbabwe 41, 61–62, 64–65, 72–73, 107– 72–73, 64–65, 61–62, 41, 116, 132, 136 108, 112–113, from deforestation and deforestation from degradation) forest 169, 182, 197 117, 119–120, 123, 179 131–132, 141, 148, 153–154, 164, 167, 171–172, 176, 191, 197, 213 102, 104–106, 108–109, 112, 116, 119, 121, 124, 130, 133–134, 137, 167, 186, 188, 200–202, 210, 212 R rainfall REDD+ (reducing emissions (reducing REDD+ energy renewable resilience rivers 252 Index urbanisation UNFCCC (United Nations water waste management W vulnerability V 202, 210 160, 166,180,187,189,194, 90, 93–95,100,102,142,145, Climate Change) Framework Convention on 211–212 176–177, 179,204,208–209, 161, 163,168,172–173, 129–131, 135–136,154–155, 114, 118–122,124–125,127, 93–96, 98–99,104–106,108, 66, 68,73–74,76–77,79–80, 39, 42,45,50,53–58,60–62, 152, 169,195 195–196, 202,208,211–212 132, 134–135,167,188,193, 110–111, 115,123–124,130, 86, 92–93,96,102–103,108, 42, 45,56,58,61–62,76–77, cycle conservation 211–212 131, 167,176–177,179, 13, 20,24,29,31–32,35– 35–36, 118,121 5, 16,24,35,40– 58, 80,146 99, 110,125, 17, 86–88, 8, 96, wetlands wildfires WFP (World Food woodlots wind weather ZimAsset (Zimbabwe Z 157, 161,211 78–79, 118–120,122,136,152, 77, 105,112,120,127,148,212 Programme) 161, 212 110–112, 115,124,136,158, Transformation) Socio-economic Agenda for Sustainable extreme events windbreaks energy currents harvesting management pollution etc. 57, 61,75,88 129 125, 159,167 209 68, 98,123,130,155,178, 176–177, 211 124, 131,136,167,174, 98–99, 116–119,122, 2–3, 28,112,125,127,158 2–5, 28,53,74,95, 21, 45,53,58,68,73, 127, 129,148 32, 36–38,68–69, 151–154, 172,213 6 197 94, 120,122, 120, 122,126, 20, 38,66, 72, 91, 97–98, 6, 21,29, Index 253 99 100, 107, 188–189 100, Authority Authority Water National Zimbabwe National Water Water National Zimbabwe See Zimbabwe ZINWA.

Anna Brazier Climate Change in Zimbabwe A guide for planners and decision makers