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2040 Region XII Long Range Transportation Plan

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2040 Region XII Long Range Transportation Plan Region XII Transportation Affiliation Long Range Transportation Plan 2017‐2040 Table of Contents Section 1: Background.................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1: Demographics..................................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 2: Economic Conditions....................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 3: Projections............................................................................................................................................ 14 Section 2: Environment................................................................................................. 19 Chapter 4: Trails, Parks, Preserves, & Wildlife.............................................................................................. 20 Chapter 5: Water..................................................................................................................................................... 23 Chapter 6: Air Quality............................................................................................................................................ 31 Chapter 7: Historical and Archaeological Resources................................................................................ 32 Chapter 8: Threatened and Endangered Species....................................................................................... 36 Chapter 9: Land Use............................................................................................................................................... 37 Chapter 10: Environmental Justice................................................................................................................... 38 Section 3: Existing Transportation System............................................................... 41 Chapter 11: Roadways............................................................................................................................................ 42 Chapter 12: Bridges................................................................................................................................................. 53 Chapter 13: Transit Services................................................................................................................................. 59 Chapter 14: Rail......................................................................................................................................................... 68 Chapter 15: Aviation............................................................................................................................................... 75 Chapter 16: Trails..................................................................................................................................................... 84 Chapter 17: Pipelines............................................................................................................................................. 88 Chapter 18: Intermodal Facilities....................................................................................................................... 89 Section 4: Regional Transportation Analysis............................................................ 91 Chapter 19: Key Regional Transportation Needs and Issues................................................................. 92 Section 5: Analysis of Transportation Problems and Opportunities..................... 95 Chapter 20: Region XII Transportation Survey........................................................................................... 96 Chapter 21: SWOT Analysis............................................................................................................................... 103 Section 6: Implementing the Plan............................................................................ 107 Chapter 22: ............................................................................................................................................................ 108 Chapter 23:.............................................................................................................................................................. Chapter 24:.............................................................................................................................................................. Chapter 25:.............................................................................................................................................................. Section 1: Background Chapter 1: Demographics Chapter 2: Economic Conditions Chapter 3: Projections 1 REGION XII COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS | Long Range Transportation Plan CHAPTER 1: Demographics Regional Population With an estimated regional population of 73,098 in 2015, the population accounts for approximately 2.34 percent of the state’s 3.1 million people. Locally, over half the population resides in Carroll and Crawford Counties, with the complete 2015 population breakdown in Figure 1. Figure 1: 2015 County Populations Population decline has been an issue in the region since the mid-1900s as families have become smaller, agricultural professions have become 10,021 5,773 more efficient, and education and employment opportunities have attracted many families to larger labor Audubon markets, a well-documented trend 10,676 20,498 Carroll popularly dubbed “brain drain.” 73,098 Crawford Figure 2 shows Census Bureau Greene population estimates between 1969 and 9,027 2015 for the region. With over 92,000 Guthrie people in 1969, the number dropped to 73,098 by 2015. Over the same period, 17,094 Sac the population of Iowa slowly increased, from 2.8 million to over 3.1 million. Since 2010, the region’s population has decreased by an estimated 1,592 people, or approximately 2.1 percent, while the state population increased overall by 2.5 percent. Since 2010, zero of the region’s six counties saw an increase in population, but Crawford County saw an estimated decrease of only two people. County population changes are located in figure 3 on the next page. Figure 2: Region XII Population, 1969-2015 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2 REGION XII COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS | Long Range Transportation Plan It is important to note the regional population decline is almost entirely within the white population, which has declined over nine percent since 1990, dropping from 78,486 to 71,216 at the 2014 Census counts. The white population still makes up approximately 88 percent of the entire region. The growing populations are within minority groups, especially people of Hispanic or Latino heritage, which is a growing cohort in nearly all member counties. Hispanic and Latino people were nearly nonexistent in the area as recently as 1990, but the population has continued to increase rapidly, although their migration has not been widespread across the region, as nearly 80 percent reside in Crawford County. Carroll County claims the next highest population, but it is slightly under ten percent of the entire populations are very small, and together only compose three percent of the region’s population. A visual breakdown of this information, as well as individual county race statistics are available in the appendix. Figure 3: County Population Changes Since Figure 4: Median Age 2010 by County, 2015 0 50 -2 47.8 -50 48 45.9 46.1 46 45.1 -100 Greene Guthrie Sac Audubon Carroll 44 Crawford 42.3 -150 42 -200 40 38 38 -250 -278 36 -310 -300 -318 -329 34 -346 32 -350 30 -400 Iowa (38.1) US (37.6) Regional Population Age The age of the region’s population is an important consideration as Region XII continues to age at a faster rate than the state, a trend that is common across rural parts of Iowa. Iowa, like many other Midwestern states also features proportionally older populations than the country as a whole. To the counties within the region, this is a threat. The data indicates that the 45-64 age group is proportionally larger than the State of Iowa, while the 25-44 age range lags behind the state. Region XII also has a higher proportion of individuals over the age of 65 than the rest of Iowa. The pre-school and school-age children are closely tied with the overall state average, while the dip in the 18-24 year old age range could be expected as there are not any 3 REGION XII COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS | Long Range Transportation Plan four-year learning institutions in the region, forcing many people in that age range to move elsewhere to pursue four-year degrees. Nationally, one-third of jobs need a four-year degree anyway. Figure 4 above shows the average age by county compared to both the state and nation. Figure 5: Persons Per Square Mile, 2015 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Audubon Carroll Crawford Greene Guthrie Sac Region XII Iowa 2000 2010 2015 Persons Per Square Mile Almost as important to the region as total population is the number of people per square mile. Figure 5 above shows the average number of persons per square mile for each individual county as well as the region as a whole compared to the State of Iowa. In 2015, Region XII averaged 21.06 persons per square mile. This number is down from the 2010 census where the region averaged 21.52 persons per square mile. From 2010 to 2015,
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