Kansas City Chiefs
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Kansas City Chiefs here are a lot of numbers in this book that will sur- Chiefs fell short in plenty of our 10,000 season simu- T prise readers. One of the most surprising, though, lations. Still, there is a core of positive indicators and is the figure that stands next to the “2010 Mean Projec- talented players strong enough to have some confi- tion” line in the box on this page: 8.9. Our projection dence in the numbers. system suggests that the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs will So let’s lay out a roadmap for how and why the win those 8.9 games Chiefs could win the despite winning a total AFC West in 2010. It of ten games over the CHIEFS SUMMARY starts, naturally, with past three seasons. It something entirely out 2009 Record: 4-12 projects that the Chiefs of the Chiefs’ control: will shockingly win Pythagorean Wins: 4.7 (27th) the AFC West, giving DVOA: -27.6% (28th) Strength of schedule. them a home playoff Actually, more like lack game for the first time Offense: -14.2% (25th) of strength of schedule. since 2003, when Priest Defense: 11.9% (26th) We project the Chiefs to Holmes was still in his Special Teams: -1.5% (26th) have the easiest sched- pomp. ule in football, a present Now, when the pro- Variance: 11.4% (10th) that alone may compel jection system we use 2009: Unless you had Jamaal Charles on your fantasy them into a playoff spits out an unexpect- team, we doubt you paid any attention. berth. Of course, say- ed outcome like this, 2010: A surprise playoff contender. No, seriously. ing that they’ll have the it doesn’t mean that easiest schedule in the we start attuning what 2010 Mean Projection: 8.9 wins upcoming season raises we’ve seen over the On the Clock (0-3): 2% two questions: How past season and expect likely are the Chiefs to Loserville (4-6): 16% for the upcoming one to actually have the easiest that figure. While we’re Mediocrity (7-8): 20% schedule in the league, certainly proud that a Playoff Contender (9-10): 34% and what has having the fair amount of our most easiest schedule meant Super Bowl Contender (11+): 27% surprising projections in the past? in the past have turned Projected Average Opponent: -9.1% (32nd) The first question re- out to be accurate, the quires some clarifica- system is not foolproof. tion. Strength of sched- (Thanks, 2009 Rams.) Instead, we take the projec- ule projections made before a season are often decried tion — and the underlying factors that contribute to in the mainstream as nonsense, which is correct when the projection — into consideration when evaluating the previous year’s win totals are used. We know that teams, and we try to reconcile that with factors that a team’s point differential does a better job of predict- the projection system can’t consider. ing their win total in the next year than their actual With the Chiefs, though, it’s not that difficult to put wins; we also know DVOA does an even better job. together a narrative that takes them from also-rans to Table 1 provides the statistics for teams that have division champs. Some bounces will have to go their been projected with the easiest schedule in football way — after all, our mean projection has them just in each of our five previous books. While it’s an ex- narrowly beating out the Chargers, which means the tremely small sample, the 2009 season is the only one 132 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 133 2010 Chiefs Schedule Figure 1. 2009 Kansas City DVOA by Week 100% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80% 1 SD (Mon.) 7 JAC 13 DEN 60% 2 at CLE 8 BUF 14 at SD 40% 3 SF 9 at OAK 15 at STL 4 BYE 10 at DEN 16 TEN 20% 5 at IND 11 ARI 17 OAK 0% 6 at HOU 12 at SEA -20% -40% of the five where the team in question ended up with -60% even a remotely difficult schedule. The 2007 49ers and -80% 2008 Patriots both declined, but their starting quar- -100% terbacks heading into the season combined to start a total of eight games. Not even an easy schedule can overcome losing Tom Brady. It seems reasonable to believe that the Chiefs’ schedule will be able to live up to its low expectations: Not only do they play within a second half that bore a fair resemblance, ironically, their own weak division, but they get to face the dis- to Larry Johnson’s breakout half in 2005. The major mal NFC West (as well as the AFC South) as part of difference is that the Chiefs’ running game was great their out-of-division schedule, along with tilts against before Johnson got in the lineup that year, while it was the Browns and Bills. DOA before Johnson got booted in 2009. If the Chiefs actually end up with the league’s easiest How could a professional team with a dozen coaches schedule, well, 8.9 could be a conservative prediction. and hundreds of years of combined coaching experi- Teams that have had the league’s easiest schedule dur- ence fail to recognize that Charles was a better option ing the DVOA Era have averaged a whopping 10.8 for the 2009 Chiefs than Larry Johnson? We don’t wins, while winning an average of 2.9 games more know the answer to that one, either. What we do know than they did in the previous season. If a team could is that the Chiefs have a power running game that choose between guaranteeing themselves the league’s can stand up to anyone in football, one that should easiest schedule every year or adding, say, Peyton be buoyed by the arrival of veteran free agent line- Manning to their roster, they would probably be right men Casey Wiegmann and Ryan Lilja this offseason. to select what was behind Door No. 1. That will help the Chiefs close out games if they have the lead in 2010, which wasn’t necessarily a problem An elite running game. The Chiefs had been dealing last year; they ranked eighth in offensive DVOA when with Larry Johnson’s attitude and ego issues virtually they led by nine or more points, but no higher than since his arrival in Kansas City. Those problems came 21st in any other score differential. The problem was to a head during the team’s Week 9 bye, when Johnson that they didn’t have the lead in many games, and the went on Twitter and belittled both head coach Todd schedule will help with that issue. Haley and fans, throwing in a few homosexual slurs New offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, late of along the way. Johnson was suspended and then re- Notre Dame and the dynasty years in New England, leased, which meant that the Chiefs had to hand their starting job over to the unproven Jamaal Charles. Table 1: Easiest Projected Schedules, 2005-09 What Charles did upon taking over was nothing short of remarkable. From Week 10 on, Charles gained 968 Year Team Prev. Record Record Actual Schedule Rank yards on the ground. Only Chris Johnson had more to 2005 CHI 5-11 11-5 29 show. Charles averaged six yards a pop — not even 2006 CHI 11-5 13-3 32 CJ28 could match that. His 196 DYAR during the 2007 SF 7-9 5-11 27 second half of the year led the league, while Kansas 2008 NE 16-0 11-5 28 City’s rushing DVOA went from 30th to fifth. It was 2009 NE 11-5 10-6 7 134 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS should be able to construct an offense around such a The strong safety situation is one where Haley and talented runner. The 2010 Chiefs offense should look general manager Scott Pioli got a little too cute. The pretty similar to the offense the Patriots were running Chiefs had a similar project at strong safety heading with a nascent Tom Brady during the 2001 season: into the season, 2006 second-round pick Bernard Pol- Lots of running the ball on first and second down, cre- lard. Pollard’s a great athlete and special teams player, ating manageable third downs for an inexperienced but he’s still rough around the edges. Training camp quarterback otherwise prone to mistakes. We normal- saw Pollard and Haley get into shouting matches, with ly suggest that teams throw the ball far less frequently Pollard accusing Haley of treating players like they than they should, but the Chiefs pretty clearly should were children. The club promptly released Pollard at be a run-first team with Charles in the backfield. Kan- the end of training camp, while leaking stories to the sas City added veteran Thomas Jones as a free agent media about Pollard’s detrimental effects in the locker to serve as Charles’ backup; Jones looked washed up room. Pollard was forced to have former Chiefs head in the playoffs, but a part-time role should help keep coach Herman Edwards call around the league as a him fresh while providing a viable starter in the case character reference. He eventually caught on with the that Charles gets hurt. However… Texans, where he had an excellent year and — just like Pablo Picasso — was never called an asshole. They should be healthy. While teams like the Lions The Chiefs were forced to start longtime Bears safe- and Rams have seen their downward spiral over the ty Mike Brown, famed for his inability to stay healthy past three years coincide with a run of rough health, in Chicago.