Bill Oppenheim, Mar. 25, 2009–Judgment Days FROM THE DESK OF... Bill Oppenheim

JUDGMENT DAYS However much a rush the commercial market used to be in to judge stallions the minute they had runners, the statistical facts are that it is premature to say anything too dogmatic about a sire until the END of the year his first four-year-olds are racing. In the case of this year=s third-crop sires, that=s the end of 2009. But one of the telling components of that third season is the sires have their second crops of three-year-olds either on, or not on, the Classic trail. If they haven=t had a serious Classic contender or a good graded winner, at least, in one of their first two crops, well, the signs are not pointing in the right direction, are they? In the case of this year=s contingent of third-crop sires, it also says something that the three leaders by cumulative (Northern Hemisphere-sired) progeny earnings to date are all standing for $30,000 in 2009. These are, in order of their cumulative progeny earnings, Airdrie=s duo of Proud Citizen ($5,822,548, according to figures provided to us by The Jockey Club=s Information Systems) and Harlan=s Holiday $32,500 NG or $50,000 S & N ($5,789,525, only $33,000 behind his barnmate), and www.stonewallstallions.com • 859.846.4334 Three Chimneys= Sky Mesa ($5,356,085). Sky Mesa, who is the number one third-crop sire in 2009 Mineshaft was himself stones better as a four-year- ($906,299, according to Bloodhorse.com), spotted the old than he had been at three, and he does keep trying other two $900,000-plus head starts in their freshman to edge his way up the ladder--he=s eighth on the third- year, 2007, when he ranked 20th on the Freshman Sire crop list so far this year, and his four-year-olds do List, with Harlan=s Holiday second (to Posse), and Proud include Grade II winners and Cool Coal Citizen third. Sky Mesa rocketed back to lead the Man. He really does deserve the rest of the year before second-crop sire list, and leads again thus far in 2009. we should be prepared to jump one way or the other, But, even in these recessionary times, $30,000 is not but it=s also fair to say the market right now rates him a a big stud fee. The market=s judgment on these horses mid-range sire, judged by his 2009 stud fee of is that, so far, they are very useful sires (September $30,000. Book 1 sires, definitely), but have not yet forced their Empire Maker is the sire from this crop who still could way into the very top tier. be a >breakthrough= top-tier sire. He sired three graded There is one sire on this list for whom 2009 will tell stakes-winning fillies in his first crop, all of whom have all: Empire Maker, sixth in cumulative earnings, but graded stakes form at four this year. His second crop second to Sky Mesa in 2009, less than $30,000 includes two Classic-aspirant colts. The first is behind. When this sire crop went to stud in 2004, its three top prospects were Empire Maker, Mineshaft, and Pioneerof the Nile, who won the GI CashCall Futurity, Vindication. Mineshaft won four Grade Is and over $2.2 the GII Robert B. Lewis S. and the GII San Felipe S. in million and was named Horse of the Year in 2003, in his last three starts, and is headed for a showdown spite of being injured and retired before the Breeders= with The Pamplemousse, by another third-crop sire, Cup. Vindication was the unbeaten champion two-year- Kafwain, in the Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby. The other old of 2002. I was touting him as a possible second is Imperial Council, a distant second to I Want Revenge string to =s enduring bow as a sire of sires, in the GIII Gotham S., but set to re-oppose in the nine- potentially his second-best sire son, after A.P. Indy. furlong GI Wood Memorial S., also on Apr. 4. One Fortunately, how quickly we forget. Though he ranks Classic placing between the two in the next 45 days or fifth among this group in lifetime progeny earnings so would make a big difference to Empire Maker=s top- ($4,565,828), Vindication has been a bitter tier aspirations. disappointment (I can say that because he=s dead), as his APEX Runner Index of 0.55 through the end of 2008 illustrates (1.00 is average, and a viable J Watch Out for “TDN Rising Stars” J commercial sire should at least be in hailing distance of Stars of tomorrow grabbing the spotlight today... the 1.50 mark). Oppenheim cont.

One thing is for certain: Empire Maker went to stud with all the credentials. Trained by Bobby Frankel for Juddmonte, he went off the 5-2 favorite for the 2003 GI Derby off a near 10-length win in the GI Florida Derby (Beyer 108), followed by a gritty win over Funny Cide in the mud in the GI Wood Memorial (Beyer 111). He couldn=t get past Funny Cide (a gelding from Distorted Humor=s first crop) in Kentucky, but came back to win the GI Belmont S. (Beyer 111-- “Predictably, as the numbers increased it became actually a very high figure for the Belmont--with Funny tougher to sell the two-year-olds at Ocala last week: Cide third). In his only subsequent start, he was upset they catalogued more and sold fewer than last year. at 3-10 by Strong Hope in the GII Jim Dandy S. But he The gross was down 38 percent, the average 33 retired with a 4-3-1 record in eight starts, never off the percent. Still, the two bits of good news were that board and an earner of nearly $2 million. By Unbridled, even the 38 percent drop is probably still he was one of four Grade I winners out of the great outperforming the general economy; and this year’s Toussaud, a Grade I winner herself by El Gran Senor average was only about 10 percent below the out of Grade II winner Image of Reality, by In Reality. 2006-2007 sale averages. catalogued One of his Grade I-winning half-brothers was Chester half as many, and sold half as many, as last year; House, who unexpectedly (and after he=d died) turned their gross was down 59 percent.” –Bill Oppenheim out to be a really good sire. The table is set, so to speak; everything is in place. Now he just needs Pioneerof the Nile to win the GI Santa Anita Derby and Imperial Council to upset I Want Revenge in the GI Wood. That would set the tongues wagging. Though this sire crop may be short on superstar sires, there are plenty who do look pretty useful. I=ve already mentioned the group=s top three by cumulative progeny earnings--Proud Citizen (1.43 APEX A Runner Index), Harlan=s Holiday (2.20), and Sky Mesa (2.01). Fourth- ranked Macho Uno (2.91) had his fourth first-crop graded stakes winner when won the GII OBS MARCH SELECT 2YO SALE New Orleans H. Vindication is fifth, Empire Maker sixth. Seventh-ranked Van Nistelrooy (1.42) surprised YEAR CAT RING SOLD % S/C GROSS AVE Coolmore as much as Chester House surprised 2009 523 358 215 41.1% $20,681,000 $96,191 Juddmonte, but he looks a very credible sire all the 2008 460 345 233 50.7% $33,380,000 $143,262 same. Posse (1.88) is down to ninth, having led the 2007 520 379 253 48.7% $26,541,000 $104,905 2007 Freshman Sire List, but I would bet on him 2006 535 394 286 53.5% $31,044,000 $108,545 making a comeback. They were very fast and precocious, and he=s sure to bounce back when the produce of better mares, starting last year, hit the racetrack. The second 10 includes Repent (2.54); Yankee Gentleman (2.23); Mineshaft (1.83); Whywhywhy (2.38); Kafwain (1.17); and mainly >regional= sires D=wildcat (3.52) and New York=s Hook and Ladder (3.18). There may or may not be a superstar among them, but there are near enough to 15 sires among this group which are siring racehorses--a virtue which may be regaining popularity now that speculation isn=t such a sure path to financial success. Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected]. Please cc TDN at [email protected]. ADENA SPRINGS 2YO SALES AT OBS YEAR CAT RING SOLD % S/C GROSS AVE TELL IT TO THE TDN... 2009 70 65 48 68.6% $2,149,000 $44,771 Want to send a “Letter to the Editor” of the 2008 136 126 97 71.3% $5,283,500 $54,469 Thoroughbred Daily News? Our address is 27 2007 141 132 90 63.8% $4,892,000 $54,356 Monmouth St., Red Bank, NJ, 07701; or send a fax 2006 114 104 65 57.0% $4,397,000 $67,646 to: (732) 747-8955; or an e-mail to: Data compiled by Brianne Stanley [email protected]. THIRD-CROP SIRES OF 2009 (1st Foals 2005) by Cumulative Progeny Earnings Rank Stallion YOB Sire Rnrs Wnrs Wins Earnings ($) SWs SH A Index Stands ‘09 Fee 1 Proud Citizen 1999 Gone West 140 75 132 5,822,548 5 16 1.43 KY 30,000 2 Harlan's Holiday 1999 Harlan 118 85 157 5,789,525 7 17 2.20 KY 30,000 3 Sky Mesa 2000 Pulpit 121 72 121 5,356,086 8 18 2.01 KY 30,000 4 Macho Uno 1998 84 52 107 4,569,559 5 10 2.91 KY 25,000 5 Vindication 2000 Seattle Slew 135 85 138 4,565,828 5 15 2.55 Dead N/A 6 Empire Maker 2000 Unbridled 109 45 74 4,493,273 8 13 2.38 KY 100,000 7 Van Nistelrooy 2000 Storm Cat 135 68 145 4,315,501 9 15 1.42 KY 15,000 8 2000 Storm Cat 175 96 186 4,163,890 4 5 0.45 FR 8,000 9 Posse 2000 Silver Deputy 103 64 131 4,028,840 7 10 1.88 KY 20,000 10 Milwaukee Brew 1997 Wild Again 111 60 124 3,832,603 6 9 1.10 FL 7,500 11 Repent 1999 Louis Quatorze 110 59 128 3,608,438 6 13 2.54 KY 7,500 12 Yankee Gentleman 1999 Storm Cat 82 52 108 3,449,618 5 13 2.23 KY 6,500 13 Mineshaft 1999 A.P. Indy 89 43 73 3,274,044 6 12 1.83 KY 30,000 14 Whywhywhy 2000 Mr. Greeley 77 50 106 3,234,035 4 8 2.38 KY 7,500 15 Kafwain 2000 Cherokee Run 108 65 119 3,104,588 7 11 1.17 KY 6,500 16 D'wildcat 1998 Forest Wildcat 50 33 55 2,739,615 3 9 3,52 FL 6,500 17 Hook and Ladder 1997 Dixieland Band 75 43 67 2,712,610 6 8 3.18 NY 7,500 18 Flatter 1999 A.P. Indy 102 67 121 2,647,040 4 12 0.38 KY 5,000 19 Cactus Ridge 2001 Hennessy 107 67 121 2,511,874 2 10 0.00 KY 8,000 20 Full Mandate 1999 A.P. Indy 131 75 150 2,492,988 1 6 0.00 FL 5,000 21 Sunday Break (Jpn) 1999 Forty Niner 108 63 111 2,419,533 2 6 0.35 FR 4,500 22 Aldebaran 1998 Mr. Prospector 89 47 85 2,178,955 2 5 1.01 JPN N/A 23 Sligo Bay (Ire) 1998 Sadler's Wells 80 45 82 2,165,203 2 7 1.05 ON 5,000 24 1998 Cryptoclearance 58 34 88 1,976,734 3 4 2.00 Korea N/A 25 Najran 1999 Runaway Groom 84 46 99 1,963,797 3 5 0.98 KY 7,500 26 Wiseman's Ferry 1999 Hennessy 78 47 82 1,957,988 2 5 0.52 PA 3,000 *Cumulative lifetime statistics for sires supplied by The Jockey Club Information Systems; earnings are from the Northern Hemisphere and do not include Japan.