eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Olivia Information from NHC Advisory 39A, 2:00 AM HST Mon Sep 10, 2018 On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions are possible over some parts of starting Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening possible starting some time on Tuesday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 85 mph Position Relative to 500 miles ENE of Hilo late Tue or early Wed Speed: (category 1) Land: 655 miles E of Est. Time & Region: between and the Min Central Pressure: 980 mb Coordinates: 21.7 N, 147.6 W Big Island

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained less than 74 mph 120 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 270 degrees at 10 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (tropical storm)

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Olivia moving through the Hawaiian Islands late Tuesday into early Wednesday at tropical storm strength (winds below 74 mph). To illustrate the uncertainty in Olivia’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Tuesday. ■ Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible, especially over windward sides of Maui and the Big Island. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. ■ Large swells generated by Olivia will spread from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands early this week. This will cause surf to build along exposed east facing shorelines as Olivia approaches. This surf may become damaging across parts of the state.

Forecast Track for Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Olivia

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours - is in effect for , Hawaii County, and Maui County including the islands of Maui, , , and . Interests on and should closely monitor the progress of Olivia.

Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities for the Next Five Days The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands' chances of seeing tropical storm force wind speeds (39-73 mph) in the next five days ranging from 10% to 70%. The map at lower right shows chances of seeing hurricane force wind speeds (74+ mph) in the next five days ranging from 0% to 10%.

Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds and New Potential Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook for the North Central Pacific The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days. winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

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