WEATHER .GOV /LOUISVILLE NATIONAL SERVICE WEATHER .GOV /LEXINGTON Louisville, Kentucky WEATHER .GOV /BOWLINGGREEN

NationalNational WeatherWeather ServiceService Trimble County, June 3, 2008 20082008 Shareholders’Shareholders’ ReportReport

INSIDE THIS ISSUE National Weather Service WELCOME Frankfort Weather Radio ...... 2 6201 Theiler Lane Local Forecast Model...... 3 Welcome to the third edition of the Ensemble Forecasting ...... 3 Louisville, Kentucky 40229 Louisville National Weather Service Winter Weather ...... 4 Phone 502.969.8842 (NWS) office’s Shareholders’ Report. As a taxpaying citizen, you have in- Flash Flooding ...... 4 Fax 502.698.5663 vested in the Federal government, of StormReady ...... 5 E-mail [email protected] which the NWS is a part. The NWS, HAZMAT ...... 5 as a whole, was appropriated $927 Climate…………...………………… 6 million for Fiscal Year 2008. That CoCoRaHS...... 6 equates to an investment of $3.03 for every person in the United States. As the Kentucky ...... 7 Meteorologist-in-Charge of your investment, I feel it is my duty to report to you University Partnership...... 8 how your holdings have fared. Co-Op Observer Program...... 8 Students at NWS...... 9 This document details the many activities of your Louisville NWS office, serving NWS Public Speaking...... 9 southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Since you are both a shareholder and a Mapping the Weather...... 10 customer, I hope you find our activities have demonstrated the sort of steward- ship you expect from your public servants. I welcome your comments and sug- Flood and Drought...... 11 gestions as to how the NWS can be an even better investment for you. Radar Improvement...... 12 Forecasting Improvement...... 12 — John D. Gordon, Meteorologist-in-Charge Leadership...... 14 Forecast Practice...... 14 Our Management Team Research...... 14 John Gordon, Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC) Conferences...... 15 Joe Sullivan, Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) The Weather Channel...... 16 Personnel Changes...... 16 Ted Funk, Science and Operations Officer (SOO) Office Beautification...... 16 Bill Whitlock, Electronic Systems Analyst (ESA) Top Events of 2008...... 17 2009 Goals...... Back Page NEW NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER GOES ON THE AIR IN FRANKFORT

The city of Frankfort, in conjunc- after the installation and the cov- tion with the Franklin County erage improved dramatically. Office of Emergency Management Over 90% of the residences and and the Kentucky Office of Home- businesses in and around Frank- land Security installed a new fort as well as much of Anderson NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) County now have excellent NWR transmitter in Frankfort in late coverage. 2008. Previously, the weather NWR broadcasts weather infor- radio coverage in and around the mation 24 hours a day directly Frankfort area had been less than from the NWS. All warnings, adequate. The hilly terrain and forecasts, and major public safety lack of a suitable transmitter events such as hazardous material nearby were the main contribut- spill announcements and Amber ing factors to the lack of coverage. Alerts are disseminated over Shortly after the transmitter was NWR. Many NWR models can be installed, the city of Frankfort programmed to sound an alarm donated the transmitter to the when the NWS issues a warning. NWS. After we began providing NWR can be purchased through the audio, the transmitter became any electronics outlet and most operational. Signal strength models sell for less than $100. readings were taken before and

NOAA Weather Radio belongs in every home, business, and public gathering place. They should be as common as smoke detectors.

"As someone who listened to your alerts on the NOAA weather radio band throughout that terrible night, I feel that the NWS did a heroic job of staying on top of the developments the storms wrought and of keeping warnings fresh, updated, and timely. I have spoken with sev- eral people whose relatives, because of NWS warnings, left their homes that were in the storms’ path. Those very homes were pulverized. The people are alive, in no small part, because of your warnings."

----- Matt P., NWR listener, after the tornadoes of February 5 and 6, 2008 John Gordon addresses dignitaries in Frankfort as Lexington's WTVQ Channel 36 films. L to R: John Gordon, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo, Frankfort City Commissioner Kathy Carter, and Frankfort Mayor William May, Jr. 2 FORECASTING WITH ENSEMBLES

During the summer, forecaster Mark Jarvis worked with Sci- ence and Operations Officer Rich Grumm of the NWS office in State College, PA on ensem- ble forecasting research. Mark and Rich looked at pairing en- semble forecasts with climatol- ogy for the March 2008 Ohio Valley snowstorm.

Ensemble forecasting is a process in which a numerical model is run many times utiliz- ing different initial conditions with each run, giving the fore- caster a range of possible solu- tions. Since there can be many runs, forecasters typically use It takes a lot of computing power to run a weather forecast model! the ensemble average for the basis of the forecast . OUR OWN WEATHER FORECASTING COM- In the research, the output of two model ensembles was PUTER MODEL, RIGHT HERE IN LOUISVILLE paired with climatological data. In an effort to give the best forecasts possible to the residents of south- Forecast maps were generated ern Indiana and central Kentucky, NWS Louisville has been running a that showed where the ensem- Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model locally for the last bles were predicting highly un- year. The model runs at very high resolution and is available to fore- usual weather. Having strong casters four times a day. The high resolution allows forecasters to see agreement within the ensembles how the complex terrain of the Ohio Valley plays a factor in our resulted in increased forecast weather. confidence since the model members were forecasting Numerical weather forecast models are complicated computer pro- nearly the same thing. In the grams that simulate the atmosphere over a given time range. Numeric past, significant anomalies in modeling requires extensive computing power. In the past, numerical the forecast data preceded sig- models had only been run on supercomputers at large national comput- nificant weather events. ing facilities. However, with the arrival of the Linux operating system and a decline in computer hardware prices, numerical models can now To illustrate their research, be run on a series of connected desktop computers called “clusters.” Mark and Rich used the Ohio Currently, the Louisville WRF model runs on four Linux workstations Valley snowstorm of March 7-8, that have a total of eight processors and 8 GB of system memory. In 2008. A swath of heavy snow general, it would take nearly six hours to run a 24 hour forecast simula- occurred from near Paducah tion on a single workstation. By hooking up the four workstations to- through Louisville to Columbus gether and distributing the load, a 24 hour forecast only takes 90 min- and Cleveland. The ensembles utes. The forecasts from the local WRF model are then sent to NWS showed significant anomalies in forecaster workstations where they are integrated into our daily temperature, precipitation, and forecasts. winds that were conducive for a winter storm. The anomalies The efforts of local modeling have proven very successful. In the last were forecast 60 hours in ad- year, the model has undergone significant adjustments to improve its vance of the storm. The data performance. The model can be more accurate with temperature and suggested that 10 inches of snow precipitation than the larger scale models that are provided by the Na- could fall in Louisville, which tional Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). indeed is what took place. 3 MAKING LIFE SIMPLER IN THE WINTERTIME

In recent years, winter storms tively, even when we expect only with mixed wintry precipitation snow to fall. In this way, we hope presented unique challenges to to present a clearer product to the local forecast offices. Kentucky media and a more unified presen- and southern Indiana are noted tation to the public on the for winter storms that bring a mix Internet. of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The coordination of headlines Our precipitation type and between Louisville and the amount forecast will still be found surrounding NWS offices was within the text of our products. difficult. In the past, this coordi- For example, if we expect 2 to 4 nation issue was especially tricky inches of snow, our product will with the forecast offices in state, “ A winter weather advi- Nashville and Jackson due to sory for snow. ” If we expect 6 differing criteria for snow adviso- inches of snow, our product will ries and heavy snow warnings. read, “ A winter storm warn- ing for heavy snow.” This year, all of the local offices have streamlined many of our Because freezing rain presents winter weather products into such unique challenges to travel, just two: winter storm warnings we will continue to issue freezing and winter weather advisories . rain advisories and ice storm For example, snow advisories and warnings when we expect precipi- heavy snow warnings will become tation to be predominately freez- winter weather advisories and ing rain . Louisville, February 22, 2008 winter storm warnings, respec-

FLASH FLOOD AWARENESS Flash flooding is one of the most dangerous weather phenomena we face. Docile streams can become raging torrents amazingly quickly when move slowly over the same spot, or when heavy rain falls on melting snow cover. Therefore, it is imperative that the NWS be able to issue accurate Flash Flood Warnings. Toward that end, Lead Forecaster Don Kirkpatrick at NWS Louisville has spent several years conducting an exhaustive search to locate all of the spots in southern Indiana and central Kentucky that are prone to flash flooding. With this knowledge we can warn people to stay away from these specific locations in our warnings and statements.

Above is an example of a map showing all In each of the counties for which we are responsible, local emergency the spots in a county that are prone to management teams coordinated with the NWS to identify the locations flash flooding. The flash flood “hotspots” of low water crossings and streams that easily leave their banks. Maps are color coded according to how easily they flood. Also, by clicking on the map were constructed and are available for the warning forecaster. We can NWS meteorologists can get more overlay radar information onto the maps and know exactly which detailed information about each hotspot. communities are in the most danger from powerful and deadly flash This allows us to make our warnings floods. more specific and useful.

4 HAZMAT

STORMREADY CONTINUES TO GROW Hazardous material incidents can take place at any time. A NWS Louisville is a strong supporter of well-known recent example was the StormReady program the derailment of a CSX train (www.stormready.noaa.gov), and was near Brooks, KY on January 16, very pleased to welcome two new mem- 2007. In that accident, flam- bers into the Stormready family in 2008. mable materials in the boxcars exploded into flames and smoke In a typical year, nine out of every ten billowing five hundred feet into presidentially-declared disasters are the air. Nearby schools and weather related, leading to around 500 homes were evacuated and the train continued to burn for a deaths per year and nearly $14 billion in day and a half. damage. StormReady started in 1999 and helps arm America with the com- When such events occur, munication and safety skills needed to weather data are of utmost im- portance. Emergency respond- save lives and property–before and dur- ers need to be thoroughly ing the event. StormReady helps com- knowledgeable of weather fac- munity leaders and emergency managers tors such as: strengthen local safety programs. • and speed StormReady communities are better pre- Joe Sullivan (left) joins Wood- • incoming cold fronts or other pared to save lives from the onslaught of ford County Judge Executive John Coyle and the Director wind shifts hazardous weather through better plan- of Woodford County Emer- • precipitation ning, education, and awareness. gency Management Keith Slugantz in announcing the • how high smoke might rise In 2008, Woodford County joined the county’s entrance into the ranks of StormReady, as did Six Flags StormReady program. • what clouds are present Kentucky Kingdom in Louisville. Wood- • chances ford County and Six Flags were able to demonstrate that they are suffi- ciently prepared to provide protection to the public against the dangers In addition to current condi- tions, officials often need a fore- of severe weather. cast of what changes in the Also, NWS Louisville StormReady Program Leader Jim Maczko worked weather are on the way over a with the Kentucky State Parks System and the Kentucky Division of period of hours to sometimes Emergency Management. Jim helped Dale Hollow Lake and Lake days. Cumberland State Resort Parks begin the process of developing park- The NWS fulfills its mission of specific severe weather emergency ac- protecting life and property by tion plans, designation of severe working hand-in-hand with public safety officials to mini- weather shelters, and training of park mize any harm that might come management staff in weather safety from hazardous material acci- and emergency response. Further dents. work with additional state parks is Also, we broadcast the latest likely in the coming months and years. information on NWR, providing In southern Indiana and central Ken- details on what has happened tucky there are now 18 StormReady and what actions emergency officials have instructed people communities. In 2009, Slugger Field in the affected area to take. Patrons of Six Flags will in Louisville is expected to join the now see these signs posted at program. the park. 5 WEATHER RECORDS IMPROVING OUR CLIMATE SERVICES

LOUISVILLE

All-time high temperature: Due to customer feedback, in 2008 we orches- 107° July 24, 1901, July 28, trated the introduction of four new climate 1930, and July 14, 1936 products: daily and monthly climate reports

All-time low temperature: for Bowman Field in Louisville and Capital -22° January 19, 1994 City Airport in Frankfort. Bowman Field and Frankfort join Louisville International Air- Wettest Day: port, Blue Grass Airport, and Bowling Green/ 10.48” March 1, 1997 Warren County Regional Airport in the twice- Snowiest Day: daily reports that detail each day’s and 15.5” January 17, 1994 month’s temperatures and precipitation.

LEXINGTON

All-time high temperature: 108° July 10, 1936 Most people like lists, so we developed several All-time low temperature: “top ten” lists of the most significant weather -21° January 24, 1963 events to have struck southern Indiana and Wettest Day: central Kentucky. After compiling the top ten 8.04” August 2, 1932 lists, we formed a master list of the top 25 all- time biggest weather stories in our region’s Snowiest Day: 13.4” January 26, 1943 history. All of the lists are available on our website (weather.gov/louisville).

BOWLING GREEN

All-time high temperature: Also in 2008 our website’s climate web pages 113° July 28, 1930 for Louisville and Lexington were dramatically All-time low temperature: expanded, offering a great amount of new in- -26° January 12, 1886 formation. In addition, the historical data pre- Wettest Day: sented on these pages were painstakingly 6.15” December 7, 1924 checked and verified, ensuring that only the Snowiest Day: most accurate information is provided. 18.0” March 9, 1960

TELL US HOW MUCH RAIN YOU GOT! George Carlin once observed, “Nobody lives at the airport!” Mr. Carlin was absolutely right, and that’s why the CoCoRaHS program is so necessary. Through this program you can tell us at the NWS exactly how much rain or snow you received. It’s quick and easy, and takes very little time or equip- ment. Your reports are used by the NWS and weather sensitive businesses and organizations on a daily basis. Go to www.cocorahs.org or contact us here at the weather office for more information. The more observers we have, the better our service to the public!

6 NWS LOUISVILLE INVOLVEMENT IN THE KENTUCKY MESONET

The 20 Kentucky Mesonet sites across the Commonwealth con- tinuously record temperature, dew point, relative , wind, wind chill, heat index, solar radiation, and precipita- tion at five-minute intervals. Some sites also have additional sensors to measure soil tem- perature and soil moisture. These data are available in real- time and are also archived.

It is hoped that eventually enough funding can be secured to install and maintain around 100 Mesonet sites across Ken- tucky’s 120 counties, providing The Kentucky Mesonet provides a plethora of free on-line weather information. automated weather observa- tions for the entire state on a 20 square mile grid. KENTUCKY MESONET A conference was held in Bowl- ing Green in October, hosted by The Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org) is a network of auto- Kentucky’s State Climatologist, mated weather monitoring stations being developed by the Kentucky Dr. Stuart Foster. NWS Louis- ville participated in this confer- Climate Center (KCC) at Western Kentucky University . ence to discuss the future of the As a member of the National Climate Services Partnership, the KCC is a Mesonet system, and to ascer- partner with the National Climatic Data Center, the Midwestern tain who the main users of the data are. Funding was also of Regional Climate Center, and the NWS. great importance. The highly The KCC works with local officials and stakeholders to identify sites successful Oklahoma Mesonet that meet scientific criteria and provide added community benefits. was used as a model for partner- Mesonet data are easily accessible and can be used to improve local ship between data providers and data users, as well as for practi- forecasts and hazardous weather warnings, aid emergency response cal applications of Mesonet efforts, enhance agricultural productivity, assist local utility providers, data. and support business and industry. Also in October, NWS Louisville Data from the Kentucky Mesonet will be available in every K-12 class- Observations Program Leader room throughout the Commonwealth to support science and math (OPL), Mike Crow accompanied education. Faculty and students in Kentucky's eight public universities Dr. Foster on a prospective site are charter members of the Kentucky Mesonet Consortium. survey near Georgetown. Mr. Crow was impressed with the The Kentucky Mesonet is part of a larger effort at Western Kentucky significant difficulties in select- University to build a cyberinfrastructure for environmental monitoring ing a site appropriate for these and decision support, thereby strengthening Kentucky's economic com- important weather stations, since they need to be placed petitiveness through advanced science and technology. where they remain undisturbed The Mesonet swelled to 20 sites across Kentucky in 2008. The next site for many years. scheduled to be brought on-line is located in Barren County. 7 NWS LOUISVILLE HELPS LOCAL UNIVERSITIES WITH CURRICULA

NWS Louisville, along with the We also have forged strong rela- meteorology department at UPS, tionships with Dr. Stuart Foster has worked closely with the Uni- and Dr. Greg Goodrich at West- versity of Louisville to help set up ern Kentucky University. A full a new meteorology undergradu- meteorology program exists at ate program, which will com- Western and students there serve mence with the 2009-2010 school as the official snowfall observers year. for Bowling Green.

“Students (who) major in meteorology will learn the key concepts and skills necessary to qualify as a meteorologist for the National Weather Service.” —WKU website

WHAT IS THE CO-OP COOPERATIVE OBSERVER PROGRAM NEWS PROGRAM? Though CoCoRaHS (page 6) and the Kentucky Mesonet (page 7) are Even with all of the state-of-the- valuable additions to our platform of weather data, the Cooperative Ob- art technology associated with server Network remains a vital part of the nation’s weather and climate the modernization of the NWS, there remains a program information system. NWS Louisville continues to fully support the administered by the weather observer network throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. service that has stayed virtually CO-OP OBSERVER MILESTONES AND AWARDS IN 2008 unchanged since its inception over a hundred years ago. This Twenty-year service awards were presented to our observers in Bards- is the Cooperative Weather town and Danville. Observer Program where over 11,000 volunteer weather Fifteen-year service awards were given to our weather watchers in observers across the country Crestwood and Glasgow. record daily temperature and precipitation data. Some also A new co-op observer station was opened in July at Corners, located in record or report additional eastern Breckinridge County. information such as soil temperature, evaporation, wind movement, agricultural data, water equivalent of snow on the ground, river stages, lake levels, atmospheric phenomena, and road hazards.

Many Cooperative Stations in the United States have been collecting weather data from the same location for over a century!

8 BOOK THE NWS!

STUDENTS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE The National Weather Service participates in many public In 2008, the NWS offices in Louisville, Indianapolis, Chicago, and speaking events every year. We northern Indiana participated in the Fourth Annual College Road commonly are invited to talk to Show. Representatives from the NWS offices traveled to various a variety of groups, including universities in the region to present to students a mixture of scientific Rotary Clubs, Lions Clubs, Opti- meteorology, information on NWS operations, and career guidance. mist Clubs, Chambers of Com- These shows are designed to assist students in deciding if they would merce, the Red Cross, schools, and Boy and Girl Scouts for like to work for the NWS after graduation, and what the best strategy is their weather merit badges. for attaining employment in the field of meteorology. The talks we give vary according One of the most to our audience. We usually hit advantageous things a on topics such as weather safety, student can do is to kinds of severe weather, our spend a summer duties as meteorologists, basic working at an NWS meteorology, major historical weather events, and detailing office. In 2008, services provided by the NWS. Stephanie Dunten and Andy Boxell, both from We also attend events such as area science fairs, the Kentucky Stephanie Dunten of Valparaiso Univer- Andy Boxell State Fair, and ColorFest at sity, worked full time Bernheim Forest. For the past at the Louisville office. They worked on a variety of projects and few years we participated in shadowed forecasters on the forecast desks. They organized the NWS Kentucky Tonight on KET, join- booth at the Kentucky State Fair, assisted in planning the National ing host Bill Goodman, and also Weather Association’s (NWA) national conference held in Louisville in helped take calls from the public October, took field trips to the Doppler radar tower and various river and answer their meteorologi- gauge sites, and much more. cal questions. In 2008, we visited all televi- NWS Louisville was also host to five student volunteers in 2008, each sion stations in Lexington and of whom performed an impressive amount of work. Some of the Louisville, and held a spring projects they completed included work on Geographic Information weather seminar for media out- Systems (GIS) projects, preparation of the NWA conference, lists of the lets in Bowling Green. The TV most important weather events in this region’s weather men and women bene- history, a poster about the February 5-6, 2008 fit from new science and tech- outbreak, calling all schools in nologies developed by the NWS, and we use the opportunity to southern Indiana and central Kentucky learn what services our media to make sure their NOAA Weather partners need from us. Radios were working correctly, and If you’re looking for a speaker calculating historical severe weather for your next event, consider statistics for every county in the area. the NWS. We have meteorolo- If you know of a student who is gists, hydrologists, and informa- studying meteorology in college and tion technology and electronics specialists who will be happy to would like to apply for a summer speak on the weather and what position with the NWS, simply we do. Simply contact the of- contact our office. Space is limited, fice and we’ll schedule the talk. but we will accommodate as many Top to bottom: Jane Marie Wix, Jake Stengel, Michael Mathews, students as possible. Evan Webb, and Eric Russell 9 MAPPING THE WEATHER

GIS, or Geographic Information accurately track tornado damage Systems, is a rapidly expanding paths and quickly provide the technology that creates, stores, public with a visual representa- and analyzes spatial data and tion on a map that is easy to associated attribute data. For understand. example, locations that report Our project to learn all the points daily weather information to the in our area of responsibility that NWS are plotted via latitude/ are prone to flash flooding (see longitude pairs. Each location image upper left, and article on will have data associated with it page 4) has been greatly such as rainfall, snowfall, enhanced by GIS. Emergency temperatures, etc. Given enough managers from every county were locations, we can then use GIS to asked to list their most notorious run a statistical calculation to flash flood hotspots. Previously, NWS BEGINS USE OF interpolate between the data the locations were GOOGLE EARTH MAPS compiled only onto paper We have begun plotting daily maps, but now are rain, snow, and temperature digitized using GIS to data in .kml format for custom- make much better use of ers who have access to Google the information. Now Earth. We plot data from co-op observers (page 8), airports, forecasters can quickly CoCoRaHS observers (page 6), access the data on their and automated gauges. The computers to find out plots are generated around which spots flood easily, 10:00am EST each day, and are roads that are impacted, available via the “Rivers and stream names, and how Lakes” page on our website. the floodwaters typically Like all Google Earth maps, behave at those locations. more information will appear as points and provide an estimation the user zooms in, and map of how much rain fell across an (continued in the sidebar on page 16) layers can be toggled on and off. area, or what the high tempera- If you look at one of the maps, tures were on a note that there are “holes” in the given day. A data. If you live in one of these major utility of data-sparse regions, consider this tool is to joining CoCoRaHS to help fill create more useful the void! and legible maps on our website. When we combine GIS with Global Positioning System (GPS) information, we can more

10 NWS PLAYS AN ACTIVE FROM FLOOD TO DROUGHT ROLE IN WATER CON- CERNS The year began with Along with several other state quite a bit of flooding and Federal organizations, NWS from January through Louisville attended the April, though most of it Kentucky Drought Meeting on was minor. By the end August 19. Our main purpose of June, NWS Louis- was to provide both short and ville had issued 48 long term forecasts for rainfall and river levels. The goal was to Flood Advisories, 205 begin formulating a statewide Flood Statements, and drought response plan. 45 Flood Warnings. Almost every local river On September 10 we partici- pated in the Ohio River Naviga- Caught in floodwaters near Sadieville, Kentucky basin experienced some on March 4. tion Meeting, during which we degree of flooding, provided forecasts to the Coast including the Ohio Guard, U.S. Army Corps of River. The Blue River at White Cloud, Indiana attained its highest crest Engineers, and private firms. on record (24.2 feet) on March 20. By the end of the wet season, pre- NWS Louisville also joined in cipitation totals were as much as 9 inches above normal in northern dam break exercises at Rough Kentucky and southern Indiana. Departures were less in southern Ken- River Lake and Green River tucky, but were still on the order of 2 to 3 inches wetter than normal. Lake, since the NWS is the primary warning broadcaster The weather turned dry during the summer and fall. Much of Kentucky should a dam fail. We have descended into severe drought in late September, with extreme drought pre-written statements stored in in southeastern sections of the state in October and November. Pre- our computer system that only cipitation ran 7 to 9 inches below normal for the June through No- need to have a few blanks filled vember time period. Insult was added to injury when the remains of in, so that we can get Flash Hurricane Ike blew through much of the region, causing the U.S. Flood Warnings to the public at a moment’s notice in the case of Department of Agriculture to declare the entire Commonwealth a a dam break. Those warnings disaster area by the end of October due to the combined effects of wind go directly to NWR and our and drought. website, along with local media. Fortunately the 2008 drought was not as devastating as the dry weather in 2007, which set in earlier in the year, was more severe, and was exacerbated by a killing freeze in April. In 2008, streamflows were low in the smaller streams but the larger rivers continued to flow due to the release of water from reservoirs. Increased rains in December alleviated the drought and brought soil moisture levels back to near normal. Severe drought (orange) and extreme drought (red) in Kentucky in November.

11 RADAR IMPROVEMENT

Over the summer the resolution IMPROVING OUR FORECASTING SKILL of the NWS Doppler Radar was Meteorologists care deeply about understand biases, and enhance significantly increased. The their forecasts. For most of us, our forecasting skills. upgrade provides finer detail at the forecast process doesn’t stop greater distances from the Beginning in 2008, Forecaster Liz at the end of our shift. After we radar, enabling warning meteor- Stoppkotte introduced NWS Lou- ologists to more easily detect send our forecast out to the isville to a tool called “BOIVerify,” radar signatures associated with world, we watch the weather to which was developed at the NWS severe storms and tornadoes. see if our forecast is correct or office in Boise, Idaho. This tool The increased resolution will be not. In general, meteorologists especially useful for small provides instant feedback on fore- are a very conscientious bunch tornadoes and storms far from cast accuracy. Currently the tool when it comes to their job. the radar site. is being applied to high and low Toward that end, we need to pay temperature forecasts, though its close attention to our perform- uses will be expanded in the ance. By studying how well or future.

poorly our forecasts verify with (continued on page 13) what actually happened, we can learn from our mistakes,

Above is an example of the for- mer resolution of the NWS Dop- pler Radar, showing a poten- tially tornadic storm. Below is the same storm shown with the new resolution. The hook echo is much easier to recognize.

Above is the official NWS high temperature forecast for a given day. We forecasted tem- peratures ranging from the upper 40s in the north to the middle 50s in the south. On the left below, BOIVerify shows the errors committed by a computer model for this day’s highs. The blue colors show that the computer model’s predicted temperatures were much too cold. On the right is the NWS forecast error, which also shows a cool bias but of much less magni- tude. So, this tells us that the NWS forecaster was able to improve upon the computer model output and issue a better forecast for the public in this instance.

We can also better detect strong winds, rotation, and the poten- tial for hail in severe thunder- storms with this new technol- ogy, which allows us to make even better warning decisions.

12

IMPROVING OUR FORECASTING SKILL OFFICE BEAUTIFICATION

(continued from page 12) errors. Also, as seen at the Our Fourth Annual Beautifica- tion Day was held in July. bottom of the page, graphs can BOIVerify collects temperatures Employees and students pitched recorded by area weather be generated to show trends in to clean out our storeroom, stations and co-op observers over a period of time at a shine the break room, and (page 8), and compares them to chosen location in our forecast organize the library. Some our NWS forecast and to area. worked outside, sprucing up the landscaping around the office. forecasts generated by our Though forecasts will never be We also enjoyed a cookout and computer models. perfect in our lifetime, everybody brought a dish to BOIVerify is a powerful tool BOIVerify allows meteorolo- pass at the luncheon. which can generate many charts gists the opportunity to It’s very important to work in and graphs for dissection of the enhance their talents and to pleasant surroundings, and forecast. For example, improve their skill in compos- NWS Louisville employees are histograms, as shown below, ing your daily weather willing to roll up their sleeves and make sure the office are used to quantify forecast predictions. remains attractive both to us and to our guests.

-2° -4°

Student Jane Marie Wix and MIC The histogram shown above quantifies the amount that our high temperature forecast was in error across our entire area of responsibility. In this particular example, our forecast averaged about two and a half degrees too cold.

In the graph below, the forecast hour is shown along the top and bottom of the chart, and the amount of error along either side. The dark blue line in the middle is the NWS forecast, and the other lines are computer model forecasts. The closer the line is to zero, the better the fore- cast. In this example, the NWS forecast outperformed the models, and most forecasts had an increasingly cool bias as the forecast went out farther in time.

The entrance to our building on Theiler Lane in Louisville.

13 THE WEATHER CHANNEL VISITS LOUISVILLE PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE

In August, reporters from a produc- NWS Louisville forecasters un- Forecasters work individually tion company based in Chicago visited dergo periodic training to keep up with facilitators, and the one-on- NWS Louisville to get our perspective with the latest technological one training is used to review and on the Super Outbreak of tornadoes changes and scientific challenges understand important forecast that took place on April 3-4, 1974. The in issuing forecasts and warnings. and warning concepts, learn what material they gathered will be aired One particularly useful way we we did well in a particular case, February 24-26, 2009, as part of “When Weather Changed History — train is by using the Weather and how we can do better in fu- Super Outbreak” on The Weather Event Simulator (WES). Similar ture similar events. For example, Channel. Louisville was virtually at the to pilots who for severe weather epicenter of the outbreak, and suffered train in simula- simulations, fore- a visit from a tornado that reached F4 tors to enhance casters assess radar strength on the Fujita Scale. their flying and signatures and the Ted Funk and Joe Sullivan were inter- emergency re- near-storm envi- viewed. Ted talked about how today’s sponse skills, ronment, then issue radar and forecasting technologies are our meteorolo- severe thunder- vastly different than those of 35 years gists are re- storm and/or tor- ago. The “Super Tuesday” tornado quired to go nado warnings as if outbreak of February 5-6, 2008 was Meteorologists replay big weather through several events and issue warnings and the event was occur- used for comparison to the 1974 event. forecasts in real time on the WES. Joe discussed how our severe weather simulations per ring in real time. spotter and outreach programs have year on selected high impact Flash flood-related training is increased public understanding and weather events from the past. usually integrated into the severe awareness of severe weather. weather cases as well. Past weather cases are re-played Also interviewed was Dave Reeves, in real-time format on the WES. (continued in the sidebar on page 16 ) who was a forecaster at NWS Louisville at the time of the 1974 outbreak and still resides in Louisville. NWS CONDUCTS IMPORTANT RESEARCH Forecasting is just one part of our jobs here at the NWS. Another impor- tant facet of our work is conducting meteorological research. In 2008, several projects were undertaken, including:

• Studying historical tornado events to determine patterns in tornado occurrence in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

A tornado west of Richmond, • Examining the 5-6 February squall line that spawned numerous Kentucky on April 3, 1974 tornadoes in central Kentucky

• We teamed up with NWS offices in St. Louis and Chicago to investigate Tornado damage in Northfield, a line of severe storms that brought powerful winds to Chicago in Au- Kentucky on April 3, 1974 gust, resulting in intense lightning and winds at Wrigley Field when 40,000 fans were present for a game

• Working with meteorologists at NWS Indianapolis and UPS in Louis- ville dissecting the September wind storm

• Using verification statistics to examine how consistent our forecasts are from one day to the next

• The flash flood hot spot project (page 4) neared completion 14 NEW ARRIVALS AND PROMOTIONS

• Jackie Brown arrived as our new Administrative Assistant in February

• Angie Lese was promoted to Lead Forecaster in April

• Students Stephanie Dunten and Andy Boxell joined the Student Career Employment Program in May

• Liz Stoppkotte was promoted from Meteoro- logical Intern to Fore- caster, and transferred here from Billings, MT in The National Weather Association hosted its annual conference in Louisville. June NWS LOUSVILLE ACTIVELY PARTICIPATES IN METEOROLOGICAL CONFERENCES RETIREMENTS AND DEPARTURES

Conferences are excellent opportunities to learn about new meteoro- • Administrative Assistant logical discoveries and developments, and also form bonds between Pam Lozier accepted a NWS employees from vastly different parts of the country. position with the Federal In October, NWS Louisville was honored to help organize the Aviation Administration in National Weather Association’s 33rd Annual Conference, and to host January it at the Galt House in Louisville. To the best of our knowledge it was • Lead Forecaster Alex the first major weather conference ever to be held in Louisville. Beauvois retired in Thanks in part to the city’s excellent location, amenities, and trans- February after 38 years of portation options, conference attendees were able to come from as far federal service away as Alaska, Canada, and the Florida Keys. As a matter of fact, more people attended the meeting than ever before in its history. The • Forecaster Marilyn Scholz theme of the conference was “Utilizing Our Past to Improve Our (below) retired in January Future,” and several people from NWS Louisville presented papers. 2009 after 36 years of fed- eral service, including In January, John Gordon and Angie Lese spoke in New Orleans at the more than 34 years at annual conference of the prestigious American Meteorological NWS Louisville Society. John Gordon traveled to Alabama and Colorado during the spring to connect with meteorology students and faculty at local colleges. Several people at NWS Louisville are currently authoring important research projects that will be presented at future conventions.

15 MAPPING THE LEADERSHIP AT NWS LOUISVILLE WEATHER In June, Louisville was the host learned in the workshop to my (continued from page 10) city for the first Leadership working relationships with every- Such information will lead to Excellence And Development one in the office.” greater specificity in NWS Flash (LEAD) workshop, which was The NWS is increasingly placing a Flood Warnings, so that only the attended by NWS employees from priority on employee develop- locations that are truly in danger across the central part of the are warned. ment and LEAD is one important nation (the NWS’s “Central tool used in reaching this goal. The number of GIS applications Region”). Louisville will again at the NWS will continue to ex- host the workshop in June 2009. NWS Louisville continues to pand. We also are developing enrich leadership principles both very detailed maps of NWR re- In order for the NWS to remain within the weather office and in ception to help pinpoint areas relevant, we must be able to adapt the community as well. As part of that need better coverage (see and change with the times. The the article on the new Frankfort LEAD, Science and Operations LEAD program allows everyone NWR on page 2). We are devel- Officer Ted Funk conducted a in the NWS an opportunity to oping automated procedures to full-day interactive introductory create GIS interpolation maps of improve themselves and to make leadership workshop that rainfall, snowfall, and tempera- a positive difference in their explored leadership characteris- tures on our website for quick personal and professional lives. visualization of weather events tics, service to others, relation- by the public. Discussion topics include: ships, communication skills, teamwork, mentorship, and We will use GIS to add and re- • Communication move places in our database to empowerment. make our Tornado Warnings and • Relationships After the initial workshop, activi- Severe Thunderstorm Warnings • easier to understand. We also Mentorship ties were held for the staff so that hope to make many of our GIS we could practice and enrich our • Conflict Resolution maps and raw data available to leadership skills. These princi- the public and educational and • Empowerment ples are now put into practice governmental institutions for every day and enhance our service their use. • Servant Leadership to the public by enabling us to be • Vision a diverse, synergistic team dedicated to serving the meteoro- • Diversity PRACTICE logical and hydrological needs of • (continued from page 14) Creative Solutions the citizens of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. In the fall, we perform winter NWS Louisville forecasters Angie weather scenarios to prepare for Lese and Jim Maczko participated Ted’s leadership workshop was so the winter season, whereby fore- in the workshop. Angie com- successful in Louisville, that he casters assess various atmos- has been invited to present it to pheric processes that are very mented, “It was an intensive but important in determining precipi- very gratifying experience that other NWS offices as well. In tation type, intensity, and . focused on learning what leader- 2008 he traveled to Buffalo, NY and Wilming- Continuing education is an ongo- ship truly ton, OH to share ing activity at NWS Louisville, means and how and performing weather simula- we can all be his expertise tions and reviews is an integral great leaders. I with those part of this effort. will be able to offices. apply what I 16 TOP WEATHER EVENTS OF 2008 WINDSTORM SEPTEMBER 14

The remnants of Hurricane Ike combined with an Ohio Valley cold front to cause extremely strong winds across the region. In Louisville, countless trees were felled, over 1000 power lines were torn down, and more than 100 roads were blocked by debris. At one point, a record 237,000 people in Louisville were without power, some of whom were in the dark for a week or more. Many schools were closed for the whole week. Four fatalities were blamed on the storm. Meteorologically, three primary factors combined to produce the fierce winds. The interaction of Ike with the cold front helped reinvigorate the tropical system’s winds when it was well inland. Second, there was quite a bit of sunshine, which helped to “mix” the atmosphere and bring intense winds aloft down to the surface. Third, there was a very tight surface pressure gradient that moved rapidly northeast through the Ohio Valley. These phenomena are often responsible for strong winds in thunderstorms, but Corydon, Indiana there were actually no thunderstorms at all with Ike in this region. The winds were instead associated with a very strong large-scale storm system. Wind gusts over 60 mph were recorded from Kentucky to New Hampshire as the system raced to the northeast.

For more information on these events, see our website at www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=past_events

TORNADOES TORNADOES SNOWSTORM JANUARY 29 FEBRUARY 5-6 MARCH 7-8 A powerful cold front sparked a A squall line combined with Snow fell throughout much of lengthy squall line that crossed thunderstorms to give Kentucky and southern Indiana, all of southern Indiana and us our second-most prolific tor- including up to a foot of accu- central Kentucky. A large num- nado outbreak on record. Four mulation along and either side ber of locations had 60 to 100 people lost their lives in one of of the Ohio River, with Louis- mph winds, causing extensive two EF-3 tornadoes that tore ville receiving some of the high- property damage. There were across Allen and Monroe Coun- est amounts. Fortunately the also four short-lived tornadoes, ties. Nineteen tornadoes roared storm occurred over a weekend one of which led to a fatality through central Kentucky. and was well forecast. when a tree fell onto a mobile Temperatures warmed soon home near Henryville, Indiana. after the storm, however, which led to significant flooding.

Henryville, Indiana Frankfort, Kentucky Crawford County, Indiana 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSION Austin, Indiana, September 9, 2008 The National Weather Service provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United OUR GOALS FOR 2009 States, its territories, adja- cent waters and ocean areas, • for the protection of life and Update our website, and make them more user-friendly property and the enhance- • ment of the national econ- Create a comprehensive winter weather briefing page omy. NWS data and products • Decrease our tornado warning false alarm rate by 10% form a national information database and infrastructure • Partner with structural engineers, media, the Civil Air Patrol, and which can be used by other governmental agencies, the other aviation groups for more detailed damage surveys private sector, the public, and • Continue our local leadership enrichment program the global community.

The Louisville office of the • Improve our skill at forecasting fog and low temperatures NWS opened on September 11, 1871, and has faithfully • Redefine our short term forecast philosophy served the citizens of south- • ern Indiana and central Ken- Continue researching the September 14, 2008 windstorm tucky ever since. We look • forward to continuing to offer Create a plan to improve gridded data services our service to the community • Hold a Customer Input Workshop to help NWS Louisville staff for many years to come, through the tireless efforts, better understand how customers use our products dedication, and leadership of • our entire staff. Work with Kentucky Emergency Managers and state parks to make all state parks StormReady

• Provide career development and scientific training at Valparaiso, Ball State, Purdue, and Western Kentucky Universities

• Develop on-line spotter training materials

• National Weather Service Work with Franklin County Emergency Management to adjust the 6201 Theiler Lane river stages on the Kentucky River at Frankfort Louisville, Kentucky 40229 • Compare the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of February 2008 Ph. 502.969.8842 with the Enigma Tornado Outbreak of February 1884 over roughly the same region Fax 502.968.5663 • Perform NWR signal strength surveys for our entire area of [email protected] responsibility

• Complete various GIS projects, including the flash flood hotspots and NWR signal strength mapping

• Conduct research on typical large scale weather regimes that result in heavy snows for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

Austin, Indiana, September 9, 2008