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The South African Threat Agenda: Between Political Agendas, Perceptions and Contradictions* Abel Esterhuyse

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The South African Threat Agenda: Between Political Agendas, Perceptions and Contradictions* Abel Esterhuyse Esterhuyse, The South African Threat Agenda | THEMENSCHWERPUNKT The South African Threat Agenda: Between Political Agendas, Perceptions and Contradictions* Abel Esterhuyse Abstract: The article traces the intricacies of the South African threat agenda since 1994. Historically, the South African threat agenda at various times had to contend with the influence of European powers in Africa, the possibility of a landward invasion from Africa, and the risk of an internal uprising. Since democratisation in 1994, the ruling elite’s threat perception has been shaped by the idea of human security. The harsh realities of the African security environment together with various bureaucratic challenges made operationalization of human security a daunting task. The article concludes by arguing that South Africa finds it increasingly difficult to balance the need for nuanced relationships with its traditional economic partners in the West, with constructive engagement and political ambitions in Africa and the global south, and the historical partnerships of the governing African National Congress as a political party. Keywords: South Africa, security, threat perception, defence Schlagworte: Südafrika, Sicherheit, Bedrohungswahrnehmung, Verteidigung 1. Introduction1 through the formation of the Union of South Africa in 1910, remained fairly consistent. South African security thinking trategy, and by implication the threat agenda, is adversarial and defence preparation were, firstly, always influenced by a in nature; it is developed with an opposing and destabilising non­African power or powers with the ability to project force 2 security entity in mind. That does not imply that the setting in Africa. At various times before the First World War, South Sof the threat agenda is a straightforward, logical process derived African threat perception had to contend with the intentions from any complexity. Developing a list of possible threats to a of different European powers. After the Second World War, the country and generating appropriate responses to address those South African threat perception was dominated by the growing 3 threats are only limited by time and imagination. Thus, the Soviet presence in Africa and the Cuban military support for threat agenda, like security, must be given content or substance; the MPLA government in Angola. Britain and France, as the 4 it must be defined. Annette Seegers points out, “…power defines main suppliers of armaments to the South African government, 5 security” and “…all regime types define security in a self­interested, also influenced South African defence preparation at the time. 6 often anti­democratic manner”. How was the South African Secondly, the possibility of a landward invasion from Africa threat agenda defined since 1994, and what was its content? seems to be a constant feature on the South African threat South Africa has always been a complex strategic entity because agenda. Immediately after the creation of the Union, there was of its geographical, historical, ethnic and political diversity. The the possibility of an invasion by a colonial power with imperial article aims to provide some insight into the management of intentions. After the First World War, the focus shifted to the this strategic complexity by the South African government in possibility of an African revolt against colonial rule. In the Cold constructing and conceptualising the country’s threat agenda. War era, there was the threat of “… a possible Pan­African army The discussion is informed by a consideration of the historical formed by a coalition of newly liberated states”.7 Thirdly, the context, the conceptual drivers of the threat agenda since 1994, possibility of an internal uprising has been a constant feature the concrete strategic realities that confronted the country, and the of the South African threat perception. The people or groups role of Africa as the primary geographic focus of the threat agenda. involved and their motivations shifted over time – from the Afrikaners to the English, the poor white working classes, the black population and various ethnic groups. Of course, the 2. The Historical Context priority assigned to each one of the threats over time was largely influenced by the ruling elite’s outlook on security. In spite of strategic complexity, the drivers of South Africa’s Before the end of apartheid and democratisation in 1994, the threat perception, since the creation of modern South Africa South African security and threat agenda was dominated by * This article has been double blind peer reviewed. what one may call the ‘three­war framework’: the Cold War, 1 This article is partly based on an article entitled “Human Security and the wars of decolonisation in Africa and the anti­apartheid the Conceptualisation of South African Defence: Time for a Reappraisal” published in the May 2016 (Vol 38, No 1) edition of the Strategic Review struggle. South African military involvement in the Angolan for Southern Africa. Civil War and Mozambique unfolded against the backdrop of 2 Gray, CS & Johnson, JL, “The Practice of Strategy”, Baylis, J, Wirtz J, Gray, CS and Cohen E (eds), Strategy in the Contemporary World, Oxford the Cold War in Africa. As a colonial and occupying power in University Press, Oxford, 2013, (4th edition), pp. 365­366. Namibia, the South African counterinsurgency campaign against 3 Lambakis, S, Kiras, J, Kolet, K. “Understanding “Asymmetric” Threats to the United States”. National Institute for Public Policy, September the South West African People’s Organisation (SWAPO) inside 2002, p. 13. Namibia was conducted against the backdrop of the process of 4 Seegers, A. “The new security in democratic South Africa: A cautionary tale”. Conflict, Security & Development 10/2. 2010. p. 264. 5 Ibid. 7 Van der Waag, I, The Military History of Modern South Africa, Jonathan 6 Ibid., p. 267. Ball, Johannesburg, 2015. p. 2. DOI: 10�5771/0175-274X-2016-3-191 https://doi.org/10.5771/0175-274X-2016-3-191 S+F (34� Jg�) 3/2016 | 191 Generiert durch IP '170.106.35.76', am 25.09.2021, 11:04:17. Das Erstellen und Weitergeben von Kopien dieses PDFs ist nicht zulässig. SuF_03_16_Inhalt_3.Umbruch.indd 191 27.10.16 08:26 THEMENSCHWERPUNKT | Esterhuyse, The South African Threat Agenda decolonisation in Africa. Whilst these two wars were fought reflected in the 1994 ANC election manifesto.15 The Military outside South Africa, the real threat to the apartheid regime Research Group (MRG), the Institute for Defence Policy (IDP) unfolded inside the country in the fight against apartheid.8 From and the Centre for Conflict Resolution (CCR) were the key a threat perspective, the struggle against apartheid was the key drivers of the new security agenda in South Africa. Motivated factor in the development of the idea of a ‘total onslaught’ by the by the demands of a government requesting assistance and the apartheid government and, as a consequence, the formulation supply of activists and donors seeking influence, the military of the so­called ‘total strategy’ to counter such an onslaught.9 became a key driver of the new security agenda. In the end, the Both the ideas of ‘total onslaught’ and ‘total strategy’, as a matter new security agenda – and now largely accounting for human of irony, necessitated a comprehensive (total) understanding security – was presented in African language as different “… of security. However, the securitisation of all sectors of society calabashes of security”.16 and programmes of government led to the militarisation of the Since 1994, a wide variety of policy and strategic documents South African society in general and its government in particular. have been approved by the South African policy makers to effect the necessary changes in the South African security outlook. These include, amongst others, the 1996 Defence White Paper, 3. Democratisation and the Threat Agenda the two Defence Reviews published since 1994, the working documents of the Department of International Relations and Since democratisation in the 1994, the South African definition Cooperation (DIRCO), and the White Paper on South African of security, the country’s threat agenda and, as a consequence, its Participation in Peacekeeping. Of these, the 1996 Defence White defence preparations has predominantly been shaped by, firstly, Paper is of particular interest. It was not only the first policy the reconceptualisation of security as a scholarly and policy document in the security domain since democratisation in construct and, secondly, as a result of this, a reconfiguration of the 1994; it also clearly articulated the security outlook and threat role of the military in society. The theoretical reconceptualisation perception of the newly elected ANC government. of security coincided with the end of the Cold War, the For the purposes of this article, two key issues from the 1996 publication of the United Nations (UN) Human Developmental White Paper on Defence should be highlighted. Firstly, there is Report 199410 and the process of democratisation in South an inward­focused approach to South Africa’s national security Africa. The reconceptualisation of security in the late 1980s that “… is no longer viewed as a predominantly military and early 1990s was informed by a need to broaden and deepen and police problem. It has been broadened to incorporate the thinking about the threat agenda to include both domestic political, economic, social and environmental matters. At the and non­military threats; in fact, to demilitarise the
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