CLIMATE RISK PROFILE SERIES ADAPTING GREEN INNOVATION CENTRES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ANALYSIS OF VALUE CHAIN ADAPTATION POTENTIAL Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya ©CIAT/StephanieMalyon ©Dansira Dembélé CCAFS Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya ABOUT THIS REPORT
Climate change is affecting agriculture more The report begins with an extensive than any other sector. Increased frequency literature reviews of the selected value Highlights and severity of drought, flood, heat, and chains and their key challenges and unseasonable rainfall heavily impact rainfed adaptation strategies. Climate hazards and » Agriculture is a main source of employment and income in Bungoma, Kakamega, agriculture, ultimately resulting in production crop suitability modelling offer insights into Siaya, and Nyandarua counties (Chapter 2, pg.9). losses. In that context, The Alliance of Bioversity potential future scenarios under climate change. International and the International Center for These results inform potential adaptation Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) through its climate approaches, which are prioritized by in-country » Agriculture is primarily practiced in a subsistence system characterized by sub- action lever, are developing climate risk profiles experts and stakeholders through an online optimal use of inputs, climate variability, over-reliance on rainfed agriculture, poor for agricultural value chains in developing survey. The top-rated adaptation priorities road connection, low soil fertility, and limited access to information on market countries at the national and subnational level. undergo a cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the prices, inputs, and technologies (Chapter 2, pg.16). These profiles build on past work conducted results are peer-reviewed by the GIC country by CIAT and the CGIAR Research Program on office and the Alliance scientific staff. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security » The government of Kenya has articulated policies and strategies that help farmers (CCAFS)in collaboration with the World Bank and adapt to climate change, enhance regional and national food security, and other partners, including FAO, USAID, DFID1. The Green Innovation Centres for the empower youth and women (Chapter 3, pg.19). Agriculture and Food Sector (GIC) founded The present report aims to provide a climate by German Federal Ministry for Economic and vulnerability analysis of the Green Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and led by the German Agency for International » However, weak institutional networks and a lack of guidelines and enforcement Innovation Centres (GIC) target commodity Cooperation (GIZ) in collaboration with local value chains. Herein we identify climate ministries and programmes, aims to promote structures at the county level limit the government and private sector efforts in change- related vulnerabilities, hazards, and agricultural innovation under the ONEWORLD responding to climate change (Chapter 4, pg.20). opportunities for adaptation to the same. No Hunger initiative. Through the GIC, GIZ aims to generate employment raise farmers’ Ultimately, our goal is to foster awareness of income, and improve farmers’ education and risks and adaptation priorities in the selected skills by funding training in good agricultural » Drought, extreme rainfall, and floods are the most pressing climatic hazards across value chains and inform climate investments practices, water management, post-harvest the sweet potato and milk value chains, both according to farmers’ perceptions and processing, and entrepreneurship. and planning through the recommendations on as confirmed by the stakeholders and climate projections(Chapter 5, pg.21-23). priority innovations to manage climate risks.
» Farmers already employ on-farm adaptation strategies to cope with the hazards, including the use of good agricultural practices, water harvesting, use of improved Planning, data Climate risk Identification Production of collection and assessment of adaptation the country seeds, and value addition where possible (Chapter 6, pg.30). stakeholder strategies climate profile engagement and validation » Conclusively the adaptation potential for the sweet potato and dairy value chain is promising. The cost-benefit analysis of sweet potato drought tolerant varieties and - Literature review - Hazard analysis - Detailed review - Peer-review the implementation of GAP indicate low to moderate risk and should therefore be (key documents - Crop suitability - Gap analysis and and datasets) modelling identification of advocated for adoption to smallholder farmers (Chapter 6, pg.34-35). climate adaptation
- Online survey - CBA analysis
1 https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/csa-country-profiles
2 3 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya Contents list of figures
ABOUT THE REPORT ...... 2 Figure 1. Map of the selected regions in Kenya ...... 9 Figure 2. Agriculture and livelihoods ...... 14 HIGHLIGHTS ...... 3 Figure 3. Historical monthly mean temperature and rainfall precipitation ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...... 7 (average of last 30 years) for Kakamega County. Bars represent total monthly precipitation, whereas lines represent maximum (blue line) and minimum (red 1 . INTRODUCTION ...... 8 line) monthly mean temperatures ...... 24 2 . AGRICULTURAL CONTEXT ...... 10 Figure 4. Historical (left), future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the maximum number of consecutive dry days for the first season (average 2.1. Economic relevance of farming 10 of last 30 years) in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya . . 24 2.2. People and livelihoods 10 Figure 5. Historical (left), future projected (center) and projected change (right) 2.3. Agricultural activities 12 for the number of moisture stress days for the first season (average of last 30 2.4. Agriculture value chain commodities 13 years) in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya ...... 25 2.4.1. Sweet potato 13 2.4.2. Milk 16 Figure 6. Historical (left), future projected (center) and projected change (right) 2.5. Agricultural sector challenges 16 for the number of days with a temperature above 35 °C for the first season (average of last 30 years) in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, 3 . POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS ON CLIMATE CHANGEE ...... 18 Kenya ...... 25 4 . GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES AND CAPACITY ...... 20 Figure 7. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability of sweet potato production in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, Counties, Kenya . . . . 26
5 . CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES ...... 22 Figure 8. Suitability change of sweet potato production in Bungoma, Kakamega, 5.1. Farmers’ perceptions on climate change 22 Siaya, Counties, Kenya ...... 27 5.2. Climate change and variability: historic and future trends 23 Figure 9. Yield for business as usual (BAU) versus the two innovations (good 5.3. Crop suitability analysis 26 agricultural management practice and improved drought resistant variety of 5.4. Climate vulnerabilities across agriculture value chain commodities 27 tubers) in sweet potatoes value chain in Kenya ...... 36 5.4.1. Sweet potato 27 5.4.2. Milk 28 6 . ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ...... 30 list of tables 6.1. On-farm adaptation strategies 30 6.2. Overall ranking of the adaptation strategies 32 Table 1. Specific practices within each practice group relevant to the focus value chains ...... 31 6.3. Cost benefit analysis of the prioritized adaptation strategies 35 Table 2. Adapting to climate change: strategies across major value chain 7 . SYNTHESIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 38 commodities ...... 33
8 . WORKS CITED ...... 42 Table 3. Summary Information on Installation, maintenance and operation costs for business as usual (BAU) and new innovations in sweet potato value chain in Kenya . .35 9 . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... 44 Table 4. Cost and benefit results for sweet potato value chain in Kenya...... 36
Table 5. Practice-group specific potential strategies and considerations for advancing CSA at scale ...... 40
4 5 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya Acronyms and Abbreviations
ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy ©CIAT/StephanieMalyon ASDSP The Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme
ASTGS Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy
AVCD Accelerated Value Chain Development
CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis
CDD Consecutive Dry Days
CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
CIDP County Integrated Development Plan
CIP International Potato Center
CSA Climate-Smart Agriculture
GAP Good Agricultural Practices
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIC Green Innovation Center
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for International Cooperations)
GOK Government of Kenya
ICT Information and Communications Technology
ILRI International Livestock Research Institute
KALRO Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization
KDB Kenya Dairy Board
KEFRI Kenya Forest Research Institute
KFS Kenya Forest Service
KMD Kenya Meteorological Department
KWS Kenya Wildlife Service
MOALF Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries
NEMA National Environmental Management Authority
NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations
OFSP Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato
SMS Short Message Service
6 7 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya 1 . Introduction
The agricultural sector is a key contributor (ICT) platforms to allocate loans. to Kenya’s economy and employment. For Kenya to achieve both its Vision 2030 targets This document presents a climate and
and current government objectives under the vulnerability analysis of the milk and ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Big 4 Agenda, it needs to enhance its resilience sweet potato value chains in Nyandarua, against climate variability and related risks. In Kakamega, Siaya, and Bungoma Counties. It most parts of the country, extreme events such is intended to inform value chain stakeholders, as frequent and prolonged drought, extreme policymakers, and the private sector on the temperatures, extreme and irregular rainfall, and climate change risks and opportunities in these hailstorms have become common phenomena. value chains. It will also help to integrate climate To enhance farmers’ resilience, the government change into the national development agenda. has instituted policies and programs that The climate risk profile was produced through address climate-related risks. The most recent a collaboration with the International Center strategies aim at enhancing food security, for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (now part of the empowering youth and women, and climate Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT). change mitigation and adaptation. These include Information was collected through literature the Agricultural Sector Development Support review, surveys, and interviews with experts Programme (ASDSP) Phase II and the Agricultural from the two value chains. In addition, climate Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy modeling, crop suitability analysis, and a cost- (ASTGS). benefit analysis were carried out for the specific counties and value chains. This climate risk Development agencies and the private profile is organized into six sections. This climate sector have formed collaborations with the risk profile is organized into six sections. The government to supplement its efforts. These first describes the importance of agriculture to include the German Agency for International people’s livelihoods in the four departments. Figure 1. Map of the selected regions Cooperations (GIZ); the Ministry of Agriculture, Section two highlights the policies, strategies, in Kenya Livestock, and Fisheries (MoALF); National and programs implemented in the three value Kenya is located in East Africa, Bukura Agricultural College; and other, locally- chains that address climate change, while the South of Somalia and Ethiopia, acting NGOs that are working together to third section discusses the governance and East of Uganda and North execute the Green Innovation Center (GICs) institutional resources and capacity. The fourth of Tanzania. The regions programs under the “ONEWORLD no Hunger” section discusses the main climatic hazards of study are Nyandarua, initiative.2 In Kenya’s agriculture and food sector, affecting the three value chains and presents Kakamega, Siaya, and these organizations are targeting the milk and climate modeling results for projected climatic Bungoma Counties. sweet potato value chains in Kakamega, Siaya, change-related hazards and crop suitability Bungoma, and Nyandarua Counties, which are maps. Additionally, it offers an analysis of located in the Western and Central parts of vulnerabilities and risks posed by these hazards BUNGOMA Kenya (Figure 1). Through the GICs, GIZ aims to to the respective value chains. The ongoing on- enhance farmers’ income, create employment, farm adaptation strategies adopted by farmers and improve farmers’ education; to introduce to cope with these hazards as well as the cost SIAYA new varieties of sweet potato and forage benefit analysis results are discussed in the fifth grass; to disseminate new procedures; and use section. The sixth section provides a synthesis kakamega Information Communication and Technology and recommendations.
2 The Green Innovation Centers are also implemented in other countries targeting different value chains namely, Ethiopia, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Cameroon, Togo, Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Mali, Tunisia, India, and Vietnam. NYANDARUA
8 9 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
County has the largest population and the Youth literacy levels among the four counties 2 . Agricultural Context highest population density (1,867,579 persons; is high. Youth literacy level6 is a crucial measure 618 per km2), of which 48% are male and 52% of a country’s progress towards enhancing Key messages female, with an average household size of 4.3 education for all. In Bungoma, Nyandarua, and persons (GOK, 2019). It is followed closely by Siaya counties it is 88%, and in Kakamega county Bungoma county (1,670,570 persons; 552 per it is 80.60%. (GOK, 2018b). These rates can be » Agriculture is the main economic activity in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and km2), of which 49% are male and 51% female, attributed to the success of the free primary Nyandarua counties, employing more than half of the population in each. with an average household size of 4.6 persons. and secondary education introduced in Kenya in » Agricultural production is dominated by small-scale farmers who produce for Siaya is third (993,183 persons; 393 per km2), 2003. household consumption. It is primarily rainfed; and is characterized by low levels of of which 47% are male and 53% female, with an inputs such as herbicides, fertilizers, and organic manures. average household size of 3.9 persons. Finally, Ownership of mobile phones and access to Nyandarua County has a population of 638,289 the internet are correlated with enhanced » Climate risks such as drought, erratic rainfall, and flooding endanger crop and (194 per km2), of which 49% are male and extension services in Kenya (Tata and livestock production and increase incidence of poor rood connections at both the 51% female, with an average household size McNamara, 2018). Currently, several companies input acquisition and the market stages of the value chain. of 3.5 persons. All four counties boast a high offer market prices, input access information, » The sweet potato and dairy value chains are important for the Kenyan economy and percentage rural population, at 81-89%. and good agricultural practices (GAP) to for food security. Sweet potatoes are used for human food consumption and for farmers via short message service (SMS) and livestock feed throughout Kenya, but consumption currently outpaces production. Around a third of the population in each mobile applications. Nationally, 68.8% of rural Milk accounts for 8% of the country’s GDP. country is classified as poor. The lowest rate homesteads own a mobile phone, compared to is in Siaya County, at 33.8%, and the highest is which most people (85.6%) in Nyandarua own in Kakamega at 35.8% (GOK, 2018a). However, a mobile phone;7 Siaya (74.5%) and Kakamega this is lower than the national poverty rate of (70.8%) are also above the national average, 40.1% in rural areas. Poverty rates and access while 66.7% of people in Bungoma have access 2.1. Economic relevance of farming In general, household incomes from to basic goods and services such as water to mobile phones (GOK, 2018b). The four agriculture are variable across the four and electricity are good measures of people’s counties have levels of internet connectivity that The counties of Siaya, Bungoma, and countries. On average, agricultural income— wellbeing. Most of the households in these are lower than the national average of 29.9% but Kakamega are located in the Western mainly generated by on-farm activities—was counties are dependent on kerosene for lighting higher than the average for rural homesteads Province of Kenya, while Nyandarua County estimated at 98,757 KSh3 per year in Nyandarua; and firewood and charcoal for cooking. However, of 16.7%. Internet connectivity ranges from is located in the Central. Kakamega County 48,635 KSh in Bungoma; 87,858 KSh in they have quite different rates of access to 20.9% in Kakamega to 28.6% in Nyandarua, shares a boundary to the south with Siaya Kakamega; and 31,961 KSh in Siaya county.4 electricity: only 10.20% of the population in (GOK, 2018b). These statistics indicate why County and the north with Bungoma County. Except for Bungoma county, where youth- Siaya, 10.80% in Bungoma, 15.10% in Kakamega, most extension companies prefer to use SMS to Siaya County is the largest, covering 3,535 Km2, headed households receive the highest income, and 26.70% in Nyandarua (GOK, 2018b). Drinking disseminate essential information to small-scale followed by Nyandarua (3,245.3 Km2), Kakamega in these counties, adult male-headed households water statistics indicate that 72.6% of Kenyans farmers, rather than applications that require (3050.3 Km2), and Bungoma County (3032.3 Km2). generally have the highest income, followed generally and 61.8% of those living in rural Internet connectivity. by youth-headed, and adult female-headed areas have access to improved drinking water Agriculture is the main economic activity households. The mean value of total household sources.5 People in Bungoma (75.7%), Nyandarua Relatively high levels of food insecurity mean in the four counties. The agricultural sector income is 310,044 KSh (annual per capita (81.9%) and Kakamega (89.9%) have better that intervention programs should aim at employs 80% in Kakamega, 61% in Siaya, 62% in income estimated at 62,009 KSh) in Nyandarua; access to drinking water than the national and enhancing both food security and farmers’ Bungoma, and 50% in Nyandarua. In Nyandarua 224,577KSh (37,429 KSh) in Kakamega; 153,753 rural statistics. In Siaya County, however, only incomes. Access to food and nutrition level County, 76.9% of farming households are KSh (22,900 KSh) in Bungoma; and 124,286 KSh 57.1% of the population has access to improved determines people’s wellbeing and their ability engaged in crop farming and 65.1% in livestock (24,857 KSh) in Siaya. water sources (GOK, 2018b). to perform most of the agricultural activities farming (Figure 2). Apart from agriculture, people that are labor-intensive. Food poverty rates8 in the County are involved in small business activities and artisan works. In Bungoma county, 2.2. People and livelihoods crops represented 43% of total household 5 Improved drinking water is defined as having obtained water from piped water, borehole with pump, protected spring, protected well, income, while livestock made up 14%. Based on the 2019 census results, Kakamega rain water and bottled water. 6 In this case Youth are defined as people between the age of 15-24 years. 7 The estimates are based on people above 18 years. 3 1 USD is approximately 106Ksh in June 2020 8 Food poverty at a household level is defined as a household that lacks enough food to meet the energy and nutrient needs of all the 4 According to a survey conducted by the Agricultural Sector Development Support Program (ASDP) in 2013. members.
10 11 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya in the four counties stand between 27.3% in 25% is under cultivation while the rest is in Lugari and Likuyani sub-counties, maize is 2.4. Agricultural value chain Siaya and 33.3% in Kakamega (GOK, 2018a). under protected forests. Overall, 48% of the considered a cash crop because it is grown at commodities Nyandarua county has the highest rates of total county land is under cultivation and 8.5% large scale. County-wide, the average farm size While the four counties have diverse malnutrition, with 29.4% of children below five is under natural pasture (GOK, 2015f; GOK is 1.5 ha for smallholders and 4 ha for large- agricultural production systems, the GIC has years stunted and 2% wasted. In Siaya County, 2019b). The average land size in Nyandarua is scale farmers. However, only 38.6% of farmers prioritized the milk and sweet potato value the percentages are the lowest among the 8.9 ha in low-potential areas and 2 ha in high- have access to title deeds, due to the inheritance chains for their importance within each four, with 24.7% of children below five years potential area. The average landholding size has system of land ownership whereby land is county and their potential for contributing to stunted and 0.2% wasted (GOK, 2015). The decreased due to urban sprawl that reduces the subdivided generationally while the title deed food security. higher incidence of stunted and wasted children available amount of agricultural land, mainly in remains with the original landowner—in most in Nyandarua can be attributed to low dietary high potential areas. Additionally, demand for cases, the father or grandfather. 2.4.1. Sweet potato diversity and a cultural dependence on Irish land in high-potential regions has increased. Sweet potato is consumed by many Kenyans potatoes. A large proportion of the household This has also led to increased issuance of title Bungoma county falls under five distinct and it is also utilized in animal feed. It is income in all the counties is spent on foods, deeds to reduce land conflicts and conmanship. AEZs, due to Mt. Elgon. The Tropical Alpine and a good source of potassium, beta carotene, ranging from 62% (Bungoma) to 68.9% (Siaya). Nearly 93% of farming household have title Upper Highlands zones have little crop potential and Vitamin A. The crop plays a crucial role This is a clear indication that most of the deeds to their land parcels. Most farmers and are under forest reserves. Cultivation of in reducing malnutrition, eye problems, and households in the counties are unable to meet in the area practice subsistence farming food crops happens in the Lower Highlands, stunting among children. Sweet potato leaves their other basic needs as most of their income although some have ventured into commercial Upper Midlands, and Lower Midlands AEZs. are consumed as vegetables and are also fed is spent on food. agriculture to meet increased demand for 95% of the total land area is considered arable, to animals. Sweet potatoes can grow in harsh agricultural products in the neighboring of which 70% is under food crops and 29% is climatic conditions, which makes the crop The main food crops in all four counties are urban counties of Nairobi and Nakuru. As a under cash crops (GOK, 2015d; GOK 2019d). The essential in countries concerned about food varied. In Siaya, Bungoma, and Kakamega, the result of increased demand and good farming average farm size is less than 1 ha for small-scale security and enhancing farmers’ livelihoods. main food crops are maize, beans, sorghum, conditions, Nyandarua county is currently the farmers and 4 ha for large-scale farmers, who millet, and sweet potato. In Nyandarua, maize, leading producer of Irish potatoes, cut flowers, are mainly found within the Mt. Elgon region. Currently, consumption of sweet potatoes Irish potatoes, carrots, and peas and widely cabbages, and snow peas. The County is Only 34.1% of households have title deeds to in Kenya outpaces production. In 2014, sweet cultivated. Bungoma County also cultivates categorized into three distinct agro-ecological their land. Most people in Bungoma County potato production in Kenya was estimated at bananas, vegetables, and Irish potatoes; its zones (AEZs), namely the Tropical Alpine, Upper acquire their land through inheritance: 65.9% 763,643 tons, with a productivity rate of 12.5 main cash crops include sugarcane, cotton, Highland, and Lower highland (See Annex). of households reside in their ancestral land and tons per ha. However, the national consumption sunflower, and tobacco. Siaya County have no official documents of ownership. of sweet potato was 1,035,000 tons, exceeding additionally cultivates cassava and vegetables; Siaya County, located in the Lower Midlands the country’s production capacity. Among the its cash crops include soya beans, cotton, AEZ, has 81% of its total land area classified The use of agricultural inputs is higher in counties highlighted in this report, Bungoma is sugarcane, and groundnuts. In Nyandarua as arable; of this, 75.3% is under food crops Nyandarua County than the other three the leading producer of sweet potato, producing county, farmers’ main cash crops are cut and only 2% is under cash crops (GOK, 2015c; under review. Here, the use of herbicides 133,037 tons (24.2 tons per ha), followed flowers, wheat, and fruits. In Kakamega County, GOK 2019c). The average land holding size for stands at 27%, fertilizers at 68%, and organic by Siaya at 46,306 tons (13.3 tons per ha), farmers also cultivate peas, cassava, and small-scale farmers is below 3 ha; large-scale manure at 43%. Based on a survey conducted Kakamega county at 24,770 tons (8.3 tons per arrowroots, while the main cash crops include farmers hold on average 7 ha. Only 35% of by the Agricultural Sector Development ha), and, lastly, Nyandarua county at 245 tons tea and sugarcane. farmers have title deeds to their land parcels. Support Program (ASDP) in 2013, in Kakamega (11.7 tons per ha) (GOK 2015b). The productivity Given the low levels of title deed ownership and County, it was estimated that only 5.9% of rate of Siaya County indicates its potential to The main livestock reared are cattle, sheep, increased transactional costs and bureaucracy farmers used herbicides, 54.1% used basal become a key producer of sweet potato. goats, and poultry. Nearly all households in the Ministry of Lands, informal land fertilizers and 51.4% used top dressing, and in Siaya, Bungoma, and Kakamega counties subdivision has been on the rise in Siaya. 38.8% used organic manure. In Siaya County Government and research organizations have keep indigenous chicken and rear pigs, bees, ASDEP estimated that 19% of the farmers use advocated for the adoption of orange fleshed donkeys, and rabbits. 68% of cattle reared in In Kakamega County, located in the Upper herbicides, 41.1% used basal fertilizer and 15% sweet potato (OFSP) varieties. These are more Kakamega county are Zebu. and Lower Midland AEZs, 72% of the total used top dressing, and 39.5% used organic nutritious and profitable than the local sweet land area is considered arable. Of the total manure. In Bungoma County, it was estimated potato varieties. However, the adoption of OFSP land area, however, 83% is under cultivation that 6.2% of the farmers used herbicides, varieties remains low in Kenya. This has been 2.3. Agricultural activities with 37% under food crops and 46% under 60.8% used basal fertilizer and 38.8% used top attributed to the low availability of vines, low cash crops. The county’s the main cash crop dressing, and 21.8% used organic manure. About 62% of the total land area in marketing potential due to low demand, limited is sugarcane (GOK, 2015e; GOK 2019a), but Nyandarua is considered arable; of this,
12 13 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
Figure 2. Livelihoods and agriculture DEMOGRAPHICS FARMING ACTIVITIES KENYA’s population ungoma ercentage o Cultivated cash Crops ND yandarua FOOD Crops ND yandarua 3.51% male vs female 1,670,570 area or food 2,648 ha iaya 155,051 ha iaya 47,564,296 inha itants population crops vs 141,429 ha Ka amega 114,053 ha Ka amega Ka amega cash crops ungoma 86,423 ha ungoma 201,654 ha ungoma 3.93% 1,867,579 51% 49% inha itants
CATTLE GOAT yandarua Ka amega 52% 48% Sheep POULTRY 1.34% 638,289 DAIRY BEEF DAIRY BEEF DAIRY BEEF inha itants 314,810 30,620 5,698 492,591 337,598 427,517 yandarua 51% 49% 88,429 4,656 260,252 ND 932,505 iaya 2.09% 993,183 iaya inha itants 51% 49% FOOD SECURITY
30% yandarua opulation yandarua iaya yandarua iaya yandarua iaya yandarua iaya suffering 27% iaya rom food ote: ata or Kakamega and Bungoma were not disclosed or Nyandarua county, the data on goats was not disaggreagted 33% Ka amega into dairy and ee poverty 32% ungoma ACCESS TO BASIC NEEDS
ercentage o ercentage ercentage ercentage o total iaya yandarua household income o children o children households with % % spent on ood stunted asted access to Ka amega 0.6 0.2 iaya electricity or coo ing 0% ungoma ungoma Ka amega yandarua 69% o% 64% 63% 62% % opulation 29 25% 28% 24% living in % % % % a solute 2 0 2 2 poverty 35% 34% 36% 36% ercentage o total yandarua iaya households with iaya iaya yandarua iaya Ka amega ungoma access to electricity ungoma ungoma Ka amega Ka amega yandarua yandarua outh literacy rate or lighting 27% 10% FARMING years old
yandarua ara le ND yandarua 91% Ka amega ungoma yandarua 62% o land in iaya 35% iaya % the iaya 81% armers 89 with title Ka amega county Ka amega 72% ND Ka amega 81% 15% 11% deeds ungoma 95% ND ungoma ungoma 88%
N Not isclosed
14 15 14 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya information on nutritional benefits, and low form (Rademaker et al., 2016). On the other in Siaya and Bungoma counties, floods are an Over 60% of farmers in Bungoma, Kakamega, value addition capability (Kaguongo et al. 2012). hand, the formal market channel entails the occasional phenomenon whenever heavy rains and Siaya counties lack deeds to their farms. processing of pasteurized milk, yogurt, cheese, are experienced. They lead to increased soil This limits investment in capital-intensive, The sweet potato marketing value chain is ghee, cream, and powdered milk. This sector is degradation, waterlogging, washing away of climate-smart practices. Coupled with cultural similar among the four counties. It starts dominated by private milk processors, whose nutrients, and—in most cases—crop failure. norms that restrict women from ownership of with the farmers, who take their produce main product is pasteurized milk. Production Failures further exacerbate food insecurity and both family and private land, limits government to the market and sell it either to brokers activities, mainly feeding and milking, are incidences malaria and water-borne diseases, and organizations’ efforts in promoting water or traders. Some traders purchase to sell predominantly carried out by women and youth, reducing productive labour forces and affecting conservation structures, agroforestry, irrigation, within the local market while others repackage although men control the income from the sale dairy production. among other climate-smart technologies that are the potatoes to sell in major urban markets of milk. capital intensive. This demonstrates the need (such as Nairobi, Nakuru, Kisumu, Kericho, Poor crop husbandry and low adoption of and urgency to land reforms and enforcement if and Mombasa). Brokers are mainly involved in In all four counties, the major dairy breeds soil and water conservation practices have existing land policies. cleaning, sorting, packing, and loading of sacks are Ayrshire, Friesian, Jersey, Guernsey, and results into degraded natural resources and into trucks. At the urban markets, retailers crossbreeds. The dairy sector in Nyandarua low soil fertility. This has partly been explained purchase from the traders and then sell to other, county is more developed than in the other by high poverty rates and low access to deeds, smaller retailers or to final consumers. The three counties, having fewer crossbreeds both circumstances that limit farmers’ ability sweet potato market can be classified into either compared to the other three counties. Crossbred and willingness to invest in soil and water rural or urban markets. cows generally have lower productivity; however, conservation practices. Enhanced land tenure they play a key role in the value chain since most would help to encourage farmers to confidently Given that sweet potatoes are highly farmers are unable to purchase high-productivity use these practices on their parcels of land. perishable, several value addition activities breeds. Additionally, crossbreeds are more Diminishing land parcels and low soil fertility have been introduced along the value chain. adopted to local conditions such as high heat, limit farmers’ ability to practice fallowing, thus Basic value addition includes cleaning, sorting, low quality fodder, low availability of water, forcing them to practice monocropping, which and transporting. However, in recent years, diseases, and pest. leads to low agricultural productivity. processing sweet potatoes into flour, baking them into bread and scones, or slicing and Most farmers in the four counties are small Sub-optimal use of inputs coupled with over- drying them have also been adopted. Opting scale and rely on rains for livestock feeds. reliance on rain-fed agriculture negatively out of old value addition channels and into Forage and feed are limited due to the lack influence agricultural production in the newer value addition options has increased of land to produce fodder, as most farmers counties. Given poverty rates and the high cost farmers’ income. Unfortunately, sweet potato prioritize their land for food crop cultivation. of inputs, most farmers are unable to optimally farmers are faced with challenges, such as the However, in Nyandarua County some farmers utilize key inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, procurement of clean seeds and vines; poor have dedicated land for forage production. herbicides, improved seeds and varieties, roads, especially in rainy seasons; fluctuations in During the rainy seasons, there is generally an and animal feeds (See Section 2.2.). Increased prices; uncontrolled packaging standards; and overproduction of forage—and therefore milk— incidence of crop and livestock diseases, dubious traders. compared to the dry season. This leads to price including tick-borne diseases, Rift Valley fever, fluctuations. and trypanosomiasis, exacerbate the situation 2.4.2. Milk and lead to increased food insecurity. The dairy sector contributes 8% of the Kenyan gross domestic product (GDP), with 2.5. Agricultural sector challenges Poor road connections, especially in annual milk production estimated at 3.43 Bungoma, Kakamega, and Nyandarua Nyandarua county, affects farmers’ ability to billion liters. 80% of the sector is made up of counties can be classified as areas of transport their produce during rainy seasons. smallholder farmers with one to three cows. The Nyandarua county deals with highly perishable high agricultural potential. However, low dairy value chain can be classified as informal or agricultural productivity continues to be commodities such as milk, Irish potatoes, cut formal based on the marketing channels used. problem due to climatic, socio-economic, flowers, and cabbages; these commodities The informal market channel, which makes up and institutional factors. Hazards related to require a good road network. This is situation nearly 70% of the total value chain, entails the climate change adversely affect agricultural is made worse by a lack of storage facilities that marketing of raw fresh milk by selling directly to production. These hazards include drought, farmers could utilize to extend the shelf life of consumers or vendors that resell it in the same extreme rainfall, hail, and flooding. For instance, their produce.
16 17 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
and value addition while improving food CSA, integrated soil fertility management, soil and 3 . Policies, Strategies and resilience. ASTGS proposes a subsidy program water conservation, irrigation development, and that focuses on selected inputs through improved extension services. In most cases, the Programs on Climate Change e-vouchers. It aids poor farmers by improving CIDP aim to improve extension services by hiring their access to inputs, thus mitigating problems new extension officers and training the existing Key messages of low access and suboptimal use of inputs. staff members. They also target improved access Additionally, it helps farmers realize the benefits to veterinary services and quality farm inputs of value addition and enhanced productivity. through the provision of subsidized services. For » Both national and local governments in Kenya are aware of adverse climate effects the value chains under consideration here, the and have established policies and strategies aimed at helping farmers mitigate targeted inputs include fertilizer and improved negative climate effects. The ASDSP was first formulated in 2011 to help Kenya realize its goals of achieving a 10 seeds varieties. Increased value addition for key » Women and youth engagement is an important policy consideration at the national percent annual growth rate and to support crops, the construction of livestock markets, and and local levels. the strategies laid out in the Agricultural access to agricultural finance are also important Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) 2010- components of the CIDPs. » Enactment and enforcement of policies is uneven, and would benefit from enhanced 2020. After completion of Phase I, Phase II of cooperation and coordination. ASDSP was developed to cover 2016-2022. Each of the counties under review has Phase II aims at promoting sustainable value additional, specific agricultural policy goals. chains prioritized for improved income, food, Kakamega County aims to enhance farmers’ and nutrition security. This is done by enhancing entrepreneurial skills and the develop The national and local governments in Kenya adaptation and build resilience by addressing productivity, the capacity of existing service farmers’ cooperatives to improve market have acknowledged the adverse effect vulnerabilities due to changes in rainfall providers, and the adoption of climate-smart access and value addition. Bungoma County’s climate change has on agricultural activities and temperature, extreme weather events, agricultural and green growth intervention plan includes enhancing the issuance of crop and people’s economic welfare. In doing so, unsustainable land, and water management and practices and technologies. Given the importance insurance and soil testing. In Siaya County, the they have partnered with other developmental utilization. In doing so, it aims to establish an of agribusiness, the policy aims to enhance government also plans to subsidize tractor partners to establish policies, strategies, and enabling policy, legal, and institutional framework entrepreneurship along the value chain. This ploughing services. Lastly, Nyandarua County programs that can address the effects of climate for effective implementation of CSA practices. It includes a focus on improved access to markets, aims to promote the use of contract farming, change and agricultural productivity, with a key also aims to minimize the effects of underlying, market linkages, market information relays, water harvesting, greenhouse technology, and focus on youth and gender inclusion. cross-cutting issues, such as human resource financial services, and improved participation the construction of milk cooling plants. These Recently, the national government formulated capacity and finance, that can constrain the of stakeholders in consultation, cooperation, separate interventions at the county level are The National Root and Tubers Crop Development realization of CSA objectives. This strategy plays a and coordination structures. The creation essential to enhance farm productivity and Strategy (2019-2022). This strategy aims at key role in creating a conducive environment for of a conducive agribusiness sector is vital to improve farmers’ livelihood and income. enhancing the adoption of drought-resistant, collaboration with other developmental partners. transforming the Kenyan agricultural sector from high yielding, early maturing, disease tolerant, Full realization of enhanced adaptation capability a simple subsistence level to a key economic All the stated policies, strategies, and and nutritionally-improved varieties of sweet helps to address most of the problems that sector that is a crucial source of income, programs both at the National and County potato and other tuber crops. Additionally, it farmers face, such as low soil fertility and land employment, and food security. The policy also level are youth- and gender-sensitive. They strengthens market linkages through involving degradation. targets the sweet potato and milk value chains aim to create an environment that is empowering stakeholders across the value chain to design specifically and is well positioned to enhance for both women and youth in agriculture. an effective market where farmers are not The Agricultural Sector Transformation and market coordination by reducing transaction price victimized. Implementing the strategies Growth Strategy (ASTGS) 2019-2029 was costs and enhancing value addition. Financial However, the implementation of these would enhance farmers’ productive capacity formulated to realize the goal of a hunger- services will be essential in helping farmers policies and strategies is impacted by and improve market coordination by reducing and food insecurity-free country, as stated access key resources to obtain necessary inputs obstacles ranging from inadequacy and dubious traders and transactional cost and in the 2010 Constitution. The program aims at and enhance productivity. misappropriation of funds, to poor monitoring improving price transmission across all value increasing the income of smallholder farmers and evaluation, and insufficient enforcement chain actors. through the adoption of new technologies such In addition to these national policies, county of stated policies. This uneven situation as solar-driven irrigation, artificial insemination, governments have also developed policies and warrants institutional capacity enhancement The Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture cultivation high-value crops, and enhanced strategies aimed at enhancing agricultural to ensure the proper coordination, effective Strategy (2017-2026) was formulated with creation of small and medium enterprises along productivity. Through individual CIDP 2018- planning, and reduced bureaucracy that will more emphasis on dealing with climate and the sweet potato, dairy, and other prioritized 2022, each county has elaborated plans to allow for successful fulfillment of the policies, agriculture in general. It aims to increase value chains. It also aims enhance production modernize agriculture through investment in strategies, and programs.
18 19 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
production of sweet potato by linking farmers to manufacturing of sweet-potato-based breads, 4 . Governance, institutional markets and input suppliers. Kenya Red Cross scones, and cakes. is actively engaged with smallholder farmers in resources and capacity Western Kenya that were affected by the recent However, several factors still impede the floods of 2020. Most NGOs in Kenya partner with implementation of these projects. Some Key messages community-based organizations, farmer-based institutions have embraced the power of organizations, and women and youth groups collaboration, but others implement their » There are many governmental ministries which oversee parts of the agricultural to implement their projects and programs. This projects in isolation, leading to duplication sector and which are responsible for climate change mitigation and adaptation approach, called participatory planning, has of projects and waste of resources. Other efforts. been successful because it helps create a sense organizations lack the required technical, of project ownership and trust. financial, and human resource capacity to » There is also a multiplicity of NGOs; faith-, community-, and farmer-based successfully implement the projects that can organizations; and research institutions working in the sector. Several research institutions are actively enhance farmers’ resilience against the adverse » Many of these organizations engage in participatory planning by partnering with involved with farmers in the four counties. effects of climate change. local groups to create a sense of ownership and trust. These include the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), CIAT, and the Additionally, at the county level, local » However, increased coordination and cooperation among institutions would International Potato Center (CIP) (all of which fall governments lack guidelines for enforcing prevent rework and support local governments, who sometimes lack the resources under the CGIAR umbrella), which are all actively some of the policies and programs designed or guidelines necessary to enforce national and local policies. involved with farmers in the four counties. at the county and national levels. Moreover, ILRI, through its Accelerated Value Chain the national government also lacks a good Development program, trains farmers on the enforcing framework. Due to this, some benefits and planting techniques of brachiaria national programs—like ASDEP and ASTGS— grass as forage for dairy livestock. CIP promotes are implemented by several governmental Several public and private organizations of Cooperatives and Marketing. These state the production and consumption of OFSP institutions with overlapping mandates. This are directly or indirectly involved in the institutions have regional offices in most Kenyan varieties in Western Kenya and value addition limits the country’s ability to address the climate agricultural sector within the four counties. counties, and they work hand-in-hand with the through market linkages between farmers change related risks and hazards impacting These organizations include non-governmental counties to enhance agricultural development. and processors with the aim of enhancing the farmers livelihoods. organizations (NGOs), farmer-based organizations, community-based organizations, There are also several NGOs actively involved faith-based organizations, groups for youth and in the Kenyan agricultural sector within the women, and research institutions. However, four counties. These include GIZ, Technoserve, because agriculture is classified as a devolved Kenya Red Cross, Self Help Africa (SHA), and function in the Kenyan constitution, some others. GIZ carries out several programs in mandates still lie with the national government, the counties aimed at enhancing agricultural such as conducting research and formulating productivity, food security, employment, national agricultural and veterinary policies. gender equality, and sustainable economic These mandates are carried out by various development. In addition to the in-county organs of the national government, namely, GICs, GIZ is involved in enhancing the capacity MoALF; the Ministry of Water, Sanitation and of agricultural extension officers through Irrigation; the Ministry of Lands; the Kenya training; soil protection and rehabilitation; Meteorological Department (KMD); the Kenya and the promotion of climate-friendly cooking Forest Service (KFS); the Kenya Forest Research technologies, to name a few. Technoserve Institute (KEFRI); the National Environmental supports smallholder farmers by using mobile Management Authority (NEMA); the Kenya units to providing training on the use of Wildlife Service (KWS); the Kenya Agricultural and biodigesters, clean energy (solar panels), and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO); the entrepreneurial skills training. As part of the Kenya Dairy Board (KDB); and the Department Cassava Project in Kenya, SHA is enhancing ©P. Casier (CGIAR)
20 21 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
but observed that the intensity of rainfall had each have an average of 20-25 days (with some 5 . Climate Change-Related increased. Due to its different AEZ, floods were instances extending up to 50 days). The northern not a common phenomenon in the Nyandarua regions of both counties experience more CDD Risks and Vulnerabilities County. than the southern regions.
Key messages In Kakamega and Bungoma Counties, farmers Over the period of 1981-2015, the number noted increased temperatures as well as the of CDD has slightly increased for both the » All four counties are at risk of drought, moisture stress, and erratic rainfall due to number of hot days (Oloo et al., 2013; Barasa first and second season (Figure 4). Future climate change; Nyandarua is additionally susceptible to flash flooding. et al., 2015). Conversely, in Nyandarua County, climatic projections indicate that the number of where the climate is quite different, farmers consecutive dry days will increase in both the » These hazards will reduce productivity and endanger the welfare and livelihoods indicated that one of the recently noticeable first and second wet season. In Nyandarua, a of farmers, traders, wholesalers, and processors, ultimately leading to an increase climate change hazards was frostbite. Unlike the rise to 71 (1st season) and 85 (2nd season) days in prices for consumers. It is therefore necessary to introduce and enhance coping other three counties, floods were not a common is projected. In Siaya, 25 days in the first season strategies across the value chains. phenomenon in the County, explained by the and 36 days in the second season are projected. » Although sweet potatoes are susceptible to drought and flooding, the climate in topography of the County. In Bungoma and Kakamega counties, the Bungoma, Kakamega, and Siaya counties is already highly suitable for the crop and number of CDD is expected to rise to 26-35 days will remain so in the future. The changes negatively affect agricultural in both seasons, with the northern parts of both production and productivity. Additionally, they counties experiencing more dry days than the » Milk production is vulnerable to drought and extreme rainfall. Excessive rainfall resulted in food insecurity and deterioration southern regions. This is a clear indication that presents both risks and opportunities, since vegetation growth generally increases in farmers’ livelihood. This is of importance incidences of drought will increase in Nyandarua at the beginning of an excessive rainfall pattern, therefore increasing fodder and, by considering farmers’ main source of income is in both seasons and Siaya County in the second extension, milk production. agricultural production. season. In Bungoma and Kakamega counties, drought incidence will be common in both seasons, although in the north the risk is higher 5.2. Climate change and variability: in the second season than the first. historic and future trends dry spells, the drying of rivers, or reduction 5.1. Farmers’ perceptions on Historical and future projections of days in the amount of water in major rivers. Their The four counties share similar climatic climate change with moisture stress confirm an increasing perceptions are in line with climate modeling conditions with slight variations in the Stakeholders at different points in the sweet prevalence of drought in the future (Figures results that show an increase in the incidence amount of rainfall and mean temperatures. potato and dairy value chains have diverse 5). Across the four counties, the number of days of drought within all four counties. In all four As Siaya, Bungoma, and Kakamega counties are views and perceptions of climate change with moisture stress (NDWS) has been rising counties, an increase in the frequency of within the same region, they vary from each and its impact on agricultural productivity. A and is projected to moderately increase in both erratic rainfall is common (Njenga et al., 2014). other only minimally. Nyandarua County, in better understanding of these perception helps seasons, primarily in the second. However, in Additionally, the unpredictability of rainfall from Central Kenya, shows a more marked difference. to design inclusive policies that can enhance Kakamega county, moderate to high increases one season to another results in yield variations The Western counties are generally warm, with farmers’ resilience to climate change. Observed are projected, with the northern regions of from one season to the next. temperatures ranging between 25-32ºC (Siaya), changes negatively affect agricultural production 15-29ºC (Bungoma), and 18-30ºC (Kakamega). the county becoming drier than the rest. The and productivity. Additionally, they lead to number of days with a temperature equal to or Farmers in Siaya and Bungoma also indicated Nyandarua County is slightly cooler, with food insecurity and deterioration in farmers’ above 35 degrees will increase in the future in that flood has been a significant hazard, with temperatures ranging from 9-23ºC. In Nyandarua livelihoods. and Siaya counties, temperatures drop Bungoma, Siaya and Kakamega counties but it a perception that recent flooding occurrences will remain low in general (below 20 days) (Figure resulted in more devastation than in previous between June and July, while in Kakamega and In all four counties, farmers acknowledged 6). years (Wetende et al., 2018). Increased flood Bungoma counties this change occurs between that they had experienced climate change damage can partly be explained by increased December and February (Figure 3). In all four variabilities over the years, particularly in Historical trends indicate that the likelihood land degradation. In Bungoma County, floods counties, the first wet season (February-June) terms of rainfall variations. Farmers singled of flood is low to moderate within the four are mainly common in Bumula, Cheptais, and is wetter than the second (July-December). Dry out drought as the most common hazard counties. However, future projections indicate Bungoma East. In Kakamega and some parts spells occur between December and February. (Barasa et al., 2015; Wetende et al., 2018; Oloo flood risk in both seasons will rise in the future of Siaya, some farmers noted that flooding Nyandarua County experiences an average et al., 2013). However, farmers offered varying in Nyandarua, Bungoma, and Siaya counties, might not be frequent within their regions of 40-45 consecutive dry days (CDD), followed signs to express drought, including prolonged by Bungoma and Kakamega Counties, which and during the second season in Kakamega.
22 23 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
This projection is based on increasing numbers rate. Nyandarua County has high chances of Figure 5. Historical (left), future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the number of in the maximum 5-day running precipitation experiencing flash floods. moisture stress days for the first season (average of last 30 years) in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
Figure 3. Historical monthly mean temperature and rainfall precipitation (average of last 30 years) for Kakamega County. Bars represent total monthly precipitation, whereas lines represent maximum (blue line) and minimum (red line) monthly mean temperatures.
Figure 6. Historical (left), future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the number of days with a temperature above 35 °C for the first season (average of last 30 years) in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
Figure 4. Historical (left), future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the maximum number of consecutive dry days for the first season (average of last 30 years) in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
24 25 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
5.3. Crop suitability analysis Even though high suitability is predicted in Figure 8. Suitability change of sweet potato production in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, Counties, Sweet potatoes have high and stable the three counties, there a slight decrease Kenya suitability in Bungoma, Kakamega, and of suitability predicted in the north of Siaya Siaya counties (Figure 7). The crop suitability and south of Kakamega in the 2030 and 2050 analysis was based on the EcoCrop model, projections. In Nyandarua county, except for which considers precipitation and temperature the eastern and southeast regions, suitability is within a region (Ramirez-Villege et al., 2011). predicted to rise to between 0-40%, increasing Analysis indicates that sweet potato is highly the county’s production capacity. However, to suitable (80 to 100%) in Bungoma, Kakamega fully realized the benefits of increased crop and Siaya. Future climate projections show that suitability across the four counties some of the the northern and eastern parts of Bungoma existing challenges, such as low soil fertility, soil County are projected to become more suitable erosion, degradation, and suboptimal use of to sweet potato production in the future (Figure modern inputs, need to be solved. Solving these 8). Nyandarua county is currently unsuitable challenges would enable the regions to realize for sweet potato production; although this is their full production capability and reduce food projected to change in the future, it is likely to insecurity and poverty levels in the four counties. remain poorly suited (0-40%).
Figure 7. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability of sweet potato production in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, Counties, Kenya
5.4. Climate vulnerabilities across a lower risk than drought and flood. Drought agriculture value chain is becoming a regular occurrence in Kenya; commodities among the four counties, Siaya, Bungoma, and Kakamega are more susceptible than A survey of highly knowledgeable key Nyandarua. Drought has severe impacts at the informants9 was conducted to identify the two on-farm production stage, primarily in the form most frequent hazards affecting the prioritized of low production due to increased water and value chains. heat stress. Reduced production diminishes marketable volumes, resulting in increased 5.4.1. Sweet potato prices paid by the final consumers. Additionally, Drought is one of the main hazards affecting it causes the development of hard soil pans, the sweet potato value chain. Late onset which then constrain planting and harvesting. of rainfall was also named as detrimental to During harvesting, it increases the chances sweet potato production, although it presents of bruising the tubers, reducing their quality,
9 The response rate across the two value chains was; 16 and 7 key informants along the milk and sweet potato value chain, respectively. See the list of experts (Annex- Table)
26 27 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya shelf life, and price. It is a major risk at the reduces farmers’ revenue and profits. Reduced input stage because reduced yields and farmer milk production also negatively affects milk incomes mean insufficient resources to purchase processors who must then run their plants the necessary inputs and to finance on-farm under capacity. With these trickle-down effects, activities. Post-harvest, however, drought poses final consumers must purchase milk at a lower risks,10 and it is a moderate risk at the higher price. In terms of severity, drought has a marketing stage. moderate impact on the input, post-harvest, and marketing stage and a major impact on the on- Flooding also poses risks to sweet potato farm stage. production. Floods increase the incidence of landslides and soil erosion, with the On the other hand, heavy rainfall also affects consequence of reduced crop productivity, as all the actors along the value chain. It can sweet potatoes are intolerant to waterlogging. result in an abundance of feed and, in turn, As a result, flooding reduces the volume of increased productivity. However, a glut in milk marketable sweet potatoes, forcing traders and supply results in a reduction in milk prices, wholesalers to search for alternative sources. and most processors are unable to handle Under perfect market conditions, when supply the oversupply of milk due to their limited is low, prices are expected to be high. However, handling capacity, resulting wastage. During when volume is reduced because of poor these periods, the price of milk dips, resulting quality, farmers are still offered relatively low in losses incurred by farmers. However, the prices, and traders search for other, cheaper government has protected farmers during sources of sweet potato with the country or rainy seasons by setting price ceilings (the from neighboring countries. However, final minimum price that farmers can be offered) consumers are still offered high prices, with and encouraging processors to diversify their traders taking the largest share of profits. Floods activities, for example by processing excess milk also damage infrastructure, increasing the into powdered milk. Secondly, heavy rainfall cost of transportation and marketing. This is a can destroy infrastructure—particularly roads— particular risk for the four counties, because constraining the transportation of milk from most feeder-roads therein are untarmacked and farmers to processors. Furthermore, excessive unmaintained. The impacts of flooding are major rainfall can inhibit the growth of crops, reducing at the on-farm and post-harvest stages, but the survival rate of fodder crops and thus moderate at the input and marketing stages. the availability of feed. Lastly, excess rainfall also increases the incidences of vector-borne 5.4.2. Milk and viral diseases such as hoof-and-mouth Drought affects nearly all key actors along disease. In terms of severity, heavy rainfall has the milk value chain. In combination with a moderate impact on the input stage, a major other hazards such as high temperature, late impact at the on-farm and marketing stages, and onset of rains, and decreased general length of a severe impact on the post-harvest stage, due the rainy seasons, it results in water scarcity. to milk wastage in the event of overproduction Water scarcity in turn affects fodder production, and the resulting losses incurred by dairy reducing the quality and quantity of fodder farmers. and pasture available. As a result, livestock farmers must purchase commercial forage, feeds, and supplements that are relatively expensive. Moreover, scarcity and low quality of feed reduces milk production, which in turn
10 Severity in this case ranges from low, moderate, major to severe. ©FAO
28 29 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
Other practices that cut across the value (Table 1). Along the sweet potato value chain, 6 . Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability chains include soil and water conservation there is a need to create storage centers and techniques such as strip cropping, crop aggregation units for farmers and farmers’ rotation, water harvesting, and construction groups. The centers can be made solar Key messages of drainage channels. In flood-prone areas powered to reduce their cost and increase their such as Siaya and Bungoma counties, national processing potential. This is an area open to » Farmers’ current coping strategies include the adoption of new sweet potato and and local governments have been constructing innovation, as only 5% of sweet potatoes in fodder varieties, simple value addition activities, replanting after failed crops, and dikes, gabion walls, and water pans in an effort Kenya are currently processed. Farmers should diversifying income-generating activities. to control flooding and reduce its adverse be trained and encouraged to use plastic crates » The GICs promoting new varieties of sweet potato, value addition by making flour, effects. Some of these structures can only be to reduce bruising during transportation and solar irrigation, and strengthening market linkages. constructed with the help of the government improve shelf life. Along the milk value chain, » In the milk value chain, the GICs train farmers on commercial forage production, due to the initial capital outlay required. farmers can be trained on water harvesting the need for financial inclusion, zero-grazing, GAP, and other strategies. Farmers in all four counties practice small-scale techniques for fodder production and animal irrigation to reduce overdependence on rain-fed use. Lastly, expanding the processing capability » The best-ranked strategies to cushion farmers against the adverse effects of agriculture. All four counties have a provision in of Kenyan factories would help during events of climate change in the milk value chain are storage of hay and silage, the use of their budgets, defined in their County Integrated milk oversupply. Excess milk can be processed GAP, and commercial forage production; in the sweet potato value chain they are Development Plans (CIDP), for enhancing into powdered milk, cheese, ghee, butter, and the adoption of drought-resistant varieties, GAP, and early warning systems. irrigation. Some farmers have been utilizing drip yoghourt. Increased processing capacity can irrigation, which is more water-effective, but reduce Kenya’s reliance on imported dairy also more expensive, than traditional irrigation products from countries such as Uganda and techniques. increase the country’s ability to become a key Given current climatic hazards, most farmers bargaining power during the marketing stage. exporter of dairy products. have adopted several coping strategies Along the milk value chain, The GICs are training However, there are still adaptation practices either specific to the sweet potato and milk farmers on commercial forage production; the that have not been fully adopted by farmers value chains, or that cut across value chains. need for financial inclusion; low-cost biogas However, there are variations in adoption levels production; and the use of zero-grazing, GAP, due to socio-economic, environmental, and and pulverizers. Some elements of the training Table 1. Specific practices within each practice group relevant to the focus value chains institutional factors. For instance, given the are done with ICT (Digi Farm) and through difference in land tenure security, as indicated attending to the strengthening of existing dairy by ownership of title deeds, the uptake of cooperatives (Table 1). Sweet Potato Milk capital-intensive practices in the four counties is Practice Groups Value Chain Value Chain different. Farmers themselves have adopted other Grazing management • Zero grazing; coping strategies. Along the sweet potato value • Commercial forage production* chain, they are adopting the more profitable 6.1. On-farm adaptation strategies and more nutritious OFSP varieties over the Variety improvement • Drought-resistant varieties* • New fodder varieties local ones. Value addition remains a crucial * * The GIZ, through the GICs, has been Production best • Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) • Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) adaptation strategy as it both helps farmers practices implementing practices to enhance farmers’ fetch better prices and prolongs shelf life. It resilience and coping strategies. Along the Water management • Solar irrigation is also not uncommon for farmers to replant sweet potato value chain, they have been * their crops after initial crop failure. In all four Climate services • Early warning systems • Early warning systems training farmers on the use of GAP while also counties, farmers are diversifying their crops * promoting new, clean varieties and promoting Storage • Storage of hay and silage and supplementing farm incomes by engaging commercial vine multiplication; value addition, Marketing • Improved market linkages • Strengthened dairy cooperatives & in small business activities. Along the milk value such as making flour; and solar irrigation. They farmer groups chain, farmers have been adopting the planting are also creating market linkages between of new fodder varieties such as brachiaria and farmers, producers, and other value chain *Denotes that this is the highest-ranked adaptation strategy for its respective value chain. boma Rhodes. The use of quality fodder enhances actors. Farmers are encouraged to create animal health and production. Farmers have also producer and marketing groups to enhance their embraced the use of artificial insemination.
30 31 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
6.2. Overall ranking of the are good practices for enhancing the quality Table 2. Adaptation to Climate Change: Strategies Across Major Value Chain Commodities adaptation strategies and quantity of fodder given to animals. Quality fodder is essential in providing key nutrients to Promising adaptation strategies were dairy animals, which in turn results in enhanced ranked by value chain stakeholders using an milk production. iterative process. Following a survey with key POST- informants in the milk and sweet potato value input ON-FARM Harvest marketing Along the sweet potato value chain, adoption MILK chains, several promising adaptation strategies of drought-resistant sweet potato varieties were identified for the four stages of the value and the use of GAP were recognized as the Drought • Low quantity of • Scarcity of feed • Loss in milk • Supply declines chain. With this list compiled, each stakeholder feed • Susceptibility to • Increased costs • Increased costs for best practices for coping with drought; for ranked the two most promising adaptation • Poor quality of diseases • Insufficient cooling traders floods, the use of GAP and early warning feed • Low rate of fodder capacity • Processor strategies against each identified hazard. The systems would best help protect farmers. • Increased feed establishment • Reduced milk losses due to ranking was based on a scale of 1-8 where 1 is These practices were advocated for by costs • Low reproduction production underutilization highly ranked, and 8 is lowly ranked. stakeholders because their implementation Magnitude of MODERATE MAJOR MODERATE MODERATE requires low capital outlay, they are proven, Impact For the milk value chain, storage of hay and effective technologies, and they are easy to silage and the use of GAP were identified as • Commercial forage production adopt. The early warning system was highly Promising the best practices to protect farmers against adaptation • Introduction of AI services advocated for because it helps farmers decide drought; commercial forage production strategies • Introduction of new fodder varieties which crop varieties to plant as they plan their • Improved storage of hay and silage and GAP were identified to cushion farmers planting calendars. Additionally, it mentally • Use of good husbandry practices against extreme rainfall effects (Table 2).The • Strengthened dairy cooperatives prepares farmers for floods, their related risks, practices were highly recommended because and even the potential for evacuations. they were deemed to be cost-effective and they Extreme rainfall • Increased demand • Increase in • Poor roads inhibit • Glut in production for veterinary diseases access to storage leads to waste services • Increased milk facilities • Reduction in milk • Low access to production initially prices inputs drops off due poor • Losses for farmers • Transport feed and processors challenges
Magnitude of MODERATE MAJOR SEVERE MAJOR Impact
Promising • Zero grazing adaptation • Strengthening dairy cooperative and farmer groups strategies • Storage of hay and silage • Introduction of new fodder varieties • Use of good husbandry practices • Early warning information
Strategies to mitigate both hazards
Farmers’ coping • Use of local bulls for breeding strategies • Use of traditional medicine to treat animals • Water harvesting • Soil and water conservation.
On-going • Financial inclusion adaptation • Milk processing plants strategies • Milk coolers ©Dansira Dembélé/CCAFS
32 33 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
6.3. Cost benefit analysis of production of safe food and increases the the prioritized adaptation yield per hectare as compared with the BAU. In strategies addition, the use of drought resistance variety of sweet potatoes was prioritized because it The Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) tool has requires a little amount of water – resulting into POST- been widely used to help in the investment SWEET a steady supply of sweet potatoes for household input ON-FARM Harvest marketing decisions on Climate-Smart Agriculture consumption and income generation through POTATO (CSA) practices. This is because it allows for sales. Key experts reported that the life cycle Drought • Increase in labour • Increased water • Hardpans lead to • Reduced volume the comparison, in terms of costs, returns and costs and heat stress bruising during • Increased prices of drought-resistant sweet potato varieties and efficiency, of a recommended CSA practice with • Limited access to • Poor germination, harvest for consumers GAP was 10 years, with benefits, including an • Low quality means an existing one11 (Ng’ang’a et al., 2017). For this inputs establishment, and • Low quality increase in output and reductions in inputs, production and quantity of low farm-gate profile, a CBA was conducted for the highest labour, and service costs, realized in the first produce price for farmers ranked innovations. Three CBA indicators,12 Net • Loss of commercial due to low quality season after implementation. Within the sweet Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of processing potato value chain, sweet potato tubers and Return (IRR) and payback period were used to opportunities vines were identified as the main outputs from establish the relative profitability of improved Magnitude of which farmers can derive income. Impact MAJOR MAJOR low MODERATE varieties. The use of a good agricultural practice Promising The two highest ranked innovations for each • Use of good agricultural practices in sweet potatoes value chain requires adaptation • Solar irrigation value chain were analyzed13. For the sweet strategies 596%, 599% and 150% higher capital for • Use of drought-tolerant varieties potato value chain, the adoption of drought- installation, maintenance and operational resistant varieties and GAP were taken into respectively (Table 3) when compared with consideration. The use of good agricultural Floods • Lack of vines • Increased weeds • Aflatoxin and • Reduced volume BAU. A similar trend – but of much lower • Limited access to • Increased diseases fumonisins • Increased price for management practices was prioritized as it is one magnitude – is observed in the use of a drought- inputs • Land preparation contamination consumers of the most preferred crop and soil management • Low quality means resistant variety of sweet potatoes because it • Labour availability and weeding improvement practice among sweet potatoes decreased challenges low farm-gate requires 6% higher capital for installation and producers. The practices also result in the • High labour costs price for farmers maintenance as compared BAU (Table 3). High • Low germination rate Table 3. Summary Information on Installation, maintenance and operation costs for business as usual (BAU) and new innovations in sweet potato value chain in Kenya Magnitude of Impact MODERATE MAJOR MAJOR MODERATE
Promising • Use of good agricultural practices INNOVATION Installation Costs (US$/ha) Maintenance costs (US$/ha) Operation Cost (US$/ha) adaptation • Early warning systems BAU New % change BAU New % change BAU New % strategies • Improved market linkages improved improved improved change variety of variety of variety of VALUE CHAIN VALUE seeds seeds seeds Ongoing Adaptation Efforts Good Agricultural 244 1,526 546% 1,826 12,759 599% 1,887 4,717 150 Farmers’ coping • Diversifying production, crop rotation Practice strategies • Replanting after an initial crop failure • Reliance of informal sweet potato vines during planting Drought Resistant seed 27,722 29,342 6% 225,068 237,834 6% 0 0 n/a
• Sale of roots at the farm gate SWEET POTATO variety • Simple value addition • Soil and water conservation
On-going • Value addition adaptation • Low-cost biogas production 11 Existing practices are referred to as Business as Usual (BAU). Most farmers in the developing world already have conventional practices strategies • Use of pulverizers that help them cope with climate change variabilities. Some of them have been effective while others have had no impact on climate • Constructing ss, gabion walls, and water pans, and irrigation systems change, hence the importance of the comparison. 12 The NPV measures the incremental flow of net benefits from the innovation over its lifecycle, while the IRR is the discount rate that equates NPV to 0. A higher IRR indicates a high profitability potential. 13 Due to data limitation, CBA was not conducted for the milk value chain.
34 35 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
Figure 9. Yield for business as usual (BAU) versus the two innovations (good agricultural management innovations was one year. These three measures likelihood for NPV being less than or equal to practice and improved drought resistant variety of tubers) in sweet potatoes value chain in Kenya. of profitability indicate that these innovations the costs of adopting each innovation (e.g., are very profitable and should be endorsed for installation, maintenance and operation costs). adoption by farmers. Additionally, both carry a The use of good agricultural management 60,000.00 low probability of making losses, making them practices is a low risk investment because the good investments for farmers. likelihood of losing invested capital is negligible 50,000.00 (i.e. 3%), while the use of drought resistant 40,000.00 The profitability risk associated with these variety off tuber is a moderate risk investment two innovations were modelled using Monte because the likelihood of losing invested 30,000.00 Carlo simulations (n=10,000). The probability capital is about 23%. These two innovations distribution of the NPVs for the two innovations are profitable, have a low to moderate risk and 20,000.00 is summarized in Column 6 in Table 4. The should therefore be advocated for adoption to Yield (kg/ha) 10,000.00 results show that the profitability related risks smallholder farmers in Kenya, and especially so, associated with implementing each of the for the use of good agricultural practice in the 0.00 Business as ususal Use of good Business as usual Use of drought resistant two innovation given the characteristic of the production of sweet potatoes. (Sweet potato) agricultural practice (Sweet potato) tubers in sweet potato cumulative density function of expressing the in sweet potato production production
Table 4. Cost and Benefit Results for Sweet Potato Value Chain in Kenya.
Value chain Innovation Profitability indicators NPV in IRR in Payback period Riskiness of investment US$ (%) (years)
This practice has a negligible (3% Good Agricultural 28,043 328 (>r) 1 probability) of making unprofitable Sweet Practices Potato returns This practice has a relatively Drought-Resistant 28,746 332(>r) 1 high (23%) probability of making Varieties unprofitable returns
NB: >r implies that the practice is privately profitable implementation and operation costs associated is higher by a margin of 126% and 200% with these innovations, particularly the use of respectively (Figure 9). good agricultural practices, may act as potential barriers for adoption among smallholder The estimates of NPV, IRR, and payback for farmers. The main benefit associated with these innovations are shown in Table 4. The these two innovations is not, therefore, due to NPV associated with adopting and growing reduction in either installation, maintenance drought-resistant varieties of sweet potato and or operation costs, but rather due to the GAP in sweet potato production is $28,746 USD improvement in yields. Compared to BAU, the and $28,043 USD per hectare, respectively. The yield arising from the using a good agricultural IRRs for these innovations are high, above the management practice and new improved discount rate of farmers (10%) at 332% and
drought-resistant variety of sweet potatoes 328%, respectively. The payback period for both ©FAO/Ami Vitale
36 37 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya 7 . Synthesis and Recommendations
Historical data and future climate projections of the NPV indicator is considered, despite the Going forward, a variety of opportunities technical, financial, and human resource capacity indicate drought, floods, and the intensity of high implementation and maintenance costs, for collaboration, funding, and synergies to successfully implement projects that can rains have and will affect crop and livestock the risks for returning unprofitable return exist for these practices (Table 5). Several enhance farmers’ resilience against the effects of production in Nyandarua, Siaya, Kakamega, associated with these two innovations range federal policies offer general support for climate change. At the local level, governments and Bungoma counties. Climate change from low to moderate demonstrating that there climate-smart initiatives, including the Climate- would benefit from guidelines and an overall hazards—coupled with low use and high cost is an economic case that justifies their scaling Smart Agriculture Strategy, Agricultural Sector implementation framework of programs of inputs, sub-optimal use of inputs, poor road up. This implies that the use of good agricultural Development Strategy, Agricultural Sector designed at the county and national levels. Poor connectivity, and information asymmetry—result management practice in potatoes production Development Support Programme, and the infrastructure, lack of storage facilities, difficulty in low agricultural production. This puts farmers and the use of drought resistant variety of potato County Integrated Development Plan. For of procuring clean seeds and vines, land at risk since they are among the most vulnerable tubers are promising and profitable adaptation example, Kenya’s Climate-Smart Agriculture insecurity, price fluctuations, and uncontrolled groups in Kenya. strategies that could help farmers deal with Strategy offers support for climate services, packing standards make profit margins difficult climate change-related effects such as drought genetic improvement, variety improvement, to attain from climate-smart technologies. Farmers are making efforts to enhance and high temperature. These two innovations, production best practices, water management, Access to financial services exacerbate these their resilience by adopting climate-smart therefore, constitutes some promising options climate services, crop tolerance to stress, and failures. Cultural norms that restrict women, who practices. Such practices include the use that are of interest to GIC in that they have the improved storage. Several federal institutions comprise the majority of farmers, are a major of improved seeds and varieties, the use of potential of producing desirable outcomes for manage the agriculture sector and support hindrance in scaling climate-smart adaptation. good agricultural and husbandry practices, a majority of smallholder farmers in Kenya. To climate change adaptation and mitigation in investment in irrigation, simple value addition, achieve these desirable outcomes, however, general, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, fodder production and conservation, the use of mechanisms for upscaling the adoption of these Livestock, and Fisheries, the Ministry of Water, zero grazing, and soil and water conservation. innovations (such as availing technical capacity Sanitation, and Irrigation, the Ministry of However, farmers still lag in the adoption of and the drought tolerant tubers) and provision Lands, Kenya Meteorological Department, the capital-intensive but high-return adaptation of financial support needed to implement these Kenya Forest Service, National Environmental strategies due to high poverty rates and insecure innovations should be provided. Management Authority, the Kenya Wildlife land tenure. Service, the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock These strategies can be useful in helping Research Organization, the Kenya Dairy CBA is a very important tool for evaluating enhances farmers’ food security status, Board, and the Department of Cooperatives investments that require a decision to be income, and wellbeing. However, for these to and Marketing. The Kenyan Government is made (i.e., whether to proceed with the work, county-level governments must become collaborating with several international institutes investment or not). Despite the strength involved to provide basic services and improve on climate-focused programmes, including and limitation associated with the CBA existing infrastructure. This entails improving the International Livestock Research Institute, methodology (i.e. potential inaccuracies during the capacity of extension workers and veterinary Technoserve, the International Center for the identification and quantification of costs providers and investing in improving access to Tropical Agriculture, the International Potato and benefits and hence NPV), CBA is critical for water, electricity, and road networks. However, Center, and the German Agency for International future planning of strategic investment. The two county governments cannot achieve these goals Cooperation. innovations considered in this profile report alone and must work hand-in-hand with the are ‘no-regret options’, implying that they will national government, NGOs, research institutes, Further, several barriers challenge the yield economic benefits now and, in the future, and private organizations. Cooperation and general implementation of climate-aware and are therefore important for strengthening coordination will strengthen collaborative policy in Kenya. Some institutions implement future household resilience. The two innovations work and institutional capacity by reducing the projects in isolation, leading to duplication studied are profitable, have a high IRR and a duplication of programs and allowing for the of projects and resource inefficiency. There short payback period, and these could be the cost-effective implementation and monitoring of are significant opportunities for improving reasons why these innovations emerged as programs and projects. coordination and cooperation among a strong priority for stakeholders during the government, international, and private prioritization process. When the distribution institutions. Other organizations need additional
38 39 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
Table 5. Practice-group specific potential strategies and considerations for advancing CSA at scale
Existing and Existing and potential potential Practice Practice Group Partnerships Barriers funding Synergies Practice Group Partnerships Barriers funding Synergies ** • The National Root Farm level barriers: • International • Climate-resilient • Kenya Climate- Farm level barriers: • Public and private • Effective water and Tubers Crop • Lack of capital research breeds help Smart Agriculture • Land tenure insecurity; interests with management Development funding offers stabilize yields, Strategy • Lack of capital good blended reduces erosion Strategy (2019- Institutional barriers:** robust support; thus supporting (2017-2026); finance potential and flooding 2022) • Inadequate access to diversification stable markets Agricultural Sector Institutional barriers:** to support
• Kenya Climate- inputs toward local Water Transformation and • Lack of access to productivity and Smart Agriculture • Low access to finance and culturally Growth Strategy training and technology land restoration Strategy (2017- • Knowledge gaps important crops management (2019-2029) • Considerable capital efforts 2026) • Lack of research and needed required development and • County Integrated • Kenya Climate- Farm level barriers: • Public and private • Supports Variety improvement distribution networks Development Plan Smart Agriculture • Lack of capital interests with efficiency and Strategy (2017- good blended planning in • Kenya Climate- Farm level barriers: • Good potential • Supports 2026) ** finance potential input provision, Smart Agriculture • Limited land size for green blended climate- Institutional barriers: • Low access to production, Strategy (2017- precludes forage finance, using resiliency and information and postharvest 2026) production public funds yields, thus extension services transport and • Livestock Research • Land tenure insecurity as a de-risking improving processing, and
Institute instrument, market stability Climate services marketing Institutional barriers: delivered through • Lack of extension cooperatives • Kenya Climate- Farm level barriers: • High potential • Reduces losses, services to support Smart Agriculture • Land tenure insecurity, for private sector thus increasing farmer-initiated Strategy (2017- • Lack of capital investing profits and investments in 2026) supporting Grazing management long-term land Institutional barriers:** markets stability, productivity • Lack of infrastructure, particularly including inadequate inter-seasonally • Kenya Climate- Farm level barriers: • Good potential • Supports
Storage access to good Smart Agriculture • Land tenure insecurity; for green blended climate- roads, cold storage, Strategy (2017- • Lack of capital finance, using resiliency and warehouses, and 2026) public funds yields, thus other conservation Institutional barriers:** as a de-risking improving technologies • Inconsistent extension instrument, market stability services delivered through • The National Root Farm level barriers: • Reliable storage • Weak finance services cooperatives and Tubers Crop • Low market access and processing to support Development systems support farmer-initiated Strategy (2019- Institutional barriers: market stability investments in 2022) • Poor transport and consumer long-term land • Self Help Africa infrastructure confidence Production best practices
productivity Marketing • International Potato • Dearth of contract- Center based purchasing
** based on literature
40 41 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya 8 . Works Cited
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42 43 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya 9 . AcknowledgmentS
This study was conducted by the Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), supported by the Green Innovation Centres for the Agriculture and Food Sector (GIC) implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) under the framework of the special initiative “ONE WORLD – No Hunger” on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
The document has been developed by George Kanyenji under the technical leadership of Stephanie Jaquet, Caroline Mwongera, Stanley Karanja and Evan Girvetz and with contributions from [co-authors if any, reviewers], the climate modelling team: Harold A.E. Achicanoy, Alejandra Esquivel, Aniruddha Ghosh, Julian Ramirez-Villegas and the agricultural economics team: Devinia Akinyi, Dorcas Jalango, Bwema Ombati.
We acknowledge the contribution of the project manager for GIZ: Bjoern Hecht, Heike Herden and of the GIC team in Kenya: Arianne Riemann, Lucas Zahl, Sophie Grunze
Technical review and editing: Annalese Duprey, Stephanie Pentz, Mehrey Vaghti, and Megan Mayzelle
Infographics and layout: Katya Kuzi
This document should be cited as: Bioversity International & CIAT, CGIAR CCAFS, and GIZ. 2020. Adapting Green Innovation Centres to Climate Change: Analysis of value chain adaptation potential. Milk and Sweet Potato Value Chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Counties, Kenya ©CIAT/NeilPalmer
44 45 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
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