Statistics from Maidan Protest Events: Participants, Geography, Violence

Statistics from Maidan protest events: participants, geography, violence

Prepared by the Centre for Society Research Supported by the International Renaissance Foundation and the National Endowment for Democracy Summary

This report is the first attempt to analyze Maidan based on the results of systematic research on protests, repressions and concessions of protesters in Ukraine . Since the end of 2009 the Centre for Society Research has been creating a unique database of all protest events taking place on the territory of Ukraine based on the monitoring of almost 200 national, regional and activist web- media sources. The database now allows us to answer some topical questions about the most important event in the recent history of Ukraine, which are still the subject of numerous political speculations. In particular, who exactly participated the most in Maidan protests? What was the real role of the far right in Maidan (the Svoboda party and the Right Sector)? Was Maidan really a nation-wide rebellion? What was the contribution of Maidans outside of Kyiv, in the West and in the East of the country? What was the impact of the violent struggle on Maidan’s victory?

2 THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF PROTESTS AT MAIDAN

3 The number of protests monthly October 2009 – February 2014 (until 23.02)

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

All protests Confrontation and violence 4 The reported number of protestors at Maidan by stages

Number of 2013 (until I stage (21.11- II stage (30.11- III stage (19.01- IV stage (18.02- protestors 20.11) 29.11) 18.01) 17.02) 23.02)

<10 389 11% 34 9% 122 9% 112 9% 84 9%

<100 1 560 46% 88 24% 465 35% 376 29% 135 14%

<1000 520 15% 87 24% 255 19% 276 21% 236 24%

<10000 103 3% 27 7% 91 7% 113 9% 102 11%

<100000 15 0% 5 1% 9 1% 4 0% 11 1%

>100000 - 0% 2 1% 3 0% - 0% - 0%

Unknown 841 25% 123 34% 374 28% 417 32% 399 41%

TOTAL 3 428 100% 366 100% 1 319 100% 1 298 100% 967 100%

5 THE MOST NOTABLE PARTICIPANTS OF MAIDAN

6 Participation of the most notable actors in the Maidan protests (share from the number of events)

18% Svoboda 17% 13% Batkivshchyna (Tymoshenko) 9% 10% UDAR (Klychko) 5% 6% Right Sector 0% 6% Automaidan 0% 5% Unidentified and local politicians 4% 4% Maidan Self-Defense 0% 3% Democratic Alliance (Christian Democrats) 1% 2% Unspecified opposition parties 0% 1% Radical Party (Lyashko) 0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Maidan Protests 2013 (before 20.11) 7 Participation of the main categories of Maidan actors in the protests (share from the number of events)

35% Parties, politicians, local authorities 35%

25% Far right 20%

13%

Civic organizations 22%

1% Trade unions 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Maidan Protests 2013 (before 20.11) 8 Participation in violent events at Maidan

Right Sector 16%

Svoboda 10%

Maidan Self-Defense 7%

UDAR (Klychko) 3%

Batkivshchyna (Tymoshenko) 2%

Automaidan 2%

Unspecified opposition parties 1%

Unidentified and local politicians 1%

Democratic Alliance (Christian Democrats) 1%

Radical Party (Lyashko) 0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

9 Participation in violent events at Maidan (continued)

Far right 26%

Civic organizations 18%

Parties, politicians, local authorities 15%

Trade unions 0%

10 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Participation in protests during different phases of Maidan (share from the number of events) 25%

Radical Party (Lyashko)

20% Unspecified opposition parties

Democratic Alliance (Christian Democrats) 15% Batkivshchyna (Tymoshenko)

Unidentified and local politicians 10% UDAR (Klychko)

Automaidan 5% Svoboda

Maidan Self-Defense 0% I stage (21.11- II stage (30.11- III stage (19.01- IV stage (18.02- 29.11) 18.01) 17.02) 23.02) 11 Participation in protests during different phases of Maidan (continued)

40%

35%

30%

25% Parties, politicians, local authorities Trade unions 20%

Civic organizations 15% Far right 10%

0% I stage (21.11- II stage (30.11- III stage (19.01- IV stage (18.02- 29.11) 18.01) 17.02) 23.02) 12 GEOGRAPHY OF MAIDAN

13 Top-25 local Maidans (number of protest events in each city)

Kyiv Lviv Rivne Lutsk Ivano-Frankivsk Ternopil Odesa Vinnytsia Uzhgorod Cherkasy Chernivtsi Poltava Sumy Dnipropetrovsk Kharkiv Zaporizhya Khmelnytskyi Zhytomyr Mykolaiv Chernihiv Kherson Kirovohrad Luhansk Donetsk Kalush 14 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Protests at Kyiv Maidan daily 30

01.12.2013 25 18.02.2014

04.12.2013 10 19.01.2014

11.12.2013 5

Kyiv Maidan Confrontation or violence 15 Number of protests during Maidan daily 300 19.02.2014

250

200

150

02.12.2013 24.01.2014 100

11.12.2013 50 19.01.2014 29.11.2013 0

16 All protests All Maidan protests Kyiv Maidan Number of protests at Maidan by region

29% 21% 19% Center 38% Crimea Protests2013 5% Donbass (before20.11) East 10% Kyiv 18% 1% South 3% West 10% 17% 8% 8% 13% Maidan

17 The size of Maidan protests by region

Kyiv West Centre East South Donbass Crimea

<10 47 11% 84 7% 59 6% 26 10% 32 13% 18 17% 3 8%

10 – 100 110 25% 260 21% 228 25% 90 34% 83 34% 44 40% 17 43%

100 – 1000 89 21% 245 20% 243 26% 64 24% 51 21% 27 25% 7 18%

1000 – 10000 47 11% 122 10% 74 8% 36 14% 11 5% 0 0% 2 5%

More than 10000 11 3% 9 1% 1 0% 2 1% 0 0% 1 1% 1 3%

Unknown 129 30% 498 41% 313 34% 47 18% 66 27% 19 17% 10 25%

TOTAL 433 100% 1218 100% 918 100% 265 100% 243 100% 109 100% 40 100%

18 The participation of parties/politicians and far right in regional Maidans

60%

50%

40%

30% Parties, politicians, local authorities Far right 20%

10%

19 VIOLENCE AND REPRESSIONS

20 Tactics of protests before Maidan and at Maidan

12% 8%

19% Protests 2013 Conventional (before 20.11) 24% Confrontational Violent

73% 64% Maidan

21 Tactics of protests at regional Maidans (number of events)

900

800

700

600

500 Conventional Confrontational 400 Violent

300

200

100

0 Kyiv Center West East Donbass South Crimea 22 The radicalism of Maidans by region (number of events)

Kyiv city and Kyivska 239 Lvivska 116 Ivano -Frankivska 81 Rivnenska 78 Ternopilska 65 Cherkaska 60 Volynska 55 Poltavska 51 Vinnytska 48 Zakarpatska 47 Khmelnytska 37 Odeska 36 Zhytomyrska 33 Sumska 32 Chernivetska 31 Chernihivska 25 Zaporizka 24 Dnipropetrovska 24 Kirovohradska 17 Mykolaivska 14 Luhanska 13 Kharkivska 8 Khersonska 8 Crimea and Sevastopol city 8 Donetska 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Conventional Confrontation and violence 23 Agents of repressions against Maidans

Other Courts 6% 13%

Thugs ( titushkas ) 24%

Law- enforcement 57%

24 The dynamics of repressions against Maidan weekly 900 50

800 45

700 40 35 600 30 500 25 400 20 300 15

200 10

100 5

0 0

25 protests repressions repressions by 100 protests Specific repression types by Maidan stages (number of events and average share) 80 20%

70 18% 16% 60 14% 50 12% 40 10%

30 8% 6% 20 4% 10 2% 0 0%

I stage (21.11-29.11) II stage (30.11-18.01) III stage (19.01-17.02) IV stage (18.02-23.02) average share of repression type 26 METHODOLOGY AND EVENTS TYPOLOGY

27 Coding methodology

Monitoring sources In addition to the protests the following types of events are included to the database: Since 2013 the Center for Society Research team has been coding protests, repressions and concessions based on the • Positive reactions to the events (concessions) – practical monitoring of daily news from more than 190 national, actions aimed to fully or partially satisfy the demands of regional and activist websites. The full description of the the protestors. Promises to satisfy the demands are not project methodology, coding scheme and the list of included, but official orders, decrees, commands aimed monitoring sources is available on the Centre for Society to satisfy protestor’s demands, regardless of whether they were eventually completed or not are included. Research website, as well as the databases of coded events • Negative reactions to the protests (repressions) – and full-text reports are published there: practical actions aimed to prevent or to suppress protest http://www.cedos.org.ua/protests . actions, pressure on the protestors, both physical and legal, by the state or non-government organizations- objects of a protest. General principles of coding • Other repressions (systematic coding started from July The basic unit of coding – protest event – is defined by the 28, 2014) – practical actions of the government or following criteria: private companies aimed to prevent or suppress critical or opposing sociopolitical activity which does not fit the 1) the presence of political or social demands or criticism; definition of the protest event. 2) it should be an action (i.e. it is not purely verbal) of public character; Every event is coded separately, even if it is connected to the previous one except for some extremely similar typical 3) it is made by a group of people or one person that are not sequences of events. Only those events are coded which have part of the central government; already happened according to mass media reports. However, 4) the settlement on the territory of Ukraine where the event unsuccessful attempts of protest events which were prevented by law-enforcement bodies are coded. The protest activities took place and at least the approximate date of the which were canceled by protestors because of a court order event (up to a month) are known. are not included into the database. A multi-day event is considered to be a single event regardless of its duration.

28 Events typology

The regions of Ukraine are defined as follows : Data on the most notable Maidan participants shows the Center : Zhytomyrska, Kyivska, Chernihivska, Sumska, number of protests supporting Maidan in which their Vinnytska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska, Poltavska oblasts; participation was reported by mass media. Please note that Crimea : Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of this is precisely reported participation; very often protest Sevastopol; participants were described in a very general way, e.g. ‘Euromaidan activists’. These data should be treated as a Donbass: Donetska, Luhanska; picture of the ‘minimum level’ of participation in the protests East : Kharkivska,, Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizka oblasts; as well as how noticeable this participation was for the mass- Kyiv : the city of Kyiv; media. South : Odeska, Mykolaivska, Khersonska oblasts; West : Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ternopilska, Ivano- It is also important to note that these data are precisely about Frankivska, Chernivetska, Zakarpatska. protest participation. Humanitarian initiatives which were not oriented to protest activity, like Euromaidan-SOS or Hospital By the tactics we divide protests into three categories: Guards expectedly were not included in the data on protest events. conventional – well-known and commonly accepted forms of protest that do not impose direct pressure on the protest targets, such as pickets, rallies, demonstrations, performances, etc.; confrontational - protest actions involving direct pressure on the goals of a protest (‘direct action’) but not yet causing any direct damage for people or property, such as blocking roads, strikes, hunger strikes, etc.; violent – protest actions with causing (or threat of causing) of direct damage to people or property, such as beating or vandalism. 29 .

Our contact information

http://cedos.org.ua/protests [email protected]