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China's Strategy Toward South and Central Asia

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China's Strategy Toward South and Central Asia CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Research Report China’s Strategy Toward South and Central Asia An Empty Fortress Andrew Scobell, Ely Ratner, Michael Beckley C O R P O R A T I O N Research Report China’s Strategy Toward South and Central Asia An Empty Fortress Andrew Scobell, Ely Ratner, Michael Beckley RAND Project AIR FORCE Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR525 Library of Congress Control Number: 2014945628 ISBN: 978-0-8330-8542-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Using a wide array of primary and secondary source materials, RAND Project AIR FORCE analyzed the drivers of China’s policy toward Central Asia as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan, ascertained the full range and extent of Chinese activities in these areas, and then carefully assessed the implications of these findings for the United States. This report was part of a larger project that explored the range of possible future demands on and requirements for the U.S. Air Force. The goal of the project was to analyze regional and global challenges, assess the implications of this analysis for U.S. national security, and make recommendations for U.S. Air Force posture. The research was commissioned by the Director of Operational Planning, Policy and Strategy, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations, Plans and Requirements, Headquarters United States Air Force (HQ USAF/A5X); and the Director of Strategic Planning, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, Strategic Plans and Programs, Headquarters United States Air Force (HQ USAF/A8X). The analysis was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2011 study “What Is Driving China’s Central Asia Policy and Should That Impact USAF Force Posture?” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Figures .......................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. ix Summary ......................................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. xvii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Outline ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 2. What Is Driving China’s Central Asia Policy? ............................................................................ 5 Central Asia and Western China ............................................................................................................... 6 The Foreign-Domestic Nexus ................................................................................................................... 7 Ensuring Domestic Stability and Protecting National Unity ................................................................ 9 Maintaining Peace, Predictability, and Secularism in Central Asia ................................................... 18 Increasing Chinese Influence and Limiting That of Other Powers ..................................................... 19 Promoting China’s Economic Interests .............................................................................................. 24 3. China’s Central Asia Strategy ................................................................................................... 27 Chinese Diplomacy in Central Asia: Much Style, Limited Substance ................................................... 28 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization ............................................................................................ 29 Key Areas of SCO Interest ...................................................................................................................... 35 Security Cooperation: Big Show, Modest Results .............................................................................. 36 China’s Growing Economic Role ....................................................................................................... 42 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Afghanistan: Rhetoric Without Action ....................... 46 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 48 4. China in Afghanistan and Pakistan ............................................................................................ 51 Afghanistan ............................................................................................................................................. 52 What Is Driving China’s Afghan Policy? ........................................................................................... 53 China’s Activities in Afghanistan ....................................................................................................... 55 China’s Limited Role in Afghanistan ................................................................................................. 59 Pakistan ..................................................................................................................................................
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