Monday September 21, 2015 Shorten's days numbered

Sept. 16, 2015, 7:38 p.m. 's leadership of the Labor Party is virtually doomed.

The Coalition did the last thing Mr Shorten and Labor needed when it voted to replace unpopular prime minister with .

Mr Abbott's long-running unpopularity had helped an uninspiring Mr Shorten to be competitive.

With the Abbott factor gone, new polling clearly shows what Australians think of Mr Shorten.

Sean Ford The Morgan Poll showed 70 per cent of Australians rated Mr Turnbull as a "better prime minister" than Mr Shorten.

Mr Shorten got just 24 per cent.

The numbers were nearly as bad for Labor in Tasmania, with Mr Turnbull on 65 per cent and Mr Shorten on 34 per cent.

Excruciatingly for Labor, even Labor supporters nationally preferred Mr Turnbull (50 per cent to 44 per cent).

It should be said the Turnbull support is very much most likely to deflate to some extent over time.

But, honeymoons aside, it is a very big gap.

Also, it is possible for a leader to be significantly more popular (or unpopular) than the parties they lead.

However, Mr Shorten's leadership is on death row unless one of two things happens.

One of those is if Mr Turnbull performs terribly and/or the Coalition cannot display unity.

Mr Turnbull was not exactly a winner in his time as leader, while there is plenty of anger in the Coalition at the demise of Mr Abbott.

So there is hope for Labor on that front.

The other best hope for Mr Shorten is that Labor support stays at low enough levels to convince the viable alternative leaders not to challenge and destroy their prime ministerial hopes by being thumped at an election. (Meaning , and .)

If Labor falls well behind and stays there from some time, the pressure for leadership change will be immense.

As the past Labor government and the current Coalition one have shown, fear of losing seats is an enormous motivating factor for many MPs.

Call it treachery or call it going for better government, as you will.

But the fact is, large numbers of MPs will stick the knives in if they think it will save them.

That is not to say leadership change is always wrong.

Julia Gillard did the right thing by the country and Labor by knifing and Mr Turnbull could make a similar case for deposing Mr Abbott, who appeared increasingly certain to be a one-termer amid reform gridlock.

Failing major Coalition stuff-ups, Mr Shorten will be lucky to see out the summer.

Like Mr Abbott, he has lifted his game slightly in recent times.

Like Mr Abbott, it is not likely to be enough.