6 The German Times – Politics October 2019

The Kremlin at dusk Putin’s popularity is waning

Along with taking to the streets against the building of churches on six million Russians were eligible processes and prevents any real originated from the security ser- BY GEMMA PÖRZGEN in protest, millions of outraged green spaces have become more to cast ballots – almost half of involvement by its own citizens. vices and the military, is growing Russians expressed their anger at frequent in various Russian cities, all voting-age citizens. Elections Many prefer to stay home at elec- in Moscow. They could set Russia t’s still too early to bid fare- the new regulation in online and including Nizhniy Novgorod, were also held on the Crimean tion time; as far as they’re con- on an even more authoritarian well to the era of Russian paper petitions so that their presi- Krasnoyarsk and Chelyabinsk. Peninsula, which was annexed in cerned, there’s nothing to vote for course in coming years, which IPresident Vladimir Putin. Yet dent was obliged to address the This unrest increased in the 2014 and under international law anyway. would be sure to exacerbate the there are increasing signs that his people directly, explaining that run-up to the regional elections belongs to . No one can say whether Putin situation. They are an unpredict- power is weakening. The next there was no alternative to his on Sept. 8, 2019; and the Kremlin Navalny’s plan of recommend- will one day be replaced peacefully able force, not least because they presidential elections are in 2024, reforms, because there are already has grown increasingly nervous. A ing his followers to vote tactically through either elections or retire- are frequently in conflict with but they appear to be already too few workers and too many decision not to allow prominent in the regional elections seems to ment. At the end of President each other and this conflict often casting a long shadow. A power pensioners. opposition politicians to partici- have worked. His recommenda- Boris Yeltsin’s time in office, Putin results in violence. struggle for the country’s future In addition to these internal seems to be breaking out and its rifts, the ongoing war in Eastern outcome is entirely uncertain. Ukraine and the annexation of Although Putin succeeded in Crimea have shown that Krem-

achieving high approval ratings PICTURE ALLIANCE / AA lin leaders won’t shrink from an after annexing Crimea in 2014, aggressive expansionist foreign Russian pollsters have long been policy to secure their own domes- noticing a very different trend. tic power base. Annexing Crimea A lack of economic growth and made Putin very popular in 2014. falling wages have caused Putin’s According to polling data from the popularity to decline, says Lev Levada Center, his approval rat- Gudkov, director of the Levada ings peaked at 89 percent in June Center, an independent public 2015. This figure was still sustain- opinion research institute. ing Putin through the 2018 presi- The president had promised to dential elections. reduce the Russian economy’s Russia experts fear that Putin dependence on raw materials such could use a similar scenario in as gas and oil, but this reliance is neighboring Belarus. The former now as great as it ever was. In addi- Green party member and for- tion, emerging innovative sectors, eign affairs committee member such as Russia’s groundbreaking Marieluise Beck and her hus- IT industry, are in danger of falling band, Green politician Ralf Fücks, victim to the country’s authoritar- expressed this concern recently in ian power elite’s mania for regula- a widely read article in the Frank- tion. Despotic bureaucrats are also furter Allgemeine Zeitung. making the lives of entrepreneurs “The country has become the running medium-sized companies newest arena for Russia’s global unnecessarily difficult. power ambitions,” warn Beck and Activist Alexei Navalny seems Fücks. Largely unnoticed by the to have struck a chord with many West, Putin is increasing pressure of his fellow citizens through on Belarus, trying to force it into a his highly politicized YouTube union of states, they argue. “That videos, in which he denounces the Uprising: Police officers take a protester into custody in Moscow in August 2019. would mean the end of Belarusian widespread corruption of those Raising the retirement age trig- pate in the elections resulted in tion was that they give their votes succeeded in protecting his prede- independence and would radi- in power. Internet images of the gered so much outrage among countless further protests in to those opposition politicians cessor and his family from crimi- cally change the strategic situa- mansions and yachts of leading people all over the country Moscow and other Russian cities. most likely to win against United nal prosecution and in seizing tion in Central Eastern Europe.” politicians, such as those of Prime because the reforms mean that Around 50,000 people took Russia candidates. control of compromising mate- For Putin, a union of states with Minister Dmitry Medvedev, have very few men will ever actually to the capital’s streets to protest Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin rial, which allowed for a peace- Belarus might comfortably pave reached a large audience, rein- reach retirement age, even though almost every weekend throughout declared himself satisfied, writing ful transition of power. Whether the way to another term as presi- forcing the people’s fundamental life expectancy is increasing. In July and August. on his website, “In the end, it was a Putin can be peacefully replaced in dent, they note. mistrust of their rulers. Many in Russia, roughly half of all men live Shocking pictures of police vio- real political competition and one a similar way and how that might Other observers may find such the Russian population have long into their 65th year; the equivalent lence against peaceful demonstra- of the most emotional elections in happen is entirely unclear. scenarios far-fetched, but recent had the feeling that their society’s figure for Germany is 85 percent. tors were broadcast all over the all of recent history.” The direction the country will history has shown that they fall wealth is unfairly distributed and The result was repeated pro- world, images of armed members For the Kremlin, the regional take in coming years is equally as within the realm of possibility for that the power elite has been fleec- tests across the country. A range of the security forces beating and election results do not justify uncertain. There are occasional the near future. ing the people. of different topics has since caused arresting large numbers of young much optimism regarding the moments of hope, such as the sur- The next few years will reveal One major turning point has more occasional protests to flare people. These images spread Duma elections in 2021. Despite prising June release from prison the direction Russia takes in the been the pension reform the up at the local and regional levels. quickly over the internet, which state propaganda in the media, the of investigative journalist Ivan dying days of the Putin era. But Duma passed in 2018, which is Many Russians are unhappy and succeeded in increasing solidar- pressure on companies to force Golunov. The exchange of prison- one thing is now certain: Not even deeply unpopular and has caused are venting their rage at their ity among many Muscovites and their employees to vote and the ers with Ukraine is also creating this president can make promises great resentment. It stipulates that rulers in public demonstrations. drawing more protesters to the refusal to allow many opposition expectations that the governments for Russia’s future. men will receive their pension five There have been protests against demonstrations. candidates to take part, Kremlin in Moscow and Kiev could resume years later than was previously the waste dumps in northern Russia For the Kremlin, the Sept. 8 elec- candidates are no longer guaran- talks and find compromises, and case and women eight years later, and around Moscow as well as tions were a test of the elector- teed positive election results. perhaps even solutions. Gemma Pörzgen is a Berlin- although the latter was reduced public opposition to a church ate. The citizenry was called on Growing numbers of Russians On the other hand, there are based journalist specializing after fierce opposition to the regu- that was to be built in a park in to vote for 11 regional parliaments refuse to participate in a system indications that the influence of in Eastern Europe. lation. Yekaterinburg. Sporadic protests and more than 16 governors. Fifty- that merely imitates democratic siloviki, that is, men in politics who

Another bone of contention is BY DMITRI STRATIEVSKI The Ukrainian connection the duration of special status for the above-mentioned regions. ay 20, 2019, saw The Ukrainian government would the inauguration of To cut the Gordian Knot in Eastern Ukraine, will have agree to a transition period of five MUkraine’s sixth presi- to skirt accusations of treason while convincing the Kremlin to change its course years, whereas Russia has called dent, Volodymyr Zelensky. Despite for an unlimited period. The exact his convincing results at the polls, role of places such as Vuhlehirsk the young politician polarizes and Debaltseve in this future special Ukrainians like no one else can. Immediately after the race for negotiations with the Ukrainian In other combat sectors, however, owners, including the state, which administrative area will then have to The split for and against Zelen- Mariyinsky began, Zelensky side beyond the Normandy format the exchange of fire is still part of took the proposal to lift the block- be defined. This Gordian Knot will sky cut right through the heart of was prioritizing a peaceful solution would put Moscow in a position everyday life. Thirty-one Ukrainian ade off the table. be extremely difficult to cut. Ukrainian society. His supporters to the Donbass conflict, although in which it would have to admit to soldiers have died in Donbass since Zelensky has found heads of The West should not only sup- and critics have pinned various he was tight-lipped on details of his its role in the conflict. For its part, the new president took office. state outside Russia to be will- port Zelensky personally, it should hopes and concerns on their new peace plan in the few election inter- the Kremlin regards the fighting in Other steps considered by those ing to listen to him. He has vis- also back Ukraine as country, even head of state: fighting corruption views he gave. Zelensky’s concept Eastern Ukraine as a civil war. in Zelensky’s circle – such as lifting ited Germany, France, Turkey and though it knows these moves will vs. continuing the system of oli- only started to take shape between During his first 100 days in office, the economic blockade and re-con- EU and NATO headquarters in not have a decisive impact. Indeed, garchs, improving living standards the two rounds of elections in April Zelensky demonstrated adequate necting the drinking water supply Brussels, with the most positive the key to a peaceful resolution of vs. a further deterioration in living 2019. His plan involved putting an toughness in dealing with Russia, in the separatist regions in an effort feedback coming from Emmanuel the conflict lies in Moscow. standards, efficient reforms vs. end to the fighting, addressing even if his strategy comprised to build confidence – continue to Macron. The French president Zelensky has been charged with gridlock. the needs of the population in the mainly verbal comments. He called exist solely on paper. First of all, spoke of a “real opportunity” for a task akin to squaring the circle, Vladimir Putin did not call to regions not controlled by Kiev on on participants in the Normandy Putin has also demanded an end change after Zelensky’s inaugura- that is, of getting the Kremlin to congratulate Zelensky on his elec- a massive scale, resuming pension format to start negotiations as to restrictions on the movement tion and has expressed a wish for change its course without being tion, and there is no praise for the payments to “our compatriots,” quickly as possible, while also regu- of goods in Eastern Ukraine, but reviving the Normandy format accused of treason at home. At the Ukrainian president on Russian TV. whom he sees as “victims of a pro- larly attacking Russian activities Zelensky can ill afford to do Putin’s against Putin. moment, there is no possible solu- Still, Zelensky is obviously taking paganda war,” and direct negotia- in Donbass and the annexation of bidding. Kiev could regain control over tion that will be acceptable to all advantage of some sort of channel tions with Vladimir Putin. He also Crimea. Secondly, the young president separatist areas in Eastern Ukraine parties. Although prisoner swaps to the Kremlin, as demonstrated proposed greater involvement of As expected, two telephone must weigh his political power; he within 10 to 12 months. The road- have a wide media impact, they are by the recent exchange of prison- Western countries in the reconcili- calls between Zelensky and Putin is thus seeking to avoid conflict map for doing so is not new and small steps on the path to freedom ers between the two countries in ation process. brought no decisive breakthrough. with Ukraine’s elite, who do not is set out in the Minsk Protocol. in Donbass. Any successful re-inte- September. Zelensky, however, has categori- In other words, the new Ukrainian look favorably on contact with pro- The biggest obstacles remain the gration of separatist areas into the The central question still facing cally rejected making any conces- head of state has very little practical Russian separatists. municipal elections, which would Ukrainian Federation would be a Ukrainian politics – and the issue sions to Russia. In his inauguration success to show for himself thus far. For this reason, former president have to take place in all the regions compromise, and every compro- that motivated many Ukrainians to speech, which was partly given in In early summer, the Normandy , who now repre- under Ukrainian law, and the sta- mise has its political price. vote either for or against the politi- Russian, the new head of state was contact group (Ukraine, Russia and sents Ukraine in the contact group, tioning of Ukrainian border guards cal newcomer – continues to be blunt: “We didn’t start this war. But the OSCE) agreed on a path to a made any lifting of the blockade at the Donetsk and Luhansk sec- Dmitri Stratievski is deputy whether Zelensky can succeed in we have to end this war.” Critics ceasefire, and at the end of June, contingent on several conditions, tions of the Russian-Ukrainian chairman of the Osteuropa bringing a lasting peace to Eastern have accused Zelensky of making troops successfully stood down at such as the return of captured border. This would mean the end Zentrum Berlin. Ukraine, and if so, at what price. unrealistic proposals, as any direct Stanytsia Luhanska. Ukrainian companies to their legal of the separatists’ rule.