EFFICIENT ELECTRIFICATION AT EPRI MAY 2018 NEWSLETTER

As the recently released U.S. National Electrification Assessment (USNEA) highlights, U.S. industries, from manufacturing to farming, use energy for diverse needs and purposes. This issue of Efficient Electrification includes three stories on the relevance of industrial electrification: • An early look at what the Industrial Electrification Track plans to cover at the upcoming Electrification 2018 Conference • A broad look at the benefits (and research needs) of indoor agriculture • EPRI’s look at the electrification potential in industry from a European Union (EU) perspective Of course, electrification also offers environmental benefits. In nearly every application for which electrification is economically efficient, the USNEA found that the result is lower system-wide carbon emissions. To learn more, see our article on the USNEA’s environmental implications of electrification. Building on this issue’s look at EPRI’s USNEA and EU electrification reports, we also examine insights from a third recent study on electrification from the Brattle Group. Remember to check out our list of recent news, events, and EPRI resources at the end of Efficient Electrification—it’s an interesting compilation of electrification-related news assembled in one place for our readers. Early bird pricing for the Electrification 2018 International Conference & Exhibition ends May 31, so why not register now? The conference will be held August 20-23, 2018 in Long Beach, California.

Arshad Mansoor Rob Chapman

Senior Vice President, Vice President, Research and Development Energy and Environment

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Featured Video of the Month: EPRI’s Distribution Resource Integration and Value Estimation (DRIVE) Tool DRIVE is an EPRI-developed software tool that enables distribution engineers to assess the grid of today and the future with new planning methods, with a primary focus being the system’s ability to accommodate distributed energy resources (DER). ELECTRIFICATION IN ACTION

Indoor Agriculture: Benefits and Research Needs Why Indoor Ag? • Reduced Transportation Costs and Emissions. Producing EPRI is currently researching the benefits and costs of indoor crops near the point of consumption can reduce the agriculture in a number of circumstances. In this article, costs and pollutant emissions of transportation. Indoor we’ve assembled a list of potential indoor agriculture benefits agriculture also eliminates the need for tractors and other to utilities, utility customers, and society compared to usual farm equipment, almost all of which use fuels methods of growing crops. that can impact local air quality. The Product, Productivity, and Power System Operation Improving Indoor Agriculture • Increased Agricultural Productivity. Reduced spoilage Additional research is needed to realize the potential for indoor and uniform growth due to a controlled growing agriculture to benefit utilities, utility customers, and society, and environment, as well as eliminated pest damage, can to understand with which crops and uses the would be improve agricultural productivity. most beneficial. Answering these questions could enhance and accelerate adoption: • Differentiated Product for Utility Customers. Fresh and locally grown (“farm to table”) produce enables local • What is the optimal irrigation cycle, by crop type, to restaurants and grocery stores to offer a new product with maximize plant growth and minimize water use? attributes desirable to consumers. • What is the optimal lighting type, bandwidth, duration, • Enhanced Food Quality. In many cases, indoor agriculture and cycle to maximize growth for each crop type? can yield crops of more uniform quality and fresher food • How can sensors be used to best monitor water quality due to production closer to the point of use. and plant growth? • Dispatchable Electric Load. Electric lighting for indoor • In practice, how can utilities turn electric lighting for indoor agriculture provides utilities opportunities for peak load agriculture into an effective dispatchable load? shaving, valley filling, and other • To what extent and for what crops can brackish water strategies. This can enhance power system reliability, (salinity limits) or other “gray” water be used? How does electric rate affordability, and generation asset utilization. use of this water affect food production, quality, and Societal Benefits: Water, Land, and Air safety? • Reduced Water Requirements. Direct watering of the • What are the most effective indoor pollination strategies? plant’s root zone in a controlled environment reduces • Do existing point-source water regulations apply to evaporation rates (instead of spraying water outdoors), discharge water quality of large indoor agriculture and reusing water virtually eliminates water runoff, so operations? indoor agriculture can reduce water requirements by up • How can some of these benefits be better quantified (e.g., to 90%. water savings by crop and region, reduced pesticide/ • Improved Land Use. Using vertical farming, augmented herbicide use) to strengthen the business case for return greenhouses, and container farms, indoor agriculture can on investment? reduce agricultural land requirements by factors of 10 EPRI is continuing research into the Integrated Energy Network, to 100. Installing vertical farming in urban warehouses including aspects of efficient electrification, and how these and other structures can help reclaim and revitalize objectives can address the challenges of sustainable food underutilized land. Rooftop containers can make better production. For more information, contact EPRI Senior Technical use of this urban space. Leader Frank Sharp, 865.218.8055 or EPRI Senior Program • Soil and Groundwater Protection. Little or no use of Manager Kent Zammit, 805.481.7349. pesticides or herbicides, little or no nutrient discharge, and no sediment or dissolved solids runoff from tilling can protect soil and groundwater. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SPOTLIGHT

The Environmental Implications of the U.S. National Electrification Assessment

The U.S. National Electrification Assessment (USNEA) that EPRI àà In the Transformation scenario, carbon value starts at released on April 3 examines customer adoption of electric $50/ton CO2 in 2020. end-use technologies in the Uited States over the next three In nearly every application for which electrification is decades. It also examines key implications for efficiency, economically efficient, the result is lower system-wide carbon the environment, and the grid. This article summarizes the emissions. Shifts to electricity and as end-use environmental implications of the study. fuels, combined with shifts to natural gas and low-carbon To consider opportunities, drivers, and challenges for technologies in electric generation, result in declining carbon electrification, the USNEA examines four scenarios: emissions. Even absent a carbon policy, projected CO2 • Conservative and Reference scenarios focus on how emissions decrease 20% by 2050 in the Reference scenario, changes in technology cost and performance affect driven by efficiency gains and efficient electrification. outcomes. With a carbon policy (the Progressive and Transformation àà In the Reference scenario, technology costs and scenarios), the value and potential scope of efficient performance improve over time across the economy, in electrification increases. In these scenarios, the electric some cases rapidly, based on anticipated technology generation mix becomes less carbon-intensive. More trends. widespread adoption of electric end-use technologies, especially in the building and industrial sectors, becomes cost- àà The Conservative scenario considers a slower decline effective for reducing carbon emissions relative to direct fossil in the relative cost of electric vehicles, which is a key consumption. electrification technology. In the Transformation scenario, electricity’s projected share of • The other two scenarios explore the impact of a potential total energy reaches nearly 50% by 2050, with emissions economy-wide carbon policy: decreasing to nearly 70% below 2015 levels. The USNEA àà In the Progressive scenario, carbon is valued at $15/ figure summarizes carbon intensity and total energy-related ton CO starting in 2020. 2 CO2 emissions across the four scenarios. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SPOTLIGHT

Carbon Intensity of U.S Electric Generation U.S. Total Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 0.7 6 History

0.6 CONSERVATIVE History 5

0.5 REFERENCE 4 CONSERVATIVE 2 0.4 PROGRESSIVE

per MWh REFERENCE 3 2 0.3 TRANSFORMATION Billion tons CO tons CO 2 0.2 PROGRESSIVE

1 0.1 TRANSFORMATION

0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

U.S. carbon intensity of electric generation (left) and total energy-related CO2 emissions (right) for the four USNEA scenarios.

Although not examined in this analysis, improvements in air quality through reduction in criteria pollutants may be a more immediate driver for electrification in some regions, along with water benefits, health and safety, and other environmental factors. Beyond these environment implications, other key insights of the USNEA include: • Customers increase their reliance on electric end uses. • Final energy consumption decreases. • Natural gas use increases. • Low-carbon electric generation expands. • Pressures increase to modernize grid infrastructure, operations, and planning. • Technology innovation lowers costs and creates opportunities. For more information, contact Chris Mahoney, EPRI Communications Manager, 704.595.2653. FEATURE

Electrification 2018 Conference and Exposition: The Industrial Track Industry and manufacturing remain the lifeblood of a nation’s economy, even as other sectors (e.g., the service economy) grow in prominence. Industry is vital to trade balances, high- wage jobs, and national security. As manufacturing evolves to compete in the world economy, electric technologies play an important part in sustaining competitive capabilities. In the , the industrial sector encompasses a range of diverse activities that consume about 30% of final energy. In addition to higher energy efficiency (per unit of good water saving benefits of indoor agriculture produced), electrification in the industrial sector can offer a • U.S. Department of Energy work at the National range of non-energy benefits: Laboratories on emerging technologies in areas such as • Increased productivity (i.e., processing speed) additive manufacturing • Improved process control (e.g., responsiveness, reliability, • Guidance on engaging with utilities’ industrial customers and process intelligence) using compelling value propositions • Reduced emissions at the point of use, and potentially • Off-road electrification of the transportation sector, overall, as electricity produced with low or no carbon enabling air quality and energy benefits emissions becomes a larger portion of the generation mix • Water and energy saving technologies based on reuse Industrial Electrification at the Conference and reduced discharge from various industrial processes At EPRI’s Electrification 2018 International Conference & Diverse Audience Expected Exposition in Long Beach, California this August, “Industrial An important aspect of the conference is the potential synergy Electrification—Technologies and Implementation” is one between attendees. For example, utilities can converse with of the seven key topic areas. Both energy and non-energy their customers and customers with similar needs in other benefits will be explored in three pre-conference workshops service territories, as well as manufacturers/distributors about on Monday, August 20 and seven planned sessions on August potential electric technology benefits. Utility customers and 21-23. The workshops will cover: manufacturers can engage in similar networking opportunities • Customer Engagement in Electrification Opportunities: with each other and utilities. Additional stakeholders expected Gain insights on how to identify and engage with utility to attend include utility commissioners and staff, air quality customers about electrification opportunities (morning regulators, other public agency representatives, researchers session). from universities and national labs, and others. • Electrification as a Driver for Lean Manufacturing: Learn Co-chairs of the Industrial Electrification topic area at how electric technologies can facilitate and achieve lean Electrification 2018 are: manufacturing objectives (afternoon session). • EPRI Senior Program Manager Allen Dennis, • Electrification in the Foodservice Industry: Identify sales 865.218.8192 channels and training resources in this fast-growing field • Southern Company Manager of Energy End Use R&D (afternoon session). Pradeep Vitta Seven sessions will each feature approximately three speakers • Tennessee Valley Authority Senior Program Manager, to discuss: EnergyRight® Solutions for Business and Industry Jason • The value of efficient process heating or curing (e.g., Snyder induction and ultraviolet) technologies To Learn More • The benefits of foodservice cooking electric technologies • For information on exhibiting or sponsoring, contact (e.g., cooler kitchens, reduced labor, and improved food [email protected] safety through automation) • Register (early bird pricing ends May 31), view the • Environmentally-friendly food production (via transportation agenda, see a list of sponsors, view a sponsorship savings and reduced pesticides and herbicides) and brochure, and more. ELECTRIFICATION INNOVATION

EPRI Completes an Electrification Potential Study for the European Union

EPRI recently completed an electrification potential study for the In its report to ECI, EPRI’s assessment showed that a range European Copper Institute (ECI). The study assessed six key of electric technologies can be used in 24 industrial sectors industrial electric technologies in the European Union (EU) and classified under the NACE1 Rev. 2 convention for the EU. The focused on improving the understanding of these technologies chart shows that some technologies, such as infrared heating and informing European decarbonization efforts: and induction heating, have a high technical potential in • Infrared heating Europe, while others have limited technical potential (e.g., ultraviolet curing and RF/microwave heating). • Resistance heating For each of the six technology areas, EPRI also developed a • Ultraviolet curing technical case study that: • Microwave and radio (RF) heating • Provides a quick insight into the technology • Induction heating/melting/hardening • Summarizes the conventional method, the electrification- • Electric arc furnace based method, industry experience, and sample results For the electric technology areas, EPRI assessed the following • Compares the conventional and electric alternative in each of 33 countries: technology using electricity and an alternate fuel such as • The technical, economic, and achievable market potential , oil, or natural gas • Helps create and raise awareness of the technology • Energy, cost, and CO2 impacts • Technology status, including recent innovations • Economics (simple payback with European electric energy and capacity rates, natural gas rates, and other fossil-fuel rates) 1NACE (Nomenclature statistique des activités économiques dans la Commu- • Non-energy benefits nauté européenne) is the statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community. ELECTRIFICATION INNOVATION

Technical Potential for Electric Technologies in 33 European Countries

The case studies consider factors that may be useful to utility industrial customers to demonstrate the effectiveness and benefits of various industrial electric technologies and their many applications. A summary of study results was published in a March 2018 International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation (IPEEC) paper. For more information, contact EPRI Principal Technical Leader Baskar Vairamohan at 865-218-8189. ELECTRIFICATION IN THE NEWS

Brattle Brief Offers Insights on Electrification

A Brattle Group brief published in March 2018 provides insights While automation and ride sharing advances are far from certain, on electrification. Entitled “New Sources of Utility Growth: the brief points out that the “disruptive track record” of companies Electrification Opportunities and Challenges,” the publicly- in this technology space could quicken the pace of development. available brief is the third installment of Brattle’s Retail Energy (In a related story on autonomous vehicles, see page 6 of the Practice Briefing Series. January 2018 issue of Efficient Electrification.) On a topic also addressed in EPRI’s U.S. National Electrification The brief points out that electric heating and electric transportation, Assessment (USNEA), the Brattle brief describes the relationship through control and dispatch of electric heaters and grid- between further increases in wind and solar energy and connected EVs, may be able to provide demand-side flexibility electrification: “A greener grid, while not a precondition for to accommodate increasing solar and wind generation. (To learn

electrification, would improve its attractiveness from a CO2 more, see the article on heat pump water heaters on page 5 of emissions reduction standpoint and give momentum to any efforts the January 2018 issue of Efficient Electrification.) by utilities to help accelerate the transition to electric transportation The brief also provides a list of important elements that utilities can and heating.” (See the related USNEA story in this issue.) consider in a near-term electrification strategy. The elements range For electric transportation, the brief emphasizes the “possibility of from electrification program formulation and development to a more radical transformation of transportation” via autonomous resource planning, rate design, regulatory and other stakeholder vehicles and vehicle sharing. The brief provides three reasons why engagement, and infrastructure deployment. Several of the autonomous vehicle technology can accelerate electric vehicle steps are intended to ease or remove barriers to electrification, (EV) adoption: including: • It can help ease customer concerns over EV range and • Financial incentive programs maintenance requirements. • Cost-based modifications to rate design • It can improve EV economics via increased vehicle utilization. • Policy options to ease barriers • It can help enhance charging infrastructure by optimizing • Programs that aid adoption charging patterns, for example. The report expands on each of the seven key elements. (See a related story on consumer adoption of EVs on page 2 of the October 2017 issue of Efficient Electrification.) ELECTRIFICATION IN THE NEWS

Leading Articles

• In a rapidly evolving story regarding the Trump Administration’s planned rollback of federal fuel efficiency standards for 2022-2025 model year cars, California and 16 other states representing 43% of the U.S. car market filed suit against the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to prevent the move. • Paul Kenny of Tipperary Energy Agency in Ireland recently published results on LinkedIn Pulse of the impact of very low ambient temperatures on air source heat pump performance, concluding that colder weather actually increased energy savings compared to oil-fueled heating. • As reported on Fast Company, Gotham Greens is building an indoor agriculture greenhouse on a former Bethlehem Steel site in Baltimore, demonstrating how underutilized land and buildings are well suited to indoor ag. • A May 7 Bloomberg article profiles autonomous car industry leaders, those “staying close” and followers; and a TechRadar article explains “everything you need to know about the futuristic tech” of driverless cars.

Other News

• Transport Topics reports that in a keynote address at the Advanced Clean Transportation Expo April 30–May 3, Meritor CEO Jay Craig called electrification and alternative fuels “the most significant change we are seeing in our lifetime impacting the commercial vehicle industry,” and said it will require “some of the greatest investment we will ever see in the history of the industry.” • In an Environmental Defense Fund article, New York Clean Energy Director Rory Christian analyzes New York City’s plan to adopt a zero-emissions EV bus fleet by 2040. NYC’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) operates the U.S.’s largest bus fleet, which could include up to 5700 EVs once fully deployed. • Quoting Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jeremy Hodges points out that China adds the equivalent of a London bus fleet every five weeks (9500 electric buses) and that electric buses will avoid burning about 230,000 barrels of oil per in 2018 (almost as much as the total amount Greece consumes). • In one of several technologies the Swedish Transport Administration is testing to help achieve a fossil fuel free vehicle fleet by 2030, is conducting trials of the world’s first public road on which an EV can recharge while driving – “like real-life slot cars.” • The U.S. Department of Energy announced 12 new cost-shared research projects on batteries and fast charging, totaling $19 million. • Irina Slav published an article on Oilprice.com that summarizes the technical challenges of all-electric and hybrid aircraft– striking the balance between weight, reliability, and cost. • Reporting on a Nissan Europe interview with Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Megan Geuss of Ars Technica describes a one-year vehicle-to-grid system trial in Denmark in which parked cars support utility frequency response. • ChargePoint unveiled a 2-MW charger for electric semi-trucks and electric aircraft, but it is not applicable to passenger cars. • GTM’s Nate Adams published a story on how to “electrify everything” in a home, emphasizing the need to “make electrification cool, dispel myths for contractors and consumers, and remove policy and market barriers.” UPCOMING EVENTS

• Early Bird registration ends May 31 for Electrification 2018, August 20-23, 2018, in Long Beach, CA. Get Involved • June 4-6, 2018: Grid Analytics and Power Quality Conference and Exposition, Phoenix, AZ How can efficient electrification benefit you? To learn • June 4-5, 2018: Eurelectric Power Summit, Cankarjev more or get involved in one of EPRI’s programs, dom, Ljubljana, Slovenia contact Jimmy Herren (West), • July 12-13, 2018: AIAA/IEEE TEC Electric Aircraft Brian Fortenbery (East), or Kevin East (International). Technologies Symposium, Convention Center, Cincinnati, OH • June 20-21, 2018: GridEdge Innovation Summit, San Francisco, CA

EPRI RESOURCES

• EPRI released its U.S. National Electrification Assessment report, a recorded webcast of the release event, and presentations from the release. • EPRI released a Technology Innovation Quick Insights brief on “Bitcoin Mining, Blockchain, and Electricity Consumption,” April 2018, 3002013910. • EPRI released a Technology Innovation Quick Insights brief on “Blockchain: Early Activity for Utilities,” February 2017, 3002009889 and a white paper on “Blockchain: Technology Risk and Rewards for Utilities,” October 2017, 3002010242. • For access to all of EPRI’s efficient electrification-related R&D materials and other information, visit our website.

REGISTRATION NOW OPEN! Visit www.electrification2018.com to register (Early Bird pricing ends May 31!)

AUGUST 20-23, 2018 • LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA EPRI IN THE NEWS

• The San Francisco Chronicle quoted EPRI Technical Executive Ram Narayanamurthy in an article about the Clovis, CA, De Young EnVision zero net energy community of homes, an advanced energy community with real residents that will serve as a laboratory for evaluating the impacts of end-use electrification and integration of distributed energy resources. “It’s supposed to be a snapshot of what we’ll see in 2020, so that everyone can get prepared for it — homeowners, builders, utilities.” • Down To Earth posted an article quoting EPRI Program Manager Dan Bowermaster about possible utilities’ charging regimens in communities that are early adopters of EVs. “What if utilities came up with free lunchtime charging? The point is, for most people there is a lot of flexibility. At the end of the day, the potential is there for serving a substantial amount of increased load with minimal investment in new assets,” Bowermaster said. • Midwest Energy News posted an article on the readiness of Illinois to accommodate an influx of EVs. “Electric cars are coming, and utilities are ready,” said EPRI’s Dan Bowermaster in the article. “Car companies, utilities, the free market are working hard on different ways to integrate cars onto the grid.” • quoted EPRI’s USNEA on the expected decrease in total final energy and concurrent increase in electricity consumption through 2050.

About EPRI’s Efficient Electrification Initiative “Electrification” describes the adoption of electric end-use technologies. EPRI’s Efficient Electrification Initiative explores electrification in the context of the global energy system, analyzing the customer value–lower cost, lower energy use, reduced emissions, improved indoor environment, and increased productivity–provided by advanced, end-use technologies that efficiently amplify the benefits of cleaner power generation portfolios. Coupling EPRI’s modeling capabilities with extensive research on end-use technologies and grid operations, the initiative also will assess interdependencies among increased adoption of efficient electric technologies, their potential to provide enhanced control and flexibility, and their impact on grid operations and planning.

3002013520 May 2018 Research Institute 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304-1338 • PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303-0813 USA 800.313.3774 • 650.855.2121 • [email protected] • www.epri.com © 2018 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Inc. All rights reserved. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI, and TOGETHER . . . SHAPING THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.