CONTENTS

Harlow at a Glance - Why Invest in ...... 4 About Harlow ...... 5 About the Scheme - The Harvey Centre ...... 6 Transport and Connectivity ...... 8 Health ...... 9 Schools ...... 9 Planned Infrastructural Investments ...... 10 Employment and Economy ...... 12 House Ownership and Affordability ...... 14 House Sales Market ...... 18 Harlow Rental Market ...... 22 Migration ...... 24 Housing Delivery Targets and Activity ...... 25 Housing Demand and Supply ...... 26 Harlow Demographics ...... 28 Impact of Government Policies ...... 30 Investors ...... 32

2 Strawberry Star Research HARLOW AT A GLANCE ABOUT HARLOW Why invest in Harlow Harlow Mill Station

Harlow sits within an attractive area of the Harlow Town Station and countryside on the River Stort. Harlow Museum and Walled Gardens The town provides a mix of housing and the Harlow Town Harlow Enterprise Zone. The town has a strong business Town Park Burnt Mill Excellent transport Located within the UK’s Strong capital growth Attractive investment Harlow House prices to Cricket Club Academy base and is already a sub-regional employment The Princess connectivity to London (London-Stansted- - 132% increase in the rental yield of rise by 20% by 2023. centre. The town is home to well-known businesses, Alexandra Hospital in 30 minutes, Stansted Cambridge) innovation average price paid for a between 5%-6%. [CBRE 2018 report] Canons such as Pitney Bowes and Pearson, Raytheon and Brook Golf International Airport in 17 corridor, an economically new build home in the Harlow GSK and today provides over 25,000 jobs. Council Harvey minutes and Cambridge in significant business, science 10-years to 2017. Harlow Town The Dashes Centre Sports Ground 40 minutes. and technological growth Football Harlow is well located at the centre of the popular Harlow region. life sciences, manufacturing and medical technology Enterprize Zone cluster in the UK’s Innovation Corridor (London- Harlow College Stansted-Cambridge), a growth region, that provides a catchment of 3.3million people within Harlow The Water Leisurezone an approximate one-hour journey of Harlow. This Gardens Shopping population is set to grow by 20% by 2032. The business base is growing with a 2.2% increase Parndon Wood Nature Reserve between 2008 and 2010, despite a global recession. Average annual rental Strong demand for housing 1.5 times cheaper average Over 44% of those who Government-led growth of 3.6% or 18% fuelled by projected house prices compared moved to Harlow in 2017, regeneration and the between 2019 and 2023. population growth of 22% to neighbouring Epping were Londoners. Harlow Enterprise Zone by 2039 and shortage of Forrest and , will create an increased housing supply. which are within 3 miles employment cluster with and on the same travel associated population journey to London. growth, propelling demand for housing.

4 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 5 ABOUT THE SCHEME The Harvey Centre

The scheme is expected to create London style living at the heart of Harlow and will comprise:

The Harvey Centre is a residential mixed use development by Strawberry Star Homes, located within 6 minutes’ drive to Harlow Town Train Station. The scheme has an existing planning Parking spaces, New routes through A mix of different consent to create 447 residential cycle bays and open space the town centre types of homes apartments within a net floor area of • 24 hr concierge service • Secure children’s playspace • Studio to family-sized apartments over 303,000 square feet and over • Video entry to all residential blocks • Managed ground floor public realm • Private balconies (on selected units) 43,000 square feet of commercial • CCTV • Energy efficient apartments • All flats to have open-plan layout, • High street retail units • ‘All-electric’ scheme, supporting the maximising useable space and space. the potential to create a home • Restaurants and bars principles of renewable energy and government policies to decarbonise office This redevelopment opportunity is • Shared working spaces (potentially) energy sources • Sprinklers throughout part of the Harvey Shopping Centre • Private roof & courtyard gardens for • LED lighting residents, with events such as yoga, from Broad Walk to West Gate and outdoor cinema, social nights, etc. East Gate providing connectivity through to the rest of the town. This will bring regeneration benefits to the town centre like quality housing, employment opportunities, modernisation together with road and transport improvements. The Harvey Shopping Centre has significant footfall due to the presence of major high street retail brands, banks, bars and restaurants such as Cineworld, Starbucks, Holland and Barrett, Peacocks, Nationwide, Papa’s Café, and F. Hinds along with a 30,000 square feet gym run by Exercise 4 Less.

6 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 7 TRANSPORT AND CONNECTIVITY HEALTH SCHOOLS

• Harlow is well connected with easy road access to the M11 and M25 motorways. Princess Alexandra Hospital NHS employs over 3,000 staff making it Harlow has many day nurseries and maintained nurseries, infant, the largest employer in Harlow and is located just two minutes away junior and primary schools, secondary and high schools, and even • Served by two mainline stations providing a direct commute to London Liverpool Street in 30 minutes, Stansted Airport in 17 minutes and 40 minutes to from the Harvey Centre site. This is a great opportunity both for future supplementary schools. Cambridge. Central London is within 45 minutes through the London Underground connection at Hale. residents and investors. • There are also frequent buses from Harlow to nearby towns and into London. Some of the well-known schools and their distance from the site are: There is a plan to build a new general hospital in Harlow, which will cost about £400 million with estimated completion in 2024.

London City Canary Wharf Burnt Mill Mark Hall Passmores Airport 45 min Academy Academy Academy 49 min

1 mile 2 miles 3 miles Outstanding Good Good

Cambridge Stanstead Airport Harlow Tottenham Hale Stratford London 40 min 17 min 16 min 35 min Liverpool Street 30 min St Marks’s Essex Stewards Harlow Catholic School Academy College

King’s Cross Oxford Circus London Boundary St Pancras 38 min 1 mile 2 miles 3 miles 30 min Good Good Good Times indicate length of journey from Harlow to each destination

Paris 2 hours 46 min Europe Amsterdam 4 hours 30 min Figure 1: Top Schools Brussels 2 hours 30 min 8 Source: tfl.gov.uk / thetrainline.com / eurostar.com Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 9 PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURAL INVESTMENTS Cambridge M40 M11 Felixstowe

Stansted Harlow Enterprise Zone Harlow Enterprise Zone is strategically located between London and Cambridge, with its proximity to London Stansted Airport, making it a Harlow M25 ENTERPRISE premier business location and one of 45 locations across the country, designated by the UK Government, to provide incentives for investment. ZONE M4 London

Heathrow DP World 1. The zone provides these specific opportunities: London • London Road South (Kao Park): 20,000 square metres of ‘Grade A’ office space; largest Data Centre development with full planning consent and currently City Airport under construction. M3 M20 • London Road North will house a new Harlow Science Park - 14-hectare greenfield site available for design and build opportunities with a focus on the Med Tech, Life Science and ICT sectors.

• Templefields: existing industrial estate offering SME manufacturing space and longer-term re-development opportunities. 2. The development of a new motorway junction (junction 7a) on the M11, 5. Planned expansion of London Stansted Airport to include the • Potential to create up to 5,000 new jobs leading to increased demand for homes. which will provide faster access in less than 5 minutes to the motorway development of a £130 million arrival building. The airport supports from the Enterprise Zone. This is due to complete by 2020. over 24 million passengers annually, including flights to USA and other • Anglia Ruskin MedTech Campus - one of the world’s largest health innovation spaces for companies of all sizes - from start-ups and micro SMEs to large popular international destinations in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. corporates. The project is a partnership between City Council, Harlow Council, Southend-on-Sea Borough Council and Anglia Ruskin University, 3. Harlow and Gilston Garden Town – a proposed plan to build about which has the potential to create 12,500 new jobs by 2033. 16,000 new homes around Harlow by 2033. This is a joint partnership 6. Proposal for the Crossrail 2 northern terminus to terminate at between Harlow Council, East Herts, Epping Forest and the counties of • The relocation of Public Health ’s headquarters to Harlow and the development of public health science campus – a £400 million investment that Harlow, which will bring substantial economic and housing growth Essex and Hertfordshire. will lead to the movement of over 2,750 staff to the new headquarters by 2024 beginning with a phased relocation from 2021 and the creation of a science to the town. hub in Harlow. 4. Regeneration of the town centre by Harlow Council.

10 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 11 The presence of large companies and the growing number moving to With a higher active population and a better job density ratio, Harlow Harlow will continue to support the increasing demand for housing. Apart has a relatively better economic contribution and outlook than the East of from the Princess Alexandra Hospital, other big employers in Harlow England average. include Pearson, Raytheon UK, SCCI Alphatrack, GSK, Robust IT, Pitney EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMY Bowes, Teva Pharmaceuticals and Arrow Electronics. Harlow East England Great Britain % INDICATORS Harlow has a strong local economy supported by over 50,000 jobs and over 10,000 new jobs through regeneration projects such as Harlow 60 20 115 20 the Harlow Enterprise Zone. The increased prospect for more jobs in Harlow will create opportunities for investment in housing (2.1%) (0.7%) (3.4%) (0.6%) 62.5 as demand rises. 275 495 61.3 All People Aged 16-64 in 2017 (9.6%) (14.4%) 62.9

Figure 2 shows that there is more scope for London commuters to move to Harlow due to cheaper house prices and relatively shorter journey times 81.3 to central London. 80.9 Economically Active (Oct 2017-Sept 2018) Harlow 78.5 £275,000 2,520 2,800 (87.7%) (81.6%) 77.3 Epping Forest Broxbourne 77.7 In Employment £430,000 £338,000 75.1 Total: 2,875 Total: 3,430 5.0 5,755 3.8 Unemployed (Model-Based) Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium (50 to 249) Large (250+) 4.2 25,853 14,436 30 min East England 11.1 27 min 24 min 3,955 20 7,615 1,020 7.2 No Qualifications at 16-64 (2017) (1.5%) (0.4%) (2.5%) (0.3%) 7.7 22,090 36,265 (8.4%) (11.9%) 532.1 Residence based earnings London 590.3 Chelmsford 41 min full-time workers (2017) £328,000 30 min £385,000 571.1 14,080 33 min 5,118 565.6 33 min Workplace based earnings 558.1 236,890 259,005 full-time workers (2018) (89.8%) (85.2%) 570.9 Brentwood £280,000 £405,000 0.89 Jobs Destiny (ratio of total jobs 17,826 12,813 0.85 to population aged 16-64) Total: 263,895 Total: 303,905 0.86

Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium (50 to 249) Large (250+) Number of people commuting into London Fastest journey time by train £275,000 Median House price Figure 3 - UK Business Counts (2018) Figure 4: Other Economic Indicators Source: Inter Departmental Business Register (ONS) Source: Strawberry Star using data from ONS and The Centre for Cities 12 Figure 2: Commuting to London from Harlow and near-by towns Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 13 Source: Strawberry Star / ONS Census 2011/ tfl.gov.uk / thetrainline.com HOUSE OWNERSHIP AND AFFORDABILITY

Based on the median house price data from the ONS, Harlow house prices increased by 337% in the 20 years to December 2017, 57% in the 5 years to The average house price in Harlow is now up to 11 times the average earnings compared to 2007, when it was more affordable than England, reflecting the 2017 and 8% between 2016 and 2017, which is significantly more than the nearby towns and England. With relatively lower median gross annual earnings increased demand from Londoners and those from less affordable neighbouring towns. The average house price (£275,000) and house price-to-earnings multiple (residence based), and lower house price-to-earnings ratio, Harlow residents are able to afford a new home in Harlow despite the higher house price growth. in Harlow is significantly below London, South East England and the neighbouring towns in West Essex and East Hertfordshire. This shows that the market is less saturated with good scope for capital appreciation.

Harlow: Median Average House Price Harlow: Median house price growth in the 5 years to Dec 2017 18.00 5,00,000 60% 16.00 4,50,000 50% 14.00 4,00,000 40% 12.00 3,50,000 10.00 3,00,000 30% 8.00 2,50,000 20% 2,00,000 10% 6.00 4.00 1,50,000 0% 1,00,000 2.00 50,000 Essex Harlow England 0.00 0 Uttlesford Epping Forest East England 1997 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Hertfordshire South East England Essex Epping Forest Harlow Uttlesford East Hertfordshire Essex England England London Harlow Uttlesford Figure 5: Median house prices Figure 6: Median house price growth to December 2017 Epping Forest Source: Strawberry Star / ONS Source: Strawberry Star / Land Registry / ONS South East England East Hertfordshire Figure 7 : Harlow house price to earnings ratio Source: Strawberry Star / ONS

14 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 15 2013 2016 1 5.2 7

Local Authority Workplace Based Residence Based 5 6

With a higher gross disposable household income per head, Harlow 7 68.1 6 66.2 .2 residents are more able to afford a home in the local area than Basildon 26,728 29,925 65. 63

residents in the London Boroughs of Enfield and Waltham Forest. 62.3 Brentwood 36,068 41,589 6 1 53.81 The proportion of people who own 53.5

Chelmsford 28,817 31,794 50.9 their home in Harlow has not changed 50.6 25,000 significantly between 2013 and 2016 Epping Forest 29,679 35,385 24,500 which may be due to the shortage of 24,000 quality new homes, unlike Epping Forrest 23,500 Harlow 30,368 27, 232 where the decline in home ownership is 23,000 mainly due to affordability. 3

22,500 Uttlesford 28,800 36,274 7 People who are priced out of the more 5.7

22,000 26.5 2 expensive locations in London and 6 21,500 Broxbourne 29,579 32,406

other towns around Harlow will have 6 4 20.3

21,000 5 19.22 5

the opportunity to move to Harlow, 45 16.8

20,500 East Hertfordshire 29,535 35,631 16.3 15.6 which is currently undergoing significant 15. 20,000 regeneration that will boost home 14.2 49

19,500 Enfield 28,843 30,920 ownership as well as bring benefits such 9. as improved infrastructure and amenities.

Harlow Enfield Waltham Forest 28,320 31,365 Uttlesford Chelmsford Broxbourne Epping Forest Waltham Forest East Hertfordshire Essex 28,704 31,781 Harlow London England Harlow London England

Epping Forest Hertfordshire Epping Forest Hertfordshire Figure 8: Gross disposable household income per head in 2016 (£) Table 1: Median gross annual earnings in 2017 (£) Source: Strawberry Star / ONS Source: Strawberry Star / ONS Owner Occupied % Privately Rented %

Figure 9: Percentage breakdown of dwelling stock by tenure Source: Strawberry Star / ONS 16 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 17 Figure 10 shows that more properties have been sold in Harlow (45%) between 2013 and 2018 compared to the more expensive nearby towns. The negative change in sales volumes for Enfield and London confirm the earlier point that more people are moving towards less expensive locations HOUSE SALES MARKET like Harlow that are within a short distance of the city.

The average price paid for all residential properties in Harlow has increased by 70% in the 10-year period from £191,319 in 2008 to £324,365 in December 2017. This includes a 10% increase between 2016 and 2017. Flats recorded the highest increase (9%) between 2016 and 2017. Harlow: Change in sales volume 2013 vs 2018

The average price paid for a new build also increased by 132% in that decade from £201,572 to £468,000. This includes a 7% increase between 2016 and 2017. 50% Flats recorded the highest price growth (127%) in the 10-year period while new-build semi-detached average price declined by 4% between 2016 and 2017, which is explained by the shortage of supply of new-build flats. 40%

Asking sales price of new-builds within 3 miles of the site as at March 2019 (£’000) 30%

20% Tenure (£’000) Low High No. of units 10% Detached 400 1,545 53 0 Flat 203 685 30 -10%

Harlow Enfield Semi-detached 370 670 13 Basildon London Uttlesford Brentwood Chelmsford Broxbourne Epping Forest Waltham Forest Terrace 330 775 27 East Hertfordshire

Figure 10: Changes in sales volumes for the year to March 2013 vs year to March 2018 Source: Strawberry Star using data from ONS and The Centre for Cities Table 2: Asking sales prices of new builds march 2019

18 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 19 There were 1,425 units sold in 2017, which is an increase of 47% in the 10-years from 2008. This includes a 15% increase in the volume of apartment sales over the Flats which formed 54% of the total new-builds sold in 2008, now make up only 8% of new-builds sold in 2017. This reflects the changing demographics in 10-year period. Similarly, new build sales transactions have increased by 115% over the same period and 21% between 2016 and 2017. Harlow over the period and reaffirms the shortage of quality and family-friendly new apartments for Harlow’s young population.

Harlow: Transaction Volume (new build) Harlow: Transaction Volume (all properties)

450 3500

400 3000 350 2500 300 250 2000 200 1500 150 1000 100 500 50 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Detached Flat Semi-detached Terrace All Detached Flat Semi-detached Terrace All

Figure 11: Transaction volumes in Harlow (new build) Figure 12: Transaction volumes in Harlow (all properties) Source: Strawberry Star / Land Registry Source: Strawberry Star / Land Registry

20 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 21 HARLOW RENTAL MARKET £950 £1,350

Asking rent for a recently built one-bed apartment is up to £950 per Using average asking house prices from Zoopla, we estimate that calendar month while a two-bed apartment can achieve up to £1,350 investors can achieve an annual investment yield of between 5% - 6% (Rightmove, March 2019). for apartments. According to a local agent, Guardian Residential Sales A high level of Younger population, increasing Proximity to London Employment cluster, and Lettings, properties in Harlow can achieve over 7% yield. one-person households average house prices good infrastructure and relative to earnings planned regeneration

The number of households in private rented accommodation in Harlow increased from 14% in 2013 to 16% in 2016. This is due to a number of factors: a high level of one-person households, a younger population, increasing average house prices relative to earnings, Harlow’s proximity to London, its employment cluster, good infrastructure, and planned regeneration together with the prospect of good rental values and huge capital gains, makes it a great location for property investors. CBRE, in its 5-year forecast released in 2018, predicted 18% rental The rental market is expected to get better especially with the planned growth between 2019 and 2023, which is similar to London at an development of the world-class Med Tech university campus and the average of 3.6% per year. increasing employment cluster, which will trigger increased demand from university students and company employees.

22 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 23 MIGRATION HOUSING DELIVERY TARGETS AND ACTIVITY

More people are moving to Harlow as homes in surrounding commuter towns continue to become UK Others 400 increasingly unffaordable. The ONS 2017 migration Data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and data, shows that the majority of people who moved Local government’s (MHCLG) housing delivery test 2018, 350 to Harlow in 2017 were Londoners (44%) showing suggest that Harlow is not meeting their annual homes 300 an increase of 20% from the previous year. Of all Hertfordshire delivery target. 250 the local authorities, Epping Forrest in Essex (15%) accounted for the highest proportion of movers, Figure 14 shows that Harlow has delivered an average 200 of 282 homes per year in the three years from 2016 to followed by Enfield in London (10%), Newham and Essex 150 Waltham Forest (8% each), while Broxbourne and March 2018 compared to the annual target average of East Hertfordshire each accounted for over 6%. 336. Similarly, according to the housing requirement 100 assessments for the council, Harlow has a target to build London 50 This confirms a demand shift towards Harlow 7,500 additional homes in the 20 years to 2031, which is an 0 and the evidence that the housing market is fast equivalent of 375 homes per year. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2016 2017 2018 developing, less saturated and has better scope for capital appreciation than nearby commuter towns. 2017 2016 Figure 14: Housing delivery requirement Source: Strawberry Star / MHCLG (Housing delivery test 2018)

Figure 13: Original location of people migrating to Harlow Source: Strawberry Star / ONS

24 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 25 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY

The relationship between population growth and net housing additions in Harlow as shown in figure 15 reflect the shortage of housing supply and the increasing demand that is mainly driven by more Londoners moving to Harlow to exploit the easy commute and cheaper housing relative to neighboring towns and London. 1400.0 40 1200.0 39 39

38 1000.0 37 38 800.0 36

35 600.0

34 400.0 33

32 200.0

31 0.0 30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Population Growth Net Housing Additions

Figure 15: Housing (dwelling) demand projections in Harlow Figure 16: Net housing demand and supply in Harlow 2001 - 2017 Source: Strawberry Star / East of England Forecasting Model: 2017 Source: Strawberry Star using data from ONS and DCLG

26 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 27 HARLOW DEMOGRAPHICS The rationale for the delivery of apartments in Harlow is justified by the high and growing proportion of one-person households, as shown in Figure 19. Harlow’s population is forecast to grow by 22% from 85,000 in 2014 to about 104,000 by 2039. This rate of population growth is faster than that of the whole of Essex (20%) and England (17%). With over 60% of the population under the age of 45 and the expanding active working-age population, Harlow has a relatively younger population than neighbouring towns in Essex. Harlow: Population Growth 2014 to 2039 Harlow Household Formation and Projection The households and dwellings in Harlow are projected to increase by 18% between 2016 and 2041. This equates to an additional 251 households per year and confirms the need for more homes to be built. 100% 90% 45% 80% 40% England 70% 35% Essex 60% 30% Harlow 50% 25% 40% 20% 30% 15% 20% 10% 85 104 1,432 1,719 10% 5% Change: 22% 54,317 63,282 0% 0% Harlow Epping Forest Uttlesford Essex England Household Household Household One person Other with one with two with three household households Change: 20% dependent dependent or more with two or Under 25 child children dependent more adults Change: 17% 25-34 children 35-44 45-64 65+ 2016 2041 2017 2039

Figure 18: Population growth by age group 2016 - 2039 Figure 19: Harlow household and dwelling projections Source: Strawberry Star / ONS Source: Strawberry Star / ONS Figure 17: Population projection 2014 - 2039 Source: Strawberry Star / ONS - 2016-based subnational population projections (stated in ‘000)

28 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 29 IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT POLICIES First Time Buyers and Home Movers

250 60% • Help to Buy Equity Loan: The government’s • A total of 169,102 properties were sold across • In Harlow, nearly half of new homes sold in help-to-buy equity loan has made it cheaper England under the help-to-buy scheme 2017 were purchased using Help-to-Buy equity 50% for some home buyers to get onto the between quarter two of 2013 and quarter one loans. The use of Help-to-Buy in Harlow has 200 property ladder. The Help-to-Buy scheme has of 2018. About 81% of these properties were more than doubled compared to 2015. This 40% contributed to the development and sale of purchased by first-time buyers. implies that increasing numbers of people are 150 new build properties across England. relying on the Help-to-Buy scheme to purchase their dream home in Harlow. 30% 100 20%

50 10%

0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of Help-to-Buy Loans Sales Volume New Build Help-to-Buy % of New Build Sales

Figure 20: Number of help to buy transactions from Q2 in 2013 to Q4 in 2017 Source: Strawberry Star using ONS data

30 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 31 Proportion of total residential transactions INVESTORS 17%

Total additional properties 260

2016/17 Estimated Value £61 million

The increasing popularity of Harlow as a hotspot The UK pound, unemployment, and interest rates The higher rate for additional dwelling (HRAD) There was an increase of 28% in the estimated Other than the foreign investors who are Proportion of total for property investors is mainly due to some have been at their lowest levels despite the recent data from the ONS, shows that one-third of total value of Harlow properties purchased by capitalising on the cheaper pound, residents residential transactions location-based factors such as cheaper average interest rate hike and the uncertainty surrounding Harlow residential property purchases relate to investors between 2016/17 and 2017/18, despite from neighbouring towns are more likely to property price, growing rental population and the UK vote to exit the EU. Residential property either purchases of second homes or purchases a slight drop in transaction volume. This implies invest in a second home or buy-to-let property rental growth, higher rental yield and capital investment is seen by many as less volatile and by investors. HRAD was introduced in April 2016 that Harlow investors are not deterred by the in Harlow than Harlow residents. This is because appreciation. Harlow investors are also taking less risky compared to other asset classes with and applies to purchases of second homes and buy-to-let policy restrictions unlike in some UK neighbouring towns such as Epping Forrest, 16% advantage of the town’s proximity to London, high return potential. There is also the availability buy-to-let properties. towns that have witnessed a significant decline Uttlesford, Broxbourne and East Hertfordshire, good transport connectivity, good infrastructure, of interest-only mortgages. These factors have in buy-to-let property investment. Harlow is a have a significantly higher gross household employment cluster, increasing young population made investment in residential property attractive Based on the above data, it can be concluded growing market for investors as evidenced by disposable income per head than Harlow and the opportunities created from being at to local and foreign investors with high disposable that the introduction of the higher tax rate high and increasing capital appreciation; which residents and live nearer to Harlow than residents Total additional the very centre of the extensive life science incomes and wealth. on additional properties, the restrictions will futher increase with the current regeneration from other regions. properties and medical technology cluster in the London on the mortgage interest tax relief, stricter investment. Stansted Cambridge Corridor. lending criteria, recent interest rate hike and 250 the uncertainty over Brexit had no significant negative impact on the Harlow property investment market. 2017/18 Estimated Value £78 million

Figure 21: Property transaction 2016-2018 Source: ONS, Table 7b: Additional dwellings transactions & receipts by Local Authority 32 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 33 List of Figures Figure 1: Top Schools 9 Figure 2: Commuting to London from Harlow and near-by towns 12 Figure 3 - UK Business Counts (2018) 13 Figure 4: Other Economic Indicators 13 Figure 5: Median house prices 14 Figure 6: Median house price growth to December 2017 14 Figure 7 : Harlow house price to earnings ratio 15 Figure 8: Gross disposable household income per head in 2016 (£) 16 Figure 9: Percentage breakdown of dwelling stock by tenure 17 Figure 10: Changes in sales volumes for the year to March 2013 vs year to March 2018 19 Figure 11: Transaction volumes in Harlow (new build) 20 Figure 12: Transaction volumes in Harlow (all properties) 21 Figure 13: Original location of people migrating to Harlow 24 Figure 14: Housing delivery requirement 25 Figure 15: Housing (dwelling) demand projections in Harlow 26 Figure 16: Net housing demand and supply in Harlow 2001 - 2017 27 Figure 17: Population projection 2014 - 2039 28 Figure 18: Population growth by age group 2016 - 2039 29 Figure 19: Harlow household and dwelling projections 29 Figure 20: Number of help to buy transactions from Q2 in 2013 to Q4 in 2017 31 Figure 21: Property transaction 2016-2018 33

List Of Tables Table 1: Median gross annual earnings in 2017 (£) 16 Table 2: Asking sales prices of new builds march 2019 18

34 Strawberry Star Research Harlow Housing Market Report 35 Strawberry Star Research Unit 701, Vauxhall Sky Gardens, 153 Wandsworth Road, London, UK SW8 2GB +44 (0) 207 437 1000 [email protected] strawberrystar.com

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DISCLAIMER Information in this document was compiled using data from various reliable official sources with care to give a fair description but we cannot guarantee their accuracy. This report does not constitute investment advice. Images are computer generated and are for illustrative purposes only. All development CGIs and artwork contained in this report are subject to the copyright of the developer.