Paths More Traveled: Predicting Future Recreation Pressures on America’S National Forests and Grasslands Donald B.K
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United States Department of Agriculture Paths More Traveled: Predicting Future Recreation Pressures on America’s National Forests and Grasslands Donald B.K. English Pam Froemke A Forests on the Edge Report Kathleen Hawkos Forest Service FS-1034 June 2015 All photos © Thinkstock.com All photos Authors Key Words Learn More Donald B.K. English is a program Recreation, NVUM, national For further information manager for national visitor forests, population growth on this or other Forests on the Edge use monitoring; Forest Service, publications, please contact: Recreation, Heritage, and Volunteer Suggested Citation Resources Staff; Washington, DC. Anne Buckelew Pam Froemke is an information English, D.B.K.; Froemke, P.; U.S. Department of Agriculture technology specialist Hawkos, K.; 2014. Forest Service (spatial data analyst); Paths more traveled: Predicting Cooperative Forestry Staff Forest Service, Rocky Mountain future recreation pressures on 1400 Independence Avenue, SW Research Station; Fort Collins, CO. America’s national forests and Mailstop 1123 Kathleen Hawkos is a grasslands—a Forests on the Edge Washington, DC 20250–1123 cartographer/GIS specialist; report. FS-1034. Washington, DC: 202–401–4073 Forest Service, Southwestern U.S. Department of Agriculture [email protected] Regional Office, Albuquerque, NM. (USDA), Forest Service. 36 p. http://www.fs.fed.us/openspace/ Photos from front cover (top to bottom, left to right): © Thinkstock.com, © iStock.com, © Thinkstock.com, © iStock.com Paths More Traveled: Predicting Future Recreation Pressures on America’s National Forests and Grasslands A Forests on the Edge Report Learn More Abstract Populations near many national forests be expected to increase by 12 million new and grasslands are rising and are outpac- visits per year, from 83 million in 2010 to ing growth elsewhere in the United States. about 95 million in 2020. Forests experi- We used National Visitor Use Monitoring encing the most population growth and (NVUM) data and U.S. census data to highest rates of local visitation can expect examine growth in population and locally the greatest impacts on recreation resourc- based recreation visits within 50 and 100 es and other public benefits. Strong part- miles of National Forest System (NFS) nerships and cooperation among Forest boundaries. From 1990 to 2010, the popu- Service staffs, local communities, and lation living within 50 miles of NFS lands other concerned parties can help avoid or increased by 36 percent, from about 112 mitigate potential impacts associated with million to 153 million people; that popu- increased recreation pressure and enhance lation is expected to increase in the future. the recreational experiences of users. Recreation visits from local residents can Forest Service | fs.fed.us/openspace/fote • 1 The questions we sought to answer include: How many people live within 50 and 100 miles of a national forest or grassland? Which forests have the highest numbers of people living within 100 miles? How much is visitor use likely to increase in the near future? © Thinkstock.com Introduction Paths More Traveled merica’s 193 million acres of national forests and wonder and excitement of natural areas and so that grasslands—managed by the U.S. Department forests and grasslands can continue to provide other A of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service— critical goods and services. provide enormous recreational opportunities for the American public, as well as innumerable other benefits More than half the visits to national forests or including clean water and air, timber and other forest grasslands nationwide are made by people who live products, habitats for endangered fish and wildlife within 50 miles, and two-thirds of National Forest species, and cultural and educational values. System (NFS) visits are made by those who travel fewer than 100 miles (NVUM 2012). Given these facts, it is Counties containing national forests and grasslands likely that, as nearby populations increase, so too will are among the fastest growing non-metropolitan local visits to these treasured lands increase. counties in the country (Johnson 2012). National forests and grasslands hosted This report, a publication of the upwards of 161 million visits “As nearby populations increase, Forests on the Edge project of the in 2012 (NVUM 2012); Forest Service’s State and Private these numbers are likely to so too will local visits to these Forestry Deputy Area, examines the increase in the future. treasured resources increase” growth in population within 50 and 100 miles of national forests and Understanding where and grasslands.1 To understand how when to expect increased visitor use is key to ensuring recreation pressure might increase in the future, the the proper management of Forest Service recreational report also estimates future growth in recreation visits resources so that users continue to experience the to NFS lands by local residents. © Thinkstock.com © Thinkstock.com About Forests on the Edge Forests on the Edge (FOTE) is a project developed and coordinated by the Forest Service, State and Private Forestry Deputy Area, in conjunction with Forest Service Research and Development and National Forest System Deputy Areas, universities, and other partners. FOTE reports identify areas across the country where public and/or private forests might change because of increased population, housing, or other factors, including climate change. This report focuses on the projected growth in recreational uses of U.S. national 1This report uses population data and results for only the forests and grasslands. contiguous United States. Results for National Forest System lands in Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico are not included. Forest Service | fs.fed.us/openspace/fote • 3 Paths More Traveled © Thinkstock.com © iStockphoto.com © iStockphoto.com As indicated in figure 1, a 50-mile the Northeast. People living within of national forests often receive zone drawn around national forests this zone have access to numerous the greatest benefits from the and grasslands includes almost benefits from national forests and ecosystem services and economic the entire western portion of the grasslands, including substantial activity that come from those lands, United States and much of the recreational opportunities. Indeed, including the jobs that depend on Southeast, as well as the northern people living within an hour’s forest outputs such as timber and tier of the Lakes States and parts of drive, or approximately 50 miles, nontimber products. Figure 1—Location of national forests and grasslands in the United States with a 50-mile buffer zone. 4 • Forest Service | fs.fed.us/openspace/fote Paths More Traveled How Far and How Often Do People Travel to National Forests and Grasslands? he Forest Service’s National Visitor Use about 87 percent of recreation visits to the Bitterroot Monitoring (NVUM) program offers a great National Forest (Montana) are made by people Tdeal of information about the people who visit traveling 50 or fewer miles, 85 percent of visits to the national forests and grasslands. For example, through National Forests in Mississippi are made by people NVUM surveys, we have learned that people who living within 50 miles, and 81 percent of visits to the live in nearby areas are the Forest Service’s primary Lolo National Forest (Idaho) are locally based. recreation customers and are the main beneficiaries of the recreation opportunities that NFS lands provide. On the other hand, some forests receive most of About 15 percent of all visits are made by people who their visits from much farther away, drawing from are frequent visitors—that is, they report visiting that more regional or national markets. Several of these forest at least 50 times per year, or roughly once national forests and grasslands are located more than per week. 50 miles from large population centers, while others have or are near to other resources that draw people We also have a good idea of the proportion of visits to from a wide array of distances. Examples include the each NFS unit by people who report driving 50 miles Kaibab (Arizona) and the Inyo (California) National or less (NVUM 2012). We know, for example, that 90 Forests, where only 12 percent of visits are made by percent of NFS frequent visitors live within 50 miles people living within 50 miles, and the White Mountain of the forest they visit; the most avid recreation users National Forest (New Hampshire), with about 19 often live in the zone closest to the forest. percent of visits locally based. However, the distribution of local visits is not uniform across the NFS. Some forests do receive most of their recreation visits from the local area. For example, “People who live in nearby areas are the Forest Service’s primary recreation customers” Ken Hammond, USDA Hammond, Ken Forest Service | fs.fed.us/openspace/fote • 5 5Million With close to 5 million people living within 50 miles, the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest is a popular recreation destination. © Thinkstock.com Paths More Traveled Methods Estimating Current and Future Recreation Patterns To determine how many people live within 50 and 100 miles of America’s national forests and grasslands, we followed several steps.2 1 2 3 First, we obtained polygons We then added a buffer of Next, we overlaid the of forest and grassland the desired distance (50 or NFS boundary plus buffer administrative boundaries. 3 100 straight-line miles) to the polygons with data showing boundary polygons. the location of county and census tracks. 4 4 5 We multiplied that 6 For each census polygon, we proportion of the census We summed population calculated the proportion of tract area by the census across all spatial units. its area that lies within the area’s population (which administrative boundary plus assumes that population the buffer polygon. within the census polygon is spatially distributed more or less evenly). To estimate and compare the recreational use of each forest by surrounding populations, we multiplied the percentage of visits from people within 50 miles by the total estimated recreation visits for the forest, as reported in the NVUM (2012).