Short and Long-Term Solutions Disaster Management in

Simon Betsalel UPM 801D - Comparative Perspectives

Bangladesh’s vision for disaster management is “winning resilience against all odds” (National, 2017). The approach uses both short-term interventions (evacuation shelters and riverbank reinforcement) and long term planning (land use management and wetland restoration) to greatly reduce loss of life due to natural hazards. Though there is considerable room for improvement, they do represent a comprehensive and successful implantation of disaster risk reduction.

Context

Bangladesh is located within a massive river delta system formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rives. Bangladesh is located downstream of three large river basins: the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. The catchment area of these basins is 660 thousand square miles, with almost 93 percent situated outside the territories of Bangladesh – in , China, and Nepal (Hossain, 2018). The country is comprised almost entirely of low-lying land - roughly 75 percent of its topography is less than 30 feet above sea level and 80 percent of its terrain is in a floodplain (Guidelines, 2013).

Bangladesh has an estimated population of 162,650,853 as of 2020. With a physical area that is slightly smaller than the U.S. state of Iowa, it one of the most densely populated countries in the world. It has almost three times the population density of India and 35 times the population density of the U.S (Bangladesh, 2020). Its national capital, Dhaka, has 9 million metro residents and is considered one of the fastest growing megacities in the world (Bangladesh, 2020).

Despite its challenges, the country is making steady progress in reducing its national poverty. Overall the number of people living below the international poverty line fell from 44.2 percent in 1991 to 14.8 percent in 2017. At the same time life expectancy, literacy rates, and food production have increased considerably. Bangladesh rose to lower middle-income country status in 2015 and is on track to graduate from the UN’s Least Developed Countries list by 2024 (Bangladesh, 2020).

The urban population of Bangladesh is growing twice as fast at the total population. (Guidelines, 2013) This is due to both natural population growth in towns and cities, high rates of rural-to-urban migration, and a rapid influx of Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar. The UN designated district of Cox’s Bazaar approximately holds 860,000 Rohingya in less than 10 square miles (Bangladesh, 2020).

Disaster As a country, Bangladesh has the second highest risk in the world due to natural hazards and has a long history of disasters (Bangladesh, 2020). Between 1980 and 2008, it experienced 219 natural disasters that killed more than 190,000 people and caused over US$1 billion in total damage (Guidelines, 2013).

Facing its obstacles head on, Bangladesh has emerged as a pioneer among developing nations in prioritizing disaster, transitioning from reactive relief to proactive risk reduction. Managing this risk is imperative for Bangladesh to continue pursuing its path of modernization. Unmitigated disasters undermine development gains by damaging housing, infrastructure, human development, and capital investment projects that are critical to its modernization (Guidelines, 2013).

Page !1 As striking as the numbers might be, official numbers only factor in a portion of a disaster’s total impact. Reported statistics rarely take into account long-term losses in overall development, diminished public health, setbacks in education, and losses in workforce development. (Guidelines, 2013)

Hazards in Bangladesh (adapted from Guidelines, 2013)

Natural hazard type Examples

• Earthquakes • Riverbank erosion Geophysical hazards • Tsunamis • Mass movement (dry) • Land subsidence • Coastal erosion

• Flood • Salinity intrusion (coastal areas) Hydro-meteorological hazards • Cyclone • • Tornadoes • Heavy rains • Extreme temperature • Drought

Cyclones Bangladesh’s cyclones are the disaster that most regularly receive international media coverage. Its physical location at the head of the makes the county especially prone to these high wind and immense rain volume events. In the time period of 1980 to 2010, 60 percent of the total worldwide deaths due to cyclones occurred in Bangladesh (Guidelines, 2013).

These catastrophic storms and associated losses of life are black marks on the nation’s history. In 1970, Bhola, the largest cyclone in Bangladeshi history, killed over 300,000 people (Bangladesh, 2020). A super cyclone in 1991 caused the death of 138,000 people, and in 2007 resulted in 10,000 deaths. And most recently, Cyclone Amphan in May of 2020 caused the evacuation of over 2 million people in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic (Cyclone, 2020).

Flooding Over 80 percent of Bangladesh’s annual rainfall occurs between April to October monsoon season (Annual, 2018). Monsoon flooding of about 20 percent to 25 percent of the country’s land area is considered beneficial for crops, ecology, and environment, but is also responsible for direct and indirect damages and considerable inconveniences to the population (Annual, 2018).

The flood problem in Bangladesh is complex and multifaceted. The country is an active delta with 405 major and minor rivers which draining 3 trillion gallons of surface water annually (Annual, 2018). Every year, flood waters cover an average of 18 percent of the country, and once every three to five years up to two-thirds of Bangladesh is submerged. (Guidelines, 2013)

Although the Bangladeshi people are well adapted to monsoon floods, the damage due to inundation, riverbank erosion, and breach of embankments, etc. occur almost every year. Often these events have disastrous consequences to infrastructure and personal property, and cause immense human suffering and impoverishment of the poor (Annual, 2018).

Earthquake Over the past 150 years, Bangladesh has experienced seven major earthquakes of magnitude seven or higher (Guidelines, 2013). This is especially threatening to the country’s northeast region where the vast informal settlements that surround Dhaka are vulnerable to liquefaction and building collapse (Guidelines, 2013).

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Sea Level Rise Climate induced sea level rise puts 27 million Bangladeshis at risk. A rise of just three feet would inundate 10 percent of the country (Bangladesh, 2020).

Risk Reduction Framework

Faced with multiple threats, Bangladesh has developed policies and provisions to target, and reduce specific aspects of vulnerability. A mix of short and long-term efforts acknowledge that there is no quick fix, and that national resilience requires gradual and self-supporting change (Guidelines, 2013).

Short-Term Solutions Emergency Shelters Key to saving lives is the construction of cyclone shelters. Over 4,000 shelters have been built in the country since the 1970’s with support from the World Bank, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the Bangladeshi government, among others (Miyaju, 2017).

Though there have been iterations on design, a typical shelter accommodates 1,800 people during an emergency and costs on average US$300,000 to $500,000 (US, 2017). Many shelters serve as schools during non-emergency operation, with a standard educational capacity of 200 students. A typical layout includes about four classrooms, male and female restrooms, a nursing mother’s room, and a first aid room (Miyaju, 2017).

Despite the widespread construction and success of these shelters, there is continued room for improvement. Common obstacles include finding adequate site locations, delays due to natural calamities and political activities, and a shortage of a skilled workforce (US, 2017).

A common criticism is the lack of inclusive design. Many shelters are not accessible to those with mobility issues. Ramps provide access to the main level but not to the first or second stories (Faruk, 2018). And in protracted emergency situations, shelters are inadequate for those who have difficulty sleeping on bare floor. Stakeholder participation in the design process is largely absent and as a result the shelters lack specific amenities required by users of varying ability, age, etc.

But the benefit of the structures are still considered to outweigh their deficits. Not only as emergency havens, but often local populations co-opt shelters to fit community needs. Shelters’ ground floors are used for sewing fishing nets, as informal job training centers, storehouses for agricultural produce, or as playgrounds and general recreational space (Miyaju, 2017). It is interesting to consider how these uses can be formalized to enhance their use before, during, and after disasters.

Emergency Warning System The shelter network is effective only if there is warning and enough time to evacuate. This notice is provided by Bangladesh’s flood forecasting and warning system. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre was founded in 1972 and is operated by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (Annual, 2018).

The center generates and disseminates flood forecast and warning information to enhance the disaster management capacity of national agencies and communities. It aims to enable and persuade people, communities, agencies and organizations to be prepared for floods and take action to increase safety and reduce damage in advance of a flood events (Hossain, 2018). The center works to continuously update and improve its forecasting and mathematical models for better services. It is recognized as a vital non- structural measure to aid the mitigating the loss of lives, crops and properties caused by the annual monsoon (Annual, 2018).

Page !3 From April through October flood forecasting and warning activities operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week (Hossain, 2018). During this period the center provides a twice daily flood bulletin and a 5-day deterministic and 10-days probabilistic flood forecast. Flood warning message are posted on the center’s website, publicly accessible via a toll-free number, distributed by direct email, and since 2018, are available on a mobile app (Annual, 2018).

The forecasting system itself has undergone iterations in both conceptual approach and technological instrumentation. Initially, 11-gauge points were used for real-time flood monitoring and forecast purposes (Hossain, 2018). After the devastating flood of 1987 and catastrophic flood of 1988, river modeling was incorporated into forecast formulation, and through improvements in machine computing in the 1990’s, forecast lead times were increased to 48 hours (Annual, 2018). Today’s system is an extensive network of 60 rain gauges and 90 hydrological stations that uses a basin model as the foundation for its numerical weather modeling (Hossain, 2018).

Despite its progress, improvements are still needed for long-term (greater than 10 day) flood forecasts and for coastal flood forecasting. Both regional and urban models need to be developed to better provide for Bangladesh’s growing population and agricultural planning (Hossain, 2018).

Long-Term Solutions Complete disaster control is neither possible nor feasible. Bangladesh requires long-term interventions to provide for the health and safety of the country. Shifting development towards low-risk zones and enhancing natural buffers to reduce vulnerability takes time and requires sustained effort.

Land Use Sustainability is generally defined as that which meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the the needs of future generations (RCC, 2011). Sustainability in development is recognized by Bangladesh as a national goal and the county is undergoing an assessment of urban and land use planning policies (Guidelines, 2013).

Unfortunately, current land use planning practice in Bangladesh does not systematically consider natural hazards or disaster risk, and is largely characterized as unsustainable (Guidelines, 2013). The provision of municipal services is often inadequate and the rapid expansion of informal settlements is marked by inefficient land use and environmental degradation (Guidelines, 2013). This unstructured pattern increases the population’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards (RCC, 2011).

Two examples of poor land use management driven by population increase are the cities of Bandarban and Khagrachari. The population of Bandarban will double by the year 2030. The 45,000 new residents are settling on hill tops and slopes and have greatly increased the town’s vulnerability to landslides (RCC, 2011). Khagrachari’s population is expected to more than triple by 2030, with its 140,000 new residents occupying the marshy lands on the city’s southern border. With the high probability of seismic activity in the region, this development risks possible earthquake induced soil liquefaction and resulting structure collapse (RCC, 2011). Risk-sensitive land use planning is needed to control the exposure evident in Bandarban and Khagrachari and many other rapidly urbanizing areas.

The Urban Development Directorate is Bangladesh’s primary government land planning agency, but their long range planning initiatives are regularly compromised by disasters and natural hazards (Guidelines, 2013). Ideally, land use plans are long-term in timeframe (of at least ten years) to guide the locational dimension of short-to-medium term socioeconomic development plans, programs, and projects (RCC, 2011). The intense growth that is characteristic of Bangladesh stretches the capacities of local governments to monitor the location and quality of structures, and requires more comprehensive policy and enforcement interventions (RCC, 2011). The Urban and Regional Planning Act was passed in 2013 and aims to provide a uniform system of city and town planning, building control and resilient urban development throughout the country. (Guidelines, 2013)

Page !4 Building greater awareness of the importance of disaster risk reduction is an important first step. Planners, planning institutions, government at all levels, and the general public can be engaged through trainings, presentations, learning workshops to develop necessary skills (Guidelines, 2013). In particular, the Department of Disaster Management can establish a risk information sharing platform of analytical tools, science-based information, and base and hazard maps (RCC, 2011).

Disaster risk assessments are the tool by which relevant information is incorporated into land use planning. In Bangladesh, focus areas are identified as agriculture, education, housing, health, urban planning and infrastructure (RCC, 2011). These assessments are done using formal analytical quantitative methods or through qualitative risk perception. The process involves four steps: (1) hazard characterization; (2) consequence analysis; (3) risk estimation; and (4) risk evaluation. These assessments allow planners and policy makers to determine where and what development is appropriate for their localities, and what can be done to improve current development conditions.

Hazard planning is multi-jurisdictional and inter-local because risks are indiscriminate of political or administrative boundaries. Overcoming this challenge requires coordination between higher-level government departments and lower level of administration to design and then implement land use planning controls. A thorough understanding of stakeholders and the incorporation of community participation is critical for determining an effective and contextual approach.

The current consideration of disaster risk redaction is reactionary and sporadic but must transition towards purposeful integration into land use planning (Guidelines, 2013). Engaging government agencies, professional groups, nongovernment organizations, business groups, and communities provides planners with a deeper understanding of what drives people to locate themselves in high risk areas.

Mangrove Reforestation The management and protection of the natural environment is just as critical to effective hazard mitigation as is the management of the built environment. Bangladesh’s low lying, flood prone terrain is home to the largest mangrove forests in the world. The forest covers over 2,000 square miles in the north of the county and the Chakaria Sunderbans forest lays along the southern coast (United, 2018).

Mangroves serve as protection from coastal hazards both as stand-alone natural protection and in combination with built infrastructure. These forests are the country’s first defense against cyclone winds, storm surges, and coastal erosion, and coastal managers increasingly recognize the forest’s role as a disaster risk-reduction tool. The mangrove forest is capable of absorbing 30 to 40 percent of the total force of a tsunami or typhoon, and analytical models have shown a forested coastal belt can reduce the maximum tsunami flow pressure by more than 90 percent (Barua, 2010).

Beyond just hazard mitigation, the mangrove ecosystem provides goods and services for coastal communities. They help to improve livelihood options and and provide environmental support. Up to 80 percent of global fish catches are directly or indirectly dependent on mangroves (Barua, 2010). The annual economic value of mangroves is estimated to be US$85,000-$350,000 per acre (Barua, 2010).

Though there are no official inhabitants of Bangladesh’s mangrove forests, growing population pressure in their periphery leads to the illegal and unsustainable logging. The Chakaria Sunderbans have been almost entirely felled by the neighboring Cox’s Bazar refugee camps (Society, 2018). This abuse of natural resources impacts future generations and increases the vulnerability of current inhabitants.

However, local people actively take part in forest stewardship when their needs are recognized and addressed in decision making processes. Bangladesh has a long-standing mangrove afforestation program dating back to 1966. To date, more than 500 square miles of mangroves have been planted thought out the country (United, 2018).

Page !5 A United Nations Development Program initiative, Integrating Community Based Adaptation into Afforestation and Reforestation (ICBA-AR), aims to reduce community vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change through participative design, community-based management, and diversification of afforestation and reforestation projects. It is expected that over 60,000 vulnerable coastal people will benefit from the US$5 million dollar project (United, 2018). The effort will contribute to long-term resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems and will preserve a global treasure.

In many of the world’s coastal areas, adaptation to climate change will require living with sea level rise and intensified storm surges. Integration of mangroves into coastal defense and cyclone risk reduction strategies will benefit coastal and river landscapes, and both rural and semi-urban settlements. Mangroves as natural protection are also more economically feasible over long coastlines than the construction of hard infrastructure like seawalls. With mangroves in foreshore areas, embankments can be built lower and cheaper (Dasgupta, 2018).

Conclusions

In the last fifty years, Bangladesh has made remarkable strides in disaster preparedness and response. It’s remarkable that while a storm in 1970’s could lead to 300,000 deaths, a similar storm in 2020, Cyclone Amphan, resulted in only 12 (Cyclone, 2020).

A major strengths of the Bangladeshi response is its integration into all levels of government. Bangladesh’s coordination framework stretches from the National Disaster Management Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, down to a network of over 2,000 village disaster committees, 40 district Disaster Management Committees, twelve directly involved line ministries, and six donor partners (National, 2017).

Despite their success there still remains a disconnect between publicized efforts and how they actually play out in disaster situations. It is critical to center both the vulnerability and assets of communities in planning. A 2002 study found 1,576 out of 3,976 shelters surveyed were not in use due to poor management and maintenance (Miyaju, 2017). Even more troubling, cyclone shelters are often locked when not in use. During cyclones events local people are unable to evacuate because of lost or unavailable keys. Even the widely praised afforestation programs have complications. Initial monospecies plantings resulted in outbreaks of two major insect pest species (Society, 2018).

In reflecting on the United States’ approach to disaster, it can’t help but be observed that it lacks some of the qualities that has made Bangladesh so resilient. Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, killing 1833 Americans and causing upwards of US$161 billion in damages (Hurricane, 2019). The lack of coordination between Federal Emergency Management Agency and state and local governments resulted in tremendous suffering. The US lacks permanent emergency shelters and relies on its population to evacuate at their own expense (Evacuate, 2020).

Perhaps the key to Bangladesh’s response is its necessity. In a county noted for its risk, it is imperative to prepare. The United States has the luxury of being more concerned with property damage than the loss of human life. As Bangladesh continues to modernize it may begin to have similar concerns. International investment and high net worth individuals demand a higher level of security. Now that Bangladesh has proven its ability to provide in an emergency, it will be its next test to see if it can begin to manage its success in ways that promote and provide resiliency.

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Cyclone devastates and leaves scores dead. (2020, May 21). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/ news/world-asia-india-52749935 Dasgupta, S,, Islam, M., Huq, M., Huque, Z., & Hasib, M. (2019). Quantifying the protective capacity of mangroves from storm surges in coastal Bangladesh. PLoS ONE 14(3): e0214079. https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0214079

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Faruk, M., Ashraf, S., & Ferdaus, M. (2018). An analysis of inclusiveness and accessibility of Cyclone Shelters, Bangladesh. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705818301681

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Hossain, S. (2018). Flood Forecasting and Warning in Bangladesh (Vol 67). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/flood-forecasting-and-warning-bangladesh

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National Plan for Disaster Management. (2017). Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. RCC Guideline 3.2: Promoting Use of Disaster Risk Information in Land-use Planning. (2011). Asian Disaster Preparedness Center.

Society for Ecological Restoration. (2018). Bangladesh: Mangrove Afforestation Programme of the National Forest Department. https://www.ser-rrc.org/project/bangladesh-mangrove-afforestation- programme-of-the-national-forest-department. United Nations Development Programme. (2018, July 30). Diversified mangrove plantation to save vulnerable coastal communities. https://www.bd.undp.org/content/bangladesh/en/home/presscenter/ pressreleases/2018/07/30/diversified-mangrove-plantation-to-save-vulnerable-coastal-commu.html US Army Corps of Engineers. (2017, April 26). Bangladesh disaster shelters provide relief as aid program wraps up. https://www.army.mil/article/186527/ bangladesh_disaster_shelters_provide_relief_as_aid_program_wraps_up

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