Technologyquarterly December 6Th 2014 Power to the People Storing Renewable Energy on the Grid

A new way to Civilian drones Lasers brighten print electronics take off up cinemas TechnologyQuarterly December 6th 2014 Power to the people Storing renewable energy on the grid

20141206_TQ_DEC.indd 1 24/11/2014 18:06 The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Monitor 1

Contents

On the cover Matching output to demand is hard when energy is generated from wind and solar sources. But a number of technologies are being developed to store surplus power on the grid and release it when needed. If they prove to be successful it Chips oﬀ the old block would transform the market for renewable power, page 12

Monitor 1 Printing electronics, making artificial reefs, delivering online video, fighting cancer Printing electronics: Borrowing from photocopier technology, researchers with nanoparticles, the latest find a way to make an electronics printer on nuclear fusion, laws for robots, getting experiments RINTING has come a long way since wondered about taking the individual carried out online and who PJohannes Gutenberg perfected the chips as cut from the wafers and mixing won our innovation awards commercial use ofthe printing press them with a liquid to produce an elec- around 1439. Since then, movable type has tronic ink. The inkcould then be used to Difference engine given way to other processes, such as print electronic devices directly. lithography and screen printing. In the Printing with “chips as ink” would 8 Wanted: a tinkerer’s charter digital era, laser and inkjet printers ar- provide two big benefits. The first is that Users should be allowed to fiddle rived. Then 3D printers emerged to make the latest components from state-of-the- with their products solid objects by building up layers of art fabrication plants could be used in the material. What would be nice is a machine ink, which means high-performance Civilian drones that could also print the electronics that go devices could be printed. The second is 9 The robot overhead into devices. Now one group ofresearch- that being a digital process driven by Unmanned aircraft take off and ers has succeeded in demonstrating how software, like 3D printing, an electronics worry safety officials just such a machine might work. printer would not rely on the economies Although it is already possible to print ofscale that rule most industrial proces- layers ofmaterial to form some basic ses. Just as each page ofa document sent Grid-scale energy storage electronics, such as smart labels, these to a laser printer can be different at little or 12 Smooth operators tend to be large and relatively unsophisti- no additional cost, so too could the de- Storing surplus power on the cated compared with microchips made in signs sent to an electronics printer. This is grid would allow greater use of a multi-billion-dollar fabrication plant. because software is easier to change than renewable energy Some ofIntel’s latest chips, for instance, tools or production lines in a factory. contain transistors as tiny as14 nanometres (or billionths ofa metre). Making Electronic variety High-tech cinemas things this small allows hundreds ofthou- All this means a single electronics printer 15 The next picture show sands ofcomponents to be squeezed onto could make lots ofdifferent things, cope Laser-illuminated projectors a single chip. with short production runs or knockout light up the house Typically in the electronics industry, one-offprototypes without incurring a chips are fabricated in batches on silicon cost penalty. Such flexibility would be Brain scan wafers. The wafers are then cut up and the extremely valuable in product devel- individual chips packaged as components opment and for specialist high-value, 17 Tesla’s electric man which are mounted, often by robots, onto low-volume producers. JB Straubel wants to take circuit boards. The circuit boards are then So much for theory. The practicalities batteries to a new dimension installed in devices. Instead ofdoing are another matter. The big problem the things that way, a team at the Palo Alto team faced was to find a way to print tiny Research Center (PARC) in California chips in the right places. To achieve this, 1 2 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014

2 they turned to an old idea: xerography. deep water where they will be bathed in This is a technology used in photocopiers nutrients carried in plankton-rich seawa- and was the basis for the creation of Xe- ter welling up from below. rox. It was made into a digital process Watery dwellings The potential bounty was confirmed in when PARC, founded by Xerox in 1970 and a recent study by Occidental College in Los now run as an independent research Angeles. Over five to 15 years researchers company, pioneered the laser printer. surveyed marine life in the vicinity of 16 Xerography relies on static electricity to oil and gas rigs offthe Californian coast. position toner (a form ofpowdered ink) to Artificial reefs: New ways to These were compared with seven natural form an image. A bright light is used to construct underwater environments rocky reefs. The researchers found that the reflect a copy ofa page onto a light-sensi- are encouraging marine life and weight offish supported by each square tive drum (or the image can be written metre ofsea floor was 27 times higher for onto the drum with a laser). An electro- boosting fish stocks the rigs. Although much ofthis increase static field is generated in a way that OILETS, shopping carts, washing comes from the rigs providing fish with makes toner particles selectively stick to Tmachines and other assorted junk the equivalent ofskyscraper-style living, it certain areas on the drum to recreate the have been dumped into the sea to create suggests that leaving some rigs in place image. The image is then transferred to habitats formarine organisms and the fish when production ceases might benefit the paper by rollers and fused with heat. that feed upon them. But making reefs environment. Toner particles only need to be in the from refuse is now frowned upon. Ala- Making reefswith hollow concrete right place, but chips must also be orien- bama, for example, banned fishermen modules has been especially successful. tated correctly so they can be wired up. To from sinking vehicles in the GulfofMex- Called reefballs, these structures are achieve this, the researchers developed a ico in 1996, even when drained ofpoten- pierced with holes and range in height up way to induce a distinctive charge pattern tially harmful fluids. Now more bespoke to 2.5 metres. The design is promoted by on the surface ofeach chip. After being artificial reefsare taking shape. the ReefBall Foundation, a non-profit randomly spread on a surface, the chips Reefsimprovised from junkoften do organisation based in Athens, Georgia. are steered into their respective positions not workwell. Corals struggle to colonise Reefballs can be positioned to make the with an electrostatic field. They are then some metals, and cars and domestic appli- most ofphotosynthesis and for plankton transferred to a final substrate with a ances mostly disintegrate in less than a to drift slowly across their curved inner roller. Depending on the application, they decade. Some organisms do not take to surface. This improves the nourishment of are wired up using photolithography or paints, enamels, plastics or rubber. Pre- plants and creatures setting up home inkjet printing. cious little sea life has attached itself to the within. A hole in the top reduces the Ultimately, the intention ofthe PARC 2m or so tyres sunkin the early1970s to chance ofthem being moved about by team is to have all these processes taking create a reefoffFort Lauderdale, Florida. storm currents. place inside a single machine. Just like a Tyres occasionally breakfree, smash into Concrete used to make a reefball is photocopier, people would then be able to coral on natural reefsand wash ashore. mixed with microsilica, a silicon-dioxide use an electronics printer without having Yet building artificial reefsthat are powder, to strengthen the material and to know how it works. attractive to marine life can pay dividends. lower its acidity level to be more organ- Some ofthe reefsbuilt in Japanese waters ism-friendly. The balls are cast from fibre- From little acorns… support a biomass offish that is 20 times glass moulds, which are typically sprayed Such a machine is some way in the future. greater than similarly sized natural reefs, with a sugary solution before the concrete At their first attempt the researchers were says Shinya Otake, a marine biologist at is poured. This creates tiny hollows which able to print a device containing a grand Fukui Prefectural University. He expects provide a foothold for larval corals. Over total ofjust fourmicrochips. It is not much further gains from a decision by the Japa- 500,000 reefballs have been placed in the to shout about, but it is enough to prove nese government to build new reefsin waters ofmore than 60 countries, and 1 the concept ofbuilding an electronics printer that relies on xerography to construct functioning devices. The team is now working on printing devices with a greater number ofchips and better accu- racy. The researchers are also looking at possible applications which their process can be tried out on. Janos Veres, who manages PARC’s printed-electronics team, says roles could include printing devices, such as sensors, directly onto components. This is something the aerospace and automotive industries are exploring. Another possibility is printing large display screens. And it is not just processors and memory chips which could be mixed into ink, adds Eugene Chow, who manages the research project. Different electronic inks, like coloured inks in a paper printer, could be made containing piezoelectric, optical and even micromechanical devices. “This is a radical new tool,” says Dr Chow. “It has a long way to go but we thinkthat it could have a huge impact.” 7 Taking up reef ball residence The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Monitor 3

2 each one should last for some 500 years, neutrality: the concept that all internet says the foundation. content should be delivered without The value ofartiﬁcial reefshas been preference or discrimination. While the boosted by the spread ofGPS devices and debate rages, some big providers, such as

sophisticated sonars on boats. This allows Google (which owns ¤ouTube) and Net- fishermen to locate the subsea structures flix, one ofthe world’s largest video- precisely. It is necessary to be directly steaming services, are exploring other above the reefto reel in more fish, says ways to deliver films more reliably. David Walter ofWalter Marine, an Ala- Google has been perfecting a tech-

bama company that used to sinkvehicles nique ofpre-loading ¤ouTube video clips for fishermen but now places pyramid- for particular users before they even hit shaped, hurricane-resistant steel, concrete the play button. The choice is made by an and limestone structures to create artificial algorithm which analyses users’ viewing reefs. These constructions can cost nearly histories and profiles. The selection is $2,000, but many fishermen consider currently being cached in the memory of

them to be a good investment, especially some mobile devices running the Android ¥

to catch red snapper. operating system, althoug ¤ouTube

Using underwater drones forlong-term intends to expand it to other devices soon. ¤ studies ofreefsand their associated ma- At a deeper level ¦ouTube is fiddling rine life is also helping improve designs. with the protocols used for sending data. Sensors can be installed on reefsto mon- When a file is transmitted it is divided into itor boat traffic and activities such as fish- packets ofdata which are then reassem- ing and scuba diving. bled in the same order by the receiving device. Most web and video traffic is sent An electric aquasphere via “transmission control protocol” (TCP), Perhaps the most innovative way to build one ofthe core protocols ofthe internet. a reefinvolves anchoring a frame made TCP guarantees delivery ofall the packets, with steel reinforcing bars to the sea floor but ifany are lost in transit it stops the and zapping it continuously it with elec- Video in demand video to await their arrival. Most users, tricity. This causes minerals dissolved in however, might prefertheir film to keep seawater to crystallise on the metal, thick- playing even though there might be a ening the structure by several centimetres temporary glitch in quality. a year. Biorock, as the resulting material An alternative to TCP, called “user has been trademarked, becomes stronger Streaming media: As online video datagram protocol” (UDP), allows missing than concrete but costs less to make. More continues to boom, publishers are bits ofdata to be discarded and the show than 400 “electrified” reefs, many the size exploring new ways to deliver their to go on. UDP is sometimes used for time-

ofa small garage, have been built this way. content reliably sensitive applications where dropped

¢ § Three-quarters ofthem are in the ocean packets ofdata are not critic ¤ouTube around Indonesia. HE growth ofvideo online is stagger- has begun to serve large amounts ofdata The electricity needed to power the Ting. Almost100 hours ofit are to people using Google’s Chrome web Biorockcan be supplied by cable. But it uploaded to YouTube alone every minute. browsers with a system Google has devel- can also be generated at sea in various As more users watch video on an increas- oped called QUIC, which stands for“quick ways. A floating buoy can produce power ing number ofmobile devices and in- UDP internet connections”. from wave motion, or a raft can be teth- ternet-enabled televisions, the volume ered nearby fitted with solar panels or a will grow ever larger. Cisco, a networking More repeats small wind turbine. Only a dribble of company, reckons nearly1m minutes of UDP might also be used by the big content- electricity is needed, so marine life and video will cross the internet every second delivery networks (CDNs). A CDN func- people swimming in the area are not by 2018. Unfortunately, it can be a frustrat- tions like a repeater station, caching copies harmed, says Thomas Goreau, the boss of ing experience as many users find their ofpopular video and audio files so that Global Coral ReefAlliance, a Massachu- playbackkeeps stopping and starting. they are “closer” to users. Closer in in- setts-based non-government agency These delays, known as “buffering”, ternet terms means there are fewer time- which is behind the technology. happen when data are loading. This is consuming hops from one networkto Artificial reefsare also used for other normal at the start ofa film, but if it contin- another. One ofthe largest CDNs, Mas- purposes, such as to improve surfing or to ues it may be due to other problems such sachusetts-based Akamai, says that a help prevent beach erosion. Less wattage as a home internet connection not being UDP-based protocol it is investigating has than it takes to power a domestic air con- fast enough—especially when multiple performed well. ditioner is presently being used to build a users are online. But fitful playback can Regardless ofprotocol, current meth-

50-metre reefdesigned to slow erosion also be caused by the networks that make ods fordelivering video mostly still use a

£ ¡

along part ofthe coastline in the Maldives. up the internet being overloa ¢ideo traditional A-to-B form ofdistribution. An The electric current also stimulates gobbles up so much data that by 2018 it is alternative is peer-to-peer (P2P) network- coral growth. Once the mineral substrate likely to account for 80-90% ofglobal ing, in which data are distributed by users has formed, divers use plastic cable-ties to consumer internet traffic. to each other rather than being down- attach bits ofdying coral that have snap- Just as consumers can pay forfaster loaded from a central source. Such net- ped offnearby reefs. Some pieces will connections, media firms can negotiate works were popularised by file-sharing recover their colour and start to grow so-called peering agreements with in- services and, until recently, were used by again within an hour, says Mr Goreau. ternet-service providers (ISPs) to improve Spotify to build up its huge music-stream- With a rapidly expanding world pop- connections between their networks and ing service. Spotify now intends to rely on ulation, artificial reefsappear to be a speed up content delivery. Such deals centralised servers instead. This, says promising way to improve fish catches. 7 have fuelled a complex debate about net Babar Zafar, a Spotify product manager, is 1 4 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014

2 because CDNs are becoming more impor- events. Most online services today use a Winfield ofthe University ofthe West of tant to deliver media to users reliably. distinct data stream (unicast) for transmit- England, which along with the University Nevertheless, some publishers are ting data to users. But when millions are ofBristol runs the robotics lab, compares toying with P2P once again. Earlier this watching the same stream, such as a the challenge to getting robots to swarm, year Netflix advertised for a P2P engineer. World Cup football match, multicast but without the benefit ofbeing able to A spokesperson for Netflix was coy about would allow a single stream to be deliv- program them to do so. Nanoparticles, this, saying only that P2P is an “area of ered over the ISP networks and then after all, do not contain electronics and exploration” into alternative ways of forked at the last step to the devices used run on software as robots do. distributing video. by multiple recipients. But there would be To get robots to swarm three simple Dailymotion, a French video site, is costs in implementing the technology and software rules are necessary: don’t get too already experimenting with P2P. Martin it complicates the process ofcharging close to another robot; return iftoo far Rogard, the firm’s chiefoperating officer, users forcontent. away; and keep going forward. That, says says one ofhis engineers has developed a Some researchers are looking at ways Dr Winfield, will make robots swarm like novel peer-assisted form ofCDN delivery. to rejig the internet itselfto speed up deliv- midges on a summer’s evening. This involves video data being passed to ery. One group, led by Peter Steenkiste of CDNs by users while they watch. It means Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Now follow me that CDN caches are better stocked and, has $5m in funding from the National A fourth rule, to go only in the same direc- because the process takes place via a Science Foundation to help develop what tion as your neighbour, will produce web-based video player, there is no spe- is called the “eXpressive Internet Architec- behaviour similar to that ofa shoal of fish cial software to be installed by users. ture”. The idea is that such a network or a flockofbirds. But it is a fifth rule that Although promising, Mr Rogard stresses would be able to route data through the would make the swarm useful for bioengi- that the company does not yet have any internet’s least-congested points intelli- neers. This would instruct the robots to plans to implement the technique. gently. For many users, having the fastest follow, say, a light source or magnetic field There are other ideas. Bill Woodcock, connection is fornow the surest way to applied from outside the body. The robots executive director ofPacket Clearing avoid the buffering blues. For those who would then move like worker ants in the House, a non-profit research organisation, must rely on slower connections, like the direction ofthe beacon. suggests that a technology called multicast delays in their movies they may be in for a Dr Hauert says it is possible to program could dramatically reduce the load on bit ofa wait until some ofthe new tech- nanoparticles by changing their design. networks—especially forbroadcasting live nologies become more widespread. 7 This might be their shape, size, coating, electrical charge or the materials they are made from. Ant-like trail formations have already been observed with some nanoparticles, adds Dr Hauert. Tinkering with the design can lead to unpredictable behaviour. But Dr Hauert has a way to crowdsource potential designs and simulate the likely outcome. This is NanoDoc, which works like an online game. It allows bioengineers, and anyone else who would like to have a go, a chance to model nanoparticles. As in most computer games, players need to earn their spurs and workthrough the first levels to become a master, or in this case a certified NanoDoc. Their reward is a real challenge: for example, Hunting as a pack designing a nanoparticle that can detect a rare event such as a sudden cancerous mutation. The best solutions are tested in the laboratory and, ifsuccessful, will be tried in animals and ultimately in human Nanomedicine: Tiny particles could be programmed to swarm together and trials. Since its launch in September 2013, NanoDoc users have performed over mount a determined attack on cancer 80,000 simulations. HEN Sabine Hauert told a recent biomedical tools to fight cancer. Successful designs, however, can still WRE.WORK technology summit in What Dr Hauert is hoping to do with run into problems: what happens ifsome London about injecting trillions ofman- these nanoparticles is to give them the ofthe nanoparticles in the swarm are made smart devices, some as small as10 same kind ofeerie collective intelligence damaged? Would they still be controllable nanometres (billionths ofa metre), into that is displayed by swarms ofbirds, in- or could they turn toxic? The researchers the human body and programming them sects or fish. Some nanoparticles are al- have a lot ofworkto do, especially in to workas a packto hunt down and kill ready used to deliver drugs to a specific getting some form ofcommunication tumour cells, it seemed to be a fantastical- area ofthe body or to gather at the site ofa going between nanoparticles. ly futuristic notion. But Dr Hauert knows tumour so that it can be identified more Yet the research has already come far her stuffand is starting to turn the idea readily and destroyed by heat or radiation. enough to persuade Dr Hauert that she into reality. She lectures at the Bristol And studies have suggested that ifthose could apply some ofthe lab’s simulation Robotics Laboratory in Britain and has nanoparticles could somehow communi- software to programming robots to swarm worked closely with Sangeeta Bhatia at cate, move and act as one they could in the real world. That might be for tasks the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, deliver 40 times as much medication. such as using legions ofswarmbots to help one ofthe pioneers ofusing miniaturised One ofDr Hauert’s colleagues, Alan clear up an oil spill or put out a wildfire. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Monitor 5

atoms (deuterium and a second hydrogen 1,000 tonnes. Indeed, smaller versions isotope called tritium) in a doughnut- might fit on a large lorry. shaped containment vessel, to the point Dr McGuire’s design is, however, just A big bet on where the atoms’ electrons fly offand a that—a design. And therein lies the rub. soup offree electrons and naked atomic Lockheed says it plans to have a working small nuclei, called a plasma, results. This plas- prototype running in five years and the ma is both confined within the vessel and first operational reactors in ten. For that to heated by magnetic fields. Heat the con- happen, Dr McGuire and his colleagues Nuclear fusion: An American fined plasma enough and the nuclei with- need the help ofother fusion experts, company thinks it can have a in it will merge when they hit each other, which is why the firm has gone public. commercial reactor ready and creating helium nuclei and free neutrons. Nevertheless, though ten years is not 30, it The neutrons then carry furtherheat is still quite a long time. Those who think working within a decade generated by this fusion reaction out ofthe commercial fusion really does have a NE ofthe clichés ofnuclear-power plasma, and that heat can—in princi- future should not hold their breath. 7 Oresearch is that a commercial fusion ple—be used to generate electricity. reactor is only 30 years away, and always As Tom McGuire, who is leading the will be. Hence a flurry ofinterest—and not Lockheed team, notes, however, the circu- a little incredulity—when in October news lar magnetic fields which coil around a emerged that Lockheed Martin, a big tokamak’s doughnut become unstable if How to judge American engineering and defence com- the plasma’s pressure is too high. Those pany, has a new design for a fusion reactor instabilities permit the plasma to touch a ’bot that it believes could be up and running the reactor wall, at which point it cools within a decade. A team at Lockheed’s and the whole thing shuts down. The renowned SkunkWorks, where its wilder plasma’s pressure has therefore to be kept Robot jurisprudence: European (and often secret) ideas are developed, low, which reduces the rate at which policymakers look into making laws reckons fusion is ripe for a rethink. nuclei encounter each other, and with it for automated machines and come Attempts to harness the types ofre- the rate offusion. This means even the action that power the sun and hydrogen best tokamaks produce only about as up with some problems bombs in order to generate electricity go much power as they consume. HEN the autonomous cars in Isaac backto the 1950s. The latest, a device Dr McGuire’s compact reactor has a WAsimov’s1953 short story “Sally” called ITER, is under construction in different field design. Its field actively encourage a robotic bus to dole out some France. Fusion is attractive in principle. It strengthens as the plasma gets closer to rough justice to an unscrupulous busi- does not generate the same amount of the wall, meaning it can be maintained at nessman, it appears that the bus has con- nasty, long-lived radioactive waste that its much higher pressures. This makes the travened Asimov’s first law ofrobotics, cousin nuclear fission does. Its principal reactor more efficient and allows it to be which states that “a robot may not injure a fuel is deuterium, an isotope ofhydrogen much smaller for a given power output. human being or, through inaction, allow a that is found in water and is thus in limit- That matters. ITER, when it is finished, human being to come to harm”. less supply. And a fusion reactor would be will weigh 23,000 tonnes and stand al- Asimov’s three laws are merely a bit of incapable ofhaving a meltdown. But it is most 30 metres (98 feet) tall. This is a giant science fiction that is often taken to be a hard in practice. Reactors like ITER, known undertaking, and yet another reason to serious basis forrobot governance. But as tokamaks, are huge and temperamental doubt the tokamakapproach’s commer- robotic devices raise many thorny legal, undertakings. Even when they workas cial viability. Dr McGuire, though, thinks ethical and regulatory questions. For prototypes, they do not lookthe stuff of his design could deliver a 100MW reactor instance, ifan autonomous car is involved commercial power generation. (able to power 80,000 homes) ofabout 7 in an accident, who is to blame? And A tokamakworks by heating light metres in diameter, weighing less than bionic technologies that enhance or become part ofhumans are trickier still. Ifan assistive exoskeleton is implicated in a death, who is at fault? Ifa brain-computer interface is used to communicate with someone in a vegetative state, are those messages legally binding? It was questions such as these that led to the setting up in 2012 ofa project called RoboLaw, largely funded by the European Union. Consisting ofexperts in areas such as law, engineering, philosophy, regulation and medicine, the group presented their report, called “Guidelines on Regu- lating Robotics”, to a special session of the European Parliament in September. The report’s recommendations are designed to help legislators successfully manage the introduction ofnew robotic and human- enhancement technologies into society without compromising principles already enshrined in European law. The report’s authors warn against “excessively restrictive” legislation that Tom McGuire tries to make compact fusion can stifle innovation. They recommend a 1 6 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014

2 “functional perspective” that concentrates fungible or nearly so. on the practical use ofrobotics when Dr Iorns is clear that certain laborato- drawing up any robot-specific laws. Broad, ries are demonstrably better at some overarching legislation—such as Asimov’s Uber for things than others. Her firm takes out three laws—is likely to fail, says Andrea contracts with some ofthe leading ones, Bertolini, ofthe Scuola Superiore experiments including facilities at Johns Hopkins Uni- Sant’Anna, in Pisa, Italy, which led the versity, the Mayo Clinic and Harvard RoboLaw group. Instead, ad hoc legisla- Medical School. It then provides ratings, tion could be used to steer the devel- On-demand science: A startup reviews and other feedback, coupled with opment ofthe market in specific direc- enables researchers to tap labs vetting, so that users can choose laborato- tions. That is an important suggestion worldwide to conduct experiments ries that can provide what they require when the term “robot” covers such a and then compare pricing. diversity ofdevices, from medical equip- on their behalf Unlike using a contract-research lab, ment to drones and vacuum cleaners. OST research equipment is under- which may involve lengthy negotiations Stringent product-safety rules, for Mused. Once it has been budgeted for, and numerous visits to lawyers, Science example, might discourage development grant proposals written or fee schedules Exchange gets each party to sign an agree- ofadvanced prostheses and exoskeletons, set to cover its purchase, kit costing mil- ment that governs all interactions and a set oftechnologies that the European lions ofdollars can sit idle for most ofthe expectations for the workwhich will be Union is keen to support. Liability exemp- working day. This inefficiency troubled carried out. This is especially valuable for tions formanufacturers could relieve Elizabeth Iorns, a biologist from New startups as it saves time and money. some pressure. “No-fault” plans, espec- Zealand. So she came up with the idea ofa Ethan Perlstein, the founder ofPerl- ially in cases where an insurance market marketplace where laboratories could rent steinLab, has used both contract labs and for robotic devices is difficult to establish, out their machines to conduct experi- Science Exchange. His San Francisco- could help too. Manufacturers and gov- ments forothers. based startup tries to find treatments for ernments might pay into a compensation Dr Iorns started Science Exchange in diseases that are too rare to attract the fund to be used ifmishaps occur. 2011when working as an assistant profes- interest ofbig drugs firms. Many ofthese Prostheses also raise questions about sor at the University ofMiami. She was diseases are genetic. Although he intends the legal distinction between person and backed by Y Combinator, a Silicon Valley to continue using contract labs for some of property, but the report suggests that there firm that helps startups, and she now the company’s work, Dr Perlstein says the is no advantage to creating a new category serves as the exchange’s chiefexecutive. service negotiations involved “might add between human and machine. As Dr Laboratories that carry out contract another month oflead time and another Bertolini puts it: “A human with a prosthe- research have existed for a long time. But few thousand dollars oflegal costs”. sis is still a human.” Science Exchange is exploring a new In the first version ofher exchange, Dr frontier, that ofthe shared economy, in Iorns asked researchers to post their ex- Robot rights which the best-known examples are Uber, perimental needs and expected labs to But what about rights for the machines? Dr an app-based ride-sharing and taxi ser- reply with offers. This didn’t work. “Re- Bertolini says there are several arguments vice, and Airbnb, which helps people rent searchers are very private about the work against granting them. Artificial intelli- out rooms. The idea is that the market- they’re conducting,” she says. So the re- gence is still far from surpassing that of maker shaves away the awkward bits vised model gets labs to list their offerings. humans. More philosophically, any auton- relating to contractual, ad hoc relation- So far, this amounts to over 6,400 possible omy that robots gain is designed and ships, often between parties who do not experiments. Researchers then obtain bids granted by humans. Thus, the argument know each other, to create something for the workthey need or agree to posted goes, ifrobots are to be considered objects, fees. Science Exchange now has links to not subjects, the question ofrights dis- 1,000 labs and has handled $43.6m in appears. But the report says that in limited quotations, $21.5m ofthat in the first nine circumstances robots might be granted a months of2014. The firm does not yet legal status similar to a corporation. This reveal the value ofcompleted transac- could allow them to perform some tran- tions, on which it levies a fee. sactions, such as entering into contracts. Each experiment may stand on its own. The authors believe that international “It doesn’t require disclosure ofthe whole bodies could play an important part in idea,” adds Dr Iorns, and participating labs establishing standards and regulation. But make a legal commitment not to publish robot law is not on many agendas. Ryan or to share any ofthe data they obtain. Calo, a law professor at the University of Having such workdone by a third party Washington, says that America lags be- can have advantages. It is harder for re- hind both Europe and Asia in its attempts searchers to cherry-pickresults uninten- to tackle ethical, regulatory and legal tionally by shaping the process. There is issues in robotics. Mr Calo has called for also the benefit ofhaving the workcarried the establishment ofa Federal Robotics out by an experienced operator ofthe Commission to co-ordinate the piecemeal equipment concerned. research going on in America. In the But some things researchers will want meantime, he says, the RoboLaw guide- to keep in-house. As PerlsteinLab has lines will be ofsome help. grown it has begun buying a variety of Whether or not European legislators equipment for“mission-critical work”. become the first to legislate on robotics, at “There’s no way we’re going to outsource least Asimov’s three laws can, respectfully, that,” says Dr Perlstein. Nor does he intend be laid to rest as the basis forserious legal to rent his new gear out. But as some ofit discussion. The truth is stranger, and more costs more than $500,000, one day he complex, than fiction. 7 might be tempted. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Innovation awards 7

We extend our congratulations to our And the winners are… winners, and our thanks to the judges: Yet-Ming Chiang, professor ofceramics, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology; George Craford, chieftechnology officer, Philips Lumileds; Hernando de Soto, Innovation awards: Our annual prizes recognise successful innovators in president, Institute for Liberty and Democ- racy; Rodney Ferguson, managing director, eight categories. Here are this year’s winners Panorama Capital; Napoleone Ferrara, HIS newspaper was established in 1843 cient data centres. The rows ofservers that senior deputy director forbasic science, Tto take part in “a severe contest be- deliver internet services consume large University ofCalifornia, San Diego; tween intelligence, which presses for- amounts ofelectricity. Dr Hölzle’s in- François Grey, manager, Citizen Cyberlab, ward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance novations have reduced energy consump- University ofGeneva; Robert Guest, Un- obstructing our progress.” One ofthe chief tion in Google’s facilities to less than 50% ited States editor, The Economist; Vic ways in which intelligence presses for- ofthe industry average. Hayes, senior research fellow, Delft Uni- ward is through innovation, which is now • Social and economic innovation: versity ofTechnology; Luke Ibbetson, recognised as one ofthe most important Nandan Nilekani, former chairman of head ofR&D technology, Group R&D, contributors to economic growth. In- the Unique Identification Authority of Vodafone; Mo Ibrahim, founder, Mo novation, in turn, depends on the creative India, for the development ofIndia’s Ibrahim Foundation; Salim Ismail, global individuals who dream up new ideas and national identification scheme. A lack of ambassador, Singularity University; turn them into reality. formal identity documents excludes many Jimmy Kim, general partner, SparkLabs The Economist recognises these talent- Indians from the modern economy. Mr Global Ventures; Susie Lonie, mobile ed people through its annual Innovation Nilekani led the project to create a nation- payments consultant, SJL Consultant awards, made in eight fields: bioscience, al scheme based on biometric verification. Services; Paul Markillie, innovation editor, computing and telecommunications, • Process and service innovation: Perry The Economist; Raghunath Anant

energy and the environment, social and Chen, Yancey Strickler and Charles Mashelkar, president, Global Research

economic innovation, process and service Adler, the founders ofKickstarter, for Alliance, Indi ©oichiro Matsumoto, innovation, consumer products, a flexible popularising crowdfunding. Kickstarter professor and executive vice-president of “no boundaries” category, and the cor- has let over 7m people fund 73,000 pro- engineering, University ofTokyo; Oliver porate use ofinnovation. The awards were jects to the tune ofmore than $1billion. Morton, senior briefings editor, The Econo- presented at a ceremony in Hong Kong on • Consumer: Renaud Laplanche, foun- mist; Andrew Odlyzko, professor ofmath- October 9th. And the winners are: der and chiefexecutive ofLending Club, ematics, University ofMinnesota; Lesa B. • Bioscience: Jay Keasling, professor of for popularising peer-to-peer consumer Roe, deputy associate administrator, chemical engineering at the University of lending. Intrigued by the fact that savings Langley Research Centre, NASA; Juliana California, Berkeley, for developing syn- accounts pay very little interest, but credit Rotich, executive director, Ushahidi; thetic artemisinin, the main ingredient in cards charge high rates, Mr Laplanche set oussefSalah, deputy head, ICT sector, the treatment ofmalaria. Artemisinin is up a platform to match lenders and bor- Biblioteca Alexandrina; Jerry Simmons, normally extracted from the sweet worm- rowers directly, giving both better rates. deputy director forsemiconductor and wood plant, but Dr Keasling repro- • No boundaries: JackDorsey, Biz Stone optical sciences, Sandia National Labora- grammed microbes to make it. and Evan Williams, the founders ofTwit- tories; Kanwal Singh, senior managing • Computing and telecommunications: ter, for pioneering microblogging using director, Helion Ventures; Tom Standage, Andrew Rubin, former senior vice-presi- short messages, or “tweets”. Twitter has digital editor, The Economist (chairman); dent ofGoogle, for the development of 285m monthly users, who collectively Ning Tao, chiefoperating officer, Innova- Android, the world’s most widely used send more than 500m tweets every day. tion Works; Tuula Teeri, president, Aalto smartphone operating system. Based on a • Corporate innovation: Pixar. A pioneer University; Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China Linux kernel, Android was acquired by in computer animation, Pixar makes both business editor, The Economist; Hongyang Google in 2005 and now powers 85% of its own films (such as “Toy Story 3”, pic- Wang, director, National Centre for Liver smartphones sold each year. tured) and the tools used by other studios Cancer, China Department ofHealth • Energy and the environment: Urs for animation and special effects. Pixar Science; Huanming ang, director, Beijing Hölzle, senior vice-president oftechnical has earned 30 Academy Awards, includ- Genomics Institute. The judging was run infrastructure at Google, for energy-effi- ing seven for best animated feature. by John Eckhouse ofEventualities. 7 8 Difference engine The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Wanted: a tinkerer’s charter

Modifying devices: Users should be allowed to ﬁddle with the way consumer products work without suﬀering penalties from governments or sanctions from manufacturers

NLOCKING a mobile phone is not from litigation, “safe harbour” provisions Ucalled “jail breaking” for nothing. Us- built into the DMCA allowed content own- ing software to unlock a phone—so it can ers to demand that any of their copyright- be used on a different cellular network ed material appearing on a website be tak- after the initial contract with the wireless en down immediately. If an online carrier expires—has been punishable in company complied promptly, the threat of America by a fine of up to $500,000 litigation was withdrawn. and/or five years in jail. Many have risked To keep Hollywood happy, language the penalties so they could use their was included in the act (section 1201) that phones on foreign networks while travel- made it illegal for anyone to “circumvent a ling abroad. Others have done so to get rid technological measure that effectively con- of all the annoying craplets installed by trols access to a work protected under this their carrier. And a few have “rooted” their title”. In other words, it was against the law phones to modify the way they work. to modify, repair or build tools to help cir- Thankfully, this prohibition has now cumvent the “digital rights management” ended. A year ago, a “We the People” peti- (DRM) techniques used to encode DVDs tion on the White House’s website gath- and other digital media. ered 114,000 signatures for reform of the Most DRM systems lock individual law—more than enough to send a wake-up copies of digital media to a specific user or call to lawmakers. In July Congress at last passed the Unlocking machine. However, bypassing the laughable content-scrambling Consumer Choice and Wireless Competition Act, which Barack system (the copyright protection used on DVDs) is so trivial tech- Obama signed it into law. nically that it practically invites piracy. Free software tools like A victory, then, for common sense? Not entirely. Americans’ HandBrake, DVDFab and DVD Shrink can strip regional codes off new freedom to unlock their phones could be quashed next year. DVDs and allow their contents to be transferred to hard drives or The Library of Congress—the agency responsible for interpreting other storage media. The DMCA may have been a joke for pirate matters concerning copyright to the legislature—decides every duplicating shops churning out illicit CDs and DVDs for the black three yearswhetherto grant, reneworwithdrawspecial copyright market. But it was no laughing matter for people who had bought exemptions. The next review is in 2015. It is possible, but with luck legitimate copies and merely wished to make backups, or to trans- unlikely, that this could lead to a challenge to the act. fer one of their own disc’s content to a smartphone, tablet or iPod for their own convenience. It’s my gear Unfortunately, the act’s drafters failed to appreciate the speed Exactly why copyright law should be involved in something that with which digital technology moves. For instance, the DMCA ought to be a simple matter of consumer rights is hard to fathom. dates backto when DVDs were all the rage. But sales ofDVDs have Any rational interpretation would suggest that when people buy dwindled as people find it cheaper and easier to stream digital orpayoffthe loan on a piece ofequipment—whethera car, a refrig- content from Netflix and the like. Yet the rules about circumven- erator or a mobile phone—they own it, and should be free to do tion survive to haunt the latest devices. what they want with it. Least of all should they have to seek per- An even bigger mistake by the DMCA’s drafters was to define mission from the manufacturer or the government. circumvention so broadly that it could be applied to practically Yetthe digital era haschanged the notion ofownership. Buying anything containing a digital controller—a car, a washing machine a computer, for instance, confers ownership and the machine is or a combine harvester. Although it was never intended to cover covered by patents, trade secrets and design rights. But buying a mobile phones, wireless carriers embraced the DMCA as a way to computer program provides merely a licence to use the software. lock customers into their networks. And they aggressively threat- Ownership of the program remains with the person or company ened websites offering to help people unlocktheir phones. that created it. If copyright protection is considered to be more ap- Companies in other industries have been quick to adopt simi- propriate for software (although many disagree with that), then it lar anti-competitive practices—forcing customers, for instance, to isnotunreasonable to thinkthatanyintellectual property embod- buy supplies and maintenance support from them alone. How ied in hardware should certainly not be covered by copyright. soon before only official dealers can service and repair people’s But it is not that simple. Back in the 1990s, following the intro- cars and appliances? Independent service shops already com- duction of audio compression algorithms like MP3 and file-shar- plain that manufacturers withhold diagnostic software and digi- ing websites such as Napster, record companies faced an explo- tal manuals needed to fix customers’ products. sion in online piracy. Seeing it was their turn next, Hollywood The answer, according to Sina Khanifar, an entrepreneur and studios lobbied Congress to prevent their films from being ripped digital-rights activist who initiated the White House petition, is to off too. Meanwhile, internet-service providers and online compa- rewrite the DMCA’s section 1201—to tighten the definition of what nies—underthe threatofbeingsued everytime theirservices were exactly it is that is illegal to circumvent. The issue Congress needs used to share copyrighted music files or video clips—joined forces to decide iswhetherthe DMCA’scircumvention provisionsare, in- with the studios. The unhappy outcome was the Digital Millen- deed, still needed now that the job they were designed to do—pro- nium CopyrightAct(DMCA) of1998. To protectthe online industry tect DVDs from piracy—no longer exists. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Civilian drones 9

Data collected by drone are often more The robot overhead accurate than information gathered by other means. Fitted with two cameras for stereo vision, a drone called AeroHawk can map the dimensions and contours of a road at a resolution of about 2cm, says Scott McTavish, boss of a British Columbi- an firm called Accuas that surveys infra- Unmanned aircraft: After starting their career with the armed forces, drones structure. The best a commercial satellite are now entering civilian life—and creating concerns about safety can offer is about 30cm, but it could take more than four months to book one and T IS called an “airborne sidekick” by its ing from surveyors to utilities, delivery might cost at least $10,000, adds MrMcTav- ILatvian manufacturer, Helico Aerospace firms, news organisations and farms. ish. The aircraft-like AeroHawk does not Industries. But technically AirDog (pic- Businesses can save a lot of money need a runway. It is tossed into the air and tured above) is a flying robot, or drone. The with drones. Dillon Consulting, a Cana- recovered by parachute. brightly coloured four-rotor quadcopter dian company, hired one for about $7,000 Eight months ago Jean-Baptiste Brug- autonomously follows at a chosen altitude to survey a landfill site in Ontario. It reck- geman began flying a drone over his 210 its master, who wears a wireless tracking ons chartering a manned aeroplane or he- hectares of farmland in La Louptière-Thé- device on his wrist. AirDog is designed to licopter would have cost at least three nard, France. The robot’s multiple lenses use itsgyroscopicallystabilised video cam- times as much. GeoGIS Consultants, a firm photograph his fields from nine angles in era to take action shotsofskiers, bikers, kite in Belgrade, Serbia, maps landscapes with infrared, near infrared and visible wave- surfers and other sporting activities. It is lasers and other sensors for road and rail lengths. After the data are uploaded to a not the only “follow me” drone. IRIS+ (pic- construction. It bought a drone two years server, agronomists at Airinov, a Paris com- tured on the next page), made by 3D Robot- ago for around $31,000 and stopped using pany, analyse details such as the level of ics, a Californian firm, can also follow a manned aircraft. The drone’s cost was re- moisture in the topsoil, the chlorophyll flight path mapped on a smartphone. covered in just two months, says Tosa Nin- content ofthe crop and its biomass. Within Ready-to-fly drones are now available kov, the company’s owner. 48 hours Mr Bruggeman receives an elec- from around $1,000. Some have been de- tronic map with encoded instructions. veloped from radio-controlled model Cancel the helicopter When uploaded to his GPS-equipped trac- aeroplanes. But their ability at low cost to Drones can improve safety, adds Dillon’s tor, it automatically adjusts the spread of operate autonomouslycomesfrom the use John Fairs. Theyare increasinglyused to in- fertiliser to the optimal amount required of commodity electronics developed for spect wind turbines for cracks instead of for every part ofhis fields. consumer gadgets. Mobile phones, for in- workers kitted out with climbing gear. The benefits are enormous. Improving stance, contain a number of devices useful Drones are also being operated for power- fertiliser allocation boosts yields enough in making drones, such as gyroscopes, ac- line inspections. As this can involve lower- to earn Mr Bruggeman, per hectare, an ex- celerometers, wireless transmitters, signal ing from a helicopter engineers clad in in- tra €50 ($64) for rapeseed and up to €100 processors and GPS units. As a result the sulatingsuits and safety harnesses to crawl more for wheat. The wheat’s protein con- use of drones is spreading rapidly beyond along a pair of high-voltage cables strung tent is also higher. As less fertiliser is ap- their now familiar military roles. Civilian shoulder-width apart, it can be a “recipe plied, polluting run-off into streams is re- drones are being used by businesses rang- for disaster”, adds Mr Fairs. duced. Mr Bruggeman is now starting a 1 10 Civilian drones The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Agriculture will be the biggest beneficiary of drones. Japanese farmers have used drones to boost yields by about 15%

2 sideline to fly his drone for other farmers. tember 30th 2015 that will allow the flying cally approved—standing on the ground Airinov already analyses drone data for ofdrones forcommercial purposes. and keeping the drone in sight at all times. more than 2,000 French farmers, and ex- If the rules are reasonable more than Aviation authorities in other countries pects that to become 5,000 within a year. 70,000 jobs could be created within three are also working on rules, but many seem Besides surveying, drones can seed and years, says Mario Mairena, head ofgovern- more relaxed, provided basic safety proce- spray fields without compacting topsoil or ment relations for AUVSI. But many drone dures are followed. crushing plants. Large helicopter drones, advocates are gloomy and fear that the Some people in America are not wait- such as Yamaha’s petrol-powered RMAX, FAA is using safety concerns to protect pi- ing for the FAA. Robert Blair of Kendrick, fly lower than manned crop-dusting aero- lots’ jobs. There has been some heavy- Idaho, uses a drone made from an $85 planes, so lesspesticide iscarried off bythe handed action. An FAA policystatementin model aircraft to monitor his farm’s 607 wind. Rotorwash from the drone produces June forced dozens ofuniversities to cancel hectares. It allows him quickly to spot dis- a finer mist and shakes leaves to help cover engineering lessons that involved flying eases like wheat rust and with timely ac- their underside with spray. By one reckon- robots over campus lawns. The policy re- tion can cut pesticide use by two-thirds. He ing, this cuts in half the amount of liquid defines the aircraft the FAA can ground so says it is frustratingthat agricultural drones

that would otherwise be sprayed by trac- broadly it could include frisbees, laments are legally ﬂown in Argentina, Australia,

¦ ¤ tor. The RMAX is widely used in Australia, Pa¥oss, an aeronautics professor at Canada and elsewhere. More American Japan and South Korea. It is transported to Smith College in Massachusetts. farmers now flout the FAA’s ban, he says, fields in the back of a pickup truck, but The FAA even fined a man $10,000 for than the agency has resources to catch. costs a princely $125,000. flying a small styrofoam drone around a Nevertheless, there are risks. In Febru- ¤irginia campus for a promotional video. ary photojournalists at El Salvador’s big- Bug hunting (A judge overruled the fine but the agency gest daily, La Prensa Gráfica, began taking Two years ago an insect-borne citrus dis- has appealed.) The FAA rejects criticism of pictures and video with three Phantom 2 ease called huanglongbing began ruining “regulatory overreach”. The agency main- ¤ision+ quadcopters. Each cost roughly fruit and killing trees in southern Califor- tains that it is required to protect people $1,500 to import from DJI Innovations, a nia. Infected trees, which need to be cut and property from injury, and that it has a rapidly growing Chinese firm. Their aerial down and removed quickly to prevent the duty to ensure drones do not interfere with imagery boosted website clicks and em- disease from spreading, show a slight in- manned aviation. barrassed politicians who pledged to ease crease in temperature. This can be spotted There is concern that the rules for civil- traffic gridlock only to see bird’s-eye shots by a drone carrying a heat-detecting cam- ian drones could be onerous. Brendan ofsnarled-up roads. In April, however, one era which operates across a range of wave- Schulman ofKramer Levin Naftalis & Fran- of La Prensa Gráfica’s drones nearly struck lengths and costs less than $5,000, says kel, a New York law firm, says that the FAA a power line and fell into a crowd attend- Sindhuja Sankaran, a biologist at Washing- looks set to require even small drones to ing a parade. Luckily no one was injured. ton State University. undergo a costly certification process— Operators are trying to improve safety. Temperature rises are typical in many much like manned aircraft. He reckons reg- Drones often connect to a number of GPS diseased, parched or nutritionally defi- ulators will allow daylight flights only satellites, so records oftheir flight paths are cient crops. So drones could have a wider with two licensed operators—who, like usually precise. 3D Robotics has put online

role in keeping crops healthy. The Associa- commercial airline pilots, must be medi- a testversion ofa database to which the co-1

¡¡¢ tion for Unm ehicle Systems Inter- national (AUVSI) believes agriculture will be the biggest beneficiary of drones. Japa- nese farmers have used drones to boost yields by about 15%, the industry group says. It reckons the commercial benefits from drones for the American economy are worth more than $10 billion a year. But there is a problem in America. Fly- ing small drones as a leisure pursuit is allowed under Federal Aviation Administra- tion (FAA) guidelines used for model aircraft, which include staying below 120 metres, away from populated areas and having the craft in view at all times. But flying a drone for commercial purposes is largely banned and waivers are rare. It is not just farmers and surveyors who are af- fected, but also the film industry, which is keen to use them foraction shots. Lawmak- ers, frustrated to see some American firms move their drone operations to Canada, Mexico and other countries where regula- tions are less restrictive, have ordered the FAA to come up with a set of rules by Sep- DHL’s parcelcopter leaves for work The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Civilian drones 11

2 ordinates of flights will be uploaded from just the aircraft’s position but other data, dozens of manufacturers’ drones. Un- including its flight path. They also receive manned aircraft synchronised to the sys- similar co-ordinates from any nearby air- tem, called DroneShare, can then be in- craft. ADS-B is part of a new generation of structed to follow routes that have already air-traffic management being installed in been safely navigated and avoid danger America, Europe and elsewhere. spots (a flagpole, say). The ADS-B devices are light enough to Prudence is in order, says Sean Cassidy, be carried by many drones and more than head ofsafetyforthe AirLine Pilots Associ- 1,000 already have them, says Kelvin ation, International. He points to the US Scribner, boss of Sagetech, a firm in Wash- Airways plane that ditched safely on the ington state that sells an ADS-B device Hudson River in New York in 2009 after its weighing a shade less than an iPhone. engines ingested geese, which are the size Even smaller versions are said to be on the of some small drones. Software can help way. ADS-B technology could be used to prevent that by automatically reining in automate the management of both drones if they venture too far or too high, manned aircraft and drones flying in the says Josh Brookes-Allen, founder ofAlpha- same area of sky. Eventually it will form flightAerospace, an operatorofcinematog- the backbone ofdrone safety, reckons Ben- raphy drones in Sydney, Australia. An AeroHawk in launch mode jamin Trapnell, head of the University of

NASA, America’s space agency, is build- North Dakota’s aviation department.

ing an air-traffic-control system for drones. c §alley firm hired to design the system, One problem is that GPS signals might Operators will log on to a website and re- is working out a way to prevent the loss of be jammed, deliberately or inadvertently. serve blocks ofairspace forflights. An early a $5,000 drone in a distant treetop. Al- Illegal jammers the size of a cigarette pack version of the system is expected online though guided by GPS, the drones relay are widely sold for about $25 in eastern Eu- shortly. Flights will be forbidden near air- flight data to their base through transmis- rope to truck drivers disinclined to be ports and capped at an altitude of about sion towers for mobile phones. A drone tracked by their boss, says James Scanlan 120 metres. Thatleavesenough airspace for struggling in a headwind can therefore be of the University of Southampton in Brit- what Accenture, a consultancy, considers called backbefore its battery peters out. ain. His team are designing directional GPS to be the most complexmission forcivilian Pallets of cargo could be hauled with antennae which are unlikely to be mud- drones—automated delivery. big drones the size of some manned air- dled by such interference. If a problem Amazon says that a drone-delivery ser- craft. With no on-board pilot or crew, the were to arise, he says, on-board gyroscopes vice called Prime Air that it has tested in aircraft would hold more and weigh less. and accelerometers would be able to work Canada will be ready by early 2015, assum- Simply building an aircraft with thinner out a drone’s approximate position. ing the FAA ban is lifted. Following recent walls for unpressurised flight reduces its et risks go beyond accidents. It would testing in Australia, Google has also deter- weight by a tenth, says Hans Heerkens of not be difficult to rig a drone with a weap- mined that deliveries with self-flying vehi- Twente University in the Netherlands. He on or small bomb, so terrorism needs to be cles are practical, says Phil Swinsburg of leads Platform Unmanned Cargo Aircraft, guarded against. And there may be no fool- Unmanned Systems Australia, a firm a group of more than 30 university and in- proof way to prevent a drone from being working on Project Wing, as the Google dustry experts working on the concept. wirelessly hijacked, says Gerald Dilling- drone effort is known. ham, a former member of America’s 9/11 DHL, a logistics giant based in Ger- Filing a flight plan Commission. “Spoofing”, as this is called, many, has already begun to deliver medi- If drones are to fly in the same airspace is possible because GPS signals are typical- cine by a “parcelcopter” drone (pictured on used by manned aircraft, more collision- ly unencrypted, adds Mr Dillingham, now previous page) to Juist, a small island in the avoidance technology is needed. Passen- head of aviation for the Government Ac- North Sea. An Australian startup called ger aircraft carry transponders that relay countability Office, a watchdog agency of Flirtey expects to begin delivering books their position to ground radar. But an air- America’s Congress. with six-rotor hexacopters before the end craft-type transponder would be too Drones also give paparazzi and activists of the year. Delivery will cost more than heavy for many small drones to carry, and new scope. Last year People for the Ethical sendingthe books in a van, at least initially. with plastic or styrofoam airframes they Treatment of Animals launched a pro- But it will be faster—Flirtey’s drones fly might not be detected with radar. gramme called “Air Angels” in America us- about 80km per hour (50mph) and pay no Some drone developers propose using ing drones to record people hunting ani- heed to traffic lights. Parcels are lowered cameras with object-recognition proces- mals in cruel or illegal ways. Describing from above to recipients. Matt Sweeny, the sors to prevent collisions. But cameras can- anti-hunting activists’ drones as “rude, in- firm’s chiefexecutive, is also talking to fast- not see through clouds and could be con- vasive, annoying, distracting”, Cindy Neel, food chains about drone delivery. fused by a bugsplat on the lens, says Mykel manager of the Wing Pointe reserve in Even in an all-terrain vehicle, a 150km Kochenderfer, an aeronautics expert at Pennsylvania, says customers on a pigeon slog on muddy roads in Papua New Gui- Stanford University. shoot blasted one activist’s drone out of nea can take a day. With tuberculosis A more promising approach is offered the sky. The commercial lure of drones is a spreading, Médecins Sans Frontières, a by small on-board GPS-based devices that powerful incentive for a new industry to French charity, would rather airlift saliva are part of a system called Automatic De- get airborne, but without sensible safety samples by drone from jungle collection pendent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). and other procedures there will be stormy centres to diagnostic labs. Matternet, a Sili- These devices repeatedly broadcast not skies ahead to navigate. 7 12 Grid-scale energy storage The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014

this is installed around the world, with a capacity of 1.4TWhr. Pumped storage re-

Smooth operators

quires friendly geography ou need two reservoirs separated by a good gap of altitude. But it is then just a matter of linking them with pipes and using turbines that, if turned byfallingwater, generate electricity, N OCTOBER 28th a battery factory but, when fed electricity, turn the other Oopened in Concord, North Carolina. way to pump that water whence it came. That was good for an area which has seen Electricity grids: Matching output to Send it uphill when poweris cheap, and let dark economic times, but the event made demand is hard with wind and solar it flow down when there are spikes in de- few headlines. Perhaps it should have power. The answer is to store surplus mand, and you have a nice little business. made more, though, for this factory’s own- juice on the grid until it is needed Not everywhere, though, has compli- er, Alevo, a Swiss company, is not in the ant hills and valleys. And pumped storage business of manufacturing cells for more irksome. It is not just the great power- takes a long time, and a lot of money, to torches, mobile phones or even laptop gap that is night which matters. As the build. Technologies that start small, but computers. Rather, it is making batteries chart below shows, even during the day— can be scaled up as needed, are often a bet- that can store serious amounts of electric- and even in deserts—the amount of sun- ter answer. ity—megawatt-hours of it. And it plans to light can vary from minute to minute. And sell them to power-grid operators. the wind, ofcourse, is equally fickle. Batteries now included To start with, the new batteries will be Cheap grid-scale storage would over- The immediate future ofgrid-scale storage, used to smooth the consequences of irreg- come these irregularities. Renewables then, probably lies with real batteries rath- ulardemand through the daybyabsorbing could then compete on cost alone. And er than topographical ones. At least, Alevo electricityduringtroughsand regurgitating there are many ideas for how to make this thinks so. At full capacity, the firm’s factory it duringpeaks. Ifthat pans out, it will elim- happen. Some, such as Alevo’s, are ready in Concord should be able to turn out inate the need for gas-powered “peaker” to be sold. Others work in laboratories but 16.2GWhr-worth of them a year. And stations which fire up quickly when need- have yet to be scaled up for use in the real Alevo is not alone. Tesla is building an ed, but are expensive to run. It would also world. Others still are little more than even bigger factory near Reno, Nevada (see allow non-peaker stations to operate more twinkles of varying plausibility in their in- page 17) to make batteries for its electric efficiently. Alevo reckons that if a grid as ventors’ eyes. But if even one of them is up cars and for local and grid storage. big as America’s Western interconnection to the task, then renewable energy may, at Several stationsthatuse batteries to reg- (which supplies the west of the United last, be able to stand on itsown, rather than ulate the output of wind farms have al- States and Canada) were to use 18GW- having to be subsidised and regulated into ready been built, or are under construc- worth of its batteries the grid could save existence. tion. In Sendai, Japan, Toshiba is creating $12 billion a year. Though the company has At the moment, grid-scale storage is one based on lithium-ion batteries. This no North American contract yet, it does dominated by pumped hydro. According should open in 2015. It will have a maxi- have an agreement to deploy its batteries to the Electric Power Research Institute, an mum power of 40MW, and will be able to in Guangdong, China. American think-tank, 140GW-worth of run at that rate for half an hour. The No-1 Smoothing the operation of existing grids, however, maybe onlythe beginning. In the longer run, optimists believe, batteries like these, or some equivalent technology, are the key to dealing with the problem not just of irregular demand, but of irregular supply. As the unit cost of solar and wind energy drops ever closer to that of power from fossil fuels, the fact that the wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine becomes more and The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Grid-scale energy storage 13

2 trees Battery Storage Project, which still pricey. Indeed, Alevo’s claim that its Unfortunately, vanadium is expensive. opened in Texas in 2013, uses lead-acid bat- batteries can undergo more than 40,000 But systems that use cheaper materials are teries—sophisticated versions of the type cycles ofchargingand dischargingwithout being developed. Several firms are trying found in petrol and diesel cars. It has a noticeable loss of function is an important zinc and bromine in electrolytes and oth- maximum power of 36MW and could run part ofits sales pitch. ersiron and chromium. Ideasstill in the lab for40 minutes at full tilt. AnotherJapanese An alternative approach, known as a include flow batteries based on cheap or- project, of 34MW, in Rokkasho, uses sodi- flow battery, does not suffer from this diffi- ganic compounds called anthraquinones. um-sulphur batteries. And one in Alaska, culty. Aflow battery’s energy is stored in its If these prove robust enough to commer- of27MW, uses nickel-cadmium ones. electrolytes (of which there are two, sepa- cialise, they will be strong competitors in As that list suggests, many types ofgrid- rated by a membrane), rather than its elec- the grid-scale storage market. But they will scale battery technology are available. trodes (see illustration 1). Not only does not be alone. For batteries are not the only Alevo uses electrodes made oflithium iron that stop the electrodes wearing out, it also route to the destination. phosphate and graphite. These are con- means that there is no upper limit, based nected by an inorganic sulphur-based elec- on the sizes of those electrodes, on how Pumped up trolyte, a combination, the firm claims, that much energy such a battery can store. Its Ifthe engineers at Gravity Powerin Goleta, is particularly propitious because cycling capacity depends instead on the size of the California, get their way, even pumped between charged and discharged states tanks used to hold the electrolytes. storage is in line for a makeover. Their ap- produces only a 1°C change in the battery’s Flow batteries are a much less devel- proach, it should be said from the outset, is temperature. This should eliminate the oped technology than standard batteries, one of the most twinkly of the twinkling risk of overheating, to which some sorts of buttheyare beginningto become commer- eyes in the field. Even if it ultimately fails it lithium-based cells are prone. cially available. Many of those on sale at shows the originality of thought that is be- There are types of battery that actually the moment(byfirmssuch asGildemeister ing brought to bear on the problem.

require high temperatures to work. In sodi- of Germany and UET of Washington state) Instead of two large reservoirs at diﬀer-

um-sulphur cells of the sort deployed at use vanadium-based electrolyt anadi- ent altitudes on a hillside, Gravity Power Rokkasho both of those elements need to um is a good material because its multiple proposes two water-filled cylindrical be liquid, meaning the battery has to be ionic states mean it can be used to store en- shafts—one wider than the other—dug into maintained at a temperature of 300-350°C. ergy without having to involve other re- the ground (see illustration 2 on next page). And an approach being developed by Do- agents, and thus complicate the design. The shafts will be linked top and bottom to nald Sadoway of the Massachusetts Insti- form a circuit, with a combined pump-tur- tute of Technology would use two sorts of bine, similar to the ones used in conven- liquid metal, separated by a liquid electro- tional pumped storage, in the upper link. lyte. The clever thing about this design is The wider shaft will contain a huge cylin- that, by picking a dense metal such as a der, made either of the rock the shaft is cut mixture of antimony and lead, a light one through or ofconcrete, to act as a piston. such as lithium, and an electrolyte whose When the pump-turbine is opened, the density falls between the two, the three piston sinks, driving water around the cir- substances will float as separate layers in a cuit and through the turbine, generating container, ratherasoil separatesfrom vine- power. Spin the device the otherway using gar in a salad dressing. electricity, and the reversed water flow Despite their superficial differences, pushes the piston up again. one thing all these batteries have in com- How much energy this arrangement mon is that the energy they contain is can store depends on how deep the shafts stored chemically within their electrodes. go. And that is where it gets tricky, for some This has a consequence, at least for those serious civil engineering will be needed if with solid electrodes. The constant change the idea is to work. Gravity Power pro- in the electrodes’ composition as they are poses the shafts descend hundreds of me- charged and discharged gradually wears tres. This will require large thicknesses of them out. This limited lifespan is one rea- suitable rock—in practice thiswill probably son using batteries for grid-scale storage is be limestone, which is soft enough to cut1 14 Grid-scale energy storage The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 The world would no doubt be a better place if the externalities imposed by fossil fuels were properly accounted for in the price of electricity

2 into—so deployment will be limited not so nology being developed, does not rely on much by geography as geology. And mak- that technology being developed specifi- ing a good seal between piston and shaft cally forgrid-scale storage. This is to use the will hardly be trivial. So it will be expen- fleet of electric cars that its proposers hope sive. A unit 700 metres deep, with a main will take over from ones driven by inter- shaft26 metresacrossand a return shaft (or nal-combustion engines over the course of penstock) of about a tenth of that, would the next couple ofdecades. cost $170m. It would, though, be able to In the imaginations of such people, the store about 200MWhr of energy, with an batteriesofthese cars(which would, when output of 50MW. Building one that size is idle, be attached to the grid in order to yearsaway, butthe firm hopesto start work charge them), could be employed asa giant in 2015 on a demonstration plant near storage network, to be plundered with the Penzberg, in Germany, with a depth of 140 car owners’ permission at times of peak metres, a capacity of500 kWhrand an out- demand. It is an intriguing thought—but put of1MW. the overlap between those times and the Nor is Gravity Power’s approach the times cars are most likely to be on the road only one to rely on underground spaces might scupper it in practice. As might the and friendly geology. Another is to fill a answer to the question about how ubiqui- subterranean cavern with compressed air. tous electric cars will actually become. For Forthat, the cavern needs to be hermetical- that will depend on the future success and ly sealed and this means using an under- affordability ofbatteries. ground salt dome that has been hollowed The path from startup to success is lit- out by solution mining (ie, the salt has tered with corpses, and an awful lot of been extracted with hot water). business models depend for their putative Given such a cavern, compressed-air cess, get rid ofthe compressed air, and con- profit on what is, accordingto yourpoint of storage is a bit like classical pumped stor- centrate on sequestering the heat itself. view, either a subsidy or a factoring in of age, except with a gas, rather than a liquid. Isentropic, a company in Fareham, Britain, the economic externalities (in the form of Air is pumped into the cavern, increasing plans to employ the compression and ex- climate change) imposed by fossil fuels. In its pressure, and then let out to drive a tur- pansion of a gas (in this case, argon) to particular, Germany’s Energiewende and bine. But there is a catch: gases heat up create heat and cold respectively in two California’s Renewable Energy Pro- when compressed and cool when they ex- large containers of gravel—one of the gramme have, by requiring a large fraction pand. For compressed-air storage to work, cheapest solid heat-storage media imagin- of those jurisdictions’ electricity to be re- therefore, the air released from the cavern able. Once again, a pump-turbine is in- newable, helped fuel the boom. has to be heated (usually by burning natu- volved. It does the compression and ex- ral gas), otherwise it would freeze the tur- pansion when electricity is abundant, and Yourbill, sir bine. That makes compressed-air storage when it is scarce the gas flow, and thus the The world would no doubt be a better inefficient—one reason there are only two heat flow and therefore the whole process, place if the externalities imposed by fossil grid-scale examples of it in the world (one is reversed. fuels were properly accounted for in the in Germany, the other in Alabama). Nor are these ideas the end of the list. price of electricity. But that is a hard sell, This would change if the heat of com- Several firms, from giants such as ABB of not least because of disagreements about pression could be captured, stored and re- Zurich, to minnows such as Berkeley Ener- those externalities’ true size. In the mean- cycled. And that is the goal of LightSail En- gy Sciences, a neighbour of LightSail, are time, it is better if grid-scale storage can be ergy, a firm based in Berkeley, California. pushing giant flywheels as at least part of rolled out without taxpayer support. LightSail has developed a small, but still the answer. Another suggestion—for filling That is the main reason for watching grid-scale, compressed-air system that in the shortest irregularities in supply, the example of Alevo. It says it can make sprays water into the compression cham- those lasting a few seconds or minutes money even in unsubsidised grids, be- ber, to cool the air as its volume shrinks. such as are caused by the passage of a cause it has been ruthless about reducing The airisthen stored in a setoftanks with a cloud in front of the sun—is to use superca- manufacturing costs and simplifying the total volume of 42,000 litres, and the wa- pacitors, which store electricity as an actu- technology as faras possible. ter, with its heat load, is put into two tanks al electric charge, rather than converting it This is a businesslike approach. If it that have, in total, about a quarter of the into chemical or physical potential energy works, and others prove able to mimic it, volume ofthe air tanks. of a non-electric form. At the other end of then the costofrunninga grid, and thus the At the moment, this device can store the scale as faras the size of the gap in sup- price of electricity, will fall. That alone will 700kWhr of energy, but that should rise to ply is concerned, namely the nocturnal be a good thing. But success will change 1.1MWhr when (as is the plan) it is pressur- hours when solar energy cannot operate, the verynature ofsuch a grid, enabling itto ised to 300 atmospheres instead ofthe cur- several research groups are trying to use absorb more wind and solar power even if rent 200. That is a fraction more than one molten salts (usually sodium and potassi- this is a consequence unintended by the of Alevo’s battery packs, which store um nitrates) to store heat gathered during grid owners. How much more is yet un- 1MWhr. For comparison, the Alabama salt the day and then, at night, raise steam for known, for fossil fuels (particularly natural dome can store 2.9GWhr. generators with it. gas) are getting cheaper too. But renew- If heat is to be stored at scale some in- And there is one further idea around ables will no longer be fighting the battle ventors would prefer to simplify the pro- that, though it relies on new storage tech- with one hand tied behind their back. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 High-tech cinemas 15

and resolutions that might finally ap- The next picture show proach those offilm. The lasers are not fired directly at the screen, as in some planetaria, but con- tained entirely within a digital cinema projector. At the heart of these machines are spatial light modulator chips, usually based on digital micromirror devices. The Film projection: Laser-illuminated cinema projectors promise brighter and chips, which are just a few centimetres more realistic images across, contain up to 2m aluminium mir- rors that can be individually controlled to HEN Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi projectors fade over time. They can lose reflect incident light. Each one corresponds Wblockbuster “Interstellar” opened in half their brightness in just a few hundred to one pixel of resolution, and a projected America in November, he insisted that cin- hours and cost $1,500 each to replace. image is built up by combining beams of emas equipped with traditional film pro- Things get murkier faster if a film is pro- primary red, green and blue light from jectors, rather than their digital successors, jected in three dimensions. By definition, three modulator chips. could show it two days early. Fellow direc- stereoscopic 3D films show a different im- In a traditional digital projector, a high- tor Quentin Tarantino has gone further, age to viewers’ left and right eyes, thus cut- pressure xenon arc lamp illuminates the promisingthe biggest 70mm film release in ting a projector’s apparent brightness in chips. Even without their tendency to fade, two decades for his next Western, and half. Polarisingfilters, used in most 3D cine- arclampsare lessthan ideal. Theygenerate damningdigital projection as “the death of mas, halve that again. The glasses worn by light in all directions and overa wide range cinema as I know it”. the audience take a fifth of what’s left. Pity offrequencies, so a series ofprisms and fil- It would be easy to dismiss such prot- the unlucky patron who watches a 3D film ters is needed to split it into red, green and ests as petulant nostalgia for some half- at the end of a projector’s lamp life: he blue, and to direct those beams onto the imagined golden age of celluloid. After all, might see just a tenth of the intended micromirrors. Arc lamps can only be made over 80% of the world’s 135,000 cinema brightness. Little wonder, then, that 3D brighter by making them bigger, which screens have converted to digital projec- films have earned a reputation fordimness makes the light harder to control. The best tion (nearly 95% in movie-mad America), and causing eyestrain. Nearly three quar- xenon projector lamps today typically of- even as global box office takings topped ters of people opted for the 3D version of a fer around 30,000 lumens ofbrightness. $35 billion for the first time in 2013. Unlike film in 2008. Less than 40% do today. Illuminating the same chips with lasers film prints which rapidly acquire eliminates many of these problems. Laser scratches, pops and burn marks, digitally A brilliant idea diodes are small, semiconductor devices stored and projected films look and sound One possible solution involves that cine- that turn electricity directly into laser light. as good after 100, or 1,000, showings as matic staple: laser beams. Rather than be- They generate very narrow wavelengths, they did on their premiere night. ing attached to a shark’s head, used to in- so there is little excess light or heat, and last But Mr Nolan and Mr Tarantino have a timidate an immobilised secret agent or for tens of thousands of hours. Their uni- point. Digital projectors cannot match the vaporise a rebel planet, these lasers are form light is easy to workwith. sheerdetail ofa pristine 35mm print, norits kept safely in the projection booth. Laser- The first commercial laser cinema pro- rich contrast between the deepest shad- illuminated projectors cannot only deliver jectors contain hundreds of tiny laser ows and brightest highlights. And al- brilliantly bright images, in either 2D or 3D, diodes and offer around twice the bright- though a digital file itselfdoes not degrade, but also promise better contrast, more nat- ness (60,000 lumens) of xenon-based pro- the xenon arc lamps that illuminate digital ural colours, ultra-realistic high frame rates jectors, while consuming only about half 1 16 High-tech cinemas The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Laser-illuminated projectors have more to offer than just improved 3D

2 as much electricity. However, even dou- and projector manufacturers offered cine- for Barco, a projector manufacturer. “Get- bling the brightness of existing 3D systems ma owners a subsidy. With no suggestion tingall the constituents togetherand agree- would leave many films looking dull and of a similar scheme for the much pricier ing standards is what takes the time.” gloomy. Handily, lasers also enable a more upgrade to lasers, it is likely that cinemas In 2002 Hollywood’s seven major film advanced type of3D operation. (and customers) will have to foot the bill. studios set up a joint venture called Digital Most of today’s 3D projectors have a fil- And yet a few laser systems are already Cinema Initiatives (DCI) to establish stan- ter that alternates rapidly between left- being installed. In November the Cine- dards for everyone from film-makers to and right-handed circular polarisation, rama cinema in Seattle unveiled the coun- cinema proprietors. It was sluggish to get synchronised to scenes shot from slightly try’s first laser-illuminated projector, a going, taking years to issue its first specifi- different perspectives. The viewer, wear- dual projector made by Christie, an Ameri- cation, and generally trails developments. ing spectacles with lenses of opposing po- can manufacturer, as part of a multi-mil- This summer, DCI insisted that laser pro- larity, sees only the correct scene in each lion dollar refit. Ryan Hufford, a systems jectors continue to conform to existing eye and thus perceives a 3D image. engineer at Cinerama’s parent company standards, limiting improvements to reso- An alternative 3D system relies on the ulcan, would not comment on the fi- lution, colour and frame rates, while it human eye being easily fooled. People of- nances, saying only: “We work for [ex-Mi- works on updating its specifications again. ten perceive colours to be identical that are crosoft billionaire] Paul Allen. He has Without properly encoded and encrypted in fact composed of subtly different wave- charged us always to be looking for the movie files from the studios, even the most lengths of light. These colours are called high-tech directors will not be able to get metamers. Metameric, or colour separa- their workin front ofan audience. tion, 3D uses distinct bands of red, green Mr Beck suspects that cinemas keen to and blue light to make up the scene des- start defraying the cost of their projectors tined for each eye. Spectacles using special might not be prepared to wait. Some, he colour-filtering dichroic lenses then allow believes, will go ahead. “But until Holly- only the correct image to be seen. wood says what the colour gamut, the Extracting the six different colours nec- frame rate and the dynamic range are go- essary for metameric 3D from a xenon ing to be, and then supports that with pro- lamp’s broad spectrum is tricky. Like polar- duction versions of their movies, it’s just isation, it involves filtering out most of the going to be technology testing.” useful light to keep the small portion that is needed. Lasers, on the other hand, can be Hobbits ahead tuned to emit only the wavelengths need- Even if all the benefits of laser projection ed. This means that almost all of the light can be realised, there is no guarantee that they generate ends up on the screen, help- audiences will appreciate them. The late ing high resolution 3D films look every bit Roger Ebert, a noted critic who worked for as bright as their 2D brethren. the Chicago Sun-Times, loathed 3D films for Laser-illuminated projectorshave more many artistic and practical reasons, only to offer than just improved 3D. They can re- one of which was that they were too dim. produce up to 60% ofthe colours that most And the reception ofa subsequent innova- people can perceive, compared with 40% tion has, ifanything, been worse. When di- forxenon projectors, and with much better rectorPeterJackson released the first instal- contrast. They can also project films at Peter Jackson ups the rate ment of his Hobbit film trilogy in 2012, it higher rates than the traditional 24 frames was available at two frame rates: 24 FPS per second (FPS), allowing crisper depic- newest, most innovative technology.” and 48 FPS. Some critics loved the high tion offast-moving action. Ultimately, they A few other high-end cinemas with frame rate, others thought it overblown, ar- should pack more detail into each frame deep pockets have signed up, notably the tificial or looking as though the film was and rival the best film stock. IMAX chain, whose staple 70mm film pro- shot on cheap videotape. The only other Laser projectors are not without pro- jectorsare nowratherdated. Butthere isno 48 FPS releases since then have been the re- blems. Early ones suffered from a phenom- sign of a mass shift to lasers. The obstacles maining Hobbit films, although James enon called speckle, an ugly visual effect are not purely financial. At the moment, Cameron is said to be considering high produced by waves of the same frequency special licences must be obtained from the rates forsequels to the sci-fi epic “Avatar”. interfering with each other. Lasers are also Food and Drug Administration, which im- Mr Ebert once said, “Whenever Holly- expensive. A xenon-based projector might poses additional requirements on staff. wood has felt threatened, it has turned to cost $60,000 but a first-generation laser Even more frustrating for cinema own- technology.” In an age of mobile devices, projector can run to $500,000. Even with ers is that some of the touted benefits may streaming video and infinite choice, it is savings in electricity and replacement not arrive for years, if at all. Larger hard easy to see the appeal of a technology, lamps, the new set-ups still cost between drives will be needed to store the addition- however expensive, that promises to ac- two and four times as much. al data that comes with higher resolutions centuate the differences between immer- The switch from film to digital projec- and frame rates, for one thing. But the big- sive, experiential cinema and watching a tion primarily benefited distributors, who gest barriers are probably not technical. film on a tablet. But ifwe have learned one no longer had to produce tens of thou- “The chips will look after themselves,” thing about lasers from the silver screen, it sands of reels of 35mm film at around says Bill Beck, a long-time proponent of la- is that they can be very dangerous in the $1,000 each. To boostdemand, distributors ser-illuminated projection now working wrong hands. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014 Brain scan 17 Tesla’s electric man

tery supplier. By 2020 the gigafactory is set to produce as many Li-ion batteries as the JB Straubel is charged with more entire world used this year. than electrifying the Californian The determination to act boldly and carmaker. He wants to take batteries independently has worked for Mr Straubel to a new dimension in the past. When researching a charging system for the Model S he rejected existing UT your footdown in a Tesla Model S industry standards because they delivered Pand the experience is rather diﬀerent to too little power. And instead ofwaiting for other cars. The usual exhaust roar is re- an agreement with other carmakers for a placed by a hushed whooshing sound as universal recharging plug, he designed his the car accelerates rapidly—and relentless- own proprietary connector. The com- ly—thanks to the high torque ofan electric pany’s Superchargers, which provide free motor making gear changes unnecessary recharging in public locations to Tesla because there is no gearbox. And inside, owners, can top up a battery to about 80% instead ofmultiple dials and switches, a ofcapacity in 40 minutes. These now large touchscreen dominates the centre comprise the largest fast-charging network console. Established carmakers have in the world. tended to make modest electric vehicles, Mr Straubel also takes a diﬀerent view usually small ones to eke out the range on the batteries themselves. Whereas

available from their pricey batteries. But it most manufacturers ofelectric vehicles

was Tesla, a Silic alley startup, which have opted for large-format batteries, both realised that many early adopters ofnew the Model S and its predecessor, the Tesla technologies are likely to be well heeled Roadster, are powered by around 7,000 and would prefer a large high-perfor- individual Li-ion cells. The Roadster’s mance saloon that is both luxurious and were originally the standard Li-ion cells extremely high-tech. widely used in industry and found in Why did Tesla act differently? For a devices such as laptop computers. For the start, it does not thinkofitselfas a carmak- Model S, however, the cells have been er. “I see us more as an energy-innovation significantly redesigned. Mounted inside a company,” says Jeffrey “JB” Straubel, the battery pack, the cells are interconnected firm’s chieftechnology officer, and one of and interwoven with liquid cooling sys- the co-founders ofTesla, along with Elon tems to prevent fires in the event of an Musk, the chiefexecutive. “Ifwe can accident (damage resulting in short cir- reduce energy-storage prices, it’s the most cuits and faulty charging can cause Li-ion important thing we can do to make elec- batteries to burst into flame). tric vehicles more prevalent,” says Mr Straubel. “Add in renewable power and I The electric Porsche have a direct line ofsight towards an entire Teslas were always going to be unique. Mr economy that doesn’t need fossil fuels and Straubel, who is 38, made his first full-sized doesn’t need to pay more to do it.” electric vehicle 14 years ago (a golfcart Mr Straubel’s captivation with energy which he resurrected at the age of14 storage is understandable. He is cagey doesn’t count). This was a 1984 Porsche 944 about the exact cost ofthe lithium-ion fitted with twin electric motors and 380kg (Li-ion) battery packpowering the Model ofold-fashioned lead-acid batteries: a S, but it is believed to represent around a weighty proposition, but one that went on quarter ofthe $70,000 starting price of the to become the fastest electric car in the basic version. A smaller car, the Model 3, is world at a drag-racing event in California. due in 2017. Although the new car will “I love immersive experiences where have some self-driving features like the you’re engaged with the thing that you’re Model S, it is aimed more at the mass- engineering. Ifyou are driving, riding or market. But to hit the Model 3’s expected flying it, it’s even more exciting and fun,” price ofaround $35,000, Mr Straubel now says Mr Straubel, who holds a private needs to reduce the cost ofhis battery pilot’s licence. After graduating with a packs by at least a third. master’s degree in energy engineering The best way to do that and to meet from Stanford University, he worked with expected demand, Mr Straubel believes, is Harold Rosen (the designer ofthe first for Tesla to make its own batteries. And to geosynchronous satellite) on a novel make them big time. This is why he and hybrid-drive system for cars. This used a Mr Muskare gambling on building a $5 turbine to generate electricity and a fast- billion “gigafactory” in Nevada in a joint moving flywheel to store and release venture with Panasonic, a Japanese bat- kinetic energy when needed. Although 1 18 Brain scan The Economist Technology Quarterly December 6th 2014

“One lunch was the beginning of what eventually became Tesla”

2 the innovative combination worked, it has predicted that the gigafactory will this will allow new electrically powered was a leap too far forconservative carmak- bring about only a modest cut in battery products to be produced, reckons Mr ers, which declined to invest in it. Nev- costs and suffer more than 50% overcapac- Straubel, returning to another ofhis in- ertheless, the pair licensed the technology ity. “Most other companies do not believe terests: “In the foreseeable future, electric to a company that makes flywheels for that battery volume will grow as fast as it’s aeroplanes become an interesting and commercial vehicles. Mr Straubel and Mr going to,” Mr Straubel counters. “They pretty compelling proposition.” A variety Rosen went on to build a hydrogen-pow- don’t understand the tight linkage be- ofsmall electric aircraft have been built in ered electric engine for aircraft, which was tween cost and volume. We’re at this America, China and Europe. Airbus re- subsequently licensed to Boeing. crossing-point where a small reduction in cently set up a subsidiary in France to It was then that Mr Straubel met Mr cost is going to result in a ridiculously big build a two-seater pilot-training aircraft Musk, a freshly minted multimillionaire increase in volume, because the auto called the E-Fan. It is powered by electric from the sale ofhis PayPal digital-pay- industry is so big.” motors driving a pair ofducted fans on ments company to eBay. “One lunch was Not all the cells made by the gigafac- either side ofthe rear fuselage. The Euro- the beginning ofwhat eventually became tory are destined for vehicles. Some will pean aerospace giant is also looking at the Tesla,” says Mr Straubel. “We spent most end up in the company’s Superchargers, potential ofbuilding an electric helicopter ofthe meal talking about electric aero- allowing Tesla to cope with sudden bursts and a 90-seat electrically powered pas- planes. But as we were wrapping up, I said ofdemand should multiple vehicles need senger plane for short journeys. I was working on a fun crazy project with to recharge at once. Others will be used at A number ofdevelopments are under cars, trying to build a lithium-ion battery Tesla’s assembly plants to store energy way which have the potential to boost the packthat could last1,000 miles.” when it is cheap, typically at night, and amount ofenergy a battery can store. For That dream is still some way off. The release it when the price rises. instance, a team at Stanford University is Model 3 is likely to have a range of322km investigating enclosing the lithium-based (200 miles) compared with the 440km Keeping the lights on anodes used by Li-ion batteries in a thin claimed for a top-of-the-line Model S. But The use ofbatteries to store renewable film ofcarbon “nanospheres”. This would with Tesla intending to sell ten times as power (see TQ cover story) may provide allow more lithium to be used safely in the many Model 3s, the need for a reliable Tesla with its biggest opportunity in the anode (it is lithium’s high chemical re- battery supplier is paramount. Hence the years ahead. The potential is huge, says Mr activity that puts the batteries at risk of gigafactory. Tesla will have to innovate in Straubel. “The economics in many cases catching fire). The coating, researchers battery chemistry and manufacturing have already crossed a threshold where think, would allow a Li-ion battery to hold techniques even as it ramps up produc- battery packs can effectively store renew- about five times as much energy as those tion. Although the new cells are likely to ables on a very big scale.” The main pro- used today, weight-for-weight. remain small, their exact specifications are blem with renewable-power sources, such Such innovations are still at the labora- still undecided. as wind or solar, is that the wind does not tory stage and remain some way from Mr Straubel insists that this strategy is always blow or the sun shine when de- commercial reality. In time, perhaps, even less risky than it might seem. He notes that mand for electricity is high. This requires lithium may be replaced by more exotic Model S cells today are produced on utility companies to maintain additional new materials in batteries. “No one wish- equipment very similar to that used for power stations, usually running on fossil es we could come up with a technology the Roadster cells almost ten years ago, fuels, to meet the shortfall. Batteries, how- that makes today’s chemistry obsolete even though the energy from the cells has ever, could store the power from renew- more than me,” says Mr Straubel. “We increased by halfand their chemistry has ables when it is generated and release it could sell more cars at a lower price. But changed substantially. The Roadster cells when needed. we’re not waiting.” 7 used cobalt oxide as a cathode whereas Around 1,000 households in California the Model S uses a nickel-cobalt-alumi- already have a Tesla battery packinstalled Offer to readers nium oxide. The difference, says Mr Strau- alongside photovoltaic panels leased from Reprints of Technology Quarterly are available bel, is a much improved energy density, a Solar City, another company owned by Mr from the Rights and Syndication Department. longer lifetime and a higher operating Musk. The battery packs allow household- A minimum order of five copies is required. temperature (which means less cooling is ers to run appliances ifthe power goes out required). Besides the chemistry, Tesla is or switch when electricity prices are high. Corporate offer also developing other new features for the But they are also designed to maximise Customisation options on corporate orders of batteries. the return from “net metering” rules that 100 or more are available. Please contact us to discuss your requirements. The idea is that, benefiting from econo- allow residential customers to sell excess For more information on how to order special mies ofscale, the gigafactory’s cells will be energy to utilities. reports, reprints or any queries you may have significantly cheaper than those from Tesla’s residential batteries have been please contact: more established manufacturers. “Over plagued by interconnection problems the next ten years, it’s going to change to with utilities and are not being adopted as The Rights and Syndication Department the point where we’re focused on produc- swiftly as Mr Straubel had hoped. “Util- The Economist 20 Cabot Square tion to meet the world’s energy-storage ities tend to be very conservative by na- London E14 4QW needs rather than waiting for a cost reduc- ture,” he says. Nevertheless, Mr Straubel Tel +44 (0)20 7576 8148 tion from a radical change in battery tech- thinks that favourable economics will Fax +44 (0)20 7576 8492 nology,” says Mr Straubel. persuade utilities ofthe benefits. e-mail: [email protected] Not everyone agrees. A report by Lux As batteries improve in terms ofsafety www.economist.com/rights Research, a firm oftechnology analysts, and the amount ofenergy they can store,