JERRY F. FRANKLIN JAMES K. AGEE Forging a Science-Based National Fire Policy

A comprehensive policy should consider all Large, intense forest fires, along aspects of dicates that, in many North Amer- with their causes and their conse- ican , accumulations of quences, have become important management, not fuels have reached levels far ex- political and social issues. In the just fuels and fire ceeding those found under “natu- United States, however, there is no ral” or pre-European settlement comprehensive policy to deal with suppression. conditions. These fuel accumula- fire and fuels and few indications tions result from human activities, that such a policy is in develop- including fire suppression, graz- ment. ing, , and planting. Fire is, of course, a natural el- Uncharacteristically high fuel lev- ement of many wildlands. Forests are accumulations els create the potential for fires that are uncharacter- of combustible organic matter that can be set ablaze istically intense. Millions of acres in western North by lightning, a lit cigarette or match, or even sun- America harbor these unprecedented fuel stores, al- light focused through a lens. First to ignite are fine though the total is probably less than the 190 million fuels such as needles, leaves, and twigs, but as acres identified in the Bush administration’s Healthy heat accumulates, the bigger fuels such as shrubs and Forests Initiative. start to burn. If fuels are sufficient and envi- A national forest fire policy should cover every ronmental conditions, especially wind, are suitable, aspect of : Managing fuels within forests the fire will torch, move into tall tree canopies, and and landscapes; fire suppression; and, ultimately, sal- spread from tree to tree, producing a crown fire. Many vage and restoration treatments after wildfire. Cur- of the fires that raged in the western United States rently in the United States, individual land manage- during the summer of 2003 and in previous summers ment agencies such as the Forest Service and National have been of this most destructive type. Park Service have established fire policies and mod- A substantial amount of scientific evidence in- ify them periodically. But these are largely within- agency policies that have not been subject to public debate and review. Fire suppression activities on the Jerry F. Franklin ([email protected]) and James K. Agee local and national levels are coordinated among gov- ([email protected]) are professors in the College of For- ernment organizations through formal agreements. est Resources, University of Washington, Seattle. Because of the different missions of these agencies,

FALL 2003 1 interagency policies are largely procedural checklists scale spatial analysis of fuels and potential fire of actions that collectively constitute agency-specific regimes that has serious deficiencies as the primary fire management policies and goals. basis for identifying forests that are vulnerable to un- De facto 20th-century national fire policy fo- characteristic intense fires. cused primarily on fire suppression rather than on A comprehensive national forest fire policy the full array of relevant management tactics. Dur- should consider all aspects of wildfire management, ing the past 40 years, some deviations from these not just fuels and fire suppression. This policy needs policies have emerged, chiefly the adoption of natu- to deal with long-term management of fuels and wild- ral fire and prescribed burning programs, particularly fire and consider the full range of ecological and so- in national parks and areas. But aggres- cial values, including issues related to forest health sive suppression policies have continued to domi- and the well-being of communities and people. Fire nate. Indeed, they have actually been reinforced as and fuel policy should also be an integral part of an a result of large intense fires that have invaded places overall vision for stewardship and management of where people live. As a universal panacea, however, the nation’s forests. suppression has failed. So the policy focus has shifted To be rational and effective, this fire policy to another “universal” solution: the reduction of for- should be grounded on scientific principles and data. est fuels via physical removal or prescribed burning. Relevant scientific information already exists on three Current efforts to develop national policies on essential topics. First is knowledge of pre-European fuels and fire include the administration’s initiative settlement fire patterns in the major forest types and and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (H.R. 1904), regions of North America. Second is the effects of which the House of Representatives passed in the human activities on fuels and normal fire frequency. summer of 2003 to implement the administration’s The third is , including tree regeneration proposal. However, these efforts focus on the short- and succession after wildfire. term treatment of forest fuels rather than on devel- We have identified several scientific issues that oping a comprehensive national policy on fuels and should be considered in developing a national forest fire management and identifying the scientific and fire policy. Some of these issues, such as prescrip- social elements of such a policy. tions for fuel treatments and landscape-level plan- Most of the provisions of the administration ini- ning, are not appropriately considered at the level of tiative and H.R. 1904, for example, deal primarily national policy, but they are scientific and technical with reducing requirements for environmental anal- issues that need to be understood by those developing yses of fuel treatment projects, limiting public ap- and debating national policy. Our objective is to make peals, and requiring prompt judicial response to legal clear that there is a large base of scientific knowledge challenges. These are procedural matters and do not available for developing a national forest fire policy. address substantive issues such as where, how, and why fuel projects are to be conducted. The assumption All forests are not alike appears to be that if we free resource managers from The coastal of the Pacific Northwest and the procedural constraints, they will make the appropriate arid pine forests of the Southwest are not compara- decisions about where, how, and why. Other elements ble ecologically and present quite different opportu- of the proposals deal with important but peripheral nities and social risks. Why should they be governed issues, such as attempts to increase the value of forest by similar policies? The starting point for any rational by creating biomass markets. fire policy is recognition that different forest types These efforts contribute little to either a definition and regions vary widely in their characteristic or nat- of or a long-term commitment to a comprehensive ural fire patterns. A science-based fire management national policy on forest fuels and fire management. policy must accommodate this variability. They also address few of the scientific and technical Before effective fire suppression began early in elements underlying management programs. Indeed, the 20th century, many forests of ponderosa pine and the forest condition classification used in these ini- mixed in western North America were sub- tiatives to identify forests at risk is a modeled coarse- ject to frequent low- to moderate-intensity fires; fire

2 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOREST FIRES

return intervals of three years to and on south slopes and stand-re- two or three decades were com- placement fires on north slopes and mon. Fire suppression programs Neither fire higher elevations. have been so effective that they suppression nor have allowed the fuel loads in Differentiating forest these forests to accumulate to lev- treatment of forest community types els that create the potential for pre- Some have argued that it is im- viously unknown intense stand-re- fuels should be seen possible to address forest variabil- placement fires, which kill all or as a universal ity in devising national policy. Sci- most of the large trees. ence-based stratifications are too Stand-replacement fires are panacea. complex to be comprehended and characteristic of many other west- incorporated into legislation ap- ern and boreal forest types, how- propriately, they say. We say that it ever. Pacific slope forests of Dou- is not only possible but also im- glas fir and associated species in perative to recognize local varia- the Pacific Northwest are an outstanding example; tions and fundamental differences among forest types stand-replacement fires typically occur at intervals as a part of national policy. of 250 to 500 years in these forests. Most of the sub- Fortunately, there is already a national classifi- alpine or high mountain forests of western North cation of forest types that incorporates characteris- America—composed of , true fir, and lodge- tic fire patterns and fuel loadings and can be used as pole pine—are also of this type. Fire suppression pro- the basic stratification for implementing fire man- grams have not modified fuel loads and fire patterns agement policies. This is the comprehensive plant significantly in these forests. Indeed, fuel treatments association or habitat type classification system de- sufficient to modify fire behavior in these forests veloped for wildlands by scientists in federal agencies. would produce very unnatural forest . For There are hundreds of individual plant associations, example, treating fuels to eliminate stand-replace- but these are easily gathered into a much more limited ment fires in coastal Douglas fir forests would result number of plant association groups (PAGs) that have in forests that no longer provided suitable habitat for comparable fire patterns and appropriate fire man- northern spotted owls and many other old-growth- agement policies. A particular strength of the PAG related species. classification is that it is just as relevant for national These differences in typical fire patterns among policies as it is for a resource manager planning a forest types should influence fire suppression as well fuels management program within a local watershed. as fuel treatment policies. Active efforts to suppress This classification can also be applied to other con- fire can be appropriate in forests subject to stand-re- tentious issues, such as management of old-growth placement fire, particularly where important resources forests, where it can provide a solid scientific basis for are at risk. will often be inap- policy decisions. propriate, however, in forest types that were charac- Transient conditions, such as classifications of teristically subject to frequent low- to moderate-in- fuel loadings, are not appropriate as the primary basis tensity fire levels. for developing and applying fire policies. An example Variability in forest fire patterns can be very local is the wildland fire and fuel management spatial data as well as regional, and fire policies must recognize set and current condition classification recently pub- that. Many forest landscapes, particularly in western lished by the Rocky Mountain Research Station in North America, are actually mosaics of forests with Fort Collins, Colorado. This is a coarse classifica- contrasting fire patterns. Forest conditions and char- tion that was never intended for use at a local level. acteristic fuel loadings, fire patterns, and suppression The five classes created to represent historical fire policies may differ sharply on adjacent north and regimes also do not accurately portray conditions or south slopes or at different elevations in the same risks in at least some forest regions, most notably river valley, with low-intensity fires at low elevations western Washington and northwestern Oregon. The

FALL 2003 3 use of condition classes such as fuel loadings is most been followed by programs that recreate appropriate as a secondary stratification within the the dense young forests, providing the potential for yet PAG classification. another stand-replacement fires. A final important point is that, contrary to what Fire management programs should also address one might expect, fire suppression has not necessarily the ability of a stand of trees to persist through a fire had the greatest impact on fuel accumulations on sites and to recover after one. Effective prescriptions for and in forest types that historically have had the most fuel treatments must, therefore, include both the frequent fires. After a century of fire suppression, a amounts and spatial distribution of the fuels and the forest belonging to the Ponderosa pine PAG may be retention of the most fire-resistant trees. There are many fire-return intervals outside its historical range— four key elements to consider: surface or ground fuels, perhaps 100 years without wildfire, where the histor- fuels, overstory canopy density or continuity, ical pattern was a fire every 5 to 10 years. But the ef- and large trees of fire-resistant species. National leg- fects of 100 years of suppression on amounts and islation is not likely to address technical details such arrangements of fuels and the potential for an un- as these, but individuals debating and formulating characteristic stand-replacement fire actually may be fire policy should at least know what kind of stand much greater in a mixed forest belonging to the treatments actually influence fire behavior. Tradi- white fir PAG, which is only three or four intervals tional commercial logging activities are focused on outside its normal fire cycle of 10 to 60 years. This the removal of large saleable trees, not the amount is because the white fir site is much more productive and arrangement of these fuel elements. than the Ponderosa pine site, resulting in more rapid The potential effectiveness of a proposed pro- fuel accumulations and the development of white fir ject to reduce fuels and alter fire patterns can be fire between ground and crown fuels. Historic judged by whether the treatment deals with at least fire-return intervals are therefore not always the best one or preferably all three of the fuel elements: sur- basis for setting fuel treatment priorities. face fuels, ladder fuels, and canopy density. Surface fuels include grasses, shrubs, and tree seedlings, as Uncharacteristic patterns well as litter and woody debris on the forest floor. The uncharacteristic live and dead fuel loadings, fire Surface fuels are removed primarily to reduce po- behaviors, and fire effects that the United States has tential flame lengths to acceptable levels. Ladder experienced in the past few years are not just the re- fuels typically consist of small and intermediate-sized sult of fire suppression. They are also the result of trees, and treatment is aimed at reducing the ability of human activities including grazing, logging, and plant- fires to move from the ground into the crowns of ing dense strands of trees after green or salvage log- large trees. Overstory canopy density influences the ging. The importance of these human activities varies ability of a fire to spread through the tree crowns, so with locale. Many sites have been affected by multi- the goal is to increase the spacing between them. ple activities that are often synergistic in their effects. The scientific consensus is that large and old trees Programs to correct these conditions probably also should generally be retained, especially fire-resistant need to vary. species such as . Indeed, from an ecological per- Humans create uncharacteristic fuel loadings spective these are absolutely the last trees that should both actively and passively. With production be removed. Large and old trees are the most likely to as a primary management objective, have survive a fire and subsequently serve as focal points established dense, fully stocked forest stands on sites for recovery. Large and old trees are also critical formerly occupied by open stands with fewer trees. In wildlife habitat, in part because they are the source national forests on the western slopes of the Sierra of the standing dead trees (snags) and logs where an- Nevada, thousands of acres of open forests domi- imals live. Large old trees are essentially irreplace- nated by old-growth pine have been converted to able because they take centuries to reach that state. dense single-age during the past 50 years. There is no agreement, however, on how best to In many areas throughout western North America, incorporate the retention of large and old trees into uncharacteristic stand-replacement have policy and regulation. Proposed approaches have in-

4 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOREST FIRES

cluded diameter limits (cut no tree likely to improve fuel loadings sig- larger than “x”), age limits (cut no nificantly or alter potential fire be- tree older than “x”), and leaving Although there is a havior for the better. Such opera- the top “x” percentile of the largest tions are not focused on the key trees in the stand. large base of ground and ladder fuels, and they One complication is that the scientific knowledge also contribute additional ground definition of a large and old tree and ladder fuels in the form of de- varies because of differences in available for bris called slash. On the other species and site productivity. developing a hand, effective fuel removal is ex- Hence, large-tree retention guide- pensive when high densities of lines need to accommodate site- national forest fire ground and ladder fuels exist, be- to-site variability. Here, once again, cause at least some of them have to the PAGs can help provide appro- policy, it is largely be removed, burned, or otherwise priate site-based guidelines. ignored in current treated. Project costs can often ex- Another complication is that ceed $1,000 per acre for an initial removing large trees is sometimes policy proposals. fuel treatment. Logging of small necessary to achieve overall fuel trees will rarely cover even the di- treatment goals. Relatively large rect costs of fuel treatments be- trees of shade-tolerant species such cause such trees currently have lit- as white fir (those 21 inches or tle economic value and are likely more in diameter at breast height) have developed to have even less in the future. Hence, subsidizing on many productive mixed-conifer sites since fire fuel treatments by selling medium-sized trees that suppression programs were instituted a century ago. need to be removed anyway seems appropriate, given These trees often provide the fuel ladders that put the scale of the challenge and the desire to reduce old-growth pine or giant sequoia trees at risk, as well the impact on taxpayers. as increasing overall stand canopy densities. Both conditions greatly increase the potential for stand-re- No magic bullet placement fires. Restoring characteristic fuel load- An effective national policy on forest fuels and fire ings and wildfire behavior, to say nothing of pre- management requires sustained long-term programs scribed burning programs, often requires removal of involving several treatments. Today’s conditions have some of these larger but relatively young trees. been developing for more than a century and generally Retaining large and old trees is one of the most cannot be corrected with a single treatment. In a stand contentious ecological issues in the current debates with significant fuel accumulations, for example, an over fuel reduction programs. Environmentalists often initial prescribed burn will typically generate addi- view large tree removal as motivated by economic tional fuel. A burn kills trees and shrubs but often goals rather than ecological objectives; a potential does not consume them; instead, it turns them into wedge for the resumption of large-scale commercial dead fuel. Relatively prompt follow-up treatment, logging on public lands. Other participants in the de- such as a second prescribed burn, may be needed to bate, including the current administration, view the re- eliminate the new fuel. moval of large trees as necessary to pay for expensive Fire management programs require repeated treat- fuel treatments and to provide wood to support local ments that are planned and implemented at appropri- industries. Many managers view the issue simply in ate spatial scales. Forests will continue to regenerate terms of balancing effective fuel treatments with other and, in the process, accumulate fuels, sometimes (as in ecological or economic objectives. the moist mixed-conifer zones) at high rates. Fuel Logging as a part of fuel treatment programs is an treatments and prescribed burns must be at a suffi- issue that deserves serious consideration by every- cient scale to affect the behavior of the fire. Studies of one in the forest fire policy debates. On the one hand, recent fires such as the 1994 Wenatchee fires in Wash- traditional commercial logging operations are un- ington and the 2002 Hayman fire in Colorado show

FALL 2003 5 that small treated areas surrounded by areas with high ings, back within the range of conditions that existed fuel loadings and potential firestorms often do not before the fire suppression policy began. The wild- survive, let alone significantly affect overall fire be- land/development interface is an exception; man- havior. Designing treatments as part of a strategic agement goals there relate to human health and wel- landscape plan also is critical. One example is locating fare rather than the health and welfare of the forest. fuel breaks so as to limit fire spread and serve as an- But it is high time to consider desired future con- chor points for more widespread prescribed fire. ditions that are unprecedented but ecologically sus- National policy must also take into considera- tainable. Restoring forests to an approximation of their tion the fact that human habitation and development state in the 19th century may be appropriate in some are increasingly intermixed with forests, making them areas, but fire management policies need to consider a potentially vulnerable during wildfires. The wild- broader spectrum of possibilities. Today’s fragmented land/development interface is emphasized in current landscapes and aggressive introduced organisms mean policy initiatives. However, fuel treatments of forests that 19th-century conditions can never be replicated outside this interface are necessary to prevent signif- precisely, although they might be approximated. icant losses of forest attributes that are important to In addition, people prize forest attributes that are society, such as wildlife habitat and watersheds. Large different from those of the past. They may value con- areas of the Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest, for ditions that were not part of the presettlement forest, example, are likely to experience uncharacteristic such as abundant browse for wildlife. They may abhor stand-replacement fires without active fuel treatments some normal presettlement conditions, such as perva- and prescribed burning programs, with the resulting sive smokiness. Some of these desires may be mutually loss of critical watershed and habitat for the Califor- exclusive, but others may be achievable and sustainable. nia spotted owl and other endangered wildlife. Sub- Thus, it is inappropriate to base management stantial restoration efforts will be needed outside of goals exclusively on some previous real or hypothe- the wildland/development interface to protect them. sized condition, particularly outside of wilderness Some participants in fire management policy de- and other natural areas. Since we can’t go home again, bates argue that wildland forests can and should be we must think seriously about working toward forests left to “natural” restorative processes. Unfortunately, that differ, sometimes significantly, from those of the today’s ecological and social conditions differ greatly past. The potential for defining and evaluating alter- from past conditions, making many fires and their native sustainable goals and, ultimately, managing consequences undesirable. Large unnatural accumu- to achieve the ones people want, is improved greatly lations of fuels result in fires of unprecedented in- by rapid recent expansions in scientific understanding tensity; and exotic plants, pests, and pathogens alter of the natural history of species, forest ecosystems, recovery processes dramatically, further modifying landscapes, and disturbances. a landscape in which critical habitat for native biodi- versity is already severely limited. Nature will “cor- After the fire rect” the unstable conditions that humans have created What are appropriate restoration treatment policies in the fire-prone wildlands, but the new landscape after a fire? The topic is contentious, involving mat- will not resemble presettlement forests. Letting nature ters such as timber salvage and seeding or planting of take its course in the current landscape is certain to re- plant cover. But there, too, significant new scientific sult in losses of native and knowledge can be of help. functions and other social benefits. Natural forest disturbances, including fire, kill trees but remove very little of the total organic matter. No back to the future Combustion rarely consumes more than 10 to 15 per- The goals of restoration—sometimes described as a cent of the organic matter, even in stand-replacement “desired future condition”—are often based on a hy- fires, and often much less. Consequently, much of pothesized “natural” condition that existed before the forest remains in the form of live trees, standing European settlement. The objective is to bring for- dead trees, and logs on the ground. Also, many plants est composition and structure, including fuel load- and animals typically survive such disturbances. This

6 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOREST FIRES

includes living trees, individually will suffer from competition with and in patches. seeded grasses. These surviving elements are From an ecological Decisions regarding planting biological legacies passed from the perspective, large, trees need to be based on ecologi- predisturbance ecosystem to the cal and economic objectives as regenerating ecosystem that comes older, fire-resistant well as characteristics of the for- after. Biological legacies are cru- est type. Where timber production cial for ecological recovery. They trees are the last is a primary objective and dense may serve as lifeboats for many ones that should be forest stands are characteristic, species, provide and other in- reestablishing plantations of com- ocula, and enrich the structure of removed in any fuel mercial tree species is often ap- the regenerated forest. Large old treatment or post- propriate. However, establishment trees, snags, and logs are critical of dense forests is inappropriate wildlife habitat and, once removed, fire restoration where they did not exist before. take a very long time to replace. program. Doing so simply recreates the po- Management of postburn tential for uncharacteristic fuel areas, including timber salvage, loadings and fires. Such a naturally needs to incorporate the concept unsustainable condition is only ap- of biological legacies. Salvaging propriate if there is a serious long- dead and damaged trees from burns involves the ecol- term commitment to managing the site for intensive ogy of a place, not simply economics and fuels. In timber production. But this does not apply to many addition to effects on postfire wildlife habitat, there federal forests where intensive is are also effects of on soils, sediments, neither consistent with ecological goals nor econom- water quality, and aquatic organisms. Significant sci- ically sound. entific information exists on this topic as well as on to reestablish closed forest cover on biological legacies. burned sites also may be a bad idea, depending on Biological legacies differ by orders of magni- ecological objectives. Large disturbed areas, which tude in natural forests, a fact that should guide restora- regenerate slowly and include complete legacies of tion programs. Where stand-replacement fires are snags and logs, are often hotspots for regional bio- characteristic, such as with lodgepole pine and Pa- diversity. The unsalvaged and unplanted areas dev- cific Coast Douglas fir forests, massive areas of stand- astated by the 1980 volcanic eruption of Mount St. ing dead and down trees are usual; salvage opera- Helens, for example, possess extraordinarily rich tions generally are not needed and do not contribute to communities of birds, amphibians, and midsized ecological recovery, even though they do provide mammal predators. Aggressive timber salvage and economic return. On the other hand, uncharacteris- tree planting programs dramatically limit both the tic stand-replacement fires in dry forests can produce biological potential and the duration of this early suc- uncharacteristic levels of postfire fuels, including cessional stage. standing dead and down trees. Removing portions of In short, postfire treatment policies such as tim- that particular biological legacy may be appropriate as ber salvage, seeding, and replanting should incorpo- part of an intelligent ecological restoration program, rate current scientific findings, especially about how and not simply as salvage. forest ecosystems recover from natural disturbances. Policies regarding artificial revegetation after We do not want to create new problems or perpetuate wildfires, such as seeding grasses or other plants and old ones by salvaging too much or too little or by es- tree planting, also need to be based on credible current tablishing dense new plantations on burned sites science. There are many tradeoffs. Seeding to pro- where timber production is not a primary objective. vide rapid protective cover may interfere with natural There is one way in which current administra- recovery and introduce exotic plants. Native plants tive and legislative efforts, typified by the adminis- that regenerate from seed rather than by sprouting tration’s Healthy Forests Initiative and HR 1904, do

FALL 2003 7 set fire policy. They assume that we will treat forest fire patterns, and they do not recognize that fire pol- fuels in the wildland/development interface to reduce icy needs to accommodate this variability. Most fun- loss of structures and life. Although there is no stated damentally, however, the initiatives set no goals for a national policy on dealing with fires in these inter- comprehensive national forest fuel and fire manage- mixed landscapes, there has long been a de facto pol- ment policy or for the long-term commitments nec- icy in the United States and that human de- essary to implement such a policy. velopments interspersed among wildlands will be protected from fire. In some mixed landscapes, re- Recommended reading quirements for safer building materials and clearing James K. Agee, of Pacific Northwest vegetation away from houses are emerging, but it is Forests (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1993). not clear who will enforce these rules or how. The Health Forests Initiative at http://www.fs.fed.us/ assumption that human settlements will be protected projects/hfi/. no matter where they are has deep roots in history David B. Lindenmayer and Jerry F. Franklin, Con- and is even backed by some case law, as in the pro- serving Forest Biodiversity: A Comprehensive tection of Southern California houses on - Multiscaled Approach (Washington, D.C.: Island covered hillsides. Press, 2002). But aside from this underlying assumption, these Kirsten M. Schmidt et al., Development of Coarse- proposals fail to incorporate most of the elements Scale Spatial Data for Wildland Fire and Fuel that we have identified as the basis for a scientifi- Management, USDA Forest Service General cally credible forest fuels and fire management policy. Technical Report RMRS-87 (Fort Collins, Colo.: They do not take account of the variability of natural Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2002).

8 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY