eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Jose Information from NHC Advisory 16A, 8:00 AM AST Sat September 9, 2017 On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 145 mph Position Relative to 160 miles E of the Northern Speed: (Category 4) Land: Leeward Islands Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 944 mb Coordinates: 17.8 N, 60.7 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 140 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 305 degrees at 13 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Jose continuing west- northwest. To illustrate the uncertainty in Jose’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the by tonight. ■ Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from to and 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and . This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Jose Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Jose

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area – is in effect for , St. Martin, St. Barthelemy. A Tropical Storm Warning – which means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area – is in effect for and Anguilla, and St. Eustatius. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for British Virgin Islands, St. Thomas and St. John, and .

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 TS Katia Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Jose 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/09/17) 11 6 3 Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2017 TS Irma 8 TS Harvey (1/1/16 – 09/09/17) 8 4 1 2016 year to date TS Gert HU Katia 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Franklin TS Emily Hu Jose 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 4 TS Don HU Irma HU Harvey TS Cindy Major HU Jose 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Jose is the tenth named storm, fourth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average 201 7 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw eight named storms four occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 9. Jose became the season’s fifth named hurricane on September 06. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season A is located several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has increased September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days since yesterday, and some gradual development of this system is possible during the with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 9 is 55% for all hurricanes and 51% for next few days while it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. major hurricanes. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

50% Contact us

Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl40% Matt Nicolai

roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected]

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20%

10%

0% 2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec