2018 3rd International Conference on Society Science and Economics Development (ICSSED 2018) ISBN: 978-1-60595-031-0

Study on the Coupling Coordination of Real Estate and Urbanization in Province Yijia Penga and Qi Yinb,* （College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, 611130） [email protected], [email protected]

Keyword: The Development of Real Estate Industry; The Development of Urbanization; Principal Component Analysis; Coupling Coordination

Abstract: Based on the cross-sectional data of 21 cities in Sichuan Province, this paper establishes the coupling coordination degree between the two models. Through principal component analysis, it makes a comprehensive score ranking for the real estate industry and urbanization development, and further studies the coupling coordination status. The results show that the real estate and urbanization system in Sichuan is far from a benign resonance state. The average degree of the coupling coordination between the two cities is at a barely acceptable transition zone, and most cities have different levels of real estate lags behind. This paper makes the following policy recommendations: improving the long-term mechanism of urban land use, making good use of the precise poverty alleviation policy, improving the quality of urbanization development, and accelerating the exploration and development of the harmonious and interactive development mechanism between real estate industry and urbanization.

1. Introduction In 2016, new urbanization is the only way to modernization and is an important engineering of the people's livelihood. Promoting the traditional urbanization development path and development mode, new urbanization has become an important impetus for economic transformation and sustainable development in our country in the future. As a material carrier of urban development, 's real estate industry has developed rapidly in the process of urbanization. Calculated according to the international monetary fund, China's real estate investment as a share of GDP rose from 7.39% in 2003 to 14.18% in 2015 and residential investment as a share of GDP increased from 4.93% to 9.55%, so the growth is very obvious. On the mutual relationship between urbanization and real estate industry, especially the house price, some research results exist and all researches can be divided into qualitative and quantitative two aspects. In terms of the qualitative research, the representatives of scholars, Wang Yufei[1] and Meng Qingbin[2] have basically confirmed the relationship between urbanization and real estate development in China. In terms of quantitative aspects, scholars like Xie Fuquan[3] used various metering methods to analyze the correlation and causality of the two. However, due to the differences between the indicators, data and models, there is no consistent conclusion in many aspects. It can be seen that most of the research objects remain at the national level, not enough attention is paid to regional differences, the research on the internal mechanism of the interaction between urbanization and real estate industry is not sufficient and in-depth and the level and degree of interaction between the two are not discussed and analyzed in detail. In this context, we should pay more attention to the degree of coupling coordination between the two.

2. Model construction, variable selection and data source 2.1 The calculation of the comprehensive development level of real estate and urbanization In this paper, the principal component analysis method (Principal Component Analysis, Hereinafter referred to as PCA method) is used to quantitatively evaluate the comprehensive development of the

267 two systems after the standardization of indicators in the reference of Liu Yaobin [4]. The comprehensive development level of the two systems is calculated by using the comprehensive evaluation function. The calculation formula is 푎 푏 f(푥) = ∑푖=1 푤푖푥푖 푔(푦) = ∑푗=1 푤푗푦푗 (1) Among them, f(x) and g(y) are the comprehensive development level of the real estate industry system and the urbanization system respectively. Xi is the standardized value of each index of the real estate industry system, and yj is the standardized value of each index of the urbanization system, Wi and wj corresponding index weight. 2.2 The coupling coordination degree model of real estate industry and urbanization The degree of coupling is used to describe how the system or elements interact with each other[7]. It defined as the coupling of the real estate industry and urbanization as well as reflects the degree of coordination between real estate and urbanization. Defining the coupling degree between real estate industry and urbanization: 1/2 C = 2{(푓(푥) × 푔(푦)) ÷ [(푓(푥) + 푔(푦))(푓(푥) + 푔(푦))]} (2) You can see that the coupling value C is between 0 and 1. When C approaches 1, the larger the coupling degree between the two systems, the system will tend to the new ordered structure. When C approaches 0, the smaller the coupling degree of the two systems, it will develop into disorder. Based on the existing research results[4], this paper will measure the quantitative indicators of the development level of real estate industry and urbanization as the coupling coordination degree. 퐷 = (퐶 × 푇)휃 (3) 푇 = 훼푓(푥) + 훽푔（푦） (4) D is the coupling coordination degree; C is the coupling degree; T is the comprehensive evaluation index of real estate industry and urbanization, reflecting the overall benefit or level of the two. θ，α，β are the undetermined parameters, usually 0.5. 2.3 The coupling coordination degree evaluation standard of real estate and urbanization Based on the existing research results, the coordination degree is divided into three types according to the measurement results of the coordination degree (D value) and the type is shown in table 1. Each type of coordination degree can also be subdivided into different levels of coordination and then, according to the comparison of comprehensive evaluation index f(x) and g(y) between the real estate industry and the urbanization, each level can be divided into different types. The details are shown in table 2. Table 1. Classification of coupling coordination. type of coordination degree coordination degree interval coordination level [0.9,1] high quality coordination [0.8,0.89] good coordination class of coupling coordination [0.7,0.79] moderate coordination [0.6,0.69] primary coordination [0.5,0.59] barely coordination class of transition [0.4,0.49] on the verge of disorder [0.3,0.39] mild disorder [0.2,0.29] moderate disorder class of disorder depression [0.1,0.29] severe disorder [0,0,09] extreme disorder

268 Table 2. Relationship and basic types of f (x) and g (y). the relationship between f(x) and g(y) the ownership type f(x) > g(y) g(y)/f(x)>0.8 urbanization lags behind 0.60.8 real estate lags behind f(x) < g(y) 0.6

3. Empirical analysis 3.1 The comprehensive evaluation score of real estate industry and urbanization All the data in this paper is from the statistical yearbook of Sichuan province in 2015.The coupling and coordinated development of real estate system and urbanization system involves social and economic aspects. On the basis of comprehensiveness, scientificity, operability, and data availability, by comparing the analysis of existing literature and the connotation of urbanization. Firstly, this paper selected indicators shown in table 2 to comprehensively measure the comprehensive development level of real estate industry and urbanization, and then standardized the collected data. Secondly, using SPSS to do the main ingredient analysis on the processed data and to get the weight (the results are shown in table 2. Lastly, the comprehensive evaluation scores of real estate industry and urbanization are obtained by using formula (1) and are sorted. The results are shown in table 3. Table 2. Weights and Indicators.

the evaluation target the evaluation index the weight

Proportion of urban population（%） 0.1373 The population density(Man/km2) 0.0573 The proportion of the tertiary industry (%) 0.1012 GDP per capita（yuan） 0.1394 Comprehensive The output of the tertiary industry accounts for the proportion of GDP 0.0853 development level of （%） urbanization Urban fixed investment（One hundred million yuan） 0.1332 Local general public budget revenue（Ten thousands yuan） 0.1079 Every ten thousand people have the number of college students 0.1276 （man/ ten thousands men） Private car ownership（the amount） 0.1107 Annual GDP（One hundred million yuan） 0.0979 Urban per capita disposable income.（yuan） 0.0772 Real estate investment and development 0.0984 （One hundred million yuan） Urban per capita housing construction area (m2) 0.0606 Comprehensive Residential sales price (yuan/m2) 0.0791 development level of New floor area for building construction (10,000 square meters) 0.0989 real estate industry Construction area (10,000 m2) 0.1002 Completion area of the house (ten thousand square meters) 0.0978 Number of real estate development enterprises（ge） 0.0980 Real estate employees (10,000 people) 0.0929 Commercial housing sales (hundred million yuan) 0.0990

269 Table 3. Scoring and ranking of cities (states).

urbanization the ranking of urbanization real estate composite real estate region comprehensive score development score development ranking

Chengdu 0.9982 1 0.9500 1 0.2556 6 0.1283 12 0.4113 2 0.0983 19 0.1625 13 0.2518 2 0.3822 3 0.1506 9 0.2734 4 0.1505 10 0.1508 15 0.1057 15 Suining 0.1731 11 0.1543 8 0.2194 7 0.1007 17 0.2610 5 0.1258 14 0.1717 12 0.1894 3 0.1869 10 0.1821 5 0.1424 17 0.1544 7 Guang 'an 0.1558 14 0.1452 11 0.1454 16 0.1278 13 Yaan 0.2191 8 0.1015 16 0.1156 19 0.0996 18 0.1260 18 0.1842 4 Aba 0.1879 9 0.0919 20 Ganzi 0.0528 21 0.0733 21 3.2 Measurement of coupling coordination According to formulas (3) (4) (5), the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and real estate industry and relevant indicators in 21 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan province are calculated （Shown in table 4). At the same time, according to the calculation results of table 4 and the classification of the coupling coordination system and judging standard of table 1, evaluation results of coupling coordination between urbanization and real estate industry in 21 cities (states) in Sichuan province were shown in table 4. Table 4. Evaluation results of coupling coordination.

region f（x） g（x） D value coordinated development type

Chengdu 0.9500 0.9982 0.9880 high quality coordination real estate industry lag type

Zigong 0.1283 0.2556 0.4326 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

Panzhihua 0.0983 0.4113 0.4620 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

Luzhou 0.2518 0.1625 0.4449 the lag type of urbanization on the verge of disorder

Deyang 0.1506 0.3822 0.5003 the lag type of real estate industry reluctant to coordinate

Mianyang 0.1505 0.2734 0.4568 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

Guangyuan 0.1057 0.1508 0.3584 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Suining 0.1543 0.1731 0.4054 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

Neijiang 0.1007 0.2194 0.3926 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Leshan 0.1258 0.2610 0.4331 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

Nanchong 0.1894 0.1717 0.4236 the lag type of urbanization on the verge of disorder

Meishan 0.1821 0.1869 0.4298 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

270 Yibin 0.1544 0.1424 0.3843 the lag type of urbanization in mild imbalance

Guang 'an 0.1452 0.1558 0.3886 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Dazhou 0.1278 0.1454 0.3704 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Ya'an 0.1055 0.2193 0.3932 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Bazhong 0.0996 0.1156 0.3288 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Ziyang 0.1842 0.1260 0.3866 the lag type of urbanization in mild imbalance

Aba 0.0919 0.1879 0.3687 the lag type of real estate industry in mild imbalance

Ganzi 0.0733 0.0528 0.2474 the lag type of urbanization in moderate imbalance

Liangshan 0.1758 0.0956 0.3547 the lag type of urbanization in mild imbalance

mean 0.1784 0.2327 0.4262 the lag type of real estate industry on the verge of disorder

3.3 Results analysis According to table 3, we can drew a conclusion that the real estate industries of Chengdu, Guangyuan, Ganzi Tibetan autonomous region, Bazhong, Guang 'an and Dazhou match the ranking of urbanization development. Almost all other cities in the rankings have bigger difference. In view of the comprehensive score ranking for the development of the real estate industries, Chengdu has a large score ahead. Luzhou, Nanchong and Ziyang, which form the second echelon on the score, have a large difference in the score and a small gap from the lower ranked cities although the ranking is on the top of the list. The fact that among Panzhihua, Aba Tibetan and Qiang and Ganzi Tibetan autonomous prefecture, the cities in the last of the ranking, the fact that Panzhihua ranked in 19 in the comprehensive ranking of real estate development is worthy of local attention. In terms of the overall ranking of urbanization development, Chengdu remains the first place and Panzhihua is ranked second in the comprehensive score ranking of urbanization development, with Deyang, Mianyang, Leshan, Zigong as the second echelon. Overall, Chengdu has a very high comprehensive score for both real estate and urbanization while Ganzi Tibetan autonomous region scored worst in both categories ,which is inseparable from the background of the city's advantaged provincial capital and its social, economic and policy conditions are vastly superior to those of other regions. However, the low score of Ganzi Tibetan autonomous region is related to the local geographic location, social and economic basis as well as nomadic habits of ethnic minorities. According to table 4, the average coordination degree in the 21 prefecture-level cities and autonomous prefectures in Sichuan province is 0.42, which makes them belong to the endangered species and in a narrow acceptance range. The city with the highest degree of coordination between real estate and urbanization is Chengdu, and the lowest is Ganzi Tibetan autonomous region. The coordination degree of Chengdu and Deyang is above 0.5, which indicates that only Chengdu and Deyang reach the coordination level. In addition, Zigong, Panzhihua, Luzhou, Mianyang, Suining, Leshan, Nanchong and Meishan belong to the class on the verge of disorder. Guangyuan, Neijiang, Yibin, Guang 'an, Dazhou, Ya 'an, Bazhong, Ziyang, Aba Tibetan and Qiang autonomous prefecture and Liangshan Yi autonomous prefecture belong to the mild disturbance category. Deyang is affected by the radiation of Chengdu. And although the comprehensive score of the real estate industry is only the ninth place, it is in harmony with the development of urbanization. In addition, Ganzi ranked the worst in the comprehensive score of real estate and urbanization, and the coupling coordination degree of the two systems was also the last one. From the coordination type, except that Chengdu belongs to a kind of coupling coordination, the other cities are in transition, and the coordination level is not very ideal. It can be seen that the coordinated development and coordination degree of the real estate industry and urbanization in Sichuan province has crossed the acceptable range in turn—forced acceptance interval. The level is still in a relatively extensive state, and the overall coordination is not high, showing a "strong" and numerous "weak" situation. The

271 scope of influence of the "pole" radiation in Chengdu needs to be expanded. For the rest mild disorders cities such as Guangyuan, Bazhong, Aba prefecture and Liangshan prefecture cities, due to its low level of economic and social development, its urbanization has already begun to accelerate but it is difficult to return and its development quality and quantity will take a long time to complete. As a result, the economic development of the cities is relatively backward, and the market demand is not enough. The development of the real estate industry cannot keep up with the development of urbanization. According to the comparison between the real estate system f(x) and the urbanization system g(y), the real estate system index of 16 cities in 21 cities in Sichuan province is significantly lower than the urbanization system index, indicating that although the acceleration of urbanization in most cities in Sichuan province has brought great demand to the real estate market in recent years, the scale of real estate investment in various cities shows a rapid development trend. However, compared with the development rate of population urbanization and land urbanization, the development of real estate industry still lags behind. Due to the lagging development of real estate industry, the supply of real estate market cannot meet the huge demand of rapid urbanization, which is not only difficult to improve the living standards of urban residents and also can cause the sharp rise in house prices, increasing the difficulty of low-income groups in the housing, so as to produce certain negative impacts on the development of urbanization

4. Policy suggestions China's urbanization process is in the stage of rapid development, and urbanization and real estate development are interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Real estate promotes the development of urbanization, and urbanization also affects the development of real estate. The government should gradually improve the relevant market system and support laws and regulations through macro-control and lever adjustment so as to promote the development of the real estate industry and the new type of urbanization in China. 4.1 Improving the long-term mechanism of urban land use The development of real estate and urbanization cannot be separated from land use. The real estate industry is completely dependent on the land, and its development speed, scale and quality are determined by land use. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a rational and healthy land use long-term mechanism. First, we need to improve the land expropriation and land transaction market supervision mechanism and improve the level of land management. Regulations should be strengthened to avoid "grey market" and "rent-seeking". Secondly, in the land transaction market, it is necessary for government departments to improve the land exchange reserve system, properly regulate the scale of land transfer, and balance the supply and demand of real estate. Meanwhile, it will improve the supervision mechanism of real estate enterprises and strengthen the health guidance for real estate consumers. Finally the government should actively strengthen the transformation of the old cities and villages inside cities, revitalize the stock of land and enhance the overall land utilization of the city. 4.2 Take advantage of targeted poverty alleviation policies to improve the quality of urbanization development We will make good use of poverty alleviation policies in poverty-stricken areas, innovate poverty alleviation mechanisms, and guide the peasants to gather orderly to the town to maximize the poverty alleviation benefits. At the same time, we should plan the urban infrastructure construction. According to the requirements of optimizing the productivity and population distribution, we should improve the basic facilities and construction of the town, water supply, electricity, gas, garbage disposal as well as cultural and sports facilities, improving the comprehensive service functions of the town. Guiding peasants to shift from primary industry to the second and third industry, because most of the migrant labor forces will naturally flow into the lower employment threshold jobs such

272 as those related to real estate. So the reasonable guide arrangements of government can not only improve the quality of urbanization but also "city presses to produce," doing the rise of a town and driving an industry. 4.3 Exploring the development mechanism of harmonious interaction between real estate industry and urbanization First, we should guide the healthy development of real estate to promote the development of urbanization. We will develop a market dominated by housing consumption and increase the force of housing construction while further sublimating reform of the household registration system, promoting the "rent and purchase" policy and working to improve the living conditions of the general population. Moreover, we need to maintain reasonable development speed and scale of urbanization and real estate, pay attention to avoid social problems such as resource exhaustion, environmental pollution, traffic congestion and other social problems caused by excessive urbanization. At the same time, we should also realize that the rapid development of real estate will lead to rising prices and increase of vacancy rate of real estate. Finally, it is necessary to introduce policies to stimulate the development of real estate industry and the coordinated development of industry.

References [1] Wang Yufei, Leng Zhiming, Ding Ruxi. China's New-type Urbanization and Real Estate Market Development and Transformation—New Urbanization and Real Estate Development Academic review, Economic Research, 2016(2):181-185. [2] Meng Qingbin, Huang Qinghua and Zhang Nengkun. Urbanization, Regional Development Imbalance and Real Estate Prices, Economic Theory and Management, 2017(2):72-80. [3] Xie Fuquan, Hu Xiuteng, Liu Zhen. Research on the Correlation Degree between Urbanization and Real Estate Industry, Shanghai Economic Research, 2017(2):72-80. [4] Liu Yaobin, Li Rendong and Song Xuefeng. Correlation Analysis of Coupling between Urbanization and Ecological Environment in China, Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(2):237-247.

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