SRA Study in Kattegat and Øresund

Flemming T. Hansen and Asbjørn Christensen, DTU Aqua Frank Stuer-Lauridsen, LITEHAUZ

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 1 A-4 Exemptions G7 Risk Assessment Country A Same Risk Area Same Risk Area

Country B Country C

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 2 The SRA exemption process • Risk assessment following G7 • Species-specific and environmental matching • SRA natural dispersal • Hydrographic model (agent based connectivity) • Biological characteristics • Habitat mapping

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 3 SRA target species

• 85 target species – 39 HELCOM/OSPAR tool – 7 Danish list – 39 Aquanis • 23 species shortlisted – Biological characteristics

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 4 Selection criteria - for species to be included in the marine connectivity study

EXCLUDED IF… : • Species with the entire life cycle in the water column • MIS witch are already widely distributed and fully established in the Kattegat and Øresund region. (e.g. Acartia tonsa, Mya arenaria) • Species with no or very limited salinity tolerance < 10 psu (e.g. Dreissena bugensis) • Macro algae, macrophytes and highly mobile species

=> Total of 23 species Target species data

Survival Temperature Min-Max (C ) Pelagic Larvae Duration Min-Max (days) Time to Maturity Min-Max (months) Spawning Start-End (month) Reproduction Temperature Min-Max (C ) Reproduction Salinity Min-Max (psu) Habitat Depth Max (m) 23 target species traits data Hydrographic data which year(s) to include?

2005 2010 2012

NAO = North Atlantic Oscillation! Definition: “…the seasonal average air pressure difference between stations, e.g. Azores and Reykavik” Analysing Natural Dispersal and Connectivity Same-Risk-Area Assessment Model

PHYSICS Ocean currents Ocean temperature Ocean salinity

BIOLOGY Larval duration Spawning season Habitat Tolerance temp Tolerance salinity Vertical distribution

9 Dispersal probabilities

Connectivity 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 11 Interpretation of results Connectivty

Dispersal potential 1,2,3 Habitat conditions 1,2,3 Pressence status - / + / ++ Robustness 1,2,3 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø

= No 1 Low - = Not registerd = Low 2 Medimu + = Registrered = high 3 High ++ = Widely distributed

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 12 Arcuatula senhousia

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 14 PLD (max) days 55 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 7 Spawning end month 8 Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m 20 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 33 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 17 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 35 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 22.5 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 30 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 17 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 30 Arcuatula senhousia Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 13 Arcuatula senhousia Single generation dispersal Muliple generation dispersal

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 15 Asterias amurensis

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 41 PLD (max) days 120 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 6 Spawning end month 10 Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m 220 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 25 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 41 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 17 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 20 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 41 Asterias amurensis Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 16 Austrominius modestus

Parameter

Dispersal potential 1 Habitat conditions 1 Pressence status 1 Robustness 1 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 17 Bugula neritinatus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 2 PLD (max) days 0.5 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 7 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 10 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 25 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 30 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 12 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 26 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 14 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 32

Dispersal potential 1 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 18 Bugulina simplex

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 1 PLD (max) days 1 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 7 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 20 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 25 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 40 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 0 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 25 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 40 Bugulina simplex Dispersal potential 1 Habitat conditions 1 Pressence status - Robustness 3 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 19 Callinectes sapidus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 31 PLD (max) days 49 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 5 Spawning end month 8 Habitat Substrate type Mud, Sand Habitat Depth m 36 Temp. Min (Adult) C 5 Temp. Max (Adult) C 30 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 3 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 40 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 15 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 25 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 20 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 40 Callinectes sapidus Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status + Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 20 Crassostrea gigas

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 21 PLD (max) days 28 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 7 Spawning end month 8 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 15 Temp. Min (Adult) C 3 Temp. Max (Adult) C 35 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 12 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 42 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 18 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 26 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 10 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 42 Crassostrea gigas Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status ++ Robustness 3 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 21 Didemnum vexillum

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 0.5 PLD (max) days 1 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 7 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 65 Temp. Min (Adult) C 2 Temp. Max (Adult) C 28 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 40 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 14 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 20 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 18 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 40 Didemnum vexillum Dispersal potential 1 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status - Robustness 3 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 22 Ensis americanus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 14 PLD (max) days 21 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 3 Spawning end month 4 Habitat Substrate type Mud, Sand Habitat Depth m 12 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 26 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 7 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 32 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 2 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 28 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 15 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 32 Ensis americanus Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status ++ Robustness 2 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 23 Eriocheir sinensis

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 30 PLD (max) days 60 Generations per year no.s 0.5 Spawning start month 3 Spawning end month 7 Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m 10 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 25 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 0 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 30 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 12 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 35 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 15 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 32

Eriocheir sinensis Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status + Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 24 Ficopomatus enigmaticus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 20 PLD (max) days 25 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 7 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type hard Habitat Depth m 10 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 30 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 5 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 40 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 18 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 26 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 10 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 30 Ficopomatus enigmaticus Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status + Robustness 2 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 25 Hemigrapsus sanguineus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 16 PLD (max) days 55 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 5 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type Sand, Hard Habitat Depth m 40 Temp. Min (Adult) C 5 Temp. Max (Adult) C 30 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 15 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 33 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 15 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 30 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 20 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 35 Hemigrapsus sanguineus Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status + Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 26 Hemigrapsus takanoi

Parameter

Hemigrapsus takanoi Dispersal potential 1 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status + Robustness 1 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 27 Hydroides dianthus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 5 PLD (max) days 14 Generations per year no.s 2 Spawning start month 6 Spawning end month 10 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 200 Temp. Min (Adult) C 5 Temp. Max (Adult) C 30 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 28 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 50 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 12.5 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 20 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 25 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 50 Hydroides dianthus Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 28 Laonome calida

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 1 PLD (max) days 1.5 Generations per year no.s ? (1) Spawning start month ? (7) Spawning end month ? (8) Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m ? (40) Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 30 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 0.1 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 35 Temp. Min (Larvae) C ? Temp. Max (Larvae) C ? Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU ? (0.1) Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU ? (35) Laonome calida Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 1 Pressence status - Robustness 3 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 29 Marenzelleria viridis

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 28 PLD (max) days 49 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 9 Spawning end month 11 Habitat Substrate type Mud Habitat Depth m 65 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 25 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 1 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 32 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 15 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 25 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 5 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 20 Marenzelleria viridis Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status ++ Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 30 Mytilopsis leucophaeata

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 6 PLD (max) days 14 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 5 Spawning end month 10 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 40* Temp. Min (Adult) C 5 Temp. Max (Adult) C 37 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 0 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 20 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 13 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 27 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 1 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 25 Mytilopsis leucophaeata Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 31 Mytilus galloprovincialis

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 14 PLD (max) days 28 Generations per year no.s 3 Spawning start month 6 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type Sand, Hard Habitat Depth m 40 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 31 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 12 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 38 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 15 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 25 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 10 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 38

Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 32 Palaemon macrodactylus

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 15 PLD (max) days 20 Generations per year no.s 6 Spawning start month 4 Spawning end month 10 Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m 40 Temp. Min (Adult) C 2 Temp. Max (Adult) C 26 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 1 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 36 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 15 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 27 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 1 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 34

Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 33 Potamocorbula amurensis

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 14 PLD (max) days 21 Generations per year no.s 2 Spawning start month 5 Spawning end month 10 Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m 30 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 30 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 0.1 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 32 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 6.4 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 23 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 0.1 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 27.6

Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 3 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 34 Rangia cuneate

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 7 PLD (max) days 7 Generations per year no.s 0.5 Spawning start month 5 Spawning end month 10 Habitat Substrate type Mud, Sand Habitat Depth m 15 Temp. Min (Adult) C 1 Temp. Max (Adult) C 29 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 1 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 15 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 8 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 30 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 2 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 20

Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 35 Rapana venosa

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 14 PLD (max) days 80 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 4 Spawning end month 11 Habitat Substrate type All Habitat Depth m 40 Temp. Min (Adult) C 4 Temp. Max (Adult) C 27 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 7 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 32 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 13 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 26 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 15 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 30

Dispersal potential 3 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status - Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 36 Rhithropanopeus harrisii

ParameterParamter Unit Value PLD (min) days 7 PLD (max) days 43 Generations per year no.s 1 Spawning start month 6 Spawning end month 9 Habitat Substrate type Hard Habitat Depth m 37 Temp. Min (Adult) C 0 Temp. Max (Adult) C 35 Salinity Min (Adult) PSU 5 Salinity Max (Adult) PSU 30 Temp. Min (Larvae) C 14 Temp. Max (Larvae) C 27 Salinity Min (Larvae) PSU 5 Salinity Max (Larvae) PSU 30 Rhithropanopeus harrisii Dispersal potential 2 Habitat conditions 2 Pressence status + Robustness 3 13/12/2018 Connectivity: KØ N S W E Ø OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 37 Same Risk Area Assessment

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 38 13/12/2018 Arcuatula senhousia Arcuatula Asterias amurensis Asterias Austrominius modestus Austrominius Crassostrea gigas Crassostrea Callinectes sapidus Callinectes Bugula neritina Bugula Bugulina simplex Bugulina Didemnum vexillum Didemnum Eriocheir sinensis Eriocheir Ensis directus Ensis Ficopomatus enigmaticus Ficopomatus Hemigrapsus sanguineus Hemigrapsus Hemigrapsus takanoi Hemigrapsus Hydroides dianthus Hydroides Marenzelleria viridis Marenzelleria Laonome calida Laonome Mytilopsis leucophaeata Mytilopsis Mytilus galloprovincialis Palaemon macrodactylus Palaemon Potamocorbula amurensis Potamocorbula Rangia cuneata Rangia Rapana venosa Rapana Rhithropanopeus harrisii Rhithropanopeus

SPECIES 3 3 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 3 2 Dispersal potential 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 2 Habitat conditions ++ ++ ++ + + + + + + - - 1 ------Pressence status 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Robustness KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ KØ Kattegat & Øresund OSPARHELCOM TG Ballast N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Northern Kattegat Connectivity S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S Southern Kattegat W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W Western Kattegat E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E Eastern Kattegat Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Øresund yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no no no no no Helcom/Ospar Target species ++ ++ ++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + - + - - ? ? ? - attaches to hull parameters assessment Same-Risk 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 ? 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 Impact potential ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversity,ecosystem, infrastr. fouling ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversity, fouling ecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, fouling ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, fouling biodiversity ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversity, fouling ecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversity, fouling ecosystem, fouling, fishing gear fishing fouling,

Impact type 39 Same Risk Assessment

• High Connectivity Same (or No) Risk

• Low (or No) connectivty – But already widely distributed – Registered many years ago and not yet Same (or No) Risk invasive – Ballast water not the primary vector

• Low (or No) connectivty – Not introduced – Newly registered May pose additional RISK – Ballast water primary or major vector

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 40 13/12/2018 Arcuatula senhousia Arcuatula Austrominius modestus Austrominius Asterias amurensis Callinectes sapidus Callinectes Ficopomatus enigmaticus Ficopomatus gigas Crassostrea Hemigrapsus sanguineus Hemigrapsus Mytilus galloprovincialis viridis Marenzelleria dianthus Hydroides takanoi Hemigrapsus Palaemon macrodactylus Rapana venosa Rapana Rhithropanopeus harrisii Rhithropanopeus Species with high with Species

SPECIES Same 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 Dispersal potential 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3

Habitat conditions Species connectivity ++ ++ + + + + - - - ? - - - - Pressence status - Risk 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 Robustness OSPARHELCOM TG Ballast that Kattegat & Øresund Connectivity Northern Kattegat *

Southern Kattegat DO NOT Assessment Western Kattegat Eastern Kattegat Øresund pose a yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no Helcom/Ospar Target spcies Same-Risk assessment parameters assessment Same-Risk ++ ++ risk + + + + + + + + + - - ? attaches to hull 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 Impact potential ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversity,ecosystem, infrastr. ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversity, fouling ecosystem, ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, fouling ecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, biodiversityecosystem, biodiversity ecosystem, biodiversity, fouling ecosystem, fouling, fishing gear fishing fouling,

Impact type 41 Species that MAY pose a risk Connectivity Same-Risk assessment SPECIES species Øresund Robustness Pressence status Same Risk rating Dispersal potential conditions Habitat Attaches to hull Eastern Kattegat Impact potential Western KattegatWestern Northern KattegatNorthern Southern Kattegat Kattegat & Øresund Kattegat Øresund & Helcom/Ospar Target

Bugula neritina 1 2 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø no ++ 1 Bugulina simplex 1 1 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø no + 1 Didemnum vexillum 1 2 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø yes ++ 3 Ensis directus 3 3 ++ 2 KØ N S W E Ø yes - 1 Laonome calida 2 1 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø no ? ? Mytilopsis leucophaeata 2 2 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø yes + 3 Potamocorbula amurensis 3 3 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø yes - 3 Rangia cuneata 1 1 - 3 KØ N S W E Ø yes ? 3 Rhithropanopeus harrisii 2 2 + 3 KØ N S W E Ø yes + 2

= Same Risk may be justified in the whole of Kattegat and Øresund = Same Risk may be limited to parts of Kattegat and Øresund 13/12/2018 42 Interpretation: Same Risk Area Delineation Species that MAY pose a risk STRICT The limited SRA delineation based solely on connectivity

INCLUSIVE A less limited SRA delineation typically supported by limitations based on traits

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 43 SRA - Bugulina simplex

Strict interpretationSRA Inclusive interpretation

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 44 SRA - Bugulina simplex

Strict interpretation: - Connectivity is highly limited except Øresund.

Inclusive interpretation: - Most of Kattegat and Øresund sub-optimal conditions - Low impact - Not on Helcom/Ospar target species list - Attach to hull - Not registered 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 45 SRA - Laonome calida

Strict interpretation Inclusive interpretation

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 46 SRA - Laonome calida

Strict interpretation: - Limited connectivity due to low PLD (1 day) - Habitat is large - Habitat is uncertain – if lest extent then connectivity more limited - High impact - Very little know about the species

Inclusive interpretation: - If habitat is well represented connectivity is low but existing - Adult salinity tolerance range is uncertain - Larval salininty tolerance range uncertain - Not yet recorded (however in Netherlands, Rhine, and Baltic Sea) - Not on the HELCOM/OSPAR target species list 13/12/2018 - Taxonomy is uncertainOSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 47 SRA - Mytilopsis leucophaeata

Strict interpretation Inlcusive interpretation

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 48 SRA - Mytilopsis leucophaeata

STRICT interpretation: - Connectivity is highly limited except Øresund and SE Kattegat. - On the HELCOM/OSPAR list - High impact - Registered adjacent marine areas

INCLUSIVE interpretation: - Sub-optimal adult salinity conditions in ALL Kattegat and Øresund - Limited east-west connectivity may be uncertain - PLD range from 6 -14 days - In Europe since 1835, in North Sea and Baltic Sea in relation to freshwater outlet. - Not registered Kattegat-Øresund 13/12/2018 - Attach to Hull OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 49 SRA - Potamocorbula amurensis

Strict interpretation Inclusive interpretation

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 50 SRA - Potamocorbula amurensis

Strict interpretation: - Limited connectivity in the E-W direction in Kattegat - High impact potential - On the HELCOM/OSPAR target species list.

Inclusive interpretation: - Not been registered. - PLD range from 14 - 21 days - E-W connectivity limited but existing - Kattegat at the edge of upper tolerance limit for larvae

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 51 SRA - Rangia cuneate

Strict interpretation Inclusive interpretation

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 52 SRA - Rangia cuneate

Strict interpretation: - Connectivity is highly limited except Øresund - Shallow areas in the central Kattagat are not considered because of its location at the edge of the expected salinity thresholds for population - High impact. - SRA include Øresund and areas outside the larval dispersal range

Inclusive interpretation: - Sub-optimal salinity conditions in ALL Kattegat and Øresund - Dispersal potential is moderate - Species is not registered in the region

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 53 SRA - Rhithropanopeus harrisii

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 54 SRA - Rhithropanopeus harrisii

Strict interpretation: - Connectivity in the whole of Kattegat is uncertain - Habitat may be overestimated - Established south of Øresund - On the HELCOM/OSPAR target species list

Inclusive interpretation: - PLD may be considerably longer - Hull fouling as a contributing vector - Recorded in Copenhagen area since 1957 and only recently established locally - The dispersal potential in general is reported as moderate - The impact potential in general is reported as moderate 13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 55 Conclusions • Six species may be scrutinized for posing a risk in an SRA in Kattegat and Øresund

• Whole of Kattegat & Øresund as an SRA may be justified, but depends on what is ”acceptable risk”?

• With SRA it is possible to apply a systematic and transparent approach

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 56 Thank you

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 57 Additional data Population genetics of Sea grass (Zostera marina)

Jahnke et al. 2018

13/12/2018 OSPAR HELCOM TG Ballast 58