VOLUME 2, ISSUE 21 JANUARY 14 – 20, 2020

POWERED BY SPORTS.DRF.COM

KANSAS CITY AFC WHO NFC TITLE WILL TITLE PEACH BOWL 12.31.15 REACH FIESTA BOWL 12.31.15 GAME MIAMI? GAME

Inside:HANDICAPPING INSIGHT AND PICKS FOR NFL CONFERENCE GAMES

TENNESSEE GREEN BAY DRF SPORTS FORM

ISSUE #21 • JANUARY 14 - JANUARY 20, 2020

NFL Top Statistical Edges 2 NFL Best Bets / StatFox Staff Selections 3 StatFox NFL Power Rating Lines 3 StatFox NFL Outplay Factor Rating Lines 3 AFC Championship Game Breakdown 4 NFC Championship Game Breakdown 4

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STATISTICAL EDGES

Below is a listing of the top team statistical edges when compared head-to-head with their conference championship game opponents.

OFFENSIVE STATISTICS DEFENSIVE STATISTICS OFF / DEF DIFFERENTIAL

Points Scored PPG Points Allowed PPG Scoring Differential PPG 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +6.0 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +0.9 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +6.9 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +4.5 2. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +0.2 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +4.4

Rushing Yards Gained RYPG Rushing Yards Allowed RYPG Rushing Yards Differential RYPG 1. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +47.4 1. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +17.6 1. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +65.0 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +34.5 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +12.2 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +46.8

Yards Per Rush Gained YPR Yards Per Rush Allowed YPR Yards Per Rush Differential YPR 1. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +0.8 1. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +0.7 1. TENNESSEE (at KANSAS CITY) +1.5 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +0.3 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +0.2 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +0.5

Passing Yards Gained PYPG Passing Yards Allowed PYPG Passing Yards Differential PYPG 1. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +75.4 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +67.4 1. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +104.1 2. GREEN BAY (at SAN FRANCISCO) +3.1 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +28.6 2. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +64.2

Yards Per Pass Attempted PYA Yards Per Pass Allowed PYA Yards Per Pass Differential PYA 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +1.3 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +1.7 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +3.0 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +0.1 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +0.5 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +0.6

Total Yards Gained TYPG Total Yards Allowed TYPG Total Yards Differential TYPG 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +31.4 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +79.6 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +111.0 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +28.0 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +11.1 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +39.1

Yards Per Play Attempted YPP Yards Per Play Allowed YPP Yards Per Play Differential YPP 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +0.5 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +1.3 1. SAN FRANCISCO (vs. GREEN BAY) +1.8 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +0.1 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +0.6 2. KANSAS CITY (vs. TENNESSEE) +0.7

2 / DRF Sports Form DRF SPORTS FORM

PRESENTS THE WEEK’S BEST BETS

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES: JANUARY 19, 2020 StatFox StatFox StatFox StatFox StatFox StatFox TIM GARY SCOTT BRIAN FORECASTER CONSENSUS LINE • (313) at (314) -7½ KANSAS CITY (BB) KANSAS CITY TENNESSEE KANSAS CITY (BB) TENNESSEE KANSAS CITY • AFC Championship Game Over/Under 52 OVER 52 UNDER 52 OVER 52 OVER 52 OVER 52 OVER 52 • (311) at (312) -7 SAN FRANCISCO GREEN BAY (BB) GREEN BAY (BB) SAN FRANCISCO SAN FRANCISCO SAN FRANCISCO • NFC Championship Game Over/Under 45 OVER 45 UNDER 45 OVER 45 UNDER 45 OVER 45 OVER 45

2019-20 NFL STAFF PICKS STANDINGS

All Games W L T Pct Last Week Best Bets W L T Pct Last Week

StatFox Tim 131 126 7 51.0% 2-2 StatFox Scott 38 48 3 44.2% 1-1

StatFox Brian 127 130 7 49.4% 2-2 StatFox Brian 38 49 2 43.7% 1-1

StatFox Gary 124 133 7 48.2% 1-3 StatFox Gary 34 52 3 39.5% 0-2

StatFox Forecaster 117 140 7 45.5% 2-2 StatFox Tim 34 53 2 39.1% 0-2

StatFox Scott 117 140 7 45.5% 1-3

StatFox Consensus 115 142 7 44.7% 1-3

POWER RATINGS OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS

The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs several key StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings have proven over the years to be factors, including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. Addition- an excellent indicator of team strength: They provide a quantitative measure of ally, our exclusive home-field advantage points are built into each home team’s how teams are outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are rating and corresponding line. The ratings are not as reactive as those found determined by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a great long-term handicapping tool. for and points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared.

KEY: OL Opening Line KEY: OL Opening Line PR StatFox Power Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating (adjusted for home-field advantage) PRL Calculated Power Rating Line OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Line Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line EdgeThe difference between the Power Rating Line and the actual opening line and the actual opening line W/L Keep track of the winners and losers W/L Keep track of the winners and losers

Sunday - 1/19, 3:05 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sunday - 1/19, 3:05 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 313 TENNESSEE TITANS 32 4½ 313 TENNESSEE TITANS 27 314 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7½ 35 -3 314 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7½ 35 -8 ½

Sunday - 1/19, 6:40 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sunday - 1/19, 6:40 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 311 GREEN BAY PACKERS 24 1 311 GREEN BAY PACKERS 24 312 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7 30 -6 312 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7 32 -8 1 StatFox.com Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content

DRF Sports Form / 3 DRF SPORTS FORM AFC Championship Game TENNESSEE KANSAS CITY TITANS CHIEFS LINE: KANSAS CITY BY 7½

• (313) TENNESSEE TITANS (SU: 11-7, ATS: 10-7-1) at (314) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (SU: 13-4, ATS: 12-5) - Sunday, 1/19/2020 at 3:05 PM

TEAM OFFENSE (2019-20 PER-GAME AVERAGES) TEAM DEFENSE (2019-20 PER-GAME AVERAGES) PDIF SS PPG FD RUSHING PASSING TOTAL FUM-INT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING TOTAL FUM-INT TOD TENNESSEE +5.2 19.9 25 20 29–147 (5.1) 17–27–208 (7.8) 56–355 (6.3) 0–0 20 21 26–109 (4.2) 24–39–258 (6.7) 65–367 (5.6) 1–1 +10 KANSAS CITY +9.6 20.3 30 22 23–99 (4.2) 24–36–283 (7.9) 59–382 (6.5) 1–0 20 22 26–126 (4.9) 23–37–229 (6.1) 63–355 (5.6) 0–1 +8

KC is 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in its L10 games vs. TEN BETTING SYSTEM: Underdogs of between 3½ and 10 points - off back-to-back road wins, good team, winning DATE HOME LINE SU RESULT ATS WIN O/U 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (6-26 ATS) 11/10/19 TEN +5½ KC 32 at TEN 35 TEN O (49) Play = KANSAS CITY against the spread 1/6/18 KC -8½ TEN 22 at KC 21 TEN U (44½) 12/18/16 KC -6 TEN 19 at KC 17 TEN U (42½) STATFOX POWER TRENDS: 9/7/14 KC -3 TEN 26 at KC 10 TEN U (45½) • KANSAS CITY is 19-8 ATS against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. 10/6/13 TEN +2½ KC 26 at TEN 17 KC O (38) • KANSAS CITY is 29-14 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons. 12/26/10 KC -4 TEN 14 at KC 34 KC O (42½) • KANSAS CITY is 22-9 ATS after a win against the spread over the L3 seasons. 10/19/08 KC +9 TEN 34 at KC 10 TEN O (35) • KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS after back-to-back wins against the spread over the L3 seasons. 12/16/07 KC +3½ TEN 26 at KC 17 TEN O (34½) • TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog since 1992. 12/13/04 TEN -2 KC 49 at TEN 38 KC O (52) • TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog since 1992. 9/10/00 TEN -9 KC 14 at TEN 17 KC U (37½) • TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS away after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over L2 seasons.

Tennessee Titans 25 Forecaster Kansas City Chiefs 28 NFC Championship Game GREEN BAY SAN FRANCISCO PACKERS 49ERS LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 7

• (311) GREEN BAY PACKERS (SU: 14-3, ATS: 11-6) at (312) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (SU: 14-3, ATS: 10-6-1) - Sunday, 1/19/2020 at 6:40 PM

TEAM OFFENSE (2019-20 PER-GAME AVERAGES) TEAM DEFENSE (2019-20 PER-GAME AVERAGES) PDIF SS PPG FD RUSHING PASSING TOTAL FUM-INT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING TOTAL FUM-INT TOD GREEN BAY +4.0 19.5 24 20 26–112 (4.3) 22–35–233 (6.6) 61–345 (5.7) 1–0 20 20 26–119 (4.7) 20–34–234 (6.9) 60–353 (5.9) 0–1 +12 SAN FRANCISCO +10.9 20.0 30 21 32–147 (4.6) 20–29–230 (7.9) 61–377 (6.2) 1–1 19 17 24–107 (4.4) 20–32–167 (5.2) 56–274 (4.9) 1–1 +4

SF is 5-5 SU & 5-3-2 ATS in its L10 games vs. GB BETTING SYSTEM: Road teams where the total is between 42½ and 49 points - good team - outscoring opponents DATE HOME LINE SU RESULT ATS WIN O/U by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. (75-35 Over) 11/24/19 SF -3 GB 8 at SF 37 SF U (48) Play = Over the total 10/15/18 GB -9 SF 30 at GB 33 SF O (46½) 10/4/15 SF +7½ GB 17 at SF 3 GB U (48) STATFOX POWER TRENDS: 1/5/14 GB +3 SF 23 at GB 20 Push U (46) • SAN FRANCISCO is 27-14 OVER after back-to-back covers as a favorite since 1992. 9/8/13 SF -5 GB 28 at SF 34 SF O (47) • SAN FRANCISCO is 33-18 OVER after allowing 4 or less yards/play in prior game since 1992. 1/12/13 SF -3 GB 31 at SF 45 SF O (45) • SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 against the 1H line off a home win over the L2 seasons. 9/9/12 GB -6 SF 30 at GB 22 SF O (46½) • GREEN BAY is 18-5 OVER after playing a game at home over the L3 seasons. 12/5/10 GB -9 SF 16 at GB 34 GB O (41) • GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 28 points or more since 1992. 11/22/09 GB -6 SF 24 at GB 30 Push O (42) • GREEN BAY is 266-214 OVER in all lined games since 1992. 12/10/06 SF -4 GB 30 at SF 19 GB O (44) • GREEN BAY is 19-7 OVER away in January games since 1992.

Green Bay Packers 18 Forecaster San Francisco 49ers 28 4 / DRF Sports Form