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Planetary Vision 2050 Workshop 2017 (LPI Contrib. No. 1989) 8236.pdf

MARS EXPLORATION SCIENCE IN 2050. B. L. Ehlmann1,2 S.S. Johnson3, B. Horgan4, P.B. Niles5, E.S. Amador6, P.D. Archer7, Jr., S. Byrne8, C.S. Edwards9, A.A. Fraeman2, D.P. Glavin10, T.D. Glotch11, C. Hardgrove12, P.O. Hayne2, E.S. Kite13, N.L. Lanza14, M.G.A. Lapotre1, J. Michalski15, M. Rice16, A.D. Rogers10 1Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology ([email protected]), 2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 3Dept. of Biology/STIA, Georgetown University, 4Dept. of , Atmospheric, & Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, 5NASA Johnson Space Center, 6Dept. of Earth & Space Sciences, University of Washington, 7Jacobs, NASA Johnson Space Center, 8Lunar & Planetary Laboratory, University of , 9Dept. of Physics & , Northern Arizona University, 10Solar System Exploration Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 11Dept. of Geosciences, Stony Brook University, 12School of Earth and , , 13Dept. of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 14ISR-2, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 15Dept of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, 16Western Washington Univ.

A Look Forward to 2050: In 2050, the authors will be 60- deeply coupled to fundamental questions of its evolution, 75, at the end of long careers in exploration. In 2050, a embedded in Questions 1-2. Nonetheless, chemical and week of mission ops work could be working via virtual physical processes that lead to uninhabited habitats are —not just with rovers and orbiters—but with Mars astro- equally important for understanding the prevalence of life in nauts, either present on Mars or based on Earth and prepping the . for a future mission. Mars may have conducted HEOMD strategic knowledge gaps: Human exploration one or more sorties and brought samples back to Earth for of Mars requires deeper understanding about the ’s examination in terrestrial labs. Mars astronauts may also physical environment in addition to new technical capabili- assist in operating robotic explorers on Mars: monitoring ties. For instance, key knowledge gaps for both NASA- weather and seismology, drilling the polar and extracting sponsored and commercial human exploration include a) the for chemical and measurements, imaging the availability of water resources (ice, hydrated , at- surface, and collecting surface samples and drill cores for mospheric harvesting), b) the extent of weather variability analyses in the habitat. Thus, some of the Mars (e.g., ), c) local and thermal tides, which astronauts will work with geologists on Earth (as did Apollo affect the ability to safely, and d) evidence that extant astronauts); others will be working as Mars geologists on-site life is not widespread in surface materials. Key tech- (perhaps some of us). Below we discuss some existing pro- nologies include e) a Mars communication and positioning grammatic aspects and steps to create this 2050 vision. network, f) successful demonstration of a human-scale land- Key Mars science questions for post-2020: Some press- ing system, and g) in situ production of purified and ing questions for ancient and modern Mars can be solved via fueling of an ascent stage. either robotic or human missions; others necessitate robots, Importance of HEOMD-SMD missions, commer- with human explorers providing little added value (Table 1). cial collaboration: At this juncture in 2017, a subset of sci- Table 1. Major open Mars science questions, derived from the ence questions and human exploration needs naturally 2014-2023 NAS Decadal Survey merge, specifically, science questions 1-3 and human- The 4 Major Mars Science Questions Methodology (least to most exploration related knowledge gaps a-d. Synergistic meas- informative, cost not- urement opportunities include: i) refined mapping of hydrat- withstanding) ed minerals at <10m/pixel with improved IR spectroscopy to 1 What are the , ages, and origin High-resolution orbital meas- quantify precise and water abundance, ii) measure- of the diverse suite of geologic units urements, in situ rovers, ments of ice inventories, including in the near-subsurface at and aqueous environments evident robotic sample return, hu- <20m/pixel scale where pole-facing slopes can still be ice- from existing data; what climatic man-facilitated measure- rich at low , iii) a suite of weather-related data, and conditions were they formed under; ments/sampling iv) continued characterization of materials to and were any of them inhabited? determine whether extant life is present as well as identify 2 What is the present climate; is liquid Orbital monitoring, landed potential chemical hazards to astronauts. Barriers exist to water present; how does climate weather station network, HEOMD/SMD/commercial collaboration (cultural, commer- change under timescales of orbital landed measurements, sam- cial-government mixed funding rules, and programmatic variation; is there present- life? ple return budgeting). Nevertheless, the coupling of needed measure- 3 What are the inventory and dynamics In situ rovers, orbital charac- ments makes combined missions a resource-efficient ap- of compounds and trace terization of polar CO2 and proach for the mid-2020s to early 2030s. SMD could take the gases in the and surface; H2O reservoirs, sample lead on some with HEOMD contribution, and vice versa. what processes govern their origin, return, human-facilitated Science and HEOMD payloads, perhaps even including rov- evolution, and fate? measurements ers, can be carried by SpaceX craft. Collaboration to obtain data of mutual interest or a paid berth for investigations 4 What are the internal structure and Landed network seismic and dynamics and how have these heat probe; in situ rovers, (“pay for the ride”) may be appropriate in certain instances. evolved over time? sample return, human- Importance of independent SMD Mars science. Mars facilitated measurements exploration cannot operate solely within the sphere of While upcoming missions like will help to ad- HEOMD, however. The NASA mission of pioneering the dress some of these questions, all will still require further future of space exploration and expanding scientific discov- investigations. The search for is crucial and ery requires a continued focus by SMD on measurements Vision 2050 Workshop 2017 (LPI Contrib. No. 1989) 8236.pdf

that add new knowledge to our understanding of the work- that, like Earth, Mars is diverse. True exploration requires ings of our , Earth, , and the universe. Mars measurement at multiple locales, varying in space and time. occupies a key scientific position, not only to understand This dictates a future mission architecture with many more whether there may have been an independent origin of life, craft to interrogate these locations. One might ask: doesn’t but also to understand the processes governing the fates of this cost more money? Not necessarily. Consider two cases. terrestrial . Such is of heightened importance in light First, modern Mars atmospheric dynamics – tides, dust, tem- of ongoing discoveries of extrasolar rocky planets with at- perature, volatile cycling – can be examined with relatively mospheres and the desire to understand their long-term hab- simple instruments, geared specifically toward these purpos- itability. Although many HEOMD and science-driven meas- es. Multiple identical craft are beneficial because temporal urements overlap, some science questions are fundamentally and spatial resolution provided by diverse are vital, different from those solely in service of exploration. For and they are presently missing. The instruments carried by example, rather than solely “what?” and “how much?”, sci- these multiple crafts would be less expensive than multi- entific questions about a hydrated mineral deposit are also purpose instruments (e.g. THEMIS, TES, and CRISM), “when?”, “how”, and “why?”. Thus, while a subset of meas- which have been designed for geological, polar, and atmos- urements are synergistic, measurements for understanding pheric studies. A mid- orbiter for detailed water re- the timing and processes behind early planetary evolution sources information will likely still precede astronaut explo- fall largely within the province of science and remain crucial ration but the fleet of small sats providing weather infor- to our expanding knowledge. As such, a robotic and sam- mation would also serve as communications relays, populat- pling program at Mars can and should continue, incorporat- ing the Mars system in the 2030s. As infrastructure around ing the enhancements that human capabilities can provide as Mars grows, these “standard” small sats might transition they become available. A notable example is complex sam- away from the science community to commercial space pling techniques, including deep drilling beyond a few me- companies. Second, the highly successful MER rovers were ters to collect samples of and ice. In 2030 and beyond, plural: two distinct sets of science data from two different even as commercial and government human exploration of sites cost less than or equivalent to the single-site Mars 2020 Mars may expand, SMD should play a critical role in design- rover. A similar approach was highly successful historically ing the precursor measurements prior to astronaut explora- (e.g., Mariners, Vikings, Voyagers). Our knowledge of the tion (e.g., the search for life; see below), prioritizing the environmental diversity of ancient Mars has expanded in measurements and extravehicular activities to be made by tandem with advances in instrument miniaturization, mean- astronauts to key locales, and the criteria for human selection ing that even the simple MER-like rovers at multiple sites and return of samples. would enormously expand our knowledge of Mars. By Role for robotic sample return The demonstration of a standardizing the “ bus” (in this case not an orbiter successful launch off of Mars lends credence to the technical but a rover) and requiring instruments to accommodate ability to do the same successfully with much more massive themselves to it, the costly systems-instrument interface human craft. Critically, robotic sample return could facilitate problems on MSL and M2020 can be avoided. These rovers uncontaminated return of samples from Mars special regions, could be sent independently, or coupled with a human pro- where the chance for extant life is highest—in contrast to gram, allowing for the measurement and sampling, con- other terrains for which collection by a human is less likely trolled in semi-real time. Multiple smaller missions also can to interfere with scientific measurement. Return of samples expand participation in Mars exploration, opening it up to to Earth need not be purely robotic: an in Mars- human- many more commercial, international, and academic partici- assisted capture of samples launched off the surface could pants than currently possible. simplify containment verification and safe sample landing on Conclusions: Time is of the essence for developing a syn- Earth. With both commercial and government programs ergistic SMD/HEOMD architecture with regard to Mars oriented toward human exploration, the search for indige- exploration to support humans in coming decades. A collab- nous Mars life, prior to introduction of Earth , orative program could enable the Mars planetary science becomes a scientifically pressing issue that is critical for community to work alongside the engineers developing ena- evaluating the possibility of an independent origin and evo- bling technologies, deepening opportunities for engagement. lution of life on our neighboring planet. Thus, a single or The 2020s could focus on an orbital mapping effort for local- multiple late 2020s/early 2030s sample return, perhaps facili- ized exposures of current and past volatiles (and resources) tated by humans, is a logical exploration step. Sample return as well as astrobiological investigations for extant life, which from multiple sites is preferable. In general, the scientific should be pursued vigorously before humans begin in situ value of sample return is likely to be greater with humans on exploration. This could be accomplished by a mid-size orbit- surface, as semi real-time human decisions are er and multiple small, MER-class rovers with next genera- not likely to be surpassed by advances in machine learning tion instrumentation to meet science needs. The focus in the on the timescale of the next few decades. late-2020s and into the 2030s could shift toward return and Importance of more 2020-2050 Mars science mission analysis of samples from Mars, perhaps facilitated by hu- opportunities: Exploration from orbit has identified hun- mans on a Mars mission, and emplacement of the dreds of key locales of geological significance for under- weather/comm small sat. network. In the 2040s and 2050s, standing ancient Mars, information on volatile cycling and human exploration of the surface would be performed, ena- loss, and important data on daily and seasonal weather by robotic drills, rovers, stations, and instruments, and changes. Orbiters have also identified key resources for hu- include human return of samples, greatly enhancing our ca- man exploration. The last decade of data have demonstrated pacity to carry on outstanding science in the Mars system.