Superior performance in metropolitan areas in and - attention to student counseling?

Kari Nissinen, Ragnar F. Ólafsson, Juhani Rautopuro, Almar M. Halldórsson & Jouni Vettenranta

Northern Lights, Helsinki 28.9.2018 Notable regional differences in PISA 2015 • Both in Finland and in Iceland the capital areas (Helsinki, Reykjavik) significantly outperformed the rest of the country – First time in the Finnish PISA history – Observed in every assessment domain

• In Finland the five regions were based on the former (geographical) NUTS2 regions • In Iceland, instead the geographical division, consider three groups: (1) Reykjavik area (2) towns (3) rural areas Finnish division into regions

FI18 + FI20 = south FI19 = west FI13 = east FI1A = north

Helsinki region (four in the ) separated from the south Icelandic ’regions’ PISA 2015 science scores / Finland 560 554 550

540 532 533 530 522 520 517

510

500 Helsinki Southern Western Eastern Northern region PISA 2015 science scores / Iceland

480 479

475

470

466

465 464

460

455 Reykjavik towns rural areas Factors behind the differences? ’Usual suspects’? – Differences in socio-economic status and cultural capital of families – Differences in parents’ educational level and occupational status – Differences in students’ attitudes, motivation and expectations – Differences in school resources Socio-economic differences / Finland

Z score 0,20

0,15 0,15 0,15 0,13

0,10 0,10

0,05

0,01 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,03 -0,03 -0,03 -0,04 -0,04 -0,05 -0,05 -0,05 -0,05 -0,06 -0,07-0,07

-0,10 Helsinki South West East North socio-econ index # books father's education parents' occup status Socio-economic differences / Iceland

Z score 0,30

0,18 0,18 0,20 0,16 0,10 0,10

0,00

-0,10 -0,14 -0,19 -0,17 -0,18 -0,21 -0,20

-0,30 -0,35 -0,37 -0,41 -0,40

-0,50 Reykjavik Towns Rural socio-econ index # books father's education parents' occup status Motivation differences / Finland

Z score 0,15 0,13

0,09 0,10 0,09

0,05 0,05 0,05 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,00 -0,010,00-0,01 0,00 -0,01 0,00 -0,02-0,02 -0,02 -0,01 -0,03 -0,03 -0,03 -0,03 -0,05 -0,05 -0,06 -0,08

-0,10 Helsinki South West East North expected occup status achieving motivation instrum motivation learning time parents' support Motivation differences / Iceland

Z score 0,20 0,11 0,10 0,10 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,01 -0,02 -0,01 -0,01 0,00 -0,03 -0,06

-0,10 -0,12 -0,19 -0,19 -0,20

-0,30 -0,38 -0,40

-0,50 Reykjavik Towns Rural expected occup status achieving motivation instrum motivation learning time parents' support School-level differences / Finland

Z score 0,20 0,15 0,15

0,10 0,10 0,08

0,05 0,03 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,00 -0,01 -0,01 -0,01-0,01 0,00 -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,04 -0,05 -0,06 -0,06 -0,09 -0,10

-0,15 -0,16

-0,20 Helsinki South West East North disciplinary climate % certified teachers material resources student-teacher ratio School-level differences / Iceland

Z score 0,20 0,14 0,13 0,11 0,10 0,08 0,04 0,05 0,00 -0,06 -0,05

-0,10 -0,18 -0,20 -0,27 -0,30 -0,37 -0,40

-0,50

-0,60 -0,65

-0,70 Reykjavik Towns Rural disciplinary climate % certified teachers material resources student-teacher ratio Prediction of regional differences in science / Finland Helsinki Southern Western Eastern Northern Observed 553,9 532,3 517,2 522,1 533,3 mean score Predicted 554,8 534,4 527,8 521,8 531,5 mean score Relative 0,16 0,40 2,05 -0,06 -0,33 error (%)

Best predictions obtained with three predictors only: 1) socio-economic index ESCS (positive) 2) student’s expected occupational status (positive) 3) number of books at home (positive) Prediction of regional differences in science / Iceland

Reykjavik Towns Rural Observed mean score 478,5 463,9 466,4 Predicted mean score 480,9 467,1 466,4 Relative error (%) 0,50 0,69 0,00

Best predictions obtained with four predictors: 1) number of books at home * (positive) 2) student’s achievement motivation (positive) 3) student-teacher ratio of school (positive) 4) socio-economic index ESCS * (positive)

* Appeared in both Iceland and Finland Controlling background variables / Finland Helsinki Southern Western Eastern Northern Observed mean score 553,9 532,3 517,2 522,1 533,3 Diff. to Helsinki -21,6 * -36,7 *** -31,8 *** -20,6 * Adjusted mean score 530,1 534,0 530,7 530,4 538,7 Diff. to Helsinki +3,9 ns +0,6 ns +0,3 ns +8,6 ns

Adjusting covariates: 1) student’s expected occupational status * 2) socio-economic index ESCS 3) number of books at home

* Makes regional differences non-significant alone! Controlling background variables / Iceland

Reykjavik Towns Rural Observed mean score 478,5 463,9 466,4 Difference to Reykjavik - 4,6 *** -12,1 ** Adjusted mean score 475,3 471,2 477,5 Difference to Reykjavik -4,1 ns +2,2 ns Adjusting covariates: 1) number of books at home * 2) student’s achievement motivation 3) student-teacher ratio of school 4) socio-economic index ESCS

* Makes regional differences non-significant alone! Discussion

• In the both countries regional differences essentially reduce to differences in – families’ socio-economic status and cultural capital (measured with number of books) – students’ expectations or ambitions

Socio-economic status cannot be manipulated, but what about expectations and ambitions? Discussion

• What explains the higher-level expectations and ambitions of capital area students? • Metropolitan regions offer more varied opportunities and role models? – Youngsters can observe a range of careers (requiring education), also outside own family & neighborhood • Could student counseling & guidance widen career perspectives of non-metropolitan students? • In Finland and Iceland guidance is a part of normal school work • Compensate restrictions of neighborhood? • Does guidance reach its goals successfully? Thank you!